|
Can’t Count Votes? Just Draw Straws.
It seems that we all will have to fill up our popcorn supplies as the rather comical and disgraceful process of U.S. vote counting is likely to continue until maybe December 8, the safe harbor date on which the states will have to certify their electors.
The race is nowhere near where the Democrats and their supporting media had expected it to go. Just last week polls claimed that Biden would lead in Wisconsin by 17 percent. The current margin is a rather dubious 0.6 percent which upcoming recounts may well eliminate.
That the Democrats lose House seats, do not win the Senate and barely manage to drag their demented presidential candidate towards a stalemate tells a lot about their lack of sane policies. A donor party completely disinterested in what the people really want – medicare for all, no fracking etc. – will have little chance to survive a future onslaught of conservatives with a more competent figure head than Donald Trump.
There will be protests, probably violent ones, and more legal action from either side. I see no compromise possible that would satisfy both parties. I fear that, should Trump lose this election. Trumpism will only grow and make the U.S. ungovernable.
Maybe Trump and Biden could publicly draw straws to get over with it.
From FiveThirtyEight:
Geoffrey Skelley Nov. 5, 9:23 am
It looks like another 20,000 or so votes have come in from Philadelphia, and they broke 92 percent for Biden. Along with about 9,000 votes from deep-blue Montgomery County that broke 73 percent for Biden, this cut Trump’s statewide advantage from 2.6 percentage points to 2.3 points. It might seem wild that the Philadelphia tranche of votes could be that Democratic, but look at this way: Philadelphia usually votes around 80 percent (or a little higher) for Democratic presidential candidates. Clinton, for example, won 82 percent of the county’s votes in 2016. Right now, Biden is at about 80 percent in Philadelphia. But we also know that voters who used mail-in ballots were more likely to be Democrats, so you’re talking about the most Democratic votes out of a strongly Democratic-leaning pool of voters.
Clare Malone Nov. 5, 9:50 am
The president has been tweeting more this morning about wanting to “stop” the (legitimate, of course) vote count. Apparently, what Trump means, according to his campaign, is that they want to stop the count until the Trump campaign can monitor it (again, as we’ve said before, there is no proof of fraud.) The specific rules for partisans observing the vote-counting process vary from state to state and the National Conference of State Legislatures has a handy guide for those rules. But take for instance, Pennsylvania, which is a pretty big prize today. “Partisan observers are permitted to be present when absentee and mail-in ballot envelopes are opened, and when the ballots are counted and recorded,” the NCSL writes. In Arizona, “Partisan observers are authorized to observe processing at the county recorder’s office.” In Nevada, “Members of the general public may observe the preparation of absentee ballots at central counting boards.” So, it’s unclear why the Trump campaign would argue that these vote counts would need to be stopped so they can observe them; they’re already allowed to observe.
MY NOTE: Yes, it’s clear why he wants that – he wants to interrupt the process and have his people claim fraud where there is none.
Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux Nov. 5, 12:03 pm
Quick legal update: The Trump campaign/GOP case in Chatham County, Georgia, alleging mishandling of late-arriving ballots, was dismissed by a judge on Thursday morning after a hearing where evidence and arguments were presented.
Geoffrey Skelley Nov. 5, 1:06 pm
Meanwhile, another 4,500 votes came in from Georgia, which went 63 percent to 36 percent for Biden, but given the small number, they moved things only very slightly in Biden’s direction. According to ABC News, Trump now leads Biden by 0.27 percentage points, or 13,540 votes. Earlier today, we heard there were about 61,000 votes left to count, but since then, around 10,500 more votes have come in, and Georgia’s secretary of state just said that 50,401 ballots are still outstanding.
With counting continuing in numerous counties throughout #Georgia, as of 12:45 p.m. today there are approximately 50,401 ballots still outstanding#SecureTheVote
— GA Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (@GaSecofState) November 5, 2020
Geoffrey Skelley Nov. 5, 1:33 pm
In a sad sign of the times, the county registrar in Clark County, Nevada, said that his wife and mother are worried about his safety. After what we saw in Maricopa County, Arizona, when pro-Trump protesters showed up last night and caused a disturbance outside where vote counting was going on, it’s understandable.
messed up state of things: Joe Gloria, the Clark County, NV voter registrar, said his wife and mother fear for his safety
— Eliza Relman (@eliza_relman) November 5, 2020
Nathaniel Rakich Nov. 5, 2:33 pm
Biden would need to win only 60 percent of the outstanding vote (mostly mail-in ballots) in Pennsylvania in order to carry the state. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jonathan Tamari, Biden had won 78 percent of the mail votes counted as of this morning.
Geoffrey Skelley Nov. 5, 4:22 pm
Around 14,000 Pennsylvania votes were just reported by Erie and Philadelphia counties (roughly split between them), and Biden captured more than 80 percent of those ballots. This updated count brought Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania below 100,000 votes to about 98,000 votes, or 1.5 percentage points (50.1 percent to 48.6 percent).
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 6 2020 0:18 utc | 191
From FiveThirtyEight:
Nate Silver Nov. 5, 4:33 pm
If 90 percent of the remaining ballots are from Clark County, Nevada should be projected for Biden, IMO.
JUST IN: Nevada’s Secretary of State says there are approximately 190,150 ballots left to count, 90% of which are from heavily-Democratic Clark County. h/t @StevenTDennis
— Emma Kinery (@EmmaKinery) November 5, 2020
Nate Silver Nov. 5, 4:53 pm
Biden now within 10,000 votes of Trump in Georgia.
GA Presidential Election Results
Trump (R): 49.48% (2,439,678 votes)
Biden (D): 49.29% (2,430,153 votes)
Jorgensen (L): 1.23% (60,821 votes)
Trump Margin: +9,525 (-3,246)
Estimated: > 99% votes in
More results here: https://t.co/xlHf7GZUxJ
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 5, 2020
Geoffrey Skelley Nov. 5, 6:13 pm
A new update of around 37,000 ballots just came in from Pennsylvania, of which Biden won about two-thirds. This reduced Trump’s raw vote margin to about 78,000 votes, or 1.2 percentage points (50.0 percent to 48.8 percent). Most of that was 30,000 votes from Cumberland County just west of Harrisburg, the state capital. While Cumberland is Republican-leaning — Trump leads there 55 percent to 44 percent now — Biden won nearly 70 percent of this tranche of ballots, which look to have made up most of the county’s remaining mail votes. Heavily Republican Blair County (home to Altoona) also reported more than 5,000 votes, but Trump only won a narrow majority of those.
And finally:
Nathaniel Rakich Nov. 5, 3:56 pm
An Update On What’s Still Left To Count
We’re going to take a bit of a break on the live blog until this evening to actually feed ourselves, bathe, etc. Here’s where things stand in the presidential race in the key remaining states:
Where we’re expecting more data tonight:
Arizona: Biden currently leads here by 68,129 votes, but there are around 430,000 left to count, according to KNXV-TV analyst Garrett Archer. We are expected to get more results from Pima County (Tucson) early this evening and from Maricopa County (the Phoenix area, where the bulk of the uncounted ballots are) at 9 p.m. Eastern. It’s unclear whether we’ll get a projection here. (Some outlets, such as Fox News, have already projected Arizona for Biden, but most media outlets have not, including our colleagues at ABC News.) But so far, Trump has been gaining in late-counted ballots, but there is reason to think that may not be true going forward.
Dribs and drabs, but we’re watching closely:
Pennsylvania: Trump currently leads Biden by 108,367 votes here, but that lead has been narrowing as more ballots have been counted. Approximately 340,000 mail-in votes are left to count, and the secretary of state said earlier on CNN that she thought the networks would be able to project a winner here today, but we don’t really have a good sense yet of timing: The outstanding votes have been trickling in slowly.
Georgia: Trump currently leads here by a razor-thin margin (12,768 votes) with 47,277 ballots left to count. Most of those are expected to be counted today, but at least one county (Chatham, where about 17,000 ballots are outstanding) says it will need until tomorrow. So whether we’ll get a projection here later today is murky, too.
No big updates until tomorrow — or later:
Nevada: After a recent update, Biden still leads here by 11,438 votes. Although about 140,000 late-arriving mail ballots or provisional ballots have yet to be counted, these ballots are expected to lean Democratic. Clark County (home of Las Vegas), where 90 percent of the outstanding ballots are, will release its next update on Friday and should have the bulk of the counting done this weekend.
North Carolina: North Carolina has counted every ballot it had in its possession as of Tuesday, and Trump leads by 76,737 votes among them. However, the state has announced that about 117,000 mail-in ballots and 40,766 provisional ballots are potentially outstanding, although not all of them will count. Mail-in ballots have until Nov. 12 to arrive, and only at that point will more results be released.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Nov 6 2020 0:19 utc | 192
|