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“A Mask Is Not A Political Statement. It’s An IQ Test.”
The epidemic trend in the United States is grim:
Source: 91-divoc – bigger
The graphic does not yet include yesterday’s number of new cases. It was the highest ever.
U.S. hits highest single day of new coronavirus cases with more than 45,500, breaking April record – NBC News
Houston has a problem:
Texas Children’s Hospital now admitting adult patients due to COVID-19 spike in Houston – Houston Chronicle
Texas Medical Center ICUs at 97 percent capacity due to COVID-19 – Houston Culturemap
Testing is still a mess:
Weijia Jiang @weijia – 13:34 UTC · Jun 23, 2020
Just now I asked the President if he was kidding when he said he told his people to slow down testing, which is how White House officials explained the comment.
He said, “I don’t kid.”
He also said again testing is a double-edged sword, and praised the job the U.S. has done.
Arizona ‘Overwhelmed’ With Demand for Tests as U.S. System Shows Strain – NY Times
People seeking drive-up coronavirus tests in Phoenix faced a three-mile-long car line last weekend. On Friday, Arizona’s largest laboratory received twice as many samples as it could process. The phone line for testing appointments at a large site on the state fairgrounds now opens at 7 a.m. with 800 callers already in the queue.
By 7:07 a.m., all 1,000 appointments for the day are typically taken.
Yesterday Arizona had some 380 new cases per million inhabitants per day. On April 9 the outbreak in New York peaked at around 500 new cases per million inhabitants per day. But New York had been under lockdown since March 20. That stopped the outbreak. Arizona is not under lockdown.
Source: 91-divoc – bigger
Trump and some governors did not read what we predicted:
Early Lockdown Lifting Will Prolong The Greater Depression – MoA
We argued that as long as people fear to get infected they will simply not go to restaurants etc. Real data now confirms that take:
Fear of infection hurt economy more than lockdown – Boston Herald
Why Reopening Isn’t Enough To Save The Economy – NPR
Chetty and his team compare, for example, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Minnesota allowed reopening weeks before Wisconsin, but if you look at spending patterns in both states, Minnesota did not see any boost compared with Wisconsin after it reopened. “The fundamental reason that people seem to be spending less is not because of state-imposed restrictions,” Chetty said. “It’s because high-income folks are able to work remotely, are choosing to self-isolate and are being cautious given health concerns. And unless you fundamentally address that concern, I think there’s limited capacity to restart the economy.”
…
Chetty and his team conclude that the traditional tools of economic policy — tax cuts and spending increases to boost demand — won’t save the army of the unemployed. Instead, they say we need public health efforts to restore safety and convince consumers that it’s OK to start going out again. Until then, they argue, we need to extend unemployment benefits and provide assistance to help low-income workers who will continue to struggle in the pandemic economy.
There are currently some 20 million people registered as unemployed plus 11 million on pandemic unemployment assistance (PUA). There jobs will not come back unless people feel safe:
Source: Calculated Risk – bigger
Masks:
John Aravosis @aravosis – 18:13 UTC · Jun 24, 2020
Floridians angrily claiming masks are the work of the devil because “they want to throw God’s wonderful breathing system out the door.” –> video
The three ladies in the video confirm the following take:
John Lundin @johnlundin – 13:54 UTC · 24 Jun 2020
A mask is not a political statement. It’s an IQ test.
The latest Department of Labor employment data confirm that when it comes to the economy, America is two nations: red and blue. As the post-coronavirus shutdown era begins, blue states are losing jobs at record paces and red states are starting to gain them.
Here is what the data is telling us: 10 states had unemployment rates in May above 15%. They are all states with Democratic governors, with the exception of deep-blue Massachusetts with its liberal Republican governor, Charlie Baker.
Ranked from highest to lowest they are Nevada (25.3%), Hawaii (22.6%), Michigan (21.2%), California (16.3%), Rhode Island (16.3%), Massachusetts (16.3%), Delaware (15.8%), Illinois (15.2%), New Jersey (15.2%), Washington (15.1%).
The five states with the lowest unemployment rates are all red states – most of which never shut down at all. These are Nebraska (5.2%), Utah (8.5 %), Wyoming (8.8%), Arizona (8.9%), and Idaho (8.9%).
This is exactly as Arthur Laffer and I predicted in a study we conducted back in March on the economic effects of lockdowns. States with very strict business shutdown and stay-at-home orders would be facing a much tougher recovery period than states that never shut down, like Utah and Wyoming, and states that rapidly reopened, such as Arizona. This would be a bifurcated red state, blue state recovery – and so it is, so far.
This is not a coronavirus recession. It is a blue state lockdown recession. Democrats say they have shut down their economies to maintain the safety of their citizens. But that is a stretch. Studies are now finding that the negative health effects from the lockdown (suicide, delayed treatments for cancer and heart problems, depression, spousal abuse, alcohol and drug overdoses, to name a few) could easily match the saving of lives from lockdowns.
But there is a much bigger problem with this argument. It is factually untrue that blue states did a better job than red states in keeping their citizens safe. They didn’t. The 10 states with the highest death rates from coronavirus (as a percentage of the state population) are all states with Democratic governors. A blue state resident was twice as likely to die from the virus as a red state resident even though the red states were not heavy-handed in locking down their economies. (Population density likely factored in as well.)
The tragedy for blue state America is that these states – especially in the Northeast and Midwest – were already seeing major outmigration of families, businesses, and capital before the pandemic. The blue state governors’ mishandling of the crisis has only put these states in deeper holes.
Of course, the Democrats are now saying that the caseloads are climbing in the red states. That’s true, but caseloads don’t tell us much of anything. If going outside and gathering in public while ignoring social distancing orders is the reason for the increase in cases (and in some cases hospitalization rates) then we would expect to see a surge in cases in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Portland, Seattle, Minneapolis, and Washington, D.C. That is where the largest, and most prolonged, George Floyd protests took place.
So the blue states have not only failed to keep their citizens safe, they’ve ruined their economies as well.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/06/24/the_blue_state_jobs_depression_143522.html
Posted by: SwissArmyMan | Jun 26 2020 2:21 utc | 109
Indeed. If you “believe” in masks, you failed the test. Many European countries have ended lockdowns without masks, and yet covid is fizzling out. — Clincher at 1
“The virus molecules are so small, masks don’t matter” — Skip at 9, his son’s statement.
Let’s not politisise, as the Science made public is an abysmal mess.
Quote 1 is true of Switzerland. Mask wearing went from 1% (Asian tourists, my invented no.) in early March to maybe at most 20% in public *my obs* at peak. Lockdown (mid March with first stage opening June) was incredibly rigorous and well or obsessively followed, without policing / penalties, etc. COV19 is gone for all practical purposes (see worldometer etc.) CH Gvmt. never obliged / enforced masks, with a few exceptions: hairdressers, podiatrists, nail salons, dentists for the dentist but not the patient, opticians, doctors, etc. after re-opening those biz. – situations where very close contact is involved. Other bodies, e.g. public transport in GE canton, could only ‘advise’ mask wearing.
CH Federal advice was based on research on the efficiency of masks. Here is a meta-study that shows that they – in the title – ‘don’t work.’
https://www.dropbox.com/s/w5eojbzj13zbnyd/COVID-19_Rancourt-Masks-dont-work-review-science-re-COVID19-policy.pdf?dl=0
This does not mean that strong correlations between mask-wearing and eliminating COV19, or reducing, lowering its spread, don’t exist.
article re. one of the better studies:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200612172200.htm
Wearing a mask does not guarantee blocking transmission as ‘masks don’t work’ – but may actually physically cut spread, by how much is unknown, and even a sorta partial protection is +++ in this situation, specially if easy and cheap.
Trying to think of a similar ex., —> wearing a seat-belt is the best I can do right now – does it eliminate road deaths? No, does it save lives, Yes, Could more be done, Yes, e.g. a 50km speed limit, or banning cars completely. Many other complex societal issues play a role (commuting kms., car culture, state of the roads, eye-tests, etc.) I didn’t want to get into condoms, would be a better ex.
One intruiging question here is the large difference between M / F cases in veil-wearing countries, e.g. KSA. Cases are far lower for women in these countries, about a third only, some claim they are not tested as ‘inferiors’, hmmm. Something to look at. — In much of the W, there are more F cases (not deaths) under 60, as they tend to have more low level ‘contact’ smily jobs, e.g. supermarket cashier, receptionist, nurse, cleaner..
Other factors play a role: mask-wearing may be associated with, in no order: awareness of the infection, hygiene care taken, such as hand-washing, disinfecting, cleaning up, taking off shoes, meeting outside, etc.; following social distancing; not going out much no partying (fear..); living in a culture that is ‘obedient’; and much more.
The mask-wearing issue is fulfilling divide to conquer strategies which one shouldn’t embrace.
Posted by: Noirette | Jun 26 2020 18:36 utc | 189
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