The fake news propaganda machine never sleeps.

Thanks b

Posted by: jo6pac | Oct 1 2021 17:04 utc | 1

China takes a page out of the West's playbook in war movie production. The Battle at Lake Changjin about the Korean War (1950-53) deals with Chinese troops exploits during what's known in China as the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea. It's this observer's mind-set that echoes that of the West:

"In view of the long-lasting China-US strategic rivalry, China needs more films themed on the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, which is helpful to enhance China's cohesion and confidence, said Song Luzheng, an international relations researcher at the China Institute of Fudan University in Shanghai." [My Emphasis]

Oh, the film is a huge success, smashing all Chinese box office records. IMO, waking the Dragon will be seen as a huge mistake by the West that ushered in its downfall.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 1 2021 17:15 utc | 2

Isn't it curious, dear MoA readers, that the greatest "fact checking" promoters against "fake news" (AP, Reuters) are coincidentally the largest fake news producers?

Posted by: lyy | Oct 1 2021 17:54 utc | 3

"China has sent planes toward the island it claims as part of its territory..."

Except for periods of foreign occupation, has Taiwan not always been understood as Chinese territory? When Chiang Kai-shek retreated there with his remnant forces after defeat in the Civil War, it was as a retrenchment in lieu of further fighting and not as a declaration of an independent state. His Nationalist movement had expected to later win a renewed civil war and regain the mainland. Taiwan's alleged independent status is largely a contemporary revisionist concept being used as a wedge for provocations by, essentially, the caucasian west (i.e. USA, Lithuania, etc). Fake news propaganda, all of it.

Posted by: jayc | Oct 1 2021 17:59 utc | 4

Another nice piece of journalism by b! Thank you. I take particular note of the fact that b found it necessary to check on details while SCMP did not. SCMP is a renounced English language newspaper in Asia if not the most looked up to. It supposedly has a large staff, wide-spectrum resources/contacts, and expertise on geopolitics. The fact that they wouldn't bother to check details like the lone wolf b would, speaks volume of their complicity and propagandist leanings. Shame on them, and they have been Hong Kong's English newspaper for nearly 120 years. Since about 15 years ago I've considered them the English version of Apple Daily.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 1 2021 18:01 utc | 5

This debate about ADIZ is immaterial because Taiwan is not a nation-state. It's a province of the PRC. Therefore, there's no Taiwanese ADIZ - only Chinese (i.e. PRC) ADIZ.

Posted by: vk | Oct 1 2021 18:03 utc | 6

Excellent description of the ADIZ (not ADZ) situation, also the fact that Taiwan's ADIZ covers more mainland China territory than Taiwan provincial territory. There is no international law on ADIZ -- every country does its own thing.
The ADIZ concept was pioneered by the US years ago, and in the US case it only requires commercial flights landing in the US to identify themselves. The US has a policy of not requiring contact with military flights, and it does not identify when its military planes go into other ADIZs, e.g. China.
Taiwan scrambling its planes every day is stupid, but it serves China because Taiwan's aircraft fleet and the morale of its pilots are suffering mightily. China is flying over international waters. . . .How about some 'freedom of navigation' from China.
Just to emphasize the US position on the ADIZ zone it pioneered, this from SecState Kerry, Nov 23, 2013 after China established its East China Sea ADIZ.

We don't support efforts by any State to apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter its national airspace. The United States does not apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter U.S. national airspace. We urge China not to implement its threat to take action against aircraft that do not identify themselves or obey orders from Beijing. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 1 2021 18:20 utc | 7

That said all three fulfill their intended purpose. They propagandize those who read them against China by depicting normal military training of China's armed forces as aggression against its neighbors.

A critical inflection point identified by US war planners for years is approaching, where China’s economic and military might will irreversibly surpass the US and the center of global power will likewise irreversibly shift from West to East creating a global balance of power unseen for centuries. A closing window of opportunity estimated to close between 2025 and 2030 allows the US to carry out a limited war with China, resulting in a favorable outcome for Washington. Beyond that, the US will find itself outmatched and any attempt to curb China’s rise rendered futile.

The propaganda war, and the war itself this propaganda aims to justify and rally support for, is unmistakable, particularly for those who have witnessed similar buildups ahead of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, or US-led military interventions in nations like Libya and Syria from 2011 onward.

A recent 60 Minutes Australia segment titled, “War with China: Are we closer than we think?,” presented an amalgamation of this ongoing propaganda used to vilify the Chinese government, dehumanize the Chinese people, and create sufficient anger, fear, paranoia, distrust, and hatred in hearts and minds across the planet to justify what would be for the 21st century, an unprecedented war.

US War Plans with China Taking Shape

Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2021 18:20 utc | 8

The reporting is so (deliberately?) sloppy that a substantial number of people think that China is repeatedly flying military aircraft directly over the island, not over the corner of an arbitrary zone declared by the folks in Taipei.

Posted by: Billb | Oct 1 2021 18:34 utc | 9

I would like to point out two points:

1) China is currently not intruding into Taiwan's ADZ because China has yet to decide on militarily unifying Taiwan. When they do they would not legitimize the presence of this ADZ. That day is drawing near.

2) I would raise the question of what legitimize any claim of sovereign territory? I know not of any written or verbalized documentations by any so-called "creator" of this globe to have granted any piece of land to any human entities. It is only by agreements that parties adhere to the present demarcation of boundaries, and those agreements are historically based. By all historical records and understandings, SCS has been Chinese territories since humans started writing records and documents. Scarborough Reef (Huangyen Island) may be closer to Philippines but all records prove China's claim of sovereignty. As Deng Xiaoping told Aquino back in the 1980's that if she thought Huangyen Island is close to Philippine, then China believes Philippine is close to China and therefore China can claim sovereignty over Philippine. Dongsha may or may not be closer to Taiwan than China. Closeness is not a criterion. Since China considers Taiwan as part of its sovereignty, Dongsha's sovereign status is not an issue. But if one day China recognizes Taiwan as a separate nation, then historical record would side with China's sovereignty claim of Dongsha over Taiwan's. But that day is moot, as China would never cede any part of SCS to anyone and has no need to argue on closeness. Any rogue nation (or alliance) who fancies taking any part of SCS from China would ultimately have to resort to laws of the jungle, and I see less and less possibilities that any entity would take that route from here onwards.

For the first quarter century after CPC took over China's governance, China doesn't have a navy to speak of, and had no choice but to watch foreign forces taking liberty in SCS in silence. Since the 80's, China began to challenge any such intrusions. Today, China has absolutely no tolerance on such violations, including the intrusion on Diayutai. If the laws of jungle is imposed, China is ready to face it head on.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 1 2021 18:36 utc | 10

Why negative framing about China in Financial Empire’s media?

Nations in the West are a Phony Ponzi Private Plantation of the Private Imperialist Oligarchy.

Please name a nation in the West that has issued sovereign money over what time period in the last three centuries. Is the populace awake? The U$A has been at war for over 225 of its nearly 245 year history. Why? It is a suzerainty of the Private Imperialist (Money) Oligarchy. What key characteristics emerge from its history? The Empire sees China’s sovereign money, economic & monetary system as an existential threat, as nations will adopt it and start becoming sovereign. Russia wants to be sovereign in all dimensions too. So the global conflict is between:

Sovereignty vs Suzerainty

Sovereign money vs private money

Why are you using private money? Why be enslaved in a private plantation?

The Empire wants to frame China negatively as autocratic, aggressive, abusive,... through its corporate-controlled media. Please understand the Empire’s media structure and set your expectations appropriately. The Empire uses its media to propagandize and justify its actions.

https://swprs.org/the-propaganda-multiplier/

The Financial Empire is out of luck, knows its position is precarious and is in a panic mode. The global conflict is coming way sooner. The Financial Empire wouldn’t exist beyond 2024. Why?

You want your nation to be a vassal or sovereign?

Posted by: Max | Oct 1 2021 18:36 utc | 11

@ DS 8
re: A closing window of opportunity estimated to close between 2025 and 2030 allows the US to carry out a limited war with China . . .blah blah
That piece of garbage was written by Brian Berletic, "who is a Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer." In no way could the US "carry out" (whatever that means -- it's not a professional military term) a limited war with China.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 1 2021 18:44 utc | 12

@8 Thanks for that. Some barflies may be familiar with Tony Cartalucci

https://youtu.be/gFC9p-79Sks

Posted by: dh | Oct 1 2021 18:49 utc | 13

@12 I think Berletic/Cartalucci would agree with you Don. I saw the article as a warning.

Posted by: dh | Oct 1 2021 18:53 utc | 14

If the US warmongers want to provoke a war with China, I would say go to it. The US will lose. And in doing it will discover their mistake. You can't defeat China's economic dominance by military action.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 1 2021 18:59 utc | 15

In no way could the US "carry out" (whatever that means -- it's not a professional military term) a limited war with China

On the contrary, no-ones talking of a land invasion of China, just the blocking of the SLOC which would have a catastrophic effect on China’s economy.

Andrei Martyanov posted an interesting video on US capability to do just that

Some explanations

Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2021 19:01 utc | 16

@ dh 14
I saw the article as a warning.
I saw the article as a (mistaken) claim that the should take advantage of a window of opportunity and attack China.
US War Plans with China Taking Shape . . .China’s massive trade networks ensure its economy has plenty of resources. It should become the largest economy. And only a war of aggression, chosen to be waged by Washington will stop this from coming to pass.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 1 2021 19:10 utc | 17

@ Oriental Voice (# 10), China can win over Taiwan economically. When China’s gdp is greater than U$A’s and its gdp per capita better, Taiwan will follow like France/Poland.

Here are Henry Kissinger and George Schultz at the Asia Society event this year stating that Hong Kong and Taiwan are part of China and that has been U$A’s position and it is on the record.

Empire’s Orcs (individuals without conscience) rarely challenge their masters and participate in its wars. If they act irrationally and irresponsibly then they will pay Empire’s liabilities. The Balance sheet will be balanced!

Posted by: Max | Oct 1 2021 19:12 utc | 18

@17 Different strokes for different folks I guess. I thought the writer was drawing attention to some plans for a limited, non-nuclear war with China. Watching the interview with him @13 I got the impression he sees it as total insanity. Perhaps he could have spelled it out better.

Posted by: dh | Oct 1 2021 19:18 utc | 19

And only a war of aggression, chosen to be waged by Washington will stop this from coming to pass.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 1 2021 19:10 utc | 17

That idea will not work, as Don understands. US hegemony can't be regained by military action.

Posted by: Laguerre | Oct 1 2021 19:25 utc | 20

Tom Fowdy exposes further Western propaganda, this time about China's BRI:

"A new ‘study’ has concluded that Beijing’s huge worldwide investment programme is 'losing momentum' as debts mount. But a closer inspection of the facts tells a different story.

"Western mainstream media yesterday began posting in tandem a purported ‘study’ from which Reuters spun its own headline: ‘China's Belt and Road plans losing momentum as opposition, debt mount – study’.

"The study, as noted in the report, was sponsored by the US government through the surrogate of its own international relief [and Color Revolution sponsoring] agency, USAID, and proceeded to present the usual cliches that China was maliciously saddling nations in “hidden debt,” encouraging corruption and promulgating environmental damage in participating countries, and claimed that opposition to the investment programme was mounting."

Fowdy is good at digging, but in this case he didn't need to expend much effort:

"It is strange that large scale emphasis on that [forced labor] has disappeared, and now the agenda is being turned toward trashing the Belt and Road Initiative. But we knew this was coming. When the US Senate prepared its ‘strategic competition’ bill earlier this year, it notably earmarked $300 million in funding to deliberately spread 'negative news' regarding 'the impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative' throughout the world. To no surprise whatsoever, this is what the newly published BRI ‘study’ is doing, and it's a sign of things to come."

Fowdy then tells us some of the lies being used to discredit. He follows that with facts, a category of information Western media doesn't appear to use in its reports anymore:

"Here’s a flavor of what they aren't telling you. A study from Refinitiv, one of the world’s largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure, found that, as of 2019, over $516 billion worth of BRI projects had been completed with a cancellation rate of just 0.3%. It counted 2,631 different projects across the world, in more than 120 countries.

"To name but a few examples of BRI successes: China finished a metro system in Lahore, Pakistan, last year, opened a 1000MW nuclear power plant in the same country in May, is building Africa's largest building in Egypt, as well as the largest building in South Asia (the Lotus Tower in Colombo, Sri Lanka), and is on the verge of finishing the China-Laos High Speed Railway. Multiple direct transcontinental railway routes through China to Europe have also been opened.

"The study by Refinitiv, which is headquartered in the UK, also proceeded to pour cold water over the idea of a ‘debt trap’ for participating countries, noting that a review of 40 cases of China’s external debt renegotiations painted a different picture. The BRI is not being imposed, it is not dogmatic and nor is it monolithic, and it is more flexible and pragmatic than it’s given credit for." [My Emphasis]

In other words, the BRI is essentially the opposite of the Washington Consensus's Structural Adjustment Programs which impose development crippling austerity and serve to enrich the global 1%. Fowdy closes by exposing the utter bankruptcy of the Outlaw US Empire's attempts to counter the long overdue development of the Global South:

"The idea that developing countries blindly and naively accept one-sided terms, jump into self-penalizing agreements, and thus don’t know ‘what their best interests are’, is insulting. It is promoting, as usual, the idea of ‘Western saviorism’, one that has been used as a justification for colonialism and domination for centuries. There is a staggering lack of historical self-awareness and sensitivity in those who advocate such claims."

In about 30 years, the Global South will be on par with many Western nations, while surpassing those destroyed by Neoliberalism. And ya know, there really aren't very many Western Nations, and very few of them are actually independent.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 1 2021 19:25 utc | 21

Down South @16:

How would a blockade of China's trade route bring about a catastrophic effect on China? That blockade was in place throughout most of the 50's and 60's. China was much poorer and industrially less developed then, yet it not only survived, it grew on average 9% GDP per annum. Today China is self-sufficient in all sectors, sufficiency meaning minimal requirements met. Any deficiency in raw material or industrial imports only lessens capacity for export purposes. We are seeing China dabbling with deliberate reduction in production for export purposes right now, as they are implementing an electric supply shortage. I don't think they considered reduced export as suffocation of their economy.

Used to be China's economy is 37% dependent on international trade. Today, that figure is down to the mid-20's percentage. Twenty percent of their export goes to USA. Without that import from China, I wonder what calamity will USA see this Christmas season. I believe you said you are from South Africa. I understand most of consumer product imports in Africa are from China. Stoppage of that flow would be panful to Africans too, I surmise.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 1 2021 19:25 utc | 22

There is the "Republic of China", and there is the "People's Republic of China".

Are they not both "china"?

There is no way the Republic of China could win a fight against the People's Republic of China

There is no way the People's Republic of China will bomb the microchip foundries in the Republic of China that is the very life blood of its technological development.

Posted by: Carl D | Oct 1 2021 19:26 utc | 23

Max why do you show up in every comments section and just barf up the same comment about "financial empire"?

Posted by: Ringo | Oct 1 2021 19:26 utc | 24

@22 If the US is really serious about hurting the Chinese economy they could shut down all the Walmarts. It might not be popular with US consumers though.

Posted by: dh | Oct 1 2021 19:32 utc | 25

Max @18:

China is not waiting for economic dominance over Taiwan to push the unification envelope. China simply don't care about taking up governance over people who are brainwashed to be hostile to them. Only that China, in principle, would not give up sovereignty over the territory called Taiwan. The present situation is fine with them.

China's economy has exceeded USA's long ago--IMF and World Bank said 2014, but my understanding is 2010 or earlier. Just that the way GDP is calculated, the USA's mode of non-productive sectors are given weights that is not deserved. How does the legal sector produced 10% of what people in the USA consume? How does a business consultant's 1 hour of free-wheeling opinion voicing produce $1,000 worth of goods and services? USA's 21+ $T of GDP is Lucy In The Sky, a hallucination.

Taiwan people are just plain stupid, brainwashed, and clinching to what they consider as the last straw. They know it's a straw, but they don't know that this straw is still effective only because China doesn't give a damn about them.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 1 2021 19:37 utc | 26

Geoeconomics fueling Geopolitics is what will frame international relations as humanity continues to mature and evolve. Hudson has also framed that as a contest between financialized neoliberal nations controlled by oligarchies of the 1% versus Industrialized collective oriented nations governed by various forms of democracy. The collective nations are global but are currently most noticeable in Eurasia and are flocking to the SCO's banner. As long as those nations maintain their financial systems as public utilities, they'll have nothing to fear from the neoliberal nations who will eventually succumb to that system's parasitism. It should be noted that the GDPs of the neoliberal nations are grossly overstated because all the negative parasitic activity is counted as a positive instead of the negative it is in reality. The political jousting over the debt/budget issue within the Outlaw US Empire provides a glimpse of the chaos beginning to unfold there.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 1 2021 19:45 utc | 27

Here's a live display of shipping activity in east Asia. The US will block this and not pay a heavy price for doing so? The two dozen US military bases in Japan and half a dozen in South Korea won't be leveled? Plus all US Navy surface ships at sea?

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 1 2021 19:51 utc | 28

The Taiwan army is pathetic, BTW. It's composed of a professional cadre with the ranks filled by conscripts with four months of "training." They recently changed the format, now it's five weeks basic training then the next 11 weeks "familiarizing themselves with combat operations and field conditions" by assignment to a unit.
They really feel that they don't need to get with the program because the US will save them, which Washington has shown no interest in. The US program is to give Taiwan the gear to defend itself, which of course is far outweighed from China's capability. One disadvantage of the US Navy sailing to and fro nearby is that it reinforces the Taiwanese tendency to slack off.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 1 2021 20:10 utc | 29

@ Oriental Voice (# 26), thanks for your opinion. However, there is good collaboration and cooperation between Chinese & Taiwanese companies and people. Hopefully, they will maintain peace and prosperity, and stay away from negative forces.

Posted by: Max | Oct 1 2021 20:12 utc | 30

@ CD 23
There is the "Republic of China", and there is the "People's Republic of China". Are they not both "china"?

Yes. The situation is silly. For twenty years, according to the US, the ROC China government was in Taipei. Now the ROC is an undescribed entity which must be supported to remain separate from China, with the ROC "president" saying the ROC is a country.
. . ."President" Tsai on BBC on January 14, 2020. . .

Well, the idea is that we don't have a need to declare ourselves an independent state. We are an independent country already and we call ourselves the Republic of China (Taiwan), and we have our own system of running the country, and we do have a government and we have a military, and we have elections, like the presidential elections that you have witnessed. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 1 2021 20:22 utc | 31

@28 Wow the Pacific Fleet is going to be busy. I guess they'll be inspecting every ship that goes through the Straits of Malacca. They'll need to keep an eye on Suez and Panama too incase someone tries to sneak through.

Posted by: dh | Oct 1 2021 20:23 utc | 32

And that's one of hundreds of such reports. A vast tapestry of false flags. Thanks b, an elegant, concise demolition of MSM incompetence and shillery.

Posted by: Patroklos | Oct 1 2021 20:28 utc | 33

War with China;

There is a sort of conceptual mistake when talking about US "capabilities" and warmongering. It is not the Military who want a "sort of" war, but the military-industrial complex, who need credible enemies.
IT is the Oligarchic owners of defense industries who want continued hostilities. As long as they can make cash. (Or rather, relieve the sheeple of their woolly coats - "for their own good").

Most Generals go throught the "revolving doors" of industry-think*tank-Military, sometimes Political etc. So they are on both sides at the same time, they are not separate identities.

The Industry needs to be able to produce the "ultimate military rabbit out of the hat projects", lots of them, at an enviable cost-overrun. ..... and to get rid of most of the product rapidly afterwards, to enable "replacement".

For this they need "threats" agogo. Built in obsolescence and fruitful and intimate connections and relations with budgetteers.
*

Talking about budgets, NATO for 2021 defense spending;
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-much-nato-countries-spend-defense

US defense spending $811 billion. Not including other "secret" or "war" budgets. (The Afghanistan spending was concealed as War budget, and was independent from the standard defense budget. This will need "replacing" with another "war" situation for budget purposes)
The other NATO countries => $363 billion
Total $1.2 trillion per year. (Known)
(Turkey is the ONLY NATO country which has reduced it's defense spending by 4%)
*

So we come back to China, Russia, NKorea, Iran as "credible" threats, even if they are not. As well as the others; Venezuela, Cuba etc. as walk-on bit-players to keep the propaganda tirade on the boil.

Whether there is a war with China or not, it must be profitable. The propaganda (as per b's post) is only marketing for pre-emptive expenditure on the whole militarized industry. Advertising exageration?

Posted by: Stonebird | Oct 1 2021 20:50 utc | 34

thanks b... this fake news is a prominent feature of the western msm at this point...

@ dh.. love the humour... keep it up!

Posted by: james | Oct 1 2021 21:18 utc | 35

These 'news agencies' are likely the same propagandist liars that fed us the fake Gulf of Tonkin incident way back in the '60s when in fact the best news of the time was the USS Forrestal blaze that arose from the USA shooting itself in the foot.

These news 'agencies' are unbelievable sources for anything real.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Oct 1 2021 21:19 utc | 36

As I keep saying 'they' already have all the money. They don't need any more. The only thing that actually motivates them is a giant shared bubble of psychopathy. The Pervasive Shadow Dictatorship (PSD) of the USSA is comprised of lunatics. It really is that simple.

Posted by: blues | Oct 1 2021 21:29 utc | 37

Down South #8

The state of Australia is not 'preparing the populace for a future war with China'.

The state of OZ is fear mongering its people, diverting their attention from real time mis-allocation of the nations meager wealth.

They are simply being suckered by Uncle Sams pimps in their parliament.

There is little to none Australian major infrastructure plans let alone projects underway. The pimps have been successful in that the people daily run about in fear of a Chinaman, a Russian, a virus, an anti vaxxer, a drought, a bushfire... And I guess the ABC, Reuters, Murdoch ;/ and all the other MSM prattle on and whine while the ship of state itself is the enemy.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Oct 1 2021 21:39 utc | 38

Don Bacon #28

Thank you for the link to marine traffic. My immediate thought from that first glimpse was ah! that's why China and its neighbours are busy building terrestrial rail and road systems. Equally obvious why Reuters an other liars are forever pumping the fear china, fear debt bondage mantra.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Oct 1 2021 21:45 utc | 39

There will be war between the empire and China. It is the Thucydides trap, and there is no way out of it. In fact, the first shots of that war have already been fired with the empire using biological WMDs against China. The only questions about the war are when does the shooting start and how bad does it have to get before the empire concedes... assuming the empire is quickly convinced that defeat is inevitable and so doesn't escalate to nuclear weapons.

There has been discussion about the empire marshaling its gimps on the front line; trying to get Japan and Australia and not-so-Great Britain to take point in the fight. I am of mixed opinion as to whether this is good or bad. On the one hand it helps legitimize the empire's aggression and makes the forces arrayed against China seem stronger. As well, if a country like Australia is the first to take a punch from China for the empire the optics will be bad. It would look like China being a bully and kicking America's yappy pet chihuahua. Furthermore, I am quite fond of Japan and the Japanese people and I'd rather not see them hurt again.

On the other hand, if combat operations start directly between the US and China then it is a forgone conclusion that the Chinese will pull their punches, at least in the beginning. The US, for its part, will go right for the kill from the very start. This means that China will take a terrible beating while they come to realize that the fight is serious and will not be gentlemanly. If the fight starts with Japan this will not be an issue. Japan has a karmic debt to China and the Chinese will not pull their punches in a fight with them. China will come down on Japan like an avalanche and deal Japan a very swift and decisive defeat. This decisiveness is crucial as it will help convince the empire that further aggression is futile and thereby help prevent escalation by the empire. While it would pain me to see that happen to Japan , it is one of the best outcomes that prevents things from spiraling to Armageddon.

Of course, the prefect outcome would be for Britain to take the lead in the fight and get instantly and utterly crushed, as the British also have a deep karmic debt that the Chinese wouldn't hesitate to collect on. That would have the same benefit of interrupting the empire's escalation, but would spare the Japanese and possibly even teach the British some humility (yeah, lots of luck with that last, right?).

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 1 2021 21:52 utc | 40

@16, @22 etc
re: naval blockade by either side

Sure, the various navies spend a lifetime planning for this, in the same way that USSR and NATO worked out how to lay down a 1000 km line of tactical nukes cutting across Central Europe, just so that noone can say they are less convincing in their preparations than the other side.

It's completely unrealistic in the time horizons that are discussed here (2030). If really truly pressed, both sides can retaliate and shut down an irreplaceable portion of world commerce.

Posted by: ptb | Oct 1 2021 22:01 utc | 41

The Australian Broadcasting Corp (ABC is funded in whole or in part by the Australian Government) this Sat morning is using its own headline as the lead in to the same cut/paste AP/rueter article.

I'd expect most people would not bother to click/read an article about Taiwan.
The headline carries the message though.

China flexes military muscles on National Day with two sorties over Taiwan

Posted by: Dim sim | Oct 1 2021 22:39 utc | 42

William Gruff @40:

I have to agree with you on Thucydides Trap. Interesting that you consider Covid as the first salvo the Empire fired. Actually China suspected SARS was the first salvo. That's one reason they put effort into researching corona virus and means of containing such viral spread. Unlike Russia, they won't openly accuse the Empire of biological warfare without possession of the smoking gun, but they will be very alert to future implantation of biological kinks coming from Empire's direction.

Meanwhile, you're also right that the Empire has been maneuvering to goat their lackeys to serve as canon fodders against China, even with some success. India is a prominent example. They would love for Japan to go head-on against China--the more Japanese casualties, the better narrative to build global mobilization of forces against China. Interesting that you sentimentally like Japanese and abhors the idea of them getting hurt. I guess you're not informed of the extent of evil the Japanese had done around a century ago. Have you heard of the Nanjing Massacre, the 3-totality strategy (total plunder, total burning, total killing) in sweeping villages to ensure Chinese resistances would get no refurbishments, Project 731-germ warfare??? In fact, it was Project 731's research dossier that started Fort Detrick lab. I suppose you consider that to be 75-100 years old past, and one should forgive and forget. Well, I can't. Especially not when today's Japan can't even come clean and admit to what they have done. I don't see a reborn Japan.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 1 2021 22:45 utc | 43

How times change! It was less than a hundred years ago that the US Marines, the "China Marines," were occupying China. More here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 1 2021 22:55 utc | 44

An air defence zone is the airspace around and outside territorial airspace where unknown aeroplanes are perceived to be a potential threat and are tracked by military radars and possibly shadowed by interceptors. It is *not* territorial airspace and aircraft in the ADZ can *not* be shot down unless they initiate hostile action. Those NATO and Soviet aircraft that each other's sides "intercept" and "escort"? They're in the ADZs.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Oct 1 2021 23:09 utc | 45

well done journalism barkeep. I read somewhere that 70%+ of all news one sees in papers, hears on radio and watches on TV comes from Reuters, AP, and AFP. It's very easy to slip 'news' into the mix. Empire's propaganda is ubiquitous and relentless. Nothing about anything is to be trusted. Period.

Posted by: gottlieb | Oct 1 2021 23:17 utc | 46

The Thucydides Trap was again debunked by Dr. Hudson in his recent interview with Max Keiser. Even the namesake of this hypothesis debunked it oh so long ago. The antagonists are supposed to be copycat rivals to each other, but that wasn't the case with Athens or Sparta then, nor is it the case between China and the Outlaw US Empire today. At the time, Athens was a nominal democracy; Sparta was ruled by a King and an oligarchy. Today, the Outlaw US Empire is a Neoliberal Oligarchy while China's a Social-Democratic nation--when both are objectively examined. Geoeconomically, the Empire's dependent on China, not the other way round. As was overtly made very clear at the Alaska meeting, the Outlaw US Empire cannot deal with China from a position of strength either geopolitically or geoeconomically. As I wrote a few days ago to zero objections, China and the Eurasian Bloc coalescing around it when seen in relation to the Outlaw US Empire differs little than how Yamamoto saw the dynamic between Japan and the USA prior to Pearl Harbor--Japan was sure to lose no matter what it did. And yet again, several members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff have publicly stated that they want no war with either Russia or China. They're what Martyanov calls realists who understand the genuine balance of power no longer favors the Outlaw US Empire even when NATO is added.

Biden and the Ds just as Trump and the Rs desperately need his version of MAGA--Build Back Better--to become reality. But with the USA geoeconomically dependent on China, how is it ever going to accomplish that if it starts a war with its primary supplier if the funds ever get allocated?! Yes, the Merchants of Death constantly need an existential threat to justify their existence, and that's the special interest fueling the war talk that the generals refute.

Then, IMO, this new set of polling results must be added to the equation--public sentiment for war against some other nation not named Congress doesn't exist:

"Arguably more disturbing were the implications for the 'other' party if secession did not occur. A sizable majority of both Trump and Biden voters agreed with the statement that 'if our society so wants, it is the duty of every true citizen to help eliminate the evil that poisons our country from within.'"

That ought to scare just a few Neoliberal grifters as the public agrees without knowing that it does on the very source of the problem being domestic. Soon, both sides will know they agree, and 2022 elections are going to see lots of fireworks.

Posted by: karlof1 | Oct 1 2021 23:22 utc | 47

Falun Gong / Epoch Times have the Anti-Beijing Propaganda Set Up at ZeroHedge.

These groups harass people entering/leaving CHN Consulates - especially those who look/dress like they're Visiting from CHN. I've seen them at it. Bad Cult Mongers.

They also FakeNews'd Wuhan related SARS-COV2 Articles.

"Tyler Durdens" even Launder Tyler-Submitted Articles for them by Sourcing FG/ET TWTR+SubjMatter Commentators.

I called them out on it and got Banned; but that Site have been on a Terminal Decline as Smarter, Contributing Commentators leave or minimize their presence.

With AIPAC-Gatestone handling the Zionistic Sourced Anti-MENA-Migranvader Jingoism Articles, ZH are done for.

Posted by: IronForge | Oct 2 2021 0:19 utc | 48

@Down South (16) "On the contrary, no-ones talking of a land invasion of China, just the blocking of the SLOC which would have a catastrophic effect on China’s economy."

Now hold on a second. Given that the U.S. and most countries in the world are heavily dependent on China for manufactured goods (both finished and unfinished), what would be the effect of cutting off Chinese commercial shipping on the world's economy? Well, I'll tell you, it would be a depression followed by mass outrage that the U.S. government could have deliberately brought such a catastrophe down upon everyone's heads. Are U.S. foreign and economic planners that stupid? They definitely are stupid, but I doubt that the actual owners (George Carlin's word) of the country would stand for it.

Posted by: Rob | Oct 2 2021 0:20 utc | 49

Oriental Voice @43

No, I am very much aware of the horrible things Japan did to China from a century ago up until the Japanese were defeated. That is why I said they had a huge karmic debt to China that is yet to be paid, and why the Chinese will not hesitate to kick their asses if a fight starts. At the same time, I think Japan is one of the few countries to do evil that learned their lesson after being occupied by barbarians. This isn't to say that I think they don't deserve to get their asses kicked if they pick a fight with China for the empire. They absolutely do deserve to lose, and badly, if they make such a mistake. I'm just hoping the Japanese don't make such a mistake again.

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 2 2021 1:12 utc | 50

@ Posted by: Carl D | Oct 1 2021 19:26 utc | 23

If there's no way the PRC will ever bomb Taiwan because it will lose the microchip factory, then, by the same logic, the USA will never wage a hot war against the PRC because it will lose all of those manufactured products.

Therefore, a hot war is out of the picture.

As for your question of why Taiwan calls itself ROC: Taiwan never declared independence. It considers itself the only China, therefore it considers the entire Mainland China its own territory, in the hands of the Communists.

Posted by: vk | Oct 2 2021 1:14 utc | 51

blues | Oct 1 2021 21:29 utc | 37

...As I keep saying 'they' already have all the money. They don't need any more. ...

As the Mad Hatter said, "Exactly so, as the things get used up".

'They' just move on to the next pile of resources, whether life-forms or dead stuff... whatever works to maintain their status or fill the time available.

What could be more natural!...the ultimate justification. God blessed the child who has his own pile.

Think outside "the box"? What box? Even being curious would be ruinous. So what chance has reason? Or logic? Or listening? Thus the futility of words.

Even the wise Andrew Carnegie who vowed to give it all up if he could reach a pile of $50,000...passed the marker and kept on...and on..and still on perpetually as he morphed into a foundation/trust.

Posted by: chu teh | Oct 2 2021 1:17 utc | 52

@ Down South

“A closing window of opportunity estimated to close between 2025 and 2030 allows the US to carry out a limited war with China, resulting in a favorable outcome for Washington. Beyond that, the US will find itself outmatched and any attempt to curb China’s rise rendered futile.”

This is chilling. In light of this, the current coercive and zealous covid vaccination program in the Anglosphere can also be seen as drills preparing for possible biological warfare. If the US mainland and Australia are relatively protected in the eventuality of this conventional war with China, biological warfare (regardless of who initiates it) creates vulnerability.

Thanks for the link. It all makes sense now: why California is mandating vaccination for school children when their risk of dying from covid is 2 per million infected.

Posted by: Moses | Oct 2 2021 1:22 utc | 53

jayc @ 4 stated;

"
"Taiwan's alleged independent status is largely a contemporary revisionist concept being used as a wedge for provocations by, essentially, the caucasian west (i.e. USA, Lithuania, etc). Fake news propaganda, all of it."

Bingo, jayc!!!

Taiwan for centuries, has been part of China. The "cold war" thinking changed that reality..

Posted by: vetinLA | Oct 2 2021 1:29 utc | 54

Taiwan is part of China. Both governments' (Beijing and Taipei) Constitutions states that fact.

So, there are no issues, problems or arguments on any of these: ADZ, ADIZ or any other matters. PRC airplanes can fly or land anywhere, including Taipei, period.

Posted by: d dan | Oct 2 2021 1:31 utc | 55

@karlof1 47
Agree, the Thucydides Trap is Claptrap
The basic rules of warfare include attacking an enemy where it is weakest, and China in its dominated area is strong, too strong. Considering that the US hasn't won even one of its many wars recently, against peasants, it hardly has a chance against a motivated well-armed enemy in its own territory, no matter what some ancient Greeks may have said.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 2 2021 1:37 utc | 56

@ Moses 53
This is chilling
This was written by a nobody expressing nothing of value. Just move along.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 2 2021 1:39 utc | 57

I refuse to believe war with China will happen. The few malignant oligarchs that own most of the globe's finances, IMO, won't permit it. They'll sow fear of a great war, to help stampede the cattle in the right direction, but, as of now, they own most govts. around the globe. They don't want their massive profits disturbed.

China, at this moment, with their BRI plan is a threat to them, because they actually HELP the people of the nations they're in, have a better life, through infrastructure improvement, instead of sheering them financially.

Enter, the massive propganda war against China..

Posted by: vetinLA | Oct 2 2021 1:58 utc | 58

karlof1 @ 21; Another great synopsis, kudos..

Posted by: vetinLA | Oct 2 2021 2:00 utc | 59

d dan #55

Taiwan is part of China. Both governments' (Beijing and Taipei) Constitutions states that fact.

So, there are no issues, problems or arguments on any of these: ADZ, ADIZ or any other matters. PRC airplanes can fly or land anywhere, including Taipei, period.

Exactly and thank you. This is what the press stenographers are distracting you from.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Oct 2 2021 2:03 utc | 60

ut @ 60 noted;;

"This is the real news of our times, not the drivel pumped out by and then rerun by its handmaidens of deceit."

F yes!!!

Posted by: vetinLA | Oct 2 2021 2:08 utc | 61

To b and Barflies,

I have been using the moniker "CarlD" for quite a few years now.

I am quite surprised to witness the use of "Carl D" by a newcomer to this bar and
wish he would differentiate his pseudonym from mine.

Thanks in advance

Posted by: CarlD | Oct 2 2021 2:51 utc | 62

China sends largest-ever incursion into Taiwan airspace
Global News, Canada. No clarification that it is not actually Taiwan's airspace.

Posted by: Keith McClary | Oct 2 2021 2:52 utc | 63

Don Bacon @57

Your tone is so certain, when the future is anything but?
Many events of today and how the Anglosphere is behaving look very much like a prelude if not outright preparation for a war of aggression, possibly with a Gulf of Tonkin like setup.

It is vital to keep one’s eyes open, and not be mislead by one’s biases, beliefs, hopes and aspirations. The very purpose of propaganda after all is to deceive and create a false reality. And the fact that propaganda is needed is in itself proof of the need for a big lie.

Posted by: Moses | Oct 2 2021 2:59 utc | 64

@ Moses 64
My point was that what you are concerned about was written by an unqualified person, and therefore should be disregarded. I share your reluctance to predict the future, but any situation appraisals ought to occur by qualified people with valid information using known facts.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 2 2021 3:58 utc | 65

@b

As ADIZ are unilateral 'pretty please' requests with no binding power they are regularly ignored.

Yep. The US ignores China's ADIZ over the East China Sea, and Japan refuses to file flight plans.

In addition, a large part of Taiwan's ADIZ is actually over mainland China. Why does mainland China need anyone's permission to fly over its own territory?

Posted by: Cyril | Oct 2 2021 5:00 utc | 66

...
The propaganda war, and the war itself this propaganda aims to justify and rally support for, is unmistakable, particularly for those who have witnessed similar buildups ahead of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, or US-led military interventions in nations like Libya and Syria from 2011 onward.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 1 2021 18:20 utc | 8

Conveniently forgetting, of course, that the chickenshit Yankees won't dare attack China, Russia, or Iran, until they've tricked them into partially disarming, which is what preceded US/NATO's unprovoked genocidal vandalism assaults on Iraq, Syria and Libya under the banner of the Fake War of Terror, for the Jews.

Wasn't anyone listening when Trump came to office complaining about AmeriKKKa pissing $6 Trillion against the wall fighting wars in the Middle East?
and
"We could have rebuilt this country twice!"

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Oct 2 2021 5:02 utc | 67

@Oriental Voice | Oct 1 2021 18:01 utc | 5

The fact that they wouldn't bother to check details like the lone wolf b would, speaks volume of their complicity and propagandist leanings.

I doubt SCMP were reluctant to check. I think they deliberately wanted to lie.

Posted by: Cyril | Oct 2 2021 5:06 utc | 68

The flight path of the Chinese nuclear bombers can be seen in the last graph.

I would say that this kind of saber rattling by Bejing is for Taiwan approximately as threatening as the annual US-South Korean miliitary drills are for North Korea.

Posted by: m | Oct 2 2021 5:20 utc | 69

Not only Taiwan is making extraordinary extra territorial claims: here about the Anambas and Natura islands (see SCS map above), 1720 km from the nearest Chinese (Hainan) mainland coast and 227 km from the nearest Indonesian land. Based on ancient fishing practices Beijing wants to claim territorial and mineral rights too on these.

Until recently, despite some tensions resulting from competing territorial claims, Indonesia declared itself as a non-claimant state in regards to the SCS disputes, offered to be an honest broker in these disputes (Heiduk, 2016, p. 34), and followed a China-friendly domestic and regional approach. This positive attitude was reflected, for instance, during Indonesia’s ASEAN chairmanship in 2011, when the Indonesian administration endorsed an increased ASEAN integration with China (Aplianta, 2016, pp. 16–17). This China-friendly attitude has been increasingly undermined by Beiing’s claims that some of the NI territorial waters are indisputably part of China’s traditional fishing grounds. Therefore, China feels entitled to send its fishing fleets and modern coast guard to the region. Beijing’s claims are based primarily on questionable historical evidence, which is neither recognized by Indonesia nor the UNCLOS.1
https://s3pi.umy.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Indonesia%E2%80%99s-swift-securitization-of-the-Natuna-Islands-dikompresi.pdf

Posted by: Antonym | Oct 2 2021 5:43 utc | 70

On the Anambas islands - not reefs(!), part of Indonesia's Riau province: https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/08/19/anambas-islands-to-finish-airport-expansion-in-september.html

These as far from China as Iceland is from Germany.

Posted by: Antonym | Oct 2 2021 5:57 utc | 71

@Don Bacon 65
“ written by an unqualified person”.

That seems an odd thing to say, don’t you think? This might be true for medical or legal opinions, but most of us are exchanging thoughts and information in these comments to see through the official fog and MSM smoke. Not to mention the person in question is quoting directly from Rand documents.

Posted by: Moses | Oct 2 2021 6:42 utc | 72

This is not 1944 where you can float troop transports across the Pacific to attack an enemy. We live in an age of satellites and hyper sonic weapons. If there is a war it will be a series of short furious naval battles in which the holders of land in the area will be the victors. Will Korea and Japan join? At their great peril maybe.

While the media coverage is bullshit China is boiling the frog in water slowly with Taiwan being the frog. I am sure China has though about the suppression of enemy air defenses like the US has done effectively with the Wild Weasel. I am sure China has the capacity to take out a good portion of Taiwan's radar and air defense system. They can systematically destroy their naval bases along with their communication infrastructure and military bases without a boot on the ground. Taiwan can do little in return.

If China decided to act it would be over rather quickly with a loss of prestige on the world stage. I am sure they have thought about that as well. The US is in no position do do anything other than bitch and moan. Taiwan will have to cut some sort of deal with China at some point or China will act I do believe. When that will happen is anyones guess.

Posted by: circumspect | Oct 2 2021 6:42 utc | 73

The BBC has now upped the number of Chinese planes to 38! Anything you can do, I can do better! Haha. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58771369

Posted by: Alba Male | Oct 2 2021 7:12 utc | 74

@23 Carl "There is no way the People's Republic of China will bomb the microchip foundries in the Republic of China that is the very life blood of its technological development."

If push came to shove came to shootin' then I do not doubt that the PLA will attempt to seize intact the chip foundries in Taiwan.

I believe that it is much, much more likely that if the PLA looked like pulling pulling off such a feat of arms then it would be the USAF that bombs those foundries on the basis that "if we can't have it then nobody can".

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Oct 2 2021 7:37 utc | 75

@circumspect 73
While I fully agree to your conclusion that the US can't sensibly do anything when China decides to forcefully reunite Taiwan with the mainland, I do not see that China is boiling the frog.

China has not tightened any tensions, neither towards Taiwan, not in the SCS or ECS. The "nine dash line" is a naval border claimed by the ROC and Jiang Jieshi (Chiang kai Shek) in 1944 at earliest, and at that time, neither of FUKUS challenged that claim. That as an aside.

As to Taiwan, China has tried since decades to go a long and patient way towards unification, by strengthening ties between the territory and the motherland. Taiwan companies are heavily invested in mainland China (and vice versa where not sabotaged by the DPP administration), between 1 and 2 million Taiwan inhabitants live permanently or for long periods in mainland China, there are some hundred thousand marriages.

China has made clear that the one country, two systems situation can go on for long as long as there is no secession attempt. In that case China will act swiftly.

Hu Xijin in the Global Times described the outlines of such a forceful unification when commenting US weapon sales to Taiwan. Once China would act, there would be powerful satiation attacks by missiles, air force, and naval firepower destroying all major airports, military targets on land, military naval installations, and naval forces of Taiwan. After that a full force landing on Taiwan and all its islands would follow.

There is no reasonibly thinkable possible outcome where the attacking side could be repelled or defeated. And there is no way how a naval attack of the US, AUKUS, Quad or whomever could succeed. And it is very doubtful that even the most radical forces in the US would wage a nuclear war over Taiwan.

As to Taiwan, it is their side who is stirring up the conflicts by buying "recognition" by some Baltic SS Shitholes like Lithuania who are living on EU pockets so don't have much to lose. Ukraine rowed back when receiving a warning from Beijing. The DPP clowns should just stop their separatist provocations. A Chinese proverb says "the rat that gnaws the tiger's tail invites destruction".

Posted by: aquadraht | Oct 2 2021 7:57 utc | 76

@vk | Oct 2 2021 1:14 utc | 51

Taiwan never declared independence. It considers itself the only China, therefore it considers the entire Mainland China its own territory, in the hands of the Communists.

The Empire on the other hand...

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2021 8:27 utc | 77

b, and barflies who may know, a question needs answering.

The Wormtongue Guardian propaganda rag sheet echoed the Anti BRI bs yesterday claiming the Chinese had ‘secretly’ entrapped hundreds of countries into hundreds of billions of loans for building their state of the art infrastructure which the western bankers have never ever seriously considered in delivering.

My question is how much debt is owed by the nation states if the world to the IMF, World Wank and BIS at that level

And how much more to the Private Wankers through loans or hedge fund investments?

I’m looking for as simplistic a number as the Groaniad is pushing to compare with but google searches ain’t throwing anything useful up from these organisations shites.

Posted by: D.G. | Oct 2 2021 9:54 utc | 78

This thread is another example of b opening a door so that an avalanche of knowledge and expertise can pour through it.

Thanks all.

Posted by: JohninMK | Oct 2 2021 10:57 utc | 79

karlof1 @47: "The Thucydides Trap was again debunked... The antagonists are supposed to be copycat rivals to each other, but that wasn't the case with Athens or Sparta then..."

And yet the Peloponnesian War happened anyway. The details of personality are not relevant as personality is not what causes war. A rising power inevitably displaces the existing power, and the existing power resists the loss of its dominance. This basic pattern is unavoidable.

"...the Outlaw US Empire cannot deal with China from a position of strength either geopolitically or geoeconomically..."

Absolutely correct. So what tools does that leave in the "Outlaw US Empire's" arsenal to defend its hegemony? Or do you imagine the empire will give China a sportsman-like handshake, say "Well, it was a nice run but you win. It's your turn to show the world direction now. I'll just retire to tending my garden."? Laughable balderdash!

"...relation to the Outlaw US Empire differs little than how Yamamoto saw the dynamic between Japan and the USA prior to Pearl Harbor..."

Absolutely! Many of the generals and admirals know what they are up against, but Japan ended up at war with the USA anyway. Admiral Yamamoto's realization that war would be an enormous mistake changed exactly what?

There will be war. Xi knows it, and the Chinese people in general know it. That is why they are investing significant chunks of their resources preparing for it. China's military is specifically designed to defeat the empire and any of the empire's vassals that get pushed into the fight. The war is not "if" but "when". The Chinese know that they are under biological weapons attack, but as Oriental Voice @43 points out they are not squealing about it as a western nation would. Delays to the overt war still work to China's advantage: The empire gets weaker and China gets stronger. The greater that strength disparity the more China can control the course of the war and steer that war away from doing lasting damage to humanity.

"A sizable majority of both Trump and Biden voters agreed with the statement that 'if our society so wants, it is the duty of every true citizen to help eliminate the evil that poisons our country from within."

Precisely so. And what is the tried and true method to distract a population from internal issues? Why, external war of course.

It amazes me to see bright people who are fully aware of much of the crazy shit the empire has done over the last couple decades still trying to project the empire's future behavior based upon the assumption that it will be rational. The empire has not been rational and it will not become rational while it remains an empire. In fact the empire will become more irrational with every passing day as its end draws nearer.

Everything karlof1 @47 says points towards war. How can someone as bright and knowledgeable as karlof1 think these things mean peace is on the verge of breaking out?

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 2 2021 12:14 utc | 80

karlof1@47 "At the time, Athens was a nominal democracy; Sparta was ruled by a King and an oligarchy." Athens was not a nominal democracy, it was a genuine democracy. Genuine democracy is entirely compatible with slavery (see US history) and inferior status for women (ditto.) Also, Sparta had two kings, which means no king was ever guaranteed real power (a few did manage to parlay their birth into effective rule.) Even more, though the Peers or Equals could be deemed the "oligarchy" that ruled not just the unwalled Sparta but all of Laconia *and* Messenia, they were in no sense anything like the oligarchies that ruled any other Greek city (including Athens at periods.) The famous/infamous "agoge" state training for boys and the "syssitia" common meals did that.

The Thucydides trap is very much a modern political science concept, a reading into Thucydides. As an analysis of why modern nations go to war, the models are of course the World Wars. But political science ignores the role of capitalist crisis in stressing the international system of empires to the breaking point! Also, the true "First" world war was probably the Seven Years' War, but it is ignored entirely.

There is no Thucydides Trap, there is only the clash of empires, which is to say, the clash of national capitals. The use of arms to divide the world is not a trap, it is standard operating procedures. The phrase Thucydides Trap is a way to pretend reality can be finessed with just the right combinations of carrots, stick and PR,

Posted by: steven t johnson | Oct 2 2021 12:51 utc | 81

For those trying to dismiss the post by "Down South @8 (I'm looking at you Don Bacon @57), here is a link to the original report by the RAND Corporation that the analysis is based upon: War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable.

This is from the RAND Corporation. That is the closest thing the empire has to a brain. What is notable, despite the recognition in the report that the empire's days of uncontested dominance are waning, the report paints an overly optimistic picture for the empire.

Being chilled is entirely called for.

There will be war.

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 2 2021 12:51 utc | 82

Everyday we hear gringo whinning

All our wars are Jew's wars, Israel's wars

Everyday I see evidence to the contrary,

Over 52 percent of respondents agreed to U.S. troops assisting Taiwan in the event of an invasion by mainland China. In 1982, when the Council first raised the question, only 19 percent supported American intervention. Sixty percent of Republicans supported sending U.S. troops to Taiwan, while 50 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of Independents showed support for military aid.

How many times have I been vindicated ?

Its the people stupid. !

[1]
https://www.visiontimes.com/2021/09/07/survey-reveals-majority-support-u-s-military-protection-of-taiwan-against-chinese-invasion.html

Posted by: denk | Oct 2 2021 13:08 utc | 83

@ Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2021 8:27 utc | 77

Correct. It is only the DPP who supports the concept of "Taiwan's independence". The KMT (the other Taiwanese party) already fully supports "reunification".

Posted by: vk | Oct 2 2021 13:11 utc | 84

@77 "There is only one China. Their dispute is about who is to govern the country."

Not exactly. Their dispute is about who decides China's foreign policy.

Posted by: dh | Oct 2 2021 14:04 utc | 85

In regards to the prospect of war with china, while I am sympathetic to gruff’s perspective, I think it still simplifies the situathon. thr US side is not monolithix while MICIMATT has institutionally mobilized all the psyops effortsz, and the Pentagon has moved to 'pivot to asia' since Obama, there are nevertheless the Mark Milleys that understand that there is no way for the US to win in the Asia Pacific theater against china. they wouls not only lose the war but also bleed global prestige.

that said, when the institutional gears are grinding as they are, so called strategic thinking ceases to be rational or even strategic. trying to predict what an irrational institution will do makes little sense.

secondly, the us is already at war with china, hybrid war. it's not as if we need to wait for some trigger event -- it is already ongoing! Hong Kong color revolution, whose failure is now abundantly clear. the ongoing xinjiang campaign. and let's not forget that china depleted a staggering amount of its US reserves in 2015 in order to fight off US orchestrated capital flight so it could harvest Chinese assets in the cheap, like they did in the asian financial crisis.

that's not much talked about at MOC, but I've heard Chinese analysts speak of that financial warfare as a watershed moment. watershed because its failure precipitated more desperate and maniacal measures afterwards. keep in mind that was before the hong Kong and Xinjiang psyops.

as for biological warfare, regardless of one's view on the origins of covid, there was a spate of agricultural pests in the trump era that devastated Chinese food production. everything is being tried.

so, war js ongoing. to instead await and analyze and predict some trigger military event like Taiwan is to miss the forest for the trees. if what's been happening doesn't count as aggression on par with warfare, then that is already to have internalized empire propaganda that things like sanctions are not acts of war.

Posted by: mastameta | Oct 2 2021 14:07 utc | 86

The Anglo’s started WW1 to maintain their global hegemony. They started WW2 for the same purpose. Yet somehow people believe it is too far fetch that they would start a war with China to maintain the same hegemony they fought 2 WWs over?

Read the RAND report. They know they will suffer heavy military casualties and their economy will collapse by 10% but all that will be worth it if they can inflict heavy damage on China’s economy in the region of a 30-35% collapse.

What do you think the purpose of all this China bashing coverage in the media is about that b highlights? It is to prepare the populace for the coming conflict with China.

Posted by: Down South | Oct 2 2021 14:19 utc | 87

m 69

'I would say that this kind of saber rattling by Bejing is for Taiwan approximately as threatening as the annual US-South Korean miliitary drills are for North Korea.'

From the same idiot who says
'I dont expect FUS to use such low life
tactics like kidnapping Meng, its more
like a NK MO'

If not for FUS inciting tw separative
moveMEnt, there'd not be such show of force from the mainland,

nEVER study Newton;s law eh ?

if you want peace at tw straits, ask
FUS to stop its sabre rattling at China's doorstep idiot.

Posted by: denk | Oct 2 2021 14:22 utc | 88

as for a conflict over taiwan and the US inability to stop forcible unification from happening, the real significance of such an event is not about Taiwan itself but rather Korea and Japan. as vassals, and as sites of forward deployment for the US military.

if the US is sbown to be unable to 'protect' Taiwan, then the raison d'etre for US bases in Japan and Korea suddenly goes poof. THAT ultimately is Taiwan's significance.

going poof means the continued US stranglehold over japanese politics will be unsettled and probably unwind within in a decade. Korea as well. Taiwan would be the domino that ends the US military presence in the Asia Pacific.

Taiwan unification in and of itself means little for china beyond its symbolic importance. seeing the big picture, taiwan's human capital for semiconductors is already integrating with the mainland's. TSMC factories can be bombed by the US but it's the human talent that really matters in this sphere. besides that and its Cuba-like locale, Taiwan is insignificant for china. the GDP of fujian just across the straits, historically poorer than the rest, has already surpassed Taiwan several years ago.

in short Taiwan is by itself not a big thing but as a domino it's everything. starting with the "first island chain" of bases.

Posted by: mastameta | Oct 2 2021 14:42 utc | 89

mastameta @85: "trying to predict what an irrational institution will do makes little sense."

A cornered animal is irrational, but it is easy to predict what it will do.

"secondly, the us is already at war with china, hybrid war."

Yes, of course, but the war will go overt and kinetic. That is the only path available to the cornered dog of an empire. The growling and snarling threats, the urinating on the carpet, nothing else it does opens a path back to power for the empire.

"... china depleted a staggering amount of its US reserves in 2015... "

This is policy, like that in Russia, to reduce exposure to the US dollar. To the empire that in itself is an act of war.

Yes, the war is currently on already, but it remains somewhat covert. When I talk about war starting above I am referring to overt military conflict.

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 2 2021 15:15 utc | 90

@ mastameta 88
if the US is shown to be unable to 'protect' Taiwan. . .

Just to be clear, the US does not have a mutual defense pact with the province of Taiwan. All Washington's announcements regard selling military gear to Taiwan so it can (theoretically) defend itself. There is never a suggestion that the US would come to Taiwan's defense, despite US warships sailing back and forth.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 2 2021 15:17 utc | 91

@ WG 81
report by the RAND Corporation [in 2016] that the analysis is based upon: War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable.

Was this report authored by experienced military people who have attended military staff and war colleges? No, it was authored by three RAND operatives who are totally unqualified to decide where the next war will be.
. . the three authors:
David Charles Gompert is an American government official and former diplomat . .Astrid Stuth Cevallos is a Research Assistant at the RAND Corporation. . .Cristina Garafola is an associate policy researcher at the RAND Corporation

This is from the RAND Corporation. That is the closest thing the empire has to a brain.
No. The empire ain't THAT stupid.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Oct 2 2021 15:37 utc | 92

@ 62 carl d... maybe it is just temporary...

@ mastameta | Oct 2 2021 14:07 utc | 85.. your post highlights just how depraved and desperate the usa leadership is at this point.

i got a copy of ''has china won?" out of the library yesterday and read the first chapter.. looking forward to the rest of the book...

Posted by: james | Oct 2 2021 15:56 utc | 93

"No. The empire ain't THAT stupid."

No, the empire is even more stupid.

As for the RAND Corporation, all they do is reports. Any report with the RAND brand at the top represents the conclusions of the corporation, regardless of the committee that assembled the report.

If the poster is so much more qualified than the RAND Corporation, perhaps he should consider getting a job with them? Improve the quality of the reports the US government uses to inform their decisions? I doubt it will help much since the empire is terminal for baked-in economic reasons, but it is worth a try, right?

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 2 2021 16:05 utc | 94

"David Charles Gompert is an American government official and former diplomat who served as the acting Director of National Intelligence..."

Anyway, a point I try repeatedly to stress is that military people don't decide whether a war is launched or not. That decision is made by civilians, so the opinions that matter are those of the civilians in government and big business.

Posted by: William Gruff | Oct 2 2021 16:26 utc | 95

Posted by: aquadraht | Oct 2 2021 7:57 utc | 76:

China has not tightened any tensions, neither towards Taiwan, not in the SCS or ECS. The "nine dash line" is a naval border claimed by the ROC and Jiang Jieshi (Chiang kai Shek) in 1944 at earliest, and at that time, neither of FUKUS challenged that claim. That as an aside.

Actually 'US' of the 'FUKUS' you referred to encouraged Jiang Jieshi (I like this version of the name better than Chiang Kaishek :-) to make the claim on SCS. Jiang was given a Battleship in 1946, the Taiping Hao, which was the largest war ship in KMT possession at the time. An admiral of the US accompanied the admiral of the KMT Navy to tour the SCS, each and every reef, shoal, and/or islands and gave each a name. The largest island of SCS at the time, at around 2.5 sq. kilometer, was name Taiping in honor of the ship that US gave to KMT.

Taiwan still administers Taiping Island. It has a air stripe of 600 meters long. It is in the Shisha cluster (Paracel in b's map above). China would simply leave them alone, but Vietnam has been eyeing the place with malicious desires. Meanwhile, for the past three years Taiwan has been talking about inviting US war ships to visit and dock at Taiping, regularly so. China has warned the US to stay off.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 2 2021 17:53 utc | 96

Posted by: Down South | Oct 2 2021 14:19 utc | 87:

The Anglo’s started WW1 to maintain their global hegemony. They started WW2 for the same purpose. Yet somehow people believe it is too far fetch that they would start a war with China to maintain the same hegemony they fought 2 WWs over?

You're absolutely right, but you overlooked one crucial difference: Prior to WW1 and WW2 there was no such thing as nukes. Would the Anglos pushed into WW1 and WW2 if nukes were also around? That's one conundrum I'm tossing around on my mind all the time.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Oct 2 2021 18:12 utc | 97

@Oriental Voice | Oct 2 2021 18:12 utc | 97

Prior to WW1 and WW2 there was no such thing as nukes. Would the Anglos pushed into WW1 and WW2 if nukes were also around? That's one conundrum I'm tossing around on my mind all the time.

It begins with the mustard gas,
It proceeds to Hiroshima.

---

From 1979:

Peter Hammill '"Porton Down"

Won't hear a sound at Porton Down*
The clear liquids keep their silence,
Buried underground at Porton Down
The fast form of the final violence.

No sound at Porton Down,
No sound at Porton Down,
No sound from Porton Down,
No sound
After Porton Down.

Posted by: Norwegian | Oct 2 2021 18:35 utc | 98

@98 Not sure we can pin that one on the Anglos...

https://timeline.com/the-father-of-chemical-warfare-had-a-wife-who-tried-to-stop-him-65fc37a10357

Posted by: dh | Oct 2 2021 18:44 utc | 99

"Anyway, a point I try repeatedly to stress is that military people don't decide whether a war is launched or not."

that is a good pt. but that is separate from the claim that the anti china propaganda and psyops are clearly a lead up to some planned war with china. the interests of the military industrial complex is by itself enough to account for that. this is not like the leadup to the Iraq invasion.

the Taiwan card is only a card to play if the status quo remains. the needle has moved but no one wants to push china towards forcible unification. that would effectively mean US being booted from the Asia Pacific as I posted about above.

empire suicide is what flailing empires do, so maybe. but no one thinks that that intervention is winnable. even a civilian instigated war requires some Pentagon folks to say You know, we can win this. they didn't say that about Iran even up to this point. and with every passing day, it becomes harder to say about china. the Pentagon war games playing out a conflict with china all lead to the same conclusion.

Posted by: mastameta | Oct 2 2021 19:15 utc | 100