Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 05, 2022

China's Excellent, Very Good Year

2021 was China's best year. Ever.

by Godfree Roberts*

Amidst global gloom, 2021 was the best year in modern Chinese history. Here’s what they accomplished:

  • Eliminated extreme poverty.
  • Reached 96% home ownership.
  • Kept Covid death rate at 0.6% of America’s.

  • Grew the economy $2 trillion PPP, the fastest growth ever.
  • Became the richest country on earth.
  • Became the world’s biggest overseas investor.
  • Became the world’s largest movie market.
  • Produced nearly one new billionaire and 300 millionaires every workday.
  • Completed new train lines in seven countries, including Laos’ first.
  • Ran 15,000 cargo trains to and from Europe, up 30% YoY.
  • Joined RCEP trade pact, with 30% of global GDP and of the world’s population.
  • Sold $140 billion retail online in 24 hours (Amazon’s record is $5 billion).
  • Launched the first central bank digital currency.
  • Dominated scientific research and issued the most patents of any country.

  • Built three exascale computers that won the Gordon Bell prize for high performance computing.
  • Built a programmable quantum computer 10,000x faster than Google’s Sycamore.
  • Operated the first integrated, 3,000-mile, commercial, quantum communications network.
  • Brought online two gas-cooled Pebble Bed nuclear power plants.
  • Fired up two thorium-fueled reactors, eliminating uranium from power generation.
  • Released a Covid treatment that reduces hospitalizations and deaths 78%.
  • Made 55% of global energy savings.
  • Generated 1 terawatt of renewable energy.
  • Installed one-million 5G base stations, giving Tibet better 5G service than New York.
  • Communicated between satellites via lasers, 1,000x faster than radio waves.
  • Operated the world’s most powerful solid rocket engine, with 500 tonnes thrust.
  • Flew three hypersonic missiles around the planet.
  • Released a fractional orbital bombardment missile from another missile at 17,000 mph.
  • Simultaneously commissioned three warships, becoming the world’s biggest navy.

Expect China to maintain this pace through 2022 by launching, among other things, the first, greenfield, automated, 21st century city for six million knowledge workers. With 70% woods and lakes, the loudest sound will be birdsongs.

* Godfree Roberts wrote Why China Leads the World: Talent at the Top, Data in the Middle, Democracy at the Bottom and publishes the newsletter Here Comes China.

Posted by b on January 5, 2022 at 7:39 UTC | Permalink

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This is an excellent summary, thank you. The clear and concise points ram the overall message home. I think the only response from the usual suspects will be, as you pointed out in a recent post, at what cost. Well it always was a rhetorical question.

Not mentioned in the summary (not read the whole report yet) is the recent firing up of the artificial sun which

ran at 70 million degrees Celsius for more than 17 minutes [...] [which] lays a solid scientific and experimental foundation towards the running of a fusion reactor

Way to go, there is hope yet...

Posted by: Idiocrates | Jan 5 2022 7:51 utc | 1

"Installed one-million 5G base stations, giving Tibet better 5G service than New York."

This one describes the current denial in western society at best.

Posted by: Alay Chen | Jan 5 2022 7:54 utc | 2

Good for them.

As Belt&Road, SCO, RECEP, SPFS-CIPS and the PetroCNY-AuXchange move forward, we should start seeing CHN -AND- her Eastern Hemisphere Trade Partners Prosper.

Big Difference when STEM Types are involved in the Aristocracy.

I welcome these Trends. The Multi-Polar World bringing forth Options and Competition for Goods and Services

Posted by: IronForge | Jan 5 2022 8:31 utc | 3

Actually in that last link, two of the warships referred to were built for export to Pakistan and Thailand while the third was commissioned by the Chinese navy. These details are even more significant because they demonstrate that Chinese naval architecture has reached a standard that other nations not only find impressive but also want and are prepared to pay for. At what cost, though? Well, at the cost of the US warship export industry!

Posted by: Jen | Jan 5 2022 8:55 utc | 4


What is the point of 5G again? Seems to be just another aspect of techno-dystopia.

It took China less than a century to go from a traditional society built on family bonds to an atomised individualistic one with very low birth rates. Future looks far better for Islamic countries than it does for China or the West.

Posted by: SPAMRAAM | Jan 5 2022 9:36 utc | 5

World's most advanced censorship and surveillance regime with no freedom and a punitive social credit scheme. I admire the work ethic and manufacturing prowess but would rather live in a cabin the woods than submit to such a regime. Sadly, while losing ground in technology, our elites are catching up with their own repression and Woke overthrow of Constitutional rights.

Posted by: Fran Macadam | Jan 5 2022 9:52 utc | 6

Meanwhile the Canadistani propagandist Gwynne Dyer is back to prophesying the inevitable and imminent collapse of China.

33 years of constant failure don't seem to have blunted his appetite for this prediction.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 5 2022 10:49 utc | 7

Covid chart nicely shows how China underreports deaths and "capitalist" countries overreport them because of hospital profits. I don't know what to think about Australia.

Posted by: hes | Jan 5 2022 10:56 utc | 8

Great news from China,

What a success story in such a short time.

My mum and dad visited China in the late 1970's as guests of the Chinese government. They were closely watched as suspicious foreigners.

They told me in the very outlining provinces, way beyond where the local people hadn't seen foreigners before, and way beyond where they women only dressed in peasant pants, the extreme poverty was palpable.

Congratulations China for turning that extreme squalor and poverty around.

While America wasted $ trillions on wars in the Middle East for the Bandit State, China invested a similar amount on productive capacity and infrastructure, and now China has a return on it's investment.

Only the jealous and spiteful would complain about those wise Chinese decisions. It's time for the US to reconsider it's strategy.

Posted by: Paul | Jan 5 2022 11:03 utc | 9

Jeez didn’t take long for the flying blue monkey troll army to be deployed here did it?
I mean I was writing my post on the previous post when b uploaded this new one, hence I just seen it - and the response already. 🤣

Anyway Godfree Roberts list is heartwarming for any true human heart that can raise above a basic racism. I think I read it on another thread?

What is not in the list or I didn’t spot it, is the progress into Space.

While nasa and esa appear to have collapsed into a pool of drooling bewilderment the great Leap into the Beyond is being made by these who know how such progress is achievable . Meanwhile the original Masters are not completely unhappy about that heavy lifting being done by the Eurasians - they expect to own it all in the end anyway. As they have always done throughout history through plunder and war and financial control and avarice of betrayers of their own peoples who are promised ‘A Seat at the Ancient Table’.

The space stations, the long duration in orbit astronauts or whatever they are called, and now the MOONBASE in a joint effort with allies that will in true SCO fashion be up and running within the decade!

Finally the man on the moon race from the sixties will get a worthy response.

Humanity will retread that small step and make it permanent.

I do hope there is no exploitation of that moon - which daily moves further away from the Earth and could be easily destabilised by reduction of its mass or impetus of its motion by explosives - what would we do without tides!

Posted by: D.G. | Jan 5 2022 11:08 utc | 10

@6 Fran Macadam

I agree with your sentiment on surveillance and social management. I also would rather live in a cabin in the woods than submit to that. Full disclosure: I find cabins in woods quite attractive, actually.

And there lies the great, as yet unrealized, promise of American individualism. How to do great things which require enormous team-work, and still retain your individualism? Our freedoms are supposed to confer great powers upon us, but they seem like they're working against us quite often.

China seems to have more evolved leadership than we do. The Chinese seem to be willing to trust that leadership. And we have rotten leaders, and we don't trust them, but we elect them anyway, and worse yet, we do as they say even if we didn't elect them.

I think our problems are centered on the nature of our own character.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Jan 5 2022 11:22 utc | 11

Re: B,

you missed one of the most exciting developments, average life expectancy in China is now longer than in the US Life Expectancy in China surpasses US. For decades we've been taught that a rising life expectancy was a sign of increasing wealth and the general prosperity of the population. This development will really stick in the US's craw! I wonder how the US elite will try to spin this latest evidence of their utter incompetence and failure!

Posted by: Kadath | Jan 5 2022 12:15 utc | 12

sorry link didn't populate correctly ">"> Life Expectancy in China surpasses US

Posted by: Kadath | Jan 5 2022 12:17 utc | 13

So China’s claim to have her CO2 levels under control by 2060 appear to be far more certain than anything in the west. Thorium Reactors in the offing, Fusion reactors in the mid to long term becoming a reality plus much more efficient Uranium powered reactors, in which I’m sure Russia is partaking in the exchange of technologies, means the west will be as backward as China was at the turn of the 20th century in 50 years if the PTB don’t grow up, lose their infantile ideological hypocrisy and start getting with it.

Posted by: Beibdnn | Jan 5 2022 12:22 utc | 14

hes | Jan 5 2022 10:56 utc | 8

Nice summary of the Covid Co-creators post 'MAD experiment in BSL-2 lab/3' reactions: more totalitarianism fueled by profits and national ego pride. The power mad 0.001%'s tools.

China will miss the CO2 fear boat but doesn't need it: already 100% stitched up. Dummies like Western Europe, Canada and Australia follow the blind Biden.

Posted by: Antonym | Jan 5 2022 12:34 utc | 15

[China] Kept Covid death rate at 0.6% of America’s.

What statistical formula was used to calculate this?
Do we even know?
Did we stop to question it?
Are we even allowed to question it?

How much weight in this statistical formula is given to the {P} function?
P being Propaganda Message.
The US of BigPharma has decided that a high death rate is good fear porn and advances their message.
China has decided that a low death rate advances their totalitarian message.

Am I wrong?
Am I banned/deleted for asking questions?

Posted by: librul | Jan 5 2022 12:37 utc | 16

Again: barf

Posted by: Barf | Jan 5 2022 12:41 utc | 17

Wow zowie, 500 new billionaires and some bitchin' new weapons emerge from the pandemic year. Well, I think we should all pat ourselves on the back, 'cause without all of us buying all that Chinese stuff, that list of accomplishments would look much different.

But hey...out of poverty and into the poison air.

Posted by: john | Jan 5 2022 12:51 utc | 18

If their housing market can survive the Evergrande collapse, then they will be doing fine. And reminding us that Too Big to Fail means being Too Big to Remain Unregulated.

The day that Winnie The Pooh is allowed again in China will be the day I can start seeing them in a more positive light.

Posted by: Malchik Ralf | Jan 5 2022 12:56 utc | 19


"Future looks far better for Islamic countries than it does for China or the West."

So when are you leaving?

Posted by: Lawrence Miller | Jan 5 2022 13:05 utc | 20

Posted by: Fran Macadam | Jan 5 2022 9:52 utc | 6

You appear to ne under an illusion both of your own "freedoms" and those of the Chinese. One's relationship to their society is complex, especially in societies that value the interconnectedness of life, unlike Western ego based fallacies.

Poor you. I hope you can afford propane to heat your cabin.

Posted by: New Guy | Jan 5 2022 13:08 utc | 21

WOW China and Russia have leaders that are working for every citizen and in Amerika the potus works for the 1%. How refreshing.

Posted by: jo6pac | Jan 5 2022 13:30 utc | 22

Love all of the butthurt and sour grapes in this thread! Wounded egos always delight me, particularly when those egos are based upon nothing more than delusion.

"The Chinese published more hard STEM papers than the US? So what! We published more papers on Diversity Studies, and that is WAY more important! We all KNOW that no engineering team is any good unless you prioritize diversity over competence! If your development team doesn't include someone whose gender identity is mountain panda then your development team sucks!"

The delusion in the West is incredibly durable. Some of the Sinophobic posts here are likely being made by American MBAs living in their cars and pooping in plastic bags.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 5 2022 13:49 utc | 23

Thinking that the low COVID death rate in China has more to do with their use of hydroxychloroquine at the outset of the pandemic than this new antibody treatment. Of course, we in the west are not supposed to know about the success of off the shelf drugs like HCQ & ivermectin in treating COVID. The only solution for us is the dangerous mRNA/DNA garbage coming from Pfizer, Moderna, & J&J.

Posted by: Zim | Jan 5 2022 13:51 utc | 24

In the last decade, China increased the production of electricity from coal by 1 TWh, additionally expanding steel production and other industries consuming coal directly. Further growth will require big changes in economic strategy to make GDP much less energy intensive. So-called clean renewables can contribute only small fraction, given the unreliability we witnessed in Europe this year, and inherent cost of matching the production that is dictated by Nature by the rhythms of human needs (at least doubling the effective cost of wind and solar in my imperfect estimate).

Nevertheless, planners of China showed to be superior to the collective West, in part because the ability to plan in the West atrophied, together with the structure of political systems (there is a variety of crappy variants).

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 5 2022 13:52 utc | 25

Oh yeah, and regarding that death rate chart...after the USA's abysmal results, we have Italy in second place, where one of the most stringent lockdown and masking policies has been in place almost from the beginning. Why just recently, and with an almost 90% vaccination rate, they re-mandated the wearing of masks outside.

Posted by: john | Jan 5 2022 13:54 utc | 26

I hope you can afford propane to heat your cabin.

Posted by: New Guy | Jan 5 2022 13:08 utc | 21

I frequently hike in the woods where you can see "hunters' cabins". They have propane storage of various sizes, but you can clearly rely on wood when you live in the woods. Thus heating is not the top problem. To actually live in deeper forest you must survive winter in some distance from roads that have snow removed, and a much larger distance to the nearest supermarket. Doable*, but no wonder that those cabins are used for visits rather than living.

*Easy solution would be to put your bicycle on a snowmobile, reach the exposed pavement, and trek to the supermarket, say, two hour roundtrip with a serious uphill on the way back. Great exercise once a week.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Jan 5 2022 14:01 utc | 27

Posted by: SPAMRAAM | Jan 5 2022 9:36 utc | 5

They can make more cheaper, easier, and centralized systems be it for services or operations of tech stuffs.
Instead of using multiple computers you can use one powerful computer connected through high speed data links essentially let the other less powerful computer terminals enjoy their capabilities without the need to possess them.

Posted by: Lucci | Jan 5 2022 14:16 utc | 28

But can we trust the numbers ? ? ?

The real proof is for people who visit China and see it for their themselves.
In the late 1990's, my parents, very open minded liberals, visited China and the story of it being dirty was true but that was 30yrs ago.

For people who have been to both countries recently, what is your opinion regarding the quality of life when you breathe the air, the safety, see people and see the infrastructure.

You don't have to stick to my list, just saying that when the Think Tanks tell you to not believe your eyes then you know that things really have changed.

Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Jan 5 2022 14:24 utc | 29

I always thought the Chinese were not allowed to own a home/condo? Asking

Posted by: Rodney | Jan 5 2022 14:32 utc | 30

@Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Jan 5 2022 14:24 utc | 29

I cannot answer your question about today.
However, years ago I worked with an associate that used to work in China.
In China they had worked with chemicals that would go into electronics.
They related that after many years they went back to China for a visit
and everyone in their work section was now dead. They had all died of cancer.

Posted by: librul | Jan 5 2022 14:38 utc | 31

Sure it looks fantastic in virtually every category...


Sorry, couldn't resist.

Posted by: J Swift | Jan 5 2022 14:41 utc | 32

@Posted by: Rodney | Jan 5 2022 14:32 utc | 30

Not correct. In China, people will even buy an ocean side vacation home as an investment.

Posted by: librul | Jan 5 2022 14:41 utc | 33

@Rodney #30 I always thought the Chinese were not allowed to own a home/condo? Asking

Private home ownership is allowed, although the mechanisms of property ownership are different: land ownership (for farming, for example) is not allowed but cities are allowed to sell off part of their land to raise money, and the real estate market plays a big role in China's economy, something like 30% of GDP, which is why the government has to ensure that the Evergrande collapse does not create too many big waves that could swamp the real estate and financial markets.

Posted by: mal | Jan 5 2022 14:48 utc | 34

yep the list goes on and on. Successful space launch every week. Rapid buildout in every form of energy there is. Building chip fabs like crazy. Indigenous jet engines now good enough to use - look for massive scale-up. Indigenous maximum-scale big power plant equipment deployed. Supplies most of work kids Covid vaccines.

Posted by: ptb | Jan 5 2022 15:08 utc | 35

auto typo ... "supplies most of the world's covid vaccines"

Posted by: ptb | Jan 5 2022 15:09 utc | 36

@ NK 35
re: Everybody wants to leave China, from Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang to Taiwan.
Well many did leave China. . .
from the web-- "In 2019, approximately 169.2 million outbound journeys were recorded in China, up from 47.6 million in 2009. The majority of Chinese travel overseas was for personal reasons. Overall, a significant number of outbound tourists resided in the larger cities in the country."
. . and as far as we know they all came back.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 5 2022 15:19 utc | 37

@ NK 39
re: "Biggest navy": they don't even have a real aircraft carrier.
Aircraft carriers are obsolete because guided missiles now out-distance aircraft, just as in former times carriers obsoleted battleships because aircraft outdistanced indirect cannon fire.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 5 2022 15:24 utc | 38

@ NK 39
re: "renewable energy": they are mainly building coal and nuclear.
from the web: China not only leads the world in terms of total wind and solar energy installed — with a total of 288 gigawatts of wind energy capacity and 253 gigawatts of solar energy capacity at the end of 2020 — it also has positioned itself to be the primary supplier of the clean economy.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 5 2022 15:26 utc | 39

China's economic growth rate is fiction

Posted by: Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 15:15 utc | 39

Yeah, that China is the world's biggest trading partner of almost every country is also a fiction, and it is a fiction that it overtook the US in Foreign Direct Investment.

Actually it has a large room to grow with 40 % of its people still living in rural areas and again around 40 % of the population not yet plugged into the internet.

>>their real estate market is close to collapse

Not with 40 % of the population still living in rural areas

>>their growth depends on exports which are stalling

That was the case 10 years ago. Have you being living under a rock? Foreign trade (import + export) now represents 39 % of chinese GDP and that share is falling every year. This dependence is lower than in "developed" countries such as in Europe. ASEAN is the biggest trading partner of China, overtaking the US.

On stalling exports, actually China gained export market share in 2021.

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 5 2022 15:33 utc | 40

@ NK 39
re: [China] exports which are stalling.
. . .from Bloomberg"

China’s exports and imports grew faster than expected in November, with both hitting records as external demand surged ahead of the year-end holidays and domestic production rebounded on an easing power crunch.
Exports rose 22% in dollar terms from a year earlier to almost $326 billion, while imports grew almost 32% to about $254 billion, the customs administration said Tuesday. Economists had forecast exports to grow by 20.3% and imports to increase by 21.5%. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 5 2022 15:35 utc | 41

@ NK 47
re: a totalitarian one-party state with a dictator for life
You read too much US media, as none of that is true. In contrast, the US "two-party" state has given us endless war and the poorest health services in the developed world, for starters.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 5 2022 15:40 utc | 42

True story:

Last time I was in China I stayed for a few days in Shenzhen. I don't normally stay in fancy five star hotels when I travel but since I was just passing through and someone else was paying, I stayed at a nice one near Shenzhen Luohu Station. Lots of foreigners on business trips and tourists on five-cities-in-four-days package tours.

Anyhow, I spent my first night back carousing on the town and trying to get familiar with the place again (turn your back on Shenzhen for a few minutes and it is like a whole new city when you face it again). Got back to the hotel in the small hours of the morning and the streets in the area were nearly deserted. Got some selfie pics from the empty pedestrian walkway over a wide eight lane boulevard with only half a dozen cars on it.

I had a meeting in the morning, so I hurried to my room and grabbed a couple hours of shut-eye. I was out again at 8 AM to see if I could find my own way to the meeting using public transit, but now the traffic, both pedestrian and vehicular, was mad. The wide boulevard was packed and the pedestrian overpasses filled with people with destinations in mind. No small number were tourists. It was on one of those overpasses that was completely empty a few hours earlier that I noticed a disturbance in the flow of foot traffic, like a rock in a small river. Getting nearer that disturbance turned out to be an old woman sitting on the deck of the overpass dressed in rags. Near the old woman was a cardboard box from which peeked an equally rag-clad small child. The old woman clutched a trash can that she appeared to be fishing scraps from to feed the small child.

From initial appearances the two looked to have set up long term residence on the pedestrian overpass, but I had crossed it a few hours earlier and it had been desolately empty. My curiosity piqued I looked more closely. I hadn't noticed at first, but the trash can the old woman was getting her breakfast from was a pristine stainless wastepaper basket; clearly office equipment. A quick scan around revealed no obvious places where such a wastepaper basket could have been filched from, so obviously the old woman had brought it with her, along with the cardboard box and the child.

My studies of this strange scene were interrupted by loud braying, in English no less, from a rotund hambeast of a woman. "This is a disgrace! Everyone is just walking past and ignoring this poor starving woman and her child! Oh how I hate the Chinese! Soulless and uncaring!"

Her child? I doubt if the trash can lady had any kids under the age of forty.

I asked the bellowing woman, an Australian tourist, if she noticed anything odd about the scene.

"Odd? I should say so! Everyone is just walking past like this poor woman and child don't even exist!"

I directed the tourist's attention to the pristine trash can that contained no trash, only two Styrofoam take-out boxes hidden under a plastic bag, but large tourist lady would have none of it. The conclusion she had jumped to was the only one she would consider.

I asked some Shenzhen denizens about the scene and they too agreed that it was disgraceful. There was no homelessness in Shenzhen and the whole thing was just an act, and not a very good act at that. The old woman's rags were just thrown on over regular clothes, and the child in the cardboard box could be seen playing games on a smartphone. The illusion of poverty was one that took a dedicated suspension of disbelief to maintain. The locals thought it was shameful to try to project such an illusion ("She has no face!"), but just as shameful to fall for it.

I bring this up because you know that the only story this tourist person would tell on her return to Kangaroo-land would be the fiction about the horrible poverty she witnessed in Shenzhen, and the compassion for that poverty that she was sure the Chinese people lacked. That delusional worldview doubtless spread like cancer back in Australia: "Yeah, my aunt's neighbor said all she saw when she went to China was super poverty! People eating out of trash cans and living in cardboard boxes!"

That is where some of the delusion we see about China comes from: Shameful and undiluted stupidity masquerading as concern.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 5 2022 15:42 utc | 43

This one caught my eye:

"Communicated between satellites via lasers, 1,000x faster than radio waves."

The linked article is paywalled, but I'd guess the DATA was TRANSFERRED faster due to higher bandwidth, rather than a discovery of light that can travel much much faster than, um, light.

Posted by: John Perry | Jan 5 2022 15:47 utc | 44

"...The US of BigPharma has decided that a high death rate is good fear porn and advances their message.
China has decided that a low death rate advances their totalitarian message.

"Am I wrong?
"Am I banned/deleted for asking questions?" librul@16

These are not questions, they are very idiotic assertions.
The notion that the US oligarchy exaggerates the extremely embarrassing and shameful, number of deaths for which it is largely responsible, is very convenient for the business interests which sponsor trolling like yours. It also lets government off the hook.
The idea that China is covering up large numbers of covid deaths is straight out of the Cold War playbook.
In sum: behind this self pitying, "am I banned" appeal to our better instincts, you are telling us precisely what the ruling class wants us to believe.
I would do worse than ban you: I'd leave your trolling in full public view so that your name is associated with the disgrace of apologising for a ruling class that is quite happy to watch millions of vulnerable people die of a condition that proper public health management, as practised in China, could eradicate.
For the bourgeoisie however, public health costs money, and the lives of poor, elderly and Third World people don't matter.

Posted by: bevin | Jan 5 2022 15:52 utc | 45

Posted by: Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 15:42 utc | 53

And Covid is not gone in 2022, infact i'm hearing it is causing big trouble to the US economy as there are too many ill people not working, children not in school (which as per studies causes long term dumbing down of the population)..

As for the real estate situation, it is a controlled demolition by the government getting some steam out it, since it does not want to repeat the US fate of 2008 collapse. The overall drop in GDP growth for 20220 will be around 0,3 % of gdp as per median expert estimates, from 5,6 % to 5,3 %.

The government has anounced that it wants to decrease the share of the real estate sector in favor of high tech manufacturing and green exports, which are good growth multipliers.

Anyway, the country has a large room for urbanisation, since too many people still live in villages, compared to modern countries. So you will have to wait for your real estate collapse for after 2035 at least.

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 5 2022 15:53 utc | 46

Ray Dalio provided a high-level summary covering the cycles of empires, the major stages of an empire's life-cycle, the dynamic between one aging empire / world power and the ascendancy of its successor. He also covered a bit of the investment strategies one uses at various stages of this dynamic.

Ray Dalio describes the U.S - China context.

Ray Dalio runs Bridgewater Associates, one of the biggest Wall Street hedge funds. He helps people with billions make more billions.

Ray is worried that the apple cart might get upset, so he's trying to get the attention of decision-makers and powerful people so things don't come undone.

The link is about 15 mins reading. It's got some financial terms and concepts in it, but all of them are worth wading through and understanding. Especially if you happen to have some money saved for retirement.

Ray speaks clearly and makes good use of pictures. His message is relevant no matter what country you happen to live in.

Posted by: Tom Pfotzer | Jan 5 2022 15:55 utc | 47

Posted by: Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 15:59 utc | 62

And with China "manufacturing stuff for the world" this is just 22 % of its GDP and dropping. Hint about what this means - chinese retail market overtook the US retail market.

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 5 2022 16:04 utc | 48

LOL! This "Niall K" character needs to get out of his parents' basement once in a while.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 5 2022 16:05 utc | 49

@ Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 15:59 utc | 62 who seems to have a counter argument to everything.

I am the MoA barfly focused on ownership and management of finance. How about if I say that I think that China's public ownership of the tools of finance is a better model than the private ownership of finance in the West.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 5 2022 16:08 utc | 50

@ NK 58
re: all of China's neighbors seek help from the USA
That's not true. The US has been totally unsuccessful enlisting ASEAN nations to its ant-China cause. The Quad has been touted as a US success but none of its meeting transcripts mentions China. India going its own way has also been a US failure. So the US is left with occupied Korea and Japan and puppet Australia, which will also be occupied.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 5 2022 16:08 utc | 51

those who mostly read MSM can only have cognitive dissonance.

Posted by: mastameta | Jan 5 2022 16:08 utc | 52

Just a small stats update: There are 71 comments so far and Niall K. did 19 of them. NK must work hard today and may get some nice overtime...

Posted by: LuRenJia | Jan 5 2022 16:12 utc | 53

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 5 2022 16:04 utc | 64

>>the world moves one

You better learn something new about the effects of western lockdowns and many ill people have on economies.

Hint - children not going to school as in the West leads to irreversible loss in cognitive skills and long term psychological problems.

>>Sweden did nothing and had no problems.

swedish GDP dropped in 2020, unlike China's

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 5 2022 16:13 utc | 54

NK is doing some god tier mental gymnastics.

Posted by: mstk | Jan 5 2022 16:13 utc | 55

@ LuRenJia | Jan 5 2022 16:12 utc | 72 with the notice about the newbie barfly....grin

I am just trying to focus on the issues and we will see how they respond to my civilization contrast......but yeah, some serious trolling...are we sure it is just one person?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 5 2022 16:16 utc | 56

real estate: again you have no clue.

Posted by: Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 16:06 utc | 66

On the contrary, 40 % not living in cities means that there is huge room for urbanisation. That percentage is 15 % in developed countries.

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 5 2022 16:16 utc | 57

Posted by: mastameta | Jan 5 2022 16:08 utc | 70

Yeah, it’s what inevitably leads to paroxysms of seething cope as we have just witnessed vomited onto the forums today. When base reality fundamentally contradicts the comforting manufactured narrative, the only recourse is to chant the dogmas as loudly as possible, as if that would then will the beliefs into reality. Niall may have the same worldview of the more famous imperialist of the same name (Niall Ferguson I mean), but none of the self-control to at least play the part of effective consent-manufacturer.

Posted by: J D | Jan 5 2022 16:17 utc | 58

@ Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 16:13 utc | 74 who responded to my question about public/private finance by writing

@psycho 68: that's a shaky hypothesis. Certainly failed in the USSR.

LOL And you expect people to take you seriously?

b will ban your trolling soon....have a nice life....please come back when you can engage seriously in discussion of reality instead of your drive by shaky hypothesis

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 5 2022 16:20 utc | 59

The US and a lot of westerners are baffled by China because Chinese are not like westerners. They're not like us so that's bad!! . .they say.
. . .from the web--
"Confucianism, the teachings of Confucius during 500 BC, has played an important role in forming Chinese character, behavior and way of living. Its primary purpose is to achieve harmony, the most important social value."
This explains why China stresses social values and harmony, thus avoiding the behavior of the ridiculous, largely unliked US Congress for one example.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 5 2022 16:21 utc | 60

Where did this Niall K. guy come from? CIA central? Or the State Department?

I do agree though that China will have a difficult time achieving Zero COVID with the likes of the US and its idiotic "health" policies and leaky vaccines contributing to increased infections all around the globe. In any case, if we are lucky, Omicron may take care of COVID for us by reducing the disease to another common cold coronavirus.

As for the slow down of China's economy, Michael Hudson explains towards the end of this interview with Ben Norton.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Jan 5 2022 16:26 utc | 61

@NK 83
Not a single sentence in your post is true. That must be some kind of a record

Posted by: mstk | Jan 5 2022 16:26 utc | 62

"If a giant meteor falls on Beijing, then Beijing will be destroyed! China is doomed! Doomed I tell you!!"

Wounded delusion-based ego is hilarious, isn't it?

The weird conviction that the Three Gorges Dam "almost failed" (and Beijing was "almost hit by a meteor", for some definitions of "almost") suggests that the poster gets its narratives from the "Epoch Times" and only the "Epoch Times".

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 5 2022 16:29 utc | 63

@NK 85
"No criticism allowed" as Twitter bans "fringe" US politicians, dissident scientists and Pelosi stock tracker.

Posted by: mstk | Jan 5 2022 16:29 utc | 64

Good Article - Thanks -1421 The Year China Mapped the World - a great read.

Posted by: GMC | Jan 5 2022 16:30 utc | 65

Posted by: Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 16:20 utc | 80

On the contary, you yourself have no clue. New cities are being built because the country is urbanising, unlike western countries who are already urbanised and have no room to build more cities further.

China is on the level of the US in 1940 in urbanisation level, which is why the country has been growing fast and will be growing faster than the US up to 2050, as per the vast majority of estimates.

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 5 2022 16:38 utc | 66

@D.G. | Jan 5 2022 11:08 utc | 10

I do hope there is no exploitation of that moon - which daily moves further away from the Earth and could be easily destabilised by reduction of its mass or impetus of its motion by explosives - what would we do without tides!

Well, it's not that easy to reduce the mass of the Moon significantly :-)

I once wrote some software which simulated the N-body system of the solar system. I started the simulation with realistic parameters, but then gave the Earth the same mass as the Sun. Interesting stuff happened:
Gravity simulation: Earth and Sun as a double star

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 5 2022 16:41 utc | 67

This graphic here is interesting for those who want to understand the east-west divide.
cultural differences
west (blue) vs. east (red)
especially "Relative status of the leader"

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 5 2022 16:43 utc | 68

This graphic here is interesting for those who want to understand the east-west divide.
cultural differences
west (blue) vs. east (red)
especially "Relative status of the leader"

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 5 2022 16:43 utc | 69

Posted by: Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 16:17 utc | 79

>>Swedish GDP dropped because of lockdowns in other Western countries

These foreign lockdowns sure did not cause a recession in China or some other countries (Turkey, Egypt, Taiwan, etc.) So they fucked up something.

Btw economic downgrades incoming on Covid wave in the US and Germany. Yeah, surely China will help its economy if it emulates them :)

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 5 2022 16:46 utc | 70

Posted by: Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 16:29 utc | 88

I cannot see that there is any evidence that China's covid strategy has failed, and you certainly have not provided any evidence that it has.

You write, "If China continues, it will destroy itself." You mean the US plans to nuke it, committing murder suicide? Certainly, the virus won't destroy it. I am not sure how it is going to destroy itself. You sound like that Karl Rove fella, not only trying to create his own fake reality (evidence free, of course), but convincing himself it truly is reality.

Even Ray Dalio seems bullish on China, much to the chagrin of the corporate media.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Jan 5 2022 16:52 utc | 71

Silly fool (that's not ad hominem because it is true) is spouting all of the standard jingoism tropes about China that troglodyte basement-dwellers are programmed with in the West. When one does that while pretending to only be concerned for the welfare of the Chinese it is called "concern trolling". The thing is, I think our concern troll might actually believe the jingoism narratives he is regurgitating, which would make him more of an idiot than a troll.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 5 2022 16:53 utc | 72

Posted by: Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 16:36 utc | 94
Sure bud which is why you're only speaking with US imperialist narrative instead of something real. Definitely not a shill. Then again you could've been just another insecure sinophobes in US that continually marginalized in their own country.

As far for the rest of the commenters. Please don't feed the troll.

Posted by: Lucci | Jan 5 2022 16:54 utc | 73

@Posted by: bevin | Jan 5 2022 15:52 utc | 59

Was somewhat amused by your rant. After posting did you fall off
your soapbox, land on some peanut shells, and then get assaulted
with the handbag of the lady that feeds the park's squirrels,
as she thought you were trying to pilfer her squirrel's nuts?

If not, you probably tried real hard. Better luck next time.

You ranted as you fell:
"The notion that the US oligarchy exaggerates the extremely embarrassing and shameful,
number of deaths for which it is largely responsible, is very convenient for the business
interests which sponsor trolling like yours. It also lets government off the hook."

Some considerations that you ignored:

They can (and have!) counted, for example, people whose
main cause of death was unrelated to covid but their blood tests showed them to be covid-postive.
There is a difference between dieing *with* covid and dieing *from* covid.
They inflate numbers as they want to put the fear of G-d in people so that they get vaccinated.

On the flip side of the equation, people that have suffered side effects from the vaccine
could go uncounted as covid deaths. And there should certainly be a day of reckoning for these deaths.

Early treatments for covid have been obstructed in the US of BigPharma, there should certainly be a
day of reckoning for these deaths as well.
The fact that China has suffered Cold War tactics does not purify them. Be objective, Mr Peanut Eater.

Posted by: librul | Jan 5 2022 17:00 utc | 74

@NK 104
You mean China is no longer occupied by Japan? Shocking.

Posted by: mstk | Jan 5 2022 17:08 utc | 75

The moderator blocked me, classic censorship.

@passer: you have no clue about China real estate. It's not the 1940s anymore.

@passer: Economies that exported medical stuff and tech did best in 2020. Countries that depend on tourism did worst. Sweden did perfectly fine. They had the best strategy by far.

@blue: you have no clue what is going on in China. It's the last country on earth following the delusional "zero COVID" fantasy, totally shutting down its mega cities. Forever??

Posted by: Niall | Jan 5 2022 17:10 utc | 76

"If they continue this remarkable success, they will destroy their country."

What an idiot!

Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 5 2022 17:10 utc | 77

Wow this NK dude has so much butthurt, after getting RSI on scrolling pass so much horse manure I'm now genuinely concerned about his mental wellbeing.

NK, I can't fault your enthusiasm, however. Here, have a cookie. And a job application to epoch times.

You're of course entitled to belive in whatever lala land BS you like but face it, even if only half of what Godfree Roberts reported was true, its still extraordinary.

Please, stick around. Like a ruler is useless without graduations your input is needed like roadkills on the freeway of progress.

I have reserved a special place for you along side Antonym, though i have to give you a special effort prize for your persistence. Bravo.

I do thank you for the entertainment on my otherwise dull day at work.

Posted by: A.L. | Jan 5 2022 17:14 utc | 78

Great entertainment this morning provided by an excellent talking doll groomed well by the Outlaw US Empire's BigLie Media and inadequate educational system.

Infographic: "China's road to herd immunity". Meanwhile, the Outlaw US Empire refuses to allow its citizens to get inoculated by the best vaccine's on the market while restricting them to the most dangerous.

The performing doll doesn't seem to know its US History as its 19th Century industrial takeoff was mimicked by China, although China refused to allow its public financial utility to be privatized unlike the USA which is why Neoliberalism was able to gain its purchase and eventually ruin the USA's industrial and societal capacity.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 5 2022 17:16 utc | 79

I can't wait for our CBDC! Then we will be just as prosperous as the Chinese.

The bar is such a wonderful source of opinion, where what's good for the Chinese goose is good for the Global gander. Wonderful apples to apples commentary.

And so my theory on old socialist remnants held true: when multipolarity emerges and the Anglosphere empire is denigrated to the point of irrelevancy, there would be scant reason for these bastions of needed geopolitical commentary to even exist. But that would not stop them from extending their shelf-life by adopting all kinds of pro-centralizing views.

b, do you think that the Chinese way can just transfer over to the west, to overlay its framework on us?

Or are you merely just clicking your heels at the thought of the empire's destruction?

I don't know about you anymore. I am so sad but have to take my leave. You sow too much confusion. Or are too cowardly to spell out how you really think about the topics that are closing in on us westerners like an iron maiden.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jan 5 2022 17:18 utc | 80

Posted by: Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 17:06 utc | 104

I can't call a -2.9 GDP % recession in Sweden something "fine" considering that a large amount of other countries, dozens of countries, performed better than Sweden. Its very close to the world's average, which defacto means a mediocre performance. Norway, for example, had lockdowns, but they also fared far better economically and on death rate. So the Swedes fucked up.

Posted by: Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 17:06 utc | 104

>>It's not the 1940s anymore.

It is, in China. It is on the level of urbanisation of the US in the 1940s, which means that many more cities will be built. You never knew about that? :)

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 5 2022 17:18 utc | 81

Paul said (#9):
"My mum and dad visited China in the late 1970's ... the extreme poverty was palpable."
By way of contrast. My pals and I, from the UK, undertook a tour of the USA, via Greyhound, in the late 70s. In many cities, but particularly San Fransisco and LA the Greyhound terminus was close to 'skid row'. I had never seen such real poverty before - people sleeping, literally, in the gutter. Times Square NY was a scene straight out of 'Taxi Driver'. When we returned home our views on the 'land of the Free' were changed for ever.
China has improved, the USA has got worse, go figure.

Posted by: Henry Smith | Jan 5 2022 17:19 utc | 82

Personally i do not support banning people, since myself was banned recently for contrarian opinions in some other site.

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 5 2022 17:22 utc | 83

As always I refer you all to the Great Gordon Chang's masterful work The Coming Collapse of China which explains 1) that none of this has actually happened 2) that, if any of it has happened, it won't happen and 3) that none of this ever will happen.
So either Chang's watch has stopped (he did write it in 2001!), or we're all imagining this.

Posted by: Patrick Armstrong | Jan 5 2022 17:24 utc | 84

Posted by: Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 17:29 utc | 116
Nice attempt at "evivence", but even Bloomberg disagrees:

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Jan 5 2022 17:33 utc | 85

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Jan 5 2022 17:33 utc | 118


Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Jan 5 2022 17:34 utc | 86

It's a provocation to garner support for banning people.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 5 2022 17:38 utc | 87

@NK 120
China's empty home rate is lower than that of US. Maybe try again.

Posted by: mstk | Jan 5 2022 17:42 utc | 88

Niall K.

On the issue of collapse of China, or many other emerging economies, i found that people generally do not get why emerging countries are growing faster than developed countries.

Serious people do get this, though.

The answer is simple - the law of diminishing returns. There are diminishing returns in the West, because many things have already being built. There are enough cities, enough roads, enough railroads, enough infrastructure, enough people with internet.

Not so in the developing world. There is a huge room to urbanise, to build new cities, to build new roads, ports, pipelines, and railroads, to connect billions of additional people into the internet.

Which is why according to all forecasts out there, and i mean all, hundreds of forecasts, emerging economies will be growing faster than developed countries up to 2050 at least. Even the worse case scenario i have seen for China, out of nearly 50 scenarios i have seen, estimates that Chinese growth will drop to US levels only by 2035. That is the worse case scenario.

And there is a big reason for that. Emerging countries are not overbuilt, on the contrary they are underbuilt, with large rural populations who even still do not have internet. We are talking about billions of people. Which is why there will be high growth in China, in India, in Indonesia, in Africa, etc.

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 5 2022 17:43 utc | 89

Perhaps the most troubling stat posted by Roberts IMO is this:

"Produced nearly one new billionaire and 300 millionaires every workday."

That tells me attempts at equity aren't working at all well, which as we've discussed is an indicator of potential societal unease and is something China's government has striven to avoid. Yes, the erasure of poverty is outstanding, but continuing societal inequity at the pace announced will provide outcomes just as bad as impoverishment. And IMO there's no place for such inequity in a shared future for humankind as distance between top and bottom must be narrowed, not expanded, if harmony is to result in the long term.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 5 2022 17:53 utc | 90

Wow a good old flame war. Reminds me of old BBS days.

NK, how about you stow it and we can revisit your Gordon Chang-esq dribble in a year and see?

I'll buy.

Posted by: A.L. | Jan 5 2022 17:54 utc | 91

good point karlof1. we know that where billionaires exist they exercise far too much influence.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 5 2022 17:57 utc | 92

Blue Dotterel | Jan 5 2022 17:33 utc

Nice attempt at "evivence", but even Bloomberg disagrees

Actually, if you read the article, it's not that optimistic. Then there's this:

It’s hard to say how China’s reputed ghost cities are faring collectively: Government data aren’t publicly available, and independent research is spotty. What is clear is that local governments can throw money at these projects for many years

Obviously the Chinese want to lure more and more people into an urban setting, to build and sustain domestic consumption.

Posted by: john | Jan 5 2022 18:00 utc | 93

Our current troll in response to my public/private finance question feinted that it hadn't worked in Russia but said nothing about China's ongoing success with public finance versus growing squalor on the streets of private finance America.

Come again with your obfuscation, please and thank you

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 5 2022 18:02 utc | 94

Posted by: Niall K. | Jan 5 2022 17:47 utc | 124

>>while the world has moved on:

The world did not move on, economic downgrades are currently incoming for the US and Germany.

>>again you don't understand the issues affecting China

On the contrary, i showed you why they will be putting hundreds of millions of people in new cities well into the future.

>>real estate market is on the verge of collapse.

Rather, some steam was let from it so that it does not cause a bubble like in the US, and to decrease its share in GDP. The effect is currently estimated as 0,3 % GDP drop for 2022, from 5,6 to 5,3 % (median forecast).

>>Sweden succeeded, no lockdowns, no masks, happy kids, minimal economic hit because of failed EU/US lockdowns. Deal with it guys.

Norway GDP growth 2020 (even with lockdowns and oil/gas price drop) -0,8
Sweden GDP growth 2020 -2,8

Norway death rate 208 per million
Sweden death rate 1503 per million

I would say that Sweden fucked up.

Posted by: Passer by | Jan 5 2022 18:02 utc | 95

i've never seen such an annoying troll on MOA, and rarely anywhere else.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Jan 5 2022 18:03 utc | 96

Just to recap:
By all appearances and behavior, Niall K is a professional troll, well schooled and well trained, endlessly pushing and repeating the same 10 talking points using specific words: "totalitarian", "three dam collapse". Easily recognized as the endless glowies on 4chan pol who pushed the same narratives about the 3 dams collapse.
B got a serious problem. Moonofalabama has been targeted by the US Dep.

Posted by: Hoyeru | Jan 5 2022 18:07 utc | 97

@Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 5 2022 16:43 utc | 98
Interesting and immediate article, thanks. It is just a beginning, the tip of the iceberg of differencs btw west and chn culture.
West culture is still dominant, or at least we are in a historic period which has seen west culture as dominant. Mr Xi is dressed with a tie and suit, same than BJ, Mario Draghi or Biden.
But chn culture has preserved herself from west influence in many topics: how do they determinate if a leader (one of the graphs you mentioned) is good and strong to be remembered?
In the west history if you were a military leader or a conquerer than you could have been called "the Magnus".
I'm not sure in chn culture is the same: the military seems to be less relevant, and I don't know if they have something comparable to the US-west MIC. I guess it's a big difference with the west, but I've to invest a little more time I have not now

Posted by: y | Jan 5 2022 18:07 utc | 98

Wow, you have to respect this dude's enthusiasm...

Posted by: ptb | Jan 5 2022 18:14 utc | 99

Passer by @123--

Excellent point!! Diminishing returns was one of the causes for the lack of domestic demand that spurred the Great Depression within the USA and prompted the invention of technological obsolescence. China and its partners well understand the huge global virgin market long bypassed by the Imperialist nations who were only excited about enriching themselves and a few satraps. That untapped market consists of 6+ billion people. How that escaped Madison Avenue's vision is a mystery, but it wasn't lost by Shanghai or Beijing.

If global energy production can be shifted from hydrocarbons to hydrogen/helium--which IMO is clearly possible--then one of the--if not THE--primary issues about global ecological balance and sustainability will be considered resolved.

What the Big Picture reveals is the self-described indispensable nation is proving itself to be very expendable since it's long become the #1 source for global dysfunctionality through its outlawry. And that's the #1 fact our talking doll can't refute.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jan 5 2022 18:16 utc | 100

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