Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 09, 2021

Why The U.S. Might Want War In Ukraine

Yesterday CNN said that the US is considering sending warships to the Black Sea amid Russia-Ukraine tensions. That the U.S. is 'considering' this is however disinformation:

The United States has notified Turkey that it intends to deploy two warships to the Black Sea amid rising tensions with Russia, Turkish Foreign Ministry sources said on Friday.

Washington made the notification just over two weeks ago, as required under the Montreux Convention on passage through the Straits.

The warships will stay in the Black Sea until 5 May.

"One US warship will arrive on 14 April, and another on 15 April to the Black Sea. And they will leave on 4 May and 5 May, respectively," a source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.

The tensions in the Ukraine have built up after the Ukraine transferred heavy forces to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk, raised Nazi flags and made a lot of noise about reconquering the renegade provinces as well as Crimea.


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Russia has also started some movement of troops and equipment towards its western border. For now these units are just training and not in a position to attack:

Although the US does not see the amassing of Russian forces as posturing for an offensive action, the official told CNN that "if something changes we will be ready to respond." Their current assessment is that the Russians are conducting training and exercises and intelligence has not indicated military orders for further action, the official said, but noted that they are well-aware that could change at any time.

A few weeks ago we explained why the Ukrainian president Zelinsky is under pressure to start a war. The country is bankrupt and in a constitutional crisis. On top of that:

Polling numbers for Zelensky have sharply declined. Right wing city councils call on Zelensky to outlaw the largest opposition party. Meanwhile the pandemic puts a record number of people into hospitals while a meager vaccination campaign is failing.

A war against the eastern separatist could be a Hail Mary attempt by Zelensky to regain some national and international support.

But nothing will happen on the frontline without the consent or even encouragement from Washington DC. The Biden administration is filled with the same delusional people who managed the 2014 coup in Kiev. They may believe that the NATO training the Ukrainian army received and the weapons the U.S. delivered are sufficient to defeat the separatist. But the state of the Ukrainian military is worse than one might think and the separatist will have Russia's full backing. There is no question who would win in such a fight.

Russia has since made its position clear:

Russia will be forced to protect the residents of Donbass if Ukraine launches full-scale hostilities against the region. That’s according to Dmitry Kozak, President Vladimir Putin’s deputy chief of staff, who is himself Ukrainian.

Russia is making such noise to deter Zelensky from any stupid moves. It is however not clear if this will deter Washington DC from ordering Zelensky to attack. The Ukrainian president recently was in Qatar to ask for money. He will soon (again) be in Istanbul to request more drones and likely also 'Syrian rebels' to be used as cannon fodder in the opening of a war.

The weather is not yet optimal to launch an attack. The grounds are still soggy and would hinder heavy weapon movements. The chance for war will increase towards the beginning of May.

But all depends on Washington. Will the Biden administration push Zelensky towards a war that would certainly end with the Ukraine's defeat and dissolution? Why would it do so?

Andrei Martyanov suggests a U.S. geo-strategic motive behind this:

[T]o convince those 447 million EU’s residents that they need America’s protection and weapons, America needs Russia to get into the war in Ukraine and if it will end up with utter destruction, and it will if Russia really decides so, of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and, likely, Ukrainian statehood, so be it.

Americans never really cared how many aborigines die, as long as it works for the US bottom line. Or, if one may, a condition of American condition, which is deteriorating steadily because not only the United States increasingly has very little of substance, that is of high value added, to sell to the world, but forming economic and military monster of Eurasia removes the United States from its, grossly exaggerated to start with, self-proclaimed status of global hegemon to the status of, at best, one of the few big shots on the planet.

At worst, the United States is removed from Eurasia as a viable competitor and is relegated to a status of a regional power —still powerful relative to its continental neighbors but not having a shot at this second number of 4.67 billion [Asians]. This is a big chunk of population and customers. Now imagine if the United States loses EU. Suddenly 4.67 billion become 4.67 billion + 447 million = 5.117 billion, it is 65% of Earth’s population. It is a huge majority of world’s population and, most importantly, population much of which can pay for goods, unlike it is the case with gigantic population of Africa. Moreover, this population is concentrated within a single continental mass which is insulated from the United States by two oceans.

The United States cannot allow this consolidation of the market to happen and the loss of Europe, Washington’s thinking goes, is tantamount to capitulation. So, the United States must hold on to EU, or whatever it will become once EU inevitably collapses, and NATO remains the only tool to drive European weaklings into submission. Making Russia obliterate Ukrainian Armed Forces is a perfect way to scare Europeans into abandoning any attempts to economically compete with the United States and deny them access to Russia’s energy.

Could that really be the U.S. strategy? If so it is rather short term thinking. How long would the new situation of Europe as a U.S. protectorate hold. Five years? A decade?

Moreover as a strategy it is rather poorly thought out and I have yet to detect any serious thought behind most U.S. policies.

Then again - the neo-conservatives in the Biden administration, like Victoria Nuland who is nominated as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, are not known for long term strategic thinking but for ruthless activism. They might want to create chaos in Europe without giving much thought to the aftermath.

Posted by b on April 9, 2021 at 16:41 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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JR @ 98

I have pointed this out before and will keep pointing it out. Brzezinski was a Polish aristocrat born in the eponymous town of Brzezany,, Galicia, Ukraine. He is an expat. Of course Ukraine is the center of the universe in his mind. All expats do that. His book, or rather pamphlet, has been enormously influential in US policy circles. Required reading at Thomas Pickering School, meaning all State Department employees have read it. Outside US it is recognized as expat tripe. Otherwise your comment is spot on.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 10 2021 14:14 utc | 101

Mr. Bernard

Very true, 30% of France's standard of living is based on capital extractions from places such as Senegal. They plunder Africa and then they wonder why Africans are so desperate to leave.

White people worry about racism in the North, while Nigerian girls are trans-shipped across Sahara for European brothels, just like the Roman times.

Posted by: Fyi | Apr 10 2021 14:45 utc | 102

JR @ 98

So the schoolyard bully US rather destroys all it can't have just to prevent a challenger to emerge. Validating this approach to geopolitical strategy by proudly referring that both Hitler and Stalin shared this geopolitical vision exposes the moral abyss from where this kind of thinking by Brezezinsky is coming

Brezezinsky is dead. In 2016 he had to adjust his grand vision because he realised that everything he had said up until then had manifested itself as so much deluded horseshit.

Clearly he was no chess player, but instead left a legacy of breaking the rules, knocking over the pieces, shitting on the board, and strutting around like the winner of the match (pigeon chess).

Posted by: john | Apr 10 2021 15:09 utc | 103

JR @ 98

So the schoolyard bully US rather destroys all it can't have just to prevent a challenger to emerge. Validating this approach to geopolitical strategy by proudly referring that both Hitler and Stalin shared this geopolitical vision exposes the moral abyss from where this kind of thinking by Brezezinsky is coming

Brezezinsky is dead. In 2016 he adjusted his grand vision because he realised that everything he had said up until then had manifested itself as so much deluded horseshit.

Clearly he was no chess player, but instead left a legacy of breaking the rules, knocking over the pieces, shitting on the board, and strutting around like the winner of the match (pigeon chess).

Posted by: john | Apr 10 2021 15:27 utc | 104

"For these reasons, Germany is tempted to switch allegiance from NATO to China/Russia. The moment this happens, it will be open season for all German exports and assets in the US sphere of influence - and German politicians know it."

LOL Without even Germany having switched to China / Russia sphere of influence and with the German elite sucking the US ass.. It has already happening for yrs, many German companies since 2008 have been under attack from the US. Siemens, Deutsche Bank, Volkswagen, Bayer in the purchase of Mansanto with a lot of lawsuits in the US etc..

Anyway the French as well. BNP Paribas, Alstom etc

Posted by: Nick | Apr 10 2021 15:29 utc | 105

Hello,
German longtime reader here.

The situation is simple:
Over the years a kind of matrix(Russia this Russian that, evil, we shouldn't cooperate cos valny and such) shaped.
The politicians, media and stink tanks like the "Bertelsmann Stiftung" created an alternative reality.


Now it's colliding with the realitieS (gas consumption, competitivenes, lost markets{imagine 200bln€ loss in yearly trades between EU and RU},etc.)
The Politicunts (more or less aware of the objective Reality) are now trapped in their own creation.
They have to serve the objective Realtity (a. E. industry lobby) and still somehow serve the Matrix Narrative (pöse russkis) .

That task is becoming increasingly difficult to do. But they try and it is really hurtful to hear the Bundessprechkonferenz.

I'm not sure for how much longer they can exist in two realities...

The countrie is doomed


Ps
Sorry for the poor language skills.
I'm more on the reading side

Posted by: Kartoschka | Apr 10 2021 19:08 utc | 106

The whole society is brainwashed to an unbelievable degree.

Willful Ignorance ads to this.

Posted by: Kartoschka | Apr 10 2021 19:15 utc | 107

@16.

Turkey's recent amazing drone success in Nagorno-Karabakh might have impressed NATO and co. so much that perhaps they think it will turn the tide in Donbass. Very dangerous indeed if they do attempt this and the losses pile up on the "Russian side."

There was no " amazing drone success" by Turkey in Nagorny Karabakh, where 90% of success was attained by Azerbaijan Armed Forces primarily through skillful and precise use of artillery systems and, especially, MLRS plus third-rate quality of Armenian forces there. There is no doubt that there was a great propaganda success, especially to cover its own, a roughly year ago "success" in Idlib when it took Syrians only 72 hours, after recognizing the threat of drones to deploy good ol' Buk-M2s and Osa-Ms to shoot down 10 Ankas and Bayractars to immediately change Turkish attitude. For well trained and well equipped air defense drones do not represent a threat as it was claimed, for propaganda purposes, by Turkish side. AD of Russia's Khmeimim air base in Syria repels on a weekly bases for five years a variety of air threats from swarms drones to MLRS projectiles to hell knows what. So far, nothing breaks through.

Posted by: Andrei Martyanov | Apr 10 2021 22:51 utc | 108

Well it does look like the US and their Ukie lackeys are getting the message that war with Russia in Eastern Ukraine is not something they really, really do not want. The big puzzle for me is why those idiots didn't realize this before they started the escalation. I am assuming here that there were voices inside the incoming Biden administration that were encouraging Zelensky to pursue this provocation.

I am impressed that it seems Alexander Mercouris was the first analyst that I noticed who called, in pretty clear terms, about two weeks ago that Zelensky had no choice but to fold. I am impressed because at that time many of us, including myself, was running around with our hair on fire predicting the outbreak of a major war.

Posted by: ToivoS | Apr 11 2021 1:14 utc | 109

@c1ue (40)

Furthermore, the US doesn't care who buys what, so long as it is denominated in US dollars. Nor will the US dollar as a hedge against foreigners own currency - for the 2nd and 3rd world - go away any time soon:
a) The Chinese RMB is not open nor does the Chinese government want to enable its domestic oligarchs to send their riches abroad.
b) The EU doesn't want to be the international reserve currency.
c) The Japanese are too xenophobic and their printing makes the US look positively austere.

I'm assuming by now that this boils down to neither of the three entities wanting their currencies to be the sole reserve currency in a nutshell.
To me, it's really disappointing because the cash denominations of the euro and yen are relatively modern compared to the US dollar, having:
* banknotes printed in different colors (easier to tell apart)
* coins minted with their values in large Arabic numerals (what's the point of a reserve currency if you don't speak/read English?)
* coins for 50 cents and 1 dollar (have you seen what a dollar buys today compared to decades past?)
* no copper-plated zinc pennies (if you swallow one, you'll damage your stomach)
* currency symbols that match the first letter (E for euro, Y for yuan/yen - common sense, because 'dollar' doesn't begin with an S)
Whereas the US dollar remains stuck in the 20th century, and given that this is the ever-so-Exceptionalist USA we're talking about, a long-overdue overhaul is unlikely. And looking back at it it doesn't seem coincidental that Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi were killed just for moving away from dollars.

Posted by: Josep | Apr 11 2021 7:54 utc | 110

b, it would be a good idea to NOT use CR@P 'news' network as a source of info, except to prove it is lying - yet again. This goes for all the other Western msm snakes.

As it is, the yank thugs and mass-murderers in the usg, are too primitive to outthink Eurasia, and it is an aircraft carrier compared to Eurasia. The population of it compared to the Americas is at least 5:1; the dumbfuck yank PNAC in its arrogance and pride, as well as its unjustified insults, is heading for a major fall, not to mention it is polarising itself - divided we fall - increasing its weakness. yankee warmongers FO home.

The cost and time it takes to move us goods to Eurasia makes it uncompetitive and vulnerable, and alienating its customers in Europe by ordering them what to do is backfiring and turning Europeans against the usa. How to win enemies and NOT influence people (the way they want to) is the typical result of its satanic actions.

Posted by: Ralphinlondon | Apr 11 2021 18:16 utc | 111

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