Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 12, 2021

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2021-070

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

Other issues:



Use as open thread ...

Posted by b on September 12, 2021 at 14:36 UTC | Permalink

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"Another oddity although I can't find the article at the moment is ROSATOM's new wind power division, NovaWind."

Having viewed the analysis on resource requirements wind turbine generators use a lot of copper but not other more rare metals.
We still don't have enough copper, but that's the best we have. And turbine blades remain an issue.

Posted by: David G Horsman | Sep 14 2021 17:06 utc | 201

Oops. To the esteemed Karloff @130

Posted by: David G Horsman | Sep 14 2021 17:08 utc | 202

General Hyten, mentioned @202, words were also picked up by RT which then published "War with Russia & China would 'destroy world' & America must find ways to make peace with its Eastern rivals, top US general warns."

Apparently, Hyten isn't retired; he's Vice Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. RT distilled the words he spoke Monday at the Brookings Institution thusly:

"With global nuclear stockpiles growing and countries upgrading their warheads and rockets, there is an almost unprecedented need to de-escalate tensions and avert atomic armageddon, one of America's most senior officers has said....

"Hyten warned of the risks if conflicts spiral out of control, and expressed hope that cooler heads can prevail. 'We never fought the Soviet Union,' he said. 'As for the great powers, our goal is to never go to war with China and Russia.'

"According to Hyten, such an event would 'destroy the world and the global economy. It will be bad for everyone, and we have to ensure that we do not go down that path.' However, the general went on, previous deals between Moscow and NATO after the fall of the USSR concluded 'Russia was not a threat any more.' At the same time, however, he alleges that the Russians were 'modernizing their entire nuclear arsenal.' This, he says, was because 'I think they were worried about the US.'" [My Emphasis]

I emphasized the "goal" because I interpret the planning and defense posture papers as saying the opposite, particularly the semi-secret policy goal of attaining Full Spectrum Dominance. I refuse to believe General Hyten doesn't know of that policy. I also find it incredulous that Hyten goes on to ask this seemingly rhetorical question about China:

"[Y]ou have to ask yourself, why are they building that enormous, enormous nuclear capability?"

Do you not read what your media publish and broadcast or your nations #1 policy goal?!

No wonder the retreat from Afghanistan was botched so badly given Flag officers like Hyten.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 14 2021 17:12 utc | 203

@Posted by: ptb | Sep 14 2021 8:55 utc | 170

One of the other dreams of the US is an energy blockade on China, one that the Chinese have already worked out how to withstand long enough to make it completely impractical given the impact on oil supplying nations and the Western oil companies. Plus, of course, all the other economic fallouts that you note. From the US Naval War College Review:

A colleague and I provided an updated analysis, within the overall context of Chinese energy security (the link is good until October 27th, then it goes behind the paywall)

Posted by: Roger | Sep 14 2021 17:40 utc | 204

Putin & Assad met on Monday in Moscow, with rather obvious words spoken to media while plans for the next step were hashed out in private.

Putin: "The main problem, in my opinion, is that foreign armed forces are present in certain areas of the country without any UN mandate, without your authorization, which clearly contradicts international law, and prevents you from making a maximum effort to consolidate the country and move along the path of its restoration at a rate that would be possible if the entire territory was controlled by the legitimate government."

Assad's abridged message: "Assad acknowledged the necessity of mending political dialogue within Syria, but voiced regret over the fact that this work had been basically 'stalled for the last three years.' According to the Syrian leader, certain countries have a 'destructive influence' on the potential for political process in the country.

"He also reminded Putin of the sanctions imposed on the war-torn country by the US, EU and some Arab states, blasting those restrictions as 'anti-human' and 'illegal.'

"He thanked Moscow for its military and diplomatic support during the conflict, especially singling out the efforts of the Russian Foreign Ministry to defend Syria’s right to decide its own fate and resist attempts by some countries to 'use terrorism to achieve their goals.'"

We must assume the unnamed terrorist supporters are Turkey, Occupied Palestine, and the Outlaw US Empire. I must also express bewilderment at the lack of progress over the past three years at ousting the remaining forces from Syria that would allow for the political process to move forward. And it's not just the Syrian people who remain in crisis, but also Palestinians and now Lebanese. I'm sure I'm not alone in wanting events to again move forcefully to restore Syria's territorial integrity by removing NATO forces and its terrorists so Syrians can again use all their national resources to rebuild their nation.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 14 2021 17:43 utc | 205

In another indicator that something productive will soon occur in Syria, "Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned Tuesday that the continued presence of American troops in eastern Syria amounts to a de facto partition of the country....

"'I think that in their arsenal there is a scenario of a de facto partition of Syria. We are against this and are acting in accordance with the existing resolutions of the UN Security Council, which has confirmed the territorial integrity of Syria,' he added."

It appears the continuity of a policy adopted in 2018 continues:

"In 2018, then-US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the US intended to keep troops in eastern Syria until its goals of forcing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from power and training a large proxy force of Kurds and other ethnic minorities in the region who were oppressed by Daesh rule. However, he also said the US intended to keep Iran's position in Syria weak, a very open-ended mission goal."

Time to dig the rats out of their holes and send them elsewhere.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 14 2021 18:00 utc | 206

karlof1@ 202:

"General John E. Hyten, vice chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Monday, "Our goal should be to never go to war with China, to never go to war with Russia. ""

Dropping the first shoe before the midterms. The second one would be to never insist on covid mandates, but to simply allow physicians to pursue alternative solutions to the apparent crisis in medical matters. There is no precedent for the manner in which this virus epidemic is being handled in the US. Every doctor should be free to treat her or his patient in the manner they both decide. Advocation of possible remedies is not a crime. And the government should stay out of it, except for possibly giving approval and support to programs which in general affect the health of the population - excercise, diet, less video games, the like.

The people should know the rules each business has for indoor activities - and they all ought to be educated in the fact that everyone, vaccinated or not, should wear a mask there, or even two, until this epidemic has run its course. It's not rocket science!

If that shoe doesn't drop, you can forget about the first one.

Posted by: juliania | Sep 14 2021 18:08 utc | 207

@ David G Horsman | Sep 14 2021 17:06 utc | 202

Also, knowing that a 1 MW wind turbine currently consists of 3.4 tons of copper and a photovoltaic installation of 4 tons of copper per MW. Wind blades? As any aeronautical now, mostly carbon and aluminum. Life expectancy 20/30 years, easy [standard industrial process] to update/fix/reuse/recycle

And a single car requires 100kg and a bus 400kg. Over the next decade, experts predict that the global demand for copper could reach five million tons. As soon as electric vehicles become more popular and accessible, an additional 11,000,000 tons of copper will be required for electric vehicles alone.
But it is an easy material to recycle.

All that blah blah on wind turbine is more or less some manipulation. Mostly from nuclear energy think-tank.

If we need energy, which side are you on? For me "Atomkraft, Nein, Danke"

Posted by: Odenwälder | Sep 14 2021 18:30 utc | 208

David G Horsman @201--

Afghan copper mining to be renewed by China at Mes Aynak:

"Afghanistan's best-known deposit located about 40 kilometers south-east of the capital, Kabul, according to Kandahar-based outlet Taand. The reserves of an estimated 240 million tonnes of 2.3 percent grade copper are believed to be worth at least $50billion."

The article details the issues involved, plus it includes a very informative tweet providing an overview of Afghanistan's mineral resources.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 14 2021 19:07 utc | 209

Today's base metal price: Copper $4.2657/lb
95% copper US pennies metal value: $0.0282560 or 282% over face value.

juliania @207--

The problem is Big Pharma controls the regulators/government and orgs like AMA. Many MDs owned by HMOs aren't allowed to do the sort of individual treatment you advocate. Every day sees a hoard of professionals resigning because they refuse to be coerced. My wife wasn't going to await the onslaught of lawsuits challenging the mandate and got the J&J jab to keep her job. In related news is the report of a major class-action suit settlement in a case brought against the chicken Monopsony, which you can read about here.

There's a very good reason it's called Monopoly Capitalism because that's what we have here within the Outlaw US Empire and it's screwed up most everything. HMOs aren't allowed to practice medicine but they do all the time and get away with murder.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 14 2021 19:24 utc | 210


Re the US in Syria. Some time back there was a major reshuffle in Russia. Long standing officials, both elected and I think appointed were moved to a new positioning the presidential are of responsibilities. From memory, I think Putin said the area that group would be looking at is foreign policy. I have heard nothing more of that group. Whatever does happen in Syria I think will be part of a much larger plan. Russia has only just started production and deployment of many new weapons systems so my thought is the timing of whatever is planned will be linked to the deployment of weapons systems.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 14 2021 20:14 utc | 211

Peter AU1 @211--

Thanks for your reply. Putin held lots of conversations, in person and via telephone, with heads-of-state as the Twin Summits approach: Assad, PM Khan, Uzbek Pres Mirziyoyev, Iranain Pres Raisi, Lukashenko, and Tajikistan Pres Rahmon. Then there was an intense conference with United Russia over the state of critical policy proposals as the Duma elections near. Further expansion of SCO seems a given and might also occur with CSTO. What I see occurring is the ending of an Era when the Outlaw US Empire was able to get away with treating all those in its relations as subordinates or worse, and its position being replaced by that demanded by the UN Charter--that all nations be accorded the same rights and legitimacy, that subordination be abolished. The Bully can Bully no longer. The Big Picture shows the Outlaw US Empire in perhaps its worst position since 1945--it's in direct violation of several UNSC Resolutions and continued to violate the UN Charter daily with its grossly immoral sanctions and very serious human rights violations at home and globally, not to mention its conduct during the pandemic. As I wrote awhile ago, the Empire has no friends, not even its closest allies--the UK and Occupied Palestine--can help it out of the multiple dilemmas its caused for itself. And that's just the diplomatic front.

Militarily, there's a new mass of evidence of the Empire's facilitating terrorist weapons purchases that reinforces what's already known that also further implicates other NATO members. And that lends further credence to the utter falsity of its declared war on terrorism, which after 20 years of facilitating terror the world has had more than enough. All the above and more will be hurled at it during the UNGA. But you can bet that the Empire's media and Congress will ignore it entirely. And that will only serve to further enrage the world's nations who've had more than enough and are now out of patience.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 14 2021 21:21 utc | 212

karlof1 212

That is very similar to my view on the current US position. In looking at the US, I think of the battle of Kursk. The Soviet Union defeated Hitler's Germany in that battle, but a huge number of Soviet soldiers died before they reached the Reichstag.
Perhaps the US will just quietly fold but I doubt it.

One I think about a bit now. Before covid, biological warfare was more or less out of the question as whoever released a contagious agent would also be affected by it. Now we are at a point where the uni-polar world and the rules based order world are receiving different vaccines. This opens the door for various strains or even different pathogens where the vaccines already given to populations will have varying degrees of effectiveness against the new strain.

This may not occur, but to me, the door is now open for bio-warfare of varying degrees, from simply shutting down opposing economies to something more deadly.
Not a certainty, but a possibility that must now be considered.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 14 2021 21:44 utc | 213

U.S. imperial strategy in the Middle East now in tatters after its humiliation in Afghanistan. The Taliban, Houthis, Syria, Hezbollah, Russia, China, Iran now have geostrategic initiative. Biden is being pragmatic in snubbing Saudi Arabia, one pole in the failed policy. Look also for a cooling of the U.S. obsessive love affair with Israel, the other. In both cases nasty divorce proceedings likely.

Posted by: Winston S Warfield | Sep 14 2021 21:53 utc | 214

A couple of floating nuclear power stations are being built in China since the Russian shipyard that built the first operating mobile atomic power plant is too busy building icebreakers. A Chinese company will build the vessels themselves to then be fitted in S.Petersburg with the atomic power plants. They are supposed to be delivered one in '23 another one in'24, two more will be built in Russia. Where is all that power needed? In Chukotka, close to the port of Pevek, a 160 kms. power line to be built to the Baimskie deposits to mine copper and other metals.

Posted by: Paco | Sep 14 2021 21:54 utc | 215

Peter AU1 213--

IMO, the mRNA-based vaccines are a failure against covid. China's on fire regarding defending against the smallest of outbreaks and is involved in the fight against other emerging diseases, a phenomenon that will continue to occur as nature gets rolled back. However, even in a completely financialized economy, you still need masses of people to keep the rich served, and it seems to me that a biowar would negate that since humans aren't smarter than Nature and likely never will.

Paco @215--

Thanks for that info. The Russia/China partnership just keeps churning along.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 14 2021 21:57 utc | 216

Description of the Baimka deposits, machine translation:

The Baimskaya copper-porphyry area (or Baimka) in the Bilibino region of Chukotka is the richest in the world in terms of reserves: its resources are estimated at 23 million tons of copper and 64.3 million ounces (2 million kg) of gold. There are 13 deposits on the territory of the ore zone. According to the JORC classification, the reserves of the most promising of them, Peschanka, amount to 9.5 million tons of copper and 16.5 million ounces of gold. This deposit was discovered in 1972, and active prospecting work was carried out until 1985.

Posted by: Paco | Sep 14 2021 22:02 utc | 217

@204 Roger

Thanks for the additional links. Oil and gas stopped being a strategic lever vs China, when US alienated Russia for a generation. With Chinese global dominance in manufacturing or new construction lead of each big non-carbon energy source (solar, wind, nuke, hydro), that lever it won't be coming back. Nice to know there is at least some common sense out there on this topic.

Posted by: ptb | Sep 14 2021 22:17 utc | 218


Behind everything, financial world Systems of governance in many countries, technology, world bodies - is anglo dominance.

Rather than just money, it is anglo dominance that is now being lost in all spheres. For some time now I have been looking at world affairs from that point of view which will make my take on the future, which may well be wrong, different to those that think the fight is purely financial or for material things.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 14 2021 22:19 utc | 219

vk 220

It would be interesting to know how much of that poverty was caused by the US financial/tech/trade war against China.
Computer chips is a big one. US black listing cut some US supplies of lower end chips used in several US manufacturing circles. I think a lot of the chips used in the US auto industry came from China.
Tariffs on a number of imported goods would also lead to a rise in the cost of living.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 14 2021 22:35 utc | 221

Peter AU1 @219--

I very much agree. The centuries of Anglo dominance in Guns, Germs and Steel are over, abandoned in favor of Financialization, and are now the property of other more productive agencies. The "End of History" was mistaken and is now correctly seen as the End of Western Historical Dominance, which has ended in similar fashion to Rome for almost the same reasons. As I just wrote on the new thread, the USA is in dire condition as are all the Western creations generally, and in many ways it's maddening. For example, where I live we have numerous businesses that would like to hire several hundred people but there's no affordable housing for those people. And that situation exists in many other states. But the only housing that's being constructed is luxury housing not affordable housing. If I had or could raise the capital, I'd construct 1,000 apartment units and have them all leased before construction could finish. And there would still be a demand for housing. That's how fucked-up this situation is. Another great example is daycare, particularly infant (considered just born-two years old) daycare, which has a two year waiting list--today's infants won't be infants when a slot finally opens!!!! Healthcare--we can't keep nurses and doctors because of the housing and daycare situations. And so forth.

The Parasite has almost killed its Host. Will the Host wake up in time to kill the Parasite before it kills the Host? And what will need to happen to wake up the Host? Even greater political unrest? More gun violence and police riots? What the Western World requires are Financial Busters or Neoliberal Exterminators and soon.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 14 2021 23:06 utc | 222

Posted by David G Horsman @ 201

Yes, wind turbines do use a lot of copper. They also need the rare earth niobium for high power permanent magnets.

There are only three major manufactures of these magnets in the world. Australia is mining rare earths at a number of mines. Lynas Rare Earths is the major producer:

China is the world's largest rare earth miner, refiner and supplier. It's a very dirty product with lots of pollution, including radioactive waste.

Posted by: Paul | Sep 14 2021 23:16 utc | 223

Hudson's newest essay is finally posted to his website: "The Vocabulary of Neoliberal Diplomacy in Today’s New Cold War."

Upthread @155, snake said this about democracy: "None of the western governance models are democratic." Hudson opens his essay thusly:

"The New York Times published a prominent article defining the 'Biden Doctrine' as seeing 'China as America’s existential competitor; Russia as a disrupter; Iran and North Korea as nuclear proliferators, cyberthreats as ever-evolving and terrorism as spreading far beyond Afghanistan.' Against these threats, the article depicts U.S. strategy as representing 'democracy,' the euphemism for countries with neoliberal governments that leave economic planning to Wall Street financial managers, and infrastructure in the hands of private investors, not provided at publicly at subsidized prices. Nations that restrict monopolies and related rent-seeking activities are accused of being autocratic." [My Emphasis]

So, we have Hudson's first definition of democracy. Lets see what he wrote later:

"What is democracy?

"Aristotle wrote that many constitutions appear superficially to be democratic, but actually are oligarchic. Democracy always has been the deceptive euphemism for oligarchy making itself into a hereditary aristocracy. Democracies tend to evolve into oligarchies as creditors expropriate debtors (the 'rule of law' [defined earlier in the essay] guaranteeing a hierarchy of 'property rights' [defined later in the essay] with creditor claims at the top of the legal pyramid).

"The move toward democratic political reform in the late 19th and early 20th centuries was supposed to create rent-free markets. But the dynamics of political democracy have been managed in a way that blocks economic democracy. The very meaning of 'democracy' has effectively been degraded to mean opposition to the government’s power to act against the oligarchic rentier One Percent on behalf of the 99 Percent. The resulting travesty of a democratic free market serves to block political attempts to use public power to promote the interests of the wage-earning population at large, and indeed of the industrial economy itself to avoid financial asset stripping and debt deflation of markets for industrial products.

"In the language of nouveau-Western diplomacy, 'democratic' has become a label for any pro-U.S. regime, from the Baltic kleptocracies to Latin America’s military dictatorships. Countries using state power to regulate monopolies or to tax rentier income are denounced as 'autocratic,' even if they have elected heads of state. In this new Orwellian rhetoric of international diplomacy, Boris Yeltsin’s kleptocratic Russian regime was democratic, and the popular move by subsequent popularly elected governments in Russia to stop the corruption and depopulation is called 'autocracy.'" [My Emphasis]

So, we must congratulate snake for being correct, that Western neoliberal states self-proclaiming themselves as democracies aren't that at all and are instead Neoliberal Oligarchies. They are the Parasites that are killing the Host that must be exterminated if the Western nations's publics are to have a meaningful future.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 14 2021 23:26 utc | 224

Karlof1 @ 200:

Yes the Australian Citizens Party in Melbourne has drawn attention in the past to the ASPI's dependence on US weapons manufacturers and US and UK government (especially the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office) funding in the past. Here is an October 2020 report published online by the party. The report mentions that ASPI staff were being paid by the US State Department, then headed by Crassus Michaelus Pompeous at the time.

Posted by: Jen | Sep 14 2021 23:33 utc | 225

Jen @225--

Thanks for your reply! I've read some good comments about the Australian Citizens Party from our Aussie barflies and hope they can generate enough citizen patronage to turn the tide.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 0:09 utc | 226

I discovered the source for the RT article I cited @203 above to be this video "A conversation with Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General John E. Hyten", which I've yet to view. Hopefully, there's more content in support of my White Flag hypothesis, but I won't have time to watch it until tomorrow.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 0:44 utc | 227

Dr Mahathir called soros financial shark, FUKUS [UK, US] terrorist states.

FUKUS smirk...

U aint seen nuthin get.

Within a six months period,.
MH370 disappeared into thin air,
MH 17 blown outta the sky

MH148 near miss, engine on fire, emergency landing.

Not again !
Another one, AirAsia QZ8501 ,

How Can A Commercial Airplane Just Disappear?
it ended up in the Java seabed.

Helicopter exploded in mid air,
with PM Najib PA onboard.
Najib was invited for that trip but he declined.
May be that bomb was meant for Najib ?

Ian Fleming's law of prob,

Bad luck stop at two....third time is enemy action

Posted by: denk | Sep 15 2021 2:13 utc | 228

@ karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 0:44 utc | 227 with the link to the Brookings interview with the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General John E. Hyten

I gagged my way through until they started talking about specific weapons systems and then bailed....before the budget fun for all this MIC upgrade was provided.

I think it is more a MIC fund raising FEAR tool than a White Flag signal of any sort.

I laughed a bit when the general referred to war "surrogates" that us barflies call proxy wars. He talked about how they exist because MAD.

The General went to great length to explain how China is building ALL these silos and could have nukes in them overnight......oooooggggaaaa booooooogggggaaaa and then went on to explain how it was scheduled to take 10 or more years to update the US capability.

Nobody asks what we are fighting for at the civilization level except me but I still believe that public/private finance is the ultimate non-proxy/surrogate war that is being fought

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 15 2021 2:20 utc | 229

Posted by karlof1 @226 and Posted by Jen @225

I think we have been down this track before. The Australian Citizens Party, previously, The Citizens Electoral Council, is a Lyndon La Rouche group.

Sometimes I agree to some of their points.

Posted by: Paul | Sep 15 2021 2:30 utc | 230

karlof1 @ 210, I really fail to see how the link you provide me to the chicken 'settlement' case relates to my post, except as it might be saying to me that my post was foolishness in the face of current realities, but I will add to your statements about Big Pharma and the AMA that I knew when I was a college student how the latter was viewed then by those in the know.

Back then I had the experience of being a fillin for two weeks for the receptionist of a big liberal Washington DC lawyer, right at the heart of power during the Kennedy years. My desk was opposite the one elevator for our building, and the secretary informed me in low tones that above us was the AMA. Her tone of voice told me all I needed to know about that corporation, even back in those days.

I've seen the slave quarters at Mount Vernon and at Monticello. Francis Scott Key attended my liberal arts college. I may sound like an ingenue but that's just my idealism showing. I know what things are really like; I can handle the truth, but the real truth is something different from what we are currently being fed by the propagandists that swarm this country looking for immediate gain as they ever have been. It doesn't hurt to occasionally remind them and ourselves what real truth looks like, even if we aren't experiencing it much these days. I loved the Liberty Tree we had on campus; it's not there any longer.

Chickens? Yes, it's about them too. We used to have laws against that sort of stuff, even when organizations like the AMA and the John Birch Society were our black holes of the day.

The fight goes on. Hang in there.

Posted by: juliania | Sep 15 2021 4:44 utc | 231

So I hear Gavin Newsome has defeated the recall in California. No surprise.

A good thing, but not particularly good. Sort of like Biden winning. Sure, not having to listen to Trump babble day in and day out is a big improvement, but is it good?

Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 15 2021 6:03 utc | 232

@Bemildred #232
The Newsom recall, if the lead holds up, is not going to satisfy anyone.
The reasons include:
1) Every Californian was mailed a ballot despite (at the time) all California counties having largely ended COVID restrictions. All voting for this recall election is thus going to fall under the same suspicion as the 2020 presidential election.
2) Newsom had a $70M+ "not recall" fund into which all manner of the usual suspects donated - including Soros, tech titan CEOs like Zuckerberg etc.
3) California issued not 1 but 2 different population bribes in the form of $600 and $500 checks in the 2 months before the recall election - both of which applied to all residents regardless of legal status.
4) Both Biden and Harris campaigned in California in support of Newsom.

Thus the people who wanted a recall aren't going to believe that the results are genuine even as the people who didn't want a recall but actually understand what's going on are going to wonder why so much money and so much Democrat national party effort went into something supposed so easy to defeat in the heavily coastal blue dominated state.

Posted by: c1ue | Sep 15 2021 10:30 utc | 233

Let's get to what really matters:
The international stuff is amusing but doesn't really matter to most people's day to day lives.
However, at least in the US and I suspect in Europe, day to day living has been seriously disrupted by COVID and various government policy responses.
In the US, inflation is now clearly entrenched. Wolf Street wrote about a survey where people of all ages, but particularly those who actually experienced the high inflation era of the 1970s, now expect up to 6% inflation next year and going forward.
Given that the US is not going to grow 6% next year, this is the literal definition of stagflation if not an inflationary recession.
More importantly, if workers expectations of inflation are high - this makes it seem much more likely that they are going to demand higher wages - which is precisely what a wage inflation spiral entails.
Are we ready for disco part 2?
In Europe - tourism is dying and isn't going to recover any time soon. The money spent hasn't completely disappeared as the "staycation" and the "local-cation" has sprung up, but the socio-economic impact is enormous. Tourism money was one of the primary drivers of wealthy EU nations (Germany, UK, France etc) spending into the poorer EU nations (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain etc). With ongoing COVID outbreaks, it seems highly unlikely this is going to change any time soon. That plus the retirement of Merkel makes it seem like the EU facade of cooperation may not hold up; I don't see Macron having anywhere near the influence Merkel held even disregarding France not being the effective ECB host. Poland and Hungary continue to be intransigent in their "EU lite" behavior.
How will this play out going forward?

Posted by: c1ue | Sep 15 2021 10:42 utc | 234

juliania @ 231

I may sound like an ingenue but...

Nobody ever uses that word, juliania, thank you. It's the name of one of the most beautiful songs I've ever heard. A melodic complexity that makes my gooseflesh rise, even after all these years...proof that pop music can be just as seductive as any other kind. Thanks for reminding me.


Posted by: john | Sep 15 2021 11:42 utc | 235

I expected to find Loudon Wainwright in that link to be honest.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Sep 15 2021 11:53 utc | 236

Posted by: c1ue | Sep 15 2021 10:30 utc | 233

Hey, Disco wasn't so bad. Who can forget the BeeGees?

Recall: well the problem was the likely alternative was a radio-clown. Had any politician with some standing thrown a hat in the ring, I think the result would have been different. Newsome seems elated at the moment, but he has to run again soon, and I don't think he wins that one. Newsome and what-his-name in LA have both been pretty useless.

Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 15 2021 13:31 utc | 237

juliania @231--

Sorry for your confusion. The lawsuit and prose about it is intended to show the lack of independent players in the overall US economy whose various sectors become further monopolized yearly, and that the medical field is no different due to HMOs and their predilection to practice medicine without a license that has resulted in many murderous results. For example, in my region Samaritan has complete control of almost all things medical unless you're on welfare's OHP. Today's newspaper has a very long article about "long-haul" Covid patients you aren't provided good treatment because the HMOs are toeing the political line about what's "proper" to use. What was already a rotten clusterfuck--private for-profit medical system--has grown even worse, particularly for those dependent upon it for their continued wellbeing.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 16:24 utc | 238

Lavrov blasts NATO at presser today. He also said because the new Taliban government's not recognized, it won't have anyone attending the SCO Summit, which I find very unfortunate. The Russian transcript also provides yet another broadside aimed at the EU and its "consensus" policy along with some ridicule of Ukraine's politicos, all of which will eventually join the linked English transcript. Here's part of the blast at NATO:

"The West rejects our arguments, believes that it has the right to do what it pleases no matter what. A couple of years ago, Russia’s General Staff reached out to NATO with an official proposal to carry out a series of confidence building measures, including to agree on both NATO and us respecting a certain distance from the line of contact when holding military exercises. They squarely refused to agree on any such measures, just as they are unwilling to agree on the distance between our respective aircraft and ships. There is no lack of good will on our part, but NATO has been placing proposals of this kind on the back burner for the past two years. They firmly reject any military-to-military contacts that were suspended as a sort of a 'punishment' for what happened in Ukraine and Crimea. We are ready to engage in a conversation as long as it is professional rather than emotional and bordering on hysteria.

"We know where the migrants are coming from. They are arriving from Afghanistan and Iraq, the countries that our Western colleagues 'stirred up.' Today, they are speaking out, calling what Belarus is doing 'hybrid warfare' or using other terms.

"If illegal migration is such a concern for the West, it needs to calm down. Let me remind you that illegal migration first emerged as an urgent issue after NATO bombed Libya and destroyed Libyan statehood. From one of the most stable and prosperous countries, from a social perspective, Libya turned into a 'black hole,' serving as a conduit for terrorists, as well as arms and drug trafficking to Sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, it is through Libya that Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups penetrated Sub-Saharan Africa and Sahel, and their offshoots are still operating there, terrifying people.

"At the same time, illegal migrants headed north through Libyan territory, now in ruins. When the European Union understood that this burden was too heavy for it to bear, it started calling on others to share the responsibility for these migrants. However, we have no intention of sharing any responsibility, since not only did we not support their action but we also condemned them. The West must understand that if it continues with its gambles like in Iraq and Libya or persists with other actions that have not yielded any positive results after 20 years of NATO’s presence in Afghanistan and have done nothing to ease tension, people will keep fleeing places that the West has sought to 'make happy' through its 'democratic mission.'"

The following is the important passage regarding the EU taken from a machine translation from the Russian:

"I have no doubt that attempts to attack this gas pipeline will continue. The most zealously against it is an aggressive minority - the Baltic States, Poland (for obvious reasons) and several other EU countries, guided by their anti-Russian motives. Once again, I [am] convinced that they are trying to adjust the entire policy of the European Union to the views, tastes and manners of this Russophobic minority. Recently, the head of the EU foreign policy service, J. Borrell, made a speech and said that the European Union needs to talk to Russia with one voice, that Russia does not want to talk to the European Union, but wants to talk with individual member states, and that the European Union needs to ensure that all member states require Russia to talk only with the European Union. This is absolutely amazing logic, because not we, but the European Union destroyed the entire architecture of relations that existed between us and Brussels: summits, meetings of heads of government, almost twenty sectoral dialogues, four roadmaps for the formation of four common spaces, visa-free dialogue and much more. Everything is ruined by the European Union.

"In a situation where the EU does not want to restore any of this, we will not sit and wait for one of them to change their "tastes". We will communicate with those who are ready for this. If you follow this logic, if you analyze it (no one should decide their own affairs with Russia, but only through the European Union) – it may be a hint that some people in Brussels want to impose a line of an aggressive minority in relation to Nord Stream 2 on everyone else." [My Emphasis]

The bolded prose is why Lavrov's convinced, and we should conclude that such views are being imposed by the Outlaw US Empire.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 16:41 utc | 239

psychohistorian @229--

Thanks for watching that video!! I'll now place it further back in the queue I've for things to watch.

Turning to the utter corruption within the FBI and Department of Justice, this article provides an overview of Congressional testimony by young female gymnasts damning the FBI and USA Gymnastics for "allowing" their continual abuse by trainers. We saw the despicable Russiagate performance that nobody's been arrested over along with what can only be considered massive corruption at the top of both agencies. I don't see this as Woke-related. I see systemic corruption and an institutional aversion to rooting it out because it permeates the entire government like termites infest a rotten foundation.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 17:01 utc | 240

i had successfully managed to forget the BeeGees, and hope to return to that happy state soon.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 15 2021 17:03 utc | 241

i had successfully managed to forget the BeeGees, and hope to return to that happy state soon.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Sep 15 2021 17:03 utc | 241

You're right, I apologize. Won't happen again.

Although what is going on here today would give the craziness we had back then a lot of competition. What ever happened to the Age of Aquarius anyway?

Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 15 2021 17:24 utc | 242

Disco part 2 is only one symptom.
Let's also not forget the raft of other fun things from the 1970s:
1) Tax revolt that led to the rise of Reagan and Prop. 13
2) French connection style police corruption due to government salaries not keeping up with inflation
3) Strikes sufficient to cause massive disruption. We're talking 5716 strikes in 1970 alone involving some 3 million workers - roughly 3.8% of the entire work force
I'm sure people can think of plenty of other exciting examples besides Travolta dancing.

Posted by: c1ue | Sep 15 2021 17:33 utc | 243

Zakharova joins Lavrov in chastising EU:

"Answering the question about the consequences of the possible adoption of the EP report on the non-recognition of the State Duma elections, Zakharova stressed that it is better to readdress this issue to the Europeans themselves 'given the problems that are on the agenda of both the EU and the European continent as a whole'. 'Just imagine, there will be such a recommendation about the non-recognition of the elections. Another very serious stone will be cast at the development of our relations with this part of the planet,' Zakharova said."

She also dropped a hint that if the EU expects Russia to help with the migration issue related to the Afghan crisis that the EU ought to think hard about endorsing the EP's stupidity.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 17:48 utc | 244

For me, living through Disco in the greater San Francisco Bay Area was lots of jazz/funk/rock combo bands like Tower of Power, Cold Blood and many others that drowned out the Bee Gees. I recall lots of great times, dancing, womanizing, and not having to worry about death from sex that chilled that entire scene with the onset of the 1980s. No, I'm not forgetting the very vibrant Punk scene either, although that wasn't my bag. Tower of Power still tours and still sounds awesome as many of its songs are now timeless standards. Here's one of them, "You're Still a Young Man".

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 17:57 utc | 245

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 16:41 utc | 239

The mad house syndrome has infected both sides of the Atlantic, Europe is following its boss path towards irrelevance if not worse. Today Borrell tells the E. Parliament that dealing with Russia is based on three premisses, "push back, constrain, engage". Push back? where to, the Urals? and then watch the newspeak, after pushing back and constraining engage, who in his right state of mind is going to engage with you -unless he has in mind military engagement- when you propose pushing back and constraining as your base method of dealing with a supposed parter and neighbor? I feel so embarrassed that this guy comes from Spain, what a lousy imperial servant. NS2 could have been finished two years ago, the price of gas hit 950$ per unit today, that is 400% the price of contracted gas, and electricity prices in Europe are going through the roof, Enron and Texas style, add that to inflation in almost everything else and the outlook is truly worrisome, we are heading for trouble. The worst of the worst is at the helm.

Posted by: Paco | Sep 15 2021 18:15 utc | 246

When speculation about Putin’s successor placed Shoigu as a leading contender I thought that to be wrong, Russians are kind of tired of being lead by minorities representatives like Stalin, Khrushchev and Brezhnev, but now when it is a reality already that the world’s kitchen is in Asia and that five centuries of Atlanticism are over it makes a lot of sense. Shoigu comes from Tuva, the geographic center of Asia and he is proposing to turn Russia’s back away once and for all from a Europe that has tried to subdue Russia for centuries, with no avail but terrible price to pay for Russians. If I would have to bet on anyone as successor, Shoigu is the man.

Posted by: Paco | Sep 15 2021 18:26 utc | 247

Much from the 70's has been channeled in and fed into a political processing plant, processed, then emerging reshaped as woke.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 15 2021 18:32 utc | 248

Pre-Russian Election meddling by US and EU funded NGO's.
The "Opposition" groups which have been identified, deny active participation.

Sorry. I can only link to the twitterer home page, so please scroll down to Sept 14th. (English subtitles). Planned Modus operandi and I presume that Soros has already made a lot of lovely coloured flags. I wonder which colour they have chosen - I'm told that mauve with a little touch of revolting green is this years "woke" colour.

"Our job is to show these elections are illegitimate… Unfortunately, there are fewer violations… So we have written instructions to get all of you kicked out of voting stations, to show these elections are illegitimate” ETC.

“Yabloko” opposition party, whose representative was spotted at the event, now claims they had no idea what the lecture would be about and that they wouldn’t have gone if they had known
ODIHR, whose logo is on the projector screen, has said this “event” had nothing to do with them. USAID-supported Golos has still not responded

karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 16:41 utc | 239
The Russians have blocked the extension of the UN's mission in Libya.
Borrell wants to be king of the E-Union castle. He is just not good enough for the post. In fact he and the Lithuanian lot are paddling out of their depth in deep waters. Lithuania has already royally screwed up it's relations with Russia (Diplomats thrown out) and upset China. What more do they want?
Obviously he doesn't want a repeat of the Brexit by any other member. So alternative policies by the rest of the European countries must be squashed. I reckon long term, that is going to be very counter-productive.

Posted by: Stonebird | Sep 15 2021 19:15 utc | 249

Paco @246--

Thanks for your reply! In his last essay, Crooke cited The Telegraph’s International Business Editor, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, about the EU's very troubling financial issues which I repeat in full:

“Germany’s long-simmering anger with the European Central Bank (ECB) is again coming to the boil. It is hard to justify perennial [QE] and negative rates when German inflation is near 4pc – and rising. Political realities are forcing the ECB … to prepare for bond tapering sooner than it wants … in order to head off a bust-up with Europe’s anchor power [Germany].

“[This means] it will have to start pulling away the shield that has protected the high-debt Club Med states from market forces for almost seven years, and that has conveniently covered their entire borrowing requirements under the cloak of “monetary policy”. It is this monetary tightening in conjunction with parallel moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve that poses the chief risk to overheated global asset markets, not the virus’ Delta variant.

What is different this time [from past German grumblings], is that inflation can be felt everywhere – gefühlte Inflation – and parts of the German economy are patently overheating … German irritation should not be underestimated: The German Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) this week published an extraordinary paper [Link at Original], more or less alleging that ECB governors from the high-debt states are exploiting QE in order to bail out their own insolvent governments – and doing so in violation of EU treaty law”.

Given that, Crooke concludes:

"Events are nearing the point where Germany must either challenge this process, or accept that it has lost control of the Euro, and together with other northern ‘frugal’ Euro-states, pull out [Link at original]."

The link is to this long ZeroHedge article saying the EU is in crisis but nobody's saying anything about it thanks to coming German elections. The inflation you note is having a very big impact that's a direct result of Outlaw US Empire's causing NS2's construction delay for over a year. The spike in energy prices may be shortlived; but as the Enron Crime showed, such spikes can still be very destructive to already desperate businesses. When will the dam break seems the only remaining question. I'm rather surprised this situation hasn't seen more discussion at MoA.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 19:39 utc | 250

Stonebird @249--

Thanks for your reply. Looks like the long term is going to happen really soon given what's detailed @250 and its sources.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 19:42 utc | 251

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 15 2021 19:39 utc | 250

Thanks for the links, I'd read Crookes's already. About Germany elections, I feel like probably a Canadian or Mexican feels facing a US election, I do not vote but for sure it will have consequences for me. And it does not look good. Concerning EU officials, I can only judge by the local ones that “made” it since basically it is a very privileged bureaucratic caste and they all come from failed national projects, basically yes men sent to a paradisiacal cementery of elephants.

Posted by: Paco | Sep 15 2021 21:01 utc | 252

@Roger #69
The monetary theory formula you noted was clearly ripped off from the ideal gas law.
But the difference is: there is no actual proof that the monetary formula is in any way meaningful or a law.
Just another bullpucky construct from the most discredited of modern academics: economics.

Posted by: c1ue | Sep 13 2021 15:13 utc | 102

No. The Quantity Theory of Money or QTM (MV = PY) was first stated by Copernicus in 1517: the Ideal Gas Law (PV = nRT) was first expounded by Clapeyron in 1834.

The QTM is an identity but is generally useless practically since adherents have to assume that the velocity of money (V) is constant and that output (Y) is at potential GDP ("full employment") in order to get their conclusion that increasing the money supply (M) only results in increasing the level of prices (P).

In real life, V varies (i.e., is not constant) and Y < Potential Y.

Posted by: spudski | Sep 17 2021 17:50 utc | 253

Revision: Y < Potential Y unless the economy is overheated, i.e., Y temporarily exceeds Potential Y (not sustainable.)

Posted by: spudski | Sep 17 2021 17:54 utc | 254

I'm still thinking about that Bossche final post, james. And I am wondering what you thought of it. I ought to add by saying that circumstance brought me to ride the other day with my neighbor, who'd very kindly offered to drive me on an errand. A conversation began (as they often do) about vaccination. I never bring this up myself, as the subject depresses me. But here we were, he unmasked and I masked, so he said that he was glad Biden was mandating the vaccine for federal workers (at the time that was news.) I replied that might cause many to quit rather than be vaccinated, and well, the conversation degenerated from there on. We didn't come to insulting one another, though my name was pronounced with severity at some points in the conversation. Coming back, I double masked.

I wonder five years from now, if we are both still alive, what the conversation might be. I don't think I will want to ride with him till then.

Posted by: juliania | Sep 18 2021 3:20 utc | 255

@ juliania | Sep 18 2021 3:20 utc | 255

i am sorry to hear of your personal story on that... i am like you and have told my friends, brother in particular who is now living with us - that i don't want to talk about covid.. he shared the link with me.. believe it or not, i am only half way thru! i have been preoccupied with a bunch of musical projects and responsibilities... the music has helped keep my mind off conversations swirling around covid... i relate to what bossche has to say... frankly, i think it is just too soon to know how this is all going to shake out.. my basic belief is that we love one another and be kind to each other... i don't think whether someone does or doesn't believe a particular way ought to step in the middle of that.. maybe i am naive! i see too many people hurting in all this... life is about more then suffering... we need to find joy where we can and not obsess about negative stuff... simple philosophy - i know.. but one that i aspire for... i am working on some original songs for 3 horn arrangement - trumpet, alto and tenor, with rhythm section - piano, bass and drums... i have a project now mondays that is focused on that... i have a number of other projects coming up and on the go too.. i am going to get a holiday for a week beginning next weekend and then back to focusing on the other 2 musical projects... try to remain on good terms with your friend, even if it seems hard at the moment... cheers james

Posted by: james | Sep 18 2021 4:12 utc | 256

@ john | Sep 15 2021 11:42 utc | 235

the dancing is impressive.. thanks john... reminds me of the dancing in this video...

Posted by: james | Sep 18 2021 4:18 utc | 257

Posted by: james | Sep 18 2021 4:18 utc | 257

Time to get ready for love.... nice clip, since it's morning coffee time I guess this is going to be a lovely Saturday.. great music and great way to start my day, yes, ready for love.

Posted by: Paco | Sep 18 2021 6:03 utc | 258

@ paco! ha ha! i am just getting ready for a short walk, some reading and then bed!! enjoy the day my friend..

Posted by: james | Sep 18 2021 6:19 utc | 259

US starting to pullout of Iraq. According to the piece, US will be leaving small numbers in Iraq for "intelligence sharing"
Depending on what 'small numbers' means, US forces in Syria may start to feel a bit isolated.

The two sides agreed to reduce the combat units from the military bases in Ayn al-Asad in the Anbar province, and Erbil in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan.

The reduction of US units will be completed by the end of this month, and the remaining units will be for support, equipment, and intelligence sharing purposes, it added.

The meeting was part of what was agreed upon during the US-Iraqi Strategic Dialogue in July, when the two sides agreed to withdraw all American combat troops from Iraq by December 31, 2021.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 18 2021 6:28 utc | 260

@spudski #253
Thank you for the exposition.
However, the QTM is no more an indicator of it being a law or a scientific fact than the Drake equation: which is to say it is unverified and unverifiable.
Unverified and unverifiable statements are no different than religious dogma.

Posted by: c1ue | Sep 19 2021 15:37 utc | 261

Thanks, c1ue @261

QTM as a theory is of no use practically/analytically and I believe that was your point: I agree wholeheartedly.

Many, far too many in my view, monetarists have based extremely right wing - and harmful - views based on treating QTM as a theory. It is very useful to these evildoers in supporting austerity and non-interventionist policies that are only good for the PTB.

"QTM theory" deserves all, and more, of the denigration that it gets.

Unlike the Ideal Gas Equation which is of great use.

At the risk of losing all goodwill, I must point out that technically - as an identity - it is true by definition. (The definition of "identity" is something that is true by definition.)

In QTM, the definition of V and the fact that it is not constant, make the identity both true and useless. (Typically, the evidoers also assume that the economy is AT full employment and, AT THE SAME TIME, use it to conclude that expansionary monetary policy is useless when the economy is operating BELOW full employment!)

Unlike some other identities (e.g., some of those which apply to National Income Accounting and serve as useful checks in practice).QTM is of no value at all for either analysis or policy guidance - notwithstanding that's exactly what many neocon cranks have "used" it for. (The Chicago boys in Pinochet's Chile loved this stuff.)

QTM is not a theory in any sense of the word.

Cheers and good health and happiness to you - I enjoy your posts.

Posted by: spudski | Sep 19 2021 19:35 utc | 262

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