Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 24, 2022

A War In Ukraine Is Tactics - Putin Does Strategy

The 'western' media buildup for war in Ukraine was launched 63 days ago on November 22:

The U.S. has shared intelligence including maps with European allies that shows a buildup of Russian troops and artillery to prepare for a rapid, large-scale push into Ukraine from multiple locations if President Vladimir Putin decided to invade, according to people familiar with the conversations.

That intelligence has been conveyed to some NATO members over the past week to back up U.S. concerns about Putin’s possible intentions and an increasingly frantic diplomatic effort to deter him from any incursion, with European leaders engaging directly with the Russian president. The diplomacy is informed by an American assessment that Putin could be weighing an invasion early next year as his troops again mass near the border.

Nothing has happened since but there has been no letup:

The sheer size and scope of the Western information operations right now regarding Ukraine and Russia in my opinion dwarfs what was done in the lead up to the second invasion of Iraq.

Even in unimportant Australia, the commercial and public broadcasters feature daily stories about the plucky Ukrainians getting ready for an imminent Russian invasion and the print media feature think-pieces about Putin trying to recreate the glory days of Catherine the Great and a new Russian empire, etc. Then there are the stories of gallant NATO members rushing to assist little Ukraine. I am now completely unnerved by the scope and obvious imbalance of this coverage. The media is totally on board the war train.

Most of the propaganda is just crap. Today we hear about a recall of U.S. and British diplomat families from Kiev, additional weapon and money promises to Kiev, the repositioning of NATO forces and so on. None of this would have any effect in the case of war. But everything is done to keep this item at the top of the news. This is without doubt a CIA/MI6 run campaign.

There is only one thing missing and that is a Russian interest in invading the Ukraine.

Still, former ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar thinks it will happen for strategic reasons:

Basically, the US has gained the high ground through sustained efforts through the past three decades since the Bill Clinton administration put into effect a concerted strategy in anticipation of a resurgent Russia in a matter of time. Now that the US has gained the upper hand, it is loathe to give it up.

From Washington’s viewpoint, this is a key template of the geopolitical struggle unfolding over the new world order after China’s rise and the shift in power dynamic from the West to the East. Cutting down Russia to size and to be able to intimidate it is a pre-requisite of the situation before the US tackles China comprehensively. Suffice to say, Ukraine has become a battleground where a titanic test of will is playing out.
...
The ultimate Russian objective will be a federated Ukraine through constitutional reform with the country’s sovereignty, national unity and territorial integrity intact while the regions enjoy autonomy. Europe may welcome this as the best way to stabilise the situation and remove the potential for future conflict.

Well, maybe. There are several threads on how such an invasion could plausibly proceed. No one doubts that Russia would win militarily.

Russia has good reasons to invade the Ukraine but there are also good reasons not to invade it. It could become a millstone around Russia's neck.

Russia's aim is to change the aggressive position the U.S. and its NATO proxy are taking towards it.

Invading Ukraine would do the opposite. It would increase the number of troops in east European NATO countries and would have negative impacts on Russia's strategic position. Only the western military industrial media complex would profit from it.

I believe that the current 'western' media campaign is supposed to give cover for an Ukrainian campaign against the rebelling Donbas provinces.

Murad Gazdiev @MuradGazdiev - 12:47 UTC · Jan 24, 2022

❗️President Zelensky speaking to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine:

“We have learned to contain external threats. It is time we begin offensive actions aimed at securing our national interests. Our citizens are united in wanting their territory returned”

Embedded video

Russia must be pushed to either not intervene in the Ukrainian campaign or alternatively intervene with a huge invasion. Both would fit U.S. desires though the first is preferred. That is why the U.S. is threatening Russia with sanctions. (Sanctions that would drive oil above $100/b? Sanction which would hurt the European NATO countries and the U.S. stock market much more than Russia?)

Russia's President Vladimir Putin is a Judoka, not a boxer.

Should the Donbas get attacked Russia would certainly intervene but it can and likely would do so without an invasion. Artillery and maybe some air campaign would be sufficient to destroy the Ukrainian attackers.

The real picture is much bigger. Russia wants to compel the U.S. to agree to a non-aggressive posture in Europe. That requires a threat to the U.S. itself. Washington will only come to its senses when it feels that it is under a direct threat. A threat that is new and highly visible.

That is why I find this news item intriguing:

Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of the Republic of Cuba Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez.

January 24, 2022 18:10

The leaders had an in-depth exchange of opinions on bilateral cooperation in trade, the economy and investment. The President of Cuba thanked Russia for the humanitarian aid supplied to the republic, including in the context of countering COVID-19. The presidents discussed further coordination of Russia’s and Cuba’s actions in the international arena in line with the principles of strategic partnership and the traditions of friendship and mutual understanding.

Vladimir Putin and Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening bilateral relations and agreed to intensify contacts at different levels.

Four days ago a similar call was held with the president of Venezuela:

The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to close coordination in international affairs in keeping with the principles of strategic partnership that underlie bilateral relations.

When Russia gave Washington two draft treaties it threatened 'military technical' steps that would follow should the U.S. reject Russia's demands. I believe that is code for the deployment of existing or new weapon systems.

During the cold war the stationing of Russian missiles in Cuba compelled the U.S. to pull back its missiles from Turkey and Italy. Nothing else had worked but the missiles on Cuba did it.

So why not learn from history and repeat such a step?

Posted by b on January 24, 2022 at 18:39 UTC | Permalink

Comments
« previous page

http://armiyadnr.su/news/ekstrennoe-zayavlenie-oficialnogo-predstavitelya-nm-dnr-polkovnika-ebasurina-na-24-yanvarya

https://armiyadnr-su.translate.goog/?_x_tr_sch=http&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en

Googlish:

Emergency statement by Colonel E. Basurin

The command of the People’s Militia of the DPR continues to receive reliable information about the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for active hostilities in the Donbass.

We recorded the conduct of the Ukrainian armed formations located in the zone, the so-called “Joint Forces Operation”, measures to prepare for the offensive:

in subdivisions of the 1st separate tank brigade, in the tank battalions of the 53rd and 54th mechanized brigades, and in the 58th separate motorized infantry brigade of the enemy, vacations for all personnel were suspended, commanders of all levels were ordered to be in temporary deployment points. Drivers and gunners are being discharged from hospitals ahead of schedule, with recommendations to continue medical treatment in units. Commissions from brigade headquarters arrived at tank battalions to control the preparation of weapons and military equipment, check the installation of dynamic protection elements on tanks, and replenish ammunition and fuel;

in the places of withdrawal of heavy equipment and weapons of the Ukrainian army, determined by the Minsk agreements, located in the areas of the settlement. VOLNOVAKHA, ANDREEVKA and DOBROPOLYE, the presence of tank crews and artillery crews preparing weapons and military equipment for combat use was also recorded;

Reliable information has been received about the arrival of FORTY military personnel of the 3rd separate special forces regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who had previously been trained under the guidance of instructors from Great Britain at the 142 training center of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in order to carry out provocations in the AVDIEVKA region.

Posted by: Razumov | Jan 25 2022 2:06 utc | 101

according to avia-pro.fr ,Venezuela has approved Russian deployments in the country and pledges full cooperation with Russia.

Posted by: CarlD | Jan 25 2022 2:35 utc | 102

No one has mentioned that Putin resembles Mikhail Bottvinik.

Botvinnik generally sought tense positions with chances for both sides;[83] hence his results were often better with the Black pieces as he could avoid lines that were likely to produce draws.[14][84] He had a strong grasp of long-term strategy, and was often willing to accept weaknesses that his opponent could not exploit in exchange for some advantage that he could exploit.[84][85] He confessed that he was relatively weak in tactical calculation, yet many of his games feature sacrifices – often long-term positional sacrifices whose purpose was not to force an immediate win, but to improve his position and undermine his opponent's. Botvinnik was also capable of all-out sacrificial attacks when he thought the position justified it.[86] Botvinnik saw himself as a "universal player" (all-rounder), in contrast to an all-out attacker like Mikhail Tal or a defender like Tigran Petrosian.[58] Reuben Fine considered Botvinnik's collection of best games one of the three most beautiful up to the mid-1950s (the other two were Alexander Alekhine's and Akiba Rubinstein's).[14]

Kasparov quotes Tigran Petrosian as saying, "There was a very unpleasant feeling of inevitability. Once in a conversation with Keres I mentioned this and even compared Botvinnik with a bulldozer, which sweeps away everything in its path. Keres smiled and said: 'But can you imagine what it was like to play him when he was young?'"[87]Text

As a Botvinnik-style grandmaster, Putin would be accumulating tiny positional advantages, converting them
to small positional advantages; always looking for a happy combination to force a transition to a winning
end game. As such, Putin does not know what he is going to do next. So long as he maintains his positional
advantage he will move to restrict the squares his opponent is able to use. He is playing black to win.

After losing the world title for the final time, to Tigran Petrosian in Moscow in 1963, Botvinnik withdrew from the following World Championship cycle after FIDE declined, at its annual congress in 1965, to grant a losing champion the automatic right to a rematch. He remained involved with competitive chess, appearing in several highly rated tournaments and continuing to produce memorable games.

He retired from competitive play in 1970, aged 59, preferring instead to occupy himself with the development of computer chess programs and to assist with the training of younger Soviet players, earning him the nickname of "Patriarch of the Soviet Chess School".

Botvinnik's autobiography, K Dostizheniyu Tseli, was published in Russian in 1978, and in English translation as Achieving the Aim (ISBN 0-08-024120-4) in 1981. A staunch Communist, he was noticeably shaken by the collapse of the Soviet Union and lost some of his standing in Russian chess during the Boris Yeltsin era.

In the 1980s Botvinnik proposed a computer program to manage the Soviet economy. However, his proposals did not receive significant attention from the Soviet government.

During the last few years of his life he personally financed his economic computer project that he hoped would be used to manage the Russian economy. He kept actively working on the program until his death and financing the work from the money he made for the lectures and seminars he attended, despite prominent health problems.

Botvinnik died in May 1995.[64] According to his daughter, Botvinnik remained active until the last few months of his life, and continued to go to work until March 1995 despite blindness in one of his eyes (and extremely poor vision in the other).

The Soviet Union was the representative of Russia for the years Botvinnick lived; so he was a nationalist, not only a citizen of a Communist state. Putin is like that chessplayer who was effective with the black
pieces, skillfully ceding the intiative to one's opponent in order to eventually exploit the other's
over-extended position left by an imperfect attack (often in the form of one or more unguarded squares).

Posted by: Guerrero | Jan 25 2022 2:35 utc | 103

wow

Posted by: Hillbob | Jan 25 2022 2:38 utc | 104

In this 'Age of Illusion' it seems that reality is verboten: Saying that "What he [Putin] really wants is respect. And my God, giving someone respect is low cost, even no cost... It is easy to give him the respect he really demands – and probably also deserves," Schoenbach said, calling Russia an old and important country was truth enough for German Naval Chief Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schönbach to loose his job.

Then to double-down on the truth, he had the impertinence to add, "the Crimea peninsula is gone, it will never come back, this is a fact,"

Posted by: Jackie Barron | Jan 25 2022 3:00 utc | 105

Do you think that could be true ??!!
LOL
When Russia intervened in Georgia, Americans living in GA were frantically posting online wondering why they couldn’t see any Russians anywhere.

Americans also called for the bømbing of the Czech Republic when they found out the Boston bømbers were Chechen.

https://twitter.com/SameeraKhan/status/1484990152523010052?s=20

Posted by: MD | Jan 25 2022 3:02 utc | 106

Guerrero "As such, Putin does not know what he is going to do next."

I would differ on this one point. Putin believes in both creating circumstances and having game plans for whatever foreseeable circumstances may arise. I guess at the moment, he is playing the ultimate game of chess.
He has a lot of empathy for all people but as he said, he puts emotions aside when making decisions.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 25 2022 3:03 utc | 107

How come nobody mentioned that American arm exports fell by 21% in 2021 .. from 124 billion to 103 billion! certainly both or at least America will profit for this western media buildup for war by

Posted by: Albert Darmo | Jan 25 2022 3:06 utc | 108

Sorry I left out ( by the western media)

Posted by: Albert darmo | Jan 25 2022 3:11 utc | 109

dh@91....27 US cruise missiles fired at Syria, totally destroyed the entire country, one even veered of course and destroyed the Kremlin.....yawn.

I'd bet pennies to dollars, Russia has no missiles anywhere near the US but rather has deployed a full suite of EW systems which will blind rather than destroy US assets. Should that prove not to deter, one of those fancy speedy things will leave someone in the US with a lot of splainin to do.

Cheers M

Posted by: sean the leprechaun | Jan 25 2022 3:17 utc | 110

Guerrero #102

Putin is like that chessplayer who was effective with the black pieces, skillfully ceding the initiative to one's opponent in order to eventually exploit the other's over-extended position left by an imperfect attack (often in the form of one or more unguarded squares).

An excellent perspective, thank you.

In these times of western economic stress following the covid assault, the insane $Trillions printed by the US Fed and the dramatic development of new global alliances (to name a few factors), my guess is that any idiot UKUSA sabre rattler will not be enthusiastically entertained by the EU major states. Maybe the minor psyco-phants of the baltic zone will cheer them on but the cooler heads just might prevail in the dominant EU States.

Meanwhile the Ukraine economy drains its life force into military brigands in freezing hardware and trenches cheerily encouraged by englander diplomats and military trainers on handsome salaries and in warm quarters.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2022 3:30 utc | 111

Because Joe Biden is no John Kennedy and this time it might not end as well.

Posted by: Joe Lauria | Jan 25 2022 3:36 utc | 112

While a little shooting in the Donbass can't be ruled out, now that everyone's all lined up for it, IMO it's even money that what we're actually seeing is a rather effective sales job for producers to lock in the 2022-2023 season of gas futures (or other contracts) while prices are nice and high. Devastating consequences for EM economies.

Oh and it looks like another F-35 sent to intimidate the Chinese bit it while landing. Tax dollars at work...

Posted by: ptb | Jan 25 2022 4:05 utc | 113

Don Bacon @33

All that "independent" talk don't amount to a hill of beans.
Remember, subjects/vassals/clients of major empires may make some noises but they always toe the line or physically lose their head, or both, up to the very day all burns down. The mutiny will not start before the wannabe Gaullists see the emperor buried six feet deep.

Posted by: Piero Colombo | Jan 25 2022 4:29 utc | 114

Can Russia keep a secret? . .Ain't no big deal.
WASHINGTON, January 22. /TASS/. US officials have asked their Russian colleagues not to publish Washington’s written response to Moscow’s proposal on security guarantees, The Washington Post has reported. However, according to the paper, "a senior State Department official acknowledged that the Kremlin may decide to publish it after the United States sends it next week."

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2022 4:30 utc | 115

I'm also thinking that France might be looking to take advantage of this situation to slap the US back for the Aussie nuclear deal (being nixed). And does Germany remember that Merkel was bugged (phone calls intercepted by the US)? Kicked in the teeth and then asked to buy NatGas from the US... At some point I'm thinking that France and Germany are going to jump off this trainwreck.

Posted by: Seer | Jan 25 2022 4:30 utc | 116

ptb
The F-5 might turn out to be quite an intimidating aircraft... for the pilots.
On the other count, I suspect the shit going on now is a little more than gas sales.
More like a do or die effort for continued anglo world domination.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 25 2022 4:37 utc | 117


I consider this line of reasoning to be fairly typical of western ideologues


https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1485243403461922824

".....1. Stop further NATO expansion to post-Soviet states

Yes, Putin and the rest of Russia’s elites (going back to Gorbachev and Yeltsin days) believe it is a threat. And no amount of Western pronouncements to the contrary will change that.

....Incidentally, the claims that NATO is a purely defensive alliance don’t square well with the Kosovo and Libya operations, which the Russians remember well. The fact that they were done for humanitarian reasons provides no consolation to the current Russian leadership."


don't worry Russia don't worry world, IT, i.e. NATO expansion and aggressiveness, I mean NATO defensiveness, is all being done for "...for humanitarian reasons..."

:):):):)

Posted by: michaelj72 | Jan 25 2022 5:14 utc | 118

The rather drole - and highly analytical - John Helmer provides an analysis of Sec. Blinkens words used at his press conference following the meeting Mr. Blinken requested with Russian FM Lavrov.

The technique was developed in WW2 by the Americans, to try to gain an insight into German intentions by analysing the German propaganda. It proved predictive.

An interesting and amusing analysis...but the Americans are such superb 'on message' propagandists that I don't think you can read too much into it.

But who knows...

http://johnhelmer.net/content-analysis-of-secretary-blinken-at-geneva-reveals-psychopatholical-incapacity-to-negotiate-with-russia/

Posted by: powerandpeople | Jan 25 2022 5:39 utc | 119

@ Don Bacon | Jan 25 2022 4:30 utc | 114 with the report about the US asking for its response to the security requirements not be made available to the public

Well, that should head off any attempts to bury the response but increasing the noise level with a false flag somewhere or a market crash may work.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jan 25 2022 5:52 utc | 120

@John Cleary | Jan 24 2022 23:50 utc | 71

Back in 1992 the British Prime Minister got involved in the US Presidential election.

Bush asked him to look for the dirt on Clinton. Bush knew that Clinton was CIA

Of course Bush would know that, after all he was the 'former' director of the CIA.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 25 2022 6:43 utc | 121

@Choderlos de Laclos | Jan 25 2022 0:12 utc | 75

The smartest response would be to test fly a few burevestnik missiles around Atlantic, or Pacific coast of the USA back and forth. If they are as good as promised, the war will be over without Cuban deployment.
I made the same point some time ago. If the US don't back down on its own, a guest appearance for a home audience might be appreciated.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 25 2022 7:00 utc | 122

That German officer apparently getting the boot because he said Putin just wants respect... Shows how far down the rabbit hole from reality western thinking is.
Afghanistan is said to be the graveyard of empires. No empire has been destroyed there. I'm not sure that Hitler or Napoleon ever went to Afghanistan. Montgomery had it right.
"Rule 1, on page 1 of the book of war, is: "Do not march on Moscow". Various people have tried it, Napoleon and Hitler, and it is no good. That is the first rule. I do not know whether your Lordships will know Rule 2 of war. It is: "Do not go fighting with your land armies in China"."

Moscow is unchanged. China has changed somewhat so the second rule of war should be "Do not march on Beijing".

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 25 2022 7:16 utc | 123

@Peter AU1 | Jan 25 2022 7:16 utc | 122

"Rule 1, on page 1 of the book of war, is: "Do not march on Moscow". Various people have tried it, Napoleon and Hitler, and it is no good. That is the first rule.

Martyanov made a good point that western historians attribute both failures to cold winters. It is obviously impossible to lose to inferior beings, so the reason has to be the weather.

Thus, "Every 100 years the west goes to Russia to have their asses handed to them"

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 25 2022 7:52 utc | 124

@Joe Lauria | Jan 25 2022 3:36 utc | 111

Because Joe Biden is no John Kennedy and this time it might not end as well.
I would not say it ended well for Kennedy either.

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 25 2022 8:32 utc | 125

Russian navy exercising off the SW coast of Ireland, and Wallace and Truss going to Moscow to talk to Shoigu. As in the Russian saying 'Those who won't talk to Lavrov will end up talking to Shoigu'.....flight time for a missile from SW of Ireland to GCHQ would be quite short. Perhaps minds have been concentrated by that fact. Back in Cold War 1.0 we were always aware of Soviet subs lurking west of Lundy in the Southern Irish Sea. The more things change....just a random thought early in the day....

Posted by: Emmanuel Goldstein | Jan 25 2022 8:34 utc | 126

I also view the necessity of break of Ukrainian statehood from Russian perspective, either via invasion or with overwhelming military strike along with a putsh in Kiev as they declared they will not tolerate enemy forces in Romania or Bulgaria let alone Ukraine as their diplomats said; that already gave away what will they do.

Posted by: kemerd | Jan 25 2022 8:38 utc | 127

The second rule of survival in the international arena is: Pay the bill.

Now in late 2019 Boris Jonson, leader of the englander brexit debtor class was still blathering about how the UK owes nothing to the EU.

However the EU was describing something like 39 Billion quid as the settlement figure.

After much wrangling, a total of £39bn was eventually agreed in order to cover outstanding budget contributions and payments into EU institutions during the two-year “transition” period.

Yet having rejected Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement, her successor in Downing Street, Boris Johnson, last month put Britain on a collision course with Brussels by warning he would slash more than £30bn from the EU divorce bill in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

So what exactly does the UK owe Brussels? And why haven’t its past payments already covered this?

And then along came covid.

Now that covid is exiting stage left will the bill be paid?

Will the EU memory stretch back that far and call in the payment or will they be stampeded by the urgency of the shrieking englander banshees and lurch forward into war.

Methinks it would be wise to pocket the cash first before giving any further attention to the fools. Take note Macron, Sholz et al., the sound of englanders reneging on their promises, avoiding debts fills the air once again.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jan 25 2022 8:55 utc | 128

@michaelj72 | Jan 25 2022 5:14 utc | 117
LOL Dmitri Alperovitch, fan of Democrats and HRC, Ukrainian and co-founder of CrowdStrike, indeed of DNC hack and security infamy … senior fellow at Atlantic Council … Dutch Hackers Infiltrated Kremlin's Cozy Bear in December 2014

Posted by: Oui | Jan 25 2022 9:01 utc | 129

@ powerandpeople#118.

I’m certain China, Russia and Iran have worked out the mental perspectives of Blinken, Sullivan, Nuland et all. The trouble with people who are inflexible in their out of touch with reality ideplogies, is they become ridgid and eventually brittle and therfore can be broken. At the moment the three countries are engaging in very sophisticated strategies which take into account as many aspects of their knowlege of the west as possible.

Posted by: Beibdnn. | Jan 25 2022 9:13 utc | 130

Russia is not going to send missiles to Latin America (whether to Cuba or somewhere else). I am almost certain of it.

Posted by: Coiseam | Jan 25 2022 10:27 utc | 131

Also, this Russian harping on the need for the Ukranazi coup regime to fulfil its Minsk Agreement obligations is ridiculous. Even if the Nazis could somehow be arm twisted into accepting Minsk, under no circumstances would the Donbass Republics agree to dissolve themselves and submit to Kiev rule ever again. Even Putin must know this.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Jan 25 2022 0:38 utc | 84

I think this is completely wrong.

The Russians are not in the business of rewarding those who break their parts of a bargain. The liars.

Thank God.

The Iranian deal, the "not an inch to the East" deal, the Minsk accords.
Having decided to make their stand there is no going back on any of it.

It is all going to be sorted NOW.

As for the Donbas Republics, Lavrov made them promises, and he intends to keep his word. Putin has given them an effective veto on the future constitution. They get what they want.

Posted by: John Cleary | Jan 25 2022 10:45 utc | 132

Russia may well reproduce the Iranian Al Assad missile attack.
Subs off the US Eastern Seaboard launch several missiles, the timing and the trajectory are shared in an advanced warning. The missiles overfly NY and DC, all the way to the West Coast over LA and SF, and may be back to, say London and Brussels, before flying to rest ar some shooting range in the Siberian tundra. No one gets hurt or dies, but everyone understands we are in a new era.

Posted by: Peacenik | Jan 25 2022 11:35 utc | 133

@Peacenik | Jan 25 2022 11:35 utc | 132

That would be a game changer indeed!

Posted by: Norwegian | Jan 25 2022 11:45 utc | 134

It seems Borrell does not want to die for Ukraine:

No threat of immediate Russian attack on Ukraine – EU

Posted by: Bemildred | Jan 25 2022 12:01 utc | 135

russia will invade and occupy russian parts of ukraine not already consolidated within luhansk and donetsk. the rest of western ukraine will be disabled by air strikes and lightning attacks by ground forces, but russia has no use for western ukraine, a landfill and moneypit that is ungovernable, including by its own people.

if western ukraine pushes too hard, however, its government will be wiped out.

in any event, various neo-nazis and waffen-ss larpers will be rounded up and disappeared — a much-needed and overdue clean-up.

if the united states and europe impose crippling sanctions, especially expulsion from swift, russia will either turn off europe’s gas or attack into eastern europe. tactical nuclear weapons will be on the menu.

the planet is at the cusp of wwiii. the u.s. must immediately cut loose from ukraine, agree to hard stops on nato expansion, and commit to reciprocal nuclear pullbacks and security guarantees.

Posted by: line islands | Jan 25 2022 12:41 utc | 136

Ukraine - Poroshenko

Nothing on his share of a payoff yet, but found items below (from yesterday)

"interrogation" cancelled, keeps passport contrary to previous declaration by Kiev court

https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/793595.html

https://ukranews.com/en/news/828877-poroshenko-not-hands-over-his-passport

Not really surprising. With a little bit of well timed grandstanding to claim credit for "averting war", he could even return to his old job I suppose.

Posted by: ptb | Jan 25 2022 13:02 utc | 137

"Every time there is a problem the American default mode is ‘double-down’. When that doesn’t work, they think it was just a ‘lack of commitment’ and decide to double-down yet again. Rinse and repeat over and over until it escalates to utterly insane levels hoping the other side will eventually back down and America ‘wins’."

That is a consequence/function of their purpose and facility which includes, but is not limited to a failsafe brake to limit backward movement as a minimum facilitator of sustainability.

However from the late 1960's onwards when parked on some hills the failsafe brake did not work, and the engine started to go backwards at increasing speed, this required the alchemy of turning gold into fiat to dampen the speed for a while, which was subsequently aided by offshoring parts of the economy.

That is a component of why the matter is not restricted to Ukraine and the choice of hopes, which “The United States of America” attempt to misrepresent as "strategies", are limited in an interactive contexts, why "The United States of America" has asked The Russian Federation not to publish details of discussions and agreements, and why the increasing noise/signal ratio of theatrics in respect to Ukraine that the "Ukrainians" are asking to turn down the volume.

"I wonder if the Europeans ever reflect on the cavalier attitude of Washington about starting a war in Europe? They seem too afraid to stand up and say ‘no’ to stop the U.S. from starting a major war in their neighborhood that will set their continental home ablaze."

As Mr. Schrodinger observed phenomena do not require to be seen to exist, whilst a hypothetical cat may be considered simultaneously both alive and dead as a result of its fate being linked to a random subatomic event that may or may not occur.

“The United States of America” understands, as do their interlocutors, that resort to the things-that-go-bang war derivative will place outcomes in the linear spectrum from breaking the failsafe brake to ending sustainability.

As outlined in a separate thread about a month ago, the best hope to achieve the sustainability of “The United States of America” with benefit of failsafe break, is to create a spectacle of potential events/intents that they understand are unlikely to happen, including but not limited to the “invasion” of Ukraine by the Russian Federation, and then seek attribution for the frustration of things that were unlikely to happen when they don't happen, which to assuage the fears encouraged by the theatrics others will likely believe – since it worked for Mr. Orson Welles,via the Mr. Chamberlain routine updated by incorporation of the gold into fiat routine, “The United States of America” made the “Soviet Union” invade Afghanistan in 1979 mantra, “We won the Cold War” since we the people hold these truths to be self-evident, the cold war was cold but ended - all in the hope of facilitating- see like Mr. Tsun Tsu we are exceptional, we won a war without fighting it – you can trust us, it is better to be protected by us routine.

The target focus of "The United States of America" is those immersed in the coercive social relations self-misrepresented as “The United States of America” plus anyone else who may be naïve enough to conflate reality with theatrics by living towards the edges of the bandwith, and require the good guys in the white hats to protect them from falling off the edge.

The lacunae include but are not restricted to the sole agency derivative of exceptionalism, that the benefits of dumbing down accrue solely to the would like to be dumbing down initiators.

Mr. Ritter in the article linked below outlines some components of the above, whilst retaining a notion that The Russian Federation will invade Ukraine, which some in “The United States of America” with better reception don't want and hence Mr. Biden's oscillating statements.

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/22/ukraine-crisis-us-toolboxes-are-empty/

This is understandable given Mr. Ritter's socialisation and his professional expertise being derived primarily, but not exclusively, from analyses derived through certain methodologies.

Over-extensions of facilities are always disadvantageous to some degree - the Battle of Moscow 1941/42 refers, whilst analysts and strategists are assigned different names for reasons.

(Break and brake have different spellings by design since some are not playing, some are not playing by a/the copybook or playbook, whilst some are playing jazz)

Posted by: NotEuclid | Jan 25 2022 13:12 utc | 138

Antibellum writes:
"Venezuela is ready to provide military-technical assistance to Russia in case the Russian-US relations deteriorate, Russia’s Ambassador to Caracas Sergey Melik-Bagdasarov said….

“Absolutely,” he said when asked whether Caracas would be capable of providing military and technical assistance to Moscow if Russian-US relations exacerbate sharply.

“From the very first minutes of the hysteria, which was sparked by the words of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Alexeyevich Ryabkov [about the potential deployment of Russian military infrastructure to Venezuela or Cuba], in the West and the United States, I have been receiving calls from Venezuelan politicians and cabinet members. I have held meetings with them, and they pledged their unequivocal and, in general, unhesitating support, since they have gone through that and are going through it together with us.”

“It is this form of unprecedented pressure involving illegal restrictive measures, slander and persecution in the international arena, along with all the means of pressure available to our Western counterparts,” the ambassador added. “They face it all in full, so they are well aware that the relations between our countries have the possibility of strengthening further on.”

He recalled that the military and technical cooperation with Venezuela began in 2001 by signing a corresponding agreement.

“Our specialists, who repair and maintain military hardware, are carrying on with their work here. We strenuously bolster Venezuela’s defense capabilities,” Melik-Bagdasarov said.

The diplomat emphasized that the forms of effective assistance from Caracas can be different.

“Venezuela has quite a developed infrastructure of ports. It has deep-water ports and civilian ports. There is a wide range of the Venezuelan Navy’s bases. Another thing is that this is quite a sensitive topic, what is more, our aircraft carriers, guided missile cruisers have called here. And we see absolutely nothing extraordinary in that,” Melik-Bagdasarov concluded."
https://antibellum679354512.wordpress.com/2022/01/22/russian-envoy-venezuela-ready-to-render-military-assistance-if-relations-with-u-s-worsen/

https://tass.com/politics/1391927

Posted by: Mikkael | Jan 25 2022 13:13 utc | 139

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 25 2022 7:16 utc | 122

He was a military commander that shared his personal views that diverged from the political leadership in a time of diplomatic stand-off. It was stupid of him and he would been relieved of command in any nation not run by the military.

The "he just wants respect" is being spun furiously by the (completely one-sided btw) so called analysis in this forum, but what it means does not exactly paint a favorable picture of 'The Great Chessman' (lol) of Russia. He basically said 'this is just a bruised ego matter and we can solve the problem "very cheaply" by just humoring the old "Grand Master"'.

B, congratulations on your coordinated propaganda line with Kremlin. Unbelievably your recent "management" of the content and accessibility (VK, JR, et al) of views actually made me take a second look at FUKUS propaganda machines (NYTimes, WashingtonPost, AlJazeera, etc.) to get a 'balanced view' of the facts. Well done buddy. There was a reason people left MSM in droves in the past couple of decades. Because they pulled the same stunts you are pulling. We are not stupid.

And as for the Great ("You Must Respect Me or we'll go nuclear") Chess Master, this PR matter badly misfired. Before Nov 21, I would have never thought of Russia as a threat to world peace, but since then it is clear that Russians are butthurt over the FACT of their capitulating to the West in the 90s and now want to renegotiate from what they perceive to be a more favorable position. Who is agreement incapable again?

Posted by: lost_credibility | Jan 25 2022 13:44 utc | 140

One could "understand" why some Americans want to fight a war in Europe, because the battlefield is again far away from home soil and the $poil$ of war will add to their U$ accounts.

Why European leaders are dumb enough to follow Uncle $cam is difficult to understand for rational people: they will be too close to the fight to keep their $aving$ $afe. What is the use of a financial or power bribe if you don't keep a life to "enjoy" your mEGOlomania?
Dumb, dumber, EU leaders.

Posted by: Antonym | Jan 25 2022 14:23 utc | 141

"I believe that the current 'western' media campaign is supposed to give cover for an Ukrainian campaign against the rebelling Donbas provinces."

No shit. The US isn't passing on M141 BDM (BD0138 Bunker Defeat Munitions) because those sneaky Rooskie bunkers are going to creep up on the totally peaceful Ukranian Neo-Nazis just minding their own business in east Ukraine.

Posted by: Arfur Mo | Jan 25 2022 14:27 utc | 143

Emmanuel Goldstein | Jan 25 2022 8:34 utc | 125

"flight time for a missile from SW of Ireland to GCHQ would be quite short. "

GCHQ is of little concern to Russia militarily. It is just a hoover point for the US 'gather everything and try to make sense of it later' approach to intelligence. The US early warning radar base at 'RAF' Fylingdales would be another matter.

The Royal Navy has got itself in a tizzy over super-quiet stealthy Russian subs. Not so long ago, they were doing a towed sonar search in the north Atlantic (ah the Cold War habits never really faded) when the towed section collided with something it couldn't see, resulting in damage. So there was (in high probability) a Russian sub close to the surface totally invisible to UK sonar. Ooooops.


Posted by: Arfur Mo | Jan 25 2022 14:38 utc | 144

"In the 1980s Botvinnik proposed a computer program to manage the Soviet economy. (...) During the last few years of his life he personally financed his economic computer project that he hoped would be used to manage the Russian economy. He kept actively working on the program until his death (...) in May 1995."

That`s Putin, indeed! An intelligent man who keeps on trying to save the Soviet Union years after the Soviet Union had dissolved.

Posted by: m | Jan 25 2022 14:38 utc | 145

Russian submarine with 160 nukes on board surfaces off US coast
Russian nuclear submarine of the Borey project, which carries 16 Bulava ballistic missiles on board, unexpectedly appeared off the coast of the United States, having caused serious concerns in Washington.
Each of the missiles in service with the submarine is capable of carrying up to ten nuclear warheads. This created an extremely serious danger for the United States, given that the US military have not been able to track the Russian nuclear submarine.
According to NetEase publication, Russian nuclear submarine of the Borey project, approached the US coast unnoticed. It was possible to establish the whereabouts of the nuclear submarine with up to 160 nuclear warheads on boards after the sub started going back to the base. A submarine of this class is capable of destroying most of the territory of the United States of America in minutes.

Posted by: Sme | Jan 25 2022 14:40 utc | 146

Posted by: Antonym | Jan 25 2022 14:23 utc | 140

"Why European leaders are dumb enough to follow Uncle $cam is difficult to understand for rational people"

In the west, only carefully selected people tend to reach high positions, passing through a long subtle (or not so subtle) filter that ensure the people finally passing through know what to think without overt instruction.

Noam Chomsky and Bill Marr of the UK BBC

Posted by: Arfur Mo | Jan 25 2022 14:44 utc | 147

Watch out, UK might look into deploying that battalion the have in waiting.
...from Sputnik, today
MOSCOW - The United Kingdom will look into contributing to new NATO deployments in eastern Europe in the event of escalation in Ukraine, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said.
...from Daily Mail, Feb 5, 2021
Leaked Ministry of Defence report lays bare the appalling state of Britain's army. All but one of 33 infantry battalions are dangerously short of battle-ready troops. . . Recruitment crisis pinned on private firm Capita, who received £1.3bn contract

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2022 14:46 utc | 148

...from AP today
Ukraine urges calm, saying Russian invasion not imminent

Ukraine’s leaders sought to reassure the nation that a feared invasion from neighboring Russia was not imminent, even as they acknowledged the threat is real and prepared to accept a shipment of American military equipment Tuesday to shore up their defenses.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Monday that the situation was “under control” and that there is “no reason to panic.”
Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that, as of Monday, that Russia’s armed forces had not formed what he called battle groups, “which would have indicated that tomorrow they would launch an offensive.”
“There are risky scenarios. They’re possible and probable in the future,” Reznikov told Ukraine’s ICTV channel on Monday. “But as of today ... such a threat doesn’t exist.”. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Jan 25 2022 14:53 utc | 149

@Coiseam #131
Define send. Would a "dual use" hypersonic capable ship count?
Unlike the 1960s, not all nuclear capable missiles need large fixed installations to launch.

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 25 2022 15:16 utc | 150

Defense One talking about impacts of Russia denying airline access to its airspace

What If Moscow Cancels Airline Overflight Rights?

The article obliquely mentions it, but Russia doing so would primarily affect Europe. The US - most flights to China go west over the Pacific.

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 25 2022 15:17 utc | 151

the 2 richest comments for today......

usa doesn't want russia to share its written response... of course not! handing the reality over to the bullshit media would turn everything upside down, wouldn't it?

lost_credibility... stick with your moniker... it really suits you!!

Posted by: james | Jan 25 2022 16:09 utc | 152

"It is not a move, even the best move, that you must seek,
but a realizable plan." - Eugene Znosko-Borovsky

Tarrasch-Alapin Nurenburg, 1892 Tarrasch surrounds the centralized Knight
and threatens to win it. Black's King rushes to save the Knight,
only to find himself caught (unjust reward of a cruel act!)
in a mating net. P-KR4 is crushing, taking away the Knight's last flight square.

"The delight in gambits is a sign of chess youth.... In very much
the same way as the young man, on reaching his manhood years, lays aside
the Indian stories and turns to the psychological novel, we with maturing
experience leave off gambit playing and become interested the less
vivacious but withal more forceful maneuvers of the positional player."
- Emanuel Lasker

Rabinovich-Botvinnik Moscow, 1927 "The hardest is to win a won game" said Frank
Marshall many a time. He knew well the danger of having a won game. One tends
to over-confidence and apt to forget that there may be danger in the most
placid position. The 16year-old Botvinnick unfolds an impressive combination,
threading his way through complications with the accuracy of a seasoned master.


Match notes by Irving Chernev

Posted by: Guerrero | Jan 25 2022 16:59 utc | 153

@Guerrerro #103
Amusing but irrelevant.
Among the many problems with applying chess to the real world:
1) The real world never involves 2 exactly equally strong competitors
2) The real world has more outcomes than win or lose - it is literally not 2 dimensional.
3) The real world isn't one chess master vs. another: it is the government/oligarchy of one or more nations competing against 1 or more other nations.
For example: a lot of people in MoA confuse Russia's relations with China to an Alliance.
That's not actually true.
A formal alliance is like a marriage. Russia is selling arms to India, for example, because India feels the need to offset Chinese military tech (to some significant degree, originating from Russia). Do Alliance partners sell arms to countries that have soldiers that are likely shoot at soldiers of the alliance partner?
Nor is China fully allied with Russia. You don't see China fighting very hard at all, or really at all, to oppose sanctions on Russia or Iran. They just do what they do - sell stuff - and try to stay under the radar in the process.
China is positively supporting Russia to some degree due to recent (Trump and post Trump) anti-China sentiment, but they also want to continue to be the largest manufacturing supplier to the US, Europe, really the world. Russia's recent overt expression of its security interests in its Western border has put Russia squarely in the crosshairs even as China distantly say "we support Russia".
So let's not confuse shared interests with anything more - not until there are concrete expressions of "alliance".

Posted by: c1ue | Jan 25 2022 20:29 utc | 154

Re: false flag operations

In this day, where nukes are OOTQ, and spy sats see everything launched or moved
I would bet on a biological attack

Whether it’s in Donbas, Kiev, RF, EU, or US, wherever
And attributed to who knows, much talk about double-false flags

That’s what I’m looking for.
Bio attack as the next escalation

Posted by: Cadence calls | Jan 26 2022 5:43 utc | 155

@133 peacenik

Ahhh, no.
That’s a horrible idea.
You think the US would be fine with hypersonic nuclear capables just flying over US airspace?
You think that wouldn’t provoke a response? Immediately?
Possibly nuclear? As in fire up the retaliatory strike?
Damn dude, that’s about the worst idea ever.

Posted by: Cadence Calls | Jan 26 2022 6:05 utc | 156

Russia's been "invading" Ukraine for 2-3 months, and Iran has been "just months away" from having a nuclear weapon for, what, 20-25 years now?

Posted by: Clem | Jan 26 2022 10:27 utc | 157

All this to deflect from having to even consider the basic well balanced security guarantees Russia is insisting on. NATO is well aware such guarantees would spell its demise, so NATO is frantically jacking up tension in any way it can.

Posted by: JR | Jan 26 2022 10:29 utc | 158

Posted by: Jen | 5
Liz Truss gives a speech at neocon think-tank Lowy Institute…..
Thanks Jen. I too had noted Truss at Lowy. Did a scan thru Lowy twitter until I become nauseous and had to desist.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 26 2022 11:23 utc | 159

I would dearly love to know who really murdered Motorola, Givi, and Zakharchenko. I'm pretty sure it wasn't the Nazis, if only because they would all have been on guard against assassination attempts by the Nazis.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | 88

Whatever you seem to be implying…. It stinks.
Here’s Saker writing in the days after Givi’s murder
Lieutenant colonel Mikhail Sergeyevich Tolstykh, aka “Givi” has been murdered
February 08, 2017
http://thesaker.is/lieutenant-colonel-mikhail-sergeyevich-tolstykh-aka-givi-has-been-murdered/
- This is one of those times when I sincerely wish I had been proven wrong and that those who criticized me for raising the alarm following the murder of Motorola had been proven right.  Instead, one of my worst fears has now materialized: Lieutenant colonel Mikhail Sergeyevich Tolstykh, aka “Givi” has been murdered.
- That’s what you get for not asking the hard questions and for stupidly denying that there is a major problem.
- Frankly, I am too disgusted to write a personal analysis

- As to the “who done it?” question, I am now revising my evaluation of how hard it would be to mount such an operation downward and I am beginning to think that the Ukronazis might actually be behind it.  Initially, I had dismissed that option due to the notorious incompetence of the SBU and the rest of the Ukronazi terror organizations, but now I am starting believe that the “incompetence” of the Ukronazis, especially if trained by western operators, might be favorably compared to the “competence” of the DNR/LRN security services.
- I will conclude this post by repeating what I wrote when Motorola was killed: The real question is not who had the means to execute such an operation, but why would anybody at all have had the opportunity to do so?!

There’s Saker items on the murder of Motorola and Zacharchenko. Find them yourself. Or don’t. But whatever you are implying. Won’t find much support.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Jan 26 2022 11:41 utc | 160

Russia doesn't need to invade. Around DOmbass there are ~ 120.000 ukrainian solders, preparing an attack. The US and media strategy is simple: They statd that russia is preparing a false flag attack to get an argument to invade. Means, when the ukrainien does this attack, the US will say it is a false flag.
Bur Tussa doesn not need to invade. Remember what they had done in Syria against the IS, when all other couldn't do any right: thes sent missiles.
And russia has ~ 120 positions of missiles (incl. ships) close to Ukraine and can shut simultan ~ 100 each 3 Min., up to 5 per position. = 500 precise hits within 15 -20 min allover the ukrainian part East, where the massive weapons are. Sch a hit would drop the military potential of the Ukranine 10 years back.
Putin did say !we don't intend to invade, but if we need to protect Russioan ppl (and Donbass are such) then we will do that". That is the point.
In such case scenario none of the NATO will/can do any strike against Russia, because they don't want to get their ships and position down with loss of own solders.

Posted by: Peter | Jan 26 2022 18:19 utc | 161

Posted by: dh | Jan 25 2022 0:22 utc | 79 / 92

You seem not to realise that a container is almost by definition, a moveable item.

Posted by: Jamsodonnell | Jan 30 2022 20:15 utc | 162

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