To all commentators here a big "Thank You!" for giving me so much.

My wish for the next year: May it be less pandemic and more peaceful than this one.

Later today U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia's President Vladimir Putin will have another video call. The Russian side had requested the call. Putin obviously wants to keep the pressure on the U.S. to agree on the two draft treaties Russia had offered.

He is helped in that by China who's Foreign Minister Wang Yi again emphasized Russian-Chinese cooperation:

On global governance, China and Russia have demonstrated our sense of responsibility. The two countries firmly upheld the UN-centered international system and the international order underpinned by international law. We jointly opposed interference in other countries’ internal affairs, unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction. Our efforts have helped build a bulwark supporting the practice of true multilateralism and upholding international equity and justice, showing the world how major countries should behave.

We are convinced that as long as China and Russia, as two major countries, stand together shoulder to shoulder and deepen coordination hand in hand, the international order will not fall into disarray, justice in the world will not collapse, and hegemonism will not win.

A preview of the video call from Russia, by Valdai International Discussion Club Research Director Fyodor Lukyanov, is positive:

Cont. reading: Talks Between Putin And Biden Continue

News & views …

Today I was busy with medical issues. Nothing bad to report on my side. But I feel somewhat sad for the people in the U.S. who's health get screwed by its 'elite' over and over again.

Seven days ago the CEO of Delta Airlines asked the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to cut quarantine time for Covid breakthrough cases:

Delta Air Lines Inc's chief executive asked the head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday to shrink quarantine guidelines for fully vaccinated individuals who experience breakthrough COVID-19 infections, citing the impact on the carrier's workforce.

CEO Ed Bastian, along with the company's chief health officer and a medical adviser, asked in a letter to CDC Director Rochelle Walensky seen by Reuters that the agency's recommended quarantine period for anyone who tests positive with a breakthrough COVID-19 infection be reduced to five days from the current 10.

The letter suggested that individuals could end isolation with appropriate testing.
…
"With the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, the 10-day isolation for those who are fully vaccinated may significantly impact our workforce and operations," Bastian wrote. "Similar to healthcare, police, fire, and public transportation workforces, the Omicron surge may exacerbate shortages and create significant disruptions."
…
Delta said that "as part of this policy change, we would be interested to partner with CDC and collect empirical data."

The CDC immediately set off to do what the business side of the U.S. told it to do. Yesterday it changed its guidelines for recommended isolation and the quarantine period:

Cont. reading: The Federal Government’s Covid Failure Becomes Even More Apparent

There seem to be general meme directives for 'western' outlets with regards to official enemies.

Russia is said to weaponize everything. The position of China is not (yet) seen as in military terms. The emphasis is on economic competition. Any undeniable Chinese achievement must be declared to have been a bad investment. The directive thus reads:

"When writing about China's achievements – question their purported cost."

The results:

• Global Markets – 1st quarter 2007 : China powers ahead – but at what cost?
  – Fin Law, Feb 09, 2007
• China pumps up the Cambodian economy, but at what cost?
  – Taipei Times Apr 07 2011
• Luxury Property in China: Boom, but at what cost?
  – Spears, Oct 18 2011

Cont. reading: When China Does Great Question Its Cost

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

• Dec 20 – New York Times Covers Up Its Debunked Lies About Peng Shuai By Adding New Ones
  Related:
  – Western media, anti-China forces use MeToo movement to incite gender antagonism: expert – Global Times
  As the Peng Shuai nonsense did not work as planned the New York Times invented a new case:
  – Fury in China After an Outspoken Teacher Disappears – NY Times
  Reality: The woman was known to have acute depressions phases and was taken to a mental hospital by a member of her family.

• Dec 21 – Iran And The Houthi Split? No, A Reporter Fell For 'Exclusive' Spin.
  Related:
  – US intel and satellite images show Saudi Arabia is now building its own ballistic missiles with help of China – CNN
  – Report: Jake Sullivan Reassures Israel US Willing to Take Harder Line on Iran – Antiwar
  – Israeli Defense Officials Cast Doubt on Threat to Attack Iran – NY Times

• Dec 22 – What Russia Says About Its 'Not-An-Ultimatum' Demands To The U.S. And NATO
  Related:
  – What happens when US rejects Putin’s ultimatum? – Asia Times
  – Russia warns of potential ‘large-scale conflict in Europe’ – RT
  – 2022 — Year of Major Power Conflict Over Ukraine – Consortium News
• Dec 23 – U.S. Navy Acknowledges Russian Weapon Superiority
  Related:
  – THE MISQUOTATION – Patrick Armstrong
  – Finland & Sweden in NATO would trigger response – Russia – RT
  – What Are Independent Media in Russia Saying About the Country’s Ultimatum to the USA and NATO? – Gilbert Doctorow / Antiwar

• Dec 24 – Merry Christmas

• Dec 25 – Experts Warn …
  Related:
  – Russia not deliberately choking gas supplies to West – Bloomberg – RT
  – Putin hits out at plans to block Nord Stream 2 – RT
  – Exit Nord Stream 2, Enter Power of Siberia 2 – Pepe Escobar – SCF

—
Other issues …

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2021-101

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"Moscow likes to commit aggression when the world is not paying attention. It invaded Afghanistan during the Christmas season in 1979 and attacked Georgia during August vacation season," ambassador John Herbst, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2003 to 2006, told Newsweek.

Check the date … and maybe read John Kiriakou: Those Nasty Russians

In my corner of the earth Christmas celebration starts on the eve of the day before Christmas (Heiligabend = holy evening). With small kids the gifts that the Christkind (Christ child = Jesus) brought will usually appear between 4 pm and 6 pm followed by a family meal.

I will not be with my extended family this year as I am still recovering from my recent medical procedure. But I will soon join them virtually.

To all of you a Merry Christmas. Have some happy time.

– b.

News & views …

Adding to the tenor of yesterday's piece

What Russia Says About Its Not-An-Ultimatum Demands To The U.S. And NATO

is a sign that the U.S. finally recognizes and acknowledges the overwhelming superiority of new Russian weapons like the hypersonic Tsirkon (Zircon) missiles.

Russia has several Corvette/Frigate sized warships in the Admiral Gorshov class with about 5,000 long tons each. They are designated Project 22350. More are these on order. They cost about $120 to $150 $500^* million each.

Next to excellent air and missile defenses and electronic warfare capabilities each of these ships has 16 to 32 Vertical Launch System (VLS) cells from which they can fire hypersonic anti-ship and/or land attack missiles.

The U.S. standard navy vessels are the Arleigh Burke class destroyers with about 9,000 long tons. There are currently 69 of them in service with each costing about $1.8 billion.

The Burkes have 96 VLS cells each from which they can fire Tomahawk cruise missiles against land or sea targets. The U.S. has no hypersonic missiles. (Ballistic missiles are supersonic but usually not used for such purposes.) Tomahawks fly at subsonic speed and are no longer up to date. When the U.S. attacked Syria in 2018 with a launch of a total of 103 cruise missiles against 8 targets 71 of those missiles were shot down by air and missile defenses or diverted by electronic means. Only 32 missiles, less than a third, reached their targets.

Hypersonic missiles allow the attacker to overcome the missile defenses any target can currently come up with. That leads to, as Andrei Martyanov teaches in his books, to an overwhelming salvo superiority for the side that has hypersonics:

The result of such calculations is well expressed in a quote from Admiral Turner who Martyanov cites: "It isn't the number of keels, or size of ships that count. It is the capacity to do what might be decisive in some particular situation."

Finally some folks at the  U.S. Navy Postgraduate School in Monterey have also done the appropriate math. Here are their results (pg 57):

Cont. reading: U.S. Navy Acknowledges Russian Weapon Superiority

Russia has detailed its security demands to the U.S. and NATO in form of two draft treaties.

Besides yours truly many knowledgeable bloggers and publicists have also written about the issue:

• M. K. Bhadrakumar – Spectre of war is haunting Europe
• Andrei Raevsky (aka The Saker) – Russia’s ultimatum to the West (IMPORTANT UPDATE)
• Andrei Martyanov – People Asked, I Respond. On the Run.
• Gilbert Doctorow at Antiwar – A Surprise Russian Ultimatum: New Draft Treaties To Roll Back NATO
• Patrick J. Buchanan at Antiwar – What To Do About That Russian Ultimatum
• Gerard Toat in the Irish Times – Delusion on all sides has paved way for Russia-Nato standoff
• Andrei Raevsky again – What could happen next if the USA rejects the Russian ultimatum?
• Patrick Armstrong – WE’VE SEEN THE ULTIMATUM, WHAT IS THE “OR ELSE”?

Andrei Martyanov also explains the timing. Russia is technologically and militarily in a strong position and currently can survive a break with the 'western' world without too much trouble. The U.S. is in disarray and NATO not ready to fight. It is simply the right moment.

To add to his short video I will also note that it is winter and that Europe depends on Russian gas. Gazprom is no longer offering gas at European spot markets but only delivering in previously agreed quantities to long term contract partners. This puts pressure on German regulators to finally sign off on Nord Stream II which the U.S. and Ukraine want to prevent by all means. Russia does not need that pipeline but Germany does.

The timing thereby guarantees that the issues Russia has noted will get the appropriate attention in all of Europe.

Some 'western experts' like the anti-Russian Dimitri Alperovitch believe that Russia will wage war on Ukraine no matter what but especially if the U.S. and NATO reject the treaties.

I believe that to be false. If something has to be done about Ukraine, which is currently not the case, it will be a Gulf War 1 style war that will destroy its armed forces but not invade the country. It is not worth the effort.

Andrei Martyanov lists a number of impressive weapons systems Russia could set up on its ground or around the world and sell to "more than allies" China, India and other customers. The U.S. forces would thereby come under severe threats in several theaters.

I believe that Russia has also a number of impressive new arms and systems that it has not unveiled yet. Those too can be station in many places and can also get sold to its allies. Those who threaten Russia will come under at least equally strong threats in their offices and homes.

Raevsky and Armstrong present more options in their last pieces listed above.

Meanwhile Russia has increased the pressure on the issue. Throughout the last days everyone of higher rank relevant to foreign policy and defense has held some talk on the issue. All of them were translated to English. This will supposedly help to get the attention the Russian steps deserve.

When Russia talks one should listen. Here are therefore the relevant excerpts from all these interviews and speeches.

Cont. reading: What Russia Says About Its Not-An-Ultimatum Demands To The U.S. And NATO

Last Friday, December 17, the Wall Street Journal published an 'Exclusive' that claimed a breach of relations between the Houthis in Yemen and their Iranian benefactors. It is an example for how official spin and the hunt for 'exclusives'  outweigh a reporters knowledge of local circumstance.

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The piece, reproduced here in full by Yemen Online, asserted that the Houthi wanted to get rid of the Iranian ambassador to the parts of Yemen they hold:

A member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was smuggled into Yemen last year and named the ambassador to the country’s Houthi-rebel-controlled areas. Now, the Houthis want to send him back to Tehran, Middle Eastern and Western officials said.

The Houthi forces have asked Saudi Arabia, which maintains a sweeping air blockade of Yemen’s capital, to let the top Iranian diplomat in the country immediately fly back to Iran, a request seen by Saudi officials as a sign of strains between Tehran and the militant group.
…
“Irloo has become a burden for them,” said one regional official. “He’s a political problem.”

To me that immediately sounded like bullshit. I follow the war on Yemen and there are no signs that Iranian support for the Houthi is waning and there was no news of any trouble between both parties:

Cont. reading: Iran And The Houthi Split? No, A Reporter Fell For ‘Exclusive’ Spin.

The Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai recently gave an interview in which she refuted various lies the New York Times and other media had made about her.

Today the Times responded by creating and publishing more lies about her.

To recap:

In mid November the New York Times had launched a campaign for a boycott of the Olympics in Beijing. As Moon of Alabama reported at that time:

New York Times Invents 'Sexual Assault' #MeToo Case To Blame China

There is currently a push for a boycott of the winter Olympics in Beijing. Western media are busy to push for an anti-China angle of the games. Their aim is a political boycott so no one 'in good standing' dares to visit them.

On November 2, by timely chance, some well known Chinese sportswoman posted a sad story about the end of her love affair with a once powerful older man on the Chinese social media site Weibo. That post was soon taken down, likely by the woman herself, but that was too late to prevent that the 'woke' western media and Olympic boycott campaigners made a hash out of it.

A day after the post was published and unpublished the New York Times mangled the facts to make it into a 'woke' anti-China story:

A Chinese Tennis Star Accuses a Former Top Leader of Sexual Assault
Peng Shuai’s accusation against Zhang Gaoli takes the country’s budding #MeToo movement to the top echelons of the Communist Party for the first time.

A diligent reading of the NYT piece revealed that there was zero evidence in Peng Shuai's post that a 'sexual assault' had happened or that Peng Shuai had ever claimed that there had been one:

Cont. reading: New York Times Covers Up Its Debunked Lies About Peng Shuai By Adding New Ones

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

• Dec 13 – The Fall Of Kabul Story Misses Some Damning Details
  Related:
  – Trump and Biden’s secret Afghanistan air campaigns revealed – Airwars
  Almost 800 previously secret US airstrikes in Afghanistan during 2020 and 2021 are revealed, as US military declassifies data.
  – Hidden Pentagon Records Reveal Patterns of Failure in Deadly Airstrikes – NY Times
  The promise was a war waged by all-seeing drones and precision bombs. The documents show flawed intelligence, faulty targeting, years of civilian deaths — and scant accountability.
  – Afghanistan will become biggest man-made crisis if world doesn’t act, says PM Imran at OIC summit – Dawn

• Dec 14 – Ukraine – Russia Makes Serious Demands, Warns Of 'Confrontation'
• Dec 18 – Russia Details Security Demands To U.S. And NATO
  Related:
  – NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg needs to calm it down – Danial Larison / Responsible Statecraft
  – Who is to blame for the Ukraine crisis? – Glenn Diesen / RT
  – Putin and Xi plot their SWIFT escape – Pepe Escobar / The Cradle
  – UK troops will not be deployed to Ukraine to defend against Russia – BBC
  – European Union preparing full set of sanctions against Russia, says foreign policy chief – TASS
  – British, EU gas prices soar as less Russian gas expected on Friday – MSN

• Dec 16 – Turkey's Inflation Is Erdogan's Hail Mary Move To Save Himself From IMF Interference
  Related:
  When I wrote the piece one needed 15.5 Lira to buy 1 US$. On Friday it was above 17 Lira per US$. Shortly before close the Turkish Central Bank intervened and beat it back to 16.5 Lira per US$. Next week it will probably be at 18 and at year's end above 20 Lira/$.
  – Turkey lira crisis: Erdogan increases minimum wage by 50 percent after further rate cut – Middle East Eye
  – Turkish lira: What is Erdogan's new economic model for Turkey? – Middle East Eye

agitpapa @agitpapa – 14:00 UTC · Dec 18, 2021
"Made in Turkey" Renault Clio 1.0 liter model price went from 247K TL to 361K TL in ONE DAY. 361K for a crappy moped-powered Clio when the minimum wage is 4.25K. That's how the fake Turkish economy works, where all the big-ticket components are imported.
–> Renault Clio'ya bir günde 114 bin TL zam

Dimitar Bechev @DimitarBechev – 17:16 UTC · Dec 18, 2021
Queue at the Bulgarian-Turkish border as Bulgarians rush to Edirne (Odrin/Adrianoupoli) to do shopping. The lira's slump on display.
–> pic

• Dec 17 – Omicron Update
  Related:
  – See links below …

—
Other issues:

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2021-099

On Tuesday the 14th I wrote about the serious security demands Russia is making towards the U.S.

Russia fells the need to press the U.S. for new agreements because the current development of NATO sneaking into the Ukraine endangers Russia's core security interests and would otherwise lead to a military confrontation.

On Wednesday the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei A. Ryabkov met with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Karen Donfried in Moscow. Ryabkov presented her two draft treaties that Russia wants to seen implemented. On Friday both drafts were published on the Russian Foreign Ministry website.

The first treaty would be between the U.S. and the Russian Federation while the second one would be between Russia and all NATO member states. The drafts detail and formalize the demands made previously. I had summarized those in the previous post:

The statement includes this list of demands:

• No more NATO expansion towards Russia's borders. Retraction of the 2008 NATO invitation to Ukraine and Georgia.
• Legally binding guarantee that no strike systems which could target Moscow will be deployed in countries next to Russia.
• No NATO or equivalent (UK, U.S., Pl.) 'exercises' near Russian borders.
• NATO ships, planes to keep certain distances from Russian borders.
• Regular military-to-military talks.
• No intermediate-range nukes in Europe.

That the above is not a "pretty please" wishlist has since been emphasized by several Russian authorities:

The draft treaties are short but the devil is in their details and I am not yet ready to discuss them in full. They are anyway only negotiation positions that will have to be discussed between the relevant parties.

An typical example is Article 7 in the draft treaty between the U.S. and Russia:

Cont. reading: Russia Details Security Demands To U.S. And NATO

Three weeks ago the world found out that there was a new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus which had lots of mutation. The variant, named  Omicron by the World Health Organization, seemed to spread way faster than any previously known ones.

Little else was known about Omicron at that time:

There are many open question about the new variant of concern:

• How fast does this variant really spread?
• Is it more infectious?
• Does it cause a more severe illness?
• Is it more deadly?
• How well do the vaccines hold up against it?

From the current data none of those questions can yet be answered. It will take two to four weeks to find out.

Some of those questions can by now be answered. Others are still open as there seems to be contradicting evidence for either side.

• How fast does this variant really spread?

Very fast. Britain has seen a doubling of new Omicron cases every 2.5 days. In London Omicron is now the dominant variant. New York City sees a rapid rise of positive Coviod-19 tests:

Cont. reading: Omicron Update

Turkey is in for a wild ride. High inflation and negative interest rates are eating away people's income and savings.

The cause is a Hail Mary move by President Erdogan to save his political legacy. He is currently engineering a devaluation of the Turkish lira to establish a positive balance of trade. If he manages to achieve that Turkey can avoid to beg the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan. High inflation is the price that he is willing to pay for that.

Today Erdogan reinforced his move:

Turkish Central Bank on Dec. 16 has lowered 1-week repo rate by 100 basis points to 14%, in accordance with the market expectations.

The Turkish central bank blamed consumer price increases on "developments in exchange rates and supply side factors such as the rise in global food and agricultural commodity prices, supply constraints, and demand developments."

It said it would reassess "all aspects of the policy framework" over the first three month of 2022.

The Turkish central bank interest rate is now at 14% while the latest official inflation rate is at 21%. The real inflation rate is higher.

It is disingenuous for the central bank to blame consumer price increases on "developments in exchange rates". The exchange rate of a freely traded currency is determined by the real interest rate, the difference between nominal interest rates and inflation:

Cont. reading: Turkey’s Inflation Is Erdogan’s Hail Mary Move To Save Himself From IMF Interference

News & views …

Following unfounded U.S. claims of an imminent Russian invasion of the Ukraine U.S. President Joe Biden and Russia's President Vladimir Putin have held a virtual summit. Little has been released about its real content but the Russian follow up shows that the issues they talked about were deadly serious.

On December 10 the Russian Foreign Ministry published a statement that not only sounds like an ultimatum but seems to be meant as one:

We note US President Joseph Biden’s readiness expressed at the December 7, 2021 talks with President Vladimir Putin to establish a serious dialogue on issues related to ensuring the security of the Russian Federation. Such a dialogue is urgently needed today when the relations between Russia and the collective West continue to decay and have approached a critical line. At the same time, numerous loose interpretations of our position have emerged in recent days. In this connection we feel it is necessary to once again clarify the following.

Escalating a confrontation with our country is absolutely unacceptable. As a pretext, the West is using the situation in Ukraine, where it embarked on encouraging Russophobia and justifying the actions of the Kiev regime to undermine the Minsk agreements and prepare for a military scenario in Donbass.

Instead of reigning in their Ukrainian protégés, NATO countries are pushing Kiev towards aggressive steps. There can be no alternative interpretation of the increasing number of unplanned exercises by the United States and its allies in the Black Sea. NATO members’ aircraft, including strategic bombers, regularly make provocative flights and dangerous manoeuvres in close proximity to Russia’s borders. The militarisation of Ukraine’s territory and pumping it with weapons are ongoing.

The course has been chosen of drawing Ukraine into NATO, which is fraught with the deployment of strike missile systems there with a minimal flight time to Central Russia, and other destabilising weapons. Such irresponsible behaviour creates grave military risks for all parties involved, up to and including a large-scale conflict in Europe.

All the NATO action mentioned above directly endangers Russia's security. It has to cease. Some of the steps taken must be reversed and Russia will have to be given guarantees that certain measures will not be taken. The statement includes this list of demands:

Cont. reading: Ukraine – Russia Makes Serious Demands, Warns Of ‘Confrontation’

On August 26, during the chaotic U.S. evacuation from the airport in Kabul, a suicide bomber blew himself up at an entrance to the airport. As I wrote at that time:

Thursday's suicide bombing in Kabul and the following panic killed more than 150 civilians (some 30 of whom were British-Afghan), 28 Taliban fighters and 13 U.S. troops.

The U.S. military at that time falsely claimed that additional shooting from outside of the airport had killed some of the people. That however did not explain the death of the Taliban guards who where outside trying to control the masses.

A BBC correspondent in Kabul interviewed several witnesses of the incident who said that, after the suicide bomb went off, massive gunfire had come from the towers and walls around the airport. These were guarded by Afghan men who had worked in the CIA death squads (NDS 01, 02, …) and who were later flown out of the country.

In the following days more witnesses confirmed that account:

Most of the casualties of the attack were not caused by the suicide bomber but by guards on the wall and in the guard towers surrounding the airport.  "Most victims" had gun wounds to their upper bodies and the bullets had come from above. This has now been confirmed by multiple sources:

Sangar | سنګر پیکار @paykhar – 1:02 PM · Aug 28, 2021

"Most victims of #KabulAirportBlast were not killed by the blast but by bullets fired at them by the Americans."
Faisal of Kabul Lovers channel interviewed aid workers at Emergency Hospital in #Kabul and this is what they have to say:
Embedded video

U.S. media try to ignore those reports. Only deep down in a long New York Times piece one will find these lines:

For the first time, Pentagon officials publicly acknowledged the possibility that some people killed outside the airport on Thursday might have been shot by American service members after the suicide bombing.

Investigators are looking into whether the gunfire came from Americans at the gate, or from the Islamic State.

It were neither the Americans at the gate nor the Islamic State but most likely the CIA's Afghan death squads in the guard towers who caused the massacre.

On Friday the New York Times published a 20,000 words long piece from Inside the Fall of Kabul.

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It was written by Matthieu Aikins who has been independently reporting from Afghanistan since 2008. I have found his previous writings mostly trustworthy, detailed and free of the usual mainstream spin. I therefore wondered how he would describe the suicide bomb incident.

Aikins himself was involved in the evacuation when he one night accompanied a bus convoy of civilians to the airport:

Cont. reading: The Fall Of Kabul Story Misses Some Damning Details