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The U.S. Has Surrendered To The Pandemic. Protect Yourself.
Yesterday the United States registered more than 60,000 new Covid-19 cases. As the number of new cases continues to increase unabated about two weeks from now it is likely to reach hundred thousand new cases per day.
Source: 91-divoc – bigger
The increase of testing is not the cause of higher new case numbers. The rate of people among those who were tested and were found positive has also increased. In Florida, which yesterday had nearly 10,000 new cases, the positive test rate has reached nearly 20%. That means that the epidemic is still accelerating.
This did not need to happen. Yesterday Germany, at a quarter the size of the U.S., had 279 new cases. It does 1 million tests per week and the positive rate is decreasing. China has defeated a new local outbreak in Beijing by testing more than 10 million people. The last two days it reported zero new cases.
Many of those who test positive, especially the younger ones, will not fall ill with severe symptoms. But some 10-15% are estimated to need medical support. How many of them will die depends on the quality of care that can be given to them. Some thirty hospitals in Florida have already run out of space in their intensive care units. That is the point where the real emergency begins.
Six months after the disease was discovered more is known of how to care for Covid-19 cases. The death rate per cases has therefore decreased. But this only holds when there are sufficient beds, doctors and staff available. At the current U.S. rate that will soon no longer be the case.
We do know that the hospitalization curve follows the testing/symptoms curve by some 10-14 days while ICU admittance follows the above curve with some 15 to 20 days delay. The eventual recovery in an ICU bed takes up to four weeks. A bed once occupied will not be available for quite some time.
Trump's new policy is to ignore the epidemic. He hopes that the people will get used to the carnage it causes:
Trump’s advisers [..] are seeking ways to reframe his response to the coronavirus — even as the president himself largely seeks to avoid the topic because he views it as a political loser. They are sending health officials to swing states, putting doctors on TV in regional markets where the virus is surging, crafting messages on an economic recovery and writing talking points for allies to deliver to potential voters.
The goal is to convince Americans that they can live with the virus — that schools should reopen, professional sports should return, a vaccine is likely to arrive by the end of the year and the economy will continue to improve.
White House officials also hope Americans will grow numb to the escalating death toll and learn to accept tens of thousands of new cases a day, according to three people familiar with the White House’s thinking, who requested anonymity to reveal internal deliberations. Americans will “live with the virus being a threat,” in the words of one of those people, a senior administration official.
“They’re of the belief that people will get over it or if we stop highlighting it, the base will move on and the public will learn to accept 50,000 to 100,000 new cases a day,” said a former administration official in touch with the campaign.
That may, to some extent, be possible. But 100,000 new cases per day also means that there will soon be 1,000 or so new deaths per day. The hospitals will fill up and the death rate will increase. More and more people will know someone who died of Covid-19. The economy will continue to only limp along as long as people fear getting infected.
My take is that Trump's calculation is simply wrong. The epidemic will continue to get wide media coverage. The hot spots will change but without local lockdown measures each of them will lead to the overflow of local hospitals. This will increase the death rate.
It is now too late to stop the epidemic in the United States. That makes it even more important for its citizens to take personal safety measures.
All spreading events that affected multiple people took place in enclosed spaces. The virus prefers it cool and dry. Places with unfiltered air conditioning should therefore be avoided. Open a window to create airflow if possible. Stay at a distance from other persons. Wear a mask.
Masks significantly reduce the chance of catching Covid-19. Your mask also protects the people around you should you unknowingly have caught the disease. This week high quality N95 masks (FFP-2 in Europe) were again available in my local pharmacy. The price (€6.80) was ridiculous but I bought two to use them in turn. I put one on whenever I leave the house. (It is not required to wear one outside but I am simply too lazy to put it on and off whenever I enter or leave some place.)
These masks (see pic below) are quite comfortable, tight enough to not fog my glasses and there is no problem breathing through them. The masks are officially one time use only but there are safe and simple ways to steam sterilize them for reuse.
My FFP-2 masks are similar to the one below but white and without a brand name printed on them.
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Get used to wearing a mask. It is the new normal that is likely to stay with us for at least another year.
I generally agree with RSH, but tend to disagree with the idea of censoring alternative viewpoints, however, wrong headed. So to play devil’s advocate, I will post this by Neil Clark, a journalist, writing for Sputnik. I wear a face mask and it is compulsory in Turkey. I have no problem doing so. Masks can be gotten free at pharmacies.
https://sputniknews.com/columnists/202007091079836506-why-wearing-face-masks-shouldnt-be-made-compulsory-in-the-uk/
Why Wearing Face Masks Shouldn’t be Made Compulsory in the UK
“The UK government is coming under intense pressure to make the wearing of face masks mandatory in shops and other enclosed public places in England, but if that happens, it would be the wrong move.
And so it goes on. Even though deaths with COVID have dropped sharply, even though the virus has clearly petered out in Britain, even though there’s been an official acknowledgement that some 30,000 ‘positive‘ test results have been double-counted, the clamour for more ‘New Abnormal’ measures to be introduced grows by the day.
The ‘big’ thing this week is to try and make the wearing of face masks compulsory.
In Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon has announced that despite there having been no COVID deaths for several days north of the border, her government would be making the wearing of masks in shops in Scotland compulsory from the 10th July. Anyone not complying could face a fine of £60.
Sturgeon’s ‘safety first’ approach has been lauded by her supporters but is it the right one?
The onus is surely on those who want to introduce such illiberal measures to prove that they are necessary. I don’t believe the advocates of mandatory mask-wearing have done that.
In March, Dr Jenny Harries, the Deputy Chief Medical Officer, said wearing masks could actually put people more at risk.
“Tell me about the value of wearing face-masks, is there any point to that,” Dr Harries was asked by PM Boris Johnson.
She replied: “If a healthcare professional hasn’t advised you to wear a face mask, it’s usually quite a bad idea. People tend to leave them on, they contaminate the face mask and then wipe it over something, so it’s really not a good idea and doesn’t help.”
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The widespread use of masks everywhere is not supported by high-quality scientific evidence, and there are potential benefits and harms to consider‘.
WHO did not call on governments to make mask-wearing compulsory and only said governments should “encourage” the public to wear a fabric mask “if there was widespread community transmission,” which clearly there isn’t in Britain at the moment.
It’s strange then that there’s such a campaign now to make the wearing of masks mandatory, given the very low risks of catching Coronavirus (COVID-19) in July 2020 in the community at large.
If we weren’t wearing them in March when we’re told COVID was as its peak, why wear them in mid-July?
Moreover, if you take the line that we’re better safe than sorry, why were there no calls to make the wearing of masks mandatory in the winter of 2017/8 when there 50,000 excess deaths- thought to be caused by the predominant strain of flu?
The fact that there were no calls then for masks to be worn by the politicians now calling for us all to wear them is quite revealing. Because surely if you think face coverings do make a difference with reducing infections, you’d want them used every time there is a bad bug doing the rounds?
In fact, given the figures, you could argue that there was a much stronger case for wearing face masks in early 2018 than there is in the summer of 2020. Yet no one made the case for the two years ago.Clearly there‘s more to this than meets the eye. You don’t have to be Hercule Poirot to suspect there’s a hidden agenda at play.
The simple question for those who want to make face masks mandatory is: For how long?
Until we have zero COVID cases? Until a vaccine is found? Until there are no infectious diseases doing the rounds? I asked that question yesterday on Twitter and didn’t get a satisfactory answer.
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You can’t say the same about masks. Masks can make us ill. They are particularly bad news for elderly people and those with breathing difficulties. They can trigger asthma attacks and are problematic for people who are autistic, deaf and hard of hearing.
With COVID having petered out in Britain, making masks mandatory at this stage only serves to boost paranoia about a virus which any calm, objective analysis tells us has been greatly over-hyped.
Put another way, the risks of catching the virus don’t warrant the measures that are being imposed or advocated. Face-mask-wearing bolsters the narrative that COVID is a huge threat to us- on a par with the Black Death-which it isn’t.
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It always makes sense to observe basic hygiene, to regularly wash your hands and to sneeze into a hanky and away from someone. If you‘ve got a cold, or think you‘re coming down with the flu, stay away from others as much as you can, especially vulnerable people.
But mandatory face mask-wearing is a ludicrous overreaction. Let those who wish to wear them do so, but there should be no pressure applied on everyone else to follow suit.”
Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Jul 9 2020 12:22 utc | 181
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