Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 20, 2021

The Fallout From The AUKUS Deal

The AUKUS deal allowed Australia to cancel an order for diesel driven submarines from France by taking up a U.S. and British offer to eventually acquire nuclear driven submarines.

It is not clear at all that Australia will find the money to actually pay for nuclear submarines. These are 50-100% more expensive that conventional ones. Australia also wants to make sure that at least 60% of the price flows back to Australian manufacturing. But there are no companies in Australia who have experience with work on nuclear technology. It is also unlikely that the U.S. or UK would let Australia gain such capacity.

There is also little chance that any of the envisioned new boats will be ready before 2040. By then Taiwan will likely be under Beijing's control and the naval primacy of China in the South China Sea will only have grown. The so far declared time frame and purpose of those boats is thereby questionable.

That may well be because the real plan is a different one:

The short-term leasing of nuclear-powered submarines from the UK or the US is being considered by the Morrison government but the Coalition insists nuclear weapons won’t be based in Australia.

The finance minister, Simon Birmingham, and the defence minister, Peter Dutton, confirmed in seperate interviews on Sunday that leasing submarines from the Aukus allies could be a stop-gap solution until Australia takes delivery of its own – potentially in the 2040s.

“The short answer is yes,” Dutton said when asked on Sky News about leasing vessels.

Birmingham said leasing arrangements would not necessarily “increase the number of submarines and the capability across all of the partner nations” but would help with training and information sharing.

“Doing so may provide opportunities for us to train our sailors, provide the skills and knowledge in terms of how we operate,” he told the ABC.

[It would help] provide the platforms for us to upgrade the infrastructure in Perth, that will be necessary for the operation of these submarines. I expect we will see … lease arrangements or greater joint operations between our navies in the future that sees our sailors working more closely and indeed, potentially on UK and US vessels to get that skills and training and knowledge.”

Perth will thereby be build up into a base that is compatible with the likely permanent stationing of U.S. nuclear submarines. These carry nuclear weapons.

The 'leased' boats, or at least their propulsion parts, would of course be still manned by U.S. or British sailors. The Australians already have problems retaining crews for their existing submarines. The few that will be available for the 'leased' boats will not be enough to run them. The Australians would pay largely for the privilege of being guests on board of doubtlessly U.S. commanded submarines.

The Australian government also plans to buy a number of expensive stand off missiles and long range weapons from the U.S. This will further integrate its forces into U.S. plans for war on China.

As I wrote in a previous piece:

This is a huge but short term win for the U.S. with an also-ran booby price for Britain and a strategic loss of sovereignty and budget control for Australia.

The loss of Australian sovereignty, as far as it existed, is obvious. Its new plans, like previous anti-China moves, will also have bad economic consequences. Talks about a free trade agreement with the EU will now be halted:

"One of our member states has been treated in a way that is not acceptable, so we want to know what happened and why," [European Commission President Ursula] von der Leyen said, adding that the situation must be clarified "before you keep on going with business as usual."
...
The European Union was Australia's third largest trading partner in 2020, according to the European Commission. Goods trade between the two amounted to €36 billion ($42 billion) that year while trade in services was worth €26 billion ($30 billion) in 2019.
...
The threat to an EU trade deal comes at a time when Australia is looking to develop new export markets after relations with China, its largest trading partner, soured recently.

Australian coal, wine, barley and beef have all already been affected by trade tensions with China, and experts say that AUKUS has antagonized Beijing even further.

China is still Australia's largest trading partner. The main Australian export product to China is iron ore. But that trade is now also in deep trouble:

The price of iron ore, Australia’s biggest export, has continued to plunge as top customer China steps up moves to cut its steel output and reduce carbon emissions for the third straight month.

After hitting a record-breaking $US230 a tonne in May, the key steel-making material has had its value slashed in half and is now trading below $US110 a tonne, hammering the share prices of the ASX-listed mining heavyweights BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue.

There are additional reasons why China's need for iron ore, and therefore its price, will go down. The near crash of China's cash strapped property group Evergrande will bring a pause to China's building boom. China is also recycling more and more steel from old infrastructure and thereby needs less raw iron ore input even while it continues to build new factories. The iron ore China still needs will soon come from Africa:

The top focus for China’s diversification push is Guinea. An impoverished but mineral rich country in West Africa. A 110 km range of hills called Simandou is said to hold the world’s largest reserve of untapped high-quality iron ore.
...
The project to develop Simandou has been split into four blocks. China holds either a direct or indirect stake in every one of them. The area holds an estimated 2.4 billion tons of ore graded at over 65.5%.

“Extraction of Simandou’s iron ore reserves would transform the global market and catapult Guinea into an iron ore export powerhouse alongside Australia and Brazil,” Lauren Johnston, a research associate at the SOAS China Institute of the University of London, told Nikkei.

If China unlocks Simandou’s reserves and drives a drop in international iron ore prices, “it could see selective commodity markets increasingly driven by intra-developing country dynamics,” Johnston said.

China would find such waters easier to navigate than having to do business with Quad member Australia.

(The recent coup in Guinea is unlikely not change these plans.)

Australia's extraction boom fueled by China's rise is coming to an end. The country will have to cut its budget and will need to seek a new economic model.

But why did I call this a "huge but short term win" for the U.S.?

It is a win in that the U.S. has gained a submarine base in Australia and will get paid for using it. This looks well if the intent is to wage a cold war on China. It is doubtful that this is a necessary strategy and it is equally doubtful that it can be successful. The weapons manufacturers will of course still love it.

But it is a only a short term win in the sense that the U.S. will lose many of its current and potential future partners over it. It has degraded its QUAD partner India and Japan to second tier status. It has increased suspicion in Indonesia, Malaysia and even Singapore of eventual nefarious plans against them:

In particular, Indonesia and Malaysia have come out strongly against Australia’s plan to acquire a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines with the help of the US and Britain. Even Singapore, Australia’s most reliable ally in the region, has expressed concern.
...
If anything, the Aukus move reinforced the widely held perception that Australia’s mantra of being “part of the region” is, in fact, “empty talk”. Australia has firmly signalled its intentions to put its Anglo allies in the US and Britain first.

A former British ambassador to France predicts trouble for NATO:

Peter Ricketts said Canberra's decision to abandon a contract with Paris for diesel-powered subs in favour of nuclear-powered ones from Washington drove a wedge between the allies and weakened the transatlantic alliance.

"I think this move certainly undermines French confidence in NATO and NATO allies, and therefore reinforces their feeling that they should be driving for European strategic autonomy," he told AFP.

"I think that can only be damaging to NATO, because NATO depends on trust. The repair work needs to begin urgently."

EU foreign ministers are due to discuss the new defence pact signed between the United States, Australia and Britain, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly Monday.
...
Ricketts, who was permanent representative to NATO in 2003-2006, said France would view the row as "a turning point" in relations with the United States and Britain.

"It's reinforced a feeling in Paris that I pick up that the Americans are increasingly turning their back on European security allies and focusing on their confrontation with China," he added.

France, Germany and other European countries want to be economic partners of China. They see the U.S. attempts to launch a new cold war as a completely unnecessary diversion from other problems. U.S. efforts to keep the Europeans 'in line' with its plans will become increasingly difficult.

Overall the U.S. has won a base and a small partner in its hopeless endeavor to subdue the four times larger China but has lost trust and support in huge parts of the rest of the world. It is a strategic error with long term consequences.

 

Posted by b on September 20, 2021 at 18:22 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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The war crimes committed by the US Australian vassals in Afghanistan, as well as the revelation that Canberra supported the coup d'état in Chile, confirm the sad role played by a colony founded by British convicts and undesirables in the world. They are indeed the enemies of humanity.

Posted by: gabriel moyssen | Sep 21 2021 5:50 utc | 101

@Roger | Sep 21 2021 4:56 utc | 95

A full Japanese victory over the US navy in the Pacific would have given China, India, Australia etc. longer wars.

The main problem with the US was their MIC wanting to take egoistic advantage of a WW II victory as Eisenhower indicated in his 1961 farewell speech. Others would have too, given a chance.

All too human, so the problem in Homo Sapiens psychology.

Posted by: Antonym | Sep 21 2021 5:52 utc | 102

Moon of Alabama was mentioned on RT in relation to the submarine sales.

https://youtu.be/WwAkWJVCY9s

Posted by: Jake "the snake" Rob | Sep 21 2021 6:01 utc | 103

gabriel moyssen 100

the anglosphere deep state is the enemy of humanity.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 6:07 utc | 104

imo

Aboriginal people were regarded as part of the native fauna until the sixties. Children to gin jockeys were taken from their mothers and brought up as 'humans'.
That is our history.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 6:14 utc | 105

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 6:14 utc | 104

A very leftist academic observation——and also absolutely right (regardless of the milk content of your coffee preference) ;)

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 21 2021 6:21 utc | 106

Patroklos

There is no left or right. Only what is.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 6:23 utc | 107

Posted by: Antonym | Sep 21 2021 5:52 utc | 101

A full Japanese victory over the US navy in the Pacific would have given China, India, Australia etc. longer wars.

Without the Chinese tying down Japan US Navy couldn't have won the Pacific War outright. Without the Chinese tying down 1.5 million Japanese soldiers in China proper, US would have been driven out of west Pacific. Japanese in China, on the other hand, were in retreat on most fronts in China north of the Yangtze River by the second half of 1944. Their ouster from China proper was only a matter of time, in a matter of course. But these facts are seldom taught in western schools, nor Indian ones. By the way, Indians never fought Japan. It was Chinese fighting Japan in the Burma and India theater.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Sep 21 2021 6:25 utc | 108

Peter AU1 104

A bit more complicated than that.

From the Office for Women webpage of the Government of South Australia:

Aboriginal men living in South Australia had the right to vote since the passing of the South Australian Constitution in 1856. While the right to vote under colonial laws was extended to South Australian Aboriginal women in 1894, they were often not informed of this right or supported to enrol to vote. In some cases, Aboriginal people were actively discouraged from enrolling or voting.
[...]
The 1902 Commonwealth Franchise Act removed Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people’s right to vote in Federal elections. This right was reinstated in the 1962 Commonwealth Electoral Act, however it was not until the 1967 Referendum that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people were included in the census.

Posted by: Kukulkan | Sep 21 2021 6:27 utc | 109

@ Hal Duell | Sep 20 2021 22:29 utc

I was going to give the same answer to Sushi. Obviously a case of great minds thinking alike.

Posted by: RoHa | Sep 21 2021 6:28 utc | 110

And, yes, that means that in South Australia, Aboriginal women had the right to vote before American women of any ethnicity gained that right.

Our history isn't all just kowtowing to our Imperial masters.

Posted by: Kukulkan | Sep 21 2021 6:31 utc | 111

Patroklos

A greek sounding name. all bar one of my forebears came out here on british emigration schemes for the poor. basically offshoring their poor. the one was a convict who apart from not sending bhis kids to school at harvest time never offended again. His wife was sent out here as a fourteen year old servant girl. Tracing my surname back, my great great grandfather was born on the boat out to Australia. All came for and had a better life.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 6:39 utc | 112

The origins of the duopoly... The shearers who would pedal their bikes to the sheds on squatters runs, the young men of capital - the labor party originated at barcaldine in the shearers strike. Shit kickers vs the men capital. Liberal vs labor.
Now there one and the same only difference the lib fly the the monarchs flag, the whatever they are now fly the rainbow flag.
The duopoly Rainbow flag along side the union jack with a few stars.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 6:49 utc | 113

Yeah Right #63

100% correct assessment

Posted by: m | Sep 21 2021 7:06 utc | 114

Kukulkan

Thanks for that bit of history. I had read SA was not a brit colony and a lot of immigrants of all nationalities headed there.
In tas in the early years bounties were paid on black scalps same as native dog scalps. Wiped out both.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 7:16 utc | 115

Why does the U.S. need a nuclear submarine base in Australia? Nuclear submarines have essentially infinite range and the U.S. doesn’t have any diesel submarines. It doesn’t really make Australia any more vulnerable to attack, since Australia is already a base for U.S. intelligence-gathering and communications systems, but it doesn’t seem to make the U.S. more capable of attacking China either. It seems simply a stunt carried out for the sake of the stunt, perhaps to reassure the boobs who bother to vote back home, like most of the U.S. “human rights” propaganda about the Taliban.

Posted by: MFB | Sep 21 2021 7:42 utc | 116

I think France needs to know its place. Be a good loyal little dog. Just do as it is told.

Just like the Mistral deal with Russia.

Cheers!

Posted by: Andy V | Sep 21 2021 7:48 utc | 117

@ Oriental Voice 107

Check out the battle of Imphal - India in March 1944: https://www.battleofimphal.com/the-battle/the-warring-sides

Many Indians died on both sides of this battle: those aligned with their British colonial overlords believing the NAZIs and Japanese imperial military were worse & those who joined Japan to fight the British. Very few Chinese around at this battle.

Posted by: Antonym | Sep 21 2021 8:15 utc | 118

Or The battle of the Tennis Court(!): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Tennis_Court
Or the battle of Kohima.
In general: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Indian_Army#Second_World_War

Posted by: Antonym | Sep 21 2021 8:34 utc | 119

I doubt if there will be any major war. Who wants one? This alliance seems to be designed to piss off China but what it really does is make sure that Aus cash goes to USUK and not France and makes Aus resources available to USUK as China won’t want them. If France in its fit of pique causes the EU Aus free trade pact to go down, that’s another win for USUK as Aus will become more dependent on trade with them.

The US gets more bases in Aus to which it can fall back from S Korea et al so when the inevitable happens and China takes back Taiwan. The US can maintain the pretence that they can create their own reality. And we here can judiciously study their moves which we know are the dying throes of an empire.

Aus can believe it is is protected from China, when the reality is they are not worth the hassle. All China wants is the recognition of its right to historic territory, which does not include Aus. If that changes, then it’s time to get worried, but I suspect the Chinese are too wise to be seduced by dreams of world domination through means other than economic.

Posted by: Phil Espin | Sep 21 2021 8:41 utc | 120

@Biswapriya Purkayast | Sep 21 2021 4:42 utc | 92

Amerikastan may use these subs to blockade the Straits of Malacca, which I have long been saying would be blockaded (along with maybe Gibraltar and the straits between Sweden and Denmark, whatever they're called)

Øresund

as part of an economic war against China and Russia. It will certainly not be mindless enough to take either Russia or China, let alone both, on in open combat.

Something like that would be an all out war against "allies" in Europe.

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 21 2021 10:06 utc | 121

The Ancien Empire - with its Brigades under General USA, Colonel Blimp England and privates Australia , NZ and Canada - really fancies its chances of snatching victory out of jaws of defeat in the EU, as the steady hand of Merkel is removed and they hope to install the woke green goddess forged in their NeoCon furnaces with the Orcs. They also expect and hope Macron will be able to retain his position through election rigging (a long shot that the French Peoples will not allow to stand through their historical hot blooded revolutionary character I hope - and Barnier).

The Australians were never a ‘Peoples’ in their own right - being Transported slaves from the U.K. initially under false criminal charges, augmented postwar with many a orphan equally sent over and a few who were encouraged to migrate through most of the remainder of the last century. Now it has been assumed that there are enough ‘Europeans’ and already way to many Asians, to keep the ‘purity’ alive. Didn’t work in Rhodes’ Country or in emerging South Africa.
Ain’t working in the Bolivarian South America’s.
Unlikely to retain the influences in the wider Africa and MENA - except for a few few City states ‘agreed’ with a few tribal Arabs who were given these lands to negotiate away immediately.
And it certainly will not retain the South Asian and Pacific Dreams.
The roll back will go back to when the Popes were required to draw a line on the Map (probably of Chinese origin) to split the World into ‘East’ and ‘West’ for Spain and Portugal kingdoms with funds from the Old Bankers to ‘conquer’

Nuclear hot war with China? Based from Australia? That would destroy all life on Earth??
Maybe should go and re-read Neville Shutes ‘On The Beach’

Wake up Oz - you ain’t Crocodile Dundee impressing the Yankee whore with your big knife submarine in your pants.

Posted by: D.G. | Sep 21 2021 10:16 utc | 122

Paul | Sep 21 2021 3:59 utc | 82

Short reply about the Kokoda trail. The ridge where the Japanese were stopped was so narrow that it could be defended by about 9 soldiers. It was so steep on both sides.

The "trail itself", was a trek that crossed about 14 rivers and was full of leeches. Friends who crossed it (for pleasure!) came back exhausted with blisters and socks full.

Rabaul PNG. was the only base that never surrendered during the war. Too many tunnels, and it would have been a staging post for the Japanese. Bombing made little difference.
**

The Japanese were considered mad by the locals. Germans strict but "just".
**

Patroklos:
In the 70's and 80's the Art scene and other cultural scenes were actually very good. (Even before). They were said to be "parochial" or similar but were different and worked on a different basis than Europe/US. I thought some were very good. Put it down to a superiority complex by the UK ! They didn't get the recognition they deserved.
***

All for now.

Posted by: Stonebird | Sep 21 2021 11:11 utc | 123

As a Kiwi (well more kea than kiwi as some like to say) I feel the need to express how enjoyably smug i feel about this aukus stuff - couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people (countries)! I have particularly enjoyed the ill feeling between the UK and France. And that with the Afghanistan withdrawal as well.


Much to appreciate as the anniversary of a day I regard sacred approaches - 30 September (2015).


Especially for MOA's premier sovok, vk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9rsxFaq6Ig

(I am definitely part of the "we love Jacinda" team (conditional on how covid is further navigated))

Posted by: tucenz | Sep 21 2021 11:30 utc | 124

War is very possible, empire's win condition is economics not military conquest. So long as China's setback is greater than empire, then it is a win.

It won't be nuclear, China's no first use policy will guarantee the empire won't need to nuke so long as the damage is predominantly contained to East Asia/South East Asia.

China's missiles are likely aimed at military installations, perhaps some key factorys/industries. The empire has no qualms with civilian targets eg Shenzhen.

The 99% (in America) will suffer the economic fallout, but so long as they are conditioned to believe it is a "just war" and necessary, their hatred will be directed at China. They are already primed.

The elite, not the 1%, is a super minority and will ultimately be unaffected.

Taiwan is a guaranteed flashpoint, they just need to figure out if it is feasible to do enough damage.

Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Australia are sacrificial pawns, the American heartland is what counts.

--

On a lighter note, Happy Mid-Autumn Festival yo.

Posted by: awaiting approval | Sep 21 2021 11:38 utc | 125

I wonder what the effects of the Brexit-negotiations will be. That topic is supposed to be through and nominally the negotiations are over. De facto, however, they have been - in accordance with the wishes of the British government - transformed into a perpetual process.

Posted by: m | Sep 21 2021 12:00 utc | 126

@113 m
Speaking of negotiations: We should figure out who gets that letter. ;)

Posted by: m | Sep 21 2021 12:14 utc | 127

@115 MFB "Why does the U.S. need a nuclear submarine base in Australia?"

US attack submarines can sortie from Guam and Pearl Harbor to attack Chinese Sea Lines of Communication in the South China Sea all the way down to the South-East exit of the Strait of Malacca and the Sunda Strait.

But they would not like to pass through either of those bottlenecks to get to the "other side", much too narrow for comfort.

Those same subs can sortie from Fremantle and dominate the SLOC on that "other side".

So they can interdict shipping on EITHER side of those bottlenecks, which is obviously much preferred.

"Nuclear submarines have essentially infinite range"... yeah, but they don't have an unlimited number of torpedoes, nor to they have Star Trek style food replicators.

They have to go back to base for either, and when they do that THEY don't want to be the ones transiting through the killing grounds of the Strait of Malacca.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Sep 21 2021 12:17 utc | 128

This is more trolling by some Russians than a really serious proposal… Via a M.K Bhadrakumar tweet, sourced to Russian news site Vedomosti,

For Russia, [Australian submarine] scandal means the opening up of a new segment of the arms market.. Now that the US itself has decided to help build an entire nuclear submarine for Australia, they opened a new market for nuclear submarines

I don’t think Vietnam or Algeria are really interested in that kind of toys (the Iran way of missiles etc and autonomous vehicles seems more appropriate and way cheaper) but if does show that a side effect of that AUKUS deal is the undermining of the NPT.

Posted by: phiw13 | Sep 21 2021 12:25 utc | 129

@ Peter AU1

Peter is also a Greek (sounding) name: the rock. My handle is Achilles' double, one of the more interesting heroes in the Iliad: 'glory of ancestors/fathers' is a rough meaning.

Re: the Pacific war——my grandfather was a RAAF sparky and warrant officer on a Beaufort Bomber based out of New Guinea. The plane was lost doing weather recon in Jan '44, all on board MIA. Mum was 3 months old, he was 27. Not much of a story but I guess we all have bits and pieces of history in Oz.

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 21 2021 12:29 utc | 130

@96 Jen "Don't forget, the US and the UK must have dangled something nice and juicy and full of $$$ for our Scotty personally to sweeten the deal for him."

No, I don't believe that.

What is important to Morrison is getting re-elected. But that would be impossible if he just straight-up tore up the existing contract and told the South Australian Premier to take it or leave it.

So he has to **pretend** that Adelaide will still get to build submarines, only now they will be nuuuuuuuuuuclear submarines!, even though he doesn't believe it and has no intention on following through on that promise.

But the problem with THAT gambit is he needs Joe Biden and Boris Johnson to nod wisely and play along with him until the next election is over.

And the problem with relying on THAT is this: Joe Biden will want something in return for his play-acting.

Morrison will give him that which the US Navy most desires: a lease on a submarine base in Fremantle to dominate the approaches to the Strait of Malacca.

That's a prize of incalculable value to the US submarine force. It is so valuable that Joe Biden will be happy to play a song-and-dance routine with That Fellow From Down Under.

Heck, he might even take the trouble to learn Scottie's name, it really is that important.

But, no, no need for the USA to "sweeten the deal" for Scottie; just agreeing to play along is enough for Scottie to go giddy with excitement.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Sep 21 2021 12:45 utc | 131

@98 Paul "I think the Japanese were far too timid."

A recurring problem with the IJN in WW2.

There were two occasions when a Japanese fleet had swept past the defending fleet and had an American invasion fleet at their mercy, and both times they turned around and fled rather than take the bit between their teeth.

The first was at the Battle of Savo Island, when the commander of the Japanese cruiser force could have ended the Battle of Guadalcanal before it had even properly begun. He'd completely wiped out the American/Australia cruiser forces that were protecting the landing beach and then he..... turned around and left.

The second was at the Battle off Samar, when the only thing standing between the beachhead at Leyte and a fleet of Japanese battleships was a ragtag force of escort carriers and destroyer escorts. Had the Japanese swept on they could have ended the invasion of the Philippines before the American soldiers had got themselves ashore.

And what did he do? He turned around and sailed away.

The Japanese were bold in their execution, until it came to the very crunch time they had worked so hard to create. And then they just..... turn around and head the other way.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Sep 21 2021 12:55 utc | 132

@114 Peter AU1 "I had read SA was not a brit colony"

Incorrect. South Australia was not established as a PENAL colony, but it was definitely established as a British colony.

I grew up there, and we were taught that South Australia is the Land Of The Free Settlers.

"and a lot of immigrants of all nationalities headed there."

Indeed true. It was a "free colony", and its founding charter emphasized religious tolerance.

Adelaide therefore became to go-to place for European settlers (especially German) escaping persecution.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Sep 21 2021 13:07 utc | 133

I have often thought that Russia should lease nuclear missle silos to Syria, Iran, Yemen, Venezuela, .... Is this a step in that direction?

Would this not be considered proliferation?

Posted by: jared | Sep 21 2021 13:08 utc | 134

Surrogate war, served cold.

Western strategy is mostly jawbone.

Posted by: jared | Sep 21 2021 13:11 utc | 135

Thanks to Paul, Peter AU, Patroklos, Jen and others for the detailed view of the events in Australia.

I know I’m putting forward an ignorant view from the very very northern part of the Northern hemisphere but I just wanted to add a few notes. I know Canada is part of five-eyes and is considered the Anglosphere establishment, which it is, but it is more complicated than that. The province of Quebec, historical New France, a base for the dream of France of the Americas, is still very strong. Also, Canada shares a border with Russia. So Moscow does I get involved in Canadian affairs when it’s national security and/or interests are threatened. And it has an understood right to do so simply by geography. We have been told, by military leaks to the media, that in the event of an attack on Canada, Russia and the USA would stay out of it. The purpose of such an attack would be to simply conquer Canada, not to, like, incinerate the entire planet. I’m curious if China is in the same position with Australia? In Canada, (again military leaks to media) we’ve been warned that Europe wants us, and the tip of the spear could come from any European country. It’s a pan-European project, if you will (among ruling classes only).

I’ve also learned through the old military to media pipeline that some very powerful element in global politics hears nothing until “mushroom cloud” is spoken. No diplomacy, no negotiations, it’s all just blah blah blah blah blah mushroom cloud, then they start listening. I’m wondering if Australia is being targeted by this crowd, whoever they are exactly, I sure as heck don’t know. Thus the sudden interest in nuclear subs on Australian territory. … does the Australian military leak anything down under??

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Sep 21 2021 13:17 utc | 136

Amerikastan may use these subs to blockade the Straits of Malacca, which I have long been saying would be blockaded (along with maybe Gibraltar and the straits between Sweden and Denmark, whatever they're called) as part of an economic war against China and Russia. It will certainly not be mindless enough to take either Russia or China, let alone both, on in open combat.

I have sailed the South China Sea, Straits of Malacca, Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean.

The straits are too shallow for the operation of USA SSNs. By the time the base(s) in Australia are operational, it will be possible to track submerged submarines from space. Once that happens, NATO SSN(s) SSBN(s) will be shadowed 24/7 where ever they go. Operation in the South China Sea will be complicated by the numerous bases the Chinese constructed, and will construct on the reefs and cays there. The many thousands of Chinese auxiliaries (fishing boats) will further complicate matters.

It is most likely, that in the event of conventional war, the bases themselves will be destroyed by missiles, and the subs will be forced to operate without repair facilities until they are found and destroyed.

The above assumes that war lasts more than a few hours.

Afghanistan is more important than many believe. It has lots of iron ore among other minerals, and is in China's back yard. Russia has lots of iron ore and other minerals exportable to China, again in China's backyard. How long, exactly, will the US be able to field SSN(s) along China's SLOCs??? A few days??? Weeks??? I predict... not very long... How effective will US SSN(s) be against merchant ships doing 25 knots??? That is the current speed of today's cargo ships... Answer: not very...

I agree, this is a political ploy by Morrison to win the next election...

INDY

Posted by: George W Oprisko | Sep 21 2021 13:29 utc | 137

This begins to clarify the motivation behind brexit.
We knew it wasnt about the voters will.

So its the authoritarian east battling nwo of democratic west.

Posted by: jared | Sep 21 2021 13:29 utc | 138

m #126

Listen you tosser - no negotiations - you only appeared out of the woodwork less than 2 years ago. I've been posting for more than 5 years here albeit infrequently but verifiable if pushed as I keep records as does the site!

This whole situation with the submarines is not difficult to work out, particularly if you live in Australia and understand the politics.

No way Australia can support or manufacture nuclear submarines - no expertise - no facilities. It's all politics

The politics says - South Australia gets to keep the upgrading of collins class in the interim and the US gets a new naval base for leased nuclear subs at garden island south of Perth.

Naturally it will require federal legislation (and probably state as well) making garden island an 'overseas' embassy with its own 12 mile exclusion zone to bypass the 'nuclear weapons' thing in Australia which has been bubbling for over 40 years.

the beauty for the US is that Australia has to pay ror this nonsense. what a win, what could possibly go wrong?

Posted by: m | Sep 21 2021 13:30 utc | 139

@Yeah, Right

The problem with the thesis that it's all about Morrison's election is that he could lose if the truth about the missile basing was widely-known.

What's the Australian anti-war Movement like? I'll bet it's virtually non-existent. And it will stay that way because media focus on subs that won't be ready for more than a decade (whether French or American) and french pique misdirects from the missile-basing that happens NOW.

Morrison wins because of media manipulation that only 5-eyes intelligence/sarc can guaranty. People shrug instead of protest.

Rewarding Morrison with a certain election win is something that the Empire's 5-eyes would gladly do for a politician that does their biding but then he wouldn't have gotten where he is if there was any doubt that he wouldn't play along. And the French will be fine. They'll get paid-off and some special attention in other matters to smooth their ruffled feathers.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 21 2021 13:42 utc | 140

Clarifying @Sep21 13:42 @139

I think the "missile development" and "sub manufacturing" is really code for US missile and sub basing.

These are typical 5-eyes sly weasel words: When you've agreed to develop and manufacture these types of weapons, you've agreed to field them. The only real question is timing. USA can have subs and missiles operational in weeks or months while Australia takes years "developing" their own.

Given the pace of Chinese development, the Empire needs to act now. The only one fooled is the Western public. I'm quite sure that Russia and China know exactly what is going on.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 21 2021 13:55 utc | 141

@Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2021 19:20 utc | 9

It has degraded its QUAD partner India and Japan to second tier status.

I don't see how India and Japan feel slighted by a strengthening of the anti-China strategy that they each fully support. If anything they are encouraged by that.

Well, if there is any country that would benefit from conflict between America and China, it would certainly be India.

Despite its empty posturing about multipolarity, India is part of the America-led unipolar axis, as evidenced by its participation in the QUAD and its backing of the US puppet Ghani regime in Afghanistan, among other issues.

Even in terms of its inclusion in the SCO or BRICS groups, India increasingly acts as an American Trojan Elephant.

India is thus talking out of both sides of its mouth and playing both sides of the Eurasian Multipolar vs. Anglo Unipolar war.

While it is barely been reported by the Western “Free Press,” India and its Hindu neo-fascists have an ideology called Akhand Bharat, which calls for Indian colonization of all the lands from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Nepal and Myanmar to Sri Lanka and even into China (Tibet).

The Hindutva ideal of Akhand Bharat has held firm but its spatial, chronological extents remain hazy
https://www.firstpost.com/india/the-hindutva-ideal-of-akhand-bharat-has-held-firm-but-its-spatial-chronological-extents-remain-hazy-9313531.html

Akhand Bharat or Fictional Union of South Asian States
https://www.newsclick.in/Akhand-Bharat-Fictional-Union-South-Asian-States

'Amit Shah Has Plans to Form BJP Govts in Nepal, Sri Lanka': Tripura CM Biplab Deb
https://thewire.in/politics/amit-shah-has-plans-to-form-bjp-govts-in-nepal-sri-lanka-tripura-cm-biplab-deb

Akhand Bharat is an imperial--albeit delusional--Indian vision for a new Indian Empire or Hindu Raj.

And the primary obstacles to Akhand Bharat are … China (and Pakistan).

Put another way, India is much like NATO member Turkey with its own Neo-Ottoman delusions. Both of these nations are covertly encouraged to pursue these ambitions by the Anglo-American Axis states for their own Machiavellian agendas.

Posted by: ak74 | Sep 21 2021 14:10 utc | 142

Why does the U.S. need a nuclear submarine base in Australia? Nuclear submarines have essentially infinite range...
Posted by: MFB | Sep 21 2021 7:42 utc | 115

There are several possible answers.

The first answer is multi-layer defense. Consider how Gondor defended itself from Mordor. The capital had multiple complete walls surrounding it, and by the time Mordor broke through several of the, the King returned and Mordor got defeated. AUKUS/CAUKUS is one of those concentric lines, jolly for Australia, sorry for France for being excluded -- they are kept within the next line as we go out.

The second answer is survivability through replication. The empire needs more highly survivable bases for the doomsday weapon. Someone mentioned that near Perth there is a humungous device to broadcast commands to submarines, one of very few. Dr. Strangelove is not up-to-day technologically, but it gives the conceptual framework.

The third answer is the aristocratic nature of the Empire. Again, you can imagine concentric circles. In the aftermath of Brexit UK needs some crumbs for a good cheer among its elite (empires crumble when the elites grew morose and introverted), and bestowing a crumb taken away from Unmitigated Galls will cheer UK elite enormously. A wise emperor provides such diversions to his aristoi to foster competition and backstabbing.

The fourth answer is that the crumbs taken away from Unmitigated Galls were also received by the innermost elite (in USA).

The aristocratic empire logic requires a subtle gradation of boons and poxes, the more zealous the fealty, the more reliable the allocation of plums.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 21 2021 14:26 utc | 143

Re: Akhand Bharat, means unified India, it's extent of British India Imperialism, here's a graphic with some dates
https://imgur.com/a/K30OXpH

Posted by: awaiting approval | Sep 21 2021 14:38 utc | 144

@ awaiting approval.

"Re: Akhand Bharat, means unified India..."

The only catch is this: the Hindu fascist definition of "India" includes land from Afghanistan to Pakistan to Nepal to Bangladesh to Sri Lanka to parts of China.

Posted by: ak74 | Sep 21 2021 14:49 utc | 145

Piotr Berman @Sep21 14:26 #142: The first answer .. The second answer ...

The sixth answer is that Australia doesn't need a sub base. The agreement is really about missile basing.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 21 2021 14:58 utc | 146

Can we see the Crown? City of London? Is there a higher boss?
ALL Royals belong in jail. Problems solved.

Posted by: steve kelly | Sep 21 2021 14:58 utc | 147

What the hell do they need subs for anyway, they already are down under.

Posted by: Jörgen Hassler | Sep 21 2021 15:10 utc | 148

Put another way, India is much like NATO member Turkey with its own Neo-Ottoman delusions. Both of these nations are covertly encouraged to pursue these ambitions by the Anglo-American Axis states for their own Machiavellian agendas.

Posted by: ak74 | Sep 21 2021 14:10 utc | 141

Call them delusions or traditions (a thin line there), they do not need any encouragement from outside, and they also diverge from the neat arrangement of symbolic circles that can be drawn around Washington/Camp David center. On one hand, they these traditions stimulate them to pick some local fights convenient to the inner imperial circle, on the other hand, they foster the sense of their own, separate interests.

For example, Turkey has more cooperative interaction with Iran and Russia that the inner circle would like, and India has too many cooperative arrangements with Russia to her weaponry needs. Both are to tied to their own, separate interests to be undermined by the imperial influence, even if the waver in short term.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Sep 21 2021 15:12 utc | 149

@Posted by: ak74 | Sep 21 2021 14:49 utc | 144

Yes I understand, I didn't explain myself well, the Hindu fascist have some belief as the inheritors to the former entire extent of the British occupation of the subcontinent. I'm assuming some Hindu fascist made that graphic, earliest date (reverse image lookup) 5 years ago.

Posted by: awaiting approval | Sep 21 2021 15:17 utc | 150

@ Posted by: awaiting approval | Sep 21 2021 14:38 utc | 143

These historical maps/frontiers are worth nothing nowadays, because the nation-state is a purely legal-bureaucratic entity, established by the so-called Westphalian System. The Westphalian System doesn't take historical and cultural factors in consideration.

The concept that nation-states have the right to the territory where their "cultural/racial identity" is in is a post-WWI device the Europeans fabricated in order to fragment the defeated Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires.

The nation-state is bound by its sovereignty and sovereignty only. It doesn't need anything else. If religious, idiomatic, ethnic and cultural homogeneity were required, then very few nation-states in existence today would be legitimate.

Posted by: vk | Sep 21 2021 15:32 utc | 151

Ah so it become clear of what the plan is, leased subs in Australia until their subs are ready to be deployed, I get the feeling that this AUKUS deal is going to cost the Aussies a hell of a lot of money over a long period of time.

The Aussie were used as cannon fodder at Gallipoli and they will be the patsies again against China, for there Western masters.

Posted by: Republicofscotland | Sep 21 2021 15:34 utc | 152

The yanks building a 250 million dollar fuel storage at Darwin.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-21/darwin-fuel-storage-facility-us-defence-construction-tender/100478894

The US government's Defence Logistics Agency has awarded the construction tender for the facility to Florida-based logistics, government, marine and energy solutions company Crowley Government Services.


Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 15:36 utc | 153

@Antonym | Sep 21 2021 8:15 utc | 117

[India fighting Japanese Imperial Army in battles of Imphal, Tennis Court, Kohima]

Non-Japanese casualties:
Battle of Imphal: 12,603 + 54,879***
Battle of the Tennis Court: 4604
Battle of Kohima: 4064

Total of non-Japanese casualties = 12,603 + 54,879 + 4,604 + 4,064 = 76,150

Chinese casualties in the Battle of Wuhan: 254,628

Therefore, China suffered three times more casualties in Wuhan than India did in all the battles you cited. Wuhan was only one engagement in a greater war; the total Chinese casualties in WW2 numbered in the millions. Can India claim to have expended anywhere near as much effort versus the Japanese Imperial Army as the Middle Kingdom did? I doubt it.

As usual, Antonym, you are being deceptive.


--------------

*** You say some Indians fought for the Japs in Imphal, so I count Japanese casualties as Indian here.

Posted by: Cyril | Sep 21 2021 16:08 utc | 154

@Posted by: Antonym | Sep 21 2021 5:52 utc | 101

It wasn't just the MIC, the decision to use the outcome of WW2 to become the predominant global power had already been made in 1941 and was a natural extension of the continuous expansion of US power over time "we have always been an expansionist power" as Theodore Roosevelt correctly stated. The US just worked out how to take control of other nations without invasion between the wars, in South America.

The Pacific War was triggered by the US when it stopped oil exports to Japan (the US had over 70% of global production at the time), triggering Japan to invade South East Asia in a resource grab. The US didn't want a stronger Japan threatening its interests in the Pacific, as with China now. At the time, the Philippines was a colony of the US and Asia heavily colonized by the Europeans. WW2 was all about global power, all the things that the Nazis and Japanese did had been done may times over by the allied powers. The other powers committed fratricide and gave global hegemony to the US, which it (I mean its elites) greedily grabbed and ran with.

"Tomorrow The World" by Stephen Wertheim, covers the US decisioning process from 1941 onwards.
"The War State" by Michael Swanson, cover the MIC and the Power Elite in the post-war period very well

"Empires Workshop LAtin America" by G. Grandin, covers the generalization of the covert and overt techniques tested in South America around the globe

Posted by: Roger | Sep 21 2021 16:30 utc | 155

Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 15:36 utc | 152

Fun, fun, storage facilities to "enhance" US capabilities - in a port leased to the Chinese? Apparently the US is seeing itself having a large permanent base in Darwin. Hot around there too.

Don't forget the other Chinese plans for Daru in PNG nearby. (Sea end of the projected gas pipeline from the Southern Highlands, but exactly where the start is, I am not sure)

I would have thought the whole straits area, as not good for submarines as it is too shallow. BUT, it is the key to East-to-west or vice-versa ship traffic for Australia itself.

Posted by: Stonebird | Sep 21 2021 16:33 utc | 156

@Posted by: Oriental Voice | Sep 21 2021 6:25 utc | 107 and Antonym

The "Battle for the Pacific" and the Burma campaign (which the Indians did fight in) were very small scale compared to the main theatre of war in China, just as the "Western front" was many times smaller then the Russian front. Inconvenient facts for our current overlords. The "Battle of the Bulge" was a skirmish compared to the "Battle of the Kursk Salient" for example.

The Russians also wiped out the Japanese army in Manchuria in a lightning strike very near the end of the war, Hiroshima and Nagasaki were aimed at them not the Japanese. The US had fully broken the codes and knew that the Japanese were desperate to surrender.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 21 2021 16:41 utc | 157

MFB @115, Piotr Berman @142

Why does the U.S. need a nuclear submarine base in Australia?

The US needs some place for China to nuke, instead of, say Los Angeles. Perth is perfect! It is 3300 km from Sidney with nothing but sea and kangaroos for thousands of miles.

China nukes Perth and kills a million Anglos. The US can annihilate China in revenge (and maybe Russia too).

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Sep 21 2021 16:42 utc | 158

@157 Hawaii has a pretty good ethnic mix and makes a great target.

Posted by: dh | Sep 21 2021 16:47 utc | 159

Stonebird 155

I think it would be mostly surface ships to the north, perhaps some smaller non nuclear subs for the shallower waters there and nuke subs based at Perth for the Indian ocean.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 16:50 utc | 160

France.

France has been shafted on numerous occasions by the US. Just a partial list of some of the countries that have had commercial relations cut off to favour US wishes.
Iran, Iraq, Russia, Lebanon, Syria. China. (Just for starters)

Russia => Total oil and Mistral. Power plants, planes and Trains make up most of other vectors to other countries.

So I reckon that it is NOT necessary for it to leave NATO. Just re-establish normal trading links with countries that it had links to before. This would cause MORE angst in the US than if it tries to make a "second" (or is it the third?) Army for Europe. The latter "armies" would be beneficial for the US arm industry, so you could almost expect them to applaud with glee the "go-it-almost" alone prospect.

(Third army? France would have then the financial problem of "payments" to NATO, to it's own original army and to a "New" EU land force.)
***

Now, the most horrific thing the French could do to stuff it to the US would be to join the SCO. (or the BRI?) Could be a lot more profitable in the long run.

Posted by: Stonebird | Sep 21 2021 16:51 utc | 161

@Posted by: Republicofscotland | Sep 21 2021 15:34 utc | 151

The ANZACS (Australia and New Zealand Corps), together with the Canadians (Dieppe for example!) were used as cannon fodder everywhere in WW1 and WW2. Then of course, there were the Gurkhas who were always given the hardest fighting for the benefit of their Sovereign. Imperialists are always happy to shed "lesser thans" blood for their imperial ambitions.

New Zealand seems to have learnt its lesson, the Nepalese (the Gurkhas) are still fighting for their masters, and the Aussies and us Canadian's haven't learnt a damn thing. Actually, in the case of Canada we unlearnt after staying out of Vietnam and Iraq. Chretien did roll on Afghanistan, then dickhead Harper actually ended the Canadian military presence (even a dickhead can get some things right it seems).

Posted by: Roger | Sep 21 2021 16:51 utc | 162

I am surprised they chose AUKUS...

a slight reordering makes

USUKA

And some letters: USUKAss

Posted by: c1ue | Sep 21 2021 16:54 utc | 163

@Posted by: ak74 | Sep 21 2021 14:10 utc | 141

A great observation, two big delusional spoilers (India and Turkey) on the Eurasian continent given succour by the Imperialists. Both are completely f**ked economically, as they are run by a bunch of kleptocrats who have none of the development ability of the Chinese elites. The Russians seems to play the same role for both, as the friend to India reminding it of reality and as the abused adult to Turkey reminding it to behave. For Turkey, it will be interesting to see what happens post-Erdogan. For India, I worry that the RSS now has its fascist claws fully onto the levers of power.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 21 2021 17:02 utc | 164

@Stonebird | Sep 21 2021 16:51 utc | 160

Now, the most horrific thing the French could do to stuff it to the US would be to join the SCO. (or the BRI?) Could be a lot more profitable in the long run.

Just veto next renewal of the Russia sanctions would do the trick.

Posted by: Norwegian | Sep 21 2021 17:05 utc | 165

Today, Sept. 21, Russtrat.ru says the French subs were over twice as expensive as the nuclear subs. Here's the machine translation:

"It was reported that the total value of the French contract for Australia eventually rose to $ 66 billion. With the construction of 12 diesel submarines, each of them would cost about $ 5.5 billion.

At the same time, the US multi-purpose Virginia-class nuclear submarine of the Block V modification costs the Pentagon $ 2.4 billion. Agree, to get one non-nuclear submarine for the price of two nuclear submarines, it looks unwise. Over time, the Australians, with the help of the Americans and the British, realized this."

Posted by: Cosimo | Sep 21 2021 17:10 utc | 166

My grandfather signed up for a few years in the trenches of France. At some point he wrote in his diary 'never again will we leave Australia to fight foreign wars'. He never spoke about his time there and asked my father not to sign up for WWII. Father inlaw did sign up for WWII and the only part of that he talked about was shooting down US planes until they got booted out. He didn't think much of the Americans.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 17:11 utc | 167

Norwegian | Sep 21 2021 17:05 utc | 164

Far too reasonable,

- so you are probably right.

Posted by: Stonebird | Sep 21 2021 17:19 utc | 168

Throughout our discussion of subs for Australia I've yet to see any mention of a movie whose plot centered on a particular sub, why it was in Australia, and the grim future its crew decided to face--On the Beach. At the linked page's bottom are links to sites where the film can be watched. I highly suggest that those who have never seen it do so for it reminds us of a reality we tend to push out of our minds.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 21 2021 17:19 utc | 169

karlof1 | Sep 21 2021 17:19 utc | 169

I have watched a newer (color) version of "On the Beach" on YouTube. It was an Australian production, I believe.

Anyone that talks about nuclear war with China (or anyone) should watch this. Very chilling.

Posted by: naiverealist | Sep 21 2021 17:37 utc | 170

karlof1 naiverealist

At some point in the not too distant future, I think Russia will make its presence felt as an ally of China. Russia faced down the US in a smaller way in Syria and Ukraine, but the speed at which they are rolling out next gen weapons, I think a major facing down will occur in the not too distant future.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 17:47 utc | 171

Oh what a tangled thread we weave

Posted by: ld | Sep 21 2021 17:48 utc | 172

Another informative piece by Bernhard. I will again reiterate that the first-rate analysis offered up here is being noticed far and wide.

Yesterday, on the RT America news segment with Scotty Hughes, guest Daniel McAdams, who is Ron Paul's right hand man, and a very credible commentator, made a point of mentioning the 'great analysis' on the Moon of Alabama website on the AUKUS issue.

The editors at Global Times also have referenced this site on several occasions, as have many others. I have to recall a very silly commenter here who started arguing with me last time I brought this up---claiming that 'no one' pays attention to some obscure little website.

Obviously this is not how the world works. Obscure or not, intelligent information is very difficult to come by in a sea of drivel that is today's information landscape. People do notice quality.

Anyway, I want to point to Martyanov's entry today because it is a meaty military-technical take, from a guy who is eminently qualified to speak to it. [Btw, he also starts with a hat-tip to Bernhard.]

He notes that there is likely going to be a leasing of US subs to Aus, in the very long interim before purpose-built boats appear, featuring domestic content.

Let's take a look at what is available in a short term. Granted, the Australian crews are getting ready or are already in training for running US nukes.

I can tell you immediately--do not forget good ol' Los Angeles-class SSNs. Many of them are either in conservation, reserve or are about to be moved there. There are currently, if to believe WiKi 28 active Los Angeles class SSNs and 1 expecting decommissioning.

SSNs 768 through 773 are reaching their 30 year old age but are still active and who knows what their fate will be with at least 8 Virginia-class SSNs being either under construction or announced.

Those Los Angeles subs will need to go somewhere and this time it might not be to the scrap yard....

So, there are options.

So that is an important element here, which is the TIMELINE. Aus may be operating nuclear subs much sooner than anyone is anticipating. As Martyanov notes:

I have to admit, all things considered, it does make at least some sense.

Of course, such an approach does not guarantee a success for a number of reasons, but keep in mind that anything based in Perth, as an example, becomes impervious to Chinese medium-range ballistic missiles because neither DF-21 nor DF-17 fly at 5,800 kilometers even when launched from China's south-most point. So, this is another key to this decision.

As for the impact on China of these Aus boats, Martyanov provides an illustrative image of just how concentrated marine traffic is, in a small number of sea lanes.

As you can see, any kind of nukes (SSNs) based in Australia have an excellent and fast access to SLOCs both in Indian Ocean and into the deep areas of South China Sea.

Operations on SLOCs are as old as navies themselves. China, obviously, depends on SLOCs and even 2-3 additional (Australian) SSNs with Harpoons and torpedoes on permanent patrol in the areas of interest can wreck a havoc on the flow of resources for China.

They will also attract serious Chinese resources in terms of ASW. I am not going to discuss now purely tactical and operational issues, but in the minds of US planners this all makes sense.

So this is certainly not the 'nothingburger' that various laymen commenters here have been claiming. [Never mind the science fiction fantasies of tracking subs 24/7 from satellites, that supposed technological 'breakthroughs' will deliver at some point.]

I will add here, and Martyanov makes this important point, that the MAJOR pillar of US strength is its very mighty submarine force, which right now consists of about 70 operational nuclear-powered boats.

The vast majority of them are nuclear attack subs, which number about 50. These include the venerable LA class, as well as Virginia class, and the Seawolf class, of which only three were built, and 26 canceled.

Now this is a truly formidable force. Russia fields only about eight such attack boats, although six more are under refit and modernization [Akula class], while five more of the newer Yasen class are under construction.

According to 60 Minutes, unnamed Pentagon officials claimed that Severodvinsk on her maiden deployment[33] "slipped into the Atlantic Ocean and for weeks evaded all of the attempts to find her" in the summer 2018.

Here again, Russia may have jumped ahead qualitatively, but the US still has a big lead in quantity.

A couple of the earlier Akula class are leased to India. So certainly there is a precedent to this kind of arrangement, and India has been leasing nuclear boats since the Soviet era. Martyanov notes:

If Russia and India can do that, US and Australia, who ARE brethren nations, certainly can. So, not really surprising in learning that the US will lease subs to Australia.

In fact, emotions aside, it is the only natural way to increase the submarine force against China in such a way that it strains Chinese and PLAN's resources and, in case of war, helps to shut down SLOC's which are still crucial for China.

Pure navalism, folks.

So that is pure realism, right there. Aside from the political fallout, which is a separate issue, and which B has very astutely laid out over the last several articles, the military-technical aspect is indeed very important.

Posted by: Gordog | Sep 21 2021 17:56 utc | 173

Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 17:11 utc | 167

During a war they do not leave much to private enterprise or individual ethical considerations.

Sometime after WWII, I knew a German in the UK who told me that he had his own anti-aircraft gun at the age of 14 to shoot the British. Nice Fellow believe it or not.
**

Family history is not always nice and neat. An Uncle fought with Montgomery in the desert. When he came back he found his wife had set up house with another guy. So with two children from one and one from the other - all three adults, and three children lived together. (Two connecting bedrooms for the adults). My father was scandalized, but didn't tell us kids why. I only found out later in life about the real setup. Ahh well, strange conditions make strange bedfellows.

Posted by: Stonebird | Sep 21 2021 18:04 utc | 174

Gordog

A major buildup of US bases in Au was started June 2020 so I would guess US buildup here is now well underway. As for subs and what they need for a base, I'm not sure, but apart from minor maintenance just a supply base and some brothels probably covers it.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 18:17 utc | 175


Asean was founded originally as Zopfan (Zone of Peace, Neutrality and Friendship), and the balance of power is delicate among the 10 member states.
On its southern fringe, Australia claimed to be part of its socio-economic matrix, a wannabe Asian nation.
But with the submarine deal, nuclear-enabled Oz has dropped that mask – which it never wore well or with ease anyway – and reverted to true form: a reactionary outpost of Western imperialism.
Asean, meet your new Aukus overlord – or welcome him back, in a couple of cases.
Australia is the tip of the spear for Empire’s disruption of an established nuclear-free zone and, by 2030, the world’s fourth largest economy, collectively.
How could pirates, looters and chancers, who have plied their trade over centuries, miss out on such a plum prize?
``Canberra will likely use nuclear-powered submarines to coerce Asean countries as a bargaining chip’’ – and that’s well before 2040, according to a crisp opinion piece by Xu Liping in GT.
2. Someone asked about pushing a wedge into the de facto Sino Russian alliance.
China is an agreement-capable country, unlike others.
The Treaty of Nerchinsk was the first accord between Eastward-bound Tsarist Russia and the newly-established Qing Dynasty of the Manchus that defined the boundaries between the neighbours.
It was the first treaty with a foreign power that did not necessitate the ceremonial kowtow from the other party, affirming equal status of both sides.
The demarcation lines were respected, till Qing weakened and Tsarist Russia wheedled away the Maritime province.
But China has never historically coveted Russian territory, though this premise is regularly hyped up as sort of hopeful spoiler in the Sino-Russian borscht.
China’s vision of the future is that humanity can rise together; the Anglo/Western stance is zero-sum – you must die, so I can thrive.
Which side will a wise Russia choose?
3. Tonight is the mid-Autumn festival, and the spirit of China’s resilience and universalism is best epitomized by the song, May We All Be Blessed with Longevity.
The lyrics are by the Song Dynasty poet Su Shi (Su Dongpo), in the `ci’ style, which can be read or sung.
The chanteuse Teresa Teng delivers a melancholic version. Faye Wong does a snappier, up-tempo tune.
``Thousands of miles apart, together we appreciate the beauty of the Moon.’’

Posted by: LittleWhiteCabbage | Sep 21 2021 18:26 utc | 176

Gordog @173--

I'd include all Russia's diesel boats as they're operating in essentially friendly waters; same with China's. Also, both Russia and China field a very robust ASW fleet, and those subs would also confront ASEAN navies who aren't going to lie down and watch their blooming commerce with China and its BRI be pirated. As I wrote, the game's over but there's still considerable work to accomplish. If as I think you're based within the Outlaw US Empire, then you're aware of the very precarious fiscal situation with the Rs refusing to up the debt ceiling and the Fed saying it's going to end the free money and raise rates. Biden's signature campaign promise of initiating his own MAGA is in deep peril of not being approved, while yesterday the nation's covid deaths surpassed those of the great 1917-1919 Flu Pandemic with many more to come. My wife's incensed that they--both parties--just won't quit and take care of the homeland, and I'll bet she has millions like her feeling the same way.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 21 2021 18:42 utc | 177

@175 Don't forget the Fosters mate. And a few shrimps for the barby.

Posted by: dh | Sep 21 2021 18:46 utc | 178

LittleWhiteCabbage @176--

It's good to read a comment by you again!! I agree with your POV as you'll note in my comment. IMO, it's in ASEAN's vital interest for it to join SCO as a bloc, which its bylaws allow it to do if there's consensus. That would put a big spanner in the Imperialist's plans. There's absolutely no way for them to win, so all they can hope to accomplish is to cause havoc, which actually goes against their own best interests. ASEAN's move would have a big effect on the Australian public who would then see the utter futility of joining the Outlaw Anglo Empire.

Again, it's great to see you again!

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 21 2021 18:51 utc | 179

dh @178--

All the Aussies I met at a pension near the Gallipoli battlefield denounced Fosters as pig swill and greatly preferred the local Efes pilsner brewed at Izmir. I didn't argue and drank Efes too!

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 21 2021 18:57 utc | 180

Far from feeling pitied by the bad luck of France, I think that everybody should join this BDS agsint France until the Carte Des Droits Des Citoyens has been restituted to the French citoyens...

It has no sens apllying BDS to Israel when it imposes an aprtheid over the Palestinians and then allow France going scot-free...

The same could be said of Italy, Canada, Australia, and the US.

I have seen Pres. Biden speech at UNGA, and it seemd to me a big exercise in demagoguery.
He has talked about bringing in "dignity" to every person in the world, but, since there is no questions time at the UNGA, nobody could ask him what of "dign" has that his administration obly every worker to "get the shot" while the lawmakers remain free of this mandate, inaugurating a new era of eslavery...
Then, with all his chutzpah, regreted the wars of Yemen, Ethiopia, and some others places causing mass famine and genocide, forgetting his country is an active part in all those wars...
Yes, definitely, he had not read the speech in advance, and, definitely, may be, yes, he is senile...


Posted by: Hannelore G. | Sep 21 2021 19:01 utc | 181

@180. I keep forgetting Oz is much more sophisticated these days. It has a more cosmopolitan population. Or maybe it's all those Monty Python jokes.

Posted by: dh | Sep 21 2021 19:04 utc | 182

@Posted by: Hannelore G. | Sep 21 2021 19:01 utc | 181

In fact, I am firmly decided to cancel any contract on energy services, or whatever trade relation for that matter, with any company which belongs to the stock markets of France, Italy, Australia, Canadá, and the US, until the full Chart of Human Rights for all citizens is restored in all those countries.

If they have deaf ears to the citizenry claims, let´s make the CAC40 and the like feel the pain, so that they go and presure the dictatorial governments they currently are accomplices with...

Posted by: Hannelore G. | Sep 21 2021 19:08 utc | 183

In the end, they will end enjoying all the same fate...One is lead to think what are the submarines for...allegedly to fight China...but...really...

This is the "state of affairs" in Melbourne, after the Gobernor of Victoria State decreed mandatory vaccination for all workers, including construction workers....

https://twitter.com/i/status/1440249005062066192

Macron, Dragui, should take note...one guesses....

Posted by: Hannelore G. | Sep 21 2021 19:20 utc | 184

@175 Don't forget the Fosters mate. And a few shrimps for the barby.
Posted by: dh | Sep 21 2021 18:46 utc | 178

I've never even heard of anyone putting shrimps on the bbq. Don't know anyone that drinks fosters for that matter either. I mustn't watch enough paul hogan crap.
I cooked yabbies on the coals a couple of times and drink XXXX. Its similar to the Asian beer that from what I remember has a green label on the bottle. That's not a bad brew specially with some of their chilli dishes that would make military grade pepper spray.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 19:21 utc | 185

@ LittleWhiteCabbage | Sep 21 2021 18:26 utc | 176 with the comment about China

It is good to read your comments again and I have a question for you. I studied planning methodologies in college and I am very interested in China's planning processes. How does one find out about the various planning process being used to govern the country?

Thanks

Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 21 2021 19:24 utc | 186

@Posted by: Hannelore G. | Sep 21 2021 19:20 utc | 184

One thing is to bully the health workers, always peaceful, quiet, kind people,always wishing doing good, and which swallow as no ther, and another thing is you messing with the lumpenproletariat...This is big talk...

Only, I wonder, as the provocations by governments grow exponentially, so that to test to what extent the citinzenry will swallow, or will go, could not be this, precisely, the outcome desired by the elites, to put an end, definitely, to the "rule of law"?

Posted by: Hannelore G. | Sep 21 2021 19:30 utc | 187

@185 I guess all that foreign travel has had an effect. I remember seeing yabbies as big as lobsters. What about roo meat or is that just for dogs?

Posted by: dh | Sep 21 2021 19:32 utc | 188

In Switzerland they are protesting in the Rothschild Castle, which has been surrounded by a high metallic fence, with the police applying water at high presure on the demonstrators portesting out the fence from inside the fence...

Rothschild´s police, for what it seems...

Posted by: Hannelore G. | Sep 21 2021 19:39 utc | 189

dh 188

Yes, just dog meat. Tough and no fat. Tried it a couple of times, though once when I was young I wrapped a leg in aluminium foil and baked it a fair while in the ashes. That wasn't too bad. The last years I have been thinking it would come up pretty good if slow cooked in a tandoori oven.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 19:44 utc | 190

@190 I learned how to cook roo when I was working cattle near Alice many years ago. Put it under the saddle for a few hours and it softens up.

Posted by: dh | Sep 21 2021 19:47 utc | 191

dh

I remember having roo tail soup a lot as a kid. A roo shooter would come around the farm every few weeks or so and as he was leaving he would drop off a couple of tails. I would have been pretty young then - I guess from the earliest I can remember till about eight or so.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 20:05 utc | 192

I went to Oz overland in the 60s. Had a lot of odd jobs there. Tales to tell my grand-children. Not sure if they believe me.

Posted by: dh | Sep 21 2021 20:29 utc | 193

dh
I left home in the southwest when I was 17 and traveled across the top end. Things were certainly a bit different and pretty rough. In the early 2000's I went over to the Kimberlies and put in a couple of years cleaning up feral cattle on two properties, one was aboriginal owned and the other an old bushy. He had some tales. He was the last to walk a mob of cattle across the Tanami to Alice, and he had know the bloke that did the oonadatta to birdsville mail run. He would have to roll fuel drums over the sand dunces, get the truck across then reload the drums. He would line them up beside the truck pull the bungs out so he could put his fingers in then get on the truck and lift them all up with his fingers in the bung. But that area in Kimberly's it was still a pretty rough place. Was called the underworld until the fifties or sixties when a beef road was first put in over the Leopold's.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 20:47 utc | 194

I think a few russian Poseydons will solve the problem.

Posted by: Rado | Sep 21 2021 20:57 utc | 195

@194 I remember one of the problems around Alice was feral camels overgrazing. I understand the culling and mustering is mostly done with helicopters nowadays.

Posted by: dh | Sep 21 2021 20:58 utc | 196

dh 196

I haven't been out in the camel country much, but yeah, culling and mustering from the air. Mostly helicopters especially through the territory, the odd ultralight there, where I spent most of my time in central west Queensland mostly ultralights. I put in 5000 hours in a gyrocopter before I got crook. Those musters in the Kimberly's I would get in a couple of helicopters once the yards were set up I would work one area as we were getting the cattle together then get back out of the for the helicopters to yard up.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 21:16 utc | 197

About diesel-electric subs.

Yes Russia has 23 such subs operational---14 of the Kilo class [877], and nine so far of the Improved Kilo [636.3]. These are also the most successful export subs by far with about 50 operated by a number of countries, including China, Iran and Vietnam [plus many more].

These are very good submarines, and very large for diesel boats. They are about half the displacement of the Los Angeles class nuclear attack subs, and about twice the displacement of the popular German type 209 class, which are also a very popular export sub, along with the newer Type 212 which is somewhat bigger.

These diesel boats are indeed an effective submarine for defending Russia's vast littoral waters. Much of the northern seas off Russia's Arctic coast are very shallow, due to the continental shelf, and are thus impractical for nuclear subs.

At the same time, these boats are also effective out to the Mediterranean Sea and even farther---they could easily sail to Cuba or Venezuela, for instance, where they would need to refuel, but this isn't really a practical mission.

As far as the attack role is concerned, these diesel subs do indeed play a significant role. For one thing, they are extremely quiet---so much so, that the US has nicknamed them the 'black hole.'

They also carry a very serious punch in terms of armament, unmatched by any other diesel boat. This includes the long-range Kalibr cruise missile, which has been launched several times from this class of boat in the Syria conflict. Since the Kalibr shares launch tube dimensions with the new hypersonic Zircon missile, it could at some point come to the Kilo class as well, although the main carrier of the Zircon will be the very impressive new class of Yasen, nuclear-powered cruise missile subs.

There is also a new class, the Lada, which is intended as an improvement on the Improved Kilo class. However, this boat has had some issues and was subsequently heavily redesigned. There is one currently completed and three more on order.

The bottom line is that these diesel boats are indeed very relevant to Russia's anti-sub defense, as well as an offensive capability that could easily hit targets anywhere in Europe. No other diesel cub can do that.

The US does not make diesel subs for the simple reason that their military is geared for offense, not defense. They simply do not expect that Russian subs will pop up in its coastal waters. That may be a serious miscalculation.

I will add a word here about air-independent propulsion, which seems to be a popular talking point, and which is featured on the newer German boats and some others. The Russians have decided not to implement this technology for now.

Every technical feature has tradeoffs. This is true in every kind of engineering. AIP requires carrying a lot of onboard oxygen in pressurized tanks, in order to run the various schemes that are used to produce electricity. This adds a lot of weight, and thereby takes away weapons payload.

The German boats for instance use hydrogen fuel cells, which also adds a hazard in terms of the explosiveness of compressed hydrogen gas. This is addressed by carrying the pressurized cylinders outside the pressure hull, in the space between the light, outside hull that is not pressurized, since it takes on the water ballast and thus equalizes pressure with the water at any depth.

Now the German Type 212 is said to be able to go up to three weeks without snorkeling, ie running on its fuel cell power alone. That sounds impressive...but that is going to be at a very slow speed of maybe three or four knots.

The 11 Siemens fuel cells onboard can produce a maximum of about 600 kilowatts. That is only a third of the max power of the electric propulsion motor, rated at 1,700 kW. And it is likely far less power output than that from the fuel cells, if that three week endurance is to be realized. It is probably on the order of a couple of hundred kW.

So it is ridiculous to think of AIP boats as some kind of 'everyman's' nuclear boat. There is no comparison. Incidentally, the Kilo class can cruise on battery power alone for about four days at that slow four knot speed.

It's difficult to imagine where this kind of long, submerged slow cruise would be important.

A submarine is a weapons platform, first and foremost. A Kilo can hit targets 2,000 km away, or even greater. It can hit ships with the antiship version of the Kalibr at several hundred km.

It's mission is to hunt down enemy subs in littoral waters, and it carries not only torpedoes, but long range antisub missiles, that are launched from a submerged position and breaking up through the surface, before flying up to 100 km and then sending a diving torpedo on the enemy boat.

The other mission is offensive, to fire its long-range cruise missiles and go home. The tradeoff does not make sense for this mission.

Posted by: Gordog | Sep 21 2021 21:17 utc | 198

Gordog 198

I was thinking before in some comments with smoothie that Taiwan is likely to be the trigger for whatever US is planning. If Taiwan declares independence it instantly becomes a US base which China will not allow.

"The tradeoff does not make sense for this mission." I was looking at the google satellite maps of the seas between Australia and China and most is continental shelf. I thought that area would be better for the smaller diesel subs?

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 21:34 utc | 199

Peter, China is too far for diesel subs. That graphic B posted a few days ago about range and time on station comparison between diesel and nuke is very helpful here.

Besides the shallow coastal waters there are very deep waters not far off.

Posted by: Gordog | Sep 21 2021 21:46 utc | 200

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