Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 04, 2020

Trump Claims Election Fraud, Says He Has Won

WaPo:

With millions of votes yet to be counted, President Trump falsely asserted election fraud, pledged to mount a legal challenge to official state results and made a premature claim of victory.

Weird to have popcorn for breakfast ...

Posted by b on November 4, 2020 at 8:14 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Deltaeus

The empire is just to be restarted, deep state got their way,

How Biden plans to undo Trump's 'America First' foreign policy and return US to world stage
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/biden-foreign-policy-plans/index.html

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 4 2020 20:11 utc | 201

Posted by: james | Nov 4 2020 20:01 utc | 198


I thought it was intended as a right-leaning individual in America's take on what he THINKS is going to be the urban terrorism coming from the left? Didn't make it very far into that one.

I linked piece that kind of deals with the same situation from the left/anarchist perspective over at Crimethinc.com the other week. Richard Steven Hack and I discussed it in one of the other open threads. I recommend reading it. The title is something like "Preparing for a Right Wing Power Grab after the Election."


Posted by: Kadath | Nov 4 2020 20:01 utc | 199


OK, yes that makes sense. But you have to consider that the USPS wasn't operating at full capacity or 24/7 so it's possible that there wouldn't be any more votes to count in those places until the first deliveries of the morning. Otherwise, you'd think that these states had in place a plan to ensure round-the-clock counting efforts being run in shifts. I can't imagine they didn't IF there were manual (in-person) ballots still left to count, but I have no idea.


Agree with your second paragraph. This will be fought out in the courts like Bush v. Gore, but it will be much more contentious and long-running, and that will open the door for all sorts of "unrest" or "clashes" between police and demonstrators or between operatives, rioters and demonstrators. It's in the best interest of most Americans to wrap it up as quickly as possible, no matter who ends up winning

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 20:11 utc | 202

Jesus B,
It's a US (s)election, there was fraud on both "sides" and always has been.
It would impossible for either candidate to "falsely claim election fraud".

Don't get excited folks, nothing was going to change much or for very long no matter who won the (s)election.

Don't let the bastards trick you into doing something stupid. The US has always been an oligarchy anyway.

Posted by: dave | Nov 4 2020 20:13 utc | 203

blues #22

It's very simple.

Yes - as a crude voting measure it is, plus it is flawed and does not give a truly representative outcome. You can easily arrive at a leading candidate that has well below 50% of the vote. It can (and usually is) gamed by having the big players secretly nominating all manner of fringe candidates to fracture opposing parties that are coalitions of interests.

Ranked choice or preferential voting is a great system where the voter is respected and their preferred candidates each get a number ranking. When counted the lowest scored candidate is eliminated and the 2nd preference allocated. The minute any candidate scores %50+ of the valid ballots cast - that candidate wins. No dodgy numbers or mysticism or fraud - just respect for the voters preferences (not the oligarch parties bullying). Its called voting as if democracy mattered.

Another good system is where you can have multi member parliaments comprised of members in proportion to the votes cast (usually you get in if your party gets %10+ or some respectable low end threshold). That works really well in places and gives the nation a congress that encompasses the national will and reflects the voters desire. This builds confidence and respect in the election process and usually increases participation.

These are very simple systems and when combined with postal and early voting stations maximises the democratic participation. Postal voting is secure and robust enough to eliminate mass fraud attempts very easily so lets not waste our time there please. Electronic ballot lodging machines are not yet secure enough to pass the sniff test. Electronic scanner/counters are mighty reliable though. I prefer hand counting in open supervised places where party representatives can over see the process and can challenge if necessary- that too is a respectful democratic norm in many places.

Most countries are not fooled by the crappy 'first past the post' hoax.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 4 2020 20:23 utc | 204

james,

I was incorrect. It is, in fact, an anti-Trumper "guide to prevent a coup" (presumably by Trump and the Republicans). LOL, I may circle back to it later, but I've done all the reading I can on that topic over the past few weeks.

karlof1,

I don't agree with all of Jay's points on why "the left" should vote for Biden, but he does have a few compelling reasons in there. I wouldn't have voted for him if I was still in the USSA.

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 20:27 utc | 205

Glenn Greenwald has another (probably paywalled) post up with a promise for another one later. He seems mystified by why the USA can't manage to count most or all of the votes on the day of an election, even when COVID wasn't an issue. LOL - there's a darn good reason for it - TPTB and Republicans don't want the unwashed masses to vote at all and therefore they have erected barrier after barrier for these people to cast their ballots going back tens of decades. Hence, the slow to count votes are almost always coming from areas that are heavily populated by Blacks and Latinos. It's BY DESIGN, Glenn.

Excerpt:

No matter what the final result, there will be substantial doubts about its legitimacy by one side or the other, perhaps both. And no deranged conspiracy thinking is required for that. An electoral system suffused with this much chaos, error, protracted outcomes and seemingly inexplicable reversals will sow doubt and distrust even among the most rational citizens.

The next time Americans hear from their government that they need to impose democracy in other countries — through wars, invasion, bombing campaigns or other forms of clandestine CIA “interference” — they should insist that democracy first be imposed in the United States. An already frazzled, intensely polarized and increasingly hostile populace now has to confront yet another election in the richest and most technologically advanced country on earth where the votes cannot even be counted in a way that inspires even minimal degrees of confidence.

My analysis of the election itself, and the ongoing, systemic failures of the Democratic Party no matter the outcome, will be posted later today.

Link to Greenwald's Substack here

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 20:36 utc | 206

thanks k_c_... i just thought it was odd to see something like that on google mostly because i view google as the establishment...the establishment offering ideas about how to overturn the establishment is funny... obviously i am reading too much into it all..

Posted by: james | Nov 4 2020 20:39 utc | 207

arby | Nov 4 2020 19:55 utc | 193:

Well, the Democrats are left of the GOP.   LOL

Posted by: Ian2 | Nov 4 2020 20:41 utc | 208

Jackrabbit # 98

The polling was even worse than 2016. LOL. Should we not be skeptical at that?

Not all polling - Trafalgar Group

Mind you I am not suggesting for one minute that this was a nice clean election with no fraud, no suppression, no dodgy counting. It is the USA after all and everything is fair game it appears.

It is possible the entire congressional law making machinery could grind to a halt. Mainly because the system became the actual spanner in the works that it has always been from the people's viewpoint. That could be a good thing as it might just introvert the attention of the warmongers to rectifying its malfunction.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 4 2020 20:43 utc | 209

I live in PA, Democrats cheat. Republicans let them. It is a very corrupt state. Having said all that, Trump didn't hold onto his 2016 white male base. Maybe it is just me, but I think that is huge. Had he kept them, he would have won despite Democrat (or is it intelligence agencies?) shenanigans. From what I read Jared told Ivanka's daddy they would vote for him. They had no other choice. I haven't stopped laughing all day over that Kushner fail.

Posted by: Old and Grumpy | Nov 4 2020 20:44 utc | 210

Isnt it the time for GOP now to start spreading the claim that Biden is a Chinese agent just like DNC did with Trump/Russia? Where is Mueller?

RIDING THE DRAGON: The Bidens' Chinese Secrets (Full Documentary)

Uncover Joe Biden and his family's secret relationship with China and the sinister business deals that enriched the Biden family at America's expense.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRmlcEBAiIs

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 4 2020 20:47 utc | 211

Jackrabbit 109

Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), and Nevada (6) will determine the winner.

Which ever candidate takes TWO of these states, wins the election.

Ok so for what it is worth. Trafalgar Group predicts a Trump lead by a whisker in each of those three states.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 4 2020 20:53 utc | 212

Welp, looks like it's over for Trump with these mail-in ballots.

What a shame.

Posted by: Smith | Nov 4 2020 20:56 utc | 213

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 4 2020 20:47 utc | 211

Good point. My memory is kind of hazy on the chronology of what went down in 2016, but by this point I'm pretty sure there were several stories starting to come out about how Russia "hacked" American "democracy" and the election. Remarkably silent they are this time around when their boy is doing better than Hillary was and could still win.

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 20:57 utc | 214

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 20:36 utc | 206 with the Glenn Greenwald quote

No matter what the final result, there will be substantial doubts about its legitimacy by one side or the other, perhaps both. And no deranged conspiracy thinking is required for that. An electoral system suffused with this much chaos, error, protracted outcomes and seemingly inexplicable reversals will sow doubt and distrust even among the most rational citizens.
The next time Americans hear from their government that they need to impose democracy in other countries — through wars, invasion, bombing campaigns or other forms of clandestine CIA “interference” — they should insist that democracy first be imposed in the United States.An already frazzled, intensely polarized and increasingly hostile populace now has to confront yet another election in the richest and most technologically advanced country on earth where the votes cannot even be counted in a way that inspires even minimal degrees of confidence.

My analysis of the election itself, and the ongoing, systemic failures of the Democratic Party no matter the outcome, will be posted later today.


The bold text is some odd framing. So according to Greenwald it's ok for the CIA to overthrow other governments as long as democracy is installed within the Empire?!

Posted by: v | Nov 4 2020 21:00 utc | 215

"Weird that MOA has turned into a full blown right wing blog.
Complete with race hate platform.
Encouraging covid deniers.
Lies by biased omissions.
Pyrrhic victory.
Who let the dogs out ?
b and James"

This is an interesting comment because I tend to see Moon as a more or less "full blown" left-wing blog. I guess that just goes to show the radical gulf that now separates people. We quite literally inhabit different world and the only way to reconcile it is with power.

Posted by: Ez | Nov 4 2020 21:02 utc | 216

Smith # 213

Welp, looks like it's over for Trump with these mail-in ballots.

What a shame.


Thank you Smith - made my day. But only one day. The balance of 1460 days will be spent celebrating the downfall of the USAi empire with any luck. And led by that right wing fuckwit Joe Biden. The only man who could walk and pocket cash and chew gum at the same time.

The US post office needs to be rebuilt and enlarged to include a peoples savings bank.
There should be a national postal holiday in honour of their grand contribution to participatory democracy.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 4 2020 21:06 utc | 217

It all boils down to Joe Stalin's statement that it is more important who counts the votes thanwho casts them. The states with all of the doubtful postal votes created by methods such as forging the names of mental incompetents living in rest homes are controlled by democratic political machines. Two of them, Minnesota and Wisconsin, apparently cast more votes than registered voters. Even if they allow same day registration, 90% turnout appears fraudulent based on the history and the quality of the candidates running, a mental incompetent with a proven record of corruption covered up by the propaganda media, and a blustery self-promoter who, even if he may have meant well in some of his pronouncements, proved inadequate to liquidate the deep state as promised because he kept appointing denizens of this establishment to key positions. His biggest mistake was his failure to achieve control over the Justice apparatus of the yankee state.

Posted by: exiled off mainstree | Nov 4 2020 21:09 utc | 218

@ Posted by: snake | Nov 4 2020 18:55 utc | 177

I do appreciate your posts but I do find them difficult to read.

Maybe I am in a minority, but for those who read like me would you consider using more spacing and paragraph spacing to make it easier for readers to comprehend your meaning?

I think it has to do with how the human eye scans and reads and digests. Younger generations brought up on social media may have different needs/uses. For us older generation (over 60), if it's all bunched up into one huge paragraph the message is not easily/readily received.

Just a suggestion. I'm just one reader so I may be off on this.

btw i read an article recently at global news on the use/misuse of electromagnetic wavelengths on human cognition and health.

Posted by: suzan | Nov 4 2020 21:11 utc | 219

@ Ez | Nov 4 2020 21:02 utc | 216.. regarding mark2's comment - @Mark2 | Nov 4 2020 8:27 utc | 1 - i see it much like you, but it seems mark 2 is unhappy that different viewpoints are being expressed here at moa, mostly with regard to covid, but also with regard to posters seeming to appear pro trump, so he has polarized the atmosphere further by trying to categorize moa a particular way.. that is most unfortunate, but the nice thing is people are allowed to post here at moa, even if they say things that appear upside down to others...

Posted by: james | Nov 4 2020 21:12 utc | 220

Ez | Nov 4 2020 21:02 utc | 216
„We quite literally inhabit different world and the only way to reconcile it is with power.“

Well, from the far distance it looks different. You would urgently need 3 things:
- all votes in any public affair must be counted by hand and reported in a non-partisan way
- superdelegates must be forbidden.
- abolish censorship in the media

Otherways you continue to inhabit 2 filter-bubbles oppoisite to each other, incommunicado. In this way one cannot live together in the same country.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Nov 4 2020 21:14 utc | 221

exiled off mainstree #218

His biggest mistake was his failure to achieve control over the Justice apparatus of the yankee state.

EXACTLY. Sessions then Barr - Trump appoints a do nothing wimp followed by a do nothing ball and chain. And puts up with it? Clearly he intended to balls it up but not spectacularly. Or else he was so impressed with himself that he just didn't give a shit. No prosecution of Debbie Wasserman Shultz and the Awan family and the single biggest spy/blackmail operation against Congress in USA history. That prosecution alone would have won him a second term.

But then, no war started, he has cemented the rise of debt settlement in anything but the $US, transformed the power relations in the world such that Eurasia is now a giant and the USAi has been deflated to lesser threat. He appointed a complete suite of asshats from the Class of '86 to destroy the USA from within. You have to hand it to West Point - they can train idiots into fuckwits and not fire a shot.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 4 2020 21:21 utc | 222

_K_C_ @205--

Thanks for your short reply. Yes, I didn't find Jay's reasoning on that topic agreeable either, nor did I vote for Biden. There were other elements within his essay that I did find worthy to note, which is why I linked to it. His podcast with Hudson was also marked by similar inconsistencies--but then we all share that problem--although the overall thrust was useful. (There's supposed to be a transcript of that soon to appear which will be clearer than the podcast, for which I'll keep my eyes open.) Also quite interesting to read was Professor Zhang's narrative about the development of the USA that can be read in this open preview of his book, The China Wave, which calls it out for what it was instead of obfuscating its violence as do US History textbooks.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 4 2020 21:23 utc | 223

If Biden wins, I am going to start Q.A., the A.A. version for QAnon. "show us on the Trump doll where the deep state touched you." If Trumps wins, I don't want to get shot, so no QAnon Anonymous.

in any case, it's all one. people in this country, my neighbors, really believe that Trump will save them from the pederasts and globalists. they also believe that Biden, i.e., the 2nd term of woodrow wilson or ronald reagan, is the answer to trumpism. don't people realize how unimportant the president is? is Trump the cog in C.O.G.? no he's not. this pseudo crisis is so unimportant.

as long as the bureaucracy gets paid, not a fucking thing in this society will change. people care about this idiotic election because of how utterly bored and ignorant they are. the base collapsed long ago, so what the hell do people think will happen to the parliamentary superstructure? turn on CSpan and note that the senators stopped giving a shit about the USG long ago. they are all MIA 99% of the time. but yeah, waste your worry on something the elected officials themselves care nothing about, the procedural facade.

nice one on the Soros-funded BLM though. that was cute. he still gives 10000 times more money to the cops there to kick in the teeth of BLM activists. more money to NATO and the Pentagon and, you know, charities are deductible so Soros doesn't give shit. Just like any of these other rich philanthropist fuckheads ("See how Caesar loved you!") we all have lots of facts at our fingertips, don't we? like going into a US grocery store. lots of facts on display and not one word of truth to be found anywhere. (no, not even that one little word "organic" can hold out against all the other hydrogenated high fructose fd&c yellow#5 genetically-modified petroleum-packaged words flashing and blinking and insisting everywhere. "this product made in a factory using lead, as detailed per CA law . now on sale! makes a great xmas gift.")

for some sickness the answer is death and there ain't no other. the US as a nation has been at that point for a long fucking time, no matter how many fart noises it can still make.


Posted by: jason | Nov 4 2020 21:37 utc | 224

@ 223 karlof1... i read that common dreams link as well and although i don't vote in the usa, i didn't find his argument convincing either.. please share the hudson transcript when you get it.. thanks..

Posted by: james | Nov 4 2020 21:38 utc | 225

More Ballots were found in Pennsylvania and every vote goes to...Biden

Two more batches of Pennsylvania vote were reported:
-23,277 votes in Philadelphia, all for Biden
-about 5,300 votes in Luzerne County, nearly 4,000 of which were for Biden

*With 83% of the expected vote in, Trump’s lead in PA is now just below 6 points.
https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1324093784452403202

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 4 2020 21:39 utc | 226

craig murrays view American Presidents

Posted by: james | Nov 4 2020 21:41 utc | 227

Posted by: exiled off mainstree | Nov 4 2020 21:09 utc | 218

That is a lot of claims in a single post, all without any links to back them up. What are your sources?

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 21:41 utc | 228

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 4 2020 21:39 utc | 226

Do you find any signs of fraud there? I'm sure there are election observers representing both parties where the mail-in ballots are being counted.

Meanwhile, in Detroit, we see the revival of "Brooks Brothers Riot" tactics from Trump's supporters.
Mob descends on vote counting location to demand the count be stopped.

Maybe let the counters do their jobs? Nah they'd rather just stop counting altogether the moment the returns and predictions are favoring Trump.

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 21:46 utc | 229

To everyone who seriously thinks mail-in voting is somehow secure by its very nature, or even superior to in-person voting - that's a patently absurd notion.

Ask yourselves this, if you had to give someone $100 and had to choose between mailing it (unregistered) or delivering it in person, what would you do?

Every grandma knows it's unwise to send money in an unregistered letter, or anything else of importance. And a vote is much more precious than any $$ bill, because you only have one, it can't be replaced. If it gets nicked, lost, destroyed or is delayed, it's gone.

Voting by mail is inherently much less secure than voting in person, in every corner of the world and even with the best-run letter carrier you can think of. But one aspect of the political landscape in the US makes it even less secure there than it normally would be, in other countries. You have to consider that 90% or so of USPS staff are a member of the 4 or 5 postal-worker unions. And they ALL have endorsed the Democrats early on. They all gave plenty to Democratic candidates this election cycle. What or who should stop a politicized and overbearing letter carrier from intercepting ballot letters coming from a Republican neighborhood? How would anybody even find out? And it's not just the letter carriers, it's the people at the sorting facilities as well. They wouldn't even have to destroy ballot letters from probable Republican senders, at the risk of producing evidence of their crime. It could be enough to just re-rout those so they don't make it to the polling station on time. "Whoops, sorry, an honest mistake. These things happen, right?"

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Nov 4 2020 21:47 utc | 230

Sorry, I should have excerpted the Independent's article @229

In fact they do discuss the observer situation:

According to the Detroit Free Press, the outrage began after a group of bipartisan poll watchers were not allowed to re-enter the counting room because officials said it was over capacity. Republicans in the group said being ejected meant those remaining inside were disproportionately Democratic, while others in the group noted that Democrats had been kept out too.

As of 4:25pm Eastern time, around when video of the incident was posted, there were 570 challengers total inside the TCF Center, including 227 Republicans, 268 Democrats, and 75 nonpartisan representatives.

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 21:49 utc | 231

# Zanon 211

Yes! The allegations at Biden are well known here, so to summarise: after Ho fiasco, Biden's got $4.8 million from CCP/Hudson West III to Hunter’s Owasco law firm bank. CEFC’s Biden hook-up was a 14% stake in Rosneft so China avoided US sanctions. One of lawyers working for Rosneft: Christopher Wray, before he became FBI director. Rosneft files have since been deleted by Mr. Wray’s old law firm, King and Spalding.

Biden was at it long before that - with Bill Clinton he was there at the lead of assisting in the break-up of Yugoslavia (sanctions could be bypassed if regions declared independence) then arming Bosnian Serb Islamists, then campaigning to use NATO to bomb a country that had invaded no-one. State assets went to usual players: Soros, Phillip Morris, Ford Family etc

https://youtu.be/waEYQ46gH08 Joe comes in at 46:04 aprox. - but come in at 41:00 to catch the whole segment.

Why do I raise this? Because it was here that Hillary witnessed the art of destroying a nation, raping it's resources and Balkanising it into puppet states. She put this knowledge to good use in Libya, and I'm grateful to Trump that she wasn't able to refine it in Syria - although she worked hard on the ratlines and covering her tracks killing Ambassador & staff.

When the system gets hold of the reigns again we will see the full Balkanisation of Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Eastern Turkey/Northern Syria. Trump is a misogynistic egoic AIPAC supporting oaf, and I've no love for him - but he is far more transparent - his ego forces him to be. He is not of the political class and I am grateful to any disruption he has caused to it and the military empire of the US, even though he has given Pompeo a very long leash - I guess it's a beltway cost of keeping in the game that at least one segment of Govt. is watching your back? I won't mourn his loss at all, but I do have a sense of foreboding that "the Armenia plan" will unfold faster under a BIS CFR alter boy President, than one from outside the "club".

End note. I don't usually comment here, (though have every right to do so I hope?)...mostly as there's many far more savy than I, but we've crossed a pivotal moment in the long war against Russia, and citizens who are aware of the dark undertows of geopolitics should be way above the foolish goosestep of both left & right showmanship. If we are lucky we'll live through the dark years ahead.

Posted by: Mercury | Nov 4 2020 21:52 utc | 232

Found this on Philadelphia, so fraud itself is not some made up conspiracy claim that never occur, thats for sure.


South Philly judge of elections admits he took bribes to stuff the ballot box for Democratic candidates
https://www.inquirer.com/news/voter-fraud-philadelphia-ward-leader-judge-of-elections-domenick-demuro-guilty-plea-20200521.html

Former congressman indicted on voter fraud, bribery charges
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/23/former-congressman-indicted-voter-fraud-bribery-charges-379935

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 4 2020 22:00 utc | 233

Trump: 'Surprise Ballot Dumps' Behind Lead Changes (Zero Hedge)

Russian internet trolls are amplifying election fraud claims, researchers say. (NYT)
Nov. 3, 2020, 6:30 p.m. ETNov. 3, 2020
By Sheera Frenkel

Social media accounts tied to a group of Russian trolls are amplifying claims of election fraud, according to researchers at the Election Integrity Partnership, a coalition of misinformation experts. <- How do misinformation experts misinform? Expertly!

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Nov 4 2020 22:06 utc | 234

Sad to report that I was unable to cast my ballot for Howie Hawkins, as he was not on the ballot here. I had to hold my nose and vote for the Party for Socialism and Liberation instead. The only other alternative was the SWP, but I don't trust Trotskyists after Kronstadt. Give me the sincere tankies, at least I know what I'm getting.

Posted by: fnord | Nov 4 2020 22:11 utc | 235

Posted by: v | Nov 4 2020 21:00 utc | 215

If you do not believe in democracy, you wish it for your enemies. If you are a friend, you do not need to bother with the headaches and troubles that democracy entails.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Nov 4 2020 22:11 utc | 236

First response of the day:

1) Anyone who thinks the vote corruption is only being done by Democrats is a moron.

2) Recommend you follow the FiveThirtyEight blog where they are giving out regular updates (if you, like me, can't bother with TV newscasters). See a sample of updates below.

3) Lot of Trump trolls here today. Do us regulars a favor and FTHO (Fuck The Hell Off).

4) Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux (FiveThirtyEight) Nov. 4, 2:10 pm

The USPS hearing has started up again, with one possibly noteworthy tidbit at the beginning — the plaintiffs asked a USPS official who is testifying to respond to a tip that several days’ worth of ballots are still sitting in a post office facility in Greensboro, NC. The agency says they’ll look into it and report back to the judge. There’s still no more concrete information on the scope of the delivery issues, though, which is really important — the USPS does not appear to have hit its delivery targets in several key states yesterday, but the scope of the problem (aka how many ballots are affected) is much less clear.

The lawyers for the plaintiffs say there may be an estimated 3,000 ballots in the NC facility — but again, this is just a tip they (and the court) are asking the agency to investigate. And because the Supreme Court allowed North Carolina’s 9-day ballot receipt extension to stand, if there are ballots located, they can still be counted.

5) Maggie Koerth (FiveThirtyEight) Nov. 4, 2:09 pm

People have been messaging me all afternoon asking why none of the networks were projecting Wisconsin for Biden, given that the state’s officials have told reporters the votes are all counted. Well, the first projection is in. CNN has called Wisconsin for Biden. Notably for us, a division of ABC News, ABC News has not made that same call — and won’t, because the margin between Trump and Biden is less than 1 percent. Biden is about 20,000 votes ahead in Wisconsin (which is more than Trump was ahead of Clinton in that state when the AP called Wisconsin for him in 2016).

6) Nathaniel Rakich (FiveThirtyEight) Nov. 4, 2:11 pm

The Arizona Republic surveyed county recorders and estimates that 600,000 ballots remain to be counted in Arizona. A full 450,000 of those ballots are in Maricopa County (Phoenix) and break down as follows: 248,000 early ballots (which in Arizona includes both mail-in and in-person votes) that arrived on Monday or Tuesday, 160,000-180,000 mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day and 29,000 provisional ballots. Maricopa expects to release two batches of results tonight: one at 9 p.m. Eastern and one sometime after 12:30 a.m. Eastern.

7) Dan Hopkins FiveThirtyEight Nov. 4, 3:11 pm

I’m keeping a close eye on Pennsylvania. In the 26 predominantly rural counties that are reporting more than 98 percent of their expected vote, I estimate Biden to be outperforming Clinton’s 2016 performance there by 1.4 percentage points, on average. Philadelphia also just dropped new ballots, bringing Biden’s total up to 414,499 in the city with no fewer than 140,000 mail ballots waiting to be counted. Trump has already logged 110,000 votes from the city, just about his total from 2016. I think Biden may not reach the 584,000 votes Clinton won here and may have to hope he can make up the lost ground elsewhere, most likely in the suburbs. If Philadelphia’s turnout is down in part because college students aren’t at Temple, Drexel or Penn, some fraction of those votes might be cast elsewhere in the state.

8) Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux FiveThiryEight Nov. 4, 3:14 pm

Although ABC has said Biden is the “apparent winner” in Wisconsin, the Trump campaign has also vowed a recount, which is possible as long as the margin is within 1 percentage point. Biden’s current lead is very close to Trump’s winning margin in the state in 2016, though — and a recount in that year just confirmed Trump’s win, with the vote totals barely budging from his initial count. That’s in line with what we know about recounts more generally — they rarely swing enough votes to change the winner. Earlier today, former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a Republican, tacitly acknowledged that reality in a tweet, noting that in two state recounts (including the one in 2016) the totals only changed by a couple hundred votes. So a recount would be highly unlikely to change the situation for Trump, who is currently lagging Biden by about 20,000 votes.

9) Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux FiveThiryEight Nov. 4, 3:50 pm

The Trump campaign is asking the Supreme Court to intervene again in the case about Pennsylvania’s ballot receipt deadline. In the lead-up to the election, the justices twice declined Republicans’ request to overrule the Pennsylvania Supreme Court decision that extended the deadline by three days, but also didn’t say the state court’s decision was constitutional — in fact, three of the conservative justices overtly signaled that they thought it was not, and left open the possibility that the case could be revisited if the late-arriving ballots were decisive. Now, the Trump campaign is asking the court to weigh in again — but it’s worth emphasizing that this only applies to late-arriving ballots and not the on-time ballots that are still currently being counted. (Not to mention, we’re still waiting on final outcomes in several other pivotal states.) So it’s still not clear how much of a difference the late-arriving ballots will make, and hence how important this move could be.

10) Clare Malone FiveThirtyEight Nov. 4, 4:23 pm

As we head towards the sun setting on Day 2 of election week, we’re starting to see some more active efforts by Trump supporters to signal their anger at the legitimate counting of ballots. There are a couple of videos of protesters in Detroit floating around. In one, you can hear Trump’s supporters chanting “stop the vote.” That is some kind of rhetoric for an election in a democracy.

11) Nate Silver FiveThirtyEight Nov. 4, 4:31 pm
Where The Outstanding Presidential Races Stand, From Most Likely Trump Win To Least Likely Trump Win

Nate here. Stepping back into the saddle here for the rest of the day after a brief rest. I’m going to give you a rundown of how I’m currently seeing the states where we still don’t have projections, even though it might be a little redundant with what we’ve written earlier.

But here’s where the presidential race stands from most likely Trump win to least likely Trump win:

North Carolina. Trump leads by 1.4 points or about 77,000 votes, but mail ballots can arrive after Election Day in North Carolina, so perhaps 5 percent of the vote is still outstanding. The mail vote should be pretty blue in North Carolina, but is it enough to flip the state? Probably not, according to The Upshot’s needle, which gave Biden about a 15 percent chance in North Carolina before it was frozen. I’d call this one Likely Trump, although 15 percent chances aren’t zero, obviously!

Georgia. Trump leads by 78,000 votes without around 200,000 votes outstanding (there’s some uncertainty over the exact number). That seems like a tall order for Biden, but the remaining vote is expected to be very blue: mail votes from blue counties plus some Election Day votes from predominantly Black precincts in blue counties. The Upshot’s needle actually had Biden slightly favored to pull it off as of last night. We’ll know more soon. Let’s say Tossup but you could force me into Lean Biden if you told me I had to make a pick.

Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden.

Arizona. We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. What’s left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re disrupted fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be continued) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday were: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.

There’s also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. I’d assume they’ve put more work into looking into this than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you will get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, I’d say this is Likely Biden but I don’t think the state should have been called yet.

Nevada. This one’s a bit more straightforward. Biden leads by only 0.6 percent or about 7,500 votes. But what’s remaining should be pretty good for him. It’s all mail-in ballots that were either received late in the process or which are still coming in — in Nevada, mail ballots can be received by Nov. 10 provided they’re postmarked by Election Day. The mail ballots were quite blue in Nevada by party registration, much more so than in Arizona, including votes that arrived relatively late in the process. Likely Biden.

Michigan. Biden is ahead, leading by around 61,000 votes or 1.2 percentage points. His lead has been growing and given what votes are outstanding, is likely to grow further. Likely Biden.

Wisconsin. No known votes left to be counted. The Trump campaign says it will seek a recount, but recounts rarely change results, and certainly not with something on the magnitude of Biden’s 20,000-vote lead. Biden is the “apparent winner,” per ABC News.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 4 2020 22:13 utc | 237

As had already been announcedi will happen before elections, Trumpsters trying to stop the count:

Video: Protestors in Detroit Push to Vote Tally Room, Demand to 'Stop the Count

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Nov 4 2020 22:14 utc | 238

Mercury # 232

but we've crossed a pivotal moment in the long war against Russia, and citizens who are aware of the dark undertows of geopolitics should be way above the foolish goosestep of both left & right showmanship. If we are lucky we'll live through the dark years ahead.

Thank you Mercury, well said in your entire post.

I trust the tight outcome in the senate congressional chambers will gridlock the USAi imperialist plunder game for a few years. Not confident of that though - just trust. I assume we will stumble through but I imagine there will be some mighty tense moments as various small countries have to resist the destructive undermining of the UKUSAi rapist/plunderers.

The great game of plunder has been underway for centuries and we live in a time of it being exposed in stark relief. It is easier to call it out but much more difficult to suppress its malign game. The sooner the western capitalist nations return to a mixed economy and defang the private sector plunder the better. We all need to start at home and put shoulder to the wheel.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 4 2020 22:19 utc | 239

You have to consider that 90% or so of USPS staff are a member of the 4 or 5 postal-worker unions. And they ALL have endorsed the Democrats early on. They all gave plenty to Democratic candidates this election cycle. What or who should stop a politicized and overbearing letter carrier from intercepting ballot letters coming from a Republican neighborhood? How would anybody even find out? And it's not just the letter carriers, it's the people at the sorting facilities as well. They wouldn't even have to destroy ballot letters from probable Republican senders, at the risk of producing evidence of their crime. It could be enough to just re-rout those so they don't make it to the polling station on time. "Whoops, sorry, an honest mistake. These things happen, right?"

This is a misleading way to describe the situation. First of all, I think it's been pretty widely covered that post offices (mainly in Democrat or swing areas) were being intentionally understaffed and mail counting/sorting machines were being decommissioned. The type of fraud you allege would take a highly coordinated, well-staffed effort if it was going to have any significant impact on the outcome of an election.

The White House recently published a Heritage Foundation PDF regarding cases of vote fraud throughout the United States and most of them didn't involve mail-in ballots (48 out of about 550 total). The ones that did were largely one-off cases of people "accidentally" voting twice because they moved to a different state or voting for a deceased person/relative in which they HAPPENED to be using the mail. Also most of them were for primaries, local or regional elections. Furthermore, they rarely specify what political party would have benefited, but when they do, it's a mixed bag. Here's one example:

Audrey Cook, a Madison County election judge, sent in a ballot marked for Donald Trump in the 2016 election on behalf of her recently deceased husband. She pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge of attempted violation of the election code in exchange for dropping a felony perjury charge.

Election officials and the FBI say it's almost impossible to pull off fraud via mail-in ballots. Spreading disinformation about voting-by-mail is much easier.

So committing fraud might be easier by mail than it is with in-person voting, but it would take a major secretive coordinated operation targeting certain ZIP codes to fundamentally alter the outcome of an election, and they'd have to do so while NEVER getting caught.

Generally up to 1 in 5 mail ballots are tossed out ANYWAY, and even in Democrat controlled states, they tend to be votes for Democrats. See New York's primary for an example.

In cases where a postal carrier throws away ballots before delivering them to the next stop toward their destination, sometimes when they are blank and the destination is TO a voter BEFORE they are filled out. Here's an example of that.

New Jersey Postal Worker Charged with Throwing Away Ballots West Orange is a heavily Democrat area that went for Gore, Kerry, and I believe Clinton over Trump, but I couldn't find stats for that election.


Mail Carrier Changed Primary Ballot Requests from Democrat to Republican in West Virginia Who knows what his real motivations were, but it was only like 5 ballots so I actually tend to believe when he says it was a "joke" - he probably knew the people whose ballots he changed.

After doing my own exhaustive (for me) research on this topic, I couldn't find any evidence of either a systemic capability for this kind of fraud, nor of examples that rise to the level of mid- to large-scale targeted (favoring one party over another) or mass (throwing out more than a few hundred) disenfranchisement.

So yeah, it's POSSIBLE to commit fraud when voting by mail, but very unusual and in the current state of the USPS under DeJoy, I would have to see evidence rather than innuendo and speculation before I grant any credence to Trump's fear mongering over mail-in ballots.

I will grant you this - The 2020 Presidential election is VERY CLOSE (h/t Jackrabbit) and there are many precincts that are down to just a few votes in one direction or the other, so any fraud committed would be amplified under the present circumstances. So a single county or precinct could in fact have ramifications at the national level, like they did in 2016 where Killary narrowly lost and Obama had won before her. But again, I'm just not seeing mail in ballot fraud proof to justify all the hand wringing and attempts to cast doubt on the process, mostly emanating from Republicans and Trump.

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 22:22 utc | 240

Posted by: Zanon | Nov 4 2020 22:00 utc | 233

You might find this to be interesting reading. As I noted in my post above, only about 48 cases of more than 500 total involved mail-in ballots and the types of fraud committed spans a wide gamut and includes primaries, mayoral and city council elections. Note that it's compiled by right-leaning Heritage Foundation and republished by Donald Trump's White House. Also note that there are very few if any dates given, nor do they go out of their way to specify what particular political party would have benefitted.

A sampling of election fraud cases from across the country

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 22:29 utc | 241

What we’re seeing happening in Michigan and Wisconsin is nothing short of election theft. That is unambiguous to anyone who is paying attention. But they’re having trouble revealing it to other Americans because, on cue, it’s being censored across the board. The President’s Tweets are being hit. Prominent conservatives’ Facebook and Twitter posts are being suppressed.

For those who are just coming in on the topic I’m conspicuously dancing around, it appears that the election really is being stolen right before our eyes. Michigan and Wisconsin are seeing voting totals materialize overnight that make it clear the fix is in. And they’re not even trying to hide it. In Michigan, an overnight vote update added 138,339 votes to Vice President Joe Biden’s totals. That same updated yield… wait for it… ZERO votes for President Trump.

Posted by: cal | Nov 4 2020 22:43 utc | 242

If truth cannot be determined, or proven, in the election process, then the election process is null and void in reality.

Posted by: Josh | Nov 4 2020 22:46 utc | 243

@Richard Steven Hack 237

Thanks for that exerpt. I think Silver has it about right - if anything, he is being conservative now (after all the polls, who he sortof represents, fell flat on their face).

I don't see much there for Trump in Arizona. Trump may well get a 20k ish chunk of votes back in the AZ-6 House district, but not enough to change the state's outcome. The rest of the districts in AZ that have uncounted votes I don't think will add up to much in either direction. I'm reading the state's choice to stop giving updates every hour or two, as a favor to the Trump campaign so they can sort things out with Wisconsin.

Regarding the Wisconsin recount -- Many Biden ballots can get thrown out. But many Trump ballots can also get thrown out. Besides the difference being much smaller, this tactic worked in Florida 2000 because Republicans controlled the whole thing. Don't think it's quite as one sided in Wisconsin. Won't stop them from trying.

Posted by: ptb | Nov 4 2020 22:47 utc | 244

cal # 242

Thank you for pointing out numerical troubles in the USAi. Many of us have known about those troubles for decades. Perhaps you might care to do something about it. I see Nate Silver is not alarmed though. Time will yell us more of the mysterious origin of YOUR numbers.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 4 2020 22:49 utc | 245

cal,

What we’re seeing happening in Michigan and Wisconsin is nothing short of election theft. That is unambiguous to anyone who is paying attention. But they’re having trouble revealing it to other Americans because, on cue, it’s being censored across the board. The President’s Tweets are being hit. Prominent conservatives’ Facebook and Twitter posts are being suppressed.

Please elaborate. What kind of theft is being committed in MI and WI? If it's unambiguous, please direct us to a source. I am not saying I doubt it's possible, but I've been observing US politics for a long time now and the two biggest cases of fraud in a Presidential election both benefited Republicans, even in "blue" states. So what's going on up in Meatchicken and Wiscy? We already knew there would be delays and that it'd be very close, but specifically how is fraud being committed and by whom?

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 22:51 utc | 246

No, Joe Biden did not mysteriously gain 130,000 Michigan votes all at once

Zero Hedge as a source. Should have known.

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 22:59 utc | 247

I dunno if is one or 2 morons posting all these orangeutan talking points, wind ups & general dingbatteries then signing off with a simple first name, but I do know it is fucking boring wading through all that shit. It's all nonsense, I realise that orangeutan has told you otherwise but linking to a tweet that repeats unsourced and easily disproven tosh isn't proof of anything other than that you're spouting tosh.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Nov 4 2020 23:02 utc | 248

uncle tungsten | Nov 4 2020 20:23 utc | 204

Consequent to the 2000 putsch in Florida and then the "Help America Vote Act" that foisted black box voting on the nation I responded to a local ad to become a poll worker during elections. Two-fold purpose: at that time I still believed voting was important, I was still healthy and didn't mind the hard work that was not nearly compensated by the meager stipend we received. My ulterior purpose was to get close and personal with the Diebold machines purchased by the State of Ohio. I participated as a poll worker for a half-dozen election cycles, ending with the '06 mid-term.

The mechanical aspects of the Diebold machines which supposedly handled generating the sales receipt type paper trail proof was absolutely horrid: it was junk. As for the programmable electronic aspects of the machines, I was never in a position to discover any clear hard evidence of how they can be hacked. I'll say this though: the Diebold rep for our county was appointed to the county BOE, was an aggressive (and out-of-state) GOP operative, and when the days of testing the integrity of all the machines before the election, the results were only witnessed - behind closed doors - between the Diebold rep, and the co-directors of the BOE. (As I understood it, the test downloaded a list of "votes" to each machine, and then the tallies kept by each machine were checked against the downloaded entries. Sounds simple enough, but why did only a few people get to see the results, and why were they behind a closed and locked door?)

Should be noted that the sales receipt type record was done by thermal printer - hardly a method of permanent readable record.

I voted through mail-in ballot this year which was promoted by and encouraged by our Republican Gov. DeWine and Ohio's Republican administration. It was set up exactly as I imagined such a system should be set up with the use of bar codes to trace you in connection with your ballot all through the process. As it happened I hand-carried our (mine and my wife's - permitted by law) to the BOE and saw them open the outer envelopes, check the signatures, and log the ballots as being received. As soon as as I got home I went online to my local BOE website, and with a few clicks was able to see the acknowledgement there that our ballots had been received and would be counted. A simple paper ballot that was then scanned and in no danger of becoming unreadable at some point in the future. I showed my youngest son this process and verified that his mail-in had in fact been received by his BOE in another distant county of the state, and he did his completely by mail.

All that aside, after the '06 mid-term and blue dog epidemic I lost all faith in elections. The US electorate sent a clear unmistakable message to our elected government, and we were completely ignored. The debacle in Iraq continued apace, impeachment was "off the table," and Pelosi et al spit invectives at progressives and reformers. Ranked choice voting may indeed be preferable, and the EC is an anachronism that should be shit-canned, but I don't believe any of that would make a difference here in the USofA. The fate of the US is sealed, it can not and will not self correct; it can only double down on its mean and suicidal behavior. Sorry to be so negative, but nothing I have seen since 2000 gives me any hope in a better future.

re: West Point Idiots - upon entering basic training as an enlistee I was offered a free ride to West Point. Now, all these years later I reflect that I too could have been one of those idiots lying to the American people about how we are "winning" and how great our military is.

Posted by: vinnieoh | Nov 4 2020 23:08 utc | 249

Posted by: cal | Nov 4 2020 22:43 utc | 242

_K_C responded to your *assertions* correctly. Provide evidence or buzz off. And as I said before, anyone who thinks vote fraud is Democratic only is a moron.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 4 2020 23:15 utc | 250

@_K_C_ #246:

Please elaborate. What kind of theft is being committed in MI and WI? If it's unambiguous, please direct us to a source.

I guess people are referring to these two graphs. (Disclaimer: I have no idea where these graphs originate from, whether they have been tampered with, whether they show correct information, etc.)

Posted by: S | Nov 4 2020 23:17 utc | 251

AP finally showing some updates. Arizona called for Biden. Biden has 264 electoral votes vs Trump's 214 (which will likely grow if Trump wins a couple more states.) Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and North Carolina still in play. Biden leads in Nevada, the rest Trump is leading - but his lead is shrinking rapidly.

If Biden gets one more state, it's over for Trump.

Then the *real* fireworks start as Trump will go ballistic.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 4 2020 23:22 utc | 252

about 133# willie's comment to whom it may concern


[The Left(Democrats) have managed to sow chaos in our elections by subverting ...
....fair resolution to this orchestrated and subversive
nightmare.]

This is not from me,yours truly willie who in doubtful english likes to inform barflies on the subject of aggravations in France ,and who likes to discuss music every now and then with james.I was not going into the election thing at all,but flying over the thread I fell on my pseudo,most likely an american passer by who is not a regular reader himself,so I felt obliged to not be confused with this willie..Never mind keep on stressing everybody,we are harmless bystander-victims of american crazies either way.

Posted by: willie | Nov 4 2020 23:28 utc | 253

Posted by: S | Nov 4 2020 23:17 utc | 251

Yep. That was it. I posted a link to the Detroit Free Press's story on it right under the comment you replied to. There's an explanation provided that looks credible to me. Even if some "tracker" organization DID game the numbers for Biden (they likely didn't), that's not the official count anyway.

I also get a kick out of the right-wing Twitterverse. Here's Mark Levin:

Complaining about the media doing what the media always does on election night

This in particular made me laugh:

All night and this morning, the media are playing with the electoral map and their declarations of who won what states, and in virtually every case it assists the Biden campaign.

Couple reasons: 1) Is this the first election he's ever watched on the mainstream media? and 2) After all the polls had closed and mail in ballots sealed up and sent in, how does the media's late night manipulation of their projections "assist the Biden campaign? Tortured logic.

Back in 2000 there were some semi-legitimate criticisms of the media horse race coverage and early calls for various states, but in those cases it was east coast results being announced and predictions (mostly wrong) made while people in California were still voting. The idea from the right was that the media elites (that had spent 2 years destroying Gore and pumping up Bush) figured if they could make a Gore victory look like a landslide, they could dissuade potential Republican voters in the Western states from showing up.

But the converse strikes me as a more valid criticism. Namely, with California, Oregon, Washington and Arizona voters still having to stand in (often long) lines to vote, wouldn't calling it for Gore so early really be dissuading DEMOCRATS from bothering to go vote if they thought their votes weren't really needed?

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 23:29 utc | 254

Anyway, the MIC wins...

From an article by Rafael Poch, US´Qing Syndrome, commenting on last book by political scientist Kishore Mahbubani Has China Won?

If the last electoral campaign in the United States has made something clear, it is to confirm that that country does not have a strategy for the new world of the 21st century. The only clear recipe to prevent decline is war, commercial and technological, and the military threat with an increasingly nuclear diplomacy. Trump has divided his country on almost everything except his trade and technology war against China. This belligerence is something that is taken for granted in the presidential candidates who compete with each other to show who pampers the military and the military-industrial complex the most and who is more anti-Chinese, fleeing like the plague from any fickleness of laziness before the adversary. It is not just an ideological "sacred cow" emerging from the inertia of a century of world domination, but a structural defect.

Spending on weapons and wars is not something that in the United States is decided within the framework of a rational national strategy that assesses what weapons systems are needed for the current and specific geopolitical situation, says Mahbubani. “Guns are bought as a result of a complex system of lobbying by manufacturers who cleverly located their industries in every congressional constituency in America, thereby allowing politicians who want to keep jobs in their territories (and their own positions in Congress) are the ones who decide what weapons will be produced for the army”.

Advantages of the adversary

There is nothing in China like the military-industrial complex of the United States that structurally fosters militarism and imperialism with its powerful “lobbies” and think tanks. The mandarins of the United States are prisoners of a network that greatly complicates their adaptation to the new world. Its powerful and efficient propaganda apparatus (“information & entertainment”) presents the United States' two-headed, single-party political regime based on the money aristocracy as a democracy


Posted by: H.Schmatz | Nov 4 2020 23:31 utc | 255

About polls versus results. They were not the worst in the world. In the recent general elections in Bolivia, the winner Arce

scored 42.2% in the most favorable pre-election poll
scored 53.0% in the more favorable exit poll (the other, 52.2%)
gained 55.`% in the final vote count.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Nov 4 2020 23:49 utc | 256

This thread is a tour de force.

Comments from Irish-Canadian former Deputy PM, etc. of Canada, (not to be confused with Irish-American former VP of USA) Did I mention before that Manley was on the last plane to land in North America (Canada) on 9/11. He was arriving from Frankfurt.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada/video/u-s-results-make-a-big-difference-beyond-just-policy-canada-s-former-deputy-prime-minister~2069081

Posted by: Quasi Retired anonym | Nov 4 2020 23:54 utc | 257

Analysis by Juan Carlos Monedero and Pedro Brieger for En La Frontera states that the US electoral system was conceived so that keeping certain parts of the population banned from having right to vote. This was done to avoid the fresh liberated slaves could have one day a say in the government of the country and thus the ability to claim for their rights, this way, keeping the right to vote reserved for the rural areas where the population was mainly white, which today are not the most populated and are mainly conservative, racist, less literate, and host big energy corporations.

Along with telling about the difficulties to get oneself registered to be able to vote, a complicated process indeed, Brieger refers to the case of Washington DC, which, by its size and population, equivalent to two or three states together, could have a state range by itself, yet this is obstructed by the PTB due that the majority of population is black and that would incline the balance from the current status quo...

https://twitter.com/MonederoJC/status/1324078966857228289

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Nov 5 2020 0:00 utc | 258

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 4 2020 23:29 utc | 254

I now see the controversy over the 130,000 votes that were alleged to have been given to Biden. Apparently the election data company pushes out these graphs and charts to the media, who then post them as quickly as they can due to the horse race nonsense that dominates American political and election coverage. There appeared to be a massive gain for Biden from one period/%counted to the next and ZERO for Trump. The idea being that they accidentally tipped everyone off to fraud and then later tried to claim it was a typo that never should have been pushed/published in the first place. Their story sounds pretty believable and if there was really some sort of 130,000 vote tranche that was manufactured for Biden, I'm sure Trump's election observers would have raised a shit storm in MI. Instead we get the usual right-wing personalities and political social media operatives (I couldn't help but notice that the first guy to tweet it was the moron that runs the Republican Party out in my home state and county where I lived for 15 years) throwing up conspiracy after conspiracy as though it's totally impossible that Trump would ever lose in a state that he, himself, flipped from Obama.

Buckle up, America. The "fun" is just beginning. My final prediction and post on this matter is as follows:

Biden takes Nevada, Trump takes ALL the remaining swing states. This sets up a situation where it's a slim electoral margin for Biden and only requires Trump to flip one of the battleground states (I'm guessing WI) through the courts in order to "reverse" the outcome. The counts won't be finished until the end of this week in PA. In addition to attempting to get the counts stopped thru various means (brooks brothers riots, court challenges), they will also be filing suits against other states (I believe they have already said they intend to sue WI, but that the time period for when that can happen hasn't come yet) in the hope that they can catch a break including exposing examples of alleged fraud, more likely court decisions either stopping counts or mandating recounts. If they do successfully get WI to recount, other legal maneuvers will be made to throw out certain votes so they are not counted in the final tally.

IF the remaining states are called as I predict, it benefits Trump to drag this out as long as possible because it increases the chance of catching a break or exploiting a legal loophole or obscure state law to achieve their ends. But just as importantly, it gives his supporters and Republican operatives time to inundate the airwaves and social media with conspiracy and fraud allegations. The A lie has already made it's way around the world before the truth has put its shoes on principle.

Good night to the American barflies. Getting very late here. I hope all of you on the side of either one of these awful choices for President can find a way to get along and heal the divisions, but that doesn't seem very likely right now.

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 5 2020 0:01 utc | 259

BIDEN WON THE ELECTION

There is no, 'IF' it ends up that ...

TRUMP LOST

The MSM is just dragging this out to have something to say.

BIDEN WON => TRUMP LOST => Coronavirus 2 is real

Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and finally, acceptance

Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Nov 5 2020 0:05 utc | 260

Puzzled by all the shenanigans and general post election fuckery? Greg Palast spells out amerikan 'democracy' to Jimmy Dore.
Incidentally in the interview he refers to his own website www.gregpalast.com where Palast (a former statistician) has a book explaining it all which is downloadable for free or a small donation.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Nov 5 2020 0:09 utc | 261

A point on vote fraud. Graphs that show something happening in a *state8 are meaningless. You have to go down to the county level to determine vote fraud. You have to know the number of registered votes in each party and independents, and what the polls said as to how many would turn out and which side they would vote on, especially the independents. Then you look at the actual exit polls and the *final* vote counts. Any irregularities have to show up in this process - unless the conspirators are really good. And of course, you have to fool the voting booth watchers from both parties and (supposedly neutral) observers. This is not an easy process - especially to get enough fraudulent votes into the count to actually override the legitimate votes.

Waving a state-level graph - especially without the specific supporting data - is absolutely meaningless. This is the kind of stupidity one gets from morons with no ability to think things through logically.

I'm not saying there was no vote fraud in this election. I'm fairly confident there was - just on general principle of knowing human nature. But it was likely done by both sides in counties that are heavily one way or the other. Unless someone proves the number of fraudulent votes *and* whether they were enough to override the legitimate votes, it's conspiracy theory. And doing it before all the votes are counted in any given state is simply moronic.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 5 2020 0:22 utc | 262

Posted by: Debsisdead | Nov 5 2020 0:09 utc | 261

Yup. As I mentioned before, Palast is a real deal investigative journalist. He exposed the oil companies' plans for Iraq which were followed by George W based on Jim Baker's and George Sr.'s orders to W. And he's been tracking voter disenfranchisement for years. I'll have to go listen to that Dore interview.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 5 2020 0:24 utc | 263

FOX "news" going into full snowflake meltdown, doing their own "Russia/Russia" - Election Fraud Chant.

JoeG- So Sad :{ , snivel snivel. Republican tantrums are so endearing :) LoLoLo

Posted by: CitizenX | Nov 5 2020 0:25 utc | 264

"Communist Deep" hahahahaha
when did bloody billionaires become Marxists?

Posted by: Mathaus | Nov 5 2020 0:35 utc | 265

Vote fraud happens at state level by state politicians purging voter lists (Ga) sending out incorrect ballots (Ca) or intimidating potential voters by sending out threatening or false information about voting procedures (Wi).
And of course that doesn't include the scam guaranteed by SCOTUS in Florida 2000 where the State secretary of state can just decide to order a halt to counting. Several million votes every prez beauty contest never get counted.
Plus the old trick of only have one election station in areas that contain hundreds of thousands sometimes millions of poor people.
Dems purge black voters too, apparently because they are concerned about the chance of a 'black party' being formed.

Posted by: Debsaredead | Nov 5 2020 0:36 utc | 266

James
That article by Murray was very good but I give an honourable mention to his paragraph on the Jihadis.

"I pause to note that the terrorist in Vienna had attempted to go as a jihadist to Syria and fight against Assad. If he had not been prevented from doing that, he would have been financed by the Saudis, fed and clothed by the Turks, armed by the CIA, trained by the SAS and given air support by the Israelis. He might even have got to be a TV star posing in a White Helmet, or employment artfully placing chlorine bottles on beds for pictures by Bellingcat. Unfortunately, having been prevented from joining the western sponsored insurgency, he ended up killing Austrians instead of Syrians and now is a “terrorist”, whereas jihadist killers of Syrians are “heroes”. A strange world. The Manchester Arena bomber was of course physically brought in to the UK by the British military after fighting for “our side” in Libya. You do indeed reap what you sow."

Posted by: arby | Nov 5 2020 0:38 utc | 267

vinnieoh #249

Thank you for your post. I am with you on the diabolical fraud that is the Diebold machines and have been aware of their disgraceful product for many years. There can be no integrity or trust in any process or machine that is audited behind closed doors. It is simply a fraud and the practice is nothing other than a slap in the face to any decent person.

Your experience and expression of despair is why I contend that the USAi is in a pre-revolutionary condition. Greg Palast confirms all that you say and more and thankfully has been doing so for many years.

If the Demonazis do anything about 'reforming' the electoral system that should immediately ring alarms.

Glad to hear you passed through the West Point system with integrity intact. I am sure many did or found their way back to integrity. I never cease to be amazed at the all enveloping embrace of the military in US affairs both political and civil. THAT has to be broken.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 5 2020 0:42 utc | 268

Debsisdead #261

Thank you for the Palast link at Jimmy Dore. Thankfully we can still see and hear this man's good words. Go Palast and he wears a good hat.

MoA is heading for a record again.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 5 2020 0:52 utc | 269

_K_C_@196--

Just got around to reading your reply. Yes, JoeG is one of those US citizens I wrote about at Pepe Escobar's FB early this morning. I'm currently immersed in China-related research, and while looking for an independent link detailing the debate between Zhang and Fukuyama came across this blog post that's mostly about Fukuyama but also delves into Huntington. When Fukuyama came out with his End of History, I saw him as a charlatan and fraud, and shoved him aside in my mind as anyone to take seriously. But, after reading this blog post, I see where his ideas fit in with the overall attempt to control the US populace by further dividing us. Now I'm miffed because I'll now need to use some of my finite time to read his stuff when I'd rather use it to further my several other research directions. But as I admitted to myself long ago, there'll always be far more to discover and try to digest than there's time in a life to do so. Socrates dictum was The unexamined life is not worth living; too bad so few listen or are even told.

Posted by: karlof1 | Nov 5 2020 0:54 utc | 270

@ 267 arby.. yeah... that is part of this upside down world we are living in at present... there is no end in sight either.. cheers james

Posted by: james | Nov 5 2020 0:58 utc | 271

Was just looking at Instagram, looking at files of bicycle photos, another interest. Each page has a message at the bottom. Recently created hashtags will not display, many files will be abbreviated. As they attempt to control election information. Incorrect election information. That bicycle enthusiasts might pick up whilst viewing antique English bicycles.

This is how Joe Biden wins. We will simply be told millions of times that he did win. And all information that tends towards Trump did get votes in this district or that will be memory holed. The panopticon is here.

Posted by: oldhippie | Nov 5 2020 1:02 utc | 272

"I guess people are referring to these two graphs. (Disclaimer: I have no idea where these graphs originate from, whether they have been tampered with, whether they show correct information, etc.)"

-Posted by: S | Nov 4 2020 23:17 utc | 251

The sources printed(faintly) on the bottom of that that second (Wisconsin) are "FiveThirtyEight" and "ABC News"

This story shows that same Wisconsin graph with the 4am 100K Biden bump:

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/seven-milwaukee-wards-report-presidential-votes-registered-voters-state-voter-turnout-nearly-90-virtually-impossible/

The graph was sourced from a twitter post by a Derek Duck:

I mean LOOK at this graph for Wisconsin

I’ll zoom in just so you can see the part where Biden votes came out of NOWHERE pic.twitter.com/MPVxTWxjcZ

— Derek Duck (@duckdiver19) November 4, 2020

Interestingly Twitter has blocked Derek Duck's twitter post.

Twitter also blocked DC Corruption's post on same subject/same GP article:

DC Corruption
@CorruptionDC
This is literally 5+ standard deviations from the mean. That actually = statistically practically impossible https://twitter.com/nobbins2001/status/1324078983923658752
4:02 PM · Nov 4, 2020
4.5K
2K people are Tweeting about this

If Twitter is blocking it, tells me it is probably true, and hurts Biden...


Posted by: gm | Nov 5 2020 1:10 utc | 273

Posted by: gm | Nov 5 2020 1:10 utc | 273

Thanks for identifying the graph sources, but it changes nothing. The graphs are utterly meaningless, as I indicated above. Now if someone can produce the *data* for the graphs *and* the *source* of the data, there might be something to discuss. Otherwise it's just conspiracy theory.

As for Derek Duck, by definition votes do not "come out of nowhere". If he can't point to *where* they came from - and they *all* have to have *some* kind of identifying provenance or it would be obvious that they are fraudulent - he's just hand-waving.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 5 2020 1:21 utc | 274

Posted by: gm | Nov 5 2020 1:10 utc | 273 If Twitter is blocking it, tells me it is probably true, and hurts Biden...

Oh, and just because Twitter is blocking it doesn't mean it's true. Twitter might simply *think* it *might* be true and would hurt Biden. That says absolutely nothing about whether it *is* true - unless you think Twitter has some sort of direct connection to the source of the alleged fraudsters. Twitter can be censoring bad news for Biden whether the news is true or not.

Logic, folks. Evidence, folks.


Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 5 2020 1:23 utc | 275

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux FiveThirtyEight Nov. 4, 8:22 pm

There’s a new lawsuit from the Trump campaign in Chatham County, Georgia — but don’t get too worked up about it. The actual request is extremely narrow — the Trump campaign is claiming that the county is mixing late-arriving ballots with on-time ballots, and Trump’s lawyers are asking the court to make sure those late arrivals are separated. Like many of the other issues raised in Trump campaign lawsuits that have been filed over the past few days, it’s unclear how big a deal this is, but in all likelihood the answer is “not a big deal at all.” And this is a theme to underscore with all the voting-related litigation we’ve seen since yesterday, including the Trump campaign’s request for the courts to intervene once again in Pennsylvania’s ballot deadline. Trump built up the possibility of legal murkiness in this election over weeks and months, and his campaign is certainly following through with its promise of litigation, which is now getting media attention. But while it’s easy to file lawsuits, the campaign is having trouble pointing to actual (much less widespread) wrongdoing or irregularities. Meanwhile, on-time, valid ballots are still being counted. We’re waiting on the results, but they’re not looking great for Trump. And the “problems” that the Trump campaign is highlighting in its lawsuits so far either seem not to be problems at all, or are extremely unlikely to make a difference. It’s still possible that a court battle could prove decisive or important, but based on the cases that have been filed so far, that scenario is feeling more and more unlikely.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 5 2020 1:25 utc | 276

@ 261 debs... thanks for the link... worth watching..

Posted by: james | Nov 5 2020 1:33 utc | 277

There are 2 reasons why the polls were on average 2 points higher for Joe. One, polls always narrow the day of the election when some people get cold feet. Two, Trump supporters are liars like their cult leader and deliberately try to skew reality.

***********

By the end of this day, Biden is going to be singing this tune.:

https://youtu.be/QL3EZwSJAh0

It's also very possible that Trump is going is going to get a celestine SIGN tonight. Stay tuned!

Posted by: Circe | Nov 5 2020 1:49 utc | 278

@RSH: So can we agree that the source of that Wisconsin vote graph with the mysterious 4am 100K Biden vote bump is FiveThirtyEight a Dem-leaning polling web site run by Nate Silver and owned by ABC (Disney) News?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight

Posted by: gm | Nov 5 2020 1:50 utc | 279

yankistan having a full on color revolution.

"(Reuters) - An Australian bookmaker said on Thursday it has paid out A$23 million ($16.5 million) to people that had bet on Joe Biden becoming the next U.S. president though the official result is still to be determined"
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-australia/australian-bookmaker-pays-out-17-million-on-biden-victory-ahead-of-official-result-idUSKBN27L05L?il=0


Why would they be paying out before official results are in? Perception management? 17 million is chicken shit percentage of the billions yanks spend on crowning their new kings.
When Trump calls on the militias will be time for popcorn. Hopefully the yankistan arseholes will end up nuking themselves.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 5 2020 2:01 utc | 280

Posted by: gm | Nov 5 2020 1:50 utc | 279 a Dem-leaning polling web site run by Nate Silver and owned by ABC (Disney) News?

So what? We're not talking about polls. We're talking about results - on a graph with no provided source data and even much of a legend. I mean, seriously? What exactly is the point that the graph *proves*? All it shows is someone's notion of the results at a given time - with *no* context as to which places have reported, which have not reported, what was the breakdown by county, etc., etc.

It's literally meaningless. Don't bother with the ad hominem, it's irrelevant to the point.

ALL: Just watched the Jimmy Dore interview with Greg Palast. Everyone needs to watch it. Seriously. It will blow your mind. Compared to these stupid graphs, it's like a nuclear bomb compared to a match.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 5 2020 2:07 utc | 281

Nathaniel Rakich FiveThirtyEight Nov. 4, 9:04 pm

According to the Georgia secretary of state, there are now 122,535 absentee ballots left to be counted in Georgia, while Trump has just a 38,126-vote lead over Biden. At the rate Biden has been picking up votes, it’s very possible he’ll close that gap. However, we may have to wait a while for a projection. While Fulton County is expected to report all its absentees tonight, at least two counties will be taking more time: Chatham County (home of Savannah) will definitely not finish tonight, while Gwinnett County will begin “adjudicating” (essentially double-checking) ballots it has already reported tomorrow (some changes are expected). The county says this process will take until Saturday, but the secretary of state insists that all counting will be done by Friday.

Sarah Frostenson FiveThiryEight Nov. 4, 9:09 pm
What’s Left To Count

We’re slowly starting to boot up the live blog again in preparation for a big drop of votes in Arizona at 9 p.m. and then another one at 11:30 p.m. ET. (The outlook in Georgia is a little less clear — we were initially expecting most of the absentee ballots to be reported by 9 p.m., but the secretary of state told ABC News earlier today that it might take until Friday.)

But let’s look at Arizona. Biden currently leads here by 3.4 points, but there are around 600,000 ballots left to be counted statewide, according to ABC News. About 400,000 of those are in Maricopa County, 250,000 of which were cast this weekend. That’s notable because while mail ballots often favor Democrats, that’s not the case in Arizona, which has a long history of voting by mail. Trump has already eaten into Biden’s lead there in the last 24 hours, although two outlets, Fox News and the AP, have called the race for Biden (ABC News has not yet issued a projection).

Of course, it’s not just Arizona or Georgia where we’re waiting on a projection either. There are a number of outstanding presidential races, including states like Pennsylvania — where we could still be days away — and North Carolina — where it could be more than a week.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 5 2020 2:12 utc | 282

A Stolen Election?

I agree with PCR

Posted by: Perimetr | Nov 5 2020 2:14 utc | 283

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Nov 5 2020 2:01 utc | 280

It's over, attention will now shift to shoring up the credibility of the elections system:

US election: Republican allies turn on Donald Trump after fraud claims

Somewhere in here somebody is going to talk to Trump. He's lost fair and square. It's going to be eerily quiet here at first. But we'll get used to it.


Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 5 2020 2:18 utc | 284

@ Posted by: willie | Nov 4 2020 23:28 utc | 253

It was obvious to me that the post was not from you. Thanks for the confirmation.

Posted by: suzan | Nov 5 2020 2:21 utc | 285

About tunes to sing (Circe proposed one), I keep thinking about this one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8N7BSsU5oo
May be a great leader is being elected, but surely it does not look like that.

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Nov 5 2020 2:23 utc | 286

I can’t see how this election matters....there is one power and two sycophant parties. What’s interesting is the growing chorus that the empire is dieing, and this farce is only another reminder. Can’t come soon enuf for me ....i only hope i live long enuf to see the us thrown back into fortress usa.

Posted by: James joseph | Nov 5 2020 2:34 utc | 287

@286 Piotr Berman

As I wrote earlier...stay tuned. Someone else might get the last word.

Posted by: Circe | Nov 5 2020 2:36 utc | 288

And...theme music, please, maestros, as we re-arrange the chairs!

https://youtu.be/w6LiHXsBmmA?t=671

Posted by: powerandpeople | Nov 5 2020 2:43 utc | 289

Aaron Bycoffe FireThirtyEight Nov. 4, 9:10 pm

We just got a large batch of votes from Maricopa County, Arizona, favoring Trump, who is 2.8 points behind in the statewide vote there. The new Maricopa results went about 44,000 to Trump and 30,000 to Biden.

Geoffrey Skelley FiveThirtyEight Nov. 4, 9:16 pm

Prior to this latest report from Maricopa, Arizona’s secretary of state had said that about 600,000 votes remained uncounted statewide and about 420,000 were in Maricopa County (Phoenix) specifically. If Trump were to win around 59 percent of all of those outstanding votes, it would be just enough to put him over the top. However, we don’t really know just how the remaining votes will trend.

Kaleigh Rogers FiveThirtyEight Nov. 4, 9:21 pm

Earlier today, election officials in Pima County, Arizona, said there were between 26,000 and 34,000 early ballots left to count and the county will be updating daily as it makes its way through counting these and verifying an additional 18,300 provisional ballots, which can take longer than normal tabulation:

There are between 26,000 and 34,000 early ballots left to count in Pima County. Pima County uses an estimated range rather than estimated number for early ballots to allow for any discrepancies in the ballot total once verification and counting is completed. 1/4

— Official Pima County (@pimaarizona) November 4, 2020

Geoffrey Skelley FiveThiortyEight Nov. 4, 9:22 pm

Pima County is important because, while it doesn’t have nearly as many ballots as Maricopa County, it’s the second-biggest county in the state, and also is more Democratic-leaning than Maricopa. So far, Biden leads by about 5 points in Maricopa but has a 21-point lead in Pima, according to ABC News.

Dan Hopkins FiveThirtyEight Nov. 4, 9:24 pm

Where do things stand in Pennsylvania? As expected, Trump’s advantage has continued to shrink throughout the day as more votes are counted, including heavily Democratic mail ballots. It’s hard to sync up the different sources of data precisely, but when the Trump-Biden gap was around 300,000 votes, there were about 900,000 mail ballots left to be counted, and Biden has been winning well above 70 percent of the mail-in ballots. Now, the gap between the two candidates seems to have narrowed further to just under 200,000, and Philadelphia alone has more than 100,000 outstanding mail-in ballots to count. In general, across the counties that are almost entirely counted, Biden is improving on Clinton’s margin by 1.7 percentage points. But I suspect Biden won’t end up with as big a raw-vote lead in Philadelphia as Clinton had.


RSH Note: This is like my expected "deep cleaning" I have to get at the dentist next week - a slow grinding of teeth to get results in this election.

Meanwhile, Trump's lead in Georgia is almost erased - his lead is only .8%. If he loses Georgia, it's over (except for the fireworks as he goes ballistic.) But as mentioned above, we *won't* know the final results there until *Friday* and maybe *Saturday.*

OTOH, Arizona is back in play, apparently. Nate Silver is saying it probably was called too early by AP and others. So what happens if Trump gains Arizona and loses Georgia - he gains 11 EC and loses 16 - also a loss for him. He pretty much needs all of the swing states to win. Biden just needs one.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 5 2020 2:43 utc | 290

Can someone explain why all the excitement? Nothing is happening. Nothing.
Slightly more CIA and war-peddler support for the war party with the gangster boss clinically demented to the point of boasting on TV of successfully blackmailing his own puppet installed by a US-Zionist putsch. Slightly more bloodsucker support for the showman. It's a wash any way you slice it. Why isn't everybody in bed with a good book? I'm not only addressing the likes of Circe and Jimmy: where is the fun in watching this?

Posted by: Piero Colombo | Nov 5 2020 2:47 utc | 291

The whole system is based on fraud, why should this election be any different?

I'm just wondering who will be running our government now? Is it Biden, Harris, Clintons, Obamas, the Spooks or all the above? Biden cant have more than a year left in him.

Posted by: Turk 152 | Nov 5 2020 2:47 utc | 292

Posted by: gm | Nov 5 2020 1:10 utc | 273 and RSH:

I couldn't sleep so I decided to do some more looking. The original Tweet on the alleged discrepancy came from a Texas Republican Party area chairman. He later deleted it on his own from what I gather. 538 is a pollster site (aggregator). I don't know the provenance of that one nor when their graph entered into the news pipeline on this issue, but the original graph came from Decision Desk HQ and was published by AP, not 538.


The issue is covered in more in-depth HERE at the Detroit Free Press.

A since deleted tweet posted by Matt Mackowiak, a conservative commentator and chair of Texas' Travis County Republican Party, appears to show that during one results update in Michigan, Joe Biden received 100% of newly counted votes. Attached to the tweet were two election maps appearing to show election results from earlier in the count and one from later. Mackowiak said he took the screenshots early this morning. Mackowiak acknowledged the posts were inaccurate. He has since deleted the tweet, explaining, "I have now learned the MI update referenced was a typo in one county."

The first image shows the vote tally of over 4.2 million votes with an estimated 77.3% to 90.9% of votes in, and the other shows the vote tally of over 4.4 million votes counted with an estimated 79.8% to 93.8% in. The map shows Biden having accrued more than 138,000 additional votes with none of the vote totals for the other candidates changing. President Donald Trump retweeted the maps, and in a later tweet, he wrote, “They are working hard to make up 500,000 vote advantage in Pennsylvania disappear — ASAP. Likewise, Michigan and others!” There is no evidence to support the claim that election officials in Michigan are tampering with votes to reduce his margin.

The maps shared by Mackowiak appear to come from Decision Desk HQ, an election data company.

The data from Mackowiak's second map showing Biden receiving 100% of the newly counted votes was released at 5:04 a.m. by Decision Desk HQ which showed Biden with 2,130,695 votes at Trump with 2,200,902 votes. But that data was not correct. A tweet posted later by Decision Desk HQ at 5:43 a.m. brought both Trump and Biden's vote count down, with Trump at 2,217,540 votes and Biden at 2,019,899 votes. In a tweet this afternoon, Decision Desk HQ wrote, "This morning there was a clerical error in the Shiawassee, MI county presidential data." The company explained, "Once we identified the error, we cleared the erroneous data and updated it with the correct data as provided by officials. We stand by our data as reflected on results.decisiondeskhq.com."

An hour-by-hour update from Associated Press data shows that there was no point in time when Trump did not post an increase in votes.

So there never was any REAL 130,000 sudden vote jump for Biden and the whole controversy is based on a few Tweets. Either way, 538 wasn't initially involved nor was their graphic where this thing began.

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 5 2020 2:57 utc | 293

The DNC prints Biden marked ballots like Fed prints the green paper. it was $3 trillion Americans who voted for Joe.

Posted by: Kiza | Nov 5 2020 2:59 utc | 294

"Somewhere in here somebody is going to talk to Trump. He's lost fair and square. It's going to be eerily quiet here at first. But we'll get used to it."

-Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 5 2020 2:18 utc | 284

I don't think so. And sorry, this sounds like a gaslighting/expectations management effort.

Many powerful 'somebodies' have 'talked' (and worse) to Trump over the past four years, and that has not stopped him from rolling right on over them where he thought he was in the right.

I believe he anticipated the likelihood of this turn of events far in advance, especially after seeing all the dirty stuff from the Dem primaries and the 2018 mid-terms, and has made preparations to defeat this deep state color revolution coalition effort to steal the election. Just my opinion.

Posted by: gm | Nov 5 2020 3:20 utc | 295

Circe #288

As I wrote earlier...stay tuned. Someone else might get the last word.

I gather this is another of your astrological inferences. If so I trust that the 'someone else' is the goddess of damnation whispering something specific into Trump's ear. Failing that I hope it is Mitch McConnel firing his 9mm into Trump's ear.

Either way I won't mind in the least.

Music for USA

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 5 2020 3:23 utc | 296

Posted by: Perimetr | Nov 5 2020 2:14 utc | 283

I generally appreciate and agree with PCR on many issues, but the logic in that piece is pretty gnarly. This is where he lost me:

It really makes no sense for people in Michigan, who have severely suffered from the American Establishment’s offshoring of their manufacturing jobs to Asia, thereby destroying the economic wellbeing of people in Michigan, to prefer Biden, the Establishment’s candidate over Trump, their champion. I wondered if this was yet another example of dumbshit insouciant Americans being unable to act in their own interest. But I dismissed this thought and looked for other explanations.

What I found was astonishing. During the early hours of November 4 in both Wisconsin and Michigan there was a sudden vertical upward adjustment to Democrat votes, and every one of the approximately 150,000 newly found votes was for Biden. This sudden ballot dump accounts for the lost of Trump’s lead in Michigan and Wisconsin: http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=61890

It is possible that shifts of vote counters in the two states finished their shifts and went home, and that when the new shifts arrived they found that Biden had jumped even or ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. This would be plausible except that all the vertical shift in votes were for Biden. Not a single vote in the suddenly changed situation was for Trump. How likely is this?

So he's basing the entire piece on a typo (and apparently I was not 100% correct and 538 DID generate a graphic that was created using DecisionDeskHQ mistaken numbers). For a discussion of that, see all the back and forth between RSH and gm as well as my posts about it in this thread. An election data aggregator that feeds the AP (and apparently 538 in some fashion) its numbers screwed up and the erroneous graphic was Tweeted out by a Republican in Texas who later deleted the Tweet. Guess 538 picked up the wrong version and created their own graphic.

Mackowiak acknowledged the posts were inaccurate. He has since deleted the tweet, explaining, "I have now learned the MI update referenced was a typo in one county."

It was big nothing burger from the very beginning and PCR is starting from a completely incorrect premise. (and now I see that others also used the 538 version). Also, buried in PCR's source link is the exact same deleted Tweet that I've been talking about. Someone named Derek Duck started re-tweeting it (the 538 version) AFTER the first guy deleted his (which I think was based on the AP's version but not sure) and apparently insisted on doing so despite the fact that it had been debunked (his Twitter account is now suspended - big surprise). BUT the link to the article that PCR based his own on is still there, and it has been [UPDATED] to include the quoted text I just pasted. So I wonder why PCR hasn't [UPDATED] his own story yet.....

The other thing about that article is his seeming endorsement of Trump as someone who is actually going to bring manufacturing jobs back. He's no more likely to than Biden is.

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 5 2020 3:26 utc | 297

Posted by: gm | Nov 5 2020 3:20 utc | 295

Well, you might be right, but I don't think so, and I don't share that view unless I'm pretty sure. When I see pubbies talking about counting all the sacred votes I know something is up. When they throw Trump under the bus, they expect him to stay there. But there may well be lots of noise and fighting before it settles down, and I'm wrong all the time. Not trying to ruin your day. Like the other fellow up there I don't see much differnce. Best part of this is all the "pros" got humiliated, well most of them anyway. Joe is going to be happy he got the most votes anybody ever got, he beat Obama, and he beat Bernie, and he beat Trump. He's going to be insufferable

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 5 2020 3:31 utc | 298

300 election don't count comments not one comment about the future of America? All I see here is who shall be king of the mountain. What is it that our leader (whoever it is, should do)?

1. Reduce military spending by 50% per year for each of the next four years.
2. Close 50% of the military bases each year, over each of the next four years
3. Standardize national examinations for high school and undergraduate degrees pass the examination
receive the BS or BA.. degree.. eliminate any all accreditation requirements, people can study wherever
whenever and how ever they wish. Tutorials not bureaucratic institutions will prepare the students for
the examinations.
4. eliminate copyright and patent laws so as to reduce the wealth gap and so as to return America to
from monopolism to capitalism.
5. fix the constitution so the governed have a powerful, meaningful say in not just in how uses the
government to govern, but also so the governed have a powerful say in what it is those who are elected
to the government must accomplish why they are in the employee of our elected government.
6. Find a way to get the USA activities subject to human rights courts.
7. Paint all of the white people black in order to eliminate race as condition of life.

A list of goals and objectives should be put forth on what the elected are supposed to accomplish in the next four years. In that way, it will not matter who is the President, what will matter is did he or she accomplish what it was they were elected to do?

Posted by: snake | Nov 5 2020 3:32 utc | 299

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 5 2020 2:57 utc | 293

Thanks. Clears that up. Trump claimed a 500,000 vote lead in Pennsylvania - that has now dropped to less than 200,000. Nate Silver says Biden is on the right pace to close the gap. Trump's lead in Georgia is now down to .6% - but only 2% left to report.

Geoffrey Skelley FiveThirtyEight Nov. 4, 10:20 pm

As we wait for more returns from, well, anywhere, I took a look at the Pennsylvania Department of State website’s tracker of outstanding mail ballots to see where things stand in that pivotal state. Turns out there are about 763,000 total mail ballots left to count in the state, which is … a lot. At the moment, Trump leads Biden by about 187,000 votes in Pennsylvania, which translates to 3 percentage points. Now, I don’t know how many of those 763,000 votes might not be counted for various reasons, but if we just round down to 750,000 outstanding ballots, Biden would have to win 62 percent or so to have a threadbare lead. But the challenge for Trump is that because mail ballots tilt Democratic, Biden has been winning recent new tranches of mail ballots by margins far larger than that. It’s true that some of these outstanding votes are from Republican areas of the state, but a quarter of them come from the Philadelphia area (including 120,000 from Philadelphia proper), where those votes will be very Democratic. There are also about 85,000 mail ballots left to count from Democratic-leaning Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) and Lehigh County (Allentown). Point is, there may well be enough for Biden to overcome Trump’s current lead.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 5 2020 3:33 utc | 300

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