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Sorry, No Post Today.
Sorry, no post today.
The heating installation for the block I am living in failed yesterday. It is supposed to be up again only late this evening. It is freezing not only outside and typing with mittens on is just too inconvenient.
Use as open thread …
@ Posted by: Hoyeru | Jan 27 2021 3:22 utc | 100
‘Biden and USA will interpret that as yet another sign of weakness on Putin’s part’
While i sympathise with your sentiment, i’m not sure you have really thought this one through, which is probably why a man like Putin is in charge of Russia, and not you..
It won’t matter one bit what Putin says to Biden, certainly not in the way of threats, most of which he could not back with actions, certainly without exposing Russia’s operational limits in Syria and compromising Russia’s long term strategic interests anyway.
Just as Russia, Iran et al do what they want regardless of sanctions, threats etc, so would the US, and to an even greater extent, since they are top dog and have a record of backing up their threats with actions.
Rather than confront directly and lose, (which, short of nuclear war, Russia would 100% lose in the ME as it is outnumbered 50/1 by US forces alone) Putin’s best successes have come when he found common ground and provided a 3rd option, for example, stopping Obama from invading Syria by destroying their chemical arsenal, or using Turkey’s opposition to Kurds to drive a wedge into Nato’s plans and so on… so it makes sense he will be angling towards mutually beneficial solutions, rather than play a US-style threatening game, certainly not in the media space anyway.
Putin and Biden both know Russia can stand up to the US on a strategic level, but that has operational limits, meaning, the level at which the US/Russia confrontation is playing out in Syria does not warrant Nuclear War, but Russia is outnumbered and anything it does to US troops can be done 10x worse to them at Latakia and Hmeymin, and then what?
The US benefits from many proxies that harass Russian troops. As far as i know, Russia does not have any proxies, and Syrian troops are fair game as far as the US military and international media are concerned. The closest would be Iran’s proxies, and even they have been given limits. All this talk of attacks on ‘US convoys’ in Iraq are just Iraqis killing Iraqis, no one is touching US soldiers anywhere for fear of direct retaliation on Iran. So what they gonna do?
Whether we like it or not, Russia is punching well above its weight, sure, it has nukes and a formidable military, but it is not the empire of the Soviet Union, while the US has become even more powerful compared to the cold war days. Can you imagine an incident like Beirut 1983 resulting in a US withdrawal today? No, it would be the start of a new war. Most importantly, unlike the first Gulf War in 1991, the US would not need 6 months to send troops and equipment over there, they already have enough hardware in the ME already to start WW3. So what you gonna do?
We really don’t know what was actually said. We will just have to wait and see…
I think Putin is aware of the spectre of the Soviet Union’s past, and has always tried to counter the perception of Russia being an ‘evil empire’ by expressing himself diplomatically and appearing mild and reasonable in the media. What you may perceive as weakness, could also be perceived as less threatening to others. Regardless, it is just PR. Those who need to know are well aware of Russia’s capabilities and not to cross their red lines, at least more so today than prior to 2015.
You may disagree with how he publicly promotes Russia’s interests, but one has to also admire Putin’s ability in exposing who the real evil empire actually is by just giving them enough rope to hang themselves by. You’d almost think the man studied judo or something…
Posted by: Et Tu | Jan 27 2021 10:02 utc | 111
Spot the capitalist double agent:
China’s GDP growth targets should be scrapped to help put cap on local government debt, top central bank adviser says
China should permanently stop setting annual economic growth targets, as its overall level of borrowing and debt is rising at the fastest rate since 2009, following the global financial crisis, according to a senior adviser to the country’s central bank.
Ma Jun, a member of the monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and its former chief economist, has outlined a number of risks facing the Chinese economy. He warned that continuing to set gross domestic product (GDP) targets may worsen the debt risks among local governments, which could increase their already high borrowing levels as they try to meet unrealistic growth goals.
Instead, Beijing should focus on stabilising employment and controlling inflation as its main macroeconomic policy goals, Ma said, according to a transcript of his remarks published on Monday on media site Sina.com. It was unclear when exactly his comments were made.
Further down the article Ma’s argument is developed:
“By emphasising GDP assessments, it is inevitable that some locals will falsely report the rate of economic growth,” he said, adding that many local officials often turn to borrowing to lift GDP growth, adding more debt even as their revenues continue to decline.
Ok, this may be a problem with the system. In the past, some provinces manipulated their numbers in order to meet their annual quotas. But those were accountancy tweaks – not outright falsification – and most of them only to gain 0.1% or so. It’s not like the entire Northeast is faking their growth so that +1% becomes +10%.
Besides, there’s no evidence that, in the long term, China’s GDP data is false. Greatest evidence for this is the West beginning to take China seriously, with the IMF ratifying its official numbers.
So, yes, data falsification is a problem in the socialist system – but it is not a structural problem, mainly because, in the long term, every agent depend on their reliability to survive as a society. In fact, we can argue data falsification is a bigger problem in the capitalist system.
Even if it was a structural problem in socialism, what does it have to do with controlling inflation and “stabilizing employment” [i.e. keep unemployment rates high]? Both are at very healthy levels in China. Besides, if data falsification is a problem, why should we trust China’s employment and inflation numbers? Does he have the real numbers? If he doesn’t, what is his educated estimation?
Going from problem with reliable data to controlling inflation and keeping unemployment rates high is a quantum leap in Ma’s logic. Quantum leaps only happen in the subatomic world, not in the social world.
The only answer I can think of is he’s a neoliberal (i.e. capitalist) by ideology. And these last paragraphs corroborate with that:
Ma suggested that Beijing consider relaxing some controls on capital outflows to alleviate the upwards pressure on the yuan exchange rate, to prevent it from becoming too strong, which would hurt China’s exports. Last year, the yuan gained more than 6 per cent against the US dollar.
Ma also expressed some optimism over the new presidential administration in the United States, listing it as the main potential upside opportunity for the Chinese economy this year, as President Joe Biden is likely to seek ways to work with China on the issues of climate change, public health and nuclear arms control.
Except that the Renminbi is not strong against the USD. It is still at the 6 to 1 ratio. In the 2000s, the RMB was well into the 4 to 1 ratio and I don’t think anybody was complaining. On the contrary: the USG itself considers the present-day ratio “currency manipulation” by China, and claims it should let the RMB freely fluctuate so it could value it in relation to the USD.
And it astonishes me Ma considers Biden’s election as the best thing for China’s economy in 2021. What the fuck does Biden have to do with the Chinese people’s efforts to rejuvenate their nation? This is Third World inferiority complex at its worst.
Posted by: vk | Jan 28 2021 12:25 utc | 187
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