In Which We Debunk A Covidiot Pamphlet
On the recent open thread commentator ADKC quoted from a post at the corona-nonsense blog Off-Guardian. The piece, published last week, is an updated rehash of one the same author posted in April.
The more recent version is unfortunately no better than the old one. It repeats false numbers, is scientifically astonishingly inaccurate, and draws false conclusions.
It makes little sense to review and refute the whole mess. I will therefore concentrate on the 6 of the 8 "Take Home Messages" at the end of the piece which ADKC posted here:
1. Corona viruses are one of the viral agents of the common cold, which, just like the flu, invade the whole planet every year. They cause largely widespread, mostly benign, yearly pandemics of respiratory tract infections.
There are seven distinct corona viruses that infect humans. Four of those can cause the common cold. The infections are generally mild. At times they have more severe consequences like pneumonia. The infection fatality rate for these four corona viruses is estimated to be about 0.1%.
The three other corona viruses, SARS, MERS and SARS-CoV-2 are very different beasts. They cause very severe symptoms in a significant numbers of the infected people. The infection fatality rate for SARS was 9% and for MERS it is even 37%. The true infection fatality rate for SARS-CoV-2 depends on various circumstances (health service availability, social and medical conditions of the population etc.) but is currently estimated to be around 1%.
To mix up the four corona viruses that cause the common cold with the three viruses that have 10 to 370 times higher death rates is highly misleading.
2. COVID-19, the infection caused by SARS-CoV-2, the current corona mutation, is not more lethal than the flu, with a 0.1-0.2% infection fatality rate.
This is a. outright nonsense that has no scientific basis and b. a lie.
SARS-CoV-2 is not a 'mutation' of some general coronavirus (there is none). Its nearest 'relative' is the RaTG13 virus known to be carried by certain bats:
Simplot analysis showed that 2019-nCoV was highly similar throughout the genome to RaTG13 (Fig. 1c), with an overall genome sequence identity of 96.2%.
Humans share some 96 percent of their genes with other primates. But no one would call a human to be a 'mutation' of an ape.
Evolution works through billions of iterative mutations until something unique evolves that fits to its environment. The surviving results of the evolutionary process are unique in kind. SARS-CoV-2 is a very special beast that is unique in its kind and effects.
Now to the bigger blooper in point 2: "is not more lethal than the flu, with a 0.1-0.2% infection fatality rate".
That is outright false and easy to refute. Just take a look at New York City which in April was hit hard during its first wave peak:
Source: 91-Divoc - bigger
The infection fatality rate for New York City can be easily calculated. Some 26% of the 8.3 million inhabitants of New York City now carry antibodies against the virus. Those 2.1 million who are seropositive must have had a SARS-CoV-2 infection. The officially reported Covid-19 caused death toll for New York City is some 23,000. However the more accurate total excess death toll beyond normal levels was 27,000.
Source: NYT, Sep. 23 - bigger
27,000 dead divided through 2.1 million infections gives an Infection Fatality Rate of 1.29%. That is ten times higher than the IFR number the Off-Guardian author claims.
New York City is special in that it is a high density city and has a diverse demographic with many higher risk groups living in relatively crowded quarters. But similar calculations can be made for other areas where sufficient data is available. Lombardy in Italy reported a higher IFR than NYC as did some areas in Spain. Other locations, with younger, more healthy people and better healthcare, will have lower infection fatality rates.
For the United States the general seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in blood donations is only 2%. More dubious estimates claim 8 to 9% overall seroprevalence in the United States. Let's be generous and assume that 10% of the 330 million strong U.S. population have already been infected. The current excess death count for the United States stands at 266,000. Those numbers (266,000/33,000,000) would give a (likely too optimistic) IFR of 0.8%. That is again far, far higher than the Off-Guardian author claims.
The next claim in the Off-Guardian nonsense:
3. An immense majority (95%) of fatal evolutions happen in old and frail individuals with premorbidities, with an average age of death at or above 80 years old.
That claim is again an outright lie:
Of the roughly 1.2 million American deaths that occurred between February 1 and June 17, almost 9% were due to coronavirus. The proportion of deaths due to coronavirus were about the same for each age group above 45 years. Below that, the proportion of deaths due to coronavirus fell dramatically.
Source: ACSH - bigger
The numbers in the second column of the table show that only about half of the total Covid-19 fatalities, not 95%, were "at or above 80 years old".
As for "premorbidities" (being alive is btw one). Hypertension and obesity are named as co-morbidities for Covid-19 cases. The CDC says that 42% of all U.S. inhabitants are obese while some 45% have hypertension. But today these people are alive and reasonably well. Most of them have still several decades of life before them. If they were to get infected with SARS-CoV-2 and die, the virus, not their co-morbidities, would have caused their death.
On to the next Off-Guardian blooper:
4. Antibody studies, cross immunization with other corona strains and the completion of the death toll curve in many countries are strong evidence that the human population is developing herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2. In this context, a severe “second wave” for SARS-CoV-2 is improbable. We may rather expect a new cold episode from it just like every year, but of regular or even weak intensity thanks to the gained herd immunity.
Antibody prevalence even in hard hit place like New York City is way below the 80% or so that would be needed for some kind of "herd immunity". In the U.S. and Europe antibody prevalence is in total way less than 10%. The bay area for example has only some 2%. Is the U.S. ready to give 10 times more lives than the 266,000 who have already died of Covid-19 to achieve a only potentially temporary herd immunity?
Cross immunization with other corona viruses is a conjecture. We have so far no data that shows that there is cross immunity from other viruses that works against SARS-CoV-2.
(Recent data points in the other direction. Children have an innate immune response to SARS-CoV-2 and it protects them well. Every adult has been infected with dozens of different viruses while growing up. We adults have developed and show an adaptive immune response to SARS-CoV-2. This seems to work less well than the children's response. Instead of developing cross immunity through other infections our bodies seem to have learned something (pdf) from previous infections that makes it more difficult to counter SARS-CoV-2.)
The "improbable" second wave of Covid 19 is already developing in several European countries. Just take a look at France. And don't worry. The rise in the still low death toll WILL follow the infection curve with a four weeks lag.
Source: 91-Divoc - bigger
On to 'don't take home' message number 5:
5. PCR testing of SARS-CoV-2 presence does not give any reliable prognostic evidence of its infectious power and lethality. The monitoring of the pandemic state and evolution is given only by the daily evolution of fatalities. In Switzerland as in many other countries, there is no longer any excess mortality attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. Positive test rate is low (around 3%), and tests have as always a technical false positive rate and react to inactive viral fragments or to other corona strains.
The author says that to evaluate the state of the pandemic we should follow the number (death) that is known to lag at least four weeks behind infections instead of following the number of new infections per day. That is lunatic. Its driving at high speed while only looking into the rear view mirror. During a highly dynamic pandemic we need current infection data and predictions, not reviews.
Also: SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests DO NOT react to other coronaviruses. The RNA strings they are reacting to are unique to SARS-CoV-2. The tests can not even 'see' any other ones.
On to point 6:
6. Only in a small percentage of COVID-19 patients, the SARS-CoV-2 virus may, like the flu virus, activate an immunological and inflammatory overresponse, causing at worst fatal pulmonary organ failure.Stress and emotions like fear, anger and sadness may 1) stimulate this overresponse, 2) cause cell death in the emotional brain and 3) trigger therein deleterious overactivities, with resulting cell damages in body tissues.
General isolation, distancing and lockdown measures, by limiting social contacts, freedom and basic human rights, add to the death toll through an upsurge of psychosocial and economic destabilization, worsening of psychiatric and demented individuals and reduction of medical care to the whole population. We have thus a combined causality for an excess mortality of COVID-19, a significant part of it being not due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus itself but to the worldwide COVID-19 panic wave and the imposed introduction of drastic and inhumane measures.
That is the "Lockdowns kill" thesis that many covidiots use to claim that negative side effects of pandemic control measures outweigh their positive effects.
The thesis is wrong. Spain had a total lockdown everywhere between March 14 and May 9. It also had a lot of excess death. A large countrywide seroprevalence study showed where the most people were infected. That data is available on a granular and localized level.
BakuninsTraum @BakuninsT - 23:42 UTC · Sep 25, 2020In the following, I have investigated how the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies in the different parts of Spain correlates with the associated excess mortality rate. /8
I used the results of this epidemiological study as a basis for my analysis:
link
I also used data from the following report on excess mortality:
linkThe excess mortality is very different in various parts of the country: (pic) /10
The seroprevalence of IgG antibodies also varies greatly: (pic) /11
...
@BakuninsT finds that while all of Spain was under lock down only those locations who had high infection rates, and therefore now show high antibody seroprevalence, had excess death.
The regression lines show that the infections - excess death data correlates extremely well. High infection rates caused high excess death:
bigger
bigger
Those locations who were in lockdown but had few or no infections did not have any excess death.
BakuninsTraum @BakuninsT - 23:42 UTC · Sep 25, 2020Conclusion:
The thesis that excess mortality is a consequence of a lockdown has been refuted. The regression line intersects the X-axis, i.e. there is no excess mortality where there are no infections. /16
I hope that ADKC and others who continue to post unscientific screeds from the Off-Guardian and elsewhere have learned a bit from the above. There are quite a number of authors with titles who have preconceived opinions and defend them even when that requires mangling the facts or to simply lie about the science. A professor emeritus of neurosurgery is unlikely to be the best available source for current virology and epidemiology facts. Don't fall for such 'experts'.
In the run-up to the war on Iraq "the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy." That is exactly what the piece we discussed above has done. It should not have been published. With respect to Covid-19 the Off-Guardian editors seems to replicate the Bush administration's lack of veracity.
Posted by b on September 26, 2020 at 19:10 UTC | Permalink
next page »Posted by: David Shinn | Sep 26 2020 19:44 utc | 3
That long long comment of yours is a more plausible theory then any i have read so far.
I will share it with my friends.
Posted by: AtTheEdgeOfEurope | Sep 26 2020 20:00 utc | 2
Please, chill a little bit
Destatis sterbefallzahlen covid-19
https://twitter.com/KiCKLOCHONE/status/1308122235077619714?s=20
Posted by: Gerd Müller | Sep 26 2020 20:00 utc | 3
More COVID19 news from Sweden
"So, to conclude: COVID is over in Sweden. We have herd immunity. Most likely, many other parts of the world do too, including England, Italy, and parts of the US, like New York. And the countries that have successfully contained the spread of the disease, like Germany, Denmark, New Zealand, and Australia, are going to have to stay in lockdown for at least another year, and possibly several years, if they don’t want to develop herd immunity the natural way."
Sweden has achieved herd immunity. 10 Million people is a sample large enough to demonstrate that lockdowns and masks are the wrong answer. Read these two articles from a swedish physician who has worked on the frontline. And no, it is not bc. the Swedes did a "voluntary lockdown".
Posted by: Andreas | Sep 26 2020 20:13 utc | 4
Pff, Bernhard alone writes faster than I can process it all. I'm choking these days because there is too much I want to consolidate and i don't know where to start.
Anyway I would like to get more clarity on the hospitalization /healthcare overload ratios: the optimistic low IFR which are reported here and there are surely not wrong but they apply to up to date fully functional healthcare. In early situations where counterproductive approaches were used , in cases where the population is unhealthy and in situations where the healthcare system couldn't handle the load the numbers for the same profile of patents would be much higher. I am very uncertain about how much higher but it is clear that especially the healthcare overload factor is generally omitted/overlooked.
In the beginning the estimate was 3 to 5%. But this was based on 20% of cases requiring hospitalisation and 1/4 of those requiring intensive care. and I doubt if this is accurate. What is the current percentage of affected people requiring hospitalisation and intensive care? To what extent was overload in NY? I know that hospitals as a whole were not necessarily overloaded but the parts which handle covid can be.
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Sep 26 2020 20:14 utc | 5
Covidiots with logorrhea:
The Chinese brought up the fecal route back in the Spring, seemed well aware of it, hand-washing is exactly about that, and they have stomped the virus flat and keep stomping it as necessary; and yet they have not given up on the lockdowns, masks, quarantines etc. that all these self-interested twits tell us are not necessary, and every time they get new infections, why, they do it all again, but quicker.
Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 26 2020 20:16 utc | 6
Here in the U.K. it’s wide spread again, I would say raging out of control like a fire.
The elderly are generally keeping out the way of it, for obeveous reasons.
It now rages through the schools from there into people’s homes from there to peoples place of work and social circles. University’s have gone down really really bad, it’s carnage.
Right so stop there. ——— This virus could have been cleared up in two months! Think of the financial and human benifit.
Granted that’s all been said.
Here’s my point — The very very people such as off-Gardian, greedy buseness, and yes Boris Johnson also some on this blog (anti maskers)
These very people whining about the uptick and length of pandemic are totaly to blame, its there fault, they need to be called out and heavily fined if they continue their murderous lies.
I said in the very beginning——— TYPHOID MARY
Now we’re overrun with them.
Off-Gardian ! Read Mossad psychopath run.
Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 26 2020 20:18 utc | 7
Oh and evolution does not mainly happen through mutation. Mutation extends the reservoir of buildingblocks but the fast work happens through recombination: using something from elsewhere. Sometimes wholesale as in the case of mitochondria.
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Sep 26 2020 20:21 utc | 8
". A professor emeritus of neurosurgery is unlikely to be the best available source for current virology and epidemiology facts. Don't fall for such experts"
Shoot the messenger?
Not b approved?
As b continues to ignore the problems with the PCR testing- ...
Perhaps one day?
Posted by: R Rose | Sep 26 2020 20:23 utc | 9
I am not interested in rebuttals of garbage. I am interested in genuine infomation from sources who have worked and done their job as physicians. Political bloggers are no genuine source I consider worth reading when it comes to Covid-19, including, sorry, B. who demonstrates that otherwise decent people tick off when stricken with fear.
So far I have not found one single member of the self-appointed "lockdown everything" & "wear masks" Sturmtruppen who could answer to the insights offeder by this swedish physician.
Sweden has left Covid-19 behind
Posted by: Andread | Sep 26 2020 20:31 utc | 10
Covid from a US perspective-
U.S. Govt is comprised of citizens with a high # of dual Israeli citizen passports. Politicians loyal to whom or what? Politicians do not give a flying fuck about its citizens well-being unless there is power or money to be gained from said fakery.
The U.S. health-"care" system PROFITS from illness. The U.S. health system combined with Pharmaceutical Corporations cannot, and should never be trusted to uphold the Hippocratic Oath. Profit before health is their only value.
US militarism is a for-profit business model. The war profiteers (biological, chemical, nuclear and conventional weapon manufacturers) dropped their constitutional oath for personal gain. US military cannot, and should not ever be trusted with the lives and well-being of any citizens on the planet.
Corporate Media are for profit advertising agencies tasked with selling the stories their profit masters dictate. Corporate media sells their souls daily and should never be trusted with any facet of agenda-less truth telling.
Does anyone here actually believe the US Govt, Corporations, Media or Insurance-Health-Care systems value human lives and take its citizens health as the top priority? U.S. is a toxic nation full of citizens who have turned on their own, for their own selfish gains of profit and power.
Suddenly the Govt "cares" about its citizens so much that it completely takes power in all aspects of lives to dictate just how much it cares? By destroying business, economic lives, leaving 30+ million without jobs and without financial support other than more debt and destruction.
If Americans cared about human lives, they would not be pushing toxic foods and obesity, pharmaceuticals with every conceivable side effect, permanent wars of aggression ans sanctions that murder MILLIONS globally, have the highest prison population, spend trillions on the war machine etc.
But oh yes- US politicians care about its citizens health and safety. Americans collective insanity obscures the obvious staggering hypocrisy they refuse to see.
Posted by: CitizenX | Sep 26 2020 20:33 utc | 11
Apart from being unable to debunk anything, this article only proves how little of the research you are aware of. The virus is not, and has never been more dangerous than a flu virus (which is to say dangerous for some categories of people). Across various regions the deaths have come from: chaos in the medical system, inappropriate treatments, treatment not given in time, high rate of nosocomial infections, fudged statistics. changing guidance on death certificates to prioritize covid over other serious co-morbidities, fraudulently recording care home deaths from neglect as "covid deaths" and so on.
Posted by: pq | Sep 26 2020 20:36 utc | 12
And about the lying bit. Covid 19 is complicated. That means that the chaotic period where smart people disagree vehemently is fairly long, so for many claims a lot of authoritative people will dissent .
On top of that there are trust issues. Offguardian is driven by distrust of power centers. People combine their own laborious thinking with their judgement about who is trustworthy. So offguardian will gravitate to dissenting authoritative people. This explains better where Offguardian ends up than them 'lying'.
Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Sep 26 2020 20:40 utc | 13
A rise in covid-cases in France.True.But their practically all a-symptomatic,and the result of more and more testing.No casualties anymore in my departement since half-july.
Now the government closes all bars and restaurants in the region of Marseille,where cases are diminishing.A lot of mayors and regional officials are calling for civil obedience.I think it is a trick to make regions calling for secession,in order to install a new kind of european union ,not consisting of nations ,but of regions.This could be the first step.
Posted by: willie | Sep 26 2020 20:42 utc | 14
And in Wuhan there is no quarantine anymore,no lockdown,no masks.
Life seems to be back to normal,with people having fun in discothèques,and dancing close.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/nightclubs-wuhan-packed-coronavirus-epicentre-22712888
Posted by: willie | Sep 26 2020 20:48 utc | 15
Posted by: CitizenX | Sep 26 2020 20:33 utc | 14
The way I like to put it: "You cannot simultaneously maximize both profit and quality".
To have a high quality product, you have to sacrifice some profit. As we all know who live here, this is un-American. We used to make some of the best stuff on earth, but Raygun fixed that, and Clinton nailed it down, now all we sell is bullshit. Then Bush let our infrastructure rot so he could destabilize the Middle East and pick fights with most of Asia. Genius.
Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 26 2020 20:49 utc | 16
Yes who can we trust ? Polatians, scientists, the media ?
Look I’ll tell you who to trust, trust reality ! Open your eyes that is how to find the truth, reality never lies.
—————-
Stop right now and consider what is about to hit us ! Winter coming on, relaxing the restrictions(deliberately). The money they had first time around gone, your money given to there curupt freands !
This is the dead cat bounce !!
Wake up and save yourselves and your love ones.
Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 26 2020 20:52 utc | 17
Consider this ———
What would have happened if we had not locked down when we did (granted it was to little to late)
If you prevent an crises it had to predict WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPEND !
That fact works in favour of the misguided the ignorant and the downright psychopathic
Factor this in to your thinking.
AGAIN WHAT WOULD HAVE HAPPEND up to this time.
If these nay sayers had got ther way.
Don’t beleave them now.
Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 26 2020 21:06 utc | 18
A cesspool of deniers here.
Nice try, b.
It is *not* just the flu.
Posted by: katyusha | Sep 26 2020 21:07 utc | 19
@ Bemildred | Sep 26 2020 20:49 utc | 20 who wrote
"
... We used to make some of the best stuff on earth, but Raygun fixed that, and Clinton nailed it down, now all we sell is bullshit.
"
But we get the highest price for that bullshit.....we have the best and greatest bullshit, just ask Trump...../snark
The only Covid observation I have about the US is that the psyche of Americans is so brainwashed into the left/right meme and addicted to churning of the Mighty Wurlitzer (MSM) that mental health failures/deaths/suicides associated with Covid fear could be significant. Look at the level of conflicting information and evolution of response in the US....its criminal.
Add to the stress in the US that Wall Street is being obviously bailed out while Main Street is going bankrupt with evictions coming soon....and we still haven't seen the October Surprise yet.....more pre (s)election fun.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 26 2020 21:08 utc | 20
I don’t see where he cites evidence the lockdowns work. This same post could have been written in defense of shaking rattles at patients.
Posted by: David G | Sep 26 2020 21:08 utc | 21
Deep down we all know that demonising people who disagree with us is not the path to wisdom.
Calling someone a covidiot means you do not have to consider anything they say - because we already know they are stupid - no, not just stupid, they are really selfish, morally inferior, dare I say less than human - yes, subhuman, and you know what that means - what can we do to someone who is less than human? Anything we want!
That was a not very subtle insinuation that calling people Covidiots is part of the way along a scale that end in bad parts of history. No-one wants to be a nazi or a totalitarian, so please let's not start down that path.
Posted by: Deltaeus | Sep 26 2020 21:20 utc | 22
And the countries that have successfully contained the spread of the disease, like Germany, Denmark, New Zealand, and Australia, are going to have to stay in lockdown for at least another year, and possibly several years, if they don’t want to develop herd immunity the natural way."
Posted by: Andreas | Sep 26 2020 20:13 utc | 7
There is no lockdown in China currently, its economy is back to business.
It is the best performing world's economy this year and actually gained in relative terms compared to the other countries.
GDP 2020
Sweden -6 %
China +2 %
Posted by: Passer by | Sep 26 2020 21:27 utc | 23
Few problems... the main one being that “b’s” whole article is a hatchet job on a straw man.
Thing I can’t work out is whether: you are scared because you’re old; you are getting paid; or you have been replaced.
Posted by: Rae | Sep 26 2020 21:31 utc | 24
The cases began to rise in Britain around August 8, if b is right the number of deaths should have started to increase from around September 8 (if not earlier with a four weeks lag), yet nothing of this sort has happened, the number of deaths in no way matches the rate of case increases since the beginning of August.
Why?
Posted by: Baron | Sep 26 2020 21:34 utc | 25
Compare their own 'official numbers' against average mortality rate for almost any given year. It's like the just cut and spliced from previous statistics and called it by a fancy new name. Use cdc stats, who stats, any year you like, glibal, nationak...
Knock yourself out...
Deltaeus @ 26
Your comment is pure psychological projection. An insight into your mind and agenda !
b’s whole post has a theme of keeping people safe ! You turned that fact upside down.
Whilst your agenda must clearly be about encouraging people to ignore the obveous danger, and expose them and family ect to illness, not to mention total strangers !
Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 26 2020 21:45 utc | 27
CDC even had to publicly release 'corrections' last week.
The tests are screwed too. Don't even isolate an identifiable organism.
That's ok though, because they still collect revenue from insurance companies and governments for each test (billable, you know).
Sorry dude.
At the end of the day, Covid is basically a test. It's a simple question, really:
Are you a fucking sociopath?
All the people who're ready to gamble with the lives of others, because covid measures are "bad for business" or are just inconvenient to them, are deep down a bunch of fucking sociopaths. Off-Guardian and all the murderous deniers here around are all, every single one of them, fucking sociopaths. All the politicians (like Bolsonaro), experts (Ioannidis, Tegnell, to some extent Raoult) and other important and influential people who claim this is no biggie, a hoax or an evil plot are just a bunch of fucking sociopaths. And when this is all over, the entier latter group of people should be put on trial for mass-murder.
What these fucking morons never discuss is that "herd immunity" means incapacitating 10% of your entire people at best for 6 months, at worst for life, considering the numerous long-term issues covid brings to plenty of survivors. It's not just the death that matters, it's also the nasty side-effects.
As for the "fear kills people" bullshit argument, B could've added that there are plenty of Western countries with mandatory mask-wearing; if it was fear factor that killed most people back in March, how come fear-inducing mask-wearing hasn't killed people this summer?
Posted by: Clueless Joe | Sep 26 2020 21:47 utc | 30
Any discussion on this article on off-Guardian that debates the current death statistics in the UK?
Even with the 'second wave of PCR forced cases due to more testing', deaths are at 1/20th!
Why?
I've only been reading b for 2 years, so may be speaking out of turn, but this virus is weak. It takes out those with 6-12 months to live, Some months early. Have you considered any definition of QALY?
The modelers (not scientists) say Africa has not enough old people, but still point to millions of deaths.
Where. Are. They.
Where are the bodies strewn across the streets of Gaza?
Or any other poor country? - they still have enough old people for some gruesome MSM $$ click-bait! But whee??
On PCR as a diagnostic tool, I trust Kary Mullis over you.
On lockdonwns killing - no, it's not the economy, stupid. This part is just so dumb, just like with the efficacy of HCQ, I will never expect you to retract your stupidity. Sadly.
I will therefore keep searching for voices, honest, and willing to acknowledge error. I'm not sure you're there yet overall, goodbye.
Posted by: Ilya G Poimandres | Sep 26 2020 21:56 utc | 31
Over on the Unz Review blog, someone identifying as 'jus'sayin' has this to say:
"I’m posting variations on the following wherever I can, because I think it is critical to make the distinction between infection with SARS-COV-2 and the disease, Covid-19, which current data suggest presents in only a small fraction of those infected with SARS-COV-2:
There is a clear distinction between becoming infected with the SARS-COV-2 virus and having any symptoms of Covid-19, let alone a serious or fatal case. Infection with SARS-COV-2 is a necessary but not sufficient condition for exhibiting symptoms of Covid-19. As an extreme illustration, the local news outlets in my area are rife with accounts of how thousands of returning college students are testing positive for SARS-COV-2. No one has seen fit to remark that very few if any of these have developed even a mild case of Covid-19.
This pattern suggests that a very large proportion of the population has a natural immunity to Covid-19 in the sense that they are susceptible to SARS-COV-2 infection but not any serious consequences from such an infection. The data I’ve seen suggest that the proportion of the population with this natural immunity is significantly higher than 70%, perhaps even close to 90%. I suspect that such immunity to Covid-19 (not infection by SARS-COV-2) is due to some combination of genetics and prior exposure to other pathogens.
This observation has obvious policy implications. We might well be better off, socially, economically, politically, and even from the public health perspective letting the current of SARS-COV-2 infections burn its natural way through the population. My back of the envelope calculations suggest that the end result will be a number of excess deaths not proportionally exceeding those associated with the 1968 Hong Kong Flu pandemic. Over a half century ago the world got through that pandemic without any drastic policies based solely on public health concerns.
I have some limited expertise in this area. I’m a Ph.D. with over a quarter of a century of off-again-on-again experience conducting epidemiological analyses in various fields. My epi modeling of the spread of AIDS back in 1990 generated estimates that proved an order of magnitude better, i.e. lower, than Dr. Fauci’s early and politically motivated projections. I ended the last fifteen years of my professional life working with the title of Epidemiologist in my state’s Department of Public Health.”
Commenting further on the 2nd wave he adds:
"I think it highly likely that there is a degree of immunity conferred by previous exposure to infections, and also that the severe effects are felt mostly by those with previous health vulnerabilities, of which obesity is an important contributing factor.
If so, the increase in tested cases of the virus will not translate into as many deaths as in the first wave of infections, and this should be apparent in about 28 days time".
Who's right? b or jus'sayin'?
Posted by: Baron | Sep 26 2020 22:02 utc | 32
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pic/articles/PMC7456194/
The link is to a randomized controlled double blind trial. Study at Spanish hospital, the text is in English so all who come here could read it. Only necessary to read the first few pages, which are drafted for a general audience. Describes an extremely simple, trivial cost, extremely effective covid therapy. Study was done on patients already hospitalized for covid and thus avoids the early intervention required with HCQ, or belief in such.
A simple web search for the therapy described will bring many pages of hits, all suggesting positive outcomes. Study cited is the only formal controlled study this commenter is aware of. Doesn’t matter, the study cited is very unusually statistically significant.
Whenever someone tells you There Is No Alternative assume you are being screwed. The endless despair that comes with There Is No Treatment is ridiculous.
Living in a covid hotspot I do finally know two friends who had and who have survived the disease. One weighed 300 pounds (135 kg) when he was hospitalized. The other was his wife, who is the recipient of a liver transplant. Two other friends are now suicides so please do not tell me lockdowns cause no harm.
Posted by: oldhippie | Sep 26 2020 22:02 utc | 33
I wish B would get back on side. I don’t know why he trusts Governments and MSM on this, but he correctly calls them out on so many other issues. Even above he brings up the pre Iraq-war lying that went on - doesn’t he notice that it is largely same news organizations pumping Covid?
Posted by: Chris C | Sep 26 2020 22:04 utc | 34
in the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back was the straw the cause? The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country’s coronavirus fatalities, finding that just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions.
a team from the Indiana University Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health and the Indiana University School of Medicine...For the overall non-institutionalized population in Indiana, the IFR came out to be 0.26 percent. In other words, for every 1000 people in the community who had gotten infected, an estimated 2.6 ended up dying. The average age at death was 76.9 years.
Covid-19: death rate is 0.66% and increases with age, study estimates
BMJ 2020; 369 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1327 (Published 01 April 2020)
John Ioannidis
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253: Results 36 studies (43 estimates) were identified with usable data to enter into calculations and another 7 preliminary national estimates were also considered for a total of 50 estimates. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.222% to 47%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 1.63% and corrected values ranged from 0.00% to 1.31%. Across 32 different locations, the median infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.24%). Most studies were done in pandemic epicenters with high death tolls. Median corrected IFR was 0.10% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rate less than the global average (<73 deaths per million as of July 12, 2020), 0.27% in locations with 73-500 COVID-19 deaths per million, and 0.90% in locations exceeding 500 COVID-19 deaths per million. Note in July the death rate in vietnam was 0.0% but later look finds that 35 people in Vietnmam have died out of a population of 95 million
Basically the infection fatality rates are all estimates so off guardian picked to say one of the lowest - but not a lie
Can J Infect Dis Med Microbiol. 2006 Nov-Dec; 17(6): 330–336.
doi: 10.1155/2006/152612
PMCID: PMC2095096
PMID: 18382647
An Outbreak of Human Coronavirus OC43 Infection and Serological Cross-reactivity with SARS Coronavirus
These findings underscore the virulence of human CoV-OC43 in elderly populations and confirm that cross-reactivity to antibody against nucleocapsid proteins from these viruses must be considered when interpreting serological tests for SARS-CoV. These findings underscore the virulence of human CoV-OC43 in elderly populations and confirm that cross-reactivity to antibody against nucleocapsid proteins from these viruses must be considered when interpreting serological tests for SARS-CoV.
Yes this is SAR not Sars Cov2 but...SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells in healthy donors and patients with COVID-19
Download PDF
Article
Published: 29 July 2020
SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells in healthy donors and patients with COVID-19
Julian Braun, Lucie Loyal, […]Andreas Thiel
Nature (2020) Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused the rapidly unfolding coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic1,2. Clinical manifestations of COVID-19 vary, ranging from asymptomatic infection to respiratory failure. The mechanisms determining such variable outcomes remain
unresolved. Here, we investigated SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein (S)-reactive CD4+ T cells in peripheral blood of patients with COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2-unexposed healthy donors (HD). We detected SARS-CoV-2 S-reactive CD4+ T cells in 83% of patients with COVID-19 but also in 35% of HD. S-reactive CD4+ T cells in HD reacted primarily to C-terminal S epitopes, which show a higher homology to spike glycoproteins of human endemic coronaviruses, compared to N-terminal epitopes. S-reactive T cell lines generated from SARS-CoV-2-naive HD responded similarly to C-terminal S of human endemic coronaviruses 229E and OC43 and SARS-CoV-2, demonstrating the presence of S-cross-reactive T cells, probably generated during past encounters with endemic coronaviruses. The role of pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactive T cells for clinical outcomes remains to be determined in larger cohorts. However, the presence of S-cross-reactive T cells in a sizable fraction of the general population may affect the dynamics of the current pandemic, and has important implications for the design and analysis of upcoming COVID-19 vaccine trials.
and: Targets of T Cell Responses to SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus in Humans with COVID-19 Disease and Unexposed Individuals T cell responses are focused not only on spike but also on M, N, and other ORFs...
T cell reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 epitopes is also detected in non-exposed individuals
the off guardian article said - An immense majority (95%) of fatal evolutions happen in old and frail individuals with premorbidities, with an "average age of death at or above 80 years old" (The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5.)
b. says - half of the total Covid-19 fatalities, not 95%, were "at or above 80 years old" this is true but not what off guardian says it does not say "95% of fatalities, were "at or above 80 years old". off guardian says old and frail - even the CDC says 94% of deaths occurred with other causes and conditions -
Posted by: gepay | Sep 26 2020 22:14 utc | 35
Here's a simpler and more direct debunking of the COVIDiots' "theory":
How lethal is COVID-19 compared to cancer, accidents, flu and other causes? The case of Europe
The data is beyond reasonable doubt:
At its worst, COVID-19 killed almost twice as many Europeans per day as cancer – but the latest figures show the fatality rate is back down below accidental death and slightly above pneumonia and diabetes.
Just to give you an idea of the mortality of the COVID-19 at its peak (i.e. without lockdown, or when the lockdown is at its worst): there are more than 600 cancers (cancer is not a disease, but a family of diseases) in our present medical literature. And this number will only rise, as it is certain there are even more types of cancer that the medical scientists are studying right now as we post.
COVID-19 killed, on a per day basis, in a six-month time frame, almost twice as more than 600 diseases put together. Cancer is certainly a comorbidity, but COVID-19 is certainly potentially fatal without it.
Now let's see when its at its bottom:
That EU28 figure of 0.75 takes COVID-19 back below several ongoing Eurostat groupings: ischaemic heart disease (2.07 daily deaths per million), nervous system disease (1.16) and accidents (0.87). However, the pandemic is still killing more Europeans than pneumonia (0.7) and diabetes (0.61), approximately twice as many as liver disease (0.39), around three times as many as suicide (0.28) and five times as many as transport accidents (0.15).
So, as the first wave receded; as the healthcare systems became better (better expertise by the medical personnel); as the masses became more disciplined, COVID-19 mortality lowered more than 15-fold to "just" 0.75 - below all of these death causes quoted above.
However:
Across the EU28, 0.025 people per day die of flu, compared to 0.75 per day on the most recent COVID-19 figures. That makes the pandemic around 30 times more lethal than flu – and that's at its current levels: using the peak figures cited above, COVID-19 killed more than 515 times as many people per day as influenza.
This is beyond margins of error. At its lowest (lockdown + receding wave), COVID-19 still kills 30 times more than the common flu. At its peak, it kills a staggering 515 times more. There's no sugar coating on it.
The source, by the way is the sanctified Eurostat - the bureau every European uses for all the kind of data they need on the subcontinent.
The "comorbidity thesis" is also completely blown out of the water: as the Eurostat data shows, people didn't stop dying of other things just because the COVID-19 appeared in town. The deaths of cancer, suicide, traffic accidents, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, neurological diseases etc. etc. are still there: it's not that the extra deaths by COVID-19 came at the expense of other deaths - they piled up on the already existing deaths.
This is something the petite-bourgeoisie (including many commenting here) don't seem to understand: the COVID-19 deaths and treatment are straining the State; they represent an extra expenditure to the national and regional governments, that is, in addition to the other causes of death. The COVID-19 pandemic represents a subtraction of the national wealth, not a simple accountancy exchange. Opening up business, having business as usual, won't make you go back to business as usual; on the contrary: it will just deepen economic decline and bankrupt (and kill) even more people.
To make things even worse: these are European data. It's what capitalism has best to offer in human support and healthcare. Imagine what is happening in the Third World and the laissez-faire countries (USA, Australia, UK et al). This thing will ravage India (as I predicted since the beginning of the pandemic here).
Ok so how many of you herd immunity types here are from ———
Atlantic council ?
Integrity initiative?
Israeli lobby groups ?
Hell this reminds me of what poor Jeremy Corbyn went through.
What don’t kill us makes us stronger !
———
Ok so let’s see if I can catch you out.
If you lot are genuine ( no conflict of interest)
Why don’t you just quietly get on with getting your selves infected ? Why are you so determined, so evangelical in persuading others to join your herd immunity delusion?
Oh and that question isn’t retorical.
Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 26 2020 22:39 utc | 37
@ Chris C 38 wrote "I wish B would get back on side. I don’t know why he trusts Governments and MSM on this, but he correctly calls them out on so many other issues. Even above he brings up the pre Iraq-war lying that went on - doesn’t he notice that it is largely same news organizations pumping Covid?"
Chris C raises a legitimate point. Why is the existence of Covid 19 more credible? Maybe because Covid 19 is a global phenomena? It's affected a variety of countries which can agree on practically nothing else. So while we might legitimately be suspicious if Covid 19 was only being reported by the governments of the US and its vassals,the fact that countries like China, Russia and Iran have also been effected by Covid 19 strongly suggests its not just an invented rumor. The fact that the scientific investigation of Covid 19, and research to create a vaccine is ongoing outside of the corporate laboratories of the Western drug companies is another indication that this isn't a complete hoax.
Posted by: Fnord13 | Sep 26 2020 22:43 utc | 38
Posted by: vk | Sep 26 2020 22:20 utc | 40
India is looking spectacular, they will catch us soon. But very low mortality in the numbers at WorldOMeter, seems odd.
--
There are a variety of explanations for the declining mortality we see in the numbers bandied about. I track them primarily to track how the pandemic is going, but not expecting them to be very precise.
But anyway some reasons for mortality to decline:
Accrued skill and knowledge in how best to treat it, shared globally from what I can tell too.
Weeding out of the susceptible in places where its had a run.
It's running wild in younger populations now.
Old people are all up to speed and protecting themselves.
The rich have all retreated to their retreats, where they only infect each other (and the servants).
Government lying.
Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 26 2020 23:02 utc | 39
Another question to the bogus herd immunity commenters ——-
So if your partner dies of this contagious virus or perhaps your child, would you then regret your present stance ?
You see statistics are dreadfully impersonal, detatched from the human loss and family suffering.
I often wonder of all the people with your view,, who did pass it on to kill one of their own loved ones. Why do we rarely here them admit their mistake ! Shame probably.
Have some foresight.
Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 26 2020 23:10 utc | 40
B, I'm sorry the comments are mostly such a cesspool. I used to read Off-Guardian, since I'm all in favor of someone taking shots at that horrible neo-liberal rag, but I had to stop when Off-G got on their "it's just like a cold; it's all a fake" train. The ability of people to take in statistical or scientific information is unfortunately very limited, it seems.
COVID is still dangerous although treatment protocols seem to be improving, as evidenced by lower mortality rates. However, these improvements could easily break down in any region where the case load exceeds available medical capacity.
Posted by: worldblee | Sep 26 2020 23:23 utc | 41
b bothers not to link to his alleged proof, just his musings.
Posted by: zee | Sep 26 2020 23:30 utc | 42
"That was a not very subtle insinuation that calling people Covidiots is part of the way along a scale that end in bad parts of history. No-one wants to be a nazi or a totalitarian..."
Posted by: Deltaeus | Sep 26 2020 21:20 utc | 26
...
Unfortunately yes they do.
How many choose to Obey? How many decide to Resist?
"They must know more than us..."
"They must be smarter to be in that position of Authority..."
"I was just following orders..."
I can find you cutting edge scientific Data with stunning graphics to support YOUR cause, any cause.
Call 1-800-I want to be right. Call now, operators standing by.
Posted by: CitizenX | Sep 26 2020 23:32 utc | 43
the worst part of the thing is that I liked and trusted the off-guardian to at least offer to tell me glimpses of th truth. One more web site/blog I have to stop visiting. I recently got disgusted by the Faker I mean The Saker. Man, the web sites I can truth to at least tell me some truths are dropping like flies.
Who do people here read? Serious question.
Posted by: Hoyeru | Sep 26 2020 23:53 utc | 44
Great article, b. Everyone else is a moron. But I already knew that.
Posted by: worldblee | Sep 26 2020 23:23 utc | 46
Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 26 2020 23:02 utc | 44
Yes, your reasons are the ones I see repeated by most medical professionals looking at the death rate. It has nothing to do with the basic impact of the virus on people with co-morbidities as b correctly pointed out. I've repeatedly said the same thing as b over the months, i.e., how many Americans *have* co-morbidities. Without a lockdown, we'd probably have a million dead by now.
I have to get a root canal done on one of my teeth (due to increased pain), so I have to go in for a COVID-19 test in the next two weeks before getting the work done. That will give me a chance to see if I've ever been exposed, but is otherwise worthless. The test is supposed to be "good for ten days" - which makes no sense because I could get exposed on the day after the test and be contagious five days later. Then on top of that I already went in for the temporary filling after the exploration - and I didn't need a test before doing that!
Just another example of how incompetent everyone is on this pandemic.
There was a moron over at Antiwar.com who last April said that prediction of 200,000 dead was wrong and it was going to be "closer to 200 than 200,000." Called on that, the idiot claimed that as long as the final death toll was "under 100,000", he would still "technically" be correct. I don't expect that moron to apologize for being so wrong, as we are now over 200,000 and headed for 400,000 before end of January.
People like that and some of the morons here are *why* I despise the human race.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Sep 26 2020 23:55 utc | 45
You are playing fast and loose with with your "IFR" calculation. First you pick NY City, the worst hit place on the planet, then you fail to choose your numerator and denominator with care. Many of the deaths associated with the virus are questionable, the deaths align with natural mortality which makes monkey business a serious concern. There are both financial and political motive in inflating the numbers, so proceed with caution. But your estimation of the number infected is also wrong. You can not use seroprevalence as a proxy for infection rates because not everyone infected develops antibodies, and as a recent Japanese study shows, antibodies fade rapidly. In the study they saw an 81% drop in 4 weeks. The memory cells in the bone marrow still contain the ability to make new antibodies, but in the absence of infection they fade. Thus, You are making a serious over estimation of the IFR, which is closer to 0.2 - 0.3 percent, and it varies enormously across age group and medical history...as well as location. There are many other problems in your article as well, for example you quote 80% immunity as if it wasnt pulled from someones nether regions...which it was.
Posted by: why | Sep 27 2020 0:01 utc | 46
Rae @ 28
b was replaced early in the Covid game back in March 2020. The very first blog he wrote on the Covid affair was very much that he thought it overblown. Immediately after that, he changed his tune. Moon of Alabama has been co-opted by the Deep State. Whether the Deep State writes all his columns now, or b has been cowed by fear on the Covid issue and still writes other blogs is unknown to me. However, Covid is the only important topic, all else is distraction. Covid is the issue that will allow the Powers That Be (PTB) to cull the masses and then bag and tag the rest. This is the only thing that the PTB cares about. All else is noise.
Posted by: JasonT | Sep 27 2020 0:32 utc | 47
Hint:
Sars cv2 fatalities in the US:
25,000 Americans died in the Revolutionary War, so these fatalities are eight times the death toll of that conflict.
15,000 Americans died in the War of 1812, so these fatalities are thirteen times the death toll of that conflict.
214,000 soldiers on both sides were killed in the American Civil War, so these fatalities nearly equal the military death toll of that conflict. (Another 450,000 people died in that war of disease and other causes. If Americans reelect Trump, it is entirely possible that the death toll will equal the entirety of the Civil War before it is all over).
116,000 Americans died in WW I, so these fatalities are nearly twice the death toll of that conflict.
405,399 Americans died in WW II, so these fatalities over six months are about half the death toll of that conflict, which lasted 4 years.
36,516 Americans died in the Korean War, so these fatalities are about five times of the death toll in that conflict.
58,209 Americans died in the Vietnam War, so these fatalities are about three and a half times those of Americans that conflict. (A million to two million Vietnamese died, and we are approaching 10 to 20% of that death toll).
2,977 Americans and US residents, including Muslim-Americans were killed by 19 terrorists on September 11, 2001, so these fatalities are sixty-seven times the death toll of that attack.
4,497 Americans died in the Iraq War, so these fatalities are forty-four times the death toll of that conflict.
2,216 Americans have died in the nearly 20-year-long Afghanistan War, so these fatalities are ninety times greater than that conflict.
And this was few days ago-- the numbers are increasing
Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Sep 27 2020 0:33 utc | 48
@why 51
Quite right.
First the demographics of NY are nothing like anywhere else.
2nd the very idea of this ultra infectious virus only catching 21% of the population with a fully working metro system is a joke.
We know that for every 2 people with active anti-bodies there is also 2 with active T-cells but no anti-bodies.
We know that children are mostly not susceptible to the virus at all, and it seems pretty certain that many adults (of all ages but especially young) are not susceptible either.
When b says IFR he means deaths as a percentage of proven infections. Which isn't a useful measure at all, and certainly isn't what anyone would use for Flu or was meant when the 5% IFR claims of around March were being claimed.
Excess deaths is fair enough as a measure but there is a catch.
Viruses ebb and flow. Countries that have low excess deaths one year are likely to have high deaths the next. The stock of weak and ready to die is much greater is some countries than others. Excess deaths have been high in some areas and low in others not because of differences in Covid infections this year but because of differences in Flu infections the previous year.
Living in a big city we all know we had it long ago, back in the days when there were more positive tests than now but about 8% of current tests. Back when anyone with symptoms but no urgent need was told to lock themselves away and on no account seek a test. Back when deaths were 100x current levels. When schools and Metros and buses and offices were open and no one wore a mask.
Such a shame that b, so brilliant on 99 different topics, gets this one so wrong.
Posted by: Michael Droy | Sep 27 2020 0:35 utc | 49
It is hard to argue with people who insist that covid-19 is just like the flu or a bad cold. There is no comparison. In the 5 burroughs of NYC the excess number of deaths (i.e. above the previous 5 year average) for the months of march, april and may was 0.17% of the total population -- do note, this is not the case fatality rate but total number of people living there. We have to go back to 1918 to see this level of mortality.
I am not surprised to also see people also piping up and denying that this coronavirus is not the cause of covid-19. There were also many virus deniers maintaining the HIV was not the cause of AIDS. That debate trickled away after the correct cocktail of antiviral drugs were found that greatly reduced mortality. The deniers will likely never be convinced but the will just slowly wither away after an effective vaccine or antiviral agent is found.
Ilya at 35 is a good example of denier ignorance -- Mullis most certainly has not commented on the covid-19 PCR test given that he died two years ago, 18 months before the current test was developed.
Posted by: ToivoS | Sep 27 2020 1:03 utc | 50
why | Sep 27 2020 0:01 utc | 51:
NY City, the worst hit place on the planetJust if anyone’s willing to take a brief time out on the big fight: is that true? NYC was hit worse than Lombardy, or Ecuador or Peru?
Posted by: David G | Sep 27 2020 1:04 utc | 51
@Deltaeus
Sure, “my side bias” is a real thing, but in this case the concern about side is legitimate and a serious concern. We are suggesting this is about a global authoritarian control grid being actively instituted which will leave the masses hopelessly enslaved. Our suggestion is that the severity of Covid is being significantly exaggerated in order to achieve this end.
As such, there is one side which is fighting for the future of all of Humankind, and another which is engaging in an important but somewhat academic debate about how to minimize deaths during a pandemic.
The truth is we are all trying to save lives - both sides are doing this from a place of caring for others, but one of us is being deceived.
If this is a legitimate pandemic, then my side may be in the wrong, our suggestions could lead to more deaths, though this isn’t necessarily true.
If this is a ruse being used to implement a global system of social control, then the lock down proponents are leading people into a new global authoritarian control grid.
To my mind the right side here are the people fighting against the rising authoritarian state. The bad guys are the people who have engineered this whole situation - the people who are manipulating the statistics and implementing the whole agenda. The unfortunately deceived are those who have fallen for the deception, who buy into the narrative being promulgated. They are unwitting accomplices. Though they seek to help others, they have been deceived, and now they are active participants in a plot to enslave us all.
Thus, to me this is an active struggle against rising authoritarianism all over the world. There are actual sides. B used to be an ally in the fight against the authoritarian machine, in many ways he still is, but in this crucial matter he has turned against us. In fact he has come out viciously against us (using add hominem covidiot smears, straw man arguments, and unfair portrayals of our arguments in general just for example). In this sense, he is “off side”. I would really appreciate it if he would get back on side. We could really use him in this fight. Without him, the future of humanity itself may remain in jeopardy.
Posted by: Chris C | Sep 27 2020 1:17 utc | 52
Chris C | Sep 27 2020 1:17 utc | 56:
Holy crap. A human being.
Someone sign Chris C for a long-term contract right away.
Posted by: David G | Sep 27 2020 1:32 utc | 53
Andreas and Andread, looks like two trolls to me. Looking at Sweden's own monitoring tool they are having about 500 cases per day on a rising trend, its called wave 2. Who is paying all these trolls (I keep tripping over them on many different sites)? Also, the Swedish infection and death rate is way higher than its neighbours.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
Posted by: Riger Boyd | Sep 27 2020 1:36 utc | 54
Count me as a Covid sceptic. I'm a dentist - allegedly one of the highest risk groups - in a country - India - with even by the Modi regime's figures, which no sane person believes about literally anything the second highest number of cases in the world. Yet I have yet to come across a single case of a confirmed death by the virus. I'm yet to actually even meet anyone who at any point tested positive for it. That said, the Modi regime has abrogated all responsibility for combating Covid 19 to the states, so when things go wrong it's the fault of the states and not Modi. And those states of course aren't all under the regime, and the regime has a vested interest in making the opposition controlled states look bad while protecting the governments of the states it itself rules. The opposition controlled states also have a vested interest in looking good so they too manipulate their figures; for example the state of Delhi stopped testing deaths for Covid 19 until ordered to by the courts. In top of which even under normal conditions 85% of deaths in India are not certified as to cause (the number being just about 100% in the villages). As such any data, any data at all, from this country can be safely disregarded. I'm not saying the situation is better than projected, I'm not saying it's worse, I'm saying it has no relationship with reality at all.
Then there is Off Guardian. I'm as I said no believer in the official Covid 19 story. But Off Guardian also seems to imagine that the destruction of rain forests is not necessarily an ecological catastrophe. It seems to think there is no such thing as overpopulation. As such like many other originally anti imperalist sites it's dabbling in misinformation mixed with fact.
Isn't that what the literal definition of gatekeeper black propaganda is?
Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Sep 27 2020 1:42 utc | 55
B, please don't waste more time with the COVID crap - you may as well talk to a wall. Its all about ideology not facts. PS, the French test positive rate is approaching 10%, putting the lie to "its just more testing".
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Sep 27 2020 1:44 utc | 56
When will the Vaccine be ready to stop Wars of Aggression by the West?
Oh wait, maybe if enough mask wearers gave a fuck about someone other than themselves in another nation being destroyed by bombs made in Murica we wouldn't need a War Vaccine?
Don't worry about Human Nature as profiting murderers, but be very afraid of invisible Nature itself.
How about the Vaccine for Obesity?
It's not like having over half your population Obese poses any health concerns.
Toxic food, toxic medicine, toxic policies should all be overlooked.
For sure, blame the Govt and trust the Govt to keep you "safe".
Just a few more charts, data and graphs and I'll soon be on board with all this "We're In It Together" pathetic insanity.
Posted by: CitizenX | Sep 27 2020 2:28 utc | 57
Posted by: JasonT | Sep 27 2020 0:32 utc | 52
We need to start filing law suits and taking this matter to courts. This is "the plague" that is giving governments world-wide "emergency powers"?
Let's see them prove it -- a genuine state of emergency -- in a court of law. Let's nail how "precisely" are they testing, what methodology, what margines of error, etc.
Blogs, as you noted, can trivially be compromised. I have no idea if this b is the same old b, but I don't ascribe heroism to myself if visited by the state security apparatus in today's anything apparently goes world.
If governments can suspend human rights (which is what they have done) on the basis of hysterics about invisible enemies, then we are entirely lost.
Unlike the hyperbole about "raging infections" of the not-exactly-the-plauge, it is not even remotely an overstatement of dire consequences that await all of us (regardless of political views) when governments with revolving doors to international corporations can suspend human rights and establish bonafide Police States.
Right now, anyone can be taken from their home based on a famously error prone test, declared infected, confined against their will, and at some point declared "killed by Covid-19". Sorry, you can't see the body -- we have to contain the diseae. Sorry, no autopsy either. Yep, the-not-the-plauge is the reason.
But as to your original point, b is supposed to be German, right? Well, there is a committee of German lawyers who are conducting fact gethering by interviewing experts. The one session I watched delved into the details of the testing regiment. No mention of that here on MOA. But let's discuss what Russians and Brits are up to in their latest spy vs. spy games.
Posted by: conspiracy-theory | Sep 27 2020 2:33 utc | 58
And the French death rate is nowhere, putting the lie to it's alleged lethality. Use all of science, not just what pushes your agenda.
Posted by: v | Sep 27 2020 2:34 utc | 59
B, please educate yourself about T cell immunity as an additional mechanism which defeats the virus. There are two studies out of Sweden which show that in combination with antibody immunity, it is likely that public immunity levels in places like Stockholm and New York could be as high as 50%. In combination with some basic social distancing rules e.g. no large public gatherings, the virus seems to be 100 percent under control in th2ese places. So a strategy of careful isolation of the elderly, while allowing children, teens, students, young workers and those who would rather take their chances with the virus than wait for and then receive a rushed vaccine, seems to be the appropriate and most scientifically supportably response now. You must carefully consider that these draconian measures are now and will continue to lead to significant suffering and death for years to come. There is no ideal outcome. The virus is here and we must respond. I supported the harsher measures introduced by governments earlier in the year, but governments are duty bound to be nimble, flexible and develop policy based upon the latest information, not dogma and fear mongering. They must have the courage to admit that their initial response, while understandable at the time, is not now supported by all of the developing science.
There can be no serious debate. Just looks at the charts. There is herd immunity in Sweden and New York.
Posted by: Michael Makridakis | Sep 27 2020 2:41 utc | 60
No matter how much I try, I continue to have a sense that something is fishy about the COVID-19 pandemic. I have seen enough credible arguments from both camps – which are obviously contradictory. So, what should I, as a non-specialist, conclude?
Add to that the distinct phenomenon of censorship in the corporate and monopoly media of voices that do not support the official narrative. There are some very credible voices that are being blocked completely. Just one great example would be Prof. Dr. Sucharit Bhakti. Many of you may not have heard about him – he lives in Germany. Since b lives in Germany, I’d love to get b’s perspective on why Prof. Bhakti is being censored in the German mainstream media and by the authorities. I’d also like know what b thinks of Dr. Bhakti’s views.
Here I thought I’d bring up something that I had posted about a week ago soliciting your thoughts. Unfortunately, that post did not generate any response (or I may not have searched the responses diligently enough – for which I apologize). Here is what I had done…
I had looked up the total number of COVID deaths for several countries, as well as their population size (from worldometers website). Then I calculated a “COVID-19 deaths per million” metric for each country. I was stunned to see that this metric for USA is similar to that in the UK, 5x higher than in Germany, 63x higher than in Cuba, 188x higher than in China and 1,668x higher than in Vietnam! (I understand that the exact number of reported COVID-19 death can be contested for a variety of reasons but that cannot account for a difference in the “COVID-19 deaths per million” metric by several orders of magnitude).
These stunning numbers indicate to me that we are missing the boat by focusing so narrowly on the inherent lethality of SARS-CoV-2 (e.g. whether or not, and how much more lethal it is versus the flue virus). We should recognize that, strictly speaking, viruses don’t kill people. Rather they are just one factor in a long cascade of events that can ultimate kill the patient. Some of the sub-events are biological in nature (“cytokine storm”, complications due to subsequent bacterial infection, etc.), which themselves are contingent upon a host of internal factors (e.g. the strength of the patient’s immune system, comorbidities, etc.) and external factors (kinds of medical intervention, etc.).
The stunningly different mortality rates in different countries, caused by the same virus, indicate to me the presence of one or more invisible elephants. These elephants are invisible because we are (intentionally?) focusing on the wrong metrics, such as the number of infections and deaths in different countries, etc. (without putting them in relation to the total population). Equally unfortunately, the debate is being framed around “premature” solutions like lockdown, mask or no mask, social distancing, etc. I call them “premature” solutions because as long as the elephants remain invisible, the diagnosis of the problem is incomplete, and as such the solution are not only premature but also ought to be ineffective.
Now what are the invisible elephants, that can tip the balance of mortality by multiple orders of magnitude? Some of them could be qualities of the public health system and health care system, the nature of the political system, income inequality, cultural and social norms, etc.
My common sense tells me that the biggest bang for the buck (i.e. fighting the pandemic) would come from attacking the factors that have the biggest impact in a “cascade of events”. Those are the invisible elephants – a few of which I had listed.
Does this make sense? What other invisible elephants do you see?
Posted by: Nathan | Sep 27 2020 2:42 utc | 61
The first thing I notice in this thread is the plethora of covid deniers who either offer no evidence of thier supposition or say they do by linking to some rant which also offers no real evidence in the sense of applying a scientific method of formulating a hypothesis, conducting experiments to affirm the hypothesis then publishing their data so that others can replicate the experiments & prove their claim.
The classic most forlorn example of this is 'David Shinn' at #3 whose only link is to exactly the same rant on an obscure blog - that rant is identical in that it also has no links to any evidence of his ridiculous claim. Of course people shit out viruses but identifying that as the sole means of transmission is not only foolish it is dangerous. The early stages of this virus spread was characterised everywhere by health workers becoming infected, health workers who were unfamiliar with PPE protocols used masks which were ill suited to the shape of their faces eg initially most hospitals began with one size fits all facemasks.
Now after the infection and deaths of too many health workers and the intervention of their unions much more care & knowledge is being used to ensure health workers can access a mask that is correct for them. Their is no point in spending up on an N95 (which has to be frequently replaced like all masks) if it doesn't fit correctly and you have gaps letting unfiltered air in & out. In that case a cloth mask from an old T shirt may provide better protection.
As correct PPE procedures have been adopted there has been a concomitant reduction in the infection rates for health care workers.
I had intended going through all the posts by the covid deniers but I have a life to live. It is Sunday here in Aotearoa & I'm running late because today is the first day of daylight saving. Every Sunday I knock up a big feed for whoever drops around and it seems there are other kiwis more onto the time shift than I, they have started arriving & I'm still in my pyama pants! Oops.
Anyway we can have lots of people around here because we had complete competent lockdowns from early in the epidemic and the stop that caused on covid spread gave us the time to develop and refine a trace and testing system backed up by communal quarantines for entire whanau of infected people which means that any outbreaks are prevented from spreading fairly rapidly.
Generally this has worked very well, the sole major exception being when some bible basher/propagandist for a fairly fringe xtian superstition was concerned about the drop in tithes that would accrue from his sheeple going into quarantine because some of the congregation were infected, 'preached' that covid was 'no problem 'just the flu' and the virus went through this 'church' plus the schools and workplaces his sheeple attended like a dose of salts.
The coppers had a serious talk to this self appointed community leader and the infection pool was mopped up after some totally unnecessary deaths.
In my world the cause of this would have been prosecuted, but this weak arsed neolib government didn't want to get offside with the xtian minority in an election year - no one has been held to account.
I mention this as an example of the damage these deniers do cause and why I hold them in contempt. The motives usually boil down to self interest.
My son has just given me a nudge so I have to go and feed some friends.
I trust some others will also analyse then refute the nonsense in this thread.
ps there are likely to be typos here formatting on this site word wrap especially is non existant so editing in a hurry is not possible sorry.
Posted by: Debsisdead | Sep 27 2020 2:47 utc | 62
I used to think it was fake but 2 of my cousins who are nurses got it, the yonger one (28) feelt like a mild f3ver and couldn't smell but the other (58) now got a lung infection so she in hospital
Posted by: Bob | Sep 27 2020 2:49 utc | 63
Why is it so difficult for some people to grasp that the novel coronavirus/Covid-19 is real, highly infectious with potentially very serious consequences AND that the current pandemic is being used by governments and various billionaires and their lobbies (Gates, Musk, WEF etc.) to advance surveillance capitalism, the global surveillance state and a tech driven bio-capitalist dystopia?
The Off-G crowd CAN see that there are powerful forces using Covid-19 narratives to manipulate the public and launch a nefarious global plutocracy but they discredit themselves by rambling on about how the whole pandemic is a manufactured hoax. Furthermore, they dismiss all arguments and points of view that don’t buy into that ‘hoax’ delusion. Not very helpful, particularly when there is significant common ground to be explored.
MoA is not pushing baseless corona fantasies but it is strange that b NEVER talks about how the pandemic is being weaponized and used as a form of social control and as a launchpad for a globalized techno surveillance society/ bio-capitalist dystopia. It’s a topic that’s very relevant to the geopolitical themes this blog is known for discussing. So it’s a bit puzzling why b ignores the political aspect of the pandemic but feels the need to debunk corona crap when there are already tons of sites doing this.
Anyway that’s my take on this “standoff.”
Posted by: Daniel | Sep 27 2020 2:50 utc | 64
There's no need for fancy settlement of issues between covidphobes and covidiots. Virtually all covidiots love and tout the "swedish case" as a runaway success.
So, why dont all those who hate masks and lockdowns visit or migrate to sweden. This should not be a serious problem as sweden welcomes with open arms -- and open legs -- macho terrorists.
We really want to see sweden perform with "responsible" visitors all over the place with no masks.
In fact, since fanatical covidiots already say sweden has reached "herd immunity", whatever that means for covid19, they should also welcome tourists and immigrants with this infamous disease. This should be absolutely edifying.
Posted by: Becmi | Sep 27 2020 3:10 utc | 65
Long time reader, first time commenter here. MOA has been my go-to blog since about 2016 for all things geopolitical (along with The Saker's). And I always found the comments section to be almost as valuable as the posts themselves, in part because of the complementary information offered, and in part because of the erudite back-and-forth of regular commenters. Sadly, when COVID-19 reared its ugly head, the quality of the comments has declined drastically; it's almost unrecognizable.
It seems that some have overdosed on conspiracy theories. For them, *everything* is part of some nefarious plan of the "elite". And they think this because they are unable to accept the world for what it is: an infinitely and intrinsically complex reality too big for any one person to grasp in toto. So instead, as a coping mechanism for their failure to understand it all, they take refuge in simplistic stories of good vs evil. For some, their enemies are Satanists hell-bent on destroying Christianity; for others, they are Communists/Socialists/Fascists out to annihilate their sacred and absolute individual rights; and so on. There are no middle positions in this way of thinking; no nuances and no chance events.
So COVID-19 cannot be just one of those surprise events that Nature likes to throw every now and then as a sort of correction for an excess. No. It has to be part of the *plan*! And this conviction sets in very early on. Even before the science has been allowed to settle on the matter, these overdosed conspiracy theorists will have already figured it all out. From their armchairs, asking a few leading questions, they will have managed to incorporate this elusive natural phenomenon into their little story: it's a ploy by the Democrats/Chinese/Bill Gates/The One World Government/etc., etc. And they'll be so sure of themselves, like the old lady from Spain who thought that the name "corona" (lit. "crown" in Spanish) was meant to mock the Spanish crown!
But being skeptical is not the same thing as being a critical thinker. Asking "cui bono" at every turn does not automatically make you more insightful. If your aim is to fit our complex and very often confusing world into your black-and-white framework, you are failing miserably at doing intellectual work. B has written brilliantly against The Empire, and yet has the intellectual honesty to accept that it may not be lying 100% of the time (e.g. it may be begrudgingly telling the truth), especially when its bitterest enemies (e.g. Russia, China, Iran...) all confirm the reality of this new phenomenon. It has been said that wisdom is knowing how to make distinctions of things. To lump B with the enemy simply because he knows when to listen to, and when not to listen to, an official pronouncement is foolish. To have fixed, unalterable positions on anything is stupid. To be a contrarian because you despise your perceived enemies (be it the Democrats or Trump or Soros) is idiotic.
Posted by: AnalyticMinded | Sep 27 2020 4:03 utc | 66
Posted by: JasonT | Sep 27 2020 0:32 utc | 52 b was replaced early in the Covid game back in March 2020.
There are only two explanations for a post like this:
1) The poster is an utter and complete moron.
2) The poster is either an independent "troll" - or he's a paid agitator.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Sep 27 2020 4:27 utc | 67
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 27 2020 4:26 utc | 76
We're at 77 with my last post, so not going to happen. b will simply have to delete the offending post or edit the link properly.
I actually don't have a problem with this layout - my 23" desktop monitor at 1920x1080 handles it fine. I imagine laptops and smaller lower resolution monitors, however, can't.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Sep 27 2020 4:31 utc | 68
Posted by: Chris C | Sep 27 2020 1:17 utc | 56 To my mind the right side here are the people fighting against the rising authoritarian state.
Bitching on a blog is not fighting against jack squat. For that matter, no disrespect to b, but the blog isn't fighting for jack squat.
Unless you own one of the mainstream media - or you're Joe Rogan (who just got a $100 million dollar deal) - and I'm not sure about him - or a Hollywood celebrity -
and they're usually wrong - you aren't achieving anything by talking or writing. That includes me, by the way. It includes anyone
restricted to "arguing" or "debating" against the people who are responsible for the society you live in.
If you're not prepared to commit virtual or physical *crimes against the state*, you aren't actually "fighting" anything. You're just virtue-signaling.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Sep 27 2020 4:40 utc | 69
Ugh, another one of these discussions.
Going country to country, the fatality
stats are all over the place. Some are
negligible, some are super bad. The US
is one of the less fortunate countries
iin this regard.
But if you went out and infected 2/3 of
the population at random, which is what
the herd-immunity camp is willing to
accept, you can't give proper treatment
to those who need it, and 'medium' cases
become deadly.
A large US antibody study of blood collected in
the summer from dialysis patients as a quasi
random sample referenced by SCMP this weekend
found NY state highest at 33% seropositive.
So take the NY state experience and multiply by two,
roughly speaking, if 66% were infected instead of 30%,
in a let-it-take-its-course scenario. Then scale up
from the state's 20 million population.
Some people might be willing to accept a serious possibility
of that scenario. Not interested in arguing, but it's a good
thing they don't get to make policy.
Posted by: ptb | Sep 27 2020 4:41 utc | 70
Posted by: Roger Boyd | Sep 27 2020 1:44 utc | 60 B, please don't waste more time with the COVID crap -
you may as well talk to a wall. Its all about ideology not facts.
Agree completely. There's a reason for being factually correct, but it's useless against morons.
It's "all cognitive dissonance all the time." That pretty much sums up the human condition.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Sep 27 2020 4:44 utc | 71
@rsh.. doesnt work for ipads.. still on a holiday....
ditto @70 analyticminded commentary... comment section always goes bonkers with moa covid threads..
bunch of one time only posters show up..
back in a few days...
Posted by: james | Sep 27 2020 4:49 utc | 72
Posted by: AnalyticMinded | Sep 27 2020 4:03 utc | 70 To lump B with the enemy simply because he knows when to listen to, and when not to listen to, an official pronouncement is foolish. To have fixed, unalterable positions on anything is stupid. To be a contrarian because you despise your perceived enemies (be it the Democrats or Trump or Soros) is idiotic.
You win the thread. b can close it now and I sincerely hope he does.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Sep 27 2020 5:00 utc | 73
“9% of the 1.2 million deaths in the US were due to covid.” So 108,000 Americans died from covid-19? WRONG! 108,000 Americans died WITH covid-19 (if you even believe that number, as many cases are ‘presumed’, and many tests offer up false positives). Only 6% of deaths were FROM covid, with the remaining 94% suffering from an average of 2 1/2 comorbidities. Blaming all these deaths on covid instead of the heart disease, cancer or diabetes they were already dying from is ridiculous. During the 2017-2018 flu season in the United States, there were 45 million confirmed cases. Can you imagine how many ‘deaths by flu’ would have been recorded at that time if we had used the same criteria we are using now?
Posted by: Michael K | Sep 27 2020 5:13 utc | 74
@ michael k.... faulty logic.... someone with heart disease, cancer or diabetes gets hit by a car and dies?
was it the car or not. that killed them? covid is the car is this analogy... i dont know why i bother..
Posted by: james | Sep 27 2020 5:21 utc | 75
That B should resort to ad hominem to make his point, is certainly new.
Posted by: guidoamm | Sep 27 2020 5:21 utc | 76
I have been visiting this site for years now, as your coverage of US foreign policy and deception is invaluable. However, your refusal to see the deception of their virtual "pandemic" as a domestic weapons of mass destruction is deeply disturbing. You start with ad hominem and then present the same state promoted statistics, while being incapable of interpreting new data of doctored death figures and your own eyes. Does this look like the black plague to you? Does the example of no-lockdown Sweden represent a country of covidiots? Do you approve of Australia using police-state tactics and arresting pregnant women for resisting the lockdown? You will probably never comment on those BLM covidiots rioting in the streets spreading this massive deadly pandemic. Just like the mainstream media you usually see right through, you focus on rising new cases, because you can't cite death rates anymore.
The lockdowns of healthy people with minimal chances of death as opposed to just those vulnerable never made any sense and makes less sense now. If you are supporting the unemployment of millions of Americans, the deaths of people who can't get access to health care, while empty hospitals layoff their Tik Tok nurse-heroes and the continued push to force vaccination, you are no better than the people you have railed against since I have been a reader. It is sad to watch you flail.
Posted by: Flounder | Sep 27 2020 5:33 utc | 77
Lots of binary thought, fear, polarization.
An observation: This post by b nearly parallels a post by Raul (TAE) today. I can understand Raul
getting his knickers in a twist because he craves data, and all the data at present is shite. He has
to have numbers to get anything substantial into the article.
On the other hand, b is adept at handling very slippery facts, and skilled at synthesizing answers
from patchy data.
So why are both pieces attempting to ridicule dissenters?
Also, some points for the rabid dogs:
1) Holding a particular position in this 'debate' does not automatically make you a member of some group.
2) Governments using this for the biggest smash-n-grab op I've ever seen does not mean that they cooked
the whole thing up in a think tank to keep the masses down. More likely, they all saw a window and went for
it.
3) Anybody can throw around anecdotal 'evidence' to support their views. Personally, I've known exactly 3
people who became sick from this: one of them is a rather obese 33-yo resident of NYC, one is my 72-yo mother,
and the other my 50-yo brother. None of them are dead, all said "It's bad, you don't want it." It's a small
sample, admittedly, but I haven't encountered any others that have had it in my area (Los Angeles county).
(Additional factoid - my mother contracted the bug on a river cruise in Holland last October, spent 2 of 3
weeks in her cabin)
Posted by: Dr Wellington Yueh | Sep 27 2020 5:45 utc | 78
lol, you are quoting NYT to prove something? hilarious :-D
Posted by: covid666 | Sep 27 2020 5:57 utc | 79
@ guidoamm | Sep 27 2020 5:21 utc | 86 who wrote
"
That B should resort to ad hominem to make his point, is certainly new.
"
It didn't jump out for me but I believe you are correct, thanks. Reading that b is a chain smoker early on in the Covid series
told me that b looks at this as a potential victim seriously. His ongoing coverage of it has made sense to me and
his increased sensitivity to naysayers in light of the 2nd wave of this virus seeming to be under way reflects that....it will be
interesting to see the next 4 weeks numbers of deaths.
I have always been a bit skeptical about the true nature of this virus, feeling that the results were used to cover bigger monetary rape of the
US Treasury than the 2008 debacle. As I continue to posit, we are in a civilization war and the stark difference between the way China and the
US are handling this event should be providing 2020 vision to Americans and "allies" of failing and flailing empire treatment of those under
its anti-humanistic social contract with global private finance at the core.
Think for a moment if the global private finance virus had the same level of focus, discussion and remediation unity as expressed in the
recent UNGA motion about Covid concerted efforts supported by 169 nations and opposed by 2.
The global private finance virus is the cause for the excessive Covid deaths in the West because of the priority of profit for a few
over the broader public good. Historically, the global private finance virus has killed and made life miserable for millions and continues
to do so because the public is not allowed to discuss it like Covid.
Posted by: psychohistorian | Sep 27 2020 6:04 utc | 80
Anyone taking this seriously get your supply of vitamin C, D and K ready. With some blood-thinning omega-3 supplements for good measure.
The rest of you, carry on. At least wash your damn hands.
Posted by: R | Sep 27 2020 6:08 utc | 81
The Off-Guardian is an alt-right wing steaming pile of shit. Its contributors and editors act like petulant little adolescents. It has an ugly following of readers who, if you happen to question or critique one of their articles you will be attacked ad hominem en masse in the comment section by the same herd of followers. If you love themes such as 'the Holocaust never happened' along with 'coronavirus is a government conspiracy to take away your rights' then by all means fill your head with their drivel. The editors are avid Trump supporters, or at least were in 2016. I wonder if they'll be running lots of pro-Trump articles next month? Most likely.
Posted by: deschutesmaple | Sep 27 2020 6:22 utc | 82
Sad day to find my comment deleted from this page, particularly as censorship is increasing everywhere from the corporate MSM to Social Media. I have read b for years but this topic is something many clearly disagree with him on.
Posted by: mac_408 | Sep 27 2020 7:05 utc | 83
[email protected]
This is from India. The government is suppressing death data from certain states.(ruled by ruling party).
The disease is raging as total lockdown was effected too early crippling economy. It is no lockdown now. Private hospitals are gleeful as they can charge
Astronomical amounts inspite of so-called upper limits. The hospitals are getting overwhelmed in states it is raging. People are good at fending for themselves so each one follow their own rules.
But overall it appears as if the virus spreads through congested and closed spaces. Open airy transmission through touch appears to be low. Some people appear to be naturally immune irrespective of age , may be due to subliminal exposure to covid virus.
It is best not to have a fixed notion but following best practices does prevent infection.
Rao
Posted by: Rao | Sep 27 2020 7:17 utc | 85
I'm actually with Taleb on how to react to new infectious diseases.
But now I'm starting to doubt the IFR postulated, simply because Africa has not become a complete disaster area, COVID-19 wise, as would have been expected by now from non-action and inferior health care. Why didn't it? This doesn't pass the smell test.
And there can be many statistical games played on if someone died from COVID-19 or with COVID-19, which I believe you didn't touch on, b.
--Keep up your great work!
Posted by: michael | Sep 27 2020 7:28 utc | 86
Great work! The proven facts in a short and comprehensible manner without fear-mongering or downplaying.
Just an annotation: Please avoid terms like "covidiotes". After all the sceptics are the kind of people you are trying to convince. Insulting them isn't exactly helpfull.
Posted by: m | Sep 27 2020 7:30 utc | 87
The thread nicely illustrates the fake materialism of much of the left, to wit: Materialism is accepting the truth as the speaker in a given context says, versus proper application of statistics and random variables. Off Guardian is part of a much larger trend.
One would hope that a substantive left movement would do some education in basic and intermediate math and sciences...
Posted by: Johan Meyer (2) | Sep 27 2020 7:38 utc | 88
Posted by: Rao | Sep 27 2020 7:17 utc | 85
Thank for your testimony, that's like what I had guessed was going on there. Your comments on how it spreads sound about right too. I reached the conclusion here early on that I was on my own as far as staying safe, it's been clear right along the politicians have no idea what to do and most don't care. Best regards & good luck.
Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 27 2020 7:51 utc | 89
There are at least 4 prophylactics for this virus. They work when taken early and when combined with zinc in 3 of the 4 and the 4th works a high percentage of the time when taken even after taking ill. There is also a growing body of evidence that Vitamin D prevents contracting the virus. Some studies show that zinc has the same effect.
Thus, it truly seems a waste of time to quibble over what it is, who it kills, etc., etc. It is petty to make that your focus.
This article should have been much shorter. Tout the benefits and effectiveness of these drugs and nutrients, instead of diddling on about this other twaddle. You'd help save lives if you did.
Posted by: restless94110 | Sep 27 2020 8:33 utc | 90
b, You wrote "corona viruses that infect humans. Four of those can cause the common cold......... The infection fatality rate for these four corona viruses is estimated to be about 0.1%"
Are you saying that one in a thousand people who suffer the common cold will die?
Posted by: Cvnedda | Sep 27 2020 8:39 utc | 91
It must be a leftist thing to vest so much trust into big government and international organizations doing their darndest to strip you of your human rights and liberties...
"Quarantine is when you restrict the movement of sick people.
Tyranny is when you restrict the movement of healthy people (and punish them for not wearing face masks, which by the way are completely useless as protection against viruses)".
Posted by: LXV | Sep 27 2020 8:39 utc | 92
Covidiot: A person who is skeptical of the official narrative. A person who prefers to think for themselves. Alternatively, the hackneyed term 'conspiracy theorist' may also be used.
Posted by: bon | Sep 27 2020 8:51 utc | 93
Covidiot: a person, who despite their woolen coat, cloven hooves and horns, is convinced that they are more intelligent and better informed than the rest of the "sheeple".
Posted by: Malchik Ralf | Sep 27 2020 9:02 utc | 94
@93: no, 'covidiot' is not a person 'who is skeptical of the official narrative'; rather a 'covidiot' is a person who ignores scientific data when it does not fit neatly into their preconceived line of argument. Deliberately ignoring scientific evidence because it does not suit your line of argument is not 'thinking for yourself'. Trump for example is a 'covidiot': he attacks and sabotages the research and advice of CDC and NIH's Dr Anthony Fauci because their conclusions don't fit into his political agenda of reopening everything to keep the profits coming in for big business–regardless of America's #1 status worldwide in Covid-19 total cases and total deaths.
Posted by: deschutesmaple | Sep 27 2020 9:08 utc | 95
The OffGardian view has no logic, pure blame shifting, anti mask, anti social distancing, anti lockdown from the very start. Lock-step with Tory Boris Johnson herd immunity, controlled eugenics.
Off-Gardian view point + Tory curuption are responsible for longevity of this pandemic.
The dishonesty of all these new commenters shows. You are devoid of any basic grasp of reality !
You don’t mention what is happening in schools or universities.
Here in the U.K. I see plane after plane coming back from Spain ect, bringing infection with it, right to my own door step. Groups from local pubs, from there infecting the community here. This is toataly insane. Wake up and face reality.
As long as you continue with your reckless stupidly this will continue and worsen. For how long and with what consequences ?
That’s not retorical.
Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 27 2020 9:17 utc | 96
Another simmering spot goes to flames, Armenia fully mobilized, war with Azerbaijan.
Was the fall of the Soviet Union a political catastrophe? Thirty years gone by and it goes on, the irony is that nobody won, not even the self declared victors.
Posted by: Paco | Sep 27 2020 9:19 utc | 97
I think you trolls should from here on declare that you are from off-Gardian or were ever else you have come from.
Your trying to infect this thread, this blog with life threating false information with no basis in fact, by sheer weight of numbers.
You won’t succeed. Becouse your wrong, and what you preach is killing people.
Posted by: Mark2 | Sep 27 2020 9:48 utc | 98
In the run-up to the war on Iraq "the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy."
Here's what I find incomprehensible:
Trumpers are the most ignorant when it comes to the virus because their guru, Trump, leads by example on his under-estimation and mishandling of the virus for political interest. Thing is that people who f*ck up on big things usually have a pattern of behavior that precedes the catastrophic fail.
So as intelligently as you laid it all out here on Covid-19 misinformation and outright lies, you too are fixing the facts all the time here to coincide with your Trump is best for Russia, so to hell with reality and the truth, he must win! goal.
I trust your opinions on Covid, because I'm always for the truth, but IMO, you destroyed your credibility with your infatuation with Trump and now you expect the ignoramuses of the world to take you seriously?
You lay down with dogs who have zero respect for the truth; expect to wake up covered in fleas, looking like them.
Seriously, look at yourself in the mirror. The truth hurts, but lies can kill. You aren't redeeming yourself just by expertly laying out the truth on Covid, so I refuse to give you a pass, cause you do a lot of damage every other day 🙄 fixing the truth around your policy.
Posted by: Circe | Sep 27 2020 10:17 utc | 99
Cvnedda | Sep 27 2020 8:39 utc | 91:
Good question, but I don’t think MoA’s coronavirus posts are meant to be read that carefully. You’re supposed to just bask in the miasmic fear.
Posted by: David G | Sep 27 2020 10:23 utc | 100
The comments to this entry are closed.
B has a nice long piece with graphs and everything showing his point of view.
Here is another one from from July 17:
From
Finito On The Covid Nonsense [Market-Ticker]
I'm tired of repeating myself.
The answers to Covid exist.
We know this because it's been figured out.
...
[way too long quote deleted - b.]
Posted by: David Shinn | Sep 26 2020 19:44 utc | 1