A fast test for SARS-CoV-2 infections is urgently needed. One is now is coming to the market:
The name "antigen test" is a bit confusing. These tests look for fragments of proteins that are found on or within the virus. In this case the sample is taken via a nasal swab. Other such tests will soon work with saliva on a mouth swab. That these test use an antigen to the protein is a technicality and not really relevant.
These kind of tests are comparable to quick pregnancy test. They are for use at home or at points of care for quick screening. The usual turn around time for such tests is some 15 minutes and they do not require special equipment.
Today we use RT-PCR tests which require special preparations and expensive laboratory equipment. PCR tests are very specific and have a high sensitivity which means they show only very few SARS-CoV-2 positive people as negative. Antigen tests are less sensitive. Some low percentage of people who have the virus will have a negative antigen test.
But the advantage of the antigen tests is their simplicity, speed and the mass production costs of about one dollar. They can be integrated into normal life processes like international travel without causing long delays. That the tests have some false negatives does not matter much. Epidemiological modeling shows that when often used these are superior to other methods of epidemic surveillance:
Given the pattern of viral load kinetics, we model surveillance effectiveness considering test sensitivities, frequency, and sample-to-answer reporting time. These results demonstrate that effective surveillance, including time to first detection and outbreak control, depends largely on frequency of testing and the speed of reporting, and is only marginally improved by high test sensitivity. We therefore conclude that surveillance should prioritize accessibility, frequency, and sample-to-answer time; analytical limits of detection should be secondary.
Many of these kind of tests will soon come to the market. They will be very helpful to get outbreaks under control.
Here in Germany the usual turn-around time from taking a sample for a PCR test to the communication of the result to the tested person is some 24 hours. In the U.S. the PCR testing is disorganized which is a major reason why the country is unable to bring its outbreaks under control:
Some testing sites are struggling to provide results in five to seven days. Others are taking even longer. Outbreaks across the Sun Belt have strained labs beyond capacity. That rising demand, in turn, has caused shortages of swabs, chemical reagents and equipment as far away as New York.
The long testing turnaround times are making it impossible for the United States to replicate the central strategy used by other countries to effectively contain the virus — test, trace and isolate.
A PCR tests costs about $150. Antigen tests will likely be available for less than $10.
As antigen and PCR tests look for pieces of the virus they may show someone who has had the virus, is no longer contagious but is still shedding its debris as SARS-CoV-2 positive. An additional serological quick test that looks for antibodies to the virus can separate these cases from those who are newly infected.
Covid-19 may well be here to stay. If that is the case I expect that in future all medical personal, all visitors to care homes, international travelers and anyone entering a hospital or even a medical practice will be required to take an antigen test and, if positive, also a serological test. Combined and used widely these tests can make everyday life for everyone a little safer.
The U.S. has become 'Cootiestan' and only very few countries are now accept visitors from there. The map showing the effect is impressive:
The most reliable projections are saying 200,000 dead and 50 million infected by election day in November. Even these projections struggle to account for completely irrational federal actions like denigrating masks, pushing to reopen early, and pushing students back into schools. This is not the absence of public health, this is its opposite.
It is, in effect, governance by COVID-19. Not a failed state. A plague state.
Combined with Trump's anti-immigration measures this will make studying in the U.S. for students from abroad much less attractive. The National Foundation for American Policy finds:
The enrollment of new international students at U.S. universities in the Fall 2020-21 academic year is projected to decline 63% to 98% from the 2018-19 level, with between 6,000 to 12,000 new international students at the low range, and 87,000 to 100,000 at the high range, according to a National Foundation for American Policy analysis. The decline of as many as 263,000 students from the 2018-19 academic year total of approximately 269,000 new international students would be the lowest level of new international students since after World War II when the numbers started to be tracked. The 12,000 level represents new international students if only new students from Mexico and Canada enrolled. Given uncertainties surrounding even Mexican and Canadian students, the most pessimistic forecast would put the number of new enrolled international students at only half the 12,000 level. The enrollment of new international students was approximately 7,800 in 1948-49, the first year on record.
Foreign students usually pay full tuition for enrolling in U.S. institutions. If those numbers come true the lack of new foreign 'customers' will result in a huge budget hit for U.S. universities.
This is just one of many severe consequences that the runaway epidemic in the U.S. will have.
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Some covidiots have claimed that "Lockdowns kill people!"
Well…
Thomas Hegghammer @Hegghammer – 20:05 UTC · 12 Jul 2020
Norwegian undertakers request economic assistance from the government because the Coronavirus lockdown led to a _decline_ in deaths: Færre dør – krise for begravelsesbyrå
Norway acted timely. Its Covid-19 peak of new cases was about 270 per day (7 day average) and the total deaths were some 250. The country has reopened and it now has under 10 new cases per day. The lockdown did not only prevent an out of control epidemic situation, it also stopped accidents from happening. Less stress led to fewer other incidents like heart attacks. In total the number of deaths declined!
