|
The U.S. Has A Plan For What’s Next in Afghanistan – It Does Not Include Peace
Secretary Antony Blinken @SecBlinken – 1:34 UTC · Aug 31, 2021
I want to drive home today that America’s work in Afghanistan continues. We have a plan for what’s next, and we’re putting it into action.
The codename for the plan which Secretary Blinken is putting into action has not been officially released. It will likely be called "Eternal Revenge" or something similar.
The U.S. is not a good loser. Nor are President Biden and Blinken. They will take revenge for the public outcry their chaotic evacuation of troops and civilians from Afghanistan has caused. The Taliban will be blamed for it even as they, following U.S. requests, had escorted groups of U.S. citizens to the gates of Kabul's airport.
One can anticipate what their plan entails by looking at the process that led to yesterdays UN Security Council resolution about Afghanistan. The full resolution has not been published yet but the UN reporting on it gives the gist:
Security Council urges Taliban to provide safe passage out of Afghanistan
Thirteen of the 15 ambassadors voted in favour of the resolution, which further demands that Afghanistan not be used as a shelter for terrorism.
Permanent members China and Russia abstained.
As the resolution only 'urges' it is obviously minimal and not binding. It is not what the U.S. had set out to achieve. It wanted a much stronger one with possible penalties (see 'holding … accountable' below) should the Taliban not follow it.
Prior to the UNSC meeting France and Great Britain had proposed to create a 'safe zone' in Kabul. That request has been silently dropped – likely over Chinese and Russian concerns about Afghanistan's sovereignty.
On August 29 Blinken had talked with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi about a binding resolution. The State Department readout of the call was minimal:
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke today with PRC State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi about the importance of the international community holding the Taliban accountable for the public commitments they have made regarding the safe passage and freedom to travel for Afghans and foreign nationals.
The readout by China reveals that much more than that was discussed:
Cont. reading: The U.S. Has A Plan For What’s Next in Afghanistan – It Does Not Include Peace
Ukraine Shuts Down Opposition Media – U.S. Ambassador Applauds ‘Daring Act’, Calls For Support
On Wednesday the comedian and president of the Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with U.S. President Joe Biden in the White House. The invitation to Zelensky was a booby prize handed out after Biden announced that he would not act against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that will soon bring gas from Russia to Germany. The Ukraine is likely to lose money it currently gets for gas transfers through its pipelines from Russia to west Europe.
Zelensky is under pressure at home and his country will soon run out of money. He will have an endless list of requests but is likely to get nothing of value.
To prepare the scene for Zelensky the former ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, who is by the way wrong on everything Russia, wrote an oped for the Washington Post. It was published on August 23.
Opinion: The U.S. and Ukraine need to reboot their relationship. Here’s how they can do it.
Setting out a cold war 2.0 scenario McFaul argues to emphasize 'democracy':
Especially after the return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan, there will be little hope for Biden’s proclaimed democracy agenda and his democracy summits planned for this year and next if Ukraine’s democratic experiment falters. Its success will empower small-D democrats across the region and the world. Its failure will be a boon to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his autocratic allies from Minsk to Beijing.
…
On democracy, Zelensky and Biden also need a fresh approach. U.S. officials must stop lecturing the Ukrainians so publicly on corruption. Of course, fighting corruption must remain central; aid conditionality should be strengthened. But talking more broadly about our shared commitment to deepening Ukrainian democracy makes for a better public message — especially because anytime Biden mentions “corruption” and “Ukraine” in the same sentence, his opponents will add “Hunter Biden.”
That last part is actually good advice. Biden surely knows all about corruption in the Ukraine as his son signed the receipts for the hundreds of thousands the Biden family got from there.
So lets talk about democracy and here is where McFaul goes off the cliff:
Cont. reading: Ukraine Shuts Down Opposition Media – U.S. Ambassador Applauds ‘Daring Act’, Calls For Support
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2021-066
Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2021-066
How The CIA Used ISIS-K To Keep Its Afghanistan Business
There is a larger story behind the recent terror events in Afghanistan. Here is an attempt to track it down.
Over the years several reports by the Afghan Analyst Network (AAN) about the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP or ISIS-K) show that it had grown out of militant groups from Pakistan. A report from 2016 describes extensively how they were fostered by the Afghan state:
The IS fighters who pioneered the Khorasan franchise of the IS were Pakistani militants who had long been settled in the southeastern districts of Nangarhar, in the Spin Ghar mountains or its foothills, bordering the tribal agencies on the Pakistani side of the Durand Line.
Before choosing to join ISKP, these militants operated under different brands, mainly under the umbrella of the ever-loosening Tehrik-e Taleban Pakistan (TTP). The bulk of these militants had been arriving in Nangarhar since 2010 mainly from the Orakzai, North Waziristan and Khyber tribal agencies.
Pakistan alleges that the TTP is supported by RAW, India's secret services. It may have also helped to finance the ISKP outlet.
Hoping to use them against Pakistan, the Afghan government started to woo some of these fighters, according to influential tribal elders involved in helping relation-building from the districts that sheltered the guest militants.
…
However, efforts by the Afghan intelligence service, the National Directorate of Security (NDS), to woo Pakistani militants in Nangarhar have not been confined to Lashkar-e Islam or to militants from Khyber. Tribal elders and ordinary residents of Achin, Nazian and Kot testify that fighters from Orakzai and Mohmand agencies belonging to different factions of the TTP have been allowed free movement across the province, as well as treatment in government hospitals. When moving outside their hub in Nangarhar’s southern districts, they would go unarmed. In off-the-record conversations with AAN, government officials have verified this type of relationship between segments of the Pakistani militants and the NDS, as have pro-government tribal elders and politicians in Jalalabad. They described this state of affairs as a small-scale tit-for-tat reaction to Pakistan’s broader and longer-ranging, institutionalised support to the Afghan Taleban in their fight against the Afghan government.
The Afghan state's NDS was a CIA proxy agency. During the mid 1990s the intelligence chief of the Northern Alliance, Amrullah Saleh, had been trained by the CIA in the United States. After the U.S. overthrew the Taliban government Saleh became the head of the NDS. The NDS also had extensive relations with India's secret service.
While the U.S. pretended to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) consistent reports from various sides alleged that core ISIS personnel were extracted by unmarked U.S. helicopters from Iraq and Syria and transferred to Nangarhar where they reinforced the ISKP militants.
Hadi Nasrallah @HadiNasrallah – 1:18 UTC · Aug 28, 2021
In 2017 and 2020, Syria’s SANA reported that that US helicopters transported between 40 and 75 ISIS militants from Hasakah, North Syria to an “unknown area”. The same thing was reported for years in Iraq by the PMU along with reports that US helicopters dropped aid for ISIS.
As Alex Rubinstein summarizes:
Cont. reading: How The CIA Used ISIS-K To Keep Its Afghanistan Business
The Never Ending Lies About The War On Afghanistan
The U.S. military has lied for 20 years about the war in Afghanistan. Do not expect it to suddenly tell the truth.
Thursday's suicide bombing in Kabul and the following panic killed more than 150 civilians (some 30 of whom were British-Afghan), 28 Taliban fighters and 13 U.S. troops.
Before the attack happened a Taliban spokesperson had told RT that they had warned the U.S. of an imminent ISPK attack.
Repeating Pentagon claims the New York Times describes the attack:
At 5:48 p.m., the bomber, wearing a 25-pound explosive vest under clothing, walked up to the group of Americans who were frisking people hoping to enter the complex. He waited, officials said, until just before he was about to be searched by the American troops. And then he detonated the bomb, which was unusually large for a suicide vest, killing himself and igniting an attack that would leave dozens of people dead, including 13 American service members.
If the suicide bomber was so close to the inner perimeter checkpoint manned by U.S. forces why were so many Taliban, who manned checkpoints at the outer perimeter, killed in the incident?
The Times writes:
Just after the bomb went off, Defense Department officials said, fighters nearby began firing weapons. The officials said that some of the Americans and Afghans at Abbey Gate might have been hit by that gunfire.
What fighters nearby?
The BBC correspondent in Kabul has asked people who where there:
Secunder Kermani @SecKermani – 7:21 UTC · Aug 28, 2021
Our report from last night on the awful ISIS attack outside Kabul airport as families still search Kabul's morgues for their loved ones..
Many we spoke to, including eyewitnesses, said significant numbers of those killed were shot dead by US forces in the panic after the blast
Embedded video
The correspondent talks to the brother a London taxi driver who was in Kabul to fetch his family:
A: "Somehow I saw American soldiers, Turkish soldiers and the fire was coming from the bridges, from the towers."
Q: "From the soldiers?"
A: "Yeah, from the soldiers."
(Side note: Some of the towers around the airport were reportedly manned by members of the CIA's Afghan death squads.)
Another witness:
Narrator: "Noor Mohamed had been deployed alongside American forces."
A man holding up an identity card of a friend talks about his death in English.
A: "The guy has served U.S. army for years. And the reason he lost his life – he wasn't killed by Taliban, he wasn't killed by ISIS, he was (unintelligible)."
Q: "How can you be sure?"
A: "Because of the bullet. The bullet went inside of his head. Right here." (Points to the back of his head.) "He doesn't have any (other) injury."
The Pentagon did not respond to the BBC's request for comments.
Further U.S. Hostility Against The Taliban Is Not In Its Best Interest
The chaotic evacuation of international 'assets' and economic migrants from Kabul airport just got more complicate.
An hour ago a suicide bomber blew himself up amidst a crowd which was waiting to get access to the airport. Additionally gunfire was heard. At least 13 people got killed. There are pictures and video of dozens of killed and wounded Afghans.
Hours ago the U.S. and UK had warned of an imminent ISIS attack on the airport and had asked their citizens to stay away from the airport.
The evacuation flights for civilians were supposed to end today. That was to leave time for the several thousand military on the ground to wrap up their mission before the August 31 end date. The Taliban have insisted on that final date.
Whoever has sent in the suicide bomber wanted to interrupt that process. Your guess who that was is as good as mine.
The whole evacuation panic was and is, in my view, totally unnecessary.
The Taliban have no interest in taking hostages or in taking systematic revenge on Afghan personnel that had worked with foreign governments. They publicly issued a complete amnesty. They also need money, international recognition and support.
The U.S. has blocked the Afghan central bank accounts with the Fed and ordered the IMF and the World Bank to not provide money to Afghanistan. That is huge leverage.
The U.S. could have used that leverage in a positive sense to organize, if necessary at all, a very smooth and orderly evacuation of people by normal civil flights over several weeks or months. But for some reason the Pentagon friendly media in Washington created an artificial panic and set off a monstrous military emergency show.
The U.S. should by the way lift its block on that Afghan money. It is in its best interest to have good relations with the Taliban. The German chancellor Merkel recognized that. She announced that Germany will continue to support Afghanistan even under Taliban rule. It is the right thing to do because Afghanistan is still a dirt poor country, because there are people in need and because it is in 'western' interest to keep Afghanistan peaceful and united. An unruly Afghanistan under financial pressure is way more likely to create trouble abroad – be it as shelter for global militants or as a source of huge refugee streams.
Withholding money does not create long term leverage. Leverage is to use money to reward good behavior. The Taliban have so far behaved very well. They protected the airport from again being overrun. All of Kabul except for the airport is living a normal life. People are back at work, the banks have reopened.
President Joe Biden has taken on political risk by ordering the complete retreat from Afghanistan. Should he consider further hostility against the country, by financial means or by igniting a new civil war as some Republican demands, he will not gain the political profit from it.
Russian And U.S. Prison Tales
The very scary prison life the New York Times once envisioned for the criminal Aleksei Navalny seems to differ from the reality he now describes.
New York Times – March 1 2021
‘Your Personality Deforms’: Navalny Sent to Notoriously Harsh Prison
by Andrew E. Kramer and Steven Erlanger
Aleksei A. Navalny, the Russian opposition politician, is going to serve his prison sentence in a penal colony notorious for disciplinary measures considered harsh even by Russian standards, Russian news outlets reported on Monday.
…
The site, Penal Colony No. 2 and also known by its initials IK2, is in the Vladimir Region in European Russia east of Moscow, indicating Mr. Navalny will not serve his sentence in the country’s harshest prisons in Siberia or the Arctic.
But the colony is known for strict enforcement of rules and for making extensive use of a separate, harsher, punishment facility within its walls where inmates are not allowed to mingle or even talk among themselves, according to former inmates and lawyers.
…
While guards oversee the prison, fellow prisoners maintain discipline within the brigades, either in cooperation with guards, a group known as “activists,” or as criminal gang leaders, known as “thieves in law.”
Penal Colony No. 2 is controlled by activists in cahoots with the warden, according to former inmates, an arrangement that will allow the prison administration to strictly control Mr. Navalny’s life at all times. Activist-controlled prisons are called “red zone” facilities, in Russian prison parlance.
…
All the same, at Penal Colony No. 2, activists command fellow prisoners to perform meaningless tasks such as making beds multiple times a day, or undressing and then dressing again, according to accounts of former convicts.
Dmitri Dyomushkin, a nationalist politician who served time in the colony, described conditions in the separate punishment brigade, where Mr. Navalny could wind up for infractions as minor as failing to button his jacket, as psychologically harrowing.
…
Inmates spend hours standing with their hands clasped behind their backs, looking at their feet, forbidden from making eye contact with the guards, Mr. Dyomushkin said in an interview on the Echo of Moscow radio station.
Some four month later the above propaganda collided with reality.
New York Times – August 25 2021
In First Interview From Jail, an Upbeat Navalny Discusses Prison Life
By Andrew E. Kramer
Cont. reading: Russian And U.S. Prison Tales
Open Thread 2021-65
The Foreign Policy Borg And The Retreat From Afghanistan – by Michael Brenner
by Michael Brenner
There are few things in this kaleidoscopic world of ours that we can count on – for predictability, for fixity of outlook, for unswerving resistance to the vicissitudes of life. The American foreign policy community is one of them. They reliably react to stunning events in the world with reiteration of what they have been saying for years and decades They do so in unison. They never admit error of analysis or of policy, they preserve a righteous tone, and they retain a permanent inventory of persons to scapegoat – and, equally important, those who are always exempt from blame.
The Afghan debacle demonstrates, once again, how deeply entrenched this behavioral pattern is. It is self-evident, it is glaring, and it is a reason for both shame and for doubting the United States’ ability to conduct its external relations in a sober, reasonable manner. Recent essays of mine have sought to explicate this phenomenon. There is no point in trying to summarize them. Instead, here are several declarative statements intended to correct some of the most egregious misrepresentations about what had happened and its implications:
Cont. reading: The Foreign Policy Borg And The Retreat From Afghanistan – by Michael Brenner
To Instigate Against Taliban CNN Claims Contradiction Where None Is Evident
The 'western' media are pushing for a continued war on Afghanistan or, if that is not possible, for putting devastating sanctions onto its people.
To diminish Afghanistan potential is part of the continuing hostility. The evacuation of Afghanistan's 'western' affiliated professional elite should be seen in that light.
There is no evidence that more than a handful of the people now being lifted out of Kabul are under threat. To justify their evacuation requires to publish horror stories about the Taliban.
CNN comes up with this one:
Taliban issue death sentence for brother of Afghan translator who helped US troops, according to letters obtained by CNN
The Taliban have sentenced the brother of an Afghan translator to death, according to letters obtained by CNN, accusing him of helping the US and providing security to his brother, who served as an interpreter to American troops.
…
The letters are just one example of how the Taliban are directly threatening Afghans who worked with the US or are family members of those who have, leaving them scrambling to flee the country in the wake of the Taliban takeover.
…
"You have been accused of helping the Americans," the Taliban wrote in the first of three letters to the Afghan man, adding, "You are also accused of providing security to your brother, who has been an interpreter."
The first letter from the Taliban, which is hand written, orders the man to appear for a hearing.
The second handwritten letter is a notice of his failure to appear for the hearing.
In the third letter, which is typed, the Taliban notify the man that because he rejected previous warnings to stop "your servitude to the invading crusaders" and ignored a subpoena to appear for a hearing, he was "guilty in absentia" and will be sentenced to death. The Taliban delivered the letters within the last three months to the interpreter's brother, according to the former service member who worked with the interpreter.
…
"These court decisions are final and you will not have the right to object," the third letter reads. "You chose this path for yourself and your death is eminent [sic], God willing."
The letters contradict assurances Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid made at a press conference last week, as the group tries to project a more moderate image to the world.
"Nobody will be harmed in Afghanistan," Mujahid said. "Of course, there is a huge difference between us now and 20 years ago."
How please do letters written "within the last three month" contradict a public amnesty guarantee "made at a press conference last week"?
Have the letters arrive after the amnesty was announced? Has the man be arrested or killed? CNN does not claim that. Where then is the contradiction?
Cont. reading: To Instigate Against Taliban CNN Claims Contradiction Where None Is Evident
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2021-064
Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:
It was a week where the U.S. retreat from Afghanistan overshadowed everything else. That is okay as huge consequneces will flow from these events.
sayed salahuddin @sayedsalahuddin – 11:59 UTC · 22 Aug 2021
Almost all parts of Afghanistan enjoying peace for a week now after over 42 years of war, but Kabul airport has become the most violent part.
Some haggling seems to continue today but the outcome is assured.
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2021-064
Afghanistan – The New ‘Northern Alliance’ Resistance Has Already Fallen Apart
Yesterday I explained why I assume that Britain is trying to incite a new 'Northern Alliance' insurgency against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
But as today evolved that project, just three days after it went public, is dead.
Yesterday the anti-Taliban Long War Journal claimed that the insurgents were already making progress:
The nascent resistance to the Taliban that has organized in Panjshir province has launched a counteroffensive against the Taliban and has taken control of four districts in two neighboring provinces.
The Panjshir resistance force, which is flying the flag of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, took control of Dih Saleh, Andarab, and Puli Hisar districts in eastern Baghlan province, as well as Charikar in Parwan. The resistance is led by former Vice President and National Directorate of Security chief Amrullah Saleh [See FDD’s Long War Journal report, After fall of Kabul, resistance to Taliban emerges in Panjshir].
Anti-Taliban fighters “captured those [four] key districts and are threatening the Taliban’s control of the highway to the north,” a source within the resistance told FDD’s Long War Journal. They also claimed to take “all of Andarab back.”
The news from Afghanistan about that fight was murky and difficult to confirm. It seems that the insurgents shortly occupied one district center while there was inconclusive fighting around two others. About a dozen Taliban were said to be dead together with a number of insurgents. I would not trust any 'source within the resistance'. The Saleh/Massoud gang is already known for making implausible and exaggerated claims:
Gareth Browne @BrowneGareth – 17:05 UTC · Aug 19, 2021
Just spoke with Ahmad Massoud in Panjshir. He says 000s of Afghan soldiers, special forces, and 47 pilots have taken refuge in the Panjshir valley since last week, bringing with them 000s of humvees, 4 helicopters. Calling for international support. Story soon @TheNationalNews
Still the LWJ authors were cautiously optimistic:
While the Panjshir resistance’s odds remain long, if it is able to open a lifeline to neighboring countries and receive international support, it stands a chance to not only divert and disrupt Taliban operations but create a groundswell of interest that could lead to a larger campaign with more sustainable momentum.
That a connection to a neighboring country would help the insurgents is, in my opinion, a misperception. Russia and China would come down hard on, for example Uzbekistan, if it would allow its border to be used to support the insurgency. Every neighbor country of Afghanistan now has an interest in a united Afghanistan at peace. That is why any insurgency against the Taliban will have no chance.
The Russian ambassador to Afghanistan agrees:
Cont. reading: Afghanistan – The New ‘Northern Alliance’ Resistance Has Already Fallen Apart
Britain Wants A Rerun Of The War On Afghanistan
Immediately after the Taliban victory an enormous dis-information campaign was launched to again badmouth them.
There are now suddenly all kinds of allegations that the Taliban are doing this or that bad. These are mostly based on hearsay and no or very little evidence is presented. Don't believe them without direct confirmation from original sources.
The launch of Amrullah Saleh and Ahmed Massoud as leaders of a new resistance against the Taliban must have been long prepared. One does not get op-ed space in the Washington Post and several big European papers just some three days after Kabul falls without some lead time and without serious 'western' backing.
While Saleh is an old CIA spy Ahmed Massoud has been prepared by the Brits:
After finishing his secondary school education in Iran, Massoud spent a year on a military course at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst.In 2012, he commenced an undergraduate degree in War Studies at King's College London where he obtained his bachelor's degree in 2015. He obtained his master's degree in International Politics from City, University of London in 2016.
The type of disinformation campaign combined with the well prepared launch of the 'resistance campaign', allegedly with SAS trained Afghan soldiers, and the regional op-ed placements let me conclude that he is run by the Brits. They are quite excellent in their 'strategic communication' disinformation business.
The conservatives speaking in their special parliament session were also the most angry about the outcome of their imperial war on Afghanistan and about their own inability to stop its end while claiming to be a 'Global Britain'.
As Richard Murphey remarks on Withering Britain:
This then is a massive moment for the role of the US in the world. It does not create a vacuum, but the risk that one might follow – which China will all too willingly seek to fill – seems very real at present.
And where does Britain fit into this? In a sense it does not. The US did not consults us, and is still not apparently telling us what it is doing in Kabul. We were not a player. There was no special, relationship. Our opinion was not worth having. It did not matter to the US. The pretence is over.
With that the vestige of British power, built on the coat-tails of the 1940s and the mutually advantageous myths formed since then, has gone. We are now just a rather remote, small, and fairly insignificant state who is just one amongst many. The delusion that we are otherwise has to go.
But will the delusion disappear? Will we, with its demise, stop building aircraft carriers that were strategically useless decades before they were designed? Will we stop thinking ourselves exceptional? And will an England thwarted become ever more aggressive towards its last vestiges of empire – those states it subjects to its rule within the supposed United Kingdom, which increasingly feels anything but that?
These are big questions. Only time can provide the answers. But I have a feeling that everything has changed. The image of British power has withered away. If all involved now deal with the reality for the these islands and their future that might be for the better. If at the same time we stop hectoring and abusing the world and actually learn to live with and work alongside it, so much the better too. But will we do that? That’s anyone’s guess. The wise will hope that we do.
That hope is, see above, in vain.
Stories about alleged Taliban acts 'against Afghan women' will now again get special features. Women have been used to sell the long war on Afghanistan since its very beginning. But how many women were actually killed by Soviet, British and U.S. bombs during the war?
On the abuse of feminism to promote the never ending war on Afghanistan, the badmouthing of the Taliban please read the excellent piece Afghanistan: The End of the Occupation which was co-written by a female anthropologist who has done field work there.
Open Thread 2021-63
Afghanistan – What Will Happen Next? A Provisional Government And A New Constitution.
The Taliban leadership continues to arrive in Kabul.
Anas Haqqani is the son of the Jalaluddin Haqqani and younger brother of Sirajuddin Haqqani, the head of the Haqqani Network. He is part of the Taliban negotiation team in Qatar. Today he and a high level delegation of Taliban met with former president Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah, the Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation.
bigger
Also coming to Kabul is currently Khalil-ur-Rahman, an uncle of Sirajuddin Haqqani, for whom the FBI offers a $5 million reward because he collected donations for the Taliban.
Yesterday deputy Taliban chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a co-founder of the Taliban, arrived from Qatar in Kandahar.
Kabul seems to have a normal day except at the airport where thousands still try to get out of the country. The Taliban let people pass to the airport but try to prevent a big rush and new chaos by holding off masses.
There were small protests today in Khost and Jalalabad where people took down the white Islamic Emirate flag and put up the black-red-green flag of Afghanistan. The Taliban soon removed the protesters and corrected the issue.
The flag will be something that needs, as many other things, to be negotiated. One could probably take the Shahada ('There is no god but god'), which the Taliban put onto their white flag when they founded the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, and add that, in white, onto the black-red-green national flag of Afghanistan. That would express the unity of the nation.
As another sign of reconciliation they today appointed Humayoon Humayoon, a former deputy speaker and a one time close ally of the fugitive former president Ashraf Ghani, as police chief of Kabul.
Meanwhile some are trying to form a resistance against the Taliban:
[V]ideos from the Panjshir Valley north of Kabul, a stronghold of the Northern Alliance militias that allied with the U.S. against the Taliban in 2001, appear to show potential opposition figures gathering there. It's in the only province that hasn't yet fallen to the Taliban.
Those figures include members of the deposed government — Vice President Amrullah Saleh, who asserted on Twitter that he is the country’s rightful president and Defense Minister Gen. Bismillah Mohammadi — as well as Ahmad Massoud, the son of the slain Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud. It's unclear if they intend to challenge to the Taliban, who seized most of the country in a matter of days last week.
The Afghan embassy to Tajikistan seems to support the move:
Cont. reading: Afghanistan – What Will Happen Next? A Provisional Government And A New Constitution.
Afghanistan – Taliban Press Conference Notes
Notes taken during the just ended Taliban news conference (video, Pashtun+English overvoice) today held by Taliban spokesman Zabihullah.
– Starts with a Koran recitation congratulating the victorious and another one on unity.
– We had legitimate right to liberate the country.
– Pardoning all who have fought against us.
– We want no external or internal enemies.
– Strong Islamic and inclusive government.
– No Talib casualties in Kabul.
– Assures security in Kabul.
– Assures embassies of security.
– We want no chaos or inconvenience in Kabul.
– Confirms Talib only went into Kabul for security on streets. Rioters, thieves wanted to abuse Taliban name to search houses etc.
– Assures security for all neighboring countries.
– Assures international community that no country will be harmed from Afghan soil.
– Rights for women within framework of Sharia. Education, working etc allowed.
– Will build infrastructure for Afghan economy.
– Asks international community to contribute.
– Assures media activity. Can continue to report. But nothing against Islamic values. Should be impartial. Shall critique Talib work so Talib can improve.
– Media shall not work against national values or unity of the nation.
Questions round:
Cont. reading: Afghanistan – Taliban Press Conference Notes
Afghanistan – Chaos Pictures Increase Fallout From U.S. Defeat
The Wall Street Journal describes the current situation at the Kabul airport as '‘Saigon on Steroids’
It indeed is as satellite pictures and a number of videos posted on Twitter show. Thousands of people rushed towards the airport. There was some panic at one of the entry gates and three persons there seem to have died in a stampede. Hundreds ran onto the runway. Other tried to climb fly bridges to get into planes.
On the military side of the airport the U.S. military fired shots to keep people from storming it. They later set up razor wire.
People ran along a departing C-17, a large military airplane. Some climbed onto the plane's landing gear doors.
bigger
The plane started, the landing gear retracted and the doors closed. At least three people fell to their death. Some others were alledgedly overrun by a plane and died.
Those sad little stories are an aside in the larger picture but it does reflect how little control the U.S. has over the airport. Why was there no planing for this?
These pictures will dominate the news cycle and upset further evacuation plans:
Ruffini @EenaRuffini – 13:30 UTC · Aug 16, 2021
NEW: Situation at the airport is “tenuous” and consideration is being given to pulling all Americans out and leaving the Afghans behind. That decision has not been made but it is on the table and will need to be addressed if Us can’t get control of the airport. (Martin/Ruffini)
That would actually be good as the current chaos is totally unnecessary. There have been very few revenge acts by the Taliban around the country. They have clear orders to not commit any and they behave very disciplined. There is no proof that anyone's security in Kabul, be they diplomats or Afghan civilians of any stripe, is in danger.
The Taliban spokesman confirms this:
Suhail Shaheen. محمد سهیل شاهین @suhailshaheen1 – 15:15 UTC · 16 Aug 2021
We assure all diplomats, embassies, consulates, and charitable workers, whether they are international or national that not only no problem will be created for them on the part of IEA but a secure environment will be provided to them, Inshallah.
Still – the U.S. is sending even more soldiers and soon there will be 7,000 of them. They will hardly fit into the airport.
The city of Kabul was quiet today. Taliban patrol the roads and guard important offices. Men walked or drove around and did their jobs but few women were seen. The Talibs greeted friendly:
Cont. reading: Afghanistan – Chaos Pictures Increase Fallout From U.S. Defeat
The MoA Week In Review – OT 2021-062
Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:
Aymenn J Al-Tamimi @ajaltamimi – 13:43 UTC · 15 Aug 2021
Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's Abu Mariya al-Qahtani congratulates the Taliban for its victory in Afghanistan, claiming it is a 'victory for the Muslims, victory for the Sunnis, victory for all the oppressed.'
—
Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – OT 2021-062
Afghanistan – Taliban Enter Kabul – Will Announce Interim Government
All cities are now in Taliban hands as are all border crossings. President Ashraf Ghani has resigned.
Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World Paperback – 6 Oct. 2009
English edition by Ashraf Ghani
bigger
A new interim government will be announced as soon as Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar arrives in Kabul. The U.S. is frantically evacuating its embassy.
—
Remarks by President Biden on the drawdown of U.S.forces in Afghanistan – July 6, 2021
Q Is a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan now inevitable?
THE PRESIDENT: No, it is not.
Q Why?
THE PRESIDENT: Because you — the Afghan troops have 300,000 well-equipped — as well-equipped as any army in the world — and an air force against something like 75,000 Taliban. It is not inevitable.
…
Q Mr. President, will you amplify that question, please? Will you amplify your answer, please — why you don’t trust the Taliban?
THE PRESIDENT: It’s a — it’s a silly question. Do I trust the Taliban? No. But I trust the capacity of the Afghan military, who is better trained, better equipped, and more re- — more competent in terms of conducting war.
…
Q Mr. President, some Vietnamese veterans see echoes of their experience in this withdrawal in Afghanistan. Do you see any parallels between this withdrawal and what happened in Vietnam, with some people feeling —
THE PRESIDENT: None whatsoever. Zero. What you had is — you had entire brigades breaking through the gates of our embassy — six, if I’m not mistaken.
The Taliban is not the south — the North Vietnamese army. They’re not — they’re not remotely comparable in terms of capability. There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of a embassy in the — of the United States from Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable.
It is not at all comparable. This is a totally different … type of helicopter.
Taliban enters Kabul, awaits ‘peaceful transfer’ of power – August 15, 2021
Cont. reading: Afghanistan – Taliban Enter Kabul – Will Announce Interim Government
Afghanistan – Taliban Make New Peace Offer And Other Bits
More from Afghanistan where history now happens at a speed seldom seen before.
The current situation:
At least three more province capitals are now under Taliban control. In total 21 out of 34 provinces are now in Taliban hands. Most of the others are contested.
- August 14 – Sharana (Paktika)
- August 14 – Asasabad (Kunar)
- August 14 – Gardez (Paktia)
I have modified the yesterday's Long War Journal map to reflect the confirmed changes in the southeast and east.
August 13
biggerAugust 14
bigger
The Afghan Analyst Network just published a detailed report about the development in Paktia over the last years. It explains the Taliban's operational course of action:
The Domino Effect in Paktia and the Fall of Zurmat: A case study of the Taleban surrounding Afghan cities
A thread by Bilal Sarawary, who hails from Kunar, documents the recent development there.
—
Taliban peace offer:
Cont. reading: Afghanistan – Taliban Make New Peace Offer And Other Bits
|
