Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 05, 2020

Beirut Blast Wrap-up

Updated below

Yesterday 2.750 tons of ammonium nitrate stored in a warehouse at the port of Beirut, Lebanon, exploded. The blast killed more than 100 people and wounded more than 4,000. Many buildings in Beirut were severely damaged. The pressure wave broke windows as far 10 miles away. Beirut's port is mostly destroyed. Lebanon's national grain reserve, stored in grain silos next to the explosion, is gone.

This comes on top of an economic and currency meltdown in Lebanon and during a exponential growth phase of the Coronovirus epidemic.

In 2013 Lebanese authorities arrested a ship (pdf) that had been abandoned by its owner:

On 23/9/2013, m/v Rhosus, flying the Moldovian flag, sailed from Batumi Port, Georgia heading to Biera in Mozambique carrying 2,750 tons of Ammonium Nitrate in bulk.

En route, the vessel faced technical problems forcing the Master to enter Beirut Port. Upon inspection of the vessel by Port State Control, the vessel was forbidden from sailing. Most crew except the Master and four crew members were repatriated and shortly afterwards the vessel was abandoned by her owners after charterers and cargo concern lost interest in the cargo. The vessel quickly ran out of stores, bunker and provisions.
...
Owing to the risks associated with retaining the Ammonium Nitrate on board the vessel, the port authorities discharged the cargo onto the port’s warehouses. The vessel and cargo remain to date in port awaiting auctioning and/or proper disposal.

The ammonium nitrate was stored in a quayside warehouse. The picture shows the 1,000 kilogram big bags labeled "Nitroprill HD" in bad storage conditions at the 'Hanger 12' warehouse in Beirut.


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"Nitroprill HD" is a knock-off product of the trademarked Nitropril, a premium grade porous prilled ammonium nitrate manufactured and sold by the Orica Mining Services in Australia. It is used as a commercial explosive in mining and quarrying. The safety sheet of the original product says it "May explode under confinement and high temperature, but not readily detonated. May explode due to nearby detonations."

An Orica safety assessment (pdf, Appendix III) sets the TNT (military explosive) equivalence for fire of bulk Nitropril in big bags at 15%. 2,750 tons of Nitropril are thereby the equivalent of 412.5 tons of TNT.


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A video taken from the top of the grain silos next to the warehouse shows uncontrolled explosions of small fireworks within a port warehouse near to where the ammonium nitrate was stored. The small crackling fireworks explosions are followed by a very huge one. The video is consistent with other videos taken from further away. What set off the fireworks which set off the ammonium nitrate is as yet unknown but it is assumed to have been accidental (see update below).

The damage as shown in the before-after picture below is huge.


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A look at the quay from the east with the crater of the explosion in front of the grain silos. The silos have protected the western part of the city from more damage. Wheat has spilled out. The grain reserves of Lebanon are down to less than a month of consumption.


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The ammonium nitrate should not have been stored in a warehouse within the city. But similar could be said of the Iranian ammunition that was stored at the Evangelos Florakis Naval Base in Cyprus. It had been seized at U.S. urging en route to Syria in January 2009. On July 11 2011 a wildfire at the base set off the ammunition. The explosion killed dozens and destroyed the main power station of the island.

An aerial video taken this morning shows the utter devastation of Beirut's port facilities. Lebanon depends on imports. 80% of those come through Beirut port.

Pictures and videos from various correspondents in Beirut show their damaged apartments (1, 2, 3, 4). All windows are broken and glass shards are strewn all over the places. The breaking windows must have caused most of the injuries. According to the mayor of Beirut some 300.000 people have lost their homes.

The Middle East correspondent for the Independent tweeted:

Bel Trew @Beltrew - 16:57 UTC · Aug 4, 2020

My flat is completely destroyed. Not just windows blown in- like door and window frames ripped out. The cats are alive thank god.
...
Utter chaos outside St George hospital which has no electricity- medics are treating patients in the car park where the drive through COVID-19 tests were being done. It is now the ER, since the ER is destroyed. Patients screaming in agony in the background. #Beirut #Lebanon

Bel Trew's full report of the explosion and its aftermath is here.

Syria and Iran have immediately promised aid for Lebanon. An Iranian emergency hospital is currently on its way to Beirut and is expected to open later today. Syria dispatched medical teams and is receiving patients from Beirut's overwhelmed hospitals.

The explosion hit Beirut at a moment where the country is under U.S. sanctions and while its currency is cratering with inflation reaching 90% per month after a Ponzi scheme run by its Central Bank blew up. People who do not own foreign currency will be unable to replace their broken windows. The whole country is disintegrating.

Foreign aid from Arab and other states will now hopefully flow in and help to alleviate the suffering.

Update 13:40 UTC:

RFERL spoke with the captain of the ship that had unintentionally brought the ammonium nitrate to Lebanon. He confirms the ship's arrest. It also reports the cause of the incident:

Lebanon's LBCI-TV reported on August 5 that, according to preliminary information, the fire that set off the explosion was started accidentally by welders who were closing off a gap that allowed unauthorized entry into the warehouse.

LBCI said sparks from a welder's torch are thought to have ignited fireworks stored in a warehouse, which in turn detonated the nearby cargo of ammonium nitrate that had been unloaded from the MV Rhosus years earlier.

Independent experts say orange clouds that followed the massive blast on August 4 were likely from toxic nitrogen dioxide gas that is released after an explosion involving nitrates.

There is a short video of firefighters at the initial fire. Reportedly none survived when the fireworks fire set off the ammonium nitrate. Another video shows the initial fire caused by welding. It burns a while and then sets off fireworks in a first explosion. This takes the roof off the warehouse. A few minutes later the fireworks cause the huge explosion of the ammonium nitrate.

Reuters provides another detail:

The source said a fire had started at port warehouse 9 on Tuesday and spread to warehouse 12, where the ammonium nitrate was stored.

That the ammonium nitrate was stored for seven years was not the responsibility of the port management but was caused by some judicial quarrel:

The head of Beirut port and the head of customs both said on Wednesday that several letters were sent to the judiciary asking for the dangerous material be removed, but no action was taken.

Port General Manager Hassan Koraytem told OTV the material had been put in a warehouse on a court order, adding that they knew then the material was dangerous but “not to this degree”.

“We requested that it be re-exported but that did not happen. We leave it to the experts and those concerned to determine why,” Badri Daher, director general of Lebanese Customs, told broadcaster LBCI.

Two documents seen by Reuters showed Lebanese Customs had asked the judiciary in 2016 and 2017 to request that the “concerned maritime agency” re-export or approve the sale of the ammonium nitrate, which had been removed from cargo vessel Rhosus and deposited in warehouse 12, to ensure port safety.

Posted by b on August 5, 2020 at 8:24 UTC | Permalink

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What have I done!

In more ways than one, karlof1.

Sorry everyone for my illiteracy.

Posted by: reante | Aug 8 2020 21:34 utc | 401

Boris Prokoshev, the former captain of Rhosus, tells Russian business news service RBK the horrible story of how he and his crewmates were held against their will in the port of Beirut—and later on the ship itself—by Lebanese authorities: The captain of the ship carrying saltpeter to Beirut named versions of the explosion in the port (machine translated). They only returned home after they managed to sell some of the ship’s fuel, used the proceeds to hire a lawyer to sue the Lebanese government and won the case. Our Ministry of Foreign Affairs should investigate why our embassy in Lebanon did nothing to help them.

Posted by: S | Aug 8 2020 22:07 utc | 402

Trump may be right about Beirut ‘attack’ | Asia Times |

Unfortunately behind a pay-wall ...

Who profits from the Beirut blast? | Asia Times - Pepe Escobar |

Making the case that the explosion resulted from an attack

The narrative that the Beirut explosion was an exclusive consequence of negligence and corruption by the current Lebanese government is now set in stone, at least in the Atlanticist sphere. And yet, digging deeper, we find that negligence and corruption may have been fully exploited, via sabotage, to engineer it. Lebanon is prime John Le Carré ...

Publication here ...
https://thesaker.is/who-profits-from-the-beirut-tragedy/

Posted by: Oui | Aug 8 2020 22:10 utc | 403

Hooray! proper formatting again! Escobar's article is currently a Premium item at Asia Times, so unless you have access, you'll need to wait for it to appear elsewhere to read it in full. On the connection with Occupied Palestine:

"A headline – 'Beirut Blast Shockwaves Will Be Felt by Hezbollah for a Long Time' – confirms that the only thing that matters for Tel Aviv is to profit from the tragedy to demonize Hezbollah, and by association, Iran. That ties in with the US Congress 'Countering Hezbollah in Lebanon’s Military Act of 2019' {S.1886}, which all but orders Beirut to expel Hezbollah from Lebanon.

"And yet Israel has been strangely subdued.

"Muddying the waters even more, Saudi intel – which has access to Mossad, and demonizes Hezbollah way more than Israel – steps in. Intel ops I talked to refuse to go on the record, considering the extreme sensitivity of the subject.

"Still, it must be stressed that a Saudi intel source whose stock in trade is frequent information exchanges with the Mossad, asserts that the original target was Hezbollah missiles stored in Beirut’s port. His story is that Prime Minister Netanyahu was about to take credit for the strike – following up on his tweet. But then the Mossad realized the op had turned horribly wrong and metastasized into a major catastrophe."

On the responsibility of the current government:

"Neither the prime minister nor the president nor any of the cabinet ministers knew that the ammonium nitrate was stored in Hangar 12, former Iranian diplomat Amir Mousavi, the director of the Center for Strategic Studies and International Relations in Tehran, asserts. We’re talking about a massive IED, placed mid-city.

"The bureaucracy at Beirut’s port and the mafias who are actually in charge are closely linked to, among others, the al-Mostaqbal faction, which is led by former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, himself fully backed by the House of Saud.

"The immensely corrupt Hariri was removed from power in October 2019 amid serious protests. His cronies 'disappeared' with at least $20 billion from Lebanon’s treasury – which seriously aggravated the nation’s currency crisis.

"No wonder the current government – Prime Minister Diab backed by Hezbollah – had not been informed about the ammonium nitrate."

You can't get rid of something you don't know exists.

Trump at first said it was a bomb:

"Trump’s eventually walked his comments back after the Pentagon declined to confirm his claim about what the 'generals' had said and his defense secretary, Mark Esper, supported the accident explanation for the blast.

It’s yet another graphic illustration of the war engulfing the Beltway. Trump: attack. Pentagon: accident. 'I don’t think anybody can say right now,' Trump said on Wednesday. 'I’ve heard it both ways.'

"Still, it’s worth noting a report by Iran’s Mehr News Agency that four US Navy reconnaissance planes were spotted near Beirut at the time of the blasts. Is US intel aware of what really happened all along the spectrum of possibilities? [My Emphasis]

Yes, the blast will alter Beirut and Lebanon, but in what way exactly? The IMF and other Atlantacist money vultures. The situation with the ship that delivered the explosives seems like many Red Herrings as the public record details. And then there were some other events closely linked time-wise:

"This scenario, though, does not explain the initial 'fireworks' explosion. And certainly does not explain what no one – at least in the West – is talking about: the deliberate fires set to an Iranian market in Ajam in the UAE, and also to a series of food/agricultural warehouses in Najaf, Iraq, immediately after the Beirut tragedy."

Yet, it appears the French, IMF and the West overall are being rebuffed in their aid offers:

"The Beirut explosion at first sight might be seen as a deadly blow against the Belt and Road Initiative, considering that China regards the connectivity between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon as the cornerstone of the Southwest Asia Belt and Road corridor.

"Yet that may backfire – badly. China and Iran are already positioning themselves as the go-to investors post-blast, in sharp contrast with the IMF.

"Syria and Iran are in the forefront of providing aid to Lebanon. Tehran is sending an emergency hospital, food packages, medicine and medical equipment. Syria opened its borders with Lebanon, dispatched medical teams and is receiving patients from Beirut’s hospitals....

"Plan A for Lebanon would be to progressively drop out of the US-France stranglehold and head straight into Belt and Road as well as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Go East, the Eurasian way. The port and even a great deal of the devastated city, in the medium term, can be quickly and professionally rebuilt by Chinese investment. The Chinese are specialists in port construction and management.

"This avowedly optimistic scenario would imply a purge of the hyper-wealthy, corrupt weapons/drugs/real estate scoundrels of Lebanon’s plutocracy – which in any case scurry away to their tony Paris apartments at the first sign of trouble.

"Couple that with Hezbollah’s very successful social welfare system – which I saw for myself at work last year – having a shot at winning the confidence of the impoverished middle classes and thus becoming the core of the reconstruction."

But remember all those Outlaw US Empire spy planes and other connections Pepe mentions but I didn't cite. The all together super important for Lebanon Grain Silos were obliterated and the Empire's strategy vs. Lebanon is to starve it to death. Plus:

"Now compare this situation with the Empire of Chaos – which needs chaos everywhere, especially across Eurasia, to cover for the coming, Mad Max chaos inside the US."

So, there you have the gist. It's much like COVID-19: Could be natural; could be man-made. If Lebanon goes "Plan A" as Pepe suggests, then it won't matter one bit really, although such a move would be 100% Blow-back if it was man-made. As I wrote at Pepe's FB a few days ago, the Lebanese would be super stupid to take any money from the Parasites of the West. With Hezbollah a main component of the government, I'd expect them to listen to Iran and China very closely while making their main banks public utilities that finally serve the people instead of the rich transients and local Gangsters. We'll learn soon enough what direction's taken. One other outcome: Hezbollah now has an excellent opportunity to show all Lebanese how it can serve the nation as it's said for years is its primary goal.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 8 2020 22:18 utc | 404

S @403--

The Captain's lying. Escobar reports:

"Those by now iconic 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate arrived in Beirut in September 2013 on board the Rhosus, a ship under Moldovan flag, but owned by a Russian national residing on Cyprus sailing from Batumi in Georgia to Mozambique. Rhosus ended up being impounded by Beirut’s Port State Control.

"Subsequently the ship was de facto abandoned by its owner, shady businessman Igor Grechushkin, a Russia national and a resident of Cyprus, who suspiciously 'lost interest' in his relatively precious cargo, not even trying to sell it, dumping style, to pay off his debts

"Grechushkin never paid his crew, who barely survived for several months before being repatriated on humanitarian grounds. The Cypriot government confirmed there was no request to Interpol from Lebanon to arrest him. The whole op feels like a cover – with the real recipients of the ammonium nitrate possibly being 'moderate rebels' in Syria who use it to make IEDs and equip suicide trucks, such as the one that demolished the Al Kindi hospital in Aleppo."

The tale of the ship's the weakest part of this whole charade. IMO, it got to where it was supposed to go and its cargo kept there via corruption arranged by Hariri--a family who've been an abomination for Lebanon and are finally out of the game.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 8 2020 22:30 utc | 405

Escobar's article is at the UNZ Review as well
https://www.unz.com/pescobar/who-profits-from-the-beirut-blast/

AFP had a list of the government buildings taken over by protesters in Lebanon. Government and banking. Looks like the protesters know who's behind all the crap that's been going on in Lebanon.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 8 2020 22:34 utc | 406

karlof1

I didn't find any contradiction between what the ships captain said and Pepe's piece. The crew on that ship were simply f--cked over.

I had thought about this simply being a scheme to get explosives to the Jihadi's in Syria, but Turkey produces a lot of ammonium nitrate and its just a matter of getting over the border.

From what I read a few days back, I had the impression the Russian had just contracted to cart the stuff to Mozambique, Mozambique buying it from the Georgian company. According to the Russian article, the owner of the ship had been paid a million in advance though that sounds a bit much just for freight.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 8 2020 22:46 utc | 407

Thanks Peter @407. It's been made free much quicker than his previous articles. It's at The Sakers.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 8 2020 22:49 utc | 408

Peter AU 1 @408--

For those rioting in Beirut, the ship's tale is irrelevant. Elections aren't the answer. A massive program of aid to those needing it--and there's a huge number--must be implemented ASAP, but without any ties to the West. Hezbollah must mobilize as if for war. The next 48-72 hours will be critical.

Posted by: karlof1 | Aug 8 2020 22:56 utc | 409

karlof1 @Aug8 22:18 #405

Well, Pepe's thoughts don't seem to be worth the price of admission. Unless a reader enjoys Israeli propaganda and analytical nonsense. Moa commenters and theSaker are doing a much better job.

=
And yet Israel has been strangely subdued.

Isn't that exactly what you'd expect from them since their strategy is apparently to confuse and be evasive as they put out hints that Hezbollah had an arms depot or bomb-making factory at the warehouse?

=
Saudi intel source ... the original target was Hezbollah missiles stored in Beirut’s port.

Yeah, just more hints from Israel's friends. Like Trump saying US Generals believed that it was a bomb.

=
Neither the prime minister nor the president nor any of the cabinet ministers knew that the ammonium nitrate was stored in Hangar 12 ...

And yet Anon is now saying he was aware. I think Mina pointed this out. There may be documents that refer to him so he can't deny it.

=
... four US Navy reconnaissance planes were spotted near Beirut at the time of the blasts.

Pepe bolds this like it means something. These flights appear to be routine reconnaissance of Russia bases in northwestern Syria.

=
the blast will alter Beirut and Lebanon, but in what way exactly?

Duh! It's the opening move in a plan to take over Lebanon.

Why would any one read an analyst/reporter that is this clueless?

=
Yet, it appears the French, IMF and the West overall are being rebuffed in their aid offers

And thus we are witnessing a 'color revolution' as H.Schmatz has been describing in the Open Thread.

Pepe is way behind. Partly because of his cluelessness.

=
Empire of Chaos – which needs chaos everywhere, especially across Eurasia, to cover for the coming, Mad Max chaos inside the US.

No one should be waiting on "Max Max chaos inside the US". For now that "chaos" is largely a distraction and means of strengthening the police state. This narrative of Pepe's reveals more cluelessness.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 8 2020 22:59 utc | 410

Please don‘t believe that part about the fireworks. There most definitely was no warehouse specifically designated to fireworks at the port of Beirut, and filled with such. Fireworks as in weddings, New Year‘s Eve and so on. In terms of commerce, Lebanon has nothing much to do with fireworks. Imports in 2018 of fireworks did not exceed 3 mio USD, exports were worth 8,000 USD. So on any given day, you‘d have a hard time finding a mere box of fireworks at the port. You wouldn‘t find a whole container, let alone a whole store room with fireworks neatly stashed.

There may have been other explosive products there, though.

Posted by: Scotch Bingeington | Aug 8 2020 22:59 utc | 411

Scotch Bingeington

The fireworks were confiscated in 2010 and have been stored in the warehouse since then. There was something in the end of the warehouse that smoldered or burnt slowly for some time, then the fireworks and then the ammonium nitrate.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 8 2020 23:05 utc | 412

karlof1 410

Perhaps a bit more than 48 hours, but the vultures are sure trying to get in there. Seeing the way the protesters are targeting the government rather than being a factional fight (I think), perhaps Hezbollah can unite them somehow.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 8 2020 23:09 utc | 413

Pepe seems to think this is just a financial grab by IMF and that Lebanon has the option of turning east and joining China's Belt & Road Initiative.

From the perspective of the Empire, Lebanon has no such option. What is quite likely to have been an engineered explosion is the start of a power grab for Lebanon and will almost certainly result in civil war that quickly turns into a proxy war - what is effectively a western front in the Syrian War.

The Syrian War never ended. IMO the 'Assad must go!' Coalition is still determined to overthrow Assad, expel Hezbollah, and eventually regime-change Iran. This is ideological and they will never stop until they have achieved their goals or been defeated in a decisive battle.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 8 2020 23:17 utc | 414

Thank you for this comprehensive report.

Posted by: Fargo | Aug 8 2020 23:25 utc | 415

Summary of Israeli statements, sly hints, and subtext

We didn't do it

but we'll let our friends muddy the waters:
  • Hasbara: missile attack! ... nuke!

  • Saudis: Israeli's attacked a Hezbollah installation. But they didn't know there was Ammonium Nitrate!! They wouldn't lie to us. Would they?
  • Trump: My Generals say "bomb"

- We had no knowledge of Ammonium Nitrate at that site
trust us

- Must've been a Hezbollah bomb depot
and if we did it, that's why - but we didn't ... probably : )

- We wouldn't harm the Lebanese people - our enemy is Hezbollah
though we've often said that we would do anything to protect Israel and in the past we've conducted airstrikes on Beirut and invaded Lebanon resulting in hundreds of civilian casualties

- Lebanon can choose it's own course
just like the Palestinian people

- We stand ready to provide aid
to Jews in Lebanon and others on a conditional basis with our "partners" like USA, France, EU

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 9 2020 0:29 utc | 416

reante #393

Try that again, reante gamma Flash

Thank you for the excellent link to the slow mo.

However if the fireworks included supplies as well as finished products then there is likely a store of magnesium flake or fine granules as they give the bright white stars seen in fireworks displays. (from my ancient recall that is). They are rolled with gunpowder to coat the flakes as an ignition vector. So a big store of precoated magnesium will give a huge energy bang + bright light then trigger the AN and orange light and smoke. Exactly as in the video.

Pure speculation on my part - yes - and I am not dismissing sabotage by additional installation of devices in that shed. A large enough compression wave will do the trick so perhaps it could have been added recently then the welders called in to fix the hole as a pretext for the entire mass murder onslaught.

FUKUSAIT should never be excluded as a possibility imo. They are all in it together.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 9 2020 0:42 utc | 417

@karlof1 #406:

The Captain's lying.

About what? About making the decision all by himself to enter the port of Beirut?

Dry cargo ship Rhosus en route from the Georgian port of Batumi to Mozambique in 2013. On the way, the captain decided to enter the port of Beirut, but after the vessel arrived there, the authorities checked and detained him, and later confiscated the cargo of ammonium nitrate.

Cause if he’s telling the truth and wasn’t in on any plot, then the plotters had no way of ensuring that the ship would visit the port of Beirut, meaning there was no plot to begin with (at least until the ship entered the port).

Posted by: S | Aug 9 2020 0:42 utc | 418

uncle tungsten

I have that flash in a full screen screen shot. Color or brightness is temperature related. From what I can find, the likes of ammonium nitrate when used for mining has a detonation temperature of 2426 degrees Fahrenheit. Dark glasses are required to look at anything that temperature as it gives of radiation. Detonation velocity is 2700 meters a second for ammonium nitrate.

2750 tons of ammonium nitrate, in just a few milliseconds are at 2426 degrees. As the hot gas expands it quickly cools running back through the temperature colors as it does so.

A few other here could probably write it better but that's the basics of it.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2020 1:07 utc | 419

Peter AU1 #420

Thank you and I am ok with that explanation too. IMO there is no need for a smart 'new tech' missile. It was all in place on the site more or less.

The ships captain story is still not clear. No skipper diverts their journey unless repairs are planned or urgent or fuel is available at a 'special' price and was part of the initial route plan. Perhaps the skipper thought he was picking up additional cargo and was snared by the ulterior plan.

Pepe Escobar has presented the report brilliantly and especially noteworthy is the tying in the wheat silo attacks in Syria on the same day combined with a broader middle east and OBOR analysis.

FOUR USA spy planes in the air at the same time as big bang?? wtf.

True, Macron rushed in so fast, I was astounded at his gross audacity. Evil is at work here.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 9 2020 1:35 utc | 420

uncle tungsten

When he was interviewed for the Russian article, he said the owner of the ship asked to go into Beirut to pick up machinery. He wasn't happy about it as he wasn't sure they could load it but there went in and tried. Weight wasn't an issue as the ship was not fully loaded, it was a matter of finding the space to put it. They put some on the deck and tried putting some on a hold cover but it started to buckle, so they offloaded the machinery again. In that interview, he said the ship wasn't maintained, the owner wouldn't spend any money on it. The Russian article included a photo of him and a couple of crew when they were stranded on the ship in Beirut and the deck was covered in scaly rust. Lebanon signed up to a regional port protocol on seaworthiness of ships so to me, port authorities not letting them sail due to safety issues is probably correct.

I did link the Russian article early in one of these threads. The piece that S has linked is different.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2020 2:13 utc | 421

State of Play

The explosion in Beirut has upset the apple cart. Israel and the Empire are the main beneficiaries.

State of Play as I see it:

  1. There's a high likelihood that this was no accident.
    - Rhosus shipped the material there on purpose;

    - "Rhosus" is, in fact, the name of an ancient Syrian port that is part of southern Turkey;

    - It was stored at the warehouse for an extraordinary period of time despite being a hazard;

    - At some point the fireworks and AN were brought together - a "mistake" so gross that we can't say it wasn't deliberate;

    - The sudden need to shut the warehouse door seems like a cover story;

    - The warehouse was very open and black ops from USA, Israel, or France could have easily gained access and set charges;

    - The Lebanese Government has set a limit of FOUR DAYS for investigation and determination of what caused the massive explosion.


  2. The Assad must go! Coalition now has the upper hand in Lebanon and they will exploit that in every possible way.

  3. Nasrallah appears to have been blind-sided. He prepared for a direct conflict with Israel but not a backdoor assault by Israel's allies (USA, France, Saudis, and their operatives in Lebanon). Hezbollah will likely be pushed out of Lebanon. That might begin slowly, then quicken via civil war.

  4. The ISIS and, possibly Turkey's HTS, will attack Syria from Lebanon. Syria will (of course) be prevented from attacking ISIS bases in Lebanon. And if/when they do, they will be punished with airstrikes/artillery.

  5. Syria will need much more help from its allies (Russia and Iran) to survive.

  6. At the same time there will be growing pressure on Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, and probably Pakistan as well.
    - USA is moving troops from Germany to Poland.

    - USA will continue pressure on Germany to stop/shut down NordStream II (they will likely succeed);

    - USA will continue belligerence toward China;

    - USA has threatened to interdict Iranian oil deliveries to Venezuela.


  7. Turkey and India have sided with the Empire. That is very bad news for China and Russia. Convincing one of these to join with them would've shocked the Empire asshats. Not convincing either to join emboldens the asshats.
    - Turkey/Erdogan got Libyan oil?

    - India got a promise to replace China as main USA supplier?

  8. Central Asian Republics? Russia & China seem to be holding on there.
  9. Africa? Seems to me that the fight intensifies.

  10. South America? USA has a long history here and seems to be holding it together. Sore points for USA are well known: Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba. Possible that they are picked off as increasing pressure is applied to their allies in Asia.
  11. Europe: there is no reason to believe that Europe will not continue to march to USA/UK/NATO drumbeat.
  12. USA domestic situation:
    - USA citizens will feel growing anger toward China as the US economy continues to drag and they feel the economic paid cause by the "China Virus";

    - hyped external threats (Russia, China) are already being used to unite USA-ians and sideline dissent (including BLM and Antifa);

    - Trump will be re-elected


<> <> <> <> <> <>

I welcome any thoughtful response.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 9 2020 2:16 utc | 422

Jackrabbit

I'm waiting to see which way things go. To me, simply setting fire to one end of a building that will burn slow for some time is a bit risky if a major play depends on it. A timed incendiary near the fireworks would be much safer.

But other than that, the normal line up of suspects are hard at work in Lebanon. The average shitkicker there is pissed off at all the elite and the suspects are busy trying to turn all that anger on Hezbollah.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2020 2:56 utc | 423

@ jackrabbit... i don't think it is as simple as you imply with regard to the dynamics around lebannon and area... i think it is much more complicated.. i am not convinced of some of the scenarios you paint either... maybe...

here is magniers latest from yesterday.. if someone already posted it, i missed it - sorry...

THE BEIRUT EXPLOSION: WHO IS RESPONSIBLE?

Posted by: james | Aug 9 2020 3:17 utc | 424

oui posted it way back @358... oh well.. i missed it..

Posted by: james | Aug 9 2020 3:20 utc | 425

Another sobering analysis at Unz Review. Originally published at Platosguns.com

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 9 2020 3:28 utc | 426

If the explosion was planned, there would have been a huge amount 'evidence' incriminating Hezbollah, Syria and Iran swamping the MSM within minutes of the blast.
MH17 - within hours a huge amount of front page "Putin's Missile" ect ect.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2020 3:29 utc | 427

Peter AU1 #428

There is plenty of time to find an intact passport just lying around in the wreckage. Perhaps the progressive leaking of intel signals 'intercepted' or initiated by the circling spy planes could reinforce the propaganda drive.

We have the crony kangaroo court on MH17 about to fart its 'findings' plus the Lebanese court report into the excellent demise of the thief Hariri in a portside bomb blast some years back. Lining up the ducks is a typical propaganda strategy.

Given the enormity of the destruction, there is no need to accelerate events. But then this might just be the first salvo. If implosion of the entire Lebanese society is not immediate then the FUKUSAIT will stage another event.

I suspect other major world powers might yet assert some interest. But time is not of the essence for them.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Aug 9 2020 3:40 utc | 428

Peter AU1 @Aug9 @2:56 #424

The more I learn about AN, the more it seems difficult to make large quantities of AN explode. Some extraordinary steps are usually needed like mixing with fuel oil. Hmpf describes a scenario where high heat and metal oxides could make it explode. But Scotch Bingeington says that Lebanon doesn't use nearly as much fireworks as claimed.

In my analysis I didn't include all the indicators of foul play. Others concerns include:

  • readily salable merchandise such as AN and fireworks were not sold by what we are told is a very corrupt system. The fireworks were supposedly stored for 10-years(!) and the AN for six.
  • there were no fire-fighting equipment on site when there was tons of AN and (supposedly) tons of fireworks.
  • AN and fireworks are placed so close to each other: in the videos of the event we see small explosions (presumably from fireworks) right at the part of the warehouse where the AN is stored!
  • The fire that was burning for an hours was black - it was sustained it was some kind of hydrocarbon fuel. The simple explanation that fireworks that were ignited by a welder/blacksmith is clearly false. Few fires will grow so quickly that they are difficult to put out unless fueled by oil or gas.
  • This explosion is yet another "accident" in a string of recent mysterious accidents and attacks in the middle-east: oil tanker attacks in the Persian Gulf; warehouse attacks in Iraq (subsequently acknowledge by Netanyahu to be Israeli); industrial accidents in Iran.

Some might say that it doesn't matter. That USA-France-Israel are naturally going to take advantage of any crisis. But I think IT DOES MATTER because you have to understand what you are dealing with.

And one thing that people don't understand, or want to waive away because it's unpleasant, is that USA/Empire/Israel have been preparing for confrontations with Hezbollah, Iran, China, Russia, etc. for a very very long time. They have great resources and they are not shy about taking bold action and making opportunities for themselves when possible.

So to me, this was an explosion that has the hallmarks of having been arranged. And if arranged, USA & France & Saudi Arabia and others will be prepared to quickly exploit the event for their benefit. I think we are seeing this with Macron's visit and the color-revolution protesting.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 9 2020 4:03 utc | 429

i honestly don't think they are that smart jackrabbit... i think you give usa and friends too much credit.. it is just like the missile theory with related faked videos and israel claims of doing it... too much bullshit.. combine that with the malfeasance of those who running the financials in lebannon and the political leadership beholden to saudi arabia to a certain extent - again due the money and you have a recipe for disaster.. the mafia ran the port and etc. etc.. i think you are reading more into it then is their... i could be wrong, but so far all roads point to carelessness on the part of lebanese authorities... could usa-israel capitalize on this? sure.. did they - i doubt it..

Posted by: james | Aug 9 2020 4:37 utc | 430

Jackrabbit

There was ten tons stored there since 2010 apparently. They were going off constantly before the first and the second blast.

There was no fireworks involved in the explosion south of Charleville. This bullshit about ammonium nitrate being difficult to set off is just that. Bullshit.
In small amounts and cold, half a stick of gelignite in needed to set off a nitrate diesel mix but when it comes to fire and contaminants, its a different story. When I was younger I helped blow some stumps with the stuff.
Use the Charleville explosion as a benchmark for AN.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2020 4:41 utc | 431

@ 427 uncle tungsten... that is a pretty flimsy article as i read it... thanks for sharing either way!

Posted by: james | Aug 9 2020 4:43 utc | 432

The middle east. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Semitic_languages.svg/1200px-Semitic_languages.svg.png

The Semite peoples all seem to have taken up one tribes supernatural beliefs in one version or another and much of this crap has spread to the rest of the world.
Need something like and old ringer washing machine to put em through and wash and squeeze all the religious crap out. Feed the yankistan bible bashers in after them.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2020 4:55 utc | 433

Peter AU1 @Aug9 4:41 #432

The easier it is to set off, the more strange it is that the AN was stored at the port for so long and with a large amount of fireworks (supposedly) nearby.

This was 2700 tons that went off at once. That would needed A LOT of heat and incendiaries to set it off in that big, seemingly well-ventilated warehouse. And miraculously, that's exactly what was provided by the burning fire and fireworks (supposedly).

In addition to this incendiary miracle, we have the lousy narrative of "welder"/"blacksmith". Any decent welder or blacksmith would be more careful. And workers with chisels and hammers would not light a fire very easily.

Any sensible person that looks into the whole affair, from the Russian owner that abandoned his suspiciously named ship "Rhosus" to the "welder"/"blacksmith" is struck by what nonsense it is through and through. And Lebanese "corruption" doesn't clear up that nonsense - it multiplies it because corrupt officials would not have continued to store readily salable merchandise or willingly kept a hazard that put their lucrative operation at risk.

I'm not saying it couldn't have been an accident. Whether it was or not is a matter for investigation (which the Lebanese government will allow only 4 days to conduct!). I'm saying it's highly likely that highly-motivated, well-resourced actors (like Israel, USA, France) arranged for the right conditions in a place that is widely acknowledged to be corrupt. That is simply Occam's Razor. And much more sensible than the story we are being fed.

Mainstream Western Media takes the exact the opposite tack. They've already declared the event to be a matter of negligence with 100% certainty. "Corrupt officials!" they cry - a cry that conveniently spurs a color revolution. Meanwhile, alt-media is bombarded with crazy talk of missile/nuke attack (complete with doctored videos) and hints that Israel did attack because it was a Hezbollah bomb-making site or bomb depot.

This choice of MSM certainty vs. bat-shit crazy is also suspicious. What it does is conveniently avoid any talk of sabotage.

After wading through all the nonsense, I think I'd believe sharks with frickin' lasers over the MSM's convenient "negligence" narrative. I don't expect everyone to agree with me.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 9 2020 5:35 utc | 434

Detonation only needs to occur in a very localized area. The stuf was bagged so the bags provide some fuel. hmpf mentioned catalysts and a number of them would have been present in the smoke from the fireworks and other sources. Once a localized area detonates, it travels through the stack at 2700 meters per second. Te high velocity flames just prior to each explosion and sounded like jet aircraft I think was ammonium nitrate starting to feed oxygen into the fire.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2020 6:10 utc | 435

NYT has a piece on the ship Rhosus that carried the AN. Turns out it sank in the harbor just across from the warehouse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/world/middleeast/lebanon-explosion-ship.html?partner=IFTTT

Can just see it on google maps.
https://www.google.com.au/maps/@33.9058998,35.5186175,94m/data=!3m1!1e3

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2020 7:33 utc | 436

Thrilled to see someone's efforts to affirm that it was necessarily a fatal accident..."forgetting" the geopolitical context in which this happened ..."forgetting" the stakes that are the end of Hezbollah and the consequent Zionist expansion ... believing in fairy tales at a certain age is a bad sign .

Posted by: LuBa | Aug 9 2020 7:53 utc | 437


Posted by: CarlD | Aug 5 2020 23:46 utc | 182

So please, may I have the name of the Georgian manufacturer?

MADE IN GEORGIA BY LLC "RUSTAVIAZOT" clearly marked on the photo in this Tweet.

https://twitter.com/DimaSadek/status/1291486030458224640

Posted by: Peter Williams | Aug 9 2020 8:34 utc | 438

Quote from an article by Pepe Escobar on Unz yesterday:

Saudi intel – which has access to Mossad, and demonizes Hezbollah way more than Israel – steps in. All the intel ops I talked to refuse to go on the record, considering the extreme sensitivity of the subject.

Still, it must be stressed that a Saudi intel source whose stock in trade is frequent information exchanges with the Mossad, asserts that the original target was Hezbollah missiles stored in Beirut’s port. His story is that Prime Minister Netanyahu was about to take credit for the strike – following up on his tweet. But then the Mossad realized the op had turned horribly wrong and metastasized into a major catastrophe.

https://www.unz.com/pescobar/who-profits-from-the-beirut-blast/

Posted by: vector | Aug 9 2020 9:34 utc | 439

Sabotage or Just Accidents?

26 June: An explosion at a weapons depot in Parchin near Tehran. Hours later, 600 miles south in Shiraz, the power went out.

30 June: An explosion killed 19 people at a medical clinic in central Tehran.

2 July: An 'incident' was reported by Iranian media at the Natanz nuclear facility.

3 July: A huge fire in Shiraz, the same town hit by the power outage days earlier.

4 July: A fire at a power station in Ahvaz in southern Iran.

15 July: Iranian authorities are investigating a blaze that damaged 7 ships in Bushehr.

... the latest in a string of fires and explosions that have raised suspicions of coordinated sabotage

A timeline of fires and explosions at Iranian facilities | I24 |

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=leuoGlvtMiE

Iranian official: Natanz blast caused by 'security breach'

https://www.israelhayom.com/2020/07/23/iranian-official-natanz-blast-was-caused-by-security-breach/

Posted by: Oui | Aug 9 2020 10:03 utc | 440

@ Peter AU1 | Aug 8 2020 22:46 utc | 408

I had thought about this simply being a scheme to get explosives to the Jihadi's in Syria, but Turkey produces a lot of ammonium nitrate and its just a matter of getting over the border.

But Turkey only supplies to their own jihadis, not to the Saudi jihadis. If the Beirut harbour was indeed the Hariri's fiefdom, then it makes sense to presume that it was used to supply the various Saudi factions in the Syrian war. They had a strong presence in the Damascus area and exploded many huge tunnel bombs, quite possibly employing AN from the Beirut warehouse.

Given that Hariri has left center stage in Lebanon and the new government shifted the power balance in Hizbullah's favor, the AN stash left behind in the warehouse suddenly became a big liability. An audit would have discovered the amount of AN gone missing and might threaten to uncloak the trails of the boat's organizers and operators. Or Hizbullah could grab the remaining AN and use it to booby-trap the southern Lebanese border.

The timing of authorities becoming aware of the dangers and demanding intervention and a sudden fire breaking out is suspicious. Where is the proof that welders started a fire, or that they were even at the scene? The photo that was posted of workmen at an open door looks like they were chiseling at a blocked wheel guide, no welding gear of any kind is present.

@ S | Aug 9 2020 0:42 utc | 419

Cause if he’s telling the truth and wasn’t in on any plot, then the plotters had no way of ensuring that the ship would visit the port of Beirut, meaning there was no plot to begin with (at least until the ship entered the port).

So many aspects of the ship's story are shady, including the payment up front of a ridiculous fee and the subsequent abandonment of the ship by the owner, who was never seriously pursued, that it becomes entirely unlikely that the captain wasn't in on the deal. It would have been the captain's duty to request assistance from his embassy on the behest of his crew, which he apparently did not.

The ship's motor breaking down was a great cover story to enter Beirut harbour "unscheduled". If that for some reason had not worked out, the ship could have made a "maintenance" stopover at some Saudi harbour in the Red Sea. That would have made deliveries of the AN to Saudi pets in Damascus a bit harder though.

I remeber that the story of the boat crew stuck in Beirut was international news at the time. In hindsight, it suddenly makes sense why such an insignificant drama was widely reported. The story needed to be sold and planted firmly for our later consumption.

After a few weeks the crew was supposedly able to buy tickets home from the proceeds of selling off the remaining fuel of the ship. This makes no sense on many levels - selling assets while the ship is effectively impounded and has lots of unpaid bills is only one, not contacting his own country's embassy is another. It sounds like another cover story to allow the tale to be spun off the stage after it has served its purpose.

Posted by: Lurk | Aug 9 2020 10:11 utc | 441

The vultures' plan
https://www.marianne.net/monde/michel-santi-l-effroyable-accident-de-beyrouth-va-fermer-davantage-le-liban
Lebanon under intl tutelage (not only economically) with France given a major role!
How on hell can they believe people will be made bowed to accept that, unless they have yet some uglier plans coming soon?

About the "color revo" this is disgusting that ppl here cannot accept that in Algeria or Lebanon a large majority of the population who has been demonstrating for a year, from ALL the different parties, has had enough of seeing the same faces for more than 30 years, especially when all these ppl enjoy luxurious apartments in Europe, own multinational companies, etc. As to HA, it is one thing to enjoy a "great welfare system" thanks to them (but not water or electricity 24/7), and another to go to your neighborhood "charity clinic" where smiling people dressed in long robes offer you their holy books and recommendations. Make me think of when European hospitals were entirely in the Church hands. I defy someone to prove me then than Spain 1936 was not a color revo (red, of course)! That's probably what Franco claimed back then!

Posted by: Mina | Aug 9 2020 10:17 utc | 442

Rabbit,
indeed the time frame is interesting too
right before the intl court verdict
right at the end of the eid holidays, when no one is yet back on real duty
plus the covid mayhem

Posted by: Mina | Aug 9 2020 10:41 utc | 443

I don't believe that exotic catalysts like metal oxides from fireworks are needed to explain the ammonium nitrate catching fire, exploding and subsequently massively detonating.

The AN had been sitting for years in a high humidity environment and the prills may have been slightly efflorescing, causing their surface to become very rough and porous.

If you look at the photos of the AN bags in the warehouse, it is apparent how much dust has accumulated on the bags. City dust is very sooty, containing diesel exhaust particles and dust from car tires. When finely dispersed sooty material gets incorporated into the AN flowers, that makes a higly explosive mixture.

AN prills that were shielded from the dust but did effloresce would still have been immersed the flammable fuel-rich vapors of the oxygen-starved fire that burned inside the warehouse, also creating an explosive mixture.

There only needs to be one point in the stack of AN that catches fire and deflagrates and explodes. The resultant pressure wave into the confined bulk of the AN causes it to detonate, at which point the detonation wave rips through all of the rest of the AN and makes it detonate too.

Posted by: Lurk | Aug 9 2020 11:35 utc | 444

Video where the fireworks are clearly visible
https://www.newsflare.com/video/371810/unseen-footage-shows-moment-of-beirut-explosion-in-4k-slow-motion

Timeline
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/beirut-firefighters-site-deadly-explosion-200807130452562.html

"Let’s be clear who they are, those responsible: every last grizzled warlord and their underachieving sons, nephews and sons-in-law who hold the highest seats of power. Every loyalist they have personally picked and manoeuvred into influential positions across every conceivable sector, public and private. Every minister and bureaucrat too self-interested or too craven to speak up. This mafia is what is broadly referred to in Lebanon as the “political class”; the “ruling elite”."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/09/prepare-the-nooses-we-will-not-forgive-the-men-who-did-this-to-beirut

Not difficult to find thugs for hire in a deprived country
https://twitter.com/LeilZahra/status/1292367305230475264

Posted by: Mina | Aug 9 2020 11:55 utc | 445

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 9 2020 5:35 utc | 434

Mainstream Western Media takes the exact the opposite tack [wrt Israel, USA, France having arranged for the right conditions for the tragedy]. They've already declared the event to be a matter of negligence with 100% certainty. "Corrupt officials!" they cry - a cry that conveniently spurs a color revolution. Meanwhile, alt-media is bombarded with crazy talk of missile/nuke attack (complete with doctored videos) and hints that Israel did attack because it was a Hezbollah bomb-making site or bomb depot.

This choice of MSM certainty vs. bat-shit crazy is also suspicious. What it does is conveniently avoid any talk of sabotage. (my emphasis)

This is a recurrent theme, karlof1 (if I'm not mistaken) evoked it in this thread too recalling COVID-19. One that certainly applies, one which is worth keeping in mind.

After wading through all the nonsense, I think I'd believe sharks with frickin' lasers over the MSM's convenient "negligence" narrative. I don't expect everyone to agree with me.

I am not exactly ready to believe in sharks with lasers - Yo no creo en brujas, pero que las hay, las hay.

Thumbs up Jackrabit, Great Analysis!

Posted by: Vasco da Gama | Aug 9 2020 12:00 utc | 446

@ Jackrabbit | Aug 9 2020 2:16 utc | 422

I'll agree that some forces are attemptimg to play this as a gambit against Hizbullah, but that is as far as the agreement goes.

Hizbullah and its Lebanese sympathizers are the least affected by the crises and disaster.

There is no official mandate from the Lebanese government for a Franco-Atlantic intervention nor will there be one as a result of hypothetical new elections. Similarly will there be no mandate from the UN security councel, as Russia and China will for sure veto any such attempt.

A full-blown civil war is IMHO unlikely, as all parties know that Hizbullah is not the cause of the corruption and socio-political dysfunctional state. Hizbullah has been maneuvering carefully in Lebanon and if they keep doing just that, it will be difficult for rivals to find a weak spot to attack. The falangists and the Saudi proxies currently do not have the power to stand up to the Lebanese army.

The Assad must go! Coalition definitely does not have the upper hand in Lebanon, quite to the contrary, they stand to risk losing a lot if the colonialist-imposed status-quo is overturned and their vassals inside Lebanon are forced to take a back seat.

Nobody in their right mind is going to invite Turkey into their country, after Turkey's recent aggressive meddling in the region. Even if Erdogan wants a foothold in Lebanon (surely he does), nobody will give him an inch. If he tries, Macron will be first to stand in his way, even before any Lebanese themselves.

BTW it seems that Turkey is no longer on the NATO leash. It is not openly discussed, as it is a bit embarrassing because there is no protocol to scrap a membership, but Turkey is no longer in a virtual war with fellow NATO member Greece alone, but now also with France. The EU NATO members have been quite annoyed with the Turks for a while and have already cancelled the pretense of Turkish EU membership years ago and the rift has only been growing steadily. The Turks are not on Russia's leash either, they are trying to play all the sides. And they may be lost in a terrible delusion of neo-ottomanism. It is not a pretty sight to behold, especially for the neighbours.

There will be no more ISIS resurgence, certainly not in Lebanon. That ship has sailed and even the Saudis are finished with it. The only ISIS that you'll find anymore is strangely always located in close proximity to USA bases and operations.

Finally, USA is slowly leaving Germany it seems. They will only be in Poland for so long, as the Poles will not be willing nor capable to pay for long for the circus that they invited to town. Most Germans are happy to see the USA finally leave, something that was long overdue after the end of the cold war and the reunification of Germany. The Russians had long left east-Germany, so why did the USA hang about for so long? Do not underestimate the silent resentment in Germany over the prolonged occupation by the USA.

This occupation has also had many economical consequences and it seems the USA has been pushing it recently, in particular with the North Stream II. Germany is not giving up on that, because they are not giving up on reestablishing Europe as a economic powerhouse with Berlin at its center. The German-Russian entente is looming peacefully and this agonizes Uncle Sam and his little Cousin Blimey. Hence BREXIT.

Posted by: Lurk | Aug 9 2020 12:26 utc | 447


Global power games could blow the whole Middle East apart [_link]

— Guardian Opinion (@guardianopinion) August 9, 2020

Counting the Costs: Avoiding Another War Between Israel and Hezbollah
[Book by Assaf Orion and Nicholas Blanford]

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Counting-the-Cost-FINAL.pdf

To what purpose a call for “revolution” ending in anarchy ... aren’t Libya and Syria prime examples for chaos and obliteration? A call for neocon policy. Macron already in the gates to retake the colony for the Atlanticists.

International interference has been a major factor in division especially since 2000 and the reign of Rafiq Hariri.

How had Lebanon advanced beyond the destruction of the previous Civil War ??

The culprit is back ... Macron’s visit to Beirut:

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2018/04/05/colonialism-and-imperialism-the-case-of-lebanon/

Partitioning the Middle East, creating a new nation, Mount Lebanon mutasarifiya

... one must recognise the causes: starting, at least, when France began its efforts to transform an Ottoman governorate into its bastion in the East and continuing with the current neoliberal world economic system nourishing the few at the expense of the many.

Sanitized copy - release 2012-02-16

Lebanon’s Ports: Gateways for Instability and Terrorism (CIA 1986)
https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP87T01127R001201150001-7.pdf

Posted by: Oui | Aug 9 2020 12:36 utc | 448

Just looking at the picture of the workers at the warehouse again. There is a lot of debris on the ground and in the door track. That door looks like it's been open for awhile and would explain why they seem to be trying to remove something in the way of the door. Not exactly Fort knox for any would be saboteur. Looks like a few cigarette butt's on the ground as well. Is this picture definitely from the time of the incident?
Looks like different cargo towards the back wall. More square without the canvas handles.

Posted by: PleaseBeleafMe | Aug 9 2020 12:38 utc | 449

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/hundreds-protesters-injured-anger-simmers-beirut-live-200808234355971.html
former PM denies being aware of the AN (possible source of the confusion about Aoun being aware or not)
and
Lebanon's Christian Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rai called on the cabinet to resign as it cannot "change the way it governs" the country and help it to recover from Tuesday's catastrophic explosion. (MEMO: he never called for 'regime change' in Syria and just express the desperation on the ground... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-patriarch/patriarch-warns-syrians-of-reliving-lebanons-errors-idUSBRE91909D20130210)

and
The huge ammonium nitrate explosion in Beirut's port that devastated much of the city left a crater 43 metres (141 feet) deep, a security official.

Posted by: Mina | Aug 9 2020 12:53 utc | 450

@ Mina | Aug 9 2020 12:53 utc | 450

The huge ammonium nitrate explosion in Beirut's port that devastated much of the city left a crater 43 metres (141 feet) deep, a security official.

The full quote is:

The huge chemical explosion that hit Beirut’s port, devastating large parts of the Lebanese capital and claiming over 150 lives, left a 43-meter (141 foot) deep crater, a security official said Sunday.

“The explosion in the port left a crater 43 meters deep”, the official told AFP, citing reports by French experts conducting an assessment of the disaster area.

(source)

Which is weird if you think about it. Why would Agence France Presse cite an (unnamed) security official, citing (unreferenced) reports by French experts. It's just... convoluted.

I have a problem with these claims. How did the "French experts" perform their depth sounding and analysis. Looking at aireal photography, it doesn't look like a deep crater lake at all:

cratel lake image 1
crater lake image 2

Where is all the debris from the crater? 43 meters times 1/3rd of the surface of the crater isa lot of material, where did it all go to?

The cargo pier in Beirut Port has a depth of 7 to 9 meters:
https://www.searates.com/port/beirut_lb.htm

MSM are all parroting these claims that make no sense upon closer inspection.

Posted by: Lurk | Aug 9 2020 13:51 utc | 451

Beirut would be ‘erased’ had full chemical load exploded, bulk likely stolen: Expert

The amount of ammonium nitrate which led to the deadly Beirut explosion must have been much less than the original stockpile or else the Lebanese capital would have been “erased,” Russian military expert Viktor Murakhovsky said.

The Beirut blast, which claimed the lives of at least 158 people and injured 6,000 others, was so intense it smashed masonry, shattered windows, sucked furniture out of apartments onto the streets and left almost 300,000 people in disaster-stricken Beirut without homes fit to live in, according to Lebanese officials.

For all the latest headlines follow our Google News channel online or via the app.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun had said the explosion was due to a stockpile of 2,750 tonnes of the industrial chemical ammonium nitrate, used in fertilizers and explosives, catching fire after having been stored at the port since 2013 without safety measures.

However, Murakhovsky said that if the full amount announced by Lebanese officials did explode, it would have erased Beirut off the map.

The military expert added in an interview with Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda that it is much more likely that large amounts from such a stockpile were stolen over the years.

Lebanon’s former administrative development minister May Chidiac said on Friday that ammonium nitrate is not used by armies but rather by “terrorist organizations.”

She said in a tweet: “2,700 tonnes seized six years ago was being used for military targets,” suggesting that the explosion could have been an attempt to “divert attention away from missing quantities.”

Chidiac also cited Murakhovsky’s analysis: “Russian expert Viktor Murakhovsky said that certainly most of the ammonium nitrate was stolen over a period of six years, because the explosion would have definitely wiped Beirut off the map. Based on the blast, it appears the amount of ammonium nitrate [that exploded] did not exceed 300 tonnes.”

A Beirut-based journalist shared pictures of what she said were the bags of ammonium nitrate at the port days prior to the explosion, adding: “This is how the death bags were piled up. Hard to believe this would meet minimum standards anywhere in the world.”

(source)

Posted by: Lurk | Aug 9 2020 14:15 utc | 452

"French experts"
see Magnier today
https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1292325406486540288

Posted by: Mina | Aug 9 2020 14:41 utc | 453

More "grassroots" support for Lebanese Spring:

https://mobile.twitter.com/denijeg/status/1292456849476915200

Posted by: Lurk | Aug 9 2020 15:39 utc | 454

Well,French experts are probably the same that were in play "investigating" and covering up their findings about the huge blast in Toulouse,ten days after 9/11.At the time most people thoufght it was an islamist attack,but then they sais it was just an accident,with ammonitrate.

Any news on the judge's identity who reportedly made impossible the transfer of this material in Beirut,causing it to stay over the years?

Does anyone think Macron will provide radar images to Aoun ?

Posted by: willie | Aug 9 2020 15:41 utc | 455

Lurk @Aug9 15:39 #454

Haha... great find.

Color revolution confirmed.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 9 2020 16:06 utc | 456

@ Lurk | Aug 9 2020 14:15 utc | 452 ... thanks.. that is very interesting and informative...

Posted by: james | Aug 9 2020 16:28 utc | 457

Elijah Magnier seems to be saying that:

1) The *fireworks* store combusted _after_ the A.N store combusted ... That confuses me (especially because of the videos showing minutes of fireworks explosion footage).
2) There were additional containers of an unknown toxic material that were stored in one or more of the exploded warehouses that may have contributed in some way to the explosion ... But the provenance of this information is uncertain ...

Source podcast interview with Magnier: https://youtu.be/PehDvbvEAtA?t=1142

Posted by: Traiano | Aug 9 2020 17:06 utc | 458

Posted by: Traiano | Aug 9 2020 17:06 utc | 458

1) the actual word employed is "secondary" and the word itself is first used by the interviewer, Magnier may have accepted it in the sense of "secondary" in energy power.

2) he does mention "containers with poisonous material" which he is unable to ascertain where it came from or its destination due to lack of corroborating documents. It does lead one to think were did he get the information, maybe the reason he does not include any reference to it in his last article.

Posted by: Vasco da Gama | Aug 9 2020 18:09 utc | 459

Red Propaganda

Red States media have identical talking points in the presidential election campaign as Red Square in Moscow

Fox News FP “expert” Walid Phares - https://mobile.twitter.com/WalidPhares/status/1292251256493420545

#whitesuoremacy #misogyny #iran

Russian military expert Viktor Murakhovsky

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2020/08/09/Beirut-would-be-erased-had-full-chemical-load-exploded-bulk-likely-stolen-Expert.html

Posted by: Oui | Aug 9 2020 18:33 utc | 460

uncle tungsten @417

You're welcome and thank you for your reflections on fireworks combustion which I am duly considering. Naturally the fireworks narrative could be cover for plausible deniability. The Sparks could also be exploding wires from an electromagnetic charge couldn't they? I don't think they could be gamma sparks.

In the bird video there is an anomalous cloud event after the bird passes and just before the explosion, at the leftmost end of the cloud.

https://youtu.be/A0qQOK5gzUw

If one doesn't believe interstellar travel exists in this universe then one likely isn't going to be too interested in this line of thought. I find it worthwhile because I have read the book Unconventional Flying Objects, by Paul R. Hill, and he makes the convincing case that practical PEA is an industrial reality.


Posted by: reante | Aug 9 2020 21:10 utc | 461

@ Oui | Aug 9 2020 18:33 utc | 460

There is a clear difference between the two claims: Walid Phares tries to blame Hizbullah for the speculative embezzlement of the AN, compketely disregarding the well known fact that the Beirut Port was a fiefdom of the Hariri clan and associates, not Hizbullah.

The Russian guy simply points out that he thinks that the extent of destruction does not match the nominal amount of AN present and suggests that large quantities must have been embezzled.

So, Walid Phares takes a logical speculation in the rational sphere and adds an illogical speculation in the political sphere. And you are amplifying it. Say no more, say no more.

Posted by: Lurk | Aug 9 2020 22:31 utc | 462

@ reante | Aug 9 2020 21:10 utc | 461

The emissions of electrical discharge sparks look very different from the emissions of burning transition metal salts typical!y used in fireworks, both in the spectral domain and in the time domain.

Posted by: Lurk | Aug 9 2020 22:38 utc | 463

b put up this table on TNT equivalency values
https://www.moonofalabama.org/images10/beirut4.jpg

Bagged AN 20% the explosive power of TNT. One 20% of 2750 = 550

If it all detonated, the TNT equivalent is 550 tons. I guess the force of the blast could be calculated in TNT equivalent from seismic readings.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 9 2020 22:47 utc | 464

I can not find the new now to link it here, but if I do not recall bad, it was Russian High Representative of the Russian Federation ot Lebanon who affirms that only a tiny fraction of the 2750 tones of AN exploded in the blasts, otherwise the whole Beirut would have been wiped out...

It seesm that most part of the AN was stolen and smugled through all these years...

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Aug 9 2020 23:45 utc | 465

@ H.Schmatz | Aug 9 2020 23:45 utc | 465 Scroll up to Lurk's comment @ 452 where the article & link to source can be found. Viktor is not a Russian High Representative of the Russian Federation of Lebanon, but writes for Arsenal of the Fatherland.

Posted by: boon | Aug 10 2020 0:11 utc | 466

A comparison of the Beirut and Tainjin explosions.

Beirut
Data collected by the United States Geological Survey shows that the massive explosion was so powerful, it created seismic waves equivalent of a magnitude 3.3 earthquake.
https://www.9news.com.au/world/beirut-explosion-videos-capture-horror-in-lebanon/eea5841a-ef64-4d32-b651-ff006a8d224c

Tainjun
According to the China Earthquake Administration's official account on Weibo, the first explosion was registered at a magnitude of 2.3 and the second at 2.9.

Even the United States Geological Survey registered the explosions as seismic events. The Guardian newspaper quotes USGS geophysicist John Bellini as saying that it is rare to detect seismological activity from events such as the Tianjin explosion.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-33901206

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 10 2020 1:40 utc | 467

BBC video beginning of fire h/t Quentin Sommerville
https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1292583994194833409

After studying the layout of docks and warehouses, I must suggest this is warehouse #11.
In first frame one sees a ship on dockside and at 0:14 the sign on the gate next to the red container reads warehouse #11.
The location of video is between warehouse and grain silo.

Confusion point of entry, warehouse 12 and error in initial reports of warehouse 9.

Tweet by Elijah Magnier
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1291800814911131653.html

Posted by: Oui | Aug 10 2020 9:05 utc | 468

USGS M 3.3 Explosion - 1 km ENE of Beirut, Lebanon

The Beirut, Lebanon explosion was processed using the same basic methods that we use for regional earthquakes. To remove uncertainties in the location associated with seismic methods, we fix the location to the location seen in videos of the blast. Standard methods were used to calculate the magnitude. The reported magnitude is not directly comparable to an earthquake of similar size because the explosion occurred at the surface where seismic waves are not as efficiently generated. News reports state the explosion was caused by 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate which is roughly equivalent to 1100 tons of TNT.

… an estimated 800 tons of ammonium nitrate fueled a warehouse explosion that leveled part of a port in the Chinese city of Tianjin.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/08/deadly-history-ammonium-nitrate-explosive-linked-to-beirut-blast/

Posted by: Oui | Aug 10 2020 9:39 utc | 469

One - Two -Three in Sunni-Shia Divide

Lessons Learned in Iraq, Forgotten in Syria

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/lessons-learned-in-iraq-forgotten-in-syria/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Iraq - Syria - Lebanon ... there is another nation to de-construct. Chaos theory.

Posted by: Oui | Aug 11 2020 12:23 utc | 470

DOG THAT DIDN'T BARK indicates that the explosion was arranged.

Reuters: Exclusive: Lebanon's leaders were warned in July about explosives at port - documents

LMFAO

This headline is designed to tarnish the current reformist government (which has resigned but still operates in a caretaker role). Yet the article only raises an important question: why wasn't the government told sooner?

We are told that for years efforts were made by the port authority to remove the AN but these entreaties were blocked by the judiciary. Suspiciously a Judicial ruling was made in January - just before the current REFORMIST government assumed power! - that ordered, or allowed for, the removal of the AN but nothing was done.

When the current government was told about the hazard they reacted appropriately - requesting that the ammonium nitrate be removed from the port.

But if efforts to remove the AN were made FOR YEARS and it still wasn't removed immediately after the court order then why didn't anyone inform the REFORMIST government? Why the delay? A delay that is just long enough to implicate the reformist government?

There is only one inescapable conclusion: The new government wasn't informed because the new government would immediately act to remedy the hazardous situation. Which is exactly what they did when they were informed in July.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 12 2020 15:12 utc | 471

Disposing of blasting caps

This short demonstration shows a result that is consistent with blasting caps as causing the roar of small explosions that we see before the ammonium nitrate is set off.

My theory: the small Beirut explosions were blasting caps, not "fireworks".

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 12 2020 16:25 utc | 472

@ Jackrabbit | Aug 12 2020 16:25 utc | 472

Nope, sounds like these guys were busy disposing of No8 caps or the like. No8 cap: ~0.3g of LA + 0.6-0.8g of stabilized PETN or RDX.
Anything smaller than a 50g Primer/booster doesn't have a chance to initiate prilled or powdered AN reliably, not even remotely. A No8, simply put, does nothing to prilled AN in terms of starting a detonative decomposition of the AN.

Again, once set lit large quantities of explosives, AN too, do not require shock initiation, eventually they will transit from deflagration to detonation anyway. It's just a matter of hotspot generation in the respective material.

Posted by: Hmpf | Aug 12 2020 16:57 utc | 473

How did they come up with the number of 2,750 tonnes ammonium nitrate? The cargo ship Rhosus had a gross tonnage of 1,900 tons. So how could the vessel have a cargo of 2,750 tonnes. If the source was the article in The Arrest/Ship Arrested, did they make an error with the numbers?

Posted by: Ari | Aug 12 2020 18:33 utc | 474

Hmpf @Aug12 16:57 #473

Thanks for your reply. Unfortunately, I don't really understand your objection.

That video was just an example. What we saw in the lead-up to the AN explosion did seem to be more forceful. So your comment actually strengthens my theory.

You say AN "do not require shock initiation" but that doesn't mean it shock initiation wouldn't set it off. When used as an explosive, I doubt people are content to let sit for years until it explodes. They use something that will cause it to explode. I doubt that fuse alone is enough.

You don't explain what "hotspot generation in the respective material" means. Again, I'd guess that a fuse alone is not sufficient and/or might set off only part of the AN.

Lastly, you don't address any of the circumstances surround the explosion. The AN was shipped as explosive in 2013. Wouldn't it make sense to include blasting caps as part of that shipment? And when the AN was off-loaded in Beirut - for safety because they recognized that it was dangerous! - do you think they put it with fireworks or with the blasting caps? Not likely.

So when were the fireworks or blasting caps relocated to the warehouse with AN? And why?

Fast forward to present day. If you're the port manager and you are told that you have to move the AN, then maybe you move the blasting caps to the AN in preparation for moving them all together? As a warehouse manager, there's some logic to that even though they should know better. And that would be a cover story to fall back on if the initial cover story ("fireworks" and welders/blacksmiths) didn't pan out.

IMO it's highly likely that the person/persons that ordered the incendiaries (whether fireworks or blasting caps) moved to the AN warehouse KNEW that it was unsafe and would create the conditions for an explosion. They did it because an explosion is exactly what was desired so as to create conditions for a color revolution and possibly civil war.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 12 2020 18:42 utc | 475

Well the good news is everyone can go back to shopping, consuming, being entertained and enjoying new normal life.

All, and I mean fucking ALL events are now reduced to "conspiracy Theory" , "debunked", "incompetence", or ooopsie "accident".

There will not be any sort of Legal Justice, accountability, responsibility or Societal values approaching truth or honesty.

Solidified and substantiated Insanity now reigns supreme poisoning all of Humanity. You may find and enjoy your little pleasure pockets of individualistic gratification- but society divided and humanity as a whole are dead and rotten to the core.

In the modern world of humans fucking things up...

In a world now fully saturated with the 3 poisons (greed, anger, delusion)...what affects (if any) can be attributed to "accidents"?

When it comes to humans there are no accidents. Nature does not have accidents, nor does the Universe. Physics, Probability and karma do not make mistakes or have accidents.

Humans can be capable of anything, and incapable of everything.


Posted by: CitizenX | Aug 12 2020 19:52 utc | 476

In this show conducted by Marwa Osman, Lebanese journalist, when interviewing Maan Bachour, Lebanese and former secretary general of Arab National Congres, both express what they along with all Lebanese feel in their guts..."That this was not an accident"...

Minute 7 footage...

https://twitter.com/Marwa__Osman/status/1293482149790744576

Both, along with all the Lebanese people, except may be Samir Geagea and some luminaries posting here, must be idiots.. or simpletons...

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Aug 12 2020 21:15 utc | 477

@ Jackrabbit | Aug 12 2020 18:42 utc | 475

Basically, hotspot generation means -
achieving a state of compression so that the CJ-Point (where Rayleigh- and Hugoniot curves meet) in the pV-diagram is reached or exceeded and subsequently so-called Neumann spikes will occur, these spikes are the ones that trigger the detonation. When a sufficient mass of energetic material burns there's lots of compression waves and rarefaction waves generated on a microscopic level - after all the material in crystalline or liquid state is not entirely homogeneous, far from it - and, eventually, at some localized point in that mass the conditions will be right to trigger such a spike and, subsequently, if the critical diameter, or rather the critical volume, of the energetic material is met, a detonation reaction will start. Additionally, if there is molten explosive material boiling, then there are many tiny bubbles floating in the liquid which in itself is very much sensitizing the material (in regards of probable hotspot generation), making it prone to a runaway reaction. E.g. commercial slurries are making use of this effect.

For storage no one would ever place equipment such as blasting caps, primers, boosters or more sensitive materials such as e.g. gelignites... next to a large quantity of explosives. Besides that being a. totally illegal and b. a massive breach of rules, it'd also be suicidal. Of course, ignorance or negligence would be another matter.

Of course it would very well be possible to trigger a detonation if a, say, 30mm HE shell gets thrown into the burning mass, but assuming this catastrophe was triggered by some kind of explosive device would require some rock solid proof. The images and videos of the event, at least those that I've seen, simply do not support such a claim.

Posted by: Hmpf | Aug 12 2020 21:38 utc | 478

Both, along with all the Lebanese people, except may be Samir Geagea and some luminaries posting here, must be idiots.. or simpletons...

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Aug 12 2020 21:15 utc | 477


_----------

Lol ..... This you?

    I can not find the new now to link it here, but if I do not recall bad, it was Russian High Representative of the Russian Federation ot Lebanon who affirms that only a tiny fraction of the 2750 tones of AN exploded in the blasts, otherwise the whole Beirut would have been wiped out...

    It seesm that most part of the AN was stolen and smugled through all these years...

    Posted by: H.Schmatz | Aug 9 2020 23:45 utc | 465

    @ H.Schmatz | Aug 9 2020 23:45 utc | 465 Scroll up to Lurk's comment @ 452 where the article & link to source can be found. Viktor is not a Russian High Representative of the Russian Federation of Lebanon, but writes for Arsenal of the Fatherland.

    Posted by: boon | Aug 10 2020 0:11 utc | 466


Schmatz reads something about stolen AN written by what is essentially "some random russian dude on the intarwebz" and in his pathetically miniscule noggin that gets translated into an official statement by the (probably non existent?) " Russian High Representative of the Russian Federation to Lebanon". Roflmao

Schmatz, after that whopping great faux pas, given what goes on in your head it would be very ill-advised of you to go around calling anyone else an idiot or a simpleton


Posted by: Contra-Conspiraloon | Aug 12 2020 22:16 utc | 479

Hmpf @Aug12 21:38 #478

Thanks Hmpf. I'm always impressed by the depth of knowledge of moa commenters like yourself.

But I have to disagree with you here:

... assuming this catastrophe was triggered by some kind of explosive device would require some rock solid proof. The images and videos of the event, at least those that I've seen, simply do not support such a claim.

We clearly see small explosions, which have been characterized as "fireworks", before the AN is detonated. At one point there is a sizable explosion that blows off the roof. I assume that explosion compressed the AN. A few seconds later the small explosions start again and the BOOM! The AN explodes.

And I'm surprised at your lack of cynicism when you say:

For storage no one would ever place equipment such as blasting caps, primers, boosters or more sensitive materials ... next to a large quantity of explosives... Of course, ignorance or negligence would be another matter.

Only ignorance or negligence? You have not considered a deliberate explosion arranged with corrupt authorities to further an agenda?

Would you say that the small explosions look more like fireworks or blasting caps (the larger blasting caps that would be used with AN)? Why and why not?

We've already seen a partial walk-back of that narrative as "welders/blacksmiths" has been replaced with simple workmen. When/if the authorities acknowledge that the small explosions were blasting caps, then the entire initial narrative will have fallen apart.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 12 2020 22:40 utc | 480

Conspira loon,

Do not twist what I said, it's you and your team who are calling everybody here who does not fit your "narrative" idiots and simpletons.

I am seeing that like a good ole operative you are keeping record of anything I write...

Posted by: H. Schmatz | Aug 12 2020 22:45 utc | 481

Schmatz, the tripe you write is recorded on this very website. No one else needs to "keep a record" of it, when you're dumb enough to publish it here, for all to see, and laugh at.

Posted by: Contra-Conspiraloon | Aug 12 2020 22:50 utc | 482

Conspira loon,

Worried because just you became aware most people in Lebanon believes it really was an attack?

Go change your diapers and try not to step on Lebanese border fence... Anda!

Posted by: H. Schmatz | Aug 12 2020 22:58 utc | 483

Jackrabbit

Explosions of any kind are not required to set off AN. The load that detonated near Charleville had no explosive device and I think a much smaller fire than occurred at Beirut.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 12 2020 23:39 utc | 484

Peter AU1 @Aug12 23:39 #484

Explosions of any kind are not required to set off AN.

Yes. I understand that. I also understand that long-term storage in poor conditions can make AN more susceptible to heat and compression.

But I think the key to understanding what happened is:

  1. what caused the fire;
  2. what caused the small explosions before the AN explosion;
  3. what caused the explosion that blew the roof off the building.

The AN was in the prill form used for mining explosives and was (supposedly) being transported to a mining company. Miners mix AN with fuel oil to make "ANFO" and then it is exploded using a special high-explosive detonator.

But it can also be detonated with a high-energy blasting cap as explained here:

When densely packed and the prills crushed, it cab[sic] be detonated by a high energy (#12) blasting cap. However, for reliability, I would still prefer to add a small tetryl booster.

It's also possible that the Rhosus was carrying blasting caps to be used separately (not with the AN).

Has anyone seen a cargo manifest for the Rhosus?

=

HOW did the small explosives (which we are told are 10-year-old fireworks!) come to be near the AN? It doesn't make sense that the AN was moved off the ship to a place where explosives were being stored because the AN was moved off the ship specifically because AN is an explosive hazard.

So it's logical to assume that the small explosives were moved to where the AN was sometime after the AN was stored. That leads to the question of WHEN and WHY.

One possibility is that items were moved to the AN warehouse as part of staging a move. This could apply to fireworks or blasting caps. But the fireworks story is fishy:

  1. It was used as part of the initial "accident" narrative because fireworks are more easily ignited (by "welders"/"blacksmiths"!);

  2. It's hard to believe that fireworks would be stored for 10-years (they would be have been stolen or degraded);
  3. The white color of the small explosions and their regularity don't look like "fireworks".

=
The load that detonated near Charleville had no explosive device and I think a much smaller fire ...

The Charleville truck rolled and the AN mixed with diesel fuel. So that example isn't relevant.

<> <> <> <> <> <>

You have nothing to say about my DOG THAT DIDN'T BARK? comment @Aug12 15:12 #471?

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 13 2020 2:37 utc | 485

Jackrabbit

I tend to think it was fireworks - I believe that was on one of the Lebanese reports, but regardless of what type of explosive that was stored with the AN, it was the Lebanese port authorities that stacked them together and Lebanese authorities that kept the AN stored at the warehouse. It comes down to whether the fire was started deliberately or accidentally while maintenance was carried out. Even if the fire was started deliberately, it could not have occurred without the criminal negligence of Lebanese authorities. I believe this is why Nasrallah believes Lebanon must get its own house in order before looking fore outside enemies or scapegoats.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 13 2020 2:56 utc | 486

Peter AU1 @Aug13 2:56 #486

I tend to think it was fireworks ...

Well, I find it hard to ignore:
  1. The Dog That Didn't Bark: After supposedly trying to move the AN for years, no one informed the REFORMIST Govt of the hazard for more than 6 months.
  2. Bullshit narrative-1: "Welders"/"Blacksmiths" have never been identified and that part of the narrative has now changed to simply "workmen".
  3. Bullshit narrative-2: The claim that fireworks were stored for 10-years in a port warehouse (and then worked flawlessly) run by super-corrupt officials makes little sense for reasons I've already stated. But something was causing those small explosions - which didn't have the variety in color and intensity that one would expect from fireworks to me.
  4. Bullshit narrative-3: the strange story of the Rhosus and how it got to Beirut, plus the scant info about who owns the AN screams black market arms sales and/or intelligence agency(s).

  5. Missing/destroyed documents: Has anyone seen a Rhosus cargo manifest? Has anyone seen a work order? Were those documents conveniently destroyed by the fake protesters?
  6. Geopolitics: The geo-political benefit to Israel and her Western allies of eliminating Hezbollah from government and disrupting their operations via civil war is impossible to ignore. I have no doubt they would blow up a port if that would advance such goals (which it has).

We may never know what exactly happened. But there's plenty of reason to question the official narrative.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 13 2020 4:04 utc | 487

Forgot this one:

7. Fits a Pattern: the Beirut explosion was the latest in a series of mysterious destruction: tanker attacks in the Persian Gulf (which the West blamed on Iran with out evidence); warehouses in Iraq (Netanyahu acknowledge that Israel was responsible); and "industrial accidents" in Iran.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 13 2020 4:29 utc | 488

@ Jackrabbit # 487 who wrote
"
Bullshit narrative-1: "Welders"/"Blacksmiths" have never been identified and that part of the narrative has now changed to simply "workmen".
"

The other questions about this are who ordered these workers to do what and did they really cause the blast?

Posted by: psychohistorian | Aug 13 2020 4:49 utc | 489

Worried because just you became aware most people in Lebanon believes it really was an attack?

Go change your diapers and try not to step on Lebanese border fence... Anda!

Posted by: H. Schmatz | Aug 12 2020 22:58 utc | 483

-----

Nope.

Laughing at your complete idiocy. That should be obvious. I clearly stated it. I've wondered several times "is this Schmatz idiot a parody or what? Surely no one could be that stupid in real life"

But after watching you read some random russian guy and then claim he's the

    "Russian High Representative of the Russian Federation of Lebanon"

Its clear that you actually suffer from some severe cognitive issues, and probably have no idea how idiotic you sound. Worse sill, in true Dunning-Kruger fashion, you clearly think that you're one of the smarter people commenting here.

To which I can only reply "Oh dear, how unfortunate, for both you and us"

Posted by: Contra-Conspiraloon | Aug 13 2020 5:32 utc | 490

Ari | Aug 12 2020 18:33 utc | 474

How did they come up with the number of 2,750 tonnes ammonium nitrate? The cargo ship Rhosus had a gross tonnage of 1,900 tons. So how could the vessel have a cargo of 2,750 tonnes. If the source was the article in The Arrest/Ship Arrested, did they make an error with the numbers?

Here are numbers I found for the RHOSUS......

MO number 8630344
Name of the ship RHOSUS
Type of ship GENERAL CARGO
MMSI 214181621
Gross tonnage 1900 tons
DWT 3226 tons
Year of build 1986
Builder TOKUOKA SHIPBUILDING - SANMU, JAPAN
Flag MOLDOVA

Gross tonnage is a volumetric measurement of the enclosed space in a ship. It has NOTHING to do with weight. The unit used is the gross TON. Deadweight tonnage (DWT) is the WEIGHT in metric TONNES (1,000 kg) of cargo, fuel and stores that will put the ship down to its loadline marks.

Posted by: dan of steele | Aug 13 2020 10:13 utc | 491

@ Jackrabbit & Peter AU1, @Updates Lebanese posted 12/8/20 "Warehouse 12 had 2750 tons of AN about 23 tons of fireworks, 1,000 tires, barrels containing highly flammable liquid materials used in the manufacture of cleaning materials and (slow) explosive detonators .. in addition to 50 tons of ammonium phosphate.(1/2) Not only that, the ammonium phosphate is of unknown origin and there is no documentation of where it came from and to whom it belonged...(2/2)" They are quoting an article on al akhbar.com.

Posted by: boon | Aug 13 2020 12:35 utc | 492

@ Jackrabbit | Aug 12 2020 22:40 utc | 480

Quote 'Would you say that the small explosions look more like fireworks or blasting caps (the larger blasting caps that would be used with AN)? Why and why not? 'unquote

I believe there's a widespread misconception of 'pressure applied' or rather 'compression'.
Only a few numbers: Initiation pressure for cast Comp B is ~17 kbar, for phlegmatized RDX 95/5 ~12 kbar, for plegmatized PETN 93/7 ~7kbar. AN isn't nearly as sensitive to initiation by shock as the aforementioned materials are, so, AN being both less energetic and less sensitive requires substantially higher P(i). Pretty sure I've got the correct numbers floating around my library somewhere but, honestly, I'm being too lazy to dig through all the papers.

To me this looks like fireworks. AN based explosives such as ANFO etc. use a booster charge for initiation. Of course there is also cap sensitive slurries, emulsion slurries and powdered compositions available, but here we are talking pretty much plain AN. Boosters may come in different setups a. primers (booster charge with cap as pre-manufactured unit) or b. cap + a separate cap sensitive booster.
Safety concerns suggest to employ option b. as suitable primers for initating ANFO-like compositions reliably exibit hand grenade-like performance or even above that. No one wants to be close to a primer for ANFO in an emergency situation.
Any data on that No12 cap you've mentioned above? I'm not familiar with these.

Posted by: Hmpf | Aug 13 2020 12:38 utc | 493

@ Jackrabbit I think the work carried out at warehouse/entrepôt 12 was ordered in response to the most recent interference/investigation carried out by "Reformist Govt" officials. Aoun states he received a report on 20/07/20 about the contents & their condition, being powerless, all He could do would be to phone/arrange a meeting with the relevant minister, & then discuss what would happen. IMO that minister wouldn't have appreciated the meddling, but needed to do something for appearances sake. Whether the workmen were employed for welding or blacksmithing skills may have been lost in translation, but they were employed to close that open door. The fire brigade was called half an hour after the works had been completed, when smoke was seen coming from the building, around 5.30 pm.

Posted by: boon | Aug 13 2020 13:46 utc | 494

@ Jackrabbit of course the occupiers would have such plans & I'm sure the press releases are already written with that immortal legend "posed an existential threat, left with no choice but to strike first", but this time they are not directly involved.

Posted by: boon | Aug 13 2020 13:58 utc | 495

boon @Aug13 12:35 #492

Do you have a source/link for this?

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 13 2020 14:58 utc | 496

boon @Aug13 13:58 #495

occupiers ... are not directly involved.

Then who arranged to send Rhosus to Beirut and who got the matter tied up in courts so that the AN (and other hazardous material) stayed in warehouse for years?

Is it normal practice to keep dangerous materials in port warehouses for years? If so, why are we told that they HAD TO move the AN off the ship and that port officials made efforts to remove the AN for years, and when the "reformist" govt heard of the AN they didn't just shrug?

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 13 2020 15:11 utc | 497

2750 tons of AN and 23 tons of "fireworks" is a 120 to 1 ratio. Add fuel oil to the AN to make ANFO and you have 150-200 to 1.

Does that sound about right relative weight for ANFO to detonating charge (for mining)?

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 13 2020 15:18 utc | 498

Jackrabbit Aug 13 2020 14:58 utc | 496 Sorry my use of @ wasn't clear, and it reads as though @Updates Lebanese was a commenter here. I read a tweet from Lebanese News & Updates quoting this article https://al-akhbar.com/Author/200

Posted by: boon | Aug 13 2020 15:32 utc | 499

Jackrabbit | Aug 13 2020 15:11 utc | 497 I don't know who ordered what, where, when & why. What I am seeing is evidence of the complexity of Lebanon's existence. The army claim they have consistently stated they did not want the AN, but the judge they dealt with was not the judge who could order disposal. I read another ship was also detained in 2014, the Al Mostafa, & the documents showed 2750 tonnes of AN onboard. Documents regarding the Rhosus don't show quantity seized, maybe someone was asked how much was in the warehouse & they just said 2750. When might this confusion have occurred? IMO when an official at the port was asked awkward questions about the contents. You ask "Is it normal practice to keep dangerous materials in port warehouses for years?" Yes it was in this case, perfectly normal practice.

Posted by: boon | Aug 13 2020 15:58 utc | 500

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