Later today U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia's President Vladimir Putin will have another video call. The Russian side had requested the call. Putin obviously wants to keep the pressure on the U.S. to agree on the two draft treaties Russia had offered.
He is helped in that by China who's Foreign Minister Wang Yi again emphasized Russian-Chinese cooperation:
On global governance, China and Russia have demonstrated our sense of responsibility. The two countries firmly upheld the UN-centered international system and the international order underpinned by international law. We jointly opposed interference in other countries’ internal affairs, unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction. Our efforts have helped build a bulwark supporting the practice of true multilateralism and upholding international equity and justice, showing the world how major countries should behave.
We are convinced that as long as China and Russia, as two major countries, stand together shoulder to shoulder and deepen coordination hand in hand, the international order will not fall into disarray, justice in the world will not collapse, and hegemonism will not win.
A preview of the video call from Russia, by Valdai International Discussion Club Research Director Fyodor Lukyanov, is positive:
"High-level impetus is needed ahead of the diplomatic negotiations. In fact, at this time, diplomacy fully depends on efforts at the top level. In the past, diplomats used to prepare an agenda, and then heads of state held meetings but now it’s vice versa: first heads of state reach some agreements and then diplomats make preparations," he pointed out.
According to the expert, since the United States did not reject Russia’s proposals on security guarantees right away, it means that Washington is willing to give a number of concessions. "Clearly, there is an array of positions that are unacceptable and will not be accepted, but this is what talks are for, they are meant to discuss the entire range of things and figure out where the parties can agree," the analyst went on to say.
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According to him, the United States cannot accept all of Russia’s proposals because it’s not appropriate for Biden "to engage in a conversation only on the Russian set of proposals." "He needs to make some proposals on his own part, and then negotiating skills will be what matters," Lukyanov emphasized.
I agree that it the U.S. will make a few offers but it is unlikely that the U.S. will agree to the Russia's core demands as it would end its plans to surround Russia to eventual disable it as a competing super power. The U.S. will try to stretch out the talks and will come up with its own mishmash of proposals for solely that purpose.
Putin's call is likely designed to prevent that. Russia had set a rather strict time limit of a few weeks. Putin will emphasize that. It is also possible that Putin will hint at some of the 'military technical measures' which Russia had said it would implement should the U.S. not agree to the necessary measures that enhance Russia's security.
Russia's most important request is to end NATO expansion. The U.S. will have to accept that in some formal way to prevent an escalation. I doubt that it will do so right away.
To set a frame for the talks there was some recent unofficial bluffing from the Russian side:
Russia’s new S-550 air defense system, said to be capable of hitting high-altitude spacecraft and missiles, including hypersonic types, has passed trials and is already in service, TASS has reported.
The Moscow news agency quoted a source, which it said is close to the Defense Ministry, who described the S-550 as “an absolutely new mobile strategic missile defense system, which is unparalleled anywhere in the world and capable of striking spacecraft, warheads of intercontinental ballistic missiles and hypersonic targets.”
“The S-550 air defense system has successfully completed state trials. Its first brigade has already been placed on combat duty,” they continued.
That is obviously nonsense. The beginning of the development of the S-550 was only announced in mid November:
Russia is developing an advanced, never-before-seen S-550 missile system, the Defense Ministry announced Tuesday.
Reports suggested the model is a revival of a late Soviet project shuttered in a deal with the United States.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the orders came from President Vladimir Putin at a recent meeting with military top brass.
Even Russia can not develop, test, produce and field a new air and space defense missile in just 6 weeks. The TASS piece is bollocks.
Russia has live tested the S-500 missile in July and reportedly fielded a limited number of those. A S-550 fielding is years out.
The U.S. is bluffing too:
A US Air Force E-8C Joint STARS battle management plane has made its maiden flight over eastern Ukraine for a reconnaissance mission to gather information about the situation on the ground, an American official has revealed.
Speaking to CNN on Wednesday, US European Command spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Russ Wolfkiel explained that the aircraft flew on Monday with permission from Ukrainian authorities and did not cross the border of the Donetsk (DPR) and Luhansk People’s Republics (LPR), which are currently run as unrecognized states by separatists demanding independence from Kiev. The frontier area is the site of a war between the forces and the Ukrainian military.
Wolfkiel did not reveal the aircraft’s exact route or its scouting information but told CNN that the Pentagon “routinely operates aircraft in the Black Sea region.”
The operational range of the Russian S-400 air defense missile is 400km. The U.S. plane will likely have stayed far away from the Russian and Belorussian border to keep out of their reach.
Talks between Russia and the U.S. will begin on January 10 on the level of Deputy Foreign Ministers. Talks with NATO and with the OSCE will follow a few days later.
So far U.S. foreign policy under Joe Biden has been a continuation of the policies pursued under Trump:
If the Biden administration’s second year is going to be more successful than its first, it will need to take more risks and accept more short-term criticism to advance U.S. interests abroad. Engaging with Russia to defuse the crisis over Ukraine will be controversial in Washington and in some allied capitals, but it is necessary to reduce tensions and avoid worse outcomes.
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What the Biden administration must not do is simply maintain Trump-era policies for the next three years because they are afraid of the political backlash from hawks that are going to attack them in the harshest terms no matter what they do.
The U.S. policy of putting out sanctions left and right has continued under Biden.
I doubt that he and the people behind him have the will and the energy to change course. They would have to fight with Congress to get to an agreement with Russia. I therefore expect only little results from the upcoming talks.
The U.S. position will only change if and when Russia makes some really obvious moves and puts Washington DC under an imminent threat. A few hypersonic set up in central or south America should do.