Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 16, 2020

Belarus - A U.S. Sponsored Color Revolution Is Underway

U.S engineered attempts to overthrow a foreign government by stirring civil unrest are usually named after a color or, at times, a flower. Thus we had an "rose revolution" in Georgia, a "green movement" in Iran and an "orange revolution" in the Ukraine.

But now the CIA and its assortment of supporting organizations seems to have run out of color choices. How else can one explain that their latest attempt in Belarus is called a "slipper revolution"?


No, the Guardian, which published the 'Slipper  revolution' headline today but later changed it, did not come up with that stupid moniker by itself.

The U.S. State Department funded TV station was the first to mention slippers in a picture caption on May 31.


On June 6 the U.S. government funded RFE/RL was the first to use it in a headline.


Yesterday the U.S. government and NATO funded Atlantic Council mentioned slippers in a Belarus piece. The Washington DC based and funded Center for European Policy Analysis avoided the 'slippers' but its yesterday published piece on Belarus covers the same ground.

When these western government funded organizations and media come up with explainer pieces about one not yet westernized country at the very same time one can be sure that something is up. Someone has obviously briefed these folks.

So what is up with Belarus?

The country has an interesting geographic position squeezed between NATO aligned countries and Russia.


With some 9.5 million inhabitants Belarus is rather small. Since 1994 it is ruled by President Alexander Lukashenko. He has stuck to Soviet-era policies. The country has a well developed industry that mainly exports heavy machinery. Large parts of the economy are still state owned and support the local towns and cities. The country thereby avoided the economic catastrophe that happened in Russia under Boris Yelzin but it also missed out on the economic development that happened in Russia after President Vladimir Putin took over.

Since 1995 Russia and Belarus have an agreement to form a Union State:

The Union State does provide citizens of Russia and Belarus the right to work and permanently settle in either country without formal immigration procedures otherwise mandatory for foreign nationals. They retain their national passports and other identification papers.

The treaty, signed in 1999, also includes a common defense and economic integration as well as a Union parliament and other institutions. It is essentially aimed at integrating Belarus (and other former Soviet Union states) with Russia. But within a full fledged Union State Lukashenko's personal role would be largely diminished. He has dragged his feet whenever Russia made attempts to push for further steps towards it.

Russia has subsidized the price of natural gas and crude oil it delivers to Belarus. The oil is only partly used within the country itself. Belarus refines it and sells the resulting products for hard currencies into western markets. The subsidized oil was until recently the 'integration rent' paid by Russia to keep Belarus near to its side.

In late 2019 Lukashenko and Putin met for a summit in Sochi. Putin again pressed for more progress towards forming the Union State while Lukashenko continued to drag his feet. In consequence Russia cut the 'integration rent' by demanding higher prices for its oil.

Back from Sochi and faced with a diminishing economy Lukashenko changed tack. He openly courted the U.S. and other western countries and suddenly emphasized Belorussian sovereignty. He even bought U.S. shale oil:

Lukashenko has long balanced keeping Russia close but not too close. He rarely throws up any roadblocks to Russian policies. But Lukashenko also has resisted the Kremlin’s push for the two countries to form a unified state — something they agreed to in 1999.
So when they failed in December to agree on a new price for oil Moscow sells to Minsk, Russia temporarily cut the supply. Lukashenko then vowed to diversify Belarus’s oil suppliers. He delivered by purchasing shipments from Azerbaijan, Norway and Saudi Arabia all in the past five months, capitalizing on a coronavirus-induced shock to oil prices.
Pompeo visited Minsk in early February, when he first offered to sell American oil “at a competitive price.” It marked the first trip to Belarus by the top U.S. diplomat since Lukashenko took power. Then in April, the two countries formally reestablished diplomatic relations when Julie Fisher, a top State Department official for Europe, was named ambassador to Belarus — a position that had been vacant for more than a decade.

Lukashenko's unsustainable stunt of buying oil elsewhere worked to a certain extent. In May Russia again agreed to deliver oil to Belarus but only half the amount of previous years.

But to get nearer to the 'west' also has a price. A U.S. ambassador in town means that regime change plots are never far away. The sudden attention that Belarus now receives from U.S. aligned organizations is a sure sign that one is underway.

On August 9 Belarus will hold presidential elections. Lukashenko will do his best to win again.

Color revolutions are usually launched over controversial elections. The results are publicly put into doubt even before the election begins. When the results finally arrive western media will claim that they diverge from the expectation it created and therefore must have been faked. People will be pushed into the streets to protest. To increase the chaos some sharp shooters may be put to work to fire at the police and at protesters like it was done in Ukraine. The revolt ends when it is flogged down or when the U.S. favorite candidate is put into place.

Last year the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy financed at least 34 projects and organizations in Belarus. The U.S. does not do that out of charity but to put its finger on the scale.

The U.S. seems to have at least two candidates in the race. The first one is the Navalny like rabble rousing 'slipper man':

During the early stages of the current election campaign, thousands have been queuing up in towns and cities to sign petitions backing the candidacies of Lukashenko’s main rivals. Candidates must collect 100,000 signatures by early July in order to be eligible for the ballot.

Some anti-Lukashenko protesters have begun brandishing slippers in response to popular YouTube vlogger and presidential hopeful Syarhey Tsikhanouski’s call to squash the Belarus president “like a cockroach”. This has led to tentative talk of a looming “slipper revolution” in line with the branded protest movements that have succeeded in toppling authoritarian regimes elsewhere in the former Soviet Union.

Two candidates can probably be taken seriously:

Viktor Babariko is the former head of Belgazprombank, while Valery Tsepkalo is a former senior Lukashenko administration official who served as Belarusian ambassador to the United States before more recently heading up the Belarus Hi-Tech Park, one of the largest IT clusters in Central and Eastern Europe. Unlike the puppets and outsiders who are generally permitted to run against Lukashenko, Babariko and Tsepkalo have the necessary seniority and establishment experience to be taken seriously as alternatives to the current political status quo.

Babariko, as former head of a Gazprom bank, is presumed to be Russia's favorite candidate while Tsepkalo is likely the one who the U.S. would like to see in office. Both have quite similar neoliberal programs which argue for privatization and a more open economy.

Lukashenko may take steps to remove candidates who could endanger his position. Police say they found $900,000 in a house owned by the 'video blogger' Tsikhanouski. He is also accused of attacking police at an unsanctioned rally.  Last week Babariko's former bank was raided over accusations of a tax evasion scheme. Tsepkalo was fired as head of the Belarus Hi-Tech Park after he had used it to enrich himself. There are several obvious fraud cases that could be raised against him.

The economy of Belarus is likely to shrink this year. Lukashenko's response to the Covid-19 epidemic has been as bad as Trump's. The state income from refining and selling products from subsidized Russian oil is down.

There are reasons to vote Lukashenko out of office. But there are also reasons for wanting him to stay.

The GDP per person in Belarus is around $20,000 (PPP). That is double the number of its neighbor Ukraine and some 30% lower than in Russia. Income equality in Belarus is relatively high. Social security and services function to a significant degree.

It is not at all reasonable to claim that Lukashenko could not be a legitimate election winner.

A color revolution, as it is now in preparation, would probably end up destroying the country.

Should Belarus fall into the hand of a 'western' sponsored candidate its future would be bleak. The state owned industries would be privatized for pennies and much of the Soviet Union like social system, which still works well for most of its people, would be dismantled. The economic relations with Russia would suffer. In the end Belarus would probably be worse off than even the Ukraine.

The long term future of the country lies with Russia which has the resources and interests to manage it well. The economies of both countries are already highly integrated. Their people speak the same language. They have a common history and the same religion.

Russia has high interest to keep Belarus within its realm. It is difficult to predict how it will react should a U.S. directed color revolution proceed.

Posted by b on June 16, 2020 at 17:42 UTC | Permalink


b Thanks for the another regime change. I hope Germany is not part of the scheme?

Posted by: JC | Jun 16 2020 17:53 utc | 1

thanks b... this is so predictable and tiring.... hopefully the locals will see thru it, but i would imagine they would like a change too and any change might look like a better change... this quote from you is the whole reason for these colour revolutions thanks uncle NED and etc... "The state owned industries would be privatized for pennies and much of the Soviet Union like social system, which still works well for most of its people, would be dismantled. The economic relations with Russia would suffer. In the end Belarus would probably be worse off than even the Ukraine."

lets hope the wheels keep on coming off the usa... it will slow down this foreign export stuff if it does...

Posted by: james | Jun 16 2020 17:58 utc | 2

Deutsche Welle has been pushing a Belarus as EU candidate message for the last few years.Never quite sure of interconnections between US and German deep-state objectives and goals.

Posted by: Palinarius | Jun 16 2020 18:05 utc | 3

Great post, very interesting situation that I was not familiar with. The posts on US politics sometimes get on my nerves as we are bombarded with that nonsense constantly, and it is difficult to apply realpolitik amid all the BS... but THIS is the type of content that keeps me reading MoA! You are great b, keep it up.

Posted by: sabre | Jun 16 2020 18:10 utc | 4

Lukashenko should stop playing games or he will end up like Yanukovic.

Also B.
The candidate Babariko, former head of a Gazprom bank is not in favour of closer integration with Russia. He is a pro European neo liberal

Posted by: James2 | Jun 16 2020 18:26 utc | 5

What occurred in Ukraine will not be allowed to happen in Belrus. One look at the map ought to tell you why. I'd expect to same suite of anti-US NGO laws Russia has to be quickly passed and their personnel ejected.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 16 2020 18:37 utc | 6

Looking at a map Byelarus is as important as Crimea, but everything is so unstable everywhere that anything could happen. A very appetizing morsel for the empire, but fortunately for the byelorussians, at a time of imperial low vigour. Hard to fathom what would happen if a Minsk Maidan is the plan.

Posted by: Paco | Jun 16 2020 19:29 utc | 7

yes, thanks for the very interesting and extremely timely post.. I think it is clear there are 2^8 or about 256 nation states. Fitting controllable puppets in each nation state is quite a trick; it takes the likes of the CIA and the Money of the USA. to make that happen in a continuous fashion.

Posted by: snake | Jun 16 2020 19:31 utc | 8

Russia would never accept a NATO stooge in Belarus, if the US tried a colour revolution the Russians probably have a hotline directly to Lukashenko to invite Russian advisors to stabilize the country. Belarus is vital for Russian territorial security (they even have a legal agreement calling for its' eventual union with Russia). In the same way Russia couldn't afford to lose Crimea, they cant afford to lose Belarus

Posted by: Kadath | Jun 16 2020 19:51 utc | 9

Message to the Congress on the Continuation of the National Emergency with Respect to Belarus
Foreign Policy
Issued on: June 13, 2019


Section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)) provides for the automatic termination of a national emergency unless, within 90 days before the anniversary date of its declaration, the President publishes in the Federal Register and transmits to the Congress a notice stating that the emergency is to continue in effect beyond the anniversary date.

In accordance with this provision, I have sent to the Federal Register for publication the enclosed notice stating that the national emergency with respect to the actions and policies of certain members of the Government of Belarus and other persons to undermine democratic processes or institutions of Belarus that was declared in Executive Order 13405 of June 16, 2006, is to continue in effect beyond June 16, 2019.

The actions and policies of certain members of the Government of Belarus and other persons to undermine Belarus’s democratic processes or institutions, to commit human rights abuses related to political repression, and to engage in public corruption continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.

Therefore, I have determined that it is necessary to continue the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13405 with respect to Belarus.


June 13, 2019
14 years this National Emergency has been afflicting the USA, all caused by Belarus...the average USA citizen must be deeply affected by this emergency situation so powerfully affecting its citizens.

Afghanistan was a walk in the park compared to this dire Belarussian situation.

Posted by: powerandpeople | Jun 16 2020 20:00 utc | 10

Lukashenko will win, but it will be close enough (with some manipulation) to make him piss his pants and run back toward Russian safety

Posted by: The Scalpel | Jun 16 2020 20:31 utc | 11

I'm sure Poland has an interest in gaining some western parts of Belarus that it regards as historic Polish territory. Belarus surely figures in future Polish ambitions to head an Intermarium federation of central and eastern European states (with Poland as its leader, regardless of what other member states think) as a supposed bulwark against Russia.

A likely outcome of western interference in Belarus is that the country ends up being pulled apart with the eastern and central parts going to Russia eventually under the 1999 Union agreement and the western parts squabbled over by Poland and Lithuania. There could be a war and a long war at that too, sapping the economies of those two nations and their supporters. This could also affect Ukraine and lead to that nation's break-up as well.

Poland will end up seeing part of its Intermarium ambitions of regaining former Polish territory fulfilled but this territory will come at a huge cost to it - it will be impoverished and people (many of them extreme nationalist Ukrainians in western Ukraine) in that territory have a history of having lynched Polish citizens during WW2 for being Polish.

Posted by: Jen | Jun 16 2020 20:35 utc | 12

Belarus was the gateway to Moscow for both Napoleon and Hitler, Minsk to Smolensk to Moscow.

Pompeo, Trump, and company are fantasizing about conquering Russia, China, and Iran one bite at a time. All in the name of democracy and U.S. national security. These guys are belligerent scum.

The U.S. State Dept has declared Cuba a state sponsor of terrorism in order to add another category of sanctions.

God will not be mocked. The wicked will be brought to ruin in the blink of an eye.

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | Jun 16 2020 20:40 utc | 13

oh Lord, here we go again. Things that happens thousands of miles from the US's borders are an "extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States". What can you say about this level of insanity? The Zionist States of America are a clear and present danger not only to Russia and China but to every nation that seeks to pursue its own independent, sovereign policies. Trump is as much a stooge as Obama or Bush before him.

Posted by: Nick | Jun 16 2020 20:44 utc | 14

Just looked up and found that as of 12 June 2020, over 52,500 cases of COVID-19 had been registered in Belarus and so far 312 deaths from the disease have been recorded.

From other online info I have been able to find, hospital services in the country continue as normal and people with chronic conditions are still being treated. The hospital system still runs on Soviet lines which I understand caters for spare capacity in case of sudden epidemic or pandemic emergencies and enables some hospitals to specialise in treating infectious diseases. This probably helps explain the low mortality figure.

The Belarus govt uses contact tracing and testing to find new COVID-19 cases.

Posted by: Jen | Jun 16 2020 20:49 utc | 15

powerandpeople | Jun 16 2020 20:00 utc | 10:

The people of the USA appreciate your support during this emergency. Between the Belarus situation and the decline of the “Star Wars” franchise, it’s been hell for them.

Posted by: David G | Jun 16 2020 21:10 utc | 16

The economy of Belarus is likely to shrink this year. Lukashenko's response to the Covid-19 epidemic has been as bad as Trump's.
I think it would be shrinking a lot more if Belarus had undertaken what would be deemed here a “good” response.

Posted by: David G | Jun 16 2020 21:16 utc | 17

One would imagine that the chances of a State Department sponsored 'revolution' in Belarus would be very slander indeed.
After all there is the lesson not only of Ukraine, reduced to ruins after a few years of rule according to the desires of NATO/EU/USA, but of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania where emigration has become central to the economy.
Hudson has written at length on the disasters of the Baltic lands. And the lives of ordinary people there-those allowed to vote and afforded the minimal rights of citizenship- are dire. And show no signs of improving.
On the other hand the 'revolutionaries' and the State Department have a superficially seductive ideology: on the surface it is libertarian and "American" underneath, underpinning it and brushing all traces of 'libertarian' ideology aside it is fascism-derived directly from collaboration with the Nazis, sustained by decades of emigre cossetting in the Cold War and muscled up with death squads and militias recruited by business mafias, hungry for public property, and used to eradicate opposition.
Thus it was that, after a clinic in bad government put on by Poroshenko in Ukraine, which included not just plunging living standards but rule by criminal lynch mobs, the best the Opposition could come up with was a clownish actor, fettered by imperialism and the local Nazis-who he had comprehensively defeated electorally but who today have as much power as ever, essentially ruling society from an electoral base in Galicia of less than 7% of the population.
Unhappily there is no socialist opposition. None is allowed. And the ideology of Putin's supporters is one of commitment to capitalism and moderate oligarchy.
Which means that while nobody in Belarus with any sense wants one, the projected 'colour' revolution is unlikely to be opposed by any united popular force.
So long as the fascists and imperialists are allowed to monopolise the popular themes of national self sufficiency and dignity- ironically as a means of delivering the White Russian people back into the hands of the western imperialism now represented by the successors of the Teutonic Knights in the EU and NATO- they have a chance. Not because there is anything attractive about the NATO model but because the alternative has no democratic popular base.

Posted by: bevin | Jun 16 2020 21:22 utc | 18

This is how neoliberal capitalism churns up resources and profits--and then sells it to the bourgeois-bloc in Europe and America as progress.

Posted by: Tower | Jun 16 2020 21:25 utc | 19

With the wisdom in mind that “half a loaf is better than none”, this might be a good time for Russia to appreciate what they’ve got in Lukashenko, bolster him going into the election, and let progress toward the Union State progress at its own pace.

Posted by: David G | Jun 16 2020 21:27 utc | 20

This year is just worst with each passing day..India(the real newcomer as usa toilet cleaners)and South Korea could soon be directly involved against the "red threat".Zionists are preparing to expand borders with the consequences this will have around.In the meanwhile W.Barr wants to arrest Maduro for smuggling drugs and now we have even more sanctions for Cuba for being a terrorist supporter..If it was a joke I'd laugh for hours.

Posted by: LuBa | Jun 16 2020 21:35 utc | 21

Belarus has a similar ethnic division as Ukraine. Western part of Belarus belonged to Poland and Lithuania historically and people in these parts are catholics and speak Belarussian language. Other parts of Belarus have historical ties to Russia, they speak Russian and they are orthodox christians.

I suspect ethnic tension will be utilized by western countries in order to create chaos inside Belarus in a similar way as was done in Ukraine.

Posted by: Pekka | Jun 16 2020 21:42 utc | 22

I would think Moscow would appreciate the value of keeping Belarus as a buffer state, especially given the existing strong cultural and economic links between the two, even if they fall short of full “integration”.

Once Belarus is de facto or de jure united with Russia, then that’s a whole new, lengthy stretch of border that directly abuts on NATO states, and the ones with the greatest fear/hostility toward Russia to boot. US/NATO troops on that border would be facing Russia directly, and any problems might be seen as a territorial threat demanding an extreme response from Moscow.

Since that’s what NATO did by incorporating the Baltics, a Russian countermove could be justified as provoked, but NATO/Baltic/Polish Russophobes would likely still paint it as aggressive (and have a point).

Of course the main aggression as always is coming from the West (slippers this time, for God’s sake), but that doesn’t necessarily make the opposite move by Russia a good idea.

Posted by: David G | Jun 16 2020 21:59 utc | 23

Oh man, I've been waiting for the chanclas revolution come to Mexico. :)
Yo esse, they beat them too it, carnal.

How many here have heard of chanclas?

And here is how to survive them.
CHANCLAS | Mexican Survival Guide

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Jun 16 2020 22:00 utc | 24

I'm not too familiar with the situation on the ground in Belarus, but I have heard something about several candidates who hold a pro-Russian integrationist position. The common understanding is that they're built up by the current government, to suck the air out of any real leftist opposition, string left-leaning voters along and scare right-leaning voters straight, then be dropped out on some technicality like place of birth. If Lukashenko is building them up in order to, himself, appeal to a more center-right voting block, it's the photo-negative of Yanukovich political strategy in the Ukraine with the far right, and we know what came out of that.

Though I wouldn't expect a color revolution in Belarus to produce mirror image results to those of the Maidan coup, there are certain variable differences that could be interpreted to point that way, but the full consequences of anarchic power struggles are inherently difficult to predict in advance. Even if Lukashenko was forcefully removed by a pro-Russian clique, with a modicum of public support, and served the country up to Russia on a silver platter, I suspect Moscow would see it as a disservice considering all the underlying problems that would entail -- not unlike the situation with the Donbas. At the same time, political analysts in Russia view Lukashenko as becoming increasingly more nationalistic and right-leaning, and his strategy of non-alignment but expecting benefits from both sides ultimately makes his position as a strategic partner to either East or West untenable.

Posted by: Skiffer | Jun 16 2020 22:22 utc | 25

snake #8

Is this more evasive BS?

You owe us an explanation for the dumb right wing loonie link you posted at #110 in the Harry Harris thread. You linked to a ridiculous story at the millennium report which runs stories like:

Highly Organized Communist Plot to Collapse the American Republic via CIVIL WAR 2.0

Are you a propagandist?

You had better give us some proof that the May 16 tweet from the obummer foundation was actually real or else POQ.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 16 2020 22:27 utc | 26

The U.S. considers the Slipper Man a shoo-in for the election (I couldn't resist) :)

Posted by: norecovery | Jun 16 2020 22:32 utc | 27

I carefully follow the publications of Russian experts and political scientists on the development of the situation in Belarus.
Must say that the picture is disappointing, the prospects are not at all bright.

In particular, one of the recent very good generalization analyzes was made by the editor-in-chief of the website, the title is “Why Belarus Is Doomed”. Here is the link to the video. Who speaks/understands Russian, I strongly advise to watch the video.

In fact, Belarus has only two ways - to try to turn the tide (although now this seems almost impossible) and return to normal constructive relations with Russia. Or continue the current movement - the so-called 'turn to West'.
In the first case, the country will be preserved and it has a chance to stand in this world and develop.
In the second case, Belarus will become just another limitrophic zone (with all the ensuing consequences) on the border between Russia and the West, and the country will resemble present-day Ukraine (= barbaric black hole).

By and large, the turn of Belarus to the West has already been completed. Lukashenko himself did it. Surrounding himself entirely with a pro-Western elite, appointing these people to all key posts in the country. Harassment of Russian media in Belarus. The elimination of the pro-Russian opposition. Flirting with local nationalists (wanting "independence from Russia"). Work permit in the country of dozens of pro-Western NGOs (it's clear by whom and for what they are sponsored). Refusal to place a military base of the Russian Federation on the territory of Belarus. Of the recent "feats" - a joint(!) military exercises with a NATO-member country, Britain (intentionally directly on the border with Russia). And I will not even mention Lukashenko’s frankly boorish behavior, his unacceptable remarks about Russia and its leadership.

Recall also non-condemnation (= support) of Ukraine in the Donbass issue, Belarus’s refusal to recognize the legitimacy of Crimea’s joining the Russian Federation, and even earlier - non-support of Russia in recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia after the 2008 Georgian aggression.

The fundamental choice of the Belarusian leadership has already been made. And it is not in favor of Russia.
Unfortunately, Lukashenko is leading his country into the abyss.
I do not expect anything good about what will happen to Belarus in the coming years. It is likely something like Ukraine-2, maybe in a somewhat "lite version".


Some good related articles:

link 1
link 2
link 3
link 4
link 5

Posted by: alaff | Jun 16 2020 22:37 utc | 28

Not sure what to think of this one; will it succeed and does the kind of "success" the US has in these things (Ukraine is reduced to a poor joke about turds lost in the wasteland, the US insists the poop is gold) matter beyond (and this is significant) the unfortunate people killed or caught up in it? All for no good reason :(

This stuff isn't going to make one iota of difference in any attack on Russia (except perhaps make it harder like Ukraine did, not easier), it is and still will be suicide for the US.

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 16 2020 22:42 utc | 29

Lukashenko refused to take a knee and submit to COVID. It was business as usual for the most part.

Lukashenko repeatedly played down the danger of the coronavirus, saying a lockdown would be ineffective, unjustified and bad for business and society.

Clearly a threat to the Globalist Techno-Fascist agenda

I suspect groups like ByCovid-19 who organized and funded to protest the lack of response are part of the color revolution

Posted by: Kay Fabe | Jun 16 2020 22:43 utc | 30

Lukashenko's response to the Covid-19 epidemic has been as bad as Trump's.

What do you mean? Belarus did not have a "lockdown", life has proceeded as normal and the death rate has been low. Its economy will have been affected by the impact of the "lockdowns" of its trading partners but it has not suffered directly. So in what way has Lukashenko's response been as bad as Trump's?

Posted by: cirsium | Jun 16 2020 23:11 utc | 31

Posted by: LuBa | Jun 16 2020 21:35 utc | 21 This year is just worst with each passing day..India (the real newcomer as usa toilet cleaners) and South Korea could soon be directly involved against the "red threat".Zionists are preparing to expand borders with the consequences this will have around. In the meanwhile W.Barr wants to arrest Maduro for smuggling drugs and now we have even more sanctions for Cuba for being a terrorist supporter..If it was a joke I'd laugh for hours.

Nice recap. Add all of these to the ongoing mess in Syria and Libya and Lebanon and Yemen, continued US threats against Iran, the mess that remains in Afghanistan and Iraq, a pandemic, and riots in the US.

Yeah, I'd say we're looking at the worst year...well, in years.

As far as Belarus goes, my guess is that Putin is already well aware of the situation, and counter-moves are already in the works. He's not going to let another Ukraine occur on his watch. This might end up with another public referendum that brings Belarus into Russia like Crimea did. Presumably a lot of the Belarusians were in favor the Union State to begin with, so getting up a referendum might not be difficult, if they can convince the public to let Lukashenko stay on for a bit longer regardless of any faults.

If Belarus ends up directly part of Russia via referendum, the US will throw a hissy fit. But what can they do? Impose sanctions? Sooner or later, the US will have sanctioned everyone in the world except Australia, Japan and Britain (and Israel, goes without saying), and everyone else will ignore them.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 16 2020 23:45 utc | 32

Excuse the off topic but i just heard Yemeni Brigadier General Yahya Saree say the Yemeni Air Force of the Army and Popular Committees used five Qasef-2k drones to strike Fighter Jets' Hangers, armories and sensitive Saudi military targets in Khamis Mushayt, in Asir, southwestern Saudi Arabia. Anyone know anything about this?

Posted by: snake | Jun 17 2020 1:40 utc | 33

Thank you b,

this morning, via the internet, I listened to the Australian ABC Radio National breakfast show "expert" talk about the current situation in Korea. ABC Radio National likes to market itself as informed and high brow. However, I had read your recent more believable and detailed post on the real Korea situation. There was no comparison. ABC listeners were left unaware of the sequenced timetable agreed upon at the negotiations and were simply told that the current situation was merely irrational behaviour and a further negotiating position on the part of the North Koreans.

Therefore I await the MSM version of the events in Belarus and their shameful and routine censorship by omission.

By the way the ABC never notices the blatant contradictions between politicians hand on heart claims of 'our values, rules based international order, liberal democracy' and their self same devotion to grotesque daily barbarism and illegal Zionist expansionism in Palestine.

Posted by: Paul | Jun 17 2020 1:52 utc | 34

I'm wondering if branding the forthcoming regime-change plot a Slipper Revolution is a sign that the US Crank Tank self-worshipers have convinced themselves that they're going to kick Putin in the teeth? In Oz, "sink the slipper" means to kick someone when they're down, during a brawl.

Imo, there is sufficient ambiguity in Lukashenko's apparent attitude toward Russia for this to be a joint Russia/Belarus plot to ambush a Yankee color revolution. Putin isn't as stupid as the Yankees wish he could be and there's no doubt in my mind that Lukashenko is listening very carefully to everything Putin is telling him. Who wouldn't?

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 17 2020 1:54 utc | 35

snake #32

Anyone know anything about this?

Got a link snake? Maybe your favorite Col Long or zh or why not at The millennium.

Or is more Q propaganda to waste our time.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 17 2020 2:23 utc | 36

Here is an 11-minute mini-doc video about the Soros/CIA/Israeli instigated "Rose Revolution" in Georgia that turned it into an American vassal state.

Posted by: Carlton Meyer | Jun 17 2020 2:58 utc | 37

Hoarsewhisperer #34

Agreed, Lukashenko would be well aware of the mendacious land grabbers in Poland and Lithuania and their perpetual desire to destroy national cohesion in Belarus. If he wasn't he could not have lasted this long I assume.

Good luck to all those who border Poland, may they have peace through vigilance and their action to maintain national security.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 17 2020 3:22 utc | 38

Nick #14

Trump is as much a stooge as Obama or Bush before him.

I see all three as paid functionaries. They are not unaware of the job description, in fact they adhere strictly to it and that way enjoy maximum benefits after their promotion to ex-president. Should they waver they will be shown the real Zapruda film of 1963 as a prompt to the best way forward.

The stooges are the likes of Vindman and Strzok and Abedin.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 17 2020 3:35 utc | 39

I'm not so sure the US has any reason to be "happy" about Georgia though.

There has been a lot of scapegoating there and in other former USSR republics and in former Warsaw pact nations of Russia as some kind of "remnant USSR" which it simply isn't. It's as stupid and pointless as blaming present day Germany for Hitler. I can understand some people blaming the USSR for —at least— the normal level of "bad luck" in the past that people can experience in any system, but not the blaming of Russia.

However no matter what I think they will find out for themselves quickly enough that scapegoating doesn't solve any real issues, and when they do they pretty much have to realize they have been misused by the US.

In the end this only means the US has more enemies than they are likely to realize …as is easily already the case within NATO.

It's the curse of the yes-men, including those who drag their feet.

It could also easily be incredibly stupid of the US to use the "former home turf" of an enemy as a staging ground or "advantage". The military knowledge and experience Russia indeed did inherit from the USSR.

Someone please tell me there are still people in the Pentagon not shy of telling each other these sorts of things (I believe there's much more that has been forgotten or lost but this ought to be enough).

Posted by: Sunny Runny Burger | Jun 17 2020 4:36 utc | 40

"mainly exports heavy machinery"

Really heavy:

Posted by: Keith McClary | Jun 17 2020 5:06 utc | 41

Lukashenko recent courting of the USA was and is a reckless act.

Someone should have advised him that the very last thing the USA wants from its sycophants is recklessness.

It wants subservience, and if Lukashenko can't provide that then as far as Washington is concerned he has got to go.

The very act of courting Washington proves that Lukashenko is .... reckless

As reckless as, say, Saddam Hussein or Gaddafi. And didn't things end well for those two boobs....

He is inviting the same fate, and all for nothing: there is no way Russia will tolerate a USA puppet in Belarus, so the moment Lukashenko swings from a gibbet (which is what Washington will insist upon) the Russians will send in the tanks.

Not to save his sorry arse, no, no way, but to secure Russia's own national interest.

What. A. F**kwit.

Obviously Game Of Thrones was never broadcast in Belarus. If it was then he'd know what a stupid move this was. He may as well have slipped the noose over his own neck.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Jun 17 2020 5:14 utc | 42

Russians are thoroughly disgusted with endless Lukashenko antics concerning the unionization and continuous attempts at profiting off the oil that is already subsidized. He is already being made to pay the price through MZKT losing lucrative contracts for mobile ICBM carriers, and this is just the beginning, as the next strike when Ust-Luga port will be finalized will kill limitrophe transit bulk shipping in the whole region, not just Belarus. Russia is the origin point of all the traffic, lol.

Posted by: WHAT | Jun 17 2020 5:34 utc | 43

copeland morris DE FACTO...DE JURE

If the slipper don't fit, the fool has to quit.

Sub rosa, sub rover, the masquerade's over.

Saddle up, straddle up stoneface warhorse

The old men and brethren to sing the chorus

Of Freud's Vienna, Golgotha, Gehenna,

Of dandies festooned in gold drinking brandies,

Of ladies and lords watching soldiers draw swords.

Posted by: Copeland | Jun 17 2020 5:45 utc | 44

Indirectly, you've explained to me that USA are under a colour revolution too. The same tactics are applied in both countries.

Posted by: DidierF | Jun 17 2020 6:57 utc | 45

A few maps can assist in understanding issues

Belarus can choose a future similar to Russia or Ukraine, and Maidan offers lessons regarding the loving embrace of nato and the EU. Neo-liberal de-industrialization would destroy the country. Choose wisely Belarus.

Posted by: sad canuck | Jun 17 2020 7:39 utc | 46

Thanks for another interesting analysis. I knew something was brewing there but hadn't done much research into the what and why's

Posted by: Et Tu | Jun 17 2020 7:49 utc | 47

Nice digging... but ultimately irrelevant.

It's basically more or less the same blog story for years and the question is always the same - what will Russia do in response to this or that by the Deep State in this or that country.

Colour revolution in Europe or not, everything hinges on and circles back to whether Trump wins in November or Hillary and her mixed gang (including all the media on both sides that despises Trump including 'B' lol) try to sneak back into power via Biden.

Maybe this years "October Surprise" will be a war in Europe.....

Posted by: Skeletor | Jun 17 2020 7:55 utc | 48


Interesting set of maps, the last one is quite instructive, Poland dreaming about "from sea to shining sea" forgetting that they swallowed a huge chunk of Germany after IIWW. They're being set up as the US base of choice, and they'll end up like the slice of bologna in a bloody sandwich, again.

Posted by: Paco | Jun 17 2020 8:32 utc | 49

My Belarus friends think that the attempt to do a Minsk Maidan will fail - the villains have set about it too late and in any event Russia won’t allow it.

Belarus is the last of the real genuine Socialist Republics - it has a strangely old-fashioned feel to it, with its strict social discipline and as far as I know complete absence of “Gastarbeiter” from the Muslim republics.

Minsk is a fine impressive city, all white buildings and wide boulevards, before the war I think it had the largest population of Jews in any city. Of course it was flattened during the war and had to be completely rebuilt. We know what happened to the Jewish population.

Welfare is only paid to those who work, which explains the clean streets and the absence of the Tajiks and Uzbeks who keep Russian cities rolling.

As another poster commented, the situation is comparable to Ukraine in that you have a heavily Catholic population in the west, who are related by religion and often blood to their Polish neighbours. The eastern part is Orthodox. Like the Baltic’ States, Belarus has suffered a tremendous loss of population over the last thirty years. “All we have left is pensioners and schoolchildren!”. The westerners have gone to Poland, the easterners to Russia.

Lukashenko has walked a difficult knife-edge with skill and so far has managed to prevent Belarus being gobbled up by the west or the east. Good luck to him.

Posted by: Montreal | Jun 17 2020 10:52 utc | 50

Vassal statehood bad for the people but ... good for the oligarchs

Do the citizens of Belarus have a choice any more than the Bolivians did? I hope Putin noticed Bolivia, the President there got 60% of the vote but it didn't matter. We wanted him out, we had enough insiders and military contacts to get rid of him and our MSM went along with the 'restoring democracy line'.

All we need is enough troublemakers and to bribe the right oligarchs and Belarus is ours and it will never come back. How many countries ever shake free of our yoke once we clamp it on? Russia is the only case I know of. So what if we ruin Belarus and cause it to become a chaotic ghost town. We will blame Russia and the talking heads on FOXCNN will go along with it and we will have another missile base on Russia's borders.

Fun fact: My grandparents came from Minsk.

Posted by: Christian J. Chuba | Jun 17 2020 13:07 utc | 51

"He has stuck to Soviet-era policies."

The Soviet Union in the seventies and Belarus today have radically different economics. Soviet workers in that period weren’t losing their jobs because of deindustrialization or economic restructuring. The problem wasn’t the absence of workplaces, but rather the presence of unattractive workplaces.

Further, the Soviet government offered much more robust social support than what’s available in Belarus, which offers decent health care but neglects education and housing. And while Soviet law did not recognize domestic workers as unemployed, Lukashenko’s new decree does. This change especially targets women.

Posted by: Louis N Proyect | Jun 17 2020 13:08 utc | 52

Initially it was Lukashenko who was the true proponent of the Union State, not Yeltsin and the oligarchs around him.
For years Lukashenko was hoping for a positive change in Russia, but with Putin, yet another pro-oligarchical Yeltsinist, it never really came. Lukashenko refused to hand over the country and national economy to Putin's oligarchs and to the selfish and power thirsty Russian political elites. As for the "mighty" Russia again it will be just like with Ukraine: "we were surprised, we did not know what was going on there".

Posted by: steve | Jun 17 2020 13:09 utc | 53

This article illustrates very well the profound differences between MoA post-January 2020 and MoA pre-2020.

The incisive and well-balanced analysis of yesteryear is gone, replaced by something altogether cruder, less sensitive, reliant on innuendo, and using as primary sources top US propaganda mouthpieces NYT, Washington Post and CNN, instead of reliable, quality and truthful alternative sources such as Elija Magnier. Articles are undercut by fatal flaws such as the following:

1) The economy of Belarus is likely to shrink this year. Lukashenko's response to the Covid-19 epidemic has been as bad as Trump's.

Cheap innuendo fuelled by hubris, reaking of US State Department or other US agency internal analysis.

The US has 2.2 million Covid-19 cases and over 119,000 deaths. So far only 900,000 recoveries. It's entire Covid-19 saga has been deeply slashed at every single level by lies, corruption, ignorance, criminal negligence, incompetence and malevalance.

What comparison is Belarus with only 324 deaths????? The comparison is as absurd as to say that "X-country's" response was as much a fiasco as Trump's - take your pick of countries with an equally low Covid death rate to replace X, to that of Belarus. No lockdown does not automatically equal failure - instead of relying on hubris and innuendo check the facts, which speak for themselves - Belarus is probably the best example available of a no-lockdown policy that worked (but much more relevantly with contact tracing and testing backed up by quality hospital service). Using "No Lockdown" as an automatic indicator of "Bad As Trump" is simply laughable and deeply contradicted by the figures. The comparison relies exclusively on INNUENDO and HUBRIS - typical US propaganda mouthpiece technique.

2) Babariko, as former head of a Gazprom bank, is presumed to be Russia's favorite candidate while Tsepkalo is likely the one who the U.S. would like to see in office. Both have quite similar neoliberal programs which argue for privatization and a more open economy.

It would be foolish indeed to believe that Russia would endeavour to play the US's election tricks in Belarus to undermine their own man! Lukashenko has plenty of negative points and Russia is certainly dissatisfied with him, but he still has a strongly dominant position. Throwing away Russia's strategic ties to Lukashenko by supporting an election candidate with at best HIGHLY iffy chances is the kind of blind idiocy that the US goes for time and again, but NEVER in a decade of sundays will Russia make such an idiotic mistake. Russia will certainly be making moves towards an EVENTUAL alternative to Lukashenko, but Russia plays the long game, and she plays well.

[Does this imply that Babariko is the US's favoured candidate and that Tsepkalo is the US's diversion candidate? Would seem more plausible]

Sceptical readers would do well to read the writing on the wall - a gradual and now accelerating movement over the last two decades towards increasing censorship of the internet, step-by-step removal or takeover of alternative voices and media, tightening up of tools for threatening and silencing sources of alternative opinion, the take-down of legal process, and the scrapping of rights. With the Skripal fairy tale and the Boeing fiasco MoA-s readership shot up, supported with its always strong analysis of Syria, Iraq, Iran, and other topical issues of geopolitics. How long was the US expected to tolerate the voice of an alternative media outlet with such a growing reach and with such a well-established reputation for incisive and relatively impartial analysis?

Technically, the entire global internet is under the exclusive control of the US intelligence agencies - and especially so of the US domains such as .org. The US has exclusive control of the address lookup for all the US top-level domains .org .net .com .gov .edu. Through that address lookup they have exclusive control over which of millions of servers in the world your browser is connected to when you type any internet address. The address can be - and when desired is, according to Edward Snowdon - redirected at their decision to a server of their choice. Read the writing on the wall and compare with what is happening.

Posted by: BM | Jun 17 2020 14:23 utc | 54

I'm sure Poland has an interest in gaining some western parts of Belarus that it regards as historic Polish territory. Belarus surely figures in future Polish ambitions to head an Intermarium federation of central and eastern European states (with Poland as its leader, regardless of what other member states think) as a supposed bulwark against Russia.

A likely outcome of western interference in Belarus is that the country ends up being pulled apart with the eastern and central parts going to Russia eventually under the 1999 Union agreement and the western parts squabbled over by Poland and Lithuania. There could be a war and a long war at that too, sapping the economies of those two nations and their supporters. This could also affect Ukraine and lead to that nation's break-up as well.
Posted by: Jen | Jun 16 2020 20:35 utc | 12

Thanks for that Jen, the sort of detail lacking in this article.

Posted by: BM | Jun 17 2020 14:40 utc | 55

Presumably Russia has spent the last 20 years cultivating a pro-Russian replacement for Lukashenko to takeover upon his inevitable demise to push the Union of Russia & Belarus forward.

Presumably they do right?

If they don't - I can only conclude that is a massive dereliction of duty on the part of Russia. Have they noticed what has gone on on their periphery in the last 20+ years?

Posted by: Julian | Jun 17 2020 15:12 utc | 56


Of course they have noticed. After the desaster of Georgia and the Maidan Putin will not allow anything similar to happen again.

Posted by: Lily | Jun 17 2020 15:34 utc | 57

Oh, you're talking about Belarus. I thought for a moment you were talking about the U.S.A. "riots".

Posted by: Robert | Jun 17 2020 15:45 utc | 58

Meanwhile, it's beginning to look like India and China are headed for war...

20 Indian Soldiers Killed; Over 40 Chinese Casualties, Say Sources

New Delhi: Twenty Indian soldiers were killed in a "violent face-off" with Chinese troops at Galwan Valley in Ladakh, the army said on Tuesday, in the most serious escalation between the two countries along the border in five decades. News agency ANI claimed that sources had confirmed 43 Chinese soldiers have been killed or seriously injured because of intercepts, though the army's statement did not refer to this. A statement on Tuesday confirmed the death of a Colonel and two jawans and spoke of "casualties on both sides". India blamed the clashes on "an attempt by the Chinese side to unilaterally change the status quo there", rebutting China's claims that Indian soldiers crossed the border.

We got two nuclear powers shooting at each other, folks...

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 17 2020 15:57 utc | 59

@60, what will be interesting to watch if this escalates beyond a manageable threshold, is Pakistan's reaction. Will Pakistan take advantage of India's vulnerability thinking India won't fight two wars on two fronts? I have predicted this since Trump's inauguration. A world sans American dominance will descend into chaos as the various players seek to fill the power vacuum and the world transitions to a new power paradigm. That process may very well be the end of life on this planet as we have known it. It's analagous to a plaque loosening from an artery wall in the heart and making its way to the brain. In this case, it's just entered the brain and is lodging as we type.

I'm not advocating for the continuance of American dominance by the way, I'm just stating the implications of a world without it that has been so accustomed to it for more than half a century now. A sudden abrupt decline in America's global influence is likened to a massive unexpected earthquake. There's no way to prepare for the implications.

Posted by: | Jun 17 2020 16:06 utc | 60

Have the Water Wars begun? Make no mistake, China's and India's dispute, or so far a dispute on the threshold of something worse and much more destructive, is about water which will be more precious than rare gems in the last decades of humanity's presence on this planet.

Water Wars: The Brahmaputra River and Sino- Indian Relations

Posted by: | Jun 17 2020 16:27 utc | 61

@ bm... not thought you would be a full on conspiracy theorist... oh well.......... how many more threads are you going to be giving these same message on??

Posted by: james | Jun 17 2020 16:36 utc | 62

BM @Jun17 14:23 #54

1) The narrative that b has been replaced really started after b and neoliberals from Off-Guardian fought over lockdowns. IMO this attack was a vindictive way to smear moa/b. Lockdowns were used by China before they were used by USA and it worked at a time when little was known about the virus.

(See additional commentary about b's stance on HCQ treatment below.)

2) Even pre-2020 b got some major things wrong. For example, he was much criticized about his view of US politics. I know because I frequently warned about Sanders as a sheepdog leading up the 2016 election but b never budged from his pro-Sanders position.

3) Not sure the comparison to Magnier is a good one - he may not be the touchstone you believe him to be. I was critical of Magnier when he pointed the finger at Iran for the mysterious shipping attack in the Middle East and when he appeared to glorify Israeli/Netanyahu's covert campaign against Iran (Netanyahu would later admit that Israel was behind bombing of warehouses in Iraq). Why did Magnier ignore the possibility that Israel was behind the attacks on shipping?

b too-readily agreed with Magnier because b had declared that Iran possessed "escalation dominance" just prior to these attacks on shipping.

<> <> <> <> <>

Every reader/commenter has to come to terms with the possibility that his/her favorite commentator is compromised. That's why its important to read the comment section (b still has a liberal comment policy) and read critically from many sources.

<> <> <> <> <>

IMO b did a great job covering the looming pandemic and Western failures. The only real problem I see with his coverage and POV is with regard to hydroxchloroquine (HCQ) treatment. I haven't made a big deal about this because I think the truth about hcq will eventually come out. But b's failure to at least acknowledged the orchestrated campaign against hcq is disturbing to me and some other readers.

I would also add that there has been a real failure in the West to move from "virus mitigation" (passive measures that allow for living with the virus) to "virus suppression" (taking pro-active measures to fight the virus). Virus suppression requires widespread testing and contact tracing. The West appears to think that that would be too costly and burdensome. They are slow-walking a change in strategy just as they slow-walked their initial response to the pandemic.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jun 17 2020 16:40 utc | 63

the USG controls all our internets!!!! yeah. thanks for more of the paranoid style. try talking to people who live in other parts of the world once in a while.

who did MLKj say, some 50 years ago, was the greatest source of violence in the world? no doubt the USG would love to "turn" Belarus, into another goddam hell on earth nightmare.

and thanks @10. Donald Trump is the man for our time and place, to be the wrecking ball as US Imperium collapses, so that no other possible means of social organization can emerge. the US wins by not allowing an alternative to exist, its only virtue being the unprecedented violence it afflicts everywhere in the world. It strength is its murderousness.

the corona virus is not done w/the US, no matter how gleeful the ruling class is that so far it's mostly killed the olds. pretty clear the primary goal of the global working class is to destroy the USG. the violence will never stop while its greatest cloaca is filling the world with its sewage. everyday the US ruling class reveals that its only concern is making money off of US sheep so that it can engage in the great game. In case this domestic operation is threatened, daily we are being prepared for war to provide outlet for social tensions by nonstop propaganda, most regularly against China. There is really no other plan than if shit gets too out of control, start World War 3. (throwing in some nominally pro-LGBTQ "workers' rights" from SCOTUS as the same legal structure is being used to force ALL workers back to work is just so American. yes, I am that cynical. we will now have to endure more nonsense about how the USG can be "reformed" b/c it is very effective at blowing legal smokescreens up people's asses.)

brings the boys back home. general strike until the US empire collapses. Uncle Sam despises Belarus just because it has a moderately-functioning, i.e., non-capitalist, healthcare system. something that works must be destroyed.

Posted by: jason | Jun 17 2020 16:40 utc | 64

@ used to post intelligent commentary.. now it's 24-7 hit and run pot shots at b... if bm doesn't like it - skip saying the same thing over and over again..

Posted by: james | Jun 17 2020 16:50 utc | 65

" If so why hasn't Russia or China given usalterbatovesto these edu,nets and coms?

Forgive me, I am not computer- savvy and hope my question is not too stupid. "

This is an excellent question that can only be addressed bu asking other questions.

Why does Russia and China allow the west to manipulate gold prices ?

Why does Russia still have a Rothschild affiliated central bank ?

Why did China just allow Amex access to its domestic financial market ?

Does China print debt free money ? Does Russia ?

Posted by: Fog of War | Jun 17 2020 17:03 utc | 66

I dropped in to see if this site has returned to its old standard of integrity. It seems not. No apologies for the Coronavirus hysteria. Why should I believe anything else you write. Belarus did the correct thing by not locking down. You would have been very happy if they had made the same mistake as Russia.

Posted by: Alfred (Cairns) | Jun 17 2020 17:18 utc | 67

The incisive and well-balanced analysis of yesteryear is gone, replaced by something altogether cruder, less sensitive, reliant on innuendo, and using as primary sources top US propaganda mouthpieces NYT, Washington Post and CNN

I fear "they" got to B like they got to the editor of the Guardian here in London with the angled grinders all those year ago. It all now feels like "controlled opposition" (especially when you mention the dreaded Hydroxy...) lol.

We have reached a messed up place when B will acknowledge that NYT/WAPO lie all the time about most things...but quotes them religiously when it comes to anything they write about Trump. Its fascinating to observe on a weekly basis.

Here is the thing.

I will still probably contribute some money when the inevitable "donations" request comes along due to what you alluded to - B's stella work over the preceding years-but yeah, I for one have had my eyes opened in the past couple of months.

Stay safe.

Posted by: Skeletor

Posted by: Skeletor | Jun 17 2020 17:42 utc | 68

Correction @Jun17 16:40 #63

I mistakenly wrote "neoliberals" instead of "libertarians" from Off-Guardian.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jun 17 2020 18:08 utc | 69

it's funny to watch WaPo, the NYT, CNN, Murdoch's Sun, etc., report accurately and truthfully that a hurricane is coming to the Gulf of Mexico. or how many gunshot victims were admitted to Chicago hospitals on a particular weekend. or figures at end of day from Wall St. and then obfuscate as needed about coronavirus, b/c by the nature of the thing, they can.

to a large degree about many things, MSM outlets are not lying in reportage of facts, of brute statistical info. that's not how it generally works. however, what the hell do I know about Belarus? not a lot, but I know enough to be skeptical about certain things from the MSM. i do believe my own lying eyes and daily experience about the US, no matter how much the media tries to convince me otherwise.

Posted by: jason | Jun 17 2020 19:15 utc | 70

@ Jen

If Poland has an interest in gaining some western parts of Belarus so Germany also can to reclaim its former territories in Western Poland..

Posted by: Nick | Jun 17 2020 19:51 utc | 71

Nick #71

Germany perhaps still harbours an interest in some 'lost territory' to its west as well.

I expect the Polish leadership to instigate things via Belarus and the bluster about removing troops from Germany only to have Poland plead for a base is transparent in its provocation.

Lukashenko will need every neuron in his skull to avoid seeing his country destroyed in the next year.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 17 2020 20:50 utc | 72

I have found one's opinion of Covid-19 will on the average be influenced by one's age and health. I am under the impression that b is of a vulnerable age and isn't the fittest person in the world, thusly Covid-19 is a serious threat. They don't call it the Boomer Doomer for nothing, since the Boomer generation is numerous, powerful, and in control of most of the media, you see Covid-19 coverage accompanied with a degree of hysteria.

In Newport Oregon, we recently had a huge Covid outbreak at the local fish processing plant. I have worked there for a couple of seasons in the past, it is hard, dangerous work, 12 hour shifts, 7 days a week and in close quarters. It is food production, so it isn't shut down. Besides the working conditions making Covid transmission likely, there are other variables that don't help. Most of the workers are migrant, and crowd 8 or more into hotel rooms, sharing bunks as the shifts change. They also could care less about social distancing, and facemasks...why...because the life of a migrant worker is already dangerous and full of risk, Covid-19 registers pretty low on their list of worries.

Belarus has a functioning health care system, a fairly low population density, and the country has less diabetes and obesity than most western nations. Under those conditions it does make some sense not to do a total lockdown. Their Covid numbers aren't too bad.

Sunlight and exercise both boost the immune system.

Posted by: Jason | Jun 17 2020 21:43 utc | 73

Jason @73--

The Pacific Seafood facilities in Newport and Astoria were both shut down as I reported last week. I wouldn't be so smug as the death rate for younger people is creeping upwards as more get exposed thanks to ignoring the use of masks and social distancing. Infection rates are increasing in a majority of states, with Arizona where the workers at Pacific Seafood were imported from showing a huge upward spike. Until the end of May, Lincoln County in Oregon had under ten cases, now we have over 300 thanks to Pacific Seafood and the influx of irresponsible people from all over the nation and Canada. Governor Brown has called a Special Legislative Session to deal with the increase and extending help for rent, mortgage payments and other related assistance.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 17 2020 22:05 utc | 74

My fathers side of the family originally came from Minsk. I cannot describe the contempt I have for the administration of the U.S.A. in it’s efforts to ferment a regime change there.

Posted by: Beibdnn | Jun 18 2020 12:02 utc | 75

No ‘color revolution’ has brought the world closer to peace. Since the end of the Cold War they have served only to bring the planet, slowly but steadily, towards a third catastrophic global conflict.

Posted by: peter mcloughlin | Jun 18 2020 14:52 utc | 76

@ bm... not thought you would be a full on conspiracy theorist... oh well.......... how many more threads are you going to be giving these same message on??
Posted by: james | Jun 17 2020 16:36 utc | 62

@ used to post intelligent commentary.. now it's 24-7 hit and run pot shots at b... if bm doesn't like it - skip saying the same thing over and over again..
Posted by: james | Jun 17 2020 16:50 utc | 65

I am not going to engage in mudslinging, James, but what you posted is both insulting and unintelligent. Likewise your earlier missplaced assertion that I have a gripe with Bernhard, which is obviously not the case.

The mistake is entirely yours. As long as you look at the matter superficially and decline to be objective, you will continue to be deluded. But that is your problem not mine.

Let me give you a thought-experiment, James. Consider for a moment that what I have several times asserted (directly or indirectly) is true, that there is a substantive difference between the writing of articles on MoA before 2020 and after. Now, I know you would consider yourself a very loyal supporter of Bernhard. For the sake of this thought-experiment, please consider the following: Suppose that Bernhard has continued to write incisive and well-balanced MoA articles in 2020, just as in previous years. He saves those articles on his server - it doesn't matter where this server is, but it is the same server he has always used since the last time he moved it, which I think was a couple of years ago if I remember correctly. Let's just call this Server X. (Technical aside: it is certainly possible that he could be accessing Server X using its numerical address rather than its name address, therefore this would not be affected by what follows).

Suppose also that the US government - most probably NSA - has since early 2020 changed the internet name assignment of from Server X to Server Y. In other words, when any internet user anywhere in the world types "" into their browser, their prowser is directed not to the real MoA server whose nemerical address is that of Server X, but to the numerical address pointing to Server Y, NSA's spoof of MoA. Technically this is extremely simple. It has been confirmed that they do this.

Suppose also that the NSA has writers to mimic the superficial style of MoA, but perverting the message - controlled opposition. Mouthing one theme, but indirectly supporting the US agenda.

Now consider, James, how would Bernhard feel about what I have said, and how would he feel about what you had said. Would he consider you loyal, or would he consider that you had betrayed him? Remember, this is just a thought experiment. To conduct the thought experiment correctly, you have to assume that the three suppositions above are true for the purposes of the thought experiment to do otherwise is nonesense.

Imagine that Bernhard typed "" in his browser (not the numerical address of Server X), so he gets on his screen the NSA's spoof version of his article that everybody else sees, he reads the spoof version of his article, and he reads the comments. He reads numerous comments critical of the difference between recent articles (i.e. the spoof ones) and old articles (i.e. his real ones), and he knows the reason for the discrepancy. He reads my comments, and he reads your comments. Think objectively, James - who would he think is a more loyal supporter of him, Bernhard - me or you? Who would he think betrayed him in his 11th hour?

FUN FACT: According to estimates by, in the month to 20th Jan 2020 MoA had about 830,000 visits per month; this figure steadily declined month by month to estimated 450,000 by 20th May 2020. The loss estimated by Similarweb is sustained. (These are just estimates, which may or may not be accurate. Also the estimate for December 2019 was only 530,000. Similarweb only gives free statistics for the last 6 months. However in June 2019 Bernhard published the actual statistics which at that time were 25,000 per day or 750,000 per month. The cause of such a big loss? What does that say about my argument, James?)

Posted by: BM | Jun 18 2020 15:38 utc | 77

" If Poland has an interest in gaining some western parts of Belarus so Germany also can to reclaim its former territories in Western Poland.. "

I hope they try as their feminized, ill equipped army would get a bashing of a lifetime. Germany's military glory days are long gone.

Posted by: Fog of War | Jun 18 2020 15:48 utc | 78

The US is sort of hoping Russia will roll in tanks. This will really ramp up the neo-cold war as the US would respond by starting nuclear tests in earnest and rebuilding the nuclear arsenal unnecessarily.

Posted by: Bob Dobbs | Jun 18 2020 16:01 utc | 79

There seems to be about a dozen posts here asserting that b has somehow been replaced by an Illuminati pod creature, ca. Jan, 2020. Well I have seen no evidence of that at all.

The covid seems to have inspired a whole lot of the black noise.

(PSA: The real scientific truth is that wearing a mask is the very best way to avoid the covid. The masks will get much more efficient and cheaper and re-usable soon. Covid is not just a lung disease, since it weakens almost every organ. Don't be one of those people who thinks smoking cigarettes is OK!)

Posted by: blues | Jun 18 2020 18:01 utc | 80

Looks like it's high time for Mr. Lukashenko to kick all of the National Endowment for Democracy Trojan Horses out of the country before they topple him at the expense of his country's citizens and Russia as well!!

Posted by: Billosky | Jun 18 2020 18:38 utc | 81

"But to get nearer to the 'west' also has a price." I might rephrase this as, "But to get nearer to the Devil always has a price."

Posted by: be-bop | Jun 18 2020 19:32 utc | 82

@ 77 bm.. thanks for the conversation.... the biggest challenge for me is the leap in faith required to believe that someone else is writing for b, as you suggest here - "Suppose also that the NSA has writers to mimic the superficial style of MoA, but perverting the message - controlled opposition. Mouthing one theme, but indirectly supporting the US agenda." i realize it is a thought experiment but this is the part i am unable to consider in a realistic way... i am sorry if i have offended you, but it seems you've come to this position and are voicing it on a regular basis, ... and it is very hostile to b.. if you don't like what moa has become according to your view - why continue?? your comment @55 to jen - "Thanks for that Jen, the sort of detail lacking in this article." sums it up for me... instead of offering any gratitude to b for what he has shared and focused on, you use it as another opportunity to attack b..

for the sake of argument - how is b's take on covid in any way sympathetic to the usa agenda?? that is very hard to see.. i can accept b has a change of mind, or can alter his viewpoint, but in general i just don't see it the same way as you... my comment to you is really meant to challenge the repetitive nature of your angle on b that overshadows all the threads of late... instead of commenting on the articles - you regularly post- " this is not the same b".... at what point do you let go of this regular comment and move on??

as for the general observations you make off limited stats on b's site - i would have to see a longer time frame to make a comment, but i will say that from about the time of the challenge to the off guardian piece there has been an increase in the number of trolls... that seemed to really kick it off and of course it was on the topic of covid... it is almost like some people only want b to post on international affairs, but want him to not post his viewpoint and commentary on covid... that doesn't make sense to me.. it is his site after all, unless of course as you regularly imply - the site has been hijacked and there is no b in any of this anymore... frankly, i am willing to entertain it, but give it extremely low odds...

Posted by: james | Jun 18 2020 19:52 utc | 83

If the color revolution succeeds, Putin should respond with a color revolution of his own... a hundred thousand little green men securing the Donbass for Russia.

Posted by: Bobby U | Jun 18 2020 22:33 utc | 84

@ Bobby U | Jun 18 2020 22:33 utc | 84

". . . little green men . . ."

Hi -- I don't wish to be impolite, I hope you won't mind a bit of a correction. The people of Crimea, when Russia rescued them from the oncoming Ukrainian onslaught, began referring to the Russian troops as "polite green men" because of the quiet, orderly and nearly violence-free way in which they went about it.

It was snidery in the White House and the US Congress that impelled small minds in our own government to change the reference to "little green men."

I'm on a quiet campaign of my own to recapture the term that was used by the people who were affected by it.

Posted by: AntiSpin | Jun 18 2020 23:12 utc | 85

pre-emptive arrests in Belarus.

Posted by: jayc | Jun 20 2020 21:44 utc | 86

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