Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 02, 2020

Why The U.S. Will Drown In Covid-19 Cases

Here are examples for some of the reasons why the U.S. will now experience a gigantic epidemic wave.

The reasons include ill discipline, ignorance and incompetence, nutty religiousness and racism.

March 20 2020 - BBC

US students party on spring break despite coronavirus

Crowds of US university students flocked to Florida for their spring break, defying recommendations from the federal government and Center for Disease Control (CDC) over the coronavirus outbreak.

National health officials are advising against gatherings of 10 or more people.

April 1 2020 - NYT 

44 Texas Students Have Coronavirus After Spring Break Trip

Two weeks ago, amid the coronavirus pandemic, about 70 students from the University of Texas at Austin partied in Mexico on spring break. The students, all in their 20s, flew on a chartered plane to Cabo San Lucas, and some returned on separate commercial flights to Texas.

Now, 44 of them have tested positive for the virus and are self-isolating. More students were monitored and tested on Wednesday, university officials said, after 28 initial positive tests.
...
Students at the University of Tampa, the University of Wisconsin-Madison and other colleges have tested positive after returning from spring break trips to Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and elsewhere.

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January 30 2020 - New England Journal of Medicine

Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany

We are reporting a case of 2019-nCoV infection acquired outside Asia in which transmission appears to have occurred during the incubation period in the index patient.
...
[I]t is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.

The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak.

April 2 2020

Andisheh Nouraee @andishehnouraee - 0:49 UTC · Apr 2, 2020

A stunning admission of deadly ignorance from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who says he only just learned that asymptomatic people can transmit #Covid19. “[I]ndividuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad, but we didn’t know that until the last 24 hours.” - vid

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March 4 2020 - NYT

Shadowy Church Is at Center of Coronavirus Outbreak in South Korea

At meetings of the secretive Shincheonji Church of Jesus, worshipers sit packed together on the floor, forbidden to wear glasses — or face masks. They come to church even when sick, former members say. After services, they split up into groups for Bible study, or to go out into the streets and proselytize.
...
Now, health officials are zeroing in on the church’s practices as they seek to contain South Korea’s alarming coronavirus outbreak, in which members of Shincheonji, along with their relatives and others who got the virus from them, account for more than half of the confirmed infections.

April 2 2020 - Bloomberg

Florida Follows Others in Allowing Church Amid Stay-Home Order

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a stay-at-home order after weeks of rejecting calls for such a measure. But like other mandates ranging from New York to New Mexico, it ensures that Floridians can still attend religious services.
...
The order comes after similar steps Tuesday in Texas, another late mover that made an exception for religious worship. Michigan imposed a stay-at-home order with a religious carve-out effective March 24.

Religious gatherings were also exempted from Ohio’s stay-at-home order, issued Sunday by Republican Governor Mike DeWine. Solid Rock, an Ohio megachurch whose Cincinnati location hosted an event for evangelical supporters of President Donald Trump last month, held an in-person service Sunday and said on its website that it would exert a constitutional right to continue meeting.

Other states that allow some exemption for religious services include Delaware, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, according to the Center for American Progress.

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bigger
Charles M. Blow @CharlesMBlow - 11:51 UTC · Apr 2, 2020
My god, I see a disaster brewing…
#COVID19Pandemic #RacialTimeBomb

bigger

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Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on April 2, 2020 at 15:49 UTC | Permalink

Comments
« previous page

As soon as I crunch the numbers ...

You can knock your head against the wall as much as you like.

That response is to my 275.

Do you have anything to say about my 292, where I gave you the numbers?

In 292 I posted "excess mortality" statistics that support the fact that covid is serious, but all you care about is sticking to your assertions. You cut off your nose to spite your face.

Any response to my 292?

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 16:42 utc | 301

@ 227 uncle tungsten... apparently there is a special clause in the bible that looks after wall st! these preachers who can't take a sunday off apparently know this!!

@ 277 jackrabbit... pat lang is nuts... i kind of knew that before, but it is nice to have periodic updates!!

@ oldhippie / juliania... i tend to agree with oldhippie juliania... the mormons are very much like a cult as i see it.. this is not to say they aren't nice people and all that... maybe i am simplifying... we can talk about it more on an ot thread perhaps...

pandemics don't mix with capitalism very well.. that is what it seems to me.. the more capitalistthe society - the more the problem...

Posted by: james | Apr 3 2020 16:42 utc | 302

I'd like to throw this out there for the community to ponder.
As I posted earlier - the economic impact of nCOV in general and lockdowns in particular is going to be enormous.
If we look at the locked down states - they're mostly blue: Washington, California, New York.
These states were going to not vote for Trump anyway.
Now picture this: Trump is going to say - unless a nationwide, federal lockdown occurs before November - that the lockdowns were over-reaction.
The lockdowns in those states were ordered by their governors, not Trump.
By November, the stimulus checks will presumably have arrived.
What are the blue collar voters going to think in those states, in this situation?
And note that I'm not positing 12D chess by Trump necessarily, this could be the blind squirrel finding a nut.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 16:55 utc | 303

john brewster @303

I responded.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 16:56 utc | 304

jackrabbit @ 302

Sorry for my 303. Posts "crossed in the mail".

You're analysis is flawed.

The Covid-19 mortality rates were measured while measures are taken to prevent it's spread. If we lift restrictions, the virus will spread faster - causing more deaths than shown in the stats from NYC.

But, we are on the same page here. I agree that the lockdown makes any "in the wild" calculation impossible.

OTOH, there is a lot of controversy over how to assign cause of death. (Already in this thread, analogies havebeen made to "dying from a bullet" (covid is the cause) and "dying from AIDS" (covid is not the cause).


Covid-19 deaths are not a complete measure of harm or deadliness. Many of those afflicted by Covid-19 will have "lung scaring" (pulmonary fibrosis) that contributes to an early death. Most with pulmonary fibrosis die within 5 years.

I've already discussed this "moving the goalposts". Are you saying no other lung disease has consequences in the survivors? You are selectively pointing only to the harm of covid, and not to the harm of other diseases. I have a cousin who had the misfortune to get Valley Fever. She has been suffering for years. But, according to you, her suffering is not the same as a covid sufferer.




Underlying your analysis is the assumption that Covid-19 is similar to seasonal flu and can be compared to and treated like seasonal flu. This is a false premise. For example: when healthcare systems are overwhelmed by Covid-19 there are knock-on effects that your analysis ignores.

No, I did not say its similar to flu. I said the statistics can be compared to the flu. You seem to be unable to grasp that death statistics are death statistics, regardless of the cause.

IMO those that focus on "excess mortality" are making a case for lifting lock-downs without chaning how we fight the virus. I see that as irresponsible and benefiting Big Pharma.

Well, I can see your POV.

My POV is that feeding the public bullshit statistics and getting them to buy it guarantees that democracy can be trumped at any time by anyone who can hire enough scientific bullshitters and mass media coverage. Just like with climate change, roundup cancers, and cigarette cancers.

Your afraid of "benefitting big pharma". I'm afraid of legalizing an unbelievably intrusive police state - right down to cell phone tracking, and arrest on suspicion with no habeus corpus. (Not to mention mandatory vaccinations lurking in Bill Gates sociopathic brain.)

So I want the statistics to be correct. You can't make good decisions with bad information.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 17:01 utc | 305

What is the overall mortality rate both nationally, and if possible, on a more localized level as we deal with this obvious terrorist crisis? Have deaths which would normally have been attributed to flu, pneumonia, heart disease, diabetes, etc now been broadly categorized as Covid-19 related? If so, are we seeing a corresponding reduction in deaths caused by these aforementioned factors? We hear a lot about how many - if not the vast majority - of those who succumb to this virus had at least one - and often times multiple - pre-existing conditions, so are we seeing a gross spike in overall deaths or a reshuffling of the attributing cause of death with a smaller, more manageable spike in overall deaths?

In one of the Boston-based websites this morning I saw the headline that said something to the effect of Massachusetts now having experienced 150 Covid-19 deaths, which certainly sounds alarming. However, the nation as a whole averages 7,700 deaths per day from all causes, and Massachusetts population of 7 million represents roughly 2% of the total population, so using those numbers as a starting point if we take 2% of 7,700 we would expect - in a normal year, without any sort of "novel coronavirus", there to be approximately 154 deaths per day.

Using that figure, if we take 154 deaths per day (again, using CDC numbers from previous years for all deaths from all causes) and multiply it conservatively by 30 days since the real panic set in regarding this "global pandemic", we would have expected there to have been 4,620 deaths in Massachusetts. What's our actual number of deaths?

Until we understand how the actual number of deaths compares to the statistically predicted number of deaths, we really have no way to grasp the severity - or possibly the dramatic overreaction to - this crisis.

Posted by: information_agent | Apr 3 2020 17:04 utc | 306

You're kidding me, right? 🙄👎

Next time I post something you like, don't use it without giving me credit, okay? At least I don't do weaselry.

Thanks.

Posted by: Circe | Apr 3 2020 17:08 utc | 307

information_agent @ 308

I posted exactly the kind of analysis you are talking about for NYC in john brewster @ 292.

Similar to your reasoning about MA.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 17:13 utc | 308

@ DougDiggler | Apr 2 2020 18:36 utc | 39

"I’ve been following this site since 2014 and have a master’s degree, but I need that “miles traveled” graphic explained to me."

I'm with you; no matter how long I stare at it, it conveys no information to my mind.

Posted by: AntiSpin | Apr 2 2020 21:09 utc | 83
+++++++++++

The point of it seems obvious to me. We are being told to stay home and not to travel---so at to avoid becoming an unwitting vector of the virus. Also to reduce number of trips to, say, the supermarket. So the less traveling is done the better. That means fewer miles traveled. So the fewer miles traveled, the better. Reduced traveling aka miles traveled reduces risk of spreading the virus within a community, and between communities. The logic is that the fewer the miles traveled, the more people are staying home and observing the social distancing guidelines, thus reducing the chance of infecting others.

Posted by: Really?? | Apr 3 2020 17:15 utc | 309

right now the US is projecting at between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths and that the pandemic will crest around mid-April, those figures appear increasingly unlikely though. More importantly, the US bailout is unsurprisingly aimed solely at the too big to fail corporations so the 10 million or so newly unemployed will lose their minimum healthcare from the fraud called Obamacare and within 60-90 days these unemployed people will start defaulting on their Mortgage, credit card, car loan, student loans and other debts then what will happened?

Posted by: Kadath | Apr 3 2020 17:15 utc | 310

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 17:13 utc | 310

I see your analysis, but until we have the total number of deaths from all causes we can't quantify the impact, which is the crux of the issue as I see it. We're absolutely being robbed blind, we're about to lose a lot of what few civil liberties we still have to draconian "anti virus" legislation, and tens if not hundreds of thousands, if not millions of Americans are soon going to be losing their homes, their businesses, and their futures to the reaction to this crisis, and yet we don't even understand the magnitude of the impact it's actually having absent the total number of deaths.

If this turns out to be a pre-planned terrorist event like 9/11, conducted by the same cast of characters who executed 9/11, then by the time anyone coalesces around an understanding of the situation and begins to attempt to push back, it might be too late. That's also not to say that they won't be prepared with follow-up viruses and outbreaks which they can continue unleashing at will to maintain the terror.

Unless and until we understand excess mortality, which really is the metric that's going to make it possible to quantify the actual health and well-being impact of this virus, the only quantifiable measures we'll be able to rely on will be unemployment, foreclosures, poverty, and homelessness.

This is a heist.

Posted by: information_agent | Apr 3 2020 17:21 utc | 311

Apparently one reason Japan has so little testing is because they had been requiring anyone who tested positive - regardless of symptomatic much less pneumonia/serious/critical, to go to the hospital.
Allowing anyone to be tested risked overflowing hospitals really quickly.
However, this rule has been changed - asymptomatic can stay at home.
Richard Parry twitter source
Japan was doing tracking and checking contacts, with the very big *but* noted above.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 17:25 utc | 312

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 16:55 utc | 305

"What are the blue collar voters going to think in those states, in this situation?"

I think it will depend on the situation, how well things appear to have been "handled" by then, allowing for the usual media bullshit, and while there is no real way to do more than speculate to suit ones taste, I seriously doubt it is going to be up to the blue collar folks in those states who will win this next time around. I also have serious doubts whether Trump and/or Biden will still be in the race by then.

The current predicted peak in infections (reading some site today) is in July, thats just when it starts to taper down, not when you can try to get back to "normal", and waaay too many bankruptcies/failures/etc. will already be happened by then, and I see no sign that our leaders are ready or able to try to do much about it. Mostly they are still worried about their own positions.

So I don't claim to have any idea what will really happen, but I don't think it's going to be that orderly. That said, The blue states look far more likely to be getting their shit together by November than the red ones. From what I read today, they look better positioned to handle the coming influx of patients too.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 3 2020 17:28 utc | 313

Since no Western/pseudo-Christian country, run by Right-Wing Cranks for Right-Wing Cranks, is testing enough COVID-19-infected suspects to get a meaningful handle on the total number of infected individuals, then the simplest way to guess the number is to assume that the deaths represent 1% of the infected folks.

. . .

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 2 2020 21:58 utc | 100
++++++++++++++

To get a reliable figure for total number of infected one would have to do a random-sample survey. If you only test "CV-infected suspects" you are introducing a bias and will end up with bogus figures as to what portion of the whole population is infected. it is statistical nonsense like this that is infesting tHE discussion of how lethal the novel virus actually is; thus, there is no reliable mortality RATE. Furthermore, the actual cause of death---that is, basic mortality FIGURES---appears to be being skewed toward the virus, contra standard medical practice in determining cause of death.

BTW, covid-19 is the name of the disease, not of the virus itself.

Posted by: Really?? | Apr 3 2020 17:28 utc | 314

Posted by: Kadath | Apr 3 2020 17:15 utc | 312

Even if the US experienced 250,000 deaths between mid-March, when this was officially declared a global pandemic, and the end of April, then until we know the actual total number of deaths in the entire United States over that same period we can't single out the impact of Covid-19.

March 13th is the day this was declared a pandemic, so 18 days in March plus 30 in April would be 48 days. 48 days multiplied times 7,700 average deaths per day is 369,000 deaths, and that's not even adjusting for normal seasonal spikes in the death rate which would be expected during normal flu and pneumonia months between maybe November and March anyway.

So again, we're flying blind right now while we're having our pockets picked by the usual suspects. We need to take a step back and evaluate our options, and we need to do it two weeks ago.

Posted by: information_agent | Apr 3 2020 17:28 utc | 315

@Bemildred #315
Can you spell out some of the many assumptions you are clearly making?
For example, it appears one assumption is that nCOV is going to get worse for everyone, even unto New York levels.
I can agree nCOV will get worse, but how much worse and how evenly spread is a very big question.
If we take out New York from overall US nCOV statistics, the # infections drops from 245175 (for 330 million people) to 142312. The # deaths drops from 6059 to 3124. And the US nCOV mortality rate drops from 185 to 101 (lower than Germany).
California's nCOV mortality at present is 54/10M pop.
Also, the question I posed is whether the bankruptcies will be blamed on Trump or the respective state governors - the ones who actually ordered the lockdowns.
Again, I'm not saying the lockdowns shouldn't be done per se - I'm looking to get some feedback on what reactions might be.
Obviously I suspect that good cop/bad cop with state governors doing lockdowns as "bad cap". And of course, the hyper-partisan will blame the foe no matter what - but I doubt most blue collar people are this way.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 17:46 utc | 316

Minimizing the pandemic

Where were the libertarian complainers when Trump was proposing to funnel trillions of dollars to Wall Street and favored corporations based on a hundreds of deaths?

As soon as Trump got his crony bailout, he started talking about returning people to work. And we started to see people of all stripes, in MSM and alt-media, making arguments for lifting lock-downs and returning people to work. Suddenly, the virus is minimized.

Those who are now complaining about civil liberties being curtailed and government overreach have NOTHING to say about the trillions of dollars that has just been misappropriated and the hate campaign against China.

US and other Western governments have gamed this pandemic in every way possible. We should not play into their game.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 17:55 utc | 317

john brewster @307:

I have a cousin who had the misfortune to get Valley Fever. She has been suffering for years. But, according to you, her suffering is not the same as a covid sufferer.

1) I never said anything of the sort.

2) Valley Fever is not contagious. It will never be a pandemic.

3) Sensationalism to score points is not helpful.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 18:01 utc | 318

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 17:55 utc | 320

I agree with this 100%. This is a heist being conducted under the auspices of a global pandemic which is in fact a terrorist attack.

Posted by: information_agent | Apr 3 2020 18:02 utc | 319

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 17:46 utc | 318

"Can you spell out some of the many assumptions you are clearly making?"

Well no, not really, as several here like to point out, we don't really have good information.

You asked for an opinion. I assume it is just ramping up and our leaders for the most part are incompetent to handle it, or much of anything else, as their results show.

I have no interest in grovelling over the details of what they might or might come up with or what might or might not happen. I am certainly aware I might be wrong, Putin for example appears to be willing to negotiate with Trump over the oil, I didn't expect that so soon, but then Putin takes his responsibilities seriously, and has some ideas about what they might be. I would be pleased if things came out better, but I don't think it's the way to bet. Mnuchin looks like a deer in the headlights, for example, and really never has shown any competence at anything but grifting.

Newsome here in CA is one of the few who looks like he might have some idea what is needed and who might be willing to do it. And what is needed is massive support for the real economy, local economies, real agriculture, etc. Tourism is toast, and won't be coming back any time soon. Services in large parts the same. Lots of bankruptcies in the Ag sector right now because of Trump's trade war. Supply chain disruptions for some period going forward. The "health care" sector is going to get a royal kick in the pants. One can go on, it's easy. Did you see the interview with Kushner about the medical equipment stache we're supposed to have? This is Trump's senior advisor.

Anyway, that's all I have to say, appreciate the opportunity.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 3 2020 18:10 utc | 320

FYI Please read my comment @152 for more.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 18:13 utc | 321

jackrabbit @ 321

I see you are going to go for escalation instead of convergence. Your red-hot outrage over my comment about my cousin (in a thread where we have been trying to be polite) is classic deflection. You can throw all the outrage you want. I've seen it all before. Outrage is not an argument. Its kicking over the table.

Will you address my point?

You want to add complications for covid sufferers to the bill, but you don't want any comparisons to complications in other lung diseases.

Or do you want to continue playing gotcha? If the latter, we are done here. Is that your intention?

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 18:14 utc | 322

"Based on the genome sequence and properties of the virus, there is no basis to suspect the virus was engineered," said Prof. Richard H. Ebright, the laboratory director at the Waksman Institute of Microbiology and a professor of chemistry and chemical biology at Rutgers University.
https://www.thestreet.com/latest-news/was-the-coronavirus-outbreak-caused-by-a-lab-accident
Ebright gives no details to allow consideration of the very specific reasons given by the Indian research team who offered the polar opposite conclusion. They don't make as much money as he does, but they are each far more specifically qualified and experienced with respect to genetic sequences in viruses. Ebright also gives no insight as to what properties he is referencing or how they indicate it is not bio-engineered. If he is implying it's not not intended as a weapon because it has been no more effective than other viruses (which might have been engineered as well), that argument has been dismissed for obvious reasons by many who frequent this forum.

Now Ebright says: "But Richard H. Ebright, a professor of chemical biology at Rutgers University, told the Daily Caller News Foundation on Thursday that there is a real possibility that the virus entered the human population due to a laboratory accident.
When asked specifically if he believes the virus could have leaked from Shi’s lab in Wuhan, Ebright said: “Yes.”
https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-leaked-wuhan-institute-virology-richard-ebright-shi-zhengli/

Please consider the following. An American virologist who worked in biological warfare for 30 years has advised that the easiest and most cost effective way to create viruses with enhanced weaponization capability is to infect ferrets, let them breed, and look for resulting viruses to find something useful. https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/
If this is true, and there is no reason to doubt him, there is absolutely no way for anyone to discern a virus deliberately created to be a bioweapon in a bioweapon laboratory that has been accidentally released from a virus created (whether accidentally or intentionally) in a bioweapon laboratory for benign or laudable reasons that has been accidentally released. None. And perhaps more importantly, Ebright knows that. Or he knows nothing and has been blowing smoke to reporters...whether intentionally or by virtue of his own lack of information.
There is every reason to suspect the virus might have been accidentally released from the laboratory. There is every reason to suspect there is a certain amount of deliberate salting of information in US mainstream media over these issues. The assertion it cannot have been a bioweapon but might have leaked from the laboratory is not a scientifically supportable statement given the use of live animals to create bioweapons in the first place.

Posted by: Bruce | Apr 3 2020 18:15 utc | 323

"Why then are so many people so god damn adamant about denying what is happening.

Buckle up folks, this party is just getting started!

Posted by: David F | Apr 3 2020 2:43 utc | 181"
+++++++++++++
You label anyone who questions how mortality figure are being calculate as one who is "denying reality." Meanwhile your own comments seem to be based on gut feelings.

Again, DAvid F:
"I haven't read the exact definition [of cause of death], and I'm not going to, and I really don't think it is the important thing right now. In normal circumstances I think there are valid reasons to list all contributing factors when stating why a person died.


Posted by: David F | Apr 3 2020 3:12 utc | 188
++++++++++++++

You seem to be quite proud of refusing to inform yourself as to standard medical practice regarding cause of death as explained in the the U.S. Dept of Health and Human Services' "Instructions for Completing the Cause-of-Death Section of the Death Certificate." This attitude suggests that you set yourself above those in medical practice, who over decades have recognized the need for clear guidance in this question of attributing cause of death. The reason for these instructions is to achieve some level of consistency in determining cause of death.

Your refusal to even read the Instructions suggests that you think rules should be thrown out in an exceptional situation---as determined by you and what you have perceived of the current situation. Apparently you do not perceive that this is a circular argument. The situation may well look exceptional because of failure to adhere to standards in determining cause of death. What is your professional qualification to decide when standard medical practice should be overruled, thus leading to exactly the kind of confusion we are witnessing in how mortality RATES are being reported? It is exactly in a perceived emergency that the temptation to throw out the rulebook should be challenged and standard protocols should be followed. (Which is why drills are so important as prep for emergency situations.)

There is no reason to abandon or disregard standard medical practice in this situation. As the Instructions state clearly: "Accurate cause-of-death information is important To the public health community in evaluating and improving the health of all citizens." It is important to differentiate between those who had previous conditions that were contributory factors in the death and those who did not.

To establish a reliable mortality rate it is indispensable to establish the actual rate of infection in the whole population via random-sample testing. Which, weirdly, has not been done. A German virologist, Hendrik Streeck, makes this point in "Virologe äußert erstmals Zweifel Haben Restaurants und Friseure umsonst dicht gemacht?"

Many "official professionals" are questioning the mortality RATES that are being bandied about. One of them is John Lee, writing in The Spectator, "How to Understand--and Report---Covid Deaths." John Lee is a recently retired professor of pathology and a former NHS consultant pathologist. There are many others.

Posted by: Really?? | Apr 3 2020 18:16 utc | 324

It is worth pointing out that the percentage of positives per total tested remains at 10-15% so really what is going up exponentially is testing. Its not technically a pandemic unless that 10-15% goes up.

Its also worth pointing out that the virus continues to follow the normal track of viruses and that Italy did not...did not experience any excess morbidity due to the virus. If i recall correctly about 120,000 persons die from the pneumonia every year in italy. 14,000 died of covid in Italy so far and that number is likely inflated. Died with covid or from covid are different things. People are positing these numbers before Autopsies. One has to wonder how many died or were permanently injured due to an overreaction by doctors and an overly aggressive response.

That said, the quarantine is not working in the US, perhaps because people do not listen. That simply suggests the need for a better, more targeted approach that people will listen to. Warmer weather is a factor too and its is getting warm everywhere except the upper midwest. Discerning between gains due to weather vs quarantine will be important.

Posted by: alaric | Apr 3 2020 18:25 utc | 325

JRabbit, JBrewster, please relax. Try to think about how you might be misinterpreting each other’s statements. Give each other the benefit of the doubt. Or I’m gonna move you to different tables. ;-)

Posted by: oglalla | Apr 3 2020 18:27 utc | 326

Sorry if this has been posted which I found on Vitchek's twitter.
Just the facts mam.

https://twitter.com/AndreVltchek

Posted by: arby | Apr 3 2020 18:33 utc | 327

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 15:35 utc | 287

You question is quite nebulous.

Are you implying that smoking has a smaller effect on the health of the cigarette smoker than pollution ? Or is your point that pollution is so high that cigarette smoking or not makes no difference on the degradation of health ?

"Conclusions

Chinese children living with smokers or in coal-burning homes are at increased risk for respiratory impairment. While economic development in China may decrease coal burning by providing cleaner fuels for household energy use, the increasing prevalence of cigarette smoking is a growing public health concern due to its effects on children. Adverse effects of tobacco smoke exposure were seen despite the low rates of maternal smoking (3.6%) in this population."

"The connection between air pollution and health hazards is so strong that the director-general of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, calls air pollution the “new tobacco.” Recent estimates show that simply breathing polluted air played a part in the deaths of over 8 million people worldwide, more than the number of deaths from tobacco."

Posted by: Tom_LX | Apr 3 2020 18:41 utc | 328

john brewster @325: ... but you don't want any comparisons to complications in other lung diseases.

The difference is that Covid-19 is caused by a pandemic virus.

The difference is that we have reason to believe that if the virus is treated early then there are far fewer Covid-19 cases.

So immediate and later deaths caused by Covid-19 are preventable in a way that other lung diseases are not.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 18:51 utc | 329

This is the link on YT. Just the facts on CV19.

link

Posted by: arby | Apr 3 2020 18:51 utc | 330

I'll get it..

link

Posted by: arby | Apr 3 2020 18:53 utc | 331

About the narrative that the pandemic is hyped to cover for robbery, that could be, if we assume that the Lords of Capital are really stupid.

Well, OK, they are really stupid, but one would think they are in a position to realize that they are just printing money and giving it to themselves. It is only among the simple plebes (that's us) that a quantity of dollars has meaning. For the Lords of Capital it is all about percentage of market share controlled. Playing this game will inflate away some of the value of cash wealth we plebes have and put it in the capitalists' pockets, but not so huge an amount that it looks like. More critically, this is cranking up the pressure in the debt bubble while giving other countries more reason to unload their dollar reserves. I cannot see how that will turn out well for the empire's capitalist elites.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 3 2020 19:09 utc | 332

I stand by my comment in which I state that no one knows the denominator that would have to be known to establish a mortality RATE. This number is not known because the tests have not been done to establish how many Americans either are now or have been infected (i.e., have antibodies) with the novel virus. That number is the needed denominator in the mortality RATE. (That is before we get to the issue of incorrect or misleading causes of death on death certificates.)

This is widely known but a lot of commenters here don't seem to be able to take this point on board and are making wild predictions and warnings such as "Fasten your seatbelts" plus verbally berating those they disagree with.

It is very clear; don't take my word for it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UO3Wd5urg0

Posted by: Really?? | Apr 3 2020 19:20 utc | 333

@Bemildred #323
Got it. You don't even know the assumptions you're making.
Continued lack of contributed insight.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 19:27 utc | 334

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 3 2020 19:09 utc | 335

These "Lords of Capital" have offloaded most of their bad debts onto the Fed, which means onto the taxpayer. In turn, they've fully loaded their coffers with cash so that once mortgages begin going into default they'll be well-positioned to be buying. And they'll be the only ones with the "capital" to purchase these assets, including all of the businesses both large and small which will go bankrupt during this contrived pandemic.

What if these "Lords of Capital" have decided that they already have enough wealth and now they want to create a permanent class of serfs who can never own, must always rent, can never retire, and who get no health care. What if we've got a dystopian future in store for us that even George Orwell couldn't have imagined?

This is a heist, and money isn't the only thing that's being stolen. Power, control, freedom, and futures are also being stolen right now while we debate IFC versus CFR and collectively wonder if we're actually seeing an increase in deaths or an increase in deaths attributed to "coronavirus".

Again, it's a heist, just like 9/11.

Posted by: information_agent | Apr 3 2020 19:30 utc | 335

@Tom_LX #331
Smoking imparts a specific level and type of pollutants into a persons lungs.
So does air pollution.
One way to understand the relative difference is Minimum Efficiency Reporting Value ratings for filters against said type of pollutant.
Tobacco smoke has a Standard 52.5 Minimum Efficiency Reporting Value of 14.
The tail pipe of a gas burning car has a MERV value of 9.
Air pollution MERV value? Almost certainly lower than 9.
Is Air pollution a major factor for nCOV? It has been pushed about repeatedly on MoA - but the link is more than a little weak.
New York, for example, has the worst nCOV cases in the US by far. New York is not known for its air pollution.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 19:35 utc | 336

@ William Gruff | Apr 3 2020 19:09 utc | 335

If the presumption is correct and comes to pass, which, I believe, is in the making, the game's a different one.
It is not about cash positions but about hard assets. Wealth is always only relative, if I have 1000$ you've got 10000$, then you'll be 10x 'richer' than I, no matter what. In a depression scenario with massive devaluation of assets like housing, with or without inflation, many households, small businesses, farmers ... will fail to meet their financial obligations. Then the funny money they've given to themselves will come in very very handy. They're going to buy up pretty much everything, leaving the plebs with one option: serfdom.

Posted by: Hmpf | Apr 3 2020 19:37 utc | 337

I am not so clear on how printing more money causes hard assets to devalue. My understanding is that currency devalues and hard assets appreciate (at least relative to currency) under those conditions.

As well, feudal economies are inefficient and expensive to maintain. There is a reason why they were supplanted by capitalism, after all. The same is true for slave economies. If the capitalist elites are actually considering trying to turn back the clock to those kinds of economies then they really are stupid and are in for a rude awakening.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 3 2020 19:53 utc | 338

@ c1ue | Apr 3 2020 19:35 utc | 339

That is misleading.
Particle size doesn't tell anthying about toxicity of substances involved - SOx, NOx, formalaldehyde, methylcholanthrene ... are highly toxic/carcinogenic to lung tissue no matter the source. Same is with time of exposure. I don't have any numbers but 30 min/day exposure to cigarette smoke may be well less harmful to humans than 24/7 exposure to air loaded with NOx from traffic.

Posted by: Hmpf | Apr 3 2020 20:06 utc | 339

@ William Gruff | Apr 3 2020 19:53 utc | 341

I should have been more accurate in my writing I believe. I didn't mean printing money devalues hard assets, What I was trying to say is, they give themselves loads of money and by some other means they crash the economy.
Once they've achieved both, which they did to my understanding, then they've got the money and by means of a depression prices for hard assets drop significantly, which in turn allows 'them' to scoop up these assets on the cheap.

Posted by: Hmpf | Apr 3 2020 20:12 utc | 340

Really?? 327

Your projections of what you presume to be what I am thinking are not my suppositions. "Proud of my ignorance", piss the fuck off.

I never said, nor do I think I know more than medical professionals, I also never said, nor do I think we should throw away medical science. What I am saying is, we have an emergency and it needs to be dealt with NOW, before things get worse. Every day that we delay in dealing with this makes it exponentially worse. Later we can investigate and come to more accurate and precise statistics.

Is it your supposition that the vast majority of the deaths are not caused by the virus, and therefore there is no emergency situation? And from this supposition do you then draw the conclusion that a monolithic 1% or NWO is using this fake crisis in order to enslave all of humanity?

Many millions of people have these underlying health conditions and live for years with them, suddenly they come into contact with this virus and they are dropping like flies. Is it your supposition that there is absolutely no correlation or causation here? Yes, I am quite aware that correlation does not ALWAYS equal causation, but most of the time it does. Sometimes there is smoke and no fire, but most of the time when there is smoke there is fire.

The people you cite as having expertise do indeed have that expertise, but among those with expertise, they are in the minority, and they advocate sitting back and waiting to see what happens so as to investigate it more precisely, we don't have time for that right now. This virus is spreading exponentially, people are getting very sick and some of them are dying, the longer we sit back and investigate the more it spreads and the more people that are going to get sick and die.

Lets apply there sit back and investigate attitude towards a small kitchen fire. A small fire starts on your stove, hmm, what is the cause of this fire? what is its rate of spread? what potential impact might this have on my prospective dinner? my stove? One thing for sure is, taking action at this point would be premature, more investigation is the correct action to take.

Meanwhile, the fire has now spread to the entire kitchen wall. Hmm, well dinner is ruined for sure, probably going to need a new stove and paint the kitchen as well. What impact will this have on my kitchen as a whole? While the rate of spread is becoming clearer, I still don't understand the cause, etc. Even you, I presume, can see the folly of this course of action.

I think it reasonable to say that we have a lot of hardship heading our way, and I don't like the prospect of what the near future holds. I sincerely wish it were otherwise, but it is not. Denying reality never made it go away.

You are not dealing with reality, you are dealing with how you want things to be. Frankly, I find you and most people like you spouting their bullshit to be contrarians, mostly simply for the sake of being a contrarian. Talk about being proud of ones ignorance.

Posted by: David F | Apr 3 2020 20:16 utc | 341

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 3 2020 19:53 utc | 341

It could be argued that allowing private interests to control the currency for not only our nation, but for much of the Western world, is already a form of slavery. In case you hadn't noticed, a certain group of people - a tribe, if you will - seem to have accumulated an unimaginably outsized portion of the world's wealth and power already. From industry to media, from government to finance, there seems to be a disproportionate level of representation by this tribe.

So too will you see a similar demographic breakdown were you to analyze the players in and around the currently unfolding global pandemic. From the scribes writing the virus porn articles to the advisers whispering into the ostensible leader's ear, these people are front and center driving the events as they happen...almost as if they'd been planned that way. Of course, we all know that's not possible...right?

Event 201, Dark Winter, Scenario Lockstep, and Crimson Contagion are but four of the extremely detailed and borderline prophetic war game scenarios our benevolent billionaire class conducted in the run-up not only to 9/11 (Dark Winter), but also to the situation we find ourselves in now (Crimson Contagion and Event 201, with Scenario Lockstep having taken place in 2010).

We know their New World Order plans call for a reshuffling of the entire socioeconomic playing fields so as to implement an Elysium (thanks to whomever used that reference earlier in this thread) of society where the haves have all the have-nots have nothing. That's what they're trying to do and we're letting them do it by being paralyzed by fear.

Hopefully there's someone with some sense of reason who can push back, but so far signs are decidedly not encouraging.

Posted by: information_agent | Apr 3 2020 20:21 utc | 342

Norwegian @208

Are you only up to comment 208?

Maybe you'll understand when you've read all the comments.

!!
+++++++++++

I agree with Norwegian.
This blog is becoming unreadable and not worth the time and trouble to post a comment. The rudeness and constant putdowns that are being tolerated makes it a social cesspool. What in the world is going on here? At The Saker blog there is a rule that commenters are not allowed to attack and put down other commenters. If a similar rule is not introduced here this blog will become unreadable and irrelevant because clogged with these self-important, self-righteous, supercilious types and their poisonous comments and pointless personal ripostes. Anyone who seeks to debate with these types soon finds him-/herself attacked with ad hominems.
It is disgraceful. Diese Typen sind unverschaemt. Du musst wirklich etwas unternehmen, zu verhindern, dass der Ton dieses Blogs und damit der Blog selbst total verdorben wird. Denjenigen, die Andere gemein beleidigen waehrend sie selber sich weigern, sich mit deren Ideen oder Auskunft auseinanderzusetzen, muesste mitgeteilt werden, das solches asoziales Benehmen und misliebige, giftige, respektlose Bemerkungen nicht toleriert werden. Kommentieren ist sicher eine Privileg, nicht ein Recht. Was ich jetzt hier auf deisem Thread lese ist eine Kommunikationskloake. Am Ende lohnt es sich nicht hier vorbei zu schauen, ganz davon zu schweigen, dass man sich bemuet, einen ehrlichen und gutgemeinten Beitrag zu leisten. Irgendwie musst Du diese unartigen Kerle---Du weisst, wer sie sind--baendigen und disziplinieren, ehe sie Deinen Blog ruinieren. Er verliert schon bedeutend an Wert als ein Locus, alternative Ideen darzulegen und zu diskutieren---aufgrund der fast ununterbrochenen zwecklosen, haessligen Abschiesserei. Wenn das Kommunikantionsniveau sich nicht bald verbessert, ist dieser Blog in der Toilette, mindestens was die Korona-Angelegenheit anbelangt.

Posted by: Really?? | Apr 3 2020 20:23 utc | 343

Re:Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 15:50 utc | 288

" Lastly, that paper is old and the HIV conspiracy theory basis. It was totally discredited because the 4 "unique" sequences turned out to be 4 nucleotides in length, each.

The notion that they're unique is utter bullshit. Note that RNA/DNA encode for amino acids - and there is a list of known amino acids. The sequence as well as the actual specific amino acid coded is how genetics works - so the likelihood of any functional genetic organism sharing amino acid nucleotide codings with another genetic organism is extremely high - even for the extremely simplistic viruses."

Sorry c1ue, but but I think you are mistaken there on several points.

Quoting from the Results section of that Indian group preprint krypton @285 linked to:

"Insertions in Spike protein region of 2019-nCoV

Since the S protein of 2019-nCoV shares closest ancestry with SARS GZ02, the sequence coding for spike proteins of these two viruses were compared using MultiAlin software. We found four new insertions in the protein of 2019-nCoV-

“GTNGTKR” (IS1), “HKNNKS” (IS2), “GDSSSG” (IS3) and “QTNSPRRA” (IS4) (Figure 2)
. To our surprise, these sequence insertions were not only absent in S protein of SARS but were also not observed in any other member of the Coronaviridae family (Supplementary figure). This is startling as it is quite unlikely for a virus to have acquired such unique insertions naturally in a short duration of time."

Those four bolded 6-8 letter sequences are single-letter amino acid abbreviations, represent 6-8 amino acid (aa) long novel peptide (NOT nucleotide) sequences in the spike protein.

You will recall that it takes a 3-nucleotide base sequence, read off the mRNA by ribosome, to define each aa in the translated protein. In other words a 6-aa peptide chain is built base on the coding by a string of at least 18 nucleotide bases, and a novel 8-aa peptide segment requires a novel 24-base segment in the RNA.

Since natural mutations take place randomly at the individual nucleotide base level, for just one entirely novel 6-aa peptide sequence to arise in the nccov spike protein through random mutation, would require at the minimum, six mutations (at least one change per each aa-coding sequential nucleotide base triplet) over the 18 coding base (mer) RNA span).

Natural mutation is stochastic ("random walk") process, so for even one small six-aa novel peptide span to arise on the virus's spike protein would require ~6-12(?) of the "right" mutations to take place contiguously over an 18 mer (nucleotide base) span of the virus' RNA, would be very low probability and require a long time to occur by random processes.

The odds of finding not one but FOUR(!) of such novel 6-8 peptide sequences, (compared to Sars virus), derived from random mutations the ncov19 spike protein coding RNA regions, become vanishingly small.

How did the Indian group find these novel protein coding RNA segments? Well by now the full ~30,000 mer nCov strain(s) genome(s) has/have been fully sequenced by researchers worldwide and made freely available online genomic libraries that are also searchable repositories for all know genetic data ever sequenced.

Scanning nCov19's 30000 mer length RNA with pattern recognition software that compares nCovid19 RNA with genomic library data to find matching sequences. It is basically the same as scanning a 3000 letter (~6000 word) high school term paper with antiplagerism software to look for any passages that the student may have 'cut and pasted' into there reort.

So this paper reported they found 4 novel RNA stretchs in the NCov19 virus that were not present in the parent SARS virus. These 4 novel segments are separated out in different areas of the protein coding region, and do not match protein coding gene "phrases" for any other known coronaviruses, but acccording to their "antiplagerism software' search results, they DO match known HIV (and other?) gene "passages" from the worldwide genomic data libraries.

If the gist of the this Indian group paper turns out to be acccurate, then it may be true that ncovid19 was indeed a "cut and pasted" bioengineered virus. It would also likely be true that all of the world powers would know well by now that the virus was produced artificially, and NOT mutated naturally.

Posted by: gm | Apr 3 2020 20:23 utc | 344

NO! It's too contagious and too deadly not to have been noticed if it was infecting humans in prior years. This is clear given that it has overwhelmed healthcare systems in Wuhan, northern Italy, Spain, and New York City.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 6:41 utc | 214
++++++++++

Actually, it seems that no testing has been done to establish how many people have antibodies to the novel corona. So it has not yet been established how lethal, nor even how novel, it actually is.

Posted by: Really?? | Apr 3 2020 20:30 utc | 345

Edit: 3rd paragraph from bottom, line 2: "30,000 letter..."

Posted by: gm | Apr 3 2020 20:39 utc | 346

jackrabbit @ 332

OK. One last spin in the barrel.

... but you don't want any comparisons to complications in other lung diseases.

1) The difference is that Covid-19 is caused by a pandemic virus.

2) The difference is that we have reason to believe that if the virus is treated early then there are far fewer Covid-19 cases.

You are dodging the question I brought up. I focused on complications from non-covid diseases to compare that rate to covid. Yet, you refuse to talk about that. All you want to talk about is the "pandemic", when my subject was deliberately limited to problems not caused by the pandemic.

As for causality, does the gunshot victim care what make and model of gun shot him? No. All guns cause wounds, just like all lung diseases cause complications. Your approach is equivalent to gathering gunshot statistics only from people shot by a Glock.

Re 2) Again, you try to shift the topic. The topic is people already impaired by other lung diseases. What does "far fewer cases" matter to someone who is already impaired?

-----------------------

There is so much we agree on that your absolute rigidity on this matter makes no sense to me.

We agree that the death rate is high. (I even did an analysis of that rate that you basically blew off on the grounds that it used "excess mortality".) We agree that the current lockdown approach is wrong, that high-risk people should be the ones locked down. We agree that a massive Wall St. ripoff just happened.

Where we disagree is that you say you are most worried about Big Pharma (Although I'm unclear how that translates to your rigidity on terminology.), while I say I am most worried about a health-based police state. In some earlier thread, I pointed out that this crisis is a perfect instance of the Trolley Problem. That thought experiment creates massive, intractable arguments like the one we're having. Some people put absolute value on saving lives, some on saving the economy, some on saving our democracy - as if all of those are mutually exclusive. Then they fight.

However, in this situation, things aren't mutually exclusive. Nevertheless...

Just as Cato the Elder ended each of his speeches with Carthago delenda est, you have to say "this virus is special" in every post. And I keep saying, this is a another viral disease, somewhere on a spectrum of impact. Its not some special magical plague.

We've argued about excess mortality. (CV deaths are special), and lung impairments (CV impairments are special). You seem to be more interested in arguing about terminology ("excess mortality") and categories (non CV victims complications are irrelevant you say) than in finding points in common.

This is going nowhere. I think we are going to have to agree to disagree.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 20:46 utc | 347

Really?? 336
"I stand by my comment in which I state that no one knows the denominator that would have to be known to establish a mortality RATE. This number is not known because the tests have not been done to establish how many Americans either are now or have been infected (i.e., have antibodies) with the novel virus."

I agree with this, and we wont be able to come up with a reasonably accurate number until all this is said and done.

The mortality rate is not the main issue here. The rate of infection and the sheer number of hospitalizations and deaths is the issue. I do understand the numbers below concerning the infection rate are not accurate because we have not tested everyone, so we cant really know the rate of infection. That being said, those numbers could be higher, they could be lower. The numbers concerning your chance of dying if admitted to a hospital are as accurate as can be expected given the situation. I will admit that they could be higher or lower due to the accuracy of reporting the cause of death.

Also, these numbers are what we have as a result of everything being mostly shut down. How much higher would they be if we had not done this? I don't know, nor does anyone else, but logically speaking they would probably be much higher.

Basically, if you catch the virus, you have a 1 in 20 chance of needing hospitalization. If you need hospitalization, you have a 1 in 5 chance of dying. These are the numbers in the US I am referring to. The 19 in 20 who don't go to the hospital are going to be anywhere from asymptomatic to seriously ill for 1-2 weeks. The 4 in 5 who survive hospitalization are going to need 3-6 weeks to recover, and many of them are going to have reduced lung capacity as a result.

We don't have the facilities, the supplies, the personnel or the equipment to deal with this many sick people. Which means that people who would have survived this with proper treatment will die due to lack of treatment.

The vast majority of americans cannot pay for a hospital stay of 3-6 weeks, they will go bankrupt and lose everything they have.

The insurance industry cannot pay for all those who do have insurance for 3-6 weeks hospital stays, they will go bankrupt.

I think we can all agree that if we were to return to normal and have everyone out and about, with an R0 that is between 1.5 and 3.5, then eventually everyone will catch the virus. If the hospitalization rate is a mere 5% of 327.2 million people, then almost 16.5 million people would be hospitalized, and if 20% of them die then 3.25 million are dead. Given these numbers our entire system collapses. If our system collapses, that is far worse than being inconvenienced for a few weeks or months. Lower the hospitalization rate if you wish, but keep in mind we only have the facilities for about a million people, and we are already running short on supplies and equipment with less than a hundred thousand in the hospital.

So, yeah, I very much feel that given the level of denial from a significant number of people, that statements such as "buckle up, we are just getting started" is entirely justified. I would love to be wrong, but I wouldn't bet money on it.

RE: your post at 346

"I agree with Norwegian.
This blog is becoming unreadable and not worth the time and trouble to post a comment. The rudeness and constant putdowns that are being tolerated makes it a social cesspool. ... It is disgraceful."

Do you not feel that you are contributing to this yourself? I didn't feel that your initial response to me was very civil. I felt pretty insulted.

I will admit my response to that was not very polite, but I did feel it was warranted.

Posted by: David F | Apr 3 2020 21:27 utc | 348

@c1ue

Except those things are happening. There are in fact more extreme weather events. Climate refugees are a thing (the Syrian 'civil war' initially started because of a severe drought). And while it may be debatable whether any specific islands have been depopulated yet by sea level rise, the sea levels *are* going up.

Also, this one in particular: "but temperatures are actually increasing primarily because the daily lows are higher, not the highest temperatures."

Yes, exactly. The temperature across the board is going up, which is what climate scientists have been warning about. You're arguing against a strawman if you think the primary problem is the highs being higher (though it isn't good that they are).

Posted by: Benjamin | Apr 3 2020 21:37 utc | 349

Scary story from Navy Times: An outbreak on a Navy warship — and an ominous sign of a readiness crisis. This problem is much wider than the Theodore Roosevelt.

The whole U.S. military may be about to become unoperational.

Posted by: lysias | Apr 3 2020 21:58 utc | 350

"The world welcomes the arrive of a new type of man..the covid denier..a man who found a sense in its life denying what mostly just see around..but that's what makes him special..to have a place in this world.
Luba @ 226
+++++++++++++

Interesting assumption that everyone is a man! Especially all "covid-19 deniers." (Which I think refers to anyone who questions or seeks to understand any portion of this multilayered social phenomenon we are now living through.)

Posted by: Really?? | Apr 3 2020 22:06 utc | 351

lysias @353:

You say "scary"; I say it's the best news I've heard in quite some time.

Not that I want anyone to suffer from COVID-19, mind you, but the neutralization of the American war machine is unalloyed good news.

Posted by: corvo | Apr 3 2020 22:16 utc | 352

@gm #347
Thanks for the detail correction, however, you've still not successfully demonstrated that the changes occurring are "vanishingly small" in likelihood.

Single strand RNA viruses are shit at correctly reproducing. I read elsewhere that out of the tens of thousands of virii produced in any given infected cell, typically only 10 are viable. The rest are so corrupted as to be worthless for anything.

These 99.99% other variants amplify the mutability capability.

The mutations are then tested via attempted infection/reproduction in other cells to see if they are both viable and more successful than the original virus.

So, if say 99,990 obviously mutated virii are produced for each 10 viable virii, and a single person would see billions of such cells infected - we're already into at least the 10exp14 range of potential variants in just a single infected person or animal.

Is a 6 place mutation really so improbable then? Especially given the fact that there is a testing function, it isn't a solution in search of a problem.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 22:44 utc | 353

@Benjamin #352
Sorry, but the Syrian war started when ISIS, with funding from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE (and others) started attacking Syrian troops and taking over towns.
And ISIS in turn was created because all of the Sunni that used to be in power, were no longer in a Shi'a dominated Iraq. Which situation in turn arose because of the US overthrowing Saddam Hussein.
Only in climate panicmonger world are Syrian refugees a function of climate.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 22:47 utc | 354

@ c1ue | Apr 3 2020 19:35 utc | 339

That is misleading.
Particle size doesn't tell anthying about toxicity of substances involved - SOx, NOx, formalaldehyde, methylcholanthrene ... are highly toxic/carcinogenic to lung tissue no matter the source. Same is with time of exposure. I don't have any numbers but 30 min/day exposure to cigarette smoke may be well less harmful to humans than 24/7 exposure to air loaded with NOx from traffic.

Posted by: Hmpf | Apr 3 2020 20:06 utc | 342
++++++++++

When discussing pollution it should also be considered that viruses can easily piggyback on particulates in the air and travel deep into the lungs. This idea is not original with me. It was mentioned by a microbiologist in a video that I watched. So pollution of any kind is a double whammy when it comes to any viruses floating around. And the particulates clogging up the lungs make it harder for the lungs to rid themselves of both the particulates and the viruses.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/
articles/PMC4177797/

Posted by: Really?? | Apr 3 2020 23:11 utc | 355

A contry were everybody only cares for its own, especially its own proffit, be it monetary, be it career related, of course, find it difficult to understand that a captain cares first fro his crew than his own career....

The closure of educational centers and restaurants causes a decrease in the demand for milk that leads Wisconsin farmers to throw (rather than give them to those who need it) more than 100,000L per day to avoid sinking the market.

https://twitter.com/Reflex_volucion/status/1246034715209076737

At the same time the US has extended its piracy methods already known in Syria to any cargo of medical supplies they can put their big hands on.

Its companion of piracy fatigues in Syria, Turkey, has just stolen a cargo of ventilators from China with destiny to Spain for the hard hit community of Castilla La Mancha.
One wonders where is the WCO since this was not Turkish made material being shipped to Spain, thus not applicale any exporting ban, but a byout made by Spain in China which happened to made scale in Turkey, thus a thievery.
I have the hunch that those ventilators are destined to the US...

In other times we would be already sending our galleons to Constantinopla...but our Foreign Minister is still asking permission in Washigton if we can use the Cuban doctors who were already in Spain pending from validation, in the numbers of 200.

How can one win a war against the Coronavirus with such crippled vasals?
This people take adavantage that most of the population are compasionate, honest and responsible people...but there is a limit to stretching people, especially health workers and families of Spanish taxpayers dying for lack of material...

Next time Turkey asks for something in the EU, funds, whatever.. just block it.
Put the CNI to follow the route of those ventilators, and, in case they finally end in the US by any casuality, start cancelling agreements that allow its military bases here.

This is how you make yourself be respected in this jungle the US has made of the world.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 3 2020 23:38 utc | 356

john brewster @350:

You are dodging the question I brought up.

I'm not dodging any question. I've already said that minimizing the pandemic is wrong and your analysis is flawed. My answers are consistent with my understanding of the virus and the public health issues. You just don't like them.

=
I focused on complications from non-covid diseases to compare that rate to covid.

Once again, your purpose in doing this so is to minimize the pandemic in order to justify lifting the lock-downs.

There's responsible ways to end the lock-downs and irresponsible ways. The irresponsible ways risk causing more infections and more deaths.

I've proposed such plan that is based on what China and South Korea are doing (and some other countries). You don't seem to have much interest in that.

=
There is so much we agree on ...

We have a fundamental disagreement. You're not going to massage that away.

=
Where we disagree is that you say you are most worried about Big Pharma ... while I say I am most worried about a health-based police state.

Wrong! We disagree on the impact of the virus, how to analyze that impact, and the strategy for lifting the lock-downs (as I explained above).

=
We agree that the current lock-down approach is wrong, that high-risk people should be the ones locked down.

Wrong! We never agreed on this. You are pulling a fast-one here. You want to lift the lock-down with a minor change in the 'mitigation' strategy whereas I advocate a major change in strategy: 'virus suppression'. 'Virus suppression' is the strategy of China, South Korea, and other places.

=
You seem to be more interested in arguing about terminology ... and categories ...

Once again, you're trying to score points. I'm not being petty. We have a disagreement on fundamental issues that are then reflected in other areas.

=
... than in finding points in common.

There's no common ground to be found between logic-illogical or right-wrong. Only a muddying of waters.

-
<> <> <> <> <> <> <> <> <>
-

You analysis is flawed as it conflates deaths of different types so as to minimize the threat of this pandemic. And your attempt to pigeon-hole me with "we agree ..." body checks and insulting claims of my pettiness really illuminate the goal-seeking.

It appears that you just want to justify lifting the lock-downs.

We can see why @307:

My POV is that feeding the public bullshit statistics and getting them to buy it guarantees that democracy can be trumped at any time by anyone who can hire enough scientific bullshitters and mass media coverage. Just like with climate change, roundup cancers, and cigarette cancers.

By your way of thinking, corporate power is to be preferred to state power. But we already have a state that blends the two via neoliberal crony capitalism. And, EMPIRE imperatives has caused a deepening in this melding of corporation and State. My, perhaps more cynical, way of thinking is that this unholy alliance of State and corporate power is very willing to sacrifice the "old and infirm" on the alter of commercial interests. Something that pat lang at SST (who spent his life defending America, LOL) as advocated whole-heatedly (see my comment @227) along with a lot of others.

You and the rest might have point EXCEPT THAT there is a much more responsible option that is being ignored: to change from a 'mitigation strategy' to a 'suppression strategy'. The technology to do that has been available for at least 6-weeks.

Naturally, you have nothing to say about my comments @321 and @152.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 23:41 utc | 357

It seems that everybody is receiving pressure from the US to not accept help form Cuban doctors, one wonders why our alleged government of the left is not able to exert its sovereignty as they are doing Italy, France, Andorra and so on...All the more when they accept help from eveyone inculding from those they are allegedly at war with, like China and Russia...and on whom they imposse sanctions which only prejudice us....

https://twitter.com/caribbeannewsuk/status/124573982892436275

That fact that they steal our ventilators and masks through its allied rogue state Turkey is the result of not making them things clear since first moment with the issue of the Cuban doctors...or whatever...You obey them with respect Cuban doctors, and they feel that you will swallow it when they steal your masks and ventilators...and happens that you do...

It´s the same dinamic of the bully of shool yard, you cop with his insults and beating,and the following is that he will steal your snack...old like the world....

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 3 2020 23:59 utc | 358

"You are not dealing with reality, you are dealing with how you want things to be. Frankly, I find you and most people like you spouting their bullshit to be contrarians, mostly simply for the sake of being a contrarian. Talk about being proud of ones ignorance.

Posted by: David F | Apr 3 2020 20:16 utc | 344"
+++++++++
No. Reread my comment.
I most certainly am dealing with reality. Or, I am listening to those who are doing so.

The reality is that we must plan for more than treatment of the ill. In order to do that, a reliable picture of the actual lethality, the actual mortalitly rate of the disease, is needed.
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford U explains this very clearly in the video "Uncommon Knowledge: Questioning Conventional Wisdom with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya" He explains what is needed to get a reliable DENOMINATOR for the mortality rate.

Cited mortality rates fluctuate wildly, from .1 to .01. That is a factor of 10. As Dr. Bhat states, no one has done the serological tests to establish the DENOMINATOR in actual mortality rate of covid-19.
He states: "There is a big difference between planning for 55,000 deaths and 550,000 deaths" in terms of the measures taken that affect the rest of society, the economy.

He notes that Dr. Fauci has cited mortality rates of 10 times that of the flu. Then Fauci backtracked. Absent the needed science, there is no way for Fauci to know what he is talking about, states Dr. Bhat.

Obviously, we must continue to do science and home in on that denominator, so that the cure---shutting down the economy---doesn't end up killing more than the disease. That is the point, and the importance, of getting better figures. You don't seem to grasp this point. We cannot plan if we don't have solid data. It is incredible that no random-sample tests have been done to establish the actual lethality of the disease. This is what they are starting to do at Stanford. Also, Dr. Streeck in Germany.

That has nothing do with treating those who are ill.
But it does have to do with *realistic* planning for more than medical treatment and not killing the patient---the whole society--in the process.

You did state that you would not read the Instructions regarding cause of death. You prefer your own way of looking at it.
You ignore the distinction that has been stressed by many experts between dying FROM the virus and dying WITH the virus. In particular, a country, or a state, or a county, or a city, whose population has great comorbidity is going to see a higher death rate WITH corona than areas with better health profiles. That is just one reason for the importance of autopsies and getting a handle on the cause(s) of death, as outlined in the Instructions for for completing the Blue Form.
You have not responded to my noting that your position is a circular argument.
You respond to my points with general personal insults. You call any attempt to get a more nuanced picture of what is going on---also by scientists and doctors---as "denial." It doesn't matter what you and I think. I can only wonder what your professional qualifications are to be so confident that a general freakout makes more sense than the scientific work of people such as Dr. Bhat to generate the data needed for the most informed responses and planning.


Posted by: Really?? | Apr 4 2020 0:00 utc | 359

With all the curriculum Arantxa Gonzalez Laya could have on International Commerce, she is in fact a Brussels burocrat who made her career mainly working for firms and organizations in Europe, I just do not see her treating with such rogue like Erdogan, or his foreign minister.

Madam Arantxa would fit in her post in a world in peace dedicated to commerce amongst nations under the rule of law, of which she is really an expert, no doubt, but there are no rules anymore, what utility could have a woman expert in commerce with all the face of a nun when most powerful countries in the world have gone outlaw and we fight a pandemic where the last nexus joining the EU and NATO are about to break out?

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 4 2020 0:26 utc | 360

@ c1ue | Apr 3 2020 22:44 utc | 356

Sure. I suppose all sorts of mutations (point, frameshift, others(?)) do occur naturally in replicating viruses, but at least from what I understand, they occur and acccumulate gradually in a random, evenly distributed fashion and steady rate throughout the entire genome of the virus, provided they do not hit areas of the genome that adversely affect the virus's reproduction success. I don't think the paper specifically address random mutation rate ("clock") in "silent" RNA regions of the ncovid virus genomes they studied. Other reports that I have read but but can't immediately put my finger on have indicated that the ncovid19 genome seems rather stable compared with other common flu and cold viruses affecting humans.

But for 'natural' mutations to be highly concentrated only at 4 discreet, short (18-24-mer length) non-contiguous segments of ncov19 viral genome, and not significantly anywhere else in the 30K-mer long ncov19 genome, is apparently quite unlikely. That, at least as what is being hinted. Also heresay reports say protein shape modelling studies indicate the novel mutated RNA code for spike protein regions that may enhance/broaden virus abilty/affinty to latch onto host cell's surface receptors (ACE2 and other outward facing host cell membrane proteins) to facilitate (increase of function?) cell penetration/infection).

Who knows? You might check out a couple recent longish YTs (Sean Atwood's (sp?) channel) where a guy named Paul Cotrell(sp?) goes into this stuff, if you wish to evaluate more/judge for yourself.

Posted by: gm | Apr 4 2020 0:27 utc | 361

after scanning the posts, i tend to agree with a user... might be more fun to watch some movie or something!

Posted by: james | Apr 4 2020 0:45 utc | 362


Your projections of what you presume to be what I am thinking are not my suppositions. "Proud of my ignorance", piss the fuck off.
++++++++++++++++++++++

David F putatively quoting me in 327 as a justification for telling me to piss the fuck off. And other insulting comments of his.
Except, I didn't say this.
I said nothing rude to David F at any time.
Do not misquote, David F.

And it is David F who projects suppositions onto me.
Please also stop doing that. For example, I said nothing about the NWO or some such. Not sure why David F brings up the NWO and other stuff in connection with me.

OK, so David F states:
"What I am saying is, we have an emergency and it needs to be dealt with NOW, before things get worse. Every day that we delay in dealing with this makes it exponentially worse. Later we can investigate and come to more accurate and precise statistics."

Well, it all depends on what is meant by "dealing with this." This seems to set up a false dichotomy, a false zero sum situation, between treating the ill and doing the investigations necessary to get a sense of the true lethality (Dr. Jay Bhattacharya) and the true manner(s) in which the disease is being spread (Dr. Hendrik Streeck). Just two examples of the basic research and data gathering that need to be done. Another one is examination of actual autopsies. It makes zero sense to "later investigate" as a kind of mopping- up action, or to satisfy curiosity. What is the point of that?

Both of these investigators point out that the very basic types of investigations that they are now undertaking should in fact have been undertaken months ago. Both of these are small projects limited in scope from lack of funds.

Both investigators are incredulous that only now are they trying to play catch-up, where national health entities such as the Robert Koch institute in Germany and probably the CDC (I suppose) in the USA should immediately have started these types of data gathering to provide reliable information to policy makers. Then we would not be flying blind, or as blind, as we currently are, and would have an idea of the needed course. Without potentially very destructive overreactions. Instead, the public are hearing vastly different figures all the time, and many different versions of how the virus actually spreads, and this is causing the crisis in confidence that Paul Craig Roberts calls out. This is what leads to wild rumors and the sense that the whole thing is a fake.

Calling for reliable, complete information and data as a basis for analysis and policy making has nothing to do with "denying," and to say that it does is a major category error. And it is a disservice to all practitioners and policy makers. And it is an insult and a g.d. lie.

Posted by: Really?? | Apr 4 2020 0:46 utc | 363

Really??

I am not a doctor, I have no professional credentials, I am just some moron who understands exponential growth, and has eyes and can see, and who also understands basic logic and how to apply it.

I consider a lock down or isolation of the general population incredibly reasonable given the exponential growth of infection; and you think that is a general freakout, and advocate that we spend more time making sure this is indeed a prudent course of action.

Meanwhile, in the amount of time we have spent debating this, another 60,000 americans have come down with the virus, somewhere between 600 and 6000 of them are going to die. That number is doubling every 2 to 3 days. How long should we study whether or not we should have a general quarantine? How many more people getting sick and dying before you feel we can make a prudent decision regarding a lock down?

The actions that need to be taken have already been shown to us, and it is because of people advocating a point of view similar to yours that we find ourselves in this situation, namely, a pandemic. You are literally saying let people keep getting sick and dying until we can be sure with 100% certainty that we are taking the very most prudent course of action.

Isolate everyone now, massive testing of everyone and quarantine of infected persons, treatment for those infected. Once the pandemic is under control, then we can go back to normal but with continued testing and isolation to prevent it from becoming a pandemic again. Once the pandemic is under control, then we can study this virus thoroughly and prevent it from happening again.

WTF is so hard to understand about what I have stated above? What is a credible alternative? Should we put our economy above our lives? Should we let everyone go about their business until literally every single american has contracted the virus and it kills 1% or 5% or more of our population and literally destroys our civilization?

I am done here, you have got to be one of the most dense people I have come across in quite some time. I would say it was fun and have a good night, but it wasn't. So again, piss off.

Posted by: David F | Apr 4 2020 1:59 utc | 364

gm @ 364

Who knows? You might check out a couple recent longish YTs (Sean Atwood's (sp?) channel) where a guy named Paul Cotrell(sp?) goes into this stuff, if you wish to evaluate more/judge for yourself.

See: Is Coronavirus A Bioweapon? Dr. Paul Cottrell

Posted by: p | Apr 4 2020 5:11 utc | 365

Very interesting discussion of the Coronavirus, its possible origins, the geopolitics of its impact, and the broader American hybrid war against China.

THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC AND US HYBRID WAR ON CHINA - WITH PEPE ESCOBAR
https://moderaterebels.com/coronavirus-us-hybrid-war-china-pepe-escobar/

Posted by: ak74 | Apr 4 2020 10:04 utc | 366

One wonders why there is a Spanish Patriot battery in Turkey protecting Turkey from Syrian strikes ( of which Turkey would not need at all to be protected in the first place if Turkey would not be invading and stealing Syrian territory and assets, since Syria has not attacked Turkey ever, just the other way around... ) and then, once protected by us, Turkey, not only unleash a military operation into Syrian territory and put in danger the lives of Spanish citizens by stealing the ventilators in way to Spain...

https://twitter.com/cgpenalva/status/1246222683487916033

I guess any death of citizens in Castilla-La Mancha for lack of ventilators could be balmed on Turkey, which equates, I fear to an act of war....

Why we continue protecting our enemy?

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 4 2020 10:09 utc | 367

The Permanent Representation of Spain to NATO tweeted this just two days ago.

Today, Caliph Erdogan orders to seize our respirators. He laughs at Spain but, above all, at the victims of #COVIDー19.

These are the benefits of belonging to #EU and #NATO.

https://twitter.com/AlexSanchis93/status/1246175856478863361

Have we summoned at least Turkish ambassador to Spain and express an angry complaint and menaced them with something, by any casuality?

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 4 2020 10:18 utc | 368

In short, that NATO countries steal from each other and the US steals medical supplies from everyone while China, Russia or Cuba are helping those who ask for it. Well, it will turn out that everything is just the opposite of how Hollywood painted it.

https://twitter.com/ciudadfutura/status/1246166672450387970

What is the point of being a member of an association to commit crime in which, as you never commit crime, you become always the victim of your associated thugs...

Are we idiots? What is the value of the Spanish government and Spanish military in the international arena, waiters?, as it is indeed that of the whole country once we dismantle our industry to fit into the EU?

We are governed by EU/NATO/US lobbyists, no doubt, you can not but to see that for the respect our nation is being shown into "our block", we have already had an Spanish NATO secretary and EU Foreign Affairs representative, and both former presidents Aznar and Gonzalez went to occupy posts at boards of directors of US billionaires´ corporations...all that has a price, of course, selling our sovereignty and respect...and now the lives of the Spanish people.

Is it not time to go considering changing sides to the association which respects what remains of international law and believes in international cooperation.. even interblocks when in opposite sides...

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 4 2020 10:28 utc | 369

Yes, H.Schmatz, deeply, deeply infuriating, to say the least.

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 4 2020 12:15 utc | 370

gm @ 364

""for 'natural' mutations to be highly concentrated only at 4 discreet, short (18-24-mer length) non-contiguous segments of ncov19 viral genome, and not significantly anywhere else in the 30K-mer long ncov19 genome, is apparently quite unlikely.""

I agree.  The important thing now is to deal with the problem at hand but I think it is useful to discuss the origin to better understand the response.

The use as a bioweapon to up the ante in the trade war was in character (consider Libya, Syria, Yemen).

Coronaviruses such as SARS were thought to be regional problems and not pandemic in nature like influenza

China recognized it for what it was and took extreme measures.

The US got unexpected blowback from this enhanced virus.  Think dual use and gain of function and essentially became scared shitless.

I don't think the lockdowns and economic meltdown were planned.

But of course the response is typical, witness the direction of the bailouts.

Posted by: financial matters | Apr 4 2020 12:26 utc | 371

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763982

March 27, 2020
Convalescent Plasma to Treat COVID-19
Possibilities and Challenges

In this issue of JAMA, Shen et al report findings from a preliminary study of 5 severely ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who were treated in the Shenzhen Third People's Hospital, China, using plasma from recovered individuals.1 All patients had severe respiratory failure and were receiving mechanical ventilation; 1 needed extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and 2 had bacterial and/or fungal pneumonia. Four patients without coexisting diseases received convalescent plasma around hospital day 20, and a patient with hypertension and mitral valve insufficiency received the plasma transfusion at day 10. The donor plasma had demonstrable IgG and IgM anti–SARS-CoV-19 antibodies and neutralized the virus in in vitro cultures. Although these patients continued to receive antiviral treatment primarily with lopinavir/ritonavir and interferon, the use of convalescent plasma may have contributed to their recovery because the clinical status of all patients had improvement approximately 1 week after transfusion, as evidenced by normalization of body temperature as well as improvements in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores and Pao2/Fio2 ratio. In addition, the patients’ neutralizing antibody titers increased and respiratory samples tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 between 1 and 12 days after transfusion.

Posted by: financial matters | Apr 4 2020 12:44 utc | 372

@Hmph #342
I agree, although what you state makes tobacco smoke almost certainly worse than automobile exhaust.
Which was my point to start with: it seems unlikely that air pollution is worse for lung health than smoking.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 4 2020 14:08 utc | 373

@gm #342
You're still basing your views on chance - as opposed to function.
Yes, I agree that having 4 mutations pop up in the ACE2 spike attack mechanism of nCOV is unlikely from a single mutation perspective.
However, I've already pointed out that the number of mutations occurring in a single strand virus are already very large.
The 2nd point - which you didn't address - is the fitness function. If these 4 mutations are what make nCOV what it is - then that's a totally different story, particularly if they are cumulative. For example, 1 mutation makes nCOV 10% more effective attacking human ACE2 cells - this is a fitness function pass which accelerates nCOV evolution, and this particular mutation is no longer random because whole new populations now begin the process anew from this altered state.
As for Cotrell: he also retracted a paper that said HIV/nCOV.
He's been making hay while the sun shines - I don't give much credence to those with such transparent self-promotion motives.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 4 2020 14:17 utc | 374

@Really?? #358
That's an interesting thesis, but I'd want to see some data on the particulate in/out of human lungs before giving much credence to it.
In particular:
how is the mechanism for nCOV piggy backing on particulates in the air (air pollution) different from say, nCOV piggy backing on water vapor?
Sure, I can see the difference with liquid water - particulates can go farther.
But there needs to be some significant amount of particulate in/out from lungs first, then there needs to be significant improvement in nCOV latency or transmissibility.
There's also a question of viral load: there's no debate that you *could* get nCOV from a single virii, but there's a lot of question whether you are likely to get really sick from a single virii vs. the thousands/millions in a coughed/sneezed droplet.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 4 2020 14:22 utc | 375

This article at ProPublica supports most of the points I attempted to make in my exchange with David F, including those concerning the relevance of the Instructions for completing the Blue Form, which emphasize the importance of listing ALL causes of death, not just the assumed proximate cause:

[title of story]"Early Data Shows African Americans Have Contracted and Died of Coronavirus at an Alarming Rate"

[Squib]

"No, the coronavirus is not an “equalizer.” Black people are being infected and dying at higher rates. Here’s what Milwaukee is doing about it — and why governments need to start releasing data on the race of COVID-19 patients."
++++++++++++++++++++++++

In the story title, "early data" refers to data that are now being collected. The story highlights how a lack of really early data---timely data that could have been derived from random-sample testing and other types of data collection, before the virus started to actually sicken people and take their lives---would have made a big difference in the effective response.

To wit:
"Milwaukee, one of the few places already tracking coronavirus cases and deaths by race, provides an early indication of what would surface nationally if the federal government actually did this, or locally if other cities and states took its lead.

Milwaukee, both the city and county, passed resolutions last summer that were seen as important steps in addressing decades of race-based inequality.

“We declared racism as a public health issue,” said Kowalik, the city’s health commissioner. “It frames not only how we do our work but how transparent we are about how things are going. It impacts how we manage an outbreak.”

Milwaukee is trying to be purposeful in how it communicates information about the best way to slow the pandemic. It is addressing economic and logistical roadblocks that stand in the way of safety. And it’s being transparent about who is infected, who is dying and how the virus spread in the first place.

Kowalik described watching the virus spread into the city, without enough information, because of limited testing, to be able to take early action to contain it."
+++++++++++++

And, it still can make a big difference in the effective response going forward.

Posted by: Really?? | Apr 4 2020 15:19 utc | 376

This half hour video seems like a good discussion on the uncertainty of the immunology of the virus and how this affects policy decisions.
---------------------

As COVID-19 spreads globally, populations who survive their illness will become immune. Mayo Vaccine Research Group Director Gregory Poland, MD, discusses antibody responses, duration of immunity, vaccine safety, and the prospects for using convalescent serum to passively immunize people unexposed to SARS-CoV-2.

https://edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/video-player/18350099

Posted by: financial matters | Apr 4 2020 15:26 utc | 377

Re: amount of virus exposure determining severity of case

Is this all speculation or is there hard science which shows diminished severity of case with lesser exposure?

It stands to reason that because this is a novel virus, the natural immune response would show very little if any ability to fight it off, or, similarly the time taken for the immune system to register a response would allow the virus to invade and multiply unencumbered by a fight from the immune system. Thus, it makes little logical sense, that the amount of a novel virus would influence severity of case.

It seems it would rather be the case that once the virus has replicated itself in the host cells to a certain level or threshold then the immune system would mount its defense. In other words, initial entry by the virus makes little difference, but rather it is the replicating of the virus to a certain level in the cells which triggers the immune response.

This seems more logical. The ability of each of our immune systems is another question, once the defense is mounted, and this seems to be the great question for immunologists. Each individual's response is no doubt different.

Posted by: NemesisCalling | Apr 4 2020 17:07 utc | 378

NC @ 382

I think you're right

I think in the video of the South Korean infectious disease doc he talked about this.

He was saying that the lower exposures can lead to the longer incubation times people are seeing like up to 14 days.

I think he said the infectiousness starts a day or two before symptoms.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

Posted by: financial matters | Apr 4 2020 17:15 utc | 379

I'll take nutty religiousness over nutty, secular mass immigration and worship of foreigners.

Posted by: Ace | Apr 5 2020 6:02 utc | 380

@c1ue

"Only in climate panicmonger world are Syrian refugees a function of climate."

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/3kw77v/the-drought-that-preceded-syrias-civil-war-was-likely-the-worst-in-900-years

Posted by: Benjamin | Apr 6 2020 1:32 utc | 381

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