Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
September 27, 2020

Azerbaijani Army And Syrian Jihadis Launch Attack On Armenian Lines

During the last weeks there was news that Turkey was hiring some 2,000 'Syrian rebels' to fight in Azerbaijan against Armenian forces which since 1993 occupy Nagorno- Karabakh. Earlier today the Azerbaijan forces and the mercenaries launched their attack on Armenian lines. It was a massacre. Two Azerbaijani helicopters were shot down. Some 10 tanks and armored troop transporters went up in flames. Azerbaijani artillery hit some civilian structures in Stepankert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkish(?) drones hit Armenia front positions.


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The Azerbaijani tactic seems to be to bunch up a lot of their tanks in the open field and to wait for the Armenian artillery to destroy them. Russian troops are stationed in Armenia and additional heavy support from Russia was flown in today. But Russia is friendly with both countries and is already urging for an armistice. Armenia has mobilized its forces and reinforcements are moving towards the front.

This is now, after Syrian and Libya, the third country in which the wannabe Sultan of Turkey is trying to fight Russian supported forces. It ain't gonna work. But Erdogan has to keep on doing that as a domestic diversion because the Turkish economy has screeched to a halt. The recent central bank rate hike is unlikely to stop the loss of the Lira but will deepen the recession.

The situation might well escalated from here on. There will be a lot of disinformation coming from both sides.

Posted by b on September 27, 2020 at 12:55 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Thanks B.

Posted by: Josh | Sep 27 2020 13:19 utc | 1

Azerbaijan can't lift a finger without Ottoman backing. Armenia is traditionally a Russian ally, and even though the current regime is wooing Amerikastan, it can't survive without Russian protection. In any regular war Armenia will smash Azerbaijan flat but the Ottomans are guaranteed to get involved. Now Russia and the Ottomans are on different sides in Libya of course, Russia would back Greece in any conflict with Ankara, and increasingly Russia is getting fed up with Ottoman attempts to annex North Syria. I can only surmise that this is an Ottoman warning to Russia.

Posted by: Biswapriya Purkayast | Sep 27 2020 14:03 utc | 2

The claim the Azeri tanks were just sitting in a field waiting to be smashed by Russian artillery etc. actually sounds like the Russians attacking first. The aggressor usually has the initiative and thus usually has operational success in the opening round. It's theoretically possible that a Russian artillery offensive was on high alert, waiting to launch after a suitable "incident" which could be represented as an Azeri assault. Whatever the value of mercenaries from a losing war, a few weeks is very unlikely to permit meaningful incorporation into an actual fighting force. Therefore it is highly unlikely that their reinforcement was the enabling cause of an Azeri assault.

It is a strange and marvelous world, where wonders delightful and horrible abound. So it is barely possible the Azeris are terminally stupid, the underlying theory of the post. I would still say that it's *not* because non-Christians are stupid. More likely it's because the Azeris are getting their military advice from their friends the Russians.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 27 2020 14:24 utc | 3

@ # 2

"Armenia is traditionally a Russian ally"

Not so much anymore. It was the National Endowment for Democracy and George Soros Foundation that brought Armenia's most recent leader to power.


b "This is now, after Syrian and Libya, the third country in which the wannabe Sultan of Turkey is trying to fight Russian supported forces."

rubbish

Posted by: R Rose | Sep 27 2020 14:30 utc | 4

Thread on the reignitied conflict, IMO too coincidental with soon coming outcome of US elections..

https://twitter.com/descifraguerra/status/1310123197111689218

IMO this reigniting of an old conflict comes as response to recent Kavkas 2020 maneuvers organized by Russia which are taking place right now, with the participation of Armenia, and also as response of last meeting between Zarif and Lavrov, in whose presser Lavrov was quite explicit, at least more than before...

This comes, in the first place, as a new hot front ( apart from Belarus ) in the post-Soviet space to implicate Russia and make her choose amongst two neighbors she gets along with quite well, and at the same time, the transport of Syrian jihadi mercenary forces in a charter flight by Turkey imply that a new abcess the size and type of Idlib is planned to be inserted in the viccinity of both Russia and Iran, which will act as destablization force for future incursions after US elections...

As we talk Azerbaijan is announcing advances in the Southern front and the take over of some localities along Iranian border...Why? What that has to do with Armenia? To implant there the jihadis for the coming "proxy war" on Iran, the same way they were implanted in Syria/Turkey northern East and West border and Syria/Lebanon Southern border...
Turkey here acting as US proxy PMC to position US managed and funded jihadi forces, as it has done in Syria and Lybia...

https://twitter.com/descifraguerra/status/1310165201073954816

https://twitter.com/descifraguerra/status/1310187962135609344

Also the conflict comes to shoot two, or three, birds with the same shot by starting another military conflict or destabilization process in the Silk & Road path...

This is the US MIC reasuring their rate of profit for the coming US presidency by extending the perpetual war...

Although may well be that they will not even wait for the elections results...

Is Steven Bannon Still Advising Trump? U.S. President Leads the Country Into Dangerous Waters With Latest Iran Move

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Sep 27 2020 14:33 utc | 5

On the importance of this new conflict and its obvious connection with Iran...See map in thread linked above...Some more sources...Probable objective of past "color revolution" in Armenia...on the grounds of "alleged" US chaotic state...chaos in the US acts as veil for its own population ( so as thvey can not think of continuously started wars while they cop with the immeidate miserable oticome of the pandemic...) and for opponents... who may think of relaxing...Fortunately, Gerasimov, and IRGC, are always attentive...

THE SECOND WAR OF THE NAGORNO-KARABAJ HAS BREAKED In red the disputed region, in the center of which is Stefankert, the capital. In blue the areas supposedly conquered by #Azerbaiyan.

Everything indicates that the Azeri offensive began by surprise in the early hours of today, and has maintained a reasonable pace of advance

https://twitter.com/Political_Room/status/1310189589521403908

On the visible hand of Turkey in this reginition...no way Turkey is moving without NATO consent...and even support...recall "international coalition of the willing to fight ISIS in Syria"...which then turned into ISIS proxy war onto Syrian state and population...

I have been checking and Azerbaijan announced in June that they were interested in buying TB2 from Turkey. In no way have they been able to buy, receive and put the drones into operation in such a short time. It starts to get cloudy.

Twitter turco está diciendo abiertamente que son sus drones. Mientras Clash Report, que ya se ha comentado muchas veces que podría estar ligada a la inteligencia truca (por el acceso que tienen a cierto material informativo) habla de que los drones son Bayraktar TB2.

https://twitter.com/DragonLadyU2/status/1310186956475830272

Shooting is common in Upper Karabakh...but not in Down Karabakh...this conflict as part of war on Russian gas supply to Europe...

Although shooting is common in Upper Karabakh, a disputed area between Armenia and Azerbaijan, this is the fastest escalation in recent times. Just hours after the last incident, Armenia has declared martial law and total mobilization.

Let's not think that this is simply a local conflict between two countries: Azerbaijan is backed by Turkey, while Armenia is backed by Russia. And to this we can add the natural gas that comes to Europe from the Caspian.

https://twitter.com/elOrdenMundial/status/1310140310815731712

In case someone wants to follow, Youtube channel of Armenian TV which sometimes biradcast in Englisgh language...

In case anyone is interested in following him from the origin, YouTube channel with a live signal from an Armenian television (at times they speak in English)

https://twitter.com/carola1292/status/1310150136236998657


Posted by: H.Schmatz | Sep 27 2020 14:56 utc | 6

@Posted by: H.Schmatz | Sep 27 2020 14:56 utc | 6

Well, sorry, posting too fast, as I must go now, and without time to check two times...
It seems that tweets by #DragonLadyU2 got middle trnaslated...Repost correctly and with blockquote, as it is not, as it could seem by the size of letter, info of mine, but of this account who is following the issue of Azerbaijani drones purchase...

I was introducing it as:

On the visible hand of Turkey in this reginition...no way Turkey is moving without NATO consent...and even support...recall "international coalition of the willing to fight ISIS in Syria"...which then turned into ISIS proxy war onto Syrian state and population...

I have been checking and Azerbaijan announced in June that they were interested in buying TB2 from Turkey. In no way have they been able to buy, receive and put the drones into operation in such a short time. It starts to get cloudy.

Turkish Twitter is openly saying that it is their drones. While Clash Report, which has already been commented many times that it could be linked to Turkish intelligence (due to the access they have to certain informative material), talks about the drones being Bayraktar TB2.

https://twitter.com/DragonLadyU2/status/1310186956475830272

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Sep 27 2020 15:07 utc | 7

On preparations for this conflict, and who provoked whom...also reflected some intends of transforming this inot religious conflict...which then would reginite the whole Caucasus and Caspian region, and thus would end implying Iran and Russia...and probably palcing them in different sides...which could be one of the objectives, to put a breach into very good Russian/Iranian relations...Beware...

I'm reminded Israeli bizjet associated w secret flights was in Baku, Azerbaijan 3 days ago. Landed back in Israel along w Azeri ministry of defense cargo

https://twitter.com/avischarf/status/1310212966177009665

Now is when certain things start to make sense, airlift of Turkish military cargo planes bound for Azerbaijan on the 24th.

https://twitter.com/DragonLadyU2/status/1310201238403907584


Interesting thread on the preparations for the shipping of jihadis...on preparations time ago..( no idea baout this source I cathed over there...)

https://twitter.com/Elizrael/status/1310164366097027072

I have not been able to verify the arrival of Syrian fighters from the Turkish-backed factions (SNA) in Azerbaijan as of now. I can confirm that dozens of fighters from NW Syria (outside of regime control) left Syria via Turkey in an unknown direction about a week ago.

Families lost touch with these men since their departure. Rumored destinations include Azerbaijan, Qatar, Turkey and Libya. I am in touch with families & friends of men who left and will report once they manage to get in touch with their loved-ones.

About a month ago, rumors spread on WhatsApp among SNA fighters that they can register to go to Azerbaijan. Many registered over WhatsApp, others apparently thru offices in the Turkish-controlled areas.
The fighters registered due to the enticing rumored salaries of $2K-$2.5K

The SNA mercenaries who've gone to fight in Libya against Haftar were recruited with direct involvement by Turkish officers who met with commanders of the SNA factions to pressure them to send fighters. With the alleged Azerbaijan recruitment, there haven't been such meetings.

It seems likely that the recruitment is being carried out by a Turkish private security company that is also involved in shipping Syrians to fight in Libya. There is no need to apply pressure on Syrians to leave anymore. The number of men wanting to go far exceeds demand.

With time, the idea of being deployed oversees as a mercenary is becoming more socially acceptable in Syria, in both communities residing outside of regime control (men in Idlib have registered to go to Azerbaijan too) and in regime areas (where men are going to fight for Haftar)

Syrian lives are regarded as expendable, with Syria serving as an arena to settle geostrategic scores at Syrians' expense. Syrians resisted & still resist this logic, but the collapse of the economy is prompting many Syrians to be willing to sell themselves to the highest bidder.


Posted by: H.Schmatz | Sep 27 2020 15:32 utc | 8

I think that Jihadists have no nationality, therefore it is wrong to label them as "Syrian"!

Posted by: padre | Sep 27 2020 15:47 utc | 9

@Posted by: padre | Sep 27 2020 15:47 utc | 9

Indeed, that is a multinational proxy force, sometimes recruited in Gulf monarchies jails...

Attention also to the restarting of jihadi attacks in the land of Petit Napoleon...second from some days ago...

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Sep 27 2020 16:22 utc | 10

some confused comments

(1) re: tanks bunched up - the linked Armenian MOD twitter-video with the cheesy music and 2 tank hits (this one) suggests it is not artillery? Recently dug cover beind them, but tanks mostly facing toward camera. Bulldozer still there. Direct hits. You can see from the reaction of the tanks what they think is the direction from which they were attacked. After the first hit, the next tank to be hit attempted (unsuccessfully) to hide behind the remains of the tank already destroyed. The others which were not already facing that way, turn their turrets toward the camera, which is the direction from which they think they were attacked. They start making smokescreen as the clip ends.

(2) We really don't need to see a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

(3) I don't really get the geopolitics of this. For Turkish strategic motivations, the relevant oil/gas pipeline does not pass thru the contested territory although is quite close. Not sure what to make of that. Map here, with Nagorno-Karabakh colored in under Azerbaijan. Turkey is in danger of being bypassed by Greece-Cyprus-Israel pipeline, how does this this help them in any way?

(4) For US-Iran conflict, just seems like general chaos. Perhaps there is a land route from Russia-Georgia-Iran, but it can't be as good as the caspian sea route.

(5) for Greece-Cyprus pipeline, there may be a commercial benefit, if the reliability of the Azerbaijan-Turkey route comes into question due to war or instability.

Posted by: ptb | Sep 27 2020 16:40 utc | 11

@ Posted by: ptb | Sep 27 2020 16:40 utc | 11

Looks like Turkey has gone rogue. Since the 2016 assassination attempt, Erdogan doesn't trust NATO anymore.

As for (3), it's very straightforward: Turkey probably wants some symmetrical leverage against Russia against the FUBARed situation in Idlib (which is draining Turkish coffers and soldiers). They are probably very desperate, and are looking for something on these lines: "look, Russia, you give us Idlib and we let Nagorno-Karabakh alone the next day. Deal?".

Posted by: vk | Sep 27 2020 17:00 utc | 12

The Azeris making advances is to be expected if they had the aggressor's initiative. The post implies the Armenians are winning handily, which is not to be expected when a prepared Azeri offensive kicks off.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 27 2020 17:28 utc | 13

Armenia has long been on the US Regime Change hitlist - June/July 2015, July 2017, April 2018 when the Random Guy Pashinyan was imposed as leader. He has the tricky task of balancing the demands of his owners versus the reality of Armenian interests.

Posted by: Ken Garoo | Sep 27 2020 17:30 utc | 14

Who is your favorite "wannabe"?

"The wannabe Sultan of Turkey" or "the wannabe Tsar and Autocrat of All Russias"?

Posted by: conspiracy-theory | Sep 27 2020 19:01 utc | 15

@ Posted by: vk | Sep 27 2020 17:00 utc | 12

"look, Russia, you give us Idlib and we let Nagorno-Karabakh alone the next day. Deal?".

Seems to me that Idlib isn't Russia's to give and is, in fact, already in Turkey's hands.

Posted by: robin | Sep 27 2020 19:39 utc | 16

@ 15 conspiracy theory. Oh Definitely the "Wanna be Tsar of Russia" Here is a link to see what kind of people his fiendish family are. https://www.rt.com/news/254445-putin-family-details-wwii/

Posted by: Ike | Sep 27 2020 19:49 utc | 17

Azerbaijanis are overwhelmingly Shia. So now Syrian rebels are okay fighting on the side of the “apostates” and “infidels” they previously vowed to kill? Or maybe they are just mercenaries who will fight for anything or anybody as long as they get paid for it? Very confusing.

Posted by: Daniel | Sep 27 2020 20:19 utc | 18

fyi: the "leader" of Armenia came to power in a soft coup- Velvet Revolution 2.0
Aided by Soros and the NED. Two years ago.
Should be widely known? But apparently it isn't

Posted by: R Rose | Sep 27 2020 21:53 utc | 19

Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 27 2020 14:24 utc | 3 The claim the Azeri tanks were just sitting in a field waiting to be smashed by Russian artillery etc.

This is how it worked in Ukraine. The Ukraine army would launch some artillery into a Donbass village, without any actual reconnaissance to determine where the Donbass separatists were. Then they would drive forward with their armor. The insurgents would surround them, then pound the Ukrainian armor with artillery. Result: entire Ukrainian armor battalions wiped out. This happened over and over again, to the point where the Ukrainian army lost most of their armor and had to drag out mothballed tanks from old Soviet-era storage. The Donbass insurgents would collect the busted up armor, haul it back to a maintenance depot and make one functioning tank out of two or three busted ones.

Also, keep in mind that artillery is mostly mobile these days. Almost everything is towed or mounted on wheeled or tracked vehicles. So the artillery moves as well. It's like WWI with fixed artillery positions. What matters is how good your intelligence is at locating where the enemy forces are.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Sep 27 2020 22:36 utc | 20

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Sep 27 2020 22:36 utc | 19

"It's like WWI with fixed artillery positions." s/b "It's not like WWI with fixed artillery positions."

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Sep 27 2020 22:39 utc | 21

@Posted by: R Rose | Sep 27 2020 21:53 utc | 18

Indeed, and thus, if Armenia is backed by the US and Azerbaijan by Turkey, what is this, a "blue on blue" to try to bog down Russia?

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Sep 27 2020 22:42 utc | 22

Re-count by Azerbaijan MoD... No idea whether this is an exageration...

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1310335019777503237

22 Tank and Armoured Vehicle

15 OSA(SA-8) and TOR(SA-15) Air Defence System

18 Drone

8 Artillery

3 Ammunition Depot

destroyed.

550 Armenian servicemen were killed or wounded.

Armenian side seems to recognize the loses..

The president of Artsakh has just given a press conference in which he has acknowledged that they have lost ground in several points to the advance of the Azeri troops. He has also claimed that Turkey is directly involved in the fighting.

https://twitter.com/descifraguerra/status/1310288673670418433

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Sep 27 2020 23:00 utc | 23

Richard Steven Hack@19. I was under the impression most of the real losses to Ukraine came when they were lured into "cauldrons," not immediately upon entering Luhansk or Donetsk. Also, I was under the impression the Ukrainian "army" was discomposed by the incorporation of fascist paramilitary formations. Suitable for intimidating the national government and the civil population in the rest of Ukraine. But not properly a fighting force, whose presence would lower the overall functioning. Also, I tend to think fascists are fundamentally stupid, but that may just be my personal prejudice.

But of course this may be true and the Azeris are the Dunning-Kruger brigade, which is why the Armenians are winning already, as the original post so strongly implies.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 27 2020 23:49 utc | 24

Turkey may have been given some 'guarantees' by the IMF to defer loans and other clandestine promises from the NATO team so Erdoghan is free to expand his preposterous dreams of the Ottoman Restoration.

Turkey is a useful proxy for the forever war machine of the UKUSAi gang of murderers. The Jihadis have been extremely well trained over the years as the recently leaked Integrity Initiative documents reveal. Thanks to anonymous. May anonymous have more strength in their arm and wisdom in their mind, which is my way of saying god bless and death to infidels etc...

So these skilled jihadis are the extension of the empires wars and finance capitalism. I imagine none of this is a surprise for the Russian side of the equation even if the Armenian government is too busy kissing the western arse.

The next few days will be interesting. Perhaps it is time for Assad and his democracy patriots to restore civil Syrian society in Idlib.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 28 2020 0:35 utc | 25

Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 27 2020 23:49 utc | 23 I was under the impression most of the real losses to Ukraine came when they were lured into "cauldrons," not immediately upon entering Luhansk or Donetsk.

Yes, that is correct. This was ongoing over the course of the civil war. It was common for Ukraine to repeat their mistakes, especially IIRC in 2014 during the major battles.

"Also, I was under the impression the Ukrainian "army" was discomposed by the incorporation of fascist paramilitary formations."

I'm not sure what the relative proportions of "regular army" vs "paramilitary" were at each point during the civil war. I believe the paramilitary assumed more importance as the war went on, as once it became clear that Donbass wasn't going to be immediately defeated, opposition to the war in Western Ukraine became more pronounced and they had difficulties conscripting people to go fight other Ukrainians. In any event, it appeared that neither the Ukraine army or the paramilitary battalions learned the lesson that not having adequate intelligence as to the location of your enemy is critical in modern war.

I also suspect that the dislike of the "Russian" Ukrainians in the east colored the attitudes of the Ukraine units, making them more arrogant and less careful than they should have been. What the current situation is like now, I don't know. I haven't followed it for the last couple years.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Sep 28 2020 0:55 utc | 26

Elena Devdokimova has news on the Armenian invasion by the Turkish/Jihadi proxy Azebaijan.

Scroll down for some other good information on a range of topics including a delight on Navalny and his cohorts.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 28 2020 3:16 utc | 27

R Rose #4

b "This is now, after Syrian and Libya, the third country in which the wannabe Sultan of Turkey is trying to fight Russian supported forces."

rubbish

Thank you RR but would you care to expand on that last point a little

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 28 2020 3:46 utc | 28

Conman Trump pays less taxes than me! That cheapskate paid no taxes for 10 years and paid $750 in 2016.

So why the hell does everyone else have to pony up for his crazy Mexico wall, if he contributed nothing?

This is just the tip of the iceberg. This story has tentacles.

Posted by: Circe | Sep 28 2020 4:31 utc | 29

#25 Richard Steven Hack, @23 steven t johnson

Thinking about cauldrons - every advance where the enemy retreats is a chance to be outflanked by that retreating enemy. This seems an eternally fluid factor of combat that the Russians understand intimately, and that many other generals seem not to know. Very strange that they don't know - I know nothing of war but it's easy to learn this from watching Russia. But it doesn't seem necessary to lure forces into cauldrons, since potential cauldrons are constantly arising and being reshaped against.

The Ukrainian armed forces were in the very beginning a serious threat, but many of the best people were also conflicted about why they were fighting their own countrymen. This gave pause to their effect, I think. Then the paramilitaries, the Nazis and other ideological crazies strove to form part of the political makeup of the old nation, and were not the best fighters. Essentially, although I think the whole story could take a book to tell (if anyone could bear to read it), I think the Ukrainian forces became a political tool of the west and the Ukrainian oligarchs, while the Novorussian Armed Forces progressed fairly solidly towards increasing competence as a fighting force, under Russian tutelage.

The time came such that the vastly larger Ukrainian forces were outfought at every turn by the NAF. Eventually, quite literally the Ukrainians were drunk all the time, while the NAF soldiers were bound by a discipline of strict sobriety. And they were fighting on their own land against people who had no right to be there.

And all this eventuated in Debaltsevo, where the incompetence of the west and its proxy was so profound (NATO special forces, it is said, were caught in that cauldron also, and had to be bargained out), that Russia was able to negotiate the masterful Minsk Agreement, which has deadlocked and frozen the conflict ever since.

It's heartening to remember all this, and pardon my adding those 2 cents. Also apologies if all this is a little off topic.

~~

Someone made the observation, fairly early in this thing - back when we were all still watching videos every day of Givi and Motorola, still both very much alive - that in most wars you see the soldiers come home with terrible traumas from the inhuman things they had experienced and acts they had performed. But the NAF soldiers exhibited no such symptoms when they came in from the front. And this was a remarkable thing. The human solidarity and the moral certainty of the NAF fighters should not be overlooked.

The Russian generals plotting the tactics should not be overlooked either, of course, but that was what the Ukrainian planners ignored time and again.

One last thing. The Ukrainian soldiers were thrown by their leaders into defeat constantly, and they knew it before they even went in. Of every effort of the war conducted by the Ukrainian side, not one single instance was ever conducted from a determination of national statecraft. Every action was a chance to steal from the war budget, a chance for Kolomoiski to sell his own, sub-standard flak vests to his own soldiers, a chance to take the CIA stipends and divert as large a slice as possible into one's own pocket.

Nothing in Ukraine can be understood except through the lens of thievery. Then the illogic of it all actually makes sense.

Posted by: Grieved | Sep 28 2020 4:37 utc | 30

Posted by: Grieved | Sep 28 2020 4:37 utc | 29

Agreed. The amusing thing was the panic the Ukrainian side constantly exhibited, claiming massive numbers of Russian tank columns crossing the border - three times in one week! Whereas no reporter or OSCE observer on either side of the border ever saw anything like that. I recall reading that only once during the height of the 2014 summer campaign did a Russian artillery battalion fire across the border in support of the Donbass troops. And of course Russia sent long convoys of food and other supplies to the Donbass civilians, and on the military side there was the "voentorg" - the Russian resupply underground, as well as a small number of Russian soldiers "on leave" who helped organize the Donbass Resistance. But apparently for the most part it was the ex-Soviet Army Donbass citizens themselves who repulsed a national army effectively.

Useful lesson for the US if things go south here.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Sep 28 2020 5:50 utc | 31

Grieved and Richard Steven Hack

Thank you both for that discussion.

Useful lesson for the US if things go south here.

That assumes the US is capable of learning which I doubt. More likely head first into a cauldron, any cauldron will do.

I gather the western Ukrainian nazi brigades are now in the high command structure of the Ukrainian army and enforcing/intimidating the President and Parliament to kowtow. That is what perpetuates the conflict and it is an intractable infiltration that would need a night of the long knives to subdue.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 28 2020 7:19 utc | 32

Circe #28

This is just the tip of the iceberg. This story has tentacles.

Corporate taxation policy has been brought to the USA courtesy of the Demonazis and Repugnants. It is entirely unjust, entirely serving of the wealthy class to the disadvantage of the working class.

There was once a candidate for the Presidential election that decried that greedy policy, a candidate that rallied the working class for justice in taxation and social security policy. He quit the race and turned coat and endorsed the worst possible tax injustice candidate imaginable. Then that very same person performed a pantomime to try to wring a concession out of the greedy tax thieving Demonazis while showing them he had one hand tied behind his back. So they told him and every one of the millions of his followers to PISS OFF.

It looks like they got the message.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 28 2020 7:27 utc | 33

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Sep 28 2020 3:16 utc | 26

Interesting link Evdokimova, 79% Armenians and 84% Azerbaijanis want the USSR back, that goes to confirm the castotrophe of the USSR dissolution, of course there would be no wars in that inmense area, in exchange for McDonalds advertised by Gorby we have now conflicts galore, Moldavia, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Kirguizia, Abjazia, Osetia.... and who needs to eat that crap?

Posted by: Paco | Sep 28 2020 10:09 utc | 34

An opportunity to hit several skittles with one ball was too much to leave alone for the Turks, especially if the skittles could be hit down in someone else's backyard and particularly if that someone else happens to be a client state of Turkey's.

It surely also suits the United States in some way, if that opportunity leads to Russia and Iran becoming bogged down fighting in the Caucasus, and they are forced to take their attention (and money, arms and fighters) away from Idlib province in NW Syria.

So presumably if the Azeris could beat the Armenians with imported "Syrian rebels", that then would encourage home-grown rebel wannabes in Daghestan, Chechnya and other Muslim areas in the northern Caucasus to "rise up" against Russian rule. At the same time, Azeris in NW Iran would be inspired (in the wildest dreams of both the American and Turkish governments) to rise up against Tehran and declare their part of Iran independent.

Unfortunately the Armenians, despite their government's pro-American tendencies, recovered from what must have been surprise attacks and were able to retaliate quickly and hard. Now Russia has taken the high road and offered itself as a mediator.

Let's see if the US and the EU can persuade the Armenians with their offers of loans worth billions (presumably contingent on Armenians deferring to Israel as to whose Holocaust deserves to be called a "Holocaust" and not a mere genocide - even though Winston Churchill about 100 years ago or so used the term to describe the Ottoman massacres of Armenians and other Christian groups in their empire) away from Russian mediation and negotiation. If the money fails to lure Armenia into the IMF / World Bank debt trap, there goes the opportunity to scatter all the skittles.

Posted by: Jen | Sep 28 2020 11:06 utc | 35

@33 uncle tungsten

Blah-blah, yes-yes, but what about the thieving CON Trump??? Have you nothing to say about that greedy rat, unc?

Of course not, you'd rather play the oh but he's good for Russia, hypocrisy card. Doesn't matter if he's a fraud, a fake populism thief, a con, a pathological liar, a Zionist fascist immoral pig.

The bots want to inflict Trump on the rest of the world cause he's good for Russia and Israel and to hell with everyone else.

Damn what Russia and Israel want!

Posted by: Circe | Sep 28 2020 11:39 utc | 36

No, it doesn't matter if Trump is a fraud, a fake populism thief, a con, a pathological liar, a Zionist fascist immoral pig. We want to inflict Trump on YOU, personally (notice the ALL CAPS, which used to be your trademark? We miss you being more honest to your hysterical nature).

Posted by: William Gruff | Sep 28 2020 12:39 utc | 37

Permanent war is never permanent, nor is it ever frozen. A rigid structure may not deform until it breaks apart, but nobody can fight permanent war. When is unpredictable, but events on the ground, in Donbass, in Kyiv or in Minsk will undo the supposed solution. The inevitable political consequences of endless war will undo somebody. Russia is the strongest party, so it would probably be last, unless Putin's adventures and crazed talk of hyperweapons is brewing rebellion in the officer corps.

Posted by: steven t johnson | Sep 28 2020 12:46 utc | 38

36 Circe the witch

So if Trump is all that what makes him different from YOUR Biden,and YOUR Sanders?The rest of the world that is less indoctrinated with amzerican bullshittery than you are, are quite satisfied with Trumpie's throwing pottery in his own yard.

Posted by: willie | Sep 28 2020 12:51 utc | 39

"Now Russia has taken the high road and offered itself as a mediator."

Translation - won't rescue Armenia from the Turks until government agrees to be more friendly. As this has the potential to get really out of control for historical reasons, one hopes there will be some kind of 'observers' or something.

Posted by: ptb | Sep 28 2020 13:14 utc | 40

Trump's demoted ex campaign manager, Brad Parscale, was forcibly hospitalized after he tried to harm himself with one of his multiple firearms.

Brad Parscale

That's what I call typical cult separation syndrome crackup after you fall out of favor with the cult guru. Trump's looking like the Jim Jones of politics.

One can only hope Parscale's affliction spreads among the rest of Trump's looneytunes base.

This together with Trump's tax scam and con on the American people exposed suggests there's hope after all that the Fall of Trump is inching closer.

Posted by: Circe | Sep 28 2020 13:38 utc | 41

Imagine Trump out of a job and owing $300,000 to foreign lenders including Russians???

Boy, I'm glad I'm not in those shoes! Must hurt to be tied up with that train barreling down the tracks!

Posted by: Circe | Sep 28 2020 13:46 utc | 42

Correction: not $300,000; he owes $300 Million! Trump's real face: 🥺

Posted by: Circe | Sep 28 2020 13:50 utc | 43

This thread is about the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.....why do the comments switch over to topics relating to USA, Biden and Trump.?
The Americans are not the centre of the planet nor the most important.....nor the most interesting for other users of this forum!

Posted by: RedBaron 07 | Sep 28 2020 15:54 utc | 44

You know I was thinking that since Erdogan wants to get involved in war in Armenia now, having been blocked in the Med, this would be a great time for Assad to take back the rest of Idlib.

And I understand the Pope refused to see Pompeo.

Posted by: Bemildred | Sep 28 2020 16:21 utc | 45

I'm trying to get a better contextual setup to this conflict. I recall the USA directed coup attempt dubber "Electric Yerevan" when a company from said nation bought the power company, ran it into the ground and used it as a basis for sparking protests. Next I am hearing that the current president is a "Random Guido" who answer to the USA. If so how does this effect Armenias strategic partnership with Russia? From what little I know about the Armenian spirit they are fiercely devoted to their culture. Many Americans of Armenian would fly back to the old country in order to take up arms. It seems as though this conflict is going to escalate if only because the damage done so far. Armenia is fully mobilizing.
In regard to the Donbass situation, I gathered that the Ukrops army was heavily laden with conscripts many of whom fled to Russia. They succumbed to the cauldron tactic due in part to be order by "results driven" leaders in the rear. That and they stuck to the roads and were easily flanked by smaller NAF units operating "in the green" What I found interesting (and disturbing) about this conflict is that it resembles what could very well happen in the USA, minus the armor although....

Posted by: Chevrus | Sep 28 2020 18:20 utc | 46

Although it is, clearly I suppose, not my field, from known and new mostly military analysis sources recently found, I will try form a somehow readable post...( forgive thus if I do not write the weapons denomination correctly...I make the effort to keep you informed...and alos take into account, I am figuring out the events without thoroughly studying the maps, I have passed the day working/making food shopping/taking a nap... )

On the doubts about whether Russia would intervene on behalf of Armenia, that wouldv happen if Armenia request assistance under CIS agreements, but Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh ( currently Republic of Arsakh, the name of ancient Great Armenia, to eliminate the azeri denomination Karabakh.. ) is not Armenia, it is a region which apealed self-determination but not recognized by any nation so far...not even by Armenia, due the ceasfire signed in 1994 ( what implies that the war never ended, but was frozen for a while, to be reignited from time to time...) Thread ( you translate the Twitts on your own this time...otherwise would get too long post..)

https://twitter.com/descifraguerra/status/1310634361042145282

It is on the grounds of CIS agreements, I guess, that today some Russian MiG-29 overflow Yerevan...

https://twitter.com/Political_Room/status/1310604450424328192

Both countries are very mountainous terrain, this is Caucasus, what makes advancement quite difficult, thus, eventhough at first moments success was falling on the side of Azerbaijan ( which counts with the unestimable help of Turkish swarms of drones and intelligence from Turkish AWACSm it seems that Armenia, which has its borders mined, has inflicted heavy loses in armor to Azerbaijan today, destroyed and captured....( warning disturbing content of people flying in the air space..), also list of fallen in the Armenian side, most milennials...This is when most fallen could have originated...in Martakhert, in the North...

https://twitter.com/14Milimetros/status/1310173020082843655

https://twitter.com/Political_Room/status/1310635885738819584

#LATEST HOUR #URGENT #Azerbaiyan army claims to have destroyed #Armenia's air defense in Martakhert (north), with 12 OSA systems destroyed. The #Martakhert garrison would be surrounded and offered the option to surrender.

https://twitter.com/301_AD/status/1310574779733340160

#LATEST HOUR First list of fallen in combat by #Armenia. Note that most are kids born in 2000. The Armenian Defense Ministry also claims that during a successful counterattack they have captured 11 armor including an advanced BMP-3.

https://twitter.com/Political_Room/status/1310356974010339330

It seems that modern warfare through drones is rendering heavy armor a bit obsolete, well, like seating ducks slowly advancing in mountainous terrain of Caucasus..

https://twitter.com/SubBrief/status/1310359802615300097

The miniature air campaign being carried out by the #Azerbaijan drones against #Armenia seems to be very successful. Its main protagonist is being the MAM-L micromissiles from #Turkey.

https://twitter.com/Political_Room/status/1310604904042500105

#Azerbaiyan has already deployed the TOS-1 Buratino thermobaric rocket launchers. The #Azerbaiyan drone air campaign continues to wreak havoc on the Armenian ranks.

https://twitter.com/Political_Room/status/1310549583735459841

BTW, @flighradar24, where some people use to follow flights path is under attack...guys are saying this is Turkey/ Azrbaijan so that their drones can not be followed..

https://twitter.com/DragonLadyU2/status/1310662606261284869

Some additional points in this thread by another guy who works for @descifraguerra, with what is described by him as #cutremapa ( an outline made in the run without much precision so as to clarify his points.. ):

There are skirmishes throughout practically the entire front but the "serious" fighting is concentrated in the areas marked A (Murov Peak), B (Agdara - Heyvali axis) and C (Fuzuli region). Especially in the latter, I refer to the video.

The ultimate goal of the Azeris appears to be a south-north pincer on the capital of Artsakh, Stepanakert, with all the difficulties that this entails. Taking this into account, it seems that there are two previous objectives.

The first of these objectives is to cut the M11, the main logistics artery of Artsakh, for which they have two options: A) Take the peak of Murov and block the road taking advantage of the heights. But storming up the mountain is always tricky.
B) Take the Heyvali junction. To do so, they must first cross several towns, such as Aghdara, and it is in this area where it seems that more artillery fire is concentrating in the last hours.

The second ideal objective would be to cut the M12, the second most important road in the area and therefore the second most important supply route, but considering its position this is something very difficult to carry out in most of its tracing.

So it seems that they are opting for a second objective, a priori simpler: to capture the Fuzali region (remember, zone C on the map) and cut the M12 at the entrance to Stepanakert itself (just 1.37 km south From the capital).

For now, it seems that the Armenians are holding up well to the south, although it is the front in which the most intense fighting has taken place so far this day, but they have less and less anti-aircraft and that allows the Azeri drones to act.

On the growing military drone industry being built by Turkey ( guess where the command and control of those swarms of drones attacking one day after another Khmeimin and Syrian positions and warehousesd is placed ), in the hands of his son-in-law, it seems that Syrian oil smuggling resulted most profitting...

Turkey is laying the foundations of its geopolitics in the massive use of drones in places of conflict where it has great interests.

To achieve his goals, Erdogan managed to establish his own drone industry. He is currently in the hands of one of his sons-in-law.

https://twitter.com/14Milimetros/status/1310345958564204546

Some historical curiosities about the two "main" contenders...

Did you know...

-Armenia was the first country in the world to adopt Christianity as its official religion (301 AD)

-Azerbaijan was the first Muslim country in the world to adopt the secular parliamentary republic as a model state (1918).

https://twitter.com/14Milimetros/status/1310247759363088400


Posted by: H.Schmatz | Sep 28 2020 20:13 utc | 47

Rethoric question in the take down of @flightradar24...

https://twitter.com/avischarf/status/1310278494224613379

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Sep 28 2020 22:04 utc | 48

Azerbaijan and Turkey have been probably offered personal beneffits by initiating a conflict which beneffits the US geopolitically, as it brings a hot conflict to the borders of Iran and Russia which could end bogging down both...

Report dating two years ago on the Aliyevs, a familiar business...as it seems the case with Turkey, trying to channel social discontent through exarcebated nationalism and strategy of tensions with neighbors

https://twitter.com/Desvelandorient/status/1310476366073266176

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Sep 28 2020 22:34 utc | 49

Thanks for all the info. Now that you mention it, it DOES make sense that the USA would nudge this into a hot war for destabilization purposes.

Posted by: Chevrus | Sep 28 2020 23:37 utc | 50

Looks serious, Armenia mobilizing..
How is this going to affect Iran?

Posted by: Lozion | Sep 29 2020 3:52 utc | 51

Another exciting stalemate to come

Posted by: Jezabeel | Sep 29 2020 8:35 utc | 52

strange that this unresolved conflict should suddenly flare up now
considering that just a few days ago there was news regarding Iran and Russia wanting to connect their power grids
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-To-Link-Its-Power-Grid-To-Russia-Azerbaijan.html

any connection to Iran never seems to be out of the news

Posted by: chris m | Sep 29 2020 12:59 utc | 53

My understanding thus far is that the current president is somewhat aligned with the USA and that Russia is standing by as the lesson is learned yet again about what happens when you bargain with the devil.
Turkeys hand in all of this is pretty clear. Driving a wedge into Russias underbelly where it connects to Iran makes sense especially when the power grid aspect is factored in. Some translated some text from Cassad ocer on the Saker site which made sense. When factored into all the other brewing conflicts in the region things could get ugly.

Posted by: Chevrus | Sep 29 2020 14:46 utc | 54

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