It is only one month until the United Kingdom of Britain leaves the European Union. There is still no deal about the future relations between the two entities and the time is running out. But even if a deal about the economic issues is finalized and signed there will still be many changes and inconveniences.
One argument with which the British government promoted Brexit was the "end of free movement". Most people who voted for Brexit probably thought that this would mean the closing of a one-way street that only affects migrants to Britain from lower tier countries. Now they are waking up to the fact that Brexit is closing down a two way road.
- Travel rules will change after end of the post-Brexit 'standstill' transition period
- After January 1 UK tourists visiting EU countries will be restricted to 90 day stays
- The rules have prompted a backlash from Britons who own holiday home in EU
These are not 'new' EU rules. Starting January 1 Britons will be allowed on vacation in the EU for a maximum of 90 days in every six month period. These are the long existing rules for non-EU citizens if their country has no agreement for bilateral free movement with the EU.
The Daily Mail, which now laments the issue, campaigned for years for the UK to become one of those countries. It is now outraged about the consequences.
There will be more such 'surprises' which Brexit promoters will lament about even when these were utterly predictable.
Now, as Brexit becomes reality, people are finally waking up to the myriad of problems it will create for UK car maker, farmers, logistics and everyone:
On Jan. 1, the free movement of goods across the English Channel is due to end for the first time in half a century. The change has sparked fears of severe bottlenecks at British ports and highways, where customs officers will inspect trucks amid an acute lack of staff that could rattle supply chains.
Some 10,000 trucks cross the channel on ferries each day, moving about half of all goods between the U.K. and the continent while dozens of daily sailings move freight mainly between Dover on the British side and the French ports of Calais and Dunkirk.
“The problem is that you have to stop things,” said Richard Ballantyne, chief executive of the British Ports Association, a trade body. “Both the driver and the cargo will require documentation and if you queue up, you would immediately face congestion and delays.”
Large parts of the businesses that define London as a global financial center are moving to the EU:
The London Stock Exchange's pan-European share trading platform, Turquoise, opened for trading on Monday, a spokeswoman for the exchange said, joining two rival operators.
The Amsterdam-based hub was set up to avoid disruption to the LSE's EU customers, who face having to trade euro-denominated shares inside the bloc from January because Britain's full access to the EU ends on Dec. 31.
Two other London-based share trading platforms, Cboe and Aquis Exchange, have opened so-called Brexit hubs in the EU to trade shares denominated in euros.
Goldman Sachs is also opening a platform in time for January.
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While opening alternative trading platforms in the EU won't lead to many jobs leaving London, other trading-related activities, such as clearing and settlement, are also likely to move over time.Many international banks in London have opened Brexit hubs in the EU and are under pressure from regulators to undertake activities such as stock, bond and derivatives transactions for EU clients from inside the bloc rather than in London.
Those are quite a number of high paying jobs and a lot of tax revenues that Britain will be missing:
[Consultancy] EY said in a report last month that the 7,500 roles and 1.2 trillion pounds ($1.6 trillion) in assets that have moved already may just be the beginning. It expects further shifts in personnel and assets once the U.K.’s transition period officially ends.
That bodes ill for the U.K., where finance employs more than one million people, makes up about 7% of the economy and accounts for more than a 10th of all tax revenue. Despite that, the industry has garnered little of the attention bestowed on fishing, which makes up just 0.1% of the U.K. economy, in the protracted Brexit negotiations.
The level of access between the markets of Britain and the EU is still not defined. The negotiations are still ongoing but hang on fishing rights, a level playing field to prevent unfair competition and the governance of the deal.
While the EU wants a deal no one is sure if Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson really wants to achieve one. He may be just play for time to achieve a hard Brexit without any EU agreement.
But even if a last minute deal gets done there will still be many changes and disruptions. Without a deal those will be tremendous and may damage Britain beyond repair.