Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 25, 2021

The MoA Week In Review - OT 2021-031

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

> The fundamental misperception appears to be the assumption that Russia aims to find its way back into the US-led order; rather, Russia is pursuing an organized decoupling from the US-led order. Furthermore, the willingness to reach a political settlement is absent. The US and Russia view each other as increasingly less relevant actors and no longer the main focus of their respective foreign policies.
...
Until a new format for cooperation is established that restores sovereign equality, any summit between the two world leaders will likely fall victim to political theatrics and harmful posturing. Moscow should politely reject the offer and instead rely on less public formats to negotiate pragmatic and mutually beneficial arrangements. <
Brahma Chellaney @Chellaney - 5:55 UTC · Apr 24, 2021
Thanks to COVID-19, many nations learned hard lessons about China-reliant supply chains. And the Quad agreed to build resilient supply chains. But now, thanks to Biden's hoarding of vaccines and raw materials, many nations are learning hard lessons about US-reliant supply chains.

---
Other issues:

Afghanistan:

> Separately, a senior former Afghan security official deeply familiar with the country's counterterrorism program said two of six units trained and run by the CIA to track militants have already been transferred to Afghan control.
...
The CTPT teams are feared by many Afghans and have been implicated in extra-judicial killings of civilians. In 2019, the head of the Afghan intelligence service, Masoom Stanikzai, was forced to resign after one of these units was implicated in the summary execution of four brothers.

Earlier this year, in Afghanistan's eastern Khost province, one of the teams was accused of gunning down civilians in a counterterrorism operation. The United Nations has also criticized the tactics of these units, previously blaming them for a rise in civilian casualties along with insurgent groups. <

Armenia:

Covid-19:

Covid-19 Vaccine Thrombosis:

Annals of Diplomacy:


Original - bigger

Use as open thread ...

Posted by b on April 25, 2021 at 12:00 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Dimona missile strike by Syrian SAM:

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20210423-iran-missile-strike-near-dimona-reactor-is-message-to-israel/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_PYRP6ZNd0

Did Syria and Iran agree to launch as SAM missile with a ballistic trajectory calculated to land near the Nuclear Reactor as a message to Israel, under the cover of a 'stray missile' responding to an Israeli aerial attack?

Will the chosen ones get the message, that, after 1,000 plus bombing missions against Syria without a single response, and overt attacks against Iranian Nuclear facilities and its key people, enough is enough?

Posted by: Et Tu | Apr 26 2021 11:20 utc | 101

Grieved @Apr25 21:26 #56

Thanks for the youtube video of Dr. testimony.

Sending people home to die and infect members of their household was a recipie for disaster. I'm convinced that that this "policy failure" was deliberate.

IMO the Trump Administration made a wilful decision to allow the pandemic to spread just like the Obama Administration made a wilful decision to allow the rise of ISIS.

<> <> <> <> <> <>

My view is at odds with those that excuse the spread as 'inevitable' for reasons OTHER THAN geopolitics and Big Pharma influence such as:

  • Wm Gruff @Apr25 19:55 #36
    ... it was a lost cause from the very beginning to hope that the West could somehow control the pandemic.
  • oldhippie @Apr25 22:35 #68:
    My first post here on covid topic said that US would not culturally be capable of doing anything like what China had done. And likely could not cope culturally at all.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 26 2021 11:43 utc | 102

There are only seven known coronaviruses. Four of them are responsible for the common cold. We all have antibodies to all four of those viruses, good and effective antibodies. And we keep catching cold. How could that be? It happens because the lungs are flat vulnerable. It is a good place to start an infection. There is not all that much mucus on surface of lung, a layer of mucus would interfere with oxygen transfer. If there is mucus present the patient is coughing and hawking. Which is a response to an already established infection. Common cold coronaviruses will get you again and again no matter how great your antibodies.

I said we all have antibodies. Not quite. Children need to be exposed and their bodies need to learn. What is happening to children now? They are being sheltered, even within the family they have far less physical contact with relatives. Certainly friends and neighbors don’t handle the little ones as they used to. This is not an experiment that should happen.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 26 2021 11:45 utc | 103

Cleaned up a bunch of corona nonsense

Posted by: b | Apr 26 2021 9:12 utc | 92

Thanks a lot. I started reading comments this AM, gave up after the then tenth one. So much hysterical nonsense.

Posted by: phiw13 | Apr 26 2021 11:45 utc | 104

oldhippie @ 101

Yes, I saw that as well. It's worth repeating...

...50-60% of new Covid patients [in his purview] are fully vaccinated

Or maybe it's just more nonsense.

Posted by: john | Apr 26 2021 11:48 utc | 105

oldhippie wrote:

Harvey Risch, Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health at Yale, author of 330 published articles etc. etc. was on Steve Bannon’s War Room last night. Because where else can the Editor of the International Journal of Cancer get a public hearing? Citing only clinicians of his acquaintance he stated that 50-60% of new Covid patients are fully vaccinated.

________________________________________________________

You seem to be willing to swallow any obvious bullshit that any medical professional states (as long as it fits your narrative)
In Israel close to 100% of the population has been vaccinated so 50%-60% of newly infected people being vaccinated would be a surprisingly low percentage. But of course the statement would still be BS

This clown has no idea what percentage of new cases have had the vaccine and even if he did have access to that info - so what? The vaccine producers have never claimed it prevents people from getting covid. The claim is that it is effective at preventing serious debilitating illness and death. So what percentage of those who now are being admitted to ICUs or are dying from covid were fully vaccinated?

As a matter of logic one would expect the fully vaccinated to now have higher rates of infection. They are the ones who are now going out and getting a haircut, or doing some shopping or socializing that they have been putting off for a year.

Posted by: jinn | Apr 26 2021 12:11 utc | 106

Good news for Japan: […] LDP is losing. I prefer the Japan Communist Party but I'll take the DPP.

Posted by: Smith | Apr 26 2021 8:05 utc | 90

Don’t hold you breath, could be painful. Yes, true that the LDP lost 3 by elections this past WE. But. The election in Hiroshima was to replace the incumbent who had to resign in disgrace due to massive corruption, and the rather lame (ahem… incompetent) attempts by the Tokyo elites to cover it up. In Nagano, the popular incumbent (Yuichiro Hata, son of the former prime minister) died unexpectedly of Covid, his brother (who did good work at the more local level) replaces him. And Hokkaido has always been a strong hold for the more progressive opposition parties, some seats toggle between LDP and others on a very regular basis. OK, the current prime minister is not popular, his, and the broader Tokyo elites handling of the Covid pandemic has been a disaster, add to that various other issues and the obsession to hold the Tokyo Olympics… The LDP will not disappearing though. Come September, the current prime minister (Suga) will probably be replaced, he was always a stopgap figure me thinks, and probably exhausted by being the second in command for almost 8 years. Elections must be by mid October anyway.

BTW, the DPP does not exist anymore in anything but name. Maybe you mean the CDPJ (led by Edano-san). I would not want the Communist Party of Japan to hold power nationally. They do good work locally, and as an opposition party though.

Posted by: phiw13 | Apr 26 2021 13:09 utc | 107

@ phiw13

Out of all the parties in Japan, I rate the JCP as having the most realistic foreign policy right now since they have actual reasonable actions to solve many of Japan problems instead of bowing down to the US or to the Japan corporations.

But yeah, I seem to mistake between the DPP and CDPJ, all of these opposition parties need to band together and push out the LDP tho, this is a historic moment, a chance.

Posted by: Smith | Apr 26 2021 13:18 utc | 108

Mr. oldhippie

The typical decay rate of proteins in homo-sapiens is roughly 230 hours - about ten days.

But the body keeps on producing them - in this case the immune system of the body.

Posted by: fyi | Apr 26 2021 13:31 utc | 109

Mr. Smith

Japan and Korea have no independent foreign policy from that of the United States.

Posted by: fyi | Apr 26 2021 13:32 utc | 110

@ fyi

That's simplifying a bit too much.

The US has deep connections with Japan industries, banks, military and its conservative parties, but in the end, it's the people that count. And the japanese have finally noticed the robbery going since the 70s.

Posted by: Smith | Apr 26 2021 13:34 utc | 111

James @ 81 and Bemildred @ 94

I am with you guys. That covid topic is beaten and beaten and not one soul has changed their mind. b posts that he has removed several of the covid crap and yet the next ten posts are about covid.

Posted by: arby | Apr 26 2021 13:51 utc | 112

Smith @ 112

A bit of wishful thinking there… More than ever in the past 20+ years that I have lived in this country, the Japanese people turn a welcome eye on the US. There are pockets of critical thinking but those are small isolated little islands.

And fyi is basically – albeit in a simplistic way – correct regarding the Japanese foreign policy. Even the Communist Party is very pro-US.

Posted by: phiw13 | Apr 26 2021 14:04 utc | 113

Posted by: arby | Apr 26 2021 13:51 utc | 113

Yeah, ideological disputes are all the same. What some people think in their little minds is very important to all the other people with little minds. I am not agnostic on the subject, I don't think we have a very good idea yet of what the virus is or where it came from or what it is likely to do next, and what we ought to do is shut up and pay attention and study what is happening. But that is the last thing we want to do, that is very political, looking at things candidly without making theories and conclusions, that makes various responsible big-shots look very bad, incompetent, etc. so we get all this wall of bullshit instead. Man has been food for microbes for quite as long as we have been here at all, and it is only recently that we have acquired this delusion that we have won that war.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 26 2021 14:13 utc | 114

@jinn 107
"The vaccine producers have never claimed it prevents people from getting covid."

Therefore it's not a vaccine, so why the f would anybody consider getting injected with it.

Posted by: jasman | Apr 26 2021 14:29 utc | 115

Xi says ideals, convictions key to success of Chinese revolution

--//--

Biden’s First Hundred Days: A Historical Audit

I'm curious to read from the Americans here: does the American people really think Biden is a historical POTUS (for good and/or for bad)?

From the outside, the picture is very clear to me: Biden represents an uninterrupted sequence of continuity in degeneration of the American Empire since at least George W. Bush. I see absolutely no change on a historical scale with the election of Biden - on the contrary, Biden represents the persistence of the establishment, the entrenchment of the status quo in the USA.

To me, it looks like the left-wing of the American MSM is desperately trying to sell the status quo as the revolutionary, degeneration as progress, Biden as the new FDR. Sincerely, it looks pathetic - if I didn't know these propagandists are being paid handsomely for this operation, I would feel pity for them.

--//--

CPC once again remembering some of its capitalists of their place:

China's top market regulator probes Meituan over alleged monopoly conduct

--//--

I told you so:

New U.S. cases still at a ‘precarious’ level, Fauci says, amid slowing vaccination rates

I may have been too late for the Americans to start the vaccination. The virus probably has already crossed the herd immunity line (above 30% of the total population against a theoretical 100% efficacy vaccine), and a full containment of the pandemic is now impossible. It was all, in the great scheme of things (i.e. from the geopolitical/capitalist point of view), in vain.

And they better hope their mRNA vaccines are good against the new variants (specially the Brazilian and South African ones), because, otherwise, the cadavers will start to pile up on the frozen containers once again.

Posted by: vk | Apr 26 2021 14:39 utc | 116

jasman asked:
so why the f would anybody consider getting injected with it.
_________________________________________________

Because they believe it will reduce their chances of getting debilitating sickness or death
and its free.

Posted by: jinn | Apr 26 2021 14:50 utc | 117

jasman asked:
so why the f would anybody consider getting injected with it.
_________________________________________________

Because they believe it will reduce their chances of getting debilitating sickness or death
and its free.

Posted by: jinn | Apr 26 2021 14:50 utc | 118

vk @117:

"I'm curious to read from the Americans here: does the American people really think Biden is a historical POTUS (for good and/or for bad)?"

For a populace with a historical memory only somewhat better than that of a fruit fly . . . well, you get the idea."

"To me, it looks like the left-wing of the American MSM is desperately trying to sell the status quo as the revolutionary, degeneration as progress, Biden as the new FDR. Sincerely, it looks pathetic - if I didn't know these propagandists are being paid handsomely for this operation, I would feel pity for them."

People like Rachel Maddow are paid, of course, but most partisans are hopelessly mired in the "Go Team!" mindset. Thus we have Schroedinger's Biden: the great upholder of All That Is Good About America, Which Is Everything Of Course, and Biden the Bold Progressive Leading Us To The Promised Land.

Posted by: corvo | Apr 26 2021 14:57 utc | 119

@Et Tu | Apr 26 2021 11:20 utc | 102

Did Syria and Iran agree to launch as SAM missile with a ballistic trajectory calculated to land near the Nuclear Reactor as a message to Israel, under the cover of a 'stray missile' responding to an Israeli aerial attack?
I cannot prove anything, but this claim from Israel that it was a 'stray missile' from Syria sounds like a distraction to me, it may be easier for Israel to claim it came from Syria than further away.

Your link Iran: Missile strike near Dimona reactor is message to Israel seems to enhance my suspicion that it was something else:

"The Israeli narrative about the missile that fell near the Dimona reactor contains clear loopholes," they said, adding that the missile could have hit Dimona, "but creating a catastrophe is not required".

Perhaps it was a tiny little gift all the way from Iran, small and fast enough that it was difficult to detect or intercept? Maybe that is what you thought also?

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 26 2021 15:07 utc | 120

"I'm curious to read from the Americans here: does the American people really think Biden is a historical POTUS (for good and/or for bad)?"

That the "American people" as a whole can be said to think anything at all seems a very dubious proposition to me. We are deeply divided and constantly harassed with political and marketing bullshit by our elites. I think a majority are glad Trump is gone, and that is the extent of the credibility that Biden enjoys at the moment: he's not Trump.

In terms of competence and ability to do the job, I don't see much difference, but it can be said for Biden that he and his "staff" do seem to want to govern, unlike Trump who basically did not give a crap about anything but preening in public and graft.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 26 2021 15:15 utc | 121

RE: Dimona, I am seeing that Iran is saying Dimona and the rocket site explosion were deliberate warnings, at Saker for one, and Saker is still pushing war in Ukraine. I see a lot of Houthi claims regarding attacks in Saudia too.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 26 2021 15:21 utc | 122

@ Bemildred | Apr 26 2021 15:21 utc | 123 about the war that is not being televised....

I think that could be the best kind of war...it shows the MSM side losing and not want to publicize it.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 26 2021 15:43 utc | 123

@ 89 bernard f... thanks.. it is on now...

@ 113 arby / bemildred.... i like what you said arby and bemildred as it is how i see it too...

@ grieved.... i see b got rid of those posts by the newbie.. truth is they knew i was a canuck before i had said anything about being a canuck.. they were either someone who changed their handle, or who did a lot of reading at moa before posting all they did yesterday.... i knew that much... cheers...

Posted by: james | Apr 26 2021 15:51 utc | 124

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 25 2021 21:26 utc | 56

A similar account of the overturning of normal scientific and medical protocol wrt treatment was related by Dr. Pierre Kory who testified before the US Senate last spring. He can be heard in a recent interview at dr John Campbell U.K. site.

One missing dot yet to be connected is why the pandemic was from the start, as early as the fall of 2019 when Fauci was first summoned to meet with WH and security officials re fast tracking vaccine development, treated as an intelligence issue and not a public heath issue.

We commoners can only guess, but it seems that making profits, however immoral, is married to the kind of totalitarian ideology imagined and persecuted against the USSR (and China — see Ellsberg’s Doomsday Machine where he documents how the nuclear first strike plan he interrogated in 1958 targeted both without distinction, including all cities with populations over 25,000). It seems the imagined victor over the expansionary powers of ww 2 became the very thing it once condemned.

Steroids have finally been accepted as treatment for late-stage Covid, a stage where the virus itself is usually gone but the disease still progresses to acute stages via inflammation, but it looks as though they, the ptb, will fight with all their billions and media privileges backed by the state to prevent ivermectin, a preventative that is cheap, off patent, from becoming protocol in wealthy (for the few) neoliberal nations.

It seems biowarfare depends on controlling big pharma, which willingly succumbs to reap huge (immoral) profits, while using the populace as guinea pigs to perfect techniques, with vaccines dependent on emergency use authorization which, self feelingly, bars mandatory vaccinations thus ensuring the virus perpetuates in pocket populations to innovate successful escape mutations. An airborne virus transmitted by a significant % of asymptomatics, many of whom refuse big pharma’s jabs for various reasons — some political, some ideological, some because of personal health concerns, means we’ll remain divided and sickly as a society, easy prey for fused power. Meanwhile less privileged populations suffer and die with little help from the wealthy.

I was alarmed to read about research fusing anthrax with Covid. Developing effective means to stop ace 2 receptor binding on designer bio weapons facilitates selective use of bio weapons where some are protected and others are vulnerable. I hope I am completely wrong to even contemplate this horror. I did not go into biochemistry as a career in the 1970s because, knowing I was no genius, I was afraid of being tracked into work I could not endorse.

Posted by: suzan | Apr 26 2021 15:57 utc | 125

@ bernard f... that zappa video is fun! thanks!

Posted by: james | Apr 26 2021 16:02 utc | 126

Typo self feedingly, not self feelingly

Posted by: suzan | Apr 26 2021 16:03 utc | 127

@ suzan... thanks for your infrequent but excellent informative posts... that is truly scary... the zappa video is a lot easier to swallow!

Posted by: james | Apr 26 2021 16:12 utc | 128


Posted by: Grieved | Apr 25 2021 21:47 utc | 64

“76 Lelush
You said:
Vaccinating all the population will erase natural immunity from the face of Earth, leaving the population of the whole world dependant on these pharma giant...”

Absolute nonsense. The vaccines, even the mRNA vaccines, depend on both the innate and acquired immune systems to function.

This interpretation reveals lack of understanding of immune science as we know it today.

Posted by: suzan | Apr 26 2021 16:13 utc | 129

Alistair Crooke comments on the incoherence of US foreign policy:

A Tightening Circle of Replacement Politics

It seems that ‘the team’ wants both to wage 5th generation war and to demand (and expect) cooperation from its ‘adversaries’, Alastair Crooke writes.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 26 2021 16:19 utc | 130

@ norwegian... no need to get personal... clearly you are a cheer leader for a particular viewpoint and if others have a different viewpoint it really gets under your skin... i am sorry you feel that way... i would prefer to get along... who is thinking here?? cheers...

Posted by: james | Apr 26 2021 16:21 utc | 131

vk@117 says "And they better hope their mRNA vaccines are good against the new variants (specially the Brazilian and South African ones), because, otherwise, the cadavers will start to pile up on the frozen containers once again."

One problem with US vaccines is that it required much more logistic supports to have mass administration - that it will be very hard and slow to be used in developing countries.

Chinese vaccines is simpler to use and has been exported to over 70 countries, with over 37+ developing countries receiving them free of charge (i.e. Chinese donations).

Of course, the West is accusing China of playing "vaccine diplomacy".

Posted by: d dan | Apr 26 2021 16:40 utc | 132

@ Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 26 2021 16:13 utc | 131

It is a "discussion" where one side covers their ears and screams about how stupid we are and we are trolls and must shut-up and have our evil comments deleted.

I did not see any posts which were inappropriate.
But it is a bit of beating a dead horse.

Posted by: jared | Apr 26 2021 16:41 utc | 133

Where is Karlof1?
I miss his comments

Posted by: ld | Apr 26 2021 16:44 utc | 134

It seems like Putin is toying with Biden on the matter of the "Summit" meeting.
The feedback seems a bit convoluted.

I think the idea would be that: We will check back with you when NS2 is completed.

Posted by: jared | Apr 26 2021 16:45 utc | 135

Make no mistake: Business interests trump public health.

"Abstract: For capitalist governments, maintaining conditions conducive to the profit-making interests of business owners and investors is the top priority; public health, only so far as it is necessary to maintain an adequate supply of labor, is not. Understanding this helps explain (i) why many capitalist governments have, in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, exhibited a high tolerance for public health catastrophes that could have been averted if only even mild measures had been taken to temporarily subordinate business interests to the public good, and (ii) why countries led by people-centered governments have performed better in protecting public health against the pestilence of COVID-19 than capitalist governments as a whole. This article demonstrates the second point empirically, via an analysis of cross-sectional country-level data bearing on the performance of people-centered vs. capital-centered governments in protecting the health of their citizens in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. "

Posted by: arby | Apr 26 2021 16:57 utc | 136

Posted by: ld | Apr 26 2021 16:44 utc | 135

Karlof1 was vacationing in the East last time I heard. He was around for a while a week or so ago. I think he is expected back in May.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 26 2021 17:21 utc | 137

suzan | Apr 26 2021 16:13 utc | 130

I read this before LeLush put his posts up. A "readable" (ie. for a non-specialist) version of ADE (Antibody Dependent Enhancement) and possible (but NOT probable) long term problems about immunity. I think this is what he (L) was talking about. Admittedly he exaggerated.

The writer says that for the Vaccine "industry": the burden of proof rests on the shoulders of the vaccine industry to demonstrate that ADE will not rear its ugly head in the near term or the far term. Which seems fair enough.

https://alethonews.com/2021/04/18/is-a-coronavirus-vaccine-a-ticking-time-bomb/

Any comment? (Go slow on the technical, please !)

******

One of the major "problems" associated with Covid is the ability of Governments, Government Health "advisors and "experts - to lie.
There have been many examples, from "Falsli Fauci", through Hancock or Fergusson (GB) Swann (N. Ireland) and a whole load of others, particularly politicians and paid-for specialists and MSM experts. If one got it wrong it could have been a mistake, if twice, then it could have been a co-oincidence, Three times and it is a trend (more than that it is deliberate, isn't it?).

Once a liar always a liar.

Once someone has been found to be lying then the logical thing is to look for "where" they have lied previously. If this is on multiple occasions then the whole edifice is cast into doubt. The following question is "why did they do it"?.

Profit is one thing, but other motives have been included in the sceptics basket (Great reset, military covert actions, dumbskulls and evil etc.)
The reaction is to throw the whole lot out, irrespective of the merits of a few. So we end up with the present situation. Relying on pre-outbreak information on which to base a reasonably coherent assesment of the totality, taking into account new information (which may have been compromised by lying). In this case, in spite of lockdowns, masks, police repression, tracking and suchlike, what this info entails for each person individually. For many this becomes a rejection of "orders" and also the authority that .......lied.

****

PS: Once a liar always a liar. Since they all read from the same script I can leave this in the singular.



Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 26 2021 17:43 utc | 138

@ Posted by: arby | Apr 26 2021 16:57 utc | 137

Interesting post.
Do you have any concerns regarding the accuracy of the data used?
For example: US @ 150 deaths and DPRK at 1 death?
Do you feel that the US death rate due to covid is fairly accurate or likely understated?

Back of Napkin, I see the CDC is stating 570M deaths attributed to covid on a poplation of 330MM or 0.17% in a little over 1 year. Which might be gauged against 2.9MM deaths in the US in 2020.

Posted by: jared | Apr 26 2021 17:47 utc | 139

This is a bit gauling regarding Gates argues against waving of patent protection on vacines for covid?

https://www.rt.com/news/522163-gates-refuses-patent-sharing/

doth protest too much

me thinks

Posted by: jared | Apr 26 2021 18:06 utc | 140

CDC reported

2.9MM deaths in the US in 2020.
2.85MM deaths in the US in 2019.

Posted by: jared | Apr 26 2021 18:10 utc | 141

Another hatecrime being commited against an asian, victim now in coma.
Media seems to have a bit of a problem writing about it, because the perpetrator is always black in these attacks.

Head-kicking attack in New York leaves Asian man, 61, in coma, sparks hate-crime investigation
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/04/26/asian-hate-crime-new-york-harlem/

Where are the Asian Lives Matters?

Posted by: Zanon | Apr 26 2021 18:11 utc | 142

Posted by: jared | Apr 26 2021 17:47 utc | 140

Gowans gives the sources for the statistics at the end. He also states how he came up with numbers for North Korea.
I have no trouble with Gowan's research and honesty.

Posted by: arby | Apr 26 2021 18:16 utc | 143

@ Jared--

Here is where Gowans got his numbers--

Mortality Analyses

They are saying 1.8% for the US.

Posted by: arby | Apr 26 2021 18:38 utc | 144

@ Posted by: arby | Apr 26 2021 18:38 utc | 145

Arby, I grabbed some data from the list (nice link, Johns Hopkins, Thanks.):

First, the good:
Eritrea 3,605 10 0.3% nan
Tanzania 509 21 4.1% 0.04
Vietnam 2,843 35 1.2% 0.04
Taiwan 1,100 12 1.1% 0.05
Burundi 3,853 6 0.2% 0.05
Congo 10,678 144 1.3% 0.17
Thailand 55,460 140 0.3% 0.20
Timor-Leste 1,897 3 0.2% 0.23
China 102,384 4,845 4.7% 0.35
Cambodia 9,975 74 0.7% 0.45
Singapore 61,006 30 0.0% 0.53
New Zealand 2,601 26 1.0% 0.53
Brunei 223 3 1.3% 0.69
Burkina Faso 13,263 156 1.2% 0.77
Uganda 41,655 341 0.8% 0.77
Niger 5,191 191 3.7% 0.82
Benin 7,720 97 1.3% 0.82
Tajikistan 13,308 90 0.7% 0.97
Sierra Leone 4,044 79 2.0% 1.01
Nigeria 164,719 2,062 1.3% 1.03
South Sudan 10,532 114 1.1% 1.03
Chad 4,770 169 3.5% 1.06
Guinea 21,953 140 0.6% 1.10
Côte d'Ivoire 45,852 282 0.6% 1.10
New Guinea 10,670 102 1.0% 1.16
Mauritius 1,206 16 1.3% 1.26

Now, the bad (small sample):
France 5,559,121 103,017 1.9% 153.62
United States 32,077,178 572,200 1.8% 174.32

No these people at Johns Hopkins are a lot smarter than I (clearly).
But does that data appear surprising (as in some factor is being over-looked)?

Posted by: jared | Apr 26 2021 19:11 utc | 145

Ooops. Sorry, it lost the column formatting.

Posted by: jared | Apr 26 2021 19:12 utc | 146

Zanon @143:

A comment that I noticed had not yet been deleted from Twitter in response to a NYPD post of concerning the crime: "One must question...given the current state of affairs...why an Asian man would venture into East Harlem? By downplaying the obvious connotations...which really should be loudly stated facts...doesn't the media share responsibility?"

I do not provide a link as I am sure the post will be deleted as soon as Jack Dorsey or one of his minions notices it.

Due to my international experience and knowledge of languages I was often offered the honor of assisting with orientation for international students at university. University administration would explicitly order us to not mention or even suggest that the newly arrived foreign students steer clear of Black neighborhoods.

Every society has unstated rules and expected behavior and it is part of the duty of "English as a Second or Other Language (ESOL)" instructors and orientation staff to instruct the newcomers in these things. For example, it wasn't so long ago that in China (and much of the rest of Asia) traffic lights were considered just suggestions. It is the ESOL instructor's responsibility to work into a lesson the fact that traffic lights are deadly serious in the US.

One unstated rule in America that 100% of the population knows and lives by is "Stay out of Black neighborhoods." The very "wokest" of white middle class Americans will lie and deny it but they would never set foot in Harlem, East Saint Louis or most parts of Oakland. To the extent that they can even Black Americans live by this rule. Tragically (and it always ends in tragedy) university administrations specifically require that no mention is ever made of this one particular unwritten rule of American life to the fresh international students, even though those very same administrators themselves would never venture into those neighborhoods. Sadly, all the young international students know about American society is the "public face" that they see in mass media, and in this "public face" Black Americans are always victims of violence and never the perpetrators. The result? Curious international students, blissfully unaware of the danger, wander in their explorations of the city that is to be their home for a few years into neighborhoods that no American would willingly enter. They frequently become the victims of violent attacks.

Of course, then everyone demands "What were they doing in that neighborhood anyway? Are they stupid?"

No, "woke" shitheads lied to those naive international students and the kids believed them.

In all Chinese cities even a small child can safely walk about at any hour of the day or night and not worry about being attacked. It is no surprise that a Chinese person only in the US for a short while also believes the lies that Americans tell about themselves and never suspects that there are places in major cities where their lives are in danger if they venture there.

If my post offends the reader's "wokeness" then that reader needs to know that they are personally responsible for this Asian man being in a coma right now. You enable this violence.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 26 2021 19:35 utc | 147

Thanks to all for the great links. So much new information to absorb. This will keep me busy for the rest of the day.

So glad Karlof1 is ok. Thanks for that.
Happy Jimmy Dore is back on line.

Posted by: ld | Apr 26 2021 19:36 utc | 148

per Jimmy Dore.
The notification was :"This site does not exist"
pretty ominous. I have never seen that specific notification.
I typed in several fake sites and only alternative selections appeared.
A warning perhaps?

Posted by: ld | Apr 26 2021 19:45 utc | 149

Posted by: jared | Apr 26 2021 19:11 utc | 146

Jared, the jist of Gowan's article is pointing out how much better Socialist countries have handled covid vs Capitalist countries and why he thinks that is.
The numbers are gathered from a fairly reliable source. I see no reason to doubt his logic or facts.

Posted by: arby | Apr 26 2021 20:05 utc | 150

Recently this bar hosted an extended discussion of the Kennedy assasination. Some stories are going to have staying power. Some stories are even important. Even more important than the pleasure of banter.

I have in my acquaintance an epidemiologist. Not a superstar but a working professional and professor. And a neighbor. Her verdict is everyone in the field has been wrong this time. And has been wrong badly and has been wrong over and over. Barflies may operate at even lower standards and still be acceptable drinking companions.

Usually it is very bad form to cite personal acquaintance. Hope this was an allowable exception. No names.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 26 2021 21:30 utc | 151

So the dogs are barking again. Every time NZ won't be told what to do with foreign policy they come out of their lairs, usually inside neocon [war criminal supporting] stink tanks.This time the appropriately named Wodrow Wilson stink tank, and what a stooge he was. These usual suspects, calling themselves names like 'resident fellow' always write 'opinion' that coincidently echoes the prevailing view in Washington and Tel Aviv. Occasionally an elected 'representative' or member of the executive will engage in public megaphone diplomacy when the issue is of vital importance. Sometimes they all come out at once flooding the airways and newspapers. This time they have come out because NZ won't condemn China sufficiently or often enough for them.

They came out big time when the Muldoon government recognised Palestine. Politicians from the US, Australia and 'opinion' writers together in a 'full court' display. They came out over the NZ ban on Nuclear armed and powered warships.They tut tutted when France blew up a protest ship in Auckland harbour murdering a crewman, but did nothing to support their 'ally.' They flooded the media about Sadam Hussain's non existent WMDs. Then they really came out big time when NZ's PM Helen Clark refused to participate in their illegal war against Iraq. They publicly bullied NZ to write Netanyahu a letter of apology for NZ's vote in the UN and for expelling the Israeli 'diplomat' following the second case of being caught forging NZ passports and using them for murdering a Palestinian in Dubai.

Now as their power and prestige is waining the want to round up NZ for their next crusade.

They can never accept NZ is a sovereign country and can determine its own foreign policy. For all the hypocritical posturing about 'our values' by five eyes politicians they can't accept NZ actually has its own values.

It's a slippery slope for NZ. Next they will want NZ to condemn the ICC for daring to look at Israeli war crimes in Occupied Palestine.

https://johnmenadue.com/australias-rejection-of-international-criminal-court-decision-on-palestine/

Posted by: Paul | Apr 26 2021 21:40 utc | 152

Karlinsky & Kobak (preprint, January 29, 2021, revised April 11, 2021) have collected mortality data for 89 countries (out of ~200) and argue that excess mortality in 2020/21 is a good estimate for the “true” number of COVID-19 deaths. Here’s what they found.

Top 20 countries (out of 89) by “true” number of COVID-19 deaths as percentage of their populations:

     Country          "True"  Official  Undercount
                      deaths  deaths    factor
                      (%)     (%)
Peru 0.450 0.170 2.7 Mexico 0.320 0.136 2.3 Bulgaria 0.310 0.183 1.7 Russia 0.300 0.058 5.2 Lithuania 0.290 0.129 2.3 Ecuador 0.280 0.099 2.9 Bolivia 0.260 0.090 2.8 North Macedonia 0.260 0.137 1.9 San Marino 0.260 0.216 1.2 Armenia 0.240 0.110 2.2 Czechia 0.240 0.185 1.3 Portugal 0.240 0.163 1.5 Serbia 0.230 0.065 3.6 South Africa 0.230 0.094 2.5 Bosnia 0.220 0.124 1.8 Slovakia 0.220 0.132 1.7 Albania 0.210 0.042 5.1 Poland 0.210 0.123 1.7 Romania 0.210 0.092 2.2 Moldova 0.200 0.111 1.8

Top 20 countries (out of 89) by undercount factor:

     Country       Undercount  "True"  Official
                   factor      deaths  deaths
                               (%)     (%)
Tajikistan 100.0 0.099 0.001 Nicaragua 53.0 0.120 0.002 Uzbekistan 29.0 0.054 0.002 Belarus 14.0 0.060 0.004 Egypt 13.0 0.089 0.007 Kazakhstan 10.0 0.170 0.017 El Salvador 10.0 0.120 0.011 Azerbaijan 5.7 0.150 0.027 Russia 5.2 0.300 0.058 Albania 5.1 0.210 0.042 Kyrgyzstan 5.0 0.110 0.022 Serbia 3.6 0.230 0.065 Ecuador 2.9 0.280 0.099 Bolivia 2.8 0.260 0.090 Peru 2.7 0.450 0.170 South Africa 2.5 0.230 0.094 Iran 2.4 0.071 0.029 Mexico 2.3 0.320 0.136 Lithuania 2.3 0.290 0.129 Armenia 2.2 0.240 0.110

Top 20 countries (out of 89) by excess mortality (increase over 5-year average mortality):

     Country          Excess
                      mortality
                      (%)
Peru 114 Ecuador 62 Bolivia 55 Mexico 52 San Marino 34 Nicaragua 31 Albania 28 Armenia 28 Kosovo 28 Brazil 28 Tajikistan 27 Azerbaijan 27 South Africa 27 North Macedonia 27 Russia 25 Kazakhstan 23 Kyrgyzstan 22 Slovakia 22 Portugal 22 Czechia 22

Again, only 89 countries have published recent mortality data, so many populous countries are missing from the analysis: China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Vietnam, DR Congo, Turkey, etc. Still, a rough estimate for the total number of COVID-19 deaths can be made:

Summing up the excess mortality estimates across all countries in our dataset gives 3.3 million excess deaths. In contrast, summing up the official COVID-19 death counts gives only 2.1 million deaths, corresponding to the global undercount ratio of 1.56. It is likely that among the countries for which we could not obtain the data the undercount is much higher (Watson et al., 2020b,a; Mwananyanda et al., 2021), so we believe that 1.56 is a conservative lower bound on the global undercount ratio of COVID-19 deaths.

According to Johns Hopkins University data, the official number of COVID-19 deaths globally is currently 3.11 million, suggesting that the “true” number of COVID-19 deaths globally is at least 4.85 million, or 0.063% of the world population.

Posted by: S | Apr 26 2021 21:52 utc | 153

Here is a vote of confidence in US Treasury Bonds and paper currency:

"It was another good week for gold which hit seven-week highs of $US1,798 (A$2,323) an oz last Wednesday, while Bitcoin was off 9 per cent to $US49,672 for the week. Of note was the Chinese government clearing the way for an import of around 150 tonnes of gold ($US8bn) sourced from Australia, South Africa and Switzerland."

I guess China can pay for it in US$, they have to get rid of it one way or another. They may as well buy an appreciating asset.

Posted by: Paul | Apr 26 2021 22:46 utc | 154


@ Posted by: Mina | Apr 26 2021 9:02 utc | 91

Mina, I appreciate most of your postings but this is misinformation:

"..the fact that the countries that have had these stronger new strains were the same which participated in the mass vaccination trials."

The Kent variant of concern (VOC) emerged before vaccination began in the UK, in early fall of 2020. The South African VOC, recognized first by a tourist flying home to Japan who was tested in a Japanese airport, emerged before vaccination began in SA mid to late January. The Brazilian VOC emerged before mass vaccination began there. India is now said to have a triple mutant VOC. There has been little vaccination done there, the physical measures have been almost nonexistent for a large sector of the population which struggles on a daily basis to avoid malnutrition.

The data seems to support VOCs emerging in populations where the virus reproduces without much hindrance from preventives, either physical measures like personal protective equipment, test, trace & quarrantine, or medical interventions like ivermectin. I'm unclear as to whether enhancing one's immune system with Vit D, Zinc, & plant-based substances can completely stop virus transmission or if viral loads are merely reduced to asymptomatic or mild infection status.

(am slowly working through this thread)


Posted by: suzan | Apr 26 2021 23:51 utc | 155

@126 & 130 suzan + Stonebird @139

That's a very compelling scenario, thanks for writing it all out. Could you enlarge a little on the anthrax potential you mention? And I would echo Stonebird, please to go slow on the technical as much as possible ;)

What I understood from Lelush's comment was the description of a pattern that seemed very familiar, namely that a profit-making corporate entity would seek to develop a captive, repeat customer base, and if it could create an addiction or a dependency for its product, then so much the better.

I'm having to skim through the biological technicalities of all these discussions, but patterns of capitalist predation seem pretty simple to grasp. Regulatory capture, misleading labeling, manufacturing consent, falsifying weights and measures, creating urgency, fear and desire - all of these standard patterns of corporate sociopathic behavior are abundantly evident in the response of the US to the pandemic.

That's what got my attention, the thought of how Big Pharma might be strategizing. We've seen it with tobacco, we see it with heroin, we've seen it with Monsanto and its patented seeds, and we sense it in the dreams of people like Bill Gates. And we see nothing but kindred spirit in the covert agencies of the US. Across that capitalist, imperialist board, we see absolute lack of morality, and an unlimited imagination for pursuing the unthinkable.

Why would a pharmaceutical company not dream of enslaving its consumer base into dependency if it could achieve this somehow?

In other words, maybe Lelush is dead wrong scientifically, but he resonates completely with corporate desires. Or so it seemed to me.

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 27 2021 0:06 utc | 156

@ Grieved | Apr 27 2021 0:06 utc | 159 who wrote
"
Why would a pharmaceutical company not dream of enslaving its consumer base into dependency if it could achieve this somehow?
"

This is already a well worn path with tobacco, GM anything and the suppression of non-drug alternatives to mental health issues as I continue to assert my anecdotal example of such.....AND, the biggest enslavement of them all, global private finance that sets the tone for others to emulate.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 27 2021 1:09 utc | 157

Western capitalism has always had a great fondness for drugs, and other things that are "needed" not just wanted. Hence the fondness for grabbing the local supply of whatever people need (water, food, power, etc.) But especially drugs, they have such a high markup, and nature provides all kinds of them for free: coffee, tea, sugar, alcohol, cocaine, opium, and a loooong list of others (yohimbe, kat, mescalin, cannabis, tobacco ...)

Forces of Habit, Drugs and the Making of the Modern World

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 27 2021 1:32 utc | 158

Paul #157

Here is a vote of confidence in US Treasury Bonds and paper currency:

"It was another good week for gold which hit seven-week highs of $US1,798 (A$2,323) an oz last Wednesday, while Bitcoin was off 9 per cent to $US49,672 for the week. Of note was the Chinese government clearing the way for an import of around 150 tonnes of gold ($US8bn) sourced from Australia, South Africa and Switzerland."

I guess China can pay for it in US$, they have to get rid of it one way or another. They may as well buy an appreciating asset.


Looking at this data set I can see why China continues to purchase bullion.

Posted by:

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 27 2021 3:14 utc | 159

@ suzan | Apr 26 2021 16:13 utc | 130


The vaccines, even the mRNA vaccines, depend on both the innate and acquired immune systems to function.
This interpretation reveals lack of understanding of immune science as we know it today.

With due respect, the question is perhaps not anymore on efficiency .

As I wrote above, my team is now a "cluster", I need a negative test to be able to go back to work and get my paycheck.
Probably soon to be "vaccinated"

WHY is Covid-19 like NBC and smoking legal ?

Posted by: Bernard F. | Apr 27 2021 3:35 utc | 160

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 27 2021 3:14 utc | 162

Thanks for the link. As an Australian you may be interested in this.

Westpac is in trouble too this is from yesterdays Australian Financial Review:

"Shares in Westpac Banking Corporation are up despite the bank announcing a $282 million hit to after-tax profits as the cost of customer refunds and exiting non-core activities mount.
The bank revealed on Monday cash earnings and statutory net profit would be lower, with the cost of additional provisions for customer refunds, payments and litigation running to $220 million alone."

I believe Westpac wants to sell its NZ and Pacific operations, that may account for the share price rise. The trouble is it may not receive government approval for the sale or they may not be able to find a buyer.

Perhaps the Chinese might make an offer in these days of free markets and deregulated banks? Ask Paul Keating, the great deregulator, who learnt economics at the feet of Jack Lang.

Just joking.

Posted by: Paul | Apr 27 2021 5:26 utc | 161

Paul #162

Joking, christ I almost choked on my emu burger.

Westpac selling to China - I would like to see that. Scumo might have no say as those are external to Australian territory but then scumo would invent anything to dump on China.

I am still enjoying some fine discounted shiraz though, so I raise a toast to the Chinese middle class suffering without a fine aussie shiraz. I am thinking of you comrades as I struggle at the front to protect australian vignerons.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 27 2021 8:10 utc | 163

Can anyone tell me why the US Coast Guards were patrolling in the Persian Gulf?.

(Three Iranian fast Patrol boats "harrassed" two US CC ones along with what I take to be support ship. Newly reported incident)

I always thought that the US "ended" somewhere in the Atlantic or Pacific - even if exactly "where" that is is somewhat confused. Is the US running out of ships? Or don't they have enough that work at one time?

Asking for a friend.

**
Quote. According to published information, on April 2 this year, IRGC ships surrounded U.S. Coast Guard ships, and the tense situation lasted for about three hours.......Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Navy confirmed the truth of the information.

Three IRGC battleships and a support ship made maneuvers and surrounded two Coast Guard ships that patrolled international waters in the southern Persian Gulf. It came to a point where the American ship Wrangell undertook a severe maneuver to avoid a collision with one of the Iranian warships......U.S. military ships have issued several warnings to Iranian boats in the area, but no response has followed. According to the U.S. Navy, the actions of the Iranian thieves were unprofessional and dangerous.

Iran says that the IRGC’s actions were not strange or untimely; on the contrary – the U.S. warships activated Iranian forces as the two U.S. ships invaded Iran’s territorial waters.

"Well, shiver me timbers"

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 27 2021 8:18 utc | 164

@ S

How the hell do these guys even calculate the "true" death?

Mathematician genius? Taking stuff outta their asses? Applying the western model to the rest of the world?

Posted by: Smith | Apr 27 2021 8:19 utc | 165

oldhippie #152

Her verdict is everyone in the field has been wrong this time. And has been wrong badly and has been wrong over and over. Barflies may operate at even lower standards and still be acceptable drinking companions.

Thank you for that personal story from your neighbour. I fully agree with her, wrong and then wrong and then lost in the vax spinners web. I have the utmost respect for epidemiologists having worked very close with them at length designing health response systems with Indigenous Australians. I can see that there are fundamental fractures in the application of simple science in this covid story. The blind rejection of simple medicinals even when demonstrated to be high probability effective for zero risk is the most obvious act of ignorance in a litany of ignorances.

As a barfly I get that I am wrong from time to time and still I keep trying as the company and the references (and booze) is worth it plus I learn heaps and the monitor never shouts back when I curse some dam fool comment.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 27 2021 9:31 utc | 166

Grieved @ 157

Why would a pharmaceutical company not dream of enslaving its consumer base into dependency if it could achieve this somehow

Come on Grieved, dream, you ask? Are you going to start using wiggle words like our friend, suzan?

In 1996 Big Pharma introduced and aggressively marketed and promoted the highly addictive OxyContin, which rapidly became the leading drug of abuse in the USA.

One of the cornerstones of Purdue's marketing plan was the use of sophisticated marketing data to influence physicians’ prescribing. Drug companies compile prescriber profiles on individual physicians—detailing the prescribing patterns of physicians nationwide—in an effort to influence doctors’ prescribing habits. Through these profiles, a drug company can identify the highest and lowest prescribers of particular drugs in a single zip code, county, state, or the entire country.21 One of the critical foundations of Purdue's marketing plan for OxyContin was to target the physicians who were the highest prescribers for opioids across the country.1,12–17,22 The resulting database would help identify physicians with large numbers of chronic-pain patients. Unfortunately, this same database would also identify which physicians were simply the most frequent prescribers of opioids and, in some cases, the least discriminate prescribers

Of course, as for so many other scurrilous activities, covid kinda swept the devastation under the rug, albeit creating an even more fertile environment for the harvesting of even more massive profits.

Posted by: john | Apr 27 2021 9:41 utc | 167

@ uncle tungsten | Apr 27 2021 8:03 utc | 163
Hot! (and don't smile George...)

+++

The blind rejection of simple medicinals even when demonstrated to be high probability effective for zero risk is the most obvious act of ignorance in a litany of ignorances.

Honest physicians and epidemiologists as IHU team in Marseille / France are ignorantly mocked.
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/

Posted by: Bernard F. | Apr 27 2021 9:52 utc | 168

Stonebird @165: "Is the US running out of ships? Or don't they have enough that work at one time?"

Very good guess! Or perhaps you are a lawyer and already knew the answer to your question?

The empire has been struggling to build up it navy to a force of 350 ships for some time, and even that amount is insufficient to meet the demands being placed on the American navy. Estimates are that about 440 ships are needed to maintain the empire's thalassocracy. The problem is not just the money that the empire can supposedly print to its heart's content due to the dollar being the world reserve currency, but America's industrial capacity is simply insufficient to build enough ships to get to the 350 count, much less the 440 one. Furthermore, throwing money at the problem cannot solve it in the short to mid term because the inadequacy of the empire's domestic industry extends all up and down the supply chains, right down to mining and smelting enough metals to make the ships with. This is even before we address the fact that America lacks the skilled industrial workforce to make any of this happen (take a look at the "baristas" at your local fast food coffee chain or the "content creators" for various clickbait websites and try to imagine them machining parts for warships!). Then there is the difficulty the Navy has in recruiting enough non-retarded, non-obese young people to crew the ships.

Short of a generalized industrial renaissance in the US it is a physical impossibility for America to maintain its thalassocracy. The very best marketing and narrative manufacturing in the world cannot make that fantasy into reality.

America's current naval forces are dangerously overextended and understaffed, and that is on top of the incompetence that has come to prevail across all aspects of American society, including in the military. This is why even the Coast Guard is being pressed into service for naval operations. This condition is obviously unsustainable as the extended deployments mean more wear and tear on equipment and personnel, which in the near to mid term will mean even fewer ships available for the empire's maritime bullying.

The less delusional among the empire's strategists are well aware of this force-projection decline. The empire is facing a use-it-or-lose-it inflection point. Conditions will not improve for the empire if it delays, so that makes the probability of open conflicts more likely sooner rather than later.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 27 2021 11:54 utc | 169

@Smith #166:

How the hell do these guys even calculate the "true" death?

It’s literally one click away. There are also some useful charts there.

The reason I’ve put the word true in quotes is not that I think their results are bullshit⁠—I don’t⁠—it’s that I don’t want to come off as too supportive just yet. It’s a preprint, after all.

Posted by: S | Apr 27 2021 13:01 utc | 170

@ Posted by: S | Apr 26 2021 21:52 utc | 154

Interesting. A worthy effort - World Mortality Dataset.
Good contribution to the discussion.
Graphs are interesting and surprising -
Jamaica and Japan for example saw no impact from the virus.
New Zealand benefitted from the virus.

I am curious about the "extrapolation" of 2015-2019 - I would have though a simple average (% of population) and the deviation should be reported in sigma's


The data are sourced from the World Mortality Dataset. Excess mortality is computed relative to the baseline obtained using linear extrapolation of the 2015–19 trend. In each subplot in the figure below, gray lines are 2015–19, black line is baseline for 2020, red line is 2020, blue line is 2021. Countries are sorted by the % increase over the baseline.

Red number: excess mortality starting from the first officially reported Covid-19 death.
Gray number: excess mortality as a % of the annual baseline deaths.
Black number: excess mortality per 100,000 population.
Blue number: ratio to the daily reported Covid-19 deaths over the same period (sourced from JHU).

Again, good info. I hope there will be further analysis of this.

Posted by: jared | Apr 27 2021 14:03 utc | 171

@ Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 26 2021 17:43 utc | 139

Re potential problems with the Covid19 vaccines and ADE, antibody dependent enhancement, there is cause for concern of this as there is for other viral infections.. (Sorry, didn’t read your link as the date was Aug 2021 and at a glance it seemed better to tell you what I understand than spend time reading another article)

ADE means that upon reinfection the patient suffers more severe disease than the first time. This is a serious problem with Dengue, for example. It was also a problem with early stages of SARs vaccine development which was abandoned at an early stage of due to this problem. Covid 19 vaccine developers claim to have learned from these SARS failures.

What happens with ADE is neutralizing antibodies either are no longer present or no longer function as previously, in the case of covid that would be no longer blocking ace 2 receptor entry into cells by covid 2 spike proteins. In extreme ADE, only non-neutralizing antibodies are present (no neautralizing antibodies present) and these function to facilitate, enhance, cellular infection instead of blocking cellular entry.

In the development of covid 19 vaccines the known mechanisms which led to this bad outcome in attempted SARS vaccine development were avoided as much as possible.

(One exception may be an adenovirus vaccine, the Ox-Astro, which did not use a fixed form of code for the spike protein inserted into the vector, making it probably less stable. But the primary problem with the adenovirus vaccines at present in the ‘west’ appears to be dirty vaccines, vaccines contaminated with human DNA fragments due to shoddy filtration procedures. Sputnik V representatives have offered to share with the world what they claim is their superior filtration techniques.)

While personally I would rather live in a world practicing the precautionary principle, that is not where we live now. Vaccine developers claim that all the pre trial and animal trials showed no evidence of ADE in Covid 19 vaccines. We all know it takes years to actually know this so we can take their words for what they are and hope for the best in an otherwise critical situation that requires much beyond vaccines to surface again.

The best assurances offered us regarding the ADE issue today is the record as of date — out of millions of vaccinated most have reduced or no symptoms.

In the words of someone who works in the field:

First, there were strong indications during all the vaccine trials that when it comes to cellular (T-cell) response, it is strongly skewed toward a non-VAH/ADE pathway (Th1 vs. Th2). Consistent with this data, there were no reports of VAH/ADE so far.

Second, what is no less (and in my opinion even more) important – every vaccine we have will, with a very high degree of likelihood, protect you from severe disease and death. It is becoming more and more clear that whether you get seriously ill or not is contingent less so on neutralizing antibody activity, but much rather on your T-cell response. Since all vaccines elicit a robust cellular response which we know is longer lived and is less sensitive to viral mutations due to the presence of many more T-cell than antibody binding sites on SARS-CoV-2’s Spike protein, it is safe to say that getting vaccinated will keep people out of the hospital or worse, a key of getting out of this pandemic. Alex Beribisky

Again, emphasis on the importance of maintaining healthy immune system so that T cell responses are functioning.

Of course, no one knows what will happen in the future. If the spike proteins mutate enough to escape current neutralizing triggers induced by the mRNA vaccines, then big pharma appears to have captured the populace for mining because the only other way to stop the pandemic is to go to a society model that values life over profit and that would require an unlikely turn of events as “Once a liar always a liar” has its own special enhancement techniques.

Posted by: suzan | Apr 27 2021 15:58 utc | 172

@ Posted by: Grieved | Apr 27 2021 0:06 utc | 157

Here’s a short blurb on the subject:

Corona-thrax The recently obtained documents reveal that the BSL-3 lab that is part of UPMC’s Center for Vaccine Research is conducting eyebrow-raising research involving combining SARS-CoV-2 with Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax infection. Per the documents, anthrax is being genetically engineered by a researcher, whose name was redacted in the release, so that it will express the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, which is the part of the coronavirus that allows it to gain access into human cells. The researcher asserts that “the [genetically engineered anthrax/SARS-CoV-2 hybrid] can [be] used as a host strain to make SARS-CoV-2 recombinant S protein vaccine,” and the creation of said vaccine is the officially stated purpose of the research project. The documents were produced by the University of Pittsburgh’s Institutional Biosafety Committee (IBC), which held an emergency meeting on June 22nd of this year to “discuss specific protocols involving research with the coronavirus,” which included a vote on the aforementioned proposal. Edward Hammond, the former director of the Sunshine Project, an organization that opposed chemical and biological weapons and the expansion of “dual use” biodefense/bioweapon research, obtained the documents.

Look up, “Engineering Contagion: UPMC, Corona-Thrax And “The Darkest Winter” by Whitney Webb for sources of information.


Sorry, this is all the time I can spend now.

Posted by: suzan | Apr 27 2021 15:59 utc | 173

Ref Ivermectin, WHO did NOT look at the studies about its prophylactic use
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/pune/ivermectin-should-only-be-used-to-treat-covid-19-within-clinical-trials-who-7253404/
"The panel did not look at the use of ivermectin to prevent Covid-19, which is outside of the scope of current guidelines, read a statement issued by WHO."
What we know for sure is that the Chinese vaccine does not work on the Brazilian strain (cf. Chili results) and that AZ does not work on the South African one. The Indian strain has characteristics of the two.

Posted by: Mina | Apr 27 2021 16:02 utc | 174

William Gruff | Apr 27 2021 11:54 utc | 170

I said it a bit "tongue in cheek".
That it is becoming a reality doesn't really surprise me.

The Chinese are boasting that they already have 33 more ships than the Americans. ouch.
The US really is having to use USCG ships everywhere (ie incl. near Venezuela etc). But the new Motivational ad for the Coast guards now reads "Join the coast guards and see the world", but I guess being underweight and under-armed doesn't fit the bill for projecting power.

Seriously though - have they taken a leaf out of the Chinese playbook, who have been using Coast Guard vessels as they can "provoke" without necessarily causing an all out war? (They also use fishing boats)

USCG Cutter Hamilton begins its north bound straits transit into the #BlackSea, after working with @USNavy #USSRoosevelt in #AegeanSea. Hamilton will be working with @NATO Allies & partners in the region. #Triservicemaritimestrategy

****

To paraphrase or maybe ruin Shakespeare; "Once more, into the Black Sea, my friends, or close the strait up, with our empires' Cutters....."
Henry V, Act III, Scene I

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 27 2021 16:06 utc | 175

uncle tungsten @Apr27 8:03 #163

"F*ck George Bush" is an awesome rant. A must see.

Note: his ire is really directed at the "shit libs" (his term) that are rehabilitating GW Bush.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 27 2021 16:20 utc | 176

@mina #175
So COVID is going to be like the regular flu: vaccine is literally just rolling the dice to see if the vaccine makers guessed right as to which strain is being protected against - much less the end user.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 27 2021 16:43 utc | 177

Pretty interesting preliminary US Census results: The Hill on the US Census 2020

This Census marks the tenth straight reapportionment process that Pennsylvania has lost a seat. For New York, the losing streak stands at eight, and for Illinois it’s at nine.

On the flip side, four of the six states that will gain seats — Texas, Colorado, North Carolina and Florida — are in the Sun Belt. Texas has gained at least one seat in each of the last eight reapportionment cycles, dating back to the 1950 Census. Florida has gained a seat in each of the last 12 reapportionments.

To put it another way: After the 1940 Census, New York held 45 seats in the House of Representatives, the same size as the combined delegations of California, Texas and Florida. In the next Congress, New York’s delegation will have 11 fewer members than Texas’s alone.

...

California gained at least one seat in every decade since it joined the Union in 1850, at least until the 2010 Census paused their delegation at 53. But the combination of low immigration rates and high domestic out-migration now means the Golden State is losing a seat for the first time in its history.

...

The population of the United States grew by just 7.4 percent in the last decade, its second-slowest rate in any decade since the first Census was taken back in 1790. The only other decade with slower growth? The 1930s.

Those two decades — the 1930s and the one that just ended — have the same thing in common: An economic catastrophe at the beginning that took years to play out.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 27 2021 16:46 utc | 178

I think for people who really want to be vaccinated (at risk, old, etc) it is important to make a decision depending on the geography. Mayotte (a French "territory", i.e. colony, has been vaccinating with Pfizer since the end of January although SA announced the 'little problem' officially only on 8 Feb)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55975052
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-mayotte-idUSKBN29R25O
https://www.mayotte.ars.sante.fr/coronavirus-covid-19-le-vaccin-pfizer-biontech-est-efficace-et-vous-protege-des-formes-graves-de-la

It is always very informative to listen to the "journal de l'outre-mer" on French governmental radios, you get an overview of the caribbeans, but also reunion, St Pierre et Miquelon, Mayotte, etc.

Posted by: Mina | Apr 27 2021 18:11 utc | 179

@ Posted by: S | Apr 26 2021 21:52 utc | 154

Here's the data for United States as posted as World Mortality Dataset

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/cx8rxhx21ude9xamnc9gp/World-Mortality.xlsx?dl=0&rlkey=9pdzwdb3sgjetrdv70mrpfuhj

Full dataset on GitHub
https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality

To look at it, the affect was significant - increased deaths through 2020.
So the remaining question I would have is (regarding the U.S.):
How would we no that the data is accurate - as in not massaged?

Posted by: jared | Apr 27 2021 19:29 utc | 180

suzan | Apr 27 2021 15:58 utc | 173

Thank you very much for your reply. (I'm a bit late answering, as I also had things to do
at a set time, sorry)

We all know it takes years to actually know this so we can take their words for what they are and hope for the best in an otherwise critical situation that requires much beyond vaccines to surface again..... If the spike proteins mutate enough to escape current neutralizing triggers induced by the mRNA vaccines, then big pharma appears to have captured the populace for mining because the only other way to stop the pandemic is to go to a society model that values life over profit

This is what I am worried about; the future mutations that fall outside the present "range" of "knowns". As you have said and Mina has confirmed; "What we know for sure is that the Chinese vaccine does not work on the Brazilian strain (cf. Chili results) and that AZ does not work on the South African one. The Indian strain has characteristics of the two."

ADE problems, if they surface, are likely to be unstoppable within present techniques (Vaccines), as the natural reserves of bodily resistance will have been modified.
OK if all goes well, BUT.....

I don't like where this train of thought takes me, (ie, deliberate propagation of an infinitely mutatable virus for .... what purpose? Very few serious alternatives can be thought of but all imply an absolute disdain for humans).

*****

Dengue; my wife caught this in the tropics (PNG). Nasty as it come back with monotonous regularity, (every two weeks for her) and there is virtually nothing you can do about it. This wasn't "reinfection" but You KNOW it will come back in two weeks time. Debilitating, painful and absolutely depressing. Another sufferer was airlifted out on a stretcher and sent to Aus. as the only "solution" proposed was a different climate. (We also left PNG soon after anyway)

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 27 2021 20:14 utc | 181

@jared #181
The problem I have with these datasets is that there is rarely any context given.
Looking at annual mortality for the past 70 years - it is very difficult to see the "spike" caused by COVID: Macrotrends graph of US death rate 1950-2021
Yes, 2021 is higher than 2020, which in turn was higher than 2019.
But 2019 was higher than 2018 and 2018 was higher than 2017. The trend of increasing deaths per year started in 2013 - not with the onset of COVID.
Given that we're talking about 8 to 9 deaths per 1000; 540K COVID deaths divided by 332 million Americans = 1.62 - which is higher than the entire jump from 2008-2013 lows to our present rate (8.124 to 8.977).
How is this possible?

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 27 2021 23:34 utc | 182

Wikipedia has a nice enough page on USCGC Hamilton (WMSL-753) (ie.: not the old one they sometimes show pictures of but the new one) that's now in the Black Sea (Sputniknews update about the Russians watching it and everything else).

- - - - -

People who like the whole "80ies version 2" synthwave thing might enjoy listening to The Midnight's new album Horror Show (here's a YouTube link to "Good in Red" 4:26).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Apr 27 2021 23:54 utc | 183

@174 suzan

Thank you for that. I have it bookmarked now for a later read. I appreciate your time and your contributions here.

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 28 2021 1:51 utc | 184

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 27 2021 23:34 utc | 183

Any control measures taken to limit COVID spread are very likely to limit other respriatory diseases too, so comparing "excess mortailty" with previous years or the like will not work once counter measures (masks, distancing, self-sequestration, etc.) are taken to limit spread. This is obvious. It is no longer the same experiment. What you see is the overall effect of limitation of spread on "everything", presumably a minus, with the covid deaths added in. Changes in travel patterns mudddy things up a lot too. All the medical malperfomance too. I understand the desire to get a handle on it, but sometimes you are better off to cling to your ignorance until you can get good data.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 28 2021 2:12 utc | 185

@ Posted by: c1ue | Apr 27 2021 23:34 utc | 183

Interesting. Some it seems to me that, if we can believe the data (Id mark that as unlikely given typical behavior of our government and the highly political and financial nature of the event). Then the evidence shows that the affect of the virus was significant in the short view but not so in the longer view.

I suspect the death rate is rising because of the aging of the population which is also why the affect of the virus was so strong initially and then faded.

In my experiance, most people have had the virus and serious problems are rare - its not that the spread of virus was reduced though no doubt slowed and it is rare that someone has severe symptoms.

Posted by: jared | Apr 28 2021 2:41 utc | 186

When I say the affect was significant, I mean in numerical terms. Of course for decent people any death whether more or less is significant.

Posted by: jared | Apr 28 2021 2:44 utc | 187

Leaving Afghanistan risks reputational damage to the USA !

This pile of tosh by James Dobbins, Opinion Contributor to The Hill thinks along those lines.

The sheer arrogance and brutal ignorance of these scribbling war fornicators is beyond the pale.

So I will quote from his tosh and leave it to you to indulge in more of the same or not:

That there is no military solution to the war in Afghanistan has long been a staple of the American discourse. This has certainly not been the Taliban's view. President Biden’s decision to withdraw unconditionally from an ongoing conflict is a decision to lose. The U.S. departure will be seen as a victory for the Taliban and a defeat for the U.S.

The result will be a blow to American credibility, the weakening of deterrence and the value of American reassurance elsewhere, an increased terrorist threat emanating from the Afghan region and the distinct possibility of a necessary return there one day under worse conditions.

James Dobbins, a senior fellow with the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation, was the lead American negotiator at the 2001 Bonn Conference on Afghanistan and special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2013–14.

And the Hill prints this stuff from "nonpartisan RAND corp". What a rag.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 28 2021 10:47 utc | 188

I can still remember when letting a lady have a chair first was just good manners, but those days seem to finally be gone:

Pressure mounts on Charles Michel in ‘Sofagate’ sexism row as Ursula von der Leyen speaks of ‘hurt’ following Turkey trip snub

On the other hand, back in those days she would not have been there at all.

Pepe comments on the JCPOA negotiations:

Vienna Shadow Play Hangs Over Iran Nuke Deal

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 28 2021 12:15 utc | 189

@Bemildred #186
Let's examine these other effects on death rates:
1) other respiratory diseases.
We know that COVID is roughly 10x the mortality, maybe more, of flu.
We also know flu has largely disappeared - so the 0.1 impact of flu vs. 1.x of COVID should still be a large net positive impact on overall mortality.
2) other deaths.
Homicides, shootings, overdoses etc are all up. Suicides might be slightly lower.
Homicides up according to NPR
NCHS and NVSS preliminary data showing suicides slightly down and overdoses up
Business Insider - non gun suicide deaths up
The NCHS/NVSS data shows overall mortality increased 17.7% in 2020 vs. 2019:

"Most of the increase in deaths from 2019 to 2020 was directly attributed to COVID-19. However, increases were also noted for several other leading causes of death," note the JAMA researchers.

And yet the multi-year graph doesn't show a spike.
Perhaps that data is old, but then again, the significant increases have been going on for quite a few years now.
COVID in 2020 is the 3rd leading cause of death - after heart disease and cancer. Cancer isn't really preventable but heart disease is largely due to lifestyle.

This pandemic is certainly a tragedy; what is far less clear is if the extreme measures taken have actually done enough good to offset the harms they have caused.

From my perspective, the panic over COVID is largely because it was thought to affect everyone - not just the poor, fat people.

2021 data will be interesting.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 28 2021 13:03 utc | 191

Speaking of health care:
Average costs per month for health care, by demographic half decadal age
This was posted to show how terrible private health insurance is because costs go backwards a decadal (2 half decadal categories) as people switch to Medicare at Age 65.
But the problem is that the entire graph is skewed right by the private health care provision system in the US; Medicare is only a price list + payment provider.
The same graph for any other 1st or 2nd world country would see the numbers cut in half.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 28 2021 13:11 utc | 192

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 28 2021 13:03 utc | 192

I'm not saying COVID is not a real problem, far from it, I'm just saying behavior has changed in a way that means you cannot naively compare results beforehand with those after. Things that suppress COVID will be quite likely to suppress other viral diseases of the same sort that we have endemically even more. Mortality and morbidity results from before and after 2020 can be expected to be different, possibly quite different. In the normal course of things, business as usual pre-COVID, you could think it would all come out in the wash, but you cannot say that now.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 28 2021 13:12 utc | 193

I have considered the biggest threat from COVID from the beginning to be it's economic impact, that based on the "just in time" supply chain bullshit, that makes everything "brittle", as they say, and as we see. And also it was going to clobber travel and tourism no matter what because it was "novel".

Anyway, I don't want to argue, I just thought I should throw that in because it seemed very relevant. I don't claim nay expertise in medical matters, for sure.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 28 2021 13:16 utc | 194

@Bemildred #194
Fair enough.
I like to look at longer term trends to get a sense of what those with agendas spout short term.
The preliminary NCHS/NVSS data show that the previous major causes of death have not significantly changed with COVID lockdowns overall. Flu deaths are way, waaay down but homicides and overdoses are up.
Of course, the economic impact will be much longer than 2020 - someone losing a business or a job that permanently disappears, that impact will play out across a decadal time scale.
But it is still interesting just how not terrible pandemic has really been. It isn't the WW1 Flu much less the Black Plague.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 28 2021 13:21 utc | 195

@ Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 28 2021 10:47 utc | 189

re.: James Dobbins, a senior fellow


The result will be a blow to American credibility, the weakening of deterrence and the value of American reassurance elsewhere, an increased terrorist threat emanating from the Afghan region and the distinct possibility of a necessary return there one day under worse conditions.

I'd say he nailed it.
And this is the same sentiment that would be expressed by an organized crime operation, if they were to allow some violation of their control to go unpunished.

It's probably fairly accurate - U.S. reputation has been and will be diminished.

The issue might be with the analysis of cause - is it because they pursued and unwarranted and cruel war based on fabricated claims or is it because they failed to completely crush the will of the people that they attacked and slaughter and then had to give up when the excersize was going over budget?

I'd say his words should be engraved on the Lincoln Memorial.

Posted by: jared | Apr 28 2021 13:21 utc | 196

I was talking to a friend of mine who was bouncing around Eastern Europe/not crazy Middle East while working on his shoestring budget startup.

He wound up stranded in Turkey because of COVID. As part of this visa, he was required to pay for a full year's full health insurance. It cost him $70.
Yes, $70 is 1/2 month's pay for the average Turk - but how many Americans would love to be able to get full health insurance coverage for 1/2 month of their pay?

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 28 2021 13:24 utc | 197

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 28 2021 13:21 utc | 196

Yes, as diseases go, it's not that bad. Not smallpox, not polio, not rabies. Polio was a sanitation problem too. Since we are almost certainly stuck with it now, that's good to know. As I like to say, there are very few real situation where panic is the right response, and most of come when you are driving.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 28 2021 13:27 utc | 198

@ Posted by: c1ue | Apr 28 2021 13:03 utc | 192

I find this article a breath of fresh air -
https://nypost.com/2021/04/27/the-cdcs-reign-of-error-has-done-incalculable-harm-to-america/

... and return to sanity one at a time.

Posted by: jared | Apr 28 2021 13:30 utc | 199

Like last year in South Korea, Brazil, and, yes, "secular" France -the very first cluster in Eastern France- it seems that the fundamentalists are still leading the dance.
https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/the-dip-and-the-divide-that-made-the-fight-against-the-coronavirus-purposeless-7290311/
https://www.thequint.com/news/india/kumbh-mela-pilgrims-gather-for-last-shahi-snan-in-haridwar
Next big one is for May 14th
https://thewire.in/health/uttarakhand-sharp-spike-covid-19-cases-char-dham-yatra-kumbh-mela

Posted by: Mina | Apr 28 2021 13:30 utc | 200

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