Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 02, 2021

Why China Needs More Nukes

China is adding more intercontinental nuclear missiles (ICBM) to the meager 200+ nuclear weapons it currently deploys:

China has begun construction of what independent experts say are more than 100 new silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles in a desert near the northwestern city of Yumen, a building spree that could signal a major expansion of Beijing’s nuclear capabilities.
...
The acquisition of more than 100 new missile silos, if completed, would represent a historic shift for China, a country that is believed to possess a relatively modest stockpile of 250 to 350 nuclear weapons. The actual number of new missiles intended for those silos is unknown but could be much smaller. China has deployed decoy silos in the past.

bigger

The minimum distance between the silos in the picture is about two 2 miles.

In the 1970s the U.S. developed an idea called the ICBM shell game and made a helpful video to explain that concept. To protect missiles from a decapitating first strike a lot of the silos would be kept empty and a few missiles would be shuffled between them. To attack that new 119 holes missile field in China the U.S. would have to fire at least 119 nuclear war heads at them to be sure that no missile is left to fire back at it. If China would add some missile defense to the field the U.S. would have to fire about three times as many war heads to be sure that every silo gets destroyed. All this for probably just a handful of weapons. That number game adds up to soon become very expensive.

[Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on China’s nuclear arsenal and part of a team that analyzed the suspicious sites,] said the silos are probably intended for a Chinese ICBM known as the DF-41, which can carry multiple warheads and reach targets as far away as 9,300 miles, potentially putting the U.S. mainland within its reach. Major excavation work on the sites began early this year, although preparations were probably underway for months, Lewis said.

The editors of the Chinese Global Times take issue with the Lewis' statement on the DF-41 and show that they do not know the technical side of the strategic nuclear weapon field. It's editor in chief Hu Xijin writes:

It's unknown if the construction sites mentioned by the Washington Post are really silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles. But I must say that Lewis is an amateur. In reality, DF-41 is solid-fueled road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile and one of its biggest advantages is its mobility and vitality. There is no point to put it inside a silo. Lewis may not understand the basic features of DF-41 before shooting off his mouth at the media.

That is so wrong that it hurts.

For one Dr. Jeffrey Lewis is THE Arms Control Wonk and director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, part of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. He has likely forgotten more about missiles than Hu Xijin will ever know.

The difference between solid fueled and liquid fueled missiles is the reaction time. The U.S. has some 450 silo based ICBMs. Those missiles were named 'Minuteman' because they are solid fueled and can therefore be fired at a minutes notice. Liquid fueled missiles take time to prepare as the fuel is filled up only shortly before a launch. They are quite dangerous for their crews as the liquid fuels tend to be quite corrosive and explosive. That does not matter much for space operations but is very inconvenient for any military application.

A second strike force must be ready to launch the moment an incoming hostile first strike is detected. There might otherwise be no one left to launch it.

Lewis sees sound reasons for China to expand its arsenal:

“We believe China is expanding its nuclear forces in part to maintain a deterrent that can survive a U.S. first strike in sufficient numbers to defeat U.S. missile defenses.”

A Global Times editorial agrees with that reasoning:

The US wants China to stick to the line based around minimal deterrence. It's true that China has said it keeps its nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required for national security. But the minimum level would change as China's security situation changes. China has been defined as the top strategic competitor by the US and the US military pressure on China has continued to increase. Therefore, China must quicken the increase of its nuclear deterrence to curb the US strategic impulse. We must build credible nuclear second-strike capability, which needs to be guaranteed by enough nuclear warheads.

It then adds a remark that points to potential real life scenario:

China's security situation is changing rapidly. The US has the strategic ambition to subdue China. Once a military confrontation between China and the US over the Taiwan question breaks out, if China has enough nuclear capacity to deter the US, that will serve as the foundation of China's national will. We are facing different environments and risks from the past. The calculation methods for the minimum level must also be different. Regardless of what the US says, China must be sober and firm about what it should do.

If the U.S. sends ships to prevent China from reintegrating Taiwan it might try to stop China from attacking them by threatening a nuclear attack. If China has a credible second strike capability that U.S. threat would be empty. No U.S. president will risk New York over Taipei City.

The construction of the new missile silo field was launched only at the beginning of this year and has been continued at a fast pace. China seems to feel that there is no time to lose before the U.S. takes the next steps to push for Taiwan's independence. That would immediately become a military problem. The new missile field may help to alter U.S. plans.

Posted by b on July 2, 2021 at 17:55 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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@ Peter AU1 | Jul 4 2021 2:38 utc | 199 and Bemildred | Jul 4 2021 2:58 utc | 201 about computer capabilities.

If it isn't programmed, it doesn't happen and that includes the parameters within which it can look like it is "thinking" real fast.

I started bit diddling in the early 1970's with Weyerhaeuser embedding an application to process all their dimensional lumber orders received via teletype from around the world in an application embedded in an main frame OS of the day......... there is still no magic here in computerland and it is a bound universe by definition......just like the junk economic models that throw cover myth for Hand, The Invisible.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 4 2021 3:15 utc | 201

Posted by: psychohistorian | Jul 4 2021 3:15 utc | 202

Yeah, I remember Weyerhauser. Big back then. And yeah, that is exactly what I am getting at. There is no magic there. I spent twenty years on it, wargames amd simulations. I'm not saying is not good stuff, I still like to hack when I feel sharp. But it has problems and limits and it cannot do all kinds of stuff that any rat or bird can. An armored drone still cannot move very fast, however smart.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 4 2021 3:25 utc | 202

@ c1ue #125

I disagree completely with your assessment. Gorbachev came into power precisely because of the perception that the Soviet economic model was failing - and it was failing due to a long period of oil price suppression by the Saudis in collusion with the US.

The foregoing has been often cited as the cause of the Soviet Union breakup along with SDI forcing the SU into a ruinously expensive arms race, a dissatisfied population, etc. None of these theories survive scrutiny but lets focus on the low oil price theory.

The only way low oil prices can significantly harm a closed and largely self-sufficient economy is if hard currency is needed to purchase imports. The SU maintained a positive trade balance throughout the 1980's although a foreign debt reached about $30 billion in 1981 and 1986 - relatively small for an economy the size of the SU. See this article for goof background informaton:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_trade_of_the_Soviet_Union

Certainly, low oil prices did not favor the SU but it was not a major factor in the collapse of the SU. The collapse was driven from the top. As evidenced by the large support by the Soviet population to maintain the SU in a plebiscite, the general population was fine with the status quo.

The folks not satisfied were high level officials earning wages hardly better than the average worker while their western counterparts were earning hundreds to thousands of times more plus had access to the vast markets of human decadence (think Jeffery Epstein). It was Gorbachev's loosening of controls and a silly expectation that the historical enemies of the SU and Russia will reverse centuries of antipathy. What an idiot (or western agent)!

Regarding China, I am optimistic that they will continue their economic and cultural success. They are an old civilization with accumulated wisdom providing a resiliency beyond what any ideology can provide. The same now applies to Russia as it rediscovers and cherishes its past.


Posted by: Patient Observer | Jul 4 2021 3:30 utc | 203

Bemildred
I'm thinking of advances in the last hundred years rather than trying say any of those things are AI. The speed at which science and tech advance is constantly increasing.

psychohistorian
Closed cycle rocket engines were also impossible to build, that is until Americans found some old ones stored in a warehouse in Russia. At that point they became just difficult to build which is why US military still buys them off Russia.

"there is still no magic here in computerland and it is a bound universe by definition" I will give that some thought.
A few here have said that Putin is misleading in talking about the future of AI, but I have always taken it as aimed at the general Russian people, the civilian sphere. Civilian tech going into the military sphere and vise versa does seem the way to go.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 4 2021 3:38 utc | 204

Peter AU1 @199
Yes and they have started to print houses very cheaply. That is certainly an excellent advancement for humankind. The cost of the doors and windows are more expensive that the house. Hell, print them as well.

Newsweek has some pictures of what appears to be silo construction as well...
Satellite Images Reveal China's New Missile Silos

It looks very similar to what silo construction would look like in a google images search. It cannot be hidden. Soon there will be images of them putting the missiles to bed.

Posted by: circumspect | Jul 4 2021 3:45 utc | 205

I smelled a rat when Abe abruptly went out on 'health' reason.

Now I know why.

NOt even Shinso 731 abe was ready to broach China's red line so he's removed.

Jp is now fully onboard the new eight nations alliance.

Japan's deputy defense minister warned at an event aired on Monday of a growing threat posed by Chinese and Russian collaboration and said it was necessary to "wake up" to Beijing's pressure on Taiwan and protect the island "as a democratic country.
[2]

The barbarians are at the gate.... again.

[1]
https://cdn3.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/980x551/public/2013/05/16/abe_unit_731_1.jpg?itok=HNh9QNc9

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2971580


[2]
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-minister-says-necessary-wake-up-protect-taiwan-2021-06-28/

China certainly needs more nukes,
lots of it.

Posted by: denk | Jul 4 2021 3:53 utc | 206

China should've bought this. Cheap missile silo, ideal for the handyman. Give it a coat of paint, plonk a missile in and its good to go. https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/article/What-a-Blast-Former-Titan-Nuclear-Missile-Silo-14854881.php

Well its what turned up when I checked google images.....

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 4 2021 4:02 utc | 207

Patient Observer @ 204
Regarding China, I am optimistic that they will continue their economic and cultural success. They are an old civilization with accumulated wisdom providing a resiliency beyond what any ideology can provide. The same now applies to Russia as it rediscovers and cherishes its past.

Juxtaposed to the US which is young, a mixture of cultures, and being torn apart by some sort of "race theory" coupled with a Right vs. Left ideology promoted by all the major power brokers in its society.

All in full view of the world. Creating weakness and attempting to project global power at the same time. I grow apprehensive watching this cultural wasteland tear itself apart.

Posted by: circumspect | Jul 4 2021 4:02 utc | 208

Peter AU1 @ 208
We had a bunch of those sites spread out across my region that were active at the height of the cold war. China was fielding a barefoot human wave assaults across Korea in the snow at that time. My how things have changed.

Posted by: circumspect | Jul 4 2021 4:05 utc | 209

Here is one of the most important pieces written about this subject and it puts into context the giant screw up Donald Trump made when he tore up the INF treaty. Really worth the reading time for those who want to understand this issue better:

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2019/02/rip-inf-treaty-russias-victory-americas.html

Posted by: Don Harder | Jul 4 2021 5:56 utc | 210

What IF the US gave Taiwan (already?) the same aid that PR China gave Pakistan since the 1970s?

1998: The Strategic Implications of China's Nuclear Aid to Pakistan


2020: The China-Pakistan Nuclear Nexus: How Can India Respond?

Posted by: Antonym | Jul 4 2021 7:54 utc | 211

I tried to post, but just "test" work so far
===
2021: ICBM not anymore relevant.
"Precisely delivered" was a joke in the 60's
https://youtu.be/K9e4rDqPtmg

But who is still laughing after Al Assad Iranian Strike ?

Posted by: Rêver | Jul 4 2021 8:06 utc | 212

Looking better this morning
===
Am I full Windiot?
I was surprised by relevance of the post by
by: Dr. George W Oprisko | Jul 3 2021 4:15 utc | 68. Thank you George.
I read all the thread, but all post around were about rocket & power.
Not Memory Loss | Jul 3 2021 9:41 utc | 88
& Peter AU1 | Jul 3 2021 10:19 utc | 90, Dan of Steel, and now, thanks Anomi, some more...

I just enlarged the picture linked by b., and read on the upper right side something in white letters


YUMEN
YUMEN GANSU WINDFARM

I just googled it, really basically. First link is to  Wikipedia

Posted by: Rêver | Jul 4 2021 8:09 utc | 213

YUMEN YUMEN GANSU WINDFARM

I just googled it, really basically. First link is to  Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gansu_Wind_Farm?wprov=sfla1


The Gansu Wind Farm Project is located in desert areas near the city of Jiuquan in two localities of Guazhou County and also near Yumen City, in the northwest province of Gansu, which has an abundance of wind. The complex is operating at below 40% utilization of the current 8 GW with a planned capacity of 20 GW.
The project is one of six national wind power megaprojects approved by the Chinese government. It is expected to grow to 20,000 megawatts by 2020, at an estimated cost of 120 billion Chinese yuan ($17.5 billion). The project is being built by more than 20 developers in two localities in Guazhou County and also near Yumen City.

I really big project !

So,
Anonomi | Jul 3 2021 17:33 utc | 141 is probably right. Need a lot of new system to produce 20000W

Posted by: Rêver | Jul 4 2021 8:11 utc | 214

So,
Anonomi | Jul 3 2021 17:33 utc | 141 is probably right. Need a lot of new system to produce 20000 Mw!
Look at one of this Solar Tower in Morocco, Ouarzazate, Centrale Solaire Thermodynamique NooR.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/aEdfDcsZf9sxB9Gw7
North of "Solar Panels" is ONE tower surrounded by thousands of mirrors. Just 500m radius.

So, WTF?

Is that so simple? A Fake for Dummies? Or a trolling project in order to fill GP, Gz, MoA and others searching after bad bones? Windmilling our souls?


Into this world we're thrown
Like a dog without a bone
An actor out on loan

Posted by: Rêver | Jul 4 2021 8:12 utc | 215

Look at one of this Solar Tower in Morocco, Ouarzazate, Centrale Solaire Thermodynamique NooR.
[link to Google earth don't work]
North of "Solar Panels" is ONE tower surrounded by thousands of mirrors. Just 500m radius.
NooR II is 200Mw.
NoorIII is 150Mw, so 120 towers is 18000Mw
A tower system is 6 km2.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complexe_solaire_Noor_Ouarzazate?wprov=sfla1

Posted by: Rêver | Jul 4 2021 8:26 utc | 216

Have a look 200 km to the west (40°03'43.6"N 94°25'29.5"E)
https://goo.gl/maps/b8gLcAF8fxFmoZ5z9

Posted by: Linus | Jul 4 2021 8:28 utc | 217

End of my sliced post
===
And in memory of Jim last recording
===
So, WTF?

Is that so simple? A Fake for Dummies? Or a trolling project in order to fill GP, Gz, MoA and others searching after bad bones? Windmilling our souls?


Into this world we're thrown
Like a dog without a bone
An actor out on loan

Posted by: Rêver | Jul 4 2021 8:29 utc | 218

Sorry! Correct cordinates is this: 40.06195175715366, 94.42478736879899

Posted by: Linus | Jul 4 2021 8:45 utc | 219

Looking up solar power at Yumen, it looks like china is setting it up as a major solar electricity generating area.

http://www.cspfocus.cn/en/market/detail_195.htm
China Energy Administration initiated the construction of GW-grade CSP park together with the 1st phase of 20 pilot CSP projects. Responding to the pilot program, Yumen, a traditional industrial city in Gansu Province, Northwest China, has been planning its CSP Pilot Park in Huahai District. With investment of RMB 178.9 billion, totally 5.6GW CSP projects covering area of 570km² are expected to be allocated by the year of 2030. The plan has been officially reviewed by government, and will be completed in three phases respectively by 2020, 2025 and 2030.

https://helioscsp.com/china-yumen-launch-a-new-2
"China Yumen launch a new 2200 MW PV-Concentrated Solar Power project
Yumen government signed the Agreement to develop a new integrated power project including 2000MW PV and 200MW Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants in the middle of March this year, with the partners East China Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd, ENERGY CHINA and Jiangsu XinChen CSP Co., Ltd. (XinChen CSP, also known as BCP Solar Technology)."


This looks to a 100MW solar molten salt unint. According to the video it covers an area of 800 hectares. If that is the circular area then the circle diameter would be 3.2 km across.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgxkJU1WY1M

This one I don't think is part of the Yumen field but it shows a molten salt tower and power station under construction.
http://www.cspfocus.cn/en/market/detail_31

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 4 2021 9:48 utc | 220

China will not invade Taiwan.

You will wake up one day to an announcement from Taiwan that it has successfully integrated mainland China to itself.

There will also be a parallel announcement from Beijing that the CCP as the vanguard Party has successfully integrated Taiwan into the real China.

Posted by: jiri | Jul 4 2021 10:43 utc | 221

All this obligatory guess work is a product of 1984 style CPC "freedom" of information & travel.

Just like the Wuhan riddle: how to believe that the only Chinese city with a BSL-4 lab sold Yunnan bats (1400 km away) in its sea food wet market? Why were these bats not sold in Kunming, Guizhou, Chongqing or Hunan etc. all big wealthy cities half way?

US Fausti is another one speaking from both ends of his mouth, smilingly. Great GOF actor. He is 80 so doesn't give a rat's ass for us remaining. Present US is at about 1974.

Posted by: Antonym | Jul 4 2021 10:44 utc | 222

All this obligatory guess work is a product of 1984 style CPC "freedom" of information & travel.

---

Posted by: Antonym | Jul 4 2021 10:44 utc | 226

Well really, it is not at all obligatory, I have managed to avoid it mostly. Obsessing about who is at fault is a good way to make sure you have a long pandemic. ss we can now see. But dipshits like Modi and Trump do not care, or are too dumb to understand.

I could not agree more with you about Fauci though, he and Rumsfeld are cut from the same cloth.

Posted by: Bemildred | Jul 4 2021 11:50 utc | 223

Here some scientists recently agreeing (with D. Trump!)that the virus can well be man-made: Should we discount the laboratory origin of COVID-19? Now it is allowed to utter this heretic thought.

Real Science doesn't do con-census.

Posted by: Antonym | Jul 4 2021 12:30 utc | 224

@Linus #223

Thanks. This very large CSP plant to the west of Dunhuang has a variable radius ranging from 1.6 km in the north to 1 km in the south and, according to my measurements, an area of 6 km² (the New China TV video about it linked to by Peter AU1 in comment #224 says it covers 8 km²). So it is possible for a CSP plant to be this large.

However, this doesn’t explain the presence of 70-meter-long rectangular puffy-looking gray tents on what is alleged to be missile silo construction sites in Yumen. The exact same 70-meter-long rectangular puffy-looking gray tents were present at the Jilantai PLA Rocket Force training site, covering the construction of what was later revealed to be missile silos, see China’s Expanding Missile Training Area: More Silos, Tunnels, and Support Facilities (Federation of American Scientists, Hans Kristensen, February 24, 2021). The photo of Yumen CSP plant construction site from the Bloomberg article shows no such tents (not that they would be needed anyway).

Summary: yes, there are CSP plants under construction in Yunmen, yes, large CSP plants that have a radius approaching 2 miles do exist in China, however, the construction sites under discussion are most likely missile silos.

Posted by: S | Jul 4 2021 13:23 utc | 225

*Yumen, not Yunmen

Posted by: S | Jul 4 2021 13:26 utc | 226

@229 S
This is typical petitio principii. These "puffy gray tents" are in fact makeshift construction halls you can see at a lot of sites in and outside China when work needs to be protected from adverse weather and temperatures, just metal or carbon joist skeleton covered by canvas. I have been inside such halls, and they did not contain missile silos :) otherwise one would certainly not let me in.

The site Wapo "documents" is roughly in the second line of the upper array of the photoshopped circles given the position plotted. It may be anything, prolly indeed either a windfarm, or a thermal solar plant. The Bloomberg article shows such a site largely complete, so the "tents" will certainly be gone. For a thermal solar plant under construction, it would of course be sensible to have a site to assemble the mirrors and their mechanics, protected from the elements. And the standard makeshift hall may certainly be used by the PLA too.

Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 4 2021 13:38 utc | 227

@Antonym | Jul 4 2021 12:30 utc | 226

Here some scientists recently agreeing (with D. Trump!)that the virus can well be man-made: Should we discount the laboratory origin of COVID-19? Now it is allowed to utter this heretic thought.

Did you miss my earlier post in this thread?

There I wrote:

before the pandemic was a pandemic, already 4.75 million Americans had been exposed to the novel coronavirus.

based on the scienctific facts laid out in https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/72/12/e1004/6012472

Maybe you should EVALI-uate that before compulsively pointing at Chyynna (as you always (yawn!) do here.

Posted by: Lurk | Jul 4 2021 14:25 utc | 228

@Antonym | Jul 4 2021 7:54 utc | 213

What IF the US gave Taiwan (already?) the same aid that PR China gave Pakistan since the 1970s?

You're completely wrong again. It wasn't China that gave Pakistan nuclear weapons, it was the USA, through their guy Abdul Qadeer Khan, with The Netherlands acting as a cutout.

As the Dutch are wont to say: "en daar is geen woord chinees bij!".

Posted by: Lurk | Jul 4 2021 14:33 utc | 229

I love it. The MOA brain-trust strikes again!

After over 200 Huffing-puffing nuke-war/solid-vs-liquid-fuelled "we're probably all gonna die!" Pseudo-interlechtual wankery comments, the morons finally decided to pay attention to the text on the right hand side of the photo in question and the concensus nowfinally is that

    "panic over! It's most likely just a fuckin electricity generation site!"

Well done MOA commentariat!

Never change, you fuckin retards.

Posted by: Triden | Jul 4 2021 14:47 utc | 230

That "Planet" photo is quite patently photoshopped. End of story. No need for 230 comments.

Posted by: BM | Jul 4 2021 14:48 utc | 231

Re: Taiwan getting nukes

The only way this could happen is if the mainland is taken by surprise. The only possible way that the mainland could be taken by surprise is if the USA supplies the nukes as a complete turn-key package.

I would not put it past the senile and dying old empire to try something stupid like that, and it would explain why the resident imperial spokespersons are trying to see if that lead balloon can fly. The question, of course, is not would the decaying empire try to sneak nukes into Taiwan in an effort to stay relevant, as the answer is obviously "Yes", but can they do it? Can the US set Taiwan up with nukes in such a way that it takes the mainland by surprise? That is far beyond highly doubtful. The Chinese are expecting attacks, and particularly since the 2019 bio attacks they are bracing themselves for the next level of escalation. They are gaming out the empire's possible next moves, and are doubtless several moves ahead of the Empire of Dementia. Trying to sneak nukes into Taiwan is too obvious a move and the Chinese have counters to it planned out down to the small details.

Short answer is that regardless of the empire's intentions Taiwan isn't getting nukes any more than they are going to pull up anchor and sail their little island across the Pacific to be next to the Hollywood they adore so much.

Posted by: William Gruff | Jul 4 2021 16:45 utc | 232

William Gruff @Jul4 16:45 @234: Re: Taiwan getting nukes

I believe that USA supplying nukes is a red-line for China just as much as Taiwan declaring independence.

But a "home-grown" capability side-steps these Chinese red-lines.

I agree that it would be difficult to hide such an effort from Chinese intelligence. But it's a logical course of action.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jul 4 2021 17:34 utc | 233

Here is a block of 5 molten salt solar power units in various stages of construction just to the east of Yumen.
They range from a completed unit to just excavation for tower. These google map sat pics are usually a few years old.
https://www.google.com.au/maps/@40.3319391,97.270637,1034m/data=!3m1!1e3

To the north is another bare plain that runs back to the west. A lot of that is covered by a massive wind farm
https://www.google.com.au/maps/@40.6949561,95.7670348,41472m/data=!3m1!1e3

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 4 2021 18:58 utc | 234

The whole idea of nukes for Taiwan is outright idiotic and reveals utter ignorance of China and Taiwan. Nukes are useful for those who are willing to use them under certain conditions. Israel for example will certainly not hesitate to grill some million, even some ten million Arabs in case eretz being in danger to be overrun. The military historian and strategist van Creveld even suggested to nuke west European capitals when they were not preventing that (ok he revoked this words from an interview with Elsevier, but that was more kind of diplomatic dementi). Also, NK will be ready and determined to attack the US with her nukes, they have still a reckoning open of 4+ million Koreans slain by the US and their vassals in the last war.

In Taiwan, at least one third of the electorate is behind the one China policy, and even the DPP widely moderated radical separatism claims. Moreover, several million Taiwan Chinese are working and mostly permanently living on the mainland, at least one million is married with a mainland Chinese. About two third of the Taiwan Chinese have relatives in the PRC, and family ties, even with more distant kin, count a lot in Asia. Nuking the PRC would be grilling their own folk. Everyone proposing such threat would face fierce opposition if not immediate toppling.

Posted by: aquadraht | Jul 4 2021 19:08 utc | 235

I am no fan of Donald trump. Am no fan of any president since at least JFK, either. However one of Trump's impetuous decisions may have saved all life on earth. On Dec. 20, 2019 he enabled the creation of the U.S. Space Force. Up till then, the Air Force was in charge of combat in outer space, but they were focused on getting new fighter jets, and were seriously neglecting space weaponry.

This is mostly stuff I've read on the Internet, but I'm pretty sure it's correct.

I think the weaponization of space could end up saving the earth, simply by making the Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) strategy viable. I doubt that any anti-ballistic missile system could stop a hypersonic 'glide vehicle' coming directly down from the darkness of space. Laser beams could theoretically work far better in space since there is virtually no atmosphere. However stealth coatings on orbiting weapons would not be degraded by an atmosphere, and space is a very big place.

My design might have the weapons encased in a protective 'jacket' of fused silica or alumina, and each weapon would also be accompanied by 100 decoys. The decoys, if detected at all, might be distinguished by a tiny loss of speed due to their vastly lesser mass. So I would have tiny 'micro rockets' cause all the satellites to move at slightly varying speeds. Maybe use the alpha particles from tiny radium 266 to power the 'micro rockets', with minute release of liquid nitrogen to cool the small thermal emissions. Something like that...

I've read that submarine launched missiles lack the accuracy of missiles in silos, so perhaps the missiles that travel about on transporters may lack some accuracy. Accuracy is absolutely crucial. I believe warheads launched from space might be the most accurate of all.

Mark Twain said that man has descended from the higher animals. No doubts there.

Posted by: blues | Jul 4 2021 19:08 utc | 236

Yumen is also home to China's oldest oilfield.

This photo included in the propaganda I wondered about when I first= saw it. It looks to be drilling mud coming out of the shelter and running down the erosion gutters. It is the small photo bottom right.
https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/210702000915-03-china-missile-silos-exlarge-169.jpg


China has been remapping and re-drilling the old oilfield to boost recovery.
https://www.cnpc.com.cn/en/operatediol/201405/92720dc1a8724d7990b9f93dbdb4631a.shtml
In order to increase the ultimate oil recovery, through fine reservoir description and better understanding of residual oil distribution, CNPC puts this mature oilfield into redevelopment. Well patterns were rearranged in blocks including Laojunmian, Yaerxia and Baiyanghe to build new development patterns with vertical injectors and horizontal producers. Meanwhile, horizontal, directional, cluster and underbalanced wells were drilled to achieve maximum output and recovery.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 4 2021 20:15 utc | 237

@aquadraht #229

If it was just one tent, you’d be right, it could house anything. But it’s not just one tent. It’s a regular triangular grid of tents. Here’s a video of an Australian CSP plant under construction. No 70-meter-long tents to be seen anywhere. In comment #236 Peter AU1 links to a satellite image of Yumen CSP towers at different stages of construction. Again, no 70-meter-long tents to be seen anywhere. Clearly, 70-meter-long tents are not used in construction of CSP towers. Then why are they there? To protect the silos under construction from rain and dust until the lids are installed.

Posted by: S | Jul 4 2021 20:29 utc | 238

S, check what looks to be well drilling mud coming out of that shelter and the article on remapping and re-drilling the oilfields. That sort of drilling is not required for either silos or solar/wind installation. Geo-thermal? Nothing shows up, so if that is drilling mud, likely to be part of the new oil drilling program which includes horizontal drilling.

The last link in my post @239.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 4 2021 21:16 utc | 239

S | Jul 4 2021 0:12 utc | 188

There are 4 different projects/designs being developed in Yumen. The photo you linked to is a smaller one.

Here's photo of 100MW (about 2 miles diam) - https://helioscsp.com/china-csp-city-yumen-to-allocate-5-6-gw-concentrated-solar-power-park-by-2030/
"China CSP City Yumen to allocate 5.6 GW Concentrated Solar Power Park by 2030"
5.6GW would require 56 sites approximately 2 miles in diameter. These designs can produce power for 24 hrs unlike wind and solar cells.

Posted by: Anonomi | Jul 4 2021 21:55 utc | 240

Rêver | Jul 4 2021 8:12 utc | 217

The one you are describing is 2 MILES IN DIAMETER. Check it out on goggle maps.
https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/ouarzazate-solar-power-station

Posted by: Anonomi | Jul 4 2021 22:21 utc | 241

I would not put it past the senile and dying old empire to try something stupid like that wrote William Gruff | Jul 4 2021 16:45 utc | 234.

Well Mao and Zhou Enlai did that stupid thing giving Pakistan one nuclear up. Much later their designs were traded by Pakistan to North Korea for long range missiles. Nixon was stupid enough too, with a few more to follow.

aquadraht | Jul 4 2021 19:08 utc | 237 Never heard of MAD? The idea is that neither side uses nukes (or conventional attacks) out of fear of being counter nuked. Then there is also the fall out blowing around the region problem.
Indians and Pakistanis differ very little in DNA too by the way, Like North and South Korean or West and East Germans.

Posted by: Antonym | Jul 5 2021 3:40 utc | 242

@Antonym | Jul 5 2021 3:40 utc | 244

After I clearly refuted your stupid and unsourced claims a few posts up, you blandly persist in repeating the same silly bullshit nevertheless.

That makes you a shameless bald-faced liar. Noted.

Posted by: Lurk | Jul 5 2021 12:12 utc | 243

One might expect China's modest 250 - 350 ready-to-launch Nuclear ICBMs to be sufficient to persuade an attacker that it was a big mistake to Nuke China. After all, Nuking is quite different from being Nuked, one imagines.

The biggest problem with contemplating a Nuclear First Strike is that there's no way of knowing where, or against which target, the victim will retaliate.

There are plenty of potential/'logical' targets in every country.

Capital City?
Command & Control?
Post-Armageddon Hideouts?
Satellites?
Civilian Infrastructure (water, food, electricity, transport hubs)?
Military HQs?
Government HQs?
Media HQs?

The more I think about the Unknown unknowns the more convinced I become that there's nobody in AmeriKKKa crazy enough to launch a Nuclear First Strike against a Nuclear-armed Adversary. And even if there is, the sane people will stop him/her/it.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 6 2021 16:17 utc | 244

Photos on twitter show that these ARE windmills. As alway, while westerners spend hours guessing whats going on China, all they had to do was ask a Chinese and they would get a simple answer.


https://twitter.com/shen_shiwei/status/1412645072722554887?s=19

I hope b issues a retraction of the story soon. For the sake of his own reputation.

Posted by: ukdefector | Jul 7 2021 15:27 utc | 245

@ukdefector

The wind farm is located in the east of the geographic feature that looks like a “hand fan”. We’re discussing the construction sites in the west and to the west of it.

The distance between wind turbines in the wind farm is 400 m vertically and 770 m diagonally; the distance between what are alleged to be missile silos under construction is about 2 miles (3,219 m). It doesn’t really make sense to place wind turbines 3 km apart.

Posted by: S | Jul 7 2021 16:00 utc | 246

On the notion that the *silos* are spaced two km apart:

The space between the circles is barely wider than the diameter of each circle. I don't know anything about nuclear silos, but I refuse to believe that a missile silo is nearly 2km in diameter. The claim might then be that they are construction sites and the construction site for a missile silo requires 2 km. I doubt anyone builds 119 silos simultaneously, but rather one or a few at a time.

The desert areas of western China are more vast than you can imagine. Why therefore would the military build super sensitive infrastructure next door to a civilian wind farm project.

Final point. I find the crispness of the 2km silo circles in the image suspiciously crisp compared to every other detail of the relatively low rez image.

Posted by: ukdefector | Jul 7 2021 17:00 utc | 247

...
"I hope b WaPo issues a retraction of the story soon. For the sake of his own WaPo's reputation."
Posted by: ukdefector | Jul 7 2021 15:27 utc | 247

Did you leave your sense of humour in the UK when you defected?
b is pissing on the gullible authors of a (cited and linked) WaPo article and their careless 'experts' by pretending to take their ignorant claptrap seriously.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 7 2021 17:44 utc | 248

@gordog , 175 I agree, in Iraq the US had control over airspace, in China they haven't.
I can try to imagine partial solutions (combine geostationary satellite tracking of pixel size blobs with regular low orbit 'confirmation' of those blobs , weak mobility and a long time to launch from the moment you stop driving) but they don' get there.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Jul 7 2021 21:45 utc | 249

@ukdefector #249:

The space between the circles is barely wider than the diameter of each circle. I don't know anything about nuclear silos, but I refuse to believe that a missile silo is nearly 2km in diameter.

It seems that you are unfamiliar with the concept of map markers. Map markers are superimposed on a map to show the locations of certain features or structures, not their dimensions. Actual satellite images of what are alleged to be missile silos under construction can be seen in the Washington Post article (the first link in b’s post).

The desert areas of western China are more vast than you can imagine. Why therefore would the military build super sensitive infrastructure next door to a civilian wind farm project.

Fair point. I don’t know. Maybe they want the missile crews and their families to live in an actual city, not in some remote location.

Posted by: S | Jul 8 2021 13:05 utc | 250

I don't know what to make of this article suggesting that Japan would get involved militarily if China attempts to reuinite Taiwain with the mainland using force. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/07/02/its-getting-more-and-more-likely-japanese-troops-would-fight-for-taiwan/?sh=6bd92c073a4c

Posted by: jv | Jul 11 2021 2:13 utc | 251

Atheist Mongols of China government of course want more nukes so they can help destroy human beings. Perhaps they think USA will do nothing? Who else has nukes? USA, UK, France, Russia, India, Pakistan, Zionists. Maybe soon Persia. Mongols tried in the past to exterminate everyone including Muslims but they were defeated in Palestine by Muslim army from Egyptine and by Christian armies in Europe. Mongol unbelievers are losers in this world and in the next. But they have time to repent while they live and Allah subhanna wa ta'ala will forgive those who repent.

Posted by: Gul | Jul 19 2021 17:33 utc | 252

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