when we talk about mena arkansas, don’t forget that clinton was kissing reagan’s butt on that drug smuggling/terrorist supply network, i don’t think he was that addled at that point, so the buck stops with him, being president and making a career of supporting terrorists in central and south america.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 1 2020 14:35 utc | 103

Mao @ 68
This is a golden opportunity, universal mail-in ballots, for the US to transition back to hand written ballots, counted by hand in public (masked, gloved and shielded, open air, social distancing) and accepting of all writeins for the top position, then safely held for any future recounts. This could be done precinct by precinct, or via appropriate other groupings, in a gradual manner, with no deadline as to when the final count would be tallied (It’s the virus, you know; we the public shall be patient). It’s doable! Observers could be chosen by lot (also out in the open). Twelve ought to do it, for each count. No Brooks Brothers are eligible.
I can’t see where this would be anything but simple. A worthy matter to be decided publicly. You want to protest? This is worth protesting about! Organized by the people, for the people. And not any private firm picking up the ballots. Our long suffering public postal service is all we need, thank you!

Posted by: juliania | Aug 1 2020 14:44 utc | 105

Grieved @ 72 and psychohistorian above that, I hadn’t read your two excellent posts when I gave my bit on mailin ballots, but the same ‘weltgeist’ seems to be in play. With the electoral vote being such a bone of contention ever since 2000 in the US, that top-down orchestration is even in play there, with core freedoms having been usurped as the power shifts were undertaken.
I would volunteer for this, and I would march for it also. I’m 80 this month – time to roll up my sleeves!

Posted by: juliania | Aug 1 2020 14:53 utc | 107

@NemesisCalling,
you must not be aware of the accusations from “Jane Doe”:

Fifteen women have now gone on record to say that Donald Trump sexually assaulted them. Out of all of their stories, one is the most explosive and bizarre — a woman who says Trump violently raped her at an orgy when she was just 13 years old. But the horrific details of her accusation have gotten the least attention.
It seemed like that was all going to change Wednesday, when the woman, who has gone by the pseudonyms “Katie Johnson” and “Jane Doe,” was set to appear at a press conference at the law offices of Lisa Bloom, a high-profile civil rights attorney and TV commentator. But the woman didn’t come to the press conference. Bloom told a room full of waiting reporters that Johnson was afraid to show her face after receiving multiple death threats, and that they would have to reschedule.

my understanding of this incident, which went down BEFORE the 2016 election, is it wasn’t just death threats but a massive DOS attack that brought down Bloom’s website and live feed of the press conference.

Posted by: lizard | Aug 1 2020 15:00 utc | 109

@114 lizard
What is there to say about this? I hope it isn’t true.
But I also know that if you have been terrorized and if you have had years to think about it, then you will probably have to admit that you are not done being terrorized and that you would have to come forward, to relive it, to be terrorized again, on the witness stand to tell your story.
If you have had years to think about it, this is the only conclusion that I can surmise: you must face your trauma again to finally make peace with it.
I would imagine that anyone who had suffered a violent orgy at a young age would qualify as victim. But what makes me believe that their story could be embellished or might not have happened at all, is their failure to show when their heroic responsibility needs them most.
I doubt Trump was thanking his lucky stars. I bet he was just rolling his eyes.
But I could be wrong. But you must admit that a deranged woman whose life has not allowed her the things she had desired will thrash and grab and reach out to pull down the most powerful they happen to know. There has been many a cleared man who once suffered under the weight of a woman’s false accusations.
So there’s that.

Posted by: Nemesiscalling | Aug 1 2020 15:10 utc | 111

For whatever reason, the Deep State has been suppressing the proven trio, which has worked in China and selected other parts of the world.
Huawei 5G infrastructure,delivering the Tik Tok app via Huawei smart phones.
Apparently the infrastructure and phone together open a “backdoor” that allows the Tik Tok app to inoculate users against Covid. But, it has to be applied before the virus takes hold to be 100 % effective.
And masks. Clearly, as Louis Gohmert has shown, masks should not be worn, but instead used like fly strips to capture the virus. Hanging from the ceiling, attached to sensors to alert trained personnel to properly dispose of the mask once a predetermined weight of virus is captured.

Posted by: Randy | Aug 1 2020 15:26 utc | 113

This is from Lambert’s Water Cooler yesterday at nakedcapitalism.com:-

• Imagine the timeline if Democrats had supported hand-marked paper ballots, hand-counted in public after the 2000 debacle. Now we have a system that’s broken because both parties want the capacity to steal elections. They made their bed….

Also there is a podcast from Barack and Michelle Obama, both pictured. I would not have recognized her. (The picture of Dorian Grey does come to mind.)
Once again, weltgeist. I only just started reading the Watercooler. Lambert even sadly mentions the ailing Post Office, after paying appropriate attention to UPS. All other attention is on Red and Blue: up, up, up. TINA…

Posted by: juliania | Aug 1 2020 15:40 utc | 115

This is indeed a very cool thing (kudos to Lambert again):

“…we have two types of immunity: innate immunity, which jumps into action within hours, sometimes just minutes, of an infection; and adaptive immunity, which develops over days and weeks…. That antibodies decrease once an infection recedes isn’t a sign that they are failing: It’s a normal step in the usual course of an immune response. Nor does a waning antibody count mean waning immunity: The memory B cells that first produced those antibodies are still around, and standing ready to churn out new batches of antibodies on demand.” • So, even if the bloodstream isn’t full of antibodies, the body retains the recipes for them. That is extremely cool.” [my bold]

And from the NYT this comes, so I guess Times readers profit from being mostly ‘up’.

Posted by: juliania | Aug 1 2020 15:53 utc | 117

A couple of relevant section from the NPR which I think Putin was replying to.
https://media.defense.gov/2018/Feb/02/2001872886/-1/-1/1/2018-NUCLEAR-POSTURE-REVIEW-FINAL-REPORT.PDF
From page 21…
“The United States would only consider the employment of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances
to defend the vital interests of the United States, its allies, and partners. Extreme circumstances
could include significant non-nuclear strategic attacks. Significant non-nuclear strategic attacks
include, but are not limited to, attacks on the U.S., allied, or partner civilian population or
infrastructure, and attacks on U.S. or allied nuclear forces, their command and control, or warning
and attack assessment capabilities.
The United States will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons
states that are party to the NPT and in compliance with their nuclear non-proliferation obligations.
Given the potential of significant non-nuclear strategic attacks, the United States reserves the right
to make any adjustment in the assurance that may be warranted by the evolution and proliferation
of non-nuclear strategic attack technologies and U.S. capabilities to counter that threat.”
And page 34…
“Our deterrence strategy is designed to ensure that the Iranian leadership understands that
any non-nuclear strategic attack against the United States, allies, and partners would be
defeated, and that the cost would outweigh any benefits. There is no plausible scenario in
which Iran may anticipate benefit from launching a strategic attack. Consequently, U.S
deterrence strategy includes the capabilities necessary to defeat Iranian non-nuclear,
strategic capabilities, including the U.S. defensive and offensive systems capable of
precluding or degrading Tehran’s missile threats. The United States will continue to
strengthen these capabilities as necessary to stay ahead of Iranian threats as they grow.
Doing so will enhance U.S. security and that of our regional allies and partners.”
The page 34 section states plainly that US is willing to use nuclear weapons against Iran’s non nuclear capabilities.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 1 2020 16:34 utc | 119

I should have highlighted this in my previous post.
The United States will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons
states that are party to the NPT and in compliance with their nuclear non-proliferation obligations.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 1 2020 16:47 utc | 121

After the drone shoot-down last week, Israel and USA sought to convince Russia to allow a strike against Iran. The Russians rebuffed this request as well as the depiction of Iran as a terrorist state
Newsweek: Russia Warns U.S. and Israel That Iran Is Its ‘Ally’ and Was Right About Drone Shoot Down

“In the context of the statements made by our partners with regard to a major regional power, namely Iran, I would like to say the following: Iran has always been and remains our ally and partner, with which we are consistently developing relations both on bilateral basis and within multilateral formats,”

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Aug 1 2020 17:03 utc | 123

@131
I take it you have never been personally defamed by a woman spreading rumors about you before? I have so I can attest. And I bet you were team Blasey-Ford and MeToo, even though most of the accused landed firmly on the side of the Democratic Party and our entertainment-industry. Do you follow your wife’s boyfriend’s line of thinking on these thing? I would think so.
I advise everyone to take note of the debasement of decorum that this poster exhibits when his worldview is challenged by someone like myself who merely posited that the burden of proof falls upon them that accuse and that, while easy to slander someone from the shadows in calumny, it is an entirely different thing to show up to their testimony when they have to show face and to speak clearly.
My post was truthful. Yours was just intentionally hurtful. Too bad I take no stock in your opinion. And this ain’t my first rodeo of posters trying to shame me. Take a number, buddy.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 1 2020 17:46 utc | 125

Multiple posts about Bill Barr’s insider status. Don’t see one that mentions he was born CIA. His father Donald Barr was OSS and original 1947 CIA. His career move to be an “educator” only meant that he worked in recruitment.
The CIA has factions. We are not privileged to know much about them. Barr’s loyalty is more likely with the company than withTrump.

Posted by: oldhippie | Aug 1 2020 17:50 utc | 127

The Dems. are absolute champions of hypocrisy and hysterical obfuscations. They are also rather primitive and short-sighted, which all added up means they perpetually accuse others of their own sins, in narcissistic manipulatory fashion. (Like the abusive husband – prove you wasn’t unfaithful – the teen vicious girl bully – you are a slut – etc.)
“Trump won’t accept the election results” is a meme that has been going around for ages. Now he hinted he might not accept, everyone is all agog. All it signals is that the Dems. are preparing the ground to contest the results and create serious mayhem. (See the prelude BLM.)
In 2016 they were taken up short, thru lack of attention, stupidity and hubris – typical of a small cadre or consigliere group imagining they control everything. They haven’t exited that bubble because they can’t – reform is impossible. Their choice of Biden as a possible placeholder (he might be ‘retired’ and replaced, or a VP slot might be the P pick, etc.) probably seems like a good strategy to them, canny and all. Well over 70, brain damaged, senile and with a reputation of sniffing up little girls, the very idea of ‘a leader’ is dead at the door.
All it evidences is that the whole ‘primary process’ and what one might generously dub ‘will of the ppl’ as the Dems institute it is a total sham (see Sanders), a transparent masquerade. Plus that the Dems have no viable, interesting candidate – the last stab was Obama, whom the Clintons loathed, and many in top spots opposed – but then the ‘vote’ still counted (even if manipulations were going on – imho only for under 5% of the vote and this was accepted by all parties) so Obama was a sure win. Then he was forced of course to nominate Killary…this was seen as a temp. aberration to be dealt with.
Ok, the repubs. So is Trump their candidate or what? 🙂 The democratic ‘process’ in the US was always an affair of convos in smoke-filled back rooms, and mucho corruption, dirty dealing. What is happening now is that the system is cracking fast and nobody knows if they want dikes to shore it up, to pretend this or that, or to profit from a or b, or to ally with x or y, or to check out, etc. The masks are coming off (oh…wait) … one thing is for sure is the US population will not move or do anything.
jack at 56 I agree, Skripals being 3-way spies is nonsense. Skripal senior was a washed-out guy who did get some ‘kudos’ grudgingly from the ‘spy’ community – ex. he came here (Switz.) and gave some weak talks etc. I reckon he did want to go back to Russia and may have made some feelers or requests to do so, but he would have been ignored or at best shoved to the back of the queue. The Brits never informed him of anything much (imho), etc. Plus, all this going down when his daughter was there makes no sense for a savvy person, etc. No, the unravelling of that story will turn out to be quite humdrum, with a lot of ‘accidents’ and ‘mistakes’ etc. (if we ever find out..) with the usual Brit. *Russia Russia Russia* crowd cashing in opportunistically.

Posted by: Noirette | Aug 1 2020 18:21 utc | 129

@15 jayc Trump would have to somehow get the armed forces on his side in order to initiate a coup d’ etat (sp?), I would think. Is there any chance of that occuring?

Posted by: jonboinAR | Aug 1 2020 18:22 utc | 131

Concerning militias: There are some armed left-wing militias in the U.S. such as the Seattle area John Brown Gun Club and the Oakland-based Huey P. Newton Gun Club. I believe one of these militias helped save some ministers at the Charlottesville event when they were surrounded by fascists.

Posted by: JPM | Aug 1 2020 19:59 utc | 133

iirc the black panthers started carrying rifles around at some events, as they had a legal right to do, back in california in the 60’s, and ronnie reagan got some california law passed that stopped them. i’m not sure why that didn’t violate their 2d amendment rights, but you can bet the nra wasn’t going to take up the cause. recently, a protestor who was carrying a gun was shot by a driver who claims he was acting in self defense–protestors at the scene said the driver was the aggressor. and now congress won’t give ordinary unemployed americans money to support themselves during the pandemic, after corporations got trillions to play the stock market instead of hiring people. i don’t know if the donor class and its paid politicians are trying to foment civil insurrection or just blundering into it.

Posted by: pretzelattack | Aug 1 2020 20:08 utc | 135

@136 Sakineh Bagoom
That’s right, no one ever did come up with another country that could initiate an attack on a US base with missiles, completely transparently as a state action, and receive no response.
And then that country went on to ship its oil to Venezuela, and promised to react as if to an act of war if its ships were interfered with by the US, and the ships were not interfered with.
I find it amazing, frankly, that anyone can fail to see the significance of these events, or witness these events without understanding the shift in the balance of power, but I will no longer attempt to persuade anyone that Iran cannot be attacked successfully.
It doesn’t really matter, I suppose, whom we can persuade in this forum. It’s enough that Israel knows it cannot attack Iran and wastes all its influence to persuade the Pentagon to attack, which is futile since the Pentagon knows also that it cannot attack Iran.
~~
I’d like to repeat my earlier comparison with Israel’s position. Israel is stymied by Hezbollah in the same way that the US is stymied by Iran. And in both countries, the politicians howl a terrifying bluster, but the military does nothing. The politicians and the zionist/neocon hustlers can shriek all they want, but in the end it’s the military that goes to war – or not.
The IDF doesn’t want to face Hezbollah, and the Pentagon doesn’t want to face Iran. Both for the same reason, that they know absolutely that they will suffer a punishing and public defeat, one which will destroy all their remaining power of bluff.
The Saker has some interesting articles lately about the Israeli situation, if you’re interested, notably about that mysterious border skirmish that possibly was fought by only one side:
What happened —and didn’t happen— at the Israel-Lebanon border?
Lebanon-Israel border fire: Scandal or victory for Tel Aviv?

Posted by: Grieved | Aug 1 2020 22:56 utc | 137

What is happening in Belarus?
We thought the it would be only the Empire that would end giving violent jolting through which many of us could result seriously damaged… hence the attitude of restraint and patience by China and Russia on their bet for a soft landing and accomodation of the new situation/paradigm change…
What we did not think of ( at least not me…) was that all those countries dependant of the hegemon or playing the subjective stance ( like Belarus…Poland… the Baltics…see Colonel Cassad´s anlysis ) would suffer of equal if not more shaken environment in the middle of the uncertainty and the impossibility to continue milking two cows…This is why, even when we do not like the EU as it is constituted right now, as a liberal house, I do not see any point in leaving it now ( as some non-European continuously push for here, what leads me to think they work for the US stablishment…), just when the hegemon is falling and the world is reorganizing…We will fall in the same weak position as Belarus…akin to be dismembered.. or worst, become a failing state…
According ot the last analysis by Rostislav Ischenko at Stalker Zone, it seems that sectors of the security services, as it is happening in the US, are trying to “secure” their future in what they deem as a situation similar to that of the 90s in Moscow, and thus organized the luring of some hundred Russian PMC, some with double Ukrainian/Russian passport, to be blamed for a coming Belarusian Maidan and violent overthrow of Lukashenko. Under the menace of being extradited to the Ukraine, as some seem to have fought in Donbass, where they would face 15 years jail in the best of cases, or in the worst a death sentence by “suicide” into jail ( the Epstein treatment…), Ischenko asures some “will be persuaded by the KGB of Belarus to admit that they “on the instructions of Japanese intelligence dug a tunnel from Bangkok to London”….to save life…
Well, it seems that some others are being hard to peel and mantain they were going to Istanbul to visit Hagia Sophia….These PMC were found most suspicious by the “KGB of Belarus” because they found themselves stranded during a week in Misnk by the same Belarusian company who hired them to go to Lybia to fight along the opposite site supported by the Russians there, and moreover they do not smoke nor drink….You see…

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Aug 1 2020 23:56 utc | 139

From twitter…with video…
Benjamin Alvarez
@BenjAlvarez1
As Germany is experiencing a strong increase of new #COVID19 cases, this is happening right now in Berlin. #b0108
A “Day of Freedom” with conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers & right-wing extremists. No one is wearing a mask.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Aug 2 2020 1:14 utc | 141

S Korea arrests church leader for obstructing coronavirus fight

Your typical Christian preacher…

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Aug 2 2020 1:18 utc | 143

@138 Peter AU1
You’ve been studying this tactical nuke impulse of the US for a long time so I defer to you on it. I think you may have a scenario that’s real. As you suggest, we may know one day many years from now, or we may never know.
Certainly Russia has been preparing for real war in deadly earnest for some time, and continues to try to get this message across to the west, which appears continually not to hear it, to Russia’s great despair and further preparation for war. There is also no doubt that Russia has expanded its doctrine to include retaliation for tactical nukes, and as you have shown, this applies to allies as well as to Russian territory.
Logic says Russia has to make this expansion to embrace allies as well as home territory, in order to match parity to keep MAD alive. If Russia would only retaliate for nuclear attacks on its own soil, then MAD would no longer obtain – because obviously any nuclear power will work on retaliation for such strikes, if only dead-hand revenge.
What’s missing from the equation with Iran is a demonstration by Iran of lethal retaliation against the US that can survive US tactical nukes. It’s obvious that Iran must have long planned and provisioned for this, but we have not seen the demonstration of it – and absent that demonstration the Pentagon might, I suppose, cave in to political forces urging a few “limited” strikes.
Perhaps, perhaps not, but this kind of suicidal madness from the US would be enough to force the Kremlin to adjust its doctrine in order keep MAD at parity with such stupidity.
It does all kind of fit with your thinking of the past couple of years.
The Pentagon knows that it has no means of conventional warfare to attack Iran and escape unscathed. It must also surely know the same for tactical nukes, and for the same reasons. Iran is big, with a vastly distributed warfaring infrastructure, and an unknown portion of it hidden from reconnaissance. The problem with nuking Iran is the same as hitting it with conventional munitions – you just can’t take out enough of its military infrastructure in time to prevent a massive counter that sinks your fleet, brings down a lot of your planes, and raises the political damage in Washington to screaming levels.
And still, Iran will have distributed responses remaining, as well as its submarines – perhaps off the east coast of the US, who can say? – that you can’t stop from causing serious damage to the US.
I’m no expert, but tactical nukes are just big bombs, and they suffer from the same limitations as regular bombs – you have to use an almost unimaginably large amount of them to cripple Iran. And one thing you don’t get with Iran is a long, sustained campaign of destruction. The counterattack would happen instantaneously and it would be full-on.
[That’s even assuming of course that the US would be allowed to build up its forces in preparation for such a strike without triggering a painful response from Iran. Iran would not allow the necessary buildup. This is where I see the impasse, and why I can’t see any logistical way for the US to mount an attack.]
There’s a lot of madness in this kind of thinking. I could even suspect that the Kremlin looks at Iran’s response as the larger threat. The screaming pain that Iran would inflict on the US if seriously attacked could unite the generals into Strangelove territory – and then it’s goodbye world.
All in all, it’s better MAD than madness. And this is why the Russian doctrine has to expand to allies and apply even to tactical nukes. You can’t bluff with MAD. The Kremlin is serious.
So I buy your thesis as a very real possibility – many thanks. I always read all your comments by the way. Glad to take this opportunity to respond at length. Just my two cents.

Posted by: Grieved | Aug 2 2020 1:53 utc | 145

Grieved
Thanks for the long reply. My thought at the time was Trump would not do things the way they have always been done so to speak.
No large build up near Iran was necessary. Tridents in first to cut through and destroy air defenses, with long range bombers following right behind to hit known missile sites (B52s I think could strike from the US) then joined by any smaller aircraft that could be fielded to clean up remaining air defenses and so forth same happening to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
Perhaps the Trump admin was thinking something along those lines perhaps not, but my thought on Trump and his dislike of endless wars was that he was looking for a ‘final solution’ for the Iran problem. And that was not just related to Israel but also the Tehran embassy hostage drama which Trump felt was a great humiliation for the US.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 2 2020 2:29 utc | 147

@Laguerre | 92
But the fact that the Oruc Reis explorarion was stopped dead in its tracks and Erdogan’s threats have been silenced overnight implies that pressure was applied by those who understood that such an exercise would leave Greece little choice but to engage and those who thankfully were not so lazily dismissive as to categorise it as more than just the “standard” Turkish bitching and biting about throwing the Greeks into the sea rhetoric that we hear every month or so.

Posted by: AtaBrit | Aug 2 2020 3:30 utc | 149

@147 Peter AU1
I get that, and it sounds feasible. But would it work? In your review of the scene, are you actually getting the sense that the Pentagon thinks that at long last it actually has a way to strike Iran with relative safety?
Does the Pentagon really believe that it can strike Iran sufficiently to destroy all of its power to retaliate? I haven’t studied this, but I have not heard even a whisper that this could be the case.
Because Iran has also announced its doctrine here, and it is that all of the resistance forces in several countries will go all-in simultaneously against the local US forces in the ME. But even with Iran alone, all those bases are targeted and provided for regardless of what the US destroys in Iran. I’ve seen counts of how many troops are at risk from resistance missiles in the numerous bases in the region – is it something like 45,000 personnel?
There seems to me no doubt that if the US strikes Iran first, then the entire world will sit back and forgive the retaliation from Iran. There is also no doubt that every one of those bases – including the nice big one in Qatar – will be more or less destroyed, and with whatever loss of life comes out of that. And the US will not have a leg to stand on – are they going to complain about a disproportionate response after a massive first strike on Iran?
And where does it go from there? As Sagineh Bagoom keeps saying, it’s not the starting of a war with Iran that’s the difficult thing, it’s the ending of it.
80 million Iranians will fight the US to the death until the US sues for peace or those Iranians are dead. Not to speak of the other peoples in the region. Oh, and Israel by the way will have effectively disappeared off the map in the time period we’re talking about here.
Does the Pentagon believe it can target Hezbollah – or crucially, its missiles – when the Israelis don’t even know where they are? Do they really think they can bomb guerrillas? How much scorched earth in Lebanon will the world accept as the fair price for the loss of Tel Aviv?
Anyone can sit in on a game of poker, but when you raise the bet you either win accordingly or you lose more. The US doesn’t have the cards. Neither does Israel. They both go down, and if the world survives, it will not miss either of them.
I get that Trump likes his massacres quick and finished. I get that the neocons and the Zionists are beyond reality. But as I said, it’s the military that goes to war. Everyone talks about how the US can war on Iran but no one says how the US can shield itself from the retaliation – and it is the retaliation that is key on this war, because Iran can take pain but the US cannot. I can’t find any way that the Pentagon can prevent the inevitable retaliation. And the retaliation will cost the US far more than it can afford.
The US does not have the price of the ticket to this war, in my opinion. It’s not the strike that’s the problem, it’s the cost of that strike.

Posted by: Grieved | Aug 2 2020 3:55 utc | 151

Japan: Okinawa declares COVID-19 emergency after US base outbreaks
So, where’s the HK-esque zealotry from the Western freedum brigade with regards to the rights of Okinawan locals who has always been bitterly opposed to US bases on their soil?
The birds are still chirpin’.

Posted by: J W | Aug 2 2020 5:43 utc | 153

Posted by: Grieved | Aug 2 2020 1:53 utc | 145

That’s even assuming of course that the US would be allowed to build up its forces in preparation for such a strike without triggering a painful response from Iran. Iran would not allow the necessary buildup. This is where I see the impasse, and why I can’t see any logistical way for the US to mount an attack.

Even at their peak, the US military still took SIX months to build up in Saudi Arabia before they were confident to commence Gulf War I. To complete such a build up with impunity against Iran will be impossible today, especially not with the dreadful state of maintenance as evidenced by the strings of crashes and fires since May.

Posted by: J W | Aug 2 2020 6:44 utc | 155

such an exercise would leave Greece little choice but to engage
Posted by: AtaBrit | Aug 2 2020 3:30 utc | 149
Ah yes, the Greeks are always in the right. The fact is the Greeks have been extremely aggressive for decades, with the full approval of Europe and the West behind them. Landgrabbing, rights-grabbing – that’s why there’s a mess in Cyprus. But “Greece had no choice” apparently, according to you. With a Greece fully supported from the West, yes they can afford to threaten war, at the smallest disagreement, as they have done since 1920.
I thought you were someone who was supposed to know something about Turkey, as I took from your handle, but you don’t seem to have much of a notion about Turkish motivations, apart from the Istanbul bubble, that is. I hold absolutely no candle for Erdogan, and he’s a megalomaniac, but a bit of a balanced approach would be useful. Erdogan is like he is, because that’s what his electorate wants. And he’s done pretty well winning elections, even if the Istanbul bubble is always predicting he won’t win the next.

Posted by: Laguerre | Aug 2 2020 10:27 utc | 157

Posted by: Mina | Aug 2 2020 9:21 utc | 156
“When this kind of lunatics are among the richest ppl on earth, you know you have a problem..”
Lots of people seem to lose their minds when they get a lot of money.
Elon is clearly a media creation, and we know who owns the media here, so maybe he will be our next President. He’d be the perfect followup for Trump.

Posted by: Bemildred | Aug 2 2020 11:34 utc | 159

I am fuming after reading this essay by a former Montana legislative rep. who is trying to get the reopening of schools cancelled before it even starts. she claims it’s us parents who are engaging in “magical thinking”, but get a load of some of these excerpts, like this one:

Imagine recess, for instance: Kids playing the game du jour with gloves on their hands and masks on their faces, the ball being washed after the accidents that will happen. Kids being shushed singing jump rope songs – “the droplets!” Kid standing in a socially distanced line waiting for the monkey bars to be cleaned between each child’s romp. Kids being monitored by a masked adult with an electronic whistle or perhaps a pool noodle to corral the errant children erupting in a game of tag into the tiresome, deadening, ever-present, socially distanced, droplet-free zone. My generation blamed decades of substance abuse on the trauma of hiding under our desks for 15 minutes waiting for the atom bomb to hit. This pales in comparison.

and this one:

May I mention the teachers and staff – what we now call “essential workers,” which, loosely defined, means “people we pay squat and treat worse so that they can take care of our kids while we go off to be big shots and make a ton of money”? What kind of magical thinking does it take to believe that a workforce 33% of whom are over 50 years old and a goodly number of whom suffer from debilitating conditions, are going to be just fine in that petri dish of humanity we call a public school?

and this one:

Anne Frank probably didn’t learn in quite the same way the 761 days she spent in hiding. But anyone who has read her diary cannot doubt that she learned … or that her forced isolation in turn forced a level of study and reflection deeper than what any kids experiences in any school.

as a magical thinking BIG SHOT parent exploiting poor teachers so I can make a TON OF MONEY, I am very happy to hear from this reasonable former Democrat legislative representative how Anne Frank’s remote learning went /snark
seriously, if you don’t think Democrats are willing to politicize school reopening, demonize desperate parents, and weaponize children’s education against Trump, so their sexual abuser can obtain power over the other side’s sexual abuser, then you are as delusional as Mary Fucking Moe

Posted by: lizard | Aug 2 2020 14:01 utc | 161

Delta Crescent Energy. Formed beginning of 2019 and nothing else on it. I guess Trump and a few mates divvying up the spoils.
https://www.bizapedia.com/de/delta-crescent-energy-llc.html

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Aug 2 2020 14:26 utc | 163

@ Grieved, PeterAU, Sakineh Bagoom
Back in his real estate development days, my understanding is that Trump’s MO was to make a deal on some big project, get all the subcontractors neck-deep into the job, and then tell them he’s changing the deal, demanding they take much less than he’d agreed to pay but trusting that they would be so in fear of completely going under and getting nothing, they would agree to a pittance. And if they tried to fight Trump had no qualms about walking away and letting the whole thing go down, because he was generally personally insulated. Incredibly immoral, but of course by the Rules of Capitalism one could say he was simply using relatively legal methods to find the lowest market price for what he wanted to accomplish.
I think this is instructive on how he approaches “diplomacy” and international affairs. Trump loves the bluster and bluff, which is why he got along so famously with Kim Jung Un. Trump could send carrier groups and threaten all sorts of completely over-the-top military action, and Kim would simply respond in kind. It was like two professional wrestlers “proving” how tough they were by saying they’re tough, but somehow both innately understanding that both were playing the game, and there would be no kinetic action of any kind. So as soon as they had each sufficiently puffed up their chest, it was forgotten and the kindred spirits got down to talking like school chums.
Iran was different, partly because I think Trump, like so many Americans who were young adults during the hostage crisis, deemed Iran to be an enemy for life. But also, just like his old real estate days, he took it as given that all he had to do was repudiate the “contract” with Iran and increase the financial pressure, and they would give in just like all his old business adversaries. But of course a nation with that heritage simply can’t give in, so I think that left Trump a bit confused and increasingly frustrated. He tried the N. Korea style bluster, but Iran don’t play that, so frustrated again. That left him with the sucker-punch tactic, like he got away with in Syria a few times, but after the Solomoni assassination even the partial response was shocking.
My fear was that there were (probably Israeli) voices whispering in Trump’s ear that all he needed was a sufficiently large sucker-punch, and threat of more to come, and Iran would surely capitulate. I seem to recall Trump making some troubling comments about turning part of Iran to glass, and in that same time-frame the dial-a-nukes were placed aboard subs headed almost certainly for the ME. I was frightened that some idiot had convinced Trump that all he had to do was make a sufficiently ruthlessly powerful display, such as nuking a militarized island of Iran’s, perhaps near the Strait, and then tell Iran that Teheran was next unless they surrendered, and that it would all be over just like that. I have a feeling that may have come close to happening, before likely some Pentagon voices chimed up and made it clear to Trump that this is not how it would go down, so unless he was genuinely ready to nuke all of Iran, and likely still take substantial counter-strikes, he needed to re-think that plan.

Posted by: J Swift | Aug 3 2020 2:01 utc | 165

Is Turkeys economic health interesting?
Given Erodgan’s current unpopulatiry and given the nature of Covid to sway influence over a country, i think it is.
https://www.ft.com/content/cb70275f-8b7d-453c-9184-6d65815a8b10
Here’s a very honest and insightful article, in my view. To an extent it is testament to an honest attempt to protect Turkey’s economy and businesses – Erdogan is battling to pull through to 2023, let’s not forget. However the point repeated throughout is that the banking strategy is based on there being no second wave of Covid. Yet, watching what I can of the news from Turkey at the moment, Kurban Bayram has seen masses of domestic tourists flood beaches with no care for masks or distancing – just like the old dudes praying outside Haiga Sofia – and already there are reports infection rates having returned to June’s levels. Add to that the recently opened borders with Russia tourists arriving and the situation is predicted to get worse. Working on the assumption that there will be no second wave may well be the flaw in the plan. (Just to remind you that the EU has heavily criticised the veracity of Turkey’s ‘well performing’ COVID figures!)
What the article omits to mention, however, is that many raw materials used to produce exportable goods and goods for domestic use are themselves imported. So, when the TL falls, those businesses will see their raw material costs rise massively. Precisely the reason why so many businesses failed or were on the brink of failure in 2018.
Regarding the TL, it’s been interesting watching the ‘support’ of the Lira at just under the 7tl:1$ mark. But when I read in this article that this year alone it had cost the reserves $65bn to achieve this I was shocked. That’s 455bn TL!! unbelievable = 3x the minimum monthly salary per member of the Turkish population including toddlers!).
Unsurprisingly, Turkish financial advisors are telling people that the TL will sharply lose value in the coming months. When that happens businesses will start closing. When that happens, the political situation in Turkey will heat up. The opposition is already finding its voice thanks to the Babacan’s new Dev Party which could take a lot of support directly from AKP. Interestingly Dev could mean giant, or it could mean ostrich. )))

Posted by: AtaBrit | Aug 3 2020 10:09 utc | 167

“Ah yes, the Greeks are always in the right”
That is of course a precisely what I said.
“I thought you were someone who was supposed to know something about Turkey”
Then challenge it. Because at the moment all you are doing is and bitching and biting like someone arrogant enough to presume they know it all when in fact the content of your comments displays precisely the opposite.
” “Greece had no choice” apparently, according to you.”
From your first dismissive response to my post I suspected you had not bothered to read the article, or at least not to the end. Now, you have proven me right: The comment was reference to the article, not my own. But it is nonetheless interesting to see any Erdogan action stopped dead in its tracks – with the stage immigration wave earlier this year, exactly the same happened, strangely within hours of a EU delegation conference call with Erdo. No anouncement. Just Erdogan’s belicose rhetoric and staged footage of refugees at the border dissappeared immediately from every news programme. Here with the Oruc Reis threats, exactly the same has happened. So, I tend to believe that pressure was applied by the EU and Erdogan was stopped in his tracks. That intervention alone implies that the situation had reached a serious level. If you have a different theory please share it, because .. well, so far all you’ve done is try to invalidate my comments.
But thanks for your insightful and informative responses.(I wish!) )))

Posted by: AtaBrit | Aug 3 2020 11:59 utc | 169

“A coalition of over two dozen parties, all backing opposition figurehead Juan Guaido, have announced they will not take part in the upcoming parliamentary vote in December, claiming any outcome is “electoral fraud” by default. ”
how to avoid losing

Posted by: arby | Aug 3 2020 13:00 utc | 171