Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 09, 2021

Why The U.S. Might Want War In Ukraine

Yesterday CNN said that the US is considering sending warships to the Black Sea amid Russia-Ukraine tensions. That the U.S. is 'considering' this is however disinformation:

The United States has notified Turkey that it intends to deploy two warships to the Black Sea amid rising tensions with Russia, Turkish Foreign Ministry sources said on Friday.

Washington made the notification just over two weeks ago, as required under the Montreux Convention on passage through the Straits.

The warships will stay in the Black Sea until 5 May.

"One US warship will arrive on 14 April, and another on 15 April to the Black Sea. And they will leave on 4 May and 5 May, respectively," a source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.

The tensions in the Ukraine have built up after the Ukraine transferred heavy forces to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk, raised Nazi flags and made a lot of noise about reconquering the renegade provinces as well as Crimea.


Russia has also started some movement of troops and equipment towards its western border. For now these units are just training and not in a position to attack:

Although the US does not see the amassing of Russian forces as posturing for an offensive action, the official told CNN that "if something changes we will be ready to respond." Their current assessment is that the Russians are conducting training and exercises and intelligence has not indicated military orders for further action, the official said, but noted that they are well-aware that could change at any time.

A few weeks ago we explained why the Ukrainian president Zelinsky is under pressure to start a war. The country is bankrupt and in a constitutional crisis. On top of that:

Polling numbers for Zelensky have sharply declined. Right wing city councils call on Zelensky to outlaw the largest opposition party. Meanwhile the pandemic puts a record number of people into hospitals while a meager vaccination campaign is failing.

A war against the eastern separatist could be a Hail Mary attempt by Zelensky to regain some national and international support.

But nothing will happen on the frontline without the consent or even encouragement from Washington DC. The Biden administration is filled with the same delusional people who managed the 2014 coup in Kiev. They may believe that the NATO training the Ukrainian army received and the weapons the U.S. delivered are sufficient to defeat the separatist. But the state of the Ukrainian military is worse than one might think and the separatist will have Russia's full backing. There is no question who would win in such a fight.

Russia has since made its position clear:

Russia will be forced to protect the residents of Donbass if Ukraine launches full-scale hostilities against the region. That’s according to Dmitry Kozak, President Vladimir Putin’s deputy chief of staff, who is himself Ukrainian.

Russia is making such noise to deter Zelensky from any stupid moves. It is however not clear if this will deter Washington DC from ordering Zelensky to attack. The Ukrainian president recently was in Qatar to ask for money. He will soon (again) be in Istanbul to request more drones and likely also 'Syrian rebels' to be used as cannon fodder in the opening of a war.

The weather is not yet optimal to launch an attack. The grounds are still soggy and would hinder heavy weapon movements. The chance for war will increase towards the beginning of May.

But all depends on Washington. Will the Biden administration push Zelensky towards a war that would certainly end with the Ukraine's defeat and dissolution? Why would it do so?

Andrei Martyanov suggests a U.S. geo-strategic motive behind this:

[T]o convince those 447 million EU’s residents that they need America’s protection and weapons, America needs Russia to get into the war in Ukraine and if it will end up with utter destruction, and it will if Russia really decides so, of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and, likely, Ukrainian statehood, so be it.

Americans never really cared how many aborigines die, as long as it works for the US bottom line. Or, if one may, a condition of American condition, which is deteriorating steadily because not only the United States increasingly has very little of substance, that is of high value added, to sell to the world, but forming economic and military monster of Eurasia removes the United States from its, grossly exaggerated to start with, self-proclaimed status of global hegemon to the status of, at best, one of the few big shots on the planet.

At worst, the United States is removed from Eurasia as a viable competitor and is relegated to a status of a regional power —still powerful relative to its continental neighbors but not having a shot at this second number of 4.67 billion [Asians]. This is a big chunk of population and customers. Now imagine if the United States loses EU. Suddenly 4.67 billion become 4.67 billion + 447 million = 5.117 billion, it is 65% of Earth’s population. It is a huge majority of world’s population and, most importantly, population much of which can pay for goods, unlike it is the case with gigantic population of Africa. Moreover, this population is concentrated within a single continental mass which is insulated from the United States by two oceans.

The United States cannot allow this consolidation of the market to happen and the loss of Europe, Washington’s thinking goes, is tantamount to capitulation. So, the United States must hold on to EU, or whatever it will become once EU inevitably collapses, and NATO remains the only tool to drive European weaklings into submission. Making Russia obliterate Ukrainian Armed Forces is a perfect way to scare Europeans into abandoning any attempts to economically compete with the United States and deny them access to Russia’s energy.

Could that really be the U.S. strategy? If so it is rather short term thinking. How long would the new situation of Europe as a U.S. protectorate hold. Five years? A decade?

Moreover as a strategy it is rather poorly thought out and I have yet to detect any serious thought behind most U.S. policies.

Then again - the neo-conservatives in the Biden administration, like Victoria Nuland who is nominated as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, are not known for long term strategic thinking but for ruthless activism. They might want to create chaos in Europe without giving much thought to the aftermath.

Posted by b on April 9, 2021 at 16:41 UTC | Permalink

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thanks for focusing on this b...

i don't know that the usa has any type of long range strategy... and i don't think they care who dies, or what mess they make of other places on the planet either... it seems the usa is intent on serving the god of mammon only.. this certainly works for wall st and the military industrial complex... i really don't think concern for the welfare of other nations, or the planet for that matter, are any considerations washington gives at this point... and to have the same brand of neo cons in bidens gov't as the previous bunch, is not a positive sign either.. it is hard to appreciate the constant hate towards russia these people have.. i find it impossible to understand in fact..

Posted by: james | Apr 9 2021 17:00 utc | 1

I have very little confidence in the Putinist regime's willingness to "protect the people of Donetsk and Lugansk" if the Ukranazis have the basic intelligence to attack when NATOstani forces are in the country for "exercises" this summer. In effect the NATOstanis will serve as human shields for the Ukranazis against Russia. This is another consequence of the Putinist regime's "restraint " in 2014 when not only did it not eliminate the Ukranazi coup regime, but didn't even permit the Donbass armies to liberate Slovyansk and Mariupol when they were well on the way to doing so. As Strelkov has said - and been calumnied by Putinist regime worshippers for saying - the longer Russia waits the stronger the Ukranazis get, and the longer Russia waits to launch the inevitable Ukraine war the more difficult it will be. I can only hope that Putin will be sufficiently terrified of public opinion in an election year to not stand by and allow the Donbass Republics to be destroyed like he did Nagorno Karabakh.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 9 2021 17:03 utc | 2

An important question is what Germany does, maybe b has some insight...

Merkel recently spoke with Chinese president Xi

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 9 2021 17:07 utc | 3

Thanks for the posting b - I agree that Ukraine looks like the next action spot for dying empire

America may be separated from Eurasia by two oceans but global private finance is not. The City of London Corp may start to have restrictions set on it by the EU but given the chaos in the EU that is unlikely....and I don't hear any nationalization of banking murmurs so the God of Mammon religion lives on.....these are all bankers wars, aren't they?

The shit show continues until it doesn't....are world nations now going to buy more US Treasuries to rebuild US infrastructure along with the more Treasuries needed to keep them under the private financial jackboot militarily?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 9 2021 17:10 utc | 4

Germany does what NATO says

Posted by: DG | Apr 9 2021 17:11 utc | 5

The Zelensky regime is hostage to the Ukranazis. At this point Zelensky has painted himself into a corner. He can’t step back and withdraw forces without getting Maidaned and maybe lynched by the Nazis. He can't stay where he is because it'll drain his already empty coffers and the Joe Bidet regime is on his back to attack. He can’t attack without triggering a Russian intervention that would wipe out his regime (even if the Russians don’t go to Kiev and overthrow him, the Nazis will). His only hope is to get NATOstani troops in Ukraine to serve as human shields against Russia.

By the way, the Ukranazis were literally flying the Swastika flag when Zelensky came visiting the front line shows what they think of him, really.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 9 2021 17:18 utc | 6

Thanks for pointing out the planning of US aggression. One hopes this is all brinksmanship on all sides. If the plan is to take Crimea, then the USA has completely lost its mind and is hellbent on extinction rather than face collapse of 'the greatest country in the history of the world.'

It's understandable that those wanting to see the USA get its ears boxed are frustrated by Putin/Russia's strategy of repeatedly 'turning the other cheek.' Rather than weakness, we can see now how Russia has consolidated its alliances, developed advanced weaponry, and consistently worked within International Law and not the Rules Based International Order of Might Makes Right.

The United States and its equally bankrupt allies/vassals face a three-front battlefield - Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Obviously the supply chain is a problem.

So, dear friends, the question is: How batshit crazy are the folks pulling the strings?

Posted by: gottlieb | Apr 9 2021 17:21 utc | 7

"[T]o convince those 447 million EU’s residents that they need America’s protection and weapons, America needs Russia to get into the war in Ukraine and if it will end up with utter destruction, and it will if Russia really decides so, of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and, likely, Ukrainian statehood, so be it."

So far, EU residents and the countries in vicinity seem adequately convinced. North Macedonia and Montenegro joined NATO, the first even change the name for the occasion. EU rolled like a lapdog under the command of Trump. Atlanticists have a good grip on the European elite, and exceptions like Hungary and Italy, where the grip seems to slip a bit, would not be particularly impressed with the war in Ukraine.

Perhaps Americans need convincing, why they need super-sized military budget? Bipartisan consensus is there, but it can slip too with economy and budget both in shaky form after the pandemic (when the "after" will come). Atlanticist have Pavlovian (canine?) devotion to following USA, but Americans are not so constrained.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 9 2021 17:26 utc | 8

Why would Amerikastan want a war in Ukranazistan?

If Russia is compelled to invade Ukranazistan, it will be the perfect excuse for Amerikastan to

1. Abandon the dystopic looted hellhole that seven years of "freedom" has made of Ukraine, and palm it off to Russia with a statement equivalent to "you broke it, you own it."*

2. Make the EU close off trade with Russia, including but not limited to NordStream II, and buy overpriced Amerikastani LNG instead.

3. Interrupt China's Belt And Road Initiative, which intends to stretch from the French coast to Beijing and points east.

*I have said this before, but in 2014 Russia could have invaded, overthrown the Nazi coup regime with relative ease (no NATO in Ukraine then and the Ukrainian army was in no shape to fight), reinstated Yanukovych, and withdrawn. Now if Russia invades, it will be much harder going. And if Russia wants to do the job properly, the Nazi coup regime and its puppet Zelensky's so called government will need to be destroyed. And then the resulting wreck will have to be taken over by Russia at least in the interim because unlike 2014 there is nobody else.

This is what Putinist regime "restraint" has wrought.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 9 2021 17:29 utc | 9

The Zelensky regime is hostage to the Ukranazis.
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 9 2021 17:18 utc | 6

After "Sternenko supporters" flared and defaced Zelensky's office building on March 20, yesterday Sternenko was released from prison (sentence for kidnapping and torture, murder trial pending) to home arrest as he waits for the result of appeal. When "natsiki" are involved, authorities do not even try to look dignified.

About the concept of Russia "taking over" Ukraine, it makes no sense. There is a rift between east and south, where Russian vernacular and sympathies are strong, and the west where the situation is opposite. Taking care of economic revival of the "good pieces" is hard enough, Banderastan has negative net value.

American concept was to make EU subsidize it, and the very slacking effort by EU is one of the few glimmers of independence. In the same time, USA has no know-how (and/or inclinations) how to make vassals prosper.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 9 2021 17:55 utc | 10

Meh. There will be no war, just a lot of talk about 'imminent Russian invasion'. Which will produce more hysteria, which will, I suppose, help discipline Europe, among other things. Who knows, might even kill NS2.

Posted by: Mao Cheng Ji | Apr 9 2021 17:56 utc | 11

Nothing will happen until after Orthodox Easter. That date is May 2nd. People forget that while the western part of Ukraine is Catholic they are Uniate Catholic which means they follow the Julian Calendar. Ukraine will not go to war before Easter is over. That means neither nationalist Uniate or Orthodox Ukrainians will go to war. They will especially not follow the orders of a Jewish actor President into war during the holy days. That's not anti-Semitic, it's factual. In the West we pretend these things don't matter in the rest of the world tribalism is still alive and healthy, and must be considered.

Posted by: MGS | Apr 9 2021 18:02 utc | 12

To my mind, the most chilling sentence uttered in this whole affair was by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He said "that any attempts to start a new military conflict in Ukraine’s war-torn east could end up destroying Ukraine".

Lavrov never speaks like this and the Russians do not bluff.

Zelensky signed a decree recently stating Ukraine's intent to take back the Donbass AND Crimea! This means if Ukraine attacks, Russia WILL intervene and destroy Ukraine as we know it. I think it means Russian tanks will roll on Kiev to stop this war forever.

Moves like recalling the US Ambassador are very ominous and usually prelude all out war between nations. Combined with Lavrov's warning, Russia is giving all possible signals it is ready for war with Ukraine AND the US.

Posted by: Mar man | Apr 9 2021 18:03 utc | 13

Well, even if we don't get to keep the EU, we should get to keep the UK anyway, at least the southern part, for a while.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 9 2021 18:06 utc | 14

Martyanov is correct in the sense that the USA can only claim to be "universal" (empire) as long as it keeps the European Peninsula in its hold.

psychohistorian @ 4 states that the USA would still be the world empire even if it loses Europe because it has the financial system. But this financial system, including the dollar standard, would mean jack shit without Eurasia. The Americans would lose, by definition of the term, the petrodollar if it were to lose Eurasia, plus most of the world trade. The USD would have nothing to back it up as the world standard fiat currency; at most it would still be a strong, well-respected fiat currency (a la Swiss Franc, Pound Sterling, Euro, Yen and now the Renminbi) which would probably still be the currency used in Latin America and the Pacific region - but the power to enforce economic sanctions the USA has today would be instantly over.

Without its great foothold in the European Peninsula, the USA would certainly lose any serious claim to be a world empire. Maybe if it somehow would be able to keep the Middle East (through Israel and Saudi Arabia) - but that would probably be a Justinian version of the American Empire, not the Good Ol' American Empire of the times of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

If it were to lose the European Peninsula, the USA would just have Japan, South Korea, Australia and other Western Pacific islands as its last serious footholds in Eurasia. It would be what I called here sometimes a "Byzantine" USA - essentially a Western Empire, with some footholds in the Western Pacific, memories of a glorious long gone past. It would not mean the end of the American Empire by any stretch of the imagination (the true end of the American Empire can only be achieved by internal conflicts/contradictions, not external), but it would certainly mean the beginning of another era (a much less glorious one) of its history, for sure.

Posted by: vk | Apr 9 2021 18:19 utc | 15

Turkey's recent amazing drone success in Nagorno-Karabakh might have impressed NATO and co. so much that perhaps they think it will turn the tide in Donbass. Very dangerous indeed if they do attempt this and the losses pile up on the "Russian side."

Otherwise, the men in the east have had so much time to tinker and dig in that I would suppose that, like Iron-Mike Tyson, their defenses are impenetrable.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 9 2021 18:23 utc | 16

Hmmm...just today Radio War Nerd (Gary Brecher & Marc Ames) released their latest episode on the National Endowment for Democracy with a side segment on Russian politics where Ames tells his audience that Putin poisened Nawalny, killed Nemtsow in front of the Kremlin, and that he is 99,99% sure that Russian-backed separatists shot down MH17 because he read some people boasting about it on the internet.

Man, those limited hangouts always creep out timely...

Posted by: v | Apr 9 2021 18:24 utc | 17

I guess the Russians made clear they mean business:

"What happened and how this could be, that mighty Ukraine and her US handlers suddenly want to prioritize "political and diplomatic way". Well, here is some snippet of suddenly a much more peaceful mindset with a bit of explanation of this sudden (not really) change:

The United States on Thursday said it was discussing Russia’s military build-up near the Ukrainian border with Nato allies as fresh reports showed Russia deploying ballistic missiles to the area. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said that Washington was “increasingly concerned” about what has been described as Russia’s largest military manoeuvres in the area since the break-out of hostilities in eastern Ukraine in 2014. “Five Ukrainian soldiers have been killed this week alone. These are all deeply concerning signs,” Ms Psaki told reporters on Thursday."

And suddenly the Ukrainians become angels of peace: ""Liberation" of Donbass by power means will lead to mass loss of life among civilians and military personnel--this is unacceptable for Kiev, stated the Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Ruslan Khomchak. "Being dedicated to universal human values and norms of humanitarian law (I am under the table trying to get up....), our state places the life of its citizens on the first place (I tried to get up, fell again...)",

One could just as well say "tail between their legs" running...

Posted by: Peter | Apr 9 2021 18:30 utc | 18

A quick consideration on the MIC question.

It is patent that the USA, at this stage of its development, depends almost entirely on its defense industry - which is backed up and insulated from the law of capitalism by the State - on keeping its technological prowess.

We already know that, as the world's financial superpower, the USA is destined to deindustrialize (because that's the price of keeping the USD as the standard fiat currency without incurring the danger of hyperinflation). As it deindustrializes, another part of the world must industrialize - in this case, Asia (China in particular). That's the conditio sine qua non for the financial hegemony to exist without quickly self-destructing, i.e. another part of the world has to industrialize, you can't have a financial superpower without an industrial superpower, as the commodities are what back up money (as Marx once said, the use value is the Träger des Tauschwerts, the surface over which the house of cards can be erected).

By exclusion, the USA can only keep its status as the financial superpower as long as it keeps absolute control over the Seven Seas (most of trade still happens through the sea), which means a strong defense industry must be kept at the behest of the financial sector (Wall Street). The Defense industry is, therefore, the exception to the rule - alongside the electronics-communications system (which gives material form to the financial system, to the USD and the stock market) - over which the USA cannot escape. If it can keep recycling USDs through multi-billionaire defense contracts with other countries, the better, as it gives another life extension to the USD. This is what happen in the famous Petrodollar scheme, where Saudi Arabia denominates its oil in USDs by buying American T-bonds, but also American military weapons and systems, which keeps Saudi Arabia sovereign and intact to keep its oil reserves denominated in USDs, in a virtuous cycle.

That's why arms sales are so important to the USA: it keeps, at the same time, its domination of the Seven Seas and therefore of world trade thus keeping its financial system the dominant one, and decelerate its inevitable deindustrialization process.

Posted by: vk | Apr 9 2021 18:43 utc | 19

Well if all this movement of Men & Materiel ends up being mere brinkmanship then that's great and it ends up being merely a waste of time resources and money. If however the clown president is able to get Ukie forces to attack, then I think we may see some pretty serious kinetics resulting lives and property being wasted as well. I assume it's more or less a given that USA, ireal, and NATO parties are all on the ground planning and plotting for SOMEthing. Russia has made it clear that they will defend Donbass, and Crimea is really a non-starter. The reason being that Crimea really IS part of Russia now, and the bridge, the port and I imagine other facilities are not going to be stolen or destroyed. It's also pretty clear that RF forces have the hardware to make this reality. Therefore Ukrainian forces, no matter who is driving them, will get soundly walloped is they make an incursion. The only real purpose would be as an instigation that NATO could then get escalated about which of course leads to broader war. What is NOT going to happen in Crimea being repatriated.

Next we have Ukie mechanized infantry rolling into Donbass. The newly playable non-theoretical wild card is of course loitering munitions and UAVs with guided missiles. We saw what happened in Armenia, and based on an earlier comment emmissaries from Kiev are making the rounds with their begging bowls extended in hopes that they can acquire some of these nifty stand-off gadgetry. Of course RU-AF has countermeasures for such things but who's to say if they will be employed... If Ukie battalions do the same thing they did last time by rolling into towns on major roads they will likely be met with the same flanking cauldron maneuvers as last time. Now who in western Ukraine wants to do that? The desertions last time were pretty massive. On the other side of the stand-off equation are Iskanders and Kalibres which could crush any offensive within an hour without getting Russian hands dirty. I'm sure these kind of things have been modelled extensively, and with many different outcomes. Overall I really dont see Ukraine as a whole coming out of this looking or feeling very good. Thoughts?

Posted by: Chevrus | Apr 9 2021 18:43 utc | 20

If there is war it will be over in 6 hours or less. Russia will not have to cross the border their missile can reach Kiev with out any problems. I read were the Russians haven't even brought to the border the latest in weapons. We know Amerika and puppets will do what they did in Georgia Nothing. That didn't end will for Georgia and it won't end will for the people of the ukraine and I'm sure unlike their co-parts Russia will try and only go for ukraine forces.

Posted by: jo6pac | Apr 9 2021 18:49 utc | 21

"They might want to create chaos in Europe without giving much thought to the aftermath."
Yes, where do all these people get the certainty that a war over Ukraine will not expand very quickly into a world war. Where do they get the certainty that the existing overweapons would not be used.

Posted by: pnyx | Apr 9 2021 18:57 utc | 22

Sorry, there is not much in Andrei Martyanov's analysis to support the premise that the u.s. would push the UE into war.

The u.s. has nothing to gain by pushing UE into war, other than "fulfilling" a neo-con wet dream or maybe, and it's a big maybe, halt NS2.

You don't convince the europeans to ask for your protection when they know you pushed the UE, for example, into a war with RU. If the F35 is an example of america's offering for the defence of europe, one can see why DE chose to stay with a homegrown fighter. So what do they have to offer?

The Georgia + South Ossetsia etc conflict is an example of where the Georgian president feeling he had the u.s. at his back only to find out it was all smoke and mirrors. This is the reality of murikan promises. History is littered with the promises of the u.s. all the way back to the promises it made to its native peoples before it decimated them. This behaviour doesn't inspire confidence in the minds of other states. I haven't seen a great rush by the european states to bolster their armies or monetary contributions to NATO as a result of RU's supposed aggression towards the UE or its previous operations in Georgia. Has anyone else?

Zelensky has been rebuffed, recently, by NATO, DE, FR, and the U.S. No one is going to go to war to save his presidency. The UE armed forces are populated by non-fit slackers. They will crumble as will the U.S., UK, PL, etc mercs in the ranks.

Mr. Z. has aliented his backers (read: Kolimosky) and is under the control of his Bandera handlers.He would do well to grab what he can and bail out before his comedy act is terminated.

Posted by: robert | Apr 9 2021 19:01 utc | 23

Martyanov's analysis of a US strategic motive for war in Ukraine is certainly on the right track. It does fall a bit short however at the suggestion that the principal impetus for war is the fear of losing customers. If this were the case, there are actions America could take, win-win actions, that would preserve a healthy state of trade.

This ignores the imperial economic model. Win-win cannot work when one side lives at the expense of the other. A system founded on the exploitation of people and resources necessarily implies a balance of power heavily skewed in favour of the beneficiary. Taxes, tithe, extortion money, or whatever you wish to call the exorbitant benefits the US collects from the rest of the world, these transfers will surely cease once the exploited parties gain sufficient mass to oppose the system. The Empire's elite knows that time is running out and that the natural order of things is for an integrated, healthy Eurasian block unimpeded by financial racket.

There is an effective solution to maintain the balance of power. Remember that a ratio is relative, not absolute. This means, quite simply, that as poor uncle sam loses substance, as resources and opportunities become rare, there will always be a cheap way to stay ahead.

Keep the competition down is not a particularly new strategy but it is gaining ground.

As a cautionary conclusion, I don't expect the Empire to work towards another sharp iron curtain demarcation on its eastern end. What it has in mind is more of broad swathe of fire.

Europeans who are concerned about this eastern frontier should perhaps take some time to think about how far WEST the fire is destined to rage.

Posted by: robin | Apr 9 2021 19:35 utc | 24

This situation reminds me of the start to WWII. The war had been declared, UK troops sent to France where they waited during most of 1939. This was to give time for both sides to increase their "supplies and infrastructure" necessary for all out war.

In Ukraine War HAS been declared by Zelensky. The Russians have taken him seriously or at least have listened carefully. They have also noticed that a/ Russian speakers have been "fobidden" to speak Russian. b/ Uke Opposition members who speak Russian have been deprived of Media (3 stations closed down). c/ This may motivate Russian speakers to be more in favour of joining Russia, particularly when they can compare Crimea to Ukraine (eg. Crimea has built 200 kindergardens and is becoming a real tourist spot due to investment), with their own situation.

I suggets that the "buildup", is exactly that. Whether it will be used or not it will be ready. (complete). This is, as per Putins usual tactics, the equivalent of giving a take-it or leave-it "deal". Always take the first deal as any other later "deal" will not be so nice.

Timing; Sometime after Easter (as per MGS | Apr 9 2021 18:02 utc | 12). How close is NSII to being finished - they must be closing the gap fast? Maybe May., or after the NSII is completed.

Objectives; Here I disagree with many - I do not think Putin would actually "take" all Ukraine. Why add unnecessary problems? More likely would be the separation of the country into two bits. Those who would be more inclined to accept Russia and the "others".
BUT, that is a big section, from Transnistria to Kiev in a long arc. I looked up the "Russian speaking areas". There are actually many variants. The area takes in Odessa, Kherson and all of the coastline of the sea of Azov.

Why would he do that? To SOLVE the problem once and for all of course.

Here on MoA we have already discussed Putin and his background. Particularly how his parents suffered (and him later) at Sevastopol from the Nazis. He may not be vindictive, being more likely to put Russia first.
But if he goes in to clean up he is unlikely to use a feather duster.

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 9 2021 19:58 utc | 25

"Might want war"? Why wouldn't they want: as long as it's Ukies and Russki's killing each other it's all good, right? Standard operating procedure.

Also, define "delusional". The Maidan putsch did install a Washington puppet regime in Ukraine--or what's left of it anyway. The Bidens got rich, Natalie Jaresko got rich. It precipitated a sanctions war in Europe which the Eurotrash has unfailingly extended ever since. It generated political trouble for Trump, while Donald the Clueless never managed to use the Kiev dossier against his own domestic enemies. From the point of view of the people that matter, this is success after success; no wonder they want more.

To change this calculus, you'd have to open up the possibility of Bad Things happening to the US interest too. With Moscow's "you have nothing to fear from us" posture and Putin's incessant begging for partnership, so far this hasn't been on the table at all. Completely uprooting the Maidan junta might be something; then again, had Moscow been this decisive, things never would've gotten this far.

@Mar man | Apr 9 2021 18:03 utc | 13

"Russia doesn't bluff" is a mantra--an article of faith in certain circles. Like most such articles, it's also false. Most concretely, may I quote Maj. Gen. Konashenkov: "Since Russian advisors and peacekeepers are embedded throughout Syria, any attack on the country will be treated as an attack on Russians, and answered accordingly." To which the West merrily responded "F U, we're bombing Syria anyway" -- and Putin backed down. A lot of trouble since then stems from this I think.

For another example, the Romanian missile batteries were called "unacceptable", and Vlad himself intoned "Soon the Romanians will find out what it means to be in Russia's crosshairs". Suffice it to say that "soon" hasn't happened yet; those missile batteries are the new normal, and more are apparently on the way on Poland.

@MGS | Apr 9 2021 18:02 utc | 12

Mayyybe; but so far, the good people of Ukraine have shown little reservation in following their jewish masters off the cliff. I think few of them could articulate what Val'tzman/Poroshenko ever did for the Ukrainian interest, but that didn't stop them from voting for the even more kosher Zelensky. Might as well acknowledge that the Nazis, jewish oligarchs, and CIA have managed to seize all power in Kiev and keep it, in spite of their apparent differences. Perhaps Russia should reflect on why the hatred against them can be such a potent glue.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Apr 9 2021 20:11 utc | 26

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Apr 9 2021 20:11 utc | 26

I am curious. What hanzi do you use for Ma Laoshi?

Posted by: tucenz | Apr 9 2021 20:25 utc | 27

In a recent RT conversation between Peter Lavelle and George Szameuly, the latter made the persuasive argument that if the goal is to force a final divorce between Europe and Russia, encircle all of western Russia with unfriendly countries, cut any direct goods transport between Russia and Europe, deny Russia the role of conduit for trade from China, and generally sow chaos where Russia wants stability, then US policies, however destructive they are and stupid they may seem, are largely successful.

Posted by: Paul Damascene | Apr 9 2021 20:27 utc | 28

I’ve never commented before. I’m in South Africa, with family members in Palestine and family members who’ve lived through WWII. I truly hope that Russia has a strategy to make the US Mainland (I also have many American friends I dearly love) carry some of the consequences of anglozionist adventures abroad. The world is imploding/exploding under the weight of Western hegemony. None of the people I love (including my dearest family and friends or myself) will probably survive consequences a conflagration of this type could unleash. But what option is there to responding to ongoing geopolitical abuse by the US-ZIO-EU? How sad! Five billion years of evolution and this is what it comes to?

Posted by: Xerxes | Apr 9 2021 20:49 utc | 29

My bad. That should be Stalingrad not Sevastapol naturally, that's what happens when you try to do two things at once.

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 9 2021 20:51 utc | 30

I agree with Paul Damascene, post nr 28.

The EU is and has been, evidently, earnestly dedicated to satisfying US interests, at the expense of and to the detriment of its own citizenry. One has to be blind, trully or willfully, not to see that. The loyalty has been on display glaringly the last couple of years and certainly since the new president was elected in the US. There is no alternative in the EU to the US policies on Russia and China. The EU has no politicians of any format, no public intellectuals of any format, no politicis or policies of its own. It has progressively been turning into a copy of the US for the last 20 years. Just recently there was a survey of public opinion on Russia and China. Guess what - the vast majority condside them a threat and enemies. Great success for the EU "democracies". Close everything down due to a relatively harmless virus, force experimental injections on the population for fat pharma profits and a techno-fascist future, and go along (or even cheer) a conflict in Ukraine, a big European country destroyed, don't foregt, by the US and the EU not long ago. If that conflict forces Russia's hand - great! It will only fortify this horrible, inhumane system we live in, those elected thanks to the system and most of all those who already have all the money. The rest will be worse off than they are today, as they have been getting worse off day by day for the last at least 20 years. We do not have the right to be naive any more. The EU is a failed project, the US is in charge there and intends to continue to be in charge. And it will be, with or without a war with Russia, and for a long time to come.

Posted by: JB | Apr 9 2021 21:12 utc | 31

Check the new Martyanov post. It appears to be over.

Ukraine will no recover from this Not exactly a surrender. It is a defeat. Expect a power vacuum.

Posted by: oldhi | Apr 9 2021 21:18 utc | 32

Xerxes, Russia (or any other country) is unlikely to “make the US Mainland carry some of the consequences of anglozionist adventures abroad”. This could only happen in a “post-war/Nurenburg” type scenario, once the US has already been defeated. What they will do, and have been doing, is to separate from the US monetary system, work together with other resistance countries, and let the US isolate itself and fade as a result of this.

Fortunately the US empire has been weakening, and other countries developing and strengthening and working together under an ostensibly fairer paradigm. The worm has been turning against the empire. This is something to be happy and hopeful about.

Posted by: Featherless | Apr 9 2021 21:18 utc | 33

You are getting there but you are still a long way off: the correct answer is Leningrad, now known as Petersburg.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 9 2021 21:19 utc | 34

Stonebird @ 25:

Putin's parents survived the Nazi-led Siege of Leningrad (as St Petersburg was then called during WW2). They lost a son during that siege. Putin would have known of his older brother only from what he was told by his parents and other relatives. To my knowledge the Putin family has never lived in Sevastopol. (There have been online suggestions that Putin's ancestors were Finnic-speaking Vepsians native to the Leningrad region.)

Posted by: Jen | Apr 9 2021 21:20 utc | 35

Could that really be the U.S. strategy? If so it is rather short term thinking. How long would the new situation of Europe as a U.S. protectorate hold. Five years? A decade?

It could hold indefinitely if a guerilla war rages in Ukraine.

IMO we see a similar thing happening in Myanmar where the West would rather a guerilla war than the pretense of democracy that was only serving the interests of the Military Junta and China.

I have yet to detect any serious thinking behind most U.S. policies.

Maybe you're not looking close enough. Syria continues to be occupied and starved of resources. NATO is replacing USA in Iraq to ease tensions but continue a military presence. USA has remained in Afghanistan for 18 years while pretending every few years that it will leave. Trump conducted a stealth arms build-up while anti-China and anti-Russia propaganda rages on. Last week I warned that USA is more confident now that it has fieldable hypersonic missiles.

Obama told Putin that Syria would be a quagmire. Perhaps the same is intended in Ukraine? If Russia occupied Ukraine, Russia would get an economic basket case and a guerilla war to boot.

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It's very hard to determine what USA/NATO will do. But this ratcheting up of tensions is unlikely to be happenstance. A Ukrainian conflict might be triggered by an attempt to re-take Idlib, or interference in anti-Iran actions after the indirect talks fail, or developments elsewhere (Lebanon, Venezuela, or Taiwan).

One thing we know for sure is that USA wants to put an end to NordStream2. Navalny's imprisonment (and claimed maltreatment) and Ukraine hostilities are making that possible.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 9 2021 21:21 utc | 36

This might be a tad cynical but follow the money works in Biden world. Now is Biden so far gone with dementia that no longer applies? But if you go old school Joe, are there still ties between Burisma and Joe via Hunter? Where are the current gas fields and the future ones? Are any future ones slated to be in eastern Ukraine? If the answer is yes, there would be your reason for no civil war. On the other hand would a war slow down Nordstream? Yet I don't think Burisma could handle supplying Western Europe.

But is Biden at all in control? I tend tothink no, and his administration is pretty much neocon and Eastern European Jewish controlled. Is there some old revenge- retribution business that a war would satisfy? The Trotsky ones just want bloodshed for the fun of it, as would Sec Defense Ratheon. What about the likes of Blinken? I really don't know much about him other than no one on the international stage seems impressed with him. That's no good. Sorry for the rambling, just thinking out loud with typing.

Posted by: Old and Grumpy | Apr 9 2021 21:22 utc | 37

imho, waiting for a gleiwitz-staged-attack is out of scope!
so the russians have two options:
preemtive strike as a try to stop ukr. attack - without (m)any ukrainians killed and be a paria for a long time!
evacuate any russians from donbas and let slaughter any terrorists remaining
with a lot of live feeds from that front...

(both are sheety. also I dont think ukra. will attack Crimea least for now)

Posted by: prneost | Apr 9 2021 21:24 utc | 38

@tucenz | Apr 9 2021 20:25 utc | 27

馬 老師 -- does that show up correctly? I chose "Ma" as my Chinese name because of the cello player, I like classical music. Note that the "Lao" (old) part of Laoshi = teacher, while gradually also becoming literally applicable to me, :-) is there to denote a measure of respect in Chinese culture, while in the West one looks at the old mostly in the opposite way. Same deal with 老虎 = Laohu = tiger. But if you ask this question, these may all be old news to you.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Apr 9 2021 21:29 utc | 39

Mr. Martyanov often has articles worth consideration, but this latest one is very weak.

The US' economic and geo-strategic power would be great no matter what. It has a very large population with a high standard of living:
a) the US is the 3rd largest nation by absolute population behind India and China.
b) the US is the largest economy by GDP

Now add onto this the dollar standard:
i) 60% or so of central bank reserves are US dollars.
ii) 60% or so of international trade is in US dollars.

These 2 categories are why the US spends more than the rest of the top 10 world military budgets, put together.

Furthermore, the US doesn't care who buys what, so long as it is denominated in US dollars. Nor will the US dollar as a hedge against foreigners own currency - for the 2nd and 3rd world - go away any time soon:

a) The Chinese RMB is not open nor does the Chinese government want to enable its domestic oligarchs to send their riches abroad.
b) The EU doesn't want to be the international reserve currency.
c) The Japanese are too xenophobic and their printing makes the US look positively austere.

So what are we really talking about here?

Yes, the US oligarchy and its political drones are militating for a nice, profitable war between others. Preferably short and victorious for its allies/stooges but that actually isn't a requirement.

But these types of wars don't help the US dollar. It is the IMF, World Bank and central banksters which underscore the US hegemony/Washington Consensus.

The reality is that neither France, nor the Netherlands nor Germany are clearly pro-US. These 3 are the main drivers of the EU and are unlike the UK, for example. They'll go along with a lot in the interests of harmony but have clearly demonstrated that they won't give up their own major interests to do so.

Nord Stream, the euro, EU farmer supports, GDPR etc etc are all examples of this: all of these run directly counter to US interests.

Yet the EU also goes along with sanctions on Russia and Iran.

It is utterly unconvincing that a resumption of active conflict in eastern Ukraine or the Crimea will affect basic EU goals in any way. What could they do anyway? They're already participating in sanctions on Russia and Iran. The EU militaries are a joke - the possibility of the EU declaring war on Russia is literally fantasy of the worst type, much less China.

The US playbook of subsidizing oligarchs and ethnic minorities to war for them against their enemies has failed far more often than it has succeeded - only in South and Central America with its criollo oligarchs has it really worked well.

So net net: not in the least convinced of the major precepts of what Martyanov wrote.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 9 2021 21:29 utc | 40

@JB | Apr 9 2021 21:12 utc | 31

Thanks, I agree completely with this summary. Therefore, the EU must be dissolved.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 9 2021 21:40 utc | 41

Everyone in this crisis has some interest, the danger is, as always, in a ww1-type miscalculation.

Zelensky is doing an Erdogan on Europe. Erdogan created Syrian refugees by his attack on Syria and then used them to shake down Europe for many billions. Zelensky is blackmailing Europe with the war crisis of his own making - give me billions or you will have a war on your doorstep (F*** the EU with the real price of Maidan).

The US tribalists want a festering sore on a Russian border that they can switch on and off as needed to hinder Russian economic development. Their interest is not to lose this worthless country as a festering sore by being ground into the ground by the Russian Military, thus they are unlikely to push all the way into war.

Therefore, there is no deep interest in real war by anyone, but miscalculation ....

Soon this same war show will move to Syria, another déjà vu all over again.

Posted by: Kiza | Apr 9 2021 21:40 utc | 42

oldhi @Apr9 21:18 #32

Check the new Martyanov post. It appears to be over.

Over? First, this is a statement by the Commander of the Armed Forces, not President Zelensky. We will see what Zelensky's reaction is.

My first inclination is that the statement should not be taken as face value. It is as likely to be a stunt as is to be an olive branch. Maybe the Commander disagreed with orders and would rather be removed? Or maybe he's participating in a propaganda initiative.

Despite this statement, I would guess that Ukraine will not withdraw its forces but will renew it's demand that Russia withdraw. Just as Merkel did days ago.

And, if there is to be a war, this statement only sets the stage for a false flag. One that Ukraine is regrettably/sarc FORCED respond to.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 9 2021 21:48 utc | 43

the US sociopaths want to do in Europe much the same as what they did in Iraq - but using different means/proxies:

Create a situation of much chaos in a chosen country, as a relatively modern state dissolves, and use that as a pretext both to inject themselves even more into that region's affairs, and also to spread the 'contagion' of 'chaos' to other surrounding states..... where the US sociopaths who run the Empire will try (again) for regime changes in the surrounding nations (from Serbia to Georgia to the other Black Sea states) and beyond.

that the puppet Zelensky has been off to Qatar and next Turkey is a sure sign that these mindless people in the US national security state are going to try once again using the psychopathic jihadists as one of their means to inject instability, terror and chaos into the region.

on top of all that, as many commentators have already pointed out, as soon as Russia intervenes in a big way (if it does go that route), the Nord-Stream project is over with, Germany is without its gas and gas hub plans - plus there's now no gas/oil going to Europe via the Ukraine.

So two birds with one stone: northern/central Europe is then even more dependent on the US for energy, as well as 'protection' from the big bad bear.

Posted by: michaelj72 | Apr 9 2021 21:54 utc | 44

I read Martianov's text on Unz two hours ago at work. Just back home... Thank you b. for having focused all the attention on his Text this evening.
Let's be clear, the basis of his reasoning is linked to the qualitative and quantitative loss of production capacity in the US. My reflection is that Europe has fallen to about the same level. In my opinion, only Germany still has the know-how, the skills and the logistics.[everybody there know my advice on France]

So, as Norwegian

An important question is what Germany does, maybe b has some insight...

Merkel recently spoke with Chinese president Xi

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 9 2021 17:07 utc | 3

I just want to add, for 2 days Germany is in talk with Russia to produce Sputnik V vaccine!

I would like to please b. and other german barflies. We need to know/understand about Germany.

Germany can connect with Eurasia even through the Baltic Sea, which has had its moment of glory for three centuries. German industry work a lot with China, Pakistan... And for 50 years. B&R Initiative and North-South INSTN, all roads lead to Germany.

But I find Germany quite alone on NS2 and for the last two days on the Sputnik vaccine.

I think, b., it's time for you to detail the whys and wherefores

Posted by: Bernard F. | Apr 9 2021 21:54 utc | 45

@jo6pac | Apr 9 2021 18:49 utc | 21

>If there is war it will be over in 6 hours or less.
Are you perhaps familiar with the "Seven-Hour War" which is referenced in Half-Life 2?

Yes, when Saakashvili chose to play with the Russki's to see who's strongest, he got a very clear answer. But from the point of view of Empire, so what? If Russia thought they'd sent a message "No means No" about Georgia's NATO aspirations, the joke is on them: it only shows how deeply Moscow misunderstands the Dark Throne. You see, Moscow plays by rules in which the Americans themselves are inviolate (a courtesy which Washington certainly does not reciprocate in Syria), so the Americans never paid a price in Georgia and felt free to continue their games there.

Even Mikheil the Tie-Eater lived to play another lucrative day in Ukraine. So unfortunately, I don't think the 2008 Georgia War really deterred anybody that counts; for that, Russia should have gone after the principals, and busted a few skulls in Tbilisi. Ugly, but perhaps necessary in retrospect.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Apr 9 2021 22:17 utc | 46

not in the least convinced of the major precepts of what Martyanov wrote.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 9 2021 21:29 utc | 40

Don't focuse too much on value in $, and $ as reserve currency. Just have a look at PRODUCTION and Real Value (aka quality).
Yes, Amerika can live well but
IF don't try to be the Empire
AND return to work [factory]

Need time and leadership

Posted by: Bernard F. | Apr 9 2021 22:29 utc | 47

Considering the composition of the tribe running Washington, their hatred of Russia and Iran is simply atavistic. As if Putin is the literal descendent of the Tsar. They haven't even forgotten the 'Babylonian Captivity' centuries ago. These two great civilisations are an impediment to tribal geopolitical goals.

The Kurds had better watch out. The tribal cabal haven't forgotten the Assyrians either. The usefulness of the Kurds in Yinonising the ME for short term gain definitely has a use by date. They can be discarded once that goal has been achieved.

It's pathological.

Posted by: Paul | Apr 9 2021 22:35 utc | 48

the propaganda spin from the Department Press Briefing – April 9, 2021 notably leaves out the idea of the usa putting 2 ships in the black sea as relevant, while claiming russia is ratcheting things up.... these spin doctors are a pretty pathetic and transparent lot..

"QUESTION: Thanks so much for the call, Jalina. First, is there an update on the ongoing peace talks in Doha? Do you have a readout on anything that Ambassador Khalilzad is doing?

And two, to follow up on Matt’s question about the phone calls to Foreign Ministers Le Drian and Foreign Minister Maas, there’s also this rumor about the U.S. military moving vessels possibly into the Black Sea. Would it be fair to say that the Biden administration is ratcheting up the pressure on Moscow to not doing anything untoward in Ukrainian territory? Thanks.

MS PORTER: Thank you, Rosiland. I’ll take your first question first. As we noted for Ambassador Khalilzad, he actually wrapped up in his time meeting in Doha. He’s actually currently in Kabul at the moment, continuing his ongoing meetings with Afghan leaders as well as civil society on accelerating progress for peace in the region.

To your second question, I wouldn’t categorize – specifically categorize what you said the administration is doing, but I’ll just continue to underscore that the United States is concerned by the actions the Russian is – the Russians are taking that are escalating the tensions in Ukraine. And we also continue to monitor the situation closely in coordination with Ukrainian officials as well as our allies and partners in the region. But when it comes to Russia specifically, we have made clear that our engagement with Moscow – that it needs to refrain from any escalatory actions. And we’ll continue to hold them accountable."

Posted by: james | Apr 9 2021 22:45 utc | 49

Interesting to see the sudden back-peddling by the Kiev mouthpieces. I see a few different things going on here. First, and the biggest, is that I have come to believe that Russia (and China) has finally had enough, what with the constant pinpricks of the Trump years and now the absolute vitriol and diplomacy-killing antics of O'Biden, and have decided that everything else has been tried, the only way the US will listen is if it gets its nose bloodied, and bloodied good. Too many years of no consequences. So with this in mind, I believe Russia (and perhaps China) are actually looking for a good opportunity to inflict pain. In a way, the Nuland crowd have played right into Russia's hands, because the Ukraine is definitely a place where Russia has escalation dominance. I suspect that when some of those famous military channels began chatting, the Russians were not so friendly, and made it clear that an offensive by the Ukies would not only free Russia's hand toward the Nazis and provide a perfect excuse to rid the East and South of them, but that Russia would be specifically targeting US/NATO "advisers," command centers, resupply aircraft or any aircraft entering Ukrainian airspace, and would be just waiting for any US ship in the Black Sea to do something remotely involving it in the conflict, such that it would be on the bottom in minutes. This may have shaken the US military in their boots--they're not used to being targets. They're used to walking around stirring mischief all the while feeling they have a get-out-of-jail-free card and would never suffer anything more than a minor inconvenience. Big fucking difference having a superpower say it will be hunting you....

Another dynamic is the marked lack of leadership both in the Ukraine and the US. Biden no doubt waxes nostalgic over his days ruling as a king in the Ukraine...when the haze in his mind clears for a moment...but he's far from in charge. With no actual leader, the various quasi-criminal cabals are all vying for power and their crack at the loot, but there is much more visible in-fighting and disorganization. The Obama/Nuland Russiaphobes were hot out of the gate, and thought they were still in 2014 and gave Z his marching orders, just assuming Russia would hesitate to act again, totally misreading the situation. The military cabals of both countries would love to crush the civilians and militia of the Donbass, but when it started looking like this would be a fight with Russia, and the gloves would be off, both got cold feet in a hurry. They will still do it if the order to proceed is persistent enough, but they have put things on hold and are lobbying with all their might to have that decision reconsidered. This, along with mundane facts on the ground like the weather b mentioned, has caused much of the delay.

Other considerations include NATO realizing that drawing Russia into a messy, inconclusive brawl would be great for shoring up EU support for NATO and military spending, but NATO forces being rapidly vaporized and shown to be a second-rate police force at best might have the very opposite effect. Another is Germany, who not only fears yet more refugees, but also has probably done the math and realize that for all they want to pontificate about Green-ness, they really need that NS2 pipeline, and they may have told the US that even if Russia rolls into the Ukraine, they are going to refuse to kill NS2 (obviously a big goal of the US). With that "win" off the table, starting a war doesn't look so profitable to the US, and looses the support of the big oil faction.

I certainly don't believe we're out of the woods yet, because the neocon faction and CIA faction and DNC faction still have non-rational, overwhelming hatred for Russia and everything it stands for, as well as a desire to fulfill their wet dream of completing the rape of the Ukraine. This sudden concern for human life from the Ukies may simply be one last stab at polishing their image while they're waiting for the ground to dry, before unleashing war. But at least now there appear to be some in the West who are not looking at this as a good idea any more.

Posted by: J Swift | Apr 9 2021 22:51 utc | 50

J Swift @Apr9 22:51 #50

Another dynamic is the marked lack of leadership both in the Ukraine and the US. Biden no doubt waxes nostalgic over his days ruling as a king in the Ukraine..

I find it hard to trust comments that pretend that Biden or any US President is in charge.

It's clear to many of us that US Presidents are willing participants (team members) of the Deep State/MIC Empire Managers. They don't "lead" and they don't decide anything on their own - counter to what the sheeple are led to believe.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 9 2021 23:15 utc | 51

I take issue at Martyanov's assessment that:

"population much of which can pay for goods, unlike it is the case with gigantic population of Africa. "

Mr Martyanov is probably blinded by the fact that in his eyes, Africa is only jungles and savanas.

Africa is comprised of many countries with various levels of development and acquisitive power. The continent is growing economically all over, maybe not so much in the ex french colonies which are still being bled down by France.

But Africans need everything and therefore Industrial goods are specially sought after by them. Under the influence of China, Africa is forging ahead and within 20 tears could be the fastest growing market in the World.

Check Botswana for example.

Posted by: CarlD | Apr 9 2021 23:25 utc | 52

It is official on Agence France Presse. There will be no offensive starting from Kiev. Jackrabbit@43, perhaps it is Komchak in charge. Hardly matters who picks up the phone. Uke swirls down the drain.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 9 2021 23:44 utc | 53

Day after day, year after year, meeting after meeting in EU and NATO organs (and at Bruxelles evening parties?) the Europeans have been exposed to fanatical Russia-hating Poles and Balts. As a result, many do probably not longer see the world as it is (or are forced to pretend ignorance?). A rare meetings with cool-headed Lavrov, must be a drop af cold water into a boiling pot: No lasting effect.

There may be little else to explain why Europe will ignore the U.S. furious protests when it comes to economic co-operation with China, but seems to bow to pressure in the case of anti-Russian efforts.
(from the schizophrenia in the NS2 issue apart..).

Posted by: Cunctator | Apr 9 2021 23:54 utc | 54

Turkey notifies Russia of US warships’ transit to Black Sea

A source in Turkey’s Foreign Ministry told TASS earlier on Friday that two US warships would enter the Black Sea through the Bosporus Strait on April 14 and 15 and stay there until May 4-5

Posted this morning on TASS news website.

Posted by: Josh | Apr 10 2021 0:26 utc | 55

CarlD #52

But Africans need everything and therefore Industrial goods are specially sought after by them. Under the influence of China, Africa is forging ahead and within 20 tears could be the fastest growing market in the World.

Check Botswana for example.

"Africans need everything"? Not if the Usastani can impoverish them with endless escalated violence and uncertainty. This Intercept report of February 2020 sets out the map and 'rationale' behind the continuous Usastani occupation of Africa.

Here is a simple indicative map of the Usastani occupation forces.

Here is a simple indicative map of China infrastructure development projects in Africa.

As the Usastani occupation forces in Afghanistan have been resolutely blockaded by the Taliban for the past decade+ they have limited places to belligerate in. The Usastan is leaving Afghanistan - perhaps - according to Strategic Culture. I am not betting on that conclusion but it helps to have black people to murder and where better than Africa. For some reason the Usastani forces kept right out of Libya so they cant play war games there. But they have created a 'credible' ?? rationale over the past few years in Africa and they have their own insider Team ISIS well developed and in place.

The EU governments are tardy and their passionate war hawk, Stoltenberg is a fool. Yes a rowdy and nasty fool and happy to fight to the death of the last Uke Galician SS trooper but then I see the rest of the EU having the same attitude. Disposable fascist brigades are handy kit when you seek to demonise Russia. This is likely to stagger to an inconclusive but perpetual stalemate AFTER the Galicians lynch Zelensky.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 10 2021 0:31 utc | 56

Whatever anybody thinks, I think Russia will be 7 moves ahead of them.

Posted by: arby | Apr 10 2021 0:34 utc | 57

it is a rather thought out strategy and I have yet to detect any serious thinking behind most U.S. policies

Yeah but when you are a completely amoral psychopath, it follows even if you don't admit it to yourself. Once you have the premise, 'I am willing to burn down the house to keep myself in power' it comes naturally.

Neocons fall into your strategy without even trying

Normal people would have doubts such as ...
1. Why try to dominate Asia, Africa, Europe, and the M.E., I could accept that there are local power centers and be content with trade like a normal person.

2. I'd like to stop Russia but the Ukrainians would be better off making peace even if it is less optimal for me. Urging an unwinnable conflict is Götterdämmerung for them, that's just too cold blooded.

Notice I said, a normal person would have these self-doubts. This would create too much chaos in their minds to accidentally come up with such a Machiavellian strategy but if you are a Neocon, you are only asking a shark to swim, kill, and eat.

Neocons sacrifice others and then move onto the next project without remorse over the people they have destroyed; Libya, Iraq, Syria, ...

Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Apr 10 2021 1:11 utc | 58

Not sure what's going on with this Western MSM-supercharged tosh & drivel.
I haven't forgotten that Zelenski won the Uke Presidency in a landslide on a platform of patching things up between Russia and Ukraine. So I'm not convinced that he's decided to tell 80%+ of Ukrainian voters to GFT.
It doesn't make sense. Had he decided to change his mind, he could have simply declared that he made a mistake, resigned, and endorsed a pro-War candidate.
But he hasn't. So my question is "Who's fooling whom?"

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 10 2021 1:14 utc | 59

@50 J Swift

Some nice comments in this thread but I absolutely agree with yours. These are some very pertinent observations. Thanks especially for gaming the neocons in their fortress, and how they may have lost their shine as they entered the real world they had just spat on from the turrets.

To my mind, as I've said before, the goal of disrupting Germany-Russia relations is the greatest prize in all of this scene, a prize greater than the storm and the teacup it stirs in. The US would joyously break all of Ukraine - and Europe - to fracture relations between the two civilizations of Germany and Russia. And let us note that if Europe turned into the Stone Age overnight, the US would consider this nothing but an advantage. In my opinion.

Finally arby @57 makes the conclusive point, that Russia holds the cards here, and will do what she deems best.

I confess that my appetite is whetted to find out what this is, but I sleep soundly at night knowing that I cannot guess what Russia will do. This is the mark of a warrior to be reckoned with, and I find no other actor in the entire theater that measures to the same caliber, unless it be the Chinese.

And I agree with those who think that Russia is free, if she deems it productive, to move forward on her own scheme and to shrug off as irrelevant any "consequences" from Europe or the greater West. But what she deems productive, remains to be seen.

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 10 2021 1:17 utc | 60

I would offer one word for those few people who still think in terms of Russia's patience as timidity or indecisiveness.

As I have offered before, patience is an activity, not a passive state. It requires continual action, every moment, to remain patient for an outcome. It takes unwavering focus. I have heard that the spider, which is one of the most successful hunters in all of creation, spends 90 percent of its time waiting.

The spider is not passive, but has woven its web. Russia was not passive, but had frozen the conflict in its Minsk 2 agreements. That freeze has stifled the freedom of action of the entire theater and all its backers and exploiters for all the time since. And during this time, Russia has grown to meet its long-standing 2020 goals - and the world that the US looks to today is greatly changed from 2014.

One could almost surmise that in 2014, Russia was not ready to do what its planners had long gamed, and would not be ready until the 2020 goals were achieved (which seems to have happened in 2018).

In 2014, Putin advised Yanukovych to put down the Maidan insurrection, and he didn't. Putin then had to deal with the clean up. And now, from that clean up, what are the results?

Crimea is lost for eternity to the Zionists, who lusted for it for a hundred years - this was the first conclusive defeat that the Zionist movement had ever experienced. The Donbass is Russian, and cannot be conquered, but serves honorably and gladly to protect the border of Russia - Minsk guarantees this in its freeze.

So Putin, and the Kremlin that stands at his shoulder, managed the clean up pretty brilliantly, one could say, in terms of history and territory.

And that is the activity of the past, and the structure of the present. Nothing else exists here except what remains now to be written into the present and the future of this story, and it can only be written by Russia, and by no one else. And the whole world, including the US military, knows this.

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 10 2021 1:36 utc | 61

From a Russian Telegram Channel: ( machine translated)

“The sequence of events and their ANNOUNCEMENT leads to one point
1. The first is the closure of 3 opposition channels in Ukraine (the information perimeter inside the country is closed)
2. Biden’s statement – “Putin is the killer”
3. Unleashing a campaign in the international media that Russians have no Soul
4. Calling Zelensky to Qatar to receive instructions and a plan of provocation from the CIA and hold a conversation with Biden (to avoid leaking and recording tapes – for the Russian Federation)
5. Coordination of this provocation with MI6, with Boris Johnson – telephone conversation
6. Involvement of Turkey in a military provocation in Donbass, to make Turkey an enemy of the Russian Federation
7. Coordination with Merkel and Macron
8. Statement by Ukraine – at all levels about an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine – from President Zelensky to blogger and SBU officer Gordon and nationalists
9. Constant provocations – killings by the Ukrainian side of civilians by snipers and drones, including a 5-year-old child
10. Putin’s conversation with Merkel and Macron without Zelensky
11. Statements of the US State Department on the escalation of Russia in the Donbass and the movement of troops along the border
12. Biden’s statement about Russia’s guilt in cyber attacks, influencing the US elections and paying the Taliban for the murder of the American military in Afghanistan
13. Statement by Ukraine on withdrawal from the Minsk agreements and postponement of the meetings of contact groups to Poland
14. Zelensky’s trip to the front line with Donbass on the day of the memory of the Holocaust. Was in an inadequate state, which indicates the level of stress and pressure from the Western partners. Demonstrative hanging of fascist flags in the trenches on the day of arrival
5. Announcement of an investigation by British journalists from Bellingcat about the Wagnerian case and their involvement in the downing of Boeing. The date is shifting all the time – closer to the provocation
16. Unleashing a campaign in the international media on May 9 – as a parade of a country worse than Nazi Germany
17. Special provocation of the authorities of Russia and Donbass to aggressive rhetoric, which is then used as an argument for “Russian murderers who do not have a Soul.”
18. Constant arrivals of US military aircraft with secret cargo to the airports of Kiev and Lvov. The last – on April 4 in Lviv (this plane took off from the Moron de la Frontera airbase, Spain. This base is strategic for the delivery of military supplies to the Middle East and Africa)
19. Synchronizing actions with the unwinding of internal instability in the Russian Federation through Navalny, a “sacred sacrifice” in prison is also possible.

The date of the provocation can be tied to
1. Putin’s message to the Federal Assembly – April 21
2. Putin’s addresses to the peoples of the world – April 22
3. Victory Parade in Moscow on May 9
The provocation itself (should be the same level as the downing of Boeing) undermining social facilities – power plants, hydroelectric power plants, US bacteriological stations in Ukraine, or large social facilities – schools, kindergartens, churches for Easter, social facilities. The provocation should take place on BOTH sides – the detonation should be almost instantaneous on the territories of the DPR + LPR and on the territory of Ukraine.

Counteraction to Provocation is a COUNTER DISCLOSURE OF OTHER’S PLANS (this is a turn in the flow of events) and OWN COUNTERACTION (the formation of one’s own events, and not a simple reaction to them)”

Posted by: M. | Apr 10 2021 2:06 utc | 62

Well time for me to unleash yet another of my fantastic predictions which are always wrong:

If the Western Ukraine does stupidly attack the Eastern Ukraine, Russia will simply split the Western portion (the one closest to Poland) into one nation, and the Eastern portion into a geographically equally large different nation, which will develop an other government that sides with Russia. They will build a sort of military wall. Russia will marginally support the Eastern side, and the West will pay absurd amounts attempting to support the totally corrupt Western side. The corrupt Eastern side will be of small benefit to the West, since it already controls Poland. But the Western end will function as a minor buffer for central Russia. I thing that would be of some benefit to Russia.

Posted by: blues | Apr 10 2021 5:14 utc | 63

J Swift #50

Well said and much appreciated.

On weather - I took a peek at the satellite forecast for next week and it is not good for even drying clothes. Some wet days, some fine, some cloudy and later week - snow in western Ukraine.
All in all not good weather for warring.

It would be a good thing if the wet weather keeps the soil in perfect shape to delay the SS killers and enable domestic affairs to unravel Zelensky.

Good weather for farmers.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 10 2021 5:22 utc | 64

Haha, I remember when Hamas did that flag-prank with the Israelis a few years ago. They were auper morally shocked while the rest of the world didn't ecen take notice. (Russians and Israelis do really become increasingly similar in their mentality.)

I still don't beliefe in a Ukraine-Russian War in the near future. Ukraine can't win right now and everybody knows it, Ukraine, Russia, Washington, everybody. Russia can't ein either and everybody knows that, too.

On the other hand, it will remain like that now forever. You over-estimate the importance of the USA in my opinion. Yes, the USA is the all-mighty protector of Ukraine right now. But even when the US retreats from Europe in a few years the Ukrainians resolve to recover their land won't cease. Whenever somebody in the world will have a problem with Moscow Ukraine will be the lever to apply some pressure. Eventually the Ukrainians will attack, at a time of their choosing, in a century or so.

Ukraine is a problem for Russia that can't be solved by violence which means that it is a problem that Russia can't solve.

Posted by: m | Apr 10 2021 5:25 utc | 65

-// The corrupt Eastern side will be of small benefit to the West... //- => -// The corrupt Western side will be of small benefit to the West... //-
-// I thing //- => -// I think... //-

Posted by: blues | Apr 10 2021 5:29 utc | 66

Grieved #61

Music to my ears, thank you. Patience has served Russia well in past invasions, particularly giving them time to sight the enemies hardware and respond with fast design and manufacture solutions. Much was seen in the last Azerbaijan scrap that would be wise to prepare for and even emulate - drone swarms and kamikaze drones etc can be battlefield winners. Even in bad weather perhaps.

However it is only a short time before the perfidious Turk supplies his killers with the same kit. The Idlib head choppers have considerable drone skill already but the Russian and Syrian side have fair defenses. I still don't rule out a western Syrian advance to restore Syrian borders and perhaps that is what the Usastanis are desperate to deflect.

Time will tell.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 10 2021 5:41 utc | 67

b says :"Moreover as a strategy it is rather poorly thought out and I have yet to detect any serious thought behind most U.S. policies."

Their geopolitic strategy is clear. Prevent the Eurasia from developing economic integration between it's east and western parts.
Keep the industrial capabilities of third world countries behind to continue their natural resources extraction to Western industry uses.
Dominate their value added goods with their own end products.

The biggest miscalculation it made is China that became emerging industrial prowess it can't control politically such as Japan and South Korea. Along with their rise in industrial prowess rise also their financial prowess in competitive developing countries (they called 3rd world). So now that they have to compete against China in providing end products in these developing countries where their natural resources vital and where they're ironically would definitely lost against due to their currency values.

Posted by: Lucci | Apr 10 2021 6:30 utc | 68

There has been lots of discussions on Nord Stream II. The political juggling is just that, it is fleeting. Bottom line is Europe/Germany would welcome Russian gas. If geopolitics makes it hard to consummate for now, then parties can wait. What has already been completed will not vanish into thin air. A few years later it will be completed. Ukraine will lose, now or later. Again, it only has itself to blame.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Apr 10 2021 7:20 utc | 69

@Cunctator | Apr 9 2021 23:54 utc | 54

There may be little else to explain why Europe will ignore the U.S. furious protests when it comes to economic co-operation with China, but seems to bow to pressure in the case of anti-Russian efforts.

Isn't this simply what one wouldn't expect from the viewpoint of Realpolitik? For a range of reasons (financial and military, but foremost psychological and spiritual), the EU is never going to tell their benefactors where Uncle Sam can shove it; on top of that, they're so far giving the Biden gang an undeserved honeymoon. So they try to have it both ways by showing their lord that they're good poodles, precisely in order to protect the economic interests they see as vital.

Poking the Bear a bit is simply the path of least resistance: China has an economic fist and uses it. This is not just a matter of size, but also of the degree of state control. The "alternative" media are always quick to call the Eurocritters stupid, but they are yet to pay any price for their anti-Russian policies. Europe still gets its energy; Russians still hunger for European technology and luxury goods; you can slander Putin today with your Novichok theater, and tomorrow he'll be only too happy to pick up the phone for Merkel or Macron and have his existence validated. Now if, say, Germany were to be flooded by a couple million Ukie refugees, that calculus would change in a hurry--who is mama Merkel going to blame for that?

Then again, if you don't tell the yanks to go to hell, they'll just come back and push you a little bit harder. The EU may already have badly miscalculated, if their boorishness and hubris has derailed the investment pact with China. Interesting times.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Apr 10 2021 7:23 utc | 70

Ron Klain, White House Chief of Staff is an experienced DNC machine man.

So stumbling Joe has Klain as the filter that enables access or conveys Presidential decisions. I do not think Biden is unintentionally doing anything other that perpetuating the Empire Games. Klain is the main man has been in the game for a long time. He has vaguely progressive background but is firmly ensconced with a pack of rabid dogs.

Ron Klain is no political neophyte. A graduate of both Georgetown University and Harvard Law, the incoming chief of staff is a Washington D.C. veteran who has clerked for Supreme Court Justice Byron White, and was a staffer for Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts. He has served as chief of staff to two vice presidents, Al Gore and Joe Biden, and one attorney general, Janet Reno.

Years in D.C. also meant that Klain was in the room when some of the most significant events which shaped U.S. politics took place. For example, he was one of the leads in Al Gore's fight to get the Florida vote recounted in 2000. Klain also played a part in the confirmation hearings of two Supreme Court justices: Clarence Thomas and Ruth Bader Ginsburg (via The Associated Press).

In announcing Klain's appointment, President-elect Joe Biden highlighted his longtime aide's track record, saying: "Ron has been invaluable to me over the many years that we have worked together, including as we rescued the American economy from one of the worst downturns in our history in 2009 and later overcame a daunting public health emergency in 2014."

Read More:

and this at White House Dossier on February 8:

This, according to the Washington Post:

At times, Biden also seemed open to some of the Republican ideas, only to catch himself — making his ultimate goals unclear to those in the room, attendees said.

“It’s a give and take,” [Republican West Virginia Sen. Shelley Moore] Capito said. “So, he was trying to give, I think, but he would rein himself back in, in the end. But it was interesting.”

Republican senators and others briefed on the meeting said Biden’s chief of staff, Ron Klain, kept conspicuously shaking his head from his perch in the back of the Oval Office.

Klain disagreed when he thought the Republicans had their facts wrong, according to a senior administration official, or when he considered their proposals hypocritical.

If this were a Republican president, the press would be having a field day. They’d say it showed Ronald Reagan was too old, George W. Bush too dumb, or Donald Trump too uninformed to hold the meeting without help

IMO the USAi are just going to keep blocking, angering and sabre rattling and warmongering and color revolution making wherever and whenever they feel like it and until they get punched down. They cannot possibly restart their manufacturing as they have transcended that phase of capital accumulation. They are tied to the roller coaster of being a premature global economic power that has some but insufficient nations hostage to survive. The mix of economic services they need to survive is entirely in the hands of their opposition and the nations they have insulted or spurned. Now the 'other' has the ace card and the USAi bluff is called.

Time will tell.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 10 2021 7:29 utc | 71

Would a Russian intervention in Ukraine be that damaging?
I'm not so sure, in the 2008 Georgian-Russian War, there was localised damage but by avoiding entering Tbilisi, the less capable Russian Army of the time kept it to a minimum.
Outside of the hardcore Nazis in the Azov brigade, etc., who in the Ukraine army would be prepared to fight to the last bullet? I suspect the regular forces of the Ukraine army would put up nominal resistance before disappearing.
By moving its heavy equipment up to the front, the Ukraine Army is making it very vulnerable to blitzkrieg. A lot of military analysts think in terms of deep battle when it comes to the Red/Russian army but the Red Army was also capable of blitzkrieg operation as demonstrated in the 1945 Manchurian strategic offensive operation (aka August Storm). Is the Ukrainian army capable of resisting Russian blitzkrieg? I doubt it. The relative strengths of the Ukrainian and Russian armies probably mirror that between the Japanese/Manchukuo and the Red Army.
The only thing that would threaten successful blitzkrieg would be western, and particularly US, air power and that is not what it once was.
Running a blitzkrieg towards Kiev but without capturing it would leave Russia in control of a major part of the country, probably enough to negotiate the resolution it wants. Does Russia have the capacity to support Abkhazia and South Ossetia if the Georgians decide to settle some scores? Unless Japan, China or US invade far eastern Russia, it does and even then with two railways tracks and one road, any invasion won't go far until it runs into a tactical nuke or two.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Apr 10 2021 7:38 utc | 72

@ CarlD | Apr 9 2021 23:25 utc | 52

I agree for future.

But Martyanov "population much of which can pay for goods, unlike it is the case with gigantic population of Africa. " is for now and the next 10-20 years.

Unfortunately for some countries like France, ability to produce any value added (and cash !) is based on bleeding what's remains of his past colonial empire.
And that will not last

Posted by: Bernard F. | Apr 10 2021 8:24 utc | 73

"We will be ready to respond"

Don't be silly. It's a suicide mission on Russia's borders, not even the most stupid retarded prostitutes there are, the Polish would be prepared to die for the Nazi junta much less the Eurofag NATO countries. US will not endure a day on Russia's borders. Who are you trying to fool here?

US & vassals will be prepared to threaten with words from a very safe distance and ships running up and down Russia's bathtub after the war is over that's all. Just like Georgia 08.08.08 The ukraine stands alone in this. Novorossiya will claim the entire coastline all the way to Odessa and the retarded Nazi west goes to Poland and the Eurofags..

Posted by: Mikhas | Apr 10 2021 8:30 utc | 74

@Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 10 2021 1:14 utc | 59

I haven't forgotten that Zelenski won the Uke Presidency in a landslide on a platform of patching things up between Russia and Ukraine.

Who knows if he ever was sincere about that. Most likely to me seems that he simply was an entertainment figure utterly clueless about the kind of pressures he was going to face in the real world (see also: Donald Trump).

But does any of that matter: even more so than in the West, power in Kiev does not reside with voters, laws, and institutions, where it's supposed to be on paper. A lot of power in Banderistan is exercised on the streets by masked men with big guns, which those men are always itching to use. And those men answer not to Ze the Clown but to people like Arsen Avakov.

Ze was talking the talk about bringing in a fresh crew of unimpeachable integrity, to be verified with lie-detector tests. Just kidding of course, in Kiev it don't work like that: the Dark Throne told Ze in no uncertain terms that Avakov was their guy, and was not to be touched no matter what. As they say, the rest is history: so often the Americans are derided, but they have experience in propping up unpopular puppet regimes, and have clearly given some thought on how to make Ukraine's westward turn irreversible. The fate of the Ukies themselves does not figure in this calculus; most days of the week, they're giving the impression anyway that they don't deserve any better.

Posted by: Ma Laoshi | Apr 10 2021 8:54 utc | 75

blues #63 and #66

I was keeping a bottle of vodka with a straw here at the bar for but you seem to have already downed it ;))

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 10 2021 8:59 utc | 76

@Norwegian | Apr 9 2021 17:07 utc | 3

What will Germany do? TL;DR Follow NATO, because most German car sales are to Europe.
Seriously - from a purely empirical point of view - you can predict German foreign policy assuming it is driven by car sales.

Germany national policy is built on export, export, export. With the systematically undervalued Euro (relative to German productivity), German exports are set to maintain an edge over competitors. However, in the near future, large markets will open in Asia - much larger than anything seen before (factor of about 10x in size). In addition, Russia can provide large amounts of cheap natural resources (e.g. natural gas), which are the other key to the competitiveness of German industries. For these reasons, Germany is tempted to switch allegiance from NATO to China/Russia. The moment this happens, it will be open season for all German exports and assets in the US sphere of influence - and German politicians know it.

This explains why Germany always appears to dither between NATO and China/Russia: it knows it has to jump, but it cannot decide when will be the best compromise between possible gains and certain losses.

Posted by: astabada | Apr 10 2021 8:59 utc | 77

Dear Uncle Tungsten, I'm pleased to agree once again

IMO the USAi are just going to keep blocking, angering and sabre rattling and warmongering and color revolution making wherever and whenever they feel like it and until they get punched down. They cannot possibly restart their manufacturing as they have transcended that phase of capital accumulation. They are tied to the roller coaster of being a premature global economic power that has some but insufficient nations hostage to survive. The mix of economic services they need to survive is entirely in the hands of their opposition and the nations they have insulted or spurned. Now the 'other' has the ace card and the USAi bluff is called.

Time will tell.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 10 2021 7:29 utc | 71

all remains for US on $ dominance
This piece from an interessting US "think tank"

"These vital interests must be weighed against the prevailing Washington narrative that compels U.S. military entanglement in so many places and at so many times"

U.S. dominance of the global economic and financial system provides unmatched leverage to coerce other countries via sanctions.
The USD accounts for more than 60 percent of foreign exchange reserves, and half of the world’s loans are denominated in USD. Among the economic benefits of USD dominance is lower borrowing rates, which enables massive U.S. deficit spending.
The weaponization of the U.S. financial system encourages states to move away from the dollar as a reserve currency, a grave threat to long-term U.S. prosperity. The USD accounted for 72 percent of global reserves in 2000; today, the figure is 61 percent.
Russia, China, and even the European Union have all sought to reduce dependence on the dollar. Each has moved to insulate its economy from U.S. pressure by creating alternatives, or reducing exposure, to the U.S.-dominated international banking system.

For example: North Stream 1+2, as a direct link don't need transactions in $

Posted by: Bernard F. | Apr 10 2021 9:01 utc | 78

Posted by: Mikhas | Apr 10 2021 8:30 utc | 74

Couldn't agree more. The only courage NATO has is acting tough and bullying defenseless people from afar. They have no real soldiers, only mercs whose willingness to fight is inversely proportional to the risk of death in the field.

Posted by: J W | Apr 10 2021 9:10 utc | 79

Mikhas #74

"Novorossiya will claim the entire coastline all the way to Odessa and the retarded Nazi west goes to Poland and the Eurofags.."

I would shout the bar for an outcome near that except;

Nothing to Poland.

But only if Ukraine gets to keep Chernobyl ;))

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 10 2021 9:12 utc | 80

Posted by: M. | Apr 10 2021 2:06 utc | 62

Could you provide the original link to the Telegram channel?

Posted by: Paco | Apr 10 2021 9:26 utc | 81

Bernard F. #78

Thank you, Yes having just the five eyes in your pocket is like coming back from walking the dog with the droppings in a bag.

The bully has become domineering and vengeful so european and asian nations will be busy escaping their dependence just to have scope to assert or defend their national interests. USA is also exporting, via Steve Bannon, a form of fascism that is anathema to many and yet his team brazenly build political parties and resources them in many countries. Not a welcome ploy imo.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 10 2021 9:34 utc | 82

Remember that when Ukraine disbanded its arsenal of nuclear weapons (the fifth-largest in the world at the time), the West promised in return to help defend the integrity of its borders.

So it is only fair that either the West defends them or gives them their nukes back...

Posted by: Malchik Ralf | Apr 10 2021 9:52 utc | 83

Zelensky needs better advise when it comes to image. Look at the picture, he took I ride to an outhouse named VietNam.

Posted by: Paco | Apr 10 2021 10:14 utc | 84

Posted by: Malchik Ralf | Apr 10 2021 9:52 utc | 83

Yeah right, he was looking for his lost nukes in "VietNam"

Posted by: Paco | Apr 10 2021 10:18 utc | 85

@Paco | Apr 10 2021 10:14 utc | 84

Indeed, not the best image to distribute. Apart from the obvious outhouse impression, "VietNam" doesn't signal any strong belief in victory, quite the opposite. The helicopters taking off from the roof of the US embassy in Saigon in April 1975 is what I am reminded of.

Speaking of helicopters. I have personally observed military Bell helicopters flying low in pairs on 2 occasions lately. Not sure what to make of it, but it is not a common sight.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 10 2021 11:03 utc | 86

Stonebird @25, Blues @63, others
I like how people from all sides of barricade are getting convinced to partition of Ukraine. That's how one wins a war in people's mind.

Ma Laoshi @ @26
Standard operating procedure. {..] this is success after success
Yes - very much this !

Ma Laoshi @46
busted a few skulls in Tbilisi
That would be a win for US anyway. Big bad bear. More sanctions.

Paul Damascene @28, Lucci @68

Kiza @42
No. EU needs cheap labor, be it form Poland, Romania, Ukraine or Georgia. If in doubt, ask German asparagus industry. War/poverty is good for cheap labor.

uncle tungsten @80
Nothing to Poland.
Remember how West Germany absorbed DDR? Did they finish yet? That is going to be worse by far. West Ukraine is a liability, not an asset. There is already couple million Ukrainian gastarbaiters in Poland. Wonder what they would do if the border did not exist ?

Posted by: pppp | Apr 10 2021 11:50 utc | 87

@ Uncle Tungsten

USA is also exporting, via Steve Bannon, a form of fascism that is anathema to many and yet his team brazenly build political parties and resources them in many countries.

Reading Bannon's,Fox's,GP's for à while... All "MAGA" is nearly agree with Martyanov on economic, production, BUT infiltrated by anathema prop again Asia, mostly China.
Not a mistake

Deep state is almost everywhere blowing on the embers.

Posted by: Bernard F. | Apr 10 2021 12:13 utc | 88

Don't be silly. It's a suicide mission on Russia's borders, not even the most stupid retarded prostitutes there are, the Polish would be prepared to die for the Nazi junta much less the Eurofag NATO countries.

Posted by: Mikhas | Apr 10 2021 8:30 utc | 74

Polish military had a simulation of a war with Russia with woeful (simulated) outcomes. A simulation requires assumptions etc., so to some extend reflects the aim of the simulator: no to a war with Russia. Pretty similarly American military does not want an actual war with Iran (Poles could copy their approach). Concerning "prepared to die", multiplying zero -- or dividing it -- still gives zero. Usually, Poles would not refer to Ukrainian fascists as "Nazi", to them "banderowcy" does not sound any better, but rather worse (the latter "rebelled" against the former to kill 100,000 to 200,000 Poles).

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 10 2021 12:15 utc | 89

mr purkayast, what flag exactly are you waving?

Posted by: augusto | Apr 10 2021 12:17 utc | 90

"For these reasons, Germany is tempted to switch allegiance from NATO to China/Russia. The moment this happens, it will be open season for all German exports and assets in the US sphere of influence - and German politicians know it.

This explains why Germany always appears to dither between NATO and China/Russia: it knows it has to jump, but it cannot decide when will be the best compromise between possible gains and certain losses.

Posted by: astabada | Apr 10 2021 8:59 utc | 77"

I think this is absorbing the insanity from Atlanticists. In a normal world, an organization like NATO coordinates this or that, but it is does not have an emperor to which vassals pledge allegiance. And it does not regulate where the members buy and sell. EU is a trade organization so it does regulate that but with consensus.

OTOH, NATO and wider Atlanticism is a cult of sorts, and indeed, people may have an allegiance to a cult. Germans (and other) could switch to something tad more rational.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 10 2021 12:29 utc | 91

Someone has mentioned Chernobyl. Today it is a nature preserve where animals thrive, including species not known in this area before (a mutated deer?). BTW, the preserve spans Ukrainian-Belorussian border, the picture is taken on Belorussian side.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 10 2021 12:41 utc | 92

@Hoarsewhisperer #59:

I haven't forgotten that Zelenski won the Uke Presidency in a landslide on a platform of patching things up between Russia and Ukraine.

That Zelenskiy ran and won on such a platform does not mean that he’s actually following it. You have unrealistically high expectations of Ukrainian politics. Zelenskiy is implementing a much more aggressive policy than Poroshenko: under Zelenskiy, Anatoliy Shariy, an exhiled Ukrainian journalist living in Spain and the founder and leader of Shariy Party with 3.2% electoral support, was declared a “traitor of Ukraine”, which is being used to ban Shariy Party; under Zelenskiy, three large, well-known TV channels (think ABC, MSNBC, NBC in the U.S.) that dared to have differing views about the best way forward for the country were banned; under Zelenskiy, the Chairman of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine is illegally prevented from entering the Constitutional Court’s building by a Ukrainian security service directly reporting to the President.

Posted by: S | Apr 10 2021 13:00 utc | 93

bevin | Apr 9 2021 21:19 utc | 34
Jen | Apr 9 2021 21:20 utc | 35

Obviously I need a ROM update !

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 10 2021 13:10 utc | 94

I made a comment elsewhere, but I am pessimistic if it will be ever read on that site.

Piotr Berman April 10, 2021 At 9:02 am
Your comment is awaiting moderation
” [Countries] are evaluated irrespective of their support or opposition to U.S. national interests and values. For example, treating Russia, China or Iran the same as Poland, the Philippines or Bahrain simply doesn’t make sense. The former group are hostile powers intent on weakening the United States; the latter are steadfast partners critical to our national security.”

“Penalties should also be levied as a result of consistently poor performance and/or a demonstrated unwillingness to engage constructively in reform efforts. ”

Would it be simpler to levy penalties for consistently poor performance concerning the “values and interests of USA”, without bothering to make and read reports on human rights? This idea is so obvious that perhaps it is already implemented.
BTW, after a more careful reading of the material about novel mammals in Chernobyl, I realized that the picture was made in Ukraine on April 1, 2011 but, sadly, the animal was not seen in the area ever since,

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 10 2021 13:13 utc | 95

@Piotr Berman | Apr 10 2021 12:41 utc | 92

Nice joke. A kangaroo and an elephant. Even Darwin would not claim a few mutations could accomplish that. Perhaps Photoshop would.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 10 2021 13:27 utc | 96

I rarely disagree with MoA, and this article is largely spot on, as many others before it.

Nevertheless, allow me to play devils advocate, and propose that Russia may also have an interest in such a war.

Overall, losing Nordstream 2 would hurt Russia, but not as much as it would hurt Germany.

The big elephant in the room rarely being discussed, is that CRIMEA is RUNNING OUT OF WATER, badly. Since the Canal from the Diniepr River was cut off, they have big problems, and the solutions are expensive and many years away from being implemented, let alone resolved.

There must be some cost/benefit ratio in the long term Russian analysis, where a swift military victory could enable setting terms and reasserting control over the canal to Crimea, favouring a 'pro war' calculus for Russia. There is no getting around basics like water.

The questions is, would the political fallout offset the savings, by avoiding the less palatable option of investing in massive infrastructure to provide fresh water to Crimea, when existing infrastructure already exists and is being blocked for political reasons?

Posted by: Et Tu | Apr 10 2021 13:52 utc | 97

Brzezinski was Obama 2008 foreign policy advisor. Read the "The Grand Chessboard, American Primacy & Its Geostrategic Imperatives (1997):
"Eurasia is thus the chessboard on which the struggle for global primacy continues to be played, and that struggle involves geostrategy—the strategic management of geopolitical interests. It is noteworthy that as recently as 1940 two aspirants to global power, Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin, agreed explicitly (in the secret negotiations of November of that year) that America should be excluded from Eurasia. Each realized that the injection of American power into Eurasia would preclude his ambitions regarding global domination. Each shared the assumption that Eurasia is the center of the world and that he who controls Eurasia controls the world."
Scan that document on "Ukraine":
- Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.

So with al that nice academic language that book is a kind of "Mein Kampf" with "Control over Eurasia" replacing "Lebensraum" and just like Machiavelli's "IL Principe" supplying the elite with an amoral excuse to awful despicable actions.
So the schoolyard bully US rather destroys all it can't have just to prevent a challenger to emerge. Validating this approach to geopolitical strategy by proudly referring that both Hitler and Stalin shared this geopolitical vision exposes the moral abyss from where this kind of thinking by Brezezinsky is coming.

Posted by: JR | Apr 10 2021 14:01 utc | 98

@JR | Apr 10 2021 14:01 utc | 98

The US americans believe they are masters of chess (ref. Brzezinski), but the Russians are much superior in that game.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 10 2021 14:06 utc | 99

@ Grieved 60 & 61

Thanks, and I'm glad you expounded on two factors which don't get nearly enough attention. Firstly is that for the neoliberal, Atlanticist, .001%, transnationals, or whatever you want to call them, ANY large, powerful, stable nation-state (or confederation) is something to be broken down into smaller, bickering, chaotic pieces which can be easily manipulated for wealth extraction. Time and time again we've seen relatively stable, prosperous nations pounded and fragmented in what at first blush seems pointless destruction, unless it is the very idea of a strong, homogenous nation-state that was the target. The recent overt campaigns against Russia and China are more obvious, of course, but most don't notice that the others big competitor and threat to be knocked down a few notches was the EU. The overwhelming majority of sanctions have been every bit as much of a blow to the EU as to Russia or China, yet somehow this isn't noticed. The leadership of Germany and France, among others, have obviously been compromised and ever since Merkle, furious about the NSA tapping of her personal phone, reacted with outrage and then suddenly went silent, it was clear the leadership would be doing what they were told to do. Since then have come a baffling series of moves which are patently contrary to the good of their own countries, such as inviting the massive flood of "refugees" which were then placed on the public dole and allowed to colonize whole cities causing massive internal strife, and then of course continuing to renew the sanctions regime which have obviously been counter-productive by actually strengthening Russia and helping to draw Russia and China together, but have seriously weakened the EU. At any rate, at this point the damage may be irreversible and the EU may very well continue to split...but that was the point of the exercise. Many small, bite sized morsels....

Secondly I applaud your eloquent reminder about the strategy of patience employed so effectively by Putin. I'll admit, there have been times I've caught myself shouting at my monitor over Russia's outwardly calm response to infuriating provocations. But I take a deep breath, and remember Putin knows in detail what Russia's capabilities are (and are not, at the moment), and I believe also has a genuine moral code about responding thoughtfully, honorably, and legally, and hindsight has almost always proven his approach correct and with the minimum cost to Russia and maximum energy spent by his foes. Well, and if you let your opponent "push your buttons," they are controlling you, and he does not want to lose ultimate control of the situation. Russia has been remarkably adept at making moves on its own terms, and often in unexpected and masterful ways. Patience is more than just a virtue, it is vital. At any rate, thanks again for bringing attention to these issues.

Posted by: J Swift | Apr 10 2021 14:09 utc | 100

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