New data supports last week's Moon of Alabama assertion that nearly all recently reported incidents in Iran were just normal accidents.
Lots of 'western' media speculated about the number of explosions and fires in Iran.
- Fire At Power Station, Gas Leak At Petrochemical Plant Are Latest Incidents At Iranian Facilities – RFE/RL July 3
- Iran blasts: What is behind mysterious fires at key sites? – BBC July 6
- Why Do Things Keep Blowing Up in Iran? – Slate July 7
- Are the U.S. and Israel behind recent explosions in Iran? – CBSnews July 14
- Iran's Bushehr Port Fire Sets 7 Ships Ablaze After String of Recent Explosions – Newsweek July 15
- Burning Ships in Iran Add to String of Dozens of Explosions and Fires – New York Times July 15
- Mysterious incidents in Iran continue as at least 7 boats catch on fire at shipyard – Foxnews July 16
- Why Are Mysterious Fires Still Burning in Iran? – Foreign Policy July 16
- What’s behind the wave of mysterious incidents in Iran? – MEI July 16
- Blast Reported at Power Plant in Central Iran, Latest in String of Incidents – Haaretz July 19
- Fire engulfs factory in Iran’s 2nd industrial incident within hours – Times of Israel July 19
The seeming series of incidents led to some rather mediocre analysis butt fingering:
The Undeclared War Against Iran – National Interest July 15
A series of violent attacks, involving explosions and fires, has been hitting Iran. The incidents have been too frequent and intense to be random accidents. They are part of an organized effort.
No, they are not.
As we explained only one of the recent incidents in Iran, an explosion and fire at a centrifuge assembly plant in Natanz, was an organized effort most likely caused by a CIA operation.
All other incidents were just normal accidents:
While the incident in Natanz certainly smells of active sabotage the other incidents, like a recent explosion of gas cylinders at a hospital, look more like plain old accidents.
Someone is amplifying a number of rather normal accidents that occur in any large industrialized country in an attempt to sow fear and uncertainty in Iran.
From Tehran, Professor Marandi lauded our effort:
Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi – 10:41 UTC · Jul 16, 2020
A very good article about the so called mysterious fires & explosions in Iran.
This is all psychological warfare.
All large countries experience such incidents, but Iran's adversaries are attempting to create fear.
Natanz was different. It was an American led act of sabotage.
Our analysis was based on the character of those incidents. Iran's infrastructure is not in the best possible shape. Exploding transformer and rupturing gas valves during a hot summer are simply not unusual.
Other people have come to the same conclusion:
raz zimmt @RZimmt – 9:16 UTC · Jul 12, 2020
A quick examination of gas explosions, which hit Iran only in July-Aug 2019, shows that it is inevitable that at least some of the recent incidents were probably related to problems of neglected infrastructure or mismanagement. …
There is now hard data to back up those assertions:
Tiziana Corda @tizianacorda – 12:12 UTC · Jul 20, 2020
On the recent explosions in Iran, from a comparative perspective.
Building on @RZimmt’s research, I dug into IRNA's archives to collect data on major fires and gas explosions which hit Iran in mid May/end July *one year ago* (2019) (data and methodology: medium.com/@tiz./data-explorer-3421c09d3a93)
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It seems that 2020 is a rather quiet year for Iranian fire brigades. Corda summarizes her findings:
Comparing 2020 with 2019, the only major difference lies in explosions at military or nuclear centres. Those hitting Natanz and Khojir some weeks ago were indeed worth investigating. But, apart from those, it would make little sense for the international media to continue covering obsessively every ordinary explosion taking place in the country, wouldn’t it?
The explosion near Khojjr was at an industrial plant which allegedly manufactures missiles. But it was caused by a defective gas tank which was offset from the production hall. Iranian state TV had a report from that site which showed the ruptured gas tank and the damaged roof that had covered it. There are scorch marks from the fire that followed the explosion.
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A satellite view of the facility shows no damage to the main manufacturing hall. A sabotage attempt would have been aimed at that.
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The incident near Khojjr was most likely a normal industrial accident. Of all the recent incidents in Iran only the explosion at the Natanz site can not be characterized as an industrial accident. The assembly of centrifuges does not require any explosives or other hazardous materials at the site. Whatever blew up there must have been smuggled in.
But even that explosion has done only little to hinder Iran's nuclear developments. New centrifuges will now be assembled elsewhere and the security will be beefed up. In six months Iran's program will be back at where it was three weeks ago.
The 'western' media campaign about incidents in Iran is not impressing the people who live there. They have fun with pointing to a series of unexplained incident in 'western' countries:
Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi – 20:15 UTC · Jul 17, 2020
Iranians ridiculing western narratives on Iran:
There have been a series of "mysterious" explosions in the US
These "suspicious" incidents have happened at an Indiana steel mill & in a US warship among other places
Still the "regime" is trying to maintain a sense of normality