Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 05, 2020

The MoA Week In Review - Open Thread 2020-53

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

[Sorry for postings this little during the last week. I had to take care of some repair issues I had to put off during the lockdown.]

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Other issues:

Covid-19:

This is only the second described case in which an infection was likely caused by fomites:

More than 99% of all new infections are caused by air transmissions. Washing your hands all the time is mostly unnecessary. We told you to #MaskUp. So do others:

Prozac as prophylaxis or early treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infections?

> We see the role of Fluoxetine in the early treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients of risk groups. <

The Cocid-19 economic decline is fear drive:

Not astonishing when one reads stories like this one.

Dani Oliver @DaniOliver - 20:49 UTC · Jul 3, 2020
Hey, so, I got #Covid19 in March. I’ve been sick for over 3 months w/ severe respiratory, cardiovascular & neurological symptoms. I still have a fever. I’ve been incapacitated for nearly a season of my life. It's not enough to not die. You don’t want to live thru this, either. 1/
... thread

Russiagate:

Max Abrahms @MaxAbrahms - 16:07 UTC · Jul 3, 2020
RussiaGate stories follow a predictable pattern:
1. Explosive allegation
2. Media goes nuts
3. Evidence disproves or at best weakly supports allegation which is much less damning than sold
4. Media moves on to next explosive allegation without apology

Point 5. The intended aim was reached:

Wrongly accusing Russia started way before 'Russiagate':

> For five years, the sporting world has been gripped by Russian manipulation of the anti-doping system. Now new evidence suggests the whistleblower who went into a witness protection program during the scandal may not have been entirely truthful. <

Israel:

Right conclusion but the argument made is superficial:

Libya:

Last week Turkey brought two MIM-23 Hawk air defense systems to the al-Watiyah Airbase. Last night they were bombed by either French,  UAE, Egyptian or Russian mercenary airplanes. Officially the LNA (Hafter) has taken responsibility for the bombing. Whoever did this had a message to Turkey: Stop trying to break our red lines.

Elections:

Use as open thread ...

Posted by b on July 5, 2020 at 14:32 UTC | Permalink

Comments
next page »

The Trump Administration Is Waiving the Public’s Right to Affordable Coronavirus Treatments


The federal government has failed to include intellectual property and pricing protections in at least four contracts for drugs to combat Covid-19. Legal safeguards meant to ensure that products developed with federal funds are affordable and widely available were missing from the contracts, which are worth more than $1 billion and were released along with other documents last week in response to freedom of information requests. The omissions make it more likely that potentially lifesaving treatments and vaccines may be priced out of reach, even as the spiraling financial and health crises increase the need for affordable drugs.

Standard federal contracts ensure that inventions developed with government funding are available to the public “on reasonable terms.” But the four agreements for Covid-19-related products — three of which were made by a division of the Department of Health and Human Services known as the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, or BARDA, and one of which was made with the Department of Defense — notably omitted the phrase “on reasonable terms.” The government contracts with pharmaceutical companies Janssen, Regeneron, Genentech, and Ology Bioservices also limit the government’s patent rights to the products being developed for Covid-19, even though they are using taxpayer dollars to do so...

But, given its low production cost, Gilead could profit from remdesivir even if it was priced at just $1 a day, according to an analysis by Public Citizen. Instead the drug, which was rolled out with the help of the Trump administration, will cost insurers between $3,120 for a five-day course of treatment and $5,720 for a 10-day course.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 5 2020 14:40 utc | 1

"Washing your hands all the time is mostly unnecessary."

Well, no. People who are spewing virus particles from their mouth and nose are dumping them on surfaces around them. This has been proven as areas around virus patients in hospitals has been examined and virus particles detected all around the bed area and the toilet. As it happens, you are probably correct that fomites are responsible for a minimum of infections. On most surfaces they don't last long. Some scientists estimate ten percent or less. But there is still a risk. Why take a risk one doesn't have to?

But in my case, having to use a hall bathroom and toilet, the risk is higher. In addition, when one is picking up supplies in a store, one doesn't know who has touched or coughed or sneezed on what. It's advisable to wipe down packages with hydrogen peroxide.

I only wash hands when I've been out of my room, or if I've touched the floor in my room (to pick something up perhaps), because I consider the floor contaminated by my shoes, or if I've touched packages brought in from outside my room, and of course before and after removing a mask as is recommended.

Washing hands and using hand sanitizer is the only thing one can actually control, other than wearing masks. Once one has *thoroughly* washed your hands, the odds of getting infected even if you touch your mouth and nose and eyes is pretty small.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 5 2020 14:51 utc | 2

Leading epidemiologist Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford University estimates that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected by COVID-19 around the world, far more than the 10 million documented cases.

In an interview with Greek Reporter, the Greek American scientist warns, however, that the draconian lockdowns imposed in many countries may have the opposite effect of what was intended. “Globally, the lockdown measures have increased the number of people at risk of starvation to 1.1 billion, and they are putting at risk millions of lives,” he says.

...

Dr. Ioannidis: 0.05% to 1% is a reasonable range for what the data tell us now for the infection fatality rate, with a median of about 0.25%. The death rate in a given country depends a lot on the age-structure, who are the people infected, and how they are managed. For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially, to 1% or higher for those over 85. For frail, debilitated elderly people with multiple health problems who are infected in nursing homes, it can go up to 25% during major outbreaks in these facilities.

https://usa.greekreporter.com/2020/06/27/up-to-300-million-people-may-be-infected-by-covid-19-stanford-guru-john-ioannidis-says/


Posted by: DG | Jul 5 2020 14:58 utc | 3


Editorial: Gov. Newsom’s coronavirus leadership falls woefully short
Like President Trump, California’s leader ignored health officials’ warnings as he pushed to reopen the economy


Early on, he wisely adopted Bay Area health officials’ strategy for controlling the coronavirus. It was working as the number of cases leveled off in early April. But then the governor, ignoring warnings from some of those same health officials to take it slow, reversed course and opened up the state much too fast.

The result: California is now plagued with a major spike of coronavirus cases. The numbers had been steadily increasing since late April but then started sharply rising in mid-June. Each day now, the state’s seven-day trend line reaches record-high levels.

The increase in cases is not merely due to more testing; it’s also due to a larger percentage of those tested having the virus. The portion of tests that come back positive has increased more than 50% in the past 2½ weeks. Now, about 7% of those tested are infected.

Which helps explain why California hospitalizations for COVID-19 have increased 60% since June 13 and have surpassed the statewide peaks seen in April. Once again, some hospitals are preparing to stop doing elective surgeries so they can open up more beds for virus patients.

This is the scenario health experts — most notably, Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody — warned about. While the state is better prepared than back in March, it’s still woefully short on testing and contact tracing needed to stem the spread of the virus.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 5 2020 14:59 utc | 4

Hey, so, I got #Covid19 in March. I’ve been sick for over 3 months w/ severe respiratory, cardiovascular & neurological symptoms.

It is quite right to talk about covid surviving victims being as much or more than an issue than covid-deaths.
but pretty soon you have to start talking numbers (or it becomes purely medical porn)
What proportion of people (at various ages etc) die?
What multiple of deaths are seriously injured victims?

No numbers, no context, no purpose in writing about them.
Over the past 3 months expected deaths per hundred infections has gone down from 2 or 3, then to 1, then to about a quarter and that includes the seriously old. For people under 50 the numbers are very very tiny.

UK based but very sound.

Summary
After nearly 45,000 Covid deaths in England and Wales, we can see that people of different ages have been exposed to dramatically differing risks. Fatalities among school-children have been remarkably low. Taking women aged 30–34 as an example, around 1 in 70,000 died from Covid over the 9 peak weeks of the epidemic. Since over 80% of these had pre-existing medical conditions, we estimate that a healthy women in this age-group had less than a 1 in 350,000 risk of dying from Covid, around 1/4 of the normal risk of an accidental death over this period.

Healthy children and young adults have been exposed to an extremely small risk during the peak of the epidemic, which would normally be deemed an acceptable part of life. Risks can be far higher for the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-risks-of-covid-particularly-to-children-and-younger-adults-a5cbf7060c49

The other really useful topic to cover is the proportion of populations that have been infected (asymptotic or with symptoms) and the proportion of the population that may never catch the virus at all (at the very least it seems that many children seem immune before contact).
Otherwise it would appear that you only cover the bad stories about Covid.

From my optimistic pov (and the linked article), symptotic victims have lost perhaps 1 year of life expectancy, and if every one gets it, it means the lose of perhaps 2 months of life expectancy. I would welcome a fact based explanation of why I might be wrong.

Posted by: Bob Creamer | Jul 5 2020 15:08 utc | 5


Coronavirus: California records almost 4,000 new cases as some counties pause reporting

The state has now had 249,262 cases and 6,312 COVID-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic. The cases reported Friday are down significantly from a week where California twice hit record highs, leaving it with a seven-day average of 6,402 daily cases and 65 deaths.

But those numbers don’t include several counties that did not report new data on Friday, when the Fourth of July holiday was observed. Among them is Los Angeles County, which has 43 percent of all the cases in the state and went into Friday averaging 2,314 daily cases and 30 deaths. Los Angeles County Public Health said on its website it is improving its data processing systems and will not report new data until Monday....

San Francisco reported 57 new cases, for a total of 3,776 and no new deaths, with a total of 50 COVID-19 fatalities. The county has a seven-day average of 54 daily cases. San Francisco has an overall positive testing rate of 3 percent.

That 3 percent number isn't bad - IIRC that's the number you're looking for to indicate that you're testing enough to get the virus under control. San Francisco has mostly had a very slow death rate, going up a couple, then sitting there for a week, then going up a couple more. According to the city's data reporting, hospitals aren't overwhelmed at all, and ICUs can handle the cases and still provide for non-virus patient treatment.

I've been expecting a significant uptick due to the homeless and SRO populations being lax on social distancing and mask wearing, but so far that doesn't seem to have occurred. I did notice this week that some of the "tent camps" in some of the surrounding blocks have disappeared. Perhaps the city has begun moving the homeless into some sort of shelter or clearing them out of groups.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 5 2020 15:09 utc | 6

non covid.....

thanks for the links and articles b!

why is turkey even in libya? do they have dreams of being like the usa or uk now??

Posted by: james | Jul 5 2020 15:24 utc | 7

And all the dummies here will continue to parrot their idol...Donald Trump... As we've seen here already...

'We need to live with it': White House readies new message for the nation on coronavirus


At the crux of the message, officials said, is a recognition by the White House that the virus is not going away any time soon — and will be around through the November election.

As a result, President Donald Trump's top advisers plan to argue, the country must figure out how to press forward despite it. Therapeutic drugs will be showcased as a key component for doing that and the White House will increasingly emphasize the relatively low risk most Americans have of dying from the virus, officials said.

Of course, it's not going away - Trump made sure of that with his pig-witless handling of the crisis.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 5 2020 15:28 utc | 8

WHO halts hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir hospital therapy for COVID-19

The conclusion didn't change: hydroxycloroquine is just a glorified placebo at best.

But I won't celebrate this because the USD 3,000 hydroxycloroquine has just been born: remdesivir. The USG has already bought Gilead's entire stash, the European countries are already complaining the USA hasn't left any for them to buy.

--//--

As Marine Le Pen has proved in France, the rise of the populists is finally going into reverse

This is a very complex subject, and I don't pretend to have all the answers for this phenomenon. But I think the explanation is much simpler than the author's "superior European IQ" line of argument:

1. the refugee crisis was halted because of Bashar al-Assad's victory in Syria (thanks Russia for that).

2. Greece and Italy absorbed most of the blow of the initial refugee waves either way (including by sinking or let sink of many boats loaded with refugees); plus Hungary and Turkey - the main land routes for refugees - were by almost all certainties bribed with very generous ransoms by the EU (Germany) to keep the gross mass of refugees locked in concentration camps there. This softened the blow even more for Carolingian Europe (France and Germany) and the UK (which has the additional protection of the Dover Strait). As a result, an initial timor took place in those countries, but it was short lived.

3. The Libyan situation was a little bit stabilized by the eruption of the civil war, which suddenly closed the sea route for the refugees to Italy.

4. The EU went down to another economic crisis, which was amplified by the pandemic, which made the refugee influx (which already was dwindling either way) the lesser problem for the European working classes - they simply would lose their jobs either way.

5. The further degeneration of the Trump reign in the USA, plus the absolute failure of the Boris Johnson government, "sobered up" the European working classes about the dangers of right-wing extremism. At the least, it made them realize the world is not so simple.

6. The less-than-stellar economic results achieved both by the "moderates" who were able to survive the "populist wave" and the populist who were able to amount to the wave (e.g. Austria) dealt a blow to the Liberal Democratic system/consensus, which made the typical fervor of the elections to more or less disappear among the European working classes, i.e. they realized elections don't matter that much.

Posted by: vk | Jul 5 2020 15:45 utc | 9

One "failure" after another in USA (and some other Western countries) to fight the pandemic.

Yet few talk about who benefits from these failures: Big Pharma. MSM is especially silent on this.

<> <> <> <> <>

USA failed to stop the pandemic early despite private warnings to people-that-matter(tm) the virus would almost certainly be a pandemic.

Then USA health officials said nothing as Trump told the nation that the virus was nothing to be concerned about. Then they said nothing about how people could protect themselves.

Then USA failed to switch from 'virus mitigation' (living with the virus) to 'virus suppression' (pro-active measures to fight the virus), despite the success of other countries that used 'virus suppression'.

Then USA opened up too early.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jul 5 2020 15:47 utc | 10

qjackrabbit... it is all about civil liberties... don't want to infringe on americans civil liberties.. what kind of commie are you? lol...

Posted by: james | Jul 5 2020 15:54 utc | 11

Very interesting op-ed by the RT. Recommend reading:

It’s NOT ‘rehabilitating Stalin,’ but mainstream media portrays Russia as VILLAIN to trigger alarm

Posted by: vk | Jul 5 2020 16:36 utc | 12

Posted by: vk | Jul 5 2020 15:45 utc | 9

Sneering at the EU isn't going to help you understand what you claim is a complex phenomenon. What economic crisis in the EU (before the COVID pandemic)? You sound as though you're yet another fantasy believer in the imminent collapse of the EU, predicted to be coming immediately for the last 40 years.

No, the reason the far right has come to a halt is that they have no solutions. Le Pen plumped for Frexit in 2017, found that no-one wanted it, and had to quickly change course. She hasn't got going again since.

Posted by: Laguerre | Jul 5 2020 16:52 utc | 13

James, "why is turkey even in libya?"
Because they had to get out and quick, upon order of NATO/EU, back in 2011 (+ get a tip for evacuating the other foreigners). They ve lost a lot in this:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-protests-turkey/turkish-businesses-looted-in-libya-turks-evacuated-idUSTRE71K2HJ20110221

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-02-23/turkey-mounts-biggest-evacuation-in-its-history-to-rescue-5-000-from-libya
(I remember reading much more than 25,000 workers, mainly well-paid engineers whose money back home was most welcome)
And there is that
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turks_in_Libya

Egypt lost just as much or even more, they have ca 2-3 million workers there, mainly not higher scale jobs though

Posted by: Mina | Jul 5 2020 16:55 utc | 14

@ Posted by: Laguerre | Jul 5 2020 16:52 utc | 13

Err... the Euro crisis of 2011-2012 (the destruction of Greece)?

By the way, the 2011-12 Euro crisis was a direct result of the American 2008 crisis, which still hasn't been solved (which amounted to the pandemic crisis). The whole zone is mired into an endless depression.

And then they accuse the USA of short-memory...

Posted by: vk | Jul 5 2020 17:01 utc | 15

Thanks for the link to the Egypt/Libya article, b. It's a rare insight into the often-hidden complexities behind armed conflict. Thanks too for Caitlin J's opinion of AmeriKKKa's two Right-wing Crank parties. She makes it easier to laugh about their un-funny antics.

Slightly off topic, but I think Caitlin could be onto something worthwhile with her Utopia Prepper meme (whether she invented it or not). The way things are going, Hell could freeze over before sanity emerges in Western Political circles. Prompted by her optimism, I intend to devote an hour every Sunday afternoon to Utopia Prepping and contemplate the many potential delights which a mildly more Utopian world would facilitate. There's way too much negative thinking at present and it's NOT accidental. We'll never get to Utopia if we don't plan what we'll do when we arrive...

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jul 5 2020 17:14 utc | 16

Highly recommend the Lebanese banker article. Guy makes sense to me. He seem to be a little delusional as to some external factors but he is a banker. Actually seemed pretty reasonable and forthcoming. He certainly doesn't seem worried about Lebanon's future.

Libya may see peace if Erdogan can be appeased. He's been pretty aggressive and shown a willingness to bite not bark. Getting involved in Libya seems to just be a part of his plans. He's impatient and not seeming to give a shit like a man who only has a year to live.

Posted by: PleaseBeleafMe | Jul 5 2020 17:22 utc | 17

>No numbers, no context, no purpose in writing about them.

Here is a number: 17 million, the estimated (a guess) world-wide number of myalgic encephalomyelitis patients. (ME is the original name for what is often now called "chronic fatigue syndrome".) "Never Really Recovered" is a club no one wants to join, and all members want to resign from.

Most ME sufferers die with the illness, frequently by their own hand. Over three-quarters are never even diagnosed due to persistent professional ignorance and dismissive attitudes by the medical industry and their government minders. (I'm looking at you, all the useless physicians I have been forced to deal with over the past 17 years.)

The cardinal symptom is known as "post exertional malaise", PEM. Physical, cognitive, and/or emotional exertion beyond the patient's "energy envelope" results in symptom exacerbation which may last hours, days, weeks, or even longer. PEM is usually delayed 24 - 48 hours. Imagine waking up every morning with the world's worst hangover, for the rest of one's life. While being told that one is exaggerating symptoms, seeking attention, and is simply "work-shy".

I am feeling very sad for all the "COVID Long-haulers" who will be told that their ever-changing never-ending symptoms are simply due to "de-conditioning", "fear of exercise", "depression", "PTSD", and "malingering". They will be ostracized. They will be abandoned by family, friends, the medical industry, and society at large. They will be denied social benefits and any kind of support. (I fought Social Security Administration for six years before I was awarded benefits.)

In the UK, Covid Long-haulers will be offered, and even coerced into the official "treatment" of "graded exercise therapy" (GET) and "cognitive behavioral therapy" (CBT). They will be told the Cochrane review of exercise therapy "proves" that GET works, even though Cochrane admits the review is garbage and has not been retracted due to political pressure.

People who may be developing ME will not be told to rest, DO NOT EXCEED one's activity limits. They will not be told that patient surveys conducted over decades consistently show that GET makes patients worse, sometimes to the point of being BED BOUND and needing a feeding tube.

The above probably sounds like the mad ravings of a tin-foil-hat-wearer. How can it possibly be official policy to openly discriminate and disparage an entire patient population? Here is the short answer: Follow the Money.

Here is a slightly longer answer: It is *very* expensive for private disability (aka income protection) insurers to pay out benefits to sick employees *for decades*. Their solution was to treat ME (classified as a neurological illness by WHO 50 years ago) as a "mental illness" subject to draconian benefits limits. Fortunately for insurers, Regius Professor Sir Simon Wessely and associates came to the rescue and delivered the fraudulent and discredited PACE trial which "proves" that GET and magic CBT can fix anything, even ME, and now, COVID Longhaulers.

Dear Longhaulers, when the psychobabblers tell you "no pain no gain", run, walk, or crawl away as fast as you can. Exercise may be great for cardiac troubles, but for ME patients, telling us to do exercise is like telling a diabetic to slowly increase their sugar intake every day, until they eliminate their "fear of sugar".

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Jul 5 2020 17:29 utc | 18

Trailer Trash @Jul5 17:29 @18

... myalgic encephalomyelitis patients. (ME is the original name for what is often now called "chronic fatigue syndrome".) ... Follow the Money.

Half of those who recovered form SARS suffered from chronic fatigue syndrome that lasted long after their illness.

But media - and USA health officials - have been silent about long-term effects of SARS-COV-2 - which also includes severe lung damage for many of those who developed Covid-19. Instead, there is a whisper campaign against government encroachment on our "liberties".

See my comment @Jul5 15:47 #10 for more.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jul 5 2020 17:39 utc | 19

As a long-ago disaffected Democrat I remain more critical of them than the Republicans. The Democrat Party poses as the gender equivalent of a closeted gay while the Republicans are "out". Both parties appear to be more shrill in their rhetoric but the dems are still mostly in the closet. Biden, James Carville, Rahm Emmanuel will continue to reveal too much but most of the media and pundits will redirect and spin and close the door.
The hinges are falling off, though.

Posted by: migueljose | Jul 5 2020 17:57 utc | 20


Everybody or most progressive MoA, including me JC loves Jimmy Dore. Here are two prospective views on China or HK. Is China evils or the good guy? You be the judges.... remember that's how Ukraine Maiden started - not forgetting how Syrians war started back in 2011. Enjoy two excellent Jimmy Dore videos :-)

U.S. vs. CHINA -- A New Cold War? Dylan Ratigan's Perspective!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zq9J9OfcAz4

U.S. Tensions Against CHINA Increase! Journalist Danny Haiphong's Perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UtsRr71arE

Posted by: JC | Jul 5 2020 17:59 utc | 21

Posted by: vk | Jul 5 2020 17:01 utc | 15

Err... the Euro crisis of 2011-2012 (the destruction of Greece)?
Yes I thought you'd have something silly to say. Greece was a purely an internal Greek crisis, brought on by poor government management (not by Syriza, but by their predecessors). It's largely over by now. Greece didn't leave the Euro nor the EU. They knew on which side their bread was buttered. A haircut was had, and it took time to get over. It was not a Euro crisis, nor really a Europe-wide crisis.

Posted by: Laguerre | Jul 5 2020 18:01 utc | 22

@ 14 mina... thanks.. i was under the impression it was erodogan with illusions of grandeur... it is probably a good chunk of that too...

Posted by: james | Jul 5 2020 18:03 utc | 23

>But media - and USA health officials - have been silent about
>long-term effects of SARS-COV-2

I find it a very cruel irony that Fauci of all people is in charge of the virus non-response. He was a boat-anchor at NIH during the initial response to the AIDS crisis. He has been instrumental in wrecking the NIH research program for ME. For example, he kicked the ME research program out of his institute in Oct 1999:

"Dr. Anthony Fauci, NIAID Director, met with the Dr. Harold Varmus, Director of NIH, and concluded that CFS was more complex and activities should be relocated from a single NIH institute." (CFSAC minutes Sept 2003)

The NIH research program has been in limbo ever since, subject to an unworkable multi-institute something-or-other designed to make sure no one has authority or responsibility to actually do something.

Fauci will soon be working overtime together with the UK psychobabblers to discredit the personal reports of the COVID Longhaulers. They will be diagnosed with "stress" and given a course of "computerized" CBT, which will tell them to ignore symptoms and carry on, until they collapse.

When patients don't come back, doctors always assume they got better. Honest to god, doctors have said that to me. It does not occur to them that patients get too sick to go to the clinic, or they got tired of being fobbed off.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Jul 5 2020 18:03 utc | 24

Bob Creamer 5

Last time I checked, Australia and Russia had 1 death per 63 cases whereas US had 1 death per eighteen confirmed cases. 1 Death per 18 is something over 5 per hundred.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2020 18:11 utc | 25

I've watched Jimmy Dore for the last 3 years more or less. But he is an intellectual imbecile who doesn't read (his words). Bringing Dylan Ratigan - a financial wizard - on to talk about geopolitics is laughable.
So according to Ratigan millions have spontaneously protested (which is wrong) to fight China which wants to take away the civil liberties of the poor Hong Konger (which is even more wrong).

Save your time and do not watch this nonesense!

Posted by: vato | Jul 5 2020 18:16 utc | 26

The secret code for commenting here is still eluding me, post-ability is extremely erratic and sparse.

A story about an attack on Iran seems to be gelling:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/05/satellite-image-raises-suspicions-of-attack-at-iran-nuclear-site

COVID = the US is a pariah state, a petri dish the rest of the world is grimly observing. Ugly Americans are being turned away:

https://www.thelocal.it/20200703/treated-like-criminals-italian-police-turn-away-american-tourists-arriving-by-private-jet

Incidentally significant hotspot locations in the US are not reporting COVID data this July 4th weekend, disrupting a patriotic holiday with bad news is bad form:

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/coronavirus/locations.htm

COVID Longhaulers, I see those comments TT and JR and concur. This aspect of the COVID crisis will be brushed aside and covered up just as with previous diseases. Certainly more data is needed but I'm seeing mostly only anecdotal stories being published. Good luck to the patients afflicted by the COVID Longhaul nightmare, this is going to be a major and silent disaster.

Other items.

Positivity rates:

Austin health officials last week saw the highest rate of positive coronavirus tests of any metro area in the nation, Austin Mayor Steve Adler said in a statement Saturday.

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200627/adler-austin-has-nationrsquos-highest-7-day-metro-positivity-rate-of-coronavirus-tests

Excessive deaths analysis:

Findings In this cohort study, the number of deaths due to any cause increased by approximately 122 000 from March 1 to May 30, 2020, which is 28% higher than the reported number of COVID-19 deaths.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

When the lagging indicator COVID death toll in the US catches up to the skyrocketing new cases, watch out.

Posted by: snow_watcher | Jul 5 2020 18:37 utc | 27

Had the sewer line in the basement rodded Friday. The guys on the rodding crew are the young and strong but they are real union plumbers. Watched them work. Mist and spray rising out of the clean-out as they work. Spray off the spinning snake. They were working hard and sweating, breathing deep with faces only a foot or two from the mouth of the clean-out. The sewer line here handles two families. This was early evening and for the plumbers it was rod job number ten of the day. Need I add that the mist and spray are full of feces and that covid is known to live in feces?

Asked them about the covid. Neither of them had been sick but a lot of guys in their shop had been. Older plumbers had been very sick. Starting around Christmas and through January. By mid-January every plumber in Chicago knew something was up. These guys are sanitation workers and health workers and they know stuff. But no one asks them. Everyone who got sick recovered fully and recovered before anyone knew what it was.

If these guys were squeamish or if bureaucrats got involved in how they do their work they would wear moon suits. The basement would need to be a clean room before they started and thoroughly disinfected after they were done. The cost would not be $300, it would be $3000 or more. And there would not be nearly enough qualified workers available to get the job done. Schedule having the sewer rodded maybe months from when you call it in. If these guys were not willing to do the job we would be swimming in feces. Thank your plumber. Be glad he doesn’t much read the news.

Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 5 2020 18:51 utc | 28

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2020 18:11 utc | 25

Peter many thanks for sound advices on your last open threads. I was tired and need rest. No, I'm not in Australia but in the USA. My brother like some Chinese still support the KMT and Trump. We spoke yesterday and in spite of our differences we have brotherly loves. I asked him... do you wants another China civil war? The last one was bloody, it droves’ millions out of China to various part of the world. All our relatives were killed by either sides and the Japanese occupying forces in Manchuria, Shanghai and especially Nanjing Massacre or the Rape of Nanjing. He stopped for a second....., maybe realized the consequences if Trump sinister moves to start another civil war.

The next war, if it happens in China would be the mother of all civil wars. Be it Republican or Democratic president this is the only way to stop China progress and poverty reduction.

Last open thread:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/07/open-thread-2020-52/comments/page/3/#comments

Posted by: JC | Jul 5 2020 19:08 utc | 29

Posted by: vato | Jul 5 2020 18:16 utc | 26

"But he is an intellectual imbecile".

Partially true, he's wrong on China and HK..

You watched the first video Dylan Ratigan, how about the 2nd video Danny Haiphong. Danny is more leftist than me. Watch Danny Haiphong video and make your comments. BTW Danny Haiphong ran during the last Ca primary I think ..

Posted by: JC | Jul 5 2020 19:20 utc | 30

@ Posted by: Laguerre | Jul 5 2020 18:01 utc | 22

Wait, what?

On a positive note, at least now I know from where the American inherited the arrogance and the delusions of grandeur.

Posted by: vk | Jul 5 2020 19:30 utc | 31

I’m not sure if enyone has put this up as a link. but it adds another piece of the jig-saw regarding Israel being up to some major major power moves right now.
Corona virus,
The murder of George Floyd, and subsequent unrest,
The present digging up and reburyal of the Epstein /Maxwell case,
Along with general recent events regarding Middle-East, Iran,
Venezuelan gold stolen,
Fourth coming US election,
All part of a major move by Israel pulling blackmail strings,
And then there’s this.
https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/top-news/meet-israeli-intelligence-linked-firm-using-ai-profile-americans-guide-us-lockdown-policy/
Acording to a bloke I met down the pub !

Posted by: Mark2 | Jul 5 2020 19:35 utc | 32

Hi b,

What is your take on the rash of "accidents" that Iran has been suffering from, these past couple of weeks?

Posted by: Deimetri | Jul 5 2020 19:53 utc | 33

Jesus save us. Uncle Sam Land is a f'ing powder keg and Dear Leaders color-revolution spooks are looking for the matches...

Scores of armed black protesters marched through Stone Mountain Park in Georgia, calling for the removal of an infamous Confederate monument and warning “redneck” militias that “we’re in your house.”


Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, armed rednecks are looking to shoot flag burners...

Rumours that anti-fascist protesters planned to burn American flags on the Gettysburg Civil War battleground site led to armed far-right groups turning up in numbers on US Independence Day.

These are exactly the sort of events one expects to see during a US-sponsored color revolution. Yes that could be just a co-incidence. But what if it isn't?

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Jul 5 2020 19:59 utc | 34

Essential reading:

Sweatshops and monopsony power – a review

This is the true reason the working classes of the First World countries are becoming more reactionary and descending to fascism instead of the opposite (i.e. a socialist, revolutionary progress): The working classes of the Third World countries are saying enough is enough, unionizing, uniting and forcing the capitalists of the First World countries to the table of negotiations. As they cede to the advancing Third World countries' working classes, the cost of all that go to the consumer - mostly, the First World countries' working classes. The First World working classes are not liking this one bit, and are electing leaders with more and more virulent, imperialistic tendencies in order to, in a last, desperate attempt, put the Third World countries' working classes "back to their places" (i.e. back to their condition of slavery of the social-democrat era of 1945-1975).

Posted by: vk | Jul 5 2020 20:03 utc | 35

JC 29

I cant see another civil war happening in China. The leadership is not locked into a narrow ideology. It can change and adjust as required. A lot of people there being lifted out of poverty. When people can see their circumstances constantly improving, no matter where they are on the wealth scale, they are generally optimistic about the future and that is what I found in China.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2020 20:06 utc | 36

@ Peter AU1 25

Last time I checked, Australia and Russia had 1 death per 63 cases whereas US had 1 death per eighteen confirmed cases. 1 Death per 18 is something over 5 per hundred.

The numbers changed a lot when they started testing properly.

In UK until a few weeks ago, even NHS workers couldn't get tested. The advice on the NHS phoneline for anyone who thought they were infected was to stay at home and on no account visit doctor or Hospial.
For each reported death there are probably 1-1.5 actual deaths (assuming excess deaths are from Covid).
For each diagnosed Covid, there are 10-25 non-diagnosed.
We know this, as almost all countries report R<1 so numbers should be falling, and deaths are falling while actual positive test numbers go up rapidly.

CDC guidance was sent out a month ago implying a rate of 0.26% (almost 1 in 400).
MofA has not commented on the topic. Nor has the mainstream media.

Posted by: Michael Droy | Jul 5 2020 20:08 utc | 37

@ oldhippie 28

Had the sewer line in the basement rodded Friday. The guys on the rodding crew are the young and strong but they are real union plumbers. Watched them work. Mist and spray rising out of the clean-out as they work. Spray off the spinning snake. They were working hard and sweating, breathing deep

Was quite concerned about where that was going for a while

Posted by: Michael Droy | Jul 5 2020 20:10 utc | 38

@ Posted by: Laguerre | Jul 5 2020 18:01 utc | 22

Wait, what?

On a positive note, at least now I know from where the American inherited the arrogance and the delusions of grandeur.

Posted by: vk | Jul 5 2020 19:30 utc | 31


Touche, vk!

Posted by: tucenz | Jul 5 2020 20:12 utc | 39

@37 mike

lol! good catch. i myself started sweating and didn't know why.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Jul 5 2020 20:14 utc | 40

Airborne ballpark math: we breathe about 500 l/h when sitting down and up to 10 times that when exercising. When someone is ill and pushing 500 l/h of breath into a room with a halftime of say 4 hours then after about that time this person maintains roughly 2 cubic meters of breath in that room. For a room of 100 cubic meter that would be 2% of the air. So during a workday you'd be breathing the breath of that other person at a dilution of the order of 1%. Air conditioning recycles the air (maybe not completely I don't know the ratio) so it is not ventilation where the air is replaced. Maybe airco can pick off a large part of the particles. But that is the idea, assuming various losses and a large room you would still breathing someone elses breath diluted by a factor thousand.
I haven't found data on it but I suspect half time in cool air is considerately longer.
What talking and shouting then does is increase the amount of virus material in the air but there will be a huge increase at short distance and an unknown increase at large distance.
With this reasoning the question is not whether the virus can travel through air but how easy it is. Long halflife in air increases the chance.
High threshold of number of virus particles to have an effective transmission would decrease the chance. So I would start by measuring the amount of material we can push into the air in small droplets. How much variation is there.

So meat processing: cold air and to save energy ventilation is not good. Air is recycled a lot. People doing physical labour a whole day, not sitting. Sounds tricky independently of the hygiene question of dealing with industrially forcegrown animals

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Jul 5 2020 20:23 utc | 41

Tuyzentfloot | Jul 5 2020 20:23 utc | 40

You may need to put some gallons, pounds and feet in that post for the benefit "exceptional" nation readers.

Posted by: tucenz | Jul 5 2020 20:29 utc | 42

Michael Droy 36

Nothings changed. I guess it did not enter your brain that I had checked Australian, US, and Russian numbers. All have a high rate of testing per confirmed case and per million of population. Survival of at risk patients with Covid19 is highly dependent on the level of medical care they receive and this where the numbers differ.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2020 20:29 utc | 43

Tuyzentfloot 40

Jack Ma put out a covic19 handbook that covered best practices known at that point in time about treating the disease. That was back when it had been brought under control in China and there had been no, or only several new cases for a few weeks. China set up infectious disease hospitals specifically for treating covid19. Testing in any room that had a covid19 patient showed the whole area to be contaminated, but even out through doorways, it would be carried out on shoes or under the soles and would contaminate other areas. All rooms had negative pressure so if a door was opened, air would be drawn in. I think fans drew air out through the roof in the patients wards and rooms and I take it this air would have been treated before re-entering the atmosphere.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2020 20:42 utc | 44

Hydroxychloroquine.

That's all.

Posted by: Skeletor | Jul 5 2020 20:48 utc | 45

>You may need to put some gallons, pounds and feet in that
>post for the benefit "exceptional" nation readers.

I vaguely recall the anti-metric crusades in the 1960s and 70s. It is a real pain in the ass that Uncle Sam rejected metric, sort of. The reality is that anything sold in US after about 1980 can be SAE, metric, or for the worst of both worlds, both systems mixed together.

Mechanics must have two sets of tools at hand at all times, an exceptional expense. GM is really bad about mixing and matching fasteners, depending on where a particular component was manufactured. I used to have an Isuzu pickup truck. Isuzu is owned by GM, but my truck was assembled in Indiana, with all metric fasteners, except for the rear axle. It was the same US/Canada-made axle used in small "Chevy"-labeled pickups of the time, with SAE fasteners.

I haven't heard anyone mention conversion to metric for many years. I guess we will have to wait for the end of US to get the end of SAE fasteners and "Standard" measurements.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Jul 5 2020 20:52 utc | 46

I tell people: "Russia dopes their Olympians. America rapes them." The attack on Russian athletes is just another instance of the American and Western petty hatred of Russia. When the athletes got independent tests certifying they are clean, they were still not allowed to participate in many international events. As Russian hackers revealed some of the biggest names in sports are legally allowed meds because of existing conditions. Sure.Right. Who knew that the Norwegian team and country have the highest rates of asthma around and required performance enhancing drugs. Russia was a way to distract away from other country's doping.

Posted by: Erelis | Jul 5 2020 20:59 utc | 47

Official stats dead per 1 million inhabitants on 3rd July (is this ratio relevant or not?)
1. Belgique 855,4
2. Royaume-Uni 666
3. Espagne 607,5
4. Italie 576,8
5. Suède 532,3
6. France 446,3
7. Etats-Unis 396,4
8. Irlande 358,7
9. Pays-Bas 355,9
10. Chili 330,6
11. Pérou 325,5
12. Brésil 306,8
13. Equateur 279,1
14. Mexique 240,6
15. Canada 235,6
16. Suisse 230,7
17. Luxembourg 181
18. Panama 172,4
19. Moldavie 163,6
20. Arménie 161,6
21. Macédoine du Nord 160,3
22. Portugal 156,1
23. Iran 139,5
24. Bolivie 121,4
25. Allemagne 108,8
26. Danemark 104,5
27. Roumanie 88,9
28. Koweït 88,2
29. Colombie 80,6
30. Autriche 79,7
31. République dominicaine 74
32. Russie 69,3
33. Honduras 65,6
34. Turquie 63,2
35. Irak 61,6
36. Bahreïn 61,2
37. Hongrie 60,3
38. Finlande 59,6
39. Bosnie-Herzégovine 57,5
40. Djibouti 57,4
41. Arabie Saoudite 55,1
42. Slovénie 53,7
43. Guatemala 53,3
44. Afrique du Sud 52,4
45. Estonie 52,2
46. Norvège 47,2
47. Qatar 44,2
48. Biélorussie 44,1
49. Serbie 43,8
50. Oman 42

I am afraid some ppl here will only discuss the 666 of the UK...

Posted by: Mina | Jul 5 2020 21:22 utc | 48

@47 Your fears are justified. Clearly Aleister Crowley has been manipulating the numbers from the grave.

Posted by: dh | Jul 5 2020 21:27 utc | 49

This is 2 weeks old but I haven't seen it mentioned
https://consortiumnews.com/2020/06/24/assange-extradition-assange-hit-with-new-superseding-indictment-broadening-computer-intrusion-charges/

Posted by: Mina | Jul 5 2020 21:33 utc | 50

Posted by: vk | Jul 5 2020 20:03 utc | 34


Western working classes are not becoming more reactionary, on the contrary, the Dem Party looks set to wipe out the Republican Party and to wipe out Trumpism and the green/left wing parties gained ground in the recent french municipal elections, with Macron losing big time.

In Spain, the right wing parties lost. In Italy, Salvini was kicked out from government. In Austria, FPO was kicked out from government. In Finland, Sweden and Denmark, the right lost. In Germany, the greens have been increasingly popular, but AfD stayed at mere 13 %. In Canada, Trudeau won again. In NZ, Jacinda Ardern has been a popular politician. In Ireland, left wing parties increased their power.

Theory is one thing, but practice - another. Your expectations are not confirmed by the practice.

According to this article, the rise of right wing populists in the West has been significantly overrated.

"As Marine Le Pen has proved in France, the rise of the populists is finally going into reverse"

https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/voices/marine-le-pen-right-wing-populists-european-union-trump-boris-johnson-a9601271.html

So i think that there is a problem with your theory and western working classes are currently not moving towards right wing populist parties/leaders of the type of Trump or AfD or Le Pen.

Posted by: Passer by | Jul 5 2020 21:39 utc | 51

Mina 47

When it comes to deaths per million of population, I doubt the coronavirus, even if simply allowed to run its course, will infect everyone. Many will have a natural immunity to it. Going by the cruise ships, perhaps 25% of the population may contract it. New York, New Jersey are now up around the 1600 to 1700 deaths per million and it still has not run its course in those states.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2020 22:12 utc | 52

Passer by #50

Exactly. Thank you.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jul 5 2020 22:34 utc | 53

@45 re: metric/american

yep. its built into the tooling, standards, shop procedures, people who actively fight one or the other. Was a mechanical engineer when I started working, everything was mixed, worst of both worlds not just for play count but a routine source of mistakes as stuff would get translated back and forth repeatedly. The solution we came up with was use American tooling and material sizes, and metric fasteners. This actually worked well but it would get sabotaged from both sides.

Posted by: ptb | Jul 5 2020 22:47 utc | 54

*part count ... typo

Posted by: ptb | Jul 5 2020 22:47 utc | 55

"Completely Out of Control": "'US Epidemic' Threat to Rest of the World," which IMO isn't hyperbole whatsoever. The headline is based on this Global Times article. Within the first linked article is this graph (click on photo to enlarge) that tells the tale, as well as one for just the state of Florida. Thanks to a new state-wide ordinance put in place by our Governor, I finally went shopping and saw everyone wearing a mask for the first time, but I also saw license plates on vehicles from all over the nation. But most appalling is a citation I read in the first article:

"'Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s top trade adviser Peter Navarro pushed several COVID-19 conspiracy theories on MSNBC Friday. Navarro said China deliberately allowed hundreds of thousands of people infected with coronavirus to leave the country 'to seed and spread the virus' abroad.

"At one point in the interview, MSNBC’s Ali Velshi had to ask, 'What are you talking about?'

"'They spawned the virus, they hid virus, they sent hundreds of thousands of Chinese nationalists over here to seed and spread the virus before we knew,' Navarro said. He claimed the virus 'probably' came from a Chinese lab and argued, “this looks like a weaponized virus” and that the 'Chinese communist party' is responsible for forcing Americans to “stay locked in our homes and lose our jobs.'"

The level of mendacity being employed has reached a new high, IMO. The language being used is the sort that precedes the Bombers.

It's no longer a matter of opinion--China's 100% correct and the Outlaw US Empire is 100% wrong and heading down an insane path.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jul 5 2020 22:59 utc | 56

@ Posted by: Deimetri | Jul 5 2020 19:53 utc | 32

Wanted to ask the same question, i am sure B will have something as soon as some facts are there to be dissected, seems for now that all we have to go by is the assumption it is either US or Israel dirty work, one that is hard to disagree with.

Iran will have to respond, 4 attacks in less than 2 weeks is really taking the piss and makes them look weak. Quite a reversal from the Iran that was seizing tankers, acting on its threats and dictating the tempo of escalation. Israel and US are only deterred by credible threats and the longer Iran waits, the more emboldened they will feel.

Perhaps Iran is more focused on investigations and searching through its own ranks for collaborators or traitors first, meaning it is still not sure who to hit back at. Is it the US or Israel, who is directly responsible for these attacks? What would be an appropriate response? Anything too overt could be counterproductive as there is no proof tying the explosions to anyone, much less anything concrete that Western media would publish that could justify Iran's actions.

Hezbollah has plenty of problems of its own as explained in B's Lebanon article... so not likely we'll see rocket showers on Israel any time soon on Iran's behalf. Seems those new tankers on the way to Venezuela could be targeted soon too... perhaps they are waiting for that as their pretext for escalation or retaliation?

Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 5 2020 23:07 utc | 57

karlof1 | Jul 5 2020 22:59 utc | 55
...and the Outlaw US Empire is 100% wrong and heading down an insane path.

I've been saying that for decades; nobody listens, nobody cares, and almost nobody does anything at all to change...going down by the bow...

Posted by: V | Jul 5 2020 23:33 utc | 58

@Skeletor, Jul 5 20:48

+ zinc

Posted by: cirsium | Jul 5 2020 23:34 utc | 59

Mina @ 47:

That list is indeed relevant.

Belgium has had a hard lockdown since 18 March 2020. Yet at 855 dead per million inhabitants, it's doing worse than non-lockdown Sweden at 523 dead per million inhabitants.

Admittedly though, Belgium is counting cases of dead in aged care homes and other non-hospital settings where COVID-19 is suspected as being the cause of death. So it is possible that the number of deaths is higher than it actually is and if Belgium had a reporting system similar to what other countries in Europe and North America are using, the reported death toll would be much lower.

The significant thing is that by concentrating on Sweden's decision not to use lockdown to deal with COVID-19, we have missed the real reason for the high COVID-19 mortality rate in that country: it was Sweden's failure to protect its elderly in aged care homes and its refugee and immigrant population, and the broad social context in Sweden in which that failure took place. Sweden's aged care homes are run on a privatised, for-profit business model, with homes run like factories housing as many as several hundred patients and employing as carers people drawn from refugee and immigrant communities on contracts. Many of those carers work shifts at more than one aged care facility, thus spreading the infection even though they themselves are asymptomatic. The result is that about 90% of COVID-19 deaths in Sweden have been among the elderly and half of those people were living in aged care.

Posted by: Jen | Jul 5 2020 23:42 utc | 60

James @ 7:

Erm, I think this old MoA article might help answer your question.

Plus Turkey needs somewhere to put all those jihadis still stuck in Idlib province in NW Syria that it was supposed to have taken care of and to have sent back to China.

Posted by: Jen | Jul 5 2020 23:49 utc | 61

Posted by: Mina | Jul 5 2020 21:22 utc | 47

IMO number of dead per million of inhabitants is closest to truth indicator of how country handled epidemic, of all statistic data there is. But with one important caveat, and that is country size, along with population distribution (large, dense cities vs vast rural spaces).

One infected can spread disease during afternoon walk in tiny country like Vatican, few people can do that in a day or two in small countries like Belgium. But for vast countries it takes a lot of time to spread.

Posted by: Abe | Jul 5 2020 23:51 utc | 62

@57 I wouldn't say nobody cares. Here at MOA we just feel powerless to stop the inevitable collapse. We fully expect a period of total confusion....some might even say anarchy....to be followed by The Great Cull. This in turn will be followed by a new Golden Age when everybody is equal and there is no injustice. We remain optimistic. It's just a question of time.

Posted by: dh | Jul 5 2020 23:54 utc | 63

Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 5 2020 23:07 utc | 56 Iran will have to respond

I expect Iran to measure its response tit-for-tat. If these explosions are the result of computer intrusion, Iran will respond in cyberspace. If they are not - and I find it hard to believe they are, disrupting a centrifuge is one thing (and too clever by half), causing an explosion is another - then Iran or a proxy will have to respond in kind. As the article cited below states:


He said Israel was “bracing” for an Iranian response, likely via a cyberattack. In an April cyberattack attributed by western intelligence officials to Iran, an attempt was made to increase chlorine levels in water flowing to residential Israeli areas.

Probably BS by Israel and the US, but this sort of thing goes on all the time. Note that there was no explosions involved.

The problem is that covert operations require some planning, especially if hacking is involved. So Iran's response might be days, weeks or months delayed. Of course, it can respond more directly by using Iraqi Shia militias against US forces in Iraq, or allies like Hezbollah elsewhere. But that is a trap the US neocons have laid - anything Iran does can be used to justify further attacks. Even if Iran proves that these explosions were not accidents, they will not be believed. So anything Iran does which is not equally covert will be used to justify further aggression.

There really is no winning this game by Iran. Only if the US and Israel stops covert attacks - and that isn't going to happen.

Meanwhile, allegedly the EU has claimed Iran has now triggered the JCPOA dispute mechanism.

EU says Iran has triggered nuclear deal dispute mechanism

I don't know if this is true, but if so, it represents the final collapse of the JCPOA. The dispute mechanism has a specific time mechanism to which all parties must adhere. So within a short period of time, Iran will either be granted its sanctions relief as promised or the deal will end. The deal's snapback mechanism won't be applied, because Russia and China will veto that no matter the US does. The US has no standing, but will try anyway just for the propaganda value.

Once the JCPOA is finally declared dead, the US and Israel will escalate their aggression against Iran, because no one in the ignorant electorate in those countries will be told that the deal was ruined by Trump and the EU's spinelessness.

Without the JCPOA, the US can revert to the sort of warmongering it engaged in before the Iraq war - constantly escalating accusations that can never be proven false and an unending stream of propaganda justifying a war.

The *only* thing preventing an Iran war is Hezbollah's ability to derail the Israeli economy. The US and Israel have no choice but to find a solution to that problem. Whether they will succeed in that, and at what cost to Lebanon, is the question.

Historically, I don't think there has ever been this level of enmity between countries without a war resulting (other than between nuclear armed nations due to MAD.) It may take some years more to get the Iran war started, but it is inevitable.

And that recognition, contrary to Bagoom's claims, is *not* advocacy. An Iran war is going to be very bad for *everyone* except Israel, the neocons and the military-industrial complex.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jul 6 2020 0:14 utc | 64

dh | Jul 5 2020 23:54 utc | 62
We fully expect a period of total confusion....some might even say anarchy....to be followed by The Great Cull. This in turn will be followed by a new Golden Age when everybody is equal and there is no injustice. We remain optimistic. It's just a question of time.

Given todays insanity, on the ground, across the U.S.; I would suggest yours smacks of magical thinking...
All optimism escapes me at this time...
Equality for all is an historical myth, IMO...

Posted by: V | Jul 6 2020 0:22 utc | 65

@64 Well I was hoping it might smack of cynicism but you may be new here.

On another subject, if I may, I see the statue of Juan de Onate in Santa Fe NM is scheduled for demolition. Fine with me. The conquistadores were hard, brutal men but I'm curious as to why he ever deserved a statue in the first place. Anyone?

Posted by: dh | Jul 6 2020 0:34 utc | 66

@ 60 jen... thanks.. yes, i recall the article and the discussions... to me, i go back to my central thesis - erdogan wants to give off airs of empire to his supporters.. nothing else seems to add up, although ditching a bunch of headchopper cultists in libya is a better idea then them returning to turkey...

regarding your post @59... belgium has the highest rate of death per country in the world.. i am mystified by that, other then brussels in euro headquarters as i understand it... could this feed into it? mind you, if you do what peter au does and look at individual states in the usa - some of the eastern states have a much higher rate of death over 1000 per mil with new jersey where our former poster 'rob'? posted from is at 1720 per mil... it also seems sweden is no longer providing data to worldometers.org anyway...

Posted by: james | Jul 6 2020 0:36 utc | 67

@65 dh.. historical relevance to new mexico by the look of it.... time to get rid of who the early explorers were as they ain't kosher, lol...

Posted by: james | Jul 6 2020 0:40 utc | 68

@65 dh - "In 1997, the city of El Paso commissioned sculptor John Sherrill Houser to design a statue for the conquistador. In response to the protests, two city councils withdrew their support for the project. The production of the $ 2 million statue took almost nine years and was placed in the sculptor's magazine in Mexico City. It was completed in spring 2006. In parts it was transported to El Paso on flatbed trucks in summer and set up in October. The controversy about the statue before it was raised was the subject of the documentary The Last Conquistador, which was featured in 2008 as part of the public broadcasting service's point-of-view television documentary series. [18]
The city of El Paso unveiled the 18-ton statue at a ceremony on April 21, 2007. Oñate rides his Andalusian horse, in his right hand the La Toma Declaration, in which the entire territory north of the Río Grande is declared a colony of Spain. This statue was welcomed by sections of the local population and the Spanish ambassador to the United States Carlos Westendorp. According to the sculptor Houser, this is the largest and heaviest (bronze) equestrian statue in the world. Members of the Acoma tribe from New Mexico were present and protested the statue."

Posted by: james | Jul 6 2020 0:45 utc | 69

The destruction of every statue and monument is the loss of a possible teaching moment; U.S. history is already a travesty of myth and fantasy; the insanity and its attendant guilt, is killing the U.S. as a viable society, IMO...

Posted by: V | Jul 6 2020 0:48 utc | 70

"I cant see another civil war happening in China. The leadership is not locked into a narrow ideology. It can change and adjust as required."
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 5 2020 20:06 utc | 35

...

Reminds me of a quote I recently heard-

"In China, you cannot change the party, but you can change the policies.
In America, you can change the parties but never the policies"

To be fair the only policy changes I've seen from either party in the US have been consistently worse...and generally in lock step with each other. Both "parties" should be crashed and bashed.

-Or as Americans are fond of quoting "Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius" the origin of the modern phrase, "Kill them all and let God sort them out." Another civil war in the states would be doing the world a great justice. Let the Americans lovingly slaughter each other rather than the rest of the world. Even the bible thumpers love to do "gods work"

Posted by: CitizenX | Jul 6 2020 1:03 utc | 71

@68 Thanks james. I should read up on the history of New Mexico. I guess it was well settled before the borders were defined. Onate was probably something of a local hero.

Posted by: dh | Jul 6 2020 1:04 utc | 72

@69 You may get a little negative feedback on that comment V. Have you been following the activities of Jason Charter? He seems to be the goto guy when it come to dismantling statues. Google him.

Posted by: dh | Jul 6 2020 1:28 utc | 73

dh | Jul 6 2020 1:28 utc | 72
Have you been following the activities of Jason Charter? He seems to be the goto guy when it come to dismantling statues. Google him.

I did, soooo?
I do not follow anybody; but rather use my critical thinking skills to assess any given situation.
I stand by my opinion in said comment above.

I do find the idea of putting the statues in a museum interesting; but their destruction? Never.
The death of history is the beginning of tyranny...

Posted by: V | Jul 6 2020 1:49 utc | 74

@73 We appear to have one of those internet misunderstandings here. I wasn't suggesting for one minute that you might be a follower of Jason Charter.
Probably best if we stop trying to communicate.

Posted by: dh | Jul 6 2020 1:54 utc | 75

"Iran will have to respond, 4 attacks in less than 2 weeks is really taking the piss and makes them look weak. Quite a reversal from the Iran that was seizing tankers, acting on its threats and dictating the tempo of escalation."
Posted by: Et Tu | Jul 5 2020 23:07 utc | 56

...

Iran is playing Chess, the US are still trying to find the checkerboard yelling "King Me".

US military policy has been misguided for decades based on militarism as economic profiteering, not on the life or death principle of a Nation under attack.

Pure Propaganda-
"SECRETARY ALBRIGHT: But if we have to use force, it is because we are America; we are the indispensable nation. We stand tall and we see further than other countries into the future, and we see the danger here to all of us. I know that the American men and women in uniform are always prepared to sacrifice for freedom, democracy and the American way of life.

MR. LAUER: Secretary of State Madeleine Albright." Interview on NBC-TV "The Today Show" with Matt Lauer
Columbus, Ohio, February 19, 1998
...

1997 The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives -Zbigniew Brzezinski.

War profiteering, stealing resources and destroying other nations/economies is not much of a Grand long term Strategy. Iran is preparing, organizing and waiting- the Iranian Red Flag of "Revenge" for Soleimani is flying while Americans burn their own flag.

Posted by: CitizenX | Jul 6 2020 1:56 utc | 76

We appear to have one of those internet misunderstandings here. I wasn't suggesting for one minute that you might be a follower of Jason Charter.
Probably best if we stop trying to communicate.

That's fine.
But, to be clear, I was responding to your comment; @69; You may get a little negative feedback on that comment V.
Cheers

Posted by: V | Jul 6 2020 2:04 utc | 77

@76. I'll try to clarify that. My point was that here at MOA we have some commenters who love seeing statues pulled down. Actually they would like to see the whole system destroyed. I'm not one of them. Perhaps I could have phrased it better.

Posted by: dh | Jul 6 2020 2:11 utc | 78

@77 p.s. That does not make me a Trump fan.

Posted by: dh | Jul 6 2020 2:16 utc | 79

dh | Jul 6 2020 2:11 utc | 77

Ah, much better, thanks.
I don't worry the PC crowd; they're operating in herd mentality; brains generally on low and emotions on extreme high...

Posted by: V | Jul 6 2020 2:17 utc | 80

dh | Jul 6 2020 2:16 utc | 78

Never occured to me that you were... ;-)

Posted by: V | Jul 6 2020 2:19 utc | 81

My impression at this point:

Russia since Putin does not offer much global profit; Xi Jinping on the other hand does, for (manufacturing) stock market darlings like Apple, Amazon or Walmart etc. The five Eyes need an enemy to keep budgets up, anyone will do, and Russia is Wall street's favorite bogey, keeping China out of the limelight.

Western left keeps on supporting Xi, bedazzled by his orchestrated propaganda of being a benign ruler. They barely care about Russia, the main activity is denigrating their own West: "we" are bad = some European colonialists and fascists of two or more generations ago.

Posted by: Antonym | Jul 6 2020 3:07 utc | 82

The US

#25 Tests 113,588 / million

#13 Cases 9,011 / million

#9 Deaths 400 / million

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Posted by: snow_watcher | Jul 6 2020 3:08 utc | 83

Posted by: Bob Creamer | Jul 5 2020 15:08 utc | 5

It is quite right to talk about covid surviving victims being as much or more than an issue than covid-deaths.
but pretty soon you have to start talking numbers (or it becomes purely medical porn)
What proportion of people (at various ages etc) die?
What multiple of deaths are seriously injured victims?

From my optimistic pov (and the linked article), symptotic victims have lost perhaps 1 year of life expectancy, and if every one gets it, it means the lose of perhaps 2 months of life expectancy. I would welcome a fact based explanation of why I might be wrong.


**

OK, I'll bite. Although the data source looks solid, the statistical analysis is deeply, deeply flawed, and it doesn't pass a sniff test of comparing the purported risk with what is observed in the real world. This could suffice as an example of how to lie with statistics, although it's unclear if it's accidental or intentional. Here in the US, such "mistakes" are almost intentional especially under the current political leadership, but I don't know about the UK.

Here's why the data is misleading. The columns that are listed as "Covid rates per 100,000, covid rates per 100(%), and 1/covid rate expressed as a part /xx, such as 1/55, are in fact all Covid DEATHS RATES, not Covid rates, over a limited period of time of 9 weeks. Several statistical slights of hand are at play here. First the authors confound covid rates with covid death rates,leading the reader to think their risk of dying from Covid is 1.82% if they are over 90 yo. Second they imply that the time dependent cumulative risk of 33 days is an absolute risk - it isn't, and finally they suggest that individual risk approach population risk when it is known that there are significant comorbities that significantly alter individual risk profiles.

Let's take an example to help explain what's going on. Looking at the data chart from the Office of National Statistics replicated in the Medium article you linked to, we see that 9682 people over 90 y/o died during a 9 week period from an age related population of 528959 people and that the Covid Ratesof 90 y/o represents 1.83% of that population. Seems like your risk of dying is only 1.8% doesn't if you are over 90. Wrong 1.83% of the over 90 population died during a 9 week period. If that rate stays the same, 10.60% of the population will have died after 12 months. Leave quite a bit different impression doesn't it? What's missing that would help put the risk to this population in context? Number of covid cases! If there were 10,000 confirmed cases the case fatality rate would be 96.8%, if there were 100,000 the CFR would be 9.68%. Doesn't seem so reasonable now does it? Why is that readily available statistic glaringly not included in the chart? It leads the reader to a fuller understanding of risk, that's why.

Let's say the Covid infection rate were included, and let's initially say there were 10000 confirmed cases and 100,000 estimated infections in that age group over a 9 week period that led to the 9682 fatalities. That would represent a 96.8% case fatality rate, quite a bit different than the 1.83% rate the audience is left with. Similarly if you compare the 9682 fatalities to the estimated infection rate it would be 9.68% infection fatality rate still significantly higher. We know that the CFR for people in 90+ age group in March/April was exceedingly high, but I didn't attempt to research it.

They then go on to compare the 9682 fatalities to 18,523 all-cause typical mortality and conclude that 52% of a typical 63 day period or 33 days of risk. It's presented as an absolute number, and reasonable compared to all cause mortality. Yet that 33 day reduction continues to grow as this disease rips through the population. What's the population life reduction going to be over a two or three year period as each successively 9 week period pass and more fatalities are incured? It's a hell of a lot more than 33 day. After 1 year at a constant rate the average life expectancy reduction for the 90+ population will be 191 days. After two years it will be 382 days.

To understand individual risk requires that you understand your risk of contracting the disease, and if you do, your chances of dying. What would help put that in context? Number of Covid cases!

The good folks at the Office of National Statistics certainly know that population group risks don't represent individual risks, as individuals especially as they get older have know commodities that prevent you from saying individual risk could be approximated by population risk due to a normal distribution. And they certainly have the number of corona virus cases and maybe even a crude estimation of infection rates, that would frame their analysis in an entirely different light. Considering the likely intentional mislabeling of the "Covid Rates" instead of "Covid Death Rates", the obvious exclusion of the number of covid cases, and the subtle conflation of population based risk with individual risks, suggest this article was intended to mislead, probably to calm a population (and individuals :)) that are rightly mad as hell that the UK has the worse track record in Europe, and globally second only to the US, in dealing with Covid.

In the US, the risk of catching the disease is increasing, while the risk of dying if you do, are decreasing. In Arizona where I live, we've seen a 12 fold increase in cases, while nationwide in the US fatalities have been cut by 5 fold, implying an increasing risk for my personal risk profile.

If you are interested, there are good online calculators that calculate individual risks. Some have been covered in the excellent MedCram series of YouTube videos (somewhere in one of the videos in the '90s - they are all numbered consecutively. I highly recommend this series to all people as it covers the disease and new leanings as well as treatments and preventative approaches. Although general death rates have been going down they remain exceeding high for people with high BMI, inflammatory associated disease such as diabetes and CVD, or kidney disease.

Posted by: James C | Jul 6 2020 3:16 utc | 84

As for the timing of the likely pending Iran war,another consideration is the impact on financial markets.
The market went into a mini panic last September when the Yemeni missiles hit the Saudi refineries because the Saudis withdrew ~$60n - $80b from repo markets. Some blame JP Morgan for that, but someone I know who works at the repo trading desk of the US branch of a large foreign bank was adamant it was the Saudi pullback and JP Morgan had nothing to do with it. I thought that the US withdrew Patriot batteries from the Gulf infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, that is an odd move given Iran could destroy those facilities.

Posted by: Schmoe | Jul 6 2020 3:27 utc | 85

V and james at around 65, 66 - perhaps this will help, from mesonewmexico.org:

In 1614, Juan de Oñate was tried and convicted for the numerous crimes committed while in New Mexico (he was convicted of rape, disloyalty, murder, and stealing from the King, among other counts). As punishment, he was banished from the state of New Mexico for life, fined 6,000 Spanish Ducats, and exiled from Mexico City for 4 years.

The history of Spanish heritage in New Mexico has been undergoing careful scrutiny for the past several years, since many traditional celebrations have been either eliminated or taken under revision in order that all sides of that turbulent time, native, spanish, anglo are fairly accounted for as each culture experienced their common history. This is not according to political correctness of some form or another but will in the end correct past misjudgments and injustices, and provide a full historical record. Your point V at 73, "the death of history is the beginning of tyranny" ought to apply to the previous incarnation of Onate as hero. Clearly his own Spanish government did not think of him in those terms.

Posted by: juliania | Jul 6 2020 3:39 utc | 86

"The destruction of every statue and monument is the loss of a possible teaching moment; U.S. history is already a travesty of myth and fantasy; the insanity and its attendant guilt, is killing the U.S. as a viable society, IMO..."

Posted by: V | Jul 6 2020 0:48 utc | 69
..

Sure thing, whatever you say.

Clearly false propaganda statues play no part in "U.S. history being a travesty of myth and fantasy". Obvious to anyone "learning from statues" that they have nothing to do with delusions of history...

Hey at least we all still have "freedom of speech" right? It's not like we're being followed, monitored, filmed and siloed, commodified or anything along those lines. Nah not in Amurika.

The insanity you reference, both knowingly taught as an Institution and as Official Propaganda, happen to have some nasty by products. Statues being destroyed are far down on my list compared to the abuses of America on its own citizens and globally.

I seem to recall a certain propaganda moment celebrated by the West- Saddam Hussein statue covered with an American Flag being destroyed- media sure loved that eh? You DO remember that right? Its a real bitch when it happens to be citizens destroying their own statues? Perhaps your self proclaimed "critical thinking" is neither?

..
"Three weeks into the war, Marine Sgt. Ed Chin got the order: Help the Iraqis celebrating in Baghdad's Firdos Square topple the statue of Saddam Hussein.

"My captain comes over and he's got like this package. He hands it to me and he's like, he tells me there's an American flag in there and when I get up there, you know, he's like, show the boys the colors," said Chin.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/a-decade-after-saddam-husseins-statue-falls-a-tale-of-two-memories/

Posted by: CitizenX | Jul 6 2020 3:41 utc | 87

CitizenX | Jul 6 2020 3:41 utc | 85

...and your point is???
I'm sorry, but your post is incomprehensible.
My critical thinking skills are well intact, thank you...
Best look in your mirror...

Posted by: V | Jul 6 2020 3:53 utc | 88

Thank your plumber. Be glad he doesn’t much read the news.
Posted by: oldhippie | Jul 5 2020 18:51 utc | 28

That's the key!

Posted by: Activist Potato | Jul 6 2020 5:04 utc | 89

Destruction of monuments in the US is meaningless. Considering the types they have running the country, the clowns destroying monuments are a few hundred years behind the times. At the moment, they have the chance to destroy many war criminals, but being brainless americans they destroy stuff that's long past. Reminds me of the Rove quote about creating new reality while everyone is still studying past reality. PC americans are a few centuries behind current reality.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jul 6 2020 5:07 utc | 90

I sent the link of the lincoln project ad to a russian friend, the reaction was: что это за хрень? what the f*** is that?
The level of idiocy reached by the greatest empire in the history of mankind.
https://youtu.be/eUBAAeuBpPQ

Posted by: Paco | Jul 6 2020 5:53 utc | 91

Great debate and thread ! Pass me the pop corn.
So tell me again why guns are such a good thing?
What a brilliant sight to see those well trained Americans standing up for their rights,
That was a planned response to white supremists planning to turn up fully armed at a BLM protest.
There’s a strong whiff of hypocrisy about this thread.
I won’t be commenting on it again as I don’t like repeating myself. Few listen.
Kudos to CitizenX

The murder of George Floyd will have consequences get used to it.

Posted by: Mark2 | Jul 6 2020 9:22 utc | 92

B - "Washing your hands all the time is mostly unnecessary. We told you to #MaskUp"

Australia Federal Government & State Governments disagree with you.

A country that has been very successful in containing the CDovid 19 virus - all without masks.

"Use of masks by the public in the community
In Australia the routine use of face masks in the community is currently not recommended, while the rate of community transmission of COVID-19 is low.
A face mask is not a substitute for other precautions to prevent spread of COVID-19:
• staying at home when unwell, with even mild respiratory symptoms
• physical distancing (staying >1.5 m away from others)
• hand hygiene (and avoidance of touching potentially contaminated surfaces)
• cough etiquette and respiratory hygiene
Inappropriate use of masks is associated with risk
• they provide a false sense of security and may result in neglect of more important measures
• the use of a mask, alone, will not prevent infection
• touching the mask during use or when removing it can contaminate the hands
• risks are compounded if masks are pulled down or removed to consume food or drink
• single-use masks should not be reused, but discarded immediately after use
• masks will be less effective if they become damp or damaged
• many commercially available masks are of low quality and likely to be ineffective
• P2 or N95 masks should not be used as they are difficult to put on and take off safely"

Use of masks in public in the community


Posted by: ted01 | Jul 6 2020 10:11 utc | 93

Thanks for the feedback, yes there are caveats: depending on the beginning of the epidemy but also the density etc. I was surprised of the US number but indeed James explained it.
About Belgium, since they have both the EU and NATO, that is a good place to start investigations (but it won't happen). Maybe if they had smarter lawyers?

Posted by: Mina | Jul 6 2020 10:18 utc | 94

Our economy and society and culture and the future of our children have been destroyed by a virus. The STUPIDITY virus…the stupidity of people who believe everything that MSM propagandists tell them, who are incapable of checking anything for themselves and who think that utterly destroying the world economy will not open the gates of Hell…

https://richardhennerley.com/2020/07/06/bbc-admits-covid-19-lockdown-didnt-work-didnt-save-lives-didnt-stop-nhs-being-overwhelmed/

Posted by: Richard | Jul 6 2020 10:41 utc | 95

I see no reason at all to bring in a Nato connexion for the case of Belgium. It's just more 'connecting the dots'. Cloudspotting.
I don't even think the link average death toll to performance is that strong. Not by itself. Belgium got hit pretty early and especially flanders(northern Belgium) is more like a big city than a country. There is a lot of internal traffic. Compared to cities Flanders has not been hit that badly. If in Italy one city is hit much harder than another city is it just a matter of how well the country performed? Or even each city? I don't think so.

If you look closer though the death toll in the homes for the elderly is high, and then there are things you can put your finger on. understaffed, underqualified , and privatized to a certain degree(I don't really know the level) .Hospitals sent nurses to care homes to assist them because the people at the care homes weren't up to the job. Things have gone wrong there. Policies of what to do with those who got ill could use a review. For the rest I don't think policies were below par(I do try not to place the bar too high). Hospital beds were half full at peak.

In the first months the virologists were taking the lead and policies followed. The virologists did a decent job, in a conservative way: following WHO on masks for instance, fairly soft approach overall, apart from the lockdown which will destroy many businesses. Implementation was messy because the governing structures are overloaded so it is confusing to figure out who will do what.
There is a clear change now: The decision makers are now ignoring the virologists and they keep loosening up everything.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Jul 6 2020 11:00 utc | 96

Ref Belgium: we now know that the virus had been in Europe already before Christmas; NATO ppl and EU ppl travel much more than the average Belgian guy, mind you.
About this https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193455.shtml
that someone posted upthread, it is clear to me at least that the US are doing to the world what Brazil is doing to South America and its "first nations" in particular.

Posted by: Mina | Jul 6 2020 11:07 utc | 97

on statues...
Our myths have always been fantasy/fairy tale type stories wherein core values support the stories and images. Right wing, more rigid types have theirs: John Wayne, Charlton Heston, while the more "progressive" types have Robert Redford and Richard Gere, my personal favorite, Michael Jordan.
A crucial step toward deeper understanding is the humbling process of self introspection. I crave a good story that has a hero who demonstrates some combination of what I call virtue, whether it's Robert Redford in "All the President's Men" or Michael Jordan defeating the enemy/opposing team. The climax is satisfying and I'm hooked on it. Hey, I'm a homo sapiens. But I know that "following", supporting, worshiping a hero is dangerous and puts me on a path toward becoming a little or a lot fascist.
Monuments are propaganda points. We should know that. They are an important part of some people's fairy tale story that makes them feel good. Destroy that and you're getting very personal.
By the way, don't touch that statue of Michael Jordan!

Posted by: migueljose | Jul 6 2020 11:09 utc | 98

addition: we will never have the real figures of the EU and NATO ppl who have been infected but some EU ppl were in the early stage (February), as Barnier for ex., who got perfectly healthy quickly.
What I mean is that these ppl have probably infected many in Belgium, who did not need to travel to catch it: cleaning staff, transports, families..

Posted by: Mina | Jul 6 2020 11:09 utc | 99

Posted by: vk | Jul 5 2020 19:30 utc | 31

Conspiracy theories never die on MoA. They just get revived again and again by new commenters, however often disproved.

Posted by: Laguerre | Jul 6 2020 11:23 utc | 100

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