U.S. President Donald Trump has finally recognized that his reelection is in danger. The most obvious cause for that is the pandemic which is spreading uncontrolled throughout the United States.
When the pandemic broke out in Wuhan, China, the U.S. did not take it seriously. The reporting in most main stream outlet was concentrated on maligning China. No danger for the U.S. was anticipated.
A small early outbreak in Washington state was soon brought under control. Trump thought that the pandemic was not going to touch him. It was – in his view – like Russiagate and Ukrainegate just another fake scare that the Democrats were using against him.
Then Italy was hit as well as other European countries. That was a bit of a warning but still not serious enough to take countermeasures. Then came New York and finally it dawned on everyone that the U.S. was unprepared.
Trump recognized that he had to do something. A chaotic White House started to buy up everything – masks, ventilators, drugs – that would be possibly needed. A nationwide lockdown was implemented. The stock market crashed but Trump threatened the Fed until it saved the markets and his bacon. Every day he held widely noted press conference about the pandemic and his 'wonderful' response to it.
The casualties in New York turned out to mostly black lower class people. Only few in Trump's social circles were affected. The numbers in New York came down but the economy still lingered. Against the opinion of every noted specialist Trump declared that the pandemic was over.
He stopped the press conferences and urged that the lockdowns be lifted. There was an election to win and an economy that had to be revived to make that possible.
But the virus had different plans. Trump's June campaign event in Tulsa, Oklahoma, was a flop. Too few people attended. Especially the elder people who usually attended such events stayed away. At the beginning of July Trump stopped live campaigning. Then came the big pandemic waves in states that had voted for Trump. Suddenly it was no longer the black underclass of liberal New York that was dying but the elderly white in Republican states who had voted for Trump.
The mood in the country had turned against him. Trumps poll numbers are down. The economy is still flatlining. The people are afraid and want reassurance. Sunday's Fox News interview (transcript) during which he was called out was a mess for him.
Yesterday Trump, who hates masks, tweeted this:
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The tweet has more than 100,000 retweets and nearly 300.000 likes. Trump also announced that he will again hold daily press briefings on the pandemic.
Did he finally get it?
Those leaders who had their countries successfully counter the pandemic, Xi in China, Moon in South Korea, Merkel in Germany, have all profited politically from their countries' performance. Even Boris Johnson who messed up in Britain did not lose much in the polls. He at least seemed to care for his people.
If from now on Trump plays it right the pandemic can still win him the election. He must show empathy. He must let the (selected) experts speak. He should comment as little as possible on the detailed points they make and stick to the generalities.
The daily face time on TV will be great for campaigning but will not be enough to lift him in the polls. For that he needs to show that he cares.
To tell the people that there is no need to fear the pandemic is wrong. He must acknowledge that the people are afraid and he should assure them that they are not alone in it. Only after he has done so can he appeal to them to go back to work, to again send their kids to schools and to behave reasonably by wearing a mask and by keeping social distance.
Is Trump capable of doing this?
I have my doubts about that.