"Fog in channel. Continent cut off." is a famous headline that was once used in a British newspaper (or maybe not). It encapsulates the snobbish British attitude towards Europe. Some fog indeed arose in the channel today but a much denser cloud will arise from the waters on January 1.
The new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus now per-dominant in south England has give a sudden foretaste of the chaos that can be expected at Britain's borders 10 days from now when Britain will leave the custom union and common market with the EU.
It remains unclear how much the mutant virus will change the course of the pandemic:
Scientists, meanwhile, are hard at work trying to figure out whether B.1.1.7 is really more adept at human-to-human transmission—not everyone is convinced yet—and if so, why. They’re also wondering how it evolved so fast. B.1.1.7 has acquired 17 mutations all at once, a feat never seen before.
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One reason to be concerned, [Andrew Rambaut, a molecular evolutionary biologist at the University of Edinburgh,] says, is that among the 17 mutations are eight in the gene that encodes the spike protein on the viral surface, two of which are particularly worrisome. One, called N501Y, has previously been shown to increase how tightly the protein binds to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor, its entry point into human cells. The other, named 69-70del, leads to the loss of two amino acids in the spike protein and has been found in viruses that eluded the immune response in some immunocompromised patients.
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In a press conference on Saturday, Chief Science Adviser Patrick Vallance said B.1.1.7, which first appeared in a virus isolated on 20 September, accounted for about 26% of cases in mid-November. “By the week commencing the ninth of December, these figures were much higher,” he said. “So, in London, over 60% of all the cases were the new variant.” Johnson added that the slew of mutations may have increased the virus’ transmissibility by 70%.Christian Drosten, a virologist at Charité University Hospital in Berlin, says that was premature. “There are too many unknowns to say something like that,” he says. For one thing, the rapid spread of B.1.1.7 might be down to chance. Scientists previously worried that a variant that spread rapidly from Spain to the rest of Europe—confusingly called B.1.177—might be more transmissible, but today they think it is not; it just happened to be carried all over Europe by travelers who spent their holidays in Spain. Something similar might be happening with B.1.1.7, says Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at Georgetown University. Drosten notes that the new mutant also carries a deletion in another viral gene, ORF8, that previous studies suggest might reduce the virus’ ability to spread.
Some 40 countries reacted to yesterday's news of the new virus variant by stopping air traffic with Britain. France closed all transport links with the island. Britain depends on food from abroad and there were immediately fears about supply shortages:
UK supermarkets and supply chain experts warned of potential shortages of some products if the French restrictions aren't eased soon. The UK government held a crisis meeting Monday.
One major supermarket chain, Sainsbury's, said it had stockpiled enough produce to prevent Brits going without their Christmas dinners but warned of shortages of some fresh fruit and vegetables if the situation doesn't improve soon.
"If nothing changes, we will will start to see gaps over the coming days on lettuce, salad leaves, cauliflowers, broccoli, citrus fruit — all of which are imported from EU at this time of year," Sainsbury's said in a statement. "We hope UK and French [governments] can come to a solution that prioritizes immediate passage of produce and food."
The closing down of transport routes makes little sense as the horse has already left the proverbial barn. The B.1.1.7 mutant was first observed on September 20. As it is now prevalent in south Britain it has certainly already crossed the borders and reached other countries. If it really has an advantage over other variants of the virus by being more infectious it will in the end be found all over the world.
Britain has an excellent integrated surveillance system for virus variants. In about 5% of all Covid-19 cases in Britain the virus genome gets sequenced. Other countries sequence one in 1000 cases or even less. There is no way they could find and isolate all carriers of the new variant.
The proverbial fog that came down with the new virus variant is therefore likely to lift soon.
But a few days later the fog will arise again. Over the last days the chance of a hard no-deal Brexit on December 31 has mightily increased. Without a deal the easy transfer of goods from and to Britain will end. As new procedure have not been put into place the chaos that will cause will by far exceed anything we are seeing today.
Yves Smith sees little chance for a deal to still happen. Her opener is appropriate:
One has to wonder if all the bad karma that the UK incurred in its imperial days has finally come home to roost with a vengeance. The UK has found that the Brexit cliff edge arrived early thanks to a Covid cordon imposed by its trade partners, and as we’ll discuss soon, the real Brexit cliff is bearing down on the UK.
The last negotiations on Sunday about a deal that would allow Britain common market access have failed. There are at least two open issues. Fishing rights for EU countries in British waters is the more populist one. But the 'level playing field', which means that Britain has to stick to some EU rules if it wants free market access, is the way more important issue:
Because the Brexit deadline “wolf” has been cried one too many times, the press is under-reacting to the failure to come to an agreement over the weekend. This is an event horizon. It even resembles the way the real-life version is supposed to work, that there’s no obvious change when an object gets irrevocably sucked into the gravitational field of a black hole. The two sides are bizarrely still talking about a deal that now can’t get done in time as opposed to changing focus to what happens on January 1 and what can be done to ameliorate the damage.
In fairness, the EU now looks to be engaging in an empty exercise simply to preserve its claim that it didn’t leave the negotiating table. But Barnier would need a new mandate to do anything different, or at least some interim guidance from the Commission.
Nevertheless, the talks appear to be terminal even though both sides are still meeting. The headlines in the UK press are also making it sound as if fish, which to Brexiteers means EU intransigence, are scuppering the deal, when the critically important “level playing field” is still unresolved.
The EU can now allow Britain free access to its market and allow it to subsidize its companies or to lower working, health or quality standards. That would give British companies an unfair advantage over those within the EU. Barnier, the chief EU negotiator, has order not to move on the issue. But in the eyes of a Brexiteer a 'level playing field' means that Britain must follow EU rules and thereby does not have full sovereignty. Unless Boris Johnson makes a 180 degree turn and accepts the 'level playing field' clauses today, no deal will be made.
Anything negotiated beyond today can not be ratified by the EU parliament before January 1. Those who expect that the EU parliament will fudge the issues, and will let a deal pass without having sufficient time to look into it, misjudge the mood Brussels is in.
It's over. Brexit is done. Unfortunatelly done in a way that maximizes the damage it will cause.
