MoA - U.S. Intelligence Has Found ... Easy To Disprove Claims Of A Russian Attack On Ukraine

December 04, 2021

U.S. Intelligence Has Found ... Easy To Disprove Claims Of A Russian Attack On Ukraine

A few years back:

In his State of the Union message in January, President Bush approvingly cited the report. “The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa,” said Bush.
...
On Thursday, standing beside British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Bush said of Britain, “Not only our intelligence, but the intelligence of this great country made a clear and compelling case that Saddam Hussein was a threat to security and peace.”

Now:

As tensions mount between Washington and Moscow over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence has found the Kremlin is planning a multi-front offensive as soon as early next year involving up to 175,000 troops, according to U.S. officials and an intelligence document obtained by The Washington Post.
...
“The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s snap exercise near Ukraine’s borders,” said an administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information. “The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment.”
The unclassified U.S. intelligence document obtained by The Post, which includes satellite photos, shows Russian forces massing in four locations. Currently, 50 battlefield tactical groups are deployed, along with “newly arrived” tanks and artillery, according to the document.

I am convinced by now that the U.S., NATO and the Ukraine have planned to attack the rebel held grounds in eastern Ukraine in early February 2022. 'Western' propagandists and media will not report of the Ukrainian attack on its eastern rebels.

(The August 8 2008 attack on Russian peacekeepers in Georgia took place when Putin attended the opening of the Olympics in Beijing. Russia has confirmed that Putin will attend in the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing on February 4 2022.)

The Ukrainian attack will likely have only little success. But the rebels can not hold for long without significant reinforcement. The Ukrainian army attack will thus provoke Russia into intervening. That counter-intervention will then get reported as the 'long expected Russian attack on Ukraine'.

The current U.S. propaganda of an Russian attack on the Ukraine is pure bullshit designed to prepare the public for the above preplanned narrative.

When the Russian counter-attack takes place the Ukrainian army will get destroyed by a rainstorm of Russian missiles. But Russian forces will not invade the country. Russia will only hold, via its proxy forces, on to the rebel republics around Donetzk and Luhansk. Russia's aim is to federalize the Ukraine as laid out in the Minsk agreements with the east having a veto against any NATO membership of the country. That aim does not require an occupation of the Ukraine.

We know that the above 175,000 troops number is totally made up just as the numbers claimed by the Ukraine. As the Washington Post report describes it:

While Ukrainian assessments have said Russia has approximately 94,000 troops near the border, the U.S. map puts the number at 70,000 — but it predicts a buildup to as many as 175,000 and describes extensive movement of battalion tactical groups to and from the border “to obfuscate intentions and to create uncertainty.”
...
The Russian military moves come as Moscow has raised eyebrows in Washington with a sudden mobilization of reservists this year and a dramatic escalation of its rhetoric regarding Ukraine.
Russian officials have defended the reserve mobilization as a necessary measure to help modernize the Russian armed forces. But the administration official raised concerns about the “sudden and rapid program to establish a ready reserve of contract reservists,” which the official said is expected to add an additional 100,000 troops to the approximately 70,000 deployed now.

The somewhat murky BARS-2021 program to establish a combat army reserve (BARS) in Russia was only launched in the mid of this year:

We are talking about reservists who will conclude a contract with the Ministry of Defense, receive certain money for being in the reserve and regularly participate in military training and exercises.
Such reservists have been participating in military exercises since 2016, as an experiment.

The message from the Ministry of Defense on the increase in the number of reservists also refers to the exercises in the Kaliningrad region, to which they were transferred in early September.

The aim of building that reserve force is to eventually do away with compulsory conscription. It has nothing to do with a war in Ukraine. The 100,000 "ready reserve of contract reservists" do not exist today. There are currently only experimental units some of which took part in exercises in Kalinigrad. It will take years to stand up and train a 100,000 strong force of weekend warriors before it can be taken into any serious action.

The whole claim of a 175,000 strong Russian force by early next year is thus pure bullshit.

As is the claim of "100 battalion tactical groups". The Russian army has in total only 136 of those:

According to Defence Minister Shoigu, in every regiment and brigade, two battalions are formed by contractors, while one is formed by recruits, who are not involved in combat missions. Currently, there are 136 tactical battalion groups in the armed forces formed by contractors.

Russia is a county spanning 11 timezones. It is totally unfeasible for it to throw three quarters of its professional tactical units against the Ukraine as this would leave all other borders bare of protection.

The satellite pictures the report mentions are also not relevant. They simply show troops on their regular training grounds hundreds of kilometers away from the Ukraine. Troops train for war all the time. It is their job.

All together the claims made today are cheep propaganda not even intended to be taken seriously by any professional in the field.

"The British government has learned" was a lie. Saddam had not sought uranium from Africa. The "U.S. intelligence has found" claim is likewise a lie.

The lies told today are to build a narrative that can later be used to obfuscate and hide the real initiator of a preplanned war in the Ukraine.

That is not going to be Russia.

Posted by b on December 4, 2021 at 16:44 UTC | Permalink

Comments

One story is that in 1991 US Defense Secretary Cheney, during US build up after Iraq occupied Kuwait<, that satellite photos showed Iraq army build up on Saudi Arabian border. He then classified the photos. Mid 1990's old Soviet archives had Soviet satellite photos same days showing empty desert on Iraq Saudi border. 2001, one of first actions by Bush 43 was to extend period of classified documents.
Canadian military is in Ukraine training under Operation Unifier, about 250 on this NATO project. As well Canadian war ships, war planes & ground forces are in Baltic States on Operation Reassurance.
Dontcha love the names we give to projects for defending Canada...in Eastern Europe?

But, yeah, it's Russia that is the threat. Why don't the Russians stay home?

Posted by: dave constable | Dec 4 2021 17:14 utc | 1

I am convinced by now that the U.S., NATO and the Ukraine have planned to attack the rebel held grounds in eastern Ukraine in early February 2022.

It is clear that Ukraine is collapsing. A Russian “invasion” will be scapegoat used to blame for the eventual collapse.

When the Russian counter-attack takes place the Ukrainian army will get destroyed by a rainstorm of Russian missiles. But Russian forces will not invade the country. Russia will only hold, via its proxy forces, on to the rebel republics around Donetzk and Luhansk. Russia's aim is to federalize the Ukraine as laid out in the Minsk agreements with the east having a veto against any NATO membership of the country. That aim does not require an occupation of the Ukraine.

Putin made it clear that when Kiev launches an attack against the East the Russian response will be so severe that Ukraine will cease to exist as a state. It will take the parts that it wants and leave the rest to rot.

All together the claims made today are cheep propaganda not even intended to be taken seriously by any professional in the field.

That’s because the propaganda is directed at the domestic audience. As Crooke noted:

Russia and China therefore face a reality in which European and U.S. élites are heading in the opposite direction to epistemological purity and well-founded argument. That is to suggest, the new ‘normal’ is about generating a lot of contradictory realities, not just contradictory ideologies, but actual mutually-exclusive ‘realities’, which could not possibly simultaneously exist … and which are intended to bemuse adversaries – and nudge them off-balance.

This is a highly risky game, for it forces a resistance stance on those targeted states – whether they seek it, or not. It underlines that politics is no more about considered strategy: It is about being willing for the U.S. to lose strategically (even militarily), in order to win politically. Which is to say gaining an ephemeral win of having prompted an favourable unconscious psychic response amongst American voters.

Now or Never: The Great ‘Transition’ Must Be Imposed

Posted by: Down South | Dec 4 2021 17:18 utc | 2

Well back in 2017 Putin proposed UN peacekeepers for Ukraine...Merkel seemed to agree....is he waiting for ukrops to start something and with that or there is sufficient concern at the current situation ie lack of interest and will by EU and arms supplies by USA and Uk to call for peacekeepers now? What level of threshold is required that would be accepted by UN to enable that?

Posted by: Jo | Dec 4 2021 17:22 utc | 3

Andrei Martyanov laid out the consequences for the US should Kiev invade the East

But now to the most important conclusion: even if the US does not engage militarily, a suicidal scenario as I pointed out, all tactical gains from semi or outright open Russia's involvement in settling 404 issue bears a catastrophic strategic reputational loss for the US, which will demonstrate a complete lack of power and influence of a decrepit empire. We may only speculate on the ramifications of such an outcome, not to mention the fact that at this stage Russia CAN afford, if pressed by circumstances, to finish off this artificial construct of 404 and sever its ties to the West, EU cannot.

But What If...Or, Here We Go Again.

Posted by: Down South | Dec 4 2021 17:24 utc | 4

The problem is, despite past agreements NOT to expand NATO eastward, the empire continues to do so.

Posted by: vetinLA | Dec 4 2021 17:28 utc | 5

It certainly looks like cover for the Ukronazi state to go military in Donbas, but it may be a stunt to spice up Bidong's meeting with President Putin. It smells so much like last spring, it is Deja Vu.

Posted by: nook | Dec 4 2021 17:32 utc | 6

@ # 5 proof;

https://mltoday.com/new-document-us-promised-not-to-expand-nato-eastward/

Posted by: vetinLA | Dec 4 2021 17:32 utc | 7

That's thee most speculative MoA article I have read so far.

Posted by: m | Dec 4 2021 17:35 utc | 8

That says more about ur (lack of) knowledge then it does about b tbh.

Posted by: Per/Norway | Dec 4 2021 17:37 utc | 9

Posted by: m | Dec 4 2021 17:35 utc | 8

Really? It is much less speculative than most posts you have made in the past...in support of the fraudulent Western narrative.

Posted by: nook | Dec 4 2021 17:40 utc | 10

As others have noted, empire is not agreement capable nor is it multi-polar capable

We are in the process of seeing if empire can be made to operate in a multi-polar world and so far the response from empire seems to be NO

So the shit show continues until it doesn't and I am no longer optimistic that it will end well.

Can the power of empire behind the curtain be neutered? Hell, we aren't even talking about changing the Reserve Currency status yet. That is the Red Line for empire and there are still proxy wars to be fought first....sigh

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 4 2021 17:44 utc | 11

ANY statement that contains the words 'the US/UK Government', 'US/UK Intelligence' needs to be treated with utmost sceptism. These bodies are made up almost exclusively of charlatans, liars, incompetents and the corrupt. They have no validity.

Posted by: Henry Smith | Dec 4 2021 18:02 utc | 12

Every few months we get this flurry of headlines about 20000, 40000, 80000 and now 175000 Russian troops massing on/near the border. Have you ever seen the headlines about them un-massing? Are these just the same troops massing very slowly?

Posted by: Keith McClary | Dec 4 2021 18:02 utc | 13

thanks b for the breakdown, analogies and insights... well said... the west is playing with fire and they have to be careful they don't get burnt in the process..

Posted by: james | Dec 4 2021 18:07 utc | 14

How many of the "military analysts" and MSM can actually point to the Russian Ukrainian border and the actual position of these Russian formations?
These are the guys who went into Iraq on the greatest heaps of lying bullshite masquerading as credible intelligence.
It's beyond grotesque watching that husk of a man mouthing off about not accepting Russian red lines.

Posted by: JPC | Dec 4 2021 18:21 utc | 15

So now we have a date, 4th Feb. 2022. Thanks b. Seems a very good estimation. (Thinks for self, remember to stock up on explosive popcorn and gas for heating it)
***

I just wonder whether Zelensky will last until then? Next up he is thinking of attacking the Media Baron, Russian speaker and political rival, Rinat Akhmetov. Supposedly planning civil "crime" charges against him and the dismantelment of his press base. Zelensky is also increasingly challenged by others in Ukraine, who are NOT members of the far right.
*

By February the mercenaries and "volunteers" on the Ukie side sitting in wet ditches, will have got very cold feet and wet "arrieres". Perhaps the one thing that might advance this scenario is if the shelling of the Donbass towns with 155mm cannon increases, or the Uke start using other methods (Drones) to heat up the conflict.

Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 4 2021 18:22 utc | 16

This tells me that the empire plans to cross Russia's "red line" in January of 2022. I hope the Russians refuse to pull their punches this time and counter that move decisively. In particular they should be sure to target US and NATO units and "advisors" that will be directing the ukrop attack on Donbass. The empire cares not the least about ukropian "cyborgs", but Special Forces and CIA spooks getting snuffed will get their attention.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 4 2021 18:26 utc | 17

my @16

A better description of Zelenskys newest scheme to become an all powerful dictator.....
eliminate the opposition.

"Ukrainian telegram channels report @ZelenskyyUa's office is drawing plan of full blown warfare against oligarch Rinat Akhmetov with sackings of sympathizers, cutting him off state tenders & opening criminal cases & in the end dismantling Akhmetov's media empire"

Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 4 2021 18:27 utc | 18

All the Strategery aside, unless one factors in the irrational insanity of the world's elites, then one can't properly analyze the situation. To use logical, common sense reasoning to predict the behavior of drama-addicted, narcissist million and billionaires is a recipe for wrong assumptions.

WWIII is inevitable.

Posted by: gottlieb | Dec 4 2021 18:43 utc | 19

b wrote:

I am convinced by now that the U.S., NATO and the Ukraine have planned to attack the rebel held grounds in eastern Ukraine in early February 2022. 'Western' propagandists and media will not report of the Ukrainian attack on its eastern rebels.
...

The Ukrainian army attack will thus provoke Russia into intervening. That counter-intervention will then get reported as the 'long expected Russian attack on Ukraine'.

The current U.S. propaganda of an Russian attack on the Ukraine is pure bullshit designed to prepare the public for the above preplanned narrative.

We still do not know who actually started the Korean War in 1950. No doubt both sides were fully prepared for war. The Western narrative is that North Korea started it with an invasion of US occupation zone in the south. But on the first day of fighting the Western reporting was different. Supposedly South Korean forces had advanced into North Korea. This may have been moral-boosting propaganda, but who knows.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 4 2021 18:52 utc | 20

Ukraine is going to start a war that it knows it's going to lose. The purpose of this apparently counterproductive move is to portray itself as an innocent victim of Russian imperialism. It knows that it has lost Donbass anyway and is not going to get it back, so why not do something that makes that loss look like a Russian invasion? Of course, the western media will present this as an unprovoked annexation, just like it did with Crimea after the coup in Kiev in 2014.

Posted by: Brendan | Dec 4 2021 19:06 utc | 21

Russia must increase its communication to the world on English to counter the lies and fabulation of the US media. When a false rumor spreads well, it is very difficult to counter it.
Russia should expand the use the social media to counter the anglo MSM who excels in spreading false stories based on unverifiable sources. The disinformation is now the major tool that hypocritical western power are using in the new war. The other are the sanctions in which the USA excels. Diplomacy is dying.. preparation of the public opinion for wars 21 century is heavily dependent on global communication dominated by internet and by the television. İn the west the USA has the monopoly and abuse it. İt is time this changes..

Posted by: Virgile | Dec 4 2021 19:16 utc | 22

So 4th Feb! It’s in the diary.

A poster here not long ago wrote that Ukrainian power-stations are running out of coal, Kazakh supplies have been interrupted and Donbas coal of course not available. It certainly sounded plausible - that the pressure on Kiev comes from the fact that they are staring at looming disaster in the form of no heating, in mid-winter. Can anyone here confirm, deny or elaborate on this?

Posted by: Montreal | Dec 4 2021 19:18 utc | 23

Petri Krohn @ 21:

It seems very likely that the Ukrainian army or (even more likely) a self-styled battalion of crazed Bandera-worshipping Nazi fanatics will make the first move of shelling major buildings in the centre of Donetsk. (There have been some reports that shelling has already started in NW Donetsk.) Such provocation will be ignored by Western media but any reaction by Donbass fighters to the shelling will be reported as evidence of Russian military infiltration / invasion. I am sure Bellingcat will be ready to claim it has satellite evidence of that invasion, doctored of course by the CIA / SBU in Kiev and handed over to Higgins mob.

Stepan Bandera's birthday coincides with New Year (January 1) so New Year would probably be when the acolyte battalion starts its attack. They're hardly going to wait for the Beijing Olympics' Opening Ceremony. (By then, there might not be much electricity left in Ukraine so people can watch TV or watch the Olympics on their computers ... because it is being subjected to periodic blackouts as a result of Kiev's past years of idiot sparring with Gazprom over natural gas supply and pricing, and of Kiev's failure to invest in and maintain the domestic gas network infrastructure.)

One thing for sure, when the combined US-led NATO / Ukrainian war on the Donbass gets underway, the Ukrainians will be the foot soldiers bearing the brunt of the violence, injuries, death and suffering. If NATO has any boots on the ground there, they will be giving orders - and Ukrainians will be giving up their lives obeying them. Pretty likely NATO videogame strategy will be inflexible and far removed from the reality at the war front. When the Ukrainians want reinforcements, all they'll get is either platitudes from Washington and Brussels ... or ISIS thug fanatics from Idlib in NW Syria, courtesy of Turkey.

Posted by: Jen | Dec 4 2021 19:21 utc | 24

RE: Posted by b on December 4, 2021 at 16:44 UTC | Permalink

“All together the claims made today are cheep propaganda not even intended to be taken seriously by any professional in the field. “

All the world is a stage for pantomimes where mostly spectators are in attendance.

So the set up is creating tension based on intents which were never intended to allow deflations of tensions on the basis that the “intents” were frustrated by others.

Posted by: MagdaTam | Dec 4 2021 19:33 utc | 25

ZH has a posting up about Norway trying to back down the beligerance with a quote from it below

"
One of NATO's founding members is urgently trying to walk back tensions and lower the potential for confrontation with Russia at a moment the accusatory rhetoric surrounding Ukraine continues putting Russia-Europe relations on edge. Norway's foreign minister Anniken Huitfeld has announced that the Scandinavian country wants American, British, and other NATO aircraft and vessels to keep their distance from Russia's border.

"It is important for Norway to be militarily present in our immediate surroundings. But very close to the Russian border, we believe that we do it best ourselves, with Norwegian planes and Norwegian frigates. It is fundamental for us," Anniken Huitfeldt told the newspaper Verdens Gang. Her words were subsequently translated and presented in Russian media sources.
"

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 4 2021 19:37 utc | 26

I'm not as sure as b is that the Ukrainian attack will be timed to coincide with the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February 2022, just like the Georgian one during the 2008 Beijing Olympics, not to mention the 2014 Ukrainian coup during the Sochi Winter Olympics in 2014.

This time round, it would be no surprise at all to the Kremlin. The western media might be presenting the current tensions as a buildup of Russian troops, but at least one Russian media outlet has been reporting the fears of senior Russian politicians of a buildup to war by Ukraine against Donbas. Here are some just from the past week:
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/73259/
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/73270/
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/73284/
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/73292/

Posted by: Brendan | Dec 4 2021 19:38 utc | 27

RE: Posted by: Down South | Dec 4 2021 17:18 utc | 2

“It is clear that Ukraine is collapsing. A Russian “invasion” will be scapegoat used to blame for the eventual collapse. “

At pantomimes the spectators are often encouraged to shout out - “He's behind you”.

“When the Russian counter-attack takes place the Ukrainian army will get destroyed by a rainstorm of Russian missiles. “

If the pantomime's plot is thin, the spectators are often encouraged to shout out - “He's behind you -more than once.

The whole world is a stage, so why should performances be held in Ukraine ?

Posted by: MagdaTam | Dec 4 2021 19:52 utc | 28

Whether there will be a provocation in Ukraine as predicted I do not know, it is clearly one possibility. But as others have mentioned, it is just too easy to predict. So I guess the Empire will offer this scenario as a distraction away from something else they are planning.

For sure there will be sabotage in some form against the Olympics in Beijing.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 4 2021 19:57 utc | 29

You know things are getting seriously comic when Erdogan offers to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky.

Russia is not a signatory to the Minsk accords. So Putin will never allow himself to become a part of it and have the responsibility for the situation be thrust upon him. Which is what would happen if there was a Putin-Zelensky meeting, with Z "making demands" (then dutifully reported word for word in the West's MSM). In spite of "Putin should do this or that", it is up to Zelensky to do something first (According to the accord), by talking WITH the Donbass.
**

This stand-off is another "red line". Putin's blank refusal to even speak with Z is going to be final. It is also cheaper, as Ukraine is a failed state that someone is going to have to pay for. Probably the Europeans. The EU knows it as well, which is why they have gone quiet, hoping nobody notices them.

Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 4 2021 20:01 utc | 30

Jen #24 - “the Ukrainians will be the foot soldiers bearing the brunt of the violence, injuries, death and suffering…”

Thinking of that, here is a recent very slick piece of image-making - an expensive professional product for sure.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1466902892858724357

Posted by: jayc | Dec 4 2021 20:05 utc | 31

"All together the claims made today are cheep propaganda..."

"Cheep" as in coming from chickens. Good one, B.

Posted by: lindaj | Dec 4 2021 20:50 utc | 32

I'm wondering what the people supposedly in charge in Ukraine are smoking?
Russia has spent a good part of the last 70 years preparing to prevail in a war with the West, if necessary. And Ukraine wants to provoke Russian ire to please some Christian Colonial psychopaths with delusions of grandeur?

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 4 2021 20:51 utc | 33

It seems to me that the big picture is the big 'C' - China. Since the US realised that China will not open its markets to US economic (and political) domination, it has been expanding its other options. But what can it do? The march of time is currently in China's favour.
A direct military attack on China is potentially suicidal at present, but if the US can sufficiently isolate China from expansion it can control it. So the US can:
Invent reasons to demonise China to justify sanctions and tariffs.
Diplomatically and economically try to isolate China by pressure on other countries.
Use its military advantage to limit China's access to resources by covert intervention (and coups) in Africa and elsewhere.
Divide China from Russia (overwhelmingly its major strategic ally) by destabilising Putin and stimulating crisis in Russia.
Russia has nothing to gain from a war with Ukraine. NATO would not want to formally accept Ukraine as a member, as it is an unstable liability. But using Ukraine as proxy war to isolate Russia and hurt it is desirable. The aim is to either have Putin see the light and go cold on China, or be removed by domestic unrest.

Posted by: Pete Jones | Dec 4 2021 21:05 utc | 34

@ Pete Jones | Dec 4 2021 21:05 utc | 34 who wrote
"
The aim is to either have Putin see the light and go cold on China, or be removed by domestic unrest.
"

I don't think you will find many at this bar that believe that anything will turn Putin against China and where is this domestic unrest you say exists and will oust Putin?....lol

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 4 2021 21:20 utc | 35

That's b at his best, dissecting away the fluff pieces of our beloved MSM. Although I must say, I almost feel sorry for b, I mean where's the intellectual challenge ? US propaganda nowadays is so mediocre. I have the distinct impression that a few years ago propaganda stories were way better prepared, with credible backstories and satellite pics. At least that's what I remember of the run-up to the Iraq war in 2003, the stories had sometimes a distinct touch of veracity that made me doubt myself.

Now it's really low-quality, they're not trying anymore. Maybe it's because they don't need to, the intellectual level of the average media consumer has fallen accordingly..

Posted by: Micron | Dec 4 2021 21:40 utc | 36

For the last 3 years I've heard nothing from the US establishment regarding the Russian-Chinese relationship; except constant declarations that China is the real threat to Russia and Russia must return to "normal relations" with the West or become a Chinese vassal state (looking at you Michael McFaul and the Atlantic Council). In the past year, those proclamations have become more hysterical and high pitched, as if it is just dawning on the US Think Tank industry (which are funded with hundreds of millions of dollars on an annual basis) have missed a seismic change in international relations

Posted by: Kadath | Dec 4 2021 21:46 utc | 37

You need economic weight and leverage for sanctions to have any effect. While the US economically outweighs Iran, it has very little economic leverage to apply against Iran. The US has already shot its "maximum pressure" wad against Iran. What more can the US do against Iran with sanctions?

Likewise the US economically outweighs Russia, but for years now Russia has been positioning themselves so that the empire has little economic leverage available to be able to use that weight advantage. While the US might force financial transactions related to Russian entities off SWIFT, that wont stop Russia's international trade. Instead it will just force the development of alternatives to SWIFT. That would amount to a short term disruption for Russia but a long term loss for the empire.

The options are even more stark where China is concerned. The US doesn't economically outweigh China at all, and all of its economic leverage is predicated upon being able to overwhelm its adversaries through sheer economic mass. The US doesn't do economic judo but only steamrolls its adversaries. That cannot work anymore against China, as the loss by the US in its "trade war" against China shows. Really, at this point the US sanctioning China would be like a child "sanctioning" its parents by not eating its vegetables at dinner time.

What's more, this sanctions dynamic itself is in decline as the US economy further declines in global relative terms. The US needs Russia and China more than either of them needs the US. Basically, US sanctions are nearing the end of their utility, and really only have any use left against smaller countries that have made the mistake of tying their economies too closely to America's... Venezuela, for instance. If the US tries to do a "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign against Russia (it is simply an economic impossibility to do against China) then that will be the swan song for American sanctioning.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 4 2021 21:47 utc | 38

U.S. officials have called U.S. support for Ukraine “rock solid” and the head of Ukraine's presidential office Andriy Yermak on Friday said he received assurances of "ironclad support" in a call with U.S. . . .So whoopee, rocks & iron, the US is acting: A Defense Department team is on the ground in Ukraine assessing what the country needs to protect itself from air, naval, electronic, and cyber warfare. . .here

Stoltenberg called the Russian build-up "unexplained and unjustified," and the NATO nations want the Russians to stop the provocations. "If they do the opposite, and actually decide to once again use force against Ukraine, then we have made it clear … during the NATO Foreign Minister meeting in Latvia today that Russia will then have to pay a high price; there will be serious consequences for Russia," he said. "And that's a clear message from NATO."
Could it be deployment of the NATO Allied Rapid Reaction Corps in Gloucester, UK? "Our mission . .HQ ARRC is to be prepared to deploy: As a Corps HQ, As a Land Component HQ, As a Theatre-level Joint Task Force HQ. In order to meet NATO, EU, national or multi-national requirements." . .here
Oh boy. That rapid reaction HQ could really do some damage I betcha. And the recent news is that the UK had one battalion combat ready, which is probably more than Germany has. We can rely on France?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 4 2021 21:48 utc | 39

@ Pete Jones@34 is right: the object is to prevent the integration of Eurasia.
That is why the Empire has to keep Russia behind a cordon sanitaire. If that Iron Curtain should break down then Eurasia, from Siberia to Ireland, is inevitable. Already, as 'supply chain' breakdowns lead to basic questions about the, largely maritime, imperial trade routes the advantages which internal eurasian railway transport (to make no mention of the northern east passage brought about by climate changes) brings.
And that is Uncle Sam's nightmare: a world no longer, for the first time since the C15th, ruled from the sea.
It is beginning to become obvious to the point of being undeniable, even to historians, that the basis of the long cold war (and the succession of very hot wars) against the Soviet Union had nothing to do with "communism" (though that was an enormous bonus to use in domestic politics) and everything to do with the desperate necessity of preventing Eurasia from rising again- except, of course, the permissible Nazi vision of an eastern empire ruled from north west Europe.
The current provocations around the Ukraine and White Russia are designed, firstly to prevent the dreaded outbreak of peace, which would spell an end to the imperial oligarchies and secondly to bankrupt economies such as Russia's by privileging 'defense' over social expenditure- that is where 'domestic unrest' enters into the calculations.
In the nuclear age however such calculations are redundant- in the final analysis MAD is cheaper than mass mobilisations and vast defense budgets. That is the good news. The bad news is that the odds are that, either through stupidity or accident, nuclear war could bring the whole business, from empire to human life, to an end.
That is the game that the idiots running the US, its satellites, their media and their academies, are playing with a human race that still has not discovered how to think for itself.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2021 21:51 utc | 40

If events unfold as articulated in this article I hope to God Russia will deliver a strong enough destructive response to the Ukraine that no other puppet regime will again dare to take orders from the fascist colonialists.

Posted by: Ali | Dec 4 2021 21:56 utc | 41

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 4 2021 21:20 utc | 35

"I don't think you will find many at this bar that believe that anything will turn Putin against China and where is this domestic unrest you say exists and will oust Putin?....lol"

You misquote me! I didn't say large scale opposition exists at the moment, though pro-US, anti-Putin mavericks get a lot of airtime on western media. But if opening Nordstream2 becomes politically unacceptable, oligachs bank accounts and yachts are sanctioned, and other measures make the Russian economy scream (takes me back to the heady days of 1972), Putin may decide his short term survival is more important than long term considerations. This may lead to a change of course, or some of his backers may desert him and seek an alternative. Is this likely? Actually i think not, because links to China are probably extensive enough to offset it. But I sure think it is part of the US strategy.

Posted by: Pete Jones | Dec 4 2021 22:02 utc | 42

Jayc @ 31:

Thanks, I watched the TV advertisement. One of the tweets wanted to know if it was a recruitment ad or just PR. The replies were just as confused. The discussion was not aware that Ukraine has a compulsory draft. The TV ad serves as a "rally round the boys (and girls)" push to the public.

Hoarsewhisperer @ 33:

In case you may not have noticed, the Ukrainian President was a former stand-up comedian and the people in charge are the CIA who share an office building with the SBU (Ukrainian "intel") in Kiev. These things are easy to overlook!

Micron @ 36:

The propagandists apply neoliberal concepts even to their own budgets for hiring PR hacks to produce propaganda. When you're only prepared to pay peanuts ... peanuts are all you get.

Posted by: Jen | Dec 4 2021 22:06 utc | 43

Along the line of this thread I read a column on a Hong Kong newspaper that may interest some barflies here at MOA. Since it is in Chinese I translated the text and post it here. Sorry to b for posting a lengthy piece.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"The core of Europe's crisis is Ukraine. Root cause of the issue is America's wish to contain Russia. Not only did America instigated color revolution to overturn Ukraine's elected government, more importantly was the promise to admit Ukraine into EU and NATO. America and EU are openly challenging Russia, how can Russia not be alarmed? Reclamation of Crimea and splitting the Russian majority industrial eastern region from Ukraine was Russia's obvious choice. Without the EU/American threat there would have been no Ukraine crisis.

Secondary crisis in Europe is the Balkan. It resulted from the EU/America destruction of the Yugoslavia federation. After Yugoslavia was shattered into multiple nation states, the west focused on strangling the remnant of Serbia through direct military means to further split Serbia, on grounds of ethnic and religious conflicts. The new entity that was split out, Kosovo, used ethnic religion as the basis of nation building against Serbians in their region, confronting Yugoslavia's existing structure of multi-ethnic-multi religious governance. After shattering Yugoslavia, not only did the west not help the newly established nations to develop, nor to mitigate ethnic/religious hatred as their excuse against Yugoslavia to start with, they turned around and used ethnic/religious oppression as the basis to attack Serbia. They claimed to merge former Yugoslavian nations into EU to enjoy prosperity. They absorbed Albania, Montenegro, and Macedonia as members of NATO, while corralling Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece to form an outer encirclement, while splitting Kosovo from inside of Serbia with heavy military garrison, and directly governing Bosnia under the UN namestake.

In Kosovo America built the largest European military base. Bosnia was establised in 1995 under UN resolution, as a means to stop the fighting at the time, with no consideration given to how to develop it nor to promote racial harmony. The UN governance was also passive such that since 1995 development in the region actually stopped while ethnic conflicts emerged again. Bosnia has splitted in two, part of it became a Serbian Republic. It recently clamour for independence, but is suppressed by EU/America, claiming that doing so is upsetting the multi-ethnic system of Bosnia, in direct contradiction of the rationale that they used to split Yugoslavia to start with. The Balkan crisis stems from the EU/America attack on Yugoslavia in the 1990's, and the instigation of ethnic/religious hatred among former Yugoslavian entities. It is understandable that Serbians are repulsed.

In recent years the Balkan is submerged in poverty instead of development under EU/America patronage. That is why China and Russia are gaining influence. If there is change in Ukraine, Serbians are likely to resist further western interference, the recent election results in Montenegro is an indication. The Right Wing EU/American are clamouring for military force against what they call Serbia threat, but only verbally yet. Change in Ukraine will likely turn EU/America into more defensive posture, especially EU. This may lead to a split between EU and USA, turning the broader European picture back to prior to WWII. "

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is an oriental view, quite different from the western one :-)

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Dec 4 2021 22:08 utc | 44

It is time for some real patriotic American intelligence officials to publicly call out the bogus and mutually destructive US policy vis a vie Russia.

I am reminded of the uproar when Andrew Wilkie resigned in protest from the nation's top intelligence body the ONA, responsible for intelligence to the PM, over the Iraq war WMD lies. It is obvious that the real reason was Iraq stood in the way of the Greater Israel Yinon Plan and giving money to 'terrorists' was code for supporting Palestinians in their legitimate struggle for self determination in their own country.
https://www.abc.net.au/am/content/s804540.htm
Wilkie went on to become the independent federal MP for Clark in Tasmania. Good luck to him in the coming election. The duopoly is working against him.

Watch the unsuspecting USUKA military et al being dragged into another atavistic tribal conflict hatched in the back rooms of New York, Tel Aviv and Washington. Enough.

Posted by: Paul | Dec 4 2021 22:09 utc | 45

El mejor lugar para atacar a la OTAN sería los altos del Golán. Bandera blanca en 24 horas.

Posted by: Frasco | Dec 4 2021 22:16 utc | 46

@43 Come on you guys. Those people in the video were all nice patriotic young Ukrainians, teachers, students etc.. Not a Nazi armband among them. Definitely not the type to go on torchlight parades....

https://youtu.be/tHhGEiwCHZE

Posted by: dh | Dec 4 2021 22:18 utc | 47

I noted a rather clever new initiative by Russia the other day:
Posted by: powerandpeople | Dec 1 2021 21:58 utc | 41 (comment link doesn't work)

See this article for details:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67250

It seems we are at a turning point between US and Russia. The media blitz seems to be kabuki designed to 'allow' USA to 'think the unthinkable', as the Japanese Emperor so delicately framed Japans defeat.

Mr. Blinken and Mr. Lavrov had had a long talk, Blinken claims to prefer diplomacy; Russia has bluntly warned the US to take its security concerns very seriously.

High noon. Who will Blink en this high states game first?

Russia issues an ultimatum: peace in our time via a binding agreement - announced for the first time on December 1 - "not to allow NATO’s further eastward expansion or the deployment of new weapons systems on Russia’s western borders, which would threaten the Russian Federation’s security."

https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4982221#sel=5:315:m,5:315:m

Notice the word 'demand', a word which is not used lightly by professional diplomats.

However, Russia faces a contradiction: it upholds the principal that all countries (including Iran) have the right to field whatever military assets they want in their self defense. This must include countries on Russias border. Obviously, China has nuclear weapons by Russia's border. Russia makes no fuss.

So why not Ukraine, also on Russia's border? What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.

The answer is that only 'self defense', as different from aggression, is legitimate. The difference between the two is held in place only by a politicians word.

The counterweighing principal is the security of one country cannot be achieved at the expense of another country.

Therefore mutually assured security is needed.

So a treaty is needed to bind US/EU/UK/Ukraine hands.

A binding treaty, not a reversible agreement.

US elections coming up, Biden needs to show some success.

If he is smart, he will grab this with both hands.

If he is a fool, he will continue goading hotheads in the disintigrating Ukraine - altho recently he pulled back on supplying missiles, a positive signal.

If he takes the path of stupidity & Ukraine ends up like Georgia, then he and the EU will apply Iran-style 'maximum pressure' third party sanctions, maybe including restricting access to US dollars via bank transfer to pay for oil (Russian oil exports are transacted in the USD).

Nothing good will come of this - especially for EU businesses.

US booming liquid natural gas exports will boom even further.

EU dupes.

And in any event, Russias hypersonic weapons sitting 4 minutes from Moscow assure Russias security.

Because, as Pres. Putin previously observed ' what use is the world without Russia?'

Posted by: powerandpeople | Dec 4 2021 22:21 utc | 48

The integrity iniative mockingbirds are firing their opening barrages. Here is an arch representative of the Observer Guardian in the U.K. right now being a hypocrite about press freedom but only if you are anti Russian, Russian.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/nobel-winner-we-journalists-are-the-defence-line-between-dictatorship-and-war

“Navalny himself sent his congratulations from prison, noting “what a high price those who refuse to serve the authorities have to pay”. “

Using the memory of German
Carl von Ossietzky

Ignoring Assange, Craig, independent journalists of today political prisoners in the U.K.

She ignores many other journalists and infact newspapers which also stood up against Hitler in Germany and were also destroyed as I pointed out months ago about the Munich Post.

But than again Carol isn’t worried about these standing up against the Crown state and the Nato and their coalition of the willing and her campaign of moving us towards hot conflict in the Ukraine right here.

Wake up folks the Observer/Guardian isn’t a peace prophet but a very naughty hypocrite.

(Ps it seems I am feeling feeling much restored now :-)

Posted by: D.G. | Dec 4 2021 22:28 utc | 49

@ Pete Jones | Dec 4 2021 22:02 utc | 42 and bevin at 40

Pete wrote at the end of his latest
"
Is this likely? Actually i think not, because links to China are probably extensive enough to offset it. But I sure think it is part of the US strategy.
"

Lots of delusional dreams are part of US strategy and we are lucky that most of them never see the light of day. If NS2 is not opened it will not hurt Putin, nor Russia but the same can't be said for other parts of Eurasia caught up in this Great Game of our world elites against the rest of us....can those arm chair elite force Eurasia to sacrifice themselves for the God of Mammon religion?.....I think we are seeing a world wide rising against the forces of elite control and while the brainwashing and propaganda runs deep, here we are writing about potential I have not seen before in my 73 years of living in an Occupied Palestine mired world.

I may not be optimistic about overthrow of our anti-humanistic Western World but it will not stop me from pushing for it to occur. YMMV

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 4 2021 22:33 utc | 50

I believe that without the United States (speaking of the United States, I mean the government and the strata serving it - the media, experts, agencies, etc.), we would be pretty boring. After all, who else can regularly put on free circus shows to entertain people? USA only. True, they have Ukrainian competitors, but those are rather amateurs, inexperienced kids.

Well, here's another American spectacle presented to the amusement of the audience. I declare with full responsibility that this is a very funny spectacle, albeit rather banal - the idea was clear even before the beginning of the first act. The production is titled "Russian invasion of Ukraine in winter 2022". Yes, it is the "Russian invasion"... which seems to have already taken place back in 2014, causing the Ukrainian eight-year "war with Russia". But, never mind) Why bother with ridiculous clarifications.

Let's focus on the new circus show. A skilful (he sincerely considers himself to be such) director decides to secure the hero of the production (this is the USA) a "geopolitical victory". The idea is uncomplicated, quite according to the canons of primitive propaganda: you just need to take and accuse the "guilty" (this is Russia) of an action that in any circumstances is natural and logical as a response to external negative influences.

Let's say you are at odds with your neighbor. You can't stand him. Want to annoy him. In the end, you decide to break into his property and paint the walls of his house. The paint cans are bought, the date is set. But a couple of days before the attack, you bypass other neighbors and complain to everyone that "you know for sure" that this unpleasant guy will try to beat you the other day. Quite pretentiously, but still complain about his quarrelsomeness, hostility, arrogance, aggressiveness. Finally, on the day you have conceived, you burst into your neighbor's plot, start pouring paint on his house, break down his fence. The dumbfounded poor fellow runs out of the house and, seeing what you are doing with his dwelling and on his land, begins to scream and drive you away, tries to push you over the fence, threatens to call the police. But you loudly yell to the assembled onlookers - "Look, I told you - he rushes at me!", "Help! He attacks me!" etc.

If the "Russian attack on Ukraine" is so confidently scheduled for January 2022, then it is almost guaranteed that the United States (by the hands of its Ukrainian degenerate lackeys) will attack Donbass in January 2022 (or a little earlier), to which Russia will be forced to give an answer, thereby becoming "guilty ". Nothing new, just old American practice - blame the enemy for what you are going to do yourself.

To be honest, a pitiful sight. However, the director finds it convincing, and the circus show "Russian invasion of Ukraine in winter 2022" is accompanied by colorful advertising materials - invented, circulating in the media and very funny in their absurdity "maps of Russia's attack on Ukraine". The viewer must feel the intensity of passions, must believe in what is happening. Beautiful pictures are useful in this. Goebbels would have applauded.

However, the director would have been completely useless if he had not allowed a second interpretation of his spectacle. Yes, dear viewer, the action can have an alternative ending. If Russia, which has no idea about its "plans to attack Ukraine" (which it seems to have "attacked" back in 2014) and looking at all these strange messages as news from an insane asylum, will not do anything (will not "attack") due to the absence of Ukrainian aggression against Donbass, then the brave United States with pomp and confidence will be able to declare that it was their "suggestions" and "tough warnings" that frightened Putin and he had difficulty, but was forced to abandon the idea of "attacking Ukraine." You know, he really wanted to, but changed his mind, only being afraid of the "warning" of the peaceful and responsible politician Joe Biden.

Isn't it very nice - you yourself come up with the situation, you yourself appoint the "guilty", you yourself speak on behalf of the "guilty", attributing to him the "motives" and "plans" invented by you yourself (and "legalizing" them through your obedient media), and then you yourself destroy/disrupt these "plans" invented by you yourself. As a result, you "win", essentially dealing with yourself in a situation that you have invented yourself.

Bravo. Applause. A curtain.

I repeat, without the United States, we would live very boringly. And with them we have regular circus performances. It's good.

P.S. Media references to "American intelligence sources" or "American intelligence services" simply cannot be taken seriously. These structures have long been so discredited that any mention of them practically guarantees that we are talking about a lie, and in fact things are exactly the opposite of what these special services/intelligence are talking about. The most famous thing that comes to mind: the fake "chemical weapons in Iraq" - was "confirmed" by the American intelligence, the fake "Russian interference in the American elections" - was "confirmed" by the American intelligence.

Links to American intelligence or intelligence agencies are a kind of black mark. If you see it, it shouldn't give you anything but a grimace of disgust and a grin.

Posted by: alaff | Dec 4 2021 22:37 utc | 51

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 4 2021 20:51

What the plebeians are smoking one doesn't know, H, what Zelensky's imbibing seems clearer:

This clip below is in Russian, apologies, but you don’t really need the sound, the guy that put it together is Anatolij Sharij you can skip his introduction to about 1:30, he says in it he watched the first video by the same doctor, some of what the doctor said he found convincing, some he didn’t, then he watched another of the doctor’s videos, liked it, is showing it here (the clip), and as for himself he has been convinced for a long time that Zelensky imbibes coke.

From 01:30 to about 03:20 the doctor introduces the topic, says he’s had over 3mn viewings already (by November 30), a large number re-posted the clip, some 15% of those seeing it are defending Z saying the President’s tired, it’s doctors’ prescriptions, the doctor that produced the video is the Kremlin’s stooge, stuff of this sort.

To convince those watching the video the doctor seeks help in the US, he found 12 drug addicts there, compares the effects of the drug on them and Z.

You don’t need the full translation of the comparison, just watch it, the doctor describes what you can see for yourselves, he directs one’s attention to the eyes first, then the dry nose, followed by the touching of addict’s head other parts of the body, the facial expressions are also alike ….

In the end the doctor says everyone should make one’s mind up, let him know, stuff of this kind, finishes by saying ‘the doctor is both a friend and the servant of the sick’, (in Latin and in Russian) implying Z needs both.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y16o2agow5Q

Posted by: Baron | Dec 4 2021 22:47 utc | 52

While messages and counter messages by both alleged warrying parts follow one day after the other, and preparations for another Putin-Biden Summit is on the way...we, the people, are facing the same problems everywhere, and morevoer paying the bill, through high inflation, estratospheric rising in prices of food, goods, and energy, slowing of supply lines, and seeing our right evaporate...

https://twitter.com/Nycweatherrepor/status/1466452850310094848

American intelligence, as well as US government and deep state, is under control of The Jesuits, through their alumni and professors from Fordham and Georgetown Univeristies...

All, Russians and Americans, agree in the impossition of UN 2030 Agenda which interwins in goals and protagonist executors with the Great Reset of Davos....

They need stressors multiplying at every minute through TV so that your mind can not rest and stop to think...

Posted by: Black bread | Dec 4 2021 22:50 utc | 53

The Empire really has no interest in making Russia an ally. No less a personage than VV Putin could attest to that: given the opportunity of entering into an alliance with Russia as a junior partner in the 1990s the US reduced the country into an economic desert, stealing everything movable and coming very close to genocide. Far more people died as a result of the shock therapy of the imperialist neo-liberals than from even the worst of Stalin's purges.
It took Putin a long time to recognise that the US simply wants Russia to disappear, to be broken up and, once again, be reduced to a small centre surrounded by colonies of Turks, Mongols, Poles, Scandinavian Balts and Germans. (Sometimes one wonders whether he still doubts Washington's intentions.)
And that remains the Empire's objective- it doesn't want a partnership with Moscow headed by a stooge like Navalny but a Fifth Column on hand to debilitate the country, to justify sanctions, to produce unrest, to weaken society. That is what all the NGOs and western spooks have been working at- destroying Russia, recruiting agents of chaos.
Since the Eighteenth Century the empire expanding westwards to the Pacific and its rival, coming at the Pacific from the east, have been on a course to clash. Even the line up of alliances has never changed much: India is as reliably part of the Empire today as it was, under British rule, in 1821.
The key as everyone realises is China, which, even when 'sleeping' under the latter Qings, was the giant in terms of population, culture, resources. And to China the Empire has only one trump card, which is evident in its Russian agents, racism- the Yellow Peril. It is not a winning hand.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2021 22:56 utc | 54

The aim of the heightened tensions in the east of Ukraine, the reason for it, and the holy grail the Americans have been pursuing for years is the scrapping of the Nord-2.

Energy is ubiquitous, it’s not only what keeps any economy going, it’s the most essential component for life itself, and fossil fuels still account for some 85% of it.

The scrapping of the N-2 will give the Americans close to full control of Germany's energy needs, they already control all major oil/gas supplier countries except Venezuela, even the current pipeline that runs from Russia's Yamal fields, branches out before leaving Russia (one through Poland, the other through Ukraine) is controlled by them because both Poland and Ukraine will do what they want, cut the supplies to the West of Europe if so directed.

There’s a chance that the German Greens will stop the N-2, they have the relevant posts in the new post-Mutti coalition Government.

Failing that the east of Ukraine must flare up again, the Americans need a quantity of dead bodies, the MSM poodles will multiply that number, the world opinion will be aghast the Russian are again slaughtering widows and orphans, the pressure on Germany to abandon the N-2 will be immense, the new Government will not be able to resist, the new gas pipeline will be shelved.

Posted by: Baron | Dec 4 2021 23:10 utc | 55

What I do not understand is why now? This is a repeat of last Spring, and that came to nothing. Back then, Russia responded to Ukrainian buildups with a show of exactly what they would face. This time, the West is having to conjure up Russian troops with imaginary reserve battalions. What is the point? Why is murica ready to sacrifice it's Ukrainian pawn now, but not back then? To impose those super duper killa sanctions they could have already imposed over the last seven years with no excuse at all needed? I cant take that seriously. No, something else is going on. Notice last springs follies led to A meeting between FJB and Putin. There is now a scheduled meeting once again. Is it just optics to make Bidong seem a strong and credible leader? A tie in, perhaps, with his "Democracy Boy's Club" pity party?

Posted by: norb | Dec 4 2021 23:15 utc | 56

US intelligence...

It is said that Gates keeps still a tight grip on the CIA and thus the deep state...

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Gates

He received his doctorate in Russian and Soviet History from Georgetown University in 1974....
In 1985, on Casey's orders, he conducted an intelligence assessment of an alleged Soviet plot against the Pope, in the hope of producing a document that would undermine Secretary of State George Shultz's diplomatic efforts to improve relations with Moscow....

Gates played an active role in the government's decisions regarding important foreign policy issues such as military intervention in Panama, the unification of Germany, the configuration of a new type of relationship with the already twilight USSR....

He stepped up cooperative efforts with Russia's new intelligence services, especially regarding the exchange of information on terrorism and drug trafficking, and in the fall of 1992 he became the first CIA director to visit Moscow...

...In 1996 he wrote his memoirs under the title "From the Shadows: The Story of Five Presidents Told from the Inside Out and How They Won the Cold War."

...The controversy with the supposed terrorist cell deactivated by the Spanish secret services in the Barcelona neighborhood of Raval has regained the leading role of the prestigious North American politician in Europe. From publications produced by European social movements, the North American Defense Department has been accused of providing this information to the CNI without being able to prove its veracity. The news for the moment has not yet been verified and seems to remain in the background within the current news from the mass media....

Posted by: Black bread | Dec 4 2021 23:20 utc | 57

@Posted by: norb | Dec 4 2021 23:15 utc |

This is a distraction while the establishment of IV Reich advances full steam headed by Germany. It´s your tipical, "look and skirrel" while you are being inoculated with whatever that is and are losing your human basic rights form one day to the next one...Wonder yourself why Russian does not protest or exposes publicly what is happening here in Europe with such a once time in life opportunity to do it...

This simply benefits further advancement of the remake of old Tsarist system in Russia, so wished by this administration, since with a totalitarian system impossed in the whole West, Russia will be left quietly to develop futher its current oligarchic system without any more having to worry about impriving the living standards of the Russian masses plus no more having to hear claims from the "democratic West" on human rights grounds....

Posted by: Black bread | Dec 4 2021 23:33 utc | 58

@ bevin 54
re: The Empire really has no interest in making Russia an ally.

Quite the opposite, Russia must be retained as an enemy in order to support the USArmy budget, and also to maintain US dominance and military presence in Europe, and with the command of NATO etc.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 4 2021 23:45 utc | 59

The ROKs started the war. Neither China, nor The Soviet Union were prepared for it.

The DPRK counter-attacked and drove the ROKs south to Pusan. Mao and his entourage recognized the coming Inchon landings and warned the DPRKs, that warning was ignored.

Had Mao intervened to stop the Inchon landings, it's likely the war would have ended then and there, with Korea re-unified. But the Chinese had a full plate re-building their shattered nation.

It's most likely, the US/ROKs expected a free hand in Korea knowing the state of both the Soviet Union and China. They were surprised at how competently the Kims organized the DPRK army, and directed it against their forces.

The US only won with it's massive inventory of stuff left over from the aborted invasion of the Jap Home Islands. There are credible reports of this lot being divided between IndoChina and Korea.

To this day the US sees itself as owning all of Asia. Note how it successfully, until now, stopped Thailand building it's connector to the Laos-China railway, thus thwarting growth of the Thai economy, and it's diversification.

INDY

Posted by: George W Oprisko | Dec 4 2021 23:55 utc | 60

The Russians need to accept that no matter what they do, they will be vilified, WRT happenings in the FSU.

Instead of the current defensive posture, a much better approach is to announce the
"Putin Doctrine" ie:
1. Russia is the successor state to the Soviet Union.
2. Russia decides what goes on in the FSU
3. No state created out of the FSU is permitted to discriminate against minorities.
4. No state created out of the FSU is permitted to embrace, or honor Facism, and in particular Nazism.
5. No state created out of the FSU is permitted to associate in any way with NATO.
6. Should NATO object, such objection will be considered a declaration of war against Russia, and all successor states of the FSU.
7. In the event of war with NATO, Russia's military objective will be the annihilation of the populations of all NATO members through the use of nuclear weapons. A conventional war will not be waged.
8. Should any former member of the Warsaw pact emplace forces capable of attacking any part of the FSU, and war break out, that state will be converted into a radioactive wasteland, in the first 20 minutes of the war.

9. In the particular case of the UK, in the event of war with NATO, the UK will be converted into a radioactive waste land within the first 20 minutes of the war.

INDY

Posted by: George W Oprisko | Dec 5 2021 0:05 utc | 61

"Am I alone in feeling that authentic freedom requires not just the end of capitalism but also a degree of autonomy from the collective?"

What do you think comrades?

Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Dec 5 2021 0:34 utc | 62

@Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Dec 5 2021 0:34 utc | 62

I myself only are willing to fight this fight for the time I have left to retire, then I will abandone this robotized lost of itself society for a remote destination where the least possible number of people lives around...Siberia?
I will then leave the young fight for their rights as I have passed fighting my whole life....

If they wish to become slaves, so that to be allowed entering the "universe of Ikea" where, eventhough not impossed officially by authorities here, they are already asking the globalist nazi pass,that´s their choice...

I will not remain where I am not accepted nor tolerated.

Posted by: Black bread | Dec 5 2021 0:49 utc | 63

Posted by: Baron | Dec 4 2021 23:10 utc | 55

The problem is that American government does not control American gas producers. Free economy and all such (i.e. who controls whom?). And piecing known facts together, the same 3rd Energy Directive that discourages long term contracts with Gasprom discourages long term contracts with gas suppliers period. Alas, it is not Gasprom peculiarity to prefer long term contracts even if the price is lower -- predictability of revenue is important when you make big investments. And small American fracking producers were clobbered by early COVID-19 market collapse, so they badly need credits, and bankers, similarly burned, need guarantees.

Thus in summer of this year when Asian were frantic for more LNG, including China, Korea, Japan and India, they locked long term contracts with Americans and Qatar, this left little for the remaining customers and thus for the first time in my memory, on fuel equivalence basis natural gas became more expensive than oil. Yet there was no huge stream of ships bearing LNG to Europe when the prices kept rising through the autumn -- most of supplies were purchased already. Europeans got screwed by their own technocrats.

I think that a main theme for the next 10 years will be the fall of western technocrats. Between politicization, and adherence to quaint economic theories, they wreck havoc, western populist may wreck havoc too when they actually alter the course...

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 5 2021 1:23 utc | 64

Hang in there, Blackbeard!

You are nowhere near as alone as you think you are.

Posted by: Yevgeny | Dec 5 2021 1:36 utc | 65

Montreal @ 23

It’s from the Atlantic Council but it gives a good description of the pickle Ukraine is in and why it needs to bring the East under its control

Despite a rapid increase in renewable plants in recent years, Ukraine remains significantly reliant on coal for electricity generation. Its coal-fired capacity amounts to 22GW, or nearly 40% of the total installed capacity, but not all of it is used. Even so, thermal generation is of critical importance because it guarantees immediate accessibility and flexibility at a comparatively cheaper cost.

Politically, however, coal has been a sensitive issue on several accounts. Ukraine’s high reliance on thermal generation means it also requires imports in addition to local production. In 2018, for example, these imports amounted to 21 million tonnes, 70% of which were sourced in Russia.

On the other hand, until a few years ago, almost half of Ukraine’s coal-fired capacity had been running on anthracite. However, these reserves are found in the now Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, or in Russia itself.

This coal industry site explains the timeline for why war is probable by early next year. Ukraine is facing critical energy shortages.

Due to high demand in China, some coal suppliers, including Russia, the US and Indonesia, focused their sales on this direction. As a result, the supply for consumers in Europe and the Middle East was reduced to a minimum by the end of Q3 2021. At the same time, Russian exporters face a shortage of railcars and difficulties in coal transportation both to seaports and overland border crossings, following a critically high load on the railway network, trying, first of all, to fulfill obligations under already concluded contracts.

In January-October 2021, Ukraine’s coal imports surged to 16.0 mio t (+2.1 mio t or +15% y-o-y).

Ukraine received 12.1 mio t or 76% of its coal imports from Russia, 2.8 mio t or 17% from Kazakhstan and 1.1 mio t or 7% from the US.

Russia banned thermal coal export, including anthracite, to Ukraine since November 01 and blocked rail freight traffic from Kazakhstan due to congestion on the Russian Railways (RZD) rail network.

Coal reserves in Ukraine fall to critical levels

Posted by: Down South | Dec 5 2021 2:05 utc | 66

Interesting thing: the Modi regime owned propaganda channel WION, which fatly vomits out anti China propaganda on an industrial scale, suddenly began blathering about "Putin's obsession with Ukraine" and "Russia's imminent invasion of Ukraine." So far the Modi regime has always been very careful to not antagonise Russia, Modi's army of paid internet trolls never utters a word against Putin (in fact they often bend over backwards flattering him), and WION itself was deafeningly silent about joint China Russia exercises and Russia's freedom of navigation cruise around Taiwan and Japan with China. But now suddenly, out of the blue, WION, which as I said is owned by the regime, is copy pasting Ameriganda against Russia. It cannot possibly be by accident. In all probability it is to fawn over Bidet in the Imperialist States of Amerikastan's "democracy summit", but with Putin visiting India tomorrow, we'll see if the invasion talk persists on WION or suddenly disappears, as suddenly as it came.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Dec 5 2021 2:08 utc | 67

This should be required reading for all Westerners. Once again the Wurlitzer is spinning the population up (and it's directed internally, not at Russia) for a new war based on false premises/flags. As b states, the Iraq WMD lies were used in the same way and were equally absurd to anyone who actually knew anything about Iraq's weapons. UN inspectors said there were none. I wrote (and got published in print edition) letters to the editors of the newspapers in Dallas, NYC (Langley Times) and D.C. (Jeff Bezos' blog, which at that time he didn't yet own) saying there were no WMDs and that the Iraq war would be a disaster for all parties involved except the "defense" contractors who were gifted with a banquet of opportunities.

This time around, we're playing with a nuclear armed superpower that provides energy (gas, coal etc.) to much of Western Europe and it doesn't have anything to do with whichever empty suit happens to be the sitting President. As usual it's the Borg and the propaganda multiplier.

Posted by: Tom_Q_Collins | Dec 5 2021 2:14 utc | 68

The whole world is a stage, so why should performances be held in Ukraine ?

MagdaTam @ 28

Ukraine’s energy needs , whether gas or coal, is almost wholly dependent on Russia. As Kissinger once said control the energy supply and you control the country. But in order to prevent Ukraine from falling back under the Russian orbit/sphere of influence the West is willing to destroy Ukraine.

They’re willing to burn the village in order to save it. Why?

It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire

Zbigniew Brzeziński, Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power

Posted by: Down South | Dec 5 2021 2:29 utc | 69

@Posted by: Yevgeny | Dec 5 2021 1:36 utc | 65

It is BlackBread, Yevgeny, but, anyway, glad you are also aboard.

Posted by: Black bread | Dec 5 2021 2:31 utc | 70

alaff makes a subtle but grave error here: he tacitly assumes that "confident predictions" are "almost guaranteed" to became true. Were this true, stock market would quickly double the stock price of a company after CEO announces that, starting from the next year, the company will have twice larger profits than predicted before, with deep baritone voice and steely gaze of (late) Colin Powell. But stock analysts would pore through "historical data", plotting relationship between CEO optimism and subsequent actual profits etc.

How many times we have seen confident predictions that six months from now Iran will get nuclear weapons? And how many times it did happen?

In the context of Ukraine, confident predictions the the Russians will invade were frequent but never true.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 5 2021 2:36 utc | 71

Posted William Gruff | 38
>While the US might force financial transactions related to Russian entities off SWIFT, that wont stop Russia's international trade.
Agree.
>Instead it will just force the development of alternatives to SWIFT.
Already done. Alternatives are already on shelf, as in “here’s one prepared earlier”.
The Russians were threatened with denial of SWIFT service in 2014 as a consequence of the Crimea absorption. The threats kept being made, so, along with China, they are ready to roll *swiftly* with their own exchange …. Every time some baying hyena calls for SWIFT termination of Russia, cooler heads in Treasury explain how it’ll cause a lot of pain to the USD. Cause once Russia is de-SWIFTED, who knows who else will join them…. The law of unintended consequences and all that…

>That would amount to a short term disruption for Russia but a long term loss for the empire.
Yes.

Posted by: Melaleuca | Dec 5 2021 5:15 utc | 72

Posted by: George W Oprisko | Dec 4 2021 23:55 utc | 60

Korean war started when USA, the occupying power in South, appointed former Korean officers that had severed in Japanese Army to head the South Government, massive riots broke out and guerilla units were formed and contact battles, against the American appointed former Japanese Army Officers. The South people appeal to the their one time teenage Hero, who had fought Japanese as a high school student, Kim Il-sung, who intervened, it should be noted, it was Kim, that attacked Kuomintang forces, from the rear and saved Mao, in the time his forces were hard pressed!

Posted by: Grishka | Dec 5 2021 5:16 utc | 73

from Newsweek...
In a post on Telegram, the social media platform, foreign affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova referred to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's condemnation of Russia this week. "If the State Department decided to look for aggressors violating international law, then its partners should start this process, by standing in front of the mirror," she wrote. . . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 5 2021 5:22 utc | 74

@ 72
Yes, SWIFT is just a messaging network, easily replaced.
"Behind most international money and security transfers is the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) system. SWIFT is a vast messaging network used by banks and other financial institutions to quickly, accurately, and securely send and receive information, such as money transfer instructions." . . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 5 2021 5:28 utc | 75

One aspect of the Ukraine crisis is usually not explained, even by well informed people like b or Mercouris. Why Russia refuses to negotiate with Ukraine about resolution of conflict/rebellion in Donbass?

A lesser reason is that post-Maidan governments of Ukraine are bunches of liars beholden to fascist fanatics. A major reason is that
a. the conflict is about human rights, right for political organizations to exist, right to educate children in the language of the local majority and freedom to use that language in everyday life, right to use political symbols, right to see murderers prosecuted and sentenced, right to participate in elections and to be a candidate etc.
b. Russia consistently believes that human right issues are INTERNAL ISSUES, so human rights in Ukraine can be settled ONLY within Ukraine. In this case, in direct negotiations between the government and the "rebels".
As the victims of human rights abuses in question are Russian or "Russian speakers", no government of Russia can abandon them to not-so-tender mercies of Kiev authorities. It would be damn unpopular, and rightly so.

This explains why Minsk agreements, on the insistence of Russia, include the requirement of direct negotiations between Kiev and representatives of Donetsk and Lugansk republics. And fascistic ideology of Kiev vehemently opposes that. And "human right protectors" in the West are vehemently blanking out those cardinal issues.
------------
Another blanked-out issue is that Zelensky government roughly doubled the number of troops on Donbas trench lines, to ca. 120k, or ca. 50% of military personal. It was done in the spring, and apparently, maintained till today, with the detriment to the readiness of Ukrainian military -- easier to maintain it in cozier quarters and regular exercises rather than trench duties.

Perversely, while necessary to credibly attack the republics, this is rather suicidal positioning of forces. Would Ukraine attack the republics, all those 120k troops and more could be surrounded by a pincer attack from the north coupled with air-strikes cratering of roads and railways on possible routes of retreat, with a secondary attack from Azov Sea to complete the pincer. With the supremacy in the air and in the quality of ground equipment, Russia has plenty of options how to pull it out. While the war would be a big bother for Russia, if Ukrainians kill many people, say, 100+ in a week, Russia will intervene, and it is much more practical to conduct a large operation through lands with no prepared defenses than to narrowly focus on the defense of the republics.

In the aftermath, Russia would probably partially retreat, letting the territories to organize themselves as "republics" if the sufficient majority is willing. Conceptually, the situation will be unchanged, "separatists" would still "wait" for Kiev to negotiate while being temporarily integrated with Russia in economic and freedom of movement terms. Such "cheap occupation" is definitely possible in the parts of Lugansk and Donetsk regions that are currently under Kiev control, and possibly in few other regions as well.

After loosing at least half of manpower and equipment, plus control over part of the territory, the remainder of Ukraine would be practically defenseless, and wracked by internal recriminations. And the West would be wracked by internal recriminations too. I have no idea what would happen to Taiwan during that time.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 5 2021 7:06 utc | 76

Lol. The boot is on the other foot!

‘Chinese Foreign Ministry on Sunday released a report on US democracy, exposing the deficiencies and abuse of democracy in the US as well as the harm of exporting such democracy. ‘

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1240661.shtml

In other news the still new Taliban civil war winning government in Afghanistan urges the US to stop the daily mass shootings of children in the US by other children who are recruited by their parents and given lethal weapons to take to school.
They also express concern about Pakistan headchoppers lynching and burning Sheila land and Indian Hindu fundamentalists beating and killing Moslems trying to pray in the open because they are not allowed to build mosques.
They have asked the UN to intervene in the US /Pakistan and India to stop such trrrorism and are offering to send troops to keep peace
/sarc

Posted by: D.G. | Dec 5 2021 7:31 utc | 77

WWIII is inevitable.

Posted by: gottlieb | Dec 4 2021 18:43 utc | 19

------------

They needed Russia and China in western hands by 2030 at the latest because there is no more time left. That was never going to happen so it's the WW3/Sampson option before 2025/26.

Posted by: nobody | Dec 5 2021 8:00 utc | 78

so it's the WW3/Sampson option before 2025/26. nobody | Dec 5 2021 8:00 utc | 78

Given the relatively robust health of the current POTUS, what is more probable is Grandpa Simpson option, long stories that do not go anywhere. The recent initiative to convene all decent democracies to join their hands online and sing of harmony and peace (reference to Christmas wishes of Steve Martin) seems in that vein. Even if lesser titans of democracy like Fiji and Montenegro will get only 5 minutes to present their dreams and achievements, the droning will take days and, dare I say, will not go anywhere.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 5 2021 8:40 utc | 79

@Baron | Dec 4 2021 22:47 utc | 52

Very interesting. I would not be surprised if it turns out that Zelensky has become a drug addict. We know from history that people like Herman Göring were drug addicts.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 5 2021 9:20 utc | 80

@George W Oprisko | Dec 4 2021 23:55 utc | 60

To this day the US sees itself as owning all of Asia. Note how it successfully, until now, stopped Thailand building it's connector to the Laos-China railway, thus thwarting growth of the Thai economy, and it's diversification.

The project is delayed, but the plans are detailed and construction work is ongoing.

THAILAND Northeastern High-Speed Rail: Bangkok to Nong Khai Line

Thailand's $55BN High Speed Rail Plan

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 5 2021 9:48 utc | 81

"despite past agreements NOT to expand NATO eastward"

As if any agreement or treaty has any value for the imperialists.

Posted by: Olivier | Dec 5 2021 9:58 utc | 82

Over time one learns how to read the newspaper and the buildup they construct for events to come.
zeit.de arcticle (sorry, this is german)

[quote]"Die russische Luftfahrtbehörde sprach zudem von einer Zunahme der Flüge von Nato-Flugzeugen in der Nähe russischen Gebiets. Am Samstag habe eine Passagiermaschine der staatlichen Fluggesellschaft Aeroflot auf dem Weg von Tel Aviv nach Moskau über dem Schwarzen Meer ihre Flughöhe ändern müssen. Grund sei ein Nato-Aufklärungsflugzeug in der Nähe der Route, das nach Darstellung der russischen Behörde nicht auf Kontaktversuche reagierte."[/quote]

loosely translated: the russian aeronautic agency reports an increase of NATO flights near russian territory. On saturday, an aeroflot passenger plane had to change their flight height on their way from Moscow to Tel Aviv because of a NATO reconnaissance flight that did not respond to their contact attempts.

That's quite the specific description, and there has of course already been one plane shot down over Ukraine. At that time, western media frantically blamed putin in the second the plane hit the ground...

Posted by: radiator | Dec 5 2021 10:12 utc | 83

@Piotr Berman | Dec 5 2021 7:06 utc | 76

One aspect of the Ukraine crisis is usually not explained, even by well informed people like b or Mercouris. Why Russia refuses to negotiate with Ukraine about resolution of conflict/rebellion in Donbass?

Well, Alexander Mercouris has explained this very clearly many times. The conflict in Ukraine is an internal one between the Maidan coup authorities in Kiev and the Donetsk/Lugansk provinces who militarily resisted the coup in 2014 and defeated the Kiev attacks. That is why the Minsk agreement between Kiev and Donetsk/Lugansk came about. Germany, France and Russia oversaw and facilitated the signing of the Minsk agreement, but Russia is not party of the Minsk agreement and is not even mentioned in it. It is an internal Ukraine agreement, that was signed by Kiev and Donetsk/Lugansk, but which has been undermined by Kiev ever since.

Western governments are now trying to pull Russia into becoming a party to the conflict by telling Zelensky to "negotiate" with Putin, but the Russians are not that stupid.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 5 2021 10:12 utc | 84

RE: Posted by: Down South | Dec 5 2021 2:29 utc | 69

“Zbigniew Brzeziński, Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power “

Like Mr. Brzezinsky you assign false attribution to the “strategy” thereby becoming complicit in plaigiarism.

“It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire “

The original observation quoted above, and strategies derived therefrom, was/were made by Mr. Josef Pilsudski and his advisors in response to the creation of the multi-ethnic Polish Second Republic by the Treaty of Versailles through the efforts of Mr. Wilson and others to undermine from inception the Second Polish Republic by internal contradictions facilitated by conflicting ethnic nationalisms, to affect leverage for “The United States of America”, and opportunities afforded by the Russian Civil War, and subsequent opportunities to undermine “The Soviet Union” and attempts to control The Russian Federation, the reprise of 1919 being the donation of a constitution.

“the West is willing to destroy Ukraine. “

You are conservative in your scope – a more perceptive scope facilitates the more relevant observation that:

Through their attempts to divide and rule to control others, the West has facilitated/is facilitating the destruction of the planet, an accelerating trend since at least the 17th Century. .

“They’re willing to burn the village in order to save it. Why? “

This is a very complex matter which is predicated on the reliance of the opponents on precedence thereby seeking to deny context including - “What is for afters ?” - given that some continue to believe that “Mr. Brzezinsky's strategy” proved effective in Afghanistan facilitating “The United States of America” winning the “Cold War.” and hence control can be affected without complete destruction of the objects sought to be controlled – Mrs Albright's standard of being worth it refers.

It is also a function of the vindictiveness in response to frustration of wishes inherent in the coercive social relations self-misrepresented as “The United States of America”, plus myopia facilitated by notions of “exceptionalism” as you reflect, since your contribution assigns prime agency/significance to “The United States of America”, indicating a level of myopia in regard to the agencies/significances/potentials of others including, but not restricted to, come-into-my-house-said-the-spider-to-the-flyness.

In scientific fora the invitation's register tends to be - test your hypotheses-, whereas in regard to “The United States of America” the invitation's register tends to be - faites vos jeux (place your bets) – from the 1970's onwards; Mr. Brzezinsky and associates through their activities accelerating the ongoing transcendence of “The Soviet Union” by The Russian Federation, and a private discussion by some during the 1990's of which “American” should be recommended to receive the Nobel Peace Prize.

Posted by: MagdaTam | Dec 5 2021 10:17 utc | 85

RE: Posted by: Olivier | Dec 5 2021 9:58 utc | 82

“As if any agreement or treaty has any value for the imperialists. “

That was understood by some and the advice was given, but like the advice about Afghanistan in 1979 it was ignored by those who thought they knew better – given the first perestroika then glasnost after dance.

From 1970 onwards some realised that “The Soviet Union” was not sustainable and hence some viewed the ignorance of others as accelerating that trend whilst increasing the sum of some.

Posted by: MagdaTam | Dec 5 2021 10:33 utc | 86

I wish to see a short list of good deeds for World peace and stability done by U.S. Intelligence since 1945. As the one with the most funds it should be longest....
Something similar for those of the UK, Russia, PR China and France - the permanent UN security council members only.

If too short get rid them if possible , even if others keep them as they harm their host more than give benefit.

Posted by: Antonym | Dec 5 2021 10:35 utc | 87

Baron | Dec 4 2021 22:47 utc | 52

Body language talks as well. Almost feel sorry for the guy.

Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 5 2021 11:29 utc | 88

RE: Posted by: Antonym | Dec 5 2021 10:35 utc | 87

“If too short get rid them if possible , even if others keep them as they harm their host more than give benefit. “

Like all dances it is a function of co-operation and mutual velocities.

Posted by: MagdaTam | Dec 5 2021 11:42 utc | 89

...
Hoarsewhisperer @ 33:
In case you may not have noticed, the Ukrainian President was a former stand-up comedian and the people in charge are the CIA who share an office building with the SBU (Ukrainian "intel") in Kiev.
These things are easy to overlook!
...
Posted by: Jen | Dec 4 2021 22:06 utc | 43

Thanks for the heads up, Jen :-)
One suspects that this nefarious scheme to further smear Russia has a better that 50% chance of succeeding.

From an easy-to-overlook point of view...
1. Zionist Jews control the lion's share of the Western MSM. So if they decide to spin Russian retaliation to a Ukie attack as Russian Aggression, their megaphone is bigger and louder than that of the side-stream media and will probably get more attention.

2. Jewish Donors have owned the lion's share of the US Congress since long before Bibi swaggered in with his crayons during Obama's Presidency to draw bomb cartoons for the Critters. His childish cartoon-enhanced anti-Iran lecture was rewarded with circa 6 standing ovations! Captured, much?
The downside of allowing US Congress to be owned by "Israel" is that it invites "Israel" to exert undue influence over any and all un-elected Leadership roles in powerful secretive US Government agencies concerned with Defense, NatSec, Foreign Policy, Spying etc., which require Congressional Approval.

Hence, with Congress gift-wrapped and labeled "Property Of Israel" the process of persuading Congress that Jews and Neocons should get the lion's share of those highly sensitive appointments would be a mere formality. And if someone smells a rat and tries to drop a fly in the oinkment, the Jew-controlled MSM can accuse any naysayers of Moral Equivalence - again.

Whilst it might be possible to paint a smiley-face on foreign control of the USG, that would be awkward when the entity is "Israel" due to its appalling record of Human Rights abuses in Palestine and the Silence of the Christian Colonial Lambs on the systematic abuse therein.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 5 2021 11:42 utc | 90

The difference between Iraqi's lie and the one being peddled today, is that this time around the game is up for the West. If an astute blogger can see the transparency of the lie being peddled I'm sure a determined and well-trained Russian intels have seen the whole thing many times more clearly and probably have organised how to respond to it, efficiently as they always do. What baffles me is that it seems like all voices of reason have been silenced in Ukraine. It's obvious to everyone that neither the EU nor the USA has use for Ukraine.

Posted by: Steve | Dec 5 2021 12:44 utc | 91

RE: RE: Posted by: Down South | Dec 5 2021 2:29 utc | 69

VIA Posted by: MagdaTam | Dec 5 2021 10:17 utc | 85

“The original observation quoted above, and strategies derived therefrom, was/were made by Mr. Josef Pilsudski and his advisors ...”

In lateral strategic analysis the choice of “causal start point” is always a weakness.

The chosen start point for Posted by: MagdaTam | Dec 5 2021 10:17 utc | 85 was 1919 but an alternative start point would be 1910 and discussions within the Polish Socialist Party including observations made by Mr. Pilsudski which I paraphrase as “Without Poland and Ukraine the Russian Empire is a land of lakes and forests” since by that point much of the “industrialisation” of the Russian Empire was largely, but not exclusively, based in the Donbass and Poland.

This informed the subsequent policies of co-ordinating the activities of the Polish Legion with the armed forces of The Austro-Hungarian Empire, to a lesser degree the policies of Mr. Wilson and others in formulating the Treaty of Versailles, and the internal ethnic settlement/control policies of the 2nd Polish Republic prioritising the “interests” of former members of the Polish Legion, particularly in Galicia and Wolyn, increasing ethnic tensions thereby encouraging the activities of the OUN.

In conjunction with the Gehlen and other SD assets after the Great Patriotic War – the 2nd World War being a misnomer since “The United States of America” had been at war in various forms with “The Soviet Union” and subsequently the Russian Federation since 1922 - , this allowed “The United States of America” to conduct stay behind activities in Ukraine from 1945 until at least 1954.

Some who had been involved in frustrating these stay behind activities from 1945 onwards, and others who also understood from at least 1970 that “The Soviet Union” was not sustainable, further understood that resort to stay behind activities in the former Soviet Union would be attempted as the half-lives of the Soviet Union receded.

Consequently the “colour revolutions” of 2008 and coup of 2014 in Ukraine were not surprises but perceived as sources of opportunity.

Posted by: MagdaTam | Dec 5 2021 13:00 utc | 92

RE: Posted by: Down South | Dec 5 2021 2:29 utc | 69

Hypotheses of Mr. McCoy to test if so minded.

https://www.rt.com/shows/on-contact/542157-new-global-order-mccoy/

Posted by: MagdaTam | Dec 5 2021 14:22 utc | 93

Just a small thing but small things sometimes show the hidden truths. Just dust off that map of Barbarrossa. They say third time is a charm.

The Bild newspaper, apparently, before publishing the article "Putin's invasion plan for Ukraine", dug into german archives. This statement was made by the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova.

"Lviv on the map is marked as "Lemberg". Modern Lviv in German will be Lwiw. It is under this name that he appears in the official materials of the German Foreign Ministry. But on the map of 1942, when the city was occupied, the Austro-Hungarian toponym "Lemberg" was also used. Fascists. So what map did German journalists draw from?" the diplomat wrote in her Telegram channel.

https://tvzvezda.ru/news/20211251337-wpaux.html

Posted by: Tom | Dec 5 2021 14:32 utc | 94

Just a small thing but small things sometimes show the hidden truths. Just dust off that map of Barbarrossa. They say third time is a charm.

https://tvzvezda.ru/news/20211251337-wpaux.html

Posted by: Tom | Dec 5 2021 14:32 utc | 94

I supposed they must have plagiarized if from somewhere, it was so old school in its thinking.

Dead battles, like dead generals, hold the military mind in their dead grip. Barbara Tuchman “Guns of August”

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 5 2021 14:40 utc | 95

RE: Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 5 2021 14:40 utc | 95

"I supposed they must have plagiarized if from somewhere, it was so old school in its thinking."

VIA

RE: Posted by: MagdaTam | Dec 5 2021 14:22 utc | 93

“Hypotheses of Mr. McCoy to test if so minded.

Mr. McCoy shares the methodological weakness of the opponents, including but not limited to,
reliance on precedents and linear extrapolations there upon framing his hypotheses.

Examples include but are not limited to the framing assumption that China seeks hegemony and empire, with a sprinkling of “orientalism” to ease digestion, that China will be incapable of sustaining such constructs since they were not participants in the European conversations/practices to facilitate empires.

Another example of seeking to assign intent where no intent exists, and positing that will be frustrated by the half-lives of previous “hegemons”.

Posted by: MagdaTam | Dec 5 2021 15:57 utc | 96

Thank you for your comment.

Well. Everything is projection when you get right down to it. You can only see the world through the eyes that you have.

I am aware of McCoy's work, haven't read it, for something like the reasons you mention.

Now leave me alone, I read some of your stuff, which is interesting, but have nothing to say about it.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 5 2021 16:33 utc | 97

@ MagdaTam- 85/92/93/96

Thank you for those interesting viewpoints. You frame it in a way I had not thought of.

Consequently the “colour revolutions” of 2008 and coup of 2014 in Ukraine were not surprises but perceived as sources of opportunity.

Especially the above @ 92

Posted by: Down South | Dec 5 2021 16:46 utc | 98

That is the game that the idiots running the US, its satellites, their media and their academies, are playing with a human race that still has not discovered how to think for itself.

Posted by: bevin | Dec 4 2021 21:51 utc | 40

Bevin you are 100% correct in your observation.

Never apply premeditated design when sheer dumb stupidity will do it just perfectly!
The lack of realisation of consequences is the part that really let's me speechless.
Could it be juveniles in mind and historical ignorance?
These boys and girls and what ever preferred pronouns types should not be playing these games because they have SFA understanding of the consequences!
Let alone the least worse consequences of Europe finding a lot of it's gas supply could be cut, because they are acting like assholes in a country that really isn't their business to be stirring up issues within

Posted by: JPC | Dec 5 2021 16:58 utc | 99

An interesting article by Alexander Sibirtsev on Strana.UA (in Russian).

What the Ukrainian intelligence unofficially says about the situation on the border with the Russian Federation - Strana.UA, November 30, 2021
“Troops are being transferred to new places of their permanent deployment. Previously, Russian troops did not have places of permanent deployment on the border with Ukraine. Now they do. Large forces are concentrated there. And they may be there for years and decades. They may never be involved [in combat]. Or they may go on the offensive against Ukraine. The infrastructure is ready for this. It all depends on the decision of the political leadership of Russia," says the intelligence source.

“That is why all the talk that it’s time for the Ukrainian army to attack in Donbass is either a provocation or pure stupidity. The Russian army, without encountering resistance, will strike from the northeast and from Crimea, effectively cutting the country in two and encircling the Ukrainian troops in the Donbass into a huge cauldron. Any plans for an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass can be thrown in the trashcan," says the intelligence source.

(Note, that Strana.UA has been banned from the .UA domain. The site now found at strana.one.)

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 5 2021 17:47 utc | 100

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