Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 02, 2020

Why The U.S. Will Drown In Covid-19 Cases

Here are examples for some of the reasons why the U.S. will now experience a gigantic epidemic wave.

The reasons include ill discipline, ignorance and incompetence, nutty religiousness and racism.

March 20 2020 - BBC

US students party on spring break despite coronavirus

Crowds of US university students flocked to Florida for their spring break, defying recommendations from the federal government and Center for Disease Control (CDC) over the coronavirus outbreak.

National health officials are advising against gatherings of 10 or more people.

April 1 2020 - NYT 

44 Texas Students Have Coronavirus After Spring Break Trip

Two weeks ago, amid the coronavirus pandemic, about 70 students from the University of Texas at Austin partied in Mexico on spring break. The students, all in their 20s, flew on a chartered plane to Cabo San Lucas, and some returned on separate commercial flights to Texas.

Now, 44 of them have tested positive for the virus and are self-isolating. More students were monitored and tested on Wednesday, university officials said, after 28 initial positive tests.
...
Students at the University of Tampa, the University of Wisconsin-Madison and other colleges have tested positive after returning from spring break trips to Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and elsewhere.

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January 30 2020 - New England Journal of Medicine

Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany

We are reporting a case of 2019-nCoV infection acquired outside Asia in which transmission appears to have occurred during the incubation period in the index patient.
...
[I]t is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.

The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak.

April 2 2020

Andisheh Nouraee @andishehnouraee - 0:49 UTC · Apr 2, 2020

A stunning admission of deadly ignorance from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who says he only just learned that asymptomatic people can transmit #Covid19. “[I]ndividuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad, but we didn’t know that until the last 24 hours.” - vid

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March 4 2020 - NYT

Shadowy Church Is at Center of Coronavirus Outbreak in South Korea

At meetings of the secretive Shincheonji Church of Jesus, worshipers sit packed together on the floor, forbidden to wear glasses — or face masks. They come to church even when sick, former members say. After services, they split up into groups for Bible study, or to go out into the streets and proselytize.
...
Now, health officials are zeroing in on the church’s practices as they seek to contain South Korea’s alarming coronavirus outbreak, in which members of Shincheonji, along with their relatives and others who got the virus from them, account for more than half of the confirmed infections.

April 2 2020 - Bloomberg

Florida Follows Others in Allowing Church Amid Stay-Home Order

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a stay-at-home order after weeks of rejecting calls for such a measure. But like other mandates ranging from New York to New Mexico, it ensures that Floridians can still attend religious services.
...
The order comes after similar steps Tuesday in Texas, another late mover that made an exception for religious worship. Michigan imposed a stay-at-home order with a religious carve-out effective March 24.

Religious gatherings were also exempted from Ohio’s stay-at-home order, issued Sunday by Republican Governor Mike DeWine. Solid Rock, an Ohio megachurch whose Cincinnati location hosted an event for evangelical supporters of President Donald Trump last month, held an in-person service Sunday and said on its website that it would exert a constitutional right to continue meeting.

Other states that allow some exemption for religious services include Delaware, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, according to the Center for American Progress.

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bigger
Charles M. Blow @CharlesMBlow - 11:51 UTC · Apr 2, 2020
My god, I see a disaster brewing…
#COVID19Pandemic #RacialTimeBomb

bigger

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Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on April 2, 2020 at 15:49 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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Today 4-3-20, Covid is the third cause of death in USA, with around 1.100 deaths per day is only behind heart disease (1.774/day) and cancer (1.641/day), but in two weeks is expected to be clearly the leading cause of death in USA as it is now in Italy and Spain. It is a matter of when start to decrease the number of deaths to see if will be, or not, the leading cause of deaths in absolute terms (I expected and I think it will not)

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article241677891.html

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

A lot of people are still saying it is a hoax, I think they will continue saying this even if connected to a ventilator (/sarc)

Posted by: DFC | Apr 2 2020 22:11 utc | 101

Millions of Americans cannot buy food without traveling further than two miles.

The two separate independent uncoordinated White House efforts to meet the virus are led by Mike Pence, a demented fundamentalist Rapture bound Bible banger and by Jared Kushner, a feeble-minded ultra-orthodox Jew. Trump himself is any flavor of nutso you can think of. His only religion is himself.

Good to see someone in Germany figuring out that USA is insane. How about next you throw the occupation troops out and quit NATO?

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 2 2020 22:12 utc | 102

"Suppose a person has an underlying illness, that will eventually prove fatal. If I shoot that person in the head are we going to say that the cause of death was the underlying illness, or are we going to say it was the bullet to the head? Many people live with underlying illnesses for years. The criteria that should be used is: why did that person die right now? If what killed them right now is a viral infection, then the fact that the underlying illness would have killed them eventually is meaningless, the cause of death is the viral infection." Posted by: David F | Apr 2 2020 20:19 utc | 67

Precisely. Very excellent analogy I should have thought of. Well done.

You demonstrate the ridiculous logic of the virus deniers - including that German virologist people were flogging yesterday and any other alleged "scientist" who touts the same party line. These guys have their own personal agendas that relate to how much money they're getting and also frequently their own need to be a "denier" just to get their name in the papers - or in comments on a blog or Twitter, like the idiots here.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 2 2020 22:14 utc | 103

Jim @ 52

Why is moon of alabama, not including the fact the fatality rate for those under 25 without immune compromised system is zero.

because it is not zero:

4 days ago, first infant in U.S. died. ( Illinois )

First known US youth coronavirus death: Minor, age 18, dies after testing positive in Los Angeles County LINK

2 days ago, Two COVID-19 infected children aged 12 and 13 died in Belgium

In UK a female 21, with no pre-existing health condition died

2 days ago, a 18 year old died in Canada

50% of the cases in Ontario, Canada are under age of 40

30% of US COVID-19 Cases are between 20-44 (March 19)

and the rare cases of infants and a new born in China and the U.S.:
Newborn baby who died tested positive for COVID-19 -Hartford CT

The under 20s are not immune.

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 2 2020 22:17 utc | 104

@Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 2 2020 20:30 utc | 74

This comment was referred to PokeTheTruth 61

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 2 2020 22:17 utc | 105

Correction for West Virginia: church services are totally closed except for the pastor/priest/other and one other person at the rear, and services/sermon can be put on Facebook video streaming.

Posted by: observer | Apr 2 2020 22:24 utc | 106

#105 "You demonstrate the ridiculous logic of the virus deniers"

Alas, once the virus deniers are no longer able to defend their dumb logic their next backstop is that the pandemic is all China's fault.

Posted by: krypton | Apr 2 2020 22:27 utc | 107

Posted by: MarkU | Apr 2 2020 21:57 utc | 99

You are missing the point entirely, my comment was addressed to PokeTheTruth and can only be read in that context. The question was rhetorical in nature.

I did not address your (rhetorical) questions, but the opinion you stated in the first sentence:

Everything that you are saying about COVID-19 deaths could also be said of the deaths attributed to flu.

So again, you are wrong. You cannot compare a disease that we have a vaccine against, with the one we do not have any defense yet. Well OK, you *can*, but what is the point?

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 2 2020 22:30 utc | 108

The existence of asymptomatic carriers means that even after a total lockdown, they will be able to reinfect others (presumably at a lower rate) once everyone is allowed ut again. Presumably that is what has happened in the county recently locked down again in China. I imagine citizens of the west will be most displeased when that happens in the UK, Germany etc.

If only symptomatic and vulnerable individuals were quarantined, then the asymptomatic carriers would be infecting others they met, but a Korean-style 'contacts of infected' could rapidly identify the carriers, alowing them to be isolated.

Which option is better is a question for discussion.

Posted by: Ken Garoo | Apr 2 2020 22:32 utc | 109

and as the small business owners drown the banksters get richer.

Wall Street Wins Again: Forces Treasury To Double Rate On Small Business Bailout Loan

Sick. Unconscionable. . There is a shortage of lamp posts and piano wire.

[.]in a press conference late on Thursday, Steven Mnuchin said that he will double the interest rate on the SBA loan from 0.50% to 1.00% in order to appease banks seeking higher interest rates to participate in the Treasury's bailout program and lend money to the same taxpayers who bailed them out 12 years ago.

These are same banks, mind you, that just sold all $1.6 trillion in securities to the Fed to expand their balance sheets capacity in the past three weeks, and which also just benefited from the Fed's decision to remove Treasurys and deposits from the Fed's SLR test, freeing up another $1.6 trillion in liquidity.

And yet, despite all this, these banks - which include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo Citigroup, Truist Bank and PNC - which were bailed out in 2008 and again bailed out 3 weeks ago with the Fed's various alphabet soup programs, couldn't agree to give Main Street a helping hand, and instead of offering loans at a modest 0.5%, demanded no less than 1%, which is 75-100 bps above where they can borrow cash from the Fed. Because charging America's middle class an 19.95% credit card APR is not enough, and anything less than 1.0% on a loan that is explicitly backstopped by the Treasury would be uneconomical.[.]

My harping question: Why would a small business owner, forced to close, and without a cashflow take on more debt?

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 2 2020 22:34 utc | 110

Another note: People keep arguing about the *overall* fatality rate of the virus. We knew from China early that the rate was low - in absolute terms. But it is high in the primary at-risk demographics, and it definitely is higher than the ordinary flu (despite what the idiots are saying.)

So it's almost *irrelevant* what the *overall* fatality rate is. What matters is the effect on the at-risk population, which *alone* can overwhelm the medical system and thus inflict higher death rates in general for all other causes and the third order effect on the economy which would occur.

This is adequate justification for the control measures the governments are using - even if it might have been better to be better prepared to test-isolate-trace than the governments in fact were. Those mitigation procedures as used in South Korea might have been sufficient - but we only know (or *think we know*) that now and in any event the US was not prepared for either remediation method - China's or South Korea's.

But a lot of people want to distract from that fact by arguing about the *overall* fatality rate. They have an agenda, too - either that or an obsession with numbers.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 2 2020 22:34 utc | 111

Doug Diggler @ 39:

The "miles travelled" map is an indicator, however general and approximate it may be, of those states and counties that went into lockdown early and may be able to contain the spread of COVID-19 disease beyond their borders.

The states and counties that are not restricting travel tend to coincide with those administrative units that are implementing quarantine / self-isolation measures in a half-hearted or idiosyncratic way (by deeming shops and church services as essential services, and thus not subject to opening / closing hours restrictions) or where general knowledge about COVID-19 is still poor.

You would need to see other maps of the US' demographic characteristics with respect to age, ethnicity, religion and socioeconomic status, and map the "miles travelled" map to see how different states and counties' reactions to the spread of COVID-19 might impact on different groups of people.

Charles M Blow's Tweet that the spread of COVID-19 might hit black American populations hard, based on the comparison of the two maps in B's post, looks alarming - but that comparison is based on certain assumptions that you and I are not privy to, and some of these might be false or no longer hold true (though they once were true in the past). People in the US Deep South might well be at high risk for COVID-19 infection but we need to consider where they also live: people living far apart in rural regions, and dependent on their own efforts and their neighbours' efforts for support, might be less at risk for the disease than people in densely populated areas.

B's post is asking us to assume a great deal and I agree with you that we must be sceptical about the selective use of graphs and maps to push a point.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 2 2020 22:35 utc | 112

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 2 2020 22:01 utc | 101

Actually the reason is human nature: No individual human gives a damn about any other human - unless that other human is personally important for reasons of money, power or sex.

Speak for yourself.
Majority of people are not fucking psychopaths.

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 2 2020 22:36 utc | 113

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 2 2020 20:48 utc | 77

Hey kid, you can be much nicer and kinder... I'm much older than you. In Chinese we said "I've eaten more salt than you eat rice" Go figure what I mean damn freaking smart arse!

Anyone know why KN95 banned?

Posted by: JC | Apr 2 2020 22:39 utc | 114

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 2 2020 21:58 utc | 100

i.e. Total Infections = Total Deaths x 100.

You are missing something important. It takes ten to eleven days from infection to a positive test result being reported and about 24 days from infection to death. With US growth rates the number of cases could grow a thousandfold in 24 days.

See my comment from March 11th: More than 40,000 Americans may already be infected

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 2 2020 22:46 utc | 115

Another example of incompetence and meanness:

Multiple San Francisco supervisors will call on the city to take action following the first confirmed COVID-19 case in a city homeless shelter.

As I said before, they could have rounded these people up a month ago - or at least when the shelter in place order was issued - and housed them in Golden Gate Park - like Santa Clara county is doing.

Now it's too late. Practically every homeless person is immune-compromised in some respect and they are definitely *not* obeying any "six foot" rule. The virus will rip through them like wildfire and most will end up on a ventilator - and then dead.

Which it seems to me is what the city intended...

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 2 2020 22:48 utc | 116

Posted by: Ken Garoo | Apr 2 2020 22:32 utc | 111

I cannot see how can you infect someone if you are asymptomatic.
You have to shed viruses in order to infect.
If you shed viruses, viruses multiply in your body, killing or damaging host cells.
Dying or damaged cells cause the immune response in your body.
The immune response will make the symptoms appear, at least like an allergic reaction.

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 2 2020 22:49 utc | 117

While it's true that people under the age of 30 years have been dying from COVID-19, much of the information available in the Western MSM about these people is so sparse that we are not able to question whether what we are being told is credible. In the case of the 12-year-old girl, we do not even know her name.

As far as I can tell, the 13-year-old boy in the UK who died was called Ismail Mohamed Abdulwahab (someone can correct me if I'm wrong) and he was from Brixton. Brixton happens to be a very poor part of London. Is it not possible that before he contracted COVID-19, his general health was less than what it should have been for a boy his age living in the UK?

As for Chloe Middleton, a woman in her early 20s who died from COVID-19, and apparently in good health, again we are given only very general information and her family's statements about her look quite generic as though written by some PR flack. Women in their late teens / early 20s can be notorious for pursuing diets and cosmetic surgery that may have some effect on their overall health, and people in those age groups are at risk for diseases like glandular fever and other conditions caused by herpes viruses that can lie dormant until for some reason the hosts' immunity systems are suppressed.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 2 2020 22:51 utc | 118

Posted by: jo6pac | Apr 2 2020 21:15 utc | 85

Hi stranger glad to see you back... remember pitchforks? The Central Valley Ca. not good 4 cases Covid-16 and counting....

Return from Raley's supermarket refilled prescription, and counted less than 2-3, mainly older folks and two Asians with masks. Only two with masks and gloves.... the rest still walking freely.

"Here in Northern Calif. we're doing OK only because city, county, and then state jumped on it fast but sadly we don't have test here either".

Posted by: JC | Apr 2 2020 22:56 utc | 119

"... In the case of the 12-year-old girl, we do not even know her name ..."

Meant to say "... in the case of the 12-year-old girl in Belgium ..." - as always I hit the POST button too early before realising I should be clarifying some of what I say.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 2 2020 22:56 utc | 120

Years ago I used to read a site frequently that would get overwhelmed by people who were not adding anything to the conversations, call them what you will, I prefer to think of it as adults be constantly interrupted by the children.

One of the commenters wrote a script that was free to download and once you installed it, you could click on a commenters name, select ignore, and those comments would not appear on the page for you. They weren't deleted, they just didn't show up for you, so you didn't waste a lot of time scrolling by comments that you knew you weren't interested in reading.

Anyone know where one might find something similar? Anyone here with the expertise to do this? My understanding from the guy who wrote it was that is was a very simple thing to do for someone with the appropriate knowledge.

This would be a great public service due to the unusual number of commenters as of late.

Posted by: David F | Apr 2 2020 23:00 utc | 121

Is this true or not?

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 2 2020 23:01 utc | 122

it would be so much easier to just see America's response as being a botched response for the reasons b references. it's much more difficult to wrap your head around a possible reason for purposefully making this worse here in the states.

it's a joke to say no one saw this coming in light of Whitney Webb's brilliant look at Dark Winter and all the other gaming scenarios assessing the impact of this inevitable pandemic. these sociopaths know what to expect from us as they perpetrate a mass-psychoglical trauma even on the entire world.

Posted by: lizard | Apr 2 2020 23:05 utc | 123

Speak for yourself. Majority of people are not fucking psychopaths. Posted by: hopehely | Apr 2 2020 22:36 utc | 115

Speak for yourself. When it comes to personal opinions and their impressions of themselves, most people *are* fucking psychopaths. Witness the idiots here.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hackr | Apr 2 2020 23:06 utc | 124

CCD DSU numbers for April 2, 2020

I've added more nations and numbers: Belgium and Netherlands added, and I've also added a line showing the monthly death rate per 10M for each country (annual death rate divided by 12).
Note that the death rate is for the entire population; the very low percentages of nCOV infection (0.1% to 3%) show just how serious nCOV mortality is - and how unlikely it is that the high death rates are just normal mortality relabeled.

New York has shot past the 1000 mortality/10M (1221).
Spain is now within a hair of Italy (2229 vs. 2289).
Belgium and Netherlands are rapidly scaling towards the 1000 mortality/10M level (887 and 788).
Germany mortality/10M is now 4x that of South Korea and more than 5x of China.

A reminder: "normal" flu mortality with 15% population penetration is between 1000 and 2000 mortality/10M.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 23:09 utc | 125

@hopehely #119
It is a question of level.
If say, 100,000 ACE2 cells are infected - the person will shed some nCOV but not a lot but might not really notice anything.
If, on the other hand, 1,000,000,000 or more ACE2 cells are infected - there can be both serious damage to the lungs and a lot more virii released.
The virii are released both into the bloodstream and into the air because they target the ACE2 cells - which, among other things, pull oxygen from the air into the bloodstream.
Note there are 200 types of cells (give or take) and 37 trillion total cells in the body...

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 23:14 utc | 126

I cannot see how can you infect someone if you are asymptomatic. Posted by: hopehely | Apr 2 2020 22:49 utc | 119

The difference between this virus and most previous viruses is that they required one to have a fever, i.e., symptoms, before being contagious. This one does not for at least one to two days before symptoms appear. So we know it's possible to be asymptomatic for at least one to two days and still be contagious.

So it's not surprising that some people who never get symptoms can also be contagious even if their immune system has suppressed the virus enough to prevent symptoms. In other words, the viral load is suppressed enough by the immune system to not cause symptoms, but there is still a viral load in sputum and other secretions which when received by someone else from a cough or sneeze can infect that person. The immune system doesn't kill every bit of a virus - it just suppresses it.

It may eventually be proven that fully asymptomatic people can't be contagious, but it appears to be a fact that people are contagious *before* symptoms are noticed. So it's reasonable to believe that fully asymptomatic people can, too. It's just another characteristic of this particular virus.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 2 2020 23:15 utc | 127

acar burak 124: Is this true or not?

99.9% of those who come to moa to deliver bogus statistics are morons or trolls.

Which one are you?

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 2 2020 23:18 utc | 128

it's a joke to say no one saw this coming... Posted by: lizard | Apr 2 2020 23:05 utc | 125

That reminds me of Condoleezza Rice saying after 9/11 that no one expected terrorists to fly planes into buildings.

The pilot episode of the TV show "Lone Gunmen" - the spinoff from the "X Files" show - featured a faction of the US government remote controlling an airliner to fly into the World Trade Center in order to stimulate arms sales by blaming it on foreign dictators.

That episode aired in March, 2001 - six months before 9/11.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 2 2020 23:19 utc | 129

David F @67

I tried to post it and it was rejected again. I can't find the "posting rules" for MOA either. I'll try one more time without the sources I included from the WHO and WorldMeter web sites.

You wrote, "Many people live with underlying illnesses for years. The criteria that should be used is: why did that person die right now? If what killed them right now is a viral infection, then the fact that the underlying illness would have killed them eventually is meaningless, the cause of death is the viral infection."

We cannot ascertain absolutely the cause of death without an autopsy. I write this because WHO (world Health Organization) has stated that 290,000 - 650,000 people die every year due to Influenza Type A or Type B.

You have to ask yourself this question; why hasn't the media reported the number of cases of influenza by country and the related deaths alongside COVID-19? Why is there no quarantine in place for influenza? We who are curious and intelligent have to see if there is a correlation between the two diseases.

How do we know that influenza doesn't work together with SARS-CoV-2 to form a state of deadly comorbidity to wreak havoc on a person who suffers from chronic illness? We don't because the media doesn't ask that question and no postmortems have been performed to rule that out.

Look at the number of people worldwide that have recovered from being exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Just because you have it, doesn't mean you will wind up in ICU on life-support (ventilator) awaiting death.

As I write this, the worldwide total of infected people is a little over one million people. The total number of recovered is 210,582 and the number who have a mild case of COVID-19 (no breathing issues or high-grade fever) is 706,563.

People are surviving this disease with normal palliative care just like influenza. The ones that are at risk are overwhelmingly the chronically ill or those who have poor health habits. We must be able to differentiate using the science of pathology and not the hyperbole of reckless media cacophony.

Posted by: PokeTheTruth | Apr 2 2020 23:20 utc | 130

Funny, what used to be an interesting blog about media lies when it cames to wars etc, turns into idiocy.

Go learn some real facts: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Posted by: Novaris | Apr 2 2020 23:21 utc | 131

@Benjamin #54
As opposed to the climate panicmongers - whose list of failed predictions increases literally every year?
Note that neither Christy nor Spencer have ever said there is no warming - they've been documenting it in their monthly "temperature anomaly" publications and maintain one of the 2 satellite temperature records.
They just don't agree with the panicmongers that it will accelerate, get worse, destroy life on Earth, etc.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 23:23 utc | 132

Another example of meanness and what people's personal opinions mean to them when contradicted by facts:

Nation's top coronavirus expert Dr. Anthony Fauci forced to beef up security as death threats increase
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/politics/anthony-fauci-security-detail/index.html

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 2 2020 23:23 utc | 133

This puts me in the group of morons. That's why I've asked if it's true or not. But seemingly morons don't deserve explanations; got it. Thanks

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 2 2020 23:26 utc | 134

Posted by: PokeTheTruth | Apr 2 2020 23:20 utc | 132

Someone who just doesn't get it. Oblivious to facts. Still flogging the "cause of death" bullcrap - and he'll continue to do until two million people are dead over the normal flu count.

Hopeless. *This* person is why America will suffer a huge death toll.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hackr | Apr 2 2020 23:27 utc | 135

My 136 was for

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 2 2020 23:18 utc | 130

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 2 2020 23:28 utc | 136

daily medNews in the Inbox just now - shortage of PPE and ventilators not the only problem.....heartbreaking.

>>>
[now] hospitals are also facing a shortage of ventilator-associated drugs. Usually, hospitals could fill 95% of orders for such drugs. In the last month, that rate has dropped to 60% or 70%, and it continues to decrease by about 3% daily, an industry expert says. Meanwhile, demand is skyrocketing.[.]

Everything in the intensive care unit is different with COVID-19 [.] Families can't stay with loved ones in the hospital. [.] [.]
Physicians are learning on the fly, texting friends at other institutions to compare notes. <<

========
But Mnuchin does enough print to appease Wall Street Banksters.

Stay safe as best you can.

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 2 2020 23:39 utc | 137

PokeTheTruth @132:

People are surviving this disease with normal palliative care just like influenza. The ones that are at risk are overwhelmingly the chronically ill or those who have poor health habits.

Quite a large number of Americans have risk factors that make them susceptible to Covid-19: smoker, diabetes, elderly, immune problems, etc.

A lot of Americans also have poor heath insurance that puts them at financial risk if they are unlucky enough to be among those with a serious, but not deadly case.

Then there's the secondary effects of an overwhelmed healthcare system. Are heart attack and stroke victims getting treated as quickly as they were before in places with a high incidence of Covid-19?

!!


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 2 2020 23:43 utc | 138

Petri Krohn @ 117

So, I see you are around to do more shit stirring, complete with a reference to your earlier shit stirring.

Yet, you have no time - over a period of two days and two threads - to respond to my criticsm of your earlier post. This is my second request for you to respond to what I said earlier

I've seen this "just ignore the criticism" tactic before.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 2 2020 23:46 utc | 139

acar burak @136: This puts me in the group of morons.

There's still hope for you.

1) Learn about the virus.

2) Learn about statistics and exponential growth.

3) Read prior comments at moa and comments at other blogs.

Hint: "excess mortality" is a misleading statistic.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 2 2020 23:47 utc | 140

Just another note to say I find it insane that people are arguing over arcane details of this pandemic. Especially so when one considers that few if any have the relevant background of years & years of study followed by decades of on the job training that is the standard for the epidemiologists putting forward their conclusions.
Will they all be correct? Of course not, but debate in medicine is like dialectic in politics, an essential way of analysing a situation.
A background in science or even basic medical training is utterly useless for working out which epidemiologist is up big pharma & who is paying the rent.
That is not to say that the large cadre of virus experts & epidemiologists are not aware of who is a sellout to which corporation, which professor got where he/she is today because he/she kisses politicians' butt. I'm far from a fan of academic 'conferences' which all too frequently amount to little more than dick-measuring gabfests, but now just this one time I acknowledge their value.
When Joe/Jo Blow sees an article by some allegedly esteemed expert, Jo/Joe's most probable reaction will be to see if the expert point of view conforms to his/her particular worldview. If it does that expert will be lauded in blogs, FB, twitter & youtube.
If it doesn't the 'so-called' expert will be sledged in the same fora.

That is no way to critically analyze anything which is why I abhor the interminable debates about issues most participants barely comprehend, here at MoA. I can recall just enough of the thankfully truncated training I received nigh on 50 years ago to comprehend that I know SFA. As for virus, back then, the debate was still ongoing as to whether they were a life form or not, many religious medicos some of whom held senior positions maintained it was, whereas the 'science is how we determine answers' types insisted that a complex protein with no cell structure, that is unable to replicate outside of a host is most certainly not a life form. The scientists eventually won this essentially philosophic debate.

Out in the land of 'distinguished epidemiologists' the types who are charged with doing the hands on work of developing counters to this virus, will know exactly which professor, non-profit boss, esteemed expert, talks sense outta a brain that absorbs information & devises answers, and which ones are little more than industry shills who got lucky once early in their career, who are the notorious plagiarists, who are better at politicking than doctoring etc.
We cannot - we don't stand a chance, we have no access to the gory details which any particular industry needs an objective knowledge of to make successful conclusions. We may be able to recognise that someone like Gauci is deft at politics, but we have no idea if he is also good at the practical aspects of his job. We can rightly take his pronouncements with a pinch of salt but we have no idea is he is talking sense, or talking out his arse.

The only types who know that are too busy trying to make a silk vaccination outta orangeman's ear to join the debate.

Posted by: A User | Apr 2 2020 23:51 utc | 141

@bevin 4

The good news is that the days when the Empire's default reaction was to bomb anything that annoyed it is over.

The economic sanctions and stealth regime change tactics preferred by Trump in Iran, Venezuela etc. are brutal and in Venezuela alone have killed over 40,000 people. Sanctions against Iraq in the decade leading up to the 2003 invasion resulted in 500,000 children dying (which Clinton’s SoS Madeline Albright infamously said “was worth it”).

There are a few different ways to collectively punish people in countries that deviate from the path set out by the Empire, and not all of them require bombs or overt military force. That said, it’s only a matter of time before the USG once again uses its military to wreak havoc on a nation it wants to subjugate.

Posted by: Daniel | Apr 2 2020 23:54 utc | 142

Richard Steven Hack @129

You wrote, " The difference between this virus and most previous viruses is that they required one to have a fever, i.e., symptoms, before being contagious. This one does not for at least one to two days before symptoms appear. So we know it's possible to be asymptomatic for at least one to two days and still be contagious."

Asymptomatic means no symptoms i.e., no sneezing, coughing or postnasal drip.
As far as transmission by sputum (spitting) or other secretions, I think that is a such a rare occurrence that it is too infinitesimal to statistically count. I mean come on, how many times have you touched someone's spit? Kissing is not known to spread the disease from an asymptomatic carrier either.

The other observations that suggest presymptomatic transmission of infection (meaning no symptoms) cannot be confirmed because it is unknown if the disease was present and active on surfaces before the subjects came in contact with it and with each other.

The disease is spread by sending a plume into the air as a result of a cough, sneeze or postnasal drip. A person comes in contact with the virus by being in the vicinity of the plume or when the virus falls on a surface and a person touches it and then somewhere on their body that allows entry (eyes, nasal passages or mouth.)

Please provide a reference that says an asymptomatic person is contagious. If you are referring to the article published in the NEJM (New England Journal of Medicine), that turned out to be flawed as the women did display symptoms when she returned to Germany.

Source: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong# .

Posted by: PokeTheTruth | Apr 2 2020 23:57 utc | 143

re A User | Apr 2 2020 23:51 utc | 143
should read :
"We may be able to recognise that someone like Fauci is deft at politics"

see what I mean lol

Posted by: A User | Apr 2 2020 23:58 utc | 144

Re:Posted by: DougDiggler | Apr 2 2020 18:36 utc | 39

"I’ve been following this site since 2014 and have a master’s degree, but I need that “miles traveled” graphic explained to me."

@b: I don't understand the point you were trying to make with those two US maps either.

Posted by: gm | Apr 3 2020 0:01 utc | 145

PokeTheTruth | Apr 2 2020 23:20 utc | 132

I dont know what the exact rules are, I have been reading here for a long time, but rarely post anything. I do believe links can be a problem. I am familiar with the worldometer site, I have been following that one closely for a few weeks now.

"We cannot ascertain absolutely the cause of death without an autopsy." As a specific statement, this has some merit, and we arent able to say with 100% accuracy that every case that is contributed to the virus is the actual cause of death without performing autopsies on every single person who has died, an impossible task. But again I have to say, why is this person here right now? Why is this person dying right now? A person with full blown aids, whose immune system is completely gone, is going to die from the first deadly viurs that comes along. If he dies of the flu, that is the cause of death. If he dies from this virus, that is the cause of death. If he gets hit by a truck, that is the cause of death. Honestly, I dont understand why the exact cause is such a sticking point. Perhaps a person dies from a heart attack, that was induced from the added stress of the virus, the virus is still a causal factor.

The flu has an R0 of .7, IIRC, this has an R0 of somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5, some sources have said as high as almost 5. An R0 of less than 1 means the virus goes away on its own eventually, higher than 1 means it wont go away until everyone in the zone of infection has caught it. Higher than 2 or 3 means it spreads like a wildfire, which is what we are seeing. Things are going to get a whole shit ton worse in the near future, our government knows it, they just aint telling us because they know they cant do anything about it at this point. Delay the panic as long as possible I guess.

The flu does not spread this fast, very few people who get the flu need to be hospitalized. If we let this run rampant lots of people will get sick and need to be hospitalized in order to survive this. Even if the number is as little as 1%, that is 3.25 million people in the US, I read that the US has about 900,000 ICU beds. That means that a little over 2 million people die because they cant get medical care. Now imagine if that number turns out to be 2%, 5%, 10% or more. Also, add a large number of people who dont get care for the normal things people need hospital care for and wont be able to get.

I have read that doctors and nurses in NY are getting sick, with some dying. How long do you think they are going to keep coming to work if it means they might die? How long will the cops or firemen keep showing up?

Gun sales lately are through the roof, one store in Seattle said what would normally be a great day with 35 guns sold, is now being eclipsed by sales of 150 or more each day, for weeks on end. What do you suppose is going to happen when the first person shows up to a hospital and is denied treatment for their sick family member? What do you suppose is going to happen if that person has a gun?

Our society is more fragile than a China doll, on a two legged stool, in an earthquake prone region. This could be the thing that breaks the US, I sincerely hope it is not. The breaking has been a long time coming, and it aint gonna be pretty.

The level of risk here is so high only the foolish and the insane would ignore it. At this point in the game anyone who ignores or dismisses this threat deserves what happens to them. I am not running around screaming, but I am acutely aware of the far higher than normal potential for disaster. There is little I or anyone else can do right now anyway, except watch it play out and hope for the best.

Posted by: David F | Apr 3 2020 0:07 utc | 146

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 2 2020 23:47 utc | 142

I've just asked a simple and innocent question and met with your idiotic, patronizing nastiness without any real input. And now you keep farting more of the same. Please keep all that infantilism for your mother.

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 3 2020 0:16 utc | 147

What about the idea of comparing the average death rate for a town, province, city, country - for a suitable time period - to the current death rate for the same entity under sars cov-2 attack? Call it a working circumstantial correlation.

Posted by: jrbarch | Apr 3 2020 0:24 utc | 148

USA effectively a failed state by the end of April?

The Boeing catastrophe seems the template: the responsibility is diffused to the point that no one person was responsible for making a plane which falls out of the sky, it was the result of a mendacious corporate culture which had lost its way, had stopped being an aircraft manufacturer and was instead a financialized wealth extractor. Too big to fail until it failed.

Posted by: jayc | Apr 3 2020 0:29 utc | 149

Empire propaganda has shifted into high-gear as political elites have not been able to squash the outrage over the corruption exposed by the gaming of the virus response.

We are seeing:

1) Playing down the virus as a nothing-burger.

2) Playing up the outlandish conspiracy theory that Western governments want to use the virus to transition to a police state.

This one-two punch is meant to diffuse the anger that people feel toward government mishandling of the pandemic. And, more importantly, confuse and distract anyone come to alt-media to understand what is really happening.

The virus is NOT a nothing-burger. And Western elites already have constructed a system that is perfect for their looting and control of the rest of us. That they use any CRISIS! that arises to feather their own nest and further Imperial imperatives is not surprising.

What is surprising is how long people have allowed that to go on.

EMPIRE GAMES: CRISIS! as the New Bloodsport

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 0:32 utc | 150

acar burak @149

If you're smart enough to get here and articulate enough to shout infantalism! then you can educate yourself about the virus. But you haven't. But I'm the bad guy?

I think you're a troll. As I explain further @152.

<> <> <> <> <>

For the benefit of anyone else: "excess deaths" is a statistic used by healthcare policy makers and practitioners to understand their effectiveness. It's not relevant to a new virus.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 0:38 utc | 151

@153 adding, for clarity:

... used by healthcare policy-makers and practioners to understand their effectiveness against influenza and other "ordinary" diseases.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 0:44 utc | 152

#124

"Is this true or not?"

OffGuardian:

CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE
Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence. These sources may be untrustworthy for credible/verifiable information, therefore fact checking and further investigation is recommended on a per article basis when obtaining information from these sources.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/?s=offguardian

That should answer your question.

Posted by: krypton | Apr 3 2020 0:45 utc | 153

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 2 2020 22:46 utc | 117
(Hoarsewhisperer @ #100 missing something important)

That's quite possible.
My remarks were inspired by your #22 upthread but I decided not to launch my #100 as a response to that comment and launched it from an Occam's perspective to avoid offending anyone and to express it as my opinion.

Whilst I accept that it is probably "educational" to track timelines, infection rates, classes and curves, mid-pandemic, the fact remains that, one day, the end of the pandemic in the West will be Officially declared to have occurred. When that day arrives each country will have a record of a total number of infected individuals & a total number of deaths. And History will remember only the number of deaths.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 3 2020 0:54 utc | 154

In the section for "April 2 2020 - Bloomberg" you wrote "Ohio’s stay-at-home order, issued Sunday by Republican Governor Mike DeWine". In Ohio, where I live, the "DIRECTORS STAY AT HOME ORDER" was issued and solely approved by the Director of the Ohio Department of Health - see "https://drive.google.com/file/d/1P_GpxP8LHlMu3mqymKQA99jMSDN0z7qt/view". The Governor may have spoken most at the press conference when it was issued, and since, but Ohio law does not give the Governor the power to issue an order like this.

Posted by: Robert | Apr 3 2020 0:58 utc | 155

@c1ue

Yes, NY, NJ and Mich have hard hit areas. As expected, average distance traveled by the cell phones that are being tracked dropped sooner, due of course to the perceived need to avoid gatherings and stay home.

The black areas are largely rural, but it is interesting to note that some urban areas in the deep south have not yet shown the stay at home feature.

Posted by: James Speaks | Apr 3 2020 1:01 utc | 156

@ 155 krypton... i don't know that i would blow off ''off-guardian'' as quickly as the mediafactcheck site has done... while acar burak did get the info from off-g, it still was coming from yet another site -https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/number.html

i do believe it is looking at the predominant influenza virus strain circulating in europe and i am not sure if covid falls into this category... hard to know acar, without further info.. cheers..

@ jen - thanks for your posts and comments! there was a younger person in canada that apparently died from covid 19- quite young, but all the details weren't given.. again it is hard to know how many in a younger category are being directly affected by covid 19, but there was a stat that my sister had mentioned that said i higher then usual percent of those on ventilators at vancouver hospital were in the age 40 range... if i find the data, i will share it... meanwhile a poster at sst FWH - shared this from last night.. - "The latest from the Vancouver Sun Newspaper (on line edition): 1,066 confirmed cases in British Columbia, 25 deceased with median age of 85 years, 606 recovered, 142 in the hospital with 67 of these in ICU, 293 recovering in isolation."

regarding why posts sometimes don't go thru........................

my own experience has been that i put too many links in the post, or i spend too long getting the post ready to post and then often it goes into a hold and doesn't get released until a day later... not sure if that helps others...

Posted by: james | Apr 3 2020 1:14 utc | 157

The map here shows which states have what sort of orders, with South Dakota being the only "limited action" state. (The website doesn't support IE; I used Edge to open it.) Click on a state and then a county within to get the data compiled for it.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 3 2020 1:18 utc | 158

@ 115 hopehely
Spot-on. Thank you.

Posted by: HD | Apr 3 2020 1:24 utc | 159

David F @148

Let's explore a scenario that might shed some light on where I'm coming from regarding COVID-19.

I call my doctor and complain of repeated coughing, sneezing, postnasal drip, sore throat, chills, muscle ache, intestinal disorder and feeling feverish. Does the doctor assume I have: influenza, chronic bronchitis or COVID-19? Hopefully no, he would tell me to come into the office and get tested. I should get laboratory tests for COVID-19 and for influenza since both these diseases are highly contagious and prevalent right now. I also get chest X-rays, sputum tests, etc. The tests come back and I have influenza, chronic bronchitis but too early to tell if COVID-19 can be confirmed.

I start to get worse and now my breathing is somewhat labored and I have a temperature of 101.4. Now the doctor admits me into the hospital for observation. I get another chest x-ray and it shows that ground-glass opacificities that identify COVID-19. I'm getting worse and have to be moved into ICU and put on a ventilator. After sometime I expire.

What is the cause of my death, COVID-19, influenza or something else? If I don't have a postmortem the attending doctor will in all likelihood put down "COVID-19" as the cause of death due to the chest x-ray. He would be wrong. I died because I had a blood clot that caused a pulmonary embolism that led to my death. The doctor just didn't see the blood clot on the chest ex-ray and the symptoms of a pulmonary embolism are very similar to all the other diseases that were diagnosed.

Do you now see why I emphasize the importance of a postmortem? I agree with what you wrote about not being able to autopsy everyone, especially during this frenzied time having to deal with this wicked strain of coronavirus. But my death would have been counted in the COVID-19 death total and that would be wrong.

Healthcare services are under tremendous stress and overwhelmed with patients who report symptoms that are similar to one another as I indicated above. Shortcuts are taken and not all tests are being performed that should be in order to obtain the correct diagnosis. When the doctor is under pressure to treat a patient for COVID-19 he will succumb to only testing for that in order to expedite the process and move on to the next patient. This leads to attributing death to what was laboratory tested, which was COVID-19.

Let me offer an simple anecdote to put this into perspective. Banks are being robbed in a local town. The investigation concludes that at least two men are involved and one of them has been identified to a photo of former bank robber who served his time and now lives in the community. A robbery is in progress at a bank and police are dispatched. The cops catch one of the robbers but not the other one. They go to the home of the former bank robber, interrogate him and charge him with the crime because he didn't have a believable alibi. The former bank robber is tried, convicted, sentenced to prison and the case is closed. His defense attorney doesn't give up and after exhaustive gathering of evidence proves his client's innocence. By the way, this happens quite a bit in the real world.

Because the cops (doctors) are pressured to convict (diagnose) a suspect (COVID-19) and seek no other perpetrator (influenza, blood clot, etc.) they charged the wrong guy.
The public thinks justice was served (total deaths attributed to COVID-19) and they are misled due to sloppy police work.

That's where we are today; we rush to judgment that COVID-19 is the cause of all the deaths when the truth may point to a different medical reason.

Posted by: PokeTheTruth | Apr 3 2020 1:29 utc | 160

James and acar,

You are correct about the article in OffGuardian. and I'd like to take back my previous comment, or at least revise it. That OffGuardian article is based on maps published by the EuroMOMO network (European Monitoring of Excessive Mortality for Public Health Action which is indeed a respected highly credible organization. The weekly mortality maps raise some interesting questions about nCOV-19 mortality rates in Europe. If you go back through previous years the maps show numerous periods of excessive mortality as high as or higher than the latest map for week 13 2020. But as you rightly point out it's not clear if the 2020 maps include deaths from nCOV-19.

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

Posted by: krypton | Apr 3 2020 1:30 utc | 161

Posted by: PokeTheTruth | Apr 2 2020 23:57 utc | 145

"Asymptomatic means no symptoms i.e., no sneezing, coughing or postnasal drip." I know what it means.

"As far as transmission by sputum (spitting) or other secretions, I think that is a such a rare occurrence that it is too infinitesimal to statistically count. I mean come on, how many times have you touched someone's spit? Kissing is not known to spread the disease from an asymptomatic carrier either."

This is such utter bullshit that you can't be serious in expecting anyone to engage you on this topic.

You are dismissed.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 3 2020 1:35 utc | 162

Richard Steven Hack @129

What you say makes perfect sense.

PokeTheTruth @145 responds "...Asymptomatic means no symptoms i.e., no sneezing, coughing or postnasal drip."

But when you look at what are generally accepted as the symptoms of coronavirus from the WHO & various government health authorities - sneezing, coughing & postnasal drip are not included. Note 'persistent coughing' is included as a symptom.

I think for many people as they go through their daily life, they will sneeze, cough or have a postnasal drip.
This is all from totally benign things - pollen, cooking food, eating chili, dusty environment etc.

I agree you don't often encounter 'spit', but the way some people talk....

The point is that the asymptomatic carrier of corona virus still sneezes, coughs & has postnasal drip.

Posted by: ted01 | Apr 3 2020 1:38 utc | 163

Richard Steven Hack @164

You got there first. I was too slow.

Posted by: ted01 | Apr 3 2020 1:39 utc | 164

Lets keep in mind that US death rates have been increasing every year since 2008- think back to what happened then and connect a few dots.

The US population- as in Italy, Spain, is a populace with already severe, collective health problems- upper respiratory diseases and compromised immune systems along with horrendous social services across the board are the problem and causal agents- the virus is the symptom. Italy's "excess death" toll has been through the roof for a decade- they just called it influenza until this year.

Oh and the sucking sound you just heard was Wall St. sticking another $6 trillion into it's pockets as they head out the back door. Not too hard to imagine how many more "excess deaths" are about to occur.

Posted by: Allen | Apr 3 2020 1:45 utc | 165

Amazon blocks sale of N95 masks to the public, begins offering supplies to hospitals
https://tinyurl.com/ryznued

Like that matters since they didn't have any for sale anyway...

Senator Loeffler's COVID-Related Stock Trades Looking Even Worse,
While Feds Start Investigating Senator Burr's
https://tinyurl.com/wrgoydd

Chloroquine for COVID-19 Patients - new study in China
https://www.doomandbloom.net/chloroquine-for-covid-19-patients/

Prepping, Not Just for the Fringes Anymore – Part One
https://tinyurl.com/r7pnqrn

NYPD Reports More Than 1,000 Officers Testing Positive for COVID-19
https://tinyurl.com/r7xvr6s

Chicago Police Officer Dies of COVID-19
https://tinyurl.com/wktjxdd

Note: Contracted last week, hospitalized over the weekend - dead today. Man was only 50 years old. "It remained unclear if the officer had any underlying conditions that made him high-risk for the virus."

Also note: "Guglielmi said Tuesday that at least four officers had been hospitalized by the virus, one of which was in critical condition. The department has seen a rise in sick calls over the last week, reporting nearly 7% of its workforce had called out late last week and over the weekend. On Monday, 800 officers were out sick, but it remained unclear how many of those officers were experiencing symptoms of the coronavirus."

And finally, another example of how stupid some believers are:

California Engineer Accused of Derailing Train to Damage Navy Hospital Ship Over Coronavirus
https://tinyurl.com/vrqcfzt

"Moreno admitted to crashing the train and suggested the ship "had an alternate purpose related to COVID-19 or a government takeover."

"You know...morons..."

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 3 2020 1:47 utc | 166

Thanks James and krypton.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 0:38 utc | 153 & 154

"excess deaths" is a statistic used by healthcare policy makers and practitioners to understand their effectiveness against influenza and other "ordinary" diseases. It's not relevant to a new virus.

Please explain and explain in the context of that article and the current situation.

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 3 2020 2:03 utc | 168

Richard Steven Hack @101

"I'm an anarchist."

No anarchist would say "No individual human gives a damn about any other human - unless that other human is personally important for reasons of money, power or sex."

Anarchy would hold that it is hierarchy and power than results in this behaviour and that it is far from "natural". Remove the hierarchy and humans would then cooperate and show their true love for each other.

If your view of humanity is true that power and coercive hierarchy is required to control and protect humans from each other.

Are humans only interested in their own desires and needs? Competing against each other? Taking what the can without regard for the other person? Nothing more than walking selfish genes? It's fairly obvious that you are not an anarchist and that you don't understand what anarchism is.

Posted by: ADKC | Apr 3 2020 2:04 utc | 169

SF Bay Area Covid updated March 29 to April 2

Alameda county (not including Berkeley)
Positive Cases: 373 +109
Deaths: 9 +2

Berkeley
Cases 23 +4
Deaths Zero

Contra Costa County
276 Cases + 89
Deaths 3
Total tested 4083
Hospitalized 31
Dashboard

San Francisco County
Positive cases 450 +76
Deaths 7 +1

San Mateo County
Positive cases 453 +144
Deaths 10 +4
Dashboard

Santa Clara County
1019 Cases +171
Deaths 36 +8
Public health Dashboard
Dashboard

Sonoma County
Active Cases 79 +27
Hospitalized 15
Recovered 15 +2
Deaths 1
Tests 1915
Dashboard

Solono county
confirmed cases 61 +18
Deaths 1 +1
Active cases 23 +7
total hospitalizations 22 +10

Marin County As of 1 April
confirmed cases 108 +15
Deaths 6 +5
persons tested at County site 774
Hospitalizations 15 +2

Santa Cruz County
Total cases 57 +13
Deaths +1

Napa County
Active case 18 +4
Deaths 1 +1

The state has ordered the restricting of water cutoffs. More medical pop up hospitals are being planned for the area. Medical supplies to be provided by the National Guard. The Governor has enacted some provisions to help small business monetarily.

A renters strike is being organized in the Bay Area. More inmates are being released to give some space in prisons and jails.

The city of SF is projecting a 1.7 billion dollar deficit. On 1 April California's hospitals had reported 774 patients in intensive care units, a 16% increase from yesterday.

A have heard stories of a few more grocery stores being closed for cleaning due to an ill staffer. We had an incident today at work where some people were sent home and a cleaning initiated. My workload has more than doubled as essential workers are being split off and kept in reserve. Healthcare workers are extremely stressed out.

Posted by: dltravers | Apr 3 2020 2:08 utc | 170

james, everyone

See my comment @153, and @154.

acar's "Is it true or not" is a classic propaganda trap.

Sure it's "true" but it's a statistic that is irrelevant.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 2:11 utc | 171

@c1ue

I know this will be water off a duck's ass to you, since you don't care about facts, but the general trend with climate change predictions is that things keep happening sooner and to a worse degree than the predictions.

Posted by: Benjamin | Apr 3 2020 2:11 utc | 172

@ 173 jackrabbit.. maybe... hard to know for sure... might be a person speaking english as 2nd language too...

Posted by: james | Apr 3 2020 2:20 utc | 173

Poll shows that support for Medicare4All is surging.

Despite Sanders best efforts, he is being given another chance. Hopefully, he will take it.

Posted by: ADKC | Apr 3 2020 2:23 utc | 174

Pokethe Truth @ 61.

Right you are.
As I posted elsewhere, here is the basic information on the US Dept. of Health and Human Services Blue Form:

"The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has very clear instructions for describing and listing cause of death. The stated reasons for these instructions are also very clear:
“Accurate cause-of-death information is important: • To the public health community in evaluating and improving the health of all citizens, and
• Often to the family, now and in the future, and to the person settling the decedent’s estate.

It seems to me that these guidelines are not being followed, with the result that the situation the instructions are meant to prevent are indeed occurring: the statistics are confusing and don’t refer to the same things consistently and are creating a false record that hinders correct evaluation of the disease’s effects and actual dangers.”

I believe that anyone who talks about mortality figures must make him- or herself familiar with the very specific instructions on the U.S. Dept. of health and Human Services Blue Form for reporting cause of death—officially, “Instructions for Completing the Cause-of-Death Section of the Death Certificate .”

Read every line of it:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/blue_form.pdf

At the top are these instructions:
“The cause-of-death section consists of two parts. Part I is for reporting a chain of events leading directly to death, with the immediate cause of death (the final disease, injury, or complication directly causing death) on Line a and the underlying cause of death (the disease or injury that initiated the chain of morbid events that led directly and inevitably to death) on the lowest used line. Part II is for reporting all other significant diseases, conditions, or injuries that contributed to death but which did not result in the underlying cause of death given in Part I. The cause-of-death information should be YOUR best medical OPINION. A condition can be listed as “probable” even if it has not been definitively diagnosed.”

It seems to me that the corona virus would likely be listed in Part II of the form:
“PART II. Enter other significant conditions contributing to death but not resulting in the underlying cause given in PART I. ”

Seems like in many, many cases of death, the virus was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

All contributory factors in death must be listed.
Look at the final section:
“When processes such as the following are reported, additional information about the etiology should be reported: ”
One of the processes is respiratory failure.

I for one hope that someone is analyzing the actual blue forms of all “Covid” deaths to see whether they have been correctly filled out, and if so, what they actually say.

I think incorrectly filling out the blue form may be quite common. An anecdote: My father died, in a nursing home in Alameda County, CA. I had spent the night with him there, and thought he was going to wake up in the morning. The nurse who came on duty at 6 a.m. told me he was not going to wake up, he was going to die. This nurse told me my father had aspiration pneumonia. He did die very shortly thereafter. The blue form was filled out by a doctor who had never actually seen my father. The cause of death was listed as “cognitive failure.” I knew that that was BS. I had already become familiar with the blue form after my mother’s death. On that form the cause of death was “old age.” i knew that this also was BS. but in that case it was too late to do anything about it. I refused to release my father’s body for cremation until the blue form cause of death was changed to respiratory failure due to aspiration pneumonia. Of course the doc didn’t want that cause of death listed because it reflects poorly on the nursing home and could affect the home’s evaluation (aspiration pneumonia is a common cause of death in nursing homes).

What I am saying is that we have to be vigilant in understanding possible problems in who fills out the blue form, and how. It may be done by a doc who has never even seen the patient and doesn’t really know the etiology of the disease, or is under pressure to misstate the cause of death as would be mandated by the blue form instructions. "

Posted by: Really?? | Apr 3 2020 2:28 utc | 175

Many people live with underlying illnesses for years. The criteria that should be used is: why did that person die right now? If what killed them right now is a viral infection, then the fact that the underlying illness would have killed them eventually is meaningless, the cause of death is the viral infection.

. . .

Posted by: David F | Apr 2 2020 20:19 utc | 67
++++++

David, I don't think what you say is supported by actual medical practice. Read carefully the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Service Blue Form for describing/listing cause of death, linked up-thread. Preexisting conditions and causes is extremely important in determining official cause of death.

Posted by: Really?? | Apr 3 2020 2:33 utc | 176

@ Perimetr | Apr 2 2020 21:19 utc | 87

About drills that eerily "predicted" the COVID-19 pandemic, the Crimson Contagion pandemic exercise that I posted about two threads back is even more suspicious in its predictive accuracy and involvement of multiple American federal agencies, state governments, and hospitals.

Among other things, the Crimson Contagion drill gives lie to the Trump assertion that no one could have foreseen such a pandemic as COVID-19.

Trump Administration Failed Dry Run ‘Crimson Contagion’ Pandemic Exercise
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/crimson-contagion-exercise-trump-administration-failures_n_5e744105c5b6eab7794560e6

Posted by: ak74 | Apr 3 2020 2:33 utc | 177

regarding the rationale with the 2 maps on the bottom of b's post....

jim white @ emptywheel has a post up talking about these 2 maps...here...

Posted by: james | Apr 3 2020 2:34 utc | 178

PokeTheTruth 162

There will undoubtedly be misdiagnoseses, guaranteed, lets say that the total number of those is 10%. So instead of 53k dead from the virus, it is actually 47k, mostly in the last few weeks. I didn't see it in that light before, you are right, this isn't a pandemic. (Sorry, I couldn't resist the opportunity to be sarcastic). If that rate was 50%, you still wouldn't have an argument, due to the fact that this is so contagious and it will overwhelm the medical system. This is not just a flu!

I think you are trying to deny reality. The reality of the situation is horrible, denying it wont make it any less horrible. The sooner people quit trying to deny reality, the sooner we can deal with the situation rationally and effectively.

We are in a boat that is taking on water rapidly and most of the passengers are either flatly denying that it is filling up, or are arguing about the cause of it filling up, meanwhile the boat is getting lower and lower in the water. This is why we are fucked. By the time everyone agrees that the boat is indeed sinking, it will be too late to do anything about it. It is probably already too late.

PokeTheTruth 145

"Asymptomatic means no symptoms i.e., no sneezing, coughing or postnasal drip." No it means no excessive sneezing, coughing, or running noses. People sneeze and cough everyday even when they are not sick.

Allen 167

"Lets keep in mind that US death rates have been increasing every year since 2008" death rates or number of deaths? I would say number of deaths, not rates, which giving growing population means that the number of deaths will rise when the rate changes. Also, I think life expectancy rates are enough to refute your point.

Richard Steven Hack 168

RE: cops in chicago. 7% out sick, and 800 not coming to work on Monday. I doubt most of them had the virus, most are probably fearing for their own safety. See my earlier post where I stated doctors, nurses, cops, and firemen are going to stop coming to work when they realize that they are exposing themselves and their families to this virus.

Finally, 2 or 3 days ago, fauci said we could see 100,000 maybe 200,000 deaths, but "don't hold me to that". Yesterday, a white house spokesperson said we will likely see 100,000 to 200,000 deaths "if we do everything exactly right", and up to 2.2 million otherwise. They are slowly letting out the truth.

The smart thing to do is prepare for the worst and expect the best. Surely, nobody can disagree with this sentiment. Why then are so many people so god damn adamant about denying what is happening.

Buckle up folks, this party is just getting started!

Posted by: David F | Apr 3 2020 2:43 utc | 179

james @175: might be a person speaking english as 2nd language too..

No. See his comment @149.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 2:44 utc | 180

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 2:11 utc | 173

acar's "Is it true or not" is a classic propaganda trap.

Sure it's "true" but it's a statistic that is irrelevant.

Please explain how that is irrelevant in this context.

James, yes english is my 2nd language, but not that 2nd! I've just been careless. I've obviously meant to ask if that article is "relevant", important etc.?

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 3 2020 2:48 utc | 181

@acar burak

Do you live in Burak?

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 2:51 utc | 182

Posted by: Bruce | Apr 3 2020 2:56 utc | 183

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 2:51 utc | 184

So you don't know what you're saying. What's your game?

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 3 2020 3:02 utc | 184

Posted by: David F | Apr 3 2020 2:43 utc | 181 " I doubt most of them had the virus, most are probably fearing for their own safety. See my earlier post where I stated doctors, nurses, cops, and firemen are going to stop coming to work when they realize that they are exposing themselves and their families to this virus."

You may be right. The figure that is missing is how many cops are "out sick" - for whatever real reason - on an average day in Chicago. Still, I suspect a "lot" of these cops probably have the virus, they just haven't been tested yet because they are staying home. Once they get the "shortness of breath" symptom - which doesn't turn up usually for a 5 days to a week or more - they'll get tested - if there are tests available.

This is the problem with the US lack of preparation - limited testing even now. The only reason to wait until shortness of breath before reporting to the hospital for testing is 1) docs and nurses are swamped and don't have time for testing, 2) labs are swamped, and 3) lack of enough test kits for everyone. If *everyone* could get tested the minute they got a sore throat, this virus would be a lot easier to contain - provided the isolate and trace capability was there.

"Why then are so many people so god damn adamant about denying what is happening." As I've said before and you referenced in your other response about "denying reality" - it's cognitive dissonance. People don't want to emotionally accept it, so they don't. Couple that with irritation at being inconvenienced by the lockdown, the threat of job loss due to recession (regardless of whether they're unemployed now), and simple troll behavior - and we have what we have here.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 3 2020 3:11 utc | 185

Really?? 178

I haven't read the exact definition, and I'm not going to, and I really don't think it is the important thing right now. In normal circumstances I think there are valid reasons to list all contributing factors when stating why a person died.

If a person has a completely compromised immune system from aids and they died because they got pneumonia from this virus, then they died from the virus due to the fact that their immune system was compromised by aids.

Hemophilia doesn't kill people. People with hemophilia die because they cant stop bleeding. Hence, what kills a hemophiliac is getting cut, due to the fact that he is a hemophiliac. So, the cause of death is bleeding, a contributing factor is the hemophilia.

Bottom line, the above person with an underlying health condition would not be dead right now if they hadn't contracted this virus, in the exact same way that the hemophiliac would not be dead if he hadn't cut himself.

Any arguments to the contrary are just splitting hairs. I have said all I have to say on this subject, this is not a fruitful conversation at this point.

Posted by: David F | Apr 3 2020 3:12 utc | 186

David F | Apr 3 2020 2:43 utc | 181

"I would say number of deaths, not rates, which giving growing population means that the number of deaths will rise when the rate changes."

Meant to say when the rate remains the same.

Posted by: David F | Apr 3 2020 3:14 utc | 187

"Preexisting conditions and causes is extremely important in determining official cause of death." Posted by: Really?? | Apr 3 2020 2:33 utc | 178

Nothing like stating the obvious. Which is still not relevant to the point that these people would be alive today if they had the normal flu rather than one that ravages lungs to the point where they go into systemic shock and heart failure.

Once again for the retarded, you don't see body bags loaded into refrigerated trucks in New York during a normal flu.

Get over your cognitive dissonance before you end up on a ventilator. Cognitive dissonance is more dangerous than a lot of diseases.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 3 2020 3:16 utc | 188

I explained @153 and @154.

It's not a statistic that is relevant to a new virus.

It's something that is relevant to accessing how well you're addressing KNOWN health issues.

It's a benchmark for overall performance. Was the flu shot effective this year? Was the media campaign to get people to take a flu shot effective? Etc.

The Off-G article even states:

They track “excess mortality”, meaning the number of officially recorded deaths vs the average death rate.

One can not compare something NEW to what happened in prior years.

If 'excess mortality' this year is low, that has no bearing on how serious of threat the new Coronovirus is or on how deadly it is. It is simply bullshit to pretend that it does.

And Off-G is not the only one pushing this bullshit.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 3:17 utc | 189

Richard Steven Hack @101

Since two others have mentioned this, I'll thrown this out.

Hegemonic ideologies tend to naturalize socioculturally-generated pathologies, often dismissing them as “human nature.”

I don’t understand you to be necessarily doing this when you identify “human nature” with callous self-centeredness given your other writing (and generously shared links) but it does sound like you are using the term too loosely in your post for materialists and others to philosophically stomach. I am not the only one who objected to the usage upon reading.

Can “human nature” be identified, labeled, discussed separate from historical and material conditions? Is “human nature” not constituted via dialectical processes at multiple levels occurring through time and space, not least of all cultural which is shaped by socioeconomic conditions.

Posted by: susan | Apr 3 2020 3:18 utc | 190

Posted by: ADKC | Apr 3 2020 2:04 utc | 171 "No anarchist would say 'No individual human gives a damn about any other human - unless that other human is personally important for reasons of money, power or sex.'

Bullshit. You obviously know zero about the history of anarchism, especially the individualist branch.

"Anarchy would hold that it is hierarchy and power than results in this behaviour and that it is far from "natural". Remove the hierarchy and humans would then cooperate and show their true love for each other."

Yeah - if you believe Kropotkin and the followers of that line. Which a lot of anarchists have not and do not.

And even if they did, it would be contradictory to the evidence of human history. Humans pair-bond, and bond to groups, yes. No one denies that AFAIK. But it's done for real personal reasons, as I indicated: money, power, and sex. There may be other reasons but these people who claim that humans are "naturally moral" or "naturally peaceful" are just idiots in my considered opinion.

"If your view of humanity is true that power and coercive hierarchy is required to control and protect humans from each other." I did *not* say that. What is necessary is for humans to get their heads out of their butts, learn to think rationally, and behave in accordance with their actual economic interests, unswayed by religion, the state, or even notions of "morality" and "society."

And that ain't gonna happen - because humans have too much susceptibility to emotions.

"Are humans only interested in their own desires and needs? Competing against each other? Taking what the can without regard for the other person? Nothing more than walking selfish genes? It's fairly obvious that you are not an anarchist and that you don't understand what anarchism is."

You should read Max Stirner. You'd love him. That's exactly his philosophy - and he's right. And since that's how people *actually behave*, except for the "virtue signalers" who want to prove how much more moral they are than everyone else - for the social acclaim which they seek for their own selfish emotional reasons - I'd say he's right.

You're the one who doesn't understand anarchism, the various flavors, and the rational probability that anything like that is feasible in human society as it stands.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 3 2020 3:28 utc | 191

No Drowning.

About Fracking Time, though:
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/04/02/us-oks-experimental-plasma-therapy-for-cv19-human-trials-begin/

Posted by: IronForge | Apr 3 2020 3:36 utc | 192

Posted by: ted01 | Apr 3 2020 1:38 utc | 165 "I agree you don't often encounter 'spit', but the way some people talk...."

See, this is how you tell that guy was a troll - he picked up on my random use of "sputum", when I should have said basically any effluvia coming off a person from the mouth, nose or via the hands after touching the mouth or nose. He completely ignores all the studies, including the one I posted just a while ago, about influenza and other diseases spreading via such effluvia.

Granted, no one knows *for sure* to what *degree* that happens in every virus, and specifically in this virus. But it's the *risk* that matters. Unquantifiable risk is worse than quantifiable risk. But for this guy and his ilk, if it isn't precise figures he figures it doesn't matter.

But he can't understand that and isn't interested in trying - he's trying to start or win an argument. Next he'd be advocating stopping the lockdown like that idiot virologist in German.

No one ever got a disease from kissing someone? Really? Awesome. That's why I just dismissed him. He's a troll or a complete moron.

"The point is that the asymptomatic carrier of corona virus still sneezes, coughs & has postnasal drip." Precisely. You nailed it.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 3 2020 3:38 utc | 193

@acar burak

I answered your question @191.

Now answer mine.

Do you live in Burak? Did you used to? Or is that just your Turkish cover?

Whose paying you to troll? CIA? MIT? Mossad? My guess is Mossad. But you probably THINK you work for someone else (Psst: it's called a "front company").

How's the pay? Better than you could make in Burak, I'd bet.

How long have you been at it? I'd guess you're new 'cause you're not very good at it. Maybe you're better at it in on Turkish-language websites?

Did they pull you away from the Turkish websites to help with the virus foul-up?

What do you think of the war in Idlib? Turks getting clobbered. Must be difficult to get recruits for a lost war.

Looking forward to your reply.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 3:39 utc | 194

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 3 2020 2:48 utc | 183

"Please explain how that is irrelevant in this context."

I checked. Jackrabbit is correct.

As he explained in #153, 153:

"excess deaths" is a statistic used by healthcare policy makers and practitioners to understand their effectiveness against influenza and other "ordinary" diseases. It's not relevant to a new virus.

The OffGuardian page either intentionally or out of ignorance fails to mention that the EuroMOMO maps exclude newly emerging diseases. Like Covid-19. The "Methods" page under the "EuroMOMO system" explains it.

Posted by: krypton | Apr 3 2020 3:41 utc | 195

jackrabbit @ 153, 173

... used by healthcare policy-makers and practioners to understand their effectiveness against influenza and other "ordinary" diseases.

One can not compare something NEW to what happened in prior years.

You keep asserting this without explaining why. I'm willing to be convinced; but I do not accept it merely because you assert it.

Here's how I see it:

There is nothing "new" about death, nor death by lung diseases. They happen every year. All deaths, from whatever cause contribute to the mortality statistic, which is one of the clearest statistics available. "excess mortality" is just as clear a statistic. Deaths this year minus deaths in some "average" year. Why would such a clear statistic not be useful for a new disease? Are deaths from new diseases somehow not deaths?

There are many types of lung disease. If this new disease is killing new classes of victims (or many more in the usual classes), then the "excess mortality" will go up. If, OTOH, the disease is killing people in the class (elderly and/or impaired) that would have died of whatever lung disease they happened to catch; and doing so at near the usual rate, then the "excess mortality" will not change. That's why I think the statistic is relevant to the virulence of this disease.

Many people are pointing out that the "excess mortality" of earlier "new" flues have been greater than this one, and they were not declared pandemics.

Please explain to me how "excess mortality" is not relevant, other than your blanket denial.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 3:43 utc | 196

john brewster @198

See my comment @191.

See krypton @197.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 3:46 utc | 197

jackrabbit @ 199

No. Your 191 is yet another assertion that the statistic is not applicable without an explanation or a pointer to an explanation.

I gave you a chain of reasoning. You give me an assertion. "used by healthcare policy makers" is not an answer, it is an appeal to authority.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 3:59 utc | 198

@snake 29

while it's a travesty that your water services have been privatized, recirculated water is potable; it has been disinfected and is not a vector for disease

Posted by: sned | Apr 3 2020 4:00 utc | 199

jackrabbit @ 199

I have to sign off for this evening. I hope you will respond with an explanation, which I will read in the morning.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 4:02 utc | 200

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