|
Why The U.S. Will Drown In Covid-19 Cases
Here are examples for some of the reasons why the U.S. will now experience a gigantic epidemic wave.
The reasons include ill discipline, ignorance and incompetence, nutty religiousness and racism.
March 20 2020 – BBC
US students party on spring break despite coronavirus
Crowds of US university students flocked to Florida for their spring break, defying recommendations from the federal government and Center for Disease Control (CDC) over the coronavirus outbreak.
National health officials are advising against gatherings of 10 or more people.
April 1 2020 – NYT
44 Texas Students Have Coronavirus After Spring Break Trip
Two weeks ago, amid the coronavirus pandemic, about 70 students from the University of Texas at Austin partied in Mexico on spring break. The students, all in their 20s, flew on a chartered plane to Cabo San Lucas, and some returned on separate commercial flights to Texas.
Now, 44 of them have tested positive for the virus and are self-isolating. More students were monitored and tested on Wednesday, university officials said, after 28 initial positive tests.
…
Students at the University of Tampa, the University of Wisconsin-Madison and other colleges have tested positive after returning from spring break trips to Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and elsewhere.
—
January 30 2020 – New England Journal of Medicine
Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany
We are reporting a case of 2019-nCoV infection acquired outside Asia in which transmission appears to have occurred during the incubation period in the index patient.
…
[I]t is notable that the infection appears to have been transmitted during the incubation period of the index patient, in whom the illness was brief and nonspecific.
The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak.
April 2 2020
Andisheh Nouraee @andishehnouraee – 0:49 UTC · Apr 2, 2020
A stunning admission of deadly ignorance from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who says he only just learned that asymptomatic people can transmit #Covid19. “[I]ndividuals could have been infecting people before they ever felt bad, but we didn’t know that until the last 24 hours.” – vid
—
March 4 2020 – NYT
Shadowy Church Is at Center of Coronavirus Outbreak in South Korea
At meetings of the secretive Shincheonji Church of Jesus, worshipers sit packed together on the floor, forbidden to wear glasses — or face masks. They come to church even when sick, former members say. After services, they split up into groups for Bible study, or to go out into the streets and proselytize.
…
Now, health officials are zeroing in on the church’s practices as they seek to contain South Korea’s alarming coronavirus outbreak, in which members of Shincheonji, along with their relatives and others who got the virus from them, account for more than half of the confirmed infections.
April 2 2020 – Bloomberg
Florida Follows Others in Allowing Church Amid Stay-Home Order
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed a stay-at-home order after weeks of rejecting calls for such a measure. But like other mandates ranging from New York to New Mexico, it ensures that Floridians can still attend religious services.
…
The order comes after similar steps Tuesday in Texas, another late mover that made an exception for religious worship. Michigan imposed a stay-at-home order with a religious carve-out effective March 24.
Religious gatherings were also exempted from Ohio’s stay-at-home order, issued Sunday by Republican Governor Mike DeWine. Solid Rock, an Ohio megachurch whose Cincinnati location hosted an event for evangelical supporters of President Donald Trump last month, held an in-person service Sunday and said on its website that it would exert a constitutional right to continue meeting.
Other states that allow some exemption for religious services include Delaware, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, according to the Center for American Progress.
—
bigger
Charles M. Blow @CharlesMBlow – 11:51 UTC · Apr 2, 2020
My god, I see a disaster brewing…
#COVID19Pandemic #RacialTimeBomb
bigger
—
Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:
@Waldorf – here’s an translation of another German article on the subject. I posted it here and re-post it now. But before posting, some additional info because the virologist, Hendrik Streeck, has been accused of being a Nazi just because he pointed out that, based on his research, some infection paths are wildly overestimated. So here’s the background:
Streeck alongside of 20 aides investigates the infection paths in the county of Heinsberg, which was the hot spot in Germany – the first outbreak was here, and it is about two weeks ahead the development in Germany.
The study is requested and paid by Nordrhein-Westfalen, the biggest “state” in Germany. The man behind the request it the mayor of Heinsberg, Mr. Stephan Pusch. When the outbreak occurred end of February, Pusch immediately closed schools and kindergartens; he didn’t close shops, and he permitted smaller events and gatherings to proceed. He told his superiors in NRW and Germany to follow and shut down schools and kindergartens – it didn’t happen fot two weeks. The curve of infected people in Heinsberg began to flatten one week after the shut down of the schools already. Today, the daily number of people released from the hospitals in Heinsberg exceeds the number of new infected who need to be hospitalized i.e. Heinsberg seems to have peaked with regard to the capacities of the hospitals.
So do you hear me, Richard Steven Hack? If you call Mr. Streeck a Nazi, you also have to call Mr. Pusch a Nazi – just tell me why?!
———-
And here’s the article:
Bonn / Hamburg –
The Corona crisis hits the global economy with great violence: In Germany, too, restaurants and companies have to pause for weeks, tourism stands still, nothing works in public life anymore.
The number of advertisements for short-time work has skyrocketed to an unprecedented level, and the number of unemployed is also increasing: The Federal Employment Agency expects an increase of up to 200,000 unemployed in April.
And despite the government’s aid measures, one thing is certain: the German economy will not be the same for the foreseeable future once the crisis is over. The existence of many citizens is under threat.
Hardly anyone had questioned these tough government measures, as it is about saving lives. But on Tuesday evening a well-known virologist for the first time openly raised doubts about the need for the shutdown at “Markus Lanz” (ZDF). Did our entrepreneurs have to shut down unnecessarily?
The virologist Hendrik Streeck from the University Hospital Bonn is currently carrying out a unique examination in the district of Heinsberg – the epicenter of the coronavirus. There, the expert collects both the number of infected people and the infection routes in a representative sample. The study is intended to provide answers to questions such as where the greatest sources of danger are. How exactly the virus is transmitted. How high the unreported number of infected people is. The research group around Streeck wants to publish the first results as early as next week.
The virologists had not succeeded in breeding Sars-Cov-2 in initial tests after swabbing various objects in apartments of highly infectious residents, sinks, doorknobs, but also pets such as cats. “For me it looks like the first results that a door handle can only be infectious if someone has coughed in the hand beforehand and then grabs the handle immediately.” This suggests that there is no smear infection. Keeping a distance and washing hands is therefore a very effective tool.
However, the risk of infecting someone else while shopping is considered to be low. “We see how the infections took place. That was not in the supermarket or in the restaurant or at the butcher’s. That was at the parties at the après ski in Ischgl, in the Berlin club, trumpet ’, at the carnival in Gangelt and at the exuberant football games in Bergamo.
In the current discussion about the “shutdown” and the “exit” strategies, which lead again from a standstill, such reliable facts are important. So that public life doesn’t stand still for too long.
“We talk a lot about speculation and model calculations. With these, however, only one factor has to be wrong and the whole thing collapses like a house of cards. “That is why facts are so important to make effective decisions. He was therefore surprised that the Robert Koch Institute, as the highest federal authority for infectious diseases, had not previously carried out such an investigation. He sees such tests as a duty for virologists “to find answers for the citizens.”
Did the shutdown come too quickly?
Streeck looks back at the various measures taken by the federal government, which have gradually restricted life: Larger events have been canceled, schools have been closed down to exit restrictions. “But I had already said in advance: We want to wait and see what happens. The virus doesn’t obey any politician. ”
Measures that are now decided would only be visible in the statistics in two weeks at the earliest. “You have to give this virus time so that we can see and classify the results of the measures in the long term.”
He had never heard of infections in hairdressing salons, said Streeck. But now they are closed. It is the same with supermarkets or the like. “We just don’t know that infections have taken place there. I think it’s important that we focus on what we really know – and what we don’t. ”You have to find the nuances of when exactly an infection occurs. And this must also be the guideline for reducing certain measures.
A very good way to contain the virus effectively: do a lot of tests like South Korea did. “If they tested people positively and found a cluster, then they contained the area there,” says Streeck. A nationwide curfew was not necessary there. “In my eyes, this is a very good strategy and also a strategy that is feasible in Germany. Because we have the options. ”
The virus is really dangerous for the risk groups, so “when it comes to the hospital, nursing home and old people’s home,” said the doctor. It is therefore very important to effectively protect particularly vulnerable people, with weekly corona tests for medical and nursing staff, for example. Such pool procedures are already used in transfusion medicine to test blood. So you are not new.
“It is therefore important to develop exactly such ideas. However, many experts are involved in this development, and not just individual ones. ”It is a shame that the government approached the crisis“ rather monothematically ”. Unfortunately, there is no round table with a large number of virologists, in which China is also involved.
Streeck criticizes the lack of objectives in the fight against Corona
“I see what such a curfew does to people,” explains the virologist. He himself has friends who wonder if they still have a job after the crisis. “In relation to other epidemics and viruses, I find these restrictions to be very drastic.” Before taking such measures, Streeck would have liked to think carefully: “Where do we actually want to go?” He would lack the precise definition of the objective.
“Our limit is the capacity of the hospitals. Not the number of people infected. But we never heard where our guideline was. What is our goal? Are 1000 infections a day too much? Or 100? We have to listen to the intensive care physicians who tell us where their limits are. ”They could best assess which measures are the right ones.
Marcel Fratzscher: “A good health system needs a functioning economy”
Streeck therefore supports the fastest possible discussion about an exit strategy. Marcel Fratzscher, President of the German Institute for Economic Research, explains how great the danger for the economy is at “Lanz”. He speaks of a “catastrophe” with a “rat tail of problems”. Small businesses and the self-employed could only last a few weeks despite government aid.
Anyone who receives a salary of 60 or 70 percent in short-time work can hardly stay afloat in the long term. At the same time, the economist feels uncomfortable weighing human lives against the financial damage – as many in the discussion about an exit strategy do. “Because a good health system also needs a functioning economy.”
One should not play both sides against each other, but rather find a solution that is acceptable to everyone. After six to eight weeks, the loss caused by the shutdown would become critical. And that must be avoided.
Posted by: mk | Apr 3 2020 8:26 utc | 221
jackrabbit @ 214
Thank you for taking the time to respond at length. As a heavy user of analogies, I understand that they are never perfect. However, yours just doesn’t work.
Analogy:
You spend an average of $100 on groceries each week. That is your ‘benchmark’ spending to satisfy your expected nutritional needs and taste buds. You track that benchmark because it is useful for things like budgeting.
Last week you spent only $95 but $5 was on baby food. You are quite please as “excess financial strain” has been avoided. Nothing to worry about, right?
But is that $5 is just like any other grocery spend? No. In a few months baby-related grocery spending could be $20-50 per week on formula, diapers, wet wipes, and special laundry detergent – in addition to the $100 per week that you spend as always.
Yikes! Better track that separately and keep a close eye on it. Can you get the generic brand of wet wipes? Can you buy diapers in bulk to save money?
Something happened that changed not just how much you spend but how variable your spend is and how you shop.
See, you can’t compare this new type of spending with the previous spending. The $100 a week benchmark still applies to YOUR grocery spending, but not to spending related to the baby.
You confuse your accounting technique with reality. You do not pay for baby goods with baby money. You pay with the same money as for everything else. Money is money, just like death is death. Its that simple.
Lets say there are 20 flu strains causing 100,000 deaths a year. That is the mortality expectation for THOSE flu strains.
There is no mortality expectation for an entirely new virus that humans have no resistance to. So it can’t be included in any benchmark of prior flu strains or diseases in general. The new virus could cause 2,000 deaths or 200,000 deaths. And whatever the number of deaths that this virus causes, it’s entirely UNRELATED to the number of deaths EXPECTED from influenza viruses that have previously affected humans.
Once again, death is death. Total mortality statistics are for ALL categories.
Let’s say that the total deaths for one year in the US are 3 million (which is sorta close to the real stat). If, as the more extreme people claim, covid will cause 1 million people to die, then the total deaths will go up by roughly 33%, because people are still dying of other causes (car accidents, gun violence, cancer, etc.) In my example, one million people are not going to suddenly stop dying from other causes that have zero to do with covid, so total deaths must go up. Yes, there will be some overlap. People who die from covid aren’t there to die in car accidents, etc. But there will be measurable “excess mortality”.
—-
As soon as I crunch the numbers, I will post an example calculation for excess mortality, based on official statistics from NYC, as a demonstration of excess mortality.
I am trying to keep this polite. I ask you to do the same. You are clearly a smart guy and a formidable debater. Can you allow me to have a POV that I am willing to discuss and modify? So far, I haven’t been convinced. It remains a possibility.
However, I must point out the dubious timing of the assault on “excess mortality”. This term has been out there since day one. It seems to me that only when that term starting getting traction (because its been long enough for covid to have impacted the stat) that these bogus arguments that covid deaths are incommensurable with other deaths starting being broadcast. As in, first they ignore you, then they fight you,…
Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 15:09 utc | 273
jackrabbit @ 214
I promised you a calculation of excess mortality for NYC. Here it is.
——
An example of excess mortality calculation for NYC
All stats are from:
SUMMARY OF VITAL STATISTICS 2016 – THE CITY OF NEW YORK
Page 49 shows that in 2016, total population was ~8.5 million. Total reported deaths was ~54,000. Yearly death rate was 6.4 per thousand.
Dividing 54,000 by 365 gives about 148 deaths per day as a baseline.
Page 14 (Ten Leading Causes of Death, Crude Death Rates per 100,000 Population) has a category named “Influenza and Pneumonia”. It is the third leading cause of premature death. The crude mortality rate for that is 23.6 per 100,000.
At a population of 8.5 million, that comes out to 85 x 23.6 = 2006 deaths per year, or 5.5 deaths per day from the flu/pneumonia category.
Just for reference, the first and second causes are heart disease (210 per…) and cancer (158 per…). The top 10 causes of death seem to total about 500 per 100,000. That gives a total number of deaths (for 8.5 M people) of 42,500. So, there are 11,500 deaths by non-top 10 causes.
All these numbers seem consistent and form a firm baseline for mortality in NYC.
————
All the following data is from NYC, namely COVID-19: Data.
Deaths as of 5 PM, April 2 = 1,562
If you scroll down to “Daily Counts” AND you click on “Deaths” instead of “Cases” or “Hospitalizations”, you get a bar chart. The first death is listed on March 11. Then, beginning on March 14, deaths rise to a local maximum of about 150 per day on March 29, there is a blip of about 180 on March 31; but the trend line then goes downward.
They do state the caveat that “Due to delays in reporting, recent data are incomplete.” They do not say which data, they do not define “recent”.
———–
ANALYSIS of this real data from official sources.
1. Given that the normal death rate of all causes is 148 per day, a covid death rate of ~150 per day would represent an “excess mortality” of 100%. However, I cannot find the total for all causes death stats for the month of March, which is not very surprising.
2. Given the normal flu death rate of ~ 5 per day, covid cases are 30 times as high. It took me an hour to come up with this very clear and relevant statistic.
So, covid is definitely having a measurable impact on total death rate. WhyTF the PTB aren’t using the stat I just calculated is beyong me.
But I do have an issue, relating to propaganda.
3. The city certainly can handle the normal death rate is 150 per day without freezer trucks. But they can’t handle a grand total of 1500 cases over a 23 day period without the trucks?
Has that neoliberal bum, Cuomo, cut health services so much that they barely have the capacity to handle the normal death rate, with zero surge capacity? He goes on TV crying about the crisis that he helped create. They publicize these Black Plague pictures of freezer trucks while ignoring the fact that the lack of capacity is the result of decades of neoliberal austerity.
————-
CONCLUSIONS:
If the cases per day stay at 150 or above, there will be significant “excess mortality” for NYC. 150 per day equals the normal total death rate.
Given that yearly rates for all causes are 54,000, covid at 150/day would result in 54,000 excess deaths.
Given a population of 8.5 million, 54,000 deaths represents a total population death rate of 0.64%. That makes it two or three times as bad as a bad flu season.
BOTTOM LINE: Based on current numbers, covid is definitely a serious health problem. However, the numbers are pointing to something closer to a bad flu than the bubonic plague. The freezer truck situation is an indictment of Cuomo.
—-
jackrabbit – interesting results, don’t you think? Still objecting to “excess mortality” as bogus? All this calculation has not changed my POV. covid is a severe health problem. It is not the black plague. It’s severity is being inflated to hide a massive financial ripoff, the imposition of police state tactics under the guise of public health.
I refuse to be stampeded into rubber stamping corporate and government over-reach by the obvious propaganda campaign.
Posted by: john brewster | Apr 3 2020 16:06 utc | 290
|
