News & views …

In 2019 the U.S. was ranked as the country best prepared for a pandemic. This year it is again at the top. As the Wall Street Journal headlines:

U.S. Leads the Globe as Coronavirus Deaths Pass 150,000, Hospitalizations Rise

The Washington Post adds another highlight:

U.S. reports 1,400 coronavirus deaths in a day — about one per minute

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The number of new cases in U.S. have somewhat peaked for now as the sunbelt states have taken some measures to decrease new infections. But I am afraid that the trend down will (again) be very slow and that we will see another rise as some other states – Ohio, Tennessee, Indiana and Kentucky – show upticks in new infections. They may be the next ones who will get into trouble. The curve of new deaths from Covid-19 follows the new cases curve by three to four weeks. Deaths will probably peak at the end of August.

The economic damage the pandemic has caused in the U.S. is extreme:

The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized 32.9% rate in the second quarter — the worst-ever contraction on records that date back to 1947, the government said on Thursday.
…
The staggering contraction beats the last record set in 1958, when GDP shrank at an annualized 10% rate.

Interestingly the contraction in 1958 was a direct result of the 1957/58 H2N2 influenza pandemic.

Globally the situations is mixed. South-east Asia seems to have the problem under control. India is a mess. South America has huge problems. Western European countries seem mostly okay for now but I expect another big rise there as people are beginning to lose discipline. East Europe looks bleak. There is little reliable dataavailable for the Middle East and Africa.

Over the last six month scientists and doctors have learned a lot about the virus and the diseases it causes. I use the plural here as the virus is causing so many different troubles that it is hard to see them as one malady.

A number of professors at the UCSF have written a very good piece which describes all the different effects they see in their patients:

We Thought It Was Just a Respiratory Virus – We were wrong.

Cont. reading: Covid-19 Update – Heart Damage And Aerosols

In another round of their anti-Russian disinformation campaign 'U.S. government officials' claim that some websites loosely connected to Russia are spreading 'virus disinformation'.

However, no 'virus disinformation' can be found on those sites.

The Associated Press as well as the New York Times were briefed by the 'officials' and provided write ups.

AP: US officials: Russia behind spread of virus disinformation

Two Russians who have held senior roles in Moscow’s military intelligence service known as the GRU have been identified as responsible for a disinformation effort meant to reach American and Western audiences, U.S. government officials said. They spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

The information had previously been classified, but officials said it had been downgraded so they could more freely discuss it. Officials said they were doing so now to sound the alarm about the particular websites and to expose what they say is a clear link between the sites and Russian intelligence.

Between late May and early July, one of the officials said, the websites singled out Tuesday published about 150 articles about the pandemic response, including coverage aimed either at propping up Russia or denigrating the U.S.

Among the headlines that caught the attention of U.S. officials were “Russia’s Counter COVID-19 Aid to America Advances Case for Détente,” which suggested that Russia had given urgent and substantial aid to the U.S. to fight the pandemic, and “Beijing Believes COVID-19 is a Biological Weapon,” which amplified statements by the Chinese.

The first mentioned piece, Russia's Counter-COVID Aid To America Advances The Case For A New Detente, is by the well known author Andrew Korybko,  a U.S. political analyst living in Moscow. It was published at OneWorld.press. The essay discussed the Russian Coronavirus aid flown in early April from Russia to the U.S. The analyst concludes that such aid can be seen as the beginning of a new détente between the U.S. and Russia.

There is zero 'virus disinformation' in the Korybko piece. The aid flight did happen and was widely reported. In a response to the allegations the proprietors of OneWorld point out that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a recent Q&A also alluded to a new détente with Russia. Was that also 'virus disinformation'?

Cont. reading: U.S. Officials Disseminate Disinformation About ‘Virus Disinformation’

The Israeli government under Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahoo faces two crises. Hizbullah, the Lebanese resistance organization, has announced that it will take revenge for one of its soldiers Israel killed.  A botched handling of the Covid-19 epidemic by the government has come under much criticism. Together with the criminal proceedings against Netanyahoo any of the above could lead to his fall.

Yesterday Israel claimed that Hizbollah soldiers had crossed its northern border but were pushed back:

Israeli forces on Monday exchanged fire with Hezbollah militants along the volatile Israeli-Lebanese frontier, as Israeli civilians living in the area were ordered to remain indoors amid the heaviest fighting between the bitter enemies in nearly a year.

The fighting occurred in an area known as Chebaa Farms, which was captured by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war and is claimed by Lebanon. Residents of southern Lebanon near the border reported Israeli shelling that continued for more than an hour.

The fighting came as Israel was on heightened alert for a possible attack by Hezbollah, after an Israeli airstrike in Syria killed a Hezbollah militant last week. Israel has carried out dozens of airstrikes in Syria in recent years, targeting what it says are Iranian weapons shipments bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah had promised that his organization would take revenge for each of its soldiers killed in Israeli attacks in Syria. Knowing that some hit will come the Israeli army was put on high alert and additional forces were moved towards the border area

But the long nervous guarding of the border while waiting for Hizbullah's hit must have induced some hallucinations. There was no Hizbullah there:

Hezbollah said its fighters were not involved in any fighting along the border with Israel.

In a statement following the clashes, the group said all claims by Israeli media about an infiltration attempt by Hezbollah into Israel "are not true at all, and are attempts to invent illusive victories."

Hezbollah said the group's retaliation for its member killed by an Israeli strike in Syria "is definitely coming, and the Zionists should remain waiting for the punishment for their crimes."

The Israeli army claims it has footage of the incident:

Israeli defense officials scoffed at the terror group’s denial, saying the infiltration attempt had been filmed by military security cameras and that the operatives who took part in it were armed. The Israel Defense Forces said it was considering releasing the footage from the incident.

But a day after the incident no footage has been released. The Israeli press is suspicious about the army's claim:

Cont. reading: The Epidemic And Hizbullah Add To Netanyahoo’s Problems

by Passer by

In response to several comments in the last open thread (slightly edited).

Actually there is even some real, and not only relative, decline for the US, for example US life expectancy is dropping. This is a pretty bad sign for a developed country. Same for the UK by the way.

On the issue of China gaining during the Covid crisis, they gained in raw power, for example gained in GDP relatively to the US. And they gained in debt levels too, relatively, as US debt levels exploded due to the crisis. Now you have V-shaped recovery in China and poor, W-shaped double dip recovery in the US. With far more debt added.

Of course there is the issue of public relations and soft power. On the one hand the US blamed China for the pandemic, but on the other hand it embarrassed itself due to its poor performance in containing the pandemic, compared to other countries. And the US lost points around the world due to rejecting WHO right in the middle of the pandemic. Europe and developing countries did not like that at all. Don't forget that Covid also weakened the US military, they have problems with it, including on ships and overseas bases, and even broke the biggest US exercise planned in Europe for the last 30 years. And the pandemic in the US is still raging, its not fixed at all and death rates are increasing again.

Here for example, the futurologists from Pardee Canter that that China gained during the crisis, in raw capabilities. Future research and relative power between countries is their specialty:

Research Associate Collin Meisel and Pardee Center Director Jonathan Moyer use IFs (International Futures) to explore the long-term impact of COVID-19 in China in this Duck Of Minerva blog post" "Where broad measures of material capabilities are concerned, the picture is clear: COVID-19 is closing the gap in relative capabilities for the U.S. and China and accelerating the U.S.-China transition. Through multiple long-term forecast scenarios using the International Futures tool, Research Associate Collin Meisel and Pardee Center Director Jonathan Moyer explain on the Duck of Minerva blog that China is likely to gain approximately one percent of global power relative to the U.S. by 2030 due to the economic and mortality impacts of COVID-19. This share of global power is similar to the relative capabilities of Turkey today.

On the issue of the USD, Stephen Roach also says that there will be a significant decline in the medium term. And the argument is pretty logical – if the US share in the global economy is declining (and it will be declining at least up to year 2060), and if the level of US debts is reaching all time high levels, then the USD will decline. I agree with that argument. It is fully logical.

On the chip/semiconductor issue. David Goldman is skeptical that the US will be able to stop China on this:

The chip ban gives the world an enormous incentive to circumvent the US

Cont. reading: A Significant Decline Is Coming For The U.S.

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

• July 20 – Industrial Accidents In Iran Are Just That
  Realted:
  Iran protests to UN after US jets approach flight over Syria – AFP
  Top Iranian official: US has decided to kill Hezbollah chief Nasrallah – Israel Hayom

• July 21 – Is Trump Finally Getting It?

• July 22 – U.S. Claims Diplomatic Immunity For Covid-19 – Shuts Down Chinese Consulate
• July 24 – U.S. – China Spat Over Quarantine And Consulates Continues
  Related:
  Men seen forcing open backdoor of China's Houston consulate after closure
• July 22 – U.S. Asks China To Make More Nuclear Weapons
  Related:
  Officials Push U.S.-China Relations Toward Point of No Return – NYT
  Whose century? – Adam Tooze / LRB (long read)
  

—
Other Issues:

U.S. Civil War of 2020:

Near and Present Anarchy – Susan Zahkin / The Baffler (long read)
Buildings damaged in Minneapolis, St. Paul after riots – Star Tribune
Meet the Youth Liberation Front behind a militant marathon of Portland protests – Seattle Times

Boeing 737:

Boeing 737 Max Ungrounding Pushed Back Again; WSJ Sources Say Early 2021 – Naked Capitalism
Southwest says slowed delivery of Boeing 737 MAXs could slip more – Seattle Times
FAA warns engine on Boeing 737 jets could shut down mid-flight, issues emergency order directing airlines to inspect, replace critical part – Chicago Tribune
Boeing to delay 777X as demand drops for big jets: Sources – Channel New Asia

Use as open thread …

"We’ve called on China to conform its nuclear capabilities to the strategic realities of our time."
Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State, July 23 2020

Source: FAS.org – bigger

The U.S. closed down the Chinese consulate in Houston in revenge for Chinese demands that diplomats coming from abroad to China undergo Covid-19 testing and quarantine. No U.S. media I have read has yet confirmed that fact which Moon of Alabama was first to report:

The unmentioned reason for the State Department's move is a squabble over virus testing and quarantining of U.S. diplomats who are supposed to return to China.
…
The squabble continues. The U.S. diplomats have not returned and the consulate in Wuhan has still not reopened. The U.S. order to close the Chinese consulate in Houston is obviously an attempt to press China into lifting its testing and quarantine demands for U.S. diplomats.

The Global Times, China's flagship English language media, has asked two experts. Both confirmed our reporting:

Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University:

According to my understanding, it is a move to pressure Beijing to get more US diplomats back to their posts in China. Since the outbreak of the COVID-19, the US had hurriedly evacuated quite a number of American diplomats and citizens from China. Now Washington believes it is time for them to continue their China mission. Yet negotiations on their return did not go quite smoothly. …

Wei Zongyou, a professor at the Center for American Studies, Fudan University

It has been quite some time that China and the US have remained locked in negotiations over conditions for the return to China of US diplomats and their family members. The harsh requirement for the closing of the Chinese Consulate General in Houston can be regarded as the US retaliation over this dispute. …

The U.S. media still behave as if they have not noticed the unreasonable demand of Cootiestan's State Department. China would risk another Covid-19 outbreak if it were to exempt newly arriving diplomats from testing and quarantine.

China responded to the U.S. order to close its consulate in Houston with a mirror order to shut down the U.S. consulate in Chengdu. But notice how different the purposes of those outlets gets described:

As the United States lashed out against the “new tyranny” of China, Beijing on Friday ordered the closure of the American consulate in Chengdu, a retaliatory move that threatens to drive the two powers into an even deeper divide.

Beijing blamed the Trump administration for the deterioration in relations, calling its own action justified after Washington told China this week to shutter its consulate in Houston and accused its diplomats of acting illegally.
…
[T]he Trump administration has said the closure of the Houston consulate was necessary because it had become a hub of illegal spying and influence operations, allegations that Chinese officials have denied.
…
[T]he closure of the consulate in Chengdu, in Sichuan Province, the westernmost of the five American consulates in mainland China, deprives the United States in a city that is a hub for China’s commercial expansion across Central Asia. Chengdu is also its most valuable diplomatic outpost for gathering information on Xinjiang and Tibet, the two sometimes-restive regions in China’s far west.

Both regions have been the locations for wide-ranging security crackdowns that have drawn international criticism as abuses of human rights.

The Chinese consulate in Houston is accused, without any evidence, of being a "hub of illegal spying and influence operations". The U.S. consulate in Chengdu is, according to the New York Times, involved in "gathering information on Xinjiang and Tibet" and also used for the fake "human rights" campaigns against China – i.e. CIA information operations. Why is the chosen depiction so different?

As U.S. has many more diplomats in China than China has in the U.S. We can therefore be sure that the U.S. has more agents doing their nefarious stuff in China than Chinese agents are doing in Washington, Houston and elsewhere.

Some U.S. diplomats who had evacuated in January and February are now returning to China:

Washington and Beijing have been negotiating for weeks over the terms of how to send U.S. diplomats back amid disagreement over COVID-19 testing and quarantine procedures, as well as frequency of flights and how many each can carry.

There is no word yet how the testing and quarantining of these diplomats will be handled. I find it likely that China has stuck to its demands and that the U.S. conceded on the issue. That would of course be another issue the media would not want you to know.

News & views …

On Tuesday the U.S. government ordered the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas. The move comes amongst a slew of factless accusations of Chinese hacking and surveillance.

While Trump, like Biden, is using anti-China propaganda as part of his campaign, the closure of the Houston consulate has nothing to do with it. But U.S. media fail to mention the real and unreasonable motive behind this move:

The United States ordered China to close its diplomatic consulate in Houston within 72 hours, dealing another blow to the rapidly deteriorating relations between the two countries. China promptly vowed to retaliate, calling the move illegal.

The State Department said the closure was made in response to repeated Chinese violations of American sovereignty, including “massive illegal spying and influence operations.”

The unmentioned reason for the State Department's move is a squabble over virus testing and quarantining of U.S. diplomats who are supposed to return to China.

In January, when the first outbreak of Covid-19 happened in the Chinese city of Wuhan the U.S. evacuated its consulate in the city. In total some 1,300 diplomats and their family members were moved out of China in January and February.

In June, after China had defeated the outbreak, the U.S. announced that that it diplomats would return:

U.S. ambassador to China, Terry Branstad, “intends to resume operations in Wuhan in the near future”, Frank Whitaker, minister counselor for Public Affairs at the embassy, said in an email to Reuters, without giving a specific date.

But by then the U.S. had become Cootiestan while China had defeated the virus. Chinese public health officials insisted on testing and quarantining everyone who entered from the U.S. to protect their country from another outbreak.

The State Department however rejected that:

Cont. reading: U.S. Claims Diplomatic Immunity For Covid-19 – Shuts Down Chinese Consulate

U.S. President Donald Trump has finally recognized that his reelection is in danger. The most obvious cause for that is the pandemic which  is spreading uncontrolled throughout the United States.

When the pandemic broke out in Wuhan, China, the U.S. did not take it seriously. The reporting in most main stream outlet was concentrated on maligning China. No danger for the U.S. was anticipated.

A small early outbreak in Washington state was soon brought under control. Trump thought that the pandemic was not going to touch him. It was – in his view – like Russiagate and Ukrainegate just another fake scare that the Democrats were using against him.

Then Italy was hit as well as other European countries. That was a bit of a warning but still not serious enough to take countermeasures. Then came New York and finally it dawned on everyone that the U.S. was unprepared.

Trump recognized that he had to do something. A chaotic White House started to buy up everything – masks, ventilators, drugs – that would be possibly needed. A nationwide lockdown was implemented. The stock market crashed but Trump threatened the Fed until it saved the markets and his bacon. Every day he held widely noted press conference about the pandemic and his 'wonderful' response to it.

The casualties in New York turned out to mostly black lower class people. Only few in Trump's social circles were affected. The numbers in New York came down but the economy still lingered. Against the opinion of every noted specialist Trump declared that the pandemic was over.

He stopped the press conferences and urged that the lockdowns be lifted. There was an election to win and an economy that had to be revived to make that possible.

But the virus had different plans. Trump's June campaign event in Tulsa, Oklahoma, was a flop. Too few people attended. Especially the elder people who usually attended such events stayed away. At the beginning of July Trump stopped live campaigning. Then came the big pandemic waves in states that had voted for Trump. Suddenly it was no longer the black underclass of liberal New York that was dying but the elderly white in Republican states who had voted for Trump.

The mood in the country had turned against him. Trumps poll numbers are down. The economy is still flatlining. The people are afraid and want reassurance. Sunday's Fox News interview (transcript) during which he was called out was a mess for him.

Yesterday Trump, who hates masks, tweeted this:

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The tweet has more than 100,000 retweets and nearly 300.000 likes. Trump also announced that he will again hold daily press briefings on the pandemic.

Did he finally get it?

Those leaders who had their countries successfully counter the pandemic, Xi in China, Moon in South Korea, Merkel in Germany, have all profited politically from their countries' performance. Even Boris Johnson who messed up in Britain did not lose much in the polls. He at least seemed to care for his people.

If from now on Trump plays it right the pandemic can still win him the election. He must show empathy. He must let the (selected) experts speak. He should comment as little as possible on the detailed points they make and stick to the generalities.

The daily face time on TV will be great for campaigning but will not be enough to lift him in the polls. For that he needs to show that he cares.

To tell the people that there is no need to fear the pandemic is wrong. He must acknowledge that the people are afraid and he should assure them that they are not alone in it. Only after he has done so can he appeal to them to go back to work, to again send their kids to schools and to behave reasonably by wearing a mask and by keeping social distance.

Is Trump capable of doing this?

I have my doubts about that.

New data supports last week's Moon of Alabama assertion that nearly all recently reported incidents in Iran were just normal accidents.

Lots of 'western' media speculated about the number of explosions and fires in Iran.

• Fire At Power Station, Gas Leak At Petrochemical Plant Are Latest Incidents At Iranian Facilities – RFE/RL July 3
• Iran blasts: What is behind mysterious fires at key sites? – BBC July 6
• Why Do Things Keep Blowing Up in Iran? – Slate July 7
• Are the U.S. and Israel behind recent explosions in Iran? – CBSnews July 14
• Iran's Bushehr Port Fire Sets 7 Ships Ablaze After String of Recent Explosions – Newsweek July 15
• Burning Ships in Iran Add to String of Dozens of Explosions and Fires – New York Times July 15
• Mysterious incidents in Iran continue as at least 7 boats catch on fire at shipyard – Foxnews July 16
• Why Are Mysterious Fires Still Burning in Iran? – Foreign Policy July 16
• What’s behind the wave of mysterious incidents in Iran? – MEI July 16
• Blast Reported at Power Plant in Central Iran, Latest in String of Incidents – Haaretz July 19
• Fire engulfs factory in Iran’s 2nd industrial incident within hours – Times of Israel July 19

The seeming series of incidents led to some rather mediocre analysis butt fingering:

The Undeclared War Against Iran – National Interest July 15

A series of violent attacks, involving explosions and fires, has been hitting Iran. The incidents have been too frequent and intense to be random accidents. They are part of an organized effort.

No, they are not.

As we explained only one of the recent incidents in Iran, an explosion and fire at a centrifuge assembly plant in Natanz, was an organized effort most likely caused by a CIA operation.

All other incidents were just normal accidents:

While the incident in Natanz certainly smells of active sabotage the other incidents, like a recent explosion of gas cylinders at a hospital, look more like plain old accidents.

Someone is amplifying a number of rather normal accidents that occur in any large industrialized country in an attempt to sow fear and uncertainty in Iran.

From Tehran, Professor Marandi lauded our effort:

Cont. reading: Industrial Accidents In Iran Are Just That

Last week’s posts at Moon of Alabama:

• July 13 – Covid-19 – New Quick Tests Are Coming, Cootiestan, A Lack Of Lockdown Death
  Related:
  

  Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois – 15:40 UTC · Jul 18, 2020
  Many discussions about #COVID19 boil down to wether the virus is ‘just like the flu’ or ‘nothing like the flu’. As such, I felt it may be useful to provide a comparison of some of the major epidemiological features of the two viruses. (1/13) …

• July 14 – Syria – Attacks On Turkish-Russian Patrols Endanger Ceasefire
  Related:
  Dutch accountant uncovers fraud behind Syria rescue organization White Helmets: report – NL-Times
  White Helmets co-founder stole aid money destined for Syria – report – RT
  De zwarte bladzijde van de Witte Helmen – Volkskrant
  Dutch Court Documents in Case against Mayday Rescue Foundation – rechtspraak.nl
  James Le Mesurier: a reconstruction of his business activities and covert role – syriapropagandamedia.org

• July 15 – Trump Authorized CIA To Wage Cyberwar On Iran And Others
  Related:
  Iranian Hackers Accidentally Exposed Their Training Videos (40 GB) Online – Hackernews
  Prof. Mohammad Marandi agrees with my take:
  Israeli sabotage in Iran? Iranian professor brings update on Middle East & North Africa – (vid) – Anya Parampil/Grayzone

• July 16 – Mask Mandates? Businesses Say Yes. Some Governors Still Say No.
• July 17 – Georgia’s Gov. Kemp Faked The Numbers, Fights Mask Mandates And Hurts Its Economy
  Related:
  

  Georgia Person @andishehnouraee – 21:24 UTC · Jul 17, 2020
  In just 15 days the total number of #COVID19 cases in Georgia is up 49%, but you wouldn’t know it from looking at the state’s data visualization map of cases. The first map is July 2. The second is today. Do you see a 50% case increase? Can you spot how they’re hiding it? 1/
  

Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – Open Thread 2020-57

On July 7 Harpers published a letter which condemned the 'cancel culture'. In the 'cancel culture' online masses seek to censor controversial speakers with whom they do not agree. Some 150 prominent writers and academics had signed the A Letter on Justice and Open Debate:

The forces of illiberalism are gaining strength throughout the world and have a powerful ally in Donald Trump, who represents a real threat to democracy. But resistance must not be allowed to harden into its own brand of dogma or coercion—which right-wing demagogues are already exploiting. The democratic inclusion we want can be achieved only if we speak out against the intolerant climate that has set in on all sides.
…

Said shorter: "Don't cancel the Fascist but, more importantly, DON'T CANCEL US!"

The people who signed the letter, all in influential positions, seemed more concerned with being criticized themselves for the nonsense they write.

Next to Noam Chomsky there were quite a lot of warmongers and false 'liberuls' amongst the names, for example David Frum and J.K. Rowling. These are people who are themselves prone to practice 'cancel culture' when they disagree with others.

Counter letters were written and published:

The signatories, many of them white, wealthy, and endowed with massive platforms, argue that they are afraid of being silenced, that so-called cancel culture is out of control, and that they fear for their jobs and free exchange of ideas, even as they speak from one of the most prestigious magazines in the country.
…
[T]he irony of the piece is that nowhere in it do the signatories mention how marginalized voices have been silenced for generations in journalism, academia, and publishing.

That the original letter and its signers can not be taken seriously was emphatically proven with this:

Jeremy Repanich @racefortheprize – 23:14 UTC · Jul 17, 2020

LOL. Thomas Chatterton Williams, who wrote the Harper's letter, admitted today that Glenn Greenwald was kept off the letter b/c other signees didn't like his views.

The signers of the letter against the 'cancel culture' had cancelled Glenn Greenwald from signing it.

I am not sure who should be more embarrassed about this – Greenwald or the other signers.

Yesterday I asked about Georgia's governor Brian Kemp:

What does Kemp think will happen in Georgia? Does he wish for more deaths in his state? Is it malice that is driving him? If not malice what is it?

The question is still open and there is now more data to find an answer.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp Sues Atlanta to Block City From Enforcing Its Mask Mandate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp is suing Atlanta to block the city from enforcing its mandate to wear a mask in public and other rules related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Kemp and Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr, in a suit filed in state court late Thursday in Atlanta, argue that Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms has overstepped her authority and must obey Kemp’s executive orders under state law.

“Governor Kemp must be allowed, as the chief executive of this state, to manage the public health emergency without Mayor Bottoms issuing void and unenforceable orders which only serve to confuse the public,” the lawsuit states.

Kemp on Wednesday clarified his executive orders to expressly block Atlanta and at least 14 other local governments across the state from requiring people to wear face coverings.

This is irresponsible. It is not Atlanta Mayor Lance Bottoms who is confusing the public. It is Kemp who is doing it. We do not just ask people to put on seat belts, we mandate it.

It was also Kemp who decided to put out fake numbers:

Georgia Massaged Virus Data to Reopen, Then Voided Mask Orders

Among the last U.S. states to lock down, Georgia in April was first to widely reopen, after just three weeks. Critics said the state misrepresented its data to justify the move, and they predicted disaster.
…
[T]he same week Kemp ordered the reopening, his administration began presenting data in a way that made the state appear healthier than it was, said Thomas Tsai, a professor at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

The technique involved backdating new cases to the time of first symptoms or taking a test, instead of reporting them as they were reported to the state, like Georgia had previously done — and like most states do.
…
The effect — as states were being told to predicate their reopenings on two weeks of declining case numbers — was to artificially make Georgia’s trends look better. The state began adding new cases to past dates on its trend line, making current numbers both too low and incomplete, Tsai said.

“What’s deceptive is that they shave off the most recent two weeks,” he said. “If you look at the most recent two weeks, it’s always very low. It always looks artificially like a downward trend.”

Looking again at Georgia's data we can tell the moment Georgia did this.

Cont. reading: Georgia’s Gov. Kemp Faked The Numbers, Fights Mask Mandates And Hurts Its Economy

This sad joke is making the rounds:

Q: What borders on stupidity?
A: Canada and Mexico.

Unfortunately there is some truth to it.

Gov. Greg Abbott says Harris County can't impose fine over face mask order – April 27 2020

Gov. Greg Abbott said Monday that local officials cannot impose penalties on residents who violate rules about wearing masks in public — including those in Harris County, where county Judge Lina Hidalgo’s mask order went into effect that morning.

“We strongly recommend that everyone wear a mask,” Abbott said at a press conference where he announced his plans for reopening Texas. “However, it's not a mandate. And we make clear that no jurisdiction can impose any type of penalty or fine.

“My executive order, it supersedes local orders, with regard to any type of fine or penalty for anyone not wearing a mask,” he added.

Some three months later sanity had set in:

Cont. reading: Mask Mandates? Businesses Say Yes. Some Governors Still Say No.

News & views …

Recently there have been a number of incidents in Iran where unexplained fires or explosion have destroyed some infrastructure:

Since June, fires or explosions have erupted at six factories and other facilities, two of them military in nature—the Parchin missile-production plant and the Natanz nuclear site.

There was an explosion of a gas tank near a missile assembly facility in Khojir, some trouble at a transformer station near Tehran and some other incidents. Most remarkably was an explosion and fire at the centrifuge assembly facility in Iran's nuclear complex in Natanz.

While the incident in Natanz certainly smells of active sabotage the other incidents, like a recent explosion of gas cylinders at a hospital, look more like plain old accidents.

Someone is amplifying a number of rather normal accidents that occur in any large industrialized country in an attempt to sow fear and uncertainty in Iran.

Today a fire broke out on a shipyard in Bushehr. Some Twitterati immediately speculated that it was part of the incident chain and related it to Iran's nuclear reactor near that city.

Such speculation is nonsense. Fires on shipyards break out all the time. Just ask the U.S. Navy who's USS Bonhomme Richard has now been burning for three days after a fire broke out during yard maintenance. That fire turned a one billion dollar ship into 40,000 tons of feedstock for a blast furnace. Today's yard fire in Iran slightly damaged seven laid up dhows (vid), small civilian freight ships build from wood and used for coastal traffic in the Persian Gulf.

Israel has indirectly claimed responsibility for the Natanz incident:

[A] Middle Eastern intelligence official with knowledge of the episode said Israel was responsible for the attack on the Natanz nuclear complex, using a powerful bomb. A member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps who was briefed on the matter also said that an explosive was used.

I have my doubts about such self serving Israeli claims. It is more likely that the CIA has its fingers in these games.

There is a rather intense CIA program being run against Iran. Trump has not only appointed the aggressive Michael D'Andrea, the 'Prince of Darkness', to head the CIA's Iran Mission Center but he gave the CIA wide ranging new powers to run cyber attacks against the country:

Cont. reading: Trump Authorized CIA To Wage Cyberwar On Iran And Others

The Syrian province of Idleb continues to be a hotbed for Jihadis. Since the last Turkish Russian ceasefire agreement the Turkish army deployed more and more troops in Idleb to bring the various Jihadis it unofficially supports under control.

The main Jihadi group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has now taken the role of a Turkish proxy force. All other groups were told to submit to it and after a few rounds of infighting during which dozens were killed most of them did do so.

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One condition for the ceasefire was the re-opening of the M4 highway which connects Latakia with Aleppo. Common Turkish Russian patrols were established to control security on the road. If the re-opening does not happened the Syrian and Russian forces will attack to gain control over at least the southern part of the Jihadi held (green) area to regain full control of the economically important road.

HTS and other 'rebels' arranged 'protests' against the first patrols and tried to prevent them. After a few minor incidents Turkey told them to stop it. It is not interested in another round of fighting against the Russian supported Syrian side.

But the trouble continues. Earlier today some Jihadi attacked a common Turkish Russian patrol along the M4 highway east of the town Arihah. (Google map)

The suicide attack was by an explosive filled car which had been hidden in a garage right next to the M4. An armored Russian vehicle was thrown off the road and a Turkish mine protected vehicle was damaged. Three Russian soldiers were injured as were several Turkish ones.

A group of Chechen Jihadis, Khattab al-Shishani, claimed responsibility for the attack:

Our Knight attacked the negotiations table, to sign it with his blood, fire, steel and blazing heat.

The group published pictures of the incident.

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There is also a video of the attack.

The same group had claimed a similar incident about a month ago. But it is doubtful that such a Chechen group exists at all. The Chechen Jihadis in Syria are not known for suicide bombings. They are mercenaries who train other groups and fight for money. It is more likely that some disgruntled folks from HTS or some other Jihadi outfit are trying to undermine the Turkish role in Idleb and the Turkish-Russian ceasefire agreement.

The Russian military responded to the attack with airstrikes on local headquarters of HTS in Benin and Jabal Al-Zawiya.

The Turkish Defense Ministry issued a statement:

The 21st Turkey-Russia Joint Patrol was targeted by terrorists with a car bomb to disrupt efforts to ensure an environment of peace and trust in Idlib. Two vehicles in the convoy were partially damaged. There was no loss of life. United Patrol Activities carried out within the framework of TR-RF Consensus will continue by taking all necessary measures.

That the Turkish statement speaks of a 'terrorist' attack is interesting. Turkey had always claimed that the Jihadis in Idleb are solely 'moderate rebels' who fight to 'liberate Syria'. That Turkey announced the continuation of the patrols shows that it currently has no interest in any escalation.

But a new escalation will come. Despite all other difficulties caused by sanctions, the pandemic and the economic consequences of Lebanon's bankruptcy Syria and its allies are committed to regain control over Idleb province.

It is Russia that is currently holding them back. But should another attack on a Russian patrol cause serious casualties that restraint is likely to vanish. 

A fast test for SARS-CoV-2 infections is urgently needed. One is now is coming to the market:

FDA Authorizes First Antigen Test to Help in the Rapid Detection of the Virus that Causes COVID-19 in Patients

The name "antigen test" is a bit confusing. These tests look for fragments of proteins that are found on or within the virus. In this case the sample is taken via a nasal swab. Other such tests will soon work with saliva on a mouth swab. That these test use an antigen to the protein is a technicality and not really relevant.

These kind of tests are comparable to quick pregnancy test. They are for use at home or at points of care for quick screening. The usual turn around time for such tests is some 15 minutes and they do not require special equipment.

Today we use RT-PCR tests which require special preparations and expensive laboratory equipment. PCR tests are very specific and have a high sensitivity which means they show only very few SARS-CoV-2 positive people as negative. Antigen tests are less sensitive. Some low percentage of people who have the virus will have a negative antigen test.

But the advantage of the antigen tests is their simplicity, speed and the mass production costs of about one dollar. They can be integrated into normal life processes like international travel without causing long delays. That the tests have some false negatives does not matter much. Epidemiological modeling shows that when often used these are superior to other methods of epidemic surveillance:

Cont. reading: Covid-19 – New Quick Tests Are Coming, Cootiestan, A Lack Of Lockdown Death