Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 20, 2021

The Fallout From The AUKUS Deal

The AUKUS deal allowed Australia to cancel an order for diesel driven submarines from France by taking up a U.S. and British offer to eventually acquire nuclear driven submarines.

It is not clear at all that Australia will find the money to actually pay for nuclear submarines. These are 50-100% more expensive that conventional ones. Australia also wants to make sure that at least 60% of the price flows back to Australian manufacturing. But there are no companies in Australia who have experience with work on nuclear technology. It is also unlikely that the U.S. or UK would let Australia gain such capacity.

There is also little chance that any of the envisioned new boats will be ready before 2040. By then Taiwan will likely be under Beijing's control and the naval primacy of China in the South China Sea will only have grown. The so far declared time frame and purpose of those boats is thereby questionable.

That may well be because the real plan is a different one:

The short-term leasing of nuclear-powered submarines from the UK or the US is being considered by the Morrison government but the Coalition insists nuclear weapons won’t be based in Australia.

The finance minister, Simon Birmingham, and the defence minister, Peter Dutton, confirmed in seperate interviews on Sunday that leasing submarines from the Aukus allies could be a stop-gap solution until Australia takes delivery of its own – potentially in the 2040s.

“The short answer is yes,” Dutton said when asked on Sky News about leasing vessels.

Birmingham said leasing arrangements would not necessarily “increase the number of submarines and the capability across all of the partner nations” but would help with training and information sharing.

“Doing so may provide opportunities for us to train our sailors, provide the skills and knowledge in terms of how we operate,” he told the ABC.

[It would help] provide the platforms for us to upgrade the infrastructure in Perth, that will be necessary for the operation of these submarines. I expect we will see … lease arrangements or greater joint operations between our navies in the future that sees our sailors working more closely and indeed, potentially on UK and US vessels to get that skills and training and knowledge.”

Perth will thereby be build up into a base that is compatible with the likely permanent stationing of U.S. nuclear submarines. These carry nuclear weapons.

The 'leased' boats, or at least their propulsion parts, would of course be still manned by U.S. or British sailors. The Australians already have problems retaining crews for their existing submarines. The few that will be available for the 'leased' boats will not be enough to run them. The Australians would pay largely for the privilege of being guests on board of doubtlessly U.S. commanded submarines.

The Australian government also plans to buy a number of expensive stand off missiles and long range weapons from the U.S. This will further integrate its forces into U.S. plans for war on China.

As I wrote in a previous piece:

This is a huge but short term win for the U.S. with an also-ran booby price for Britain and a strategic loss of sovereignty and budget control for Australia.

The loss of Australian sovereignty, as far as it existed, is obvious. Its new plans, like previous anti-China moves, will also have bad economic consequences. Talks about a free trade agreement with the EU will now be halted:

"One of our member states has been treated in a way that is not acceptable, so we want to know what happened and why," [European Commission President Ursula] von der Leyen said, adding that the situation must be clarified "before you keep on going with business as usual."
The European Union was Australia's third largest trading partner in 2020, according to the European Commission. Goods trade between the two amounted to €36 billion ($42 billion) that year while trade in services was worth €26 billion ($30 billion) in 2019.
The threat to an EU trade deal comes at a time when Australia is looking to develop new export markets after relations with China, its largest trading partner, soured recently.

Australian coal, wine, barley and beef have all already been affected by trade tensions with China, and experts say that AUKUS has antagonized Beijing even further.

China is still Australia's largest trading partner. The main Australian export product to China is iron ore. But that trade is now also in deep trouble:

The price of iron ore, Australia’s biggest export, has continued to plunge as top customer China steps up moves to cut its steel output and reduce carbon emissions for the third straight month.

After hitting a record-breaking $US230 a tonne in May, the key steel-making material has had its value slashed in half and is now trading below $US110 a tonne, hammering the share prices of the ASX-listed mining heavyweights BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue.

There are additional reasons why China's need for iron ore, and therefore its price, will go down. The near crash of China's cash strapped property group Evergrande will bring a pause to China's building boom. China is also recycling more and more steel from old infrastructure and thereby needs less raw iron ore input even while it continues to build new factories. The iron ore China still needs will soon come from Africa:

The top focus for China’s diversification push is Guinea. An impoverished but mineral rich country in West Africa. A 110 km range of hills called Simandou is said to hold the world’s largest reserve of untapped high-quality iron ore.
The project to develop Simandou has been split into four blocks. China holds either a direct or indirect stake in every one of them. The area holds an estimated 2.4 billion tons of ore graded at over 65.5%.

“Extraction of Simandou’s iron ore reserves would transform the global market and catapult Guinea into an iron ore export powerhouse alongside Australia and Brazil,” Lauren Johnston, a research associate at the SOAS China Institute of the University of London, told Nikkei.

If China unlocks Simandou’s reserves and drives a drop in international iron ore prices, “it could see selective commodity markets increasingly driven by intra-developing country dynamics,” Johnston said.

China would find such waters easier to navigate than having to do business with Quad member Australia.

(The recent coup in Guinea is unlikely not change these plans.)

Australia's extraction boom fueled by China's rise is coming to an end. The country will have to cut its budget and will need to seek a new economic model.

But why did I call this a "huge but short term win" for the U.S.?

It is a win in that the U.S. has gained a submarine base in Australia and will get paid for using it. This looks well if the intent is to wage a cold war on China. It is doubtful that this is a necessary strategy and it is equally doubtful that it can be successful. The weapons manufacturers will of course still love it.

But it is a only a short term win in the sense that the U.S. will lose many of its current and potential future partners over it. It has degraded its QUAD partner India and Japan to second tier status. It has increased suspicion in Indonesia, Malaysia and even Singapore of eventual nefarious plans against them:

In particular, Indonesia and Malaysia have come out strongly against Australia’s plan to acquire a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines with the help of the US and Britain. Even Singapore, Australia’s most reliable ally in the region, has expressed concern.
If anything, the Aukus move reinforced the widely held perception that Australia’s mantra of being “part of the region” is, in fact, “empty talk”. Australia has firmly signalled its intentions to put its Anglo allies in the US and Britain first.

A former British ambassador to France predicts trouble for NATO:

Peter Ricketts said Canberra's decision to abandon a contract with Paris for diesel-powered subs in favour of nuclear-powered ones from Washington drove a wedge between the allies and weakened the transatlantic alliance.

"I think this move certainly undermines French confidence in NATO and NATO allies, and therefore reinforces their feeling that they should be driving for European strategic autonomy," he told AFP.

"I think that can only be damaging to NATO, because NATO depends on trust. The repair work needs to begin urgently."

EU foreign ministers are due to discuss the new defence pact signed between the United States, Australia and Britain, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly Monday.
Ricketts, who was permanent representative to NATO in 2003-2006, said France would view the row as "a turning point" in relations with the United States and Britain.

"It's reinforced a feeling in Paris that I pick up that the Americans are increasingly turning their back on European security allies and focusing on their confrontation with China," he added.

France, Germany and other European countries want to be economic partners of China. They see the U.S. attempts to launch a new cold war as a completely unnecessary diversion from other problems. U.S. efforts to keep the Europeans 'in line' with its plans will become increasingly difficult.

Overall the U.S. has won a base and a small partner in its hopeless endeavor to subdue the four times larger China but has lost trust and support in huge parts of the rest of the world. It is a strategic error with long term consequences.


Posted by b on September 20, 2021 at 18:22 UTC | Permalink

next page »

Does Australia no longer hold elections?

If ScoMo is moving to a "leased" set of submarines operated by Americans paid by AU as opposed to a submarine owned and operated by Australians how will this be viewed by the electorate?

Give the growing negative response from AU trade partners and the severe decline in AU trade with China, it is likely there will be signiifcant domestic economic impact from this policy.

Will the electrate vote for a party and leader causing such a high degree of damage to the economic interests of the AU electorate?

Posted by: Sushi | Sep 20 2021 18:33 utc | 1

Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia and Eastasia.

Posted by: boriscleto | Sep 20 2021 18:36 utc | 2

“Extraction of Simandou’s iron ore reserves would transform the global market and catapult Guinea into an iron ore export powerhouse alongside Australia and Brazil,”

And so begins an endless queue of civil wars, 'color revolutions', presidential assassinations and "R2P" for that poor land and all who live in it. Stay posted for announcements from the local ISIS chapter ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Sep 20 2021 18:41 utc | 3

But,but.... this from b's link about Oz's "plans".

"Continuing collaboration with the United States to develop hypersonic missiles for our air capabilities".

Good luck with that.

....and it is not even the 1st of April !

Although the EU is playing togetherness chums with France, the recent ridiculous vote (non binding) massively against Russia, makes it less sure that they will actually DO anything to support France in reality.

Posted by: Stonebird | Sep 20 2021 18:48 utc | 4





Posted by: x2 | Sep 20 2021 18:58 utc | 5

worrying about the virus is for sissies and nancy boys. cuz if there's one thing we need national unity on, it is kicking china's ass!

what % of the US "economy" is these kinds of bullshit deals? rome was a parasite on its empire whereas the US is the tapeworm of the world.

Posted by: rjb1.5 | Sep 20 2021 19:01 utc | 6

Now pay attention to the quiet rise of Russia.

Posted by: Helen | Sep 20 2021 19:12 utc | 7

What was it that neocon Assistant Secretary of State Nuland said to US ambassador Pyatt in discussing their regime change coup in Ukraine? "and, you know, f*ck the EU".

Really have to wonder whether there was not a similar "and, you know, f*ck France" expressed during the course of the Blinken-Johnson-Morrison AUKUS discussions. Same attitude and hubris were no doubt present.

Posted by: Canadian Cents | Sep 20 2021 19:18 utc | 8

It has degraded its QUAD partner India and Japan to second tier status.

I don't see how India and Japan feel slighted by a strengthening of the anti-China strategy that they each fully support. If anything they are encouraged by that.

France, Germany and other European countries want to be economic partners of China.

Europe is already trapped by the fear-mongering about Russia.

As Russia, China, and Iran are increasingly viewed as ONE menace, Europe's ambivalence about joining in anti-China measures will diminish.

They [Europe] see the U.S. attempts to launch a new cold war as a completely unnecessary diversion from other problems.

"Attempts to launch?" The new Cold War is already here!

The Cold War with Russia and Iran is very clear (and Europe has joined in these Cold Wars). Any doubt about a Cold War with China was dispelled by the AUKUS announcement.

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I don't believe that AUKUS is a strategic error as much as the Cold War itself. Trillions will be wasted on this new Cold War over the coming decades. We should be spending that on economic competitiveness not weapons systems and standing armies.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2021 19:20 utc | 9

x2 @Sep20 18:58 #5

They HATEUS 'cause they AINTUS.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2021 19:23 utc | 10

I keep wondering what pidgin Chinese would sound like with those Aussie accents.

Posted by: par4 | Sep 20 2021 19:27 utc | 11

With or without either source of submarines, or leased subs, Australia is unable to defend itself. It needs the US to do that. It needs an alliance on which it can depend.

That was true before WW2, when they were nervous about relying on the British, and it is why the US carriers stepping up in the Battle of the Coral Sea was so important to Australia -- that was the naval defense from outside on which they had to rely.

The submarine deal, as a US sub base there, fits the long term strategy for Australia of getting the US there and keeping it there.

That is the only defense Australia can manage, if in fact they feel need for a real defense. That is however another question, since China is 5,000 miles away, on the other side of US defenses of Taiwan, the Philippines, Southeast Asia, and Indonesia.

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Sep 20 2021 19:34 utc | 12

"...Will the electorate vote for a party and leader causing such a high degree of damage to the economic interests of the AU electorate?"
Will it have any choice. In today's Canadian Federal election I had a choice between four candidates- each one promoting sinophobia, imperialism and full support of any crimes Zionism wishes to perpetrate.
My guess is that Australia is very similar and that the Opposition will subscribe, as it long has done, to any policies that Washington wants.

Posted by: bevin | Sep 20 2021 19:38 utc | 13

It makes no sense other than an Anglo coalition intent on manufacturing some sort of crisis through which the self-appointment of “leader of the free world” with unilateral decision making comes into play. Peter Lee has noted the positioning of US Coast Guard units in the Philippines ready to make trouble in SCS for Chinese fishing vessels (and PRC navy).

Posted by: jayc | Sep 20 2021 19:40 utc | 14

'unable to defend itself'

From what or who? Have you seen the knives most carry there? They can take care of themselves.

Thanks for the article and links. I agree a quick lease deal most likely....
I wonder if JB was in the loop? on this...

Posted by: freelove | Sep 20 2021 19:41 utc | 15

The AUSUK Axis is not about "defense" against China, or anyone else for that matter.

That is Orwellian Anglo NewSpeak.

America, the United Kingdom and Australia are all guilty of waging wars of aggression based on lies for the past generation such as the invasion of Iraq; the invasion and colonial occupation of Afghanistan; the proxy terror war against Syria; or the phony War on Terrorism in general--wars that have killed hundreds of thousands, if not over a million, people.

These criminal wars are not the behavior of peaceful nations who are concerned about national defense.

These criminal wars are the behavior of Anglo American Empires that fear that their domination of the world is slipping through their fingers.

Declining Anglo-Saxon Powers Intensify Alliance

Specifically regarding the pretext that America and its vassals/allies are merely interested in selflessly defending a "free and open" Indo-Pacific region, that is even more Orwellian horseshit, as a preponderance of the trade that passes through this region is destined for ... China. Cutting off these trade routes would be economic suicide for China.

That propaganda pretext makes no sense except for those who willingly chose to peddle this deception.

However, there is one country that would certainly benefit from cutting off these trade routes that its largest economic competitor is dependent on: the United States of America.

As Caitlin Johnstone and Ben Norton respectively write:

"The US and its allies are not surrounding China with an ever-increasing military arsenal to prevent them from cutting off trade routes, they're doing it so that they can cut off China when the time comes."

"CNN is the CIA Noise Network:

Warmongering host Jake Tapper invites on a US military officer to insist they must form the AUKUS imperialist alliance to wage war on China in order to "protect" trade routes that he admits Beijing is not actually threatening."

Posted by: ak74 | Sep 20 2021 20:05 utc | 16

Doing so may provide opportunities for us to train our sailors

Are there life boats to deploy when you're sent to Davy Jones' Locker while losing an engagement? Surrendering with grace doesn't seem to be a valued skill among the honkies that be.

Posted by: Pedro Jaime Farragut | Sep 20 2021 20:09 utc | 17

Great analysis b, you have covered the salient points.

The consequences to Australia from the loss of sovereignty was evident to Australian leaders way back in 1926 following the Imperial Conferences in London. Australian leaders demanded as a minimum, consultation in the formation of Imperial foreign policy.

Today the new Anglo/Zionist empire couldn't be bothered with consultation with its 'allies' let alone allowing its servile 'allies' any contribution to the formation of foreign policy.

Australia has gone backward.

Similarly military operations; Australia's disastrous loss of life in WW1, [61,000 dead First AIF] led to policy changes for the Second AIF. I was called 'The Charter for the AIF'.

The charter required the Second AIF fight under Australian command and reported to the Australian government. No part of the force would be detached to fight under foreign command.

This was thrown away post WW2. There is always a desire for foreign military to use 'colonials' piecemeal in their plans and follies.

Australia has regressed politically and militarily with this loss of sovereignty. Too many examples of the above come to mind.

New Zealand didn't learn the lesson of WW1 and suffered the consequences in WW2. Think about NZ army operations in WW2.

At least NZ did not join this crazy new top down Anglo/Zionist regressive and submissive 'alliance.'

I'll post again on minerals before i'm timed out.

Posted by: Paul | Sep 20 2021 20:10 utc | 18

Maybe they could get an Uber Sub for official 'engagements'?

Posted by: Jimmy Flies By | Sep 20 2021 20:10 utc | 19

The 'leased' boats, or at least their propulsion parts, would of course be still manned by U.S. or British sailors.

Sounds like "Black Lives Matter" under White supervision. We know that ploy me hearties!

Posted by: Rear Admiral Felcher | Sep 20 2021 20:13 utc | 20

bevin @13, agreed.

Australia was made to act against its own interests to pay the UKUSA protection racket, and clearly has no sovereignty. Much the same here in Canada where we're today voting in our federal election to determine whether we'll get a UKUSA governor from the Red corner or a UKUSA governor from Blue corner of this wrestling-entertainment-style show.

Zero mention of Canadian sovereignty was made by our political or media establishment during this election, and as you pointed out, all are on the very same establishment page when it comes to foreign policy.

Maybe they held off announcing Canada's participation in AUKUS until after our election. Whoever wins, we'll probably eventually learn that Canadian taxpayers have to shell out more billions like Australian taxpayers for UKUSA "protection" of some form or another. Billions for the war on Afghanistan, billions for the F-35, billions for NATO, billions for AUKUS, or who knows perhaps an Arctic CAUKUS, rinse and repeat, ...

Posted by: Canadian Cents | Sep 20 2021 20:13 utc | 21

Reading b’s update suddenly brought to mind an opinion piece published in the Toronto Star back in July. It’s about Canada’s attempt to purchase new fighter jets.

In it, the writer states, “we’re protected by American nuclear weapons” referring to the mutually assured destruction situation. He says, “This is why most of Canada’s fighters were in Western Europe during the Cold War, and why they were equipped with nuclear bombs rather than air-to-air missiles.” Now, given that our military has warned us about the threat of European invasion since the 80’s (that’s what I’m familiar with anyway), I thought that these statements might be a warning or threat to our European allies: yes, Canada is a non-nuclear power, but we have access to American nukes. So this is a territory protected by nuclear weapons. Nota bene.

Could Australia be doing something similar? But who wants to conquer Australia? I mean, probably lots of places could make use of Australia, but who would seriously attempt it?

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Sep 20 2021 20:14 utc | 22

In personal relationships, it seems inevitable that the cheaters end up being cheated on. OZ has struck a deal with the US that almost begs Australia to back out of someday. What are the odds that in 2040 there are Chinese subs berthed in Perth?

Posted by: Eric Blair | Sep 20 2021 20:17 utc | 23

While the MIC will take any war it can get, Bezos and WalMart cannot support a hot war against China. Neither can MAGA. Where would they get their ball caps and flags?

Posted by: Kristan hinton | Sep 20 2021 20:30 utc | 24

Alastair Crooke opines the sub deal is just one facet of a wholesale reset by the Outlaw US Empire. He opens:

"The shock of Afghanistan imploding – as if blown away in a puff of wind – plus the frantic U.S. scramble to get away, even as loyal local retainers, and billions of dollars’ worth of baggage were left abandoned on the tarmac, has triggered a political earthquake that is unfolding across Asia. The ‘ground zero’ (i.e. the U.S.) to a complex network structure has been pulled out on old and settled structures and relationships.

"In a very real sense, Washington was the hub: and states – particularly Gulf States defined themselves more in relation to the hub – than to each other. Now those relationships, and associated policies, many of which were geared to pleasing and being favoured by the hub, are up for radical review....

"Well, if there was doubt about where the U.S. ‘is’, consider this: The stunning betrayal of France by America over the eleventh hour surprise provision of nuclear submarine technology for Australia signals a huge geopolitical shift in U.S. strategy. In its growing confrontation with China, a ruthless Washington has demonstrated that what matters to it now is not Europe, but the Indo-Pacific region. This is where the new Cold War is to be fought."

But let's rethink this ongoing referral to "the new Cold War." It's "ruthless" treatment of non-Anglo NATO leaves the Outlaw US Empire with very little potential to contain now that it's completely lost Eurasia--I still dislike and distrust Modi, but he's not India, and IMO he's been read the Riot Act by Russia and observed the Empire's behavior. I was all prepared to read the denouncement of Russia's elections by the EU but silence is all I'm hearing. What do the little shit Baltics think about France being dissed on top of the Afghan and earlier Kurd betrayals? How well known before the Saudi, Qatar and Egyptian applications for SCO Dialog Membership were made public did insiders know of the biggest shift in Persian Gulf/Southwest Asian relations? Certainly prior to Crooke and his sources.

There's another loser in this reset--Occupied Palestine. With both generals Hyten and Milley against war with China and Russia, they both must be against war with Iran since its protected by its partners. AND, although few are willing to admit the obvious, Occupied Palestine has lost its strategic position with the Empire's abandonment of Eurasia. With hydrocarbons waning in geopolitical importance, the Anglos have nothing to gain and much to lose by continuing to support an immoral human rights destroyer that's an Anglo artificial creation. As with the Kurds, bye bye Zionists. What about UAE?

Crooke cites this David Hearst article, "MBZ is performing a U-turn that could reshape the Middle East," these segments being key:

"UAE officials claim to be conducting a 'strategic reassessment' of foreign policy. It starts with Biden. The UAE noted two features of its changed relationship with Washington … The first was a consistent message from the new U.S. administration to ‘de-escalate’ tensions in the Middle East. The second was the sheer unpredictability inherent to U.S. policy....

"Coupled with this, [sources] claim, is a hard-headed assessment of what the UAE has actually achieved. Its interventions have indeed beaten the Muslim Brotherhood back as a political force in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Syria, and partly in Libya. But the cost of the UAE’s secular jihad is enormous.

“Three of these countries are in smoking ruins, and the other two, Egypt and Tunisia, are nearly bankrupt. What has MBZ gained for the billions of dollars he has invested in Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi?

The new policy, then, is apparently to spread influence through economic cooperation, rather than military intervention and political competition”. [My Emphasis]

And that last has SCO membership stamped onto it. Perhaps Rouhani's vision of Collective Gulf Security will become reality while Raisi's President. With the Outlaw US Empire's abandonment of Afghanistan and announced departure from Iraq which will have to include Syria, there's global momentum building for a serious and long-lasting period of peace so the undeveloped can gain a modicum of developed status--the world wants China and friends to be given the opportunity to build the BRI, and they want the Rule of Law that stems from the UN Charter. A new Big Club is being built, and its founding members want everyone to become a member, unlike the Old Club that's folding under the weight of its own immorality and corruption.

Posted by: karlof1 | Sep 20 2021 20:42 utc | 25

Paul @ 17, I don't know how it is with Apple, but if I get timed out during a post, I first save what I've written by highlighting it and copying it, then upper right quadrant of screen with cursor double tap the pad, so that a small box with 'reload' comes up, which will bring you back to a blank posting area, then use my 'paste' function, after bringing cursor into play.

(I think you had asked on a previous thread.)

Posted by: juliania | Sep 20 2021 20:45 utc | 26

Economic analysis of what the world will look like by the time the subs are launched by PwC.

Posted by: Paul | Sep 20 2021 20:49 utc | 27

If ScoMo is moving to a "leased" set of submarines operated by Americans paid by AU as opposed to a submarine owned and operated by Australians how will this be viewed by the electorate?

Those congenital criminals from the other Brutanian penal colony, the U$, when they get another wild hair up their ass could just take over Australia. Why wouldn't they? They love criminal enterprise, incest, and there are indigenous peoples to kill. A win win for all.

Posted by: Klaus Barbie-Nken | Sep 20 2021 20:52 utc | 28

Australia has lost its sanity and sovereignty.

Australia has been a suzerainty of the British Empire. Was it ever sovereign, just look at its oath of allegiance? Australia has a private monetary system. Who controls its money supply? Australia, a private plantation – VASSAL, follows the orders.

When the pie starts shrinking, the factions/blocs start fighting.
The Crown/Core (Five Eyes) Bloc of the Financial Empire wants to base its nuclear capability in Australia. It doesn’t care about Australia or its other vassals. The 💲Bloc’s $ demand is declining. The EU requires all its energy contracts be in Euros! The dominant reserve currency faction doesn’t like competition from other currencies, such as the € Bloc. The EU wants to be a vital polar of the multipolar world!

Economic & Diplomatic Fallout
There is no way for China to develop economic ties with a country that treats it as an enemy. It is working on preparing a good response. Chinese will go for French, Croatian, ... wines. California wine is better than Australian. Nations in Asia, EU, ME, Africa, LATAM will question Australia’s independence and do better by engaging with Australia’s OWNERS.

“There’s a trust deficit with America which is growing by the day,... The trend is more of China, less of America on all fronts, not just economically but politically, militarily and strategically in the years to come. There’s nothing America can do about it.”

‘More of China, less of America’: how superpower fight is squeezing the Gulf

Posted by: Max | Sep 20 2021 21:01 utc | 29

Bruised Northerner

This is very much about us attacking them because their economy is getting too big. Read through history and all too often stupidity like this leads to the country's own destruction. Most things here is booming at the moment but most export markets are now finished for us, China is crashing the speculation bubble that is likely to follow through to here and western economies in general and our Ukrainian government here are putting more money than we've got into self made war of choice we cannot win... This all began quite a while back with PM Abbott declaring we are part of the anglospohere rather than part of the Asia pacific.
What I feared most back then has now occurred.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 20 2021 21:04 utc | 30

India and Japan feel slighted by a strengthening of the anti-China strategy that they each fully support.

I guess that's why a Japanese prime minister quit.

I remember when Japan would never be allowed, or allow itself, to become militarized ever again. Now that the culturally superior inbred whites with their bad teeth have let that djinn out of the bottle I hope I live long enough to see the Rape of Nanking on the U$ continent as they gang rape our president on the Senate floor to the cheers of American lobbyist.

As for India, I'm sure incense sales will explode in Uncle Fauci's death camps. Have a nice day.

Posted by: Tony Fauci Mengele | Sep 20 2021 21:08 utc | 31

Posted by: juliania | Sep 20 2021 20:45 utc | 25

Thanks for attempting to help. I admit I am very limited in all my digital skills and I am happy to keep it that way, less frustration.

Digital is a frustration for me and I am not going back to school, I have trouble with the TV remote, I am currently locked out of my [digital] bank account, I have disconnected the digital landline phone from the wall, I only use my cell phone for making and taking calls, I never text, I would like to delete text and voicemail. I have purchased a vintage dial phone, I hate pressing buttons for options I don't want.

I hate governments pushing me to go online. They throw computer jargon at me and presumptuously expect; not only do I know what they are talking about but I have all the equipment and know how to use it.

When I get timed out a popup box prevents me even hand writing my comment.

Sooner or later I'll completely de-digitalise and grow fruit & vegetables for myself.

Posted by: Paul | Sep 20 2021 21:09 utc | 32

I was talking to my son earlier and he's not that impressed by Australia's ability to build anything let alone the infrastructure the US wants. He thought we would have to get China in to build it for us.... that's pretty much where Australia is at.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 20 2021 21:22 utc | 33

As an Australian academic with friends in the senior public service and ex-military I can say without reservation that we are all utterly mystified by this whole move. We all more or less agree with b's analysis——we have become the new Saudi Arabia: a resource rich client state conveniently located as a large land mass from which to base US military assets. We will also pay for the privilege.

We could have been the Scandinavia of the Asia-Pacific, a manufacturing centre, R&D intensive, aggressively asserting our sovereignty. But you have to understand Australia has no culture and no history: unlike even the USA we never had an ancien regime to overthrow, no pre-existing cultural institutions. In fact, we had the opposite: we were colonised by criminals and peasants who brought with them nothing but carpet-bagging, brutal colonialism, and a lingering sense of their exclusion from European centres of intellectual and cultural life. The University of Sydney (where I teach), founded in the 1840s was an attempt to plant an intellectual tradition, but could do no more and no less than slavishly imitate Oxbridge to return to which its occupants constantly yearned. Consider the old embarrassing motto of the place: sidere mens eadem mutato. A more cringeworthy statement of self-loathing I cannot conjure ("Though the stars have changed the mind remains the same"––English unto death...). Ever since our immigrants have been the compradors, the riff-raff, the schemers and the carpet-baggers. A nation of hot air figurally and literally.

As such we will absolutely follow UKUS to hell, so abjectly are we defined as a culture by its lack, by the absence of art, science, thought, philosophy, classical tradition. Even the region, in which ancient cultures could supply us with a pluralist hybrid set of identities, is regarded with atavistic terror. When Paul Keating once said that Australia needs to start considering itself 'part of Asia' he suffered catastrophic electoral damage, with talk-back radio callers crying 'nooooo!' A racist, petty-minded, parochial settler oligarchy clinging fearfully to the eastern littoral like outposts on the edge of darkness, periodically raiding the interior for iron, gold and other riches, still to this day deracinating and exterminating the tragic first people. My heart breaks when I think of what we've done to them.

In short, I'm sad to say, that I am ashamed, though I am 6 generations Australian descended from Scots economic refugees in the 1850s (victims of yet another crime: enclosure), to be Australian. We have failed our promise, failed as a nation, fallen very short of all the luck we were handed. Holes in the ground, totally unaffordable housing, hugely undeserved sense of privilege and entitlement, criminal carpet-bagger politicians and animated by racism, misogyny and greed. This move is both completely predictable and yet so disappointing to those of us who cry out for leadership here.

I hope China puts us in our place——and soon.

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 20 2021 21:33 utc | 34

I have only had the pleasure to visit Australia once. Australia has great surf. A hero of mine is the awesome Chenye Horan. Also the mighty Wayne Lynch, Nat Young. They have AC / DC. RIP Bon Scott. And the Laughing Clowns. As well asl the Birthday Party. ( Not a huge fan. I am a child of the 80s). It saddens me that the youth are so compliant. I am old with mortgages responsibilities and all that stuff, so I can't tell the man to shove it. Thank Satan for MoA!!

Here is a shout out to James - Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheep - AC/DC

Thank you B. The check was late, but hopefully it made it!

Posted by: lex talionis | Sep 20 2021 21:40 utc | 35

@Posted by: Canadian Cents | Sep 20 2021 20:13 utc | 20

CAUKUS becomes USUCKA, sounds right for our lovely Canadian comprador elites and quisling leaders. If we are really lucky we will bet rid of the Green Party Zionist Imperial lover and NGO industrial complex product (Annamie Paul) and get to have the socialist green (Dmitri Lascaris) who was cheated out of the leadership. I am hoping for the Queen of the Greens (Elizabeth May) to keep her thieving hands away from the electoral process.

Voted for the lesser evil of Trudeau, which is not saying much (OToole make Eugene McCarthy look a bit soft, Jagmeet Singh is too busy making TikTok videos and festering his personal hatred of Trudeau, and then of course there is the lunatic right "Peoples Party" which sounds very national socialist)

Apologies to non-Canadians for such trivia from our unimportant lapdog poodle of a country.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 20 2021 21:42 utc | 36

Patroklos "Australian descended from Scots economic refugees in the 1850s"

So you are one of those people you so much despise. Australia did actually have a culture before it was Americanized in the eighties. Perhaps you would have preferred that culture to sip more latte's.

As with any people, information is key. Whoever controls the media controls the people. The five-eyes intel deep state control the media.

Read this and attempt to understand it while you are sipping your latte and looking down on the peasants.

"Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, IT IS THE LEADERS of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It is the same in any country."

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 20 2021 21:48 utc | 37

Posted by: lex talionis | Sep 20 2021 21:40 utc | 34

ha! yes, Bon Scott, a great Australian. In Central railway station in Sydney there used to be some graffiti: "Sir Bon Lives On". He does. We could have been a great nation...

Let there be Rock.

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 20 2021 21:49 utc | 38

So cool! I never knew that. I saw AC/DC on the Highway to Hell tour 1979 Oakland California. ROCK AND ROLL.
A few years later, I learned about Nugan Hand via Mae Brussel on World Watchers Intenational on KFJC 89.7 fm.
Much love to the MoA community!!

Posted by: lex talionis | Sep 20 2021 21:54 utc | 39

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 20 2021 21:48 utc | 36

Not quite sure what you are insinuating (I hate milk in coffee), but it's coming off as a little aggressive. I'm not denying that I am part of a country whose actions I despise. But don't kid yourself: we had no culture before the 80s, just a wowserised version of Anglo-Irish parochialism.

That said, I've never had anything but respect for your posts so I'm not sure why you think you can assume you know me and can pass judgment. First in family to go to university, so not a latte-sipper, but peasant white trash as far back it can go.

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 20 2021 21:55 utc | 40

Everyone's still focused on the subs. I think they're meaningless distractions.

The missile basing is what is really important.

And that makes Australia a target for Chinese missiles (and in some cases, Russian ones). But Australians won't protest over that because media only talk about the subs - and the tiff with France.

You can bet that when China cuts back on trade with Australia over AUKUS, Australia media will ramp up the anti-China propaganda: HOW DARE THEY consider Australia a threat and look after their own interests!! LOL.

<> <> <> <> <>

The Empire managers have a freehand to do as they please because the people fall for the propaganda and misdirection EVERY TIME.

Hey, look a french-speaking squirrel! LOL.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2021 21:59 utc | 41

Posted by: Bruised Northerner | Sep 20 2021 20:14 utc | 21

Who concluded:

"But who wants to conquer Australia? I mean, probably lots of places could make use of Australia, but who would seriously attempt it?"

Good point BN,

It reminds me of the Progressive Except for Palestine [PEP] crowd, in denial about the Iraq War, shouting, 'no war for oil', when it would have been more cost effective to just buy the oil as everyone found out.

It would be more cost effective to buy Australia's resources than invade Australia.

Japan concluded after 1941 it would take 6 to 10 divisions to conquer Australia and a naval force they did not have. Japan turned East and attacked the British fleet in Ceylon and the Indian Ocean instead, spectacularly.

Australia is already the OECD's biggest foreign owned country. No need to invade.

Posted by: Paul | Sep 20 2021 22:01 utc | 42

Further to my comment @ 41' I should have said 'Japan turned West.'

Posted by: Paul | Sep 20 2021 22:05 utc | 43


Some of that post wound me up a bit. The majority of Australians originated from The british emigration for the the poor schemes. Economic migrants as you call them.
I get angry at times that so many here are blissfully unaware of what is happening, but it always comes back to that Goering quote. US covert ops/pysops is very much aware of that aspect of human nature and use it to its fullest. My hatred is for those in that intel deep state playing great power games.
Australia Canada and NZ people have no chance of breaking out of this on their own. If it is going to be the people rather than outside powers, then it must begin in the US as that is where the seat of power is in the anglosphere.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 20 2021 22:07 utc | 44

Canada has experience at buying used subs from the UK and the experience was horrible. We ended up spending more to make them sea worthy than we paid for them to begin with. They spent over a decade in the dry dock. They have been banned from diving to the depths the Brits claimed they were certified for.

After that you then get to start training your crews which takes even more time. Of course if no Australians are allowed to ever set foot on their boats then that reduces the training time considerably.

Posted by: BraveNewWorld | Sep 20 2021 22:17 utc | 45

Prior to the 1970s Oz manufactured everything it needed from clothing and footwear to motorcars, trucks, excavators, cranes, TVs, radios, heavy machinery, aircraft and ships and everybody was getting cleverer, busier and happier. Then the Liberals decided to turn Oz into a Nation of Shopkeepers by adopting NeoLiberalism and thereby encouraged the export of skilled and semi-skilled Oz jobs to countries with cheaper labour.

NeoLiberalism in the not very Christian West eventually made China Great (again) and now the West's myopic wankers are bitching because their selfish, pompous and unbridled Mr 10% Greed was directly responsible for China being 3 inches away from becoming the most prosperous and powerful nation on Earth.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Sep 20 2021 22:20 utc | 46

@Posted by: Sushi | Sep 20 2021 18:33 utc |
The short answer is yes, Australia does have elections. The better answer is that they just don't matter, at least not in the foreign policy realm.
Gough Whitlam tried to get Australia to run an independent foreign policy fifty years ago. He was ousted, and no one in Canberra has had the courage to stand up to the U.S. since.
Australia, my country: What a muppet you are.

Posted by: Hal Duell | Sep 20 2021 22:29 utc | 47


I guess there is a couple of different ways culture can be looked. For you it is fine arts and places of learning.
For me it is the sum total of a nations history, both the good and the bad - the bad must be remembered so the future can be made better. Up until about the sixties I guess, Australia was very much a rural culture and quite different from that of Britain.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 20 2021 22:31 utc | 48

@Roger35 . Yagmeet doesn't hate JT he idolizes him. IMO

Canadian Cents@ 20. We have a winner. Thanks for articulating the thoughts I have been having for many moons now.

Peace all

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Sep 20 2021 22:49 utc | 49

As I mentioned previously, those Nuclear-powered Barracuda SSNs costs roughly 1.2 - 1.5 Billion Per Sub IIRC. AUS Ordering those would have made those SSNs cheaper on an Unit Cost Basis.

Still, Engineering large enough AIP Units to power the ShortFin_Barracudas should be cheaper than a Water-Cooled Fission Reactor.

The Cost Bloat Factors should be explained better.

The FRA were backstabbed, the Raucous CAUKUS are desperate to face off CHN Carrier/Amphibious Strike Groups(CSGs/ASGs) with their own; and need all the SSNs they could muster to Escort the CAUKUS_CSGs covering the Okinawa_JPN-AUS-SGP Triangle in the South_Pacific/Oceania_Seas.

AUS were targeted by CHN_Expansionists since the 1970s. Since there are much unfinished business since the Opium Wars and Occupations of the Anglo Persuasion in the Region, an Invasion of TWN just might be part of a Grander Scheme to rid the SouthPacific/Oceania of the Anglo-American-ZioMasons and their Vassal Oligarchies.

NZL will be included as will PHL - which are a Masonic Oligarchy.

The CHN now have that Blue Water Navy; and GBR+Commonwealth are on Borrowed Time...

Posted by: IronForge | Sep 20 2021 22:53 utc | 50

Posted by: Patroklos

That is heart rending stuff Patroklos. And mind warping to get one's head around. All I can say is solidarity my friend.

Posted by: FiveGunsWest | Sep 20 2021 23:18 utc | 51

The missile basing is what is really important.

It's the -ucking Cuban Missile Crisis in reverse. The three stooges, Austin, Blinken and Biden are frigging reprehensible turds who will go down in infamy. They must have threatened to nuke Oz to get this reach around from them.

Posted by: Sgt. Hartman | Sep 20 2021 23:25 utc | 52

@Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 20 2021 21:48 utc | 36

Quoting Mr. Goering, you read history while sipping your latte's? Or should I say, kaffee?

In his letter to Churchill days before his death "I regret that our means did not suffice to convince you at the last moment that the liquidation of Germany would also be the beginning of the liquidation of Britain's world power" - prescient. Seemed that Churchill viewed Goering as a real gentleman (as well of course, greatly admiring Mussolini and Fascism in general, and being against democracy).

So now our Anglo leaders in the US, UK, Canada, and Australia will attempt to drag our sorry asses into another war against the Other, greatly aided by the numerous Winston Smith's rewriting history and creating menacing shadows from those that could be our friends if only we got rid of those leaders.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 20 2021 23:30 utc | 53

@Posted by: Tannenhouser | Sep 20 2021 22:49 utc | 48

Ah, I may have mistaken a look of unrequited love for that of hatred, but then one can turn into the other.

Posted by: Roger | Sep 20 2021 23:33 utc | 54

Posted by: Paul | Sep 20 2021 20:49 utc | 26

Good article, thanks.


Posted by: TEP | Sep 21 2021 0:11 utc | 55

Paul @ 41:

Japan actually did pretty well in bombing Darwin in 1942 and sending submarines to attack Newcastle and Sydney the same year. (For MoA barflies not familiar with Newcastle, Newcastle is a city 160 km / 100 miles north of Sydney that was once famous for its iron and steel industry before that, like all other manufacturing in Australia, went the way of the diprotodon.)

Townsville in Queensland and Broome in northern Western Australia were also subjected to Japanese air attacks.

What Japan had to figure out was to how to throttle Australian trade with the rest of the British Empire. Tokyo could have tried to cut Australian trade with India for example.

Unfortunately wherever Japanese troops went in Southeast Asia, they antagonised local people by throwing their weight around in the same way the British, the French and the Dutch through their weight around, by assuming themselves to be racially superior to the people they wanted to dominate. If instead the Japanese had tried to work with the peoples they conquered, they would not only have gained their cooperation (against both the British and the Americans) but enough local knowledge to know how to deploy Imperial Japanese naval ships in the western Pacific / eastern Indian Ocean areas efficiently enough, going with prevailing wind and ocean currents during monsoon seasons, to wreck Australian trade and supply routes and isolate Australia enough from the British and Americans to bring the continent to its knees.

Ultimately though supply lines from Tokyo to Australia for Japanese attack forces were just too long. What Japan needed to do was establish secondary forward bases in Jakarta and Singapore, or maybe even Port Moresby, to launch more substantial and sustained attacks on Australia. That would have perhaps meant bringing local people in those areas into the Japanese imperial forces as equals.

Posted by: Jen | Sep 21 2021 0:15 utc | 56

My comment @ 55:

"... in the same way the British, the French and the Dutch through their weight around ..." should have been "... in the same way the British, the French and the Dutch threw their weight around ...".

Pls excuse me while I go knock some brain cells loose - the nearest wall should do it.

Posted by: Jen | Sep 21 2021 0:20 utc | 57

Jen 55

I think much of the war in the pacific hinged on pure chance at the battle of Midway. Whichever side managed to find the opposing carrier fleet was the winner. The Americans were lucky and Japan lost its carriers. For Japanese plans, controlling the seas from Australia back to Japan was critical.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 0:26 utc | 58

Roger 52

The massacres by white station owners and workers, the native troopers in Queensland and their punitive expeditions, the racism I saw in the Kimberly's, the aboriginal officials in charge of distributing money to communities, those officials all owning many rental properties in derby and the communities getting screwed out of their money, the aboriginal cop abusing me for stopping to pick up an old drunk blackfella when we were heading back out to work, those young people totally fucked over, wanting to learn trades get jobs had to travel a long way from their country to get away from racism, the judge constantly releasing any aboriginal because she thought jailing them was wrong, the bad bastard that knocked my 86 year old father down and stomped on his head two hours after being released on bail from busting a sixty year old woman cheekbone his initial assault a machete attack on another aboriginal, the kids in the territory getting jailed for crimes against bureaucracy... I think booze and plenty of it is good enough for me to sip on.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 0:45 utc | 59

Where are you going with your discussions?

Learning new insights is good. On deep engagement with commenters here on the root causes of humanity’s and nations’ challenges, mostly all converge on the Global Ruling “Families” or CLANS. Here is from today’s engagement with Stonebird:

“If you take the "who" in a limited sense then there is no doubt that the "families", including Rothschilds, own about half of ALL the assets in the world (and by extension most of the politicians and people of "high visual impact). Multiple trillions of assets obviously count in a materialistic world.

No financial-independent sovereignty can compare to them. A religious one might, as the terrain on which ideas are fought over, moves into the intangible. Less calculable, but unfortunately still subject to human foibles, as greed is one of the major human vices.

Posted by: Stonebird | Sep 20 2021 20:31 utc | 192”

If this is reality then DEMAND these families to end our abuse, enslavement and destroying our nations & planet in their lust for power. They control your administrative apparatus and their is no democracy, sovereignty, global community... We weren’t born to be enslaved &/or abused. If we speak with one voice they will have to listen. Without this they will define the destiny of the people.

There are no leaders. You have to be a leader. Do times define leaders or leadership defines its times?

If you really want to do something, you'll find a way. If you don't, you' ll find an excuse.

“When a man's willing and eager the god's join in.”
– Aeschylus

What are your choices?

Posted by: Max | Sep 21 2021 0:52 utc | 60

Max @Sep21 0:52 #59: What are your choices?

Let's talk about YOUR choices.

You lied and made a 'choice' to flip-off moa.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Sep 21 2021 0:56 utc | 61

@ Jackrabbit (# 60), no digression or distraction. God is watching US! “In God We Trust.”

Posted by: Max | Sep 21 2021 1:00 utc | 62

Some explanation on Australia's domestic politics that might cast extra light on recent events. The Prime Minister, Scott Morrison is essentially a short-term, tribal player. He is strongly connected to prosperity gospel and Pentecostal congregations which form part of his support base, and he goes out of his way not to antagonise right-wing populism. Like the Old Testament stories, he rewards his friends and donors (often illegally) and smites his enemies at every opportunity.

He relies on his media management to stay in front. His media presence is pro-active, closely planned, and designed to keep him front and center and deny his opponents oxygen. In this he has the close cooperation of the three dominant media companies- Murdoch/Sky, Stokes and Fairfax.
After several very visible failures of national leadership (bushfires, vaccine rollout etc) he is watching the polling turn against him ahead of the next election, due by mid 2022. He is thus looking for short-term media-friendly announcements to lift his electoral prospects.

The submarine announcement should be seen primarily in this context- a rabbit pulled from a hat that will reinforce his standing among conservatives and disinterested but US-sympathetic voters, and split the Opposition. It only has to work for six months or so before the elections, as long as he can avoid details and specifics. All the complicated long term stuff like major international strategic shifts can be sorted out later. Too bad if it can't.

There's another good article by respected journalist Brian Toohey today at Pearls & Irritations that addresses the short vs long term considerations of the ongoing clusterf*ck that is Australia's Morrison government.

Posted by: Extra | Sep 21 2021 1:18 utc | 63

@1 Sushi: "Does Australia no longer hold elections?"

The next election can be held no later than mid-2022.

Note that the only thing that Scott Morrison has committed himself to is an "18 month consultation process" with the USA and the UK. Annnnnnnnnnnd, 18 months takes him at least six months past the next election.

Get it?

Morrison can run all the way to the next election and swear on a stack of his collection of Bibles that, yes, he *is* going to build nuclear submarines and, yes, those nuclear subs *are* going to be built in Adelaide, so everyone in South Australia should be grateful to him and vote for his party.

He can - and he will - swear to that and beat the war drums as hard as he possibly can, regardless of the damage that this does to Australia/China relations and the damage that this causes to Australian trade. Who cares, when there is an election to win?

And once that election is over he can go very, very quite on all that hullaballoo and wait it out until the 18 months are done and the report is released.

That report will say: Adelaide? Nah, not possible. Nuclear subs? Hahahah! We can't afford those.

Scottie will bow his head, shed a few crocodile tears, and then announce his Plan B: lease the Fremantle Sub base to the US Navy.

He will swear on a stack of his bibles that he has no other choice, regrettable as that is.

But it will be the plan that he always intended to implement, but as the old saying goes: softly, softly, catchie monkey.

I mean, honestly, this is not rocket science: Morrison *could* spend $90billion to build nuclear subs that will go where the US Navy order them to go, and do what the US Navy orders them to do.

Or he can save all those billions by cutting out the middleman: just lease Fremantle to the US Navy and allow them to use *their* *own* nuclear attack subs to do the same job.

Why on Earth would he do the former, when he could choose the latter?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Sep 21 2021 1:18 utc | 64

Posted by: Jen | Sep 21 2021 0:15 utc | 55

My late father was in Darwin shooting back at the time. The attacking force was larger than the force that attacked Pearl Harbour, it included Japanese bombers based in Indonesia. My father was a first class shot, not a crack shot, as he liked to tell me.

I know about the attack on Sydney. The 'I Class' submarine attempted to shell the Rose Bay Flying Boat Base from the ocean side, but only succeeded in making a deep hole in the harbour floor nearby.

One of the midgets sank a ferry used as sleeping quarters at Garden Island and was depth charged. It was on display at the AWM, Canberra.

There was a secondary Japanese submarine attack on Madagascar at the same time.

I have spoken to the famous diver who discovered the long missing Japanese midget sub at Long Reef. For more on the missing midget search the net, I think there is a documentary on it.

The famous diver possibly knows the location of the long missing Lady Southern Cross and Sir Charles Kingsford-Smith in SE Asia. Shhh.

Posted by: Paul | Sep 21 2021 1:23 utc | 65

Two thoughts:

I wonder how Russia is interpreting the AUKUS move? Will the US attempt rapprochement with Russia in order to break the budding China/Russia alliance?

Posted by: Antibody | Sep 21 2021 1:26 utc | 66

To Patroklos, all I can say is that I hope that we are successfully invaded by President Xi and soon. Then he can liquidate the bourgeois leftist academic class as quickly as possible. After all the Chinese don't want to be infested with their toxic crap and hybrid identities either.

Posted by: rambling idiot | Sep 21 2021 1:28 utc | 67

@19 "The 'leased' boats, or at least their propulsion parts, would of course be still manned by U.S. or British sailors."

No, the "leased boats" are the excuse. The smokescreen. The real plan is for "US boats" to operate from leased bases.

But Scott Morrison can't come out an say that. Not yet. He'd be crucified at next year's election.

He has to salami-cut his way to this over a much longer period. Like, oh, just a guess: 18 months.

So the first slice is: I'm cancelling the French contract, but don't worry, I'm building nuclear subs instead
The next slice is: Of course they will be built in Adelaide! I'm a politician, would I lie to you?
Then the slice after: Err, OK, OK, maybe that'll take longer than I'd like. Let's lease some in the meantime!
After which he'll slice it: Hmmm, this leasing arrangement is tougher than I thought. Let's scrap that.
The final slice will be: S**t. No time left now! I'm just gonna get the US Navy to run their subs out of Fremantle.

One slice at a time. Each one not enough to cut his own wrists, but slowly, slowly each cut gets him closer to where he intends to be: the US Navy operating nuclear attack subs out of Fremantle base.

I mean, honestly, why would he pay $90billion to do something when he can just ask the US Navy to do it themselves?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Sep 21 2021 1:33 utc | 68

@62 Extra Exactly right. Everything has to do with Morrison wriggling out of that French contract because it is bleeding him white. But he can't just come out and scrap "submarine building", because then the Adelaide shipyard becomes non-viable and he will lose seats in South Australia. Seats that he can not afford to lose at the next election.

EVERYTHING ELSE is simply smoke and mirrors so that Morrison can insist that the Adelaide shipyard is not in danger.
He has to keep up that pretense until the next election (mid-2022).

Once that is over and done with then the veil can fall and he can reveal that Australia isn't getting any submarines at all - nuclear or diesel powered - because he simply doesn't have $90billion to splash around on such toys. Not with the cost of the pandemic and the (self-inflicted) cratering of trade relations with China.

EVERYTHING in this sorry tale is about manipulating the news-cycle so that he can pretend that this isn't true when he knows it to be true. He has arranged all his ducks in a row so that *prior* to those elections he can deflect any questions by saying they are being worked out in that "consultation process", and then *after* the elections he can hide behind that same process when he cans everything.

Honest, I meant it at the time, but this report has revealed unexpected problems. Sorry, Adelaide. Sorry, Royal Australian Navy. No subs for either of you. But, heh, look on the bright side! Fremantle will be kept busy dotting on all those US submariners!

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Sep 21 2021 1:46 utc | 69

@65 "I wonder how Russia is interpreting the AUKUS move?"

Well, I'm pretty sure that Russian intelligence is better than French intelligence, so they will have a better understanding of what is going down with this pantomime scheme. I doubt that the Russians are doing anything other than breaking out the popcorn.

"Will the US attempt rapprochement with Russia in order to break the budding China/Russia alliance?"

If they did then the USA would be a day late and a dollar short.

The Russians already know that the USA is "non-agreement capable". They would have no interest in entertaining Washington too-clever-by-half scheming.

After all, what can Washington offer Moscow that can't then be pulled away like Charlie Brown's football?

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Sep 21 2021 1:51 utc | 70

b.. thanks for these overviews.. i find it fascinating! i agree with your conclusion at the bottom here too.. while it looks like a short term win for the usa, it looks much more like a long term loss to me... i am surprised at how nuts the foreign policy hawks are allowed to do stupid shit like this, all for maintaining neo-con central ideology..

Posted by: james | Sep 21 2021 1:59 utc | 71

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 0:26 utc | 57

I agree luck played a big part of it.

The Japanese also failed to concentrate their superior forces. Instead they divided their forces into 3.

There was a small carrier force attacking the distant Aleutian Islands as a diversion. The Midway attacking carrier group was 200 nautical miles distant from the battleship and transport group.

Although Midway was a great USN victory the cost was heavy. The codebreakers helped.

There was no Japanese plan 'B in case of failure.

The Japanese Imperial Marines had just been thrown back into the sea at Milne Bay, PNG by Australia's 18 Bde and Australian Militia for the first time.

Posted by: Paul | Sep 21 2021 2:13 utc | 72

Paul 71

From my understanding of it Japan decided to go overland to Port Moresby due to naval losses. I thought their logistics was somewhat intermittent by then, but with Australian logistics having to go over the Kokoda track it was tough going for both sides.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 2:28 utc | 73

Yesterday it was FUKUS, today it is AUKUS, tomorrow it will be...

Posted by: Edward | Sep 21 2021 2:30 utc | 74

ak74 said in part;

"These criminal wars are not the behavior of peaceful nations who are concerned about national defense."

"These criminal wars are the behavior of Anglo American Empires that fear that their domination of the world is slipping through their fingers."

Exactly, wars of greed, and the lust for more power. NONE had to be fought...

Posted by: vetinLA | Sep 21 2021 2:51 utc | 75

This is primarily wedge politics to get the Morrison happy clappers re-elected. Its more profitable and simpler than staging a colour revolution should the Labour Party be elected at the next election. Before this defence drivel the ALP would have had a strong chance. Wedge politics pure and simple.

Racist anti China propaganda will sell well amongst an electorate that is in full hate mode after the 'Wuhan virus and China flu' pressure pump.

With Murdoch running the media empire it is simply a matter of paper and air wave saturation propaganda. A few political seats in the reactionary heartland of Western Australia or South Australia and the House and Senate majority is guaranteed.

This is easy picking low political fruit and the electorate swallow it hook, line and sinker. It has only vague reference to defence sufficient to cloak a ploy in glad rags.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 21 2021 2:53 utc | 76

vetinLA 74

Alfa male. Nothing more nothing less. Anglostan wants to retain the position of alfa male.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 2:58 utc | 77

Indeed Australia is the new Saudi Arabia: few people sitting on huge mineral reserves in a strategic location - between the India and Pacific oceans. Both the US MICIMATT and the Chinese PCC are interested. Which overlords do you prefer?

Posted by: Antonym | Sep 21 2021 3:30 utc | 78

Just saw this skimming YT.

This is what the Raucous CAUKUS will be facing in the SouthCHN_Sea:

All Assigned Land, Sea and Air Forces of the PLA - first across a 110Mile Strait over TWN. See all those Troops running into Helicopters and Airborne Troop Transports? They'll be on TWN En Masse(SpecOps making an earlier arrival) - my SWAG - within Hour 4 of Day One.

Another SWAG: 48-72 Hrs from ZeroHour for the White Flag to be Raised in Taipei and/or the Exiled_Taipei_Govt_Reps to declare their "Resistance" somewhere in CAN. If the Exiled_TaipeiGovt set up camp in PHL, AUS, NZL - expected those to be taken next.

Cross your Fingers that CCP aren't persuaded by their Expansionists to ride that momentum to take PHL, AUS, and NZL unless Exiled_TaipeiGovt move there. No One can stop CHN_PLA from taking those. Raucous CAUKUS may throw a few CSGs into the Fray; but will lose them.

Nukes won't work, because CHN_PLA will Respond In Kind over CONUS.

So, FRA may be better off getting Kicked Out of AUS_MIC Deals After All...

Posted by: IronForge | Sep 21 2021 3:34 utc | 79

Australia sits on 33% of the world's uranium but managed never to build a nuclear power station - weird in times of CO2 fear and energy independence. PR China doesn't share your atomic fear at all and neither do others. Same story for nuclear boats or nuclear weapons.
Which memes hypnotized the Australian public: only emotional potions or also mental notions?

Posted by: Antonym | Sep 21 2021 3:40 utc | 80

@77 i would prefer the chinese. i am vegetarian

Posted by: lex talionis | Sep 21 2021 3:42 utc | 81

Yesterday it was FUKUS, today it is AUKUS, tomorrow it will be...

Posted by: Edward | Sep 21 2021 2:30 utc | 73


Posted by: Napolean Blownapart | Sep 21 2021 3:53 utc | 82

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 2:28 utc | 72

Yes that is correct, a two pronged attack to eliminate Port Moresby. The Kokoda Track attack finally failed because of logistics at Imita Ridge, not far away.

When will we ever learn?

Posted by: Paul | Sep 21 2021 3:59 utc | 83

Hopefully this wouldn't lead to war, Asia is the last place that needs a war right now.
The chinese must not bite the bait.

Posted by: Smith | Sep 21 2021 4:11 utc | 84

@ 83 smith.. one has to trust their is a difference between smart people and deceptive people, that being that they don't take the bait from the deceptive ones easily, if at all and play on there own terms... russia is a good example of this... they don't take the bait.. i think china is too smart and are also playing the long game here..

Posted by: james | Sep 21 2021 4:18 utc | 85

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Sep 21 2021 1:18 utc | 63

Agreed. That's our Scott to a T. Straight from the Coalition playbook.

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 21 2021 4:23 utc | 86

@ james

Yes, I think Xi Jinping is far too smart for that. China's greatest enemies still live in China i.e. the chinese billionaires, and he's cleaning house right now.

Posted by: Smith | Sep 21 2021 4:27 utc | 87

Posted by: rjb1.5 @ 6 said: "if there's one thing we need national unity on, it is kicking china's ass!"
<=How do we kick China's ass.. ? The people in China are just like the people in America. China is 50% ex USA industries.. What we in America need is our country back.. our industry back.. and training and education systems back, our ability to support ourselves without global trading..

The only way to kick China's ass is by doing what we do best.. get rid of copyright, patent and other monopoly laws, and compete in the scientific and inventive arena ..for industrial and manufacturing experience and technical expertise and product output?

Monopoly laws and treaties are 90% of the Balance Sheets of market listed companies (Ocean Tomo, 3rd quarter 2020) are intangible assets! Everyone one of those intangibles is a monopoly.

Jackrabbit @ 9 Trillions will be wasted on this new Cold War over the coming decades. We should be spending that on economic competitiveness not weapons systems and standing armies." Ak74 also feels the same way. I agree Americans convince the USA to stop wasting; so the Trillions c/b invested in ability and capacity to produce, just as China did 70 yrs ago.

Domestic citizens need to invest in their own expertise and their own industrial capacity and in their own technical know how but they need to share it with everyone so competition is based on productivity not inventiveness..

What's in America needs to stay in America until the nation state system is no more. Karlof1 @ 24 says the new Big Chinese Club is to include everybody, and I agree.. but copyright, patent laws and trade treaties make membership in the new big club unfriendly..

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 20 2021 21:33 utc | 33 I hope China puts us in our place——and soon. <= There is no reason for a 1st world, 2nd world and 3rd world nation. Everyone is entitled to share in the bounty.. divided we all fail, together we all live better.. but the nation state system, controlled by global monsters, has stabilized the 256 prison system into which we are all born and are busy manipulating us into what we each are.

Jackrabbit @ says its the missile base hidden deep in the propaganda that is important.. and
Sgt. Hartman @ 51 says its the Cuban Missile Crisis in Reverse<= I agree.. the cold an invention designed to prevent rebellion by the domestic governed in every affected nation state.

Peter AU1 @ 43 "If it is going to be the people rather than outside powers, then it must begin in the US as that is where the seat of power is in the anglosphere. <= I tend to think the people world wide <=are poised to rise against the entire war-mongering, pocket book-extracting oligarch-owned 256-member nation state system.. the People in the larger nations (America, Russia, and even China) will follow.. but only if the minor risings happen in a short enough time span, and with a broad enough distribution to be global. I think cold war is the nation state defense system designed to prevent global rising, the threat of war makes everybody afraid of everybody else?
Together we stand, divided they conquer.

Hoarsewhisperer @ 45 I agree. America used to be self sustaining before 1970, but the oligarch used monopoly laws to move everything from America to China or some cheap other place. its the domestic laws and global trade treaties that destroyed America. Who do you think is responsible for those laws and treaties?

Posted by: snake | Sep 21 2021 4:33 utc | 88

Paul "When will we ever learn?"

The brits in WWII now the Yanks. The yanks too will run like rabbits when the time comes. The brits run like rabbits down the malay peninsular forcing the Australians and Gurkha's to constantly fall back and ambush so the Japanese wouldn't get around them in the brit vacated space. When they got back to Singapore, the brits promptly surrendered to an inferior force. Yeah - such is life.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 4:35 utc | 89

Posted by: rambling idiot | Sep 21 2021 1:28 utc | 66

Living up to your monicker, eh? Any intelligent observer of Australian kulcha will know that footy and The Block is not a great alternative to wokism either. Just because I said I was an academic doesn't make me bourgeois (I own no property and rent on an academic salary = a teacher's salary) or leftist (a very different thing to reading and understanding Marx properly as vk will attest) or a fan of milk in coffee or a woke identity fan (I dislike alphabet soup). All I meant was that Keating was right: Austrlaia is a part of Asia and our interests lie there——not in an imagined homeland who booted us out across the 19th century and still treats us like colonial bogans (though we insist on living up to their expectations). As Robert Plant would say to you: Ramble on!

Posted by: Patroklos | Sep 21 2021 4:37 utc | 90

Here is more fallout and there is more fallout to come. I am sorry for Australia, its sleepwalking to a perfect storm disaster, eyes wide shut:

Sorry to mix my film metaphors.

Posted by: Paul | Sep 21 2021 4:39 utc | 91

@Jackrabbit | Sep 20 2021 19:20 utc | 9

I don't see how India and Japan feel slighted by a strengthening of the anti-China strategy that they each fully support. If anything they are encouraged by that.

France is (was?) a far closer ally to the US. India and Japan have just seen what the US does to its allies. I would think they would be nervous, especially as betrayal by the US has become a trend: see Kurdistan, Afghanistan, now Francostan.

Posted by: Cyril | Sep 21 2021 4:42 utc | 92

Amerikastan may use these subs to blockade the Straits of Malacca, which I have long been saying would be blockaded (along with maybe Gibraltar and the straits between Sweden and Denmark, whatever they're called) as part of an economic war against China and Russia. It will certainly not be mindless enough to take either Russia or China, let alone both, on in open combat.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Sep 21 2021 4:42 utc | 93

lex talionis 80

The blackfellas on the Palmerston track preferred them too. very much like grain fed beef or pork.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 4:50 utc | 94

my apologies but I don't mind putting a cat amongst the yuppie and academic pigeons.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Sep 21 2021 4:54 utc | 95

@Posted by: Paul | Sep 21 2021 2:13 utc | 71

The greatest Japanese mistake was not to launch the third attack wave upon Pearl Harbour:

"A third wave could have hit the vulnerable fuel tank farms and repair facilities of the U.S. Pacific Fleet. Had those been put of action, then the U.S. Navy would have had a much harder time recovering from the powerful blow dealt it on December 7. Admiral Chester Nimitz, commander of the Pacific fleet throughout most of World War II, claimed that doing so would have delayed an American counteroffensive by an entire year, and prolonged the war by two years."

Japan could never have won against the industrial might of the US, but it would have been a much longer fight.—heres-why-it-didnt-108706

Posted by: Roger | Sep 21 2021 4:56 utc | 96

Yeah, Right @ 63, Patroklos @ 85:

Don't forget, the US and the UK must have dangled something nice and juicy and full of $$$ for our Scotty personally to sweeten the deal for him.

And then of course some time in the next couple of months, or after next year's general elections in Australia, it is snatched away from him.

Jenny Morrison better hope that hubby uses the next few months wisely planning their escape to Paraguay or wherever before the torches and the pitchforks come for their nice house in Sylvania Waters or wherever in Sutherland Shire.

Posted by: Jen | Sep 21 2021 5:25 utc | 97

@33 Patroklos | Sep 20 2021 21:33

Generally agree, except for your last line.
I have no illusions about China -- although I doubt they have any aims other than trade (to their 'win-win'advantage of course).

Same 5-6 generation mix (with some Welsh thrown in). Not all pioneers were bad and many settlers did some heavy lifting the landmass out of the stone age.

The indigenous peoples were not a 'nation' but hunter-gather groups without built infrastructure. Treated poorly by the British empire at its height. But not systemically discriminated against until c. 1900 when the pre-apartheid ethos ozzed out of South Africa. They were not technically Australians (rather Brisish charges) until the Referrendum of 1966. If they were not to suffer British colonisation then they would be either untouchable Scheduled Classes at the bottom of a Hindu caste system, effectively errased like the SriLankan natives, speaking Japanese, or Indonesian (like the West Papua).

The country has little or no soveriegn agency and is run by a god-bothering Pentacostal cult. With this degeneracy there is little or no pragmatic choice other than to go with the USA basically (although France is still our closest neighbor in the islands off the east coast). The problem is not the USA per se, but rather that it has become effectively insane and run by a particularly obnoxious and incompetent political-criminal class according the law of rules (and not rule of laws). Whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad (or words to that effect).

The process appears to be a consolidation of the English speaking world and a raid on every money box available to pay for the never-ending fiat$ printing press. Free-market small-government capitalism has effectively died and now economic-Darwinism's evolutionary advantages of State-based capitalism with Chinese characterisitcs (e.g. China, Singapore, etc) are showing their results in the over-taking lane. We are now in the Thucydides Trap and preparing for war (or at least the bluff of such). If all goes worse, and Einstein was correct, we'll be re-joining the indigenous peoples with glowing sticks and stones for WW4.

Posted by: imo | Sep 21 2021 5:37 utc | 98

Posted by: Roger | Sep 21 2021 4:56 utc | 95

I think the Japanese were far too timid. The fuel tanks were another mistake.

They should have stayed around for a decisive engagement, carriers, battleships, fuel tankers troop transports and the occupation of Midway while they had the chance. The US carriers couldn't avoid that.

Posted by: Paul | Sep 21 2021 5:39 utc | 99

@83 Smith - The chinese must not bite the bait.

As if the bait appeared from nowhere, from out of the blue? As if the Chinese didn't already wargame its appearance long ago? Didn't see it coming and have provision made for it?

I know you know. Just agreeing.

The game is already won. We are watching the surrendering forces make their moves not even realizing that they are lowering their flags.

Posted by: Grieved | Sep 21 2021 5:45 utc | 100

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