Why The U.S. Will Drown In Covid-19 Cases

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April 2, 2020

Here are examples for some of the reasons why the U.S. will now experience a gigantic epidemic wave.

The reasons include ill discipline, ignorance and incompetence, nutty religiousness and racism.

March 20 2020 – BBC

US students party on spring break despite coronavirus

Crowds of US university students flocked to Florida for their spring break, defying recommendations from the federal government and Center for Disease Control (CDC) over the coronavirus outbreak.

National health officials are advising against gatherings of 10 or more people.

April 1 2020 – NYT

44 Texas Students Have Coronavirus After Spring Break Trip

Two weeks ago, amid the coronavirus pandemic, about 70 students from the University of Texas at Austin partied in Mexico on spring break. The students, all in their 20s, flew on a chartered plane to Cabo San Lucas, and some returned on separate commercial flights to Texas.

Now, 44 of them have tested positive for the virus and are self-isolating. More students were monitored and tested on Wednesday, university officials said, after 28 initial positive tests.
…
Students at the University of Tampa, the University of Wisconsin-Madison and other colleges have tested positive after returning from spring break trips to Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and elsewhere.

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January 30 2020 – New England Journal of Medicine

Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany

We are reporting a case of 2019-nCoV infection acquired outside Asia in which transmission appears to have occurred during the incubation period in the index patient.
…
[I]t is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.

The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak.

April 2 2020

Andisheh Nouraee @andishehnouraee – 0:49 UTC · Apr 2, 2020

A stunning admission of deadly ignorance from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who says he only just learned that asymptomatic people can transmit #Covid19. “[I]ndividuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad, but we didn’t know that until the last 24 hours.” – vid

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March 4 2020 – NYT

Shadowy Church Is at Center of Coronavirus Outbreak in South Korea

At meetings of the secretive Shincheonji Church of Jesus, worshipers sit packed together on the floor, forbidden to wear glasses — or face masks. They come to church even when sick, former members say. After services, they split up into groups for Bible study, or to go out into the streets and proselytize.
…
Now, health officials are zeroing in on the church’s practices as they seek to contain South Korea’s alarming coronavirus outbreak, in which members of Shincheonji, along with their relatives and others who got the virus from them, account for more than half of the confirmed infections.

April 2 2020 – Bloomberg

Florida Follows Others in Allowing Church Amid Stay-Home Order

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a stay-at-home order after weeks of rejecting calls for such a measure. But like other mandates ranging from New York to New Mexico, it ensures that Floridians can still attend religious services.
…
The order comes after similar steps Tuesday in Texas, another late mover that made an exception for religious worship. Michigan imposed a stay-at-home order with a religious carve-out effective March 24.

Religious gatherings were also exempted from Ohio’s stay-at-home order, issued Sunday by Republican Governor Mike DeWine. Solid Rock, an Ohio megachurch whose Cincinnati location hosted an event for evangelical supporters of President Donald Trump last month, held an in-person service Sunday and said on its website that it would exert a constitutional right to continue meeting.

Other states that allow some exemption for religious services include Delaware, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, according to the Center for American Progress.

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Charles M. Blow @CharlesMBlow – 11:51 UTC · Apr 2, 2020

My god, I see a disaster brewing…

#COVID19Pandemic #RacialTimeBomb

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Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

The Coronavirus – No Need To Panic – Jan 25 2020
Novel Coronavirus Defies Conspiracy Theories As Data Shows Its Coming Decline – Feb 1 2020
The Epidemic Recedes – Number Of New Coronavirus Cases In Decline – Feb 8 2020
Coronavirus – Statistical Change Causes Confusion – New Case Count Continues To Decline – Feb 13 2020
Coronavirus – The Decline Of New Cases Continues – Economic Ripples Begin To Emerge – Feb 21 2020
As Virus Spreads Over The Planet Governments Are Slow To React – Feb 27 2020
Coronavirus – Its Time To Press Your Government To React Faster – Feb 29 2020
Coronavirus – Bad Preparation And Propaganda Increase The Onsetting Panic – Mar 6 2020
Why Is The Coronavirus More Dangerous Than The Flu? – Mar 9 2020
Coronavirus – The Hidden Cases – Why We Must Shut Everything Down And Do It Now – Mar 11 2020
News-Nugget About The Coronavirus Pandemic – Mar 13 2020
The Pandemic Will Cause A Global Depression – We Need Demand Side Measures To Counter It – Mar 16 2020
Coronavirus – A Lockdown Is Not Enough – Mar 17 2020
False Claims About The Novel Coronavirus And How To Debunk Them – Mar 19 2020
Congress Grifters Profit From Crisis – Mar 20 2020
Coronavirus – On Western Government Failures And Possible Therapies – Mar 21 2020
Coronavirus – How To Lift Lockdowns And Why We Should All Wear Masks – Mar 23 2020
More Bits On The Corona Crisis – Mar 26 2020
U.S. Virus Cases Are Off The Scale – But Its People Can Build A Movement From This – Mar 31 2020
China Did Not Deceive Us – Counting Death During An Epidemic Is Really Difficult– Apr 1 2020
Why The U.S. Will Drown In Covid-19 Cases – Apr 2 2020

Posted by b on April 2, 2020 at 15:49 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Saudi Arabia suspends Umra and has asked Muslims planning to take part in the Hajj pilgrimage to delay booking amid uncertainty over the coronavirus pandemic.
USA state governments condone church services and crazed ministers encourage them!
Saudi may have one of the nastier and most fanatical government in the world but they are not delusional overall. The USA?

Posted by: jrkrideau | Apr 2 2020 16:15 utc | 1

Now overlay those maps with maps of gun ownership.
Unemployment, government fecklessness, collapse of health care is going to lead to riots, with xenophobic hate-mongering added to the fire. And guns.

Posted by: occupatio | Apr 2 2020 16:19 utc | 2

I heard an anecdote that ISIS is urging its adherents to practice social distancing. In the favelas of Rio, the drug gangs are enforcing social distancing. The world has turned upside down when drug gangs and ISIS are more solicitous of the health of the people than the elected officials in the US.

Posted by: Peter VE | Apr 2 2020 16:20 utc | 3

The good news is that the days when the Empire’s default reaction was to bomb anything that annoyed it is over.
The bad news is that the new strategy is to mount massive propaganda campaigns in the hope that the public will accept that the ruling class doesn’t make mistakes-but foreign devils will do anything to hurt us. Thus placing their trust in the longevity of the anti Chinese Anti-Russian and anti-communist themes that dominated western conventional wisdom for the past century.
The bottom line is that, if you want to prepare for the future, plan against eventualities and provide security for society you don’t employ an “invisible hand” to take the big decisions and trust in Providence that market forces, driven by greed, will do the right thing. They never have.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 2 2020 16:20 utc | 4

Verity et al. (March 30, 2020) have estimated the (adjusted) case fatality ratio, infection fatality ratio, and proportion of infections requiring hospitalization:

             Crude    Adjusted           Hospitalization
             CFR (%)  CFR (%)   IFR (%)  Rate (%)

    0-9       0.000   0.00260   0.00161   0.00
    10-19     0.182   0.0148    0.00695   0.0408
    20-29     0.193   0.0600    0.0309    1.04
    30-39     0.237   0.146     0.0844    3.43
    40-49     0.443   0.295     0.161     4.25
    50-59     1.30    1.25      0.595     8.16
    60-69     3.60    3.99      1.93     11.8
    70-79     7.96    8.61      4.28     16.6
    80+      14.8    13.4       7.80     18.4

    Total     2.29    1.38      0.657

Posted by: S | Apr 2 2020 16:23 utc | 5

The distance traveled map is inverse to the number of actual nCOV cases though.
New York, New Jersey and Michigan are the 3 worst hit states by far…

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 16:24 utc | 6

Homo sapiens is certainly the second most stupid creation, after the Ebola virus. The Ebola virus is killing everybody and thus removes its basis for reproduction. Imagine how smart rhinoviruses are! They do not kill but have managed, during evolution, to make their hosts sneeze and get running noses, so can spread and flourish. They can also mutate to ever increasing variants, so no vaccine made by homo stupidus could ever limit their reproduction, season after season. Sars-CoV-2 is a different story. It doesn’t kill like Ebola but is much more contagious. It leads to overwhelmed health care systems, so people indirectly die of lack of care.
Seems so as if Corona is quite smart. It will stop unhinged capitalism. Global warming will come to an end, at least for some time. Homo stupidus may become part of the evolution again. The old and unfit, wealthy and spoiled, will die and die quickly.

Posted by: HPM | Apr 2 2020 16:32 utc | 7

Philip Giraldi knows who to blame:
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/04/02/another-expensive-war-another-intelligence-failure/
“…the intelligence agencies were warning about information derived from medical sources in China that suggested viruses were developing that might become a pandemic, but the politicians, most particularly those in the White House, chose to take no action. He writes that “…the Trump administration has cumulatively failed, both in taking seriously the specific, repeated intelligence community warnings about a coronavirus outbreak and in vigorously pursuing the nationwide response initiatives commensurate with the predicted threat. The federal government alone has the resources and authorities to lead the relevant public and private stakeholders to confront the foreseeable harms posed by the virus. Unfortunately, Trump officials made a series of judgments (minimizing the hazards of COVID-19) and decisions (refusing to act with the urgency required) that have needlessly made Americans far less safe.”
“The article cites evidence that the intelligence community was collecting disturbing information on possibly developing pathogens in China and was, as early as January, preparing analytical reports that detailed just what was happening while also providing insights into how devastating the global proliferation of a highly contagious and potential lethal virus might be. One might say that the intel guys called it right, but were ignored by the White House, which, per Zenko, acted with “unprecedented indifference, even willful negligence….”

Posted by: bevin | Apr 2 2020 16:32 utc | 8

Here’s an insightful scary piece on the prognosis (very bad) for the U.S. economy:
“This Looks Like a Depression, Not a Recession:
Until we have a vaccine, we are barreling towards economic catastrophe”
https://marker.medium.com/this-looks-like-a-depression-not-a-recession-16a123f966d8

Posted by: JPM | Apr 2 2020 16:33 utc | 9

– I see another reason why the Corona virus could spead more than is necessesary. More and more lock downs will drive up the cost for state government and those state governments will be “reluctant” to impose a lock down. And when a lot of minorities die then that would be a solution to their financial problems. Then they can save on social benefits etc.
– Brian Kemp is one those “racially motivated” to not impose regulations to combat the spreading of the virus. Kemp made efforts to keep the black and latino population in his state from voting in the elections in which he became the governor of Georgia.

Posted by: Willy2 | Apr 2 2020 16:33 utc | 10

god family and country Americans are stopid

Posted by: JC | Apr 2 2020 16:35 utc | 11

“The world has turned upside down when drug gangs and ISIS are more solicitous of the health of the people than the elected officials in the US.”
Peter VE@3
Has it though? Few institutions on earth have been less solicitous of popular health than the elected officials of the United States- sponsored as most of them are by the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse- Big Pharma; the MIC; chemicalised agriculture/ food processing; Silicon Valley and the mainstream media.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 2 2020 16:38 utc | 12

Stanford U. Prof. of Medicine & Epidemiology:
Covid-19 is ‘evidence fiasco’ –
‘Official 3.4% [fatality] rate from WHO’ is ‘meaningless’ –
‘We are making decisions without reliable data’
https://www.climatedepot.com/2020/03/18/stanford-u-prof-of-medicine-epidemiology-covid-19-is-evidence-fiasco-official-3-4-fatality-rate-from-who-is-meaningless-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Posted by: Hannibal | Apr 2 2020 16:39 utc | 13

Why The U.S. Will Drown In Covid-19 Cases
Western Mitigation Strategy vs. Eastern Suppression Strategy
Mitigation = high Big Pharma profits
Suppression = low Big Pharma profits
<> <> <> <> <>
Flatten the Curve: A Prescription for Failure
Covid-19 Trumped-up CRISIS! Allows Government-assisted Profiteering: Chloroquine vs. Remdesivir
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 2 2020 16:42 utc | 14

The overlap of these last 2 maps is harrowing..

Posted by: Lozion | Apr 2 2020 16:45 utc | 15

@c1ue (comment 6)
Are you relying on reported case counts (because actual testing has revealed the true state of infection in each state) or do you have your own special methodology?

Posted by: RenoRich | Apr 2 2020 16:47 utc | 16

Eye-watering read. Who could have guessed;
the great exceptional U.S.A with over 80% under lockdown,
out of the unemployed gate, 10 million stuck at home and jobless.
Reuters presents this grim read. Is this article on a country in equatorial Africa? A sobering No.
The White House task force on the pandemic estimates the pandemic could kill 100,000 to 240,000 people even if lockdown orders remain in place and Americans abide by them.[.]
U.S. deaths, joblessness mount as coronavirus exacts toll on Americans

The number of Americans who filed for unemployment benefits last week shattered the previous high reached just a week earlier, the U.S. government said, as urgent measures to contain the pandemic slammed the brakes on the economy.
“It takes your breath away,” said Justin Hoogendoorn, head of fixed income strategy and analytics at Piper Sandler in Chicago. “Obviously the immediate reaction to something like that is going to be fear.”
Florida, Georgia, Mississippi and Nevada told people to stay home on Wednesday, raising to 39 the number of states with such orders. Public health experts call the measures an urgent necessity but economists say they could lead to economic contraction of 30 percent or more in the second quarter.[.]
New York City crematories are extending their hours and burning bodies into the night, with corpses piling up so quickly that city officials are surveying cemeteries elsewhere in the state for temporary interment sites.
Funeral homes and cemetery directors describe a surge in demand unseen in decades as COVID-19 cases, the respiratory ailment caused by the novel coronavirus, surpassed 40,000 infections in the city, killing more than 1,000.
“We’ve been preparing for a worst-case scenario, which is in a lot of ways starting to materialize,” said Mike Lanotte, executive director of the New York State Funeral Directors Association.[.]

The $42 Trillion question. How will the Fed inflate the busted ~~bubble~~ balloon..illusion of prosperity? This time it’s different.

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 2 2020 16:55 utc | 17

The reasons include ill discipline, ignorance and incompetence, nutty religiousness and racism.
Also the deplorable state of American citizen’s health, decades of austerity for public health care, profiteering by the health insurance cartels and Wall Street, and gross negligence by government officials.
Yesterday’s count Was 217k cases in the US. Daily increase is roughly 15% and growing.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases

Posted by: Noah Way | Apr 2 2020 17:02 utc | 18

jesus saves!!! or ignorance is bliss… take yer pick… thanks b…

Posted by: james | Apr 2 2020 17:03 utc | 19

That “Jesus saves” phrase will me remind of this forever
https://www.memecenter.com/fun/3092063/so-i-amp-039-ve-made-an-art-car-for-a-friend-of-mine

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Apr 2 2020 17:07 utc | 20

lol tuyzentfloot… i liked that line – you had one job! jesus that is funny!

Posted by: james | Apr 2 2020 17:10 utc | 21

US CASE FATALITY RATE OVER 20%?
Ron Unz has been trying to figure out the total number of infections in the United States starting from the number of reported deaths. His estimates are eight to ten times larger than the officially-reported Coronavirus totals.

Correctly Estimating Coronavirus Infections
However, the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable, and I soon noticed a simple and easy means of reasonably estimating Coronavirus infections from Coronavirus deaths.
Summarizing things, the formula for estimating infections is:

Number of infected = Number of Deaths / Mortality_Rate *2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period).

There is a similar argument on Yahoo Finance from March 20, 2020 that claims that “Right now 2 million Americans are infected with the coronavirus.”
I find these estimates too high and the fatality rates used too low. Unz also underestimates the doubling rate in the US. It is not 3-6 days. The growth rate is more like ten-fold every 7 to 8 days. Using Unz’s formula and updated numbers from five days ago with a case fatality rate of 0.8% I came up with a figure of 153 million people infected. This cannot be true.
Actually I have been trying to do the reverse, estimate the case fatality rate from the number of dead. This is difficult because of the exponential growth rate of cases. Deaths lag new cases by about two weeks.
The latest article in The Lancet estimates that it takes on average 17.8 days from first symptoms to death. It will take a few days from symptoms to being tested and the results reported, meaning that the average time from a case being reported to death may be 12 to 14 days.
Yesterday there were 4,745 COVID-19 deaths in the United States. Two weeks earlier, on March 18th there were 8,074 cases reported. Dividing the two numbers would give a case fatality rate of 59%. Some of the people who died may have only been tested positive a week earlier. But in that case most of those tested on the same day and who will end up dead have yet to die. Now matter how I look at the numbers I cannot see how the CFR for the early cases could be under 10%. It may however be that these early cases disproportionately consist of older age groups.
I made a similar analysis of cases in Finland. This was easier as the number of new cases has been stabile for the last two weeks. I came up with a CFR of 5%.

Posted by: Petri Krohn | Apr 2 2020 17:16 utc | 22

More on America’s great Wuhan Urn Psyops of 2020.
US pushes conspiracy theory on China’s coronavirus death toll to deflect from Trump administration failures
https://thegrayzone.com/2020/04/01/us-conspiracy-theory-on-china-coronavirus-trump/
Add this to the list of American disinformation campaigns like mythical Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction; Kuwaiti Incubator babies; Muammar Qaddafi’s “Viagra rape squads”; Syrian “chemical weapons” use in Douma; Russia hacking America’s faux democracy; USA-armed moderate jihadists in Syria; and the fraudulent War on Terror.
The more people die in America because of the Coronavirus pandemic, the more America points the finger at China … as if this somehow makes the Land of the Free’s criminal negligence in this pandemic more “tolerable.”
Pathetic.
Truly Pathetic.

Posted by: ak74 | Apr 2 2020 17:22 utc | 23

“Global warming will come to an end, at least for some time.”
This is probably not true. Dr. Roy Spencer, who tends the satellite temperature records for NASA, had this to say just a couple of days ago:
“The northern extratropics (poleward of 20 deg. N) experienced the 12th largest drop in tropospheric temperature out of the 495 months of the satellite record. For those interested in speculating regarding reasons for this, it could not be from reduced CO2 emissions from the response to the spread of COVID-19; to the extent that recent warming has been due to more CO2 in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing from extra CO2 would not change substantially even if all CO2 emissions stopped for a full year.”
Further, if you follow the writings of Dr. Spencer and his colleague John Christy, you will learn that satellite measurements of global temperature–which are the most accurate modern record that we have–show that fears of global warming are much exaggerated. Indeed, it is not certain if the modest warming we are seeing is due to human activity at all.

Posted by: R.A. | Apr 2 2020 17:25 utc | 24

The ‘ignorance’ component is more about *when* people realize the severity of the problem and fall into line than whether they will realize it at all. Part of this is groupthink. Once everyone around you thinks the same the dissenting idea starts to feel very unreasonable and embarassing. You’ll get dissident groups too, religious and others.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Apr 2 2020 17:27 utc | 25

Some of the underlying ‘causes’ of the mega-disaster to unfold in USA.
Geography, huge, with Federation pol. structure.
It appears the Fed. authorities are weak and disorganised, etc. Ex. the CDC seems to play little role, not a consequent one. States put in place their own policies, which vary from quite strict to almost none at all re. preventing contact (1, just an ex., not much good) and generally, coordination is lacking – a patchwork of policies absent strictly enforced borders will produce crap results.
Society.
Exceptionalism and individualism. Americans are used to feeling ‘exceptional’, i.e. free to do as they please or what they *think* is fit (individualim, in fact the scope for action for citizens is very narrow), righteous and protected (exeptionalism..), and I mean this not in the sense that ppl will resist constraints / orders / appeals, advice, etc. but that the society is too dependent on opinions, tribes, cult-like groups, as all is OK (identity politics, cultish religions, wacky opinions, not to mention cabals, monopolistic groups, etc.) and is reflected, taken on board, by authorities – see some of b’s exs.
Oligarchy and crony capitalism.
Health care, public health are For Profit Enterprises. Such a system is incapable of taking care of the population on the ground, it isn’t designed for that, and can’t take on the task. The MIC (medical industrial complex, Big Pharma the no. 1 actor, med. machinery no. 2.) is geared to extracting profit where it can be found.
This implies billing those who can pay (privatising health care > the rich have access but the poor not), and giving a lot of room to ‘middle men’ (e.g. insurance cos) who can extract from the middles and plebs what they can ‘bear’ or ‘pay’ outside of any illness or need for health care. Scam on scam, institutionalised.
It also ensures that treatment, procedures, medications, and more will be based on ‘what can be sold’ to a gullible public or ‘what can be made mandatory / heavily advised’ thru lobbying, i.e. in accord with the corrupted stooge Gvmt. — completely divorced from any public health criteria.
So this won’t end well….(not that other countries are so much better, but other topic.)
https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

Posted by: Noirette | Apr 2 2020 17:32 utc | 26

S #5
Putting the U.S. population pyramid, the infection hospitalization ratios, and the infection fatality ratios together, we get:

    Age      Population   IHR (%)    Hospit-ns   IFR (%)      Deaths

    0–9      39,891,845    0.00              0   0.00161         642
    10–19    42,398,071    0.0408       17,298   0.00695       2,947
    20–29    46,179,065    1.04        480,262   0.0309       14,269
    30–39    43,980,069    3.43      1,508,516   0.0844       37,119
    40–49    40,288,440    4.25      1,712,259   0.161        64,864
    50–59    42,557,686    8.16      3,472,707   0.595       253,218
    60–69    37,845,098   11.8       4,465,722   1.93        730,410
    70–79    23,009,234   16.6       3,819,533   4.28        984,795
    80+      12,915,409   18.4       2,376,435   7.80      1,007,402

    Total   329,064,917             17,852,732             3,095,666

Adjusting for percentage of U.S. population infected:

      %    Hospit-ns      Deaths

      1      178,527      30,957
      2      357,055      61,913
      3      535,582      92,870
      4      714,109     123,827
      5      892,637     154,783
     10    1,785,273     309,567
     15    2,677,910     464,350
     20    3,570,546     619,133
     40    7,141,093   1,238,266
     60   10,711,639   1,857,400
     80   14,282,186   2,476,533
    100   17,852,732   3,095,666

Posted by: S | Apr 2 2020 17:39 utc | 27

Willy2 @10–
I see another reason why the Corona virus could spead more than is necessesary. More and more lock downs will drive up the cost for state government and those state governments will be “reluctant” to impose a lock down. And when a lot of minorities die then that would be a solution to their financial problems. Then they can save on social benefits etc.
The largest cohort of people getting “social benefits” are white, not “minorities,” a statistical fact going back to the Great Depression. Thanks for showing your true colors, as it were.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 2 2020 17:42 utc | 28

more profit making?”
Folks i have a question.. in my area, as in most densely populated areas the genius who think of ways to scam the flocks have mixed the drinking water delivered to homes and business with the Shit, piss, and spent water delivered from the homes to the privately owned water mixing units.(called water and sewer facilities). Any chance this little money making scam (water and sewer went from about $14 a month to over $120 a month as the city public water and sewer systems were privatized over everyone’s objection) which delivers recirculated water <=it calls drinking water <=is carrying the Covid 19? They floated a $100, million dollar bond to buy out the city water and sewer system.. which was worth may two million was a 40 year bond.. I recall. .

Posted by: snake | Apr 2 2020 17:46 utc | 29

@Jackrabbit (14)
I think you could add to your mitigation column. A few months where we can’t even demonstrate against the oppressive legislation they are rolling out.

Posted by: MarkU | Apr 2 2020 17:48 utc | 30

S #27
These figures are based on an assumption that the U.S. healthcare system has unlimited capacity. If it is overwhelmed, the actual number of deaths will be higher (somewhere between “Deaths” and “Hospitalizations”).

Posted by: S | Apr 2 2020 17:55 utc | 31

@ Hannibal 13
>> Stanford U. Prof. of Medicine & Epidemiology:
“One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue.”
Good to hear he’s got his priorities straight.

Posted by: oglalla | Apr 2 2020 18:01 utc | 32

There were around 400 millions fire arms in civilian hands in USA, more per-capita that any country in the world, including countries with protacted civil wars and failed states like Yemen or Somalia, etc…And now the civilian population is arming to the teeth even more just to avoid to be assaulted when the riots start, so the sense of community is completely lost in the country.
Imagine the situation if the health care system is completely overwhelmed and the national guard must be deployed to prevent people from access forcibly to the hospital because their relatives are literally dying at the doors of the hospital, just to maintain the order. But suddenly someone, one man, a marine vet, that has their wife suffocating to death and try to acces by force pointing his AR-15 to the national guards in the gates, and a nervous young soldier just shot at the man but missed, the man start straffing the national guards with his AR-15, and then some stupid young soliers in a Humvee started to fight back using an 0.5 caliber machine gun to the crowd where the man was shooting (he thought he was in Iraq again); in the ensuing fight 6 people die and 20 are wounded some very seroiusly, after three hours many friends and family of the fallen, from an armed militia, started to shoot to the national guard garrison. The battle of Kansas City has just started, and the USA army finally deploy Abrams MBT and Apache helicos to deter the militia. USA starts to look a lot like Iraq in many places.
Could this be possible?
I think this is the reason they force the lockdown, the civil cohesion of the USA is very weak and a collapse of the social order could be order of magnitude worse than the collapse of the Soviet Union

Posted by: DFC | Apr 2 2020 18:11 utc | 33

>Western Mitigation Strategy vs. Eastern Suppression Strategy
>Mitigation = high Big Pharma profits
>Suppression = low Big Pharma profits
Mitigation will fail because no one trusts any pronouncements of Dear Leaders. NPR nitwits were talking about having lockdowns for 12 to 18 months “until we get a [magic] vaccine”. They are truly delusional if they really think that people will sit in their homes and starve for more than a very short time.
For several weeks Maine CDC published number of positive tests and number of negative tests. On the same day the governor announced we are all under house arrest, the number of negative tests disappeared. A bit of searching found this buried note:

Because of the number of outside labs that are testing samples from Maine, it is no longer possible to post an accurate count of negative tests.

But they still publish the number of positive tests! Comparing number of positives to number of negatives reveals the reason the number is hidden:
In Maine, over 90% of the tests are NEGATIVE**
The number of new cases each day is less than 50 and not changing much. Instead of test, treat, and trace we have OBEY ORDERS! Trump is right that not every area needs the same restrictions. It takes a whole economy in rural areas for New Yorkers to have toilet paper. Rural economies are heading towards zero and there is no plan to bring them back.
Perhaps US peons instinctively understand this, in which case hoarding is a very reasonable response.
**The edit box doesn’t like Wayback Machine links. Enter the link into the Wayback Machine, select March 30, and observe:
Confirmed: 253
Deaths: 3
Negative: 3394

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Apr 2 2020 18:14 utc | 34

and the real conumdrum -is the fine print-impeding promised aid from the same banksters who are showered with free money:
U.S. borrowers struggle to get coronavirus relief from big banks

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. borrowers seeking a reprieve from mortgage, auto or credit card payments because of coronavirus hardships are not getting the help they expected from big banks that promised assistance in recent weeks.
JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) and Citigroup Inc (C.N) are among lenders that announced programs to help customers whose income has suddenly dropped because of illness, layoffs or government-imposed business closures stemming from the pandemic.
But fine print can prevent customers from getting assistance, borrowers and bank sources said.
For instance, lenders offering 90-day forbearance on mortgage payments are limited in how they can structure help for customers whose loans are owned by investors.
Mortgage-bond holders are still requiring monthly payments even if borrowers do not pay. Banks have been willing to foot the bill for a few months, but will ultimately need cooperation from investors.
Some customers are finding they are expected to write a big check as soon as the grace period ends, rather than having missed payments tacked onto the end of the loan.[.]

and
Thousands of U.S. banks may sit out small-business rescue plan on liability worries:

Thousands of U.S. banks, including some of the country’s largest lenders, have said they may not participate in the federal government’s small-business rescue program due to concerns about taking on too much legal and financial risk, five people with direct knowledge of industry discussions told Reuters.[.]

The small business owner has a mandatory “to Close order” – no cash flow and is expected to (a)take on additional loans to stay afloat and (b) sign a document attesting to their eligibility and other requirements, thereby relieving the industry of responsibility for potential misconduct.
Anyone thinking the U.S. will have a quick recovery is delusional.

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 2 2020 18:21 utc | 35

@bevin #8
In January? Really? Seems like the highly paid and budgeted intelligence agencies should be able to do a better job of predicting the nCOV threat before China instituted a shutdown on January 23 due to its view that nCOV was a problem.
Frankly, seems more like intel agency ass covering than anything else.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 18:32 utc | 36

@ 35
…”Anyone thinking the U.S. will have a quick recovery is delusional.”… I guess by this report no!
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/fauci-says-lockdown-will-continue-until-there-are-no-new-cases-covid-19

Posted by: Taffyboy | Apr 2 2020 18:33 utc | 37

@S #127
I would note that any 1 year infection numbers beyond 30% are not very credible.
And beyond 1 year, there is a strong likelihood that there will be a vaccine developed and tested.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 2 2020 18:35 utc | 38

I’ve been following this site since 2014 and have a master’s degree, but I need that “miles traveled” graphic explained to me.

Posted by: DougDiggler | Apr 2 2020 18:36 utc | 39

On tap — under discussion:
Never let a crisis be wasted. Your special passport please –
Deutsche Bank Predicts ‘Immunity Passports’ for Travel in COVID-19’s Wake – Reports

This week, the World Health Organization said it expects the number of new coronavirus infections to rise to over a million cases in the coming days, with UN chief Antonio Guterres saying that in additional to the danger to public health, the pandemic is set to become the biggest threat to global peace since World War II.
The COVID-19 outbreak may lead nations to create a new kind of ‘immunity passport’ to try to ensure that travelers entering various countries are in a good state of health, a study by Germany’s Deutsche Bank seen by Barron’s magazine suggests.[.]

So stupid an idea. I am issued an all is well Immunity Passport dated April 5, 2020. What is the expiry date? I take up my travel plans mid May. Hmmm and ?

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 2 2020 18:41 utc | 40

Good news from Senegal: the patients treated with hydroxichloroquine are quickly recovering.
https://www.ouest-france.fr/sante/virus/coronavirus/coronavirus-le-senegal-poursuit-le-traitement-par-chloroquine-apres-des-resultats-encourageants-6798356
https://ewn.co.za/2020/04/02/senegal-says-hydroxychloroquine-virus-treatment-is-promising

Posted by: Mina | Apr 2 2020 18:43 utc | 41

The reasons include ill discipline, ignorance and incompetence, nutty religiousness and racism.

OTOH, Germans are disciplined, educated, competent, largely secular and non-racist.
And yet, today Germany overtook China with the number of confirmed cases.
Plus more that 1000 dead.
And with no end on sight.
How so?

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 2 2020 18:45 utc | 42

>https://www.zerohedge.com/health/fauci-says-lockdown-will-continue-until-there-are-no-new-cases-covid-19
>Posted by: Taffyboy | Apr 2 2020 18:33 utc | 37
So far I can find no confirmation of these claims beyond some Twitter post. So maybe this is gossip.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Apr 2 2020 18:56 utc | 43

My Sociology professor, an American lecturing overseas, always referred to his homeland as “the only Christian Fundamentalist country on earth”. I often laugh at comparing Christian conservatives paradoxically being very similar to Muslims, even though they may hate them and join the military to fight them. Maybe that is why their leaders like Pompeo and Bush love Saudi Arabia so much.
But the funniest irony of it all is that while Iran may have exacerbated CV19 spread due to religious ignorance, so will the USA, and in the end, who cares what brand that ignorance wears, it is always ignorance and a sad place for human intellects to die in.

Posted by: EtTu | Apr 2 2020 19:01 utc | 44

Trailer Trash | Apr 2 2020 18:14 utc | 34
Not sure Maine is any kind of indicator of this outing. If Maine was a boat it would tip over north to south. Way more people down south in that state. Many of the deaths come from Ocean View a retirement community with rich folks who travel else where in winter and bring the crowned death with them.
Everyone up north in the state don’t travel much. How far can you go with a horse and buggy? They work by them selves because they hate to be told what to do. They work on the water, on the mud flats, in the woods cuttin wood or out in the fields all day long. Not much chance of infection. Everyone keeps to themselves and has a great distrust of flat landers, that being anyone who does not have three generations born and raised in Maine.

Posted by: stove pipe alley | Apr 2 2020 19:05 utc | 45

Nope, sorry, not gossip, just bad searching by me. Please accept my apologies, Taffyboy.
Anthony Fauci says coronavirus ‘might keep coming back’ year after year — ‘the ultimate game changer in this will be a vaccine’

‘If we get to the part of the curve where it goes down to essentially no new cases, no deaths for a period of time, I think it makes sense that you have to relax social distancing’
“The one thing we hope to have in place, and I believe we will have in place, is a much more robust system to be able to identify someone who is infected, isolate them, and then do contact tracing.”

Sounds like someday they might set up a real test, treat, and trace program, but no specifics. I learned a decade ago that when an NIH official says, “We hope to have in place”, they really mean, “Not an F’ing Chance In Hell Will We Do It”.
Someone really needs to investigate Fauci’s connections to the drug industry, patent royalties, and NIH “public-private partnerships”. Something here stinks to high heaven, and it’s not just yesterday’s fish.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Apr 2 2020 19:09 utc | 46

“The largest cohort of people getting “social benefits” are white, not “minorities,” a statistical fact going back to the Great Depression. Thanks for showing your true colors, as it were.”
Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 2 2020 17:42 utc | 28
Until the 2020 US Census ‘data’ is published, whites are still the majority of the population in the US, Einstein. Until all of the multi-millions of illegal alien Mestizos are all counted and correctly labeled as non-white Amero-Indians, it will be that whites are the majority. Your hair-trigger bigotry shows very well.

Posted by: Winston | Apr 2 2020 19:13 utc | 47

The French know better: several MPs and gov members have been on recorded explaining the masses that using masks is a bad idea because people will feel protected and stop washing their hands!

Posted by: Mina | Apr 2 2020 19:14 utc | 48

>Not sure Maine is any kind of indicator of this outing.
That’s exactly why universal house arrest is unnecessary. That was my whole point, that our entire state economy will be destroyed for what is a non-event for much of the state.
How about test-treat-trace, like starting today? Nope. It’s Obey or Suffer. And hide the facts mushroom-style. New Yorkers better save the New York Times for wiping their bums.

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Apr 2 2020 19:18 utc | 49

>masks is a bad idea because people will feel protected and stop washing their hands!
The US Surgeon General Nitwit said the same thing on national TV. Plus if regular people buy masks there won’t be enough for medical people. Maybe if regular people buy and wear masks the medical people wouldn’t need as many, but that idea doesn’t occur to brain-dead leaders.
Why are they working so hard to discourage masks? Because it wasn’t their idea?

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Apr 2 2020 19:25 utc | 50

Added to mine @ 40
Well well, look what i stumbled upon. Billy G has surfaced. He has a website called GatesNotes that promo his new passion -COVID-19. Pre-alert he is pitching and admits.
(No, I do not wish to become a Gates Notes Insider).
Would you know it; yes indeed: Digital Certificates – No it is not a conspiracy theory.
31 questions and answers about COVID-19

[19 Mar 2020 … 19. Yesterday I did a Reddit Ask Me Anything session on COVID-19. … Some people like health care workers will be doing heroic work and we need to support them. … Therapeutics because the number being proposed is very large and … Eventually we will have some digital certificates to show who has …]
Question:
What changes are we going to have to make to how businesses operate to maintain our economy while providing social distancing?
The question of which businesses should keep going is tricky. Certainly food supply and the health system. We still need water, electricity and the internet. Supply chains for critical things need to be maintained. Countries are still figuring out what to keep running.
Eventually we will have some digital certificates to show who has recovered or been tested recently or when we have a vaccine who has received it.[.] (added emphasis in the last sentence)

And it begins. the Debt Jubilee of 2020:-
Magic money tree?’: UK writes off £13.4 billion NHS debt amid Covid-19 pandemic
Just the tip of the debt iceberg.

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 2 2020 19:30 utc | 51

Why is moon of alabama, not including the fact the fatality rate for those under 25 without immune compromised system is zero. The majority of people dying are those over 70 which in normal distribution of death are always going to be higher. In other words getting the corona virus isn’t a death warrant it is part of nature. Viruses mutate and spread among the population every year and the elderly and those with health issues are susceptible to catching them and dying but the majority of the population ie those under 70 may get it, but don’t die from it.
Why is this year different when death rates from previous years have been just as high? Are certain vested interests using this virus as a means to push some other agenda?

Posted by: Jim | Apr 2 2020 19:32 utc | 52

Trailer Trash “Why are they working so hard to discourage masks?”
Lack of testing, no quarantine for infectious disease – incompetence or deliberate moves to spread disease… all coupled to “blame China” policy.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 2 2020 19:33 utc | 53

@JPM
Since a vaccine is at least a year away (if it ever comes at all), we’re pretty fucked.
@R.A.
Spencer and Christy are, basically, lying frauds. They’re the source of the ‘global warming gap’ lie. They keep making ‘errors’ that point in one way, and when those ‘mistakes’ are corrected, oh look, the satellite data was actually in line with the ground measurements the whole time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo_7q-w06B4
https://skepticalscience.com/more-errors-identified-uah.html
I’ve said this before, but it’s really surreal to watch climate deniers try to peddle their bullshit while the ice is literally melting in real-time and business is already capitalizing on it.

Posted by: Benjamin | Apr 2 2020 19:33 utc | 54

China buys medical supply abroad back in Feb – Red menace!
USA does the same – HERO!
USA hijacks medical supplies destined for France with double in cash, on tarmac! Super double HERO becoz ‘MERICA! FK YEAH!
oh the irony….

Posted by: A.L. | Apr 2 2020 19:34 utc | 55

Petri Krohn @ 22

I made a similar analysis(sic) of cases in Finland. This was easier as the number of new cases has been stabile for the last two weeks. I came up with a CFR of 5%.

Yeah, and I made a critique of that pile of speculation, which you have yet to even acknowledge, much less respond to.
Yet here you are again, making more wild speculations based on nothing more than some cherry picked data and your own opinion.

I find these estimates too high and the fatality rates used too low.

Based on what, exactly?

Now matter how I look at the numbers I cannot see how the CFR for the early cases could be under 10%.

And your expertise in these matters is what, exactly?
This comment (#22, that is) displays the same pattern of assertions from your own authority, and no real evidence. Again, I beg you to stop wasting everyone’s time with your unsupported, solipsistic flights of fancy.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 2 2020 19:38 utc | 56

Big milestone in the great covid race: China drops to fifth place as Germany surges and the global total confirmed count breezes past a million.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 19:41 utc | 57

49
Out to shop today.Universal house arrest is unnecessary and I do not see anyone paying attention. Parents are home because their kids are home. You are allowed to be out working if your job is essential. Every Mainer knows his or her job is in fact essential.
Seems like everyone in Augusta are authoritarian and must act like it. So they make all these declarations so they can say they did something that day. No body really pays any attention until its a money bill. One could not say they were a logger unless they actually cut wood. Everybody knows this.
The big question is what are ya going to do on Bingo night?

Posted by: stove pipe alley | Apr 2 2020 19:41 utc | 58

Truths about mask:
1. does it stop you from catching the bug 100%? No, including N95, P100, whatever. there’s leakage and also many other infection vectors.
2. do most people know how to don, adjust and handle used masks properly? No
3. does it help? yes, every little bit is better than nothing
4. dirty little secret – for most of Asia with exception of probably Japan, people wear mask not because they are trying to protect others if they are asymptomatic carriers. They do it out of good old self preservation. it DOES, however, have the useful side effect that the end result is the same – asymptomatic carriers are also covered.

Posted by: A.L. | Apr 2 2020 19:46 utc | 59

@Posted by: ak74 | Apr 2 2020 17:22 utc | 23
People without scruples or a basic of moral will blame anyone except themselves.
It seems that Pence, the head of the task force against Coronavirus in the US, blamed the doctors of the CDC during the last press conference of the WH.
This, when, as I read yesterday, the task group of the WH to fight pandemics, of which the CDC was part, was dismantled soon after Trump took power and the budge of the CDC consideraly reduced.
We all know the tendence of this WH adminsitration in ignoring science and spreading magiacl thinking, the first of them Trump, totally surrounded by crazy tele-preachers like that blonde scoundrel woman he appointed to certain position, who makes millions out of scamming ignorant people.This is why ministers and preachers do not want to lock down, because they make a good money out of their “ministry”…
Just saw on TV News prime time the nurses in the US crying over the lack of protection and menaces they moreover are suffering if they complain..
By menacing the health workers and throwing all the shit of their responsability on the doctors, the US will not win this fight.
As has been seen in Italy and Spain, the health workers need all the support of the government but also of the people of the country, to be able to cop with the overwhleming workload, own contagius, and also the overwhelming ammount of people who will die in their hands in short time, something health workers are not accustomed in the “first world”.
I Spain, at least, the population was called, by whoever, to applaud the health workers ( and other essential wokers ) who bear most of the burden in this at 8pm everyday from the balconies.
Some think this is stupid, but some health workers have stated thos serves them of something. Other essential workers like police, military, civil security and so on use to come to the doors of the main hospitlas sounding their sirens and step to also applaud them.
Those of the health workers who at that time are able to do it, come out to correspond to people in the neighborhood and other workers who have come to applaud them.
May be this is easier in Spain where the health system is mainly public service, but your health workers in the US, forgotten by your adminsitration and under menace of health care moguls do not need less that support.
Remember they are your peers, they are your working class peers in whose hands they are your relatives and friends who will got seriously ill with Covid-19, suffered workers not especially well payed anywhere, but the least in the US.
You want them strong and steedfast, feeling they have the support and appreciation of the society, of course this in case there is something which could be called so still in the US.
Start to form a movement in support of your health workers, invent, make whatever artifact you can imagine to protect them with whatever yo uhave at home ( you usually have large garages in the US, for sure you can find something ) ,and bring them to your nearest hospital or health center, they will appreciate and it will be a boost of energy, otherwise they will break under the hard pressure and abandonement by managers and government. It could be difficult to understand in the UD where our military is always the main hero in your movies and national imaginary, but, believe me, at this fight these are your soldiers.
Remember, these people are also human, some even in the ranges of ages of higuest risk for Covid-19 still working. Nobody can support such overwhelming burden without support.
Some psychological service to attend relatives of the deceased, elder people isolated into their homes, and overwhelmed or anxious health workers, should also be organized.
After all this passes, then take the accounts and pass on the bill to your government, by ousting them from power, or start a revolution to change things so that yo uare able to cop better next time with a more fair system and more capable leaders.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 2 2020 19:51 utc | 60

A postmortem by a competent pathologist is the only way to confirm cause of death.
Americans must not be led like lemmings over the cliff of disease paranoia chased by an invisible bug unless there is irrefutable proof that COVID-19 and ONLY COVID-19 was the principle reason attributed to a person’s demise.
Investigative journalists ( b?) must dig into the facts and interview some of the hundreds of ME’s (medical examiners) who performed autopsies on these people and ask these questions:
1. Did the autopsy reveal the presence of other chronic diseases pulmonary or otherwise, that could have contributed to the death of the person (e.g., influenza, COPD, emphysema, tuberculosis, heart disease, cancers, etc.?
2. Was the deceased taking medication that suppressed the immune system such as for rheumatoid arthritis?
3. Did the autopsy reveal the presence of disease of the respiratory system due to harmful inhalants (smoking tobacco, vaping)?
4. Did the autopsy show the patient had heart or vascular problems and had surgeries to correct them such as stent implants, pace maker or other medical devices?
5. Did the deceased receive chemotherapy treatment for cancer related illness?
Unless every answer to the above questions is an affirmative ‘No”, the public must not believe that only COVID-19 caused the death of these people. This calls into question the number of reported COVID-19 deaths has been deliberately inflated to cause panic in America as well as around the world.
The next question is, for what other purpose are governments doing this?

Posted by: PokeTheTruth | Apr 2 2020 19:52 utc | 61

The reasons include ill discipline, ignorance and incompetence, nutty religiousness and racism.

There are slobs and nerds in any country.
In Russia, after warnings and requests from the authorities to stay at home, some citizens went with their children to the park to fry kebabs!
An amazing degree of frivolity and stupidity was demonstrated also by those who, it would seem, on duty should be the most responsible. Thus, the main infectious disease specialist of the Stavropol Territory, Irina Sannikova, after returning from Spain, went to work, hiding her trip. She led a week at a department at the Stavropol Medical University, where she, being a professor, taught classes for students, held meetings with epidemiologists at hospitals in the region, and consulted patients. According to preliminary estimates, about 1 thousand people were in contact with her. Only after March 17th, when Sannikova showed symptoms of coronavirus, did she admit that she was visiting Spain. Test for coronavirus gave a positive result. Some of those who contacted her also confirmed coronavirus. As soon as Sannikova is discharged from hospital, she will be charged under two articles of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation – “Negligence” and “Concealment of information about circumstances that endanger the life or health of people”. A doctor may face up to 2 years in prison…
I note that this stupid woman is not the only such irresponsible in Russia.
Frivolity, incompetence and irresponsibility are common to all countries.

Posted by: alaff | Apr 2 2020 20:05 utc | 62

@Posted by: hopehely | Apr 2 2020 18:45 utc | 42
France also added today! their dead at elders nursing homes, which they had not added so far, as it did Spain…
These are the reasons of the good numbers by some, apart from the number of ICU beds and nurses and doctors per 100.000 habs. in which Germany takes the lead lathough recommending their neighbors austerity measures which some applied to the health public sector, like in Madrid.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 2 2020 20:07 utc | 63

@alaff 62
Frivolity, incompetence and irresponsibility are common to all countries.
absolutely agree. i would add exceptionalism too.

Posted by: A.L. | Apr 2 2020 20:10 utc | 64

The KN95 mask is a Chinese alternative to the scarce N95 mask, but the FDA refuses to allow it into the country.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/kenbensinger/coronavirus-kn95-masks-us-wont-import-china
Anyone know why KN95 banned?

Posted by: JC | Apr 2 2020 20:17 utc | 65

A.L. @64
I only have heard of one country who’s president claimed that their country was exceptional.

Posted by: arby | Apr 2 2020 20:18 utc | 66

PokeTheTruth | Apr 2 2020 19:52 utc | 61
Can you not see the il-logic in your criteria? Suppose a person has an underlying illness, that will eventually prove fatal. If I shoot that person in the head are we going to say that the cause of death was the underlying illness, or are we going to say it was the bullet to the head?
Many people live with underlying illnesses for years. The criteria that should be used is: why did that person die right now? If what killed them right now is a viral infection, then the fact that the underlying illness would have killed them eventually is meaningless, the cause of death is the viral infection.
I think that some people are adamant that they will not believe there is a deadly virus in our midst. Nothing said to them is going to make them believe this, they will keep changing their reasons for the denial. This is somewhat understandable to a point. Yes our government lies about everything, and yes they take every opportunity to enrich themselves and increase their power. My initial reaction was dismissive, I too thought it was a case of overblown hype, but as the days and weeks passed, and the facts changed, so did my opinion.
The overwhelming evidence is pointing to a serious, deadly virus in our midst, and it is time people start acting appropriately. Even the people who understandably ignored the boy who cried wolf, eventually came to the realization that there was indeed a wolf in their midst.

Posted by: David F | Apr 2 2020 20:19 utc | 67

@arby 66
that was indeed tounge in cheek, however there’s been many, many cases of affluent returning travellers who thinks they are too good (exceptional) to be infected, breaking quarantine or self isolation and ended up infecting many others.

Posted by: A.L. | Apr 2 2020 20:23 utc | 68

Ian Welsh:
Why Western Elites Are So Incompetent And What The Consequences Are

Let’s chalk this up to aristocratic elites. Aristocrats, unlike nobles, are decadent, but don’t stop with that word, understand what it means.
Elites who are not aligned with the actual productive activities of society and are engaged primarily in activities which are contrary to production, are decadent. This was true in Ancien Regime France (and deliberately fostered by Louis XIV as a way of emasculating the nobility.) It is true today of most Western elites: they concentrate on financial numbers, and not on actual production. Even those who are somewhat competent, tend not to be truly productive: see the Waltons, who made their money as distributers–merchants.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 2 2020 20:25 utc | 69

re: “lockdowns” until no new cases/deaths…
… no new cases in Westchester, that is.
in reality, missed the chance for that by almost a month. too late now. And also, the exemptions are enough that such a goal is impossible. For example, passed a construction site on my walk today. (construction is classified as “essential”). Residential duplex by the looks of it. cold but sunny say, good day to be employed. 5 guys shooting the shit. cough cough… back to work. Gotta get the job done. Doubt the contractor gives them health insurance.

Posted by: ptb | Apr 2 2020 20:28 utc | 70

@ 67 david f… i share your view as quoted here – ” The overwhelming evidence is pointing to a serious, deadly virus in our midst, and it is time people start acting appropriately. ”

Posted by: james | Apr 2 2020 20:28 utc | 71

A.L. yes I agree with that.

Posted by: arby | Apr 2 2020 20:28 utc | 72

@JC 65
becoz ‘MURICA
mask standards comparison
they’re pretty much the same.

Posted by: A.L. | Apr 2 2020 20:30 utc | 73

All those people were living a relative good life and could even have long life span without Covid-19, especially people with rheumatoid arthritis who are still young…
Nobody dies of rheumatoide arthritis
People talking like you seem the usual nazi of the motto, “every man for himself” whenever difficulties appear over the horizon….
All those people paid their taxes during all their lives and with the advances of current medicine deserved to live as long as the medical and personal means could allow.
Many of those people fought WWII for you, well, amy be not for you, but really yes for us.
The people whom we ow enjoying wlfare states in Europe, amy e not in the US.
Beware, higuer towers than you have fallen..
What for sure this pandemic will unveil is the meanness in everyone…

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 2 2020 20:30 utc | 74

@Posted by: David F | Apr 2 2020 20:19 utc | 67
Yeah, seems quite ilogic when no other year we could sea piles of diabetic, rheumatoid arthritis and heart codition patients´ corpses piled this way in NYC, nor its major was looking for buying hundred thousands of mortuary bags in a couple of weeks..
https://twitter.com/Plagiste4you/status/1245454281903411200

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 2 2020 20:43 utc | 75

If you go to Trump supporting sites you will notice that they think that Covid 19 is a hoax and that most quarantine measures are not needed. Really stupid idiots and they and their country will suffer mightily because of it. It will become the world epicenter of the outbreak and may well lose its superpower status.

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 2 2020 20:43 utc | 76

Anyone know why KN95 banned?
Posted by: JC | Apr 2 2020 20:17 utc | 65
Are you 5 year old? Trade war is on. The Trump admin is desperate to harm China, even if it harms itself in the process. Let them go to hell and suffer then, if that’s what they want.

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 2 2020 20:48 utc | 77

Additional comments regarding Chinese KN95 and why it’s banned in ‘murica
Getting type approval means paying for certification so a lot of domestic chinese brands won’t bother going for EN or NIOSH as those markets are stitched up by big names like 3M.
Some lesser brands or importers OEM them from China but will pay for certification for US NIOSH for example, they would have their branding on it and probably contractual limitation on market exclusivity, even though they’re probably pumped off the same production line.
and because they’re made by suppliers serving the domestic market in China, they’re about 30% – 40% cheaper than N95
so it begs the question, in times like these why wouldn’t you allow a temporary standards equivalency recognition?
The only motivation I can see beyond red tape is the KN95 masks generally will have Chinese printing on them (brand, model, certification etc) and how would the US narrative go when everyone is wearing Chinese masks on the streets?

Posted by: A.L. | Apr 2 2020 20:49 utc | 78

biggest surprise to me in that article is that american kids charter planes for their holidays… what the actual fuck? such an orgy of excess, the bubble they must live in

Posted by: Tony | Apr 2 2020 21:01 utc | 79

Among the developed nations it is my belief that the US is the least healthy. I think the Italy death figures are skewed as among countries they have the 2nd oldest population. And in normal times it is probably emotionally healthy to have more old and young mixing but in this COVID 19 state it causes more mortality among the old (this is also true in Spain). Combined with the air pollution in northern Italy (made worse in European cities by the belief that CO2 is a pollutant leading to a large increase in diesel vehicles increasing NO pollution and fine particles) made respiratory illness more prevalent.
the customers in Walmart scare me – not that I feel endangered by them but the fact that they look so unhealthy. this COV19 doesn’t seem to me all that deadly if the infected one is healthy. So I expect the US death rates to be higher than most places with adequate nutrition and clean water.

Posted by: gepay | Apr 2 2020 21:02 utc | 80

I’m not sure what the point is supposed to be with that last map. There is no context provided and people (especially bigots) could easily get the wrong idea. b, I’m sure that you are not trying to shift the unwarranted blame from the Chinese to another group here, but it would be helpful if you could provide some commentary to go along with the two similar-looking maps. Thanks.

Posted by: farm ecologist | Apr 2 2020 21:04 utc | 81

You can still order KN95 masks from AliExpress.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 2 2020 21:07 utc | 82

@ DougDiggler | Apr 2 2020 18:36 utc | 39
“I’ve been following this site since 2014 and have a master’s degree, but I need that “miles traveled” graphic explained to me.”
I’m with you; no matter how long I stare at it, it conveys no information to my mind.

Posted by: AntiSpin | Apr 2 2020 21:09 utc | 83

b (Bernard) has blocked my response to David F @67. He also posted an article published in the NEJM regarding asymptomatic patients that was determined to be flawed.
Source: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong# .
What’s up b? Why are you not being more objective regarding the SARS-CoV-2 phenomena?

Posted by: PokeTheTruth | Apr 2 2020 21:14 utc | 84

Here in Northern Calif. we’re doing OK only because city, county, and then state jumped on it fast but sadly we don’t have test here either.

Posted by: jo6pac | Apr 2 2020 21:15 utc | 85

the 2 map at the bottom of b’s post comes from this twitter link which has some additional info, but doesn’t really explain much…
i think there is some type of inference that some states don’t want to suffer any fallout from tourism, but even that is sketchy…
https://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/status/1245680178455609344

Posted by: james | Apr 2 2020 21:16 utc | 86

Have you looked at the Event 201 videos?
Sponsored by the The Gates Foundation, the John Hopkins Center for Global Security, and the World Economic Forum, Event 201 was held October 18, 2019, the SAME DAY that the World Military Games began in Wuhan, China.
Video one (at 17:21) specifically names the Novel Coronavirus as the cause of a global pandemic! (The Event 201 videos predicted 65 million deaths from the pandemic . . . the FactCheck.org website blatantly lies about this, using semantics to say that this was a “model” and “not a prediction”.)
I honestly believe that this entire scenario has been gamed out and planned, with a bioengineered virus as the catalyst. see Is Coronavirus A Bioweapon? Dr. Paul Cottrell
Dr Paul Cottrell Cottrell is quite brilliant, has studied molecular biology at Harvard (yes the interview is long, but it is worthing listening to, especially the first 30 minutes) Cottrell describes the makeup/sequencing of COVID-19, looks at spike protein sequences, confirmed 4 HIV insertions; these insertions come from retroviruses inserted into the coronavirus spike protein, And they facilitate (they were designed to facilitate) reception/infection — very rare to see 4 such insertions in nature — big chunks of HIV inserted into the most important part of the genome — this is not a zoonotic process, it was bioengineered.
The insertions allow the virus to have multiple receptors in the human host. Thousands of nucleotides, pasted into virus in the replicase and spike protein, makes such a translocation virtually impossible in natural world. 10,000 to 1 odds that this was a zoonotic event just for the structure of the virus. This is a SARS virus that has been bioengineered, supercharged.
Was it released by accident? Not likely considering all these other events that just happened to occur all at the same time. Excuse for a financial reset that was already in the process of occurring (repo market/credit market collapse in September) that would likely lead to social unrest . . . better to blame it on the virus rather than the toxic neoliberal finance system and dollar, consider the trade war with China already underway.
Notice all the various plagues that have hit China this year via viral diseases . . . half the pigs in China killed by African swine fever huge numbers of chickens die/killed by H1N5 bird flu
Payback can be a bitch. If China decides this was deliberate (they are making such statements), in what ways might they choose to respond?

Posted by: Perimetr | Apr 2 2020 21:19 utc | 87

My guess about the two images was the graph on the left is based on mobile phone data and shows how many miles people do per day. High mobility is related to fast spread because when you stay home, like with your family , the growth tapers off quickly(after the other people in the family got infected). The match with the map on the right suggests that black people remain more mobile and that this will lead to much faster growth of the epidemic in black communities. Compared to the average.
Maybe a poverty map will show the same correlation. It is to be expected that poor people travel more. Wealthy people retreat to their private estates. Middle class stay at home. Poor people go to work.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Apr 2 2020 21:23 utc | 88

How the US WH administration is throwing balloons out by charging all the burden on to other people but themselves, and if they complain, or ask for help, their are menaced, or fired….be them health workers or military who are at the first line front.
US Navy Relieves Commander of USS Roosevelt – Report
The thing is that Esper highly likely would had not evacuated the sailors if the letter would had not gone public, the man thought first in his crew, and after lack of response, someone made the letter public, most probably not even him, as he was in Guam.
We must say that he risked his career for his men, a noble man, no doubt.
It seems that this administration attracts the worst of mankind and send to waste the best they have…
It could be that this Captain Crozier was seeing the skies were falling anyway and just decided to save a bunch of lives? After all, we know that at times of chaos, there are always people who get stranded in foreign countries and far away wars…
If the US exist as we know it after all this passes, there should be a clamor for this man to be pardoned, by this president, or any other, in case they get with finding him culprit, since after all he was trying ot save US soldiers´ ( citizens´ ) lives. By trying to cut short the spreading of the pandemic in time in the aircraft carrier, he may have saved also the aircraft carrier.
He deserves better than all those criminals of war Trump pardons from time to time.
In fact, what he deserves is a medal…but what to expect from this administration of scoundrels, bullies, and cowards?
This administration is failing its people, those who make up the nation, as have been seen in other countries affected by the pandemic, where they are average workers who keep life rolling, and they will pay the price…

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 2 2020 21:27 utc | 89

Posted by: james | Apr 2 2020 21:16 utc | 86
Thanks, James. Blow’s twitter links to his opinion piece in yesterday’s NYT, which highlights the added vulnerability of African-Americans to COVID-19 due to the relatively high incidence of diabetes and other medical conditions in that population. The side-by-side maps on his twitter hearken to that article’s suggestion that black people may be at an increased risk because they live predominantly in states where elected politicians have responded less vigorously to the current pandemic.

Posted by: farm ecologist | Apr 2 2020 21:37 utc | 90

PokeTheTruth 84 “b (Bernard) has blocked my response to David F @67.”
I would very much like to read your response to me. I would suggest you look at your posting again, make sure you didn’t violate the terms, edit it and try to re-post it, or perhaps just write another similar post.

Posted by: David F | Apr 2 2020 21:40 utc | 91

@PokeTheTruth (61)
Everything that you are saying about COVID-19 deaths could also be said of the deaths attributed to flu. Do we have people complaining about the flu death statistics every year? Do we hear ‘they may have flu but they also had co-morbidities’ or ‘they were mostly old people or people with compromised immune system’ or ‘they may have died WITH the flu that doesn’t mean they died OF the flu’ or any of the other garbage we are seeing wrt COVID-19 deaths? Why is that I wonder?

Posted by: MarkU | Apr 2 2020 21:41 utc | 92

Posted by: james | Apr 2 2020 21:16 utc | 86
My guess was that the first map ‘When the average distance travelled…’ is about lock-down, and the extent to which it is obeyed and when. then compared with the distribution of black population, bearing in mind that the tweet poster is himself black. It’s a reflection on the prospective suffering of blacks, I think, but I could be wrong.

Posted by: Laguerre | Apr 2 2020 21:46 utc | 93

Posted by: MarkU | Apr 2 2020 21:41 utc | 94
There is a vaccine against flu. No vaccine against corona. That makes a huge difference.
We have a bug that spreads like cold, but can give you flumonia.

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 2 2020 21:49 utc | 94

Some more fun news for the deniers…
6 feet enough for social distancing? MIT researcher says droplets carrying coronavirus can travel up to 27 feet
https://tinyurl.com/w8t3hkh
This is what China did to beat coronavirus. Experts say America couldn’t handle it
https://tinyurl.com/roqkwsy
My Note: Damn straight. The whiners on this site can’t even accept the lame “lockdown” we have now.
Navy fires USS Theodore Roosevelt captain days after he pleaded for help for sailors with coronavirus
https://tinyurl.com/tfh76wk
Trump hasn’t ordered any ventilators from GM, despite saying he was using wartime powers to force production – sources
https://tinyurl.com/tvmclet
And one piece of good news – for me, at least:
Treasury backs off requirement that Social Security recipients, others take extra step to get $1,200 checks
https://tinyurl.com/tncd7ll
I said all along all they had to do was mail the checks to Social Security recipients who are *already* getting checks at their banks or in the mail. The IRS didn’t need to have anything to do with it – except as a surveillance measure.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 2 2020 21:50 utc | 95

H.Schmatz @89–
“This administration is failing its people…”
And it has since day 1. As I wrote yesterday, the parent website for this article will have several each day documenting how TrumpCo’s screwing/raping the public deliberately by various means, twisting Congressional intent by implementing rules Congress never envisioned in its legislation is one:
“Trump Labor Department Accused of Quietly ‘Twisting the Law’ to Slash Paid Sick Leave Amid Pandemic: The Trump administration is robbing workers of the paid sick days and paid leave Congress passed into law for them. That is unconscionable….
“‘In the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Trump administration is robbing workers of the paid sick days and paid leave Congress passed into law for them. That is unconscionable,’ DeLauro said in a statement. ‘People across the country are struggling to make ends meet, and essential workers who are still able to work need to know that if they or a loved one falls ill that they can take time off.’
“‘Keeping workers from getting other workers sick is good for employees, employers, and our broader public health,’ said DeLauro. ‘Secretary Scalia needs to immediately rescind this guidance and put workers’ needs first.'”
Before that it was the IRS trying to delay checks to seniors. And so on. So, on top is the Blame everything on China policy and attempted Narrative, while the underlying truth is the war being waged on the citizenry by TrumpCo, which is part of the ongoing Class War.
But to be fair, the Class war predates TrumpCo; ObamaInc, BushCo and ClintonLtd were just as immoral, deceitful and murderous. And the line goes back to Truman.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 2 2020 21:57 utc | 96

@hopehely (96)
You are missing the point entirely, my comment was addressed to PokeTheTruth and can only be read in that context. The question was rhetorical in nature.

Posted by: MarkU | Apr 2 2020 21:57 utc | 97

Case Fatality Rate…
Wishful Thinking vs Occam’s Razor.
Early in the Covid-19 saga there was speculation that the CFR would pan out to be circa 1% when the pandemic ended – assuming that “case” would be defined as anyone and everyone who was infected by the virus no matter how serious or trivial the detriment to the victim’s well-being.
Since no Western/pseudo-Christian country, run by Right-Wing Cranks for Right-Wing Cranks, is testing enough COVID-19-infected suspects to get a meaningful handle on the total number of infected individuals, then the simplest way to guess the number is to assume that the deaths represent 1% of the infected folks.
So until the pandemic winds down and the virologists have told us the true statistics, I’ll assume that the Official death toll is 1% of the Total Infections in every pseudo-Christian country.
i.e. Total Infections = Total Deaths x 100.

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 2 2020 21:58 utc | 98

“The reasons include ill discipline, ignorance and incompetence, nutty religiousness and racism.”
Actually the reason is human nature: No individual human gives a damn about any other human – unless that other human is personally important for reasons of money, power or sex.
The problem with this virus is that younger people are at lower risk – and they don’t give a rat’s ass about elderly people. They forget two things: 1) the virus can hit younger people hard enough to put them on a ventilator – they just have a lower risk of dying from that; and 2) young children (and really anyone) who already have respiratory problems can die from this, too.
If this virus targeted *everyone equally* with a risk of dying, you’d see behavior change fast – and no whining about the economy or the state forcing them to do anything.
I’m an anarchist. I don’t like the state *at all* – let alone an asshat like Trump and his goon squad. But in a rational society – which we don’t have, not even remotely – it wouldn’t need the state to issue stay at home orders. It would be done automatically by everyone, as described in some of A. E. Van Vogt’s sci-fi stories. In *this* pathetic society, not *even* the state can compel everyone to do the rational thing – on the rare occasion when the state does recommend something rational.
All the pathetic “virtue signaling” clowns in these comments who want to convince everyone how much they are for “freedom” by denying the actual virus threat are just proving B’s point. “Nutty religiousness” applies to those who deny the risk and who proclaim that *they of all people* know what the cause of the virus is and how much of a threat it actually is.
Blazing Saddles: “You know…morons…”

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 2 2020 22:01 utc | 99

Jim @52:

Why is moon of alabama, not including the fact the fatality rate for those under 25 without immune compromised system is zero… the majority of the population ie those under 70 may get it, but don’t die from it.

1) Italy said that half of people that die or are severely affected (forgot which) are under 70. France said it was half under 60.
2) Many of those who get the serious form of the disease – and probably ALL of those that require a ventilator – get “lung scarring” (pulmonary fibrosis) which is a permanent condition that impairs the lungs. Most of those afflicted with pulmonary fibrosis die within 5 years.
If these delayed deaths are considered/included, Covid-19’s mortality would be much greater than it seems. And that is across all age groups.
3) People under 25 CAN get the nCov-19 and can die from it. Known deaths: a 16-year old girl in Belgium, a 14-year old boy in Portugal; a 16-year old girl in Iran. There are even more cases of people in their 20’s of course.
!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 2 2020 22:09 utc | 100

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