Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 11, 2020

The Novel Coronavirus Went Global In November - Or Maybe Even Much Earlier?

The first wide outbreak of the Covid-19 disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus was identified in late December 2019 in Wuhan, China. But recent reports suggest that the virus circulated much earlier, and not only in China, than was previously known.

It is known that the virus is genetically ~96% similar to a virus that currently occurs in bats in south China. The genome of the virus has a length of 30,000 nucleic acids. A 4% is difference suggest that 1.200 must have changed through mutations, recombination and natural selection for the differences to evolve.  Experts estimate that it took 20 to 70 years for the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its relative in bats to develop from a common ancestor. The development of SARS-CoV-2 likely did not take place within bats but in some animal which has an organism more similar to the human one. The German virologists Christian Drosten, who is an acknowledged expert in coronaviruses, has suggested raccoon dogs as a possible intermediate host.

The genome sequences of the viruses show slight mutations which can evolve with each imperfect replication. The mutations usually do not change the functioning of the virus but they can be used to build a genealogical tree of the virus. Researchers have shown that the first known case in Washington State probably came directly from Wuhan while the prevalent virus types in New York are similar to ones previously seen in Europe and likely came from there.

Such analyses point to Wuhan as the source of the current outbreak and to October as the time of the first jump from an animal to a human. But the data is naturally incomplete, only relatively few occurrences of the viruses get sequenced, and there may be previous mutations no one is yet aware of.

China is still trying to find the first person in China that carried the virus. Old blood samples and radiographic chest pictures of previous pneumonia cases are now being retested and reviewed to find earlier cases.

The South China Morning Post says that earliest known Chinese patient one fell ill on November 17:

According to the government data seen by the Post, a 55 year-old from Hubei province could have been the first person to have contracted Covid-19 on November 17.

From that date onwards, one to five new cases were reported each day. By December 15, the total number of infections stood at 27 – the first double-digit daily rise was reported on December 17 – and by December 20, the total number of confirmed cases had reached 60.

In late December doctors in Wuhan connected six cases of pneunomia which had similar rare progression of the disease and concluded that there was a new bug in town. After it was established that the disease was caused by a new virus a systematic look for earlier occurrences was launched. It is not at all astonishing that previously unrecognized cases were found.

But it was not only in Wuhan that earlier cases were found.

Anecdotal evidence from Bergamo, Italy, that was ravaged by the virus in February, strongly suggests earlier cases:

A “strange pneumonia” was circulating in northern Italy as long ago as November, weeks before doctors were made aware of the novel coronavirus outbreak in China, one of the European country’s leading medical experts said this week.

“They [general practitioners] remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November,” Giuseppe Remuzzi, the director of the Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research in Milan, said in an interview with the National Public Radio of the United States.

“This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China.”

France recently also reported a case in November:

Covid-19 cases in France can be dated back to as early as November 16, nearly 10 weeks before the country’s first confirmed cases of the disease were thought to have occurred, according to a French hospital.

The November case was identified by the hospital’s medical imaging department after carrying out a retrospective study on about 2,500 chest scans performed between November 1 and April 30.
...
In France, some cases were already in circulation in November, said Michel Schmitt, chief doctor of the medical imaging department at Albert Schweitzer Hospital in the town of Colmar in Alsace, near the border with Germany.
...
“[There was a] very slow progression of the pathology’s negative impact until the end of February, then a rapid increase in its impact, peaking on March 31.”

A chest scan that shows a widespread 'ground glass opacity' is typical for Covid-19 patients and differs significantly from scans of typical pneumonia patients.

But archived chest scans are not the only signs that the disease has occurred in a former patient. Subsequent blood tests for antibodies can identify patients who recovered from the disease. That apparently happened in New Jersey:

The mayor of Belleville is making a startling yet uncorroborated claim that he contracted the coronavirus in New Jersey in November, two months before the first confirmed U.S. case in Washington State.

Mayor Michael Melham said he recently asked his doctor, days after a routine physical, to test his blood for COVID-19 antibodies — and got a positive finding on Wednesday.
...
He recounted becoming ill while in Atlantic City attending the New Jersey League of Municipalities Conference.

“I was definitely feeling sick when I was there, and fought my way through it," he told NJ Advance Media on Thursday.

After returning home Nov. 21 from the convention, Melham said a doctor diagnosed his worsening symptoms — including a 102-degree fever, chills, hallucinations and a sore throat that ended up lasting for three weeks — as a bad case of the flu.

“I have never been sicker in my entire life,” Melham said, though he acknowledged that he did not have the respiratory problems often associated with the coronavirus.

In a phone interview, Melham conceded he does not know he had the coronavirus.

“Nobody can be sure,” he said.

“But I am nearly certain, for two reasons: I have never been that gravely ill in my adult life, and the antibodies that I have are the longer-term ones, not the most recent ones,” he said.

His test result showed the IgG antibody, which according to Science News lasts longer than the IgM antibody that typically is produced about a week after infection.

Melham said he has done no traveling in recent months, other than a late-January trip to Puerto Rico. He lives alone.

The symptoms the mayor describes, especially the hallucinations which are uncommon in patients with a flu, fit those of a 'mild' case of Covid-19. And while the quick blood tests can have some false positives they only rarely react on antibodies to other viruses. Some enterprising researcher will hopefully ask the mayor for another blood sample and use a more specific laboratory test to give a definitive judgment of the case.

The above show likely and definitely mid-November occurrences of Covid-19 in China, Italy, France and the United States. More such findings from elsewhere are likely to come up in the near future.

That the virus had traveled so far back in November means that it must have been around for much longer than anticipated.

A conspiracy theory by one George Webb had suggested that a U.S. soldiers, Sergeant Maatje Benassi, carried the virus to the Military World Games in Wuhan and had spread it there. The claim has been debunked and in the text below his original video Webb, who is known to peddle disinformation, retracted it while spinning a new conspiracy theory:

I am officially retracting my earlier reporting that Maatje Benassi tested positive for CoronaVirus. I realize now I was being fed bad information to entrap me ...

The Military World Games in Wuhan ended on October 27. It is unlikely that the virus spread from there to come up just two weeks later in completely unrelated persons in four different countries.

One will probably have to go back further to find possible first outbreaks. This July 2019 cluster of pneumonia of unknown cause in Fairfax County now looks awfully suspicious:

A third person has died following an outbreak of respiratory illness at a Fairfax County assisted-living facility that began more than two weeks ago, county health officials said Wednesday.

The outbreak at Greenspring Village in Springfield also spread to the unit’s staff, affecting 19 employees, Fairfax County Health Department officials said.

At a news conference Wednesday at the agency’s headquarters, Benjamin Schwartz, director of epidemiology and population health at the Fairfax County Health Department, said tests, including those conducted on 17 samples by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, have failed to identify a likely cause. Tests for Legionnaires’ disease have also come up negative. Officials tested for a range of common virus- or bacteria-borne respiratory illnesses.
...
[In a] notice that went out on July 10 from Donna L. Epps, an administrator at Greenspring, said several residents had been having symptoms of respiratory illness, including fever, coughing and body aches. Epps’s notice, which says the symptoms recede in about five to seven days with treatment but have caused pneumonia, also announced limits on visitors, enhanced sanitation measures and other steps.
...
Late Tuesday, the Health Department gave an updated tally, saying 63 people in the assisted-living and skilled-nursing unit have become sick. The agency said there have been no new hospitalizations since 23 people were admitted after the outbreak began June 30. The agency was alerted to the outbreak on July 8.

Greenspring Village has high ratings and is expensive. They presumably have qualified staff. They isolated early and thereby probably prevented a further spread. The symptoms and the timing of the disease fit to a Covid-19 diagnosis and the patients tested negative for all other known causes. One hopes that the chest scans from the pneumonia patients still exist and can be used to make a definite judgment.

Who the first human was who carried the virus and where it was infected is still unknown. That the virus was first detected in Wuhan does not mean that it originated there. Th experts agree that the virus evolved naturally. The epidemic was certainly not caused by someone who recently ate a bat. It is likely unrelated to the 'wet' farmers market where a cluster of early patients came from. While the virus was definitely spreading there in December it is unlikely that the market is the original place where the virus moved from an animal to a human.

The appearance of cases in November in different global regions points to a much earlier first infection than previously assumed. All the early accusations against China have now shown to be as false as the promotion of the useless but potentially dangerous Hydroxychloroquine as a therapy for Covid-19.

Posted by b on May 11, 2020 at 18:35 UTC | Permalink

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That is why the earlier lauding of the Intelligence Community Statement here https://twitter.com/ODNIgov/status/1255868108356681728 on the basis that it said the virus was not manmade nor genetically modified, was so dangerous; it appeared countervail the harshest China critique. But what that Statement also did was, tenuously and without providing any evidence, flatly assert that the "COVID-19 virus originated in China". I cautioned against embracing this IC Statement in a comment to the article of May 1st.

Posted by: bjd | May 11 2020 18:50 utc | 1

Obviously there's still far too little information to make any definite conclusions about the exact origins of the virus. However, There was a big hullabaloo in the US last fall about aggressive cases of influenza that the media kept blaming on the vaping crazy. I remember thinking at that time why was there such a fuss about vaping when plane old regular cigarettes were still killings tens of thousands per year vs a few dozen deaths caused by vaping. I don't support vaping, it just seemed to me that the media attention was overblown given the number of deaths involved, maybe the crumbling US health services tried to conceal the early outbreak of the virus in the US by blaming the unusual number of influenza deaths on vaping.

Posted by: Kadath | May 11 2020 19:05 utc | 2

Very interesting, as always. Fairfax County, hmmm? Pretty close to the center, that.

Re the dig at hydroxychloroquine at the end, from the link:

"In this observational study involving patients with Covid-19 who had been admitted to the hospital, hydroxychloroquine administration was not associated with either a greatly lowered or an increased risk of the composite end point of intubation or death. Randomized, controlled trials of hydroxychloroquine in patients with Covid-19 are needed."

While, AS ADMINISTERED in this experiment, the medicine did not appear to help, that certainly does not prove that the medicine is not beneficial (1) earlier in the disease phase or (2) in combination treatments such as the version tried in France (with an antibiotic) and with zinc.

I think the jury is still out on this one. But the answer should be out soon, as there are trials going on all over the place.

Posted by: Caliman | May 11 2020 19:26 utc | 3

I posted about Bergamo and Brescia v. complicated maybe more later.

Springfield, an old ppls home, btw, is a favorite ‘Outbreak’ quoted by the Chinese, Russians and others. (Another old ppl home nearby was also affected.)

==========

"Symptoms typically develop over a period of days but sometimes can manifest over several weeks. Many cases, patients reported a gradual start of symptoms, including: breathing difficulty, shortness of breath, and/or chest pain before hospitalization. (….) patients have experienced respiratory symptoms (cough, shortness of breath, or chest pain), and some have also experienced gastrointestinal symptoms (nausea, vomiting, or diarrhea) or non-specific symptoms (fatigue, fever, or weight loss). (…) Fever, elevated heart rate, and elevated white blood cell count have been reported, even though no infectious disease has been identified.

Many patients have required medical treatment with supplemental oxygen. Some required assisted ventilation. Some patients have been treated with corticosteroids with demonstrated improvement. Evidence does not suggest an infectious disease is the cause of the severe pulmonary disease.

(….)

On September 12, 2019 the CDC no longer reported possible cases. The CDC changed its reporting methodology…”

———————————

The Vaping Lung Illness, first cases Illinois, Wisconsin April 2019. 2,799 hospitalised and 60 deaths. Reporting dropped in Sept. 2019.

Nothing has been reported about it since, despite so called inquiries to be launched. How this came about idk, maybe many had atypical pneumonia, and if ‘vaping’ were immediately considered as having a clear cause. (It was a category at the CDC.) COV19 imho.

google: 2019 vaping lung illness wiki (direct link doesn't work)

Posted by: Noirette | May 11 2020 19:27 utc | 4

A group of doctors in Japan said they used antibody tests to find Japanese hospital patients who had it in September and one patient who had it in August. They've yet to publish in a peer review journal but released the results on social media.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3734434503294208&id=100001830850140

Posted by: Doryphore | May 11 2020 19:32 utc | 5

Posted by: mv | May 11 2020 19:08 utc | 3

Coronavirus was detected in Greenspring in March 30.

Wow, so a disease detected in Greenspring in March 30 is caused by a virus whose the closest known relative infects bats in central China. The plot thickens...

Posted by: hopehely | May 11 2020 19:43 utc | 6

Genetic analysis by Zhang et al published in April suggests that while the closest relative to SARS-COV-2 is the Bat coronavirus RATG13, RATG13 is a cousin, whereas the parent from which SARS-COV-2 came is Pangolin virus. The paper by Liu,Chen on the discovery of that specific Pangolin virus contains interesting details in terms of the timeline.

Malayan Pangolins are an endangered species. The scientists studied a couple dozen of these creatures which Chinese authorities confiscated due to their illegal importation.

"The Guangdong Wildlife Rescue Center received 21 live Malayan pangolins from the Anti-smuggling Customs Bureau on 24 March 2019; most individuals, including adults and subadults, were in poor health... 16 died after extensive rescue
efforts. Most of the dead pangolins had a swollen lung which contained a frothy liquid, as well as the symptom of pulmonary fibrosis, and in the minority of the dead ones, we observed hepatomegaly and splenomegaly."

Note the date, March 2019. At that time there was no fear of Sars-COV-2.

If one believes the theory based on Zhang's findings, that the Pangolin COV is transmissible to humans, then customs workers, animal rescue workers, and research scientists handling this group of pangolins would be at risk of exposure.

Posted by: ptb | May 11 2020 19:47 utc | 7

I wrote a few days ago that Trump and Pompeo were playing with fire by blaming China. Hopefully, they'll both get burnt to political crisps with the continuing revelations that there were multiple cases occurring in vastly separated geographic regions such that in no possible way can any blame be laid on China and the world will avoid a hot war started by Trump to divert from his Treasonous actions beginning in January or before as it's now very clear his policy was to do nothing--Treason--in the face of a Pandemic.

Posted by: karlof1 | May 11 2020 19:59 utc | 8

the promotion of the useless but potentially dangerous Hydroxychloroquine as a therapy for Covid-19.

Hydroxychloroquine is an ancient drug, synthetic quinine, whose limited side-effects are well-known, first validated in the US in 1955, and on free purchase, without medical prescription, in France until three months ago. The prof Didier Ranoult found it was useful for cutting the multiplication of the virus in the first week of infection, but not later on, when the patient was about to die (the point when US researchers tested it). The problem is that it's out of patent, and Big Pharma won't make a profit. so they propose their alternative, remdisivir, which is useless but in patent.

It's very telling that there's a popular movement towards using it even if forbidden. The US military's use has been complained about, the French military are said to have cured a load on their aircraft carrier.

Posted by: Laguerre | May 11 2020 20:11 utc | 9

thanks b... lots of untied connections, or dead ends as the case may be in tracking the origins of all this.. i think the verdict is still out on hydroxychlooroquine.. it would be good if it worked as it is cheap and that would run counter to the cadaver-leeches hoping to profit off this...

Posted by: james | May 11 2020 20:19 utc | 10

In a world with thousands of international flights everyday you cannot say exactly where the virus appeared or was spreading, in our globalized world an epidemic became a pandemic in just 24 hours due to a very infectious virus; you can only estimate the origin from the place with a very big cluster of people infected, and that was Wuhan (simple probabilities).

Of course the theory of man made origin has not been debunked, someone can say is less probable, but it is far from impossible, and the time required for the mutations we see in the Covid-19 could be a proof that the virus genome was fine-tuned to achieve certain characteristics, not as a weapon, but to study the possible mutations that make the virus more infectious, just to avoid a pandemic....And that is exactly the scope of this project (to study the risk of epidemic from bat coronavirus):

https://projectreporter.nih.gov/project_info_description.cfm?aid=9819304&icde=49881458&ddparam=&ddvalue=&ddsub=&cr=6&csb=default&cs=ASC&pball=

They say in the "Project Information":

"We will use S protein sequence data, infectious clone technology, in vitro and in vivo infection experiments and analysis of receptor binding to test the hypothesis that % divergence thresholds in S protein sequences predict spillover potential"

I am affraid that this "S protein divergence" that was searched in the project (by "infectious clone technology") is what could perfectly cause the "spillover" around the world we see now, and the project was made in the I.V. of Wuhan.

Accidents happens, that's life

Posted by: DFC | May 11 2020 20:24 utc | 11

Oh my b, you have gone there! Finally. And a huge thank you.

My curiosity: Finding patient zero. A Series of Unfortunate Events- the timeline beyond Greenspring, VA.

The search is on.
I am reposting the article at link because my friend's mother had double pneumonia last August 2019, was hospitalized for 3 weeks, touch 'n go; then released with several follow-ups by specialists and her GP. She lives 200 kms east of Montreal, Quebec and has not travelled overseas or been in contact with anyone who has. Lives in a town with no COVID-19 reported to date.

Last week she received an unusual call [- not from her GP-].... from a hospital research centre ... "We need you to come in for a CT." A chest scan, not ordered by her GP. Yes, we are curious. COVID-19 symptoms are many.

After a long walk, do your legs feel heavy? Be careful, don't say that in the presence of an RN.
"Oh, that's an COVID symptom; I have to place you in isolation, under lock - in a keyed entry room." No. kidding. People do freak out.

I am focused and waiting for patients zero. Navarro and Pompeo are insisting on compensation from China and may end up eating rotted roadkill.

Posted by: Likklemore | May 11 2020 20:27 utc | 12

Experts estimate that it took 20 to 70 years for the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its relative in bats to develop from a common ancestor. The development of SARS-CoV-2 likely did not take place within bats but in some animal which has an organism more similar to the human one.

These two points are not in dispute, but the conclusion is not a "slam-dunk".

These facts suggest two possibilities:

1. the virus developed naturally over the last 70 years, maybe involving raccoon dogs, maybe pangolins, maybe something else, but unfortunately we have not detected it in any animal population. It made the jump to humans, but unfortunately we have not detected the several unsuccessful attempts that are generally associated with zoonotic transfer.

2. it was developed in some lab somewhere by serial passage through ferrets (an animal with ACE2 receptors like humans) which would result in a 4% divergence in a compressed timeframe (maybe a few years for tens of passages). We know that such research has been conducted in labs around the world. We know that accidental leakage also occurs frequently (more often than anyone likes).

Have we seen enough evidence at this point to come down hard on one side rather than keep an open mind?

We should also take note that many experts who are involved with Gain of Function research have been very vocal about how SARS-COV-2 was definitely natural, but they have a conflict of interest - they do not want to be blamed for doing dangerous research so they do not even discuss that their research exists, and the media politely do not enquire.

Posted by: Deltaeus | May 11 2020 20:28 utc | 13

I have been collecting sources on possible early cases on my COVID-19 page. Two issues not mentioned here:

1) I suspect the mysterious "vaping illness" is actually COVID-19.

2) The Virginia Department of Health warned residents of an increase in respiratory illnesses on July 19, 2020. They cannot identify a single cause. Instead "the reports involve different regions of the state and different diseases, including pertussis (whooping cough), influenza, Haemophilus influenzae infection, Legionnaire’s disease, and pneumonia caused by rhinovirus or human metapneumovirus."

Posted by: Petri Krohn | May 11 2020 20:34 utc | 14

@18,

The Nextstrain analysis shows that the various strains in their collection are closely clustered genetically. It doesn't show where they originated. To get an idea of where they are from, they'd need to find the intermediate host animal and see if it matches to the virus in that animal. Even that might not narrow where it's from if the host animal has a massive range.

Posted by: Doryphore | May 11 2020 20:44 utc | 15

Reading the NEJM article they present reasonably complete criteria for who would and who would not be given chloroquine. No selection to remove patients with G6PD. No selection to remove patients with sickle cell. This sounds more like malpractice than a medical study. G6PD is 400 million people worldwide, not a rare case at all. There a significant number of other finer scale contraindications for chloroquine. Ignore and prescribe?

Dosages used in the successful French observational studies are noted. They are aware of what a useful dosage might be. And then test a completely different dosage. What does such a study prove?

Every writeup of the positive potential of chloroquine notes that it won’t do much or anything unless used early in course of disease. So the NEJM study doses extremely ill patients late in the day.

Chloroquine has been OTC nonprescription all over the planet, anyplace malaria is endemic, for many decades. It is distributed to and used by populations that are wholly illiterate. But safe use is beyond the competence of first world doctors.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 11 2020 20:48 utc | 16

Exponential growth reinforces traditional WHO/China narrative

Even if you can find a genetically similar SARs illness at earlier points, the Covid-19, the one that we all know and love, tends to explode when it introduces itself in a particular way. It popped in China in Jan then in Italy and Iran from Chinese workers and then in New York in March from Europe due to our stupidity. We were too busy interviewing Gordon Chang and giving ourselves high fives for 5 weeks and chose to do nothing else.

Posted by: Christian J Chuba | May 11 2020 20:49 utc | 17

@ b

Using the link you include in your post, we can see what are the changes in the Covid-19 genome compare to SARS-Cov:

https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463

They say in the article:

"In particular, the spike gene (S) consistently exhibited larger dS values than other genes (Table 1). This pattern became clear when we calculated the dS value for each branch in Fig. 1A for the spike gene versus the concatenated sequences of the remaining genes (Fig. S2). In each branch, the dS of spike was 2.22 ± 1.35 (mean ± SD) times as large as that of the other genes"

So the divergence between the genomes of the SARS-Cov and Covid-19 (SARS-Cov-2) is in the genes that produce the S (spike) protein. Interesting

And then they mention:
"Five out of the six critical amino acid (AA) residues in RBD were different between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV (Fig. 1B), and a 3D structural analysis indicated that the spike of SARS-CoV-2 has a higher binding affinity to ACE2 than SARS-CoV"

So if we go to the NIH project "made in Wuhan" is exactly what they wanted to replicate in the lab: "to test the hypothesis that % divergence thresholds in S protein sequences predict spillover potential" (S is spike protein)

Too many casualties at exact the same time...hummmm

Posted by: DFC | May 11 2020 20:50 utc | 18

HCQ might not be any good but that linked article doesn't support the claim.
The study was designed to fail - HCQ+AZM is recommended for early stage use, and is not useful when people are already in a serious condition. So administering to the more serious cases is, by design, going to produce poor results.

Posted by: Deltaeus | May 11 2020 20:57 utc | 19

"as false as the promotion of the useless but potentially dangerous Hydroxychloroquine as a therapy for Covid-19."

Cherry picking just one publication out from a pile of mostly positive results.

I have been waiting for a balanced piece from b about hydroxychloroquine ever since the story became public, but it is now clear to me this will never happen.

I have been reading this blog for several years, sponsored b with a total of 150 euro in donations for his excellent reporting on many subjects, while living on a low income myself. It was well spent, but I feel disappointed since the corona crisis. Somehow it is just not the same anymore. There are still some great comments though.

Posted by: Joost | May 11 2020 21:01 utc | 20

This story about unusual cases of pneumonia in the Lombardy region of Italy have been mentioned for about 2 months now. Also the so called "vaping" lung cases from last summer in the US have been mentioned. If these anecdotes indicate much earlier cases of covid-19 then it seems they should have been documented by now. We now have the tests to support such hypotheses. For survivors, there are the antibody tests. For those who died it may be possible that some blood samples are still in storage so direct tests for the virus using PCR would detect the virus. If not for the latter, a few exhumations may be warranted since the PCR test is sensitive enough to detect the viruses RNA even after embalming.

Posted by: ToivoS | May 11 2020 21:03 utc | 21

Deltaeus @16

If ferrets become infectious at, say, one week after exposure to the virus, then you can force 52 generations of the virus per year rather than the two or three that you might get per year in a natural setting.

As I understand it, zoonotic viruses do not often jump straight from one species to another and be highly infectious in the new species right from the start. It takes many generations for the virus to evolve to better infect its new host. For example, covid ver. 1.0 (SARS), while very deadly, was not very infectious in humans.

So covid ver. 2.0 must either have been around for several years before anyone noticed it, or it must have been deliberately "tuned" for infecting humans. We know the latter was going on as that is what some of the research at University of North Carolina and Fort Detrick was about. So the only speculation is how such a virus could have ended up being released into the environment. Accident? Given Fort Detrick's history that is a possibility. Circumstantial evidence suggest it wasn't an accident, though.

Posted by: William Gruff | May 11 2020 21:23 utc | 22

My main question if there were early cases of covid back in 2019 is how it managed to be so contained for so long, considering how the thing exploded quickly this year. Makes me wonder if some strains became more contagious in late 2019.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | May 11 2020 21:37 utc | 23

going a bit further in time:

The source is French national news, although found in the sports section.
sportifs francais contamines par le covid 19 jeux militaires de wuhan
Google translated in English:
French athletes contaminated by Covid-19 from October at the Wuhan Military Games

That said the theory that the US were curiously bad in Wuhan does not hold as they always perform poorly at military games, 2019 was not an exception:
2011 Rio: they ranked 16
2015 S Korea: 23
2019 Wuhan: 35

So if one assumes that some French athletes came back with the virus, one can also assume the same for the Italian delegation, the Iranian one etc.

Posted by: frenchman | May 11 2020 21:58 utc | 24

@ 25 thanks sam.. i was wondering about that...

Posted by: james | May 11 2020 22:07 utc | 25

Incredible that despite the importance of the hydroxyChloroquine debate, b still doesn't understand the issues involved.

The study that b links to:

  • is merely "observational"
  • says nothing about the use of Zinc (recognized as a key part of the treatment);
  • involves people whose disease progression is too advanced:

    AFAIK Covid-19 is really a secondary infection that COV-SARS-2 makes someone susceptible to. The hydroxyChloroquine treatment will do nothing for anyone that has progressed to the Covid-19 stage.

  • Is one of a series of flawed studies that are hyped as debunking the hydroxyChloroquine treatment - all of which are part of an obvious media campaign against the treatment.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 11 2020 22:12 utc | 26

Human DNA has 50% in common with bananas and fruit flies. All the ‘science’ talk is just more pissing in the wind, it doesn’t even matter where the virus came from ffs are you going to try and blame herpes on a country?!

Posted by: Yevgengy | May 11 2020 22:19 utc | 27

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/03/26/army-lab-fights-coronavirus-and-its-own-demons/

Born in the USA..as many times was said here there was a big problem with Fort Detrick(so it was reported)...a problem useful for a "live exercise".

Posted by: LuBa | May 11 2020 22:28 utc | 28

Even papayas are testing positive.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/6910821/coronavirus-papaya-goat-tanzania/amp/

I’d be wary of any tests on older samples. Too late to isolate an intact virus. The tests that detect small bits of the virus via PCR have not independently validated specificity (rate of false positives)

Posted by: Pft | May 11 2020 22:31 utc | 29

Amongst the ordinary folks who reside at Anoxia the proposition that "it" was infecting people in dez here partz last October, and possibly prior to October, is the story Wally hears at the hardware store .

July? Ft D?

Duh?

If, being totally innocent of the way, Wally wanted to do GIF on CVx he'd use primates...Helmer and his sources list an astonishing long list of Primates used at Porton Down in the months prior to "it"...

Coincidence Theory...

Posted by: Walter | May 11 2020 22:34 utc | 30

For all the people who keep citing that recent Nature article by (naturally conflict of interest-free) "experts" claiming that SARS-COV-2 could NEVER EVER have come out of a lab, here's that not so recent Nature article again, singing an entirely different (dissonant) tune:

A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence

Even then, alarm bells were sounded (notice the pooh-poohs added recently at the top of the first article - why don't they outright write FNORD?):

Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research
Lab-Made Coronavirus Triggers Debate


Of course, funky virus research has been going on for much longer, and it's all for our own good, people..

Engineering immune evasion


Finally, it's all just a big coincidence folks. Move along, nothing to see!

Crimson Contagion

Crimson Contagion was a simulation administered by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services from January to August 2019 that tested the capacity of the U.S. federal government and twelve U.S. states to respond to a severe influenza pandemic originating in China. The exercise, which was conducted months prior to the start of the coronavirus pandemic, involves a scenario in which tourists returning from China spread a respiratory virus in the United States, beginning in Chicago. In less than two months the virus had infected 110 million Americans, killing more than half a million. The report issued at the conclusion of the exercise outlines the government's limited capacity to respond to a pandemic, with federal agencies lacking the funds, coordination, and resources to facilitate an effective response to the virus.

Posted by: Lurk | May 11 2020 22:37 utc | 31

@ Yevgengy | May 11 2020 22:19 utc | 28

There is some historical precedence:

The many names for syphilis

By 1500 syphilis had reached the Scandinavian countries, Britain, Hungary, Greece, Poland and Russia. Explorers took the disease to Calcutta in 1498, and by 1520 it had reached Africa, the near East, China, Japan and Oceania.

Since there was no official name for the disease people usually named it after an enemy or a country they thought responsible for it.

The French called it the “Neapolitan disease”, or the “Spanish disease”, and also the “great pox”, the English and Italians called it the “French disease”, or the “French pox”, Germans called it the “French evil”, the Russians called it the “Polish disease”, the Polish and the Persians called it the “Turkish disease”.

The Turkish called it the “Christian disease”, the Tahitians called it the “British disease”, in India it was called the “Portuguese disease”, in Japan it was called the “Chinese pox.”

Posted by: Lurk | May 11 2020 22:45 utc | 32

Which b wrote this?

Posted by: chu teh | May 11 2020 22:56 utc | 33

Sam @ 25, James @ 26:

Thanks Sam for the information. I have since found the distance is just over 46 miles / 74 km between the two.

BTW I did expect my comment to disappear quickly so it's good that you guys noticed.

Jackrabbit with his hydroxychloroquine stance and I had better prepare for what's ahead for us if we keep up our recalcitrant attitudes ...

Posted by: Jen | May 11 2020 23:04 utc | 34

@Laguerre 9:

You are so right. Furthermore, Prof Raoult is THE most respected infectologist in the world, as rated by his peers:

http://expertscape.com/ex/communicable+diseases

If someone of his stature and experience says that HCQ plus zinc, given in the early stages of infection, is a valid treatment, then that is utterly good enough, even for a die-hard skeptic like me. Zinc interferes with viral replication, and this means any virus, not just SARS-COV-2. HCQ is a zinc ionophore, which is an agent that binds to zinc and which itself binds to a cell surface receptor, thus allowing the zinc to enter the cell and be yet more effective. The data negate our host's conclusion about the ineffectiveness of HCQ. This is not meant as a slight or an insult to our host; no one is perfect.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4182877/

@Joost 20 and @jackrabbit 27: I agree completely with both statements. Thank you both for your comments.

Posted by: Theophrastus | May 11 2020 23:04 utc | 35

The Novel Coronavirus Went Global In November ...

Suddenly appeared everywhere in November? Hey, that's not suspicious./sarc

Is someone trying to cover their tracks?

=
George Webb debunked

... by CNN? LOL.

Webb is a strange character. He may very well be a disinfo agent. If so, he's directing us to things that are meant to be "debunked."

=
Th experts agree that the virus evolved naturally...

"Experts agree"?

The Chinese study that b links to mainly makes the case for two main variants of COV-SAR-2 and calls for further study:

... the data examined in this study are still very limited, and follow-up analyses of a larger set of data are needed to have a better understanding of the evolution and epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

=
This July 2019 cluster of pneumonia of unknown cause in Fairfax County now looks awfully suspicious ...

Other suspicious things to consider:

  • The shutdown of Ft. Detrick
    Still suspicious whatever you think of George Webb;
  • John Bolton's firing/resignation;
  • ARAMACO's great IPO timing;
  • USA's inept response to the outbreak in Wuhan.

Note: This is not meant to be an exhaustive list of suspicious things.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 11 2020 23:07 utc | 36

@ 35 jen... this deleting of posts is not making sense to me.. i saw your previous post... thanks..

Posted by: james | May 11 2020 23:15 utc | 37

Petri Krohn | May 11 2020 20:34 utc | 14

Wrong year date...report makes serious and ominous sense with correct date 2019. Allow me to help make your point:

Verbatim QUOTING your source, dated July 19, 2019 :

Virginia Department of Health Warns Residents of Increase in Respiratory Illnesses
Anyone Experiencing Difficulty Breathing Should Seek Medical Care

(Richmond, Va.) – Since the end of flu season in May, the Virginia Department of Health has received increased reports of respiratory (breathing) illness across the Commonwealth greater than observed in previous summers. Most of the reports have occurred among older adults and those with chronic medical conditions in assisted living and long-term care facilities. The reports involve different regions of the state and different diseases, including pertussis (whooping cough), influenza, Haemophilus influenzae infection, Legionnaire’s disease, and pneumonia caused by rhinovirus or human metapneumovirus.

End quote.
Source link at Petri Krohn | May 11 2020 20:34 utc | 14


Posted by: chu teh | May 11 2020 23:19 utc | 38

Clueless Joe | May 11 2020 21:37 utc | 23

... how it managed to be so contained for so long...?

Ummm...by doing lots of careful and painstaking research on optimizing asymptomatic [read invisible] contagion and and discovery obfuscation and layered covers and swearing to uphold the Clinton Doctrine of never, as in ever, admit the truth. Not to fail to mention...chaosing the narrative.

Posted by: chu teh | May 11 2020 23:30 utc | 39

The problem with hydroxychloroquine reports is twofold:

1) If you use it at an early stage of disease, who's to say the patient wouldn't have gotten better on his own later? Depending on how many patients you are treating, this could skew the results making it look more effective than it is. This may be what happened in France's experience.

2) If you use it at the wrong dosage or without the recommended side drugs, the experiment is not being replicated properly. This could explain the heart problems.

I believe China was the first to use this treatment. Why doesn't someone ask them:

1) *why* they started using it.
2) *Exactly* how many patients received the treatment and what were the outcomes? i.e., is their experience statistically significant?
3) How many of those patients given the specified dosage developed any sort of heart problems, as reported in the Western experiments? If the Western experiments are correct, the Chinese should have seen the same effect.

I am reserving judgement until there is a review study that confirms the proper replication of the treatments on a statistically adequate number of patients across a significant number of studies.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 11 2020 23:30 utc | 40

I looked skeptially at the study very briefly ..... and I noted the following 2 quotes:

"Hydroxychloroquine-treated patients were more severely ill at baseline than those who did not receive hydroxychloroquine (median ratio of partial pressure of arterial oxygen to the fraction of inspired oxygen, 223 vs. 360)."


"Patients were defined as receiving hydroxychloroquine if they were receiving it at study baseline or received it during the follow-up period before intubation or death. Study baseline was defined as 24 hours after arrival at the emergency department."

In an ideal study the selection of HCQ/not HCQ would be random, HCQ treatment should begin early, and zinc should also be included.

So, this study appears to be far from ideal, and hence the conclusion that HCQ is useless in unwarrented.

Posted by: Allan Davis | May 11 2020 23:38 utc | 41

@oldhippie, May 11 20:48

But safe use is beyond the competence of first world doctors.

Not all first world doctors - Dr Pietro Garavelli, head of the Infectious Diseases Division, University Hospital, Novara, Italy

In Piedmont, the “Covid at home” system is being implemented that provides early diagnosis of the first symptoms even without waiting for the time for the swab, immediate start of therapy at home with hydroxychloroquine and control by family doctors. The goal is to intervene as soon as possible and avoid hospitalization. An intervention that not only significantly reduces the worsening of the clinical picture that often occurs around the seventh or eighth day after the onset of the first symptoms, but also has the effect of reducing hospitalizations, necessary just when the conditions worsen. This approach, which has been active for several weeks, has proved its effectiveness precisely in Novara, where we have treated many cases early and therefore it has been found that the area has reached a mortality per inhabitant that is the lowest compared to the rest of the neighboring provinces. All this was made possible precisely because we treated the sick at home early with hydroxychloroquine

https://www.newsbiella.it/2020/04/28/leggi-notizia/argomenti/speciale-coronavirus-4/articolo/idrossiclorochina-vs-covid-19-una-terapia-considerata-efficace-ma-controversa-il-parere-dellinfet-4.html

Posted by: cirsium | May 11 2020 23:44 utc | 42

There is not a known mechanism, which would explain why hydroxychlorquinine should work. Some attempts have been made many years ago to test its antiviral properties but with no apparent success. Does anyone know who may have got the crazy idea that it could be an effective treatment for Covid-19.

Posted by: kare | May 11 2020 23:49 utc | 43

Richard Steven Hack @ 41

As to “why?” Because it had been used with some success in treatment of original SARS back in 2003. Also because it is an old drug, extremely well known and known to be extremely safe. The circumstances in which it is not safe are also extremely well known.

You are correct that some of those getting the drug early would have recovered anyway, with no treatment. So what? Treating a patient with a drug known to be extremely safe is no problem.

This is getting to be like a discussion of the hazards of aspirin. Were aspirin new it would have a lot of problems getting approval. Aspirin does have many problems. Since we know what the problems are it is possible to navigate the risks in relative safety.

Posted by: oldhippie | May 11 2020 23:55 utc | 44

Posted by: Yevgengy | May 11 2020 22:19 utc | 28

it doesn’t even matter where the virus came from ffs are you going to try and blame herpes on a country?!

Well if it is novel herpes virus sure it would be good to know where it came from.

Posted by: hopehely | May 11 2020 23:59 utc | 45

Richard Steven Hack @ May11 23:30

1) *why* they started using it.

AFAIK they noticed that no one with lupus got Covid-19 (Lupus sufferers take Chloroquine).

2) *Exactly* how many patients received the treatment and what were the outcomes? i.e., is their experience statistically significant?

Yeah, such detail is unknown. AFAIK, the Chinese didn't do any strong studies in January/February because they were fighting the virus. They only reported that it appeared to help. They added it to a list of someone effective medicines.

The Chinese apparently used larger-than-necessary doses of Chloroquine and failed to understand WHY Chloroquine was helpful. AFAICT,they didn't add Zinc to their treatment.

=
3) How many of those patients given the specified dosage developed any sort of heart problems...

Your questions suggest that you don't know of Raoult's (France) contribution. He standardized the treatment regimen with a much smaller dosage than used in China. His treatment regimen is as follows:

PLAQUENIL (hydroxychloroquine) – 200mg tablet

ZITHROMAX (azithromycin) – 500mg NS 250 mL

VITAMIN-C (ascorbic acid) 1,000mg D5W 100mL IV

ZINCATE (zinc sulfate) 220mg capsule


Importantly, Raoult added Zinc because it is required to prevent viral replication.

Among other things, we've seen USA/Western researchers attempt to debunk Chloroquine treatment by using the high dosages that China tried. Such high dosages are much more likely to have severe side-effects. Established/"Prestigious" USA/Western researchers ignore Raoult's work - leading to suspicions that they are influenced by Big Pharma.

(Note: I'm not a doctor.)

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 12 2020 0:04 utc | 46

Posted by: kare | May 11 2020 23:49 utc | 44

There is not a known mechanism, which would explain why hydroxychlorquinine should work. Some attempts have been made many years ago to test its antiviral properties but with no apparent success. Does anyone know who may have got the crazy idea that it could be an effective treatment for Covid-19.

I am not 100% sure but I guess that because the drug is used to treat some types of autoimmune disorders it might be effective to suppress the cytokine storm (an immune overreaction that causes tissue damage) in some patients.

Posted by: hopehely | May 12 2020 0:05 utc | 47

FYI

Chloroquine is a synthetic derivative of Quinine.

hydroxyChloroquine is a safer/safest(?) version of Chloroquine.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 12 2020 0:07 utc | 48

@6 hopehely "Wow, so a disease detected in Greenspring in March 30 is caused by a virus whose the closest known relative infects bats in central China. The plot thickens..."

A good observation, but I believe the key word there is "known".

It really is no surprise that the closest "known" relative in bats comes from samples collected by the Chinese.

After all, they appear to have been far and away the country most concerned about bats as a reservoir of disease, so if you want to look through the "bat data" then it is going to be heavily skewed towards bats that are found in China.

For all you and I know there is a much closer match in a bat.... somewhere else.
But we wouldn't know because nobody has made the effort to collect any samples.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | May 12 2020 0:20 utc | 50

@May12 0:17 take-away

Chloroquine + Zinc can:

1) disrupt viral replication;

2) reduce inflamation and cytokin storms.


!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 12 2020 0:24 utc | 51

I work in healthcare. The QTc prolongation adverse effect profile of hydroxychloroquine is well understood. The medication has been around for over half a century.

The QTc side effect can be managed with EKG monitoring and dose reduced or ceased if the prolongation reaches the clinic threshold for doing so. There are many medications prescribed that have this problem - and many that are commonly prescribed to millions of people that are much worse than HCQ, particularly psychiatric drugs that are heavily advertised by Big Pharma in the media. The media is not making a fuss about the antipsychotics that heavily advertise and roughly double sudden cardiac death risk in a dose-dependent fashion (see https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa0806994 ).

HCQ is no worse and in fact safer than many of these psychiatric drugs.

So why all the negativity in the media about HCQ?? - to the point of suppression/censorship on social media!!

The media that pour scorn and scaremonger about HCG as a "dangerous drug" are disingenuous to the point of criminality. 'Buzzfeed' is one of the worst. Their Big Pharma sponsors do not want a cheap out of patent drug (along with azithromycin and zinc supplements) becoming the mainstay of treatment for Covid-19.

Posted by: PJB | May 12 2020 0:26 utc | 52

Yeah, Right | May 12 2020 0:20

... because nobody has made the effort to collect any samples.

Or, because anyone that has made the effort isn't talking.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 12 2020 0:26 utc | 53

With politics (the November election), scapegoating, the economic depression and the fall of the Western Empire very much involved, finding impartial scientific COVID-19 information is near impossible. This site is the best you’ll find but, no doubt, it and the comments are colored by our human biases.

A factor never mentioned in corporate press is that healthcare in the USA is privatized. All that matters is profits. The only thing that would get any attention at all is a significant cluster of deaths. Three were reported in mid-2019 in a nursing home in Northern Virginia. The 68 Vaping deaths came and went when vitamin E acetate was identified as a possible culprit. With both, there was no exponential growth of illness and death like the coronavirus outbreak. In fact, clusters of deaths don’t matter to the corporate elite. Boeing killed 346 people. The around 0.1% fatality rate of COVID-19 with a functional healthcare system is touted as justification for ending the lockdown. That will kill about a million and half Americans without mitigation. This is of no matter to the White House, Republicans and apparently corporate Democrats. Without spending the money and instituting national public health measures to test everyone, trace contacts and quarantine the infected in safe secure facilities; the pandemic will wax and wane and spread to every corner of North America. Lockdowns will keep popping up to prevent local hospitals from being overwhelmed by all the sick; rich, middle-class and mostly poor. America will be a very ill society for the foreseeable future.

I wouldn’t be surprised that a contagious former bat coronavirus made it into a human population earlier in 2019. A virulent form appeared in Wuhan China that swamped the city’s hospitals and a third even more deadly mutation occurred in Lombardy, Italy. Any study that hinders the out of China propaganda will likely ignored by politicians and the media. They really want to hide the truth. To try keep things as they were.

Posted by: VietnamVet | May 12 2020 0:29 utc | 54

Petri Krohn | May 11 2020 20:34 utc | 14

The Virginia Department of Health warned residents of an increase in respiratory illnesses on July 19, 2020. They cannot identify a single cause. Instead "the reports involve different regions of the state and different diseases, including pertussis (whooping cough), influenza, Haemophilus influenzae infection, Legionnaire’s disease, and pneumonia caused by rhinovirus or human metapneumovirus."

Great page you have there Petri. That is one exceptional resource. I thank you.
I gather in the above quotation you mean July 2019.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 12 2020 0:51 utc | 55

Yeah, Right #52

For all you and I know there is a much closer match in a bat.... somewhere else.
But we wouldn't know because nobody has made the effort to collect any samples.

Thank you for that precise observation. See Hendra virus in the bunya nut republic aka Oz. FATAL in humans sometimes. Years ago there was a total lockdown of horses across the land.

Australian CSIRO no doubt researches this significant disease at its BSL4 lab in Geelong Victoria.
Its trajectory is:
Bats as primary carrier infects horses.
Dogs can pick it up from horses. (I assume from eating dung).
Humans pick it up from horses.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 12 2020 1:11 utc | 56

Jen #35

I'll shout the bar for that delightful comment. I see that jack the rabbit and chu teh and wally are at the bar and in fine form today.

I love the company at this bar even though we sometimes spar a little. Loved chu teh' sharp which b wrote this?

Thanks b you sure know how to get the barflies in a frenzy. It boosts the bar sales too I guess :)

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 12 2020 1:31 utc | 57

Hi,
chloroquine interferes with the maturation of glycosylation of the ACE2 receptor and this means that the ACE2 protein is then a poor receptor for the virus. It is moderately effective in a cell culture system at doses that can be obtained in target tissues. It is safe-- I took it for malaria many moons ago.
As for the virus it looks like it has a acquired mutations throughout its genome. The worrying thing is the acquisition of a pro-protein convertase site in the spike protein PRRAR. That is a perfect site for cleavage not present in the bat virus and something a bad actor might insert if they were making a GOF virus. I suppose it has plausible deinability. We may never know if it was made deliberately unless we get access to lab books and sequencing files. On balance I think its a wild virus.

Posted by: cj | May 12 2020 2:10 utc | 58

About Hydrochloriquine and Raoult process:

We are a very extended an international family with generally high diplomas (sorry to get personnal)
- So one of my sister's Husband lives in Bergamo he is over 78.
got coronavirus in February;, his son of 50 years too.
- both by the Raoult treatment and both recovered

- Other members in Morocco, a poor country with very low deaths rate, confirm that the Raoult protocol is the only treatment practiced.

So, also I agree there are No scientific fundamentals proofs; just practical ones.
Facts on the ground versus papers of competing Egos and Labs ?


Posted by: Charles Michael | May 12 2020 2:35 utc | 59

chu teh | May 11 2020 22:56 utc | 34

"Which b wrote this?"

b trolling his readers?

It has certainly caused a massive distraction from the main body of his report.

Posted by: ted01 | May 12 2020 2:42 utc | 60

Late night musings

We shouldn't ignore the economics of this pandemic and the US-China conflict it has accelerated.

The virus mostly kills the old and weak (it can bring a lot of other complications for younger people too but those are longer term and less severe than death). Those who cost society the most and are generally less productive NOW than younger, healthier people.

Healthcare in the last years of life accounts for most of the cost of healthcare in a person's lifetime. Killing lots of older people could save government and private insurance companies tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars.

While making Big Pharma tens of billions.

And private lawsuits against China can "recoup" hundreds of billions more. It's very easy for USA to satisfy these lawsuits via Chinese Treasury holdings. USA companies will exit China pronto to avoid their assets being confiscated by China in retaliation.

So a pandemic (or "plandemic") that appears to be economically devastating to the West may wind up costly very little in terms of financial accounting. All while stoking anger toward China because of the death and hardship - which is forced upon ordinary people.

While it's difficult to know if the virus was man-made, USA/EMPIRE appears to be playing this pandemic to its advantage. (A point that I've made repeatedly on my blog.) And the astroturf-ed effort for "herd immunity" and constant bashing of the hydroxyChloroquine treatment are means of implementing the gaming.

Sadly, IMO this is how EMPIRE asshats think. This is how EMPIRE (the ambition of few to rule all) works.

Will it lead to war? (and thus many more dead). I feel that the EMPIRE is already in a hybrid war with many countries (and even with it's own people as resources are directed to military adventurism instead of the people's well-being!). If any of these conflict go 'hot', it could mean WWIII.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 12 2020 2:46 utc | 61

Uncle Tungsten @ 62:

Thank you very much for your support, it is very much appreciated.

Commenters over at Mark Chapman's New Kremlin Stooge have also noted the wipe-out of my comment (formerly @19).

Posted by: Jen | May 12 2020 3:08 utc | 62

Bats as primary carrier infects horses.
Dogs can pick it up from horses. (I assume from eating dung).
Humans pick it up from horses.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 12 2020 1:11 utc | 59

I assume the transfer to humans is not also by eating dung ...?
(Maybe from the horse lickling its fur, human touching the fur, then touching eyes-nose-mouth.)

Posted by: BM | May 12 2020 3:31 utc | 63

July? Ft D?
Coincidence Theory...
Posted by: Walter | May 11 2020 22:34 utc | 31

Definitely looking like the most plausible scenario at things stand. Past behaviour tends to be a good predictor of future behaviour, particularly when it is systematically repeated over a long period.

The recent French data includes a patient with pneumonia - i.e. already late stage - on 16th November, therefore that patient must have been infected 2-3 weeks earlier. Potentially, that can fit extremely well with the Wuhan games scenario (meaning, that US sporting military took it to Wuhan (and infecting many hotel staff there at the same time, plus seeding the wet market in the close vicinity), infection spread to military sportlers from other nations including France and Italy, and at least 6 US military emergency evacuated under secretive i.e. a priori suspicious circumstances, refusing to tell China what they were infected with.

Earliest leak from Frt.D. could have been June/July, heavily suppressed and leading to secret circulation amongst US military, with widespread leaking via asymptomatics. Relative of early asymptomatic works in home for elderly. Other low-paid carers with multiple jobs spread to other care homes ... etc.

Important question: were US military sportlers from US bases in Europe heavily represented in the Wuhan games? If so, that would heavily accellerate infections in Europe.

Posted by: BM | May 12 2020 4:05 utc | 64

@ previous comments

Just saying to my wife today how astounded I am that NO soi disant "journalist" has asked any questions about 'vaping diseases,' Greenspring outbreak, why CDC ordered Fort Detrick closed... Aren't these obvious questions to ask?

Posted by: spudski | May 12 2020 4:12 utc | 65

@ cj | May 12 2020 2:10 utc | 65

Interesting, thanks for the mentioning of that!

I managed to stay outside of the HCQ barfight, but the below article that I found thanks to your comment is pretty much a slamdunk. I haven't seen it mentioned before, perhaps it might have otherwise stopped the brawl.

B, perhaps this is the time to reconsider your opinion on HCQ.

Published: 22 August 2005
From: Virology Journal volume 2, Article number: 69 (2005)

Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread

Abstract

Background

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is caused by a newly discovered coronavirus (SARS-CoV). No effective prophylactic or post-exposure therapy is currently available.

Results

We report, however, that chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS-CoV infection of primate cells. These inhibitory effects are observed when the cells are treated with the drug either before or after exposure to the virus, suggesting both prophylactic and therapeutic advantage. In addition to the well-known functions of chloroquine such as elevations of endosomal pH, the drug appears to interfere with terminal glycosylation of the cellular receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2. This may negatively influence the virus-receptor binding and abrogate the infection, with further ramifications by the elevation of vesicular pH, resulting in the inhibition of infection and spread of SARS CoV at clinically admissible concentrations.

Conclusion

Chloroquine is effective in preventing the spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. Favorable inhibition of virus spread was observed when the cells were either treated with chloroquine prior to or after SARS CoV infection. In addition, the indirect immunofluorescence assay described herein represents a simple and rapid method for screening SARS-CoV antiviral compounds.

Posted by: Lurk | May 12 2020 4:30 utc | 66

@ spudski | May 12 2020 4:12 utc | 75

I'd say that those questions are potent career-benders.

You know how they say:

This is extremely dangerous to democracy!

(Warning: the above video is both incredibly hilarious and worrisome)

Posted by: Lurk | May 12 2020 4:48 utc | 67

Richard Steven Hack @ 41

The Chinese, through the Jack Ma Foundation, shared this 68-page document, which I'm told is quite excellent. They mention the use of chloroquine on page 24, and contraindications on page 38:

(4) Chloroquine phosphate: dizziness, headache, nausea, vomit, diarrhea, different
kinds of skin rash. The most severe adverse reaction is cardiac arrest. The main adverse
reaction is the ocular toxicity. An electrocardiogram needs to be examined before
taking the drug. The drug should be prohibited for patients with arrhythmia (e.g.,
conduction block), retinal disease, or hearing loss.

It is a prescriptive account of suggested treatments, not a study, but clearly they gained this knowledge at the cost of lives in their clinical experience in the early weeks of battling the virus.

Posted by: Billb | May 12 2020 4:56 utc | 68

NO soi disant "journalist" has asked any questions about 'vaping diseases,' Greenspring outbreak, why CDC ordered Fort Detrick closed...
Posted by: spudski | May 12 2020 4:12 utc | 75

Pertinent questions for real investigative journalism ... therefore quite clearly what MSM has to strenuously avoid!

Posted by: BM | May 12 2020 4:57 utc | 69

Which b wrote this?
Posted by: chu teh | May 11 2020 22:56 utc | 34

The NYT-deferring one. Early 2020 vintage, with notes of oaking in CNN barrels. Not the earlier one.

Posted by: BM | May 12 2020 5:01 utc | 70

@ Antonym | May 12 2020 2:03 utc | 64

The way that I read that article from March 2, 2018 (relinked below) actually makes it more likely that bat corona virus strains have been collected and manipulated in some kind of laboratory setting rather than a natural jump between species. For if the latter were the case, the disease would naturally be expected to show clusters of breakouts close to its natural reservoirs. But neither SARS nor Covid-19 seems to have affected these exact rural areas. Instead, the breakouts happen where bat (and other wild animal) contact is much less likely.

And before pointing to chinese labs, observe my earlier comment above where it is pointed out that researchers at UNC Chapel Hill were already in 2015 causing an outrage about their gain of function research on bat corona viruses collected in China.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12250-018-0012-7

As a control, we also collected 240 serum samples from random blood donors in 2015 in Wuhan, Hubei Province more than 1000 km away from Jinning (Fig. 1A) and where inhabitants have a much lower likelihood of contact with bats due to its urban setting. None of the donors had knowledge of prior SARS infection or known contact with SARS patients.

Posted by: Lurk | May 12 2020 5:08 utc | 71

@ Billb | May 12 2020 4:56 utc | 78

No this was scientifically documented in 2005:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186%2F1743-422X-2-69

Posted by: Lurk | May 12 2020 5:11 utc | 72

Bm@79

Vaping disease affected younger people. 80% of death is the elderly who don't vape.

FT Detrick closing was interesting. Maybe something there. Might have wanted to close it off to anyone not in the loop.

Greenspring outbreak interesting as well. Fatality rate was low though and you would think there would have been more spread. Maybe they tweaked it. Or maybe it was just bacterial .

I would have thought testing for antibodies of those attending Wuhan games might have been done and compared to a control group of those who had no contact with them. Maybe it has, they dint tell us everything and most of what they do tell us are lies

Posted by: Bm@79 | May 12 2020 5:17 utc | 73

To elucidate my above terse comment, I meant to say that no, this knowledge was't gained battling Covid-19 in the first weeks, this was known from the preceeding SARS epidemic, including the mechanism of action!

Once it became known what agent was causing the emerging disease and that it used a similar mechanism as SARS to infect cells, HCQ was an obvious candidate.

BTW, chloroquinone particularly may affect the retina, due tomits affinity for melanin containing cells. Hydroxychloroquine does not have this affinity to melanin, so it is safer for the eyes. Precautionary heart monitoring is still recommended though.

Posted by: Lurk | May 12 2020 5:23 utc | 74

Posted by: oldhippie | May 11 2020 23:55 utc | 45 You are correct that some of those getting the drug early would have recovered anyway, with no treatment. So what? Treating a patient with a drug known to be extremely safe is no problem.

My point was that it would skew the apparent positive effects of the drug IF it was being used on too few patients to statistically override that skew. In other words, if too many of the patients treated with it would have recovered on their own, then the drug would be believed to be responsible when in fact it was not.

However, if the treatment was used on a statistically significant number of patients (properly at the early stages and the correct dosage) and yet the outcomes were still statistically better than what would have been expected with that number of patients, then the positive effect of the treatment would be more likely.

The problem is that the number of patients treated is not clear in most of the news reports (and I don't know how many would be statistically significant in the first place.) That's why I'd like to see a review study of all the experiences - and especially the Chinese since before Italy and New York, they had the most cases.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 12 2020 0:04 utc | 47 The Chinese apparently used larger-than-necessary doses of Chloroquine and failed to understand WHY Chloroquine was helpful. AFAICT,they didn't add Zinc to their treatment.

"Your questions suggest that you don't know of Raoult's (France) contribution."

I know of it, I just haven't read the details of the treatment protocol. Thanks for the clarification.

"Importantly, Raoult added Zinc because it is required to prevent viral replication."

Yes, I did hear that zinc was an important part of the treatment (if not the exact dosage).

Posted by: Weyapiersenwah | May 12 2020 4:02 utc | 73 But I hear nobody talking about the EVMS CRITICAL CARE COVID-19 MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL.
https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf

I posted links to this in an earlier thread here. They do apparently recommend HCQ. I upped my Vitamin C, Zinc and D-3 daily doses based on their prophylaxis recommendations.

Posted by: Billb | May 12 2020 4:56 utc | 78 The Chinese, through the Jack Ma Foundation, shared this 68-page document, which I'm told is quite excellent.

Yes, I read that last months. Didn't focus on the contraindications part.

In my mind, as long as the heart problems are known and monitored for and the dosage modified to account, that should not prevent its use as appropriate. However, I am not a doctor, but my impression based on doctors reports I've read in the last weeks is that changing treatment protocols either before or during a disease crisis is generally frowned on without sufficient studies to base them on. This is also related to the problem of treating this disease as a "standard" ARDS event, when a number of doctors have said they think this is not the case and that too early intubation may aggravate the condition. So it may be some months before some consensus is reached in the profession as to how exactly protocols created for previous conditions can be modified for this one.

We have to remember that doctors are constantly wary of being sued for malpractice or losing their licenses for malpractice or simply being fired and tarred with a negative performance profile if they deviate from established treatment protocols. We might like them to be willing to take more chances, but the industry doesn't like it. I've read that some countries such as France are arguing that physicians need more freedom to follow their conscience during crises like this one. I watched one Youtube video of a New York ICU doctor who stepped down from his post at the ICU because he could no longer in good conscience adhere to the treatment protocol he was forced to follow.

I'll say this - *if* I get this virus and have to go to the hospital, I'm telling my doctor two things:
1) I will *not* be intubated until I am in such condition as to not be able to refuse it - I want high flow oxygen for as long as possible first, and
2) I want the French or the EVMS treatment if I am not at a too late stage once I arrive at the hospital - and I will expect the same dosages and proper heart monitoring.

Whether I get that treatment or not will depend on what the hospital I'm at is allowed to do, but one can only try.

As an aside, I've now got 19 KN95 masks (one had a strap break today) which I rotate, plus food service gloves to cover my hands. I've got two 8-ounce bottles of hand sanitizer coming shortly (the ones I ordered from China never arrived and Aliexpress is issuing a refund.) I'm starting to wear a mask when I go to the hall john as I read that flushing a toilet aerosolizes virus particles that might be present. I'm still ignoring the "don't touch face" advice since my hands are super clean as I spend one to two minutes thoroughly cleaning them every time I go out of my rooms, following recommended medical doctors and nurses hand washing methods.

So all that, plus my usual isolation except for supply runs, pretty much should keep me safe from getting this thing - outside of the fact that it's still a crapshoot, of course... Hopefully there will be an effective treatment protocol that reduces deaths among the elderly within a few months.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 12 2020 6:04 utc | 75

Three points on a good expose of current situation:

1. The general outline of the C-19 etiology outlined here is fairly good. Not much more can be known until further science catches up. However, the opinion of a Nobel Prize-Winning scientist, who discovered HIV and suggests the cronavirus was created in a laboratory by expert professionals probably working on (although he does not know) an HIV/AIDS cure cannot be dismissed so easily. https://www.dr-rath-foundation.org/2020/04/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-who-discovered-hiv-says-coronavirus-was-created-in-laboratory/ [plus a short TV interview video in French with English subtitles]

2. The throw-away comment "Hydroxychloroquine as a therapy for Covid-19" needs more nuance -- the original context was that it showed promise when applied early under certain conditions. Little effect after that. It is somewhat misleading to suggest that a blunt and widespread MSM promotion of Hydroxychloroquine as the promised elixir (mainly as an anti-Trump charge) is an accurate rendition of the original French scientist's claims and cautions.

3. This interview "Ep. 9: "The Pandemic as a Lesson in Humility" feat. Gilbert Mercier" is well worth the time, imo -- https://youtu.be/Tan1qcpSmqQ

"Gilbert Mercier is a is a French journalist, photojournalist and filmmaker. He founded the News Junkie Post in 2009 and is its Co-Editor-in-Chief. Over the years, he has been a guest analyst on television and radio programs for RT, BBC World News, the Progressive Radio Network, Sputnik, Al Hurra TV, CounterPunch Radio, and Radio Islam. Mercier’s articles have been republished by Alternet, Truthout, CounterPunch, Z Communications, Signs of the Times, Popular Resistance, and others. He authored the book, "The Orwellian Empire." He is a member of the National Press Photographers Association and the Art Directors Guild of America. Gilbert and I spoke on May 5th, and covered a variety of political and environmental topics, many of them in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic."

Posted by: imo | May 12 2020 6:12 utc | 76

brian | May 12 2020 5:22 utc | 87

From months ago, I wanted to post a warning about counterfeit drugs as possible for terribly wrong results.

Now you have broached the subject...

The counterfeit quality results from huge profits from both re-packaging diluted versions[e.g. 50% watered down]of the actual drug or fake packaging/labeling of fake drugs. Both are known to occur with virtual no MSM coverage.

First learned of it from awesome complaints by old vet being treated for non-stop pain and narcotics, etc having only slight effect. BWDIK

For any eval or test, the drug inthe package must be independantly verified [Usu. spectroscopy]. Labels and manufacturer's QC markings can be faked.

Posted by: chu teh | May 12 2020 6:15 utc | 77

@34 chu teh "Which b wrote this?"

The one you don't like, I'd suggest.


Posted by: Yeah, Right | May 12 2020 6:25 utc | 78

chu teh | May 12 2020 5:57 utc | 89

Oops! Typed wrong date of FDA authorization for use of Chloroquine phosphate ,etc....should be March 28, 2020 [not March 39].

Posted by: chu teh | May 12 2020 7:07 utc | 79

Post 85 is mine and not Bm@79. Lol

Posted by: Pft | May 12 2020 7:28 utc | 80

Head of Forensic Pathology in Hamburg on Covid19 autopsy findings: “not a single person w/out previous illness has died of the virus in Hamburg. All had cancer, chronic lung dis, were heavy smokers or heavily obese, or had diabetes or cardiovasc disease."

“This virus affects our lives in a completely exaggerated way....And the astronomical economic damage now arising is not commensurate with the danger posed by the virus. I am convinced that corona mortality will not even make itself felt as a peak in annual mortality"

"By focusing strongly on the rather few negative processes, fears are created that are very burdensome. Covid-19 is a deadly disease only in exceptional cases, but in most cases it is a mostly harmless virus infection"

The above matches exactly with the experiences of Dr. Steven Shapiro at University of Pennsylvania Medical Center. We're finally getting the data we need, that combines age mortality with co-morbidities. "In sum, this is a disease of the elderly, sick and poor."

See my tweet for the Shapiro link: https://twitter.com/fairleft/status/1260009284537970688?s=20

Posted by: fairleft | May 12 2020 7:30 utc | 81

chu teh | May 12 2020 5:57 utc | 89

Also, should make clear that the anti-malarial Chloroquine binds the toxic, free heme enhancing its toxicity [to the malaria parasite!]...

Free heme is the porphyrin component no longer bound to the protein in hemoglobin. Excess free heme is toxic.

The fact of binding to the toxic, free heme appears useful in handling COVID-19 disease.

My notes from the slides were crudely done. Go to my source.

Posted by: chu teh | May 12 2020 7:32 utc | 82

Ridiculous that b is still pushing his anti-hydroxychloroquine crusade, even though he's out of his depth in this matter. What's the point for that sideshow, it doesn't seem like a b thing to do. Many, particularly oldhippie, have well-explained the drug trials apparently designed to fail. Many have explained the proper drug tests conducted, and that hydroxychloroquine is widely used by doctors, in particular in China, and appears to be effective as an early treatment of Covid-19.

He just sticks at the very end of an otherwise excellent report. Trollish, Twitterish behavior, but perhaps we're all damaged by excessive social isolation these days.

Posted by: fairleft | May 12 2020 7:48 utc | 83

"[...] But recent reports suggest that the virus circulated much earlier, and not only in China, than was previously known."

Indeed.

The shuttering of the economy was too little too late and may turn out to have been an exercise in futility.

An expensive exercise in futility.

We know that by the time a virus manifests, infections are far more spread than the single individual showing symptoms.

Polls and research of the past several weeks indicated that infections ran at a much higher rate than indicated.

Hence too, at least in part, the reason Cuomo is finding that new infections are overwhelmingly from people that had already isolated at home.

It is arithmetically difficult to get ahead of a virus that has already propagated through the population by mandating a blanket shuttering of the economy.

Posted by: guidoamm | May 12 2020 8:02 utc | 84

BM #72

I assume the transfer to humans is not also by eating dung ...?
(Maybe from the horse licking its fur, human touching the fur, then touching eyes-nose-mouth.)

Not tried that culinary delight.... but shovel lots around my orchard and compost processes. Seriously though feeding a horse a carrot or apple is sometimes a sloppy business as they do get drooly of the odd delight.. They also roll about a bit to scratch and end up with dung spread through fur etc. Shoeing horses is a shitty business too at times. Shovelling out the stables spreads dust in the air, bagging dung gets close to skin when tieing off the bags etc etc. Assisting a birthing is pretty much vital and that is a moist exercise. I guess some people get close to horses... I love to give them a cuddle.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 12 2020 8:11 utc | 85

Jen #71

Thank you,

Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and rightdoing,
there is a field.
I'll meet you there.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | May 12 2020 8:30 utc | 86

Latest on hydroxychloroquine. Positive signs from testing, of course as an early treatment.

https://freewestmedia.com/2020/05/12/new-studies-support-hydroxychloroquine
-treatment-for-covid-19/

Posted by: fairleft | May 12 2020 8:32 utc | 87

@all

I just deleted some 30 comments on this thread.

21 of those were from first time commentators with fake names and email addresses who come through a proxy network to post general nonsense or unfounded conpiracies about the issue. They are obviously part of a campaign that has now been running for weeks.

The others were one anti-semite who I had already banned years ago, a copy of a long article from the web,
promotion of medical advice that is dangerous and useless and general insults.

Posted by: b | May 12 2020 8:50 utc | 88

Richard Steven Hack @ 76
Good to know your doing well ! Sounds like you’v got the right attitude.
You probably know this, but for others—— the soles of your shoes can transmit the virus so spray with anti viral when coming out the ‘John’
Don’t forget the more sun you get the better. I notice people are looking dreadfully white at the moment ! remember no matter what the government do or say it is perfectly possible to organise our life down to zero chance of infection ! Just to spite the genocidal maniacs!!
Plus lock down with a good women, no complaints here.

Posted by: Mark2 | May 12 2020 9:09 utc | 89

Or even better — a bad women !!!

Posted by: Mark2 | May 12 2020 9:11 utc | 90

@ b | May 12 2020 8:50 utc | 89

For the first time I made comments about hydroxychloroquinone, advocating its usefulness as a Covid-19 treatment. And you did not censor any of my posts for it. Thanks and compliments for attempting to stay reasonable and erring on the side of caution.

So there, detractors.

Only on one occasion did b delete a post by me, when I worded a post in a way that made it look like a blanket advertisement for vitamin D as a panacea for Covid-19. When I later reformulated that post by referencing the discussion in the British Medical Journal and literally quoting the swedish medical doctors who made the claims about the relevance of vitamin D deficiency that I had presented, then that information was left untouched by b. So it matters how information is presented. Look in the mirror before blaming the owner of the site.

Also consider that posters here are anonymous and all liability for publishing false medical claims falls with b. I am not sure, but I do not doubt for a minute that Germany, perhaps even the EU has laws against false medical claims. Anybody remembers the "forbidden to claim that water hydrates hysteria"?

Posted by: Lurk | May 12 2020 9:27 utc | 91

B @89
Thanks for that timely input and explanation, clearly some critical people here view this site as a game not taking the subject matter seriously. People are dying out there, people are trying their hardest to hide the truth, that is reflected on this blog ! Having seen what the lobby groups have done to Labour, media and basicly most of society including the internet, I admire you vigilance and tinacicty long may it last !

Posted by: Mark2 | May 12 2020 9:31 utc | 92

@ Trauma2000 | May 12 2020 9:13 utc | 92

I must say that I have been suspecting the same, from early on in the development of the pandemic. It is difficult though to accurately substantiate hunches into uncontrovertible arguments based in fact. Crying wolf too quickly risks being heaped together with the "5G Corona Conspiracy Crazies" who have been receiving loads of negative attention by gloating mockingbird media outlets. I would almost be inclined to think that Bill Gates personally paid for mobile phone antennas to be torched. Now there's a conspiracy..

Anyway, it appears that these retrospective analyses of samples from "old" cases are mostly initiatives by independently acting doctors and medical scientists. All the national security circles and national and international organized health bigwigs, who ought to be right on top of this, are strangely mum. It's not really much of a talking point in the mass media either, while unbased claims by Trumpeo are copied without flinching.

Posted by: Lurk | May 12 2020 9:42 utc | 93

Thank you well informed commenters for great links.

Posted by: Jezabeel | May 12 2020 9:44 utc | 94

uncle tungsten @ 86

I guess some people get close to horses... I love to give them a cuddle

indeed. and what kid hasn't lifted his dog's lip to investigate the juicy gums underneath? it's inherently beneficial to grow up with pets, and with farm animals, even better. yep, nothing like some dirt under the fingernails.

but it seems a sterile world is our future, as an unnatural fear of the microorganism encroaches. the new age of facemasks, hand sanitiser, plastic gloves, and less human contact in general, is upon us. i see that silicone sex dolls are getting more and more popular as well...

...which makes me think of types like 'Mark2' who's been squealing like a stuck pig for weeks now...now terrified about the germs on his shoes, though, thank god, still ready to bunk down with 'a bad women.'

LOL!

Posted by: john | May 12 2020 9:58 utc | 95

Estimating virus age based on the number of mutations is misleading.
It is because of how natural selection works.
In a steady state the genome is close to optimum and most of mutations are harmful so individual viruses with significantly mutated genome are culled. In fact majority of mutations that are not negatively selected are ones that change nothing - ones that change inactive parts of the genome. Probability of mutation that is useful is extremely low, because most obvious improvements are already done.
On the other hand, when environment changes, for example if a virus somehow gets into a new host, new possibilities open. Old optimum is no longer valid. There are some new easy adjustments that can be made. In that case mutations that improve the genome are favorized over those that change nothing. But as soon as most crucial makeshift adjustments are done the situation is back to normal - there is new optimum, different form the previous one and observed mutation rate falls.

In fact the base mutation rate never changes. It is the filter (natural selection) that changes to allow more or less mutations. What we measure are only the mutations that passed the filter.

I do not have a satisfactory link on topic, sorry. Genetic Algorithm folks focus on improving convergence of their simulations, so they care less about steady state and changing target function. Steady state is usually a wasted computational power in GA world. I can recommend however googling "genetic algorithm mutation rate" and looking at Mathworks documentation site to see typical GA runs. A typical genetic algorithm run somewhat corresponds to transition process when placing some population in new conditions (simulated populations are randomized at start while natural are homogenous). One can see the algorithm converges to the new optimum and once it is reached there is little changes. I certainly recommend playing with genetic algorithms for a while - for ones who have time and skill.
Note: crossover mechanism in viruses is purely random. It does not formally exist but it happens. It is by far less efficient than bacterial conjugation or sexual reproduction.

Posted by: pppp | May 12 2020 10:27 utc | 96

A French-Algerian fishmonger, 42, showed up with COVID-19 at an ER in Paris on December 27, only two weeks after the first cases presented in hospitals in Wuhan. The man had not traveled overseas since a trip to Algeria in August.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643

Posted by: DG | May 12 2020 10:29 utc | 97

Una diferencia del 4% en el genoma es la que separa al hombre del chimpancé, si no recuerdo mal, y que yo sepa nadie defiende una linea descendente entre ambos

Posted by: Frasco | May 12 2020 10:39 utc | 98

In respect of the environment in which our host at this symposium lives, it may be worthwhile to read the article about the German lady lawyer.

What?

Yes. I saw a link posted previously, and set the article aside to read...and just now did. I do not recall who posted the link...

I expect our host either has read or has read some similar stories...and may be tempered by the objective forces implied and also explicit.

Stay outta jail, Herr b !

"Coronavirus lockdown: German lawyer detained for opposition"

UK Column ( tinyurl[dt]om/worpmk8

Evidently the lady was and is being brought to heel, so to speak...and by means that seem to imply a state of exceptionalism.

That's to say > (Cicero) "Silent enim leges inter arma”

The implication being, then, that what we discuss as a virus, is something "other than a disease"... Plausibly it is simply one facet of a war. And one may recall that some of the European States mask their status as Imperial Satrapies poorly in case of war, ahemm.

here's a fragment of the article>

Ms Bahner's presence at the Klinik für Allgemeine Psychiatrie on Voss-strasse in Heidelberg, a university clinic, was confirmed on Tuesday 14 April in a telephone call by journalist Hagen Grell. The clinic told him that it had put out a public statement on the case and refused to allow him to speak to Ms Bahner, but suggested that if he were able to obtain her mobile telephone number, he would be able to call her directly.

The detention has also been reported by local Heidelberg media, regional media and a national news source. Ms Bahner's interview for "incitement to commit criminal acts" is reportedly scheduled for 1 pm on Wednesday 15 April at the K6 Heidelberg Criminal Police Department on Römerstrasse.

On Tuesday 14 April, Attorney W. Schmitz wrote to the German Federal Bar Association that it should take up Ms Bahner's case, if only because the Psychiatric Treatment Act did not in his understanding justify the committal of a person to an institution on the "alleged perception of a police officer" that she appeared confused. He added:

I should not have to add that Ms Bahner's claims of very grave abuse have very untoward connotations of the darkest chapters of German history. The mere fact that she claimed to have been so badly abused was what prompted me to write to you.

Ms Bahner is in the company of over 50 well-known experts in criticising the nationwide lockdown; I would be glad to furnish you wit..."

Posted by: Walter | May 12 2020 11:19 utc | 99

@ brian | May 12 2020 11:14 utc | 102

Dear Brian,

You can post about HCQ on MoA, you just have to be careful and deliberate about the way you word things.

For instance if "youre no doctor", then you should refrain from making statements that imply any amount of medical authority to your claims. Prominently displayed lacking ability to apply proper grammar, spelling and interpunction to your freely voiced advice do no absolve you from the responsibility to not play pretend to be a doctor.

Really, you can say quite a lot of things, quite nasty even, going sofar as suggesting that somebody is an ignorant screaming imbecile even. you simply need to say it carefully and between the lines.

Posted by: Lurk | May 12 2020 11:47 utc | 100

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