Russia Details Security Demands To U.S. And NATO
On Tuesday the 14th I wrote about the serious security demands Russia is making towards the U.S.
Russia fells the need to press the U.S. for new agreements because the current development of NATO sneaking into the Ukraine endangers Russia's core security interests and would otherwise lead to a military confrontation.
On Wednesday the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei A. Ryabkov met with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Karen Donfried in Moscow. Ryabkov presented her two draft treaties that Russia wants to seen implemented. On Friday both drafts were published on the Russian Foreign Ministry website.
The first treaty would be between the U.S. and the Russian Federation while the second one would be between Russia and all NATO member states. The drafts detail and formalize the demands made previously. I had summarized those in the previous post:
The statement includes this list of demands:
- No more NATO expansion towards Russia's borders. Retraction of the 2008 NATO invitation to Ukraine and Georgia.
- Legally binding guarantee that no strike systems which could target Moscow will be deployed in countries next to Russia.
- No NATO or equivalent (UK, U.S., Pl.) 'exercises' near Russian borders.
- NATO ships, planes to keep certain distances from Russian borders.
- Regular military-to-military talks.
- No intermediate-range nukes in Europe.
That the above is not a "pretty please" wishlist has since been emphasized by several Russian authorities:
The draft treaties are short but the devil is in their details and I am not yet ready to discuss them in full. They are anyway only negotiation positions that will have to be discussed between the relevant parties.
An typical example is Article 7 in the draft treaty between the U.S. and Russia:
Article 7
The Parties shall refrain from deploying nuclear weapons outside their national territories and return such weapons already deployed outside their national territories at the time of the entry into force of the Treaty to their national territories. The Parties shall eliminate all existing infrastructure for deployment of nuclear weapons outside their national territories.
The Parties shall not train military and civilian personnel from non-nuclear countries to use nuclear weapons. The Parties shall not conduct exercises or training for general-purpose forces, that include scenarios involving the use of nuclear weapons.
The U.S. has 'nuclear sharing' agreements with some old NATO countries (Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Turkey(?)) according to which those countries would, during a war against the Warsaw Pact countries, use their airplanes to drop nuclear bombs which are stored in those countries under U.S. control. This would of course never have really work out in a war but was an argument for the U.S. to sell its 'nuclear certified' planes. The 'nuclear sharing' is also highly dubious under Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). It no longer makes any sense and should be abolished.
Under Article 7 the U.S. would have to remove those bombs and no longer train foreign forces in using them. The draft treaty goes even beyond NATO and would include U.S. nuclear weapons which, unacknowledged, may be stored on some Pacific island bases as well as in Japan and South Korea.
Even though those steps would be good for everyone's security I am pretty sure that the U.S. will be unwilling to commit to that in full. But it is a good point to have a discussion about and to find some compromise that fits both sides.
The same holds for all other points in the draft treaties.
Some NATO officials have already dismissed the Russian demands. Fortunately none of them counts. Funnily they make a similar argument as Russia does:
The officials also suggested that if Russia did make a major new military incursion into Ukraine, as it seems to be planning, NATO would strongly consider moving more troops into allied countries bordering Ukraine, like Poland and the Baltic countries, because the “strategic depth” against Russia that Ukraine now provides would be damaged or lost.
NATO sees the Ukraine as 'strategic depth' that protects it from Russia but it also wants to integrate the Ukraine into NATO and thereby remove the 'strategic depth' that protects Russia from NATO. Whoever made that argument clearly has not thought through the issue.
The White House response was more careful:
Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, said in Washington on Friday that while the Russians had a list of security concerns, so did the United States and its European allies, and that Washington was willing to negotiate on that basis.“We’ve had a dialogue with Russia on European security issues for the last 20 years,” Mr. Sullivan told an audience at the Council on Foreign Relations. “We had it with the Soviet Union for decades before that.”
That process “has sometimes produced progress, sometimes produced deadlock,” he said, noting that the United States planned “to put on the table our concern with Russian activities that we believe harm our interests and values.”
“It’s very difficult to see agreements getting consummated,” he added, “if we’re continuing to see an escalatory cycle.”
To me that sounds like: 'Let's stop moving forces around and lets sit down and talk.' That is fine with me. Do it.
The New York Times piece from which I clipped the above also added a load of propaganda to the issue:
[The Russians] assert that NATO expanded to the east despite a spoken assurance from James Baker, then the secretary of state, to the Soviet leader, Mikhail S. Gorbachev, that it would not.The agreement was never put in writing and Mr. Baker said later that Russian officials misinterpreted his comment, which applied only to the territory of the former East Germany. Mr. Gorbachev has, in interviews, confirmed that spoken assurance came in discussions only of East Germany.
That is a lie as it was not just Baker who had made the promise to not move NATO east and it also was not just about East Germany. A visit to the National Security Archive at the George Washington University can easily debunk that NYT passage:
The first concrete assurances by Western leaders on NATO began on January 31, 1990, when West German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher opened the bidding with a major public speech at Tutzing, in Bavaria, on German unification. The U.S. Embassy in Bonn (see Document 1) informed Washington that Genscher made clear “that the changes in Eastern Europe and the German unification process must not lead to an ‘impairment of Soviet security interests.’ Therefore, NATO should rule out an ‘expansion of its territory towards the east, i.e. moving it closer to the Soviet borders.’” The Bonn cable also noted Genscher’s proposal to leave the East German territory out of NATO military structures even in a unified Germany in NATO.This latter idea of special status for the GDR territory was codified in the final German unification treaty signed on September 12, 1990, by the Two-Plus-Four foreign ministers (see Document 25). The former idea about “closer to the Soviet borders” is written down not in treaties but in multiple memoranda of conversation between the Soviets and the highest-level Western interlocutors (Genscher, Kohl, Baker, Gates, Bush, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Major, Woerner, and others) offering assurances throughout 1990 and into 1991 about protecting Soviet security interests and including the USSR in new European security structures. The two issues were related but not the same. Subsequent analysis sometimes conflated the two and argued that the discussion did not involve all of Europe. The documents published below show clearly that it did.
Russia has put its cards on the table. It is now for the U.S. to show that it accepts talks on a equal level. To get to real treaties will take some time. There will be a lot of resistance from the Republican side against such an 'appeasement'. For a Democratic president it will be nearly impossible to get such a treaty ratified by a soon Republican controlled Senate. So the whole thing may have to wait for the next president to get it done.
Still, its a start and a good one too.
Posted by b on December 18, 2021 at 18:10 UTC | Permalink
next page »thanks b... it is interesting here that russia is finally making these demands... russia must feel they are in a stronger position, or a more threatened position or something has changed.. what would that be at this point??
as for the nyt propaganda - much the same was delivered in canada's national broadcaster - cbc, via associated press... a skewed view on russia must be maintained at all costs... it is virtually impossible for the west to see itself as the skewed player in all of this at present.. ultimately the response to a bully has to be short and sweet.. it may happen.. i am sure russia is ready at this point and i am quite sure the west is not, although the media would have you believe very differently...
Posted by: james | Dec 18 2021 18:53 utc | 2
Russia knows that any agreement or treaty will be broken when Amerika decides it doesn't want to be part of it.
Amerikas neo-conns wither demodogs or repugs will not go along with something that is be peaceful. That's bad for business with the merchants of death. Profit before all others.
Republican controlled Senate
repugs will take back both houses and then potus. It's going to be a very sad ride for us on Main Street
Posted by: jo6pac | Dec 18 2021 18:54 utc | 3
That is indeed a blatant obvious lie published by the NY Times - yet again.
It is fairly obvious the Biden Administration is in a weak domestic political position, and cannot control the narrative for its foreign policy, so is forced to react to or seek to limit the childish taunts that it exhibits "weakness".
In perspective to Russia's reasonable demands rationalized through "strategic depth", US military and politicians sounded "alarm bells" two weeks ago over a purported Chinese naval base in Equatorial Guinea - a perceived threat because "Chinese warships would be able to homeport opposite the U.S.’s eastern seaboard"! Sound the alarm!
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/africa/2021-12-06/china-military-guinea-djibouti-africom-3875711.html
Posted by: jayc | Dec 18 2021 18:59 utc | 4
1)
Article 4The Russian Federation and all the Parties that were member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as of 27 May 1997, respectively, shall not deploy military forces and weaponry on the territory of any of the other States in Europe in addition to the forces stationed on that territory as of 27 May 1997.
I wonder how would that go together with a possible EU army.
2)
The Parties shall refrain from deploying nuclear weapons outside their national territories
Would that preclude nuclear submarine deployments ?!
Posted by: jv | Dec 18 2021 19:02 utc | 5
If the US refuses to deal seriously with the issues Russia raises, then the action will switch to the Caribbean and Latin America. This has happened before-in the Cuba crisis. And is bound to happen again.
The matter of a second canal through Nicaragua will inevitably lead to questions of securing it from aggression. Then there is the Venezuelan situation- a war being waged against a sovereign state.
And then there are the BRI plans, generally.
Latin America has as much right as- and a lot more reason than- any European state to make defensive alliances against an aggressive neighbour.
From the American point of view all this attention detracts from the burgeoning irrelevance of the distant islands from the world island of Eurasia.
Posted by: bevin | Dec 18 2021 19:06 utc | 6
Martyanov have a 25in vid comment in his "thank god its friday" column on this topic, i just watched it.
Posted by: Per/Norway | Dec 18 2021 19:06 utc | 7
I should think that one problem is that neither the US nor NATO is interested in agreeing to and signing any treaty that would constrain US / NATO / other associated agencies' activities in the Ukraine. Acting in secret and in collusion with non-NATO partners while claiming the high moral ground vis-a-vis Russia and other nations perceived as enemies or authoritarian /anti-democratic, has always been the preferred style of the US and NATO.
The US Democratic Party is no different from the Republicans in this regard. Those parties may be polarised over domestic policy that most concern the US general public (especially issues of funding healthcare, education and social services and infrastructure) but on foreign policy where they do not have to be directly accountable to the public and where they can always claim that national security overrides other considerations, they will always end up agreeing eventually ... just not in the way that would really be in US national security interests, let alone those of other nations.
We'd do well to remember that US Democrat and Republican politicians (not to mention the US national security structure and network of intel agencies) act more in their self-interests and less on behalf of their public; ditto for NATO and all other nations allied with the US and NATO.
Posted by: Jen | Dec 18 2021 19:15 utc | 9
Russia is fully secure from NATO and USA as its far advanced unstoppable hypersonic missiles and air defenses (including space reach)can destroy both NATO forces and US forces in USA before they even get off the ground (so to speak).
Russia's military doctrine is to respond to the launch of an attack against it by not only destroying the attackers, but also those who ordered the attack.
Given the extreme accuracy of modern missiles that Russia has, these might as well be personalised and have the recipients name on it, wherever in the USA they are.
So treaties are not absolutely needed. But given the hot-headed impetuousness of some, they give a clear moral foundation, even if/when rejected.
The US/Russian treaty calls on the purposes of the UN Charter, which is basically non-interference in other nations affairs, and settling differences in the UN.
Therefore, if the Treaty if brushed away, any military response is done in sorrow, as every diplomatic effort was offered by Russia, and rejected.
The treaty is a binding document that cannot be abrogated by the next incoming President - unlike the JCPOA 'agreement'.
The USA Russian Treaty draft is a 'boilerplate' document that can be used, with a little tweaking, to form security treaties with any country of the world, on a bilateral (or more) basis.
There is no doubt - no doubt at all - that this will be the format for the future. Those who are peaceful, and with peaceful intent, will sign up. There may even be a peace dividend through other preferential economic formats for those who are not 'adversaries'.
As for those who refuse to sign and have loudly trumpeted that Russia is their 'adversary'? Well, the dog barks, but the caravan moves on.
It is impossible to say how the USA will react. Probably behind the scenes they have know about it for a long time. Joe Biden is a clever man. He knows people need security, mostly economic security. Russian energy cooperation is essential from 2023 onwards. And there is a climate crisis smashing everyone in these big continents. Domestic concerns are foremost in both Presidents minds. Militarisation is an albatross around USA neck, at the expense of ordinary people.
Any Treaty has to walk back the USA Govt engineered anti-Russia propaganda and race hate.
Therefore, Pres Putin carefully 'styled' the Treaty concept as coming from Pres Biden.
In any event, so I suspect this is all Kabuki, it is a done deal via Presidential back channel interlocutors, only the detail and timing need finalizing.
Timing is always linked to the USA 4/2 year electoral cycle. So it won't be signed until politically convenient to the Democrat party.
When it is, then Biden will undoubtedly be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, which is really just a bribe to try yo get the arrogant Americans to do what they now have no choice over.
Posted by: powerandpeople | Dec 18 2021 19:23 utc | 10
Dmitry Orlov had some thoughts on the subject:
Once upon a time Moscow was weak and Washington strong, but now the balance has shifted in Moscow’s favor and the time for Washington’s punishment has finally come. The only remaining question is, What form will this punishment take? The one proposed by Moscow is in the form of submission to public humiliation: Washington signs the security guarantees drafted in Moscow, drags itself back to its kennel and lies quietly like a good doggo licking its balls to console itself. And that’s the more pleasant alternative, a win-win sort of thing, offered in good faith.
You might think that NATO forces need to show activity and act dangerous in order to justify their existence and their ridiculously bloated defense budgets. Also, if they didn’t get a chance to be threatening toward Russia, they might become despondent and just sit around drinking, doing drugs and having gay sex, and that would be bad for morale. (But then what’s wrong with a little gay sex between consenting off-duty gender-ambiguous servicepersons?) I’d think that these are all rather minor, if not trifling, concerns, considering that what’s on the other side of the scale is the risk of a planetary conflagration.
http://thesaker.is/washingtons-crime-and-punishment/
Posted by: Bo Robinson | Dec 18 2021 19:31 utc | 11
Of course the US will never sign a proposal like this one neither would they comply if it is signed, but the fact that after three decades Russia finally puts forth a document on these terms is a sign that the times finally changed. It is in the public domain now and it will be talked about, analyzed sent back and forth, with the merit of placing very serious questions on the info domain, like no nukes in Germany, let us see what do the greens say about that (ouch). When Putin gave the order of acting to the Foreign Ministry everything was already in place, and take notice, for the time being it is Ryabkov and Zakharova who in a very assertive tone are feeding info, the big player Lavrov is being reserved, for the next stage, if things get nasty then it will be Shoigu.
Posted by: Paco | Dec 18 2021 19:33 utc | 12
Ukraine played an indispensable role as a buffer state between NATO and Russia. European idiots willfully destroyed it.
German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle was on the Maidan dancing with the "Hang the Moskal" crowd. His successor Frank-Walter Steinmeier was in Kiev on February 21, 2014 signing the end to Ukraine.
Posted by: Petri Krohn | Dec 18 2021 19:45 utc | 13
Obviously US will not sign it. Conventional forces are no longer enough to intimidate rivals, and it's too soon, at least in DC, to be giving up on 24/7 power projection everywhere.
The semi-realistic goal would be to bring back the INF treaty, presumably with China somehow involved, but again, so soon after unilaterally reneging on JCPOA, it would be crazy for the US to expect China to put any faith in the signature of the US President.
Posted by: ptb | Dec 18 2021 19:48 utc | 14
Deputy foreign minister Alexander Grushko is being a little disingenuous:
"We have made clear that we are prepared to discuss ways to shift a military scenario or a military-technical scenario into a political process that will actually strengthen the military security of all states within the OSCE, the Euroatlantic and Eurasian space. And if this doesn't work out, we have already made clear to [NATO] that we will switch to the mode of creating counter-threats. But then it will be too late to ask why we have made such decisions, why we have deployed such systems," the diplomat said, speaking to Russian media on Saturday.
The counter-threat already exists. Some missile and air defense systems will simply be ostentatiously moved to Kalingrad, next to Germany.
Surface ships with unstoppable missiles will sit (in continuous rotation) 5 minutes from Washington DC.
Ditto Cuba.
None of which is militarily significant. Subs are always off the US coast anyway. NATO military can be destroyed without moving a single troop from Russian territory.So...
Its classic. If you want someone to comply with a reasonable request, tell them why it is in their interest to comply Then give them the negative altative. Then let them choose.
Their animal brain shuts down, they enjoy having 'choice' in their thinking brain, preserve their pride, so 'choose' the obvious.
Posted by: powerandpeople | Dec 18 2021 19:56 utc | 15
Then you see what US politicians say for public consumption.
The mind boggles at the level of moron in US politics.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/12/representative-galego-wants-to-kill.html?m=1
Posted by: JPC | Dec 18 2021 19:57 utc | 16
Notice that the "draft" statement by Russia of the proposed treaty carefully includes both Russian and English languages to promote genuine understanding of the proposals for agreement. This fact publicly shows the deliberate care required to negotiate in good faith.
Ideally, both translation and public discussion of the matter are delicate and require careful expression, especially at b's MOA site.
re "...The draft treaties are short but the devil is in their details..."
should re re-writtem. There is no "devil" in the details and the American slang detracts from the truth.
Posted by: chu teh | Dec 18 2021 19:57 utc | 17
Concerning NATO, an even worse sign of the times, the EU gives an award to convicted and serving time Aleksey Navalny, the award is in Russian with two typos, in big capitals the award is granted to ALESKEY NAVALNY.
What else do we need to know? With those salaries, first class here and there, all sorts of perks and they cannot print a proper award, I send the European Union to Patroklos, for remedial treatment.
https://ria.ru/20211215/opechatki-1763950346.html
Posted by: Paco | Dec 18 2021 20:01 utc | 18
Article in Saker says it's a set of Demands, not talking points for negotiation.
Russia is not bargaining anymore since Russia has no more space to retreat.
https://thesaker.is/washingtons-crime-and-punishment/
Posted by: Surferket | Dec 18 2021 20:09 utc | 19
It is hugely unlikely that the Democrats are any more amenable to Russia's proposed Treaties than the Republicans - the Treaties will never get through the Senate or the House of Representatives (either by the two-thirds as required for ratification, or achieve a straight majority). POTUS used to be able to agree Treaty's but may not be able to do do now because of measures implemented against Trump (or so I believe) - regardless, POTUS will never agree these Treaties (not least because the Treaties would form a model to end all international conflicts including those with Iran and China).
For there to be any chance of the US/West agreeing these Treaties there needs to be significant pressure from the public but the Western population has been primed to be extremely hostile to Russia. How do we change the way our people (the western population) think?
--oOo---
Analysis of Russia's proposed Treaties by Alexander Mercouris:
Russia Demands US Strategic Retreat, Demands US Agree Draft Treaties Ending/Reversing NATO Expansion
Posted by: ADKC | Dec 18 2021 20:09 utc | 20
And for those who would prefer a video summary of what is going on, here is the famous 'sign here' Vladimir Putin 'give me my pen' clip. This is how you deal with thugs:
Posted by: powerandpeople | Dec 18 2021 20:10 utc | 21
I do love the way they qualify their activities with 'interests with values' it is so hypocritical !
Posted by: michael lacey | Dec 18 2021 20:10 utc | 22
@powerandpeople | Dec 18 2021 19:23 utc | 10
Joe Biden is a clever man.If he ever was, he is now an empty suit. That is why he is president.
And there is a climate crisis smashing everyone in these big continents.No, there isn't. The crisis is 100% political and has nothing to do with climate.
When it is, then Biden will undoubtedly be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, which is really just a bribe to try yo get the arrogant Americans to do what they now have no choice over.US$1 million is not even pocket change for "The Big Guy".
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 18 2021 20:25 utc | 23
@Paco | Dec 18 2021 19:33 utc | 12
Lavrov is being reserved, for the next stage, if things get nasty then it will be Shoigu.Yes. Someone said there is a Russian saying: If you don't want to speak to Lavrov, you can speak to Shoigu.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 18 2021 20:29 utc | 24
This is how out of touch with reality some American politicians are when it comes to Russian capabilities.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/12/representative-galego-wants-to-kill.html
Amusingly, Mr. Martinov, who is a USA resident Russian, tried to contact this impolite neandertal so that he could give Mr. Galego his home address - to make it easier for Mr. Galego to come and kill him. After all, he is one of these despised 'Russians'.
Note that USA also refuses to vote to denounce nazism and xenophobia at the UN. And that is President Biden's decision. This is how history will now judge him. This is what you get when you stir up race-hate for political gain.
Utterly disgusting.
Well, its over. Sign here, Brandon.
Posted by: powerandpeople | Dec 18 2021 20:31 utc | 25
Posted by: Paco | Dec 18 2021 20:01 utc | 18
Get me a red pen!! ;)
Posted by: Patroklos | Dec 18 2021 20:31 utc | 26
"For a Democratic president it will be nearly impossible to get such a treaty ratified by a soon Republican controlled Senate. "
Once upon a time this was true. I think you would do well to re-evaluate American Politics. It's changed dramatically and suddenly and I don't think these old assumptions remain valid. The Republicans may continue to be bellicose, the Dems however, will never let their hatred of Russia go. Ever. Nor will any Dem official seek to ratify a treaty that doesn't bow to illusions of grandeur - at least until USA is humbled to the point of destitution. Do not underestimate the extremity of delusion in America these days. It ain't gonna end well.
I keep hoping Russia is using this as a last warning before deploying arms on America's door step. How would America's self styled elite handle Zircon batteries in Mexico? And yetthey can't see why NATO in Ukrainistan is offensive in every meaning of the word.
Posted by: New Guy | Dec 18 2021 20:58 utc | 27
Martyanov spells it out in this video, this is an interesting analysis
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 18 2021 20:59 utc | 28
Related topic got an "analysis" in NYT. The punch line floored me. I mean: genuinely unexpected. I will paste some quotes and comment on them.
Biden’s Stand on Ukraine Is a Wider Test of U.S. Credibility Abroad
President Barack Obama also warned of severe consequences if Russia took action against its neighbor. Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea anyway.
Weep, my little children.
Mr. Biden hopes to have more influence over Mr. Putin through an explicit threat to take more punishing economic action than Mr. Obama did after the annexation of Crimea, and Mr. Putin’s subsequent instigation of a separatist insurgency in eastern Ukraine that has since left as many as 13,000 people dead.
Most of those dead are east Ukrainian civilians bombed and shelled by "their own government".
Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the nonpartisan Center for a New American Security, said the standoff amounted to a test of American credibility.
There used to be more optimism in think tanks, like New American Century. Now we hunker down. At least, some security!
“Vladimir Putin has invaded two democratic neighbors in just over a decade. Letting him do it a third time would set the global system back decades,” said James R. Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who served as the supreme allied commander at NATO.
It was actually not THAT bad some decades ago... perhaps the damage may be limited. But some efforts are warranted. Implore POTUS to be resolute:
“I strongly urge President Biden not to make concessions at the expense of our strategic partner Ukraine in response to the Putin regime’s provocative military buildup,” Representative Mike McCaul of Texas, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a statement.“This would not only fail to de-escalate tensions, it would also embolden Vladimir Putin and his fellow autocrats by demonstrating the United States will surrender in the face of saber-rattling,”
Plan A: don't embolden Putin. And if he is bold already? Plan B:
“I think the Chinese would be ill-advised to assume that if the United States did not intervene militarily in a Ukraine crisis, that means the United States would not intervene militarily in a Taiwan crisis,” said Bonnie Glaser, the director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “They really are different.”
This is the final paragraph, so plan C can be only inferred. An ancient joke from a Warsaw Pact country sketched how plan C can look like. A deposed leader of the country has a farewell chat with his successor, and gives the latter three envelopes. "I know that I have to go, but if you will be in deep trouble, open an envelope with my advise. Remember not to do read them earlier, and to read them in the proper order."
The new guy says OK, but as soon as the old guy leaves the office, the curiosity takes better of him. So he opens and reads:
Envelope 1: blame degenerate members of intelligentsia.
Envelope 2: blame the Jews.
Envelope 3: prepare three envelopes.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 18 2021 21:01 utc | 29
Andrew Cockburn was at Counterpunch Radio a while back plugging his new book. A salutary reminder that in the US, first, last and always the military is a business. it's not about whether stuff works or not because it's not war being waged, but campaigns for dollars. and a huge part of that business is getting "allies" to buy the same military junk.
Russia and China don't exactly have that problem, though, thanks largely to the top weapons dealer, their militaries are also businesses. the US military is the center of global corruption, it's not the center of efficiency, strategic thinking or capability.
Posted by: rjb1.5 | Dec 18 2021 21:08 utc | 30
During the Syrian conflict; Someone said that if Putin gives you an offer, you would be wise to take it, as the next one won't be as good.
The offer here is clear. A treaty. Sign it or leave it.
***
The part that defines WHERE Nukes could be kept (not in other countries), cannot be agreed by the US under the present circumstances; Germany, Belgium, Italy, Turkey (still?), and most other countries where "Nuke-carrying capable" F-35's are stationed and reserves of the new nuke gravity bombs are hidden.
There will be other parts of the treaty that won't be acceptable to the US Military/NATO.
*
So the question becomes what does Putin mean by; "if this doesn't work out, we have already made clear to [NATO] that we will switch to the mode of creating counter-threats." ? They will have to be credible and have to have been worked out already.
Suggestions; Cuba and Venezuela, Nicaragua, are possible places for deployment near the US. However, we have seen the generalised panic after a few Chinese acquisitions of Ports and influence. Why stop there? The US and Israel have been acquiring islands at the entrance point to the Red Sea. Could Russia find other stress points? Perhaps, but not necessarily for maritime supremacy, and not necessarily just as a single action gesture.
ie. NATO has been "advancing" across territory. Putin/Shoigu may think that a reciprocal "advance" into the Balkans or North Africa, might create a second sore on NATO's backend. What about the Russian Far East, nearer to the US. Or Israel and the US around Syria? What happens if the Russians declare a real "no-fly" zone in Syria? Or they could start electronic air-inspection around Cyprus for example.
*
I am to a certain extent second guessing without enough information. All I want to do is to show that Russia may have decided that they MUST go on the offensive, rather than remain on the Defensive. (Many on MoA have also suggested this must come some time).
The "First" offer of a treaty will be the best - of that you can be sure. It may be the only one.
Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 18 2021 21:24 utc | 31
Thank you b.
Finian Cunningham at Strategic Culture has a bit to say on the matter.
U.S. media reports cite Pentagon and Ukrainian officials saying that the Biden administration is considering a massive increase in armaments to the Kiev regime. This is on top of the $2.5 billion in military support that Washington has already given over the past eight years. The Biden administration has overseen $450 million in weaponry to Ukraine this year alone with a further $300 million budgeted for the coming 12 months. A separate proposal going through the Senate is seeking to boost military support for next year by another $450 million.
The UKUSAi is responding like it always does, like a run away locomotive off to war. This behemoth, dag arsed empire needs to crash and burn.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 18 2021 21:31 utc | 32
Two seemingly-insurmountable problems --
1. Because these potential agreements eliminate NATO's raison d'etre, the opposition from the well-ensconced officials and apparatchiks would be massive.
2. If a substantial majority of the demands are met, the MIC-intelligence-Deep-State interests would put up the most immense resistance.
Posted by: chet380 | Dec 18 2021 21:39 utc | 33
Piotr Berman #29
Therein lies the problem, no leader ever blames capitalism, the oligarchs or the royal family. Cowards all. Viva Mao Zedong 毛泽东 and Zhou Enlai 周恩来
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 18 2021 21:42 utc | 34
Stonebird #31
I cannot see the point of dragging Cuba and Venezuela into this at all. These are the days of long duration drone submarines parked off shore from some key UKUSA naval base. Likely they have been there and back a few times for all we know.
The strategy of shoving other countries around as pawns is really unnecessary, demeaning and sacrifices more than half a century of goodwill. That is where the UKUSA is and I doubt Russia is confused enough to imitate stupid.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 18 2021 21:50 utc | 35
I am amazed that so many commentators still don't get it, and talk about military response here or there or this or that.
US military can no longer dominate due to Russian advanced hypersonic missiles - unstoppable - and advanced layered air/space defense.
It's over.
Game, set, and match.
Yes, checkmate.
All the rest is detail.
Now let's get on with trying to deal with the conflicts challenging us in out real lives. Economy, erosion of purchasing power, coping with heat waves, water resource diminution, food insecurity, and so on.
Thank you Russia. You pulled back the curtain. A great service to us all.
And thankful for the Russian leadership predictability, patience, steadfastness, maturity, and Pres. Putin turning the other cheek as his planes were shot down (one by a 'friend'), some of his top military killed in Syria, framed for the Ukrainian shoot down of MH17 and so on and on and on. A peacemaker and a remarkable man.
Posted by: powerandpeople | Dec 18 2021 21:53 utc | 36
In Article 7 of the TREATY BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON SECURITY GUARANTEES, I believe Russia is referring to the B61 nuclear gravity bombs that the US has forward-based in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Turkey. Hans Kristensen of the FAS estimates there are a total of 100 weapons, see his Oct 2021 article
Under Article I of the NPT, nuclear-weapon states pledge not to transfer nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices to any recipient or in any way assist, encourage or induce any non-nuclear-weapon state in the manufacture or acquisition of a nuclear weapon. The US violates the spirit of the NonProliferation Treaty by creating a military arrangement to train and equip NATO member states with nuclear weapons, which are kept at military bases in those 5 NATO member states.
Russia is calling out the US on this violation.
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 18 2021 22:10 utc | 37
uncle tungsten | Dec 18 2021 21:50 utc | 35
I agree with you that there is NO reason to put S American countries in the firing line. Doesn't fit with Putins character either.
As you say they are probably there already, underwater.
However, increased "aid" and commerce (Arms supplies? Oil and food anyway) could be a way of stressing Washington a little, as this builds up goodwill and forms a sort of "encirclement" of the US itself. How about "escorts" for Tankers etc. - and I don't mean girls. Turns the "Encirclement" of Russia or China by NATO on it's head. Soft power works well over a longer time frame.
Under no circumstances do I think the "directors" of Russia are stupid.! Rather the opposite.
****
RE. Martyanov (Norwegian | Dec 18 2021 20:59 utc | 28)
I had overlooked that much of the Russian airforce and many military personnel have actual fighting experience in Syria, and now have most of the best hardware available.
The tie up with the Chinese (according to Marty), is interesting for military hardware. Engines directly supplied to China. His idea is that Eurasia exists and the EU had better get it's finger out if it doesn't want to be Lunch (Dogchow) for the US. As the EU seems to have been set up precisely for that purpose, you can see the newest "ultra-restrictions" due to C..d are being used to destroy industries and structures, for pillage by oligarchs. As happened in Russia under Yeltsin. The model worked for a while there - why not in the EU as well?
*****
PS: About Russian reactions; Tankers and their oil are stolen by the US regularily. (MbS does the same). The US practises outright Piracy. Iranian oil mainly but including Wheat and Oil from Syria, oil from Yemen, and probably a "cut" from Irakian oil profits (Trump demanded 50% for US "protection"). If they now declared at the UN that piracy should be stamped out?
Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 18 2021 22:33 utc | 38
American foreign-policy establishment is now being placed on the horns of the dilemma. On one hand, perilous overall condition of the USA calls for a quick accord with Russia, on the other, typical hubris of dying empires (and America, undoubtedly, is one of those) prevents them from realizing own weakness and thus making vitally necessary adjustments until it's too late.
I guess we will see tactics of delay, as well as desperate search for a way to accommodate Moscow without losing face. The latter appears all but impossible, so the emphasis will fall mostly on the former.
Putin will probably not tolerate it for very long, though. He can get everything he wants by simply taking over quite Russophile Black/Azov Sea coast of Ukraine and leaving the rest to rot away. Without sea access, Ukraine will become completely unviable in a hurry. Within months. Then it will have to crawl back to the negotiating table, and agree to any and all Russian conditions.
The subject of sanctions can simply be disregarded. Up to now they have been proven to be an economic boon for Russia, so the West will place some personal restrictions on highly placed Russian functionaries and be done with it. Nothing to worry about.
Posted by: Venom | Dec 18 2021 22:56 utc | 39
At this time, the published proposed treaty have a status of manifestos. If The West rejects them outright, Russia and other powers on the receiving end of NATO activity will get a common framework for cooperation and resistance, and so will the NATO-skeptical forces with NATO countries. Montenegro is a good candidate for the 1st country leaving NATO, but later, who knows? France, Scotland...
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 18 2021 22:58 utc | 40
What a nice present for the season, security demands made on the school yard bully front for the global private finance cult.
These demands are even better because it seems obvious that the bully has been bettered and its time to end the top/bottom unipolar world.
Thanks to China and Russia who are calling out the humanistic hypocrisy of cultish patriarchal Western empire.
Lets get it on!
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 18 2021 23:05 utc | 41
The UK has noticed which way the wind is blowing....
"Mr Wallace said Ukraine was "not a member of Nato, so it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to send troops into Ukraine to challenge Russia".
"That is why we are doing the best diplomatically to say to Putin don't do this," he said, adding that "severe economic sanctions" were the most likely form of deterrent.
Mr Wallace has previously said that the UK stands "shoulder to shoulder with the people of Ukraine" and remains determined to support them.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59712020
Posted by: dh | Dec 18 2021 23:17 utc | 42
Rusia está cosechando los frutos de su política exterior. Será difícil que la tomen en serio mientras continúe en su cargo el sr. Lavrov.
Posted by: Frasco | Dec 18 2021 23:18 utc | 43
Posted by: bevin | Dec 18 2021 19:06 utc | 6
"If the US refuses to deal seriously with the issues Russia raises, then the action will switch to the Caribbean and Latin America."
Totally agree bevin.
While Russia is pushing the Empire against the wall over NATO/
Posted by: migueljose | Dec 18 2021 23:23 utc | 44
--continued from above post
while Russia is pushing NATO against the wall in Europe they are actively working with many countries in Latin America on a varietly of issues: health/vaccine etc, business partnerships, factories, ports and more. Key countries are Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Argentina along with others like Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador.
Bottom line, there is more support for Russia in Latin America than most imperial citizens realize.
Good point bevin
Posted by: migueljose | Dec 18 2021 23:28 utc | 45
I probably don't acknowledge and thank you enough, b: another loaded post that informs and stimulates discussion simply unparalleled on the web, along with your one liners that make you sound like a Zen master--
"To me that sounds like: 'Let's stop moving forces around and lets sit down and talk.' That is fine with me. Do it."
thank you
Posted by: migueljose | Dec 18 2021 23:39 utc | 46
Fun quote :
"You might also think that Washington’s eastward expansion is not a crime because, you see, Gorbachev failed to get its promise not to expand east committed to in writing. Well, let me offer you a tiny insight into the inner workings of Russian civilization. If you enter into a verbal agreement with the Russians, break it, and then taunt them by saying “But you didn’t get it in writing!” you have just made the problem much worse for yourself. We all make mistakes and must sometimes break our promises, in which the proper course of action is to be contrite, apologize sincerely and offer to make amends. If, instead, you claim that the promise is null and void because a certain piece of paper cannot be located, then you have compounded you dishonorable conduct with willful disregard and have singled yourself out for exemplary punishment. This punishment may be slow to arrive, taking decades, perhaps even centuries, but you can be sure that you will be punished eventually"/
Full article here:
https://cluborlov.wordpress.com/2021/12/18/washingtons-crime-and-punishment/
Posted by: Venom | Dec 19 2021 0:04 utc | 47
Bottom line, there is more support for Russia in Latin America than most imperial citizens realize.
Good point bevin
Posted by: migueljose | Dec 18 2021 23:28 utc | 45
They killed Che Guevara, but not his spirit.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 19 2021 0:04 utc | 48
As I wrote, at this time, the proposed treaties are manifestos. If Russia wants to project its presence, it has to spend some money, and Putin does nothing without proper internal consensus (e.g. see leisurely vaccination drive etc., RF does not push those things beyond wide acceptance). Thus before plunking some billions (in USDs) in places like Syria and Venezuela, the importance to national security has to be explained to the audience, at home or abroad. If the West rejects the notion of "spheres of security" as perceived by Russia and China, they cannot complain about guests in the "spheres of security" that they perceive without being laughably hypocritical.
After Wagner folks made a decent job in Central African Republic (insurgency hostile to the central governments pushed to some small areas at the edges of the country), Mali got interested and France got hysterical, with EU sanctions that followed. Some people may observe that Mali is a bit further from France than Ukraine from Russia.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 19 2021 0:13 utc | 49
Do the Biological labs get a mention or does Russia consider it of no significance?
Posted by: john Mason | Dec 19 2021 0:29 utc | 50
@ADKC 20
Yep. Best I can guess, this is for the benefit of non US audience.
Re: Alexander Mercouris -- does he do shorter videos? Seems like some editing / planning the structure into a 15 minute format could make it easier to connect with.
Posted by: ptb | Dec 19 2021 0:51 utc | 51
Posted by: Venom | Dec 19 2021 0:04 utc | 47
Well all that eastward expansion did not happen by force. All those countries expressed wish to became NATO members and applied for the membership by their own will. I think Russia should ask itself why it has so many hostile neighbors, especially those who used to be together with in the past. You cannot say, as in the case of USA that it is due ignorance - Americans or Brits probably do not know much about Russia, but Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians and Poles do. Also I am not sure it is because of historical reasons - it that case Poland would hate Germany and Lithuania much more (in case someone wonders why Lithuania, they ethnically cleansed Poles at the end of WW2)
The hint what the source of such animosity might be, we can find in the abovementioned Orlov article:
As for its Eastern European neighbors, the Ukraine is, viewed from Moscow, a US colony and thus entirely a US concern, Poland can go and partition itself again (or not), and, as far as those tiny yet politically annoying statelets of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, so sorry, but the Russian army is equipped with binoculars, not microscopes.
With that attitude good luck making and keeping friends.
Posted by: hopehely | Dec 19 2021 0:56 utc | 52
By the time the next president, assuming its not Trump again, gets into power, Russia will be stronger, Amerikastan will be weaker, a weaker Amerikastan will be even less willing to admit to its weakness and will be even less likely to sign on anything. And even if it does sign anyone who's watched the Iran nuclear deal knows that Amerikastan's signature isn't worth the ink it's scribbled with anyway.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Dec 19 2021 1:05 utc | 53
@Venom 47:
If Gorbachëv had got it in writing, do you think the Imperialist States would stick to anything it itself signed? Ask the Iranians about it.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Dec 19 2021 1:08 utc | 54
ptb @51
Yes, the proposed Treaties are really a detailed list of what Russia will be fighting for when war comes.
In this particular video Mercouris goes through the Treaties in considerable detail. It is not a long video if you want to know what the war will be about. B's short article is, IMO, overly optimistic and unrealistic in suggesting that there is any real prospect of these Treaties being agreed by the US. It is noticeable that b does not call the new German government to account - he really should before it's too late.
Things are changing fast. Not only are US/Western munitions flowing into Ukraine at an increasing rate but also politically. The new German government will be much more supportive (a prime mover) of Ukrainian military action against the DLNR and Russia. That will mean that the US, UK and Germany will be cheerleading Ukraine. That leaves France as the only country that might be able to stop this rush to disaster (IMO they will not be strong enough).
Posted by: ADKC | Dec 19 2021 1:22 utc | 55
@ Venom | Dec 19 2021 0:04 utc | 47.... good excerpt from orlov! thanks... i think that is bang on what he says... i think like these russians he refers to..
Posted by: james | Dec 19 2021 1:25 utc | 56
@james 56:
Orlov is the same character who had a "brilliant" solution to the Donbass: evacuate all the population to Russia! Orlov is hardly an arbiter of what most Russians think or say.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Dec 19 2021 1:31 utc | 57
re; Biswapriya Purkayast | Dec 19 2021 1:31 utc | 57
Orlov is a very smart guy who writes some interesting and funny stuff, but like many very smart people, he thinks he is an expert about everything, which is unfortunate. You have to take what he says with a grain of sand. Of course, who do you know who is always correct?
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 19 2021 1:35 utc | 58
dh #42
Mr Wallace has previously said that the UK stands "shoulder to shoulder with the people of Ukraine" and remains determined to support them.
Well if perfidious Albion said that then the interpretation is "I mean the Ukranian oligarch living in Salisbury, not those smelly ones over there." And if further challenged on that statement (not by the bbc of course) Mr Wallace and his kind would emphasise that his remark "was days ago and of course any fool can see that events have changed and Russia is a ... blah, blah, blah."
Englanders in all positions of the administration are liars, cheats and thieves working on behalf of 'the crown'.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 19 2021 1:37 utc | 59
It's called "bluffing". You act as if you had the absolute bestest cards in your hands. Sometimes it works, sometimes it dont. But everybody's entitled to try, right?
Posted by: Robert Macaire | Dec 19 2021 1:37 utc | 60
@ biswapriva.... that is fair what you say... i am sure there are always elements of subjectivity in peoples characterizations of a people or culture.. i read brothers karamazov in the past year... i plan on reading the demons... of course reading literature is only one attempt at an insight into different cultures... and yet, russian great classical composers also speaks highly of the culture historically... i guess i have an overly favourable impression of the integrity of the russians... i might be dis-disillusioned if i was to go there! on the other hand, i quite enjoyed the people of india where i think you might be from! that was back in 98..
Posted by: james | Dec 19 2021 1:38 utc | 61
Biswapriya Purkayast #54
If Gorbachëv had got it in writing, do you think the Imperialist States would stick to anything it itself signed? Ask the Iranians about it.
Thank you BP, exactly that! The west would have blithely dismissed that as yesterday's diplomatic necessity which has been superseded because of 'Russia's aggression', climate change, the covid, the asteroid, ... clutching at straws to escape responsibility at every stage.
The EUKUSA are NOT agreement capable. The east is fully aware of that problematic deficiency IMO and so has to use every human ounce/gram of strategy to joust with these demons.
Remain calm and pass the popcorn as we witness the belittling of the enemy.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 19 2021 1:46 utc | 62
Matthew Ehret article, published in The Washington Times on 14th Dec 2021, calls for peace and a new approach:
Today’s Ukraine gambit as Dr. Strangelove’s revenge
"Wars with other nations, especially those in possession of nuclear warheads must be recognized as part of an obsolete age. Instead of provoking a war with either Russia or China, American patriots must pick up the torch where it was dropped with the assassination of Kennedy nearly six decades ago. This means refocusing U.S. values on repairing the self-induced decay while reaching out to Russia as our partner and ally for the remaining decades of the 21st century and beyond."
Posted by: ADKC | Dec 19 2021 1:50 utc | 63
hopehely @52
Estonia’s friendship is at best inconsequential to Russia. But Estonia sure as hell shouldn’t want to have Russia as its mortal enemy. And yet inexplicably Tallinn is doing everything it can to achieve the most unfavorable of all adverse outcomes, and appears to be succeeding in doing so.
Same goes for Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechs, Romania, etc.
Posted by: Venom | Dec 19 2021 1:52 utc | 64
@ hopehely ... many countries friendship with usa is definitely conditional on taking a subservient roll as some type of slave to its illusion of 'greatest country in the world'.... i am not sure how long relationships like that can last either.. when the money runs out, look out...
Posted by: james | Dec 19 2021 1:57 utc | 65
@59 Don't be too hard on Mr. Wallace. He's a bit confused at the moment. Putin's demand have caused a minor panic and the UK isn't quite sure how involved it wants to be with NATO. It may take a while for Poland, Lithuania etc. to figure out the new paradigm. They are anxiously awaiting some comforting words from Washington.
Posted by: dh | Dec 19 2021 2:07 utc | 66
It is very important that we do all we can to prevent a war in Ukraine. It is a mistake to believe that we can sit back, eat popcorn and watch the fun - it will not be fun!
The Ukrainian war is intended to involve the Ukraine regime as a proxy. The US/West WILL NOT send forces, they WILL send arms. The intention is to force Russia to intervene then bog down Russia in partisan warfare on Ukrainian territory for years to come. The US/West will then use Russian intervention as a reason for the rest of the world to isolate and sanction Russian and kill off Nordstream 2.
The probable outcome will be a New Cold War and Iron Curtain but one where the US/Western population will become familiar with the Gulag (i.e. Detention Centres, Internment). It is the US/Western people who will suffer most NOT the US government or Russia or China. And it will be the US, UK, Germany and Israel (the main powers behind the Covid hoax, experimental gene therapy injections and planned digital ID tyranny) who will gain.
At the very least write to your elected representative and refer to Matthew Ehret's article in The Washington Times (see my post @64) to make your point. You don't stop war by watching TV or simply reading MoA.
Posted by: ADKC | Dec 19 2021 2:19 utc | 67
re; ADKC | Dec 19 2021 2:19 utc | 67
I doubt that Russia will accommodate the US in the manner you suggest. If push comes to shove, it will be on Russian terms.
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 19 2021 2:32 utc | 68
Has anybody noticed the fact that a great number of bullets of all calibers are being bought by the USA from Russia?
What is the purpose of this?
What are they planning?
Posted by: CarlD | Dec 19 2021 2:33 utc | 69
Thanks ADKC for the Ehret article! It brings tears to my eyes. Well, tonight is Saint Nicholas Eve, Old Calendar -- he's a good person to ask favors --- give us some American patriots, give them the strength to pick up the torch, please!
Posted by: juliania | Dec 19 2021 2:48 utc | 70
Posted by: Venom | Dec 19 2021 1:52 utc | 64
Estonia’s friendship is at best inconsequential to Russia.
Yeah, sure, who cares about those little insignificant Estonians...
Well, it turned out, NATO did care. It addressed itty bitty Estonia's security concerns by signing the treaty with it.
And also with Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria,..., and here we are, enjoying consequences from a basket of inconsequentials.
Posted by: hopehely | Dec 19 2021 2:51 utc | 71
I do not think anyone in the Russian leadership has any intention of taking steps they believe will create a more hazardous situation. They will respond in a way that surprises everyone, towards the end of minimizing the harm America and her servile European and Australian lackeys can inflict. An extremely difficult task and I wish them luck.
Rest assured they have a cogent well thought out series of steps to take, after each of which they will review and reassess before taking the next step. They are fully aware that the West will meet these proposals with contempt, bravado, stupidity and a complete lack of shame or situational awareness. They know their next move. The West does not believe the Russians have a next move. More fool us.
The Russians are not children, they are deeply worried about the impending collapse of America and extremely wary of unintended negative consequences. I believe this is the greater driver of action than any concern that America is a bully. America is an insane puppy raping SOB with some very seriously dangerous weapons at it's disposal and less sense than a broke down old whore with advanced syphilis.
Although Putin (tm) and team are messaging "counter threats", we do not know what this phrase means. I am very curious to see what unfolds.
Posted by: New Guy | Dec 19 2021 3:01 utc | 72
Posted by: CarlD | Dec 19 2021 2:33 utc | 69
As I checked about the impact of fertilizer costs on agriculture, I hit a magazine for farmers, and farm services include the control of feral pigs, very annoying pests in southern USA. There are various approaches to handle feral pigs, but all reliable approaches require bullets: shoot on sight, hunt without dogs, hunt with dogs, helicopter hunt (on the plains of Texas)...
Add normal hunting, plinking, training on a shooting range, it adds up.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 19 2021 3:14 utc | 73
I doubt that Russia will accommodate the US in the manner you suggest. If push comes to shove, it will be on Russian terms.
Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 19 2021 2:32 utc | 68
Russian strategy is quite predictable and reliable. Take only as much as you can control easily. Invest enough to make sure that people like you. Thus, they do not get bogged down.
In Crimea, Ukraine was never popular, back when Soviet Union was disintegrating, it was making scant difference if you lived in Russia and Ukraine. But gradually, being under Kiev was increasingly onerous, and the Maidan coup settled the sentiments. In the aftermath, Russia invested enough to make Crimea shine, comparatively speaking, and maintain long tradition of being the best resort area within Russia (or second best). But Donbas was more troublesome, so Russia kept it as a part of Ukraine, supported locals just enough, with little investment.
This year it changed. The incompetent "tycoon" in charge of local industry was removed, he owed several months of salaries to workers, and a new guy (a) paid back all owed wages, (b) promised a series of wage increases to make wages same as in the adjacent Russian region, (c) restored and modernized full cycle of steel production. Incidentally, Russia experiences a steel shortage because of export to China, and another steel producer is most welcome by the state. The steel mills are probably profitable already. As they were at it, the wages in schools, hostpitals, local administration etc. were equilazed with Russian. At long last, people in ORDLO can feel the best time since the fall of USSR.
With this "minimalist" model, if forced to fight, Russia would extend ORDLO only by the remainder of Lugansk and Donetsk regions, plus those adjacent regions were people really want to join ORDLO. Hence, no "partisans".
It remains to design the strategy with minimal bloodshed. Ukraine lacks air force (20 times fewer airplanes, and the remaining once are obsolete). In Syria, Russia learned how to bomb effectively from high altitude, anihilated convoys on roads and bunkers. Perfect to immobilize any armed group with heavy, easy to target equipment. And they have paratroopers to. Russian would enter through least defended segment on the border and march behind the units that face ORLO. That would convert nearly half of Ukrainian army into POWs.
At that point, there would be quite a chaos in the rest of Ukraine and the course of action could be adjusted. Control Kherson, Nivolaev, Odessa, Kharkiv, Poltava? As I wrote, if people there really want, OK. But as a part of Ukraine that politely requests autonomy, and in the meantime is administered in the language people like, i.e. in Russian.
Controlling more people is a two-side weapon. If they convincingly like Russia and dislike Ukrainian corruption -- much more dysfunctional than in Russia -- they would be a good contribution to Ruskiy Mir. But they would need investments to integrate, so it is also a trouble. Nevertheless, there is a feeling of solidarity among the Russians.
Russia would absolutely not touch the parts where it is not wanted, and the residual military potential of Ukraine would be close to zero, so no strategic need either.
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 19 2021 3:41 utc | 74
Way off topic:
Science sucks Big Time.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~//
Note:
I will police the comments in this thread. Any hyping of unproven medications and other not science based speculations will be removed and might get you banned.
//~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MoA is my go-to blog. NONEVERTHELESS:
Science sucks Big Time.
Scientists are just glorified employees.
I was one. NO MORE.
They created the Atom Bomb. They created the Covid Bomb. Fuck them. They need to be dead.
Posted by: blues | Dec 19 2021 4:49 utc | 75
Stonebird | Dec 18 2021 22:33 utc | 38
The US financial chaos of bailing-out and too-big-to-fail and debt-slavery and fraudulent "education" and fraudulent justice and Let's-Go-Brandon news/propaganda and torture/prison for truth-telling has led to the impossible PENSION SYSTEM bankruptcy.
That is why the Plunge Protection Team must forevermore bloat the "markets" to all-time highs in which PENSIONS are "invested". All PENSION benefits are now at risk. There is no way out of this debacle...
...and a miracle occurs! ...
A uniquely man-made, global pandemic wipes-out especially those drawing pensions and soon to be drawing pensions! Oh so cute. We have a remedy! And a surveillance-state, too. You ain't seen nothin yet!
And it is just coincidence. There is no other remedy that keeps the suoer-rich and powerful from the gallows.
Just joking. Coincidences happen all the time.
Posted by: chu teh | Dec 19 2021 4:49 utc | 76
My modest opinion for what it is worth. Not that I respect the opinions displayed here or even b’s articles (only some of which are good).
The Russians living in the West are beating their chests a little too much. Martyanov keeps harping endlessly that the West/US/NATO are declining. Well they are. This may not be something that any US politician will ever admit, and even the magnificent Philip Giraldi recently claimed that the US Military is still the most powerful in the World. Very difficult to accept the changed reality: the US could still easily smash up another small country, but peer-to-peer it would lose. NATO would only make things worse.
But the way these Russians are talking about dealing with NATO it is the equivalent of the US Iraq Cake Walk meme. I am certain that Russia would win a European battle against low morale NATO, but this would be far from costless for Russia, even without nuclear weapons. Simply, Russia would wreck itself by a Pyrrhic victory over NATO.
I sincerely cannot see any valid reason for the Russian ultimatum on NATO expansion then a pure desperation at the terrible strategic position that Russia finds itself in. At least in the short to medium term Russia has no good alternative then to issue ultimata in the hope that US/NATO could make a wrong move. Simply, unless US/NATO bungle up there is no winning move for Russia. US does not have to do much more with Ukraine then it has already been doing. For a few military trinkets it gives away and with a lot of cheap media braying about “Russian aggression” it is hurting Russia - keeping the economic sanctions on and the Russian military on alert. No matter how uneducated and dumb US diplomats (according to Martyanov) and military may be, they are unlikely to let Russia out of their iron grip via Ukraine.
NATO does not even need to use its escalation dominance at Russia’s border, just keep their Ukrainians killing the Novorussian civilians forever.
The situation could change in the medium to distant future if the Chinese economy survives its current very shaky situation and Russia replaces Europe with China, which it is doing as fast as possible. This could be reality in 8-10 years. Short term is in US favour, long term in Russia’s favour.
When the Ukraine coup started, my first comment was that US nuclear submarines cannot get as close to Moscow as the distance from the Ukrainian Harkiv to Moscow. Then, saving Crimea was a logical and easy move, but Ukraine should have never fallen to the US neocons. The sheer possibility that US could install nuclear missiles in Ukraine, not any actual installation, is keeping Russia in a bind.
Only the dissolution of US and NATO could save Russia from this festering sore on its border.
Posted by: Kiza | Dec 19 2021 5:13 utc | 77
They created the Atom Bomb. They created the Covid Bomb. Fuck them. They need to be dead.
Posted by: blues | Dec 19 2021 4:49 utc | 75
Science may create problems, but it also provides solution. An economist discovered that "In the long run, we are all dead."
-------
Just joking. Coincidences happen all the time.
Posted by: chu teh | Dec 19 2021 4:49 utc | 76
If you have a garden, you need to weed, if you have an orchard, you need to prune, and if you have a herd, you need to cull. If Trump was right, we should thank Woo-han scientists (just joking, designing this thingy on purpose is not easy at all).
Posted by: Piotr Berman | Dec 19 2021 5:18 utc | 78
Re: Piotr Berman | Dec 19 2021 5:18 utc | 78
Yeah, I someday will die. But will not make it easy for you.
You could laugh or cry. That is your choice. I will not care.
Posted by: blues | Dec 19 2021 5:26 utc | 79
@ Piotr Berman | Dec 19 2021 5:18 utc | 78.. i liked what you say there piotr.. thanks..
Posted by: james | Dec 19 2021 5:40 utc | 80
I was in some Satanic way forced to become a scientist, but somehow was transformed into a poet. God's Will. Love is all around me. Ubiquity it is.
I am now an Ubiquitist
Posted by: blues | Dec 19 2021 5:42 utc | 81
The reality is Europeans have deep biases. Hatred and contempt for anyone to the east of themselves, slavelike adoration for anyone to the west.
Anglosaxon propaganda expertly uses these biases to convert people, just like they do in USA, Latin America, Africa, Asia...
Added to that, they have produced relentless right-wing propaganda in post-1991 e. europe to prevent / oppose socialist or even vaguely left-wing governments. Many coups and overthrows achieved by this propaganda and 'protestors'.
In this anti-Russian, anti-leftwing environment Nato was offered, twinned with EU membership, at a time when Russia was in no position to present a military or economic alternative.
There is a racist assumption that Europeans alone are rational; that if Europeans collectively decide to hate Russia Russians should ask themselves why... History shows Europeans need little inducement 'rational' or otherwise to hate Russians.
Posted by: Unknown31 | Dec 19 2021 6:30 utc | 82
Brilliant analysis by Alexander Mercouris of the Draft Treaties presented to the US by the Russians
Russia Demands US Strategic Retreat, Demands US Agree Draft Treaties Ending/Reversing NATO Expansion
as Mercouris explains, the implementation of these treaties & agreements would imply a radical change of the international security system, and would rewind the NATO expansion back to 1997. This is really radical stuff, please listen to his walk through of the articles in the draft documents.
A relatively small note from a Norwegian perspective: Norway has a ~170 km border directly with Russia in the north. Implementation of these treaties and agreements would mean that exercises and provocative behavior by US and other NATO forces in the north of Norway would have to stop. I would welcome that.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 19 2021 6:50 utc | 83
@powerandpeople | Dec 18 2021 21:53 utc | 36
I am amazed that so many commentators still don't get it, and talk about military response here or there or this or that.US military can no longer dominate due to Russian advanced hypersonic missiles - unstoppable - and advanced layered air/space defense.
It's over.
Game, set, and match.
Yes, checkmate.
All the rest is detail.
Now let's get on with trying to deal with the conflicts challenging us in out real lives. Economy, erosion of purchasing power, coping with heat waves, water resource diminution, food insecurity, and so on.
Thank you Russia. You pulled back the curtain. A great service to us all.
Agreed, this is the key. For those who have not already internalized this, there is work to do.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 19 2021 6:55 utc | 84
Reuters has a story up saying that Republican US Senator Ted Cruz has got the Democrats to agree to include his Russian NS2 sanctions in a January piece of legislation....
Its the Red/Blue money party and it can get lots of angels to dance on the head of a pin but how is it going to concretely respond to Russian security demands?
Rubber, meet road...Ted Cruz's bluster is worthless blather as America drown's its people in its own bio-chemical-warfare-creation gotten out of hand.
The shit show continues until it doesn't and this holiday season seems different than those in the past.....but soon we will be in 2022 and wondering what is next....like someone responded to me...Dark Ages V 2.0???
Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 19 2021 6:56 utc | 85
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 19 2021 6:50 utc | 83
A relatively small note from a Norwegian perspective: Norway has a ~170 km border directly with Russia in the north. Implementation of these treaties and agreements would mean that exercises and provocative behavior by US and other NATO forces in the north of Norway would have to stop. I would welcome that.
Didn't Norway already ask for that?
(I got it from here.)
Posted by: hopehely | Dec 19 2021 7:13 utc | 86
The neocon dogs always return to their vomit.
Neocons bent on starting another disaster in Ukraine
James Carden asiatimes.com
"If anything, Washington’s neoconservatives have an unerring instinct for survival. Having brought about multiple disasters in the two decades since the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, from the Iraq war to the twin debacles in Libya and Syria, the neocons seem to have perfected the art of failing up.
Harvard University’s Stephen Walt once quipped that “Being a Neocon Means Never Having to Say You’re Sorry.” And in this regard, the story of the Kagan family is instructive.
Robert Kagan, a contributing columnist for The Washington Post, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and author of pseudo-histories such as The Jungle Grows Back, has for years been a leading advocate of American militarism.
His brother Frederick is a resident scholar at the neoconservative American Enterprise Institute. Writing in The Hill on December 7, Frederick Kagan claimed that Russian control of Ukraine “would create an existential threat to Poland and even to Romania – one that could be met only by major deployments of US and European ground and air forces to what could become a new Iron Curtain.”
He and his wife Kimberly, who heads the Institute for the Study of War – another pro-war Washington think-tank – were close advisers to the disgraced general and former Central Intelligence Agency director David Petraeus. Indeed, both Frederick and his wife are frequently cited as the brains behind the surge strategy pursued by George W Bush’s administration in 2007-2008.
But the most powerful member of the Kagan clan is Victoria Nuland, who is the wife of Robert and is the US undersecretary of state for political affairs..."
Posted by: Paul | Dec 19 2021 7:38 utc | 87
To see how UK/US perverted developing democracies post Cold war (including now- Nato countries) look up the activities of Strategic Communication Laboratories.
Even the dubious wikipedia has interesting tidbits:
In 1990, Nigel Oakes, who had a background in TV production and advertising, founded the Behavioural Dynamics Institute (BDI) as a research facility for strategic communication. The study of mass behaviour and how to change it led him to establish Strategic Communication Laboratories in 1993. Oakes thought that to shift mass opinion, academic insights as gained through psychologists and anthropologists at BDI should be applied, and would be more successful than traditional advertising methods....
SCL claimed to be able to help foment coups. According to its website, SCL has influenced elections in Italy, Latvia, Ukraine, Albania, Romania, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Mauritius, India, Indonesia, The Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Colombia, Antigua, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, St. Kitts & Nevis, and Trinidad & Tobago.
Interesting list of countries for sure... Something to remember the next time we hear 'legitimate expression of democratic will' and similar phrases.
Posted by: Unknown31 | Dec 19 2021 8:36 utc | 88
Treaty with the west has been demonstrated to be of little value.
Only serves as a delay tactic and/or for purpose of appearances.
Russia has commented of "red lines" being crossed and at the same time is showing great patience. While it may be just a case of choosing the moment (unfortunately for all), it also seems a case of truly not wishing to take that step (which is unthinkable to the rational). This causes/allows the west to take the comments lightly. Which then increases likelihood or either war or acquiescence (irrelevance).
China/Russia seem to forever dance around the matter of financial settlement and Escobars cheerleading grows tiresome. Seems to me that if they were serious, they would have done it by now - it is not a new problem or concern. Is Xi just playing Putin?
B's analysis while interesting and informative strikes me as one sided, unbalanced, less than realistic - and yet I look forward to it and learn from it. Not so much related to B's analysis but it is good that the general public (as I view myself) are learning that we need to read between the lines and take nothing at face value. I often thing that when times seem at their worst, it's because you are finally aware and paying attention and that state brings opportunity for improvement.
Posted by: jared | Dec 19 2021 8:39 utc | 89
@hopehely | Dec 19 2021 7:13 utc | 86
Didn't Norway already ask for that?
(I got it from here.)
It is a small step in the right direction. But talk is cheap, it has to happen in reality.
The new Norwegian prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre is a millionaire leader of the "labour" party, and a close acquaintance of Jens Stoltenberg, they come from the same party, from Oslo and they are virtually the same age. You might make the mistake to believe they are twins.
But yes, I agree the signal to ask the "allies" to stay away from the border area is an interesting one.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 19 2021 8:39 utc | 90
Saw pieces of decent documentary on the Boing travesty.
Surprised it had some much realistic analysis - not white-washing.
Facebook voted worst corp for 2021.
Surely Boing desrves dishonorable mention.
Google is permanent gold member status.
Posted by: jared | Dec 19 2021 8:43 utc | 91
Russia tends to do thing out of left field, the completely unexpected thing. Medvedev (not Putin) sending troops into Georgia, the kalibre missiles into Syria and the rapid bloodless takeover of Crimea. All unthinkable and unsuspected at each time.
My suggestion is a strong military alliance possibly including nukes with either Syria or Iran with immediate transport of troops to said country.
It would be a repayment in kind for what Nato has done and would send Israel into the screaming heebie jeebies and major apoplexy.
Posted by: JustAnotherAussie | Dec 19 2021 8:44 utc | 92
US now on record for -
- Nuclear attack on civilian population (twice)
- Assasination of it's own very popular and effective president
- Assasination of an incredibly great civil rights leader who advocated for decency
- Assasination of various leaders of other nations
- Supporting leaders which are cruel and authoritarion
- Global war begun on false pretenses
- War attrocities / torture (genocide ?)
- Targetting propaganda at its own population
- Censoring undesirable information from its own people
- Development of bio-agent which led to world pandemic - even if overblown pandemic
- Forced medical treatment of its citizens, which (no) cannot be rationalized as making the public safe (forex: presumably forced abortions would be on the table if deemed justified)
It's getting a little hard to see how this might be characterized as the shining city on the hill or whatever it was that idiot said.
Given the above: I think it is warranted that the various analysis could drop the tone of surprise at the latest evil doings of the empire. It is to be expected. It is not a "bug".
Posted by: jared | Dec 19 2021 8:58 utc | 93
@ JustAnotherAussie | Dec 19 2021 8:44 utc | 92
Russia tends to do thing out of left field, the completely unexpected thing. Medvedev (not Putin) sending troops into Georgia, the kalibre missiles into Syria and the rapid bloodless takeover of Crimea. All unthinkable and unsuspected at each time.My suggestion is a strong military alliance possibly including nukes with either Syria or Iran with immediate transport of troops to said country.
I agree with the first sentence, but not the second (nukes and troops). Your suggestion is Hollywood style US (and Australian?) reflex without thinking. The Russians are serious, and say only what they intend to follow up on. Doing what you suggest is not consistent with what they just said to the US, and would only increase problems.
Russia has already done something out of the left field. The two draft documents presented to the Americans and published widely for the whole world to see will force the US to 'negotiate' in some way or another. The US has already accepted that the documents exist and that they will be discussed. Trying to ignore them will be very difficult and will expose the US/NATO hypocrisy in front of the whole world. Maybe the Chinese have suggested a Sun Tzu move like this.
Of course, this would not be possible without the "out of left field" event that happened in March 2018 when Russia announced the existence of hypersonic weapons. Since then, the relative advantage of Russia in this area has only increased.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 19 2021 9:11 utc | 94
From a very sensible article in the Sunday Mail (no paywall):
“There is no doubt that Nato’s eastward expansion is an aggressive revival of a century-old German desire to push deeply into the old Russian Empire. There was never any other political or military need for it, though it greatly suited the USA’s military industries, which lost a lot of business when the Cold War ended.”
The writer’s view is that the impetus for both world wars was Germany’s desire to take over Ukraine’s riches.
Germany was much more involved in the Maidan coup than is generally acknowledged - cunning old Merkel.. And German businessmen had been casing the joint in Ukraine in the run-up to the coup.
Posted by: Montreal | Dec 19 2021 9:20 utc | 95
For any neutral bystander these Russian point look totally reasonable.
The U$ MICIMATT will label them expansionist demands and unacceptable: might only change when PR China or Russia do a Ukraine like revolution on Canada. Or have a North Pacific OTA treaty with Canada and Central and South America.
When are these military clowns in the Pentagon going to get wise? They will need Russia to contain PR China. Siberia would be the PLAs first recent conquest because of its oil etc.
Posted by: Antonym | Dec 19 2021 9:31 utc | 96
How dumb is the new German central government?
Threatening to shoot themselves in the foot (blocking Nordstream 2) if Russia takes back its lost Russian speaking territory in East Ukraine. That will teach Putin! Frozen German voters might teach them if Nature parks a few High air pressure systems on them this winter.
If London is U$'s poodle, Berlin is its German shepherd doggy.
Even Paris today is its Beauceron lap dog - De Gaulle is forgotten. The EU has become a joke (yoke).
Posted by: Antonym | Dec 19 2021 9:43 utc | 97
chu teh | Dec 19 2021 4:49 utc | 76
"A uniquely man-made, global pandemic wipes-out especially those drawing pensions and soon to be drawing pensions! Oh so cute. We have a remedy! And a surveillance-state, too. You ain't seen nothin yet!"
It is amazing how many "problems the repressers had over oppressing the rest", have been solved by the "Mandemic". (ManMadeDemic)
Pensions and the elimination of unecessary eaters, lockdown of politics in favour of oligarchs and Corporate controlers. Eliminate most of the small industries, farms, and businesses, or to make them ripe for takeover if judged rentable.
It makes many people totally dependent on MSM/TV supplied information. The Government controls the access to "pleasures". (Sports, Christmas, and family gatherings.) Even shopping can be turned on or off by supply line "problems".
*
There are a few things that went wrong with that rosy programme.
The primary "breakouts" of Covid were meant to be effective in the creation of a destructive tendency in targeted countries which others could easily take advantage of; China, Iran, and Italy (Although there, I don't really see why Italy). China stopped the spread, having already had experience with probably artificial Bio weapons. It got OUT of the preplanned disaster. Iran still has problems.
The spreading by Trump of the first sickos returning from China to all corners of the US and the UK putting infected individuals in care homes, spread covid (as it was meant to). However, the "mitgators" (Vaccs) then became incredibly profitable - leading to greed taking over. They also allow "VaxControl Papers" as the main means of repression. Experiments could be made in social control, graphene additions, euthanasia and reducing age expectation, and limiting the rate of new births.
(Stillborn children and those that die in the first few days, allied with menstrual problems are yet to be widely noticed)
*
Pensions? Finance? Massive multitrillion debt, both Governemental and private, leading to the use of MMT, (magical money tree) supplies of cash? I'll leave that for another day.
******
To go back to the original b's post,
"If you go down to the woods today
you'd better go in disguise
for Today's the day
the teddy bears have their picnic.
Sung by Winnie-the-Poo.
Posted by: Stonebird | Dec 19 2021 10:49 utc | 99
@Stonebird | Dec 19 2021 10:49 utc | 99
It is amazing how many "problems the repressers had over oppressing the rest", have been solved by the "Mandemic". (ManMadeDemic)
It solves hyperinflation too! Lock people up so they can't by anything but a Pizza and something from the Amazon oligarch.
Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 19 2021 11:14 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
thanks b... it is interesting here that russia is finally making these demands... russia must feel they are in a stronger position, or a more threatened position or something has changed.. what would that be at this point??
as for the nyt propaganda - much the same was delivered in canada's national broadcaster - cbc, via associated press... a skewed view on russia must be maintained at all costs... it is virtually impossible for the west to see itself as the skewed player in all of this at present.. ultimately the response to a bully has to be short and sweet.. it may happen.. i am sure russia is ready at this point and i am quite sure the west is not, although the media would have you believe very differently...
Posted by: james | Dec 18 2021 18:53 utc | 1