Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 01, 2020

The MoA Week In Review - Open Thread 2020-87

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

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Other issues:

Venezuela:

By then the Defense Department had also been sharing with Venezuelans a secret plan to foment insurgencies called Operation X Zone.

It all casts doubts on the narrative claiming that Goudreau operated as a freelancer in a vacuum in one of the most closely watched areas of the world.

Covid-19:

Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is common and occurs early after illness onset. Persons should self-isolate immediately at the onset of COVID-like symptoms, at the time of testing as a result of a high risk exposure, or at time of a positive test result, whichever comes first. All household members, including the index case, should wear masks within shared spaces in the household.

Covid-19 in German language:

France bad, headchoppers good?

Use as open thread ...

Posted by b on November 1, 2020 at 15:07 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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This is well said from(https://tessa.substack.com/p/great-reset-dummies):

'Thus, the practical aim of the Great Reset is to fundamentally restructure the world’s economy and geopolitical relations based on two assumptions: one, that every element of nature and every life form is a part of the global inventory (managed by the allegedly benevolent state, which, in turn, is owned by several suddenly benevolent wealthy people, via technology)—and two, that all inventory needs to be strictly accounted for: be registered in a central database, be readable by a scanner and easily ID’ed, and be managed by AI, using the latest “science.” The goal is to count and then efficiently manage and control all resources, including people, on an unprecedented scale, with unprecedented digital anxiety and precision—all while the masters keep indulging, enjoying vast patches of conserved nature, free of unnecessary sovereign peasants and their unpredictability. The king’s world feels far more predictable and relaxed when the chaos of human subjectivity is contained for good.'


Referring to the last thread, the difference between a Trump win and a Biden win is this:

- Biden is a puppet of the 'Globalist Elites'. If he wins the 'Great Reset' will go ahead at full speed.

- Trump is the 'Globalist Elites' enemy #1. If he wins the 'Great Reset' will be stopped in its tracks, and the window of opportunity may be lost for good.

Posted by: dh-mtl | Nov 1 2020 15:18 utc | 1

A false flag or several in Georgia to destroy the oil pipelines makes sense now from the point of view of several different sides. The two that stand out:

· For the US to stoke the fire (things are too tepid for them), this includes getting Turkey deeper into trouble and having NATO enter as "reasonable peacekeepers" which includes putting Turkey in its place and forcing them to obey anything they're told. The Russians might happily accept this kind of foolish US involvement and encourage it, perhaps publicly too.

· For Turkey to play victim (how they love it), blame Armenians, and then declare war, call for NATO solidarity, chastise France & everyone else, and wave "islam" in everyone's face because to them "islam" is just a red rag to wave in the face of easily manipulated idiots.

· Anyone who considers any or both of the above two conflicting aims worth it.

· Anyone who considers much more muddied waters in the region a benefit opening up even more possibilities. I don't even have to name them.

I'm sure most people can come up with plenty more motivations and variations, it's a very big free-for-all and doesn't have to involve state actors.

Will be a little bit surprising to me if it doesn't happen one way or the other.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Nov 1 2020 15:57 utc | 2

dh-mtl @ 1 said:


- Trump is the 'Globalist Elites' enemy #1. If he wins the 'Great Reset' will be stopped in its tracks, and the window of opportunity may be lost for good.

Perhaps you meant to say Trump is his own worst enemy, a common failing of narcissists.

Posted by: donten | Nov 1 2020 16:05 utc | 3

Chris martenson has been doing a great job of digging deep for answers around covid;

The mainstream narrative about Covid-19, in the West, is this:

It’s a quite deadly and novel disease
There are no effective treatments
Sadly, no double-blind placebo controlled trials exist to support some of the wild claims out there about various off-patent, cheap and widely available supplements and drugs
Health authorities care about saving lives
They care so much, in fact, that along with politicians they’ve decided to entirely shut down economies
There’s a huge second wave rampaging across the US and Europe and there’s nothing we can do to limit it except shut down businesses and people’s ability to travel and gather
You need to fear this virus and its associated disease
All we can do is wait for a vaccine
The alternative narrative, one that I’ve uncovered after 9 months of almost daily research and reporting, is this:

It’s not an especially dangerous disease and it’s certainly not novel
There is a huge assortment of very effective, cheap and widely-available preventatives and treatments including (but not limited to)
Vitamin D
Ivermectin
Hydroxychloroquine
Zinc
Selenium
Famotidine (Pepcid)
Melatonin
Use of a combination of these mostly OTC supplements could reasonably be expected to drop the severity of illness and the already low mortality rate by 90% or (probably) more
Western health authorities have shown either zero interest in the results of studies mainly conducted in poorer nations on these combination therapies or…
They have actively run studies designed to fail so that these cheap, effective therapies could be dismissed or…
Set up proper studies but which started late, have immensely long study periods and most likely won’t be done before a vaccine is hastily rushed through development.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/we-are-pawns-in-a-bigger-game-than-we-realize/

Posted by: jef | Nov 1 2020 16:15 utc | 4

Restating my Prediction

Trump wins in a landslide - including winning the popular vote - to become a type of 'Glorious Leader'.

In the 2016 election farce he was positioned as the beleaguered populist hero and after he won he began the task of reshaping USA/Empire to meet the challenge from Russia & China.

Among Trump's initiatives was a last-ditch effort to convince Russia to abandon China and join with the West/Empire. But he got nothing from Putin in the Helsinki Summit.

Now Trump, with the help of the Deep States political operatives in the duopoly and media, is being propelled into 'Glorious Leader' with the authority and legitmacy to take the country to war.

And war is certainly on the horizon. USA/Empire have:

  • threatened military action against Venezuela and Iran;
  • initiated color-revolutions in Hong Kong and Belarus (neither of which succeeded);
  • used Navalny's supposed poisoning to further disrupt Russia-EU relations;

  • sold advanced weapons to Taiwan - an act which may cross Chinese 'red lines';

  • increased the pressure on China, including blaming China for spreading SARS-COV-2 and vowing that "China will pay" for that.
  • continued to occupy Syria and to employ their Salafist proxy army there and in other places - the latest being Azerbaijan;

<> <> <> <> <>

The basis for Trump's elevation to 'Glorious Leader' is illusory. It is kayfabe and/or arranged behind-the-scenes. But his #winning is nevertheless fodder for propaganda. Did Trump really 1) beat Covid-19, 2) defeat the Deep State, 3) bring peace to the Middle-East, and 4) create the best economy ever (which was destroyed by the "China virus"? No.

  1. There's reason to believe that Trump never had Covid-19 - Trump clearly attempted to game the situation from the start - he used Walter Reed Hospital and staff as props, kept tight control of all info about his condition, and we later learned that the Regeneron CEO is a golfing buddy of Trump's;
  2. Trump's war with the supposedly anti-Trump Deep State is kayfabe - example: Trump appointed close associates of prominent NEVER TRUMP-ers to key positions in his Administration (VP Pence is John McCain's friend; Atty General Wm Barr is close to the Bushes and Robert Mueller; CIA Dir. Gina Haspel is an acolyte of John Brennan who publicly supported her nomination);

  3. Peace in the Middle-East stems from USA Cold War arm-twisting, not Trump genius;
  4. USA's weak economy was propped up by Fed's QE for years and the 'sugar high' from Trump's tax cuts was wearing off by January 2020.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 1 2020 16:17 utc | 5

On Europe:

It seems the main European nations are going to be put on their knees by the COVID-19. The list of countries is considerable, so I won't post a list of links here. The virus' most prized scalp here is Boris Johnson's - one of the original pandemic deniers. Like I said before: the European Dream is dead (within or without the EU).

--//--

Bidenomics: boom or bust?

--//--

Berlin’s $7 Billion Airport Finally Opens in the Depths of a Crisis

The delays more than doubled the cost of the airport (from a little bit above EUR 3 billion to over EUR 7 billion). Among the causes of the eight-year delay were automatic doors that lacked electricity and too short escalators.

P.S.: did ex-Berlin mayor Klaus Wowereit really described Berlin as “poor, but sexy.”? That's a new low, even by postmodern (Late Capitalism), "end of History" standards.

--//--

Three Gorges Project gets 'completion acceptance'

The dam Taiwanese propaganda was telling us "would rupture" since the early 2010s not only didn't rupture, but is now officially finished (it was already working and giving China electricity since 2009).

The whole project, by far the greatest hydroelectric dam in the world, begun in December 1994 and cost 200 billion yuan (about $28.2 billion) - or four Berlin Brandenburg Airports.

P.S.: there's a video of the dam working, if you're into that "China fakes everything!" squad.

--//--

China must forge own path however US election goes: Global Times editorial

Translation: the only place the Chinese live rent free is within the Trumpsters' heads.

--//--

Putin submits bill on formation of Federation Council to State Duma

Can some Russian commenter here clarify this?

I don't know what to think of this bill: is it a pathetic attempt to revive czarist institutions? Is it an attempt to re-Sovietize? Is it Putin waving the white flag, preparing an escape route for himself after he retires?

--//--

Death toll from earthquake in western Turkey rises to 58 - Erdogan

Looks like the best scientific explanation for this is that God (Allah, Yahweh) doesn't like Turkey.

Posted by: vk | Nov 1 2020 16:22 utc | 6

EXCLUSIVE: National security nightmare of Hunter Biden's abandoned laptop containing phone numbers for the Clintons, Secret Service officers and most of the Obama cabinet plus his sex and drug addictions - all secured by the password Hunter02 - Daily Mail

I think my favourite one is Hunter's credit card being rejected for insufficient funds by some webcam porn site. The son of Captain Credit Cards Joe 'Mr Delaware' Biden... oh the irony!

Posted by: Et Tu | Nov 1 2020 16:27 utc | 7

Posted by: vk | Nov 1 2020 16:22 utc | 6

RE Federation Council: Putin seems to be trying to prevent "undue foreign political influence" by various strategems, in a globalized world. I don't suppose I have to explain why. Put some institutional weight behind long-term policy, institutional memory, etc. Interesting to watch how it plays out.

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 1 2020 16:41 utc | 8

jef @Nov1 16:15 #4

You fail to address the question of W H Y we are told lies or misrepresentation about the disease, and Western governments (especially USA) have failed while other governments (Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, New Zealand, etc.) have been much more effective.

I have proposed that:

  • Trump allowed the virus to spread so that he could declare a national emergency that allowed him to bailout Wall Street (which was facing tens of billions of dollars in bad loans) and Boeing;
  • Trump/US Deep State find it desirable to blame China - more deaths = more outrage;

  • healthcare for older people is very expensive - early deaths save the government a lot of money (Trump's military build-up has been very costly);

  • Poor, mostly people of color are the other category of people most likely to have bad outcomes from SARS-COV-2 - they are just not important in USA;
  • funneling money to Big Pharma.

FYI My explanation is very different that the proposition set forth by the astro-turfed Libertarian mob: that governments want to control us by making us wear masks (referred to derogatorily as "muzzles" or "diapers") and destroying our ability to earn a living.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 1 2020 16:42 utc | 9


jef @ 4

Martenson has the bedside manner of a toxicologist, which he is. Off-putting for many, but he brings rigor to his critique.

To that list add Vitamin C. Ordinary amounts, preferably from diet, are quite sufficient until sick. Then just a lot will be used by your body. Mercifully Vit C is being used more in hospitals for covid treatment. Doctors who would get a lot of pushback over prescribing ivermectin or HCQ can prescribe C and no one cares. Except the patient. In large quantities C is an effective anti-inflammatory and helpful in many ways with respiratory disease.

Thanks for putting Vitamin D right at top of list. Hundreds of studies and all in the memory hole. Best way to get D is sunshine. Barflies do not get enough sunshine. In summer, even in northern latitudes, skin exposed to sun produces large amounts of D, much larger than most would attempt with supplementation. In winter dietary D pretty much means eating fish daily or twice daily or swallowing cod liver oil. Except for the Japanese, D deficiency is prevalent. Supplements are very cheap. D is stored in body for two to three months. Big stocks are created in summer, for those who ever go outside, then it is December and flu season hits. Telling everyone to hide in the closet was about the worst public health measure possible and that is what has happened. Either for personal protection or to prevent spread of this virus, D is worth taking.

Posted by: oldhippie | Nov 1 2020 16:51 utc | 10

jef @ 4. Trump, an important figure, was given many of the ‘usual’ meds, though practically all sites put in top place Big-Pharma-Hype products. Then go on to mention Zinc, Vit. D. Ex.

8 drugs Trump has been given for his COVID-19. Hospital Review.

https://bit.ly/381f8ba

MSM, Time, list ‘experimental’ in top place, but does give others further down, incl. Zinc and Vit. D.

https://bit.ly/35SaOIt

Article also give ‘prices’ - showing it is v. expensive to be treated for COV19 !

Remdesivir has no effect (imho - see several recent med. research.) Regeneron Idk (takes time to figure out.)

Posted by: Noirette | Nov 1 2020 17:15 utc | 11

Oldhippie @ 10, thanks for promoting Vitamin C and D. I remember reading an article from New Zealand back when the virus was only just being addressed, about a farmer there who had an overwhelming reaction to pesticides and was not responding to regular hospital treatments. A massive C protocol saved his life.

Also, November is a great time for garden cleanup, mulch application, compost making. Don't send any such garden wastes to the dump; your soil needs it all! Even dead branches can be trimmed and used to keep leaves in place. And meanwhile you are absorbing that good D.

There has also been a promotion at nakedcapitalism.com for foods containing zinc. Kale is a good one, and it grows very well in containers on freezing windowsills - the dwarf kind is best as leaves can be taken for use in omelets.

The announcements on 'resets' are the dems choosing to offer the inticement of cosying up to Russia to ensure they win --- and if they do, what a nasty bit of business that is. All of a sudden, friends again. I do think we are in for duplicitous leadership if so, and shame on them for putting us through the last four years.

Posted by: juliania | Nov 1 2020 17:29 utc | 12

If Trump has not clearly won by the end of polling on Tuesday, then throw out the obviously manipulated results and let the Supreme Court name him President-for-Life with the right to choose his successor.

Posted by: Malchik Ralf | Nov 1 2020 17:42 utc | 13

Jackrabbit@9 - Your first two reasons are most likely a factor but I would not include Trump in the calculation as he is not capable of that level of planning. Your third reason end of life care is how the system wrings out every last penny of the elderly, gov pays very little of that.Your las two reasons are not wrong.

IMO the why is this;

Terrain Theory - nutrition, environment, healthy lifestyle, strong immune system, add it all together and it is maybe a couple billion dollars for the economy.

Germ Theory - healthcare industry, medical devices, hospitals, pharma, insurance, equals hundreds of billions and in fact Terrain Theory directly threatens those hundreds of billions so it is roundly dismissed at every turn.

Posted by: jef | Nov 1 2020 17:53 utc | 14

Covid-19 is a dangerous disease and I take precautions to protect myself. However, the public depiction of the disease in the media and the actions being taken by most governments cannot but raise some very serious questions.

For example, you see everywhere how many "new covid cases" are being detected. The problem is manifold.

1) in reality the number they are citing is the number of positives in PCR test - IT IS NOT THE NUMBER OF CASES. A "case" in epidemiological sense is when medical intervention is needed or when a patient dies. If "case = infection" then one wouldn't need two epidemiological parameters IFR (infection fatality rate) and CFR (infection fatality rate). Furthermore, roughly 30% of the world population harbor the tuberculosis bacterium. Yet, I have never heard that the global TB case is several billions. Only a very small fraction of those harboring the bacterium will get the disease called TB, when it will become a case. So, why is COVID-19 is being treated differently in the media as well as by authorities?

2) The PCR test DOES NOT diagnose a disease called Covid-19. It simply identifies fragments of RNA of the virus called SARS-COv2 in a person indicating that HE MAY have had the virus in his body. This is very different than saying that he has a disease called Covid-19.

3) PCR tests are neither validated, nor standardized - therefore, there are too many false positives.

4) PCR test IS NOT APPROVED AS A DIAGNOSTIC TEST. If you combine the first four bullet points then how can you not think that there is something wrong in the whole picture?

5) Most vaccines have taken 10 years to be developed (I believe that there is a single case where it was developed in 5 years). And after 30 decades we still do not have a vaccine for AIDS virus. So, when governments are on record having said from the beginning that we'll get back to normal only after a vaccine will be available - then you cannot but question their motive.

Posted by: Nathan Mulcahy | Nov 1 2020 18:14 utc | 15

@ Post 16

Under (5) I meant to say "after 3 decades"

Posted by: Nathan Mulcahy | Nov 1 2020 18:16 utc | 16

@ SRB #2
A false flag or several in Georgia to destroy the oil pipelines makes sense now from the point of view of several different sides.
--- Georgia is between Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan and Russia . here
Aug 1, 2019 -- from Stars & Stripes
US troops help train Georgian and Ukrainian forces amid tension with nearby Russia
More than 3,300 soldiers from 14 nations began the largest annual exercise in the former Soviet republic of Georgia this week, aimed at strengthening security in the tense Black Sea region.
During the two-week [live-fire] Agile Spirit war games, soldiers will face and use modern military equipment and hybrid warfare tactics, such as cyberwarfare, to defend against an attack by a “near-peer” adversary, Brig. Gen. Nikoloz Janjgava, deputy chief of staff of the Georgian armed forces, told Stars and Stripes on Thursday. “We are trying not to use the ‘R’ word during the exercise,” Janjgava said.
Agile Spirit gives Georgia and Ukraine more experience working with NATO allies, Janjgava said. Both countries are on track to become part of the alliance in the near future, the Georgian Ministry of Defense said in a statement.
About 20% of Georgia’s internationally recognized territory is under Russian occupation, including Abkhazia on the Black Sea and South Ossetia, which is about 50 miles away from the Vaziani Training Area, where [biannual] Agile Spirit is taking place. . .here

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 1 2020 18:19 utc | 17

@ dt #15
The biggest difference between Trump and Biden is Biden will also re-establish "normalized" relations with China by ending the trade war.
The problem is that the US and China are on a collision course over Taiwan, and the profit-making warmongers hold sway over the traders.

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 1 2020 18:23 utc | 18

donkeytale @Nov1 17:59 #15

The bosses have reassigned me.

I've always enjoyed your humor and writing donkeytale even as I disagreed with your POV.

You're irrepressible wit will be missed as we dodge black helicopters and navigate thru the Zombie Apocalypse.

PS I'm half-expecting that you will show up with some other moniker.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 1 2020 18:26 utc | 19

One of the resident dembots gets (temporarily) retired as the DNC starts to wind up its its astroturfing for the election season? Quel dommage!

Posted by: William Gruff | Nov 1 2020 18:38 utc | 20

Posted by: Don Bacon | Nov 1 2020 18:39 utc | 21

A second round of lockdowns returns to Europe due to a resurgence of COVID-19

https://www.google.co.za/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-lockdowns-return-across-europe-heres-what-you-need-to-know-12117280

Posted by: Down South | Nov 1 2020 18:51 utc | 22

thanks b.... 2020 the year of covid... the year was taken up every which way with covid.. the El Pais link you shared was interesting..

usa election on tuesday and jackrabbit is on record saying trump wins...okay.... see what happens... and dk is gone, lol... i will believe that when i see it..

Posted by: james | Nov 1 2020 19:09 utc | 23

Posted by: vk | Nov 1 2020 16:22 utc | 6

Always a pleasure to read your informed comments.
A quick look at the Federation Council Law, probably is the third option you post, a sign that retirement is unavoidable and therefore Vlad is preparing it with a lifelong post as head of the Federation Council and surrounded by a group of close supporters since the presidential quota is to be raised to thirty members, seven of them for life.

Nothing new really, here in Spain the ex presidents can apply to be members of the State Council if they do not have private employment which all of them do, Aznar working for Murdoch, González for Slim in México and a dual Spanish Colombian citizen. If there is a redeeming feature in the proposed Russian law is that the members of the Federation Council must be Russian citizens with no double nationality or foreign residency.

Vlad is hinting retirement, but with the pan handle secured in his hands, just in case… that’s my quick impression.

Concerning Covid, I really hope the Mediterranean diet will protect my health, lots of vitamin C and D from natural sources, oranges, lemons, today a freshly caught Melva which is a greasier variety of tuna fish, and for sure lots of sunshine. In spite of that the second wave is going on strong, it is a class virus, the main spreaders have been the agricultural workers, poverty is more dangerous than vitamin deficiencies.

Posted by: Paco | Nov 1 2020 19:16 utc | 24

Jackrabbit #5

And this is equally a factor either one to win -they represent nice corporations.

Do watch the embedded video.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 1 2020 19:49 utc | 25

@jef | Nov 1 2020 16:15 utc | 4

Yes, indeed. And what does that tell us about what is really going on? That is the scary part.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 1 2020 19:49 utc | 26

maybe we should listen to jackrabbit...

my sister married in US some years ago. in 2016 I urged her NOT to vote for Clinton. It's not that I'm into politics, nor did I had / have a horse in that race, just follow the news and have my own opinion. I just disliked her. "Sorry, we're a democrat house" she said, "we're with Her'.

well, today I asked my mom (who visited her together with my dad some months ago) did they vote there early or by mail or will they vote on Nov 3. She said no, but my dad jumped in the discussion and said that her husband was going Trump. Whaaaaat?! I said, they're democrats. Well, said my father, he told me himself that he had always voted democrat, but this year was going to vote for Trump.

Posted by: albagen | Nov 1 2020 20:22 utc | 27

B deserves credit for allowing posting without censorship, especially on the heated Covid debate. There really are not too many places left for a non-conformist to go to. This is still one site that respects free speech.

I agree with what some others are sensing: that Trump may be the only hope to end the pandemic insanity and still have a free society. Granted he does flip flop occasionally. After all, he is a gemini. Yet he's still the only western leader - outside of Sweden - who hasn't kowtowed to the Davos puppet masters. Sure he goes along with their wishes often, however he is always the next issue away from going rogue. That must drive them nuts! Especially when everyone else does what they're told all the time.

I do worry about what he might do regarding Iran, when he isn't handcuffed by worrying about reelection. Nevertheless we must take things one issue at a time and the only issue that matters these days is Covid 19 and the insanity of most governments' behavior. The only light I see at the end of the tunnel is a Trump victory, followed by his ending lockdowns in America. That will put tremendous pressure on the power tripping Nazis in every other western country. Thus, being north of the border, it matters a great deal to me that Trump wins. It is the only hope I see for ending this craziness. Even then, we're still in for a dark winter lockdown. That's still better than a Democrat victory with endless lockdowns and mask wearing. The issue then won't be about saving our free society. It will be about adjusting to a permanent and ever growing authoritarian state.

Posted by: EoinW | Nov 1 2020 20:27 utc | 29

Like the petrodollars,WTO better known as globalization, was formed in 1995 after the fall of Eastern blocks ,to dominate and control the world trade in US fiat currency specially when China with her cheap skilled labor was to become major world manufacturers of goods. Basically like oil America agreed not to impose tariff on goods they consumed if you trade and exported on their fiat currency which costed US nothing to produce. Obviously unlike oil trade this globalization of trade in US dollar could not work, since unlike oil trade America couldn’t politically dominated and control the good manufacturing countries, like it could, with small oil producing countries. The period of free trade in goods and energy is coming to an end, therefore US needs to lower her standards of living, or to go to major wars with other resources hungry powers to continue colonizing the third world resources and labor. Either way the end result will be the sam as for, not so Great Britain, ottomans, Spanish, Persian empires, the only obvious difference shorter empire.

Kooshy

Posted by: Kooshy | Nov 1 2020 20:46 utc | 30

EoinW says:

The only light I see at the end of the tunnel is a Trump victory, followed by his ending lockdowns in America. That will put tremendous pressure on the power tripping Nazis in every other western country

Yes dude, though it's hypothetical, that's pretty much the way I see it too, in a nutshell. this dehumanizing ends now, or it's absolutely curtains.

Posted by: john | Nov 1 2020 20:54 utc | 31

Let’s see. A candidate is behind in the polls. He deliberately and repeatedly denounces the elections as rigged. He calls on fascist militias to stand by for a post-election crisis. Yes, you’re so right b., it has all the earmarks of globalist-Soros-Zionist-DNC-NED color revolution. I hope to meet all your readers massed at Maidan Square.

Posted by: Tio Marko | Nov 1 2020 20:57 utc | 32

EoinW #30

Trump may well be a Gemini and that might explain/excuse many of his behaviours. Like you I have adopted the rationale that 'we must take one issue at a time'.

My first issue to take on is the speedy demise of USAi empire and all of its oligarchs. Followed by sequestration of their wealth and major investment in publicly owned health and education infrastructure.

The next issue I would take on would be a major public financed public banking system kicked off with taxation of all the private banking and finance companies in the USA.

I am sure that will do more good for the USA than a Trump or even a Koch presidency.

On the coronavirus currently being brilliantly mushroomed in the USA - keep at it. While the USA is being rotted from within their hapless citizens are banned from traveling throughout the sane parts of the world. Good. That means that most of Asia and the Pacific, EU and Africa are relieved from predatory foreigners.

Our free society in the rest of the world has been saved by a virus originated in the USA and spreading very nicely thanks to Trump and the Kochs and the Bidens and the whole absurd lack of civil society.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 1 2020 20:59 utc | 33

Tio Marko #33

"I hope to meet all your readers massed at Maidan Square."

Thank you Tio but I might not take up your invitation to play by their rules. Ukraine would have turned out much different had the Maidan crowd and government taken to the western province and settled the nazis there. Maidan square was a Soros/ US embassy project to establish an image, then a shooting gallery to escalate the conflict and fracture confidence in public order.

There are better ways to bring about change that don't involve playing by their rules.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 1 2020 21:08 utc | 34

#5 Jackrabbit

Your take that the battle between Trump and the Dems is fake (kayfabe) looks like last year when you said the "deep state" would choose Tulsi as VP for Biden because the Dem elite attack on Tulsi is also kayfabe fakeness. Lol. No, they dislike Tulsi. The MSM and a lot of the Alt Media were instructed to attack Tulsi, how is it not obvious that they dislike her?

The deep state is not a single minded hierarchical organization in the sense of being ruled over by one group, nor does it control both parties resulting in fights between them being fake. The deep state is comprised of lots of different influences. Some politicians and people in the deep state are devoted to making money above all else, others to religious convictions, others to ego and power, others to political ideology, and others to doing the right thing, etc. The GOP is closer to the Catholic Church and Evangelical Christian power structure and on the foreign policy they are close to the Saudis and the Likud party in Israel who do not like the Dems. While the Dems are closer to the Anglosphere and the European oligarchy who do not like the GOP. The culture war is real and epitomizes a real fight between rival elites.

That doesn't mean that what we see in the world in general is not controlled by the same power structure, it is all controlled on one level, but the battle between American elites is not fake.

Posted by: Kali | Nov 1 2020 21:12 utc | 35

Thank you Don Bacon :)

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Nov 1 2020 21:39 utc | 36

Jackrabbit,

I don't think it's possible that Trump will win in a landslide. I think it will be a similar outcome to 2016 where Biden wins the popular vote due to California, New York and the usual Democrat stronghold states, but Trump either take the Electoral College right away, or through the courts - as Bush did vs. Al Gore in 2000, but on steroids and with major ramifications to society at large during the time period while the election is being contested and probably after, plaguing Trump's second term with more and more street level violence by his supporters and the opposing BLM-Antifa types.

As to the larger points you were making, I don't necessarily think that any of those things couldn't be accomplished with/by Joe Biden or Kamala Harris (Biden is just bidin' his time and it's clear to see) in the White House, but you have to consider that no matter who wins, most of that will come down to who takes control of the House and Senate. If the Democrats do, they will throw a wrench into everything Trump tries to accomplish, likely end the filibuster rule and make Trump's second term a true lame duck.

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 1 2020 21:40 utc | 37

fyi

b, you may want to file this one
All the so-called social media platforms have become near totally taken over by the intelligence agencies and their allies, so I guess they themselves are propaganda networks, eh? The Empire can't tolerate the least bit of 'election interference' now can it


https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/01/media/scott-atlas-russian-media/index.html

Dr. Scott Atlas, White House Coronavirus Task Force adviser, apologizes for interview with Russian propaganda network


Dr. Scott Atlas, an adviser on the White House Coronavirus Task Force, apologized after appearing in an interview with Russian state broadcaster RT, just days before Election Day. In his apology, Atlas claimed he was unaware RT was a registered foreign agent.

....The Kremlin uses RT to spread English-language propaganda to American audiences, and was part of Russia's election meddling in 2016, according to a 2017 report from the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Twitter labeled a video from the Russian-state controlled broadcaster RT as election misinformation on Thursday. YouTube videos posted by RT carry the disclaimer: "RT is funded in whole or in part by the Russian government.".....

Posted by: michaelj72 | Nov 1 2020 21:41 utc | 38

@michaelj72 | Nov 1 2020 21:41 utc | 39

"RT is funded in whole or in part by the Russian government.".....

And the BBC is funded by the British government... and NrK is funded by the Norwegian government ... and CNN is funded by ... who?

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 1 2020 21:50 utc | 39

@ michaelj72 | Nov 1 2020 21:41 utc | 39.. at least rt is upfront about ii.. compare that to all the usa media outlets, including the ones selectively censuring what they do or don't like... none of them are claiming just who they are, who owns them, and how much influence the cia-nsa has on them... that should really concern you... they may as well be called foreign too for the fact they don't represent you or the ordinary american on the street.. in fact, they don't give a rats ass about you of the well being of you... they are as self interested as can be...

Posted by: james | Nov 1 2020 21:57 utc | 40

The banks and another excellent write up at Wall Street on Parade.

Again Ferdinand Pecora harking back to the 1930's as discussed in the past weeks commentaries:-

Wilmarth’s writing is so insightful and profound in its analysis of the similarities between the banks of the late 1920s and today that it feels like the ghost of Ferdinand Pecora might have been whispering in Wilmarth’s ear. Pecora was a former prosecutor from New York who was chosen to preside over much of the early 1930s Senate Banking hearings and investigations of the corrupt Wall Street structure that led to the 1929 crash and Great Depression.

Three banking names that played significant roles in the crash of 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression were National City Bank, JP Morgan, and Chase National Bank. National City Bank was the precursor to today’s Citigroup, the bank that would have collapsed in 2008 except for the largest taxpayer and Federal Reserve bailout in global banking history. JPMorgan and Chase combined in 2000 to create today’s JPMorgan Chase.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 1 2020 21:59 utc | 41

Nathan Mulcahy @ 16:

You may like to unpick the arguments stating that PCR tests are designed to detect the active SARS-CoV-2 virus at this link.

I understand the Sputnik V vaccine developed by the Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology in Moscow is based on at least 15 years of research on finding a vaccine for the original SARS virus.

Posted by: Jen | Nov 1 2020 22:08 utc | 42

james @Nov1 19:09 #24

jackrabbit is on record saying trump wins...okay.... see what happens... and dk is gone

Important to note that I'm not simply saying that "Trump wins" but that Trump wins in a landslide.

And I'm not saying that Trump wins because I'm Trump supporter but because I'm an Empire cynic. A Trump landslide give Trump authority and legitimacy that the US Deep State would find useful in their campaign against Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, etc.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 1 2020 22:11 utc | 43

@ jr 44.. as kali @ 36 noted, i think you got it wrong on the tulsi gabbard ticket.... i appreciate your confidence and forthrightness! i am not sure how your grand sweeping statements are going to be taken if you are wrong on this!

my own take is the campaign against russia, china and etc etc - continues on until the time usa ceases to exist.. it doesn't matter who gets in power on this as i see it..

Posted by: james | Nov 1 2020 22:17 utc | 44

RIP, I've read many interesting reports from Mr. Fisk, sorry to see him go:

Veteran journalist and author Robert Fisk dies aged 74

In Dublin, of a stroke.

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 1 2020 22:19 utc | 45

Kali @Nov1 21:12 #36

Your take that the battle between Trump and the Dems is fake (kayfabe) looks like last year when you said the "deep state" would choose Tulsi as VP for Biden because the Dem elite attack on Tulsi is also kayfabe fakeness... how is it not obvious that they dislike her?

My October 2019 prediction of a Biden-Gabbard ticket was half wrong.

It appears to me that Tulsi now picks up the Sanders mantle ... as the next sheepdog? We shall see.

=
The deep state is not a single minded hierarchical organization ...

Well, there are competing interests among what is referred to generically as "the elites". But my definition of the "the Deep State" is the powerful people at the top if the food chain where military/intelligence interests dominate with the help of finance/tech/media/political assets. At that level, the group-think is stark as one isn't accepted without passing ideological litmus tests.

=
While the Dems are closer to the Anglosphere and the European oligarchy who do not like the GOP. The culture war is real and epitomizes a real fight between rival elites.... the battle between American elites is not fake.

It is real at the lower levels. But IMO strings are pulled by the upper levels to keep people divided.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 1 2020 22:36 utc | 46

@Posted by: Jen | Nov 1 2020 22:08 utc | 43

Related the Sputnik V vaccine, it seems that Western "partners" are decided to avoid that any EU country, or citizen, achieve this vaccine. Hungary, who showed interest i nachieving it has been already warned by the European Comission...

In an increasing context of authoritarianism in the West, and proved disregard for citizens´ security by oblying us to be vaccinated with the AstraZeneca vaccine which rises deep doubts after their failed essays, the Russian should facilitate a way for anyone wanting to be vaccinated with their vaccine to get it, through smuggling if necessary ( as was the case for many goods during Franco´s dictatorship in Spain...)

Why the EU could be interesting in oblying us accepting any vaccine, for that matter?

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Nov 1 2020 22:37 utc | 47

Regarding the sad news of the death of Robert Fisk, see Bemildred #46 I recall that pre internet and before the likes of MOA blogs, reading Robert Fisk's articles in the Independent newspaper gave a fresh outlook on a puzzling region.
The opening chapters of his book Pity The Nation, give a good overview of the dynamics at play and set the context for events in the civil war of Lebanon. It still is a good read even after all these years.
I dont know if the days of investigative journalists are over or whether someone of the calibre of Robert Fisk emerges in the future, I will miss his first hand accounts

Posted by: Medina | Nov 1 2020 22:57 utc | 48

james @Nov1 22:17 #45

as kali @ 36 noted, i think you got it wrong on the tulsi gabbard ticket

As I wrote in my reply to kali, I think Tulsi is an important figure that we will see again possibly as the next 'sheepdog' because Sanders is not done.

=
i am not sure how your grand sweeping statements are going to be taken if you are wrong on this!

Yeah. It's a big call. It will be a test of my understanding of the state of play.

=
... it doesn't matter who gets in power on this as i see it..

I agree. It's usually Coke vs. Pepsi.

But Democats failures as well as media hype of Trump's outlandish words and actions leads me to believe that Trump is being positioned as a larger-than-life figure. Something that goes well beyond merely winning a second term. The benefits to the Deep State of a BIG WIN for MAGA! Trump are difficult to ignore.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 1 2020 23:02 utc | 49

Correction @Nov1 23:02 #50: Sanders is not done => Sanders is done.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 1 2020 23:04 utc | 50

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 1 2020 16:17 utc | 5

See my last post to you in the previous thread. Based on H.Schmatz's post at 134 in that thread, your conspiracy theory seems speculative at best. A Trump win by a landslide is not going to happen *if* those facts are correct.

What *I* predict based on Schmatz's post and what I'm seeing on the Internet in general and what I believe about Trump is: a close election which will be contested by Trump until hell freezes over, precipitating a Constitutional crisis and massive civil unrest.

Well, we'll see, won't we? Are you planning to admit you were wrong when your prediction fails spectacularly? I am if mine does. If Trump loses by a landslide or a close election, and concedes gracefully, then I'll admit I was wrong. If Trump wins by a landslide, I'll agree that your theory has *merit* - which, basically, I already do - but not necessarily that it is *correct*. As I said in my previous post to you, *without evidence* even in a Trump win your theory remains just that - a theory.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 1 2020 23:23 utc | 51

United States Records Its Worst Week Yet for Virus Cases


The recent surge in cases has not yet brought a similar surge in reported deaths, which can lag cases by up to several weeks. But already deaths are increasing in about half of states. In the past month, about a third of U.S. counties hit a daily record of more deaths than any other time during the pandemic.

So much for the "the pandemic is over" bullshit some people have said here.

Europe struggling with 2nd surge of COVID-19 case, and it may be worse than the 1st
The continent now accounts for 46% of global coronavirus cases.


In September, fresh concerns were raised as schools and universities accounted for almost a third of new coronavirus cases, according to Public Health France.

But now, in late October, the virus is also spreading fast among the elderly. The number of infections among those older than 65 is now six times as high as in September, and there are five times as many hospitalizations, according to Public Health France.

Proving once again that the young transmit it to the old, making hash of the "protect old people" bullshit some people have said here.

Taiwan just went 200 days without a locally transmitted Covid-19 case. Here's how they did it


Taiwan's landmark achievement comes in a week when France and Germany are enacting new lockdowns and the United States identified a record 88,000-plus cases in a day. The state of Florida, which has a similar population size to Taiwan, with approximately 21 million people, identified 4,188 cases on Wednesday alone....

Authorities activated the island's Central Epidemic Command Center, which was set up in the wake of SARS, to coordinate between different ministries. The government also ramped up face mask and protective equipment production to make sure there would be a steady supply of PPE.
The government also invested in mass testing and quick and effective contact tracing.

Former Taiwanese Vice President Chen Chien-jen, who is an epidemiologist by training, said lockdowns are not ideal. Chen also said that the type of mass-testing schemes undertaken in mainland China, where millions of people are screened when a handful of cases are detected, are also unnecessary.
"Very careful contact tracing, and very stringent quarantines of close contacts are the best way to contain Covid-19," he said.

Which is exactly what the US should have done - and did not do and is still not doing - which is why we had to do a lockdown (such as it was). The lockdown failed because 1) it was late, 2) it was weak, and 3) it was relaxed too soon, and 4) it was not accompanied by tracing and isolating. Contrary to what some morons here would have you believe, the lockdown is not the issue. It's the lack of the other measures that is the issue.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 1 2020 23:39 utc | 52

It makes me nauseous just thinking about who might be chosen for a Biden administration.
There will be no hope for reform within the Democratic Party, ever, with a 2020 win.
A win will be the formal announcement of the death of "the left" as the ideology that has traditionally represented the interests of the people. The credibility of "the left" has been eroding with each regime change war the U.S. has been initiating and participating in, with NATO, since the war on Yugoslavia, but particularly in the Middle East and Libya. There has not been a reckoning. Moral transgressions and cowardice, greed and inertia have in fact been rewarded, and institutionalised. Eichman's plea a badge of honour and the whistleblower blown away. The neocons, those influential Jewish, X-Trotskyite political chameleons pushed those wars, and soft sold them through their many corporate media connections to produce "left wing" journalism which manipulated concern for cruel dictators, for persecuted ethnic minorities, refugees, weapons of mass destruction (the latest toxic version is chemical weapons) and the unavailability of certain kinds of human rights, in nations which were experiencing wars of "bomb them back to the stone age" aggression and psychopathic proxy terror arranged by these very same neocons.
"The left" signalled their virtue by believing the war propaganda, and have not sufficiently grasped the gravity of the sham perpetrated on their minds by this array of war criminals. The derangement by Donald syndrome has also proven to be a most emphatic signal of virtue with "the left", a commandment of wokeness. It is also most apparent that the deplorables, aka the rednecks, can never be included in a census of the left- oh that is just way beyond the pale! Very hard to imagine a large group of people who are so denigrated, and not just within the US. Even the bourgeois left has become elitist, and the elitist as in Marxist left has paradoxically no time for people, let alone the common ones. Vk has left us in no doubt.
Glen Greenwald is at his peak in his Tucker Carlson interview, talking of infiltration of "the left" by the agencies. This is compelling journalism because these truths are dangerous. If there is a deep state, then it is the Dems, they've got it covered and the Atlanticists are their allies. It fits in with Giraldi's latest prognostications, and what would be a counterrevolution and not a revolution should "the left" decide to make the push. By left he means Dems and their corporate sponsored affiliates, partisan elements of the spy agencies and big tech. (I think of Mark2 and his misspelt slogans straight from the Gene Sharpe handbook and wonder if earnest Mark2 is a typical lefty cadre, and muse over his enthusiasm for the gutless Jeremy Corbyn, whom I'm sure is a very nice chap personally, but look at the Labour Party now. Mark2, have you heard of the two forms of fascism, fascism and anti fascism?). Jimmy Dore continues to be heroic when faced with unpleasant truths. Keep being mad Jimmy, and just don't stand for it anymore!
Some of us are grateful for these individuals (and thanks to b for his meta commentary) because they are publically enacting a kind of meaculpa, and they have premonitions and we are being warned. There is grace in that. There still are still some good people who can speak publically.
I used to be left politically, but got disillusioned some time ago. Not knowing what progressivism is leading to, and not trusting its practitioners, I find conservatism to be the more reasonable and tolerant position for these times.

Posted by: Australian lady | Nov 1 2020 23:39 utc | 53

Jackrabbit wrote:

The benefits to the Deep State of a BIG WIN for MAGA! Trump are difficult to ignore.
_______________________________________________

That statement rings true.
I personally don't think it will be a landslide but I won't be surprised if that is how it goes.

It is also valuable to TPTB to keeps the populace split right down the middle on issues that don't impact TPTB.

Posted by: jinn | Nov 1 2020 23:47 utc | 54

Covid-19 is a dangerous disease and I take precautions to protect myself. However, the public depiction of the disease in the media and the actions being taken by most governments cannot but raise some very serious questions.

Posted by: Nathan Mulcahy | Nov 1 2020 18:14 utc | 16

THIS! Thank you for all your post Nathan! I was just about contributing some information that ties in precisely with your concern:
COVID-19: Council adopts a recommendation to coordinate measures affecting free movement (13-10-2020)

Based on this data, the ECDC should publish a weekly map of EU member states, broken down by regions, to support member states in their decision-making. Areas should be marked in the following colours:
  • green if the 14-day notification rate is lower than 25 and the test positivity rate below 4%
  • orange if the 14-day notification rate is lower than 50 but the test positivity rate is 4% or higher or, if the 14-day notification rate is between 25 and150 and the test positivity rate is below 4%
  • red if the 14-day notification rate is 50 or higher and the test positivity rate is 4% or higher or if the 14-day notification rate is higher than 150
  • grey if there is insufficient information or if the testing rate is lower than 300

You will notice how the measures to be taken by individual countries are absolutely (as in 100%) dependent on the worst metric possible according to the demonstrated performance of rtPCR tests. We are being recommended to use the wrong metric! None of us wishes any of our health systems to collapse, however their occupancy objectively varies with the cumulative individual immune response of the population NOT with the precariously measured transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 via rtPCR tests. Remember that the only reason we are worried about virus transmissibility is because of eventual severe developments of the disease in a fraction of the population and a possible breakdown of health systems as a consequence.

The relevant failure of rtPCR testing is its inability to estimate accurately the viral load (let's not put in question the assumption that viral load is the most important criteria for a severe development of C-19, while also leaving aside aggravating comorbidities). rtPCR testing, under the current state of knowledge, is the equivalent of measuring a patient's temperature with a thermometer but no doctor knows the average body temperature, and its natural healthy interval, nor would the thermometer provide a number on a scale, merely reporting that a patient has something other than "0". This would constitute a USELESS thermometer.

From the same recommendation as above, quote:


Free movement restrictions

Member states should not restrict the free movement of persons travelling to or from green areas. [LOL - great opening, they know full well under these criteria there will be barely any in the next months]

If considering whether to apply restrictions, they should respect the differences in the epidemiological situation between orange and red areas and act in a proportionate manner. They should also take into account the epidemiological situation in their own territory.

Member states should in principle not refuse entry to persons travelling from other member states. Those member states that consider it necessary to introduce restrictions could require persons travelling from non-green areas to:


  • undergo quarantine

  • undergo a test after arrival

Member states may offer the option of replacing this test with a test carried out before arrival.

Member states could also require persons entering their territory to submit passenger locator forms. A common European passenger locator form should be developed for possible common use.

"Test, test, test" remember? The above simply becomes arbitrary according to the criteria defined. This is not policy based on solid science! Such arbitrary policies usually serve unstated purposes (I'll refrain here to expand on those) while throwing some false pretext to the masses in order to seek their consent, exploiting their limited ability to validate the pretext as legitimate science.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So then... what could be a valid metric that allows us to prevent "eventual severe developments of the disease and a possible breakdown of health systems"? This is the question we should be asking! Myself, I would be satisfied, in substitution of rtPCR testing, with the use of new Hospitalizations, ICU and even Deaths as much better metrics, since these are true fractions of the disease development against any population and even allow to calibrate for its health system performance, much less vulnerable to duplications and false positive accounting.

rtPCR testing is absolutely absurd for the purposes it is being used (ie. country wide government response policy), instead of being limited to clinical diagnostic tool of the individual suspect of some respiratory disease to be used by a qualified practitioner, and, at best, a screening tool to get a handle on local outbreaks (schools, workplaces, residences, etc).

Hanging on this fallacy lies the destruction of most western economies and an ominous verge into the police state, neither are overstatements given what we have seen so far.

Posted by: Vasco da Gama | Nov 1 2020 23:49 utc | 55

@ Posted by: Jen | Nov 1 2020 22:08 utc | 43

Thanks for the link, Jen. But it’s not that a PCR test cannot detect a SARS-cov2 virus. The problem is that there is no standardized and validated PCR test for detecting SARS-Cov2 virus. I believe in Germany alone there are 200+ variations of the test currently being used.

My concerns about the remaining four points remain.

Posted by: Nathan Mulcahy | Nov 1 2020 23:51 utc | 56

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 1 2020 23:39 utc | 53

There were reports a few months ago that Europe was getting COVID-19 under control and was reopening what happened?

Posted by: Quiet Rebel | Nov 2 2020 0:00 utc | 57

USA: a nation divided between the rednecks... and the rainbow-unicorn rednecks?

U.S. identity politics and the anti-China campaign

The rest of the world must now choose their fate: straight away racial holocaust or postmodern holocaust. Thus spoke the Empire.

--//--

Chinagate:

How a fake report exposes the dishonesty of U.S.' China narratives

Republicans and Democrats secretly love each other. When one innovates, the other one is simply late to the party.

Posted by: vk | Nov 2 2020 0:01 utc | 58

@ Posted by: Vasco da Gama | Nov 1 2020 23:49 utc | 56

Thanks for adding additional meat to my argument, including the issue with “viral load”, which together with the state of the immune system of the host will decide whether or not an infected person will get sick. PCR can be extremely sensitive but that’s only part of the picture.

And as I have mentioned in my response to Jen I am yet to find good answers to my remaining the 4 points in my first post (#16)

Posted by: Nathan Mulcahy | Nov 2 2020 0:02 utc | 59

Richard Steven Hack @Nov1 23:39 #53

I answered you on the previous thread ("What Would ...").

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 2 2020 0:03 utc | 60

Posted by: Quiet Rebel | Nov 2 2020 0:00 utc | 58 There were reports a few months ago that Europe was getting COVID-19 under control and was reopening what happened?

Presumably they reopened. If you haven't got your shit together, reopening simply means another wave. Plus of course we're going into fall - and a second wave was always expected.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 2 2020 0:17 utc | 61

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 2 2020 0:01 utc | 207 Yet that doesn't obviate the utility of the theories.

It does when they're used to make a very specific prediction. Which, as I say above, we'll see when it happens.

"And the article he cites points out the "facts" in 2016 were inaccurate."

Well, as *I* said, *if* the facts he cites are accurate. I'm not motivated to go double-check them. But that article made a compelling case against Trump being able to win - let alone a landslide.

"Theories need to be validated. That is what I'm doing by making this prediction."

And as I said, we'll see. But even if Trump wins, it *still* doesn't *prove* your theory. It merely makes it more credible. I don't say it's *not* a *plausible* theory - I'm saying it's not proven enough to be making very specific predictions and absolute statements about it.

"I'm not saying just that "Trump is a 'shoe-in'" but that Trump will TROUNCE Biden."

What the hell is the difference? Win is win. Landslide is better than a close contest. You're predicting a landslide. I'm predicting either a landslide for Biden or a close win for Biden. By landslide, I mean something like Biden wins by ten percent or more. By close I mean he wins by something under 5%, maybe even 2%. Everything else is just a win.

"My theory isn't just about who wins but about the goals and motivations of the Deep State that is behind Trump."

And that's the part that a Trump will *still* won't *prove*.

"If I'm right and Trump wins big, then those goals and motivations are perhaps a little more visible to those who are not as cynical."

That might be. If you're referring to the electorate, however, I doubt it. If you're referring to us barflies, maybe.

"If I stayed silent prior to the election and tried to make claims about the Deep State based on Trump's "unforeseen" victory then no one would give a damn."

Probably right.

"It's a big call with big implications if I'm right."

Yup. But again, even if Trump wins, it merely bolsters your theory's credibility. It doesn't prove it - because one can create alternative theories that might be just as plausible.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 2 2020 0:29 utc | 62

Jim Rickards - remember him? Calling for a Trump win because Republican new voter registrations are outnumbering Democrat new voter reg 2 to 1. The typical ratio is Dem 2 or 3 to 1 vs. Republican. He interprets this as the Republican ground game via canvassers being so much stronger - unsurprising given the "lockdown" views of the mainstream Democrats.
He then cites the minority vote: black women. They voted 99% for HRC in 2016 - it looks like they will vote 90% for Biden (and 10% for Trump). Rickards says this translates to a 0.6% swing in the overall vote - which is huge since the margins are 0.2%.
Rickards also notes that the new registered voters don't show up in the polls because the polls use existing voter databases, and that the conservative anti=poll bias means 1000 new registered Republican voters means 10,000 or more actual new Republicans voting.
Lastly he cites the 56% "are you better off" poll recently. He notes that Obama, Bush etc were winning with sub-50% responses (46%, 47% etc).
He notes that small businesses are half of GDP: nail salon and what not.
Lots more that will "trigger" a lot of people.
Jim Rickards interview on Triggernometry

Posted by: c1ue | Nov 2 2020 0:38 utc | 63

The consent obtained from the masses in Barcelona
Someone is asking if you feel the same

Personally I am not giving my consent, and my feeling is, as the time goes by, increasingly no one will understand.

Posted by: Vasco da Gama | Nov 2 2020 0:59 utc | 64

Tio Marko @ 33

Let’s see. A candidate is behind in the polls. He deliberately and repeatedly denounces the elections as rigged. He calls on fascist militias to stand by for a post-election crisis. Yes, you’re so right b., it has all the earmarks of globalist-Soros-Zionist-DNC-NED color revolution. I hope to meet all your readers massed at Maidan Square.

All the post election violence is expected from the Anti-Trumpers not the Pro-Trumpers. The threats have been made. I do not recall any threats from the Pro-Trumpers to tear up cities. The "fascist militias" will not be doing anything because 50% of them are a combination of government agents and paid informers.

Elections have always been rigged to a degree by political machines in the US. Kennedy-Nixon came down to a political machine in Illinois, LBJ's rise to power was built on switching ballot boxes, We saw what happened in Florida in 2001 when it came down to a state run by the candidates brother, The pro slavery Democrats were busted with mail in ballot theft to deny Lincoln a second term.

The MSM tells you it never happens and it is rare but it always happens and it will happen in this election.


Posted by: circumspect | Nov 2 2020 1:35 utc | 65

by: Vasco da Gama @ 56 . what could be a valid metric that allows us to prevent "eventual severe developments of the disease and a possible breakdown of health systems"?

A fellow named Murdo announced that Venezuela Institute for Scientific Research a photohad discovered an extract of fruits, particularly apple peals could be modified to prevent any of the coronavirus access to a human cell. reported at https.rt.com/news/54545-maduro-drug-coronavirus-who/ in his words the modified Ursolic Acid molecules are 100% effective to prevent infection and riral replication. Ursolic generates symplasts in natural spermatopic clones.. and is often used in Phytonic Chemistry<=there are many labs working on correlating plant bioproducts with pathway interceptors in human pathology. . Preventing infection, rather that trying to coax the immune system in fixing an infection after the human cells have been infected is crazy. All along i have said needed is not to treat the disease, but instead to deny the infecting agent in its route to infection.
Rt reports the research has been submitted to WHO..
also others have isolated neuropilin-1 Corona as a nasal neural secretion which catalyzes (is an infection agonist) the Corona Virus infection, it provides a sort of hook (like the HIV stuff) to assist the initial engagement of virus S protein with ACE-2 and other S receptors that protrude from the human cell surface into the intra cellular space.
Image a life saver or chewing gum that you chew or dissolve in your mouth to prevent invading viral infectors, Muduro"s molecule is labeled TR-10..

Posted by: snake | Nov 2 2020 2:12 utc | 66

Other considerations that come to mind when considering the possible election outcome:

1) In 2016, it seems an unexpected number of people who didn't vote before decided to vote because Clinton was simply unacceptable given her husband already was President, i.e., they voted for "someone new" - which was Trump. Today, I suspect the shoe is on the other foot. After four years of this asshole, I suspect a *lot* of people want him gone, even if they don't think Biden is worth a hoot.

2) The military voted for Trump in 2016 because of his (alleged) "no new wars" promise. It's unclear whether that remains the case today - even though Trump hasn't actually started a new war (yet).

3) Gun owners voted against Clinton in 2016 and they will vote for Trump again in this one. That almost goes without saying.

4) Speculation about new voter registrations is just that - speculation. Allegedly, most of the new voters are from the young and minorities - most of whom are not favorable to Trump. From an article in The Atlantic:


The nature of the population eligible to vote is evolving in a way that should indeed help Democrats. McDonald estimates that the number of eligible voters increases by about 5 million each year, or about 20 million from one presidential election to the next. That increase predominantly flows from two sources: young people who turn 18 and immigrants who become citizens. Since people of color are now approaching a majority of the under-18 population—and also constitute most immigrants—McDonald and other experts believe it’s likely that minorities represent a majority of the people who have become eligible to vote since 2016.

The generational contrast in the eligible voting pool is also stark. States of Change, a nonpartisan project studying shifts in the electorate, projects that Millennials (born, according to the organization’s definition, from 1981 to 2000) will constitute 34.2 percent of eligible voters next year. Post-Millennials (born after 2000) will make up another 3.4 percent. That means those two groups combined will virtually equal the share of eligible voters composed of Baby Boomers (28.4 percent) and the Silent and Greatest Generations (another 9.4 percent).

These shifts have enormous implications because of the generational gulf in attitudes toward Trump and the parties more broadly. His approval rating has consistently lagged among the more racially diverse, socially tolerant younger generations. Though Trump and the GOP have shown some signs of weakness recently among seniors, he has generally polled much better among voters older than 50, in part because a much larger share of Americans in that cohort are white.

“The group of voters that is going to increase at the fastest rate [in 2020] is Millennials,” says Josh Schwerin, the communications director of Priorities USA, a leading Democratic super PAC that is already organizing in swing states for next year. “Donald Trump is at a horrible standing with them and doing nothing to help himself.”

5) "Are you better off" polls are hand-waving. Specific issue polling is likely more accurate.

6) Given the figures that indicate Trump is trailing by five to eleven percent or more except in close states, it doesn't look good for Trump. But see below.

7) Allegedly, Biden is way ahead in electoral votes - over 2 to 1. This is a serious problem for Trump, if true.

8) In the top 21 closest states, Biden leads in most of them, although his lead is narrow in half of them, and Trump leads in six of them

9) The question remains: Can the belief that this election is "important" lead to more votes coming out for Trump than more coming out for Biden? Assuming that a certain percentage of Trump supporters are no longer happy with his performance (white seniors allegedly don't like his pandemic performance), is it possible that any new Republican voters who support Trump can override those no longer happy with his performance *and* also the Democratic vote?

10) Along with that, the overall turnout for early and mail-in voters is alleged to be 82 million so far, much higher than 2016. How many of those will be Trump supporters? If a majority aren't, he will need Republican voters to turn out in record numbers at in-person polling stations.

11) The number of undecided voters is much lower than 2016, so it's not clear how much a swing either way would necessarily mean a win for either candidate.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 2 2020 2:13 utc | 67

Posted by: circumspect | Nov 2 2020 1:35 utc | 66 All the post election violence is expected from the Anti-Trumpers not the Pro-Trumpers.

That's what the Pro-Trumpers say. The Anti-Trumpers say the exact opposite. The problem is that the violence will occur anyway.

"The "fascist militias" will not be doing anything because 50% of them are a combination of government agents and paid informers."

And the government likes it that way. When a protest starts, they send in these guys to turn the protest violent and tell the cops to look the other way - which the cops are very willing to do because they're on the side of Trump. Very few anti-Trump protesters show up with guns - militia members do. As the Blue Leaks showed, law enforcement was more interested in pursuing Antifa/BLM threats that they had no proof of instead of actual militia threats they knew about.
Leaked Documents Show Police Knew Far-Right Extremists Were the Real Threat at Protests, Not “Antifa”
An analysis of leaked law enforcement documents reveals an obsession with “antifa” despite evidence of threats of violence to police and protesters.

Not to mention that it is the cops' over-reaction to protests that usually turn them violent.

"Elections have always been rigged to a degree by political machines in the US...The MSM tells you it never happens and it is rare but it always happens and it will happen in this election."

Depends on how you define "rigged". Most rigging these days is done by gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement - not by the means used by the old Tammany Hall days. More importantly, the question is how *well* the rigging actually works. In 2016, there were plenty of reports of questionable voting practices in key states. I have not seen an analysis as to which side did it the most and how well or whether it clearly affected Trump's win or not.

In any event, I still stand by my prediction that, given Trump's narcissistic nature, no matter how the election turns out - even if it's a landslide for Biden - Trump will try to foment a Constitutional Crisis by any means necessary - including fomenting riots in the street and Federal government over-reaction to those riots. He has absolutely no reason not to - since everything is all about him. As long as he doesn't do something that gets him thrown in jail, he'll do anything and everything he can to screw up the election. That's who he is - an extremely stupid - but cunning - bull in a China shop.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 2 2020 2:29 utc | 68

Richard Steven Hack @ 53

I wish it was that simple. There are problems with your Lockdown Uber Alles philosophy. We've seen lockdowns since the spring yet the pandemic continues. You claim it's because they didn't do them correctly or not long enough. Now we have about 20-30 examples of countries doing lockdowns that all failed. On the other hand we have one example of a non lockdown nation(Sweden). Guess who is doing the best? Maybe lockdowns fail and will always fail because they don't work? How many times must they fail before you admit that?

The fact that they aren't done correctly reflects on the reality that it's not possible to do them correctly. You say they aren't done for long enough. How long? Until everyone starves to death? That would certainly end the pandemic! Raul, at Automatic Earth, complained that governments were not supplying all its citizens with N95 masks. He'd already made the point that in hospitals such masks are worn once then disposed of. Can you imagine the amount of waste if every person used at least one N95 mask a day? His suggestion sounded good in theory but is impractical. Perhaps you should reassess your position on lockdowns. If they never work it could be because they are also impractical.

Plus there are two things which don't necessarily go together. Just because one is against lockdowns does not necessarily mean one is a Covid denier. There are good reason for opposing lockdowns such as the contradiction of using them in a "free" society. Or the idea of giving governments unlimited power. Or the fact that less than 1% will die from Covid, yet 100% must put their lives on hold forever.

Even your spike in deaths is suspect. It appears that since March no one dies of influenza or old age any more. The people presenting the facts are biased as they've been fearmongering for 8 months. Why should we trust them? These medical stats have all the credibility of a Democratic primary. Show me where death totals for the year are significantly higher than average. For a pandemic I'd expect double or triple the average. Instead every country is at the high end of their average or just over it. Makes one wonder if there is even a pandemic. I guess it's the 21st century Snowflake version: a pandemic in which hardly anyone dies!

Posted by: EoinW | Nov 2 2020 2:40 utc | 69

@ jackrabbit... thanks.... i made an astro prediction that trump would win a few months ago.. now the prediction looks shaky at best... if debs is reading - fine - laugh all you want! i do agree with @ 63 rsh last line to you.. i just don't have it in my to say all that to get to rsh's last line, but i think the same as richard on that... the astro community is pretty evenly split on who wins the election, so you can take it all with a good grain of salt...

on a different note some might find this interesting...
Last phase of the desktop wars?

Posted by: james | Nov 2 2020 2:49 utc | 70

Richard Steven Hack @Nov2 0:29 #63

Yup. But again, even if Trump wins, it merely bolsters your theory's credibility. It doesn't prove it ...

That's true. However ...

In general, a theory is thought to be factual if it has predictive power. In the natural sciences, this relies on the repeatability of experimental results. In the social sciences we don't have the luxury of a repeatable test but we do have a little thing called absurdity.

Pundits with reams of data available to them (polling data and voting data from past Presidential elections) can not forsee a Trump landslide. Many such knowledgeable observers would say that a Trump landslide is absurd. A theory that accurately predicts such an 'absurdity' deserves more credibility than a theory that predicted something more mundane.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 2 2020 2:51 utc | 71

How a fake persona laid the groundwork for a Hunter Biden conspiracy deluge

A 64-page document that was later disseminated by close associates of President Donald Trump appears to be the work of a fake "intelligence firm."

The fake intelligence document, however, preceded the leak by months, and it helped lay the groundwork among right-wing media for what would become a failed October surprise: a viral pile-on of conspiracy theories about Hunter Biden.

<> <> <> <> <>

Except this "October surprise" (and several others) has been very successful. Especially the part that attacks social media as demonstrably partisan. Trump voters are super-motivated by these surprises while anti-Trump voters (aka Biden-Harris voters) are not very energized at all.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 2 2020 3:02 utc | 72

@ Posted by: EoinW | Nov 2 2020 2:40 utc | 70

You claim it's because they didn't do them correctly or not long enough. Now we have about 20-30 examples of countries doing lockdowns that all failed. On the other hand we have one example of a non lockdown nation(Sweden). Guess who is doing the best?

Best by what metric? GDP growth, which is a meaningless and absurd "metric" to begin with, measuring in the same pseudo-commensurable monetary variable outputs of food as well as financial derivatives?

By any sane metric, Sweden is doing mediocre at best, and worse than its neighbors Norway and Finland who have practiced more stringent public health measures. Countries in Asia, like Vietnam, managed to avoid lockdown through strict surveillance and high degrees of public trust - something the privatized and conditioned-to-be-cynical self-described "Western" societies lack (except the surveillance, plenty of that, just mainly in private, and therefore unaccountable, hands). Countries which didn't manage to avoid lockdowns, like the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Korea, as well as the Western nation New Zealand, are doing swimmingly compared to West Europe and the US, and without breakthrough miracle drugs or any other deus ex machina. There is a simple way to deal with this. There always has been. The US and the other Faustian countries, however, can not put exponential GDP growth away. It is their sole value, their sole goal, and all will be sacrificed for it.

Posted by: fnord | Nov 2 2020 3:14 utc | 73

Jackrabbit @Nov2 2:51 @72

Actually, to be more accurate, it's actually consensus opinion that is the central concept, not absurdity.

The more a prediction differs from consensus opinion, the more it is seen as absurd.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 2 2020 3:18 utc | 74

The European Mortality Monitoring Project (EUROMOMO) has been monitoring excess mortality in Europe since 2008 for the purpose of "detecting and measuring, on a real-time basis, excess number of deaths related to influenza and other possible public health threats across participating European Countries."

EUROMOMO's key metric is called the "z-score". Briefly, z-scores remove differences due to seasons and populations so that they are directly comparable with different countries and different time periods. More details on z-scores:

What is a z-score?

The following link shows "z-scores by country":

Z-scores by country

The user can adjust the period sliders to examine any length of time between 2015 and 2020. For example, to examine the UK's z-scores for 2020 simply adjust the sliders to the range 2020-01 to end (currently 2020-42). The user will be able to see that while there was a problem with excess mortality for the period from 2020-12 to 2020-22 there has been no real problem since. Also, the user will notice that a significant number of countries (e.g. Austria, Denmark, Germany [partial, Hesse & Berlin only], Greece, Hungary, Norway) never had any excess mortality problem.

Posted by: ADKC | Nov 2 2020 3:28 utc | 75

Posted by: EoinW | Nov 2 2020 2:40 utc | 70

Like clue, you completely ignore my point about tracing and isolating. This indicates an agenda similar to his. Your questions about "how long" and the like clearly show that you've never bothered to examine those countries that did do it right and the recommendations on how to protect oneself from the virus which have been made over the last eight months. All the information is available. Go look it up. I've answered all of your questions in posts I've done here over the last eight months. If you can't be bothered to educate yourself on the actual facts in preference to simply ignoring the available information which answers every question you've asked in order to present such questions as somehow being a credible argument against lockdowns and other measures, there's not much more I can say to you.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 2 2020 3:29 utc | 76

Robert Fisk dies aged 74:

Veteran journalist and author Robert Fisk dies aged 74
Highly regarded, controversial foreign correspondent had long relationship with

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/veteran-journalist-and-author-robert-fisk-dies-aged-74-1.4397069

Posted by: arbetet | Nov 2 2020 3:39 utc | 77

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 2 2020 2:51 utc | 72 In general, a theory is thought to be factual if it has predictive power.

No - it is thought to be factual if in fact the prediction actually becomes *true* via experiment. And even then, the theory remains a theory. It may be an *accepted* theory, but it remains a theory - which can be overthrown if further data becomes available. Never lecture me on basic science.

And of course, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, whether in physical science or normal reality.

"Many such knowledgeable observers would say that a Trump landslide is absurd. A theory that accurately predicts such an 'absurdity' deserves more credibility than a theory that predicted something more mundane."

Adding your point about "consensus" in place of "absurdity" as you did. You're just repeating what I said. Your theory is *plausible* and *credible*. If a Trump landslide occurs, I agree that it bolsters your theory's *credibility*. It does *not* *prove* the theory. As I said, alternative theories are possible - and indeed likely. There was plenty of arguments made over how Trump beat Clinton in 2016. If Trump wins this time, there will be many more. Any of which might be just as plausible and credible as yours. Many of them will point to actual facts and figures, as they did in 2017 and beyond, to explain the results. You're not going to have any such evidence (most likely, although anything is possible) - you'll still have your theory.

Not to mention that I don't know any voting experts in my research today who would declare a Trump win "absurd" or even *necessarily* unlikely. There are still some poorly measured general factors about the state of US voting which the experts disagree one or are still researching. Again, we probably won't know why any upset occurs until months or years later - if ever.

All: Meanwhile, I recommend this video by City Prepping who analyzes the possibilities for election day, when the polls close, the day after, the weeks after and the months after, in terms of how anything other than a landslide - and perhaps not even then - for one side or the other is likely to cause chaos.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 2 2020 3:44 utc | 78

Re: AP Explains

I can't buy the idea that France is a paragon of free speech and secularism as long as they have the Gayssot Law on the books. Maybe Muslims just don't like hypocrisy.

Posted by: farm ecologist | Nov 2 2020 3:50 utc | 79

It is kovid update from India. The places where covid19 struck first are seeing gradual reductions in the intensity of spreading. The deaths in India are skewed in that many are below 50 years. Incidentally this is the group that was not exposed to BGC Vaccination as smallpox was eradicated by then. Now there is a school of thought to immunize elderly with bcg vaccines.
But whatever happens govt will never relinquish the mask mandate which cannot be enforced 100%. The govt is also bent upon kovid vaccination by mandating its use (even though vaccines are not ready). It is also actively suppressing the opposition to vaccines.
But in India if you want to fail spectacularly you make it compulsory as evidenced by note ban, mask mandate etc.

Posted by: Rao | Nov 2 2020 4:30 utc | 80

The Hack is continuing to throw a hissy fit because other people won't lockstep into the same line of thinking as he has.

Sadly, the real world continues to provide data points.
1) Lockdowns don't work. They haven't worked *anywhere*. Nor are epidemiologists expert in anything except perhaps epidemics.
Sadly, the real world involves tradeoffs over multiple dimensions.
2) COVID isn't going away - not by lockdown, not by any other means for at least another year and likely far more. Perhaps forever. The failure to take this into account shows yet more intellectual inflexibility.
3) COVID mortality rates are falling.
4) The link I posted from Rickards - Rickards adds a number of detailed data points which further damages the case for lockdowns, including: 50K more suicides in 2020 to date vs. comparable past years. There are more homicides and overdoses as well. With numbers of that magnitude, just for these 3 areas - the 20% increase in overall US mortality is even less convincingly a big COVID disease problem as opposed to a significant COVID disease problem exacerbated by a catastrophic economic disaster.

Rickards also points out that:
a) Trump closed travel from China in January, and closed travel to European countries in the 5 weeks after that.
Would Democrats have done the same thing? I doubt it - thus the meme that Trump mishandled COVID is far less convincing in this specific aspect.
b) Cuomo in New York screamed for ventilators; Trump invoked the Defense Production Act and got the ventilators. The ventilators turn out to be irrelevant and most are still in their boxes. Cuomo also unquestionably increased the New York death toll by forcing nursing homes to accept patients who had COVID. Yet somehow Cuomo and lockdowns are a symbol of how COVID would have been handled better? Talk about failing up.
c) PPE shortages in the US are because China outsourcing has caused almost all US production of PPE to cease. This is a clear signal that "Make America Great Again" has value beyond being a slogan, at the minimum for PPE. Insufficient PPE due to outsourcing is the fault of the past multiple administrations: Obama, Bush and Clinton - not Trump.

Net net: you are welcome to lock yourself down.
The case for locking everyone else down - far, far less clear. Especially these days.
Masks - I'm ok with mask mandates even as the science is not 100% clear, because the harm is minimal and thus the opportunity cost such a mandate imposes is minimal.

Posted by: c1ue | Nov 2 2020 4:36 utc | 81

Richard Steven Hack @Nov2 3:44 #79

The question I'm addressing is HOW CREDIBLE a theory is after it is show to have predictive power. When you say, it's more credible but "it remains a theory", it sound very much like the dismissive phrase "it's just a theory".

My theory is not simply a hunch, a guess, or random pick. It is formed by close observation of historical facts and accepted theories like the 'illusion of democracy'. That is what gives it predictive power. And I suggest that if the prediction comes to pass then it credibility of the theory is boosted by how far from consensus view was the predicted outcome.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence?

Sure, but does that really apply here? Is the existence of "Deep State" really an extraordinary claim? Is the desire for control and goal-seeking of such an entity really an extraordinary claim?

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 2 2020 5:04 utc | 82

@83
The extraordinary claim being made isn't the existence of the deepstate or the desire for control. 95% of MoA readers are entirely onboard with those claims....the extraordinary claim is that Trump is the deepstate candidate. I am not sure why you are getting slippery with your argument?

You're theory is not simply a hunch...yes, I'd say that holds true for the many theories one finds at this site...that is why i come here.

I think Trump will lose bigly...just as i thought there is no way in hell Biden picks Gabbard as VP.

If Trump wins in a landslide it will lend some credence to your theory, but as others have noted, doesn't prove it. Just like if Biden wins it undermines your theory but doesn't disprove it.


Posted by: Haasaan | Nov 2 2020 5:49 utc | 83

I'm sorry to hear about Robert Fisk, yes there are aspects of Fisk the journo I found wanting, but he did try hard to get it right. My concern was that he sometimes looked in the wrong places to find the right information.

On the other hand when Fisk highlighted the garbage which western media were pushing about the Douma gas attack as being nonsense, it inspired my brother to call me and finally accept that the west was indeed peddling tosh about what was going on in Syria.
So Fisk may not have been at the vanguard exactly, but once he said what many of us already knew, in a mainstream outlet, that made it impossible for those who consider themselves 'old school journos' (and who regarded Fisk as being the epitome of what the gig was about) to keep peddling the same old tosh without considering there was a valid alternative viewpoint.

I dunno whether it had any effect on Peter Hitchens at the Daily Mail with his OPCW revelations but it would have made Hitchens' job of selling his story to Mail bosses a helluva a lot easier.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Nov 2 2020 6:10 utc | 84

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Nov 2 2020 5:04 utc | 83 The question I'm addressing is HOW CREDIBLE a theory is after it is show to have predictive power.

"When you say, it's more credible but "it remains a theory", it sound very much like the dismissive phrase 'it's just a theory'."

I don't care what you think it sounds like. This is basic science. All theories remain as theories because science does not deal in absolute truth. As I said, they become "accepted" once there is no countervailing evidence. This is different from *observable facts*. You don't, by your admission, have any "observable facts." You have "close observations" of historical facts - not current facts - and "accepted theories". And the "illusion of democracy" is not an "accepted theory." Obviously. And even it were, it doesn't necessarily follow logically that the Deep State wants Trump to win over Biden. You have no syllogism that establishes that from that premise.

"My theory is not simply a hunch, a guess, or random pick."

I never said it was. In fact, I said it was a very plausible and credible theory. It's just not a *proven* theory - and isn't likely to be, absent someone leaking Deep State files proving it is.

"That is what gives it predictive power."

But the prediction has yet to be proven true. Citing your theory as having "predictive power" in advance of the prediction coming true is ridiculous.

"And I suggest that if the prediction comes to pass then it credibility of the theory is boosted by how far from consensus view was the predicted outcome."

And I repeat that there is no "consensus view" about Trump's probability of re-election. The Democrats think he can be beaten. The Republicans think he can't. There's hardly a consensus. Cite some statistical poll that shows the majority of people believe Trump won't be elected. Here, I'll cite one that says the opposite.

Back in May, 55% of voters thought Trump would win. A more recent Gallop poll shows the following:


The poll asked, regardless of whom they personally support, who Americans think will win in November. Gallup found that 56 percent of Americans expect Trump to win over Biden, while 40 percent think Biden will win.

"The prediction of a Trump victory is not consistent with the average of recent national presidential vote-preference polls, which show Biden with a significant lead, but it is consistent with Americans' expectation of a victory for the incumbent president in every race in which one has been running," Gallup said in their analysis of the results.

While in fact, a recent Gallop poll says most people don't think he deserves to win:


The majority of U.S. registered voters, 56%, believe President Donald Trump does not deserve to be reelected, while 43% say he does....

The percentage of voters who currently say Trump deserves to be reelected matches his latest overall job approval rating from the same poll. Gallup's previous measures of Trump's reelection deservedness were each within three points of his approval rating, and the significance to reelection is clear. As Gallup reported in May: "Historically, all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost."

As would be expected, nearly all Republicans (93%) say the president deserves to be reelected, while few Democrats (3%) agree. Among independents, 36% say Trump deserves reelection and 61% say he does not.

So I don't see any such consensus. I see people who think he shouldn't win - but will anyway. Historically they are probably correct. But that proves nothing, either.

"Is the existence of "Deep State" really an extraordinary claim? Is the desire for control and goal-seeking of such an entity really an extraordinary claim?"

No. But the claim that they will and have orchestrated this election to give Trump a "landslide" victory *is*.

One thing I was thinking about earlier is how you seem to not realize just how hard it is to rig a national election in a country this size. The whole Russiagate BS was based on the BS notion that Russia had some means of actually influencing a US election more than the US electorate and media and political parties themselves, and that therefore they actually tried. In reality, of course, the Russian state isn't that stupid.

I was watching a Russian news panel (with English subtitles) prior to the last Russian election, and they came to the same conclusion regarding their election: that the US is not capable of influencing a Russian election more than the Russians themselves.

A US election is not some city or county election with a couple hundred thousand voters. There are 150 million people voting in 50 states. Even discounting all but the close swing states, it's still a massive undertaking to actually influence the election over and above the opinions of the actual voters. All the "computer vote fraud" is mostly BS, even though it is relatively easy to hack a voting computer (Disclaimer: I'm not an expert in that, and I haven't reviewed the current state of play in that area of infosec.) As I mentioned above to someone else, most of the vote rigging today is done well before the election due to voter registration games and redistricting. It's really hard to change a national election by somehow cramming a few tens or hundreds of thousand of fraudulent votes into a ballot box on election day (or the days before or after) even in swing states. Sure, there are compromised districts and voting officials. There always are. But they have to make enough of an effort to throw the election by at least several percent in order to be sure there is a real effect that matters.

What you haven't done is make a case for *how* the Deep State has thrown this election for Trump. You simply assume they have - with zero evidence. List the actual measures you think the Deep State has used to *guarantee* the landslide you think is coming.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 2 2020 6:11 utc | 85

Posted by: Haasaan | Nov 2 2020 5:49 utc | 84 Just like if Biden wins it undermines your theory but doesn't disprove it.

And that point is absolutely correct, as well. Maybe the Deep State *does* want Trump to win. But the problem is assuming they *can* and *have* taken steps to insure that result - without knowing what those steps are or even could be. We can certainly theorize about such steps - and we're back to theories again.


Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 2 2020 6:15 utc | 86

@adkc 76
great link, thanks. I encourage others to look at it.

If you scroll up to the top, the same data is presented in raw form vs z-score (#i.e. simply number of deaths) which is easier to understand IMO, and avoids questions about the baselining method.

The pre-covid average for this data set's EU26 countries is ~60k people/month, all ages, all causes, very first graph on top. This spiked to 90k in the 14-15th weeks of 2020, i.e. 1st week of April.

We are now starting the 45th week of 2020. UNLIKE march-april, the current wave of cases does not YET have a spike in mortality, and hopefully it remains that way. But the mortality peak in ~Apr 1 came from cases that entered the hospital 2-4 weeks prior, and the current rise in EU cases really took off starting ~3 weeks ago and has not yet peaked, so we should revisit this data in a couple of weeks before concluding anything.

Posted by: ptb | Nov 2 2020 6:25 utc | 87

re: Multiple posts by jackrabbit

For what it's worth, I spent the evening and well into the night talking to my American relatives and social media contacts. I looked at some of the stories including ones that said Trump's "silent" supporters have been telling pollsters that they will vote for Biden (AP if you want to look it up).

My conclusion is that there is NO FUCKING WAY Trump wins in a landslide. There is NO FUCKING WAY he wins the popular vote. Whether he actually ends up in a second term? I don't really know or care all that much. But it sure as HELL will not be via landslide.

Hence, I expect you will be having to eat some crow and adjust your "theory of everything" very shortly here. I look forward to the next revision.

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 2 2020 6:37 utc | 88

ADKC #76

Also, the user will notice that a significant number of countries (e.g. Austria, Denmark, Germany [partial, Hesse & Berlin only], Greece, Hungary, Norway) never had any excess mortality problem.

Even if that ends up being true, there is no denying that the USA with their privatized for-profit-only healthcare system (other than Medicare/Medicaid) will be a contributing factor to the number of dead Americans versus the rest of the world with civilized, socialized and centralized health care systems. You also won't see any German, Greek, Hungarian or Norwegian citizens going bankrupt because of medical bills due to COVID. Whether there is actually no excess mortality in those places does nothing to address the inept and frankly criminal way the American government handled the crisis or the undeniable number of excess dead Americans.

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 2 2020 6:44 utc | 89

re K_C_ # 89

I've been thinking much the same thing, I don't want either cuck to win but everything I can discern from amerikans I've spoken to from California, Oklahoma, Kansas, New Mexico to Virginia - some of who are maga fools has lead me to conclude Biden's cartel has this one sewn up.

Alla these dim partisans better do their work n make sure the dims don't act like the crooked, elite pandering arseholes most of us know 'em to be, but I won't hold my breath.
Just as I won't expect the bunny response to be anything other than "The deep state changed their minds and decided to get behind creepy Joe" if Biden gets up, a meme he will push out like a scratched piece of vinyl for the next 4 years.

I mean to say we're 11 months into the coronavirus and despite the fact that everyone has formed their opinion and have no intention of altering it, some types are still pushing the same tired tropes that stopped working 6 months ago, why? No one will change their mind.

Posted by: Debsisdead | Nov 2 2020 7:12 utc | 90

Yasha Levine is doing good work over on his own Substack account.

https://yasha.substack.com/p/glenn-greenwald-ran-cover-billionaire

Good, or at least alternative, take on Greenwald's bailing from TI.

Debisdead - is it late at night in America? Nobody is on or commenting RN!

Posted by: _K_C_ | Nov 2 2020 7:35 utc | 91

about midnight on the westcoast... debs - i agree with you - no one will change their mind..

Posted by: james | Nov 2 2020 7:44 utc | 92

In regards to Turkey I would like to add something: Since the failed coup of 2016 there were (are?) massive purges in all levels of the society.

In the military an etimated 15.000 men had to leave - so it is not just some generals sent into early retirement, but really purges down to the junior officer and NCO level. It is safe to assume that the Turkish military on average is fairly incompetent by now and not combat ready.

The same is true for the educational system. Tens of thousand of teachers have been dismissed on the grounds of political unreliability. This will have enormous long term consequences for Turkey that in my opinion by far eclipse the current economic problems. Erdogan is essentially transforming Turkey back into the sick man of Europe.

Posted by: m | Nov 2 2020 8:49 utc | 93

Richard Steven Hack #various

The way I see it the rate of decline for the many in the USAi will increase regardless of the 'victor' in this election season. I guess there are some economic niches that reveal themselves - perhaps this is one.

Reloading ammo seems probable too.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 2 2020 10:05 utc | 94

Vale Robert Fisk

Great journalist and author. Reporter extraordinaire, lover of the middle east and clear thinker.

Rest in peace lifelong reminder of all things valuable and important. For decades this compassionate human wrote to the world of things that empires would prefer not to have heard of.

His passionate writing on the Armenian genocide was one mighty helping hand to remember the evil that men can do. I am saddened at his passing.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Nov 2 2020 10:11 utc | 95

Who benefits from Islamic terrorism in France?

https://toranja-mecanica.blogspot.com/2020/10/quem-beneficia-com-o-terrorismo.html

Posted by: ARIES | Nov 2 2020 11:35 utc | 96

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 1 2020 22:19 utc | 45

I grew up on Robert Fisks articles. He will be sadly missed. The world has lost a true warrior for the truth ...

Posted by: Arch Bungle | Nov 2 2020 11:59 utc | 97

Agree with others here that Fisk was not perfect, but would like to point out that nobody is. I would put Fisk with Murray, very useful testimony from a guy that knows the facts, even if his framing is sometimes not the way I would put it. And there aren't that many these days. And I value his sense of moral outrage too, as with Murray.

Snowden gets a happy ending:

With child on way, Edward Snowden to apply for Russian CITIZENSHIP, ending seven years of legal limbo since Moscow exile

I come to appreciate Ms Ardern more and more as time goes on:

New Zealand appoints Maori politician with facial tattoo as its first female foreign minister

Posted by: Bemildred | Nov 2 2020 12:18 utc | 98

@_K_C_ | Nov 2 2020 6:44 utc | 89

You also won't see any German, Greek, Hungarian or Norwegian citizens going bankrupt because of medical bills due to COVID.

That's true, since nobody seems to have "COVID". What is true, however, is that some will go bankrupt due to the draconian measures against the ghost virus, killing their livelihood.

Posted by: Norwegian | Nov 2 2020 12:22 utc | 99

RSH @ 52

There will be no better smarter lockdowns. There will be more of the same while expecting a different result. There will be no serious discussion. Our rulers are not capable of admitting error.

Contact tracing in US only means tracking consumer habits for targeted marketing. Isolation American style is a coffin or a prison cell.

Posted by: oldhippie | Nov 2 2020 12:29 utc | 100

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