Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 02, 2020

Why The U.S. Will Drown In Covid-19 Cases

Here are examples for some of the reasons why the U.S. will now experience a gigantic epidemic wave.

The reasons include ill discipline, ignorance and incompetence, nutty religiousness and racism.

March 20 2020 - BBC

US students party on spring break despite coronavirus

Crowds of US university students flocked to Florida for their spring break, defying recommendations from the federal government and Center for Disease Control (CDC) over the coronavirus outbreak.

National health officials are advising against gatherings of 10 or more people.

April 1 2020 - NYT 

44 Texas Students Have Coronavirus After Spring Break Trip

Two weeks ago, amid the coronavirus pandemic, about 70 students from the University of Texas at Austin partied in Mexico on spring break. The students, all in their 20s, flew on a chartered plane to Cabo San Lucas, and some returned on separate commercial flights to Texas.

Now, 44 of them have tested positive for the virus and are self-isolating. More students were monitored and tested on Wednesday, university officials said, after 28 initial positive tests.
Students at the University of Tampa, the University of Wisconsin-Madison and other colleges have tested positive after returning from spring break trips to Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and elsewhere.


January 30 2020 - New England Journal of Medicine

Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany

We are reporting a case of 2019-nCoV infection acquired outside Asia in which transmission appears to have occurred during the incubation period in the index patient.
[I]t is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.

The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak.

April 2 2020

Andisheh Nouraee @andishehnouraee - 0:49 UTC · Apr 2, 2020

A stunning admission of deadly ignorance from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who says he only just learned that asymptomatic people can transmit #Covid19. “[I]ndividuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad, but we didn’t know that until the last 24 hours.” - vid


March 4 2020 - NYT

Shadowy Church Is at Center of Coronavirus Outbreak in South Korea

At meetings of the secretive Shincheonji Church of Jesus, worshipers sit packed together on the floor, forbidden to wear glasses — or face masks. They come to church even when sick, former members say. After services, they split up into groups for Bible study, or to go out into the streets and proselytize.
Now, health officials are zeroing in on the church’s practices as they seek to contain South Korea’s alarming coronavirus outbreak, in which members of Shincheonji, along with their relatives and others who got the virus from them, account for more than half of the confirmed infections.

April 2 2020 - Bloomberg

Florida Follows Others in Allowing Church Amid Stay-Home Order

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a stay-at-home order after weeks of rejecting calls for such a measure. But like other mandates ranging from New York to New Mexico, it ensures that Floridians can still attend religious services.
The order comes after similar steps Tuesday in Texas, another late mover that made an exception for religious worship. Michigan imposed a stay-at-home order with a religious carve-out effective March 24.

Religious gatherings were also exempted from Ohio’s stay-at-home order, issued Sunday by Republican Governor Mike DeWine. Solid Rock, an Ohio megachurch whose Cincinnati location hosted an event for evangelical supporters of President Donald Trump last month, held an in-person service Sunday and said on its website that it would exert a constitutional right to continue meeting.

Other states that allow some exemption for religious services include Delaware, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, according to the Center for American Progress.


Charles M. Blow @CharlesMBlow - 11:51 UTC · Apr 2, 2020
My god, I see a disaster brewing…
#COVID19Pandemic #RacialTimeBomb


Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on April 2, 2020 at 15:49 UTC | Permalink

« previous page | next page »

More virus porn? We haven't had our fill yet? Lmfao. You people are a bunch of idiots

Posted by: Goldhoarder | Apr 3 2020 4:06 utc | 201


Noticed that there are a lot of newcomers who would rather argue than add information to the dialogue that helps predict the outcome of this pandemic and/or propose means to suppress the severity of the COVID-19 in terms of public health and the economic costs of this disease.

Could these trolls be blocked?

Posted by: krollchem | Apr 3 2020 4:28 utc | 202

Posted by: ted01 | Apr 3 2020 1:38 utc | 165

The point is that the asymptomatic carrier of corona virus still sneezes, coughs & has postnasal drip.

Ah, OK, I got it. A person has symptoms if he has high fever, coughs his lungs out and shits bricks.
If he is just sneezing and sniffling and having runny nose that does not count, those are not symptoms.
Well if so, I agree, a person without symptoms can spread the virus for sure.

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 3 2020 4:31 utc | 203

re Jen | Apr 2 2020 22:51 utc | 120
"Brixton happens to be a very poor part of London."
would it be fair to say it has been a few years since you've lived in London, or at least since you've visited Brixton, which like just about every victorian era London suburb has been subjected to extreme gentrification.

The tables drawn from the 2011 census, contained in this article tell a different story. Although Brixton is populated by a big proportion of migrants & descendants of migrants, many are established:

The top occupations listed by people in Brixton Hill are Professional 26.4%, Associate professional and technical 22.7%, Business, media and public service professionals 13.4%, Business and public service associate professionals 11.5%, Administrative and secretarial 10.0%, Managers, directors and senior officials 10.0%, Elementary 9.2%, Elementary administration and service 8.8%, Culture, media and sports 7.7%, Caring, leisure and other service 7.3%.

There are still some council estates there but like Harlem in NY, or Grey Lynn in Auckland, Brixton has become the center of established families many of which are prosperous.

Posted by: A User | Apr 3 2020 4:39 utc | 204

There is no justification to stop all commerce in the U.S. because of the numbers of deaths being reported in New York.

Total number of deaths in the U.S. as of the end of 4/2/2020 is now 6,088.

New York State total deaths - 2,538

Total new deaths across the U.S. are under 100 each day.

Ten of the States total deaths are well under 1,000. The rest of the States are under one hundred each. Yes, I agree the numbers will increase but not by the hundreds every day.

The government is over reacting to this outbreak of COVID-19 and will send the country into an economic depression, without a doubt.

People who are symptomatic must stay home. Those of us who have had no symptoms for more than the upper limit of the incubation period of 24 days should be allowed to return to work.

Posted by: PokeTheTruth | Apr 3 2020 4:41 utc | 205

@Jackrabbit | Apr 2 2020 23:18 utc | 130

99.9% of those who come to moa to deliver bogus statistics are morons or trolls.

Which one are you?

What a disgraceful attack on a serious question. Are you some kind of gatekeeper? You just lost my respect.

The question of excess mortality is central to understanding what is going on. That Covid19 yet to impact Europe’s overall mortality should be debated, not attacked.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 3 2020 5:45 utc | 206

Norwegian @208

Are you only up to comment 208?

Maybe you'll understand when you've read all the comments.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 5:51 utc | 207

this thread is unreadable.

Posted by: occupatio | Apr 3 2020 6:04 utc | 208

April 4th 2020.

"During the commemoration, national flags will fly at half-mast across the country and in all Chinese embassies and consulates abroad, and public recreational activities will be suspended across the country.

At 10:00 a.m. Saturday, Chinese people nationwide will observe three minutes of silence to mourn for the diseased, while air raid sirens and horns of automobiles, trains and ships will wail in grief"

Posted by: JC | Apr 3 2020 6:05 utc | 209

@PokeTheTruth | Apr 3 2020 1:29 utc | 162

I thank you for your valuable contributions, I read them with interest. I fully agree with the need for a proper scientific approach. Instead we are seeing doctors and others being bullied into hyping the numbers.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 3 2020 6:17 utc | 210

@IronForge 194

you know what the west is suffering from? the NIH (not invented here) syndrome.

There are many therapies pioneered in the east for covid19 like HCQ and plasma as you suggested but because we in the east are so obviously backwards and generally lying sacks for shit it can't possibly be true.

and people are dying from this western hubris.

For example, HCQ needs to administered early, it's often too late to use on it's own by the time you're displaying respiratory distress. so what does the west do? only allow it's use in late stage then say it's not effective.

to wit, HCQ was discovered when doctors were looking into why the elderly (high risk) rheumatoid arthritis sufferers weren't catching the bug compared to their peers....

now it's taken on like it was discovered in the west with 90% of references being on the French Raoult trials.

It is encouraging other countries are trying and reporting success. HCQ is cheap and out of patent and could be mass produced with the slightest of governmental nudge.

Posted by: A.L. | Apr 3 2020 6:22 utc | 211

john brewster @200, @202

I've explained it. kyrpton gets it. Maybe when you look at it fresh in the morning, you'll get it.


You spend an average of $100 on groceries each week. That is your 'benchmark' spending to satisfy your expected nutritional needs and taste buds. You track that benchmark because it is useful for things like budgeting.

Last week you spent only $95 but $5 was on baby food. You are quite please as "excess financial strain" has been avoided. Nothing to worry about, right?

But is that $5 is just like any other grocery spend? No. In a few months baby-related grocery spending could be $20-50 per week on formula, diapers, wet wipes, and special laundry detergent - in addition to the $100 per week that you spend as always.

Yikes! Better track that separately and keep a close eye on it. Can you get the generic brand of wet wipes? Can you buy diapers in bulk to save money?

Something happened that changed not just how much you spend but how variable your spend is and how you shop.

See, you can't compare this new type of spending with the previous spending. The $100 a week benchmark still applies to YOUR grocery spending, but not to spending related to the baby.

<> <> <> <> <>

Lets say there are 20 flu strains causing 100,000 deaths a year. That is the mortality expectation for THOSE flu strains.

There is no mortality expectation for an entirely new virus that humans have no resistance to. So it can't be included in any benchmark of prior flu strains or diseases in general. The new virus could cause 2,000 deaths or 200,000 deaths. And whatever the number of deaths that this virus causes, it's entirely UNRELATED to the number of deaths EXPECTED from influenza viruses that have previously affected humans.

<> <> <> <> <> <>

Could the SARS-COV-19 virus be a virus that has been around for years and was thus included in prior years statistics?

NO! It's too contagious and too deadly not to have been noticed if it was infecting humans in prior years. This is clear given that it has overwhelmed healthcare systems in Wuhan, northern Italy, Spain, and New York City.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 6:41 utc | 212

A.L. @213


But I think its more than NIH Syndrome. IMO it's directly related to the contention between the Empire and the upstarts.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 6:45 utc | 213

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 3:39 utc | 196

Oh! You got me: I've used Acar Burak previously, but am now hiding behind acar burak. You're too smart for me. The rest doesn't describe me at all, but shows what kind of a man you are.

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 3:17 utc | 191

It's not a statistic that is relevant to a new virus.

It is relevant to overall mortality including new viruses as well.

off-guardian says "…overall mortality is not increasing…" and euromomo in its Methods page says "Compute all causes weekly observed, expected and excess mortality"

It's something that is relevant to accessing how well you're addressing KNOWN health issues.

It's a benchmark for overall performance. Was the flu shot effective this year? Was the media campaign to get people to take a flu shot effective? Etc.

This is empty talk.

The Off-G article even states:

They track “excess mortality”, meaning the number of officially recorded deaths vs the average death rate.

Yes, off-guardian states that and that's why it "sounds" relevant, contrary to what you keep saying.

One can not compare something NEW to what happened in prior years.

You misrepresent. They do not compare something NEW to what happened in prior years, they compare mortality to mortality.

If 'excess mortality' this year is low, that has no bearing on how serious of threat the new Coronovirus is or on how deadly it is. It is simply bullshit to pretend that it does.

Then it must have replaced many other mortal diseases which is extraordinary.

Either you don't have the capacity to explain what you profess to know after all your meticulous studies or you're just bullshiting with an agenda.

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 3 2020 7:31 utc | 214

More Trump ignorance...

Trump negative for coronavirus again, says wearing masks okay

At his daily White House news briefing, Trump said Americans should wear protective face masks if they wish. “If people want to wear them, they can” he said. Scarves work just as well, he said.

No, they do *not* This dumb-shit can't open his mouth without spewing more misinformation than the New York Times can spew in a month.

"Trump announced that the U.S. military and federal personnel will operate a makeshift hospital set up in the Javits Center convention center in New York to help the city grapple with a flood of patients. The Javits Center operation will treat non-coronavirus patients, freeing up hospitals to care for those with the virus. New York has become the epicenter of the U.S. epidemic with more than 47,000 confirmed cases in the city."

Yeah, but according to our clowns here, 'it's just ordinary flu..."

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 3 2020 7:36 utc | 215

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 6:41 utc | 214

Lets say there are 20 flu strains causing 100,000 deaths a year. That is the mortality expectation for THOSE flu strains.

No, lets not say that, lets show where it talks about "the mortality expectation for THOSE flu strains".

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 3 2020 7:37 utc | 216

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 3 2020 5:45 utc | 208

Thank you Norwegian; refreshing to see normal, reasonable, decent human beings.

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 3 2020 7:41 utc | 217

I could not get into the German item at #168 expressing doubts about lockdown etc. (page not found) and perhaps it has been deleted or censored.

Posted by: Waldorf | Apr 3 2020 7:58 utc | 218

- Trump is a socalled "cheapcheat". One of the things he and his administration don't like is spending money on Joe Sixpack.
- But now the Trump administration has to "eat crow". And that's why it blames Europe and China. Trump HATES - I repeat - HATES to admit that he was wrong.

Posted by: Willy2 | Apr 3 2020 8:00 utc | 219

Or #169. German Express newspaper.

Posted by: Waldorf | Apr 3 2020 8:01 utc | 220

@Waldorf - here's an translation of another German article on the subject. I posted it here and re-post it now. But before posting, some additional info because the virologist, Hendrik Streeck, has been accused of being a Nazi just because he pointed out that, based on his research, some infection paths are wildly overestimated. So here's the background:

Streeck alongside of 20 aides investigates the infection paths in the county of Heinsberg, which was the hot spot in Germany - the first outbreak was here, and it is about two weeks ahead the development in Germany.

The study is requested and paid by Nordrhein-Westfalen, the biggest "state" in Germany. The man behind the request it the mayor of Heinsberg, Mr. Stephan Pusch. When the outbreak occurred end of February, Pusch immediately closed schools and kindergartens; he didn't close shops, and he permitted smaller events and gatherings to proceed. He told his superiors in NRW and Germany to follow and shut down schools and kindergartens - it didn't happen fot two weeks. The curve of infected people in Heinsberg began to flatten one week after the shut down of the schools already. Today, the daily number of people released from the hospitals in Heinsberg exceeds the number of new infected who need to be hospitalized i.e. Heinsberg seems to have peaked with regard to the capacities of the hospitals.

So do you hear me, Richard Steven Hack? If you call Mr. Streeck a Nazi, you also have to call Mr. Pusch a Nazi - just tell me why?!


And here's the article:

Bonn / Hamburg -

The Corona crisis hits the global economy with great violence: In Germany, too, restaurants and companies have to pause for weeks, tourism stands still, nothing works in public life anymore.

The number of advertisements for short-time work has skyrocketed to an unprecedented level, and the number of unemployed is also increasing: The Federal Employment Agency expects an increase of up to 200,000 unemployed in April.

And despite the government's aid measures, one thing is certain: the German economy will not be the same for the foreseeable future once the crisis is over. The existence of many citizens is under threat.

Hardly anyone had questioned these tough government measures, as it is about saving lives. But on Tuesday evening a well-known virologist for the first time openly raised doubts about the need for the shutdown at “Markus Lanz” (ZDF). Did our entrepreneurs have to shut down unnecessarily?

The virologist Hendrik Streeck from the University Hospital Bonn is currently carrying out a unique examination in the district of Heinsberg - the epicenter of the coronavirus. There, the expert collects both the number of infected people and the infection routes in a representative sample. The study is intended to provide answers to questions such as where the greatest sources of danger are. How exactly the virus is transmitted. How high the unreported number of infected people is. The research group around Streeck wants to publish the first results as early as next week.

The virologists had not succeeded in breeding Sars-Cov-2 in initial tests after swabbing various objects in apartments of highly infectious residents, sinks, doorknobs, but also pets such as cats. "For me it looks like the first results that a door handle can only be infectious if someone has coughed in the hand beforehand and then grabs the handle immediately." This suggests that there is no smear infection. Keeping a distance and washing hands is therefore a very effective tool.

However, the risk of infecting someone else while shopping is considered to be low. "We see how the infections took place. That was not in the supermarket or in the restaurant or at the butcher's. That was at the parties at the après ski in Ischgl, in the Berlin club, trumpet ’, at the carnival in Gangelt and at the exuberant football games in Bergamo.

In the current discussion about the “shutdown” and the “exit” strategies, which lead again from a standstill, such reliable facts are important. So that public life doesn't stand still for too long.

“We talk a lot about speculation and model calculations. With these, however, only one factor has to be wrong and the whole thing collapses like a house of cards. “That is why facts are so important to make effective decisions. He was therefore surprised that the Robert Koch Institute, as the highest federal authority for infectious diseases, had not previously carried out such an investigation. He sees such tests as a duty for virologists "to find answers for the citizens."

Did the shutdown come too quickly?

Streeck looks back at the various measures taken by the federal government, which have gradually restricted life: Larger events have been canceled, schools have been closed down to exit restrictions. "But I had already said in advance: We want to wait and see what happens. The virus doesn't obey any politician. ”

Measures that are now decided would only be visible in the statistics in two weeks at the earliest. "You have to give this virus time so that we can see and classify the results of the measures in the long term."

He had never heard of infections in hairdressing salons, said Streeck. But now they are closed. It is the same with supermarkets or the like. “We just don't know that infections have taken place there. I think it's important that we focus on what we really know - and what we don't. ”You have to find the nuances of when exactly an infection occurs. And this must also be the guideline for reducing certain measures.

A very good way to contain the virus effectively: do a lot of tests like South Korea did. "If they tested people positively and found a cluster, then they contained the area there," says Streeck. A nationwide curfew was not necessary there. “In my eyes, this is a very good strategy and also a strategy that is feasible in Germany. Because we have the options. "

The virus is really dangerous for the risk groups, so "when it comes to the hospital, nursing home and old people's home," said the doctor. It is therefore very important to effectively protect particularly vulnerable people, with weekly corona tests for medical and nursing staff, for example. Such pool procedures are already used in transfusion medicine to test blood. So you are not new.

“It is therefore important to develop exactly such ideas. However, many experts are involved in this development, and not just individual ones. ”It is a shame that the government approached the crisis“ rather monothematically ”. Unfortunately, there is no round table with a large number of virologists, in which China is also involved.
Streeck criticizes the lack of objectives in the fight against Corona

"I see what such a curfew does to people," explains the virologist. He himself has friends who wonder if they still have a job after the crisis. "In relation to other epidemics and viruses, I find these restrictions to be very drastic." Before taking such measures, Streeck would have liked to think carefully: "Where do we actually want to go?" He would lack the precise definition of the objective.

“Our limit is the capacity of the hospitals. Not the number of people infected. But we never heard where our guideline was. What is our goal? Are 1000 infections a day too much? Or 100? We have to listen to the intensive care physicians who tell us where their limits are. ”They could best assess which measures are the right ones.
Marcel Fratzscher: "A good health system needs a functioning economy"

Streeck therefore supports the fastest possible discussion about an exit strategy. Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research, explains how great the danger for the economy is at “Lanz”. He speaks of a "catastrophe" with a "rat tail of problems". Small businesses and the self-employed could only last a few weeks despite government aid.

Anyone who receives a salary of 60 or 70 percent in short-time work can hardly stay afloat in the long term. At the same time, the economist feels uncomfortable weighing human lives against the financial damage - as many in the discussion about an exit strategy do. "Because a good health system also needs a functioning economy."

One should not play both sides against each other, but rather find a solution that is acceptable to everyone. After six to eight weeks, the loss caused by the shutdown would become critical. And that must be avoided.

Posted by: mk | Apr 3 2020 8:26 utc | 221

Perimetr @ 87

Thanks for posting this interview. It covers the natural/bioweapon issue, the macroeconomic/financial ramifications and offers some preventive advice, including homeopathics.

I honestly believe that this entire scenario has been gamed out and planned, with a bioengineered virus as the catalyst. see Is Coronavirus A Bioweapon? Dr. Paul Cottrell

Posted by: pogohere | Apr 3 2020 8:28 utc | 222

A User @ 206:

At risk of seeming pedantic, I point out that the article in your second link from which you quote refers to Brixton Hill, not Brixton.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 3 2020 8:44 utc | 223

The world welcomes the arrive of a new type of man..the covid denier..a man who found a sense in its life denying what mostly just see around..but that's what makes him have a place in this world.
I too suffered from this problem..I was skeptic about this virus till middle stupid and confortable western mentality couldn't accept that a far threat could really come will be just like the flu..But then it came here and even skeptic my ass was starting to be hot..In my area there have been 700 dead people in 20 days..last year they were about 60.I realized how much stupid I was before.cheers.

Posted by: LuBa | Apr 3 2020 8:51 utc | 224

james #19

jesus saves !! sure, but I bet he never leaves it with the money lenders in the temple.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 3 2020 9:05 utc | 225

Posted by: arby | Apr 2 2020 20:18 utc | 66
"I only have heard of one country who's president claimed that their country was exceptional."

And the country was so exceptional that one of their presidents even received a Nobel Peace Prize before he really began to start work at the White House.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Apr 3 2020 9:17 utc | 226

Very interesting source of information on mortality trends in Europe.

Why don't some countries share this info inquiring minds would like to know.


Posted by: Tom_LX | Apr 3 2020 9:17 utc | 227

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 2 2020 20:48 utc | 77
"The Trump admin is desperate to harm China, even if it harms itself in the process."
Posted by: A.L. | Apr 2 2020 20:49 utc | 78
"... how would the US narrative go when everyone is wearing Chinese masks on the streets?"

Desperate to harm China? Yes. Harm themselves? NO.
Look, they were offering (double?) cash on the tarmac for that shipment bound for France. It is just that they do not want to be SEEN buying Chinese masks. Get it?

Posted by: kiwiklown | Apr 3 2020 9:32 utc | 228

@101 Richard Steven Hack

People are bound in different ways, over here in the UK we are bound by Magna Carta, though their are those who have forgotten that, or who try to deny it, it binds the Crown (government) to the people in a grand bargain. The government have broken this bargain numerous times, and the people have so far been patient, we seem to be approaching a time when the people reassert their sovereignty over the government, I hope it will be as bloodless as possible.

Posted by: TJ | Apr 3 2020 9:42 utc | 229

Posted by: alaff | Apr 2 2020 20:05 utc | 62
"I note that this stupid woman is not the only such irresponsible in Russia.
Frivolity, incompetence and irresponsibility are common to all countries."

Yes, there are idiots in every country. But some cultures show less frivolity and irresponsibility than others in matters concerning the common good . It is a matter of degree. Just look at Taiwan's, South Korea's, Singapore's conduct by both the leaders, and the citizens.

Here in NZ, the Health Minister apologised today to the Prime Minister for going on a mountain bike riding stint during our 4-week lockdown (now into our 2nd week) during which hiking, tramping, trail-riding is banned (in order not to tax resources in case the hiker is lost or hurt in the wilderness). Not just any Cabinet Member, but the HEALTH Minister. Frivolous? Incompetent? Irresponsible? Or plain vanilla stupid. LOL.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Apr 3 2020 10:20 utc | 230

If you want to see something truly ridiculous, do look at the global health security rankings at And next time you see a league table produced by a western organization, remember this one, as it is very infrequently indeed that they are subject to an empirical test.

Posted by: md | Apr 3 2020 10:29 utc | 231

Usual "flu deaths" numbers are at best mediocre guesstimates, and worse than that, they conflate flu, pneumonia and other severe respiratory illnesses. When you look into it, specific flu deaths are way lower than that.
Then, there's the little fact that right now Coronavirus is the first source of daily deaths on the planet, globally. Thanks to the incompetence of some in US leadership, the covid has basically taken over tuberculosis as the main killer of the moment. This alone is quite a conclusive proof that this is serious shit, not "just the flu".

Besides, having had the flu last year, the real flu isn't a pleasant moment to begin with. It's not just a bloody runny nose. Not to mention that the flu lasts a few days, a serious case of covid (not life-threatening kind, not "let's go to the hospital" kind) will floor you for 10 to 15 days, possibly more, with massive fever, massive fatigue - just like the worst days of flu where you can barely go to the toilets or to the kitchen and go back to bed, but for way way longer.
On a normal year, media and others are already pontificating about the cost for the economy, due to sick people having to stay at home for a few days. The cost of this coronavirus, if let as out of control as the flu usually is, would be far far bigger, considering that a sizable part of the workforce would be incapacitated for half a month.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Apr 3 2020 10:35 utc | 232

"The dogs of demonization bark while
the Health Silk Road caravan passes."

Pepe Escobar has a new article out on the Saker's Blog called "China Rolls Out The Health Silk Road" that summarises well the global soft power game otherwise known as The Great Covid Judo Match.

China aids 89 countries while the EEE (Exceptionally Evil Empire) knows only to sanction weaker nations and of course, to scold China.

Posted by: kiwiklown | Apr 3 2020 10:35 utc | 233

Big Pharma and Big Data making billions
When we are at it and keep canceling elections here and there, why not starting to ask for the right to elect Google CEO?

Posted by: Mina | Apr 3 2020 10:52 utc | 234

Jackrabbit @ 152 says:

The virus is NOT a nothing-burger

no, it's more like a quarter pounder with cheese.

Posted by: john | Apr 3 2020 11:01 utc | 235

kiwiklown @235

Even in these discussion threads at MoA the dogs are barking.

It is difficult for the dogs, steeped in the myth of their own might and exceptionality and kings of their little fenced yards, to watch helpless as the world moves on. So they bark, and convince themselves that it is their barking that drives the caravan onward.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 3 2020 11:07 utc | 236

Posted by: LuBa | Apr 3 2020 8:51 utc | 226

The world welcomes the arrive of a new type of man..the covid denier..a man who found a sense in its life denying what mostly just see around..but that's what makes him have a place in this world.
I too suffered from this problem.

No, only you suffered from this problem and I'm sorry about that, but you don't know about others.

If you're addressing me you're doubly wrong, because I'm not a denier, I just have doubts because of this, this and this, among some others.

Another issue I can't wrap my head around is the probably greater suffering (including health related as well) because of all these lockdowns since this isn't expected to end shortly if at all.

Another one: the situation is so awful, everything must stop, but not really everything, some goods and services should continue to be provided, for some, by unfortunate others.

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 3 2020 11:18 utc | 237

EtTu @ 44

But the funniest irony of it all is that while Iran may have exacerbated CV19 spread due to religious ignorance,

I don't think it was due to religious ignorance as much as just general unawareness of the significance of COVID-19. Christian churches around the world seem to be the problem such as the Christian Open Door in Mulhouse, France, the the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in South Korea where they've at least admitted their errors. For true religious ignorance, you have to look at the evangelical megachurches in the United States, Brazil and Africa (from avoiding paywall which are led by utter morons who are still operating as if nothing has changed.

Meanwhile western MSM have gone quiet about coronavirus in Iran. Perhaps this is because the religious authorities in Iran have cracked the problem when compared with their secular equivalents in the west.

For example, yesterday Iran reported 2875 new cases and 124 new deaths while the UK reported 4244 new cases and 569 new deaths, the US reported 29874 new cases and 968 new deaths and Spain reported 7947 new cases and 961 new deaths.

The source for this info was the worldometer website which is the equivalent in the war on coronavirus to the SOHR website for the civil/proxy/terrorist was in Syria but almost certainly more accurate.

The window of opportunity for the US and its poodles to invade Iran, if it ever indeed existed, has been firmly slammed shut by Iran. Perhaps Pompeo and (Elliott) Abrams will now STFU and concentrate on doing what they can to clear up the mess in the US.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Apr 3 2020 11:22 utc | 238

@179 ak47

Add to that Whitney Webb's latest multi-part series about the similarities of biowarfare simulations prior to outbreaks of deadly pathogens - Dark Winter and Crimson Contagion.

In that very long article she writes:

Upon further investigation, key leaders of both Event 201 and Crimson Contagion, not only have deep and longstanding ties to U.S. Intelligence and the U.S. Department of Defense, they were all previously involved in that same June 2001 exercise, Dark Winter. Some of these same individuals would also play a role in the FBI’s “sabotaged” investigation into the subsequent Anthrax attacks and are now handling major aspects of the U.S. government’s response to the Covid-19 crisis. One of those individuals, Robert Kadlec, was recently put in charge of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) entire Covid-19 response efforts, despite the fact that he was recently and directly responsible for actions that needlessly infected Americans with Covid-19.


Kadlec, a veteran of the George W. Bush administration and a former lobbyist for military intelligence/intelligence contractors, is now leading HHS’ Covid-19 response and led the Trump administration’s 2019 “Crimson Contagion” exercises, which simulated a crippling pandemic influenza outbreak in the U.S. that had first originated in China.

You definitely want such a shady figure in charge of a pandemic response team

Posted by: vato | Apr 3 2020 11:26 utc | 239

S@27: Great except you forgot USA has only 1M+ hospital beds. So ~16M deaths. See

Posted by: Imagine | Apr 3 2020 11:29 utc | 240

Returning to the theme of nutty religiosity and racism in top post. An FYI for those who are not familiar with American culture. Rank and file staff positions at CIA and to a lesser extent in all Intelligence operations are dominated by Mormons. Mormons are of course a homegrown delusional cult. They are as formally racist as the KKK but somehow get a pass in era of political correctness. Mormons are known for a complete inability to be critical or analytical. Instead they are mindlessly obedient. Managers love them. Their practice of polygamy is largely in abeyance, incest and child abuse are thriving. Anyone wonders why Intelligence never warns of anything?

Any in media or government who ever have a critical thought about Mormons soon learn what Hell is.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 3 2020 11:32 utc | 241

Another good map for comparison with those 2 is the map of food deserts in the US, ie places that don't have any sort of grocery store within a mile. Those areas are heavily concentrated in the Southeast US.

Posted by: John | Apr 3 2020 11:35 utc | 242

Deaveraging helps understand how local experience can trigger strong government response , much better than average infection/death count: The US has a population similar to Europe. It has started reacting on a fairly low average death toll so it appears they are reacting relatively soon but if you have one city where there are a lot of infections the urgency is thrust upon you and there will be few who wait longer after that. So NY triggers response for the US, Bergamo for Italy and Wuhan for China. Some countries react sooner. Which is nice.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Apr 3 2020 11:36 utc | 243

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 3 2020 11:18 utc | 239

"Another issue I can't wrap my head around is the probably greater suffering (including health related as well) because of all these lockdowns since this isn't expected to end shortly if at all."

So far as I've seen, and I've been paying close attention to precisely this, almost no one has taken even a moment to think about the human costs of the "cure". Instead, in the most flat-earth brain-dead manner, everyone (including b and almost everyone at MoA) just assumes zero cost for any level of tyranny, and looks only at the alleged return on the most totalitarian measures.

I should probably stress, I'm not talking about "the economy". If this thing really were to bring a radical anti-economization, the way some dreamers hope, that would be a great thing. But I have no faith in that.

I'm just talking about simple human freedom of movement. Anyone who thought "property" was a tyrannical concept, well now they're basically saying that literally all space is the private property of the government, to be moved through only upon the state's rigorous fiat.

So far as I can see, b and almost everyone here want this as a permanent result. Surely no one's stupid enough to think that once "lockdown" is in place, that it will be rolled back except where absolutely economically "necessary".

As for our resident Stalinists cheering on capitalist totalitarianism, they're the lowest, most despicable vermin of all.

Posted by: Russ | Apr 3 2020 11:37 utc | 244

Ghost Ship - 240
I'd say the window of opportunity for invading Iran closed when they saw that the virus could take down a whole carrier. Bombing Iran is fine, but you need a crew for that. If 1/3 of your men are sick and some dying, it kind of makes it more difficult.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Apr 3 2020 11:42 utc | 245

Posted by: Russ | Apr 3 2020 11:37 utc | 244

Thanks for your input.

Actually I was referring to the economy, to people living paycheck to paycheck. Though I'm not so much troubled by the other issue you're talking about at the moment I'm aware of it as well.

I should probably stress, I'm not talking about "the economy". If this thing really were to bring a radical anti-economization, the way some dreamers hope, that would be a great thing. But I have no faith in that.

Neither do I. And I too feel that some dreamers hope that.

As for our resident Stalinists cheering on capitalist totalitarianism, they're the lowest, most despicable vermin of all.

:) They are despicable, for sure.

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 3 2020 12:08 utc | 246

Richard Steven Hack @93

I would, of course, not "love" Stirner, but you, of course, would.

Flavours of "anarchism" render the term meaningless.

A capitalist can call themselves a socialist and really believe that they are a socialist

And a fascist may call themselves an anarchist and really believe that they are an anarchist. And, of course, it turns out that many Stirner "anarchists" are really fascists.

Posted by: ADKC | Apr 3 2020 12:08 utc | 247

Not sure if this has already been linked to here, apologies if it has.

This is an interesting take on masks et al from an IC on the front line in the largest hospital in NY. Well worth watching if you are interested in protecting yourself. Very forthright opinion!

Posted by: JohninMK | Apr 3 2020 12:10 utc | 248

Clueless Joe @ 245

Nah, the imbeciles in Washington are too stupid to understand that as they demonstrated by sacking the captain of an aircraft carrier who wanted to get his men ashore ASAP to maintain as much as possible of the ship's fighting ability. Some American military analysts reckon that operating an aircraft carrier at a high tempo is one of the most difficult tasks carried out by the military and destroying the coherence of the crew will destroy that capability. It would take a crew with many replacement members quite some time to work up to being effective enough to maintain operation at high tempo again.

Posted by: Ghost Ship | Apr 3 2020 12:18 utc | 249

Sorry to say, something major coming up in Ukieland, huge spillover likelihood. Stand by, the dominoes are already toppling.

Posted by: petra | Apr 3 2020 12:19 utc | 250

kiwiklown | Apr 3 2020 9:32 utc | 230 (willingness to harm)

The first people to die from the a-bomb were the Americans down-wind. The boffins expected this.

Is risible to assume "Sam" scruples in the slightest degree when using infernal "weapons"...

In CV affair the first people to die were, it seems clear, also Americans...those odd "fibrosis deaths from "vaping"...inter alia.

Nevertheless, whether released by accident or negligence or deliberate act, whether collected from nature or weapon lab trash, the disease is clearly, unequivocally, being used as a weapon to-day before our eyes.

Comrade Texas said, some may recall, that things go hot in mid April.

And fatboi Pomperz promised (just once to the cameras) that "we have a surprise for the Iranians) and he also said "live exercise...

The first people to die from the bomb were Americans, then Japanese, but the bomb "was for Russia" (Groves)

Similarly the first people to die from this "bomb" were Americans, then Chinese and Iranians, but this bomb "is for Russia" -

Wally went over to see Sparkie the Bookie and laid down 100 "Amerero-bucks" on the bet.

After 7,000 coincidences one starts to suspect agency.

Posted by: Walter | Apr 3 2020 12:59 utc | 251

I read the news today, Oh boy ...

So many chickens coming home to roost, it sounds like thunder.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 3 2020 13:36 utc | 252

Walter @ 252
Good to see you back wally ! Safe bet.

Russ @ 245
Let me explain Russ the lockdown will last till 50% of us have been murdered, the poor’st 50% then there won’t need to be a long eny longer ! They don’t want to do it all in one go, because that would get kind of messy ! 3.5 billion think about it. But hey we’re get used to it.
Me ? I think it’s a ‘bad thing’

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 3 2020 13:52 utc | 253

Correction for my above comment
Won’t need to be a longer lockdown.

Also wally@ 253 not 252

Posted by: Mark2 | Apr 3 2020 13:59 utc | 254

Posted by: pogohere | Apr 3 2020 8:28 utc | 224

I listened to the interview with Paul Cottrell: Is Coronavirus A Bioweapon? and got a totally different take than Perimetr @ 87:

I honestly believe that this entire scenario has been gamed out and planned, with a bioengineered virus as the catalyst.

Three quick points regarding the interview:

1. The youtube title is clickbait by the channel owner. Paul Cottrell does discuss that possibility, but only as a side issue. The main focus of the interview is why he believes the virus almost certainly does not have a natural origin.
2. Cottrell gives a 65% probability that it was released accidently from a P4 lab, most likely the one in Wuhan. In his own mind he gives it a 35% probability that it was released intentionally by either the West or by China for dark reasons that can only be speculated.
3. It's a good interview and was worth watching. Cottrell is articulate and presents a reasonable balanced position. He's smart and knowledgeable of his subject matter, regardless of his motivations for publicizing his ideas.

Posted by: krypton | Apr 3 2020 14:11 utc | 256

Those aren't reasons, they are antidotes. The reason is that the US still uses "freedom" in their marketing and they haven't been hit by a major outbreak in the last 100 years. The reason the Chinese shopping centers are empty is because people are afraid to go out. The US has a panic every few months over one inane thing or another. Very much a case of crying wolf for decades with little actual repercussions. One thing you can say about our propaganda is that it is so good we believe it too.

Posted by: ponderer | Apr 3 2020 14:13 utc | 257

acar burak @216

Well, that's pretty sly push-back for a guy that pretended not know anything about the subject.

Pretended ignorance.
Demanding answers.
Playing with statistics.

Classic trolling.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 14:17 utc | 258

petra | Apr 3 2020 12:19 utc | 252

Please add to the post, what's the story? Texas estimated or said the affair goes hot -

Posted by: Walter | Apr 3 2020 14:26 utc | 259

Russ @246

I agree with returning to normalcy. But the 'door' to normalcy is implementing a 'virus suppression' strategy that is pro-active: early identification and treatment of those with the virus. The technology to implement this has been available for weeks: 15-minute testing and inexpensive early treatment with a set of drugs including hydroxyChloroquine.

The current strategy of 'virus mitigation' is a form of sick-care that allows the virus to spread in the population and treats people as they self-identify as severely afflicted. That just guarantees high profits to Big Pharma. Big Pharma would love to have that continue indefinitely.

As soon as Trump got his bailouts done he was talking about returning people to work. That is the agenda now. 1%-ers are losing money!

We are seeing a big push to excuse how USA/Western governments played this virus to benefit the Empire, Wall Street, and favored corporate interests - and - to get people to accept ongoing deaths as the 'new normal'.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 14:36 utc | 260

@Benjamin #174
Unlike water off a duck's ass, I track the predictions made over the years by the climate panicmongers.
They have uniformly been wrong in literally every single area except 1: the CO2 level. You can add "higher highs" to the list of 1 - but temperatures are actually increasing primarily because the daily lows are higher, not the highest temperatures.
So my views are based on facts and data - whereas the climate panicmongers' view which you apparently hold are based on literally hundreds of failed predictions and assumptions.
These failed predictions include:
1) more natural disasters. No - there are less tornados, hurricanes, droughts, floods, etc etc. The damage done is less as a percentage of GDP or based on fixed dollar values - apparently climate types can't understand inflation.
2) more disease. No. Even with COVID-19 - fewer people as a percentage are dying of disease than ever before.
3) climate refugees. LOL.
4) islands being submerged. Fail - islands are sinking due to groundwater depletion and overpopulation.

I could go on and on, but it is really tiresome.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 14:39 utc | 261

"So far as I can see, b and almost everyone here want this as a permanent result. Surely no one's stupid enough to think that once "lockdown" is in place, that it will be rolled back except where absolutely economically "necessary"."

You are assuming that the state, an institution dominated by the capitalist class and employed to promote what are perceived to be that class's interests, benefits from the "lockdown."
I see no evidence that it does and a great deal that it does not. Among other things the capitalists rely on the wages system to exploit labour. And the 'lockdown' makes this exploitation of labour more difficult. The same is true of obstructions to what you call "freedom of movement": it is of no benefit to the capitalists and their state if people cannot get to work, cannot provide the profitable services involved in public transit, and cannot take part in the buying and selling of commodities.
The idea that capitalists are prepared to sacrifice their system of exploitation in order to control the masses might make sense if there were any evidence that, left to themselves, the masses appeared to be on the verge of revolution. But there is no evidence of this: strikes have never been rarer than they are today, Union membership is at historic low levels, there are almost no socialist or radical political groups or parties. The lockdowns are not preventing any riots or risings, just getting in the way of sporting events and orgies of consumption.
The truth is that the state and the capitalist class-as the nature of the current 'bail out' makes clear- is able to do what it wants without any formidable opposition. It goes to war at will, it imposes sanctions and the public doesn't care, it broke up the Occupy movement in moments, it shoots civilians with impunity, it imprisons millions, it does what it wants. It doesn't need any draconian powers because it dominates the culture. And it understands that its potential opponents can be counted upon to exhaust all their energies and credibility tearing each other apart- for no better reason than the sheer joy of indulging themselves in self destructive struggle.

Posted by: bevin | Apr 3 2020 14:45 utc | 262

@hopehely #2053
This isn't rocket science. People touch their faces 3.6-20 times per hour.
This means virus can go *from* faces to whatever else is touched, just as it can go from other surfaces to faces.
nCOV primarily targets the ACE2 cells in the lungs - which are both bloodstream and air facing because these cells transfer oxygen to the bloodstream.
Someone who is asymptomatic can still have millions of ACE2 infected cells and be emitting tens of millions of virii - they just won't be doing it via phlegm coughed up or nasal droplets from sneezing. There's still plenty of fluid interchange, just less of it. Nose picking, for one thing.
People pick their noses something like 4 times a day...

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 14:46 utc | 263

We're living with the disaster of sending everyone to college and the subsequent managerial state. Most of which don't know their anus from a hole in the ground. The worst aspects of the GI bill and college-rama maybe the destruction of the extended family and the educated female snobbery. Not to forget an endless supply of snotty entitled brats.

We're living the results of Milton Friedman and Ronald Reagan. Debt is, and never will be, an asset. Nor do ideas of any nature come from the board rooms. Gutting our production capability will inevitably make history books on not what to do.

We're living Karl Popper's dream of an open society. His myriad of minions include George Soros, Ludwig Von Mises, Ayn Rand, and Milton Friedman. Does explain the alliance of the Koch bro and Soros. The reality is the current US physical and profession infrastructure was built for 60 million not 360 million+. Good luck to all has supply lines are breaking down to not enough capacity.

We're living the wet dream of every dead and living liberal who had to destroy every tradition, while fully expect that very tradition to be at the ready to finance the liberal hubris. On a related note can't wait til some expert declares pot smoking not good for the lungs, and STDs weaken the immune system. I realize sadly liberalism and narcissism will never be linked. It should be.

Finally a little shout out to Bill Clinton for taxing inventory as income. Its an investment. And I won't forget a mention of the black Jesus, Barack Obama and his healthcare. His people somehow decided it was good to put on punishing taxes on medical device makers. How's that working out?

Posted by: Old and Grumpy | Apr 3 2020 14:50 utc | 264

It seems Italy's nCOV deaths may not even be representative of what's actually happening Italy coronavirus death toll likely higher than reported

“There are many more dead than are officially declared. But this is not a j’accuse. People died and they were never tested because time and resources are limited,” Eugenio Fossati, deputy mayor of Coccaglio, told the paper.

In his town, a nursing home lost over a third of its residents last month — but none of the 24 people who died were tested for the virus.

The same is true of the 38 people who died at another nearby nursing home in Lodi, and many other communities, according to the paper.

In the cities of Bergamo and Brescia — two of the worst hotspots for the outbreak — experts believe the real death toll may be double the official count.

In March, 2,060 deaths were reported in Bergamo and 1,278 in Brescia.

“We know the real number is higher, and we mourn them, knowing full well why they died,” said Fossati. “It’s a hard truth to accept.”

The number of tallied virus carriers — 111,000 — is also limited to people who showed symptoms in the country, the paper reported.

Note the statement that testing is only done on symptomatic. It validates the CCD calculation I have been maintaining.

We'll know over time, from net mortality figures, just what nCOV was really doing - so the likelihood that reporting isn't 100% isn't crucial.
But nursing homes losing 1/3 their residents in a month - that's bad. I think even hospice care has lower rates than that.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 14:50 utc | 265

A nice global view of Wuhan Pollution over years,months,days

Pollution in Wuhan

Posted by: Tom_LX | Apr 3 2020 14:53 utc | 266

"Benjamin Mateus of the WSWS had an opportunity in mid-March, through an intermediary, to communicate with four Chinese physicians who were involved from the beginning in the massive response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan."

Posted by: Atown | Apr 3 2020 14:57 utc | 267

New research looking at possible origins of nCOV. Remember what Rob Wallace has been saying source

There is a growing body of evidence that points to a different origin story for Covid-19. We now know that none of the animals tested at the Wuhan seafood market tested positive and about a third of the initial set of reported cases in people in Wuhan from early December 2019 had no connection to the seafood market, including the first reported case . And we also now know, thanks to the leak of an official Chinese report to the South China Morning Post that the actual first known case of Covid-19 in Hubei was detected in mid-November, weeks before the cluster of cases connected to the Wuhan seafood market were reported.


The scientists conclude that SARS-CoV-2 evolved from natural selection and not genetic engineering in a lab, and they say that this natural selection occurred through two possible scenarios. One is that it evolved into its highly pathogenic form within humans. In this case, a less pathogenic form of the virus would have jumped from an animal to a human host and then would have evolved into its current form through an “extended period” of “undetected human-to-human transmission”. Under this scenario, there is no reason to believe that the Wuhan seafood market had anything to do with the evolution of the disease, even if it is quite possible that an infected person at the market could have transmitted it to others.

The second scenario fits with previous coronavirus outbreaks, in which humans contracted deadly coronaviruses after direct exposure to civets, in the case of SARS, and to camels, in the case of MERS. In this scenario, SARS-CoV-2 would have evolved to its present form in an animal host before transfer to humans. Like many other scientists, the Scripps researchers think that it is most likely that the initial transmission would have occurred from bats to an intermediate animal host, where the virus then evolved to its current form.

The Scripps7 researchers go on to say that the particular genetics of SARS-CoV-2 indicate that “an animal host would probably have to have a high population density (to allow natural selection to proceed efficiently) and an ACE2-encoding gene that is similar to the human ortholog,” which is what the SARS-CoV-2 virus binds to in humans.

So which animals fit this criteria?

Another recently published study identifies the most likely intermediate animal hosts for SARS-CoV-2, based on their presence in Wuhan and their having a human-like ACE2 that enables the binding of SARS-CoV-2. These are the animals the study identified: civets, pigs, pangolins, cats, cows, buffalos, goats, sheep and pigeons.

Many of the animals on this list are industrially farmed in China, even wild animals like civets and pangolins are intensively farmed for their use in Chinese medicines. Suspicions that wild animal farms may have been behind the Covid-19 outbreak have already led the Chinese government to shut down 20,000 wild animal farms across the country9.

But hardly any attention has been given to some other animals on this list, which more clearly meet the “high population density” criteria. Pigs would be one obvious candidate from this list, for several reasons.

For one, pigs and humans have very similar immune systems, making it easy for viruses to cross between the two species, as happened with the Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 199810. Indeed, just three years before the Covid-19 outbreak began, tens of thousands of pigs in four factory farms in Qingyuan county in Guangdong, less than 100 km from the site where the SARS outbreak originated in 2003, died from an outbreak of a new, lethal coronavirus strain (SADS) that turned out to be 98 percent identical to a coronavirus found in horseshoe bats in a nearby cave11 . Luckily transmission to humans did not occur, but subsequent laboratory tests demonstrated that such transmission could have been possible12.

Hubei Province, where Wuhan is located, is one of the top five largest producers of pigs in China. Over the past decade, small pig farms in the province have been replaced by large factory farms and medium-sized contract operations, where hundreds or thousands of genetically-uniform pigs are confined in high density barns. These industrial farms are the ideal breeding grounds for the evolution of new pathogens13.

Note the "wild" animal farms were anything but wild - they were breeding exotics for food - as I've said several times, these farms serve the same demographic and function as organic farming in the US.

Interesting point about swine flu potentially concealing the presence of a developing different disease.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 14:58 utc | 268

Smoking - the smoke, not the nicotine or processing - causes ACE2 increases in lungs due to the mucus response to said smoke source
And of course, nCOV targets ACE2.
Not racial - smoking. Lots of Chinese men smoke cigarettes.
Lots of Westerners smoke pot...

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 15:03 utc | 269

Posted by: bevin | Apr 3 2020 14:45 utc | 264

Yep, that's the main thing that I don't buy, that the US government as constituted today is omniscient, omnipotent, intelligent, coherent, and not only knows what it is doing but will succeed at it, all of which is contrary to the visible state of affairs. Whatever they try to do, they will fuck it up. They are plenty immoral, unethical etc. etc. but that is not enough to win with, the world is full of assholes just as bad ethically and morally and much much better at their jobs.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 3 2020 15:05 utc | 270

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 15:03 utc | 271

Lots of Chinese men smoke cigarettes,
and breath extremely polluted air for years. With age and unset of the Flu Season they drop like flies.

Posted by: Tom_LX | Apr 3 2020 15:08 utc | 272

jackrabbit @ 214

Thank you for taking the time to respond at length. As a heavy user of analogies, I understand that they are never perfect. However, yours just doesn't work.

You spend an average of $100 on groceries each week. That is your 'benchmark' spending to satisfy your expected nutritional needs and taste buds. You track that benchmark because it is useful for things like budgeting.

Last week you spent only $95 but $5 was on baby food. You are quite please as "excess financial strain" has been avoided. Nothing to worry about, right?

But is that $5 is just like any other grocery spend? No. In a few months baby-related grocery spending could be $20-50 per week on formula, diapers, wet wipes, and special laundry detergent - in addition to the $100 per week that you spend as always.

Yikes! Better track that separately and keep a close eye on it. Can you get the generic brand of wet wipes? Can you buy diapers in bulk to save money?

Something happened that changed not just how much you spend but how variable your spend is and how you shop.

See, you can't compare this new type of spending with the previous spending. The $100 a week benchmark still applies to YOUR grocery spending, but not to spending related to the baby.

You confuse your accounting technique with reality. You do not pay for baby goods with baby money. You pay with the same money as for everything else. Money is money, just like death is death. Its that simple.

Lets say there are 20 flu strains causing 100,000 deaths a year. That is the mortality expectation for THOSE flu strains.

There is no mortality expectation for an entirely new virus that humans have no resistance to. So it can't be included in any benchmark of prior flu strains or diseases in general. The new virus could cause 2,000 deaths or 200,000 deaths. And whatever the number of deaths that this virus causes, it's entirely UNRELATED to the number of deaths EXPECTED from influenza viruses that have previously affected humans.

Once again, death is death. Total mortality statistics are for ALL categories.

Let's say that the total deaths for one year in the US are 3 million (which is sorta close to the real stat). If, as the more extreme people claim, covid will cause 1 million people to die, then the total deaths will go up by roughly 33%, because people are still dying of other causes (car accidents, gun violence, cancer, etc.) In my example, one million people are not going to suddenly stop dying from other causes that have zero to do with covid, so total deaths must go up. Yes, there will be some overlap. People who die from covid aren't there to die in car accidents, etc. But there will be measurable "excess mortality".


As soon as I crunch the numbers, I will post an example calculation for excess mortality, based on official statistics from NYC, as a demonstration of excess mortality.

I am trying to keep this polite. I ask you to do the same. You are clearly a smart guy and a formidable debater. Can you allow me to have a POV that I am willing to discuss and modify? So far, I haven't been convinced. It remains a possibility.

However, I must point out the dubious timing of the assault on "excess mortality". This term has been out there since day one. It seems to me that only when that term starting getting traction (because its been long enough for covid to have impacted the stat) that these bogus arguments that covid deaths are incommensurable with other deaths starting being broadcast. As in, first they ignore you, then they fight you,...

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 15:09 utc | 273


Your observations on the newness of this virus make sense, and, for me, help me to feel a bit better about having a large family. If we suppose that we cannot eradicate it any more than we can eradicate common colds, we have to consider it will be with us as it mutates, for some time to come, perhaps as we haven't entirely eradicated tubercolosis, for instance, or cholera, those being instances of disease that lurk in our subconscious on the fringes of our existence. My grandmother died of the latter when my father was six, for instance, and the one childhood memory of her that I had growing up was her wonderful oil pantings of flowers that decorated the walls of our home. I've always felt I knew her through them.

This is a psychological adjustment we are all making, all over the world, to reality. A reality which stretches back to prior generations when indeed mankind's survival depended on having large families - you didn't really know who would be taken; you needed some actual physical help from those you propogated. Family was important.

It's ironic that with all the 'social distancing' it would seem reverse psychology is currently at play. That can't last. Somehow we need to adjust our mindset to accomodate the 'personality' of this virus which is not a person but intrudes upon our social consciousness in ways we haven't seen for generations. And we are amassing data, checking who survives and who doesn't, observing protocols. Some are excessive, but we are learning. And this site is where I learn a lot, even having to sift through a lot of what I'll lovingly call debris. You might say we are now among the ragpickers - those who go to garbage dumps to find what others have cast away. But that's too harsh. This place is not a garbage dump. It is better than that.

Sharpen your literary skills, folk! Make each post something to think about, not just an attack or a defense against attack. We need to help b make this site viable for all; glean those shining efforts; support those teaching essays; assist our survival!

I live in the US. I don't wish to drown in the US. I want to create paintings my grandkids and their children will use to know me.

Posted by: juliania | Apr 3 2020 15:09 utc | 274

pat lang at SST has joins in the craven 'know-nothing' chorus:

The economy must be relieved of our self-inflicted wounds. We must "grasp the nettle" and accept the fact that while we can care for the ill, and seek to protect the old and infirm, their welfare must, to some extent, be sacrificed for the good of the herd of the young and fit.

But we know how to fight this virus without lock-downs and without sacrificing the old and infirm.

The REAL PROBLEM is that our BEST GOV'T MONEY CAN BUY is prioritizing Big Pharma profits over the lives of "the old and infirm."

pat lang also tries to mask the cruelty by raising partisan politics:

In this situation, the Democratic Party seems to see a great chance to "kneecap" Trump and blackmail its opponents into measures for the advance of "progress" that may well lead to violence.

The 'partisan food fight' is a tried-and-true device in the USA's one-party, two flavors political control system for muddying waters and deflecting responsibility.

Is pat lang a moron or a troll/propagandist? In his case, I'd say some of both.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 15:09 utc | 275

Sorry, "tuberculosis", I think.

Posted by: juliania | Apr 3 2020 15:10 utc | 276

Message from France :

First premise: This year, the percentage of influenza patients in relation to the total population is the same as in previous years.

Second premise: In previous years, seasonal influenza had a percentage of certain coronaviruses. This year the percentage is similar.

Third premise: The percentage of deaths among people who are infected is no different from other years.

Fourth premise: The media falsifies the percentage of deaths among those who are infected. The only serious study concerning the real mortality in the country where according to the media there are the most deaths (Italy) is the one carried out by the Italian Ministry of Health. It reveals that it is not 12% but 1.2% of sick patients, which corresponds to the usual mortality of influenza.

Fifth premise: this study reveals that the average age of the deceased is 80 years.

Additional information: The percentage of deaths by Covid19 in the USA is 17.8 per million citizens, which corresponds to the usual percentage of seasonal influenza.

Be careful, don't be an accomplice in the panic they want to create: This is essentially a media attack to disguise the economic meltdown they've created.

Translated with (free version)

Posted by: Luc GUTHRIE | Apr 3 2020 15:13 utc | 277

Posted by: bevin | Apr 3 2020 14:45 utc | 264

You are assuming that the state, an institution dominated by the capitalist class and employed to promote what are perceived to be that class's interests, benefits from the "lockdown."...
The idea that capitalists are prepared to sacrifice their system of exploitation in order to control the masses might make sense if there were any evidence that, left to themselves, the masses appeared to be on the verge of revolution. But there is no evidence of this..

Ever since I started blogging in 2009 I've assumed, based on prior analysis, that the 1% understands that the fossil-fueled economic civilization is tottering and that they need to shore up their power to carry over their dominance through the transition from the extreme-energy age to the impending desert wasteland.

That was a self-evident interpretation of the 2009 bailout, and it's even more obvious now.

As for the masses, obviously there's no hint of any revolutionary potential, but that doesn't solve the ongoing existential problem which confronts the global elites: There are over seven billion people who the capitalists no longer even want to exploit, but who can only comprise what from the elites' point of view is a potentially dangerous waste dump. Just because so far there's only astroturfing and easily co-opted "reform" scams percolating among these wastes doesn't mean there never will arise any real threat.

So they'll keep tightening the screws as long as they can, even if it means business suffers. What does business matter anyway, if today the top executives and shareholders can grab bailout checks. Tomorrow means nothing, as far as that goes.

Shortly they'll be left with no extreme economy, since there's no extreme energy to power it and no ecological grounding for it. All talk of "growth" and "jobs" will be defunct. The 1% plans to have attained such complete physical domination of the populace by then that it won't matter, and they'll be able to simply let everyone starve to death, through more or less active or passive policy, whatever's necessary.

The knee-jerk "lockdown" is on account of something which, objectively, is not something this society would care much about. The cancer pandemic is worse, and few care. The pandemic of heart disease is worse, and few care. The pandemic of deaths and injuries from The Car is worse, and not only do few care, but Car-worship remains a fundamentalism even among self-alleged "environmentalists" and the climate-industrial movement.

All that goes to prove that the top-down constrictions are joining the mass hysteria in an unscientific and irrational way to deploy a prior totalitarian plan.

Posted by: Russ | Apr 3 2020 15:17 utc | 278

Message from France - 2

I forgot to mention:
the percentage of contamination in young people and children is absolutely INFIME, IRRELEVANT.
That is to say almost non-existent.

Posted by: Luc GUTHRIE | Apr 3 2020 15:19 utc | 279

Oh dear, senior moment. My grandmother died of the former - that being tuberculosis, not cholera. It is somewhat ironic to me that my father's lifework was promoting tourism in New Zealand - an industry that may now be the cause of much of that country's exposure to the virus, a problem he could not foresee in those early days he ardently championed the delights of travel to that far away paradise. Travel it has been that has spread the virus far and wide, much as the Spanish flu was spread by armies of invaders, and European diseases spread by colonizing invaders in the historical past. Globalization doesn't seem to be something nature encourages. It's something to consider. Eco-tourism may be a self defeating concept, irrational in its very nature.

It's interesting, though, that the huge movements of populations fleeing war we have been experiencing don't seem to be the cause of virus transmission, while affluent travel does. Survival of the fittest?

Posted by: juliania | Apr 3 2020 15:22 utc | 280

Congressional Budget Office forecasting 7% decline in 2nd quarter in US GDP (that's -28% annualized). source
Clearly even my first pass estimates for the economic damage of lockdowns was extremely optimistic.

There were more than 3.3 million new unemployment claims reported on March 26. The Q2 unemployment rate “is expected to exceed 10 percent during the second quarter, in part reflecting the … claims reported on March 26 and the 6.6 million new claims reported this morning [Thursday, April 2].”

The CBO indicated that new claims filed April 2 were 10 times higher than in any single week from 2007-09, during the financial crisis and recession. And unemployment is likely to exceed 10%


Of course, mortgage delinquencies will explode to near 30%.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 15:28 utc | 281


Thanks for posting Prof. Streek's analysis a second time. The first time you did I copied it down, as being excellent factual data making sense to us ordinary folk. Sorry in the rush of events I didn't (I don't think) thank you at that time. The more we know, the calmer we will feel. And that's important.

Posted by: juliania | Apr 3 2020 15:30 utc | 282

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 14:58 utc | 270

One of the conclusions in this research is that SARS-COV2 likely does not have a natural origin. Does this not contradict what you are saying?

"The finding of 4 unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV, all of which have identity /similarity to amino acid residues in key structural proteins of HIV-1 is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature.

Posted by: krypton | Apr 3 2020 15:32 utc | 283

juliania @276:

If we suppose that we cannot eradicate it any more than we can eradicate common colds ...

Why would we make such a supposition when we have evidence that it can be eradicated?

China virtually eliminated the outbreak.

They implemented lock-downs at first because they initially they had no other means of fighting the spread. But they have adjusted their strategy as the learned more and developed the tools to fight the virus.

Pretend you are the President. You must chose one of these:

  1. No lock-downs + 15-minute testing + inexpensive early treatment for those with the virus


    • Very few serious cases
    • Very little profit for Big Pharma

  2. Some lock-downs + self-isolation everywhere + treatment only for serious cases
  3. Results:

    • Serious cases continue indefinitely
    • Big profits for Big Pharma
    • "China Virus" fingerpointing on TV every night (like "Russia meddled")


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 15:34 utc | 284

@Tom_LX #274
Do you know what the difference is between China/Wuhan levels of pollution and cigarette smoking?
You should look it up.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 15:35 utc | 285

@krypton #285
When a doctor/medical researcher talks about genetics - as opposed to say, a genetics researcher - I assume they're full of shit.
Because doctors, like most people, don't know jack diddly about statistics.
The paper says they found 4 insertions which aren't found in other coronaviruses, but what does that really mean?
1) Do other coronaviruses exhibit the same infectiousness of nCOV? No
2) Are these insertions important to the infectiousness of nCOV? At least 1 of them is, possibly all of them.
3) Are these insertions magical? Unobtainium? Not possible in nature? No

We know nCOV started in bats - there is a 96% match. nCOV is about 32000 nucleotides long, so 96% means 1280 nucleotide difference. 3 nucleotides (or more) can encode an amino acid, so a difference of 1280 nucleotides means as many as 426 different amino acids encoded.

So: we know as many as 426 mutations occurred in order for nCOV to become what it is. Maybe it is only 50, maybe it is 200 - we'll know more in time.

Does 4 mutations - given the delta vs. bat origin, and which literally what make nCOV what it is - really seem unusual to you?

It doesn't, at all, to me.

I'd also be interested to know if these "unique" sequences were in the original bat coronavirus or the pangolin version; the paper doesn't actually say which coronaviruses were surveyed. If they meant the human infectious coronaviruses - that means literally diddly.

Lastly, that paper is old and the HIV conspiracy theory basis. It was totally discredited because the 4 "unique" sequences turned out to be 4 nucleotides in length, each.

The notion that they're unique is utter bullshit. Note that RNA/DNA encode for amino acids - and there is a list of known amino acids. The sequence as well as the actual specific amino acid coded is how genetics works - so the likelihood of any functional genetic organism sharing amino acid nucleotide codings with another genetic organism is extremely high - even for the extremely simplistic viruses.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 15:50 utc | 286

Posted by: Luc GUTHRIE | Apr 3 2020 15:53 utc | 287

@JackRabbit #286
China is still largely under lockdown. Their economy is still hammered.
They're starting to lift a few restrictions, but the majority still remain.
The economic impact of lockdowns in Europe and the US (and ROW) will also impact all those Chinese industries that aren't making ventilators and masks.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 15:53 utc | 288


While I am not a Mormon, I have to take exception to your characterization of the community members of that faith, and I'll extend it to those who also characterize other Christian groups in this manner. I'll even extend it to those who characterize United States citizenry as 'sheepies' or other lemming-related terminology.

What does such universal denunciation serve? I say you are exhibiting your own individual exceptionalism that is just as damaging as that which you are describing, were it true, which it is not. And members of my own church are guilty of the same kinds of general characterizations of others. Is everyone in the United States doomed to drown in the same ignorance that our leaders display? I say no, we are not. Any more than those suffering under poor leadership in the USSR and later in the transitional state Russia found itself to be were doomed to drown in their own calamities.

They didn't. Good leadership brought them out of that swamp of corruption and degradation of the human spirit. They did not drown.

Thank you Russia. You are not perfect, nor is China. But you shine a light on what can be done within national borders, within the borders of any community resolved to look after its own members in a good way and live amicably with its neighbors.

It's just a matter of coalescing around someone with the right ideas moving forward. We can do it.

Posted by: juliania | Apr 3 2020 15:56 utc | 289

jackrabbit @ 214

I promised you a calculation of excess mortality for NYC. Here it is.


An example of excess mortality calculation for NYC

All stats are from:


Page 49 shows that in 2016, total population was ~8.5 million. Total reported deaths was ~54,000. Yearly death rate was 6.4 per thousand.

Dividing 54,000 by 365 gives about 148 deaths per day as a baseline.

Page 14 (Ten Leading Causes of Death, Crude Death Rates per 100,000 Population) has a category named "Influenza and Pneumonia". It is the third leading cause of premature death. The crude mortality rate for that is 23.6 per 100,000.

At a population of 8.5 million, that comes out to 85 x 23.6 = 2006 deaths per year, or 5.5 deaths per day from the flu/pneumonia category.

Just for reference, the first and second causes are heart disease (210 per...) and cancer (158 per...). The top 10 causes of death seem to total about 500 per 100,000. That gives a total number of deaths (for 8.5 M people) of 42,500. So, there are 11,500 deaths by non-top 10 causes.

All these numbers seem consistent and form a firm baseline for mortality in NYC.


All the following data is from NYC, namely COVID-19: Data.

Deaths as of 5 PM, April 2 = 1,562

If you scroll down to "Daily Counts" AND you click on "Deaths" instead of "Cases" or "Hospitalizations", you get a bar chart. The first death is listed on March 11. Then, beginning on March 14, deaths rise to a local maximum of about 150 per day on March 29, there is a blip of about 180 on March 31; but the trend line then goes downward.

They do state the caveat that "Due to delays in reporting, recent data are incomplete." They do not say which data, they do not define "recent".


ANALYSIS of this real data from official sources.

1. Given that the normal death rate of all causes is 148 per day, a covid death rate of ~150 per day would represent an "excess mortality" of 100%. However, I cannot find the total for all causes death stats for the month of March, which is not very surprising.

2. Given the normal flu death rate of ~ 5 per day, covid cases are 30 times as high. It took me an hour to come up with this very clear and relevant statistic.

So, covid is definitely having a measurable impact on total death rate. WhyTF the PTB aren't using the stat I just calculated is beyong me.

But I do have an issue, relating to propaganda.

3. The city certainly can handle the normal death rate is 150 per day without freezer trucks. But they can't handle a grand total of 1500 cases over a 23 day period without the trucks?

Has that neoliberal bum, Cuomo, cut health services so much that they barely have the capacity to handle the normal death rate, with zero surge capacity? He goes on TV crying about the crisis that he helped create. They publicize these Black Plague pictures of freezer trucks while ignoring the fact that the lack of capacity is the result of decades of neoliberal austerity.



If the cases per day stay at 150 or above, there will be significant "excess mortality" for NYC. 150 per day equals the normal total death rate.

Given that yearly rates for all causes are 54,000, covid at 150/day would result in 54,000 excess deaths.

Given a population of 8.5 million, 54,000 deaths represents a total population death rate of 0.64%. That makes it two or three times as bad as a bad flu season.

BOTTOM LINE: Based on current numbers, covid is definitely a serious health problem. However, the numbers are pointing to something closer to a bad flu than the bubonic plague. The freezer truck situation is an indictment of Cuomo.


jackrabbit - interesting results, don't you think? Still objecting to "excess mortality" as bogus? All this calculation has not changed my POV. covid is a severe health problem. It is not the black plague. It's severity is being inflated to hide a massive financial ripoff, the imposition of police state tactics under the guise of public health.

I refuse to be stampeded into rubber stamping corporate and government over-reach by the obvious propaganda campaign.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 16:06 utc | 290

john brewster @292:

"Has that neoliberal bum, Cuomo, cut health services so much that they barely have the capacity to handle the normal death rate, with zero surge capacity? He goes on TV crying about the crisis that he helped create."

Sounds like behavior typical of a sociopath with White House ambitions.

Posted by: corvo | Apr 3 2020 16:12 utc | 291

john brewster @275

... [Your analogy] just doesn't work.... You do not pay for baby goods with baby money.

In my analogy doesn't posit different forms of money. It distinguishes between different uses for money. I'm sorry that you can't see how the analogy works.

Once again, death is death ... there will be measurable "excess mortality".

The simplicity of "death is death" is appealing but very misleading.

Total deaths in a country by year is a blunt measure of ... something amorphous like "social progress", but not very useful for policy makers.

Statistics that policymakers find useful are more focused: how many were murdered each year? how many died in police custody? infant mortality? how many died of a certain disease.

Now, if you were in charge of fighting influenza, you'd lump statistics for seasonal flu together into a useful benchmark. And you'd want answers to questions like: if we increase spending on messages urging people to get flu shots by X dollars, how many more flu shots are given? And how does that affect flu deaths?

I hope this example shows you how a NEW VIRUS is irrelevant to statistics used by healthcare policy makers.

As soon as I crunch the numbers ...

You can knock your head against the wall as much as you like. It won't change the fact a new virus is irrelevant for "excess mortality". You can only say there's an excess if you are comparing like with like. A new virus, by definition, can't be compared with what came before it's existence.

What you're doing is akin to making the case that although a meteor killed 100,000 people that's OK because we had fewer flu deaths this year.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 16:13 utc | 292

@john brewster #292
I would just note that the nCOV deaths so far are likely due to a very low percentage of the population having gotten it.
While I don't believe 60% or higher numbers, especially in 1 year, are the least bit credible - an expansion to 15% absolutely is.
And that is between 8 and 30 times more than present numbers. We're also not done with this "initial cohort" of mortality - NY continues to grow in mortality per 10M. Note that I've been using New York State population in my CCD/DSU - not New York city.
But your basic point is largely valid: 54K deaths isn't the Black Plague.
I would point out, however, that 54K extra deaths in 1 year for New York City is 17 times the 9/11 death toll.
That is definitely going to leave a mark on the economy and society.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 16:15 utc | 293

New York City is 17 times the 9/11 death toll.
That is definitely going to leave a mark on the economy and society.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 3 2020 16:15 utc | 295


Cuomo, now being praised as some sort of hero by DemTards, closed 20 hospitals in the recent past

Posted by: Realist | Apr 3 2020 16:23 utc | 294


Very good point you raise on the 'survival of the fittest' issue at pat lange's site. Being among those he'd consign to be culled from the herd, I would just point out that the elderly have the herd's repository of wisdom, if there can be said to be any such, and that is what makes humanity a somewhat different herd from animal life in general, (though there are wisdoms being passed on there as well.)

When the old regime was dying just before the Communist takeover in Russia, there had been a late flowering of that nation's intelligentsia - and part of that flowering was a rediscovery of the 'old religion' that had been somewhat relegated to obscurity much as an icon gets crudded over by the smoke of innumerable devotedly lighted tapers and lamps. Plato says something like this in The Republic, that this is what happens to truth - there needs to be a scouring, a huge effort to get back to fundamentals, and that's why that dialogue is such a lengthy one central to his philosophy.

Our oldies are the keepers of memory; do away with them and you do away with remembering how it was once and how it can be again. The last thing in that box is hope. You need us, young people, just as we need you.

Posted by: juliania | Apr 3 2020 16:24 utc | 295

RE: krypton | Apr 3 2020 14:11 utc | 258

I agree that, as you say, in the interview Is the Coronavirus a Bioweapon? Dr. Paul Cottrell "The main focus of the interview is why he believes the virus almost certainly does not have a natural origin".

Because Dr. Cottrell provides an understandable explanation of why the virus was bioengineered, I posted it as part of the evidence that I belive substantiates that this was indeed a bioweapon. I wasn't trying to misrepresent what Cottrell said; as you point out, Cottrell beieves there is a 1 in 3 chance that the virus WAS released intentionally. Considering the degree of stupidity and insanity displayed by the neocons and ideologues running the US, I think the odds are much higher.

I would also suggest readers here look at the site. I think the main points made on the site are sound, that the COVID-19 pandemic will overwhelm the US healthcare system just as the number of infected rises into many tens of millions. Since about 20% of these will require hospitalization, most of them will be turned away, resulting in a death toll that will reach 10-30 million by the end of the summer. Social chaos will surely result, exacerbating the situation further.

Posted by: Perimetr | Apr 3 2020 16:27 utc | 296



Thanks for your analysis. It's not easy, almost impossible, for a layperson to separate the wheat from the chaff in understanding this area of research. But the following note regarding that paper suggests your assessment is correct.

This paper has been withdrawn by its authors. They intend to revise it in response to comments received from the research community on their technical approach and their interpretation of the results. If you have any questions, please contact the corresponding author.

Posted by: krypton | Apr 3 2020 16:32 utc | 297

juliana @ 291

While I am not a Mormon, I have to take exception to your characterization of the community members of that faith,

I understand where you are coming from; but its not wise to give the Mormons a free pass. What oldhippie said may be a stereotype; but all stereotypes have some basis in fact.

Mormon caricatures appear constantly in scifi, where they are usually lumped with Scientologists as a cult. But it is a statistical fact that they are over-representation in jobs where loyalty and conservatism is paramount. They are heavily represented in the FBI. They dominate the Harvard Business School, a bastion of conservative economics.

I have had a few Mormons as coworkers. They are polite but aloof. They are sorta tribal. They want to convert you. They obey their leadership to a degree frightening for a democracy. (They have long been racist and sexist.) IMHO, they are creepy and dangerous. They remind me of the Franklin Planner Cult, which is hardly a surprise, since the planner guy is a Mormon. From the article:

Franklin Covey has a more interesting, and perhaps more meaningful, tie to a real-life 19th century prophet: Hyrum W. Smith is a Mormon, his great-great grand-uncle is Joseph P. Smith, founding father of the Church of Latter-Day Saints.

I will disagree with oldhippie on one point:

Mormons are known for a complete inability to be critical or analytical.

No. One of the best anayses of the internet economy came from a Mormon at HBS, Clayton Christensen. His book, The Innovator's Dilemma is widely referenced throughout hitech.

IMHO, the Mormons are like the Japanese: regimented, resourceful, smart, and able to do very well when the rules are clear. So, ignore their proselytizing and colonizing of law enforcement at your peril.

Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 16:34 utc | 298

Posted by: juliania | Apr 3 2020 16:24 utc | 297

Very good point you raise on the 'survival of the fittest' issue at pat lange's site.

Grandpa Pat is 80 years young.
So, the only problem with his statement below IMO that he used the wrong pronoun at the marked place:

The economy must be relieved of our self-inflicted wounds. We must "grasp the nettle" and accept the fact that while we can care for the ill, and seek to protect the old and infirm, ***their*** welfare must, to some extent, be sacrificed for the good of the herd of the young and fit.

It is 'our', not 'their'.
I think he is trolling.
He is smart fart, he knows.

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 3 2020 16:39 utc | 299

john brewster @292:

Still objecting to "excess mortality" as bogus?

You're analysis is flawed.

  • The Covid-19 mortality rates were measured while measures are taken to prevent it's spread. If we lift restrictions, the virus will spread faster - causing more deaths than shown in the stats from NYC.

  • Covid-19 deaths are not a complete measure of harm or deadliness. Many of those afflicted by Covid-19 will have "lung scaring" (pulmonary fibrosis) that contributes to an early death. Most with pulmonary fibrosis die within 5 years.

  • Underlying your analysis is the assumption that Covid-19 is similar to seasonal flu and can be compared to and treated like seasonal flu. This is a false premise. For example: when healthcare systems are overwhelmed by Covid-19 there are knock-on effects that your analysis ignores.

I refuse to be stampeded into rubber stamping corporate and government over-reach by the obvious propaganda campaign.

I AGREE with lifting the lock-downs. But I've argued that the appropriate way to do that is to change how we fight the virus. The technology and tools are available for fighting the virus effectively without lock-downs.

See my comment @286.

IMO those that focus on "excess mortality" are making a case for lifting lock-downs without chaning how we fight the virus. I see that as irresponsible and benefiting Big Pharma.


Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 3 2020 16:39 utc | 300

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