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The MoA Week In Review – OT 2021-060
Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:
> While China has not publicly released a new nuclear posture statement that supersedes the 2006 White Paper, the construction of new missile silos configured to hold solid-fuel ICBMs possessing multiple warheads changes the nuclear posture options for China. The most likely change is to transition from a pure retaliatory strike capability (“counterattack in self-defense”) to a launch-on-warning posture, which means the Chinese missiles would leave their silos when an attack was detected instead of waiting for a nuclear attack to actually occur. Given China’s declared nuclear policy, a launch-on-warning posture allows China to retain its no-first-use policy while simultaneously ensuring the survivability of its nuclear forces. <
> Although Joe Biden has set a deadline for withdrawal of August 31, American defense sources told The Times that there was every intention to continue with the airstrikes after that date. <
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> The taking of province capitals continues. On August 6 the Taliban took Zaranji (Nimruz province). Yesterday they took Sheberghan (Jowzjan). Today Kunduz (Kunduz) and Sar-e Pol (Sar-e Pol) have fallen though fighting on their peripheries continues. Fighting is currently ongoing within Taloquan (Takhar), Fayzaabd (Badakhshan) and Mazar-i-Sharif (Balkh).
The first thing the Taliban do in every large city they capture is to free prisoners and to seize truckloads of weapons from police and military headquarters before the U.S. can bomb those. They can thereby increase their numbers even while taking casualties. – b. <
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Su-57 5th Gen Fighter @5thSu – 10:30 UTC 8. Aug 2021
So taliban will be the second largest “military force” in the world to operate #Oshkosh JLTV after #American forces😜😜
 bigger
—- Other issues:
Anti-China Lobby:
Dark Matter:
Woke Watch:
> To China watchers, what's going on in the U.S. is pretty familiar. A political faction that has been identified as dangerously disruptive and expendable is being purged. Main tool available is crime of insurrection under U.S. criminal code (10 years prison/barred from office) but unclear to me it will be able to nail El Trumpo let alone spade out his GOP sympathizers. Thoroughgoing purge easier with kind of tools the CCP has.
Maybe people who write longingly about a China coup can apply that state/party model to sorting out U.S. political headaches. The big no-no for the CCP today is dragging street action into factional politics a la Mao/GPCR (and Zhao Ziyang in 89). Upsets the applecart in a dangerous, uncontrolled way and takes things out of the elite comfort zone. U.S. is now developing a suite of legal/media tools to manage and channel street activism (BLM!) and suppress it as needed ("war on right wing extremism"!).
So instead of getting a cathartic and effective show trial where by previous arrangement the splittists recant and put the fear of G*d or at least quick and effective reprisal in the hearts of their followers, we get 1/6 performance art where the bad guys don't even show up. <
Use as open thread …
Biden blinked first:
US business pushes Biden for a China trade deal: Trump era tariffs on Chinese imports are fuelling record US inflation and threaten Biden’s chances at 2022 mid-term elections
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Recommended read:
Questions mounting over deleted early COVID-19 data and layoff of analyst in Florida, hinting on possible cases before Wuhan
Genomic sequencing of COVID-19 has proved that the virus might have emerged in several parts of the world in late 2019 and early 2020, not only in Wuhan, Yang said.
[…] Among the 171 early patients in Florida, none reported travel to China, and 103 reported no travel at all, The Palm Beach Post reported in May 2020.
[…] Regardless of the public’s worries and doubts, the Florida government stayed secretive about its epidemic information. It didn’t explain why there had been a possible local spread of COVID-19 prior to the Wuhan outbreak, or why it deleted the data of the 171 early patients, US media reports said.
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On the insuperable contradictions of capitalism:
The eviction moratorium mess exposes the decay in American politics
And fourth, the episode is a reflection of the cartoonish divisions of U.S. society into us vs. them. Not every landlord is rich and unfeeling. Not every renter in arrears is helpless and good. Indeed, the moratorium protects renters earning nearly up to $99,000 per year — and twice that for married couples who file joint tax returns.
[Opinion by the Editorial Board: There’s plenty of money to avoid evictions. States just have to spend it.]
It’s a free country, and Americans can subscribe to a belief that property is theft if they want to. But the law says otherwise. People are allowed to purchase real estate and to rent their property for money. There is no moratorium on mortgage payments for landlords. Their bills come due every month.
This brings us back to the first point: competence vs. posturing. As a society, we decided through our elected officials to cushion the impact of the pandemic on renters and landlords. Huge sums of money have been appropriated for that purpose. The task of government bureaucracies is to distribute that relief to legitimately needy renters so they can pay what they owe.
Instead we have a bureaucracy, the CDC, depriving property owners of contractual protections month after month — while members of Congress and the administration maneuver to blame the Supreme Court for future evictions.
Very rare editorial intervention in this final part of the opinion piece. However, for this alleged “plenty of money”, see the first article linked in this comment (“Biden blinked”). The USD Standard is not so strong as the American experts thought it was.
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A Pyrrhic Victory in a Broken Senate
I don’t understand this strategy adopted by the American Left. Biden never hide from anybody the fact that he’s from the moderate faction of the Democratic Party. He’s never hidden the fact he’s anti-socialist and that one of his missions is to stop the rising of the Democratic Socialists (who are not really socialists, but that’s a long story).
Now, imagine you’re a moderate, getting pressure from the Left in your own party (and also the Congress, because of the Squad). What’s your first instinct? Put bipartisanship above everything else so that you can cockblock the progressive agenda from your own party, of course! That means no infrastructure bill, no Green New Deal, no nothing.
This is not a Pyrrhic victory. This is an outright victory for the moderates. The only ones fooling themselves in this story are the Democratic Socialists.
NOTE: the headline changed today, probably at the request of its own author. The original headline was probably a censorship attempt by the NYT Editorial Board, with the aim to make a more favorable view of Biden.
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Is Putin trying to revive Gosplan?
Putin orders to approve plan for delivery of national development goals
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Oh, my…
Is capitalism just a phase? China struggles with the math
Markets, viewed through this metaphysical lens, are mere tools to be deployed as needed by the shapers of history. That’s a contrast with capitalist countries where markets and the laws that govern them are regarded, often with reverence, as something outside of ourselves, to which participants have no choice but to conform. “You can’t buck the market,” in the words of the U.K.’s free-market priestess, Margaret Thatcher.
Metaphysics the area of Philosophy that analyses what, by logic, cannot be investigated by science (e.g. what is God? Does God exist? What’s the meaning of life? What’s existence?). The author used the word wrongly, as the point he wants to make is that the “markets” are a natural, observable and measurable category (therefore scientific). I think the word he intended to use was “ontological”, as Ontology is the analysis of the thing as it really is, not the thing as it appears to be (Phenomenology).
Either way, the market is not a natural category. The natural category – which is indeed “eternal” – is exchange. Exchange in philosophy is any relation between equals. The market requires exchange through money, and we know money is not natural, but historical.
This dichotomy implies some differences in behavior by China — such as, dare we say, unilaterally declaring that successful industries employing tens of thousands of people shouldn’t exist, at least as for-profit entities listed on foreign stock markets. And then hastily convening talks with investment banks and fund managers to try to limit the damage once the fallout has spread to the rest of the market.
The market reaction was entirely rational and predictable. Equity value can be viewed as a function of dividends (or cash flows), growth and the required rate of return. The higher the return that investors demand, the lower the value. The “equity risk premium” is a nebulous concept to pin down numerically, but the logic is clear. The higher the risk of a company or market, the higher the return that investors should demand to compensate them. A market that suddenly erases an entire industry’s profits is, ipso facto, riskier than one that doesn’t. In that light, investors were right to mark down Chinese equities relative to other markets.
Marx’s universal laws of history may have the last laugh; it’s too early to tell, as Zhou Enlai is reputed (wrongly) to have said about the French Revolution. In the meantime, the laws of mathematics are proving quite immutable, too.
But, if the “markets” precede capitalism, then proving the “markets” are here to stay does not save capitalism. You could have (and will have) socialism with market – specially in its early phases. The USSR had free market dominating its economic landscape until at least 1926, and remained alive until well into the first Five-Year Plan (1928-1933). Even then, the USSR continue to engage in the international markets, specially with imports of high technology.
So, the author’s error is making the postulate capitalism=markets. Indeed, that’s a common misconception of many liberals I hear since I was a child. Westerners who grew up during the Cold War think exchange will suddenly stop if capitalism ceases to exist – that’s obviously a grotesque distortion of reality.
And Mathematics doesn’t have “laws”. They’re the only natural sciences that does not have a foundation. Instead, they have a constellation of axioms that does not close the system. Some (a minority) even say Mathematics is not a science, but merely a tool of science or the language of science.
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One more to the “freedom of religion as a weapon against the Godless Reds” collection. As a bonus, this article also throws to the table another collapse theory of China: that a glorious religious restoration will destroy the Atheist Communists:
There’s a religious revival going on in China: China’s atheist Communist Party is allowing certain religious practices and has stopped criticizing Confucius teachings
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From the Bezos Blog:
Private fortunes shouldn’t be abolished. But our society shouldn’t be this unequal, either. WaPo Editorial Board.
The only way to keep both is through perpetual growth where the new excess wealth is distributed more proportionally to the bottom than to the top. But then, extending this logic to the infinite, that would mean full equality would be achieved, therefore abolishing private fortunes (if everybody is rich, nobody is rich).
The WaPo Editorial Board is trying to calm down the masses with cheap (and utopian) morality.
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Is Taiwan Next? In Taipei, young people like Nancy Tao Chen Ying watched as the Hong Kong protests were brutally extinguished. Now they wonder what’s in their future.
What’s the future the girl envisaged? Her family and her ilk ransacking Beijing in a triumphal conquest?
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Commemorating anniversary of the August Storm, FSB releases new documents:
FSB for the first time declassified evidence of Japan’s preparation for war with the USSR
The most striking feature of the Soviet campaign against Japan was the reversal of fortunes for the Red Army. Contrary to the Western campaign, the war against Japan was swift, meticulously planned, highly automated (i.e. much less human resources intensive), much more precise and much more effective. All the myths erected during the war in Europe (that the Red Army simply threw men to die until they achieved victory, that the Red Army was technologically backward) evaporated during the liberation of China. The human losses for the Red Army were minimal, its commanders were in top form and had the time and resources to do what they wanted to do, and the Japanese were overrun (i.e. they retreated slower than the Soviets advanced, therefore there wasn’t even the opportunity to encirclement or gruesome position warfare).
In some weeks, Japan’s magnum opus – the Kwantung Army – turned to dust. And to think that, some decades earlier, the Kwantung Army was so powerful and so prestigious that it de facto formed a parallel State in Manchuria, which not even the Prime Minister was capable of fully control. A classic case in History of “how the mighty have fallen”.
Posted by: vk | Aug 8 2021 14:45 utc | 5
@Mar man | Aug 8 2021 14:18 utc | 4
What happend in last 20 years? Why there is so much surprise and astonishment every where in every country, in evry corner, about Taliban strength? Taliban is nothing other than Afghan mass grass root people resistance, in tribal, rural area. There are some good documentary films in Iran about Taliban ( unfortunatly they are in Farsi, I did not see translation), below is a link to one of them.
Alone among the Taliban, a Documentary film
This Iranian filmmaker Mohsen Eslamzadeh makes several documentary films during several years, and made few documentary films from his visits to Taliban. I think, the above film was made in 2015 – 2018. His films were encountered with a cold reception in Iran, until recently. He had financial problem and funding to make his films.
He made several journeys to Afghanistan in order to get permission to film the Taliban. In the begining his requests violently denied by Taliban, finally he got better contacts and he was permitted to meet them alone. He got an appointment, and some one picked him up alone. His raw filsm is about 13 hours, what is presented here is less than an hour. He witnesses shocking scenes and visits courts, judgements, jails, opium cultivation, warlords, war fronts, mine fields, leaders council authorities meetings, Daesh battel with Taliban, and people living between colorful flags, today under Taliaban, tomorrow under American, the next day under Daesh and Al-Qadeh, he tries to survive alone among the Taliban. a less than hour film is more informative than houdred books about Taliban.
Taliban is accepted and protected and promoted by rural and tribal people under western bombordments. The western civilization can not understand Taliban .
Western jurnalism could understand Ho Chi Minh trail, General Giap, and Vietnam resistance, because they could catogorise it under Comunism. But they are unable to understand Taliban. That is too alien for them,
Posted by: arata | Aug 8 2021 17:39 utc | 16
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