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Boris Johnson’s Government Hides Covid-19 Data That Is Needed To Control New Local Outbreaks
Britain has had quite a problem with the Covid-19 epidemic. The coronavirus travails of Boris Johnson did not help. The countrywide lockdown came too late and had therefore stay on longer than elsewhere. In April 2020 monthly gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 20.4%. So far England and Wales have had some 50,000 death from the coronavirus. Scotland registered some 2,500 death and North Ireland some 550.
After the long lockdown the number of death per day has normalized. The data from the Office for National Statistics shows that no more excess death occur.
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That is good news but there are still very bad surprises.
The British government is still hiding information on Covid-19 testing results. It is not even sure how large the current reproduction rate of the epidemic is. This at a time when people, businesses and local administrations need such data as guidance on how much they have to limit their contacts to keep the epidemic under control.
Cont. reading: Boris Johnson’s Government Hides Covid-19 Data That Is Needed To Control New Local Outbreaks
The MoA Week In Review – Open Thread 2020-51
Last week’s posts at Moon of Alabama:
Prof Francois Balloux @BallouxFrancois – 20:26 UTC · Jun 27, 2020
Newspaper headlines from the the 1918/19 influenza pandemic. A furious debate about masks raged throughout the 1918/19 winter in San Francisco, with arguments essentially indistinguishable from those populating my Twitter feed
(for more info see: influenzaarchive.org/cities/city-sanfrancisco)
> The New York Times publication that Russia allegedly offered secretly bounties to Afghan militants for killing coalition forces was fabricated by the US intelligence agencies, Russia’s Foreign Ministry told TASS on Saturday.
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The Russian Foreign Ministry pointed to US intelligence agencies’ involvement in Afghan drug trafficking.
“Should we speak about facts – moreover, well-known [facts], it has not long been a secret in Afghanistan that members of the US intelligence community are involved in drug trafficking, cash payments to militants for letting transport convoys pass through, kickbacks from contracts implementing various projects paid by American taxpayers. The list of their actions can be continued if you want,” the ministry said.
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“We can understand their feelings as they do not want to be deprived of the above mentioned sources of the off-the-books income,” the ministry stressed. <
Office of the DNI @ODNIgov – 3:19 UTC · 28 Jun 2020
Statement by DNI Ratcliffe: “I have confirmed that neither the President nor the Vice President were ever briefed on any intelligence alleged by the New York Times in its reporting yesterday.” (1/2)
“The White House statement addressing this issue earlier today, which denied such a briefing occurred, was accurate. The New York Times reporting, and all other subsequent news reports about such an alleged briefing are inaccurate.” (2/2)
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – Open Thread 2020-51
To Keep Russiagate Alive ‘Officials’ Make New Claims Without Providing Evidence
There were allegations about emails that someone exfiltrated from the DNC and provided to Wikileaks. Russia must have done it. The FBI and other intelligence services were all over it. In the end no evidence was provided to support the claims.
There were allegations that Trump did not really win the elections. Russia must have done it. The various U.S. intelligence service, together with their British friends, provided all kinds of sinister leaks about the alleged case. In the end no evidence was provided to support the claims.
A British double agent, Sergej Skirpal, was allegedly injured in a Russian attack on him. The intelligence services told all kind of contradicting nonsense about the case. In the end no evidence was provided to support the claims.
All three cases had two points in common. The were based on sources near to the U.S. and British intelligence community. They were designed to increase hostility against Russia. The last point was then used to sabotage Donald Trump’s original plans for better relations with Russia.
Now the intelligence services make another claim that fits right into the above scheme.
Reporters from the New York Times and the Washington Post were called up by unnamed ‘officials’ and told to write that Russia pays some Afghans to kill U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. There is zero evidence that the claim is true. The Taliban spokesman denies it. The numbers of U.S. soldiers killed in Afghanistan is minimal. The alleged sources of the claims are criminals the U.S. has taken as prisoners in Afghanistan.
All that nonsense is again used to press against Trump’s wish for better relations with Russia. Imagine – Trump was told about these nonsensical claims and he did nothing about it!
The same intelligence services and ‘officials’ previously paid bounties to bring innocent prisoners to Guantanamo Bay, tortured them until they made false confessions and lied about it. The same intelligence services and ‘officials’ lied about WMD in Iraq. The same ‘intelligence officials’ paid and pay Jihadis disguised as ‘Syrian rebels’ to kill Russian and Syrian troops which defend their countries.
The journalistic standards at the New York Times and Washington Post must be below zero to publish such nonsense without requesting real evidence. The press release like stories below from anti-Trump/anti-Russian sources have nothing to do with ‘great reporting‘ but are pure stenography.
The New York Times:
Cont. reading: To Keep Russiagate Alive ‘Officials’ Make New Claims Without Providing Evidence
Deutsche Lufthansa Deal Shows How Bailouts Should Be Done
The corona pandemic has brought many companies to the brink of bankruptcy. Some can and should be saved by the government.
Lufthansa, the 94 years old Germany airline, just made a deal with the German government that shows how this should be done.
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Yesterday the shareholders of Lufthansa voted to accept the government bailout:
Cont. reading: Deutsche Lufthansa Deal Shows How Bailouts Should Be Done
“A Mask Is Not A Political Statement. It’s An IQ Test.”
Open Thread 2020-50
Pompeo’s UN Move Against Iran Will Fail. Why Is He Still Pressing It?
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is pushing at the United Nations to prolong the arms embargo against Iran. Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which solved the issue of Iran’s civil nuclear program, the current arms embargo will be lifted in October.
The U.S., which has left the JCPoA agreement, is using nonsensical arguments to force a renewed embargo. Other UN Security Council veto veto members will obviously reject the move. Pompeo’s actions do not have the purpose to achieve something. They are campaign material targeted at a domestic audience.
Part of Pompeo’s campaign is a push of ‘scary Iran’ propaganda.
Here is one example:
Secretary Pompeo @SecPompeo – 16:59 UTC · Jun 23, 2020
If the @UN Arms Embargo on Iran expires in October, Iran will be able to buy new fighter aircraft like Russia’s SU-30 and China’s J-10. With these highly lethal aircraft, Europe and Asia could be in Iran’s crosshairs. The U.S. will never let this happen.
The tweet came with an attached map that shows the maximum distance the planes Iran might buy can fly at cruise altitude until they run out of gas.
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Pompeo is suggesting that Iran will spend tens of millions on planes, fly them unopposed through the radar coverage of several countries, to let Iranian Kamikaze pilots crash them into some temple in Nepal.
This does not make any sense. No foreign politician will be impressed by this ‘argument’. Pompeo’s tweet is for consumption at home.
At the UN the U.S. is trying to get a new arms embargo resolution against Iran:
Cont. reading: Pompeo’s UN Move Against Iran Will Fail. Why Is He Still Pressing It?
Egypt Is Facing Two Wars – How Will Sisi Decide?
By next month Egypt will probably be fighting two wars.
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The war to its west would be against Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) which threatens to extend itself from west Libya to the Egyptian border. The war to its south would be against Ethiopia which will soon start to fill its Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) with Nil water that Egypt needs to survive.
The GNA in Libya, supported by Turkey and Qatar, wants to move out of its Tripoli and Misrata area to take Sirte and the oil installations east of it. Sirte is currently held by the Libyan National Army (LNA) under General Haftar.
Cont. reading: Egypt Is Facing Two Wars – How Will Sisi Decide?
Arms Control Diplomacy Used To Be Serious – It Has Been Replaced With Stupid Stunts
Talks between Russia and the United States about the renewal of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty began today. The New START treaty limits the number of nuclear capable platforms each side can deploy.
The U.S. says it wants to bring China into the negotiations. We explained at length why that does not make sense and why it is thereby not going to happen:
Russia and the U.S. both have some 6,000+ nuclear warheads. The New START Treaty between the U.S. and Russia limits the numbers of platforms – missiles, bombers and submarines – that each side can use to launch strategic nuclear weapons to some 1,400. China has less than 300 nuclear warheads and even fewer platforms from which those could be launched. The U.S. claims that China will double the number of its warheads and platforms during the next ten years but there is again zero evidence to support that claim.
Why should China, with less nuclear capabilities than France and Britain, join a treaty that would limit is meager capabilities when the U.S. and Russia both have more than twenty times its numbers. That makes no sense at all.
Marshall Billingslea, the current nominee to be Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs, is leading the U.S. delegation at today’s meeting in Vienna. The man is a kind of loose cannon:
“Spending the adversary into oblivion”, as Billingslea’s threatened, is also rumored to have a certain cost. It is quite doubtful that the U.S. is capable or willing to finance that.
Billingslea is by the way a dangerous nutter. During the Bush administration he was Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict and the civilian responsible for the war on terror and torture regime conducted by U.S. special operation forces.
If he believes that torture can help to fight terrorism, or that nuclear tests can further arms control negotiations, he might also believe that unrealistic threats of an arms race can push China into a treaty it does not want. In reality neither will work.
Today Billingslea staged this dumb act:
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Cont. reading: Arms Control Diplomacy Used To Be Serious – It Has Been Replaced With Stupid Stunts
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The MoA Week In Review – Open Thread 2020-49
Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:
> Prime Minister Narendra Modi categorically said on Friday that neither has anyone entered Indian territory, nor is anyone present in Indian territory currently, and nor is any Indian post captured.
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“Neither has anyone entered our territory, nor is anyone still there, nor is any of our posts under anyone’s capture. In Ladakh, our 20 jawans got martyred. But they taught a lesson to those who were eyeing Indian territory,” he said at an all-party meeting called to discuss the India-China border situation. <
> At a campaign rally in Tulsa Oklahoma, Trump said Saturday he has told his administration to slow down virus testing. He said the United States has tested 25 million people, but the “bad part” is that it found more cases.
“When you do testing to that extent, you’re going to find more people, you’re going to find more cases,” Trump said. “So I said to my people, ‘Slow the testing down, please.’″ <
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Other issues:
Cont. reading: The MoA Week In Review – Open Thread 2020-49
Putin On World War II
Due to decades of Hollywood propaganda many people in "western" countries believe that the U.S. did the most to defeat the Nazis during World War II.
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Nothing could be further from the truth.
The President of Russia Vladimir Putin has taken the opportunity of the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II to describe the build-up to the war, the diplomatic and military considerations Russia took into account during that time, and the results of the allies' victory.
His essay was published in multiple languages on the Website of the Kremlin:
75th Anniversary of the Great Victory: Shared Responsibility to History and our Future.
The English version is also published in the National Interest magazine:
Vladimir Putin: The Real Lessons of the 75th Anniversary of World War II.
The part with the Russian view of the behavior of various nation in the late 1930s is most interesting. But this passage, related to the graphic above, is also very relevant:
The Soviet Union and the Red Army, no matter what anyone is trying to prove today, made the main and crucial contribution to the defeat of Nazism.
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This is a report of February 1945 on reparation from Germany by the Allied Commission on Reparations headed by Ivan Maisky. The Commission's task was to define a formula according to which defeated Germany would have to pay for the damages sustained by the victor powers. The Commission concluded that “the number of soldier-days spent by Germany on the Soviet front is at least 10 times higher than on all other allied fronts. The Soviet front also had to handle four-fifths of German tanks and about two-thirds of German aircraft.” On the whole, the USSR accounted for about 75 percent of all military efforts undertaken by the Anti-Hitler Coalition. During the war period, the Red Army “ground up” 626 divisions of the Axis states, of which 508 were German.
On April 28, 1942, Franklin D. Roosevelt said in his address to the American nation: “These Russian forces have destroyed and are destroying more armed power of our enemies – troops, planes, tanks, and guns – than all the other United Nations put together.” Winston Churchill in his message to Joseph Stalin of September 27, 1944, wrote that “it is the Russian army that tore the guts out of the German military machine…”
Such an assessment has resonated throughout the world. Because these words are the great truth, which no one doubted then. Almost 27 million Soviet citizens lost their lives on the fronts, in German prisons, starved to death and were bombed, died in ghettos and furnaces of the Nazi death camps. The USSR lost one in seven of its citizens, the UK lost one in 127, and the USA lost one in 320.
As a German and former officer who has read quite a bit about the war I agree with the Russian view. It was the little acknowledged industrial power of the Soviet Union and the remarkable dedication of the Red Army soldiers that defeated the German Wehrmacht.
At the end of his essay Putin defends the veto power of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. In his view it has prevented another clash on a global scale from happening since World War II ended. Putin rejects attempts to abolish that system.
I have found no major flaw with the historic facts in the essay and recommend to read it in full.
Coronavirus – The U.S. Has Given Up
The difference between The U.S. and the EU is pretty stark. The U.S. has obviously given up on getting the epidemic under control.
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The population of the U.S. is 328 million. The population of the EU is one third bigger at 446 million.
In Europe there is a wide discussion of the measures that can be taken to avoid a second wave during the next winter season.
Some of the states in the U.S. are still in the uptick phase of their first wave. Some even have an increasing gradient.
The hospitals in some of these states will soon run into serious trouble. Their case fatality rates will then tick up.
The recent demonstrations and wide re-openings in most states make it likely that the number of daily new cases will rise further and will exceed the previous total of some 32,000 new cases per day.
What amazes me is the culture war about mask wearing.
The theater chain AMC plans to reopen:
AMC will not mandate that all guests wear masks, although employees will be required to do so.
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“We did not want to be drawn into a political controversy,” said Aron. “We thought it might be counterproductive if we forced mask wearing on those people who believe strongly that it is not necessary. We think that the vast majority of AMC guests will be wearing masks.
The primary function of a mask is not to protect the person who wears it, but to protect the other persons who are around.
Theaters are closed rooms in which people sit together for a longer time in often somewhat sticky air. Like churches they are prime location for potential super-spreader events. One infected person who does not wear a mask in a theater can infect many other attendants, even if they do wear masks.
If AMC does not make mask wearing mandatory and ensures that the rule is followed throughout the show one can only recommend not visiting their theaters. From a marketing perspective AMC's policy is self defeating. AMC will end up with empty theaters.
Why The Chinese-Indian Skirmishes May Escalate
On Monday night a fight between Indian and Chinese soldiers cost several dozen lives:
Twenty Indian Army personnel, including a commanding officer (CO), were killed in a fierce clash with Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh on Monday night, the biggest military confrontation in over five decades that has significantly escalated the already volatile border standoff in the region.
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Government sources said the Chinese side too suffered "proportionate casualties" but chose not to speculate on the number. An ANI source has speculated that at least 43 Chinese soldiers have been seriously injured or killed in the clash.
Both sides have agreed to not use guns along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between the two countries. The soldiers used clubs and stones to fight each other during the night on a mountain ridge at 4,000 meter (14,000ft) height above the steep canyon of a very cold river. Apparently many of the dead fell off the ridge down into the river and died of hypothermia.
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Minor clashes in the area over the historically ill defined and disputed border have been ongoing since April. The immediate reason seems to be a new military access road that India has built towards the LAC and more aggressive patrolling on both sides. But the strategic reasons behind these clashes loom much larger.
First a reminder of the area's history:
Cont. reading: Why The Chinese-Indian Skirmishes May Escalate
John Bolton Opines: “Quod licet bovi, non licet Iovi”
The New York Times was given a preview copy of the memoir John Bolton has written about his time as National Security Advisor under Trump.
Its piece about the book includes a curious contradiction.
This is how the NYT writer characterizes Bolton's time in the Donald Trump White House:
Mr. Bolton sought to use his 17 months in the White House to accomplish policy goals that were important to him, like withdrawing the United States from a host of international agreements he considers flawed, like the Iran nuclear accord, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and others.
Now compare that this quote from Bolton's book further down in the piece:
“A president may not misuse the national government’s legitimate powers by defining his own personal interest as synonymous with the national interest, or by inventing pretexts to mask the pursuit of personal interest under the guide of national interest,” Mr. Bolton writes.
While the NYT seems not to be troubled at all that Bolton pursued "policy goals that were important to him" it emphasizes Bolton's critique that Trump does the very same.
Apparently Quod licet Iovi, non licet bovi has been turned into its opposite.
Open Thread 2020-48
Belarus – A U.S. Sponsored Color Revolution Is Underway
U.S engineered attempts to overthrow a foreign government by stirring civil unrest are usually named after a color or, at times, a flower. Thus we had an "rose revolution" in Georgia, a "green movement" in Iran and an "orange revolution" in the Ukraine.
But now the CIA and its assortment of supporting organizations seems to have run out of color choices. How else can one explain that their latest attempt in Belarus is called a "slipper revolution"?
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No, the Guardian, which published the 'Slipper revolution' headline today but later changed it, did not come up with that stupid moniker by itself.
The U.S. State Department funded Belsat.eu TV station was the first to mention slippers in a picture caption on May 31.
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On June 6 the U.S. government funded RFE/RL was the first to use it in a headline.
Cont. reading: Belarus – A U.S. Sponsored Color Revolution Is Underway
Harry Harris – Insubordinate U.S. Ambo To South Korea – Soon To Be Fired
On Friday the U.S. embassy in Seoul hung up a large 'Black Lives Matter' banner and posted a tweet about it:
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U.S. Embassy Seoul – @USEmbassySeoul – 22:04 UTC · Jun 12, 2020
The U.S. Embassy stands in solidarity with fellow Americans grieving and peacefully protesting to demand positive change. Our #BlackLivesMatter banner shows our support for the fight against racial injustice and police brutality as we strive to be a more inclusive & just society.
When I first saw that tweet on Saturday I wondered how long the banner would stay up. It was clear that the White House would be miffed about it as the banner and the tweet were running against Trump's election tactic of raising tensions.
Today the banner was taken down:
Cont. reading: Harry Harris – Insubordinate U.S. Ambo To South Korea – Soon To Be Fired
The MoA Week In Review – Open Thread 2020-47
Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:
> Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. <
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Other issues:
Economy:
A Crash in the Dollar Is Coming – Stephen Roach / Bloomberg
"The Stock Market Is Deluding Itself" – Nouriel Roubini / Spiegel
Censorship:
Narrative Control Operations Escalate As America Burns – Caitlin Johnstone
PayPal have banned the words “Syria”, “Iran” and “Palestine” in all transaction messages. Payments fall ‘under review’.
Today Twitter announced the takedown of 7,340 accounts linked to the youth wing of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkey’s ruling party 🇹🇷. My SIO team, w/ @akis_alp, @makrevis, @JoshAGoldstein, and Katie Jonsson, analyzed the network
Twitter partnered with ASPI—a think tank funded by the US military—to ban 170k accounts run by real Chinese people for writing in Chinese, praising China's COVID response, or criticizing the HK protests.
This is the "free speech" & "democracy" that the US wants to export abroad.
This is incredibly alarming. Twitter says the accounts were "spreading geopolitical narratives favorable to the Communist Party of China", such as praising China's response to COVID-19, along with "antagonizing" the US and Hong Kong's protests. Only anti-China views allowed!
The censors at @Facebook are systematically erasing the accounts of Palestinian journalists and photographers: electronicintifada.net/content/facebo…
Facebook should be nationalized then immediately shut down, IMO. Far too much power.
Fun:
Suggested Slogans for the Biden Campaign – New Yorker
Use as open thread …
This Isn’t A Way To Defeat Trump
At Counterpunch Professor David Schultz sees a final fracturing of the Democratic party, labor, and civil rights coalition:
George Floyd being killed by a police officer in Minneapolis is not simply about the death of one Black man. His death also killed an historic but uneasy alliance among the Democratic Party, labor unions, and the civil rights movement. The reaction to his death is ending the last vestiges of the historic New Deal coalition that defined progressive politics in American for at least 50 years, ushering in an era where it now appears that the Democratic Party and the civil rights community are at odds with labor and unions.
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What was the last time these posturing millionaires with political power have done something for the working class?
The 'autonomous zone' in Seattle seems to be run by 'Black Lives Matter':
They come from a variety of groups and interests, ranging from Black Lives Matter organizers to labor and neighborhood groups. Most want the police precinct to be turned into a community center and much of the department’s funding to be redirected to health and social services.
“What you see out here is people coming together and loving each other,” said Mark Henry Jr. of Black Lives Matter. “I see people coming from different walks of life … learning from each other.”
The zone was set up after the police left the Capitol Hill precinct.
Police Chief Carmen Best said the decision to leave the Capitol Hill precinct wasn’t hers and she was angry about it.
So who told the police to leave the precinct?
Pepe Escobar suspects that the Democrats are using the 'autonomous zone' as a 'color revolution' method to contrast themselves to Donald Trump:
Capital Hill Autonomous Zone (CHAZ) is supported by the city of Seattle – run by a Democrat – which is supported by the governor of Washington State, also a Democrat.
There’s no chance Washington State will use the National Guard to crush CHAZ. And Trump cannot take over Washington State National Guard without the approval of the governor, even though he has tweeted, “Take back your city NOW. If you don’t do it, I will. This is not a game.”
It’s enlightening to observe that “counter-insurgency” can be applied in Afghanistan and the tribal areas; to occupy Iraq; to protect the looting of oil/gas in eastern Syria. But not at home. Even if 58% of Americans would actually support it: for many among them, the Commune may be as bad if not worse than looting.
But then there are those firmly opposed. Among them: the “Butcher of Fallujah” Mad Dog Mattis; color revolution practitioners NED; Nike; JP Morgan; the whole Democratic Party establishment; and virtually the whole U.S. Army establishment.
Escobar points out that 'Black Lives Matter' as an organization has no real political program at least when compared to the movements of the 1960s. It is fed by corporate money and the Ford foundation. The Donate button on its web page goes to Act Blue, a Democrat donation collection service which also works for the Sanders and Biden campaigns.
Do the Democrats believe that they can win the election with such a 'strategy of tension' against a 'law and order' Trump?
If so they are making a huge mistake.
The 'silent majority' that voted for Nixon will also vote for Trump.
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