The Wall Street Journal describes the current situation at the Kabul airport as '‘Saigon on Steroids’
It indeed is as satellite pictures and a number of videos posted on Twitter show. Thousands of people rushed towards the airport. There was some panic at one of the entry gates and three persons there seem to have died in a stampede. Hundreds ran onto the runway. Other tried to climb fly bridges to get into planes.
On the military side of the airport the U.S. military fired shots to keep people from storming it. They later set up razor wire.
People ran along a departing C-17, a large military airplane. Some climbed onto the plane's landing gear doors.
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The plane started, the landing gear retracted and the doors closed. At least three people fell to their death. Some others were alledgedly overrun by a plane and died.
Those sad little stories are an aside in the larger picture but it does reflect how little control the U.S. has over the airport. Why was there no planing for this?
These pictures will dominate the news cycle and upset further evacuation plans:
Ruffini @EenaRuffini – 13:30 UTC · Aug 16, 2021
NEW: Situation at the airport is “tenuous” and consideration is being given to pulling all Americans out and leaving the Afghans behind. That decision has not been made but it is on the table and will need to be addressed if Us can’t get control of the airport. (Martin/Ruffini)
That would actually be good as the current chaos is totally unnecessary. There have been very few revenge acts by the Taliban around the country. They have clear orders to not commit any and they behave very disciplined. There is no proof that anyone's security in Kabul, be they diplomats or Afghan civilians of any stripe, is in danger.
The Taliban spokesman confirms this:
Suhail Shaheen. محمد سهیل شاهین @suhailshaheen1 – 15:15 UTC · 16 Aug 2021
We assure all diplomats, embassies, consulates, and charitable workers, whether they are international or national that not only no problem will be created for them on the part of IEA but a secure environment will be provided to them, Inshallah.
Still – the U.S. is sending even more soldiers and soon there will be 7,000 of them. They will hardly fit into the airport.
The city of Kabul was quiet today. Taliban patrol the roads and guard important offices. Men walked or drove around and did their jobs but few women were seen. The Talibs greeted friendly:
Obaidullah Baheer @ObaidullaBaheer – 11:05 UTC · Aug 16, 2021
I went out imagining savagery and anger from them, I imagined seeing #KhaledHosseini's world. Yet, I was pleasantly surprised at their discipline and respectfulness. I hope they are learning to change their image of us too. [4/5]
There was even a Shia procession in Kabul today which caused no incidents.
It seems that Taliban had no plan to be in Kabul yet. But yesterday, after the higher government officials fled with all the money they had stolen, public security broke down and some looting took place. The Taliban had to move in to secure the city.
These are no longer the Taliban of the 1990s.
Afghanistan scholar Antonio Giustozzi sees reasons for hope:
Although the Taliban may well adopt the “emirate” label for Afghanistan again, it seems that their plan is to incorporate new features in their government.
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The Taliban have hinted recently that they would like to adopt the 1964 constitution as the basis of a new constitution that will be drafted. This in general has been viewed as a positive signal, given that the 1964 constitution was in the past hailed as the start of Afghanistan’s decade of democracy. However, it does not mention political parties and it is a monarchist constitution. We will also have to see what “updates” the Taliban will want to bring to it.
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The Taliban appear bent on incorporating elements of the previous regime, with whom in fact they have already made deals over the past few months. Among the most prominent are former foreign minister Salahuddin Rabbani, former president Hamid Karzai and former deputy president Karim Khalili. Some Islamic parties and groups, such as Hizb-i Islami, led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, have also made deals with the Taliban and are likely to be represented in the future government.The Taliban have also been reaching out to mid-level technocrats and bureaucrats, inviting them to stay in the country to serve the next government. They have started absorbing army specialists, in order to operate advanced equipment.
The geopolitical consequences of the U.S. defeat will be felt for a long time. As Andrei Martyanov writes:
The world took notice and the United States handed the victory to Islamic fanatics and thus emboldened them, the same way the United States fanned the flames of Political Islam in 1980s and helped to form the force which is radically anti-civilizational in its essence.
This IS the main failure of the combined West and it will be, yet again, up to someone else to clean this fucking mess after the US, whose political and military "elites" not only did not learn shit from anything but are incapable of learning. In that, when combined with a myriad of other economic, scientific, cultural and moral failures, modern West, headed by the United States, declared itself a failure. Events in Kabul today demonstrate perfectly and are the epitome of the modern West.
I am much less concerned about the Taliban as a winning local resistance in Afghanistan than about the example their victory sets for more radical Islamists in other parts of the world.
Afghanistan's neighbors will see to it that Afghanistan will not again become a black hole or a nest for foreign radicals. As Giustozzi remarks:
Overall, however, the primary concerns of the future Taliban-led government will be pragmatic. It will have to manage relations with neighbouring countries – Pakistan, Iran, Russia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and China – most of which have existing relations with the Taliban, but do not entirely trust them. All have interests that they want the Taliban to respect. The Taliban-led government will struggle to keep the economy afloat and to maintain the provision of essential services, which have been suspended in much of Afghanistan as they advanced.
Yesterday Iran was informed by Russia that it will now become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). So far the SCO included China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India and Pakistan. Iran will now join and Afghanistan has observer status. This block, which is to a large part about military and policy coordination, will cover for Iran when the U.S. will try to escalate over Iran's nuclear program. Today Pakistan's prime minister Imran Khan was in Iran for further talks. He will then travel to Doha to talk with the Taliban leadership.
The SCO will also take care of Afghanistan. It has enough collective power to help and develop Afghanistan over the next decades.
The U.S. though lost a lot of face. The defeat, and the bad handling of it, have been noticed around the world and especially in Asia. There the U.S. has tried to recruit 'allies' for its self inflicted and totally unnecessary confrontation with China.
But who will want to join such a feeble 'superpower' after watching its recent performance in Afghanistan, elsewhere, or even at home?
