Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 02, 2020

Iran's Parliament Is Helping Joe Biden To Rejoin The Nuclear Deal

President elect Joe Biden plans to renew the U.S. participation in the nuclear agreement with Iran. Trump had left the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which Iran and six other nations had signed. 

Biden is under pressure to attach preconditions for a U.S. return to the deal which Iran would not accept:

Biden and his team have been paying lip service to the notion of rejoining the JCPOA. However, the preconditions they have attached to such an action – Iran would have to return to full compliance first, and commit to immediate follow-on negotiations on a deal that would be more restrictive – were widely seen as a deal-breaker. The fact is, many of Biden’s closest advisers – including Secretary of State-designee Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor-designee Jake Sullivan – have indicated that Biden may have no choice but to continue the Trump policy of sanctions-based ‘maximum pressure’.

So far Biden himself had been somewhat ambivalent about the issue. But in a recent interview with New York Times columnist Tom Friedman he seems to reject the use of preconditions for a JCPOA return to get to a bigger deal:

The view of Biden and his national security team is that once the deal is restored by both sides, there will have to be, in very short order, a round of negotiations to seek to lengthen the duration of the restrictions on Iran’s production of fissile material that could be used to make a bomb — originally 15 years — as well as to address Iran’s malign regional activities, through its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

Ideally, the Biden team would like to see that follow-on negotiation include not only the original signatories to the deal — Iran, the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany and the European Union — but also Iran’s Arab neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Earlier this week, I wrote a column arguing that it would be unwise for the United States to give up the leverage of the Trump-imposed oil sanctions just to resume the nuclear deal where it left off. We should use that leverage to also get Iran to curb its exports of precision-guided missiles to its allies in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq, where they threaten Israel and several Arab states. I still believe that.

Biden’s team is aware of that argument, and does not think it is crazy — but for now they insist that America’s overwhelming national interest is to get Iran’s nuclear program back under control and fully inspected.
...
In their view, Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon poses a direct national security threat to the United States and to the global nuclear weapons control regime, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

“Look, there’s a lot of talk about precision missiles and all range of other things that are destabilizing the region,” Biden said. But the fact is, “the best way to achieve getting some stability in the region” is to deal “with the nuclear program.”
...
Then, Biden said, “in consultation with our allies and partners, we’re going to engage in negotiations and follow-on agreements to tighten and lengthen Iran’s nuclear constraints, as well as address the missile program.” The U.S. always has the option to snap back sanctions if need be, and Iran knows that, he added.

That is still a bit murky. Lift the sanctions that were put onto Iran by Trump to get back to the JCPOA but then introduce new sanctions on Iran for its non-nuclear missile program? That is NOT going to work.

Biden will have little time to make up his mind and to return to the deal. In response to the Israeli murder of Iran's top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fahrizade the Iranian parliament has taken steps to leave the limits of the nuclear deal unless the U.S. returns to it as soon as Biden is in office:

Iran’s top political chamber gave final approval to a bill forcing President Hassan Rouhani to end international nuclear inspections unless the U.S. lifts key sanctions by February, giving the incoming Biden administration just weeks to make a diplomatic breakthrough.

The powerful Guardian Council, a political and legal body made up of senior clerics and scholars, ratified the bill on Tuesday and made it a legal requirement, while extending the deadline for sanctions relief to two months, instead of one, Iranian state TV reported.

That would appear to give Rouhani’s government -- severely weakened since outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump walked away from the 2015 nuclear deal -- barely two weeks after successor Joe Biden enters office to make major strides toward brokering the removal of U.S. oil and banking sanctions.

The details of the new law are yet unknown. One part orders the government to lessen the IAEA oversight of nuclear sites in Iran. Another instruction is to create a stockpile of higher enriched Uranium that potentially could be used to further enrich to weapons grade levels:

The plan, among other things, requires the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) to produce at least 120 kg of 20-percent enriched uranium annually and store it inside the country within two months after the adoption of the law.

The new Iranian law is supporting Biden's argument that a fast return to the nuclear deal is the more assuring path than to bet on time and additional sanctions to gain additional concessions which Iran is anyway unlikely to give.

He should immediately lift the sanctions against Iran and fully reinstate the U.S. as a JCPOA member. Iran has said that it would return to all limits of the deal as soon as that has happened.

The big pipe dream of follow-on negotiation which also include Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can than be pushed out to a (much) later date.

Posted by b on December 2, 2020 at 17:20 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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There’s a string of really good comments coming through. here, MOA at its best.
Can only add
The Biden saber rattling toward Iran, is obveously aimed at the home US, for there consumption, placating disgruntled trumpsters.
Back channels may be doing and saying different.
agreement capable.

Posted by: Mark2 | Dec 3 2020 11:03 utc | 101

USAi sanctions are illegal coercion. They really annoy Putin as seen at the 6:00 mark in this interview of October 2018. You can see the anger in his face and hear it in his voice and the words are unmistakeable. I have not experienced him this angered before. Play it back a couple of times over those two minutes and let that sink in. And that was 2018!

There is much compensation due before restoring trust or confidence, if ever. Biden has no chance and Harris will no doubt do the cowardly thing and bully Panama or more likely Haiti.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 3 2020 11:12 utc | 102

This post is already obsolete:

Iran Rejects Possibility of Renegotiating Nuke Deal

It's either in or out. No in betweens.

Posted by: vk | Dec 3 2020 11:28 utc | 103

VK @ 103
Two sides negotiating, both talking very very tuff,
They will do a deal !
‘Counter intuitive’

Posted by: Mark2 | Dec 3 2020 11:55 utc | 104

Iran's legislative body approves bill on halting nuclear inspections

Like I said: the situation of the USA in Iran is very precarious.

Posted by: vk | Dec 3 2020 12:21 utc | 105

@85 powerandpeople

Exactly what are you smoking? Are you a liberal Zionist? That's some crazy delusional sh*t you wrote there.

****************
I agree that the JCPOA is a divisive instrument for Iran politically and socially and was designed precisely to be divisive, but awareness of that fact is part of the solution. People must be made aware that the JCPOA while economically attractive has an ugly side. Awareness that it is also a trap intended to weaken Iran's security should be factored into the negotiations. However, because the U.S. was the one to break the deal first, Iran has cards to play in the renegotiations to lessen the risk to its security.

What Iran needs most right now is solid economic footing. That is a unifying force, but the risks in getting there via the JCPOA must be made known to the public. People in Iran should be aware that the intent of the JCPOA is as a TROJAN HORSE pretending as a gift to Iranians. Knowledge of facts and reality is power: beware of the Zionist proxy, U.S., bearing gifts.

The Chinese and Russians are used to wrangling with skewed agreements of that ilk that favour the U.S./Zionist side and should assist Iran as honest brokers in protecting its interests. That's IF, Russia can be trusted to do right by Iran. For me, the jury's still out on Russia's honest intentions towards Iran.

Iran needs a deal to get its economy back to normal, however, China and Russia must play a big role in ensuring that deal is not a trap door for future war or interference in Iran's geopolitical independence.

Posted by: Circe | Dec 3 2020 12:29 utc | 106

It is entertaining to see some people, relieved at the thought that soon the Great Orange Ogre will no longer be up their ass, forgetting one of the most important lessons of the last couple decades: The USA is not agreement capable.

It is not a particular political figure that is not agreement capable. It is the United States itself that is not agreement capable. It is a systemic feature, not a transient weakness.

The notion that due to an election the United States will suddenly become agreement capable is pure infantile fantasy. While the Chinese will diplomatically take advantage of America's spastically shifting postures, there is no chance that they will be fooled into imagining that the empire has come to its senses and will now act responsibly. Though the Russians desperately wish for America to return to the fantasy paradise they imagined it to be from watching 1970s and 1980s American sit-coms and soap operas on pirated videocassettes back in the old Soviet days (note how Martyanov leads into his latest otherwise excellent and insightful article about imperial decline), having reality repeatedly slap them in the face time and again since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the destruction of Yugoslavia likely has driven this lesson about America's incapacity to honor its own words home for the Russians as well.

The question then is if Iran has taken this lesson to heart. The post by Oriental Voice @89 gives me a bad feeling about it: "China's eyes and ears in Iran have congealed up a picture that the general population of Iran are actually very much awe-struck by western soft-power, especially the young. They adore things western, like Russians used to back in the early 90's."

It doesn't matter how clear-headed the state is if their population is brainwashed by the enemy. We'll see if they get fooled again.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 3 2020 12:43 utc | 107

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 2 2020 19:26 utc

First and foremost, Biden will become POTUS as even Barr has admitted the election was essentially clean:
"To date, we have not seen fraud on a scale that could have effected a different outcome in the election"

Please try to read those diplomatic statements correctly and don't interpret into them. Barr said he "has not seen" evidence. That's purley matter of fact, because the DoJ are the last to "see evidence", it's simply not their turn because the DoJ is not yet investigating. The evidence was gathered by the Trump Campaign, not the DoJ, it gets presented to the courts, not to the DoJ. Of course Barr knows full well how the Democrats will read this and rejoice (and become ever more careless in their contempt of the constitution), while actually he politely said nothing.

Posted by: Matthias | Dec 3 2020 12:45 utc | 108

@106 Circe

That’s a way to see that, another way, under current circumstances, is to raise the question why should Iran negotiate matters of own national interest with a bunch of imperialist powers altogether. I mean, lets don’t ignore the push to even bring Saudi and UAE into JCPOA. This will be next if we follow the path of JCPOA logic by imperialists.

Iran could and should use the opportunity to announce that since the existing 4+1 doesn’t follow the obligations, JCPOA is dead but, Iran is ready to enter fact-to-face mutual dialog with every single country that have an issues to discuss and doesn’t allow third party interference in such bilateral dialog.

You tell me the risk is there that UNSC then act together, yes the risk is there, as they did before, but then again recognize the fact that we are already at the end of UNSC sanction games.

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 3 2020 12:53 utc | 109

Nothing exposes the COVID 19(84) hype quite like US sanctions on any country that refuses to "play ball" with our oligarchs.
Funny how it also seems to hinder the economies every where else at the same time conveniently right after the elite spent the last 40 years quadrupling their wealth.

Don't worry though, we'll be "back slidin' with Biden" here shortly.

Take it easy folks, the shit show must go on and we have no say in the matter what so ever. Stay sane and safe, don't let the bastards get you to do anything rash.

Posted by: dave | Dec 3 2020 13:03 utc | 110

I wonder if the Deep State might compromise on Iran and much else. US global power is declining rapidly. If the dollar crashes,their hegemony does also.

They may want to avoid humiliation and the image of being a paper tiger - so they might patch together some agreements with Iran and Venezuela to cover up. China isn't the only one that worries about saving face.

Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 3 2020 13:08 utc | 111

@ 111

"They may want to avoid humiliation and the image of being a paper tiger"

I'm not convinced these folks can be humiliated. They seem to just figure out ways to get revenge now that they know they're playing for the whole enchilada.

I'm waiting and watching the economic elite to see when or if they begin to jump ship any time soon. That will be the breaking point. I just can't see the powers that be compromising when they haven't had to for decades now.

Time will tell. The whole thing stinks since everyone but the elite suffer while the elite hide in their bunkers and their useful idiots in the government continue to lie, cheat, and steal for them.

This still smells like global socioeconomic reset to me. Biden is the best kind of useful idiot for these times for as long as he can remember how to read the script and not slide off into yet another dementia driven gaff or crap himself on stage.

Peace.

Posted by: dave | Dec 3 2020 13:31 utc | 112

@109 Framarz

How then do you see Iran resurrecting its economy?

What I'm saying is that the JCPOA, if its negotiated with the least amount of security risk for Iran, buys time while China and Russia can come up with a way to circumvent the financial tyranny of U.S. sanctions. China should prepare for the worst in this regard because there is mounting hostility directed at China now that China is rising as a global power, so it too will be dealing with the kind of financial tyranny being inflicted on Iran today. Zionist America will never accept a multi-polar world. If China wants to change that it must devise a successful way around U.S. sanctions. It must become indispensable in the global economy. If Iran, an ally of China, is between a rock and a hard place; it's because China has not arrived yet.

The JCPOA buys time until there is a better way out than negotiating ZUSA.

Posted by: Circe | Dec 3 2020 14:20 utc | 113

Correction: with ZUSA.

Posted by: Circe | Dec 3 2020 14:23 utc | 114

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 3 2020 12:53 utc | 109
“You tell me the risk is there that UNSC then act together, yes the risk is there, as they did before, but then again recognize the fact that we are already at the end of UNSC sanction games.”

End of UNSC sanction game? How, can you explain? if Iran had left JCPOA she already was under UNSC sanctions again, a position that not even Russia and China could support since they are permanent members and very much don’t want and shouldn’t reduce any UNSC power they have in formulating world affairs, (I suspect Iran and all smaller countries don't want that to happen) as US is intending and wants to take away any restraints or legal binding obligations UNSC has on her unilateral policies.

Framarz Jaan, I have been reading your comments for a while now? Conclusion you act as a “Nal e Varoneh” or “reverse horse show” do you know what that means?
You write and act as if you hate imperialist and the US and her middle east shit hole satrapies, but in reality what you expect and want Iran to do is a reactionary and unthoughtful positions that shit Pump (Pompegoeh) or Nutanyaboo were and are hoping Iran to take and do. As you see on replies you are not fooling anyone here; you need to find a more genuine persuasive angle, to me you don’t sound or even take positions as you are a Readneck (hardliner) Iranian. As the Iranian saying goes, you want to “ cut the head with a cotton ball”.
Iran unlike US should not openly declare she will leave the JCPOA for now, there is no reason to give the ball to the other side, not now, nevertheless she has as she did is reducing her commitments according to agreement, except for inspections. One wonder if they are running short of commentators in Tirana.

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 3 2020 14:38 utc | 115

Regarding the link posted at 105: Iran's legislative body approves bill on halting nuclear inspections

Under the new law, Tehran would give two months to the deal's European parties to ease sanctions on Iran's oil and financial sectors, imposed after Washington quit the pact between Tehran and six powers in 2018. Iran's government should also resume uranium enrichment to 20 percent and install advanced centrifuges at its Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities.

20% enriched U235 is defined as Highly Enriched Uranium. At 20%, HEU is "weapons usable", but to make a bomb or warhead that could be delivered by a plane or missile, the enrichment must continue. Weapons grade HEU is usually considered to have 90% enrichment. Going from uranium's natural state of 0.7% concentration of U-235 to 20% takes about 90% of the total effort required to get to weapons-grade.

Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 3 2020 14:38 utc | 116

Lorna@76, I got the site to open using the android version of the Brave browser.

Posted by: Morongobill | Dec 3 2020 14:56 utc | 117

Kooshy@44 - I dont vote, have only voted once my entire life. It is a proven waste of time.

However, back in '14 or '15 when I first heard trump was running my thought was I hope he wins as this will show once and for all how completely broken our system is, and this in turn would force sane, reasonable people to reassess and correct our situation.

I was partially correct. His win has shown how broken and dysfunctional our system is, but the other more important half of what I wished for has not come to pass. In fact just the opposite.

What I thought 5 or 6 years ago might be one last chance to save this country, has instead proven to be the final nails in the coffin.

As I have said before, glad I am old and don't have kids.

Posted by: visak | Dec 3 2020 15:06 utc | 118

Jackrabbit has mentioned on a few occasions of the possibility of a false flag attack before January 20th, I agree that is a major concern !
When we are dealing with psychopath nations (we know who they are) expect the unexpected. With the US in political transition it would be even harder to find the offender and easer for the perpetrators to get away with, suiting there sick master race agenda.
Vigilance should be top priority for all right thinking people.

Posted by: Mark2 | Dec 3 2020 15:27 utc | 119

Posted by: visak | Dec 3 2020 15:06 utc | 118


Thanks for your reply, I also don’t vote for US presidents anymore, as you said is waste of time, IMO people truly have no say and now even control in US elections, since the federal job candidates are pre-selected through the US corporate controlled media. Last time I voted for a US president, or congressperson was the year 2000 ever since the election mess in the USSC decision I have only voted for California state and local measures, since those measures can really affect our life in California.

Year 2000 was when I was much younger, information was not as widely available through alternative media in the internet, much of information and access was funneled through state controlled and licensed corporate media.

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 3 2020 15:39 utc | 120

Posted by: Lorna MacKay | Dec 3 2020 2:45 utc | 76 and others.

I also could not load the mid.ru/en site.

To fix my issue, I deleted the saved mid.ru cookies in my Firefox cache; to be clear, only the mid.ru cookies in my case. I can now load the site.

That may also be your issue ?

Posted by: mcs_ | Dec 3 2020 15:41 utc | 121

The Grayzone has a must watch discussion with Mohamed Marandi and Gareth Porter along with Anya Parampil and Max Blumenthal, almost two hours long, lots of audio problems with echo but worth every minute for most barflies: more like a class than a gripe session. Covers history that I didn't know, Marandi is impressive, was gassed twice in the Iran-Iraq war, gives more detail than I've ever seen. topics range from 1980s through to speculation about Biden admin. and Mid East this coming year. Israel, Iran, U.S. in depth, also some on Europe, Syria, Iraq.
My apologies if the link was already posted-- I haven't read all the comments here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z68ikVeVtcQ

Posted by: migueljose | Dec 3 2020 15:51 utc | 122

back in '14 or '15 when I first heard trump was running my thought was I hope he wins as this will show once and for all how completely broken our system is, and this in turn would force sane, reasonable people to reassess and correct our situation.
___________________________________________

There are two fundamental problems with that thought:
Sane reasonable people did not need trump to arrive at that assessment and they have never had the power to correct our situation. What trump has revealed is that there are not enough sane reasonable people

Posted by: jinn | Dec 3 2020 16:08 utc | 123

@ milomilo | Dec 3 2020 9:19 utc | 96.. thanks milo... that is at an end at the moment.. i said a few mean things to him which he hasn't published as a consequence!

@ sars... thanks... maybe some countries are using it too...

@ mcs_ | Dec 3 2020 15:41 utc | 121.. thanks.. i suspect that was the problem - too many cookies via that site...

Posted by: james | Dec 3 2020 16:32 utc | 124

@115 kooshy

Don’t start with that round of name calling, accusation and invention of ridiculous terms (“Pussy Poetry”), because then I must punch you back and let you experience the moment of “Aha!” again. Deliver a clear argument, say what you think and let others answer with their arguments. We have someone else among us here that is delivering the analysis from within the system (to be exact, a faction of ruling system in Iran). It would be constructive to let him answer me, then we all would learn a lot.
With all respect to MoA community, I’m not here to fool any of them, they are not even my target audience (think about that and digest it).

I have once formulated clearly that JCPOA is nothing but an old style colonial agreement.
You or anyone else who want to argue against, need to take the position in defence of JCPOA, as it is, then we can discuss every aspect to see who is wrnog.

Now listen good. China and Russia are not acting as partners of Iran. They had a major error in their calculations, they demonstrated completely wrong policy in UNSC, until it was too late. They have to correct own errors and it’s not because of Iran or Iranians, it’s because of their own interests. Once again, we are at the end of UNSC sanction games. More then maximum sanctions which are already in effect, is not possible. Time for Iran to leave this colonial agreement and stop dancing to the melody of other actors.

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 3 2020 17:40 utc | 125

Mr. Faramarz:

Why do you consider JCPOA a colonial agreement? Can you give us an example of such a colonial agreement, specially one that did not concern Iran?

Posted by: fyi | Dec 3 2020 17:51 utc | 126

Will the Deep State actors wake up to reality and compromise? Trump proved that sanctions and threats are ineffective when China/Russia can offer an alternative. I understand Venezuela is now putting out 500K barrels a day and the IMF expects Iran to return to growth next year. One way or the other, the US is defeated in Afghanistan and Iraq and will leave.

That's not all. The UN is a product of who won WWII as with the Security Council. Eventually, China may be able to claim that SCO should be its successor as honestly representing much or most of global population.

Biden's "Blob" can go on for years pretending the US is in charge while the dollar gets bypassed and infrastructure rots. Will these people get tired of being defeated?

Posted by: Eighthman | Dec 3 2020 18:08 utc | 127

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 3 2020 17:40 utc | 125

Faramarz, as suspected I don't think you understood meaning of any of those common (even translated) Iranian proverbs, I used, i still don't think you understand Pussy Poetry's true meaning. You see, this is why I wrote westerners (western mentality) never understood Iranians (iranian mentality), they only think everything and all is about Persian.

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 3 2020 18:27 utc | 128

sarz @99:

The digital yuan is already operational. There's nothing stopping you from getting some on your phone.

Yes indeed, not a bad idea to start hoarding digital yuan. The dollar is teetering on cliff's edge pending a free fall. Don't know about being able to buy them on a cellphone here in the United States though. However, an alternative to SWIFT has existed since 2015, China International Payment System (CIPS). Currency as a medium of goods/services exchange takes time to incubate, cultivate, and spread. I believe it'll take a decade or two for CIPS to get to the point of commanding equal status with SWIFT. Human psychology and habits die hard. However, the 4-years of Trump & Co. has probably sped up that turning wheel quite a bit. I expect to see Yuan, or a mix-basket currency denominated in RCEP member nations, will begin pulling weight in the 2025-2030 time frame. Not a bit too soon!

Bemildred @94:

China, Russia, Iran don't advertise their cooperation in geopolitics among themselves, but they do in earnest. They don't count on anyone's assistance as they embark on their decisions, but they usually do get the help they needed as events evolve. As OBOR matures, this axis of Euroasia is going to be much more conspicuous than it is thus far.

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Dec 3 2020 18:32 utc | 129

Posted by: Oriental Voice | Dec 3 2020 18:32 utc | 129

Yes, I agree. I think the point is that none of them wants to be the boss - a very healthy relationship - based on trust and experience, not patronage. And it's very noticable when compared with our western political circus. I am reminded again of Assad's statement: "I trust Russia". So what does he trust Russia to do? He trusts Russia not to take advantage of his weakness, he knows Russia is not in it for the money or a new empire. They want to do business and develop further, so the need a strong Syria, not another dependent/client. I would wager that Russia trusts Assad too.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 3 2020 19:00 utc | 130

@126 Fyi

Any agreement where the colonial/imperial power dictate borders, terms and conditions for the subject country is a colonial agreement. In JCPOA, Iran as the subject country had to accept terms and conditions related to use of a fundamental technology. Not enough with that, the imperial powers got the right of being accuser, prosecutor and the judge by questioning if those terms and conditions are followed accordingly. How would you characterize JCPOA. Fyi?

There are many such agreements that you don’t need me to pick for you but since you asked I pick Treaty of Wuchale for you. Italy dictating Ethiopia the degree of Ethiopian sovereignty within different parts of the Ethiopian land and subordinating Ethiopian foreigner policy to it’s own policy.

@128 kooshy

"Boro javoon!", I have tolerated your putting of Mr. Goodarzi’s hand in the pocket of Miss Shaghayegh time after time to don’t track off the subject, and you come tell me I don’t understand Persian proverbs? Hmmm ... If anyone in the house, knocking once would be enough!

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 3 2020 20:07 utc | 131

@113 Circe

How then do you see Iran resurrecting its economy?

While I was thinking about a proper answer, explaining mechanisms and solutions, I discovered some considerations. I choose not to answer this in an open discussion. Sanctions do damage Iran but they have also provided a lot of opportunities we were not aware about.

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 3 2020 20:31 utc | 132

Mr. Faramarz

Thank you for your elucidation of your definition of "Colonial Agreement".

I viewed it as a Long-Term Cease-Fire Agreement.

Americans decided to break it in order to destroy Iran.

They failed.

Now we are discussing the contours of shorter and more limited Cease-Fire deals between Iran and the United States (EU does not count) - in my view.

Posted by: fyi | Dec 3 2020 20:32 utc | 133

@133 Fyi

Ok, looks like my picking didn’t correspond to your approach, no problem.
Should I ask you pls. explain the anatomy of this “Long Term Cease Fire”? No, I don’t. It doesn’t bring us further. Should I ask you to show case why this was a “Long Term Cease Fire” and not a Colonial Agreement? No, I don’t.

But I want to know from you, why Iran still walk along the same path despite broken "Cease Fire"? You believe making it shorter would deliver desired outcome? You sure the enemy doesn't keep you captured in their own matrix?

... of course EU doesn't count, at least we are agree on one point. But if that's now part of the facts, then why we need to keep the current format with all extra seats?

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 3 2020 21:30 utc | 134

_AR_ | Dec 3 2020 0:05 utc | 58

An excellent point you made. US must approach the remaining participants to JCPOA as a supplicant; not in a position to DEMAND anything.

I dutifully read all the comments here (well, some I just scanned.)

It was always my conclusion that Iran had abandoned work on a nuke weapon by 2003; it was a path fraught with more peril than promise and not absolutely necessary for their security. Perhaps my conclusion was wrong, but none-the-less, in that light I then regarded it as "easy" for Iran to enter into that agreement - to negotiate away something they did not have, nor even really desire to have. That explains Iran's part: what was Obama's motivation? And I have to singularize this specifically to Obama because I'm sure that he knew full well that Congress would not ratify it - hell, many in his own party were wailing and gnashing their teeth over his diplomacy.

It would probably be generous to say that he did it because it was the right thing to do, but it's possible the reason has more to do with strategic pragmatism - it was the Obama administration after all that told us the US would be doing a "pivot to Asia," and better to have Iran OUR "friend" rather than China's. Not only does Iranian cohesion and functionality remain intact, Iran occupies a very strategic piece of real estate, and Iran's importance remains assured.

The US animosity towards, and conflict with, China has been stewing in the halls of US power for some time. Continuing with my line of reasoning, Trump and his minions had at their disposal a tool (the JCPOA) to hurt China with, more than all of the other actions they have tried to pursue. But because Trump was financially beholden to ultra-Zionists (Adelson, et. al.) he decided instead to do Israel's bidding. A real stable genius. And as previously said, Trump was operating within safe political waters as there's more chance I'll be elected POTUS than the US Congress would ever ratify the JCPOA.

So, returning to _AH_'s comment, if Biden is serious then he's trying to regain what was lost. Unfortunately, it has been irretrievably lost. But it will be a cold day in hell when I seriously consider anything Mr. Thomas Friedman says or writes. His only function is to assure the inhabitants of Emerald City of the continued omnipotence of "The great and powerful OZ."

I agree with the sentiment expressed elsewhere here that the US has over-played the sanctions hand, and continuing on that path will only now hasten the US demise. So stupid; suicidal actually.

Lastly, I don't believe for a minute that the leadership in Iran ever misread or failed to grasp the political quagmire in the US. Throughout it seems Iran has acted shrewdly, and what did they have to lose in trying? Certainly not a deliverable nuclear weapon.

some errata: some digging I've done in the past tells me that MEK is now just a fully-owned subsidiary of Mossad and the CIA operating within Iran. KSA is tasked occasionally wrt as a bag-man or conduit. The money trail is the main clue (sorry I don't have any links to provide.)

Posted by: vinnieoh | Dec 3 2020 22:03 utc | 135

Now listen good. China and Russia are not acting as partners of Iran. They had a major error in their calculations, they demonstrated completely wrong policy in UNSC, until it was too late. They have to correct own errors and it’s not because of Iran or Iranians, it’s because of their own interests. Once again, we are at the end of UNSC sanction games. More then maximum sanctions which are already in effect, is not possible. Time for Iran to leave this colonial agreement and stop dancing to the melody of other actors. Posted by: Framarz | Dec 3 2020 17:40 utc | 125

While I agree that China and Russia calculated badly on UNSC sanctions, and the JCPOA is a colonial insult, the Rubicon has been crossed, so now how does Iran get out of this catch-22; either war or heel to a colonialist agreement?

What would China or Russia do in this situation?

While providing serious messaging and samples on its damage capabilities; I think Iran should try to get the best possible deal, buying time for economic recovery.

The U.S. is divided and weakened, as demonstrated by the Trump regime, at a time when China is rising and seizing opportunities. This reality might favorably impact Iran in the future when Republicans return to scrap the deal again. By then, who knows, maybe Iran will be glad to have a way out of it.

If Iran had a way to recover economically in spite of the sanctions? However, even then, if there is no deal; Zionists and the Gulf Arabs will start beating the drums for war. It's a catch-22; and whichever way has risk.

Posted by: Circe | Dec 3 2020 22:21 utc | 136

Framarz aziz

The names you have thrown out I have no idea who they are, and I don’t know why you had to tolerate that ? What am I missing here, are they part of the the Tirana’s Iranian crowd? If so you, shouldn’t tolerate the bastards no Iranian will ever tolerate this SOBs.
Mr FYI is correct JCPOA was time limited ceasefire, US weapon in this was his sovereign economic instruments meaning USD and swift and her economic secondary sanctions, Iran’s weapon was some time limit on her nuclear activities. Mr Obama wanted and tried for full state sovereignty of Iran he failed at the end under pressure for EU he agreed to a time limited ceasefire economic relief vs some time limit on Iran nuclear activities. Mr. Trump promised he can force and take Iran’s full state sovereignty he failed he end up terrorizing Iranians and assassinating two their heroes he even threatened to assassinate Iran’s culture. True Iran is damaged economically but again just like Iraq war Iran showed the world can stand to bullying and defend her sovereignty. IMO the one who loosed was US, she showed she doesn’t have the power to bend Iran , specially when Iran declared and attacked US military
bases and US military didn’t have the balls to defend her bases. This a war no one is denying that and in wars one looses and win battles everyday. What IRI has stood for in past 40 years showed they are tougher than what the enemy expects.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 3 2020 22:57 utc | 137

It’s over then. Biden is far too constrained and he’ll be unwilling to “bow” to the Iranian demands because he still believes in American exceptionalism.

Posted by: Lex | Dec 4 2020 0:03 utc | 138

Mr. Faramarz

JCPOA had various intermediate and final time limits, it recognized Iran's sovereign right to uranium enrichment-something that the P5 had tried to take away from Iran (as well as other states), and it took away from US her nuclear wedge with which to hit Iran

If you want to scream about those Iranian weaknesses which caused her to concede to those limits, direct it at the late Shah Sultan Hussein and the Qizilbash Khans, one weak and unfit to be the king, the other perfidious fools that destroyed their own world 300 years ago

Posted by: Fyi | Dec 4 2020 2:32 utc | 139

Ms. Circe

You ask how would Iran recover from the wrecking of her economy by the United States?

The same way Spain, USSR, and Vietnam recovered from war, very gradually and on the basis of her own resources. Autoarky is the future of Iran for the next few decades.

Posted by: Fyi | Dec 4 2020 2:38 utc | 140

Mr. Vinnieoh

The strategic prize was to orient Iran towards supporting Western strategic interests.

That is now an impossibility.

Even neutral Iran is no longer on the cards for the Western states: they burnt their bridges to Iran - watched them burn while, like Nero, reciting the Hymn to Freedom.

Posted by: Fyi | Dec 4 2020 2:43 utc | 141

Dear Moon. . .


Anything regarding a future Biden administration is an exercise in delusion.

It will never happen.


So move on.

Posted by: Ed Wood | Dec 4 2020 2:59 utc | 142

Dear Ed Wood...eff off!

Posted by: Circe | Dec 4 2020 4:05 utc | 143

So while the murder of the Iranian scientist is getting all the attention, Ziofascist Tramp or Nutyahoo had an Iranian Commander killed on the Iran/Syria border with a drone strike.

iranian-revolutionary-guards-commander-reported-killed-in-drone-strike

Those militias must have a spy in their ranks. They have to smoke him out.

Posted by: Circe | Dec 4 2020 4:16 utc | 144

According to sources close to the administration Ziofascist Tramp told Pompeo Go wild on Iran without starting WWIII! in the final weeks of his Presidency.

Really??? So first he wanted to strike Natanz and already killing two high-ranking Iranians in one week including their security detail isn't something that could trigger war if Iran were to respond in kind ?!

Trump is bat-shit crazy! Lunatic psychopath.

Posted by: Circe | Dec 4 2020 4:47 utc | 145

My apologies to All commentators on this valuable blog. When there are Iran related topics ,I only focus on Iranian commentators , namely Kooshy,FYI,Faramarz , besides that I have read hundreds and hundreds of comments from them in 'Going to Tehran' years back, although Faramarz , I guess at that time wasn't present.
Anyway,I miss 'Empty' very much and also people like 'Bussed in Basij'and others.
Coming to my point,where I need the valuable input of especially FYI.
I am following Russian and Chinese news outlets very accurately since a few years and especially in the recent weeks I observe deep silence from both superpowers regarding Iran. Is this silence genuine, or just a tactical move to avoid confrontation with the Mad empire at this critical stage?
Pakistan and China last week or so , signed a defence bill, could it be that Both (China and Russia) are waiting for the right moment to step in , in favor of Iran (e.g. pending strategic partnership between CH & IRI).
China(BRI) and Russia need Iran and vice versa ). Where lies the problem?

Posted by: Sammy | Dec 4 2020 9:24 utc | 146

@139 Fyi

I notice that you avoid to answer even simple questions.

Of course I’m not going to unearth those who were long dead before 1979 revolution and keep them accountable. JCPOA was signed by Technocrats (government of Rouhani), it was praised by Theocracy (Khamenei called it “Heroic Flexibility”), these both factions thought they can get their legitimacy from western imperialists by signing a colonial agreement. Well, surprise, surprise, it didn’t work, they need compradors in charge, and there are other forces in opposition who fill in as trustworthy compradors. This shifting of your positions and acting as brave and smart anti-imperialists now, doesn’t change the facts.

Legitimacy comes from within. Hand the government to Nationalists, they have a political program better then yours to clean up this mess. You had 30+ years time to make Iran Autark but did nothing. You produced “Agha-zadegan” instead. Prepare the conditions to leave JCPOA. Iran don’t need to sit in the corner and face multiple imperialist powers at once in any negotiation.

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 4 2020 9:28 utc | 147

@146 sammy

I think after the elections in US, China and Russia are calculating how to re calibrate their geopolitical tactics. It can go both way.

While Iranian Nationalists are not the most progressive force to represent the anti-imperialist spirit of the 79 revolution, due their limited access to the power, they represent the real alternative for all patriots in Iran (Nationalist and Patriot are not the same).
If we had Iranian Nationalists in power right now, that would be great help to China and Russia to recalibrate correctly and not wrong, like what they did before JCPOA.

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 4 2020 9:48 utc | 148

@147 Faramarz

If you live in Iran , I recommend to listen and watch Dr.Seyyed Mostafa Khoshcheshm , a brilliant mind.
In Ofogh TV ( it was after the assassination of Shahid Fakhrizadeh),he brought the whole JCPOA Kabuki theatre to a very simple formula.
... Bring the Iranian peaceful nuclear program to a standstill through the pervert JCPOA ( and of course keep the maximum pressure sanctions of trump and pompegoh in place as leverage ), extent it to the ballistic missile program and then sabotage Iranian regional outreach ( Hastei,Moosshaki,Manthaghei), may be I can find the link to his comments and post it.
Of course I personally show a BIG "BILAKH" to the architects of this agenda, both outside and inside of Iran.


Posted by: Sammy | Dec 4 2020 9:53 utc | 149

Found it...

Telewebion.com/episode/2439420

Posted by: Sammy | Dec 4 2020 10:03 utc | 150

laughing at people who lament at MOA’s recent articles , and claiming B sold his soul.

have you seen Sic Semper Tyranis blogspot ran by ex DIA Col Patrick Lang ???

it was a blog full of veterans from all nations and they have top notch articles and discussion board , since trump victory 2016 it slowly become a cultish trump site with the Colonel himself dropped his mask of fairness and become slobbering trump supporters..

LATEST SST post = Gina Haspel head of CIA dead due to the special force raid in getmany server farm , KIA or WIA due to the shootout between CIA and US special force.. in germany..

let that sink in.. the ex DIA colonel now become the spreader of conspiracy theories even a child know it false..

Posted by: milomilo | Dec 4 2020 10:14 utc | 151

Posted by: milomilo | Dec 4 2020 10:14 utc | 151

Yes, OffGuardian is another formerly useful site that descended into madness and has never recovered. There are quite a few of those sites around now, all begging for money non-stop too. So I assume our plutocratic overlords have been throwing lots of their money around trying to convince us we really like their self-centered incompetence. Col. Lang's site used to be interesting at times, but he went all in with the Russiagate bullshit and has never really recovered. Trump deranges people, it's a gift.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 4 2020 10:58 utc | 152

Ed Wood @142:


Anything regarding a future Biden administration is an exercise in delusion.

It will never happen.

So move on.

That seems like a very confident prognosis. It looks to me like the establishment is committed to charging ahead with the crucifixion of Trump no matter the cost to their own credibility or the stability of American society. What makes you think this is unlikely to happen?

Unless of course you are forecasting a Harris administration instead. The establishment would go with that.

Posted by: William Gruff | Dec 4 2020 11:44 utc | 153

@ Bemildred

Don't you mean it's a grift?

As an ex-Trump supporter, anyone who still supports and believes Trump past 5-10 days post the election day is a full scale Trump cultist or a grifter.

Posted by: Smith | Dec 4 2020 12:17 utc | 154

Posted by: Smith | Dec 4 2020 12:17 utc | 154

RE: "grift"

That cracked me up. Well, I meant what I said, but "grift" works too. I read yesterday I think it was that Trump has raised $150 million since the election to "defend his win" etc. But he does make people crazy too, really good at that. A very needy guy. Hmmm. I would never vote for Trump, or Hillary, or Biden, but I confess I gave once money to Obama. Hope dies last, eh? Never again.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 4 2020 12:29 utc | 155

@ Bemildred

To be honest, this year has been eye-opening to me.

I'm a right winger, economically "liberal", social conservative and all that but right wingers this year disappoint me greatly (from US, to Europe, to Asia), it feels like they aren't really for real, blood and nation and all that, it's all about the money, the GRIFT, or worse, short-term money.

That's why they are anti-mask, and are anti-lockdown and anti-stimulus/welfare, it's all about maintaining the money and what little pleasure they still have.

I'm slowly turning into a left winger by the gods.

Posted by: Smith | Dec 4 2020 12:36 utc | 156


Posted by: milomilo | Dec 4 2020 10:14 utc | 151

I always thought of Lang a similar character to Marlon Brando, in Apocalypse Now. i once wrote that in comment, i guess he liked it since he didn't banned me on that. On news of Trump getting 3 billion to send some US troops to KSA for protection he banned me commenting US military is now a mercenary force. He is a old redneck Military trained guy, I knew he was more heart by Trump decision to sell the Troops to MBS then my comment.

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 4 2020 13:39 utc | 157

Posted by: Sammy | Dec 4 2020 9:24 utc | 146

With getting closer to Iran’s coming elections, the topic of JCPOA and Iran’s relation with west is being pushed to front by western media and their supporters and their army of commentators, is obvious by number of clips and comments, in the beginning Zarif and Rouhani are target as the traitors and as seen with Faramarz (over the border) now SL is also target he wants to have nationalist (he doesn’t say who the nationalist now days?) to take power. All this new focus is to drag the JCPOA and relation to west to election, the calculation is having Iran’s relation with west and failure and economic failure of JCPOA can make the ground ready for a volatile election that can produce a color revolution. Iranians should be aware what the plans are and what the real MFo tractors and MEK are trying to drag Iran to. This was the real reason for killing Dr. Fakhrizadeh. Buyer be aware. Faramarz on his first comment it was obvious what his angle is and where he wants to drag the discussion and conclusion to.

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 4 2020 14:11 utc | 158

Posted by: Smith | Dec 4 2020 12:36 utc | 156

I'm slowly turning into a left winger by the gods."

Yep, it's all about the Benjamins, and that ain't no way to run a country.

I was raised progressive, my mother was a pinko, sort of, but socially conservative when it comes to mores etc. Everybody is equal but you shouldn't interbreed or go to their church. But right-to-work, tax the rich, no money in politics, no Jim Crow, and generous welfare for anybody who needs it. You could do worse.

I think all of us who are not just in it for the money need to form our own party or take over one of theirs. Or maybe just start over. It's been the Supreme Court that has fucked things up here too, over and over. Citizens United was the last straw, it broke the camels back. One clown in office after another these last few years. Government by grift.

But enough rambling.

I just don't believe in the left-right dichotomy any more, it is bullshit just like the rest of it. The proper distinction is between greedy sociopaths and the rest of us who give a shit about each other and the planet and seeing what can still be done for the future of the human project.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 4 2020 14:26 utc | 159


IMO, Iran should not open or enter to any new negotiation with the west until after Iran’s elections, Dr. Zarif said the same thing yesterday no new negotiations, As matter of fact I believe Ayatollah Khamenei himself and SNSC should once again emesis there would be no new negotiations with West/US what so ever, Unti US starts implementing her JCPOA obligations and officially condemns assassination of Iran’s scientists and officials. Which falls well after Iran’ elections and with Iran’s new administration. Let's make a reasonable condition that people of Iran including our own resident troll say they want and make something that US can't do. let's make the burden on them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOhsClUcpcA&feature=youtu.be

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 4 2020 14:37 utc | 160

Mr. Faramarz

Mustapha Kemal Pasha was a Muslim autocrat just like so many others like him, before or after.

He pushed through, by fiat, certain structural reforms in a rump Ottoman Empire and put in place a limited representative government system in place.

But on 3 major issues: Human Rights, Freedom, Rule-of-Law he was a failure.

Unless you want to support his expulsion of the poor Pontics, his frequent imprisonment of his political opponents as fine examples of statesmanship to be emulated.

His cultural policies, pushing the Western European exterior culture on Turks was another disaster.

As for the Iranian Nationalists - there is no single Nation in Iran, there are multiple ones - Kurds and Azeris come to mind. Tehran is the greatest Turkic city in the world today; a little knowledge of Turkish - any variant - will get your issues resolved anywhere in that city. But what keeps those diverse people together is the Shia Religion - that is the salient feature of that state which most people do not seem to grasp.

As for self-styled Nationalists; the Iranian people rejected them in 1979 and elected to follow the religious classes in order of advance their interests. As far as I have been able to discern, no alternative formulations have been forthcoming from the so-called Nationalists to the complexity of governing Iran.

Per your own statements, and in my opinion, the Nationalists, once in power, will introduce their own "Agha-zadeh"s to wealth and privilege.

If you be a Nationalist, you ought to take great pride in the Islamic Republic of Iran, having made the Iranian power felt on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea, something without precedent since the time of the Achaemenid Empire. In the Levant, Iran has not been an agent since before the collapse of the Sassanid Empire.

Posted by: fyi | Dec 4 2020 15:31 utc | 161

Mr. Kooshy

Everyone knows that there would be no negotiations, not until Iranians have remedied their shortcomings and vulnerabilities - a generational task, which brings us to 2040.

Pretending that there could be negotiations is a posture for the consumption of the weak-minded.

Posted by: fyi | Dec 4 2020 15:35 utc | 162

Mr. Sammy:

I am reminded decades ago, China helped Iran build the UCF factory in Isfahan; when US objected, they withdrew, but not before they had transferred the knowledge of how to build it themselves to Iranians.

In South Pars, currently, Chinese sub-sub-contractors are working, but I do not know the details. I have noticed, over the last 10 years, Western press no longer mentioning Iranians' need of Western technology for their oil & gas fields. I imagine Iran can get what she needs from China.

We are witnessing several technological advances in Iran: the ability to build and field jet fighters (fuselage, engine, avionics), solid fuel rockets, precision rockets, spoofing of drones & electronic warfare, rocket engines etc. Did Iranians build all of those from scratch or did someone transfer critical pieces of technology to them?

Both China and Russia understand that the survival of independent Iran is in their national interest but they do not need to articulate it by their Foreign Ministers in public fora. Why should they publicly associate themselves with a country that so many in the US and Europe viscerally hate?

Posted by: fyi | Dec 4 2020 15:49 utc | 163

Posted by: fyi | Dec 4 2020 15:49 utc | 163

You forgot tunneling and metro systems with chinese equipment, Tehran Metro is the fast growing metro system in world.
Her in los angeles Los Angeles metro has advanced only 9 miles since 1980s when they started. in 1980 Tehran didnt even have metro nevertheless Shiraz Isfahan Tabriz Mashhad, etc.

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 4 2020 16:02 utc | 164


Javad Zarif
@JZarif

·
12m
Here's what
@HeikoMaas
& E3 must do before speaking abt what Iran should do: Stop despicable #CovidApartheid Honor your obligations under UNSCR2231 & stop violating JCPOA End YOUR malign behavior in OUR region: $100B arms sales to Persian Gulf & blind support for Israel terror.

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 4 2020 16:28 utc | 165

Mr.FYI,

Exactly what I had predicted you would opine,thanks a lot.

Posted by: Sammy | Dec 4 2020 16:31 utc | 166

This is the Iran position till her new president is elected and in office.

https://twitter.com/s_m_marandi/status/1334814450386395136

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 4 2020 16:54 utc | 167

@165 Kooshy

Mr. maas is a retarded Sauerkrautfresser, like her ueber zionist boss merkel.
macron and boris are no exemption.
All 3 trying to overtake each other in the "Knechschaft" of the zionist regime, it was always like that.
Now add to it, ksa,uae and bahrain,artificial entities joining with a fantasy entity created by west, what a mess...
Better not to articulate what I think of rohani and Zarif , time will tell.

Posted by: Sammy | Dec 4 2020 17:01 utc | 168

This is a smart move by Iran to avoid making JCPOA and negotiations a condition of Iran elections

https://twitter.com/s_m_marandi/status/1334814450386395136

Apparently is not well received in Tel Aviv and Tirana

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 4 2020 17:03 utc | 169

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 4 2020 17:03 utc | 169

Tirana? Seem to be missing something here.

Posted by: LeaNder | Dec 4 2020 17:11 utc | 170

Better not to articulate what I think of rohani and Zarif , time will tell.
Posted by: Sammy | Dec 4 2020 17:01 utc | 168

Sammy
Exactly good move whatever opinion of Zarif, Rouhani and system you have keep it for after Iran’s election. Iran don’t need and can’t afford an American 2020 type of election, more than ever she needs to have the unity and calm , remember the 2009 election right after Obama election. Iran election should not once again be a debate on Iran nuclear file. That’s a national security and integrity of Iran

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 4 2020 17:14 utc | 171

KNECHTSCHAFT that is....

Posted by: Sammy | Dec 4 2020 17:14 utc | 172

Mr. Sammy

Chinese and Russians got paid for whatever Iranians have obtained from them.

Posted by: fyi | Dec 4 2020 17:19 utc | 173

Mr. FYI

Sure, very very soon 5 G will be operational in parts of Tehran, it doesn't take much thinking of who is providing the technology.
Now the uk incest insulaner want to ban Huawei and work with ericson or nokia, loosers among each other so to say.
China had build 700 000 5 G base stations in 2020 and 1 million will be added in 2021.
In 2020 the high speed rail lines in China exceeded 36 000 km, beyond belief and it goes on and on and on...

Posted by: Sammy | Dec 4 2020 17:35 utc | 174

thanks for those commenting on iran with some knowledge.. the comments are fascinating..

milomilo | Dec 4 2020 10:14 utc | 151 and @ Bemildred | Dec 4 2020 10:58 utc | 152.. pat lang has lost his way... that is how i see it.. as for the guardian - i agree bemildred... it went rogue a number of years back and has never been the same...

Posted by: james | Dec 4 2020 17:35 utc | 175

Posted by: LeaNder | Dec 4 2020 17:11 utc | 170

are you the same LeaNdar of SST?


Referring to MEK terrorist traitor group supported by US, EU, Israel and KSA to conduct terrorist acts inside Iran , they were moved by US and France from Iraq to Tirana Albania after fall of Saddam they have a big number of troll internet bloggers and commentators in their confined camp paid by KSA and UAE their aim is at younger Iranians to disinform and promote distrust and negativity in their own capabilities. After a while is easy to recognize them , like Hasbara supporters they will not admit if they are member or a supporter but after a while reading the trajectory of comments they are usually easy to recognize.

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 4 2020 17:42 utc | 176

Fyi | Dec 4 2020 2:43 utc | 141

I believe that's what I said.

?

The US lost that effort (imo) in the years between '53 and '79, when in concert with Israel they created SAVAK for the Shah. Further reinforced that defeat by coming to the aid of Sadam during the Iran/Iraq war, and later by helping Sadam re-arm after Iran fought him to a standstill with all that military largesse bestowed by the US on Iran during the years of the puppet Shah's rule. (Prior to '79 revolution Iran was rated as world's 3rd largest military.)

some more errata and btw: digging into the history of the Iran/Iraq War, it was not only the US that supplied Sadam with chemical weapons but also Spain, Netherlands, France, and yes - USSR. Again, no links to provide; those interested will have to do their own research.

@161: Obviously I'm not Iranian, ME'ern, Muslim; just an aging agnostic working-class schmuck in rust-belt USofA. My conclusions and speculations based on digging inspired by interest not to see any more death and destruction perpetrated by my sick misguided nation. Would be interested to know if you believe my conclusions/speculations are erroneous or off the mark. When I take my last breath I will continue to hope that humanity might somehow survive, in spite of all my life's experience that it may not. I have two children and a grandson; but, absent those, all of humanity is my family.

Here's something I'd specifically like an opinion on (from any knowledgeable party.) Could Iran successfully defend against an invasion/occupation of it's most southeastern province? After reading about KSA Salafist activity in the Balochi regions of Iran/Afghanistan/Pakistan and believing Salafist jihadis to be de facto US proxies of destabilization and "revolution", and believing further that US in Afghanistan for purposes of denial against China, my mind hatched the following scenario, which I've expressed here on at least one other occasion:

Balochi unrest intensifies in SE Iran, US uses "political, religious, and ethnic persecution" as pretext for R2P intervention - invasion of SE Iran to set up a Balochi "protectorate" just large enough to construct heavy rail line from Afghanistan to port now under construction on the coast, and thereby access Afghanistan's mineral wealth. Yes I know it's a bizarre and farfetched thought, but is it any more cracked than the invasion and occupation of Iraq? Despite all the US bluster and saber rattling, I don't believe US will directly confront China but will continue on its many-faceted campaign of hybrid warfare. This far-fetched scenario would fit that strategy. Admittedly, much has transpired wrt US/KSA relations since the stories about Balochi unrest appeared, and this prospect - if it ever existed - has probably passed. "Balochi" is not even in the MSM lexicon and we always get heavily propagandized here before the hammer falls, so there's that also. However, the empire mongers of the US are effing crazy. Ever since this thought occurred to me I've tried to eradicate it, but it just won't go away.

Posted by: vinnieoh | Dec 4 2020 17:47 utc | 177

Posted by: vinnieoh | Dec 4 2020 17:47 utc | 177

Your memories of the 80s sound like what I remember. At that point the Islamic Republic was the kidnapper of our noble diplomats, I dunno if they had any friends at all back then.

---

I remember Balochistan was a common subject 10-15 years ago, but I don't see it much, since Trump I think it would be.

Iran appears to me to be well-arranged to defend itself, better than any time since the revolution. That's what the Izzies and Uncle Sugar and the Yurpeans are upset about really. Which is not to say that there won't be plenty of death & destruction, but it will be shared, and they look pretty competent, if you see what I mean.

Pakistan appears to be all in on the belt & road, and near as I can tell wants to get along with Iran, so they won't help.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 4 2020 18:07 utc | 178

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 4 2020 17:42 utc | 176

Thanks kooshy, yes, same, same.

Ok, now I understand. Not sure about Tirana now and then. But strictly I recall we did have Marxist Leninist Groups over here with ties to Tirana or Enver Honcher too. Training there. I vaguely remember some cadres, but is quite some time ago, 70s? By now and for much longer now such historical connections don't matter anymore, I would assume. I do vividly recall them surfacing in high profile US foreign policy circles, were obviously the Israeli connection is a given. And yes, that definitively happened before the Obama admin. If you have US friends, you seriously feel you still need Tirana?

Posted by: LeaNder | Dec 4 2020 18:12 utc | 179

Sorry, kooshy, Enver Hoxha, I seem to recall they pronounced it as I transcribed in my language:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enver_Hoxha#Partisan_life

Posted by: LeaNder | Dec 4 2020 18:22 utc | 180

Mr. vinnieoh

I cannot answer your hypothetical scenario, I lack military expertise.

But I can offer the following question:

"Can an invading army maintain control of what it has conquered indefinitely? Decade after decade after decade?"

Posted by: fyi | Dec 4 2020 18:58 utc | 181

Posted by: LeaNder | Dec 4 2020 18:22 utc | 180

Yes I remember him, back in seventies among colleague leftist he was apparently a hero. Now I guess Albania is completer the opposite, an alt right zioanglo satrapy ? Whatever Alabamian was and is, Albania mange’s to be an insignificant state like many other Eastern European states most of all Poland.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 4 2020 19:05 utc | 182

Bemildred | Dec 4 2020 18:07 utc | 178

The reporting I referred to was in the last several years (during Trump); establishment of Salafist madrasses in that region, incitement to violence against Shia "apostates," a deadly attack on an Iranian police outpost in Iranian Balochistan. Also read some supporting history of Balochi resentment towards just about every ruling regime (incl. historically) in all three of those nation states.

My understanding is that India is involved in the port development on that coast and other infrastructure and Iranian population presence there is probably increased also, so defensive presence is probably also increased.

I just don't trust our loons. Despite how self-destructive US trajectory seems, they seem determined to stay on that course.

Posted by: vinnieoh | Dec 4 2020 19:08 utc | 183

fyi | Dec 4 2020 18:58 utc | 181

Yes, I'd thought of that also; it's not just the getting, it's the keeping. Other than a three year stint as a grunt I have no military expertise either, but am forced to think along those lines because my government is all about it.

Posted by: vinnieoh | Dec 4 2020 19:14 utc | 184

No one will dare to open a direct military confrontation with Iran nevertheless an invasion. Those who think of invasion or a direct military confrontation with Iran have no idea of the size or the train and or sentiment in and outside of Iran’s military. What will happen and will continue for decades to come is proxy wars, terrorist attacks inside Iran, with a focus to make the Iranians feel insecure inside their own country and yes above all economic warfare to make Iranians rise against their own revolution. If Iranians are smart as they have been in this past 40 years none of this will be effective to change Iran’s direction. For forty years Iranians have heard of US or Israel is about to attack any moment they are full of it. As matter of a fact no one inside Iran any longer thinks US or Israel have the balls to attack Iran.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 4 2020 19:45 utc | 185

Have chores to do - have to run. Will check this thread later.

Kooshy: to my eye, that's what I see also. But, as I've said several times, US leadership is completely off the rails.

Posted by: vinnieoh | Dec 4 2020 19:54 utc | 186

Coming Biden Adminstration as well as US military with a shaky internal and external legitimacy plus a track record of total defeats in earlier adventures, will be consumed with so much internal US problems that they will have minimal energy and resources for new uncertain policies. The way I am seeing the vast spreading poverty, race and income disparity in US who ever don’t seal peace and advocate hubris must have his head examined.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 4 2020 19:56 utc | 187

Posted by: vinnieoh | Dec 4 2020 19:08 utc | 183

Modi is having trouble making up his mind which side to be on, I think. I had the impression that Iran was not pleased with Modi. India seems to want to re-acitvate its north-south corridor, but I haven't seen anything but wishes yet. The problem is both Pakistan and Iran are all in with belt & road, and India is not on good terms with China, Pakistan, Iran.

So with regard to your theory, I'm sure they would like to.

I think your worries are well-founded in the sense that we are governed by self-obsessed loons, but I haven't seen much reason to think the Balochi independence movement was getting anywhere. I'm out here in TV-land just like you, so I'm not tieing myself to the mast here or anything.

Modi is a subject in himself, and not a very rewarding one.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 4 2020 20:02 utc | 188

Sounds like what Kissinger told Mao and didn’t work. If US were to attack Iran she would have done so in 90s or even early 2000s when Iran, internationally, internally and militarily was much weaker. As witnessed with Iran’ direct military attack on US bases during Trump regime and its hawks, Iran showed she is not afraid of a direct war with US, any true super power claimant was expected to retaliate and stabling her unchanged power she didn’t/ US military didn’t why? Because they understand this not about a US Iran confrontation on Iran soil. This immediately becomes a total regional wars uncontrollable from Hindo Kush to eastern Mediterranean Sea including the anglozio pearl of Israel.IMO, End result of such conflict will be a reverse migration from Israel which means and end of anglozio project and perhaps the end of Mediterranean Sea being a total NATO controlled body of water.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 4 2020 20:14 utc | 189

I already see the reserve migration in Los Angeles back in late eighties and 90s most of small construction sub contractors were either Iranian or Armenians now
Most of small subcontractors are young Israelis who have done mandatory IDF time and left Israel for work and security still they have to go back for month in summer if they don’t want to be prosecuted.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 4 2020 20:19 utc | 190

@161 Fyi

Again you choose to take the path to the desert of Karbala instead of discussing the issues I raised. Anyway what I wrote still there, you can come back with related and to the point reply, if you feel so later.

About Nation and it’s meaning I noticed some misunderstanding that you have common with our other friend, acting as the Iranian cheerleader or “mammad booghi” of the MoA community. Let clear up ...

Nation-building is a process directly related to the Market. In entire human history you are not going to find a single Nation without a pre-existing Market. This mean that first come Market then come Nation. Iran is not a multi-national country, it’s a multi ethnic country. Azaris, Gilanis, Mazanis, Baluchs, Turkmens, Kurds, Arabs, Lors, Fars, ... are all ethnic groups that make the Iranian Nation because they are all attached to the Iranian specific Market within defined borders, rules and structures and culture (among others, Shia dominated religion).

Now to the question of who are Nationalists in Iran, another common (alleged?) misunderstanding.
Of course we are not talking about “Jebheh Melli” or “Nehzate Azadi” which were the core of nationalist movement per-revolution. We are talking about those economical forces that backed the political agenda of ex president Ahmadinejad.

The 79 revolution was a national-democratic revolution. This means that the revolution should solve contradictions related to the national issues (Independence) and democratic issues (Freedom and Social Justice). Soon after the revolution, democratic forces were eliminated by a united Technocrat-Theocratic front, assisted by western intelligence. The working class political advocates are not allowed to act legally since then.
What remained of the revolutionary opposition (loyal to the objectives of 79 revolution and not western made/backed opposition) after mid 80’s was just the nationalist opposition as a latent movement in the society without a traceable political leadership. (how lucky one could say, a known leadership and organizational structure would be easy to eliminate). This movement was the first row clientele of Ahmadinejad’s political and economical agenda, limiting World Bank and IMF authority, limiting multinational access to the market, initiating national projects like “Sahame Edalat”, “Maskane Mehr” and hundreds of other projects empowering Iranian domestic manufacturers and industries.

This is so time-consuming, specially done in 4th language, I should start charging for my time ...

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 4 2020 20:49 utc | 191

Mr. Faramarz:

You be wrong again, Armenians and Koreans and Japanese were nations before a market ever existed.

The English colonists, in their interactions with indigenous people of North America, considered it populated by many nations, some of them, such as the League of Iroquois, they considered to be civilized nations.

On the other hand, in Algeria, or Tunisia, there obtains a Market - but there are no nations in those two countries.

You need to move away from the European sociological models and consider the multiple overlapping identities that permeates the souls of actual human beings.

Posted by: fyi | Dec 4 2020 20:58 utc | 192

Faramarz
Thank you for compering me to a national icon (Mammad Boghi) I as well as all Iran have a lot of respect for him, IMO no one has ever cheered and supported Iran National soccer team like (Mamad Boghi) has. I hope I be a tenth effective supporting Iran’s national inspiration as he is, unlike the trolls and mofo traitor terrorists cultists in Alabamian.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 4 2020 21:10 utc | 193

@192 Fyi

Why you give the credit to the Europeans? It's the current state of universal science just like not believing on god is a universal tendency and not a western invention. Tell me about your "multiple overlapping identity" thingy, I hope it's a bit more mature then your theory of "Long term Cease-Fire".

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 4 2020 21:11 utc | 194

@193 kooshy

Eyyy mamad ...! since when traitors in Albania present Ahmadinejad as a nationalist Icon?

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 4 2020 21:14 utc | 195

@192 Fyi

I forgot to add the following PS to my comment:
I'm not going to tolerate or take it serious if you come with School of Frankfurt nonsense.

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 4 2020 21:18 utc | 196

Mr. Framarz

Sociology is an empirical observational science, like Field Biology, and while some broad conclusions may be drawn - akin to the observation that the digestive tract is common to all animal body architectures - Sociology is not a universal science; it does not explain, how Muslim societies can even function or why Dalits and the institution of Temple Prostitution of their women persists all over India.

A Sikh in the United Kingdom is subject to multiple overlapping identities - as a Sikh, as a member of the "farmer cast", as a Punjabi, as an Indian, and finally as a British subject.

And in now way is he Modern - like a Frenchman or a Swiss and it is only with utmost personal effort can one gain a glimpse of what being a person in his position could be.

Posted by: fyi | Dec 4 2020 21:20 utc | 197

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 4 2020 21:14 utc | 195

since when traitors in Albania present Ahmadinejad as a nationalist Icon?

East ask your handler, since Ahmadinijad became revisionist contrarian. I know some one who was a stanch supporter of Karubi and Mussavi tuning against Ahmadinijad in 09 , his hope was they can create enough chaos that brings an end to the revolution . Now that same guy who was total against Ahmadinijad and was propagandist of stolen revolution is total supporter of Ahmadinijad with same hope that Ahmadinijad can most the water in coming election.
Body you are not unique nor you are fooling anyone.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 4 2020 21:28 utc | 198

Faramarz
Where ever you are and regardless of your angle, your arguments here, not only are not substantive or logical they are childish, not even a “Gehrghreh” presentation they are more of “Tanghieh” injection.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 4 2020 21:38 utc | 199

Not really surprising. Iran needs the sanctions lifted. The globo Zionist and elite are still about Halford Mackinder's world domination via the heartland. I'm also guessing the elite are still down with disposing Assad, which a deal with Iran should facilitate. Israel is the interesting winner or loser here. The evangelical Israel firster is too up Bibi Netanyahu's wahoo to realize he is corrupt liability for the globo elite. I think this might be the more fascinating angle to watch. When does a friendly regime change happen in Israel? Biden can pull it off...well his administration since it will be a Jewish foreign affairs team. Joe will likely be just pulling dog tail in the shower. Thank god I am now part of the resistance and the neocons are now property of the liberal's.

Posted by: Old and Grumpy | Dec 4 2020 21:51 utc | 200

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