What Russia Says About Its Not-An-Ultimatum Demands To The U.S. And NATO
Russia has detailed its security demands to the U.S. and NATO in form of two draft treaties.
Besides yours truly many knowledgeable bloggers and publicists have also written about the issue:
- M. K. Bhadrakumar - Spectre of war is haunting Europe
- Andrei Raevsky (aka The Saker) - Russia’s ultimatum to the West (IMPORTANT UPDATE)
- Andrei Martyanov - People Asked, I Respond. On the Run.
- Gilbert Doctorow at Antiwar - A Surprise Russian Ultimatum: New Draft Treaties To Roll Back NATO
- Patrick J. Buchanan at Antiwar - What To Do About That Russian Ultimatum
- Gerard Toat in the Irish Times - Delusion on all sides has paved way for Russia-Nato standoff
- Andrei Raevsky again - What could happen next if the USA rejects the Russian ultimatum?
- Patrick Armstrong - WE’VE SEEN THE ULTIMATUM, WHAT IS THE “OR ELSE”?
Andrei Martyanov also explains the timing. Russia is technologically and militarily in a strong position and currently can survive a break with the 'western' world without too much trouble. The U.S. is in disarray and NATO not ready to fight. It is simply the right moment.
To add to his short video I will also note that it is winter and that Europe depends on Russian gas. Gazprom is no longer offering gas at European spot markets but only delivering in previously agreed quantities to long term contract partners. This puts pressure on German regulators to finally sign off on Nord Stream II which the U.S. and Ukraine want to prevent by all means. Russia does not need that pipeline but Germany does.
The timing thereby guarantees that the issues Russia has noted will get the appropriate attention in all of Europe.
Some 'western experts' like the anti-Russian Dimitri Alperovitch believe that Russia will wage war on Ukraine no matter what but especially if the U.S. and NATO reject the treaties.
I believe that to be false. If something has to be done about Ukraine, which is currently not the case, it will be a Gulf War 1 style war that will destroy its armed forces but not invade the country. It is not worth the effort.
Andrei Martyanov lists a number of impressive weapons systems Russia could set up on its ground or around the world and sell to "more than allies" China, India and other customers. The U.S. forces would thereby come under severe threats in several theaters.
I believe that Russia has also a number of impressive new arms and systems that it has not unveiled yet. Those too can be station in many places and can also get sold to its allies. Those who threaten Russia will come under at least equally strong threats in their offices and homes.
Raevsky and Armstrong present more options in their last pieces listed above.
Meanwhile Russia has increased the pressure on the issue. Throughout the last days everyone of higher rank relevant to foreign policy and defense has held some talk on the issue. All of them were translated to English. This will supposedly help to get the attention the Russian steps deserve.
When Russia talks one should listen. Here are therefore the relevant excerpts from all these interviews and speeches.
On December 18 in an long interview with Interfax Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, the point man for the treaties, explained the reasoning behind the demands:
The security situation in Europe, the Euro-Atlantic region and Eurasia has indeed greatly deteriorated recently. This has happened because of a series of concerted actions by the United States and its NATO allies, which, generally speaking, can be described as an attempt to undermine Russia’s security and to create a hostile environment around us. We cannot accept this.Ukraine is in the focus of this policy. Ukraine’s decisions are not independent but are subject to change in the situation. When the West provides unconditional and unqualified support to Ukraine, certain quarters in Kiev play up to the worst Western objectives and formulas. And the possibility of Ukraine eventually joining NATO, which some Ukrainian officials keep talking about, is categorically unacceptable to us. We will do our best to prevent this.
Ryabkov rejects to call the draft treaties an 'ultimatum' and he leaves open what Russia would do if the U.S. and its European proxies fail to react positively to Russia's concerns:
Question: But if, say, they reject our proposal, will that untie our hands?Sergey Ryabkov: We will use the appropriate methods and approaches we need to ensure our security. We do not want a conflict and we would like to come to terms on a reasonable foundation. ...
On December 18 Ryabkov's colleague Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko gave an interview to the Solovyov Live YouTube channel. TASS reported on it:
Russia will engage in creating counter threats if NATO turns down the Russian proposals for security guarantees, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said on Solovyov Live YouTube channel on Saturday."We are making clear that we are ready to talk about switching over from a military or a military-technical scenario to a political process" that will strengthen the security of all countries in the area of the OCSE, Euro-Atlantic and Eurasia, he said. "If that doesn’t work out, we signaled to them (NATO-TASS) that will also move over to creating counter threats, but it will then be too late to ask us why we made these decisions and why we deployed these systems."
On December 20 Grushko also gave an interview to Rossiyskaya Gazeta. He is asked what Russia would do if no agreement is found:´
Question: Mr Grushko, discussions of the action plan regarding NATO’s expansion, which Russia has proposed to Washington, are ongoing. You have mentioned a “military-technical alternative,” if NATO rejects Moscow’s proposals. What do you have in mind?Alexander Grushko: If our concerns are disregarded and NATO countries are not ready to show military restraint, we will have to use the response instruments at our disposal. There is no other option. If the other side decides to project, let alone use force, that is, if it applies its defence capability as a means of economic or political pressure, this will be unacceptable to Russia, and we will find methods to neutralise these threats.
Question: What methods could this be?
Alexander Grushko: For example, if strike systems capable of reaching our command centres within a matter of minutes are deployed in the territory of NATO countries, we will have to create an appropriate situation for them.
The flight time of a hypersonic missile fired from a Russian submarine stationed near the U.S. east coast (or from Cuba?) to Washington DC is impressively short.
Then Ryabkov talked with TASS:
Russia is ready for a military response if NATO keeps ignoring Moscow’s security concerns, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on Monday."I said that we would find forms to respond, including by military and military-technical means [if NATO ignores Moscow’s concerns again]," the high-ranking Russian diplomat told TASS.
"I reaffirm this. We will have to balance the activities that are of concern to us, because they increase the risks, with our countermeasures," Ryabkov said.
Yesterday Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov gave a long interview to a number of RT correspondents. A transcript is not yet available but the English language video is here. During the first few minutes Lavrov rips NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg a new one.
Also on December 21 President Vladimir Putin gave a speech at the annual expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry Board at the National Defense Control Centre. The part where he talks about defense modernization he mentions this:
We continued to actively develop cutting-edge weapons systems. Some of them, namely the Avangard and Kinzhal systems, have been put on combat duty.
Later on he demurs about U.S. weapons systems in Poland and Romania:
The Mk 41 launchers, which are located in Romania and are to be deployed in Poland, are adapted for launching the Tomahawk strike missiles. If this infrastructure continues to move forward, and if US and NATO missile systems are deployed in Ukraine, their flight time to Moscow will be only 7–10 minutes, or even five minutes for hypersonic systems. This is a huge challenge for us, for our security.
Putin explains how the draft treaties grew out of his virtual summit with Biden. He goes on:
[W]e need at least something, at least a legally binding agreement rather than just verbal assurances. We know the worth of such verbal assurances, fine words and promises. Take the recent past, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when we were told that our concerns about NATO’s potential expansion eastwards were absolutely groundless. And then we saw five waves of the bloc’s eastward expansion. Do you remember how it happened? All of you are adults. It happened at a time when Russia’s relations with the United States and main member states of NATO were cloudless, if not completely allied.I have already said this in public and will remind you of this again: American specialists were permanently present at the nuclear arms facilities of the Russian Federation. They went to their office there every day, had desks and an American flag. Wasn’t this enough? What else is required? US advisors worked in the Russian Government, career CIA officers gave their advice. What else did they want? What was the point of supporting separatism in the North Caucasus, with the help of even ISIS – well, if not ISIS, there were other terrorist groups. They obviously supported terrorists. What for? What was the point of expanding NATO and withdrawing from the ABM Treaty?
They are to blame for what is happening in Europe now, for the escalation of tensions there. ...
As to how Russia will fix that:
Naturally, as I have already noted, if our Western colleagues continue their obviously aggressive line, we will take appropriate military-technical reciprocal measures and will have a tough response to their unfriendly steps. And, I would like to stress that we are fully entitled to these actions that are designed to ensure Russia’s security and independence.
He later adds:
Given the complicated international situation, it is necessary to develop military and military-technical cooperation with states that are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation and to pay special attention to strengthening the defence capability of the Russia-Belarus Union State.
Putin's speech is followed by one by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. He explains the military situation from the Russian perspective. NATO and the U.S. are doing all they can encroach on Russia. Of the Ukraine he especially notes:
The military development of Ukraine’s territory by NATO countries is underway. The situation is being further aggravated by the deliveries of US and allied helicopters, unmanned combat aerial vehicles and guided anti-tank missiles. The presence of over 120 members of US private military companies in Avdeyevka and Priazovskoye, Donetsk Region, has been proved reliably.They are setting up firing positions in residential houses and social facilities and are preparing the Ukrainian special operations forces and far-right armed groups for active hostilities. Unidentified chemical warfare agents have been delivered to Avdeyevka and Krasny Liman for the purpose of provocations. The Ukrainian military keep up the shelling of civilian neighbourhoods in Donbass and the positions of the people’s militias of the Lugansk and Donetsk republics to provoke a response.
Shoigu details the exceptional amount of modern weapons the armed forces have received and concludes:
Comrade Supreme Commander-in-Chief,All the tasks assigned to the Armed Forces for 2021 have been accomplished. The Armed Forces’ combat capability has grown by 12.8 percent; the prescribed level of national defence capability has been ensured. The implementation of all signed contracts has ensured the delivery of over 5,000 main armament models. The rearmament of the Army and the Navy and regular servicing have made it possible to maintain military equipment in good condition at the level of 95 percent.
...
Russian society has a high regard for the Defence Ministry’s activities. Over 90 percent of Russian citizens are confident that the Armed Forces are capable of defending the country, and 88 percent are proud of the Army and Navy.
...
In accordance with your instruction, we will continue to ensure the sustainable development of the Armed Forces and to enhance their combat capabilities throughout 2022. We will discuss the results of our activities in great detail at our limited-attendance meeting.
Then Putin is back on with a more informal talk. He also rejects to call the draft treaty an 'ultimatum'. He bemoans the illegality of U.S. action:
As a reminder: everything that our partners – let us call them that – the United States has been doing in previous years, supposedly ensuring its interests and security thousands of kilometres away from their national territory – they have been doing these tough things, the boldest things, without UN Security Council authorisation.
He notes that sometime in the future the U.S. will also have hypersonic weapons like the ones Russia currently has or is fielding. It could station those in the Ukraine and directly threaten Moscow. Then comes the important part:
Armed conflicts and bloodshed are absolutely not our choice. We do not want to see events go that way. We want to use political and diplomatic means to resolve problems but we want to at least have clearly formulated legal guarantees. This is what our proposals are all about. We set them down on paper and sent them to Brussels and Washington, and we hope to receive a clear and comprehensive response to these proposals.There are certain signals that our partners appear to be willing to work on that. However, there is also a danger that they will attempt to drown our proposals in words, or in a swamp, in order to take advantage of this pause and do whatever they want to do.
To make it clear to everyone: we are aware of this, and this turn of events, these developments, will not work for us. We look forward to constructive and meaningful talks with a visible outcome – and within a definite timeframe – that would ensure equal security for all.
This is what we will strive to achieve, but we can do so only if the Armed Forces are developing properly.
Posted by b on December 22, 2021 at 19:19 UTC | Permalink
next page »While not 100% on-topic, this was an interesting entry by Craig Murray today.
This is verbatim from the official report of the UN General Assembly plenary of 16 December 2021:The Assembly next took up the report on “Elimination of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance”, containing two draft resolutions.
By a recorded vote of 130 in favour to 2 against (Ukraine, United States), with 49 abstentions, the Assembly then adopted draft resolution I, “Combating glorification of Nazism, neo‑Nazism and other practices that contribute to fuelling contemporary forms of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance”
I'm guessing - haven't dug in, in detail - that Russia was one of the abstainers. IF this was a 'woke' thing you can be certain that the US would have voted in favor. Hence, well...here it is.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/
Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 22 2021 19:47 utc | 2
Occam's razor, IMO, would say that Russia is about to commit a very short and devastating precision strike on targets in Ukraine with aim to destroy Ukie military capabilities.
1. yes, this is what western media is pumping up, but Russia will not invade, it will just destroy all US mercs and nazis and say: "so, what you gonna do about it?", and US and NATO will sulk and tuck it's tail and go home.
2. Russia is out of time, placing bases closer to US, or stationing subs or doing asymmetrical stuff around the globe takes time while NATO is at the door step - you do decisive and brutal *direct* response.
3. This could be avoided if west starts playing diplomacy game (which it will not) exactly because they believe Russia is all talk and no action, so it is additional reason for brutal and direct action.
Posted by: Abe | Dec 22 2021 19:53 utc | 3
Thanks for the posting b
I think Putin's last words which you bolded says it all
"
We look forward to constructive and meaningful talks with a visible outcome – and within a definite timeframe – that would ensure equal security for all.
"
Us pond scum get to be more colorful....
The jig is up, shit or get off the pot, put up or shut up, f%#& you and the horse you rode in on, stop your aggressive behavior or we will put it where the sun don't shine!!!
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 22 2021 19:58 utc | 4
Thanks b. Would be nice if the U$A's public knew, or even cared, about the REAL issue over the Ukraine, NATO expansion Eastward.
The operative paragraph;
"[W]e need at least something, at least a legally binding agreement rather than just verbal assurances. We know the worth of such verbal assurances, fine words and promises. Take the recent past, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when we were told that our concerns about NATO’s potential expansion eastwards were absolutely groundless. And then we saw five waves of the bloc’s eastward expansion."
The above Russian request is absolutely right on, but, falls on deaf ears, because the U$A's policy makers are greedy, and feel the need to subordinate every nation they deem as competitors to commercial hegemony.
Posted by: vetinLA | Dec 22 2021 20:04 utc | 5
This is Russia's price for staying "neutral" to the US.
"The Parties reaffirm that they do not consider each other as adversaries."
It is a heavy price that will cause the US and the euro-puppets to go crazy.
Notably, this isn't just about Europe, but about the world too. The US is not allowed to deploy nuclear weapons and long range weapons outside of its territory, and no military deployments in Central Asia either, which also affects China, Iran, and many other countries who are potential targets of the US.
So China is backing that too.
This is the answer to those who may want to do a "deal" with Russia in respect to China's and non-western countries rise. Russia is not leaving China alone. And even the price for Russian "neutrality" is high, and it favours indirectly China.
Posted by: Passer by | Dec 22 2021 20:19 utc | 6
Deep breath, now everyone join in -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMFIWBQB1kE
Posted by: tucenz | Dec 22 2021 20:23 utc | 7
Thanks for the list of articles; they all are quite good and worth reading, especially those by Patrick Armstrong and Gilbert Doctorow. I do have a question about your description of the 1991 Gulf War, as "a Gulf War 1 style war that will destroy its armed forces but not invade the country." . . . after the initial aerial bombardments, there were a large number of troops deployed in the first Gulf War, see the Wikipedia description:
The U.S. VII Corps was the primary combat formation of the coalition forces. It was a formidable fighting force consisting of 1,487 tanks, 1,384 infantry fighting vehicles, 568 artillery pieces, 132 MLRS, 8 missile launchers, and 242 attack helicopters. It had a total troop strength of 146,321 troops. Its primary full strength fighting formations were the 1st Armored Division (United States), the 3rd Armored Division (United States) and the 1st Infantry Division (United States). The 2nd Armored Division (Forward) was assigned to the 1st Infantry Division as its third maneuver brigade. In addition, the corps had the 2nd Cavalry Regiment (United States) to act as a scouting and screening force, and two further heavy divisions, the 1st Cavalry Division (United States) and the United Kingdom's 1st Armoured Division (United Kingdom), as well as the U.S. 11th Aviation Group.
I think this might actually be representative of what Russia might throw at Ukraine if they decide to clean house. They will go to Kiev and imprison those responsible for the years of slaughter in the Donbass, and they will restore the land bridge to Crimea.
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 22 2021 20:27 utc | 8
excellent coverage b.. thank you.... people will eventually wake up, in spite of the western msm bullshit... thanks to russia for developing a strategy here to deal with western malfeasance... it is long overdue and i am happy it is coming now... the usa-uk and gang better wake up fast, but i am not counting on it..
Posted by: james | Dec 22 2021 20:28 utc | 9
This is a good summary of the current situation. The part I had not previously noted was:
Alexander Grushko: For example, if strike systems capable of reaching our command centres within a matter of minutes are deployed in the territory of NATO countries, we will have to create an appropriate situation for them.
As noted above, this could imply submarines with hypersonic weapons off one or both of the US coasts, or something equivalent. Lets hope the crazies in the US understand that.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 22 2021 20:36 utc | 10
@2 Tom Collins
Here it is... UN General Assembly, Resolution A/RES/76/149
Here is the voting record: https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3951466?ln=en
Here are the abstensions (pardon the capital letters, extracted from the previous link):
ALBANIA , ANDORRA , AUSTRALIA , AUSTRIA , BELGIUM , BULGARIA , CANADA , CROATIA , CYPRUS , CZECHIA , DENMARK , ESTONIA , FINLAND , FRANCE , GEORGIA , GERMANY , GREECE , HUNGARY , ICELAND , IRELAND , ITALY , JAPAN , LATVIA , LIECHTENSTEIN , LITHUANIA , LUXEMBOURG , MALTA , MONACO , MONTENEGRO , NETHERLANDS , NEW ZEALAND , NORTH MACEDONIA , NORWAY , POLAND , PORTUGAL , REPUBLIC OF KOREA, REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA, ROMANIA , SAMOA , SAN MARINO , SLOVAKIA , SLOVENIA , SOLOMON ISLANDS , SPAIN , SWEDEN , SWITZERLAND , TONGA , TURKEY , UNITED KINGDOM
Posted by: ptb | Dec 22 2021 20:40 utc | 11
@tucenz | Dec 22 2021 20:23 utc | 7
That's very impressive indeed. Thanks!
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 22 2021 20:42 utc | 12
Why the insistence on "at least a legally binding agreement rather than just verbal assurances"? It's not like the US hasn't ever thrown any agreements into the dustbin when they became inconvenient or annoying in some other way.
Is this about show value? About appearing to be on the legal and right side of things? What is "legally binding" supposed to mean between two of the few countries who can realistically ignore (international) treaties without too many consequences? What will these legally binding agreements be worth when the non-agreement-capable party decides to shit on them anyway?
Posted by: pachinko | Dec 22 2021 20:47 utc | 13
Re: military showdown over Ukraine
Might be a good idea to take a step back... a major action is most unlikely, and that is a good thing.
A repeat of 2014 is possible, as there isn't really a way to prevent Ukraine from making that happen. It would then almost certainly end the same way, and Ukraine armed forces knows this. While they might sacrifice some units to make a show, is there reason to think they have become more suicidal now vs then?
At the same time, the force of 100k ish ground troops prepared to counter this, in Russia, still isn't a force that can possibly take over a country of 40 million. That kind of talk is buying into the western hysteria.
Posted by: ptb | Dec 22 2021 20:51 utc | 14
One factor which is not being taken fully into account are the quality of the Troops and Generals themselves.
This was a PPS on the Saker blog, but I think it sums up where we are.
"just to give you an idea of the mood in Russia, today’s “60 minutes” talkshow on Russia TV featured not one but TWO generals who are both also Heroes of Russia, including General Shamanov, the man who destroyed the Takfiris in Chechnia, and who declared that Russia will “rip into shreds” any imaginable enemy. Does anybody think that Shamanov is bluffing? I sure hope not."
The Russians Command and field forces get better positions (and more pay) if they have done active service in Syria. There were even a few smart alecs who falsified their "stays" in Syria and who were prosecuted for corruption.
Officers in the Russian Military are expected to lead from the front.
Desk type "warriors" are not welcome.
****
Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 22 2021 19:47 utc | 2
Wrong end. I believe the resolutions were proposed by Russia, at least one of them, but it does remind us that there is a very clear visceral -I'll be polite- "dislike" of Nazis by Putin. Understandably so.
Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 22 2021 20:52 utc | 15
@ pachinko | Dec 22 2021 20:47 utc | 13 who asks
"
What will these legally binding agreements be worth when the non-agreement-capable party decides to shit on them anyway?
"
Yes, the crux of the matter is, will we go forward rules based or rule of law based?
I expect it will be interesting how this distinction is made during the ass kicking of the schoolyard bully we are about to behold.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 22 2021 20:55 utc | 16
Meanwhile, the New York Times is dutifully keeping up the stream of anti-Russian material with this gem, as reprinted in the Sydney Morning Herald
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/how-the-kremlin-is-grooming-children-and-their-parents-for-war-20211222-p59jj2.html
USA will never be able to deal realistically with Russia until it recognises the impact of the German invasion on the Russian psyche.
Posted by: Extra | Dec 22 2021 21:09 utc | 17
And to those talking about the UN
The UN is a good idea but it currently is mostly good words but corruption of the structure and participants enough to give empire veto power where consensus should be forced to happen.
Go look up how many times Occupied Palestine has been attempted to be told to stop doing what they are doing by the UN.
Empire has veto power at the World Bank, IMF, SWIFT, BIS, and many Central Banks like the US Fed. These global institutions like the UN provide the curtain behind which the God of Mammon elite move the global levers of control.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 22 2021 21:11 utc | 18
I am as pro-Russia as the next commenter here. But this cannot blind me to the reality as almost all commenters here and Bernhard.
The moral right is fully on the Russian side. But the reality is that Russia cannot roll back the strategic advancements that the West has already achieved. Russia would have to turn itself into an aggressor to restore its good strategic standing, which would create a huge contradiction. The West does not have to do absolutely anything and will simply ignore the Russian demand for roll back and the security guarantees.
I am actually saddened and this pointless attempt to make noise to be heard. It reminds me of Ancient Greek soldiers slamming their swords against their shields. Russia does have the weapon supremacy but a weak strategic positioning.
Absolutely the only thing that Russia can do is roll the most advanced hypersonic nuclear missiles into Kaliningrad and onto submarines lurking near US. Even Cuba is somewhat unlikely to accept hypersonic nuclear missiles on its territory. But this will never stop the artillery bombardments of the Novorussian civilians.
Bernhard’s silliest point is this of selling the most advanced Russian weaponry to other parties. If the Russians had rocks in place of brains they would sell their latest technological advances to their potential future adversaries. Imagine for a moment that the US and NATO fall apart, which creates a power vacuum, which a former Russian friend may wish to fill up at the expense of Russia. For example, selling S400 to China, India and Turkey is one thing, selling S550 and S600 is a totally different proposition etc etc.
US and NATO are not too far from falling apart under internal pressures. This is the only chance for a roll back.
Posted by: Kiza | Dec 22 2021 21:22 utc | 19
Posted by: Kiza | Dec 22 2021 21:22 utc | 19
You forget that there has been talk of getting Russia away from China or at least to stay neutral to allow the US to concentrate on rising China.
Well, this is the price for it. It is too much for the US. So the question has been answered. There will be no Russia leaving China alone against the US.
Posted by: Passer by | Dec 22 2021 21:28 utc | 20
Logically, Israel voted Yes to the "Stop glorifying Nazism" resolution. Their current leadership isn't totally bonkers.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Dec 22 2021 21:31 utc | 21
Ever since George W. Bush withdrew from the ABM treaty, followed by Trump's cancellation of JCPOA and subsequent withdrawal from open skies and INF treaties america's credibility and signature is now worthless. Putin and his Stavka are well aware of this fact, so what's their real play with this gambit ? Even if Biden's principals committee agreed to some assurances and negotiate in ''good faith'', we can be assured that MAGA crazies (ted cruz, rubio, graham, wicker, etc.) and religious fundies from backward red states will never agree to said terms. 'Cause Gog Magog... So where does that leave us ?
But the sheer idiocy of european elites is a sight to behold. Asians already priced them out from the marginal barrel of oil, as the value added from asian usage of same oil would be higher than that of western nations. From now on demand destruction has to occur in the West, until the benefit of marginal barrel would equal that of China and Asia... Mindless sanctions notwithstanding, there's only so many Libya and venezuela to loot.
The same phenomenon is perhaps happening with the natural gas market. Asia and China can pay more given more added value from energy usage. We probably need to destroy demand in most wasteful and less value added areas of our economies in order to compete. Having a deregulated and privatized energy sector to please wall street hyenas and financial parasites just makes the whole situation a lot worse. So much for the road to serfdom. Without a free lunch from arbitrage, global south looting and seigniorage at the barrel of a gun, our economies are not that competitive. Interesting and dangerous times
Posted by: Boss Tweet | Dec 22 2021 21:32 utc | 22
As usual, Putin plays completely inscrutable game.
Therefore, apart from all the usual and more or less obvious scenarios, I'd like to offer one that is being overlooked.
It may be that in the course of upcoming negotiations, the Russians simply want the Americans to fix it on paper that "every country has a right to enter any security alliance it wishes". If the U.S. goes for it (obviously having Ukraine on its mind) then it effectively repudiates Monroe Doctrine, and opens doors for Cuba and Venezuela to start negotiations on entering CSTO.
That could be why Putin invited Bolsonaro to visit Moscow in 2022, to assure him that Caracas' official move into Russia/China domain would in no way be directed against Brazil or any other Latin American country.
Also, Putin recently broached the subject of coordinating with China activities in third countries. With Beijing money and Moscow's muscle as well as considerable soft power, this tandem will easily compete against the West all over the globe.
Cuba is the most logical starting point.
Posted by: Venom | Dec 22 2021 21:33 utc | 23
@pachinko 13
One could wonder if Gorbachev may not have been smarter than the current leadership of Russia when he did not ask for signed guarantees from his nedogovornosposobnye “partners”. Although one can ignore signed agreements mostly when one has strong military and economic dominance, which the US has no more. The situation would be somewhat different now.
It is just that I completely fail to see any reason why US would roll back and sign away its advantages already achieved. Nobody here ever addressed this simple question “why would they?”, only endlessly harps that they should. To state it in another way, Russia can only make the World a less safe place but it cannot make itself more safe by this noise.
Just like Stalin did with Germans, the Russians waited until their Western enemies started knocking on their front door (with artillery) to start reacting appropriately.
Posted by: Kiza | Dec 22 2021 21:40 utc | 24
This is a masterpiece, B.
Russia had always exercised restreint in selling military hardware to other allies. I guess this will no longer be the case ? What is the benefit of doing it ? We don't hear from Europeans who might be willing to negociate such an agreement with Russia. Big silence. I just wish Russia stay with the current plan, and don't waver.
Posted by: Bigben | Dec 22 2021 21:51 utc | 25
We know we can blame:
1) UKR-Murican Khazari-Ashkenazi Tribals like Nudelman-Khagan who coordinated the Coup in the First Place;
2) UKR-POL Nazi-Maidan;
3) UKR KleptOchlarchy Entities like Burisma which Bribed Murican Grift-Monkeys like Hunter and Dad Biden;
4) UKR-Murican Khazari-Ashkenazi Tribal Senator Chuck Schumer who Influence-Peddled Congress+WH from Investigating and Hammering Burisma, Bidens, and Zelensky;
5) UKR Khazari-Ashkenazi Tribals led by Clown-Parasite-President Zelensky...
6) Hunter+Joe Biden - Bribed and Ready to "Build Burisma Better".
Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen - European Geopolitics and the Well Being of Russia, Germany, EU+NATO Members - their Safety and Economies - are At Risk because of the Aforementioned Low-Lives of Kiev and Murica.
Kiev+Vicinity were plundered+sold after the Coup, with Grifters coveting+encroaching the Donbass while Whining about the "Invasive" Retaliation RUS will Inflict to Defend the Donbass.
Posted by: IronForge | Dec 22 2021 21:57 utc | 26
Supposedly there are enormous bunkers under the Capitol in Washington DC. Now imagine what a huge flood caused by a Poseidon (one of Russia's new weapons, according to Putin) would do to these bunkers and to all the military bases on the Potomac.
The Congresscritters and their aides probably think they would be safe underground, but chances are they would be among the first to die if they provoked a war with Russia. And they would die horribly: a slow, unavoidable drowning has to be one of the worst ways to go. Let them think about this before they monger another war.
Posted by: Cyril | Dec 22 2021 21:59 utc | 27
Another more recent and concise article by Gilbert Doctorow from His Blog that is very helpful
https://gilbertdoctorow.com
Posted by: K | Dec 22 2021 22:00 utc | 28
Why is there a total disconnect from reality in western media WRT to these statements?
The wake up is just beginning as in the quote below.
Russian honors long term contracts well below the spot price that it could extract.
The Russians aren't the ones breaking their word or agreements you have to conclude!
Posted by: JPC | Dec 22 2021 22:01 utc | 29
Why is there a total disconnect from reality in western media WRT to these statements?
The wake up is just beginning as in the quote below.
"Gazprom is no longer offering gas at European spot markets but only delivering in previously agreed quantities to long term contract partners."
Russia honors long term contracts well below the spot price that it could extract.
The Russians aren't the ones breaking their word or agreements you have to conclude!
Posted by: JPC | Dec 22 2021 22:01 utc | 29
Posted by: JPC | Dec 22 2021 22:03 utc | 30
I haven't had a chance to dig through all of the references, but I was contemplating this prior to reading the article. Reading the dribble coming from Biden through Blinken, they claim that "spheres of influence" are obsolete, but what is actually being discussed
are "zones of security".
Without these heads of government would have to be moved thousands of miles to the interior of continents, since Washington could be wiped out in about 2 minutes from a mach 10 sea launched missile, and Moscow is in a similar situation.
That would allow a decapitation first strike before anyone was aware of anything occurring. Given that situation the next logical steps would be moving heads of government and automatic doomsday devices. The first of VERY expensive, the latter is insane. Just watch "Dr Strangelove" again.
Logically, the correct solution would be nuclear disarmament.
Posted by: Michael.j | Dec 22 2021 22:04 utc | 31
We don't hear from Europeans who might be willing to negociate such an agreement with Russia. Big silence.
Posted by: Bigben | Dec 22 2021 21:51 utc | 25
The euro-puppets said EU can not negotiate with Russia, negotiations must be via NATO. That is, there is a reason why they are called euro-puppets.
Posted by: Passer by | Dec 22 2021 22:05 utc | 32
@Kiza
I don't think US is expected to accept.
In terms of negotiations, it's a starting point stating the desires of one side. US has the opportunity to make a counter-offer. The reason is the same one that was in place circa 1980, when slowly the reality sank in that the nuclear arms race had reached an absurd level of development, with (1) no marginal benefit, (2) increasing risk of an irreversible accident, (3) high cost at the same time as both US and USSR having (very different from each other) economic issues to work out at the same time. In the long run, all these things are still the case.
In terms of public relations, it's a wake-up call to third parties. This includes everyone - EU, Ukraine (perhaps most significantly), Turkey, Middle east, rest-of-the-world. It's also a preparation for the possibility that we're going to see a repeat of the 2014 situation. If it's a matter of a few thousands of ground troops and dozens or maybe a few hundred tanks, oh well. But both sides are more prepared now, and if an overconfident Ukraine and/or NATO sponsors introduce a more audacious element, combined with Russian response options that are obviously also much better prepared... imagine if NATO / European partners, after years of consuming their own PR, were to misread the Russian position... Being really really clear about it might be a useful thing to do.
Posted by: ptb | Dec 22 2021 22:05 utc | 33
@pachinko | Dec 22 2021 20:47 utc | 13
Why the insistence on "at least a legally binding agreement rather than just verbal assurances"? It's not like the US hasn't ever thrown any agreements into the dustbin when they became inconvenient or annoying in some other way.
The signing ceremony can be broadcast to the world; the US would pay a heavy price if it reneged on the treaty.
Posted by: Cyril | Dec 22 2021 22:06 utc | 34
Kiza @24 I am no geostrategist but I imagine Russia has many levers to pull, gas an oil being only the most obvious. My impression is that behind the bluster the US has decided playing with Ukraine is no longer worth the cost.
Posted by: Tim Glover | Dec 22 2021 22:11 utc | 35
Hey 19, when it comes to the Ukraine and to some extent, Syria, the Ruskies hold the better hand.
The reality is, for those dummies in DC, US/US-sycophants the over-reach that began under Clinton/Hillary, then continued during Cheney/Bush and reached it's zenith under Obama's regime are going to lead to the dismantlement of the US empire. What the Clinton/Hillary/Cheney/Bush/Obama/Hillary/Biden foriegn[& domestic] policies are going to accomplish is the creation of the world's strongest military alliance ever seen...and it will be arrayed against the US.
Heckofa job Bill-Hill-Dick-Junior-Obomb-Biden...outstanding; your abject abdication of foreign policy prerogatives to the 80yo "final solution" proffered by the Dulles Bro's brain trust has been an amazing spectacle to watch. Way to go, way to lose an empire through 20 years of non-stop stupidity. And a special shout-out to those boys and girls in the media who so publicly and so proudly prostituted themselves in aiding the destruction of the US empire.
Posted by: S Brennan | Dec 22 2021 22:11 utc | 36
@ Passer by 20
My third and final comment on this thread. One cannot believe everything one reads. Prying Russia away from China was always an empty talking point. On one hand Russia and China have an amazing natural military and economic complement and potential symbiosis. On the other hand US is chock-a-block full of Eastern European Jews (the neocons) who deeply hate Russia because it mostly successful dealt with their usual shenanigans, unlike US where they rule to the bone. Thus, I never considered a US-Russia alliance more than fantasy entertainment.
A while ago, I confronted both Martyanov and Saker on the point that Russia is not reacting when it should and that this may cost many Russian lives one day again as it did in WW2. Thus Russia allowed the perverse combination of Zionists and Nazis to entrench themselves in Ukraine and endlessly and deadly harass the Novorussian population. I sincerely and deeply hope that I was wrong and that Russia will bring the West to its senses, peace wins and the whole world holds hands and sings Kumbaya. But I totally fail to understand the point of the current Russian noise. Maybe there is some secret plan behind it that exceeds my simple brain, but maybe it is just the usual case of too little too late, the Russian bear has awaken and similar blah, blah.
Posted by: Kiza | Dec 22 2021 22:15 utc | 37
@ptb | Dec 22 2021 20:40 utc | 11
Here are the abstensions (pardon the capital letters, extracted from the previous link):
ALBANIA , ANDORRA , AUSTRALIA , AUSTRIA , BELGIUM , BULGARIA , CANADA , CROATIA , CYPRUS , CZECHIA , DENMARK , ESTONIA , FINLAND , FRANCE , GEORGIA , GERMANY , GREECE , HUNGARY , ICELAND , IRELAND , ITALY , JAPAN , LATVIA , LIECHTENSTEIN , LITHUANIA , LUXEMBOURG , MALTA , MONACO , MONTENEGRO , NETHERLANDS , NEW ZEALAND , NORTH MACEDONIA , NORWAY , POLAND , PORTUGAL , REPUBLIC OF KOREA, REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA, ROMANIA , SAMOA , SAN MARINO , SLOVAKIA , SLOVENIA , SOLOMON ISLANDS , SPAIN , SWEDEN , SWITZERLAND , TONGA , TURKEY , UNITED KINGDOM
Thanks for the list, ptb. I notice Russia isn't among the abstainers; Tom_Q_Collins is probably mistaken. Indeed, why would Russia, who has suffered so much from the Nazis, abstain from an anti-Nazi resolution in the UN?
Posted by: Cyril | Dec 22 2021 22:17 utc | 38
To make a long story short ...
Russia will prevent any former Russian Republic who is not already part of NATO from joining NATO and installing U.S. nuclear weapons, by any means necessary. If we do this, then they will never invade a neighboring country. https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en
See Art 2, 4, and 7
Since 'experts' in the U.S. are nothing more than paid liars, they exaggerate Russia's demands to saying that NATO is not allowed to have any forces on any former Republic. This makes their demands sound unreasonable.
-----------------------------
Now compare this to the U.S. Senate Neocons. They want to invade Venezuela because of a concocted Iranian presence that does not even involve nuclear weapons. Venezuela is over 1,000 miles away form the Florida Keys.
Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Dec 22 2021 22:17 utc | 39
my 36 comment should be corrected to read "Way to go, way to lose an empire through [30] years of non-stop stupidity."
Posted by: S Brennan | Dec 22 2021 22:27 utc | 40
@by: psychohistorian | Dec 22 2021 21:11 utc | 18
Empire has veto power at the World Bank, IMF, SWIFT, BIS, and many Central Banks like the US Fed. These global institutions like the UN provide the curtain behind which the God of Mammon elite move the global levers of control.
Yes. But at least the empire's control of the World Bank and IMF is becoming less important. According to an article published in 2019 in the Economist,
Such is the frenetic pace of China’s overseas lending that its outstanding loans have risen from almost nothing in 2000 to more than $700bn today. It is the world’s largest official creditor, more than twice as big as the World Bank and IMF combined.
(Emphasis mine.)
Posted by: Cyril | Dec 22 2021 22:35 utc | 41
Thanks Tom_Q_Collins @2, ptb @11, Stonebird @15, Cyril @38.
Russia was one of the authors of the resolution, if not the main one, and voted for it.
https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3894841?ln=en
Canada, under the Freeland-Trudeau regime, of course - again - abstained from voting on "Combating glorification of Nazism, neo-Nazism and other practices that contribute to fuelling contemporary forms of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance."
The Freeland-Trudeau regime as opposed to voting against the resolution as the Harper regime did in 2014-2015 - haven't checked other years - not that that's not much of a difference. That shows the hypocrisy of Justin's PR image of fighting racism and how principled he is ...
And our vaunted "free press", and especially our taxpayer-funded state news agency, CBC, will again - as they have done for years - never report on this to Canadians. We live in an Orwellian / Five Eyes / Ministry of Truth controlled state - control which likely will only get worse under our current deep state regime that responds not to the Canadian electorate, which has no sovereignty, but to the Five Eyes chain of command.
Posted by: Canadian Cents | Dec 22 2021 22:40 utc | 42
That should have read: The Freeland-Trudeau regime "abstained" as opposed to voting against the resolution ...
Posted by: Canadian Cents | Dec 22 2021 22:42 utc | 43
In past wars leaflets dropped from aircraft were used as a form of psychological warfare, to inform and demoralise. I wonder what methods and techniques are available in this tekno age to carry out similar operations? I'm just speculating, I hope other readers more knowledgeable can add information, but they could be such things as sending text messages to the personal phones of Ukraine armed forces members or hacking facebook pages or twitter accounts. Hacking of official Ukraine sources could be particularly useful in sowing confusion. In other words, what are the new methods of today?
Posted by: SoMuchToLearn | Dec 22 2021 22:46 utc | 44
>>Prying Russia away from China was always an empty talking point.
Actually if you look at western discussion on Russia-China relations the majority consists of "poor Russia will become a junior to China", "Russia will be swallowed by China", "Chinese will take Siberia" etc. so the western thinking is that Russia is afriad or in bad position vis a vis China and has no where to go.
Hence the overtures towards Russia (come back to G-7) that started during Trump.
The issue is that the deep state is divided, and that divide was exacerbated by Trump. Trump himself has proposed a G10 + Russia against China. There is anti-russian faction in the deep state but also anti-chinese faction, the anti-China faction has gone nowhere during Biden, and the bigger China becomes, the more triggered and influential anti-chinese forces will become.
"Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, said that European allies will have to do more to ensure their own defenses in face of a resurgent Russia because American will need to focus more attention on defending its interests in the Pacific."
What is the plan? As China rises, the US needs to concentrate on China. That means US troop reductions in Europe. The stronger China gets, the more important the Russia factor becomes, in order to balance China. And Russia has anounced what the price of neutrality is in advance, knowing where the world is moving and that the US will be forced by the circumstances of its decline vis a vis China to talk to it.
Posted by: Passer by | Dec 22 2021 22:53 utc | 45
Actually I was not trusting my eyes when I did read the reaction of the new German foreign minister today. For that you have to unterstand, that she did create an constant stream of adverse comments against Russia for years. She doesn’t accept them as equal partners. The bear first have to accept the west is superior in any field. Obviously somebody at here new job did teach Baerbock the meaning of Vladimir- ruler of the world/peace. Because I did never see a more balanced reaction before on anything coming from the east since 20 years. Of course it starts with that the demands can’t be accepted, but after it develops into we have to talk soon, find an agreement, respect each other, using the given tools of diplomacy, keep peaceful behave and so on. It did sound like that they start to think about how they will sell their public the coming contract already. Just from that perspective it was an impressive fast success for the russian side.
Posted by: rico rose | Dec 22 2021 22:55 utc | 46
@42 I also mistakenly posted the link to last year's resolution 2020. ptb @11 had the correct link: https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3951466?ln=en
Caitlin Johnstone recently had this excellent post (thanks to denk for the link in another recent thread.)
“Chinese Aggression” Is Just China Responding To US Aggression
https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2021/12/18/chinese-aggression-is-just-china-responding-to-us-aggression/
I bring it up because I feel that applies just as well in the case of Russia. What the Anglo-American propaganda machine wants the world to think of as “Russian aggression” is just Russia responding in self-defense to never-ending US aggression. What there is in common in both cases is the very same belligerent bully.
Posted by: Canadian Cents | Dec 22 2021 22:57 utc | 47
@Kiza | Dec 22 2021 21:22 utc | 19
The moral right is fully on the Russian side. But the reality is that Russia cannot roll back the strategic advancements that the West has already achieved. Russia would have to turn itself into an aggressor to restore its good strategic standing, which would create a huge contradiction. The West does not have to do absolutely anything and will simply ignore the Russian demand for roll back and the security guarantees.
By itself, yes, Russia would have trouble making the West behave without violence, or at least a threat of violence. But Russia and China working together is a very different story.
Consider a video by Cyrus Janssen, who has lived in China ("The Real Reason Western Media Lies about China"). At 12:01 of this 15:56-minute video are two astounding maps of the world, made from the IMF's direction-of-trade statistics, showing which countries (in blue) have the US as their main supplier, and which (in red) have China as their main supplier. In the first map, for the year 2000, few countries are red. In the second map, for 2019, nearly the whole world is red!
Posted by: Cyril | Dec 22 2021 22:58 utc | 48
Tom Q Collins @ 2:
It's my understanding that Russia puts forward this resolution at the UN denouncing Nazism, neo-Nazism and all other similar and related ideologies and practices EVERY YEAR and consistently votes YES. Interestingly Israel always votes YES.
The US and the Ukraine have consistently voted NO against this resolution whenever Russia presents it.
Those who consistently abstain include all the EU and NATO members, Japan and South Korea. In some years Canada has abstained and in other years has voted NO.
The draft resolution includes paragraphs that condemn the desecration of monuments dedicated to those who fought Nazism (including their removal or the exhumation of fallen soldiers or victims), the desecration, destruction or other removal of death camps and their buildings and structures, and the denial of the Holocaust.
I am not sure why this UN draft resolution should be thought typically "woke", especially when the vast majority of nations, especially in Africa, Asia and Latin America, whose publics have had little exposure to Critical Race Theory, consistently vote YES whenever Russia proposes it.
Posted by: Jen | Dec 22 2021 23:13 utc | 49
Hello Cyril, I like your comments and thus I will break my rule of up to three comments only per thread and respond.
The West is loosing on all fronts, even more on internal developments (suspension of rule of law due to a “health emergency”, deep corruption at every level of government, conversion of societies into fascism - rule of the corporations etc). Additionally, it is virtually impossible for the West to accept that it has lost all advantages it has had and that it is a has been (“I could have been a contender”).
The only thing the West can still do is convert itself into a global pest. This is not a long term strategy but it is viable as long as it does not cause a nuclear war.
Posted by: Kiza | Dec 22 2021 23:32 utc | 50
@Kiza | Dec 22 2021 21:40 utc | 24
It is just that I completely fail to see any reason why US would roll back and sign away its advantages already achieved. Nobody here ever addressed this simple question “why would they?”, only endlessly harps that they should. To state it in another way, Russia can only make the World a less safe place but it cannot make itself more safe by this noise.
Why would the US roll back? Imperial overstretch. Can the US afford to maintain its grossly overextended military presence worldwide? Its withdrawal from Afghanistan strongly suggests it cannot.
Overstretch is not some abstract financial spreadsheet. The rulers of the US seriously risk a revolt from their own citizens when the heavy burden of the empire becomes too unbearable.
Posted by: Cyril | Dec 22 2021 23:49 utc | 51
Rather than respond militarily, Russia should do like the US does and stage some coups in Mexico, and/or other central and South American countries and have them join a new Warsaw pact while putting in offensive weapons.
I will also add NATO is an outdated alliance that needs an enemy to justify its continued existences. Which is why the US keeps pushing Russia's buttons so it will respond.
Posted by: 10 to 1 | Dec 22 2021 23:59 utc | 52
Alperovitch is the CEO of Crowdstrike (the cybergang hired by the Daymockratic Party to "prove" its Russian hack allegations).
A man of questionable integrity.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Dec 23 2021 0:14 utc | 53
@Kiza | Dec 22 2021 23:32 utc | 50
Hello Cyril, I like your comments and thus I will break my rule of up to three comments only per thread and respond.
Thanks. Perhaps I should adopt the same three-comments-per-thread rule. :)
The West is loosing on all fronts
Yes. There will be a reckoning, external or (more likely) internal.
Posted by: Cyril | Dec 23 2021 0:17 utc | 54
Nice recap, b, of my long week in review thread comments spiced up with some other analysis. For those wanting to read the proposed treaties, and my article on Putin's Speech. I posted a comment and link earlier today related to when the reply might arrive, early January being the vague answer.
I see the lie machine--Whitehouse spokeswomen Psaki--is spinning as usual, but then what else did we expect:
"The US and NATO have no 'aggressive intent' towards Russia, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said, dismissing Russia’s warnings of a 'military-technical' response to any hostile steps as rhetoric not aimed at the US."
Again, the Outlaw US Empire prefers not to listen and instead makes up a reason not to:
"The remarks were not meant for the American audience altogether, Psaki claimed, apparently implying that it was merely tough talk for domestic consumption.
"President Putin has his own audience, it is not the US or the people who live here, I don’t think for the most part." [My Emphasis]
I watched him speak, read the entire transcript, and know very well he wasn't just speaking to the military audience that already knows the score. That the Russian government did its utmost to ensure all the recent interviews and speeches were rapidly available in English as well as Russian tells most intelligent people that the intended audience was English Speakers.
On the week in review thread, S cut/pasted the entire excellent article by Vladimir Kornilov I suspect few have read. And several other commentaries have now appeared, although I await what Crooke has to say over most.
But what do I think besides what I wrote yesterday? I expect those pulling Biden's strings to delay as long as possible, obfuscate, and continue to lay sanctions. Will Zelensky attack Donbass without Biden's okay? IMO, if that happens, the entire dynamic gets altered. Collectively, the West at the poker table in this game of 5-card Stud has no more chips to raise the stakes and can only offer an IOU that Russia won't accept; so, it's finally Call time. Russia has two-pair showing while the West looks like it's hoping for a straight. Does Russia have a Full House? Will the Outlaw US Empire's hole card fill its straight? Or will the Outlaw US Empire upend the table, accuse Russia of cheating, and draw its 6-gun?
Finnian Cunningham echoes many with this point:
"However, getting Washington’s attention and the latter actually listening are two different things. And, unfortunately, the signs are that the United States is not taking Russia’s existential security concerns seriously nor is it capable of framing the situation accurately.
"While appearing amenable to holding early talks with Russia on the security stand-off over Ukraine, nevertheless the Biden administration is still provocatively blaming Moscow as the cause of the entire problem. The State Department continues to accuse Russia of 'aggression' towards Ukraine and insists that Moscow must 'deescalate' the tensions as a condition for any forthcoming talks to be productive....
"In other words, the security talks that Washington appears to be willing to hold with Russia in the coming weeks are not based on proper respect nor on a premise of genuinely trying to resolve security concerns. The United States is persisting in peddling its distortion that Russia is to blame when the opposite is true. It is the United States and its NATO allies who are weaponizing the Kiev regime to foment dangerous tensions with Russia. It is the U.S. and its partners who are threatening and aggressing Russia, not the other way around. That distortion is in itself provocative." [My Emphasis]
Glenn Diesen made the same bolded point in his excellent essay, "Who is to blame for the Ukraine crisis?" from four days ago. Cunningham isn't at all optimistic:
"Russia has superb diplomats. They are more than capable of wiping the floor with U.S. and European counterparts when it comes to legal argumentation and logical reasoning. But even the most formidable diplomats can’t vanquish a falsified framework that is loaded like a gun to the head.
"The signs are that Russia is being lured into a trap. Washington and its accomplices are not serious about respectful negotiations to resolve security problems. Washington and its partners are the problem. Any engagement being offered to Moscow is an invite into a hall of mirrors while on the outside the threat continues to lurk."
That conclusion evokes images of the young Obi-Wan and Qui-Gon Jinn's attempted negotiations with the Trade Federation, much like the poker game described above. I'm sure we'll get more bologna from Outlaw US Empire politicos prior to Christmas.
Absolutely the only thing that Russia can do is roll the most advanced hypersonic nuclear missiles into Kaliningrad and onto submarines lurking near US. Even Cuba is somewhat unlikely to accept hypersonic nuclear missiles on its territory. But this will never stop the artillery bombardments of the Novorussian civilians.
You discount the current mood in Russia.....
I will summarize it.....
GO FOR BROKE!!
Russia can.... destroy the EU economy via the simple means of refusing to send hydrocarbon energy products to them....
This can be done via non-kinetic... non-violent means...
Via nationalizing all the pipelines... in total disregard of EU rules.... then claiming a need to "inspect" them... citing "safety" concerns for shutting them down in the mean time...
Via offering to sell hydrocarbon energy products at a premium price... in Roubles... Cash with order...
Via cultivation of "proxies" in the DonBas, Abkhazia, S. Ossetia, Chechnia, etc... who for whatever reason decide to make holes in the water out of NATO ships... craters out of NATO aircraft... etc...
Of course.... there is the kinetic option.... a mass attack with missiles...
As for controlling the Ukie population.... once their power plants are destroyed.... their refinery is destroyed... their bridges blown... their railway locomotives destroyed. their water supplies destroyed... their airports destroyed...
What's left???
INDY
Posted by: George W Oprisko | Dec 23 2021 0:57 utc | 57
The problem with red lines is then the US knows what buttons to push to get their war. The US wants a war in Europe. They want war everywhere. Realize the Russians do not have many options at this point since NATO continues to exist and push up against it's borders. NATO is simply a tool of US aggression. Would think the Europeans would know better by now.
Posted by: Joe | Dec 23 2021 2:08 utc | 58
... Or will the Outlaw US Empire upend the table, accuse Russia of cheating, and draw its 6-gun?
Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 23 2021 0:18 utc | 55
If it does, it will be shot in the back of the head the moment it touches its gun. Or if mercy is shown then just the gun will be shot from its hand and some beatings will follow.
Cyril, congratulations on your responses to that dildo (hence Hey 19 - Steely Dan...?).
Posted by: tucenz | Dec 23 2021 2:14 utc | 59
How many Euro/US/Vassal fodder are even aware of Russia's warnings? If they are, wouldn't it be the best time to round up their so-called bought & paid for Representation, The Usual Suspects and deal with them personally, mercilessly, thus showing Russia some good faith?
Posted by: WTFUD | Dec 23 2021 2:53 utc | 61
Of all the commentators so far, I think Doctorow is the most useful. He shows this démarche as originating publicly in 2007, and continuing through various episodes, but always in the terms of a complaint by Russia.
This is not a complaint. This, as Doctorow illustrates, is pure content, nothing less and nothing more. These are the terms, and the US has only to sign.
Thus, I think this truly is NOT an ultimatum. This is a precursor.
Russia has already decided what it must do, and this lies in the realm of "military-technical", which as Doctorow translates, refers to the deployment of hardware. Everything here is the necessary precursor to the new deployments by Russia of military hardware.
I suspect nothing whatsoever will happen with Ukraine - that's part of the complaint about NATO. That will resolve after the main target is stood down. That target seems to me clearly to be the United States of America. This is Russia directly addressing the USA.
~~
If the US does not respond in an agreement-capable manner, Russia will deploy armaments that conclusively, publicly and irrefutably guarantee physical damage to the continental US. They will be deployments that cannot be faced down by the US, short of using its nuclear ICBMs, and they will be such a deployment that guarantees the destruction of the US before its missiles reach Russia.
Catch-22 for the US. It draws its gun to aim for the head, and finds a knife at both its groin and its jugular. Impasse. Stalemate. Balance of power back to the ZERO it always needs to be for there to be peace between nations.
Nothing less than this would be of any value, and this is what Russia has already decided to do. Being Russia, it first lays the legal ground, satisfying the principles of international law. Then it will act.
Or so it seems to me. Doctorow somehow presents the correct gravitas by retelling the long duration of this effort by Russia to equalize the correlation of forces.
~~
By the way, I like the Vladimir Kornilov article posted by S and re-broadcast by karlof1. It points to essentially the same things.
Also - thanks, b, for a superb roundup and sifting of the news and views on this matter.
Posted by: Grieved | Dec 23 2021 3:17 utc | 62
@60 vetinLa - Catchy anthem
catchy lyrics too /s
Russian National Anthem in English:
Russia – our holy nation
Russia – our beloved country.
A mighty will, great glory –
These are yours for all time!Chorus:
Be glorious, our free Motherland,
Age-old union of fraternal peoples,
Popular wisdom given by our forebears!
Be glorious, our country! We are proud of you!From the southern seas to the polar lands
Spread our forests and fields.
You are unique in the world, one of a kind –
Native land protected by God!Chorus:
Be glorious, our free Motherland,
Age-old union of fraternal peoples,
Popular wisdom given by our forebears!
Be glorious, our country! We are proud of you!Wide spaces for dreams and for living
Are opened for us by the coming years
Our loyalty to our Fatherland gives us strength.
Thus it was, thus it is, and thus it will be forever!Chorus:
Be glorious, our free Motherland,
Age-old union of fraternal peoples,
Popular wisdom given by our forebears!
Be glorious, our country! We are proud of you!
Posted by: Grieved | Dec 23 2021 3:44 utc | 63
Greetings Fellow Barflies.
I concur with posters that believe that Russia will have to resort to
bellicose actions because she did not stop the bullying earlier.
Jen Paski sums up the US total disregard for VVP's warning by claiming
that President Putin was just acting for his internal public. Did not intend his words for the Americans.
What a cavalier way to deal with a solemn and stern warning from a man that can obliterate the World!
Wish I and others are wrong about it. But I will not be surprised if all
Hell breaks lose in the very near future.
Greetings
Posted by: CarlD | Dec 23 2021 3:46 utc | 64
Psaki is indeed right for once. The Russian ultimatum serves Russian psychological needs and nothing else. They just had to let off some steam.
Posted by: m | Dec 23 2021 4:35 utc | 65
Whatever the true imperial line on Russia's draft is, one will never learn it by listening to Psaki or any of the other imperial mouthpieces whose only job is to placate domestic opinion regardless of reality.
The fact that Psaki & co dismiss Russia's approach out of hand and seemingly with little concern bodes well I reckon.
We've all witnessed the spiels of a wide range of 'Imperial 'spokespersons' over the years and witnessed how countries, people, cultures are frequently sold down the river simultaneous with a whitehouse spokesperson claiming that this country, people, culture is foremost in the mind of the puppet prez.
I reckon that amerika will deal with Ukraine, Poland & Baltic states in exactly the same way as it dealt with Kurds, claiming fidelity and to love them like a brother while they ditch ''em the the duel crimes of (i) being no further use to the borg and (ii) being a hindrance to imperial aims.
amerika will pull back from former warsaw pact states just as soon as it can do so without being seen to have done so (euro-sluts will play a major role in this with stoltenburg dribbling outta both sides of his mouth at once). Hence the garbled guff drooling down Psaki's chin.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Dec 23 2021 4:51 utc | 66
@ Grieved at #62 who wrote
"
If the US does not respond in an agreement-capable manner, Russia will deploy armaments that conclusively, publicly and irrefutably guarantee physical damage to the continental US. They will be deployments that cannot be faced down by the US, short of using its nuclear ICBMs, and they will be such a deployment that guarantees the destruction of the US before its missiles reach Russia.
Catch-22 for the US. It draws its gun to aim for the head, and finds a knife at both its groin and its jugular. Impasse. Stalemate. Balance of power back to the ZERO it always needs to be for there to be peace between nations.
Nothing less than this would be of any value, and this is what Russia has already decided to do. Being Russia, it first lays the legal ground, satisfying the principles of international law. Then it will act.
"
I agree and thank you for the scenario. I still think there is a percentage chance for some sort of military show of force by Russia and maybe including China/Iran that forces the bully nations of empire to see themselves on the extinction side of further military escalation.....I am not an eye-for-eye sort but sometimes bullies take actual force to show their weakness exists and what is more important, IMO is to show the rule of law versus rules based order difference as acceptable social method of resolving conflict.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 23 2021 4:52 utc | 67
All these fantasies of a comeuppance to the American MIC and Deep State aside, there are those who think that this situation is more akin to the "real" missile crisis in the 1960s: the stationing of US nuclear missiles in Italy and Turkey.
That the attempt by Russia to position missiles in Cuba then was specifically to balance those - and that the resulting withdrawal (along with the withdrawal of US missiles from Turkey and Italy) were the true aim all along.
Under this thesis, the goal for Russia should there not be a comparable drawdown by the US' forces in Europe, would be demonstrations of forces sufficient to compel US acknowledgement of MAD.
Posted by: c1ue | Dec 23 2021 5:36 utc | 68
So gaming it out...They want a reconstituted EU and NATO IMHO.
The US couldn't agree even of they wanted to. They're dysfunctional and will be focusing on Covid anyway.
So Russia deploys shiny nuclear tipped weapons all over Europe and the anti-war greens are resuscitated. Europeans ask two questions: Why Russia is pointing their shiny weapons at them and whether they can defend against them. The second answer is NATO cannot defend against these weapons. And the first answer is that NATO poked the bear and so now they are returning the favour. NATO is now seen as both belligerent and impotent--an unfortunate combination for a mutual defense organization with too many tin pot members. If I recall the EU is pledged to defend NATO as well (a relic from WWII) but the EU needs serious reforms and could become more of a trade than a pseudo democratic social arrangement. So Europeans will ask: why not reconstitute the EU, dump NATO, and become independent and at peace with those that keep is warm in winter? Soon, Europe will eat all the risks and enjoy few of the rewards with NATO. Russia's negotiation with NATO could include security guarantees too. That way Europe gets a formidable defense alliance, S500s at every capital, keeps their 2% of GDP, Eastern Europe gets a leash for Russia, Europe keeps their biggest trading partner--China. Europe is at peace and prosperous. Russia's moves will crystallize that case to Europeans.
Posted by: bobzibub | Dec 23 2021 5:57 utc | 69
Nothing like a summing up of our current interesting times withe German military precision. Much appreciate you pulling all that together b.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Dec 23 2021 6:44 utc | 70
News about Russia in our paper of reference “El País”, our local NYTimes, which by the way is owned by a US investment fund, yesterday was the Dutch prosecutor of the MH17 case asking for life in prison sentences for the absentee accused, three Russians among them Girkin/Streltsov. Today the pains and travails of some transgender member of an obscure party in the Altay republic. All the news that’s fit to print…
Congratulations b, as usual an orderly framing of all the madness that is going on plus a list of fundamental sources, when things cool down a bit maybe you can take a closer look at the trans situation in the Altay Republic, the future of the world depends on it.
Posted by: Paco | Dec 23 2021 6:46 utc | 71
paco... you have me interested!!! the trans, as in transportation situation, or the trans as in transgender situation?? thanks... am i sticking my foot in my mouth here? lolol...........
Posted by: james | Dec 23 2021 7:27 utc | 72
The American way of war: Just fly around out of reach, and bomb the fuck out of the enemy until they give up. It’s nice when it works.
But what when it stops working? To inflict unacceptably high risk on US aircraft, Russia could outsource manufacturing of advanced air-to-air missiles to China, and provide Iran with blueprints for older, but more easily mass-manufactured anti-aircraft missiles. Suddenly the focus would no longer be Ukraine, but Taiwan and the Middle East.
Posted by: Passerby | Dec 23 2021 7:50 utc | 73
re: james | Dec 23 2021 7:27 utc | 72
as a canadian, surely you would think of this - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans_(album)
Posted by: tucenz | Dec 23 2021 8:05 utc | 74
@Kiza | Dec 22 2021 23:32 utc | 50
The only thing the West can still do is convert itself into a global pest. This is not a long term strategy but it is viable as long as it does not cause a nuclear war.
The West is literally converting itself into a global pest, otherwise referred to as the "pandemic".
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 23 2021 8:48 utc | 75
A bit of lateral thinking which still relates to the subject.
The Russians have already worked out what are the most probable US reactions to their Statements. Fudge, forget, or fiddle. (FFF, or as once used in the UK, "Faffing" about)
However, this is use of what should be called "softPower or good PR" as well as being tough.
So one part of their future efforts could be to create "the beginning of the end" (of the US) and try to isolate it from other countries. Using both Soft and financial power as well as military. As a parallel to Chinese lending, the BRI and the offers to countries to join the SCO etc. Offering military clout to potential "dissatisfied" countries.
**
Example of lateral thinking would be to offer to supply; those floating nuclear stations that they are able to build. Cuba has just bought it's seventh Floating barge (electricity) from Turkey to make up for their shortfall in power.
What would the US think or do if a floating Russian nuclear power station was moored in Cuba?
Or in Venezuela. There must be many other places that could do with a guaranteed (nuclear) power structure?
**
Note I said "supply", leaving aside the "sale, lease" or gift" for a later date.
Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 23 2021 9:39 utc | 76
Posted by: George W Oprisko | Dec 23 2021 0:57 utc | 57
Russia can.... destroy the EU economy via the simple means of refusing to send hydrocarbon energy products to them....This can be done via non-kinetic... non-violent means...
Via nationalizing all the pipelines... in total disregard of EU rules.... then claiming a need to "inspect" them... citing "safety" concerns for shutting them down in the mean time...
Via offering to sell hydrocarbon energy products at a premium price... in Roubles... Cash with order...
Via cultivation of "proxies" in the DonBas, Abkhazia, S. Ossetia, Chechnia, etc... who for whatever reason decide to make holes in the water out of NATO ships... craters out of NATO aircraft... etc...
Of course.... there is the kinetic option.... a mass attack with missiles...
As for controlling the Ukie population.... once their power plants are destroyed.... their refinery is destroyed... their bridges blown... their railway locomotives destroyed. their water supplies destroyed... their airports destroyed...
What's left???
Not much is left. That's the point, isn't it?
From a US perspective, this sounds like a pretty good deal. I mean, what's not to like? Effortlessly killing that dreaded continent-wide merger that is keeping everyone up at night. Sure, bring it!
Posted by: robin | Dec 23 2021 10:25 utc | 77
RE Posted by b on December 22, 2021 at 19:19 UTC | Permalink
“Andrei Raevsky (aka The Saker) - Russia’s ultimatum to the West (IMPORTANT UPDATE)”
"I read what saker wrote about possible responses. Most of them are playing on the “decoupling” field that the western nations are already into."
via
"Facility is often a facilitator of bias.
Analysts and strategists adopt different roles."
In non-professional circles this is often rendered as "Hammers often see nails" which others suffix with "as a function of their design".
"Talking about hazy options that a strategist will take doesn’t help."
You are mistaken - speculation increases the noise to signal ratio increasing doubt in those whose (lack of) facility encourages them to interpret notices of intents with "ultimata" facilitating another iteration of reliance on belief.
In another thread "The Saker" includes an interpretation of data that Mr. Putin shared with a number of military practitioners in which he included - "Good afternoon, comrade officers".
Try removing all direct military references including Mr. Putin's framing and read this "edited" version of "The Saker"'s interpretation of Mr. Putin's datastream including but not limited to " the annual expanded meeting of the Defence Ministry Board","This was due to their wrong assessment of the situation at that time, due to their unprofessional, wrong analysis of probable scenarios." and "US advisors worked in the Russian Government, career CIA officers gave their advice".
" I can’t see many that don’t play the decouple tango. "
You are not alone - that was part of the purpose and likely informed the register of Mr. Putin's datastream.
One of the more recent mantras of "representative democracy" is everyone is entitled to their own opinion, a lateral projection of a previous mantra "We the people hold these truths to be self-evident.." which contributes to "That’s why I am inquiring and seek for possible answers" which some truncate by reliance on belief to attain/maintain believed/perceived self-significance.
Hence Mr. Putin's point " A lot depends on their knowledge, experience, personal qualities, and those who make truly unconventional decisions win battles.", not Mr. Napoleon's mantra that - Every soldier carries a Marshal's baton in his backpack - ergo they are all the same, but co-operate more fully before they become Marshal's, than they do after they become Marshal's - the retreat from Moscow 1812-13 refers.
Posted by: NotEuclid | Dec 23 2021 10:58 utc | 78
Deep breath, now everyone join in -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cMFIWBQB1kE
Posted by: tucenz | Dec 22 2021 20:23 utc | 7
This one is more dramatic. Spoken words "Resolution is accepted. We are joining Russia!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QELap5eM-e0
Lyrics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sacred_War
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 23 2021 11:32 utc | 79
Russia does have the weapon supremacy but a weak strategic positioning.
Absolutely the only thing that Russia can do is roll the most advanced hypersonic nuclear missiles into Kaliningrad and onto submarines lurking near US. Even Cuba is somewhat unlikely to accept hypersonic nuclear missiles on its territory. But this will never stop the artillery bombardments of the Novorussian civilians.
Posted by: Kiza | Dec 22 2021 21:22 utc | 19
I think Kiza is, happily, quite wrong. The logic of limited war is to avoid escalation but match it when it happens. In the aftermath of Russian demarche (locally in Ukraine, it is an ultimatum), the shelling in Donbas ceased. Zelikovsky becomes hysterical -- not reported in the West, but quite pitiful. Russia deployed big and positive changes in ORDLO, that will painfully contrast with the decay in Kiev territory. The West is trickling weapons to Kiev, but also forbids provocations.
If the Ukrainian and Western restraint ceases, so will Russian, offending artillery can be annihilated from high altitude (above the range of Ukrainian defenses), probably by the book: strike at air forces and air defenses first, at artillery position second, prevent the movement of heavy equipment third. Later Russia would have a smorgasbord of options.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 23 2021 11:52 utc | 80
As for controlling the Ukie population.... once their power plants are destroyed.... their refinery is destroyed... their bridges blown... their railway locomotives destroyed. their water supplies destroyed... their airports destroyed...
What's left???
INDY
Posted by: George W Oprisko | Dec 23 2021 0:57 utc | 57
Russia under Putin would never do that. In Georgia, Russia destroyed a lot of military hardware, and the collateral damage was small. Ukraine is formed from three regions with historical, linguistic and political differences. South and East was settled after 1780 and is not using Ukrainian as preferred communication medium. Where would Russia want to destroy? Not in friendly regions. Not in regions that would be too much bother to control. Donbas would be replaced with a larger region that demands autonomy and is helped by Russia, and otherwise, the situation would fit the framework of Minsk agreements.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 23 2021 12:02 utc | 81
Posted by: m | Dec 23 2021 4:35 utc | 65
That's what they thought before Osetia, Abkhazia, Crimea and Donbass happened too.
Posted by: Passer by | Dec 23 2021 13:18 utc | 82
I spend my time, retreated from society, writing thinking and image-making. My perception is thus necessarily the long haul. But these last few days my first source of information, anti-system bloggers, was overtaken by much fantasy. Bernhard, was one of the lone voices who kept thinking straight. For that I'm grateful to him.
Since we are in this period of the Year I hereafter share a Geopolitical Christmas Tale that is rooted in the last episodes of actuality.
As a preamble…
Power in today’s world is far more complex than a matter of military dominance. Moscow, Beijing and Washington have furthermore an acute understanding that the present Geopolitical contradictions can’t be solved by a world war which would simply cut the escape of their societies and plunge their citizens in a Berezina. In that sense Geopolitics has now to be viewed as the systemic complexity of the interactions between the open societal fields (internal and external) of all nations on earth.
The present Geopolitical moment is a very special moment indeed.
1. Two trends have been solidifying over the centuries of Western Modernity :
1.1. On one side the center of gravity of the economy-world has been shifting, away from the West, toward East-Asia and more particularly toward China :
This is the 8th such a shift of the center of gravity of the economy-world over the entire span of Modernity… What is different this time is that the center of gravity is leaving the territorial area of the Western civilization which explains the madness that has overtaken Western capitals !
1.2. On the other side Western countries have been accumulating a multitude of side-effects over the last centuries of Modernity. The nature of these side-effects is double : – damages to the habitat of living species (nature) through different forms of pollution – damages to the societal organization of the human species through the pollution of ever more individualism that is concluding presently with the cancer that is societal atomization.
2. The present moment is more particularly characterized by “The Great Convergence of Late-Modernity” :
2.1. The convergence, within Western societies, of Neo-liberalism and Postmodernism has given a superficial globalization of Western Modernity to the 4 corners of the world while internally this convergence has forced Western societies into – societal inequality – pauperism – hyper-individualism – a complete loss of meaning – an individual feeling of isolation – etc… These are all aspects of societal atomization which means that such societies are no longer united entities and in that sense successful collective undertakings are no longer in their reach (no shared worldview left to glue the individuals in a unified societal whole).
2.2. The convergence, within nature, of a multitude of side-effects, that resulted from “the reason that is at work within the transformation of money into capital”, were called “externalities” because capital refused to pay for eliminating their life disrupting character. These side-effects have thus been left to freely disrupt the equilibrium that has ensured the abundance of flora and fauna and more particularly the stability that ensured an ever increasing complexity of human societal life over the last 10,000 years…
2.3. Lately the effects of these disruptions, within Western societies and within nature, have started to converge and are forcing humanity to face its predicament : “what now ?”. Most of us are oblivious to this predicament. But most scientists and some public decision-makers, a rarity in the West, are well aware of this situation… Those of us who listen carefully know for a fact that Beijing and Moscow are realist and are thus well aware of the extreme complexity of the present situation :
— An acute awareness has emerged in the minds of the realists that to face the predicament of humanity it is indispensable, first and foremost and also urgently, to solve 1.1. which basically calls for a new world order in which the West is forced to play by the new rules of the game that the community of nation decides upon.
— The United Nations’ effort to combat climate change has taught a few important lessons :
** the West will never contribute in an adequate manner for the bulk of externalities that it is directly responsible for
** climate change is merely a symptom of the larger problem which is that the side-effects of Modernity are destroying the habitat of living species
A Geopolitical Christmas Tale…
Moscow and Beijing are well aware of the disintegration of the cultural, social, and economic realities in the West that I sketched in 1.2. and in 2. and they have patiently been waiting for the most propitious moment to initiate a strategy to placate the West. It so happens that their forecasting services alerted them to an exceptional convergence of factors that would culminate with the Beijing Winter Olympics.
Whatever the Western propaganda might be trying to force in the minds, of the people of this earth, the fact of the matter is that Western countries, in 2020, have entered the greatest depression in the whole of Modernity and this depression is bound to last, at the least 10 years but most probably more, creating massive poverty and misery while disintegrating the sickest national societies.
Covid first deflated the Western financial bubble in 2020. The FED’s response was the shuffling uncounted trillions of dollars of paper around the economy in the hope of igniting the animal spirits on Wall Street. This was realized, among other, by :
— Cutting Federal funds rate to a range of 0% to 0.25%
— Purchasing massive amounts of debt securities with a questionable value
— Colossal amounts of low interest rate loans to the largest primary dealers
— Lending to banks against collateral in IOUs or commercial paper
— Funneling cash to overnight repo-markets
— Expansion of International swap lines
— Massive amounts of funding to foreign central banks without swap lines
— Cash to the banks against questionable paper collateral at the discount window
— Support of the flow of credit to U.S. corporations
— Lending to corporations through the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF)
— Lending to households, consumers, and small businesses against asset-backed securities
— Backstopping municipal and state borrowing
— Etc…
The result of this financial largesse became visible in the second part of 2021. An ever increasing inflation sows misery in the poorest families. People resist this inflation by claiming higher wages which results in the multiplication of social conflicts.
We recently discovered that all this would be topped this winter by a new wave of Covid infections. The forecasts indicate that the Omicron surge could push the number of infections to their highest level yet. The UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin projects that by the end of January, more than 500,000 people could catch the virus every day on average … with and estimated 3,876 deaths per day on average…
In sum the West is confronted with : societal disintegration + the greatest of all depressions + hyperinflation + social conflicts + a new Covid wave that could be worse than the earlier ones. The least we can say is that this fatally weakens the US and the same can be said of Europe.
And then, in such a very particular context, comes the following...
1. 2021-12-07 : Putin and Biden have a 2 hour video-talk about the Ukraine crisis.
2. 2021-12-07 : President Biden says that putting American troops on the ground in Ukraine to deter a potential Russian invasion is "not on the table" and that he hoped there would be an announcement by Friday 9th of high-level meetings with Russia and major NATO allies to discuss Moscow's "concerns relative to NATO writ large" and the possibility of "bringing down the temperature along the eastern front."
3. 2021-12-15 : Putin and Xi have a video call and discuss tensions in Europe and the "aggressive" U.S. and NATO rhetoric. Wang Wenbin, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, answered the following to a reporter who asked him what was the outcome of this video-call :
“The world is witnessing the combined forces of changes and a pandemic both unseen in a century against the backdrop of complex and profound changes in the international and regional landscape. We believe that China and Russia, two permanent members of the UN Security Council, take on an important mission in defending regional peace and stability and promoting development and the revitalization of all countries.
For some time, certain countries have been drawing ideological lines, building new military blocs and stoking regional tensions, which have all brought grave threats and challenges to regional peace and stability and global strategic stability. China and Russia firmly reject this.
We will continue to follow the two leaders’ consensus, take up responsibility, unite all forces that love peace and support peace, and make active contribution to realizing sustained, universal and common security in the region and the wider world.”
There was no way for China to assert more clearly that it is siding with Russia in its demands… but everyone seems to have missed the seriousness of the Chinese side ...except for M. K. Bhadrakumar who is one of the most lucid observers out there.
Few people understand the meaning of the expression “the two leaders’ consensus”. This expression relates to the will of their countries to see these two leaders in place for the long haul during the stabilization of the post-Western world order. Both countries, not in their unanimity but certainly in their large majority, have sensed since some years already that they have someone unique in their present president. A person who outshines the other decision-makers around them in term of their stamina and their mental clarity. How it is possible, that the West does not get this, is beyond my understanding ?
4. 2021-12-17 : Moscow releases the texts of two documents in the form of two draft treaties that many interpreted as an ultimatum of Russia to the West.
5. 2021-12-17 : Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg asserts the alliance’s prerogative to intervene in Ukraine and bluntly rejects Moscow’s notions that it could have a say on the alliance’s future expansion plans.
6. 2021-12-19 : Christine Lambrecht, German Minister of Defense, Asserts that NATO was willing to discuss Moscow’s demands but would not allow Moscow to “dictate” to the alliance or its partners.
By the 20th of December Western media were littered with articles belittling the partnership between China and Russia as “still having an artificial flavor” and suggesting that China would never fight the US along Russia. Ultimately, they proclaim, Russia will join the West in defeating China. But this is the propaganda of a rear guard of Western ideologues who are bluffing their way trying to force their madness on all nations that refuse to submit to their unilateral order.
The Russian treaty/ultimatum has to be understood as a first act in a wider strategy that is being played out, in concert by Russia and China, in order to provoke the financial and economic fall of the US.
But why pushing the US to fall precisely now ?
Well the present context offers a unique opportunity. The Chinese sages never tired to repeat that if you are forced to fight you do it when your enemy is at its weakest ! And the present Geopolitical context announces the coming of the peak viral catalysis infesting Western societal wounds. This is why pushing the US to fall precisely now has the best chances to succeed.
Now about China. This is an a-religious country.
Its early-power society grew, as the outcome of the cultural unification of its tribes, sometimes between 6000 and 5000 years ago. And thereafter it constantly actualized animism with present changing trends by topping it with add-ons in the same way as open-source software integrates innovations from the community… Now animism was a highly pragmatic knowledge formation approach that is rooted in observation over the very long haul that led to the induction of abstract principles from this observation. Animism remains in application today in its appellation of “Chinese Traditional Culture” which is a form of animism+.
This means that China is — a-religious — highly pragmatic — and a reserved nation with reserved individuals.
What this means is that the Chinese thinking is not driven by ideology and is not experiencing the need to impose itself on others. Having said that the Chinese have been observing the vile racist aggression coming out of the West over the last few years. They have spoken little. They have observed and have been thinking hard. And now they are at the end of their strategic patience. Chinese leaders know darn well that they have not much of a history in diplomacy which means, if I may say so, that their practice has not had the time yet to grow into a perfectly polished whole. That is why China, in all humility, openly recognizes Russia’s ‘panache’ in the diplomatic field and now relies on it to position its own.
So it was only natural for China to let Russia publicly initiate the decisive movement forward in their common play for a new world order. China publicly sided with Russia when it announced its treaty-proposal/ultimatum and what is most important is that China detains the weapon of last resort which is the termination of US dollar payments for the delivery of its goods and services.
Fast forward…
Russian leaders have informed their Western counterparts that if they do not start to negotiate soon they will take the necessary technical measures to make them understand that they are deadly serious. It seems that Westerners have understood this part of Russia’s argument. Russian leaders even went further and informed very publicly that if the West was participating in negotiations in order to drag them down they would use their technical means to awake Western attention.
The latest news is now that negotiations will start in the beginning of January 2022. In the eyes of the Russians one month is amply sufficient to reach an agreement and if there is no agreement by the end of the month they say that they will act.
Coincidentally President Putin and President Xi will meet in Beijing to open the Winter Olympics on the 4th of February 2022 at Beijing National Stadium. The Russian timing of the conclusion of its negotiations with the US and Nato coincides thus with the very public and media relayed meeting of President Putin and President Xi ! Ho ho...
Now the fact is that the discourse of Russian leaders leaves no place for a 3rd alternative as a possible outcome of these talks. From what we hear it is — or “we have a deal” and the West accepts a retreat to its posture before the fall of the Soviet Union — or “we have no deal” and China and Russia, on the 4th of February, announce their further game-plan to the world.
Some Russian officials have already announced that one of the measures that they could take if there is no agreement is to refuse payment in dollars for any goods they export… And the fact is that China’s Digital Yuan is ready for use by the Chinese public at large. By October there were already 140 million people who had opened “wallets” and remember that this digital yuan has been designed, over the last 7 years, to act as a new technical payment system for international exchanges that will thus for the first time be free of Swift’s intervention and Washington’s judicial long arm… This Digital Yuan will also be connected to block-chains that will handle the currency exchange between Yuan and local currency, the final payment as well as tax matters, transportation matters,… all this promises to erase the hefty bank commissions and lengthy bureaucratic delays which should catch the attention of the buyers of Chinese goods while reducing the volume of exchanges in US dollars.
To get a sense of how the digital Yuan is going to impact the world watch these 2 interviews of Richard Turrin who is one of the most knowledgeable English speakers about the subject.
China’s Central Bank Digital Currency by Fat Tail Investment Research
Big Tech in China and the Digital Yuan by Oriol Caudevilla
The reader is encouraged to imagine the conclusion of this Christmas tale...
The Saker has posted Putin's Annual Press Conference. IMO, Putin appears angry and seems very stressed when asked about the situation with the US and NATO.
Consider his answer to an English reporter from the BBC; he begins his second answer to her at 1:34:50 and after a couple minutes, he says:
"Go to Hell with your concerns, we will do whatever we see fit."
I find this very uncharacteristic of what I have come to expect from him and it is almost unsettling. But Russia has no reason to receive any sort of realistic response from the US and NATO, who are fools who believe their own propaganda. I fully expect some very serious actions from Russia in the near future.
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 23 2021 14:45 utc | 84
Gazprom is no longer offering gas at European spot markets but only delivering in previously agreed quantities to long term contract partners.
An important clarification - Gazprom does not offer gas because there are no corresponding requests from European partners. It is impossible to "simply" supply gas without knowing for sure (and in advance) whether someone will buy it or not.
to Kiza @ 24:
I too see no reason why the US would back down. Maybe if they get their nose bloddied somewhat, but that has (understandably) been avoided so far because it could spiral out of control fast.
to Cyril @ 34:
What price would the US have to pay? It's western vassals will readily swallow any and every bullshit story about how evil Russia forced the US to break the treaties - there is no kind of resistance or dissent to be expected from them. Most of the people who might point out that the US has again shat on another treaty will conveniently be people already designated as propagandists/enemies. It'll be SSDD.
Posted by: pachinko | Dec 23 2021 16:34 utc | 86
As various commentators have pointed out, if you are going to accept an offer from Russia, always accept the first offer. After that with each offer the stakes will get higher and higher.
I think Russia doesn't want to pussy-foot around with negotiations with the US because they know the US will only try to play games, therefore they have deliberately set the conditions so high that the US cannot accept until it has been brutally softened up. I hope the US can keep track as the stakes go up higher and higher with each iteration!
First offensive will be Ukraine. An ultra-fast snap offensive using stand-off weapons and crack special forces. Russia will secure the whole of eastern and coastal Ukraine up to Odessa and the border with Transnistria (most of that using Donetsk/Lugansk forces supplemented with "volunteers", enabled and facilitated by massive standoff weapons support), so that rump-Ukraine will not even have any coastline. US and NATO military assets in Ukraine will be destroyed along with all of Ukraine's military capability, and all the recent US weapons handovers. Within less than 30 minutes all escape routes for war criminals will have been destroyed. Within less than 60 minutes special forces will be in Kiev hunting down key war criminals. All diplomatic buildings in Ukraine will be barricaded, supposedly for the "protection" of the occupants, and all communications cut or jammed - nobody will be allowed in or out of embassies. Right from the first minute Russian military media specialists will be recording "Shock and Awe" military porn so advanced and so blitzy and glitzy that the US "shock and awe" in Iraq will look stoneage by comparison, and this will be live-streamed to the West, using in-place assets to record both the launch and hit of hypersonic weapons, supplemented by live-updated maps showing key advances. Key war criminals will be secured, lesser war criminals gradually mopped up. Within 2 or 3 days Russia will force a handover of power to a Ukrainian interim regime. Any US/NATO war criminals taken captive in Ukraine will be secured in Russia, but no public word of war trials against US/NATO prisoners at this stage.
Next comes Russia's second offer with raised stakes. The second offer will include surrender and dismantling of all biowarfare labs - especially those in countries close to Russia and China; Fort Dettrick and Porton Down will probably be reserved for later.
It will be a busy winter! Europe will be cold due to gas shortages and high prices. I would hypothecate that maybe even some equipment failures will cause unexpected power outages and oil/gas distribution problems in the US so that the US will also be very cold. Most US infrastructure is in such a bad state and so incompetently managed it will quickly fail when society is under pressure, simply through fear and trembling of officials, which lead to dangerous mistakes without any foreign intervention - but of course it will be blamed on Russia. The Russians will use cold to their advantage, so many key events will take place over the winter. Russia and China will publicly start a movement towards Nuremberg-style trials for major war criminals; initially it will be all rather hazy, implying just war criminals captured in Ukraine, but will gradually expand with each iteration of offers and offenses. The movement towards war crimes trials will tend to culture a blossoming of moral support and positive outlook amongst ordinary people in many Western countries fed up with Western impunity to accountability. Extensive efforts will be devoted to the investigation of crimes in Ukraine, which will be - selectively - well publicised (some investigations will be strategically kept quiet until later). Negotiations to bargain for release of any US/NATO war criminals captured in Ukraine will be stonewalled.
Second offensive will destroy US "anti-ballistic missile" launch sites in Romania and Bulgaria, with complete destruction of the sites in Romania, Bulgaria and Poland (Poland is probably under construction at the moment, I am not sure of the state of progress). At the same time key biowarfare labs in the vicinity of Russia and China will be neutralised - maybe using standoff weapons, if Russia has the means to do so without causing the release of dangerous biowarfare agents, otherwise using special forces. In any case special forces will be used for mopping up and the collection of evidence, if there is potentially any survivable evidence. Clearly Russia has for long regarded these labs as an existential threat, and has certainly devoted enormous resources to the development of means for neutralising them - this necessarily has to come at some stage. My guess is they have some special weapon that causes such extreme heat it will instantly destroy all samples of germ warfare in the labs. If not such standoff weapons, then special forces based, and any survivors will be taken prisoner for war crimes trials. Maybe some other key US foreign bases such as Diego Garcia will be "liberated" - and evidence of their past activities extensively investigated; many prisoners will be taken for war crimes investigation. The neutralisation of some key strategic US offshore military assets (other than potential war crimes sites) might be included at this stage. Maybe also the neutralisation of key US bases in Syria and Iraq, possibly with Iranian cooperation. US nuclear submarines? Maybe some covert neutralisation activities.
Third offer will include the handover of key Covid-19 criminals including Fauci, Gates, Drosten, CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna, other key Covid-19 patent holders, and a sprinkling of key politicians and bureaucrats. At this stage China will start to get more heavily involved in the process; this third offer may be a joint offer from Russia and China, possibly also Iran. This generous offer will include an offer for the handover to Russia and China for investigation and destruction of all Western biowarfare labs worldwide, including Fort Dettrick and Porton Down. The stick will be the threat of war crimes trials for the staff if they are neutralised by force. Russia and China might publicly release some key state secrets and key evidential documents concerning Western involvement in unnecessary increase in deaths and economic destruction from the Covid-19 operation, including evidence of critical Big Pharma activities.
By this point there will potentially be a large and rapidly accelerating groundswell of support from ordinary people in Western countries. This will be a rapidly swelling pressure on Western regimes, with increasingly frequent and increasingly large protests. Legal activities by Corona Ausschuss in Germany and a large network of related legal groupings around the world against different aspects of the Covid-19 operation will start to gain more and more successes in courts around the world (they have already won many many small but meaningful regional legal battles including verdicts against the reliability of PCR tests, restrictions on schools, vaccine mandates and others). More and more courts will swing in their favour, influenced by the groundswell of public pressure. State policies on Covid-19 will be forced to change in response to the pressure.
Third offensive ... ... ...
At what point do the US and Europe surrender? Continental Europe are cowards. They will give up quickly. The Sword of Damocles of Russia-based war crimes tribunals and potential trials for paedophilia and corruption will lead many key European politicians to try to get under Russian wings to protect them from the Global Elite blackmail on which the entirety of Empire depends. Some will try to bargain with Russia for personal protection in return for their loyalty. In any case Europe's real interests lie with Eurasia not North America, so they have huge potential incentives to switch sides. Critical will be (a) ever expanding Russian war crimes trials, with subtle hints of the potential threat of expansion to Covid-19 crimes trials, corruption trials, and paedophilia trials etc; and (b) an ever tightening clamp on the military potential and military plausibility of the Empire.
The core criminals of the US and the UK will be the last holdouts. They will get the worst offer from Putin before they have to accept. At some stage there will be mutiny in the US and UK militaries. There may be a military coup. ... ... ...
Just one perspective.
Posted by: BM | Dec 23 2021 16:46 utc | 87
Perimetr @84--
Given the way the UK--one of the initial fonts of Russophibia--has gone on with its many lies over the past 20+ years and very undiplomatic attitude, IMO Putin was correct in telling their propaganda rep where it could go. Putin Annual Press Conference transcript and Lavrov RT interview transcript.
The fact that the West continues with its lies and arrogance despite Russia's extraordinary diplomatic actions is infuriating, particularly Psaki's comments I posted yesterday and echoed by the troll "m" this morning. Now to read what Putin has said.
re: karlof1 | Dec 23 2021 16:58 utc | 88
I fully agree and I think this should have been said before now. But now that it has finally been said, it is still shocking to hear, because I have to believe that this will mean more than just putting nuclear-armed missiles in Kaliningrad (I would think they are already there anyway) and Belarus. I think Putin is ready to move against Ukraine, as well as NATO if it gets in the way at all.
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 23 2021 17:01 utc | 89
Apologies, it seems I misunderstood the context of the comment . . . “Go to Hell with your concerns, we will do whatever we see fit.”was Putin paraphrasing the Western government’s attitude towards Russia, not the Russian attitude towards the West.
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 23 2021 17:05 utc | 90
Perimetr @89&90--
Thanks for your reply! I just began reading the presser transcript with its first segment about the economy and covid response. Putin here revealed what IMO is his greatest concern about Russia's internal dynamics--its demographics:
"I have just spoken about an unfortunate decrease in life expectancy, an increase in mortality in our country [due to covid], and in this regard, one of the most important problems, one of the most important challenges that we face is getting more acute – I am referring to demographics. It is a challenge both from a humanitarian point of view and from the geopolitical perspective as well, I mean the country’s population – 146 million for such a vast territory is definitely not enough; economically too, we have a workforce shortage.
"As far as I know, the working age population is now just above 81 million. We must drastically increase this figure by 2024, by 2030. This is one of the factors of economic growth, let alone – I would like to emphasise this once again – the geopolitical and humanitarian components of this most important matter. [My Emphasis]
The above is one major reason Putin must avoid war as Russia has yet to recover from WW1, Civil War, WW2, and the 1990s Rape of Russia. Putin on several occasions over the past 3-4 years has come close to begging Russians to have more children, to the point where financial incentives were made. The unemployment rate is 4.3% which is considered full employment and real wages are rising. IMO, Russia would be happy to welcome all those trying to cross the Outlaw US Empire's Southern border as it has plenty of work and space for them. But the pandemic coupled with the geopolitical situation creates a negative future outlook that inhibits the expansion of families. So, we can say the demographic situation is one of the main drivers for the confrontation with the Outlaw US Empire.
I suspect nothing whatsoever will happen with Ukraine ...
If the US does not respond in an agreement-capable manner, Russia will deploy armaments that conclusively, publicly and irrefutably guarantee physical damage to the continental US. They will be deployments that cannot be faced down by the US, short of using its nuclear ICBMs, and they will be such a deployment that guarantees the destruction of the US before its missiles reach Russia. ...
Being Russia, it first lays the legal ground, satisfying the principles of international law. Then it will act.
Posted by: Grieved | Dec 23 2021 3:17 utc | 62
Remember the global psychological effects of US "shock and awe" in Iraq (I am not talking about the contemporanious moral outrage, just the "awe" effect)? The US - deep down - already knows the vast multigenerational technological military superiority of Russia, yet - in archetypical style they are unable to consciously register it and acknowledge it. Therefore they deny it and act as if that Russian military superiority does not exist. They are burying their heads in the sand, in other words. No "deployment" of any Russian armaments, alone, is capable of bringing the US to their senses. What Russia has already deployed can already guarantee total destruction of the continental USA - yet the USA is incapable of recognising it for what it is. Therefore the US needs a live demonstration in a dramatic form. Even the spectacular performances in Syria were not enough. They need Shock and Awe - at a level transcending anything ever seen before. Livestreamed from Ukraine.
Being Russia, it first lays the legal ground, satisfying the principles of international law. Then it will act.
Exactly. First the ultimatum, with extensive coverage and analysis, which establishes in black and white the Russian National Security concerns and their basis in the historical aggressive actions of US/NATO, coupled with comprehensive offers for negotiation and discussion, offer of legally binding treaties, offer of secure peace and mutual respect for all, and the threat of non-tolerance of stonewalling and the need for urgency and seriousness. Russia has methodically demined every square inch of legal ground, and guaranteed 100 times over that its military action will be comprehensively secured under international law. Every legal "i" has been dotted and every legal "t" has been crossed. Even the denial that it is an "ultimatum" is part of the dotting of "i"s and crossing of "t"s. The laying out of the legal ground has been exhaustively methodical.
Next stage - as inevitable as the splash after a stone is thrown into water - is action. In Ukraine. Shock and Awe. Livestreamed around the world. Blitz fast and glitzy like never seen before. And - unlike Iraq, Libya etc - followed by humanitarian order, justice, human rights, and war crimes trials. Rock solid adherence to international law throughout.
Not "shock and awe" for the sake of destruction and raw power through fear, but Shock and Awe combined with justice, order, and respect for human rights.
Posted by: BM | Dec 23 2021 17:36 utc | 92
MOSCOW, December 22. /TASS/. The People’s Militia of the Donetsk People’s Republic has evidence that a batch of botulinum toxin (a highly toxic substance causing paralysis) and its antidote has been delivered to Ukraine from the United States, the deputy chief of the People’s Militia Directorate, Eduard Basurin, said on the Rossiya-1 television channel in an interview on Wednesday.
"It is common knowledge that the United States has brought different types of weapons to Ukraine," he said adding that a batch of an antidote for botulinum toxin was delivered in October. Basurin recalled that botulinum toxin was a chemical warfare agent.
hmmm ....any chance this might serve to bring the OPCW western membership
into disrepute... payback for the Syrian chemical matters that OPCW manipulated?
Posted by: Jo | Dec 23 2021 17:38 utc | 93
One other note from the beginning of Putin's presser regarding immunity to covid. What we've seen is there's zero immunity to covid--no vaccine confers immunity, although they do mitigate the disease's affects. Here's the pertinent passage:
"What is the vaccination rate in Russia? As of today, or maybe yesterday, it was 59.4 precent. I had no doubt that this would be one of the main topics during today’s news conference, so I talked to Ms Popova and Ms Golikova. The figure of 59.4 percent is where we are in terms of achieving herd immunity in Russia. This includes both those who have recovered from the coronavirus infection, as well as those who have received the jab. Some 70 million people have received the first dose, and a little over 70 have had both.
"This is not enough. We need about 80 percent of our population to be immune to achieve herd immunity. I hope that next year, at least by the end of the first quarter or in the second quarter, we will have reached this level. Some countries are already talking about the need for 90–95 percent to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity."
As I've discussed, Covid will become a partner of flu and be around for a considerable amount of time. That's the reality people need to learn and adjust their mindset to.
Posted by: Jo | Dec 23 2021 17:38 utc | 93
Basurin recalled that botulinum toxin was a chemical warfare agent.
Maybe, but today botox is more known as a cosmetic product.
Posted by: hopehely | Dec 23 2021 18:16 utc | 95
@ tucenz | Dec 23 2021 8:05 utc | 74... nah... i didn't think of that! right now i am listening to some modern composer from altai republic instead!
Posted by: james | Dec 23 2021 18:23 utc | 96
As I've discussed, Covid will become a partner of flu and be around for a considerable amount of time. That's the reality people need to learn and adjust their mindset to.
Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 23 2021 17:58 utc | 94
Russia & COVID is interesting, they have been on as slow steady decline in cases since November, over 40K/dy down to 25K/dy now. No idea why.
I think we are heading the way you suggest. A new seasonal respiratory virus.
Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 23 2021 18:24 utc | 97
Report from Tass: US brings botulinum toxin to Ukraine — Donetsk Republic
note that this report ends with essemntially a confirmation of this situation by Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 23 2021 18:38 utc | 98
My appreciation to laodan@83 for his post. Don't know if I would have the courage to draw such long-reaching conclusions, but in the form of a "Christmas story" it makes for very interesting reading.
Likewise to BM@87 and @92, I believe you present an accurate picture of potential Russian operations in Ukraine. As it is, Ukraine has essentially been recognized as part of the Russian sphere of influence by the commitments or non-commitments that Western powers have made in the defense of its current regime. If the US is unable or unwilling to defang Kiev, then Russia most certainly will.
However, I doubt we will see Russian action against missile installations, particularly those on the territory of NATO member states. Unless such action can be done covertly and accompanied with mounting public pressure in those states to give sabotage a plausible hint of internal factors at work, the only scenarios in which these complexes could be comprehensively dismantled are, in my opinion, under the direction of the US or in open warfare with Russia. I would instead expect Russia to counter by establishing a comparable irritant in proximity to the US mainland that would be impossible for the Americans to ignore, something that would force them to re-evaluate the strategic cost of maintaining said missile defense systems in Eastern Europe.
Posted by: Skiffer | Dec 23 2021 20:35 utc | 99
Posted by: m | Dec 23 2021 10:15 utc | 1
seriously, you need to pay more attention...
Posted by: Tom in AZ | Dec 23 2021 21:20 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
It feels like this paper is a notice given after repeated failed attempts at getting a message through.
Posted by: Stéphane | Dec 22 2021 19:44 utc | 1