Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 28, 2021

Something Is Wrong When You Need A High Rate Of Fire But Ammunition Costs $500 Million Per Shot

North Korea was just reminded how it could ruin the United States:

The Pentagon plans to spend almost $18 billion to develop, produce and support its new interceptor to stop incoming nuclear missiles from North Korea or Iran, the first major defense procurement award of the Biden administration, according to newly released figures.
...
The interceptors are designed to crash into and destroy incoming missiles from an adversary such as North Korea or Iran. They would be installed on missiles based in Alaska. Each of the 31 interceptors is estimated to cost about $498 million.

The new interceptor is intended to correct the mistakes of a failed warhead program that spanned the Obama and Trump administrations before it was canceled in August 2019 after $1.2 billion was spent on a project meant for deployment in 2023.

Out of the 31 interceptors 10 will be for testing and only 21 will be deployed.

To hit an incoming warhead or decoy three interceptors must be fired to reach a kill probability above 95%. 21 interceptors could defeat 7 targets. That are probably more than North Korea has.

But North Korea could MIRV its missiles, i.e. put Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles on top of each of them. They do not need to carry expensive nuclear warheads. One missile carrying seven decoys would be enough to empty all of the Ground Based Missile Defense (GMD) silos. That would leave the U.S. unprotected from the next shot which could or could not come.

One missile, build for probably a few million dollars, could easily put the new $18 billion defense missiles to waste.

Could Kim Jong Un release some photos that show a MIRV-ed North Korean missile? Could he hold a parade with more missiles on show? That might induce the U.S. to buy more interceptor missiles. Rinse and repeat and the U.S. is ruined.

The Government Accountability Office just published its 2020 report on the Missile Defense Agency. Unsurprisingly the MDA delivered less than planned, tested less than planned while many of its tests still failed. The whole agency is a huge waste of money that has no discernible way to success.

Missile defense is a boondoggle for weapon producers. That is the only reason why Congress keeps financing it.

Posted by b on April 28, 2021 at 17:08 UTC | Permalink

Comments

It seems US has now more pitfalls, Ukraine, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea, Venezuela, Taiwan, will more come on the line, Kosovo, Armenia, etc...

Posted by: Ed | Apr 28 2021 17:19 utc | 1

This is another excellent article exposing key facts unrevealed by the complicit regime media. Of course they can keep spending money with no consequence until they can't at some unknown point in the future when the debt becomes too great and/or the areas outside the borg achieve enough financial independence to depose the dollar's reserve currency status.

Posted by: exiled off mainstree | Apr 28 2021 17:22 utc | 2

So each interceptor has a 36.8% chance of missing (cube root of 1-0.95).

Posted by: Cyril | Apr 28 2021 17:23 utc | 3

As pressure mounts on Big Tech firms to curb their invasive data-harvesting practices first implemented to cultivate valuable personal data that can be packaged and sold to advertisers for a premium (indeed, this is how the "free Internet" was built), WSJ has just published a shocking story about how one firm (a defense contractor called "PlanetRisk") discovered it could track sensitive movements of American troops in Syria via data generated by apps on their smartphones.

https://politnew.com/world/4797-company-weaponizes-soldiers-smartphone-data-to-expose-us-military-secrets.html

Posted by: Serg | Apr 28 2021 17:32 utc | 4

Since the Mueller investigation into the Putin-Trump "collusion" affair was so successful (after all, Trump is currently languishing in jail after being convicted a traitor), the US Garbagement has decided to institutionalize that strategy via the creation of a so-called "Foreign Malign Influence Response Center". Mother, Mary and Joseph!

Posted by: Maracatu | Apr 28 2021 17:55 utc | 5

The beauty of this is that NK doesn't have to put real warheads on the missile. All it has to do is prove that it has at least one, then use dummies.

But then, the goal of these missile interceptors isn't to actually defend against a real threat, but to make money for the contractor.

Posted by: ian | Apr 28 2021 17:58 utc | 6

The very moment the DPRK acquired a nuclear weapon it became immune to invasion. Dither Alaska. Do you seriously think the Amerikastanis will risk their Japanese or South Korean slaves being incinerated in a nuclear fireball?

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Apr 28 2021 18:07 utc | 7

America is ruined.

The flight of U.S. dollars into boondoggles and other poor "investments" like vaccine distribution, rehoming illegals, free money handouts to those who don't want to go back to work, and reparation and woke shit whereby minorities are privileged to useless admin jobs which produce no value all mean that the U.S. dollar is finished as world reserve currency.

The rising nationalist tide will undo this hegemony once and for all. At that point, minorities who have been living the good life off the federal monster, who in the end will find themselves equal victims of this reality as whites are currently, will have to give up their phoney posturing of fighting for racial justice in the U.S. or whatever the hell they think they are actually doing.

The dying Fed will mean a return to patriotic nationalism. The world will breathe a collective sigh of relief and us Americans will then finally be able to roll up our sleeves and busy ourselves in actual productive work again.

The (((globalists))) will rue the day their stupidity took flight, untethering themselves from world spirit which always finds it way through individuals who make themselves known as usherers into the next epoch. What will he or she look like?

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 28 2021 18:17 utc | 8

Biswapriya Purkayast@7 asks whether "Amerikastanis" will risk their Japanese or South Korean slaves being incinerated in a nuclear fireball? Perhaps the rulers rather than the people at large are meant? But the rulers do not care about the deaths of Japanese or South Korean "slaves" being incinerated, because they simply are not "slaves" in the sense of being property with a title that counts as wealth, that could be used for collateral or can be sold for cash, etc. "Slave" has a real meaning. Also, the notion that the north would randomly incinerate citizens is more likely, I think, to merely be propaganda, scare tactics. The US is more worried about free Koreans nuking invader armies or naval fleets, I suspect. And that's why Korea is not apt to be invaded by US armies. South Korean cannibals could be sent north to eat the people at any time, unfortunately, with no regrets on the part of their taskmasters in D.C. and Wall Street (and various equivalents in other imperialist partners.)

Posted by: steven t johnson | Apr 28 2021 18:19 utc | 9

Oh, I forgot, Yemen, Palestine, Somalia, etc

Posted by: Ed | Apr 28 2021 18:19 utc | 10

Well, outright fraud is (and has been, for many years) a fundamental and fatal flaw in US defense spending and strategic planning. Take the F35 program, as an example.
As far as the corporations who actually manufacture and market arms and armaments are concerned, the 'current US administration' is of absolutely no signifigance whatsoever (and, neither is the US population).
However, for the 'current US administration', letting their mouths write checks that their asses can't cash should be of some concern.

Posted by: Josh | Apr 28 2021 18:20 utc | 11

This is all well and good but the implosion will only begin when the world's nations stop purchasing/holding US Treasuries.

This is somewhat of a chicken/egg issue in that movement needs to occur from the current stasis to a new stasis with lots of FUD in the interim and the tsunami of incentive for that move is still building.

What the hell will "high ground" look like when the tsunami breaks loose?...and how to get there? China/Russia have already built alternatives but before complete shift comes International Private Debtmageedon

This post is an example of the internal dissonance that cumulatively will bring empire down and I wish it was sooner than now.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 28 2021 18:27 utc | 12

P.S.
There's a guy,
Who knows a guy,
Who knows a guy,
Who robbed a guy,
Who had some super duper space missiles for sale,
Maybe they should try that instead...

Posted by: Josh | Apr 28 2021 18:31 utc | 13

the free money has to go somewhere until everybody stops believing in it...

Posted by: james | Apr 28 2021 18:39 utc | 14

"The whole agency is a huge waste of money that has no discernible way to success."

Meh. I'm not so sure. Military keynesianism, plus a whole bunch of R&D that might very well end up bringing benefits in unrelated civilian areas. Waste, but not a complete waste.

Posted by: Mao Cheng Ji | Apr 28 2021 18:48 utc | 15

If they replaced the warheads with bales of dollar bills, it would be cheaper.

- and just as effective.
******

How much was it for one "Zumwalt" shell ? One million a throw?

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 28 2021 18:48 utc | 16

Shush, don't interrupt them.

Posted by: Lonkal | Apr 28 2021 18:50 utc | 17

This is just the foot-in-the (Military Gravy Train) door. Or to put it another way - Phase 1 of yet another 'new' Armaments scam. Some random military 'genius' will figure out that the current ABM system is inadequate and then it'll be luxury yachts and private jets for ALL of the M-IC parasites and bs-artistes. Cancel a dozen Hospitals and Education programs and there'll be plenty of cash to splash on 'defense' daydreams.

It's too cute that no-one bothers to contemplate solving the totally artificial NK problem with some ultra-cheap Diplomacy - such as declaring an end to the Korean War.
Too easy?

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 28 2021 19:00 utc | 18

The Zumwalt (CIApedia) class destroyers cost $7.5 billion each. What a bargain!

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 28 2021 19:43 utc | 19

That's always been how you defeat a missile defense system: saturation fire, you just launch so many missiles at the same time that the defenses just can't hit them all, but a small part of them manages to make a home run. This is also why you'd better have cheap missiles and cheap defense system, otherwise you're going to bankrupt yourself.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Apr 28 2021 20:02 utc | 20

"declaring an end to the Korean War" – Hoarsewhisperer @ 18

I've always assumed a nuclear NK is an asset the US hawks prefer to keep in reserve for the inevitable world war on China sometime this 21st century. Pull the pin, draw in the Chinese, and let the 'tactical' nukes start flying. It feels like we're drawing ever closer and when the western central banks implode what else is left to keep an empire intact?

I think we have a very long way to go before the Neoconservative ideology of global Full Spectrum Dominance fades into the history books rather than being the foundation of the current US hawks' foreign policy. As always, for the last 70+ years, the only safety valve us earthlings have is Mutual Assured Destruction. So yes, it's either pull the trigger on mutual suicide, or finally join in diplomacy advocating a multipolar geopolitics based on mutual respect and economic development (HA!)

Posted by: Zeug | Apr 28 2021 20:05 utc | 21

Proof that Peace is more productive, creative and socially rewarding. Peace is less polluting, less wasteful and less destructive.

Peace creates actual dividends from betterment. The USA has totally lost its mind.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 28 2021 20:22 utc | 22

Danaïdes to the rescue of Sisyphus

With an estimated lifetime cost of $1.6 trillion, the F-35 Lightning II, conceived as a versatile, super stealthy next-generation fighter plane, is the most expensive weapon system ever built.
And even the relatively low $80 million-per-F-35 price tag is deceptive, because the F-35 has proven so expensive and challenging to maintain that every hour an F-35 is flown costs $36,000

Since 2018, "alleged" use by ISAF in an "alleged" combat missions, F35 are announced to have been engaged in 1000 so called "combat mission"
$1.6 trillion /1000= $1.6 billion /combat mission.

Some cost killers think that numerator is too high. Suggest to crash the program (for an affordable new one)

Some other that you can just increase denominator


Warum sind Kriege da ?


Or is it also a question of money?
Much money for the few magnates,
Who build tanks and missiles
And then buy gold and diamonds
For their elegant wifes

Posted by: Bernard F. | Apr 28 2021 20:35 utc | 23

Great scam, isn't it?

Probably not actually ruined tho, because it is unlikely they actually cost that much. Unless things have radically changed from the past, the dollar amount we see is a massively inflated piece of pork for the usual suspects.

What it will produce is a marginal transfer of wealth among dollar holders.

Posted by: ptb | Apr 28 2021 21:09 utc | 24

Australia is spending money on military bases.

https://themarketherald.com.au/australia-sets-aside-747m-to-upgrade-military-bases-as-international-tensions-escalate-2021-04-28/

The strengthed airfields are for the huge, heavy Abrams tanks that are unsuitable for the Australian terrine.

Former PM John Howard was persuaded by GWB to buy 59 cumbersome refurbished Abrams tanks and then discovered they were too heavy for most Australian bridges. Howard was then forced to buy two new billion dollar heavy lift US aircraft to move them. The Abrams are only suitable for supporting US forces in a major continental war overseas.

The Abrams are gas turbine powered, again unsuitable for dusty Australian conditions and vulnerable to a simple Molotov Cocktail in the exposed air intake. What a waste all round.

Australia already had the worlds leading tank, the German Leopard. Fully waterproof and fast. The upgraded Leopard 2 would be the smarter option.

Of course Australia is pathetic at management, budgeting and diplomacy. Defence is probably the worst offender for sheer waste of money.

Posted by: Paul | Apr 28 2021 21:16 utc | 25

Seems US security experts are ceding control of their own money presses to NK, or possibly any nearby neighbour with the will to join in. They'll need to to advise everyone when they're broke, else that last incoming missile might be the first one that works. Like an ACME plan out of the Coyote an Road Runner playbook. Well done!

Posted by: Dim sim | Apr 28 2021 21:17 utc | 26

Proof that Peace is more productive, creative and socially rewarding. Peace is less polluting, less wasteful and less destructive.
[...]
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 28 2021 20:22 utc | 22

Too easy?
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 28 2021 19:00 utc | 18


"Pas assez cher, mon fils"

Posted by: Bernard F. | Apr 28 2021 21:20 utc | 27

steven t johnson @ 9 Japan restarted its disaster nuclear reactors. no need for
North Korea to spend its good money on destroying Japan.

Agree with Psychohistorian @ 12, the China/Russia alternatives will
reduce US bond sales to near zero, nada, none, null.

Hoarsewhisperer @18, the MIC gravy train is continuous non stop..
its part of the USA plan to bankrupt America.

Clueless Joe @ 20 cheap missiles ,=not recommended, they avoid the
Oligarch planned bankruptcy of America.
USA has enhanced its copyright, patent and license laws since 1974.
Without monopoly powers created by the USA laws, Oligarchs and
their leg breaker corporations would not have been able to
dismantle and redistribute high-tech, industrial America to
the cheapest labor and most unregulated places the oligarch
could find. Nothing will be left.

by: Zeug@ 21 it's either pull the trigger on mutual suicide, or finally join
in diplomacy advocating a multipolar geopolitics based on mutual respect and
economic development (HA!) <= the oligarchs and their corporate leg breakers
are not likely to allow the USA to negotiate until the destruction of America
is complete. Americans are likely to emerge at a quality of life one step
lower than the Greeks, and deeper, far deeper, in debt than the Greeks.

Posted by: snake | Apr 28 2021 21:25 utc | 28

Thank b. for the link


This year, the Missile Defense Agency delivered 62% of the interceptors it planned to, and conducted some tests (2 of 9) that provided valuable information

One question about grammar?(As you know, I'm not qualified)
that provided valuable information
Some? Plural?


MDA conducted two planned flight tests, but neither was successful. [...], but the agency was able to collect important data.

100%,failed is the data

So,
planned = 9 (cash in)
Successfull = 0 (need more cash)
I suggest MDA to subcontract test to VW. 0‰ tested but 100% positive data.


Posted by: Bernard F. | Apr 28 2021 21:38 utc | 29

The new proposed interceptors are obviously not for North Korea or Iran. They are clearly for use against the new Russian and Chinese hypersonic missiles. If the generals are really willing to fork out half a billion bucks per shot, this would tell us just how frightened they are of the Avangard and other weapons in Russia's arsenal.

Posted by: Cyril | Apr 28 2021 21:46 utc | 30

Cyril @ 30

Nope, they are for N Korea and Iran because we imagine those could be hit. Russian missiles are not ballistic, they change course, maneuver, evade. Totally unpredictable. Nothing even being dreamt of at present could shoot down a Russian missile. That technology will spread, before the new interceptor toy is ready it will be wholly obsolete.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 28 2021 21:55 utc | 31

John Kerry facing calls to resign for allegedly sharing the Israelis' classified information with Iran.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/apr/27/john-kerry-denies-sharing-secret-intelligence-with/

Iran's "top diplomat" regrets sharing the alleged comments now.

https://apnews.com/article/tehran-presidential-elections-elections-iran-middle-east-4a0702f0310095ac15d07061d9ce9e23

Posted by: K_C_ | Apr 28 2021 22:30 utc | 32

@oldhippie | Apr 28 2021 21:55 utc | 31

Nope, they are for N Korea and Iran because we imagine those could be hit.

North Korean and Iranian missiles don't need to be defended against for $1.5 billion each (3 interceptors at half a billion per, for each incoming). Something like an S-300 would be adequate and far, far cheaper.


Russian missiles are not ballistic, they change course, maneuver, evade. Totally unpredictable. Nothing even being dreamt of at present could shoot down a Russian missile. That technology will spread, before the new interceptor toy is ready it will be wholly obsolete.

The maneuverability is probably why a single interceptor is expected to have only 63% chance of kill. That the NYT is even talking about it -- and probably lying, as they often do, about the reason -- shows just how scared the US is by Russia's hypersonic weaponry.

Posted by: Cyril | Apr 28 2021 22:52 utc | 33

Biswapriya P @ 7, Steven T Johnson @ 9:

The Amerikastanis don't care about their serfs in Japan or South Korea. They do care though about their military bases in those countries.

US Military Bases in Japan: a list of 23 bases

US Military Bases in South Korea: a list of 15 bases

Posted by: Jen | Apr 28 2021 23:51 utc | 34

-// The maneuverability is probably why a single interceptor is expected to have only 63% chance of kill. //-

Bullshit. The maneuverability is probably why a single interceptor is expected to have only 0.01% chance of kill.

But very expensive nonetheless. You could put all the San Fran homeless up in 5 Star hotels with that money.

Posted by: blues | Apr 29 2021 2:03 utc | 35

It's time to repeat with readers a conversation I had in the early '80's with this fellow out at the University, a CS bozo, about Ronzo's Star Wars moneywasting nonsense. I was telling him what a great breakthrough the space missile program was, what a game-changing thing it was going to be, and he was nodding along in agreement. You see, I said, that up till now, on planet Earth, ratholes have a finite diameter, depth, and elasticity, and you can only pound a finite number of dollar bills down them. Due to the interstellar vastness of space, space-based ratholes have infinite depth and allow an endless infinite number of taxpayer dollar bills to be pounded down them. It is truly a great breakthrough for defense contractors. It wasn't what he was expecting to hear.

But it is the truth, and is an excellent explanation for the why behind our continued obsession with militarized outer space, and for our technologically hopeless pursuit of missile defense. The complete failure of the American political system to face up to its duty to stop squandering so much money for decades now on something technologically impossible and morally odious like missile defense is might show even better than our current endless objectiveless wars do just how broken the American political system, and by reasonable extension, American society and peoples, are.

Posted by: Daniel N. White | Apr 29 2021 2:12 utc | 36

95% of that half a billion for each useless toy will go into offshore accounts for a handful charlatans.

Posted by: Hass | Apr 29 2021 2:36 utc | 37

If outer space becomes militarized, radar reflective 'shells' will look exactly the same as heavy 10 Megaton nuclear hypersonic warheads. Small amounts of liquid nitrogen will make them all move slightly differently. They will be mostly invisible anyway.

Posted by: blues | Apr 29 2021 2:37 utc | 38

Missiles are the new crossbow.

Cheap, devastating and easily used by everyone.

Planes, ships are increasingly become the new heavy cavalry, expensive AND vulnerable.

Posted by: Smith | Apr 29 2021 2:38 utc | 39

Posted by: Smith | Apr 29 2021 2:38 utc | 39

Missiles are the new crossbow.

Cheap, devastating and easily used by everyone.

Planes, ships are increasingly become the new heavy cavalry, expensive AND vulnerable.

Yes, I think that's been true for some time, but it took the Russians and Iranians to really show the way. Missiles are cheap and hard to stop, and you don't need any pilots for them either. Having maneuverable hypersonics just makes it so much worse.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 29 2021 2:42 utc | 40

I don't understand why the US has abandoned nuclear tipped ABMs. Both the Spartan and Sprint missiles of the earlier Safeguard program used nuclear warheads for intercept.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safeguard_Program

Posted by: AD | Apr 29 2021 2:50 utc | 41

I wonder if the AmeriKKKans are losing any sleep over Russia's claim to have crossed the threshold to perfecting Nuclear Powered Flying Objects? Unlimited range/flight duration would yield numerous benefits. And no combustion products or pesky contrails.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 29 2021 5:06 utc | 42

Very OT but does B has sources to look into what's happening in India. We know it's very bad and their entire healthcare has practically collapsed, and data is totally faked by the govt.
This message is more terrifying so needs to be checked from several sources.

India is fucking dead if this is true.
Don't even think of leaving your country where you are.
-----
Below msg from my x AIMST Colleague who was supposed to go to India to help but plane diverted back to Pg. Total air lockdown on in India. Very serious there.

WARNING: COVID19

New mutation is giving false negatives in Nasal swaps. The virus is now hitting straight into the lungs. It is carrying no symptoms like fever or cough. Just body-ache, weakness, loss of appetite.

Patients go from mild condition to extreme life and death situation within 8 to 10 hours.

Patients that have previous recovered from COVID19 in last year or so are at higher risk as their respiratory system is still not fully recovered.

When they get the new mutation their fatality rate is much higher.

We are receiving data from across India and it is not just alarming, it is an absolute disaster of historical proportions.

We suspect Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh will all now be experiencing the new mutations of virus and face a dire situation just like India.

Our colleagues in small towns across India especially North Eastern regions are saying it is a battle we have already lost. It is now damage control and save as many lives as possible.

We have seen 400 plus children just in our district die within 10 to 12 hours. Intitial period they showed no symptoms and within hours their oxygen levels dropped and deceased.

We have also attended to several patients who traveled into Mumbai from overseas and had received their jabs and ended up contracting the virus and 17 out of 28 have died.

Health services both in public and private hospitals have collapsed. Rich, middle class and poor all are affected and it is spreading fast, very fast.

Any further mutation or variants will potentially be a doomsday scenario.

This is a WARNING go to extreme precautions for everyone in your household.

From children to elders this virus is no longer containable in India. Our government and systems have failed. No one could have ever anticipated this.

For all other developing countries with weak healthcare systems please note this is beyond all our capacities.

Let’s work towards trying to stop the spread even if it means an ironclad lockdown or else the only thing we will have left is a body count statistic that would make the Spanish flu look like a non event.

Message from Dr Pradeep Senha
Sassoon General Hospital
Maharashtra

Posted by: Surferket | Apr 29 2021 6:52 utc | 43

US still stuck in the dark ages, creating half billion dollar interceptor missiles, while Russia has moved into the 21st century with $1/shot laser defense systems.

US MIC is the ingredient baked into the cake that will destroy the US empire without a shot fired.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rb2kGCoBf0&ab_channel=BORZZIKMAN

Posted by: Don Harder | Apr 29 2021 7:29 utc | 44

@41, AD

The reason might be that a nuclear-tipped interceptor is expected to cause an EMP burst as it detonates, disabling electronics over a wide area, which would be a bit like nuking yourself. But I can't really say whether that's even an actual risk, much less the reason why they abandoned them.

It's interesting however that Russia also seems to have abandoned nuclear payloads for their newest A-235 anti-ballistic missile system.

Posted by: Eric | Apr 29 2021 7:57 utc | 45

Surferket that's most likely a complete hoax. Hopefully this can allay any immediate fears.

"Byramjee Jeejeebhoy Government Medical College and Sassoon General Hospitals" has a webpage ( www.bjmcpune.org which includes a contact page but I don't want to waste their time and suggests nobody else does either) and I couldn't find any "Pradeep Senha" among their lists of names but maybe I missed it or maybe the three lists I found didn't include everyone. The hospital even has a Wikipedia page and looks very renowned.

From the homepage:

Sassoon General Hospitals is a large state-run hospital in Pune, India with 1296 beds. It is affiliated to the B. J. Medical College and a Nurses training School. Sassoon Hospital caters to 9,426,959 population of Pune District- a 2nd most populous district in the State of Maharashtra.

In addition:

· All the search results I get on the name concern themselves with this particular message and nothing else. No work histories, no student histories, no appearances, no media, no work or papers and no citations of any kind.

· Those results include references in the small search result content selections that make them seem at the very least five days old (I did not read any of them). Five days is a very long time for something like what is being described to not have been confirmed and become a thoroughly documented story because the death toll of what is being described would have been staggering within five days: there are over seven million people living in Pune where the hospital is and it would have spread much further in nearly a week. Tens of millions of dead people within a week is not something anyone can cover up to the extent of no confirmation or comment at all.

I think this is enough to form my conclusion unless someone has anything better or can show that I've made any errors.

- - - - -

100% OT Pradeep is a nice name, knew a Pradeep long ago, good person too.

- - - - -

Many good comments that are on topic! Thank you all!

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Apr 29 2021 10:17 utc | 46

oldhippie | Apr 28 2021 21:55 utc | 31

The Missile that landed 30 km from Dimona; Came in low and is supposed to have taken avoidance action. Israeli air defenses could not stop it. Some say it possibly came from Herzbollah and others from Syria/Iran etc. (There is nobody mentioned as "definitely)

This is the "here and now".
****

AD | Apr 29 2021 2:50 utc | 41

Fallout?. Interceptors blow up overhead, and down comes the rain with lots of radioactive side effects in the dust it collected on the way.

Idem for "nuclear war" Nobody thinks of where the fallout will come down - except the Americans who are trying their best for any war to be held in Europe or in anywhere else, as long as it isn't nearby. .

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 29 2021 11:40 utc | 47

by:Daniel N. White @36 American political system
<= the American political system d/n exist,
<=its a political system created by the USA,
<=and maintained by a two party oligarch system
<=it works like a depart store complaint dept.
<=you might get your money back, but
<=nothing you or it does will create change.
<=its protected by privately owned MSM mind control narrative
<=divide and conquer strategies
<=continuous monitoring of everyone's personal behavior
<=rule of law and armed force
<=denial of human access to: non-conforming narratives or inconvenient facts.

by: Daniel N. White @36 to stop [political] squandering
<= its performance has been outstanding, <= the Oligarchs love it.

by:Surferket@43 Very OT but does B has sources to
look into what's happening in India. We know it's
very bad and their entire healthcare has practically
collapsed, and data is totally faked by the govt.
This message is more terrifying so needs to be
checked from several sources.
<= Threat I raised early on and everyone discounted my question.
The water source and sewage recycling system is suspect in every community in the world b/c/it is likely
the corona virus is active in air as well as in solution.. here is why?

Posted by: snake | Apr 29 2021 12:43 utc | 48

Stonebird @47

It wouldn't be that much fallout from a high altitude airburst. The only things there that could be turned into fallout would be the target and the interceptor itself, and the target would only be turned into fallout if the interceptor was close enough to the target when it lit off that the target gets vaporized in the fireball. The beauty of an atomic interceptor is that you don't have to get that close to your target to still take it out of action.

Next, there is no rain in the stratosphere so the fallout would stay aloft for quite a while; long enough to get pretty evenly distributed around the world. A lot of the hottest stuff would decay before it ever reached the ground. With that said, there would be a lot of "hot particles" generated. Anyone who gets one of these in their lungs or digestive tract would be a hurtin` puppy (think Hugo Chavez or Yasser Arafat). We could probably expect a few hundred additional cancer deaths in the world after a few of these atomic interceptors popped off. Of course, most people in the world are not American, so most of those deaths would occur somewhere else. That would be a trivial price to pay for America's leaders (trust me on that!).

So I don't think the fallout would be the holdup. Most likely the risk of the EMP from such a high altitude airbusrt taking out expensive satellites and terrestrial infrastructure is what the concern is about.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 29 2021 13:01 utc | 49

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 29 2021 13:01 utc | 49

RE EMP effects: yes, I agree,, shooting off a volley of nukes at altitude ought to have a spectacular effect. Fallout we have lived with here already, clobbering the internet at this point I would think was just too expensive.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 29 2021 14:29 utc | 50

Stonebird@ 47

That is very interesting. With a huge grain of salt. Any information from Israel and especially information from Dimona is going to be buried in fog and misdirection. Still it is believable that Iran has some progress and some results. The one sure thing is Iron Dome is a boondoggle and a joke.

The nuclear tipped interceptor - or any interceptor - still has to see a target and get close to it. The whole point of strategic air breathing hypersonics is they enjoy plasma stealth. Nothing to see on radar. They are not faster than ballistic missiles. At tactical range obviously sheer speed is useful. At strategic range they are same as ballistics or slower.

Supposing incoming missiles could be tracked visually by satellite - doubtful but conceivable - a maneuvering missile is still roughly impossible to hit. An interceptor is never going to catch up. Not possible to calculate revised trajectories and change course and pursue. Never happening.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 29 2021 14:37 utc | 51

Gruff @ 49

The other basic reason nuclear interceptors are ridiculous is fleets of them would be required. Hundreds to have any coverage, maybe thousands. Care and feeding of all that is logistically preposterous.

This is a discussion left over from early Cold War era. When Russia might have sent over a handful of missiles because a handful was all they had. Our thinking on these issues is sixty years old. Might have made sense when Kennedy and Nixon were debating. Commentariat has not moved beyond. By all indications neither have the politicians or senior military. For MIC it is all a sales opportunity.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 29 2021 14:52 utc | 52

"To hit an incoming warhead or decoy three interceptors must be fired to reach a kill probability above 95%. 21 interceptors could defeat 7 targets. That are probably more than North Korea has today.

...fixed it for you :)

Posted by: robert | Apr 29 2021 15:13 utc | 53

William Gruff | Apr 29 2021 13:01 utc | 49

OK. No rain. But after Chernobyl accident, the increase in cancer mortality was calculated to be 9% more than "usual" total in Europe. (Thousands+). I don't know if this was the actual amount reached, but I lost two friends in the immediate aftermath from Cancer. One had been taking radiation treatment to the limit, and this pushed her over. The other was a suddden skin cancer on a person who was cyclist and super active. I am a very wary of the idea that the effects of radiation are limited.

The other thing is not the "hot" particles, but for example milk and mushrooms cumulate radioactivity and were to be avoided. (there are specific food lists, these are just two examples). One peak rad count was at Clairveaux des lacs in the Jura mountains (France). Quite high altitude, good place to find mushrooms, milk/cheese producing area, and up to then not really polluted.

Fallujah, it was the dust from DU ammunition fixing in the lungs.
It is odd that the Fukushima accident(s) have not had much reported impact on cancer figures, but it is early days yet.

I suppose IF you are IN a bunker it is not too bad?

*****

oldhippie | Apr 29 2021 14:37 utc | 51

OK, can I have my grain of salt on a beefsteak? (Jeez, am I going to be hauled over the coals if I suggest a meat dish?).

The missile that landed near Dimona was suggested to have been a late version of a Fateh-110. Too late to find out the version from the bits. (Solid state propulsion, 300km range.)

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 29 2021 17:04 utc | 54

Stonebird @ 44

I’d love to share that beefsteak with you. Fateh 110 sounds plausible but that missile has been reported to be most everything.

When thinking about fallout remember that it takes about 3 kilos of enriched uranium to make a minimum size weapon. Against that a nuclear power plant will have tons of uranium. Spent fuel pool will have hundreds of tons of mixed radioactive waste.

Fukushima did cause cancers, is causing cancers. Japanese are busy saving face. The workers handling “cleanup” are from castes who are not included in statistics. Never any honest reporting about nukes, Japanese are taking it to extremes.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 29 2021 19:01 utc | 55

When the alternative is a ground or low altitude burst in your own vicinity then a high altitude (or space) burst is so much better even with any EMP that it shouldn't be the reason why anyone would choose not to use nuclear-tipped interceptors (or simply use some of the normal nuclear rockets to lay down a blocking barrage).

A lot of it would happen over the North Pole where the EMP shouldn't be such a worry but even if you blanketed the world with EMPs it would still be a lot better, at least any way I can think of it that's the case.

No I think (and seem to remember but take that with a grain of salt) that the reason why this was discontinued by mutual agreement was in order to strengthen MAD and the power balance and that it was all part of the negotiations and agreements in some of the now defunct nuclear armament treaties.

- -

I would not have believed in 1987 or so that in case I ever got to see 2020 (and now 2021) without a nuclear war the situation between the world powers with respect to arms treaties including the nuclear ones would be so much more abysmally worse than it was back then.

The US has really fucked this up (and the language is sadly appropriate).

And so few people seem willing to acknowledge it or care, including old people who were alive back then or political people (including politicians) who must (not should) know better because they built careers on this as juniors.

Inexplicable.

- - - - -

Remember that not all radiation is equal with at least three or four major kinds/intensities (alpha, beta, gamma, and should bremsstrahlung count separately?) and whatever the combinatorial (a "not-tiny" multiplicative) sum is of roughly three times (isotopes) of half (or more?) a chemical table of elements. Different half-lives and all kinds of chemical/physical element interactions, some of which will be less efficient or less damaging when it comes to biological chemistry (now we're talking molecules and repairs) than others.

Some chemist feel free to correct this or point to anyone having done all the work (it would be a lot) or having summed it all up.

Am I making sense?

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Apr 29 2021 19:39 utc | 56

Stonebird @54

The business end of the interceptor and the warhead it is intended to intercept might together be one or two thousand pounds, though probably less. These get get turned to vapor high in the stratosphere in a ballistic missile intercept situation where the interceptor has an atomic charge. This vapor condenses into a very fine dust that could take years to settle to the ground. The more energetically radioactive elements in this dust have a short half-life and will decay to less radioactive elements before they reach the ground. The more energy they release the faster they burn out, to use a fire metaphor. The radioactive dust that does make to the ground will be spread fairly evenly around the world, so there will be a little bit everywhere instead of a lot in one place.

To put things in perspective, the Chernobyl disaster released over 50 tons of radioactive material, most of which was not vapor and was instead larger particulates (smoke and chunks). This was released at ground level, and most of it came down within a few hundred miles of the accident. This was a whole lot of radioactive material in a much smaller area, and it was "fresh" radioactive material at that, which is to say that it had very little time to decay into less dangerous stuff before people came into contact with it. This is not at all comparable to a high altitude atomic airburst.

This isn't to say that h-bombs are OK if you detonate them up in the stratosphere, but the people who make that decision know that such a use will only result in a few scores of additional cancer deaths spread out around the world. That is nothing compared with what Chernobyl or Fukushima did.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 29 2021 20:17 utc | 57

Sunny Runny Burger | Apr 29 2021 19:39 utc | 56

Remember that not all radiation is equal with at least three or four major kinds/intensities

I had forgotten the complications. They were talked about a lot at the time. Needs a specialist there.

****

William Gruff | Apr 29 2021 20:17 utc | 57

The radioactive dust that does make to the ground will be spread fairly evenly around the world, so there will be a little bit everywhere instead of a lot in one place.

So if everyone gets a little bit that is better? hhhuuuummmm.

One assumption you make is that all intercepts will take place at relatively high altitude. This means that recognition of target, and reaction take place relatively quickly. The usual large room full of Generals looking at screens while some lowly operater says "what shall we do now, sir?".

Might be true in the US. Instead the EU - Russia scenario only gives a couple of minutes reply time both ways. (No way to ask the Generals who are hiding under the tables). Just how much altitude can be gained in that space of time? (The Generals all learned about "get out and get under" from their youth in the 50-60's.). On the Russian side the reaction is said to be automated anyway, and include an "after service" in that a riposte will take place even if everyone is dead.

Point taken about quantities.

At Fukushima it is questionable just how much radioactive "core" was ejected into the atmosphere, or sank underneath the reactors (two possibilities). Did the stuff go up in the explosions, or sink through the bottom? At the moment there is another vast quantity of radioactive water to be dealt with.

(Pre-fried fishes - I thought that the earlier traces of radioactive water were going to be washed up in California by the currents. What ever happen there? No news is not necessarily good news these days)

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 29 2021 20:59 utc | 58

@AD | Apr 29 2021 2:50 utc | 41

I don't understand why the US has abandoned nuclear tipped ABMs.

What if the nuclear interceptor missed? If it then proceeded to land on your territory, you would be defending against a nuclear attack by nuking yourself, probably not a good idea. Of course, some safeguards inside the interceptor could prevent a random self-nuking, but that adds extra complexity to your missle and therefore increases the chance that something could fail. I would not be surprised to learn that there is an excellent reason for dropping the idea.

Posted by: Cyril | Apr 29 2021 23:36 utc | 59

@41 "I don't understand why the US has abandoned nuclear tipped ABMs."

I suspect that the weight of the warhead became an issue once ICBMs became MIRVed.

When ICBMs followed a strictly ballistic path them shooting a nuke into that path was (barely) possible. Do-able, though still a daunting task.

But putting multiple, independently guided warheads on that ICBM means that the interceptor needs to be able to maneovre, and a heavy warhead on your interceptor makes that difficult.

Better to make the interceptor as agile as possible and aim for a kinetic kill.

Or, maybe, putting nukes on your ABM became as fashionionable as bell-bottom trousers, the nuclear depth-charge, fedora hats, or nuke-tipped Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Sure, you could buy 'em, but being seen in public with one would mark you as unbelievably tragic.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 30 2021 2:18 utc | 60

Of course Australia is pathetic at management, budgeting and diplomacy. Defence is probably the worst offender for sheer waste of money.

Posted by: Paul | Apr 28 2021 21:16 utc | 25

Ineffective preparation for war can be strategically astute if you have the option to avoid them. "Ah, we would join Ukrainians as eagerly as we went to Gallipoli, but we have too few tanks. But we purchased those tanks from you (the overlord), so it should count for something". No armadas in sight sailing against Australia, New Zealand, USA and even Canada. Canadians had problems with Denmark over Hans Island so they oven expanded their Navy (a destroyer if I recall) for the occasion, and at the end, they decided to split the island (a gloomy and tiny block of granite in high Arctic). At least, Pacific Islands dominated by New Zealand and by Australia are well charted and well separated.

Taken together, in USA the largest waste is in medical-business complex, and the distant second is military-industrial. Australia has amazingly thrifty medical care, thus where USA spends more than 20% of GDP on those two, Australia spends less than 8% (or is it 9?). USA also manages to waste a lot on some infrastructure projects (like a subway line in NYC).

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 30 2021 20:08 utc | 61

I don't understand why the US has abandoned nuclear tipped ABMs.

Posted by: AD | Apr 29 2021 2:50 utc | 41

It is perhaps mysterious if you consider them to be a desperate defense against a putative attack. However, as a conflict maker, you have to install those systems where it irritates Russia and China, like in Romania and Korea. Then you have them approved by the locals, and nukes generate emotions that could well turn anti-American.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 30 2021 20:12 utc | 62

Crude NK test missiles flew over Japan completely unopposed, when there's enough sea in their trajectories for a safe interceptor kill.

If that isn't clear evidence proving US missile defenses are all bark and no bite, I don't know what is.

Posted by: J W | May 1 2021 4:19 utc | 63

Crude NK test missiles flew over Japan completely unopposed, when there's enough sea in their trajectories for a safe interceptor kill.
If that isn't clear evidence proving US missile defenses are all bark and no bite, I don't know what is.
Posted by: J W | May 1 2021 4:19 utc | 63

NK's missile tests are monitored from SK and probably elsewhere. Their trajectory can be predicted within a few minutes of blast-off. NK has been careful to choose non-threatening trajectories to avoid inviting interception. The main problem White Racist AmeriKKKa has is that none of its artificial enemies are as dumb/ backward as the Klansmen In Charge wish they could be.
The Armchair Rednecks fell off their Armchairs when NK fired a rocket which reached an altitude of several thousand Km because it only took a few minutes to figure out that such a missile could reach US Territory (Tombstone Territory?), if necessary. So, once again, as usual, having nodded off mid-conflict, the self-ambushing Yanks are playing catch-up. With their mouths.
Not knowing when to STFU is another weird dis-ease with which the Yanks have infected each other.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | May 1 2021 14:44 utc | 64

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