Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 08, 2022

Mysteries Of The Failed Rebellion In Kazakhstan

It is still a mystery what forces exactly are behind the rebellion in Kazakhstan. While I had presumed that it was a CIA operation it may have been outsourced to Britain's MI6. There are also still other possibilities.

The action seen over the last few days smelled strongly of a color revolution as typically instigated by the United States. The gangs which attacked police forces, set buildings on fire and stormed places where arms were stored seemed very well trained. They worked in formations and were obviously under someone's command. Some of them seemed to have been trained snipers as some shots hit policemen at longer distances. Three of the policemen killed were beheaded which points to some Jihadi elements. Some are also said to have been foreigner and the size of the total force was estimated as up to a quite high 20,000. This has led to some speculate that these people came from Turkey where President Erdogan has used Jihadis from Syria for his foreign policy purposes. But for who's benefit would he do such in Kazakhstan?

Turkey is of course a member of NATO and will in the end do NATO's bidding. Russia ultimatum to 'keep NATO off Russia's border or else ...' might be reason enough for Washington DC to create trouble at Russia's southern boarder. When the U.S. fled from Afghanistan it tried to get new bases in Central Asia but was denied them by every government in the area. A regime change in Kazakhstan might put someone at the top who would allow a U.S. outpost. But who could that person be?

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was installed in 2019 after the long term leader Nursultan Nazarbayev left under public pressure. But Nazarbayev actually stayed in control until very recently. He gained the title 'First President' and was made Chairman of the National Security Committee (KNB). The capital Astana was renamed Nur-Sultan in his honor.

The person who ran the day to day business of the security committee was Karim Masimov, a stalwart allay of Nazarbayev and a business friend of Joe & Hunter Biden. It seemed that the security forces were not really into a fight when the first gangs became violent. Forces guarding the airport of Almaty, the largest city of Kazakhstan, were allegedly told to leave shortly before a gang of some 50 rebels took over the airport.

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has now taken the leading position of the National Security Committee. Nazarbayev is out. On Friday it was reported that he and his family had left Kazakhstan but his private secretary declared that Nazarbayev, who has not been seen in the public since the end of December, was still in Astana / Nur-Sultan.

Karim Masimov was likewise removed and has now been arrested and charged with treason:

The charges of treason point to the possibility that the KNB chief was involved in a bid to topple Tokayev and seize power.

That theory appeared to receive a semi-official endorsement on January 7, when a well-known commentator and former high-ranking government official went on state television to declare that he had received information that Kazakhstan had been targeted by an “armed rebellion” that amounted to an “attempted coup d’etat.”

Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, a one-time adviser to Nazarbayev, is popularly known by the nickname “the president’s nightingale,” as it was widely understood he would express thoughts Nazarbayev wished to put in the public domain, but with plausible deniability.

By way of evidence for his theory, Yertysbayev told Khabar TV that he had been given information that an order was given to remove the security cordon around the airport at Almaty just 40 minutes before protesters occupied it on January 5. That would likely only have been possible with sanction from the very top.

Tokayev has replaced Masimov at the KNB with Yermek Sagimbayev who was previously the head of the State Protection Service which is tasked with ensuring the president’s security. He is Tokayev's man.

Government media have stopped to use the capital name Nur-Sultan and now just call it 'the capital city'.

If this was an internal coup was it one by Tokayev to remove the Nazarbayev clan and its helpers or did the Nazarbayev attempted a coup against Tokayev?

Another mystery is the arrest of Wild Arman (Arman Dzhumageldiyev), a young mafia boss like figure who seems to have been the leader of the rebellion in Almaty. Wild Arman is popular on social media, runs charities and operates financial pyramid schemes. A quite colorful man.

There is also a similar colorful external figure in the game.

Mukhtar Ablyazov was trained in nuclear physics but became a wild east capitalist after the USSR broke down. He gained a share of the BTA Bank when it was privatized by then President Nazarbayev. He used the bank to gain some $5 billion for himself and in 2009, after some trouble with Nazarbayev, he fled the country. BTA Bank eventually broke down defaulting on some $10 billion of debt with one of its biggest creditor being the Royal Bank of Scotland which was bailed out by the British taxpayer.

As many shady billionaires from the former Soviet Union Ablyazov settled in London and was granted political asylum. He hired several companies with CIA, MI6 and Mossad background to gain material against Nazarbayev and to defend himself from going to prison. Arrest orders against him were out in the Ukraine, Russian and Kazakhstan. Several court cases against him were opened in London. After he had brazenly lied under oath to one British court about the ownership of the $20 million house he lived in a judge sentenced him for 22 months in prison. But Ablyazov would never enter a British jail. He vanished.

He later appeared in Rome and then in France always followed by court cases and arrest notices against him. He always hired several PR firms and lawyers to defend himself. A judge in Britain eventually stopped his extradition to Russia and with the relations between the 'west' and Russia breaking down he was allowed to stay in France.

(The whole, much longer story is told in a 2017 Financial Times weekend piece which is free to read.)

Ablyazov is a perfect example of what Chatham House recently called The UK’s kleptocracy problem:

The growth of London as a centre for financial and professional services coincided with the collapse of the USSR and the rise of post-Soviet kleptocracies in the 1990s. These states and their elites have since become a major source of clients for UK-based services firms and of investors in UK assets.
...
Based on extensive research on the laundering of money and reputations by elites from the post-Soviet successor states, this paper details how the UK is ill-equipped to assess the risk of corruption from transnational kleptocracy, which has undermined the integrity of important domestic institutions and weakened the rule of law. It concludes by calling for the UK government to adopt a new approach to this problem focused on creating a hostile environment for the world’s kleptocrats.

Over the last years Ablyazov has been accused of several regime change attempts in Kazakhstan. He has founded and funded a political party in Kazakhstan which was promptly prohibited.

Two days ago Reuters suddenly started to whitewash the guy by headlining him as 'opposition leader' of Kazakhstan:

The West must pull Kazakhstan out of Moscow's orbit or Russian President Vladimir Putin will draw the Central Asian state into "a structure like the Soviet Union", a former minister who is now a Kazakh opposition leader told Reuters.
...
Mukhtar Ablyazov, a former banker and government minister who is leader of an opposition movement called Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, said the West needed to enter the fray.

"If not, then Kazakhstan will turn into Belarus and (Russian President Vladimir) Putin will methodically impose his programme - the recreation of a structure like the Soviet Union," Ablyazov told Reuters in Russian from Paris. "The West should tear Kazakhstan away from Russia."

"Russia has already entered, sent in troops. CSTO is Russia. This is an occupation by Russia," he said.
...
He said he was ready to go to Kazakhstan to head a provisional government if the protests escalated.

"I would not only return - people keep on asking when I will return and blame me for not returning to lead the protests - but people don't understand how difficult it would be for me to return as Russia has sentenced me to 15 years and Kazakhstan to life," he said.

Ablyazov dismissed suggestions that the West had financed the protests as an attempt to distract attention from the fact that the roots of the protests were domestic.

"I know the Soviet cliche of a Western spy, but I would be happy to be an American or European spy because then we would live like the people in America or Europe - and everyone would laugh," he said. "Sadly the West doesn't help me; the West hinders me."

Well, well well - "Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied."

It was the U.S. embassy in Kazakhstan which had announced details of a planned demonstration by Ablyazov's party on December 16.

Ablyazov is now allegedly in Kiev calling for 'western' sanctions against Kazakhstan.

Ablyazov, with all his stolen money, might well have financed the recent color revolution in Kazakhstan. The British secret service MI6, some of which 'former' agents have worked for Ablyazov, might have had a hand in it. Vladimir Odintsov stitches the line from London over Turkey to Almaty:

The appointment in June 2020 of Richard Moore, a former ambassador to Turkey, as head of MI6, Britain’s foreign intelligence service, was a move to strengthen the British position in the Central Asian theatre. He is not only a stalwart Russophobe, but also a fierce apologist for Great Turania: that is, the success of the pan-Turkist aspiration to create a state uniting the Turkic-speaking peoples in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and even for that matter in the Russian federal republics of the Volga region, the Urals, and the North Caucasus. Richard Moore has long nurtured this project. The key to London’s plans in this area is winning the support of Erdogan, president of the Turkish Republic Erdogan, and the now-head of MI6 worked to realize this aim during his ambassadorship in Turkey in 2014-2018. To this end Moore organized repeated visits to Britain where the Turkish leader met with representatives of its political-military establishment; always supported Erodgan’s course for Turkey in his official statements; and gave backing to his political party.
...
With Moore taking the helm, British intelligence has noticeably intensified its activities in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Both pan-Turkist organizations have tame Islamist groups have been strengthened in order to neutralize the influence of Moscow and Beijing in the region. Turkey’s part in this great game is to serve as a kind of battering-ram for British interests.

One of the 'peaceful protesters' in Kazakhstan has been identified as someone who until recently had lived in Turkey. In a picture he makes the 'Grey Wolf' sign of Turkish fascists.

An MI6 cooperation with Ablyazov and Reuters putting him up as the 'opposition leader' makes perfect sense. Turkey in the mix might well have added to the training of the gangs and the Jihadi elements. Karim Masimov, the former head of the security committee in Astana, may have been bribed to help them or was compromised via his Biden connection. The criminal Wild Arman will have worked for money no matter from where.

That still leaves several open questions.

For one how did Russia know what would happen? Russia's CSTO forces were in the air just 13 hours after Tokayev had requested help from the defense pact. Even a well trained quick reaction force will take more time to pack up, get to the airport and leave. CSTO troops from Belarus, Armenia and Tajikistan were also quite quick. Someone must have given them a warning.

Those CSTO troops are by the way not active in the streets but are guarding bases, airports and government buildings. They relieve Kazakh forces who are now free to fight down the gangs. Gunfire was still heard this morning in Almaty. The operation is continuing.

What was the expected outcome of this whole affair? Burning down some government buildings and killing policemen is not enough for a coup. One needs to go for the head of the beast and there was no known attempt to do that.

For now it looks as if Tokayev is sure to win this. There will be no 'western' sanctions coming as several large 'western' corporations are making good money with recovering resources in Kazakhstan. Would they have to move out in retaliation to sanctions it would be a big win for Russia and China.

This all was a quite predictable outcome. But why then launch this operation at all?

The only answer that makes sense to me is that it was an attempt to divert Russia's attentions from the 'western' threat. As such it has failed.

Posted by b on January 8, 2022 at 18:26 UTC | Permalink

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Interesting to read up on the "opposition party" that the US Consulate fingered on Dec 16 as being behind the demonstration: the "Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan"

It is unashamedly a creation of Ablyazov, but even more interesting is that this "opposition party" was disbanded in 2005 and then reformed in 2017.

Hmmmmm.

I wonder if its dissolution in 2005 and then reconstitution in 2017 marked a change of handlers e.g. Ablyazov's original handlers lost interest/faith/trust in him, and then later someone else decided to dust him off and give him a new coat of paint.

Look, almost like new!

The other interesting thing is that its reconstitution in 2017 means that this color-revolution has been four years in the planning, only to unravel within a week.

Very poor return on someone's investment, I would suggest.

Whoever decided that "Ab's is the guy!" has been pretty amateurish.
So, frankly, it could be anyone: CIA. MI-6. The Kaganate of Nuland.

Probably not Foggy Bottom: Blinkin appears to be genuinely clueless about what is happening.
But, then again, that appears to be his natural state of affairs.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jan 9 2022 5:21 utc | 101

@100 "A total of 4,404 people have been reportedly detained across the country."

Seems mighty low. The last time Ablyazov staged demonstrations (in the 2019 elections) there were over 5,000 arrests.

So either most of them are lying dead in a ditch, or have been "extraordinary renditioned" to Lubyanka for a bit of off-the-books questioning, or.... the report is incorrect.

Maybe all three, who knows at this time?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jan 9 2022 5:26 utc | 102

Erdogan involvement? Why would Erdogan try to destroy a country that is a big part of Organization of Turkic States?

https://move2turkey.com/turkish-countries-will-hold-a-ministerial-meeting-to-discuss-in-kazakhstan/
"The President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Gomert Tokayev, considered that the influence of the “Organization of Turkish States” (formerly the Turkish Council) and its status in the international arena are increasing year after year.

This came in a speech delivered by Tokayev on Friday at the summit of the Organization of the Turkish States, which launched on the “Island of Democracy and Freedoms” off Istanbul, in the Sea of ​​Marmara."

Other than scheduling an emergency meeting of the organisation after the trouble started nothing else seemed to be organised to follow up the violence.
https://move2turkey.com/turkish-countries-will-hold-a-ministerial-meeting-to-discuss-in-kazakhstan/

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 9 2022 5:35 utc | 103

peter... it's like that song by peter paul and mary - where have all the headchoppers gone?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYii6nxhvUk

Posted by: james | Jan 9 2022 5:42 utc | 104

Albertde |96
>”… thought Pashinyan was Soro's man, brought into power via a colour revolution in Armenia”.
Armenia was headed well down the hysterical Ukie-style anti Russia path.
Then he started a war with Azerbaijan- which he lost, badly and rapidly.
He went howling and crying to Moscow and at first got an indifferent hearing.
He’s now owned like a dog on a leash.

Pole vaulting over a lot of details, there now Russian peacekeepers in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh precinct.
The jewel in the crown is the zangezur corridor.
Here’s an item with some background. But dig around for more links, as this is now a hugely important geographical piece in the Great Game.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/the-zangezur-economic-corridor-news-and-developments.730308/

Baku has already started the construction of the Azerbaijani section of the railway to Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan’s landlocked exclave that passes through the recently liberated territories.
The Zangilan district of Azerbaijan will be a transport hub at the crossing point on the borders of Iran, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Therefore, an international airport and highways are planned for construction in Zangilan, giving it hub status.

Oh. Also word mentioning. Israel and Azerbaijan established “ties” as part of the Abraham Accords.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 9 2022 5:44 utc | 105

The gas price rise that triggered the unrest.

I did a search to get some context into the genesis of the dispute that was immediately hijacked by the colour revolution crowd. Forgive me for suspecting this was an intentional trigger. It was merely an error in the 'market forces' assumptions;)

Officials have scrambled to insist that the transition to electronic trading is not the only factor at play in Mangystau's especially sharp price rises. Energy Minister Magzum Mirzagaliyev has gone so far as to accuse gas stations in the region of price-fixing. Their mark-up on LPG sales stands at 25-50 percent, which is “higher than expected” and “gives us grounds to suspect possible price speculation among filling stations,” he said. The anti-monopoly agency is investigating.

Sure enough, filling stations in Mangystau appeared to quickly respond to pressure from the government and reduced their prices for LPG to 85-90 tenge per liter as a way of mollifying the swelling number of protesters. And then, on January 4, after talks between a government commission dispatched from Nur-Sultan to appease the demonstrators and representatives of the protesters in Aktau, an oil city near Zhanaozen where thousands of protesters have also gathered, officials announced that the price of LPG in Mangystau would be slashed once more, to 50 tenge ($0.11) per liter. That is 16 percent lower than it was before the protests began.

What was wrong with the old system anyway?

This is the government’s account of things. Prior to the transition to online trading, LPG was generally sold at a loss for producers, because prices for domestic consumers were regulated by the state and set at a rate below the cost of producing the fuel. In those conditions, there was little reason to produce LPG, which in turn generated shortages.

Another goal of the reform was to tackle illegal trading in LPG. Black-market operators are said to covertly export the commodity to countries where prices are significantly higher than in Kazakhstan. The government has produced data showing that the average retail price for LPG stands at 110 tenge ($0.25) per liter in Kazakhstan. That is two-thirds as much as Russians pay and around half the price LPG sells for in Kyrgyzstan.

Do read the entire report.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 9 2022 5:53 utc | 106

Mark Twain said:

“It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.”

Posted by: librul | Jan 9 2022 5:55 utc | 107

@85 Dong

From the Bellingcat page you link to: "Aiganysh is a Kyrgyzstan-based researcher/data-trainer."

Not for much longer, methinks.....

If Kazakhstan decides that it needs fewer rather than more NGOs then I would suggest that they start with the obvious CIA/MI-6 cutouts.

Cutouts like, well, like Bellingcrap.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jan 9 2022 5:57 utc | 108

> What was the expected outcome of this whole affair?

I interpret the Russian proposal as Russia telling the US "Checkmate!". We have gamed all your possible future moves, and no matter what you do, you lose. Let's talk.

But after Kazakstan, it no longer matters what Biden says; the US deep state has spoken.

Posted by: passerby | Jan 9 2022 6:26 utc | 109

The question about NGOs is really interesting. What are NGOs to start with? Is the name itself Orwellian? ("non-governmental", LOL!). I'm not knowledgeable about NGOs. I wish someone would write an article about the history of NGOs, like "the genealogy of NGOs".

So, why are there so many NGOs operating in KZstan? Let me hazard a guess despite my ignorance. Because they provide essential services that the KZ government should provide but doesnt because it's too busy stuffing its wallet.

There's a short chapter about NGOs in David Graeber's book about bureaucracy. He's pretty evasive about them, like he's uneasy talking about them. I think he said they provided services that were quasi-governmental in nature. Maybe Graeber had many friends working for NGOs, do-gooders who dont really know who they're working for.

Posted by: Robert Macaire | Jan 9 2022 6:29 utc | 110

WTFUD #86

If Turkey is involved AGAIN (like in Syria ), I'd have to question Putin's logic in collaborating with these 2 faced rats. Same goes for Putin's Zionist friends, who are joined at the hip with US Duals in undermining Russia at every turn.

Perhaps Turkeys A team of Grey Wolves are part of the 5000+ imprisoned rioters. They won't be going home I guess, more likely Valhalla can accommodate them. Three hundred rioters were arrested at one of the borders fully kitted with guns, ammo and stolen booty. See Sputnik news.

For Putin and Co., managing Turkey is what counts, sure the annoyances are heavy but it is far better than having a western spiv, market forces, pretty boy at the helm. Everyone gets to hate Erdogan and his clan so he is the right fool in a bad place.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 9 2022 6:31 utc | 111

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 9 2022 6:31 utc | 111

I had to give credit to Erdogan for his boldness to play both West and Russia while still looking after his own new ottoman project. Most of them of course owed to Turkey geographical, economical, and social influence sphere importance rather than himself but to keep iron grip on power is no small feat.

Posted by: Lucci | Jan 9 2022 6:39 utc | 112

james 104

The more I look at it the more I think if Erdogan had any involvement at all, he has been well and truly played by US and UK. They have probably burned his assets. As b noted US embassy announced the protests quite early, nexta if I recall correctly is a UK operation. I guess there would have been other telegram channels operating as well though the speed that the internet was shut down is probably why those telegram channels haven't surfaced.
With the Russian ultimatum and upcoming talks US/UK would be looking to cause any sort of trouble they could.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 9 2022 6:53 utc | 113

The Ameriganda is already calling it a Russian invasion of Kazakhstan.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 9 2022 6:58 utc | 114

uncle tungsten

I had a look at sputnik and found this in their live feed.
https://sputniknews.com/20220109/man-detained-in-almaty-admits-unknown-people-paid-him-200-to-partake-in-kazakh-protests---video-1092126018.html

His face looks a little the worse for wear but I guess we will know soon enough who was behind this as those detainees will be singing like birds and I'm hoping Russia will publish most of it.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 9 2022 7:18 utc | 115

This is wrong on so many levels that it just hurts.


"The gangs which attacked police forces, set buildings on fire and stormed places where arms were stored seemed very well trained. They worked in formations and were obviously under someone's command."

No, they aren`t. The insurgents are just disorganzied gangs. The reason why the Kazakh security apparatus can`t finish them off easily is because they are composed of normal Kazakh people. When the government ordered the security forces to use deadly violence against their own people the same thing happened that always happens in such situations: Most units disobeyed orders and de facto dissolved. At least some of it`s members defected to the insurgents. What remained of the Kazakh security apparatus is so weak and few in numbers that it can`t exercise control in the whole country anymore and has to concentrate on securing a handful of key installations.

Posted by: m | Jan 9 2022 7:27 utc | 116


Posted by: Peter AU1 @ 115,

Thanks for the revealing link:

https://sputniknews.com/20220109/man-detained-in-almaty-admits-unknown-people-paid-him-200-to-partake-in-kazakh-protests---video-1092126018.html

I strongly suggest you look at the BHP link on potash, its links, and the implications, data and impacts for world food production:


https://www.bhp.com/what-we-do/global-locations/canada-jansen-potash-project

It is frightening, and obviously the Schwab's and Soros' of this world have also taken notice of this.data.

Posted by: Paul | Jan 9 2022 7:39 utc | 117

So how timely was this??
Dec23
Kazakhstan ratifies updated military coop agreement with Russia
Kazakhstan's parliament has ratified a security treaty with Russia, just as the Kremlin is redoubling efforts to minimize the West's military
https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-ratifies-updated-military-coop-agreement-with-russia

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 9 2022 7:54 utc | 118

@bellingcat With Kazakhstan rocked by protests this past week, Bellingcat has launched an open source database detailing noteworthy recent flights into and out of the country and is inviting readers and researchers to contribute to it.

My read on this? If they are appealing to open source and “citizen trainplane spotters” then they really did lose all (or most) intel “eyes and ears” in the Kazakhstan region.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 9 2022 8:02 utc | 119

The wishful thinking of incompetent US or UK regime change specialists probably plays a big role in whatever's taken place. Too much time playing video games not enough reading (real) history.

Posted by: fairleft | Jan 9 2022 8:14 utc | 120

Perhaps Kazakhstan is also the first of the Covid revolutions, with the people pushing back against inflation, and also forced vaccinations???

https://anti-empire.com/there-was-an-element-of-medical-freedom-uprising-to-kazakhstans-revolt/

Posted by: Ric G | Jan 9 2022 8:14 utc | 121

"Based on extensive research on the laundering of money and reputations by elites from the post-Soviet successor states, this paper details how the UK is ill-equipped to assess the risk of corruption from transnational kleptocracy, which has undermined the integrity of important domestic institutions and weakened the rule of law."

In other words, allowing foreign kleptocrats to bribe their way into settling in London, and then protecting them from extradition, for which "service" the kleptocrats spend their money libreally, has undermined the moral fabric of UK's institutions and Rule of Law. My, who'd have thunk?

Posted by: Old Brown Fool | Jan 9 2022 8:15 utc | 122

For one how did Russia know what would happen? Russia's CSTO forces were in the air just 13 hours after Tokayev had requested help from the defense pact. Even a well trained quick reaction force will take more time to pack up, get to the airport and leave. CSTO troops from Belarus, Armenia and Tajikistan were also quite quick. Someone must have given them a warning.

Not so fast. 13 hours from receiving the request, but much longer from the beginning of the aggression. Russia could evidently see where this was going sooner than Tokayev - which is of course not surprising as Russia has top notch analysts and top notch intelligence. All the same, I would tend to agree that Russia might have had advance warning from their broad intelligence inputs. We will never know.

I read a suggestion that the plan was to run the aggression against Kazakhstan during the Beijing olympics (like Georgia), but that Russia manipulated it to force it to run prematurel, i.e. not all the stones were in place. That makes a lot of sense to me.

But why then launch this operation at all?
The only answer that makes sense to me is that it was an attempt to divert Russia's attentions from the 'western' threat. As such it has failed.

If the plan was to run the operation during the Beijing olmpics, and if Russia had not gained prior knowledge (as I am guessing she did), maybe the parts would have fitted together better.

Russia uses her intelligence for strategic purposes, and does not let it be known what information she posesses. Often it appears that Russia logically must have far more information than she declares (MH17 is the prime but not only example), and there seems to me to be a reliable pattern that Russia always holds 95% of her cards up her sleeve. Russia intelligence is the best in the world.

Posted by: BM | Jan 9 2022 8:25 utc | 123

Where does Ablyazov keep is stolen money? Billions is a non-trivial amount to hide without help.

Posted by: too scents | Jan 9 2022 8:36 utc | 124

I wonder if anyone saw this: https://southfront.org/kazakhstan-calming-down-the-west-getting-mad/

Posted by: Johnsang | Jan 9 2022 8:43 utc | 125

Why aren’t NGO’s, clearly agents of foreign influence, shut down?

Because they pump money into local economies and supply jobs.

Very much like why German communities scream bloody murder whenever the shutting down of a US military base is mentioned.

Nukes? No problem. Just keep the soldiers spending money into the local economy.

Spying? No problem. Just keep those monetary infusions coming.

Who has not been co-opted in Europe?

Same with the obvious payoffs to oligarchs globally - Kazakhstan is just the most current example - for mineral, oil, and gas exploitation rights.

Revenues from public resources end up supporting the economies of London and Kent when family members of oligarchs buy mansions there. Is this any different than the corruption that buys US elections and keeps ginning up the US defense budget?

Nobody wants transparency in the money trails where it involves their money. Everybody points at other causal factors, basically to change the subject to something less threatening than the issue of chronic larceny.

We will know that state actors are serious when they start appropriating the personal assets of their own oligarchs and plutocrats and kicking out foreign actors who chronically indulge in financial blackmail. Until then, it looks like more posturing and wringing of hands.

PS: To its credit, China, by asking its billionaires to pony up, is making a tentative step in this direction. But with the creation of one billionaire and multiple millionaires a day, this is at least as big a problem for China as for the former Soviet space and the West.

Posted by: JNDillard | Jan 9 2022 9:05 utc | 126

Karim Masimov was likewise removed and has now been arrested and charged with treason:

"That's also Massimov standing on the right, next to Joe Biden and Hunter Biden.
They had a controversial meeting, unmasked by anti-corruption activists inside Kazakhstan.
It's awkward for the U.S. President to be linked to the man accused of heading an anti-Russian uprising."

https://twitter.com/ClintEhrlich/status/1479927716103262208

It is very difficult to dismiss the idea that this violent coup attempt was not linked to western powers.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 9 2022 9:06 utc | 127

Peter AU1 @ 115:

Good pick-up there from Sputnik News - good evidence indeed that these protests are being fuelled by regime-change agents.

You may have heard perhaps that in Hong Kong in 2019, protesters there were being paid according to a scale of payments that rewarded the highest amounts of money to people who committed acts of vandalism. The amounts paid were often more than people might earn in a day. As a result, a lot of people skipped work to join the protests - for how long they did this, I am not sure.

And back in 2014, there'd been stories of people being paid and given transport to travel from as far as Lviv in western Ukraine to Kiev to join the Maidan protests there.

Posted by: Jen | Jan 9 2022 9:13 utc | 128

Peter AU1

Thank you and here is Kevork Almassian "Discussing the Kazakhstan crisis with Dr. Marcus Papadopoulos" - January 7, utoob of 46 minutes.

With the increasing tensions and riots in Kazakhstan and foreign meddling in the Central Asian country, has the U.S. and its allies instigated an attempted coup? Kevork Almassian hosts Dr. Marcus Papadopoulos, historian, analyst and author specialising in Russia and ex-USSR; your PhD is in Russian history.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 9 2022 9:16 utc | 129

Posted by: BM | Jan 9 2022 8:25 utc | 123

Possibly, but I doubt it. It wouldn't be quite like the Mayden Ukie crisis, largely because Beijing would be less affected given Russia's border with Kazakistan.

According to Martynov, most of the weaponry, Jihadists came from Uzbekistan, and the Posted by: Johnsang | Jan 9 2022 8:43 utc | 125 points to Kyrgystan. The major trouble spots are not near the Chinese border and with Russia and the CSTO taking care of business, China would have little to worry about or be blamed for.

I suspect, it was likely intended to go off during the Russia US meeting, but was a bit premature, whether forced so, or because of the LPG hike opportunity (the timing of which is interesting), or maybe the bit players couldn't wait to let things mature further.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Jan 9 2022 9:23 utc | 130

Lucci #112

I had to give credit to Erdogan for his boldness to play both West and Russia while still looking after his own new ottoman project. Most of them of course owed to Turkey geographical, economical, and social influence sphere importance rather than himself but to keep iron grip on power is no small feat.

Fascists like Erdogan, Pinochet, Hitler, Guaido are entitled only to credit that arrives in the form of a high velocity bullet. Humbly speaking, that is.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 9 2022 9:24 utc | 131

Posted by: BM | Jan 9 2022 8:25 utc | 123

Possibly, but I doubt it. It wouldn't be quite like the Mayden Ukie crisis, largely because Beijing would be less affected given Russia's border with Kazakistan.

According to Martynov, most of the weaponry, Jihadists came from Uzbekistan, and the Posted by: Johnsang | Jan 9 2022 8:43 utc | 125 points to Kyrgystan. The major trouble spots are not near the Chinese border and with Russia and the CSTO taking care of business, China would have little to worry about or be blamed for.

I suspect, it was likely intended to go off during the Russia US meeting, but was a bit premature, whether forced so, or because of the LPG hike opportunity (the timing of which is interesting), or maybe the bit players couldn't wait to let things mature further.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Jan 9 2022 9:24 utc | 132

@116 Thanks you, Anthony Blinken. Or are you Victoria Nuland dressed in her husband's suit?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jan 9 2022 9:25 utc | 133

Rough transcript of rushed meeting at the State Department.

SoS: Well, that.... didn't go well, did it?

POTUS: Huh? What? What didn't go well?

SoS: Nothing, Joe. Don't worry about it.

POTUS: [Snnnnnnnnnnnnnoring]

SoS: OK, let's just write this one off. What's on the agenda for tomorrow?

Flunky: The meeting with the Russians regarding NATO.

SoS: [Expletive Deleted]

Flunky: Pardon, Mr Secretary?

SoS: I completely forgot about that [Expletive Deleted] meeting!

Flunky: Is there a problem, Mr Secretary?

SoS: Sure there's a [Explete Deleted] problem! This little escapade was *supposed* to allow me to sit across from Lavrov and sneer "I hear you've been having some trouble in your nether regions, Sergey. Anything we can help you with?"

Flunky: And.... now?

SoS: Lurch is certain to drag a dead terrorist in, drop it at my feet, and sneer "One of yours, I believe"

Flunky: [Expletive Deleted]

POTUS: [Snnnnnnnnnnnnnoring]

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jan 9 2022 9:39 utc | 134

Here is another Sputnik News article to add to the one that Peter AU 1 @ 115 linked to.

’Coincidence?’ US, Foreign NGOs May Have Played Key Role in Social Unrest in Kazakhstan, Expert Says

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - Generous funding from international non-government organizations (NGOs) and the US government has played a key role in the social unrest that has gripped Kazakhstan in recent days, Executive Vice President of Eurasia Group Earl Rasmussen told Sputnik on Friday.

... The International Center for Not-for-Profit Law (ICNL) estimates there are 38,000 active NGOs in Kazakhstan while the majority of them is funded by the United States and European countries by way of grants and donations ...

... The most active participants in the political and social processes in Kazakhstan are such entities as the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the National Endowment for Democracy, the American Bar Association, Freedom House and many others, Rasmussen added ...

... The National Endowment for Democracy alone spent more than $1 million to support democratic processes and human rights movements in Kazakhstan in 2020, according to data published by the organization. The recipients of the funds in Kazakhstan worked to raise the level of youth’s engagement into social and political processes, support the allegedly independent mass media, as well as to protect civil society institutions.

The US government is the major source of funding for the so-called "democratic" forces in Kazakhstan and when it does not finance some activities directly through the State Department or USAID, it sends funds in the form of grants to the various organizations and individuals, including citizens of Kazakhstan.

In 2020, US agencies wired as much as $61 million in foreign assistance to Kazakhstan, according to the official data figures.
Indeed, in 2021 the US Department of State Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor announced a program to support freedom of association in Kazakhstan and allocated $750,000 for this cause.

Another grant worth $740,740 was announced in December with the focus on promoting international standards of religious freedom in Kazakhstan ...

... According to the programs and grants descriptions, Kazakh youth presents the main interest for those foreign entities, which claim to care about democracy and human rights in this Central Asian state ...

Kazakhstan needs a law similar to the one that Russia has (based incidentally on US law) requiring all NGOs in its territory to declare their sources of funding, and to classify all NGOs that get more than 50% of their funding from overseas as foreign agents.

Posted by: Jen | Jan 9 2022 9:41 utc | 135

Well, aside from obvious motive to keep enemy from its borders, huge motive may be diverting all that resources (ore, oil etc.) to friendlier nation to the east (China).

I expect all those western companies in Kazakh to lose their sweet deals in near future.

It is insane to keep feeding enemy with strategic resources when friendlies are struggling. And both China and Russia are thinking looong term.

Posted by: Abe | Jan 9 2022 9:55 utc | 136

About the money...

Luxury houses of the Nazarbayevs: Geneva, Cannes, New York and more ==> https://knews.kg/2020/12/22/roskoshnye-doma-nazarbaevyh-zheneva-kanny-nyu-jork-i-ne-tolko/

Lovely pictures.

Posted by: too scents | Jan 9 2022 10:51 utc | 137

The Arab States are silent on China's treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang … one exception Qatar. Central Asian states too have not criticized China. The Uyghurs drive for an independent state has resulted in “freedom fighters” and terror attacks across China, Beijing included. These jihadists are also operating in Syria and Afghanistan and have been responsible for major bomb attacks under Taliban rule.

What is the chance this group also is part of the violence in Almaty and across Kazakhstan.

https://williamyang-35700.medium.com/kazakhs-staged-a-marathon-style-protest-outside-the-chinese-consulate-to-demand-an-answer-of-their-48b82a894559

Police in Kazakhstan’s largest city, Almaty, have detained six protesters who were demanding the release of relatives they say are being illegally held in China.

The November 29 rallies in front of the Chinese Consulate in Almaty were the latest in a series of demonstrations in Kazakhstan linked to the massive detention of Uyghurs, Kazakhs, and other mostly Muslim ethnic groups in the neighboring Chinese province of Xinjiang.

Further reading: Uyghur Foreign Fighters: An Underexamined Jihadist Challenge

Posted by: Oui | Jan 9 2022 10:53 utc | 138

The Biden family and fellow hucksters have totally lost the plot.

Could this Projection writ large be any more obvious?
This from the invader state of Iraq who has failed to comply with a notice to git! By the Government of that country.

“One lesson in recent history is that once Russians are in your house, it’s sometimes very difficult to get them to leave,” Blinken said.

Guardian.com/world/2022/jan/08/kazakhstan-detains-former-national-security-chief-on-suspicion-of-treason

Utter and complete shameless hypocrisy and proof that the great Satan deserves the bruising its cruising for 🤨

Like the alien US bases and their nefarious activities for 75 years all over Europe and Asia/Pacific?

How about all these that have popped up all over MENA/Africa?

The Philippines? Etc

Posted by: D.G. | Jan 9 2022 11:06 utc | 139

"The Arab States are silent on China's treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang … one exception Qatar."
Posted by: Oui | Jan 9 2022 10:53 utc | 138

'… one exception, bought and paid for by US Qatar.'
There, I corrected it for you.

The silence of the other Muslim Arab States is very loud.

No need to thank me, you can thank james @ | Jan 9 2022 4:08 utc | 98

Posted by: waynorinorway | Jan 9 2022 11:32 utc | 140

it was sure hard for the Taliban to persuade the US to leave.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 9 2022 11:32 utc | 141

The tentative version is that there was a coup attempt, perhaps to replace Tokayev with a "reformer" more obedient to the West and Nazarbayev clan (it could not be possibly an overt member of Nazarbayev clan, more like Zelensky, a "reformer" who cloned Poroshenko), the police went AWOL at noon on a critical days and recruited thugs came in. The thugs clashed with some police that did not follow the instruction to hide, hence two killed police, and made some general mayhem. People who instructed police to withdraw were behind the coup.

As the gangs were recruited from assorted places, there were foreigners and "peripatetic revolutioners" like an occasional follower of Gray Wolves, Islamist etc., while opportunists, primarily Ablayev's people, rose to the occasion to bloviate from Kiev and other places.

At least, that is a coherent compilation of news so far.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 9 2022 12:17 utc | 142

Someone mentioned KAZ, a Kazakh mining giant. It is involved in a gigantic project in Chukotka, beyond Arctic circle, with a huge consumption of electricity from nuclear power stations that will be towed to the region like Pevek power station recently:

The Baimskoye mining project will soon transform large chunks of vulnerable Arctic lands in Russia’s remote region of Chukotka.

The project that is to be launched in 2027 will ultimately include the extraction and subsequent procession of 70 million tons of ore per year. Two processing plants will be built, each with an annual capacity of 35 million tons, and the volume of copper produced is to reach 400,000 tons per year, KAZ Minerals CEO and Board Chairman Oleg Novachuk explained to Vladimir Putin during his visit to the Kremlin this week.

The company will invest $8,5 billions in the project, Novachuk confirmed. In addition come large sums of federal money in new infrastructure.

The Baimskoye will include not only open pits and the two processing plants, but also several hundred kilometres of new roads and power lines, as well as a new seaport on the coast of the Chukotka Sea.
-----
What is not mentioned in this article is that a big proportion of projected revenue will come from gold that is also present in the ore, the infrastructure cost will be split 50/50 with Russia, and Russia will gets its share of the profit through taxes. Novachuk is probably unrelated to Novatek.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 9 2022 12:31 utc | 143

In this sitrep it is said a 08:08 Nursultan Nazarbayev himself decided to transfer the post of Chairman of the Security Council to Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev

https://riafan.ru/1582589-protesty-v-kazakhstane-khronologiya-sobytii

Posted by: my email | Jan 9 2022 12:32 utc | 144

Posted by: m | Jan 9 2022 7:27 utc | 116 --
~// The insurgents are just disorganzied gangs. //~

This statement has been strongly objected to. But I think it has some merit. The rioters were probably a mix of real paid agents, plus a greater number of 'luxthralldom' victims. Many ordinary people are susceptible to the luxthralldom effect. It works like this -- It begins with a relatively small group of fascists. True fascist are defined as people who (1) have significant influence over others whom they are controlling, and (2) generally regard the people whom they control with profound contempt, and (3) have access to a major financial resources. There are also true fascists who have the mental outlook that would lead them to do the just-mentioned activity if they possessed the requisite financial resources, but who simply lack those resources.

Then, there are the masses of people who are the true victims of the luxthralldom as perpetrated by the money-laden fascists. The victims usually do not have to be provided with any actual money -- They merely need to be shown that the controllers (who often are not directly known to the victims) are flush with great quantities of money (or power that obviously flows from that money). They are provided with over-embellished picket signs, luxurious websites, flamboyant speech givers, etc. This has a powerful hypnotic effect -- affluence can act as a powerful pheromone. This eventuates into a 'tribal event', in which they come to feel a 'warm', powerful pseudo-kinship (this is akin to what has been called 'mass formation'). And this 'tribe' will, consciously or otherwise, be controlled by its fascist leaders.

Usually, such a tribe will be turned against something, or against someone who represents some thing. This happens over and over. The fascists are literally in the 'business' of 'churning' out bad history, and also, they always have plenty of money to burn.

Posted by: blues | Jan 9 2022 12:41 utc | 145

How you can be confused about who is behind this is a mystery to me?
With the Uyghurs in Xinjiang, and links to Turkey, the meeting of Putin and Biden about NATO Creep and Ukraine....... It in my opinion was a joint effort to insert a so called "Independent" Country free of Russian influence and as a side issue is chok-a-block with all the stuff the US eats for breakfast........ And you aren't sure who is behind this?
The US could have a huge Base in the middle of the most important and strategic area in Central Asia and cause havoc far and wide and send the Chinese mad? Who the performing monkeys are is unimportant and if they all die what does that matter.....
It would have been and is cheap and hardly an American was killed.
So hopefully you wake up and smell the roses and realise it's the same old--same old!
Luckily Putin knows what was intended and had troops in the Almaty Airport within 24 hours and that had to be pre-planned and not a spur of the moment reaction?

William Kierath

Posted by: William Edward Kiera | Jan 9 2022 12:44 utc | 146

> the volume of copper

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 9 2022 12:31 utc | 143

===

Not just copper.

Indicated Resources of 1.2 billion metric tons grading 0.53% copper, 0.29 g/t gold, 0,014% molybdenum, and 2.6 g/t silver contained 6.39 million metric tons of copper, 345.7 metric tons of gold, 165,4 thousand metric tons of molybdenum and 3141.5 metric tons of silver.


https://www.researchgate.net/profile/A-Chitalin/publication/272497978_Structural_model_of_Peschanka_porphyry_Cu-Au-Mo_deposit_Western_Chukotka_Russia/links/54e71ad80cf277664ff79357/Structural-model-of-Peschanka-porphyry-Cu-Au-Mo-deposit-Western-Chukotka-Russia.pdf

Posted by: too scents | Jan 9 2022 12:46 utc | 147

too scents | Jan 9 2022 10:51 utc | 137:

Lovely pictures indeed. Not so much for that family. Who buys $400K worth of handbags and refuse to pay for it? LOL

Posted by: Ian2 | Jan 9 2022 13:01 utc | 148

Someone mentioned KAZ, a Kazakh mining giant.
@Piotr Berman | Jan 9 2022 12:31 utc | 143

Baimskaya
"KAZ Minerals is a British company that has most of its operations in large scale copper mines in Kazakhstan. In 2018, it acquired 75 percent of the Baimskaya from a consortium owned by three individuals, among them Roman Abramovich." [my emphasis]

I hope KAZ Minerals loses its ass in Kazakhstan and Roman's flunky footballers never win another match. Ever! Boo Chelsea!

"However, the project comes with a high price both for the local Arctic environment and indigenous peoples in the area." Double boo Chelsea!!

Posted by: waynorinorway | Jan 9 2022 13:02 utc | 149

The place is a gem.
What about lithium deposits?
It has made good progress in developing its economy.
I can see why it would be concerned about being held back by Russia.
Population is 40% Russian and about 15% Khazak?
Poor progress in moving away from authoritarianism, but it seems the whole world is moving toward authoritarium in panic over rise of China.
Russia has propose good paradigm - the Finnic model.
But what the western oligarchs cannot control or at least exploit at will, they seek to destroy.

Posted by: jared | Jan 9 2022 13:40 utc | 150

I saw a recent (six hours ago) report about a large three pronged night attack on Donbas by Ukraine. To take advantage of Kazakhstan disruptions.

https://avia-pro.fr/news/vsu-predprinyali-masshtabnoe-nastuplenie-na-doneck-srazu-s-tryoh-napravleniy

From Donbas' statement;
"Nos positions dans la direction de Yasinovatsky....."

****
Can anyone confirm this (or rebut)?
Said to could be an attempt at probing the Donbas defensive lines, rather than an outright "invasion", but seems to have been more serious than usual.

(Avia.pro .A rather pro-Ukrainian/US site?)

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 9 2022 13:46 utc | 151

Yeah, Right @75: "You don't stage an internal coup against a sitting government by seizing airports."

The CIA champions capitalism, and the off-the-record "business" side of the CIA has always been air freight (drugs, weapons, trafficked people). It is easy to make the mistaken assumption that the CIA's "business" is lying, cheating, and stealing, as well as raping, torturing, and murdering, with an occasional color revolution thrown in from time to time, but the CIA's core "business" has always really been air freight.

That the death squads' first focus was to secure airports says to me that the coup was not internal, nor was it MI6. This action points directly and unmistakably at the CIA. The CIA needs airports for any operation more involved than wiping their butts. In retrospect this is probably also why the ukropian "cyborg" orcs fought to the last orc to maintain control of the Donetsk airport.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 9 2022 13:55 utc | 152

@Yeah, Right @75: "You don't stage an internal coup against a sitting government by seizing airports."

No, you put on buffalo horns, red white and blue face paint and call yourself a shaman. Or, maybe, you opt for
knitted caps instead of protective gear. You wipe your feet instead of wiping people out as you walk politely threw
government doors not touching the police as they politely hold
the doors for you.

https://twitter.com/christina_bobb/status/1347596278583197698

Posted by: librul | Jan 9 2022 14:11 utc | 153

Cui Boner -
This would seem to strengthen Russia's hand going into (likely pointless) talks.

It was a "Leroy Jenkins" (yt video)

I worry for all involved that Ukraine seems over confident (like Poland) - provoking.

Posted by: jared | Jan 9 2022 14:13 utc | 154

Among many possibilities:
Russia borrowed from US FBI playbook - instigate and entrap.

Regarding the airports. Not experienced in coup planning, but trying to learn -
I suspect that might be a case of sealing the exits.
Or something related to flying the nations gold out for safe-keeping - as was done in Ukraine.

Posted by: jared | Jan 9 2022 14:33 utc | 155

Hi there, new to the blog. Tks 4 input & comments. I used to follow the Saker, but his stance on covid threw me off. That stance was coupled to Putin's statements on C-19. Its probably not smart to filter everything through that lens, but yet we're in the grip of Pharma's Empire for the last 2 yrs. How do the Saker or Putin square that on the Global Chessboard?

Posted by: Touchstone-man | Jan 9 2022 15:09 utc | 156

Muhammad Sadiq Al-Husseini:(translation from Arabic)

How did Putin thwart America's plan in Kazakhstan and make Ukraine and Poland militarily fallen...?

Everything that the West and the Arab reaction prepared for him during years and spent billions on it evaporated overnight at the hands of Vladimir Putin!

In less than 24 hours, Putin managed to thwart the most dangerous American operation that was to burn Central Asia and the Caucasus from Kazakhstan!

Moscow was able to transfer more than 20,000 soldiers to this sprawling country, and its success in striking the colorful revolution supported by the United States and funded by Saudi Arabia and controlling the country’s political, administrative and geographical joints, which made Putin succeed in removing Biden from the game with nostalgia and leaving Kazakhstan empty-handed, he does not have The expected hypothetical summit between him and his Russian counterpart on the 10th of this month is nothing but disappointment, humiliation and refraction, after Biden wanted it as his guaranteed trump card...

Joe Biden, who had completely failed to drag his opponent on the international stage, Vladimir Putin, into the trap of invading the enclave of Ukraine, despite the large number of media hype and intelligence and military mobilization on the borders of Russian national security.

The decision of the deep state in Washington was to go to work with plan "B" in the context of occupying Russia with a broader theater of operations and keeping it away from the gathering of the rising powers of the East.

Thus, from now until that day, Russia has succeeded in dismantling, eliminating and destroying all terrorist units trained in Turkish and Gulf-funded bases throughout the Kazakh country.

This means that Moscow has practically thwarted the most dangerous conspiracy that Washington and its tools had prepared for Kazakhstan years ago, according to informed sources, which necessitated those who were well-trained and well-prepared to take to the streets in the largest Central Asian country incubating Russian national security.

The success of this airborne Russian landing carries with it broad and strategic implications of great importance to Washington and NATO.

The process took place very quickly, in which it controlled an area larger than all of Europe, and in countries more complex than Ukraine and Poland, which have become practically an easy bite to swallow and digest for Moscow if it decided to do so in the next rounds of fighting with the West, which makes Washington under great shock now, which is She watches her plans crumble before her eyes again, as happened in Syria, but this time in the blink of an eye!

It is known that all the tools implementing the American plan were ready by employing parties, civil society organizations and groups borrowed from neighboring countries (based in Ukraine) with the joint operations room in Alma-Ata in the hands of the Russians!

Thus, the scenario of igniting an anti-Moscow "Arab Spring" that aimed to pressure it to make concessions to the West or slip into violence and become embroiled in Kazakh blood, to take the country to the path of colored revolutions, has fallen.

Kazakhstan is the most important state for the Russian-Asian alliance for joint security and defense and one of the headquarters for securing the mobilization of Russian strategic weapons. It was the beginning that the West assumed to infiltrate into China and into the Muslim republics, including those affiliated with the Russian Federation.

It is the largest country with an area of ​​more than 3 million km2, which borders almost all of the Russian south, along a common border with Russia of 7,664 km, and borders China to the east and north as well…

Kazakhstan is a country rich in oil and gas and in many minerals, including uranium as well.

Moscow was practically able to save it from the most dangerous armed western attack operation in less than 24 hours by operating a high-speed air bridge and arming it that made NATO stunned and completely lost the initiative!

Thus, Moscow would have practically thwarted the conspiracy to transfer Kazakhstan from one bank to another by using a very high defensive dynamic that reminded the world of the Kosovo and Serbia operation when the Russians took control of Pristina airport in 1999, which prompted the NATO forces to retreat from Bosnia and Serbia to this day...

Observers attribute the success of the Russian plan for airdrops in Kazakhstan to the fact that the Russian Supreme Command was well aware of what the US Central Command, stationed in Qatar, had planned, the day it transported thousands of ISIS elements, from both Syria and Iraq since 2017, after their defeat at the gates of Levant and Bilad Rafidain at the hands of the armies of the axis of resistance and the inability of them to resume fighting in a frontal manner (that is, in the form of a front capable of launching large-scale military operations).

And how the transfers of these groups had taken place with Saudi-Qatari funding, and that they had reached their climax after the defeat of ISIS in Iraq at the end of the said year.

Where no less than 12 thousand elements were transferred to northern Afghanistan, and from that day their infiltration began into the former Soviet Asian republics, including Kazakhstan.

They found incubating bases in those countries, through 18,000 non-governmental organizations, funded by Saudi Arabia, in those countries.

The number of members of these organizations, who are able to bear arms, are trained and well-equipped according to the sources of the resistance axis, is more than 280,000.

What happened during the past few days of chaos, looting, looting and destruction of private and public property, was under the supervision of an American-Israeli operations room, based in the city of Alma-Ata, the economic capital of Kazakhstan.

- This room consisted of 22 American operations officers, six “Israeli” military intelligence officers, and 16 Turkish intelligence officers. Groups trained to carry out sabotage operations “behind enemy lines / special forces or thunderbolts” were used in the implementation of the operations, which the Ankara government had trained and prepared. in its Turkish bases and sent them in a systematic and organized manner into the country in full coordination with NATO.

But once again, Moscow was on the lookout for them, and it began to thwart the operation when the Kazakh army, with clear Russian support, was able to regain control of Al-Mata Airport, which was supposed - according to the plan - to turn into a center for receiving military supplies coming from the countries that manage everyone.

This previous knowledge of the reactionary Western plan is what prompted the Kazakh president to take immediate and decisive field measures, and his call to activate the role of the Organization for Security and Cooperation, which includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Tajikistan to deploy joint forces, which laid the ground and the practical possibility to resolve the hostile attack and destroy infrastructure for that organization.

It was the arrival of the vanguards of the supporting forces, from the countries mentioned above, led by Russia, who put an end to the smuggling and chaos operations and cut off the conspiracy and eliminated it in its bud.

- Especially since these forces were immediately tasked with protecting institutions, government buildings, and major strategic installations.

- This means protecting the Kazakh state, preventing its fall and dividing it, and turning it into a base for carrying out American "Israeli" operations against Russia, China and Iran.

This is because the confirmed information available to the Russian leadership was that Washington and NATO capitals were practically preparing to transfer this scenario soon to Moscow and Tehran under the title "Plan C" as soon as the control of Kazakhstan was completed!

But everyone in the countries of the Shanghai Organization was ready and vigilant this time to bring down the conspiracy completely, and prevent the dream of the American planner and its executors, who have become strategic and tactical blindness, from verification and making its tools sink into a process of attrition that you do not know how to get out of!

The most important indication of what happened during the past hours can be summed up in the fact that the strategic balance of power between Washington and Moscow has changed in the interest of the latter, and the rules of engagement between East and West have changed, and that Ukraine and Poland have become fiery downfalls.

The one who disbelieved was astonished.

After us, they are good, say God...

Posted by: Virgile | Jan 9 2022 15:28 utc | 157

@Virgile

Well written by an Iranian scholar?

http://alasrmag.com/كيف-احبط-بوتين-خطة-اميركا-في-كازاخستان/

Posted by: Oui | Jan 9 2022 15:47 utc | 158

Kazakhstan needs a law similar to the one that Russia has (based incidentally on US law) requiring all NGOs in its territory to declare their sources of funding, and to classify all NGOs that get more than 50% of their funding from overseas as foreign agents.
Posted by: Jen | Jan 9 2022 9:41 utc | 135

This law exists. See the report by the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law to which Sputniknews refers :

On July 26, 2016, Kazakhstan adopted a so-called Law on Payments that introduced new reporting requirements in the Tax Code for organizations (including CSOs) and individuals regarding the receipt and expenditure of foreign funds and/or assets. An organization or an individual that falls within the scope of this provision must provide a notification to the tax authorities, as well as information on the receipt and expenditure of funds and/or other assets received from foreign sources to the tax authorities. In addition, they must label all publications produced with support from foreign funds as funded from foreign sources. Kazakh legislation provides for severe administrative penalties for non-compliance with these new requirements.

https://www.icnl.org/resources/civic-freedom-monitor/kazakhstan

Posted by: Leuk | Jan 9 2022 16:12 utc | 159

https://www.gunaz.tv/index.php/az/new/azax-stan-n-razisi-ke-mi-usiya-razil-rdir-lk-iki-yer-b-l-n

“Qazaxıstanın ərazisi keçmiş Rusiya ərazilərdir…Ölkə iki yerə bölünə bilər”-Jirinovskidən sərsəm açıqlama | Gunaz.tv - Jan. 7, 2022 |

“Kazakhstan is an artificial and weak state. Almost all of Kazakhstan is Russian territory. Even my hometown, Almaty, was called Verny and was an outpost of Tsarist Russia in Asia.”

Posted by: Oui | Jan 9 2022 16:36 utc | 160

Virgile | Jan 9 2022 15:28 utc | 156

Thank you virgile. It makes a lot of sense, and adds more reasons that Russia did not take the "bait" and attack Ukraine.

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 9 2022 16:43 utc | 161


"Kazakhstan turns into graveyard for US diplomacy" By M. K. BHADRAKUMAR

-------------

"The Kazakh Ministry of Health issued an innocuous disclaimer today denying social media reports about the seizure of a “military biological lab near Almaty by unidentified people.”

According to Tass news agency, the social media speculated that specialists in chemical protection suits were working near the lab as “a leak of dangerous pathogens” occurred.

The carefully worded press release by the Kazakh ministry clarifies: “This is not true. The facility is being protected.” Period.

The intriguing report highlights the tip of an iceberg which has implications for public health and holds serious geopolitical ramifications.

...

These biological research facilities were originally envisaged as part of the so-called Nunn-Lugar Biological Threat Reduction Program to prevent the proliferation of expertise, materials, equipment and technologies that could contribute to the development of biological weapons.

But Moscow suspected that the exact opposite opposite was happening — in reality, Pentagon has been sponsoring, lavishly financing and providing technical assistance to these laboratories where “under the guise of peaceful research, the US is building up its “military-biological potential.”

... These projects funded researchers in Kazakhstan, while project collaborators in the US and UK mentored and guided these researchers to develop and test their hypotheses.

Rather than locating the new facility in some secure tract of land in Nevada, the Pentagon deliberately chose a site near Almaty to securely store and study highest-risk diseases such as plague, anthrax and cholera.

...Paradoxically, these biological labs are living examples of something sinister that has been going on which everyone knew and no one wanted to talk about — namely, the extensive penetration of the decadent Kazakh ruling elites by the US intelligence.

This penetration has been going on for years but significantly deepened as the 81-year old former president Nurusultan Nazarbayev’s “hands-on” grip began to loosen and his family members and cronies increasingly began acting freely (under his benevolent gaze, of course) — something akin to the Yeltsin years in Russia.

Sadly, it is a familiar story. The Kazakh elites are notoriously corrupt even by Central Asian standards and the parasitic elites have preferred to keep their loot in safe havens in the western world . Unsurprisingly, they are hopelessly compromised to the US intelligence. It’s as simple as that.

...But things have dramatically changed this past week. Nazarbayev may still have some residual influence but not good enough to rescue the elites who subserved US interests. In particular, President Tokayev, a low-profile career diplomat by profession, is finally coming on his own.

Two of Tokayev’s decisive moves have been the replacement of Nazarbayev as the head of the National Security Council and the dismissal of the country’s powerful intelligence chief Karim Masimov (who has since been arrested along with other unidentified suspects as part of a probe into “high treason.”)

https://www.indianpunchline.com/kazakhstan-turns-into-graveyard-for-us-diplomacy/

Posted by: daffyDuct | Jan 9 2022 16:59 utc | 162

thanks peter... yes, i can imagine erdogan being played by the uk -usa... definitely..

Posted by: james | Jan 9 2022 17:16 utc | 163

Below is a quote from a ZH posting that provides a smoking gun admittance of NGO purpose

"
When revolutions occur in countries where they're active, Russia connects the dots. Kazakhstan is the latest example. In the year before the attempted revolution, the US National Endowment for democracy spent more than $1M in the country. The money went to PR campaigns against the government and training anti-government protesters. The Russians are convinced that NED is a front for the CIA. I don't think that's true. But it's a distinction without a difference, since NED has taken over part of the CIA's mission. In 1986, the founder of NED, Carl Gershman, said the group was created because "[i]t would be terrible for democratic groups around the world to be seen as subsidized by the CIA." Today, instead of receiving CIA money, they receive NED money.

In 1991, NED President Allen Weinstein said, "A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA." He claimed that operating overtly via NED, rather than covertly through the CIA, made the risk of blowback "close to zero."
"

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 9 2022 17:34 utc | 164

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 9 2022 17:34 utc | 163

Carl Gershman... Allen Weinstein....

When I see Jewish names attached to organizations I know it is front for most sinister and dirty businesses.

Posted by: Abe | Jan 9 2022 18:04 utc | 165

Somebody linked bellingcrap back up the thread but their flight sheets are interesting.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oXU0OPT5XYEDA1C1juHwsZ_xuBBGFQ4LC8g-bq9tH9k/edit#gid=0

Two planes flew out to London just before the first Russian military planes flew in. The control center for the riots? The other thing of interest was on the 5th flights started coming in from Dubai and have kept coming in amongst the Russian military aircraft.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 9 2022 18:34 utc | 166

bresgi says that the forces of the New revolution were forged in the mountains of kandahar by white robed servants of the Ghantin.
More importantly the dynamical strategy of the 3 sided dice has come into play.this means that the smaller players can change the game easier them a feather falling in a quill.

Posted by: mcohen | Jan 9 2022 20:24 utc | 167

Virgile #156

Thank you. Excellent report.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 9 2022 20:46 utc | 168

Peter AU1 #165

Somebody linked bellingcrap back up the thread but their flight sheets are interesting.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oXU0OPT5XYEDA1C1juHwsZ_xuBBGFQ4LC8g-bq9tH9k/edit#gid=0

Two planes flew out to London just before the first Russian military planes flew in. The control center for the riots? The other thing of interest was on the 5th flights started coming in from Dubai and have kept coming in amongst the Russian military aircraft.

Superb addition to Virgile's translation of Muhammad Sadiq Al-Husseini. That seems like a gentleman's 'arrangement' was made to spare the pools of blood. I trust not one Grey Wolf was on a flight.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 9 2022 21:48 utc | 169

too scents | Jan 9 2022 10:51 utc | 137

Thanks! Such a link to current events! I repeat it here:

https://knews.kg/2020/12/22/roskoshnye-doma-nazarbaevyh-zheneva-kanny-nyu-jork-i-ne-tolko/

For a good time and a teaching-aid on Socialism and Communism and Capitalism and all forms of governing others, AKA populations, see above link.

Posted by: chu teh | Jan 9 2022 22:04 utc | 170

"has there ever been a historical event
where two or more independent elements
attempted a coup at the same moment?"

Sure would be messy. And a tangled web.
Would such a situation be to someone's advantage?

Posted by: librul | Jan 8 2022 18:59 utc | 6

I know at least of an instance, in Spain.

The sort-of-fizzled coup after Franco's dictatorship, usually known as 23-F; had at least two instigating military sides, ultimately the king played them all...

Posted by: Misotheist | Jan 9 2022 22:30 utc | 171

This interchange bodes well for the future of humankind:

Commenting on Russia's deployment of 3,000 troops to Kazakhstan, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said:

"One lesson in recent history is that once Russians are in your house, it’s sometimes very difficult to get them to leave."

This comment was infuriating to Russia. The Foreign Ministry responded:

"If Anthony Blinken loves history lessons so much, then he should take the following into account: when Americans are in your house, it can be difficult to stay alive and not be robbed or raped."

Posted by: Sushi | Jan 9 2022 22:39 utc | 172

Blinken is one of the most enthusiastic liars for the Empire I have seen lately.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 9 2022 22:44 utc | 173

uncle tungsten 168

I did quite a bit of reading up on the Organization of Turkic states earlier, also thought about the conflicts Erdo has gotten Turkey involved in and it makes me think he was not involved this one although no doubt there was a few Turks in amongst the rabble.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_Turkic_States

...Turkic countries consisting of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and Uzbekistan. It is an intergovernmental organization whose overarching aim is promoting comprehensive cooperation among Turkic-speaking states. First proposed by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev in 2006, it was founded on October 3, 2009, in Nakhchivan.

The General Secretariat is in Istanbul. Turkmenistan is currently an observer state.



Tokayev publicly applauds Turkey as the leader of the Turkic world.
That was in one of the recent meetings That I read earlier but can't dig up the link at the moment. I did find something interesting though at the organisations site and that is Tokayev's full speech to the nation on the seventh. https://www.turkkon.org/assets/pdf/haberler/address-to-the-nation-2435-137.pdf

Their site https://www.turkkon.org/en/haberler.

Amenia called on the CSTO in its little war with Azerbajan but a good part of CSTO is involved in the organisation of Turkic states with Azerbajan and Turkey.
Erdogan would be very much trying to overthrow allies if he were involved. I think its UK, US, and likely France. Those two planes scooting back to London just before the Russian military came in looked very suspicious.

Radio subversion has a piece here saying part of protesters demands was that a 'civic leader' head and interim government. That so called civic leader would belong to the US/UK/Soros through their NGO setups. https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-voices-protesters-complaints-toqaev/31644144.html

They called for the complete resignation of Toqaev’s government along with the creation of an interim administration headed by a representative of civil society.

In thinking about it, if the President hadn't of acted as fast as he did, it would have been over very quickly as US/UK had Kazak head of security in their pocket, not doubt through his direct connections to Biden. I think now Putin must have given them a heads up when they were in Moscow a week or so earlier.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 9 2022 23:00 utc | 174

This is the transcript again of Tokayev's address to the nation. It is worth reading through as he thanks all the friendly states and also speaks of the outside influences that caused the riots. I think NGO's are in for a difficult time in Kazakhstan.
https://www.turkkon.org/assets/pdf/haberler/address-to-the-nation-2435-137.pdf

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 9 2022 23:05 utc | 175

This left me gobsmacked.

‘PEACEFUL PROTESTERS’ IN KAZAKHSTAN REVEAL THEIR ORIGIN (SouthFront)

“On January 1, I got a call from unknown men who offered me to take part the rally. They offered 90,000 tenge (about $200). Since I am unemployed in Kyrgyzstan, I agreed. They bought me a ticket. On January 2, I arrived in Almaty, and I was taken to an apartment. There were also citizens of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. I didn’t understand what they were talking about. When the rally started, I got scared and went back to the apartment, spent the night there. The next day I decided to go home and I was detained.”

Posted by: ADKC | Jan 10 2022 1:40 utc | 176

That was an excellent article B. Thanks for helping me understand the issues involved.

Posted by: Hermius | Jan 10 2022 2:12 utc | 177

What was the Khazak military doing during all of this?
What does it mean to be "head" of "security"?
Khazakstan had been making progress and was receiving interest from the west. Hope that will continue apace.
Now to negotiate the terms of NATO's surrender and Ukraines existence - copies to the clown president.

Posted by: jared | Jan 10 2022 2:28 utc | 178

uncle tungsten | Jan 9 2022 9:16 utc | 129

Peter AU1

Thank you and here is Kevork Almassian "Discussing the Kazakhstan crisis with Dr. Marcus Papadopoulos" - January 7, utoob of 46 minutes.

pretzelattack | Jan 9 2022 11:32 utc | 141


it was sure hard for the Taliban to persuade the US to leave.

FWIW from the linked video:

26:13
i am the only
26:15
television commentator
26:17
who has said and maintains to this very
26:19
day
26:21
that
26:21
the west america and britain has not
26:24
withdrawn from afghanistan
26:27
the military of america has withdrawn
26:32
but to control a country
26:34
the americans and the british do not
26:37
need to have soldiers in that country
26:40
they can control a country by
26:42
controlling its economic infrastructure
26:44
they can control a country by
26:46
controlling its civil service
26:50
if we go back to when the taliban was
26:52
advancing
26:54
uh last summer the taliban took
26:57
just
26:58
a few weeks a very short period of time
27:01
to conquer afghanistan a very large
27:04
country a very diverse country with the
27:08
presence of the american military there
27:13
and there was no confrontation between
27:15
the taliban and the american military
27:18
that was highly
27:20
suspicious
27:22
now we have and since then
27:24
the director of the cia has met with the
27:27
taliban leadership in kabul
27:30
his mi6 counterpart or sis which is the
27:33
proper acronym for britain's foreign
27:36
intelligence service secret intelligence
27:38
service has also met with the leadership
27:41
of the taliban in kabul
27:44
and we see through american mainstream
27:46
media and british mainstream media that
27:48
the term the taliban is gradually being
27:51
portrayed
27:53
in a more positive light now
27:57
portrayed in a way which is meant to say
28:00
to the american public in the british
28:02
public
28:02
that the taliban
28:04
has evolved
28:06
and today they are an ally against isis
28:11
there was no need kevork for the
28:13
americans to withdraw from afghanistan
28:15
they had not been military militarily
28:18
defeated there
28:20
and it should also be said that for many
28:22
years going back to 2010 the american
28:25
military had been working with the
28:28
taliban so why would the americans give
28:33
up afghanistan when they were not
28:35
defeated there
28:36
they have formed an unofficial alliance
28:39
with the taliban and the taliban
28:43
as
28:44
part of the the agreement is allowed to
28:47
govern to rule afghanistan and in return
28:49
the taliban will ensure
28:51
that the economic infrastructure in
28:55
um
28:56
in afghanistan remains in the possession
28:59
of america and britain and that britain
29:01
and america will retain their strategic
29:04
influences there because afghanistan
29:06
borders onto central asia which is
29:07
russia's sphere of influence
29:09
afghanistan is close to china the
29:12
xinjiang province which is a restless
29:15
restless muslim province so the west has
29:18
not withdrawn from afghanistan but turn
29:22
into
29:23
kazakhstan
29:24
ever since the disillusion of the soviet

Posted by: pogohere | Jan 10 2022 2:31 utc | 179

A friend sent me article saying, not surprisingly, that "Russia follows a familiar playbook in Kazakhstan." I fired back, "The US follows a familiar playbook in Kazakhstan, folloring Iran, Guatemala, Chile, Syria, and Ukraine." and then links to MoonOfAlabama this week.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kazakhstan-russia-follows-playbook-developed-205906065.html

Posted by: Charles Peterson | Jan 10 2022 2:31 utc | 180

@156 Virgile and @161 daffyDuct - Thank you both for those reports.

I have been trying to understand the scale of what we are seeing here.

The combined reports suggest we're seeing the visible surface of a much larger war in Central Asia, consisting of long-term US infiltration and subornation throughout the entire region.

The Arabian report cites some 280,000 possible insurgents salted throughout the region - and we know about the materiel left behind in Afghanistan, as well as the apparent ease of ratlines from Turkey and money from the Gulf states. The Bhadrakumar article illustrates the spread of US bio-labs in the region.

And we have plenty of collateral for understanding that US and global corporations have long been entrenched in the region - a region that is tribal and with great corruption as a cultural norm.

And so, while much that exists today will remain and coexist with any shift in power - whether we approve of that or not - much of what exists today must also be destroyed.

So in many ways, this is not a one-off event. And this debut performance of CSTO seems only incidental to the role it has long trained for and is stepping into fully now, of finding the embedded subversion wherever it lies, and rooting it out (or tricking it to show itself), and destroying it.

So I think we will become more familiar with Central Asia in the years to come.

Posted by: Grieved | Jan 10 2022 4:58 utc | 181

The Saker has a good review of the situation:

Who “lost” Kazakhstan and to whom?

I don't always agree with his views but in this one I think he does a great job of assessing the shifts in power from the Kazakhstan event, as well as offering a military view of the forces, and the geopolitical interests and fallout. A useful review.

Saker reviews the "multi-vector" policies of the former USSR states - and by this term he refers to accepting useful assistance from Russia while flirting with the west, playing both sides to extract maximum gain. From Belarus, to Kazakhstan, to Armenia, Russia has managed to wake these states up from their indulgence, to realize that only Russia can offer them true security and sovereignty.

As to the kinetic aspects, I like this paragraph:

About the CSTO operation itself. First, the Russian and Belarusian forces (about 3’000 Russians and 500 Belarusians): they are truly elite, top of the line, battle hardened, professional, highly trained and superbly equipped forces (the other smaller contingents are more for “PR decoration” than for anything else). Officially, their mission is only to protect key official (Kazakh and Russian) facilities but these forces would be more than enough to make minced meat of out any western or Turkish trained Takfiris or nationalists, even if their numbers are much higher than the 20’000 estimate.

And, in the worst case, these forces happen to be in control of key airports were Russians (and Belarusians) could send in even more forces, including at least two Russian airborne divisions. That would be a force nothing in Central Asia can even dream of taking on. I should also mention that Russia has a large and strategically crucial military base in Tadjikistan which has trained to fight against Takfiri terrorists and insurgents for decades now and which could also support any Russian military operation in Central Asia.

Russia is deep in the Stans, says Saker, with widespread influence and engagement. And we already assume that her intelligence is superb.

So the Game is afoot, and Russia is playing it. I find it encouraging to know that Russia is on the case.

~~

I also notice a thing here, that neither Russia nor China are in the habit of acting on provocations. While both nations are getting some fun from trolling the west - a new sport for them, and who can blame them - they don't actually reveal any cards until they are ready.

And usually, in fact, they reveal their cards AFTER they have struck rather than before. This is something we must get used to.

As in Kazakhstan, as in numerous theaters and realms of activity, these countries understand exactly what is being stacked against them or thrown at them, in every moment.

But they don't "respond" as we on the sidelines might wish for them to respond, because their focus is unwaveringly fixed on the jugular. When they see it, they make their move. But until conditions are optimal, they abide, and brush off the flea bites. Waiting for the jugular.

When we see Russia not move, I think we can know she is waiting and preparing for a better one than the one we see.

Posted by: Grieved | Jan 10 2022 5:23 utc | 182

Posted by: ADKC | Jan 10 2022 1:40 utc | 175

I dont know why you would be surprised at this point.
The proffesionals infiltrate and promote a local protest and use it as trojan horse for major violence to either distupt or to discredit the locals.

Be careful what you sign up for. Most people working for ngo's are probably meaning to do good.

I suspect industry (oil) is only source for funding and organization for this one. They are trying to help the people by freeing them for thier government. As in pretty much every country in south america.

As someone said: "You cannot handle the truth!" The problem is... us.

Posted by: jared | Jan 10 2022 5:25 utc | 183

Tomorrows the big day Grieved. The American hillbillies can back off and save face or they can live under the shadow of Russian military tech... a bit like living in the shadow of the grim reaper.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 10 2022 5:39 utc | 184

Seven US convoys in Iraq were attacked. All in one day.

Posted by: Ian2 | Jan 10 2022 5:50 utc | 185

I do not know about Kazakhstan very good, just from a good old friend living there and working for a western company, well established.
But trying to assimilate it to the dictatorship in Belarus, no way!
I lived in Belarus and I can assure you in two years I couldn't find more than 3 people who would endorse the continuation of the dictator Lukashenko. And the three of them were middle aged state workers.

If things are just a bit similar in Kazakhstan, people just want to change policies, get fresh air after years and years of deceiving politics

Posted by: Nil | Jan 10 2022 6:05 utc | 186

I have had personal experience with police in Central Asia.

Was this peaceful Kyrgyz caught up in fact peacefully and then beaten to "confess" a story that is being pushed by the police who detained him? They detained him after he returned to the apartment when he got scared.

So the posted video of a peaceful Kyrgyz protester having been hired for 200 USD is very unlikely. He stated in Russian according to Ruzakhunov (Kazakh state media)
“Since I am unemployed, I agree to this,” said the man, who had scratches and bruises all over his badly swollen face. “On January 2, I flew to Almaty, they took me to an apartment in which there were also citizens of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.”

Unlikely since according to Eurasianet
https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstans-unrest-narrative-derailed-by-confusion-and-blackout

As soon as the broadcast was seen in neighboring Kyrgyzstan, however, local social media users noted that the man was a well-known and accomplished musician, Vikram Ruzakhunov. The head of the Kyrgyz State Committee for National Security, Kamchybek Tashiyev, expressed indignation over Ruzakhunov’s arrest.
“This is offensive to us. Immediately they started showing our citizen, and what is more, a very respectable citizen of our country – a musician,” Tashiyev told reporters. “To represent him as a terrorist is offensive to us.”
Kazakh security officials later tried to insist that the man in the filmed confession was not Ruzakhunov, although he had been identified as such by relatives and close friends. They said instead that the man in the footage was another Kyrgyz national called Zakir Uburov.
Social media users quickly dug up images and details about Uburov, who does indeed live and work in Almaty, but who looks unlike Ruzakhunov.
Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign Ministry said its consular workers in Kazakhstan have been denied access to its detained citizens, who are also without legal representation.

There will be more fabrications and confusing stories, blame games and what not.

What I do miss in all of these lofty geopolitical and military considerations is a precise account how it started.
I know from my sources in Kazakhstan that common people experience hardship relating to Covid and inflation sparked by presumably currency issues such as exchange rates, interest rates and money printing.
Does anybody have precise figures on these things?

Please consider: Why is apeaceful protester who went back to the apartment bruised, beaten?

“On January 1, I got a call from unknown men who offered me to take part the rally. They offered 90,000 tenge (about $200). Since I am unemployed in Kyrgyzstan, I agreed. They bought me a ticket. On January 2, I arrived in Almaty, and I was taken to an apartment. There were also citizens of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. I didn’t understand what they were talking about. When the rally started, I got scared and went back to the apartment, spent the night there. The next day I decided to go home and I was detained.”

Posted by: Manas | Jan 10 2022 7:26 utc | 187

Manas
If he had gone there for a concert he would have had something to prove it. I looked him up and he was in with american jazz, found a page of the types he associated with. Associated with swiss germans and most of all Americans. He got suckered and thought it was just a protest where a few might get arrested.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 10 2022 7:51 utc | 188

@Nil #185:

If things are just a bit similar in Kazakhstan, people just want to change policies, get fresh air after years and years of deceiving politics

Yeahhhhh, sure, and that’s why in just one day, January 5, in just one city, Almaty, the terrorists burned down the Mayor’s Office building, attacked multiple TV channels destroying their equipment, looted six weapons shops, attacked several police stations, including the central one (Almaty Department of Police), looted weapons from the armory of the national security service, attacked the airport blocking its runways and killed a dozen policemen, two of whom were beheaded. Mayor’s Office buildings, police departments and police cars were burnt in other cities, too, on the same day. What an incredible coincidence that all these people “just wanting to change policies” suddenly decided to act like terrorists.

Posted by: S | Jan 10 2022 8:07 utc | 189

Live, heads of state CSTO. Now Luka speaks, with his usual panache, "we have to act preemptively".

https://ria.ru/20220110/kazakhstan-1767101526.html

Ryabkov: Pick up your stuff and go back. PS: Stuff could be understood as shite.

https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/61db1a6d9a7947742c9cf23b?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fyandex.ru%2Fnews%2Fsearch%3Ftext%3D

Posted by: Paco | Jan 10 2022 8:12 utc | 190

Kazakh police continue to comb through the city and its suburbs, arresting the terrorists. In this video, they have found one with extremist Takfiri literature, grenades, an automatic rifle and a history of travel to Azerbaijan in 2014 and India in 2015, and another one with police IDs (unclear if fake or real) and a car full of rifles with scopes. I’m sure these people just wanted to get fresh air!

Posted by: S | Jan 10 2022 8:40 utc | 191

@ Peter AU1 | Jan 9 2022 23:00 utc | 173

That’s my analysis too. Erdogan doesn’t trust NATO and feelings are mutual. The Turkic people are of great interest, similar to Erdogan’s interest in the Tatars of Crimea, Azeris etc. The Ottoman Empire will not be revived in his lifetime.

Making Turkey great again: Erdogan throws out the rule book

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Making-Turkey-great-again-Erdogan-throws-out-the-rule-book

Posted by: Oui | Jan 10 2022 9:39 utc | 192

Commander Airborne Regiment is Colonel General Andrei Serdyukov set up a Rapid Reaction Force after Donbas and Crimea.

(Ukraine website) https://mil.in.ua/en/news/general-who-fought-against-ukraine-will-command-the-csto-troops-in-kazakhstan/

Was the pressure on border with Ukraine a camouflage for the developments in Kazakhstan? There have been ethnic tensions for many years and as late as December. There have been pogroms along the border with Kyrgyzstan.

Kazakhstan closes five of seven checkpoints on border with Kyrgyzstan - Kyrgyz authorities | Tass - Jan. 7, 2022 |

Almaty is a far outpost city and a 4-6 hour drive from Bishkek. Travel by minibus shared taxi costs 400 Kyrgyz Som (US $5). Must be an indication of poverty and inexpensive fuel price.

The Mandarin dialect that Dungans speak, which is infused with Farsi and Arabic loanwords, sets them apart in a region where Turkic tongues dominate. Many Dungans of Central Asia have family ties to China, especially western China, where they are known as Hui.

Beijing has targeted the group of some 10 million as part of a crackdown on Muslims that has also swept up Turkic groups like Uighurs, Kazakhs and Kyrgyz in the western Xinjiang region.

Some Kyrgyz and Kazakhs argue that Dungans have leveraged their linguistic and cultural heritage to benefit unfairly from trade with China, which floods the region with imports.

Posted by: Oui | Jan 10 2022 9:46 utc | 193

The Russian forces have taken with them advanced Leer-3 electronic warfare system, which includes specially configured Orlan-10 drones, jamming devices, etc.

Borders have been sealed. Flights from Almaty International airport had been suspended.

https://giantlyrics.eu/archives/68021

Posted by: Oui | Jan 10 2022 9:49 utc | 194

Oui | Jan 10 2022 9:49 utc | 193

I suspect the Leer system can also intercept communications and their origins. (ie smartphones), which might lead back to appartments and other bases and staging posts. Which is why the person above was arrested in his appartment/room.

Ruzakhunov: "They detained him after he returned to the apartment when he got scared."

Posted by: Stonebird | Jan 10 2022 10:29 utc | 195

Azerbaijan and military ears and eyes

In the military staff are persons working for foreign intelligence. From a well-informed personal account (NATO employee and former Turkey military) told me the division was between CIA and FSB. I’m sure this can be extended to Turkey and Israeli intelligence.

Same is true for interests in the Ukraine where all four states have a crucial role to play. In the Soviet frontline states, the FSB is entrenched and has a fair role to play. The outsider US can spend money and influence through NGOs, but will always be handicapped beyond SIGINT. The loss of the Afghanistan foothold is lasting for decades in Central Asia.

Policy of encirclement of the first Cold War (Baghdad Pact and CENTO) is likely the only means for the Five Eyes Nations today, except the periferie has massively increased. AUKUS is a logical step and there is no role for the EU in these acts but as bystander.

The feud between Iran and Israel has almost become a domestic Middle East affair for those nations, not a topic for the World stage. The play is for Asia and Central Asia … the 5 Eyes won’t give up easily … Taiwan next?

Baghdad Pact and CENTO

https://www.jstor.org/stable/4283420

Posted by: Oui | Jan 10 2022 10:40 utc | 196

“Neither Russia nor China, despite the rhetoric of the USA..... “

Framing is a tool of "perception management" attempting to deny that lateral change is a constant whose variables include, but are not limited to, trajectory and velocity, which simultaneously obfuscates that which is outwith, and that which is within, the frame.

Framing in nation states with sub-sets is often used to minimise the perception of whom the opponents are, and whom the framers are.

“The United States of America” are a complex net of coercive social relations not limited to, or to be conflated with, a current geo-political construct lying between Canada to the north and Mexico to the south.

Within nets principles of the more the wriggling, the more enmazement/restriction prevail.

As a consequence of these coercive social relations, increasingly their opponents are those seeking the transcendence of these coercive social relations through co-operation, most co-operation with “The United States of America” being limited to that which facilitates the complicity of “The United States of America” in their own transcendence through parallel interacting vectors.

The opponents of “The United States of America” are to be found throughout the world, not limited to “Russia” or “China” and since lateral change is a constant, the forms/modes/trajectories by/through which transcendence of coercive social relations is/will be facilitated will also be transcended co-operatively through time.

The rhetoric of “The United States of America” is based on linear quantitative hopes/nets, whilst the co-operations of their opponents are facilitated/informed by strategies to facilitate lateral qualitative transcendence.

Posted by: NotEuclid | Jan 10 2022 10:56 utc | 197

If the Russians knew about the coup attempt it is no wonder why there was no report of getting Tokajew. He was secure. Can not follow you here why you regard this as a mystery? Of course they wanted to get Tokajew.

Posted by: Jan | Jan 10 2022 10:59 utc | 198

Further to my post @176.

According to RT the protestor whose confession I quoted is Vikram Ruzakhunov, a jazz musician from Kyrgyzstan who is also well regarded in Kazakhstan. He appears to be totally innocent and it also appears that his confession was beaten out of him (this would not be too hard as he would want to protect his hands, ears and eyes above all else):

‘Terrorist’ detained in Kazakhstan identified as a famous foreign jazz musician

There have been protests about Vikram's treatment in Kyrgyzstan, the Kyrgyzstan government are upset and have protested his treatment.

“He’s not a terrorist. He’s an ordinary citizen, a musician, a decent man,” Kamchybek Tashiyev, head of the Kyrgyz State Committee for National Security, told reporters at the protest. “We checked through all of our channels this morning: Vikram Ruzakhunov didn’t participate in riots and street marches.”

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov shared a photo of Ruzakhunov on social media, vowing to “firmly defend and protect” Kyrgyz nationals who were “unfairly” held responsible for the unrest in the neighboring Central Asian country."

Vikram has since been released:

‘Terrorist’ jazz musician released by Kazakhstan

Many of you will have seen the report on RT about how professional, prepared and efficient a lot of the looting in Kazakhstan has been; so, random guys, like Vikram, look like patsy's being offered up to hide those really responsible. There needs to be a consideration that a substantial part of what happened may have been a well-prepared criminal (rather than political) endeavour.

The "Трио Викрама Рузахунова" (Vikram Ruzakhunov Trio), well worth a listen; Vikram is the keyboard player, he's a very good musician:

Трио Викрама Рузахунова (Vikram Ruzakhunov Trio)

Posted by: ADKC | Jan 10 2022 17:07 utc | 199

A different view & tone:
https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/321239/
Kazakhstan and Afghanistan set on fire by a common match...

The fire in Central Asia is just flaring up for us. The Security Council of the Russian Federation warned about the impending catastrophe two months ago
By Sergey Ischenko

ALSO:
https://svpressa.ru/politic/article/321196/
Explosion in Kazakhstan: Riot of workers, unemployed youth, poor suburbs
The resignation of the government in the list of requirements is only in fifth place...
By Mikhail Magid


Afghanistan
Hasht-e subh Daily
Claims to be the largest independent
newspaper, but I don't know anything about cashflows or influencers.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hashtesubhdaily

Posted by: MD | Jan 10 2022 20:54 utc | 200

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