Do not think the US is acknowledgment or acceptance capable.
How much demonstration is required?

Posted by: old Bill | Dec 7 2020 19:10 utc | 1

So ... now that Biden's Interregnum gambit has failed, U.S. Deep State is free to move ahead with a Trump second term?

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 7 2020 19:16 utc | 2

I think the JCPOA was simply designed to buy time to allow for regime change to work in Iran and Syria. In the mean time, any violations by Iran could be used as a justification for war. Since no regime change took place in either Iran or Syria, the JCPOA will be used as a pretext for war when Iran rejects the unacceptable conditions proposed.

All in line with the Brookings Institute’s “The Path to Persia”.

Posted by: Kevin | Dec 7 2020 19:18 utc | 3

Joe Biden couldn't find his ass with both hands. Besides he isn't President yet, maybe never.

Posted by: par4 | Dec 7 2020 19:29 utc | 4

The US congress will not allow Biden to accept the Iranian offer, even if he might wish to. We see John Brennan now condemning the Trump team's assassinations of Soleimani and Fakhrizadeh and criticizing Netanyahu = as if to give Biden some cover, perhaps, to soften the US stance, but the congressional leadership supports assassinations, sanctions, and intervention more generally. While theoretically the Executive branch has a fairly free hand in matters of foreign policy, as a practical matter they cannot stray far from the established track without congressional support (except covertly). Biden might have a chance with arms control and Russia, but otherwise I don't expect any significant change - barring some unforeseen major event.

For all those lauding Trump for not starting any new wars his predilection was for under the table violence, financial warfare, and lawsuits to accomplish his objectives. 'War by other means' He is a shyster, con-artist, and a sneak. That's why he got on so well with Bebe - birds of a feather.

Posted by: the pessimist | Dec 7 2020 19:32 utc | 5

The European governments try to strengthen what they perceive as the "moderates" in both the USA (Biden) and Israel (Gantz/Ashkenazi). In regards to Iran they seem to be content with the current status.

Posted by: m | Dec 7 2020 19:35 utc | 6

thanks b.. i will read crookes article... meanwhile, biden refers to maduro as a dictator.. does anyone think biden is going to be much different then the last idiot in power in the usa? they are fooling themselves if they do! when it comes to usa foreign policy, it is as predictable as the morning sun rising.. they are losing the leverage that financial sanctions used to have.. they have to resort to war, as when you are about to lose control over the financial dynamics on the planet, this is what it comes down to... power needs to exercise power... these predators will not take no for an answer... we can talk about it, but ultimately they are the one's calling the shots.. biden is just another puppet in a long line of puppets... those pulling the strings are the ones we need to address.. it seems like israel is an important player in all of this too, as they too are seeing their power slip... it is only a matter of time... i pray the world works its way out of this mess... time is running out..

Posted by: james | Dec 7 2020 19:40 utc | 7

Biden must deal with Iran's strong and defend able economic role in the region. Iran has reversed its orientation Eastward. Oil revenues are not as important as before sanctions and there is significantly more production than before. The Iran economy has adopted to non-western markets. China one' road is open to Iran.

The Biden administration will have to concede the Iran military strength is strong enough, that continued sanctions by the West against Iran can only improve Iran's regional power.. that Trump's sanctions have attracted Russia and China to Iran, war cannot restore the dominate everyone, allow no competition privately owned corporate disease endemic to the west. There is also a strong internal rising of Americans ready to argue against any kind of Presidential or State department action on behalf of private corporate power or profit making outside of USA governed America. Many Americans intend to hold Biden accountable for his dealings in foreign lands while Biden is an elected official of the government. and his being president is going to accelerate that demand IMO.

Iran's military strength can overwhelm Israel.. before Iran deals with Biden, Israel will most likely be forced to retreat from Palestine altogether and maybe move back to the Yom Kippur war boundary.. it is this requirement that will bring on war I think.

Posted by: snake | Dec 7 2020 19:41 utc | 8

Biden is a thief. He proved that in Iran. Before the Hillary and her Clinton Foundation were the thief with Obama as the pimp. Its what Democrats do - they harvest $$$. The Biden Harris administration propose JCPOA ++ so they can extort pocket cash from their captive Arab states. Its what the democrats do. They do it with primaries, elections, all party and administrative processes.

Trump was slightly less sophisticated as he lacked the Delaware 'touch'.

Perhaps snorting dandruff gives Biden the edge though.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 7 2020 19:47 utc | 9

Oops Biden proved he was a thief in Ukraine and China with his family enrichment scams. He has revealed his intention to 'seek a deal' in Iran. The Iranians a way smarter than this twerp.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 7 2020 19:53 utc | 10

My comment from the week in review thread:

"Thanks for linking the Crooke article; it's quite good. What Crooke omitted was the reason why Trump didn't go to the war option, although it looked as if he wanted to on several occasions, and that was due to Iran's precision weapons capability. IMO, I don't see another JCPOA-type of pact; what exists will fritter away with time. Nor do I see Iran enriching to the weapon level for the very simple reason that they don't need to unless they want to build an ICBM to target the Outlaw US Empire, which I don't see happening either. Iran need do nothing with its defense doctrine aside from continuing to try and perfect it by adding new higher tech capabilities like lasers, hypersonic missiles, and underwater drones. It would indeed be odd for Iran to say it supports the Palestinians while having nukes pointed at them--I thought that the best line in the entire article. Nukes are not precision weapons; they are designed to obliterate. Nukes are used to accentuate hyperbolistic rhetoric as we've seen for the past 20+ years.

"Given Iran's political and cultural changes, I expect its new leaders to stand pat while continuing the policies of self-reliance along with Northern and Eastern commercial expansion. Getting Imperial troops out of the region will continue to be its immediate goal. And it must be admitted the Saudis are their own worst enemy by continuing to inflict damage on themselves by continuing their hopeless attempt to subdue Yemen--the Saudis are in real dire straights financially which has the Outlaw US Empire's Neoliberal Parasites licking their chops at wholly acquiring ARAMCO. IMO, what Biden decides to do in Syria will color everything else policy-wise in the region."

I see domestic considerations playing a big role in Biden's foreign policy choices. IMO, it's most likely that Biden takes the Nuttyahoo line and keeps the status quo--No JCPOA and sanctions remain in place--given the arch-Zionists in his proposed cabinet. However, he really must cut Imperial budget expenditures by 2-300 Billion over each year of his term and spend it on domestic needs--that's pretty much a bipartisan demand at the street level. Meanwhile, Trump still has the levers of control for 40 more days.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 7 2020 19:53 utc | 11

the crooke article is quite good! a quote "the more Palestinian security Israel got, the more it wanted. It will be the same in respect to Iran – Israel can never have enough." it seems the usa doesn't get this as they continue to try to prop up israel and assuage its endless fears.. will the usa ever get out of bed with israel? i do find it very funny how the usa has to side with uae and saudi arabia in all of this too... funny, or sick.. both these countries are the height of hypocrisy and fiefdoms that are as far removed from the ideals the usa apparently represents as you can get.. that israel too is siding with them shows just how little israel is concerned with democracy.. and as crooke notes - israel of today is much more intolerant of finding any balanced perspective.. it is all far right ideology that is driving israel today... very sad...

Posted by: james | Dec 7 2020 20:02 utc | 12

B you assume a "Biden administration" is a done deal. Don't you follow what is happening in the US or what? Looks like Trump has a fair chance of a second term as there is so much election fraud evidence it can't be ignored now. You could at least have qualified your article accordingly.

Posted by: Clifton | Dec 7 2020 20:05 utc | 13

I'm looking at Biden's foreign affairs team, and see lots of neocons of the left. That says strife, and maybe war. Still think Syria will be the winner in the bombs sweepstakes. Everyone on the left seem to prefer Iran to get a soft color flag revolution. Opening Iran up to the west will be critical.

Posted by: Old and Grumpy | Dec 7 2020 20:16 utc | 14

"The only alternative to get to those results is a large scale war against Iran with the aim to overthrow its government."

Meh. Imo, their strategy will be this: the sanctions, plus inciting multiple regional conflicts that involve Iran, drain its resources. Wearing it out, weakening. Indefinitely, or until an opportune moment when something (say, a 'color revolution') can put an end to it.

All there is to it. Uncomplicated. The standard game.

Posted by: Mao Cheng Ji | Dec 7 2020 20:21 utc | 15

I wonder what targeting system Iran is using to achieve such a high precision. Probably combined GPS+GLONASS, as the U.S. can’t destroy GLONASS without Russia retaliating with its anti-satellite missiles, and it would be impractical to turn GPS off either due to how important it has become to the economy and daily life.

Posted by: S | Dec 7 2020 20:29 utc | 16

Amen, Brother b.

Been screaming all these points made, and yet, people go on predicting ‘War with Iran’ on a daily basis, like it’s a tick that needs scratching, soothing. We’ve got a few of them here.

As per Millennium Challenge war games, ‘War with Iran’ was not possible in 2002. It is less so today. What b, and Crooke missed in the capabilities assessment is the satellite Iran launched to have an eye in the sky as well.

On the economic front: Iran’s economy simply cannot be assessed. Yes, it may be hurting, but hawala economy is not visible to people. What was it Khomeini said? Economist are stupidest bunch.

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Dec 7 2020 20:30 utc | 17

@ b who wrote
"
Sanctions will not give the 'west' the results it desires. The only alternative to get to those results is a large scale war against Iran with the aim to overthrow its government. But such a war can not be waged because it would destroy the Middle East and would push the global economy into a deep recession. In short - it is no alternative.
"

Pushing the global economy into a deep recession is already a partial reality and the global financial elite only think of the ME as a lever in the geo-political shit show which will be destroyed if necessary to retain power/control.

The civilization war we are in is currently in MAD mode and so attempts will continued to be made to push agendas without nukes, militarily or bullying, etc. Biden will be constrained by the loss of Syria from the Obama era and global disfavor from the Trump era.

I believe that the world of the West is headed for more than a recession because more than the economy is at stake. It will take a depression and who knows what response by the public and elite to move the West from the current crazy to a new crazy or ???

And frankly, I think that the elite are ready to pull the economic plug soon in hopes they can control the social gyrations that will result. They know that the longer they wait now the worse their chances are because of China's example.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 7 2020 20:34 utc | 18

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 7 2020 18:40 utc | 155

It would indeed be odd for Iran to say it supports the Palestinians while having nukes pointed at them--I thought that the best line in the entire article. Nukes are not precision weapons; they are designed to obliterate. Nukes are used to accentuate hyperbolistic rhetoric as we've seen for the past 20+ years.

Yes Crook is generally correct in his analysis, brits they have longer experience in ME and with Shia. Iran and her co Shia communities are a minority in their region, as well as in the Muslim world, Iran feels and is, responsible for a communal security around minority Shia, an inter Shia communal security enhances Iran’s own security, as well as Shia communities all over the world (excluding the queen’ MI6 Shia community of London ) For this reason nukes has no strategic advantage for Iran since she can’t use it against neighboring Muslim states it will ultimately insecure her own constituencies, nevertheless less using against super nuke states.
As Crooks says for conventional war, Iran as shown has already established a deterrence with recent attack on US bases and other actions in ME. The occupied Palestinian territory of Israel in reality is as big as New Jersey, with a western origin population that can easily be admitted in any safe western countries, they are not capable of taking many precision hits, as such they don’t pose a real strategic threat to Iran. Traditionally Iran’ biggest threat is a street level sectarian conflicts between Sunni and Shia. In this past two decades UK, US, Arab monarchies have tried hard to ignite a sectarian conflict against Shia and Iranians but smartly enough major Shia clerics have been able to avoid that although UK, US and Israel plus Arab monarchs have pushed ISIS and AQ against Shia. In short Iran and Shia don’t need and will avoid killing street Sunni Arabs to fight Israel. Iran nuclear program was and is for two strategic rich , first to be a nuke capable state (like japan) two to use insignificant parts of it as a bargaining cheeps with the west and that’s where JCPOA comes in, and both strategic goals achieved.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 7 2020 20:38 utc | 19

psychohistorian@18 - "It will take a depression and who knows what response by the public and elite to move the West from the current crazy to a new crazy or ??? "

I'll humbly suggest the ??? factor" ('They' already have a solution) President Kamala-Harris, a sturdy pair of jackboots and plenty of riot batons. I think my face is involved too, somehow. It's for my own good, so I guess that's OK. Who are we to question the experts?

Posted by: PavewayIV | Dec 7 2020 20:59 utc | 20

Iran has a say in this matter, and Tehran is responding to the assassinations by changing the rules.
. . .from AlJazeerah Dec 2. . .
Iran to further limit nuclear commitments: What’s next?
A look at legislation pushed through with extraordinary speed by hardline Iranian politicians this week.

Tehran, Iran – A bill aimed at further reducing Iran’s nuclear commitments proposed by conservatives and hardliners in the country’s parliament just cleared its last hurdle.
The Strategic Act to Revoke Sanctions was approved by the powerful 12-member vetting body Guardian Council with extraordinary speed on Wednesday despite government opposition.
Hours before the oversight body greenlit the legislation, President Hassan Rouhani said the bill would be “harmful” to diplomatic efforts . . .
But members of parliament – furious with the Friday assassination of top nuclear and military scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and what they perceive as Iran’s lack of adequate response – charged ahead unfazed.
. . .The parliament’s bill wants to force the hand of the West to return to full compliance under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the formal name of the nuclear deal.
It aims to do this through a slew of measures, including putting a stop to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), increasing Iran’s enrichment of uranium, and revitalising the Fordow plant among others.. .here

And in an opinion published in Haaretz Dec 6:

. . .It is still an open question whether the bill’s eventual approval represented a humiliation for the president or was part of a good-cop/bad-cop routine. But even as the battle over the law continues, Tehran has already started the implementation process by reporting to international inspectors that it will be deploying three additional cascades of IR-2m centrifuges to the underground enrichment plant at Natanz. And the Supreme National Security Council affirmed the propriety of the bill on Saturday. . .he Rouhani government will likely make the best of the situation and use the law – and the hawkish parliament that passed it – to pressure the U.S. in eventual negotiations.
Shortly after the bill’s passing, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif noted that although his hands are now tied by the law, which he cannot ignore, the steps are reversible. He added: "The Europeans and USA can come back into compliance with the JCPOA and not only this law will not be implemented, but in fact the actions we have taken...will be rescinded. We will go back to full compliance."
Zarif’s comment is a contradiction – the government’s hands are tied until it decides that they aren’t – and it provides an early window into how the government will use the legislation’s deadlines to hurry their American counterparts to return to the deal and provide Iran with the sanctions relief it so needs. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 7 2020 21:11 utc | 21

"Israel exaggerates the Iran issue to press the U.S. for weapons free of charge and additional subsidies."

That is one purpose. Another very important purpose is to give political cover for its dispossession of Palestinians, and driving off refugees never to return.

Another is to give political cover to the ongoing expansion of Greater Israel into Lebanon, Syria, West Bank, and Sinai.

Posted by: Mark Thomason | Dec 7 2020 21:13 utc | 22

Any one have a source for Iran's super and hypersonic ASW missile systems? What do they really have right now? I suspect they own the Gulf under just about any scenario, but what about other water?

Posted by: j. casey | Dec 7 2020 21:14 utc | 23

@ PavewayIV | Dec 7 2020 20:59 utc | 20 who responded to my future speculation.

I agree with the characterization of the incoming "leadership".

While I agree with the happening of the jackboot phase I am hoping it is brief. I think we will have a some "shootout at the OK corral" happenings also but I hope they occur at a minimum. This go-round there will be lots more out on the streets....20+ million unemployed as well as the growing business losses factoring out even more unemployment.

As people in the West become aware of what China is providing for their people, they will start demanding for the same. In the Uighur thread some one (we just switched pages there so too hard to see who) posted the link below that should go viral about what China thinks about full-employment
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202009/17/WS5f62eda8a31024ad0ba7a273.html

Is Joe Biden's team going to provide similar? .....grin/snark

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 7 2020 21:18 utc | 24

Minor point - I think that the Ansarallah drones and missiles are Yemeni made. They may have had some technical assistance from Iranians. But the capabilities of Ansarallah, when they include much of the former Yemeni army, are frequently underestimated. The assumption that those drones were Iranian made originates in US propaganda claims.

Posted by: WastedTalent | Dec 7 2020 21:19 utc | 25

Posted by: WastedTalent | Dec 7 2020 21:19 utc | 26

Iranian military is on the record saying has assisted Yemen in her fight with west and her clients. Military technology, asymmetrical fighting it could include all.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 7 2020 21:25 utc | 26

"Iran will only get stronger"

Looking at how devastating the last 2 years of sanctions have been... that seems debatable. What is certain is that the leadership, or at least its policies, will not change, and will likely become more extreme and even harder to renegotiate.

That in IMHO is essentially the crux of the calculus: why pursue a strategy that yields no change of course and only makes it harder to avoid outright conflict?

Posted by: Et Tu | Dec 7 2020 21:25 utc | 27

Talking about "The Biden Administration" at this point is premature. We shall see.

Posted by: Norwegian | Dec 7 2020 21:38 utc | 28

@17 "Been screaming all these points made, and yet, people go on predicting ‘War with Iran’ on a daily basis, like it’s a tick that needs scratching, soothing. We’ve got a few of them here."

No prediction is necessary, the US is already waging war on Iran. Not just economic. What do you call killing their top general if not war? What do you call funding the MEK terrorists so they can attack Iranian citizens and infrastructure?

Just because it's almost all one-sided, with the US winning, war is already being waged. How many more :acts of war: do you need to see against Iran before you can admit that they're at war?

This reminds me of the "class war" in the US. Some people go: "we need to wage class warfare" as if it's not already being waged; others deny such a thing exists. Then you have a Warren Buffet who correctly notes "the US has been in a class war for decades and we [the wealthy] have won". Like Iran, just because in the US the poor and downtrodden are getting their asses kicked instead of kicking ass, doesn't mean they're not at war.

Posted by: Wind Hippo | Dec 7 2020 21:55 utc | 29

@15 Mao Cheng Ji

“Imo, their strategy will be this: the sanctions, plus inciting multiple regional conflicts that involve Iran, drain its resources. Wearing it out, weakening. Indefinitely, or until an opportune moment when something (say, a 'color revolution') can put an end to it.
All there is to it. Uncomplicated. The standard game.”

It’s not what will be, it’s what has been in the recent years. First came UNSC sanctions then 5+1 process almost at the same time as ISIS was borned in ME, War in Syria, a color revolution attempt, Maximum sanctions, a second color revolution attempt, desprate acts of terror, ... And what have they achieved?
Axis of Resistance got more organized and became the key regional actor, Yankee lost parts of global hegemony, Europeans qualified to be considered “poodles” by everyone, Russian Generals got extra portion of self-confidence against the “greatest war machinery” in the world, Chinese could in a discrete manner expand into Africa and Latin America.

Not that uncomplicated “standard game” as you see.

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 7 2020 22:02 utc | 30

Kooshy @19--

Thanks for your reply! I see an intractable stalemate only solvable by a more enlightened group of national leaders than those now or soon to come to power. The demise of the Petrodollar and waning demand for oil will put pressure on the Saudis and UAE as I'm rather certain all understand that Eurasian hydrocarbon demand can be supplied by Russia and Iran until demand finally become minimal in 50 years--demand for polymers will continue far longer since so many useful products are made from them. That fact means the sanctions on Iran's and Russia's hydrocarbon sectors are utterly useless.

Smoldering under the radar is Asia's current big crisis that might become war--India's farmer strike. I hope b writes an article about Modi's many mistakes and his very divided nation that can't take much more of its "traditional" repression of over half its people.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 7 2020 22:07 utc | 31

psychohistorian@25 - "I think we will have a some "shootout at the OK corral" happenings also but I hope they occur at a minimum."

I hope you are right, but I fear that you are not. I expect there is going to be quite a bit of violence.

Does anyone remember pizza gate? Remember the guy who showed up at a pizza joint in chicago to 'rescue the children'?

This was a wacky conspiracy that a few misguided and gullible people subscribed to, and still one nut job took it seriously enough to show up with a gun.

This time around we have 70+ million misguided and gullible people all riled up by shucksters and con men. How many of them are going to show up with guns? More than just a few.

This could lead to either civil war or a police state, neither of which are desirable outcomes in my opinion.

This bullshit is going to destroy what little is left of our country.

I would be lying if I said I wasnt more than a little worried about our immediate future.

Posted by: visak | Dec 7 2020 22:07 utc | 32

I just realized my last post made me sound like I only think r's are misguied and gullible. That was not my intent.

I think the d's are just as misguided and gullible, hence russia gate.

Posted by: visak | Dec 7 2020 22:15 utc | 33

Mr. Kooshy

The Sunni Muslims have been attacking the Party of Ali - in Pakistan, in Afghanistan, in Syria, in Lebanon, in Iraq and finally in Yemen.

What was the Iran-Iraq War but a Sunni attack disguised under the rubric of Arab Nationalism?

The United States, the United Kingdom, and France are also completely on the side of the Sunnis against Shia.

(It must be frustrating for the Westerners that the Sunnis attack them in their own countries.)

The Americans have not yet grasped that they need to end their wars against Muslims - Shia, Sunni, Ibadi, Salafi - and go home.

America is a very rich country and my estimation is that until the Americans become poorer - like the English - they will pursue the current policy.

Posted by: fyi | Dec 7 2020 22:17 utc | 34

b: "Iran will only get stronger."

This is the essential dilemma facing the USA today. It has followed the same play-book for decades against multiple countries: sanction, sanction, sanction until their economy falls over and its military capability turns to rust. Then a single kick bring the entire edifice tumbling down, and with nary a handful of dead GIs.

Worked a treat against Iraq.

But that trick didn't work against Russia: the Russian economy didn't fall over, and the Russian military is modernizing.
That trick isn't working against Iran: its economy is battered but not broken, and Iran has developed a significant domestic arms industry.

How frustrating.

The only alternative is a real war, against a real opponent.

An even worse, waiting makes no difference i.e. starting that war now or starting that war in four years time leads to the same result - a real war, against a real opponent.

Poor things.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Dec 7 2020 22:18 utc | 35

@28 Et Tu

"Iran will only get stronger"

Looking at how devastating the last 2 years of sanctions have been... that seems debatable. What is certain is that the leadership, or at least its policies, will not change, and will likely become more extreme and even harder to renegotiate.

Leadership has changed but yet, not formally. Last 8 years we had a Technocrat government supported by Theocracy. Last two years of it we have a Theocracy trying to demonstrate Nationalist policy and distancing itself from Technocrats. Next election in Iran will erase Technocrats and another cooperation of Theocracy with Nationalists will be initiated. I wouldn’t call that more extreme, rather more healthy.

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 7 2020 22:19 utc | 36

Framarz @31--

I agree; it's unwise to ignore the overall geopolitical context and its Big Picture, particularly the Outlaw US Empire's atrophying capabilities as its rivals continue to grow stronger. Eventually, its domestic deterioration will force it to abandon its Empire or face revolution at home.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 7 2020 22:19 utc | 37

Just because it's almost all one-sided, with the US winning, war is already being waged. How many more :acts of war: do you need to see against Iran before you can admit that they're at war?
Posted by: Wind Hippo | Dec 7 2020 21:55 utc | 30

Wind Hippo, there is war, and there is war. What you refer to as war, is cowardly killings. Acts of war? Nah, pin pricks.
Economic war is being fought against Iran, because they can’t have a shooting war. If you don’t understand the difference between the kinds of war, I can’t help you.

Yes, keep on believing the empire is winning. chant it with me, USA, USA.

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Dec 7 2020 22:20 utc | 38

If this news report is correct, China has buckled to the US on its Iran commerce.
...Reuters, Oct 23
BEIJING (Reuters) - Bank of Kunlun Co, the key Chinese conduit for transactions with Iran, is set to halt handling payments from the Islamic Republic under pressure of imminent U.S. sanctions against the country, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. . .“We were told that from Nov. 1 Kunlun would no longer receive payments from Iran. That basically means Iran will have to stop importing from China,” said an executive with an eastern China-based manufacturer that exported electronic components to Iran until recently.. . .here.
We have heard previously about barter arrangements and cryptocurrency, but these transactions would take place in the shadows of course and we're left with. . .'who knows.'

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 7 2020 22:27 utc | 39

Posted by: fyi | Dec 7 2020 22:17 utc | 35

I agree with your estimation better yet prognosis, but that is true not only for the British empire, but with all empires before that. Unsupported greed and Expansion is not only unique for empires is also true for large businesses, unsupported expansion and financing can ultimately bring down businesses empires or both. Downfall of US empire can be downfall of many large American businesses.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 7 2020 22:28 utc | 40

After Trump left the JCPOA, it put the Iranian hardliners Iran in control.

Now they can say, "you see, I told you that you cannot trust the United States."

Why would Iran agree to more concessions now? So that the US could walk away from the new treaty and demand yet more concessions? Iran would be crazy to trust the US at this point.

It would be especially crazy now that they have started to re-orient their economy to the East. And it is simply not believable that Iran would give up its only real defense: ballistic missiles and defensive weapons. There is not a snowball's chance in hell of Iran making such concessions at this point.

Iran would go back to the JCPOA just to allow them to sell more oil so as to finance their continuing shift to the east. In other words, they would do it just to use Western monies to help Iran further disconnect from the United States and Europe.

But beyond that, forget it.

Trump and Pompeo painted themselves into a corner. Iranian energy will now go to facilitate the rise of China. At this point, there is no way for the US to fix this mess.

Posted by: Mike from Jersey | Dec 7 2020 22:29 utc | 41

@32 karlof1

I hope b writes an article about Modi's many mistakes and his very divided nation that can't take much more of its "traditional" repression of over half its people.

I would appreciate to get some in-dept debate in that direction too!

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 7 2020 22:30 utc | 42

@ b who writes "As this is obvious one really wonders why the European poodles are pressing for it. What do they hope to gain?"

They might hope to avoid a larger war which will hurt more than the exclusion of Iran as a trading partner, was the 1st thing that came to mind.

Also Iran imo has very little to lose and alot to gain by entering into another deal, even if Trump tears it up again in 2024. That Iran would give up it's ability to defend itself is nonsense of course, it does seem to have the capacity to throw bones empires way to get some sanction relief. The article u wrote in regards to Iran helping with a new JCPOA by erecting walls it could easily tear down as a show of cooperation seems to be the most lucid approach.

IMO what Iran should not do is "get real" and ramp up it's intelligence and bang its' war drums as some here suggest as this would be playing into it's enemies plans. Iran has lasted this long they wont make that mistake now that they are so close.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Dec 7 2020 22:36 utc | 43

"... Joe Biden can take that offer or he can waste four years with useless hand-wringing over the Iran issues. Time is not on his side ... "

Saying that time is not on Joe Biden's side is surely the understatement of the year 2020 at this MoA bar.

If the dementia or any other health issue doesn't force out or take out Joe Biden before he can complete his first term as POTUS (that's assuming that he is inaugurated as President in January next year or even that he is declared legitimate and is anointed by the Electoral College, and the court cases challenging his claim to be the President-elect are found lacking in evidence of voter fraud), then some new scandal involving Hunter Biden or another of the Biden family or attached to Joe Biden himself may well arise and be of a scale hard even for his most fanatical supporters to ignore.

Biden might have no choice but to keep wringing his hands ... it may be all he is able to do.

In the meantime the hawala economy that Sakineh Bagoom @ 17 mentioned and other organisations like the bonyads and other charities with their networks that operate away from the official Iranian economy (or that part of the Iranian economy that the neoliberal-oriented Rouhani government can control and ruin) and which trade with other nations sanctioned by the West are the institutions that help to make Iran stronger. As long as the West cannot understand how the bonyads work - even I have only the vaguest, haziest idea of their scale and their role in Iran's economy, how they benefit the poor and the disadvantaged by providing them with essential services, employment and education, and this is after reading Ramin Mazaheri's essays in "Socialism's Ignored Success: Iranian Islamic Socialism" - Iran will always have that edge over the West

Posted by: Jen | Dec 7 2020 22:42 utc | 44

@44 Tannenhouser

I think (hope?) the next Iranian government is not going to continue JCPOA. The right approach for Iran would be: Good bye JCPOA, Welcome 1+1 deals!

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 7 2020 22:55 utc | 45

yet another article that over complicates simple truths.
The truth is so simple: the West/USA/Israel/EU don't want economically strong Iran/Russia/China/Syria/etc because they cannot exploit them. Capitalism 101.
The "Iran nuclear threat" has always been a red herring and pretty much everyone knows that; there is not even a need to discuss it.

But once again, the author and everyone forgets to mention how China could easily checkmates the West/USA/Israel/EU by immediately signing up a deal with Iran, where they will buy Iranian oil and offer them protection, the same way USA is "protecting" the EU from the imaginary "Russian threat". Yet China hasn't done it, and it has let Iran to twist in the wind.
Russia could also play a huge role, by openly declaring itself to be Iran's protector and drawing a red line around Iran. Yet Russia hasn't done it, and it has let Iran to twist in the wind.
So the real question here becomes: Why haven't China and Russia offered protection to Iran, the enemy of the West who by default becomes their friend? Are they stupid or dont give a fuck that Iran will eventually be attacked and destroyed? Yet Iran is in their back yard.
So come on all your smarties, riddle me this. IF you can. You ALL babble a lot but dont really say and damn thing.

Posted by: Hoyeru | Dec 7 2020 22:58 utc | 46

Hoyeru@47 - I would suggest that kind of in your face action towards america would cause america to launch a war.

It is possible that china and/or russia have already given iran this type of security guarantee, and just hasnt shared it with the world.

"the enemy of the West who by default becomes their friend?"

There is a major flaw is this reasoning. The enemy of my enemy could just be another enemy or they could be a friend. It is possible to have more than one enemy at a time.

Posted by: visak | Dec 7 2020 23:03 utc | 47

@48Framarz. Yes that would be the best way. Some type of JCPOA would make 1on1 deals much easier, imo.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Dec 7 2020 23:08 utc | 48

Posted by: Hoyeru | Dec 7 2020 22:58 utc | 47

Not trying to pick a fight, but, you haven't offered why Iran needs protection from either China, or Russia.

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Dec 7 2020 23:09 utc | 49

Posted by: Hoyeru | Dec 7 2020 22:58 utc | 47

The role of Russia & China is to keep the fight fair, no nukes. On those terms, Iran will be more than happy to take US on, if we insist, Israel and Saudi Arabia too. In a conventional war, well, how are we doing in Afghanistan or Iraq? Do you think the USA is ready to go to war? I live here and I don't.

Posted by: Bemildred | Dec 7 2020 23:11 utc | 50

@WatedTalent #26

Iran makes tailor-Made drones and other weapon for Axis Of Resistans. This is a big headache for Israel and Golf monarchs

The jerusalem institute for strategy and security cover it here.

https://jiss.org.il/en/rubin-uavs-in-the-skies-of-the-mediterranean/

and the one for Saudi's Black Sempter that they call it

https://jiss.org.il/en/rubin-saudi-arabias-black-september/

Posted by: -AR_ | Dec 7 2020 23:16 utc | 51

@47 Hoyeru

“But once again, the author and everyone forgets to mention how China could easily checkmates the West/USA/Israel/EU by immediately signing up a deal with Iran, where they will buy Iranian oil and offer them protection, the same way USA is "protecting" the EU from the imaginary "Russian threat". Yet China hasn't done it, and it has let Iran to twist in the wind.”

How can China checkmate US/EU when they have invested so much money in there? If China was able to checkmate, it could simply dictate the trade deal with Trump. But you are right with, “let Iran twist in the wind” part.

An interesting question strike the mind, would China still let Iran twist in the wind, If US and Iran decided to have a little chit chat in a private room?

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 7 2020 23:25 utc | 52

Some of new toys of Iran's military recently covered by SouthFront

https://southfront.org/iran-showcases-almost-exact-copy-of-us-made-agm-41-hellfire-missile/

It says "Judging by the photo, the four missiles shown have different guidance heads: thermal imaging, television, semi-active laser and, as it is assumed, active radar.

If Iran has indeed managed to recreate the fourth option, which is capable of acting on the “fire-and-forget” principle, then this can be considered a great achievement of the Islamic Republic’s military industry. "

Posted by: -AR_ | Dec 7 2020 23:28 utc | 53

@50 Sakineh Bagoom

Not trying to pick a fight, but, you haven't offered why Iran needs protection from either China, or Russia.

Sakineh, you are one fine lady!

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 7 2020 23:32 utc | 54

Lots of talk about what Biden has to do, but in the case he is president in janyary, how long wil he be president. What will Kamala do? Because he is admitting ''I'll develop some disease and say I have to resign''

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSpQuUz1ir4&feature=emb_logo

Posted by: -AR_ | Dec 7 2020 23:43 utc | 55

@AR56 sounds like par for the course to me, americans not getting what they voted for I mean.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Dec 7 2020 23:51 utc | 56

I agree that JCPOA will not be fully re-implemented, but an easing of certain non-nuclear sanctions such as against certain banks on humanitarian grounds, and then looking the other way on Chinese sanctions violations related to importation of Iranian oil, is the best plausible outcome. Iran would keep a certain level of JCPOA compliance.

I'm not sure if Biden wants his Presidency to have an Iran crisis related to closure or mining of the Strait of Hormuz, or $150/barrel oil after Iran levels Persian Gulf oil facilities, .

Posted by: Schmoe | Dec 7 2020 23:58 utc | 57

I disagree with the statement:" But such a war can not be waged because it would destroy the Middle East and would push the global economy into a deep recession." the great reset NWO have already put the world economy into a deep recession with covidiocy. Of course the stock market and favored corporations are shielded from the effects with 10s of trillions of dollars created out of nothing by the FED. A war with Iran would cause such a depression that not even the deep state could control and even the wealthy would be effected. so I agree with the intent of the statement.
But the violence and volatility happening sure reminds me of the time before WWI. The B&RI is likely to be plagued by covert actions similar to Germany's Berlin to Baghdad railroad. There are small wars breaking here and there all over the world. China's economic and scientific advances are threatening the US empire the same way that Germany's advances were threatening England. See the Corbett report on how England helped to insure that WW1 happened.
As for Iran I agree with MOA but don;t underestimate the power than Israel has to get the US involved in wars in the ME for Israel's benefit. It almost happened under baby Bush (military action against Iran) but I believe some sanity in the military stopped it. Too many but not everbody is a stooge for Israel.

Posted by: gepay | Dec 8 2020 0:21 utc | 58

If ever, under no circumstance Iran will agree to negotiate with US without other members of UNSC being a signatory. On negations for Iraq Iran didn’t accept to negotiate unless Iraq was a party, on negotiable with Talaban
US invited Iran to the table but Iran refused unless Afghan government was also invited. Can one imagine where Iran would be today politically without having the rest of UNSC being part of JCPOA and 2231. Whatever and regardless of economic shortcomings of JCPOA, because of 2231 Iran has a political immunity and protection for her nuclear program as seen this summer with US attempts. Iran’s nuclear program and principal foreign policy is not an administrative issue is a national policy that is directed form it’s SNSC and nothing that Rouhani or Ahmadinijad or Ayatollah Khamenie alone decides and acts. Due to the very intense security issues, Iran has one of the most sophisticated foreign policy process.

Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 8 2020 0:23 utc | 59

Thanks b, excellent analysis and historical context.

In the shifting sands of ME politics we now have a Saudi FM offering an olive branch. Pity about his Iran bashing. At least the Iranians haven't forcibly imposed themselves on the region. Shia Islam, as you pointed out, is all over the ME:

Listen to Prince Turki al-Faisal

I hope the YouTube link works.

Posted by: Paul | Dec 8 2020 0:23 utc | 60

Gen. Lloyd Austin to be new Sec of Defense if he gets the required waiver from Congress.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 8 2020 0:28 utc | 61

I mentioned Biden will have massive domestic problems to face as soon as he's sworn in. Here's just one massive example, Millions of renters face eviction in January, and I don't think they're going to just lay there and be steamrolled. I expect very strong resistance. Many will see this as a war on poor people and react accordingly.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 8 2020 0:42 utc | 62

Regarding Biden's career as president: he must serve at least half of his term and a day before allowing Harris to succeed him. That way, she will not have served enough of his term for it to qualify as a term for her. And that way, she will be legally free to serve two full terms of her own.

Given the performance Biden has managed to turn in so far (mostly plausible), with the right drugs and the right team of managers and handlers, he should be able to hang in there until the latter part of 2023. Remember: Ronnie was kept going right through his second term, even though by the end of his first term already there were repeated signs of creeping vacuousness. During his last interview before leaving office he was so far gone that Nancy had to accompany him and keep prompting him and finishing his sentences.

Posted by: RJPJR | Dec 8 2020 0:46 utc | 63

karlof1@63 - Here in wisconsin it is against the law to evict somebody during the winter, as you will literally die without shelter. You can get an order against someone, but it wont be enforced until, iirc, may.

I would assume most places that have similar weather have similar provisions.

Not that this fixes the problem, but at least no one is going to be put on the streets in January.

Posted by: visak | Dec 8 2020 0:55 utc | 64

Yes, this is why now is such a dangerous time in the process. It is obvious Israel/Trump is trying to provoke Iran into a response using assassination and terror. Iran, which has not yet retaliated even for the Soleimani hit, nor its chief nuclear scientist, has shown remarkable restraint. Can Iran hold out for a Biden attempt to ease relations or will Israel/Trump do something which makes it impossible for Iran to hold fire. As some of the people involved are batshit crazy, we have weeks yet of tension on this front.

Posted by: gottlieb | Dec 8 2020 0:56 utc | 65

@ 62
Gen. Lloyd Austin to be new Sec of Defense
That would be another mistake, putting a general officer in what should be a civilian position. Most generals (not all) are not mentally equipped to do much more that suck up, beat down, and get promoted. Has any one of them achieved anything any time recently?....No. . .Then we have the Mattis types, boy that was a big mistake. . . In fact Trump majored in hiring generals, and none of them worked out.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 8 2020 0:57 utc | 66

@60 kooshy

On negations for Iraq Iran didn’t accept to negotiate unless Iraq was a party, on negotiable with Talaban US invited Iran to the table but Iran refused unless Afghan government was also invited. Can one imagine where Iran would be today politically without having the rest of UNSC being part of JCPOA and 2231.

We have again this putting of Mr. Goodarzi’s hand in the pocket of Miss Shaghayegh, by you.
What has negotiations on Irak and Afghanistan to do with JCPOA? Those are Muslim neighbouring countries subject of ZioImperialist aggression. Iran had obligations toward them and own security.

The rest of UNSC were part of the reason why Iran had to sign the colonial agreement called JCPOA in first place. The rest of UNSC could at least block that totally crazy formulation about “snap back” mechanism, which they didn’t, shooting Iran in the arm and themselves in the knee.

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 8 2020 1:00 utc | 67

visak @65--

Thanks for your reply! I would think the writers and NGOs cited in the article have taken such measures at the state levels into account. Most evictions will occur in the very unfriendly Southern states as the article cites 1.2 million households face such dire circumstances, which is still enough to cause major problems.

That General Austin is the likely SecDef I see as a good thing as he knows Iran's a very strong adversary not to be toyed with. Given he was the man who got the troops out of Iraq the first time for me says that's exactly what he'll be tasked with again. If Biden does that, then a whole new set of possibilities appear, IMO.

Posted by: karlof1 | Dec 8 2020 1:07 utc | 68

@Paul #61
You didn't include link, but here it is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVWAF4oChEQ

I wonder too if its a U-turn from Saudis? Maybe those new attack on their oil and ship, plus double cross from Bibi to leak meating to press is the reeason? Or maybe they ware told by Iran as the case with UAE that they will be hit hard.

Posted by: _AR_ | Dec 8 2020 1:20 utc | 69

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 8 2020 1:00 utc | 68

Don't get excited and read Alastair Crooke analysis, you will learn, instead of pulling openion out of your rear . I showed ever since Algiers Accords historically Iran has not agreed to negotiate with US except for the early initiation of nuclear talks in Oman only when Obama wrote to SL, US will agree in principal to Iran's enrichment rights when that was on the table Iran moved the talk to a 5+1 format in Geneva. As usual you are throwing things in the air diverting the forum.

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 8 2020 1:33 utc | 70

BTW what the F* is this "Mr. Goodarzi’s hand in the pocket of Miss Shaghayegh" can you put this in persian is this supposed to be a proverb?

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 8 2020 1:39 utc | 71

@ 71 kooshy

As usual you are throwing things in the air diverting the forum.

Don’t act as political nanny for debates here. Articulate clear and logical arguments. Others in forum can go themselves and count how many UNSC sanctions against Iran was passed before JCPOA was negotiated and signed by Iran.

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 8 2020 1:45 utc | 72

@72 kooshy

BTW what the F* is this "Mr. Goodarzi’s hand in the pocket of Miss Shaghayegh" can you put this in persian is this supposed to be a proverb?

It's the polite form of "Rabt dadane Gooz be Shaghigheh!"

- My sincere appology to Sakineh khanoom, Fyi and all the other 100+ Iranian students, young journalists and analysts following these discussions

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 8 2020 1:51 utc | 73

Hoyeru # 47

"So the real question here becomes: Why haven't China and Russia offered protection to Iran, the enemy of the West who by default becomes their friend? Are they stupid or dont give a fuck that Iran will eventually be attacked and destroyed? Yet Iran is in their back yard."

The specter of US sanctions. China can make only a small fraction of its required semiconductors and nothing remotely cutting edge, and without access to chips derived from US technology, their entire tech sector is closed for business. Between that possibility and Iran, they are choosing to save their economy. Chinese companies are importing some Iranian oil, but no flagrant violations of US sanctions.

As for Russia, the sanctions help Russia by keeping oil prices high.

Posted by: Schmoe | Dec 8 2020 2:11 utc | 74

One wonders how many times Iranian officials including Zarif have to repeat “if US start implementing his obligations under 2231” and JCPOA members agree for US to be readmitted to the JCPOA only then she will have a place at the table and can negotiate under JCPOA. As Alister says this really doesn’t fit with Israel and KSA and MEK wishful thinking, they rather a one on one with US if they are not allowed to be part of JCPOA. GCC members can negotiate with Iran under HOPE initiative but not for security of Israel. Wishful thinking is not foreign or security policy. As iranians say "where is the hearing ear?".
Faramarz did you ever hear that at home.

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 8 2020 2:15 utc | 75

“Power comes out of the barrel of a factory.” Pity. ...the nincumpoops in washington are driving away customers.... their factories are becoming smaller aand smaller., as they drive their clients to the competition. Iran with its population, owns the middle east, east of the red sea. Think about what happened when iraq, supported by usa, attacked iran......How far did iraq get? (Giggle....). ....look back to a time when the us had overthrown irans government , instituted a royal throne...was it lifee magazine, parroting “ Iran, the policeman of the gulf”? ...and Americans friend....until they found themselves under the thumb of their us royalty.......gee, how did we get here?

Posted by: James joseph | Dec 8 2020 2:23 utc | 76

Others in forum can go themselves and count how many UNSC sanctions against Iran was passed before JCPOA was negotiated and signed by Iran.

And that was during your new hero Ahmadinijad, and JCPOA purposes beside accepting Iran's enrichment right (again read Alastair article) was to void the UNSC sanctions with UNSCR 2231. 2231 prevented US to reinstated UNSC resolutions that sanctioned Iran and it was binding for all members including Russia and China, remember is in this last five years that Iran became a pressission missile capable during JCPOA, otherwise bought Iran time to increase her deterrence.

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 8 2020 2:25 utc | 77

@76 kooshy

Here, take and read this. Finally someone in Iran noticed what was going on in NK War. Then go back and review your discussion with me about NK war in this forum.

https://tn.ai/2405133

I don’t expect much from you but do something useful and translate it for our host and the rest of forum. It’s a geopolitical important issue that everyone should know and have it in memory by the next clash in NK.

Over and out for tonight ...

Posted by: Framarz | Dec 8 2020 2:27 utc | 78

Ariane Tabatabai @ArianeTabatabai has just had a book published:. ."No Conquest, No Defeat: Iran's National Security Strategy"
from the Amazon blurb:
. . . Tabatabai argues that the Islamic Republic is neither completely rational nor purely ideological. Rather, its national security policy today is largely shaped by its strategic culture, a product of the country's historical experiences of war and peace. As a result, Iranian strategic thinking is perhaps best characterised by its dynamic yet resilient nature, one that is continually evolving. As the Islamic Republic enters its fifth decade, this book sheds new light on Iran's controversial nuclear and missile programmes, and its involvement in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 8 2020 2:29 utc | 79

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 8 2020 2:29 utc | 80

I read this opinion article this morning, is a BS from Tasnim to put pressure on Ruhani government. Opinions like yours and mine are not proof of anything and there are diverse opinions in Iran about Iran's foreign and internal policies, and do you want me to link you to 20 articles opposing this view , what would that proof? Geography can't lie for Russia, Turkey, Armenia, Europe, China,and central Asian Stans, the easiest fastest and flattest access to Indian ocean, east and south africa, india oceania, indonisia is through Iran, T

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 8 2020 2:37 utc | 80

Sorry Don that was not meant to you was meant to Faramarz@79

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 8 2020 2:38 utc | 81

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 8 2020 2:29 utc | 80

I am sure you have read Ariane's opinions here and there in last few years, she works for Rand here in lovely Santa Monica,
IMO, summary of her analysis of Iranian geostrategic objectives base on Iran's geography, demography and history is generally correct. But her other analysis she does for her think tanks and Media are mostly made to fit, like most Iranians working in Think Tanks, Media and academies. I know you already know all this, just for other observers.

Posted by: kooshy | Dec 8 2020 2:48 utc | 82

you forgot iran also wants to be compensated for all damages from sanctions (easily 200-400 billion)

Posted by: poshpotdllr | Dec 8 2020 2:49 utc | 83

@ kooshy 82
No worries -- I appreciate your presence here. People in this world have a lot in common, and have some differences too, let's celebrate both.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Dec 8 2020 2:52 utc | 84

what you say will never happen b. if biden reenters jcpoa and removes all the sanctions saudi arabia and israel will have to answer for all their failed wars of aggression and war crimes (along with their friends in europe and usa). this would be a zionist wahhabi evangelical neoliberal neoconservative suicide. nay, war cometh.

Posted by: karafspolo | Dec 8 2020 2:55 utc | 85

Mr. Don Bacon

I think that we, human beings, as well animals, primarily engage emotionally with the world. Thus no human decision can be purely rational.

Look at the Europeans who destroyed their continent during the Second Thirty-Year War.

Look at the Americans waging a war for 20 years against Muslims to make the Middle East safe for Israel?

Posted by: Fyi | Dec 8 2020 2:59 utc | 86

I have a particular problem with the Sunni/Shi'a trope that has gained a mythical status as one of the main basis for conflict. The ferocity with which GCC sheikdoms have unleashed their bandits on Syria, which is a majority Sunni country, with SAA being composed mostly of Sunni.

And this is only the recent history, the past history is that shows little evidence of such conflicts, nothing to compare with the European 30 Years War, which had at its core religious causes (catholic vs. protestant).

No, the main problem the Sunni countries is that they are Absolute Monarchies that want to weaken as much as possible the big republics around them (Iran, Iraq, Syria). Iran is the most dangerous because it also has this religious blend mixed in the fabric of its constitution, which is less so in Iraq and Syria. Egypt, while in name a republic, after Nasser's assassination, has reverted to the Mameluke rule - military dictatorship - which has been in the fabric of that polity for many hundreds of years...

The sheiks fear that with strong and prosperous republics, their own subjects (not citizens) will rise up and ask for at least a constitutional monarchy, where the monarchy has the wings clipped. So if they can use any tool to counteract that, including the sunni/shi'a split, they will use it with abandon, no problem. Hey, to keep their power and privileges they would even convert, you name the option.

Posted by: Kouros | Dec 8 2020 3:45 utc | 87

"I think the JCPOA was simply designed to buy time to allow for regime change to work.."
Posted by: Kevin | Dec 7 2020 19:18 utc | 3

I think the JCPOA was simply designed to buy Iran time for the day when it would inevitably face further aggression from the West ..

Posted by: blue moon | Dec 8 2020 3:50 utc | 88

Mr. Kouros

During the American occupation of Afghanistan, there has been persistent attacks on Shia Muslims, on their mosques, schools, shops, markets, on their children and womenfolk.

In Pakistan the same pattern of attacks presents itself but with less frequency.

Significantly, the perpetrators have not been Jews, Christians of various sort, atheists, Buddhists, Baha'is, Druze, Zoroastrians, Yazidis, Hindus, Jains, or Sikhs.

They have Sunni Muslims.

The Sunni Kurds in Iran fought against the Islamic Republic, the Shia Kurds did not.

All of this has had a long history, such as repeated raids by Sunni Muslims into Khorasan during much of 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th centuriesin search of Shia slaves, booty, or hostages for ransom. Until the Russian Empire put and end to them. Or the rape of Kerbala by Salfis in the 18th century, desecrating the shrines of Imam Hussein and his Comrades and Companions.

Salafis hate the Shia. Deobandi Baluchis hate the Shia. Sunni Kurds were butchering Revolutionary Guard captives at their weddings. On and on and on and on.

In Syria you have a point but even there, the Urban and Urbane managerial and professional and commercial classes coalesced around a core of Alevis, with their Trinutrian religion around Imam Ali, to protect themselves against a Sunni onslaught that considered the Syrian Arab Republic apostate and deserving of destruction and its supporters deserving of only beheading and slavery.

Posted by: Fyi | Dec 8 2020 4:26 utc | 89

Keep your daily news watch on DoubleDownNews

You will find gems like David Graeber too.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 8 2020 4:29 utc | 90

Mr. Blue Moon

Yes, exactly, a cease-fire.

Americans broke it thinking that they can crush Iran. They thought, if they can even think thins through, that Iran is like a chicken, and they are going to wrung its neck once and for all.

Some chicken!

Some neck!

Posted by: Fyi | Dec 8 2020 4:30 utc | 91

I have to agree with b that no self-respecting nation could or would agree to a more onerous JCPOA, which is probably what Biden is daydreaming about. It's becoming increasingly obvious that once the "Israel" Lobby gets its claws into your (pseudo-Christian) government, it's no longer your government.

Oz is about to pay a huge price for Scum Mo's "Israel" and AmeriKKKa boot-licking. Yesterday, AmeriKKKa imposed financial sanctions on 14 senior CPC officials as payback for China's resistance to the West's sleazy, half-baked, Mock Democracy campaign in Hong Kong.

It won't take long for China to demonstrate to everyone in Oz, except Scum Mo, that Oz exporters need China's market a helluva lot more than China need Oz exports. They warned him that being a China-bashing US poodle would have "consequences" but he persuaded himself that they were just kidding.
We'll soon find out...

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 8 2020 4:36 utc | 92

@55 Framarz

Sakineh, you are one fine lady!

Why, thank you, Framarz. Of course flattery won’t get you anywhere with me. :)

Framarz, if you believe what you say above, then you’d heed this advice. You need to clean it up with kooshy. Make amends. You are both valuable contributors. kooshy is well informed and well connected person, born to a historian from Yazd, if memory serves, with zero tolerance for BS. He sees it a-mile-coming. Always read what he says, not the way he says it. Also, Iranians having invented etiquette don’t behave like this in public forums. Like you said 100s of young impressionable students may be reading this.

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Dec 8 2020 4:56 utc | 93

The sanctions introduced by that criminal bastard Trump on Iran and Venezuela are having a terrible impact on the people of both countries in the middle of a pandemic and especially on Venezuela that was in dire economic circumstances although Iran too had suffered greatly before the JCPOA.

This is intolerable and inhumane and I blame Ziofascist Trump. The sanctions must end.

Glad Biden didn't pick Flournoy for Defense. General Lloyd Austin oversaw major troop withdrawals from Iraq and opposed military intervention in Syria. Of the 3 choices Biden had in mind, he is the least hawkish.

Maybe he'll choose Jeh Johnson for Attorney General instead.

Biden must stick to the original deal and remove those sanctions. Iran was honoring the deal and has suffered enough injustice.

Posted by: Circe | Dec 8 2020 5:07 utc | 94

Paul #61

_AR_ #70

Listen to Prince Turki al-Faisal

Thank you both for that post. It was great to hear Prince al-Faisal clear restatement of the Arab peace proposal yet again. It would be remarkable if the Arab and Iranian leaders could set aside their endless squabble and find unity for peace. THAT is the direction the world needs to head in to stave off the worst impacts of the financial ruin that is fast approaching. It is a bold step for them both to take but they are now faced with a high risk of mutual ruin while the zionist devils gamble on the spoils.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Dec 8 2020 5:27 utc | 95

Best to wait a bit before you all get too excited about what Biden/Harris are going to do in office.
Sh*t about to hit the proverbial fan.

Posted by: Perimetr | Dec 8 2020 5:28 utc | 96

Joe Biden's, enter colorful comment here, is not a realistic option.
Well, yes, enter colorful comment here.
Last I heard, this idiot (while wearing his 'special little guy boot') said he wanted his inauguration to be on a video feed or some shit...
Are these goofballs really saying shit like that outloud in front of living people these days?
Fuck man...
Is this supposed to be a 'funny joke'?

Posted by: Josh | Dec 8 2020 5:51 utc | 97

@ Perimetr | Dec 8 2020 5:28 utc | 97 who wrote
"
Best to wait a bit before you all get too excited about what Biden/Harris are going to do in office.
Sh*t about to hit the proverbial fan.
"

Such a tease. I would at least throw out that I read in the last 24 hours about a forensic team going through the Dominion voting system....wonder what they might find?

Yes, I think it is quite possible that the corruption of American politicians and government employees could give Trump his 2nd term and further the Shock Doctrine event that Trump started with his 1st term.

What a shit show. If humans in the West love their children they will make this shit show end by eliminating global private finance and reining in those that say they own the world and everything in it.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Dec 8 2020 6:12 utc | 98

@Don Bacon #62

Gen. Lloyd Austin to be new Sec of Defense. That would be another mistake, putting a general officer in what should be a civilian position. Most generals (not all) are not mentally equipped -

The professional military mind is by necessity an inferior and unimaginative mind; no man of high intellectual quality would willingly imprison his gifts in such a calling.

Posted by: bart1 | Dec 8 2020 6:45 utc | 99

Judaism is a dualistic religion, that is, Jews beliefe in "good" and "evil".

"Good" is they themself, the Jewish people, all racially pure and good.

"Evil" is a bit more tricky. According to Jewish mythology the Jews, when they left Egypt, were attacked by a tribe called Amalek. The Amalekites were defeated and their descendants scattered among the peoples (Goyim), cursed by god to fight "good" in all eternity. Once in a generation Amalek would rise somewhere in the world and try to annihilate the Jewish people.

This is what "the mullahs" are according to this fairy tale world view. Analysts who beliefe that Israel is motivated by this or that concrete material or political advantage are mistaken. It is all ideology. Most Jews do sincerely beliefe that "the mullahs" strive for the bomb in order to annihilate the Jews and in the process destroy the Palestinians, Iran and themselves as well because that's just who they are - pure evil. Trying to negotiate with Amalek is testimony of a lack of morality and the inability to distinguish good from evil (=pretty much the definition of Goy).

Posted by: m | Dec 8 2020 6:57 utc | 100