Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 03, 2020

The Science Says #MaskUp - A Look At Two New Virus Studies

There are a few new studies about the novel coronavirus epidemic that are of interest for everyone.

From Science comes a study with new epidemic data that evaluates a smartphone based system that could alarm those who have come near a person which later developed Covid-19 symptoms. Such a system is used in South Korea.

Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing

The new epidemic data in the study is of interest.

It says that the basic reproduction number R0 or R naught for the novel coronavirus is 2.0. Under normal circumstance a new carrier of the virus is likely to infect two other people. This is a higher value than for the seasonal flu but a bit lower than previously thought.

But what makes the novel coronavirus really different is that it starts to spread before the spreading person has developed symptoms.

The virus starts to replicate in significant numbers (billions per mililiter) on day 2 after the infection. The virus first replicates in the upper throat and the infected person starts to spread it to others simply by breathing, talking or coughing. Only on day 5 the infected person starts to develop first symptoms. The virus migrates into the lower lung and replicates there. The virus load in the upper throat will then start to decline. The immune system intervenes and defeats the virus but also causes additional lung damage which can kill people who have already other preexisting conditions. (Interestingly smokers seem not to develop a cytokine storms during a Covid infection and are thereby less prone to end up in the ICU.) On day 10 only few viruses will be found in the upper throat and the person will generally no longer be infectious.

The typical hospitalization point in China was only on day 9 to 12 after the onset of symptoms. At that point a test by swabs is nearly useless as the infected person will normally no longer have significant numbers of the virus in the upper throat. Reports of "defective tests from China" were likely caused by a lack of knowledge about this phenomenon. The diagnosis in these later cases should be done by a CT scan which will show the lung damage.

We do know since late January that people can transmit the virus even when they have not yet developed symptoms. An open question was how many of new infections happen during this phase.

The new Science study investigated how many infections were created by each of four infection phases or types:

  • pre-symptomatic - new infections come from an infected person who has not yet developed symptoms but will do so later
  • symptomatic - new infections come from an infected person who has already developed symptoms
  • environmental - new infections comes from some environmental contact with the virus
  • asymptomatic - new infections come from a person that will never develop any symptoms.

The study says that R0 for pre-symptomatic infections is 0.9 or 46% of all new infections. Infections from a symptomatic persons happen with an R0 of 0.8 which is equal to 40% of all new infections. Environmental infections have an R0 of 0.2 or 10% of all new infections. Infections from asymptomatic cases have an R0 of 0.1 or 4% of all new infections.

More new infections are created during the three pre-symptomatic days the virus carrier runs around then during the symptomatic one.

Washing ones hands helps but environmental infections happen only in 10% of all new infections. The pre-symptomatic carriers are, without knowing it, the biggest spreader of the disease. Millions of the many billions of viruses that get created in their throat can attach to tiny water droplets or aerosols while a person breathes, speaks or coughs.

Such spreading can be prevented when everyone wears a mask. A different new study shows that masks are very effective. Published in Nature the study is titled:

Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks.

The graphic (here cut off for only corona viruses) shows how masks can keep away your droplets from the people you meet and talk to.


bigger

If the carrier of a virus wears a mask the spreading of viruses due to speaking, coughing or even breathing goes basically down to zero.

But a mask does not only protect the carrier of the viruses. While homemade or even professional surgical mask do not protect the wearer from all particles they do protect one much better from them than when one wears no mask at all.

A person rarely gets infected by just one virus particle. They come in millions attached to tiny droplets. We do not know yet how the dose of the novel coronavirus that infects a person affects the intensity of the disease. But we do know from other viruses that the dose matters. People who catch a higher dose of viruses will usually have a more intense disease. A mask can lower the virus load the wearer may receive.

One can improvise a mask from simple household objects. One can sew a mask like a surgeon does in this video. This is my preferred model which is officially recommended by German fire departments. (The pdf is in German but the pictures tell the story). This is the mask I made by following those instructions.


bigger

It is made of a folded sheet cut from a triangular arm-sling out of an old first-aid kit. A HEPA microfilter (as used in vacuum cleaners) is in between the folded sheet. A piece cut from a clean bag for vacuum cleaners will do as well. Do not use a sheet or insert that is too tight to breathe through. If one does that the air will come in from the sides of the mask and the total protection effect will be less. It can be arduous to breathe through such a mask. If you have breathing problems leave the insert out. The sheets alone are already good protection. There is a piece of wire from a big paper clip fixed inside the middle of the upper seam to fit the mask tightly around the upper nose. The lower part goes under the chin. I shaved my beard to make it a tighter fit. As I had no sewing equipment I used a stapler to fix the seams and the ribbons.

The HEPA filter catches particles down to 0.3 micrometer. Viruses are some 125 nanometer in diameter so they are smaller and could slip through. But the viruses are attached to some droplet that are bigger. HEPA filter are essentially labyrinths of small fiber and the viruses would have to bounce multiple times to get through. Finally the dose also matters.

To clean the mask of potential viruses I put it into the oven for 30 minutes at 70C (158F).

The science says that masks work. Everyone should use one. #MaskUp!

---
Here some additional links which might be of interest.

So far, to the frustration of both the White House and the intelligence community, the agencies have been unable to glean more accurate numbers through their collection efforts.

That's because the Chinese numbers are as correct as they can get.

---
Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on April 3, 2020 at 18:24 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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@CarlD 102

I am not a biologoist etc, but I would be concerned that 70C and 100% humidity, would eventually breed certain kinds of bacteria.

maybe 70C but very dry, like a laundry dryer, might be a better?

Posted by: ptb | Apr 4 2020 0:15 utc | 101

SF Bay Area Covid update for 3 April
The last census lists a population of over 7 million people in nine counties and 101 cities.

Alameda county (not including Berkeley)
Positive Cases: 416 +43
Deaths: 12 +3

Berkeley
Cases 27 +4
Deaths Zero

Contra Costa County
Dashboard
307 Cases + 31
Deaths 5 +2
Total tested 4493 +410
Hospitalized 32 +1

San Francisco County
Positive cases 497 +47
Deaths 7 No change

San Mateo County
Dashboard
Positive cases 486 +33
Deaths 13 +3

Santa Clara County
Public health Dashboard
1094 Cases +75
Deaths 38 +2

Sonoma County
Dashboard
Active Cases 79 No change
Hospitalized 19 +4
Recovered 20 +5
Deaths 1
Tests 1920 +5

Solono county
confirmed cases 73 +12
Deaths 1
Active cases 33 +10
total hospitalizations 22 No Change

Marin County
Surveillance
Confirmed cases 131 +13
Deaths 6 No change
persons tested at County site 774
Hospitalizations 16 No change

Santa Cruz County
Dashboard
Total cases 59 +2
Tests 794 Negative
Hospitalized 9
deaths 1

Napa County
Active case 20 +2
Deaths 2 +1

The state is reporting 65% of tests are unprocessed due to lab constraints. The backlog of 59,000 pending tests is growing. Waits are as long as 12 days. More than 90,000 tests have been administered statewide.

Another nursing home was hit with 27 out of 47 patients coming down with the virus. The state has acquired almost 7000 hotel rooms for the homeless. There are 901 patients with the virus statewide in ICU.

38 million N95 masks have been distributed to hospital and medical staff statewide. More than 74,000 people have applied to the state’s program to enlist more health workers.

Posted by: dltravers | Apr 4 2020 0:19 utc | 102

Posted by: Likklemore | 94

It doesn't seem to matter how much the US hoses the EU they'll still fall in lockstep when Trump says "jump".

Russian declaration aimed at stopping sanctions amid coronavirus crisis REJECTED at UN General Assembly

Posted by: Tobi | Apr 4 2020 0:26 utc | 103

None of this is settled science. While scientists point to the possibility of such transmission for all respiratory viruses, none have bothered to quantify this. The presence of viral RNA on a small droplet may not be sufficient to cause infection

This sheds more light

https://www.nap.edu/read/25769/chapter/1

Its also been documented that mask and other protective gear can collect the virus and the virus might go airborne upon the gear being removed

One also should consider hair as virus collector, which then goes airborne in a breeze or during brushing. Of course, no evidence like with droplets from breathing if viral quantity is sufficient to cause infection

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.08.982637v1

People dont seem to understand virus can also infect via your eyes so you need goggles too. While I think masks are a good idea (unless they are being reused or worn for long periods) , thats mainly to keep those with symptoms from releasing too much virus by coughing or sneezing (or spittle when the talk).

Posted by: Pft | Apr 4 2020 0:34 utc | 104

It gets worse: there's now evidence that this virus can be transmitted AFTER symptoms have resolved. See: https://www.atsjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1164/rccm.202003-0524LE

Posted by: Stephen Morrell | Apr 4 2020 0:55 utc | 105

US numbers - confirmed cases and deaths looking good. Venezuela and Iran may be safe for awhile if US is tied up in its domestic corona virus problems.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 4 2020 1:09 utc | 106

Either the virus is mutating, or the previous data was incomplete (or both):

Coronavirus: ‘More and more’ young people experiencing severe disease, WHO warns

Dr. Kerkhove also called everybody to simmer down on the propaganda warfare over the national death rates:

However Dr Van Kerkhove also urged caution in comparing death rates around the world, saying that ”we have some time to go before we can really understand what mortality looks like across different countries”.

Posted by: vk | Apr 4 2020 1:19 utc | 107

I realise few will since amerikans are 100% exceptionalist right up to their last breath but please read the best article by far on masks & respirators cleaning issues esp such ones as 'steam' cleaning are on this link I posted earlier.
It is written by Dr John Campbell who has been writing on this virus for several months. My brother the retired journo recommended him to me in early February, so naturally I have been assiduous in ignoring the bloke for that reason, combined with the fact Campbell is an englander, but he has put together an excellent piece on masks & respirators, one which uses y'know those pesky fact things to support his statements about assorted items efficacy, longevity and ability to be cleaned. With respirators 95% & above he recommends having several and rotating them so that they cop 4-5 days down time which should be enough time for the virus to kark it of its own accord.

I don't believe for a moment that will stop the continual spouting of uninformed claptrap, but I tried.

Posted by: A User | Apr 4 2020 1:22 utc | 108

@ 39 / 42 anon.. thanks for that.. interesting speculation on the connection to the blood... i guess we'll have to wait and see.. someone much earlier mentioned certain blood types seem more predisposed to this then others... none of this has been confirmed as far as i know...

@ 68 jen... thanks for going over the fine points regarding the question on smokers.. cheers..

@ 77 uncle tungsten... thanks for the link.. i am going to read it right now... cheers...

@ 107 dltravers... thanks for these daily updates on the california san fran area changes.. would you like to comment more generally on it all? thanks..

@ 112 peter au... sad, but probably true.. thanks..

Posted by: james | Apr 4 2020 1:29 utc | 109

uncle t... it was a short article!!! in fact john helmer has been covering this ground for a number of years.. it looks like yasha levine just jumped in much more recently.. he is not really adding anything that john helmer hasn't already covered, but yasha might be bringing it to a wider audience which would be good... the national papers will not touch this with a 100 foot pole! anyway.. thanks for this and i do hope more canucks are made aware of it then the odd few which would include me.. cheers..

Posted by: james | Apr 4 2020 1:34 utc | 110

Where is the Smokers reference?

Posted by: Zico the Musketeer | Apr 4 2020 2:17 utc | 111

" The German Robert Koch Institute now even advises against autopsies of test-positive deceased persons because the risk of droplet infection by aerosols is allegedly too high. In many cases, this means that the real cause of death can no longer be determined.

A specialist in pathology comments on this as follows: „Who might think evil of it! Up to now, it has been a matter of course for pathologists to carry out autopsies with appropriate safety precautions even in the case of infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS, hepatitis, tuberculosis, PRION diseases, etc. It is quite remarkable that in a disease that is killing thousands of patients all over the world and bringing the economy of entire countries to a virtual standstill, only very few autopsy findings are available (six patients from China). From the point of view of both the epidemic police and the scientific community, there should be a particularly high level of public interest in autopsy findings. However, the opposite is the case. Are you afraid of finding out the true causes of death of the positively tested deceased? Could it be that the numbers of corona deaths would then melt away like snow in the spring sun?“

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

It's like the Stockholm Syndrome. There's a reason they call it the idiot box.

Posted by: Penelope | Apr 4 2020 2:20 utc | 112

B. If your going to look for science studies about this virus, may I ask you to use your connections to find peer reviewed papers that cite studies which have, in the laboratory, isolated the ncov19 virus from a human, and using an electronic microscope, photographed the virus. I'm betting that you won't find one. You can ask the WHO, the CDC, NIH or any other health organization, but I doubt you will get an answer.

Posted by: joetv | Apr 4 2020 2:43 utc | 113

Can't imagine that paper from vacuum cleaner bags holds up real well when exposed to exhaled moisture.

Now, there are certainly filter "papers" made out of polyester, and those would hold up much better if exposed to moisture. Wet-Dry vacuums and Heating-Ventilation-Air Conditioning filters use such "paper", but it's been folded when made into those filters. One can buy rolls the the polyester filter paper from industrial supply companies, if they're not sold out.

Posted by: Jay | Apr 4 2020 2:53 utc | 114

US numbers - confirmed cases and deaths looking good. Venezuela and Iran may be safe for awhile if US is tied up in its domestic corona virus problems.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 4 2020 1:09 utc | 112

Is this sarcasm? U.S. has 277,000 confirmed and half the States are not testing or hardly, and over 7,000 deaths; only today around 1,321 deaths.

▪︎▪︎▪︎▪︎▪︎

Trump refuses to wear a mask cause he thinks he won't look good in a mask, but President Xi wears a mask and so does the President of Spain, Sanchez, and Macron.

I wonder why the French death rate is so high in the past 2 days: 1120 and 1355?

Another question: What's up with Trump and the National Stockpile? Methinks he might be hoarding for the Red States that vote for him.

And then he demanded 3M stop shipping N95 respirators to Canada and Latin America, and Trudeau fired back about Canadian nurses helping out in Detroit hospitals.

3M stop exporting to Canada

Posted by: Circe | Apr 4 2020 3:06 utc | 115

"What is an unrefereed preprint?": Before formal publication in a scholarly journal, scientific and medical articles are traditionally certified by “peer review.” In this process, the journal’s editors take advice from various experts—called “referees”—who have assessed the paper and may identify weaknesses in its assumptions, methods, and conclusions. Typically a journal will only publish an article once the editors are satisfied that the authors have addressed referees’ concerns and that the data presented support the conclusions drawn in the paper.

Because this process can be lengthy, authors use the medRxiv service to make their manuscripts available as “preprints” before certification by peer review, allowing

other scientists to see, discuss, and comment on the findings immediately. Readers should therefore be aware that articles on medRxiv have not been finalized by authors, might contain errors, and report information that has not yet been accepted or endorsed in any way by the scientific or medical community.

We also urge journalists and other individuals who report on medical research to the general public to consider this when discussing work that appears on medRxiv preprints and emphasize it has yet to be evaluated by the medical community and the information presented may be erroneous.

This is Doctor Jargon used to tell patients "This is a 'Conspiracy Theory' and I won't give you an Rx for it". This is what was said about Dr Raoult's Chloroquine Rx that he had been using successfully for 4 years to treat his MERS and SARS patients and what he has used successfully on his COVID-19 patients. The key is that it must be used as soon as COVID-19 is suspected with or without a + test which take 3-4 days to get back. When you get sick the virus has been in your throat for 5 days. Then it moves into your lower lungs. Before you know you have spread it to 2 other people who don't know they have it and they have spread it to 4 other unknown persons who don't know they have it, wash and repeat. This means there is a long string of "Unknown Unknown Unknowns ...." and you know what that means and it ain't good.

Posted by: William H Warrick MD | Apr 4 2020 3:06 utc | 116

I don't know if the article in Wall Street On Parade linked to below has been posted before on not. The sheer volume of comments at MoA is becoming burdensome and I now check every commenter before reading and skip quite a few.

Unmasking the Truth on Masks to Protect Against Coronavirus: Fire the Surgeon General

When you have a managed form of social organization that values profit over public good, you have the Western governments and global private finance setting human morals.....fairly low, IMO

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 4 2020 3:18 utc | 117

I haven't seen this specifically mentioned so I'll offer it. My local newspaper of all things, published an editorial today calling for more people in our community to "mask up". It included this wonderful phrase that captures the true social dynamic and the logic of the situation:

“I’ll wear a mask to protect you, and you wear a mask to protect me.”

What's nice about this social compact is that it costs almost nothing, is in plentiful, makeshift supply (we're including bandanas and scarves - anything), and surely must do more good than harm, no matter how real or unreal the danger is, nor how prone to mishap or not the wearing of a mask is.

Such a compact surely must be a social good. If only there had been masks in the US - or leadership willing to plunge humble and naked into the realities of the situation and learn from Asia so we could all start making our own masks - then perhaps the US would not have had to do the most stupid thing possible to its lean productive economy, namely, shutting down the entire entrepreneur class of the country and throwing their employees into hazard and poverty.

Given that there was no safety net, and never was going to be despite the talk of the first few days, it could have saved countless deaths from poverty if the people if the US had learned the new social rules, including mask and physical distance etiquette immediately, and kept many of the businesses open instead of driving them to bankruptcy.

So the US is very late to the party, and will pay the price, but now the people who survive must learn how to live in the new normal. Masking-up in public seems the least impactful of all responses.

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 4 2020 3:24 utc | 118

In terms of mask construction, part of the filtration effect is electrostatic capture of drops. Wetting / moisture reduces the efficiency of this mechanism and cotton cloth absorbs water easily and are therefore not very effective. Surgical masks are made of woven polypropylene which does not wet as easily and retains more of the electrostatic filtration effect. Home made masks might be better made with man made fibres rather than cotton.

ALSO 3M sells sheets of Filtrete material which makes a good insert.

Posted by: Ian | Apr 4 2020 3:33 utc | 119

@ Grieved | Apr 4 2020 3:24 utc | 125 about the social piety of wearing masks in public

I just came from reading that Trump is refusing to wear a mask which is as clear a tell as can be that the virus came from the US and Trump has been given the vaccine.

Think about how it plays to Trump's ego. He gets to continue to play impervious mafia don watching others suffer/die to exert perverse world power and control.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 4 2020 3:44 utc | 120

Penelope @ 119

I browsed through the Handbook on the Prevention and Treatment of Covid-19 based on the Wuhan outbreak experience. According to that handbook proper treatment of corpses involves stuffing all corpse body orifices with cotton soaked in chorine solution to prevent viral shed, indicating postmortem contamination is serious problem.

Posted by: susan | Apr 4 2020 3:59 utc | 121

James @115

You want me to comment on what i think about the posted numbers in the SF Bay Area? I am not sure what to think with all the BS floating around. It is available evidence out there as to what is happening. I think our area started to turn down today. We may see a relaxation of the distancing rules next month in this area.
A quick shutdown of the region seemed to work well. We were the first in the US

Posted by: dltravers | Apr 4 2020 4:50 utc | 122

I have found squirting salt water in the nose and mouth helps fight respiratory illnesses. It probably doesn't help the lungs but is surprisingly effective for the throat and sinuses.

Posted by: Edward | Apr 4 2020 5:11 utc | 123

The Greasemonkey script 'Barfly Tools' seems to be broken, perhaps because of Firefox update. Anyone else notice it not working?

Posted by: occupatio | Apr 4 2020 5:35 utc | 124

Studies by citizen journalists. Very funny. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pIMD1enwd4

Posted by: Penelope | Apr 4 2020 5:47 utc | 125


Richard Steven Hack@69

Tomas Pueyo the author of the report you cited endorses this model
for the progression of the pandemic:
https://covidactnow.org/

It appears that the Trump administration is seriously underestimatingthe consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Trump and even the Democratic leaning mainstream media are citing
the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model at the University of Washington
for projected hospital use and the death rates from each mitigation approach.
This model projects that 93,765 US residents will die of COVID19 by August 4, 2020 (death rate of 0.025%).
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

The IHME model is politically acceptable as it pushes public panic into the future.
The model uses a curve fit and disease progression curve from China.
Unfortunately, there is no way the US public would comply with this strict stay-at-home policy.
As such, the upper limit of 2.2 million dead is a underestimate and the ultimate number of deaths may be in the range of 6-8 million.

The Space Coast Research Institute of Economic Reasoning projects that up to 33 million may die.
http://scrier.org/today/

The limiting factor to the number of dead in the US is the percent of the population
who exhibit co-morbidities that correlate with age.
This limits total deaths to about 12 million assuming a 70% infection rate.

Posted by: Krollchem | Apr 4 2020 6:11 utc | 126

Circe 122

Reason for the jump in numbers is French have started adding those that die of the virus in nursing homes. Before it was only those that die of the virus in a hospital.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 4 2020 6:24 utc | 127

So the expert advice that we heard for so long - wash your hands but don't bother with any kind of masking was not very helpful

Posted by: Patrick Armstrong | Apr 4 2020 7:20 utc | 128

Basically,in Turkey I am under "house arrest" and social distance when out, wearing a mask in markets, if not on the nearly empty streets. I wash my hands regularly, and only venture out two or three times a week for food. Of course Istanbul doesn't seem to have problems of mass hoarding and panic, as does the US cities and country. There are stocked shelves in the market, and half the people tend to wear masks outside. Most shopkeepers that are open wear masks and latex gloves. In fact, the only shortage at the markets are cheap latex gloves, however, you can get the better quality more expensive ones at pharmacies. Masks are also fairly plentiful. I haven't been to a hospital, so I can't say if they are overwhelmed. I haven't noticed anything like that on the news.

The US reports on MoA and other sites are hard for me to imagine here: the sheer irrational panic, the shortages of masks, toilet paper?? What the heck is going on there? Is it incompetence or calculation, maybe a little of both.

I worry as well about the calls from some on MoA to block dissenting voices. This even from such long respected members. We still need debate and discussion, and skepticism. This is also why we must worry about some of our governments' large corporate institutions reactions and question them and their motives. Their politco-economic decisions will cost us more in lives and a suppresion of freedoms than anything we do to counteract the virus individually.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Apr 4 2020 7:34 utc | 129

137, I should have added "Their politco-economic decisions will cost us more in lives and a suppresion of freedoms than anything we do to counteract the virus individually or even that the virus can actually do. As far as I know there are not any corona virus vaccines for the six other corona viruses, so we should not assume an effective one will be developed, eventually, we may just have to live with our own developed immunity to the virus and the bacteria that work with it. It may just evolve into a fifth human corona virus.

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Apr 4 2020 7:41 utc | 130

Circe is asking why the figures are so bad in France. My answer:
-doctors in France are on the average BAD, as in REALLY BAD. They are inoculated with odd ideas such as "your diet does not play
a role in your health"; "vitamins are a Big Pharma scam"; "sport does not make a difference, it can even be dangerous
for your health".
-it seems from the stories everywhere in care homes that people with a lower immunity get hit badly
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52147861
and I wonder how French doctors are so unanimously bad that we haven't seen yet a petition to ask the gov to let people go out
and practice some sport (more than 1 hour per day and within 1 km from their home)

They already start to find corpses at home. These people have been told (and are still told on gov media) that only paracetamol
is the cure when they start having symptoms. No mention of vitamin c of vitamin d anywhere.

Only a collectivist answer should be given/should have been given, that includes delivering fruits and vegetables to every household
that include a person at risk or has a low income. This could have been simply organized by city councils but the French gov
made sure these were plugged off.
The current lockdown is a joke that only profits the GAFA, Cambridge analytics and their likes, in collaboration with Macron etc.
What we have now is people working in care homes, supermarkets, hospitals or the police with no equipment (they fine people and tell
them that for their protection they should not get out... but do that without masks for themselves!) who go back home and do spread the
virus. Then the people newly infected directly within their house arrest go out and spread it while touching products in supermarkets
or working in care or at a police station...

At this stage I wonder if they should not rather all go on strike.

Posted by: Mina | Apr 4 2020 7:55 utc | 131

I forgot to add: you can ask anyone who has been to a practice or a hospital (and is able to compare with
examples outside France) about the hygiene there. It is abysmal.
Wearing protective equipments on top of your shoes or hair in certain places is unheard of except in the operating room
and even that is not entirely obeyed (even worse now with phones).
I speak from what I saw and luckily I have not been in hospital often.
In Eastern Europe however, I remember that even a simple visit at a specialist would require you wash your hands with
antibacterial solution and leave your shoes for some paper ones.

Posted by: Mina | Apr 4 2020 8:01 utc | 132

there are scientists who think one thing. others the opposite. some are silenced, others promoted. sir b, why are you hiding this?
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/

Posted by: VenomBag | Apr 4 2020 8:21 utc | 133

Thanks very much b for this super-informative article on how masks protect you :-) :-) :-)

Posted by: deschutes | Apr 4 2020 8:29 utc | 134

The value of the tracking apps is not that you find out in real time that you are near an infected person.
Just like with NSA datagathering the main value is backtracing after you find out someone has been infected so that you can contact those most likely to have been infected as well.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Apr 4 2020 8:40 utc | 135

The info provided by snakebird about women wearing abaya is very interesting. Since the figures in Italy and China
have been around 70% men and 30% women dying from CV/with CV I am curious to know if the figures will be different in
the Gulf or Iran/Iraq.
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/366565/World/Region/Iraq-suspends,-fines-Reuters-news-agency-over-viru.aspx

Posted by: Mina | Apr 4 2020 8:58 utc | 136

It is not yet clear for me how symptomatic and presymptomatic transmission have to mean the transmission is directly through the air from person to person. If you think of all the paths of transmission having dilution-over-time factors then 'environmental' only means not nearby in time and space. and symptomatic means nearby, whether it is through air or intermediate objects. So I would not dismiss hand hygiene in favor of masks right away.

Also WHO emphasizes its concern with bad usage of masks. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks . Their advice is outdated since they ignore presymptomatic transmission but still we should be aware that in realistic conditions masks get used for long periods(a workday) and get reused. The experiments were with clean fresh masks. In Belgium the policy is in line with WHO and it is additionally motivated by concerns that a rush for 'officially approved' masks leads to a shortage for those who need it most. These concerns are valid. So I would be in favour of advice taking the form of 'create yourself a dozen masks'.

Posted by: Tuyzentfloot | Apr 4 2020 10:06 utc | 137

If this model is right (Campbell on a study saying that maybe 50% already caught it)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1aoULlMpn0

it means that when Europe, UK, US were not conducting any tests in January and February, the virus was being transmitted
through their mass transportations, mainly trains, metro, buses, etc, and planes with a peak during the various February
holidays. The toll in care homes is the result of many asymptomatics (workers and families) spreading the virus, which
indeed is particularly lethal to a weak organism (cf. BoJo did not need to take a leave and most politicians who advocate
the use of masks and self-isolation do not apply the rules to themselves).

Posted by: Mina | Apr 4 2020 10:14 utc | 138

Posted by: Krollchem | Apr 4 2020 6:11 utc | 134 The limiting factor to the number of dead in the US is the percent of the population who exhibit co-morbidities that correlate with age. This limits total deaths to about 12 million assuming a 70% infection rate.

You may be right. I'm not an expert in even basic statistics, and I have no idea if any of these models is correct or if even any of their assumptions and datasets they're working with is correct. But it is the reasoning that Pueyo uses that makes sense to me: Bite the bullet now or the bullet bites you, both in terms of lines *and* economic impact.

As I've said before, though, the bottom line is: it's going to be a crapshoot as to who gets it, who doesn't, how many get it, what the overall death percentage will be for any given age group (although it is absolutely clear that people over 60 are the most vulnerable), and what the overall economic impact will be. I found his latest article on the latter interesting, in that if the US bites the bullet, the economy will rebound within a couple years. Of course, as he notes, compared with the 1918 flu, the economy today isn't the same as it was then. So again...a crapshoot...

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 4 2020 10:14 utc | 139

San Francisco County: Positive cases 497 +47 Deaths 7 No change

I'm still not understanding this. Santa Clara and many counties around San Francisco have been hit significantly harder than San Francisco. I realize that we went into lockdown on March 16, when there were very few cases. But the other counties followed very quickly. But it strikes me that something is wrong. Granted San Francisco is actually a "small" county of only eight hundred thousand people. But I'm suspicious of why we've only had 7 deaths, when other counties are reporting considerably more - except for those countries with even smaller populations like Marin. Santa Clara has only 127,000 people and it's getting hammered with cases and deaths at twice the rate of San Francisco.

Contra Costa County health officials on Friday confirmed an outbreak of COVID-19 at a facility that houses seniors. At least 27 people have tested positive. Man, I'd hate to be living there at my age.

My building is full of seniors and immune-compromised drunks and druggies (Tenderloin Housing Clinic property.) I fear the virus will rip through my building and that half the occupants will be on ventilators or dead by late May. A *lot* of these people are *not* following distance guidelines or staying in their rooms like I am.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 4 2020 10:33 utc | 140

"The state has acquired almost 7000 hotel rooms for the homeless."

Heh, that takes care of less than *half* the estimated 17,000 homeless in San Francisco alone. And I damn sure wouldn't want to live in any of those buildings. The one I'm in is bad enough.

As far as I can tell San Francisco has *still* done *nothing* about getting the homeless into some sort of mass temporary housing (with distance provisions) with food and medical and virus testing. This should have been done as soon as the lockdown order was issued almost three weeks ago.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 4 2020 10:39 utc | 141

The original target of the empire's bio attack, China, drops to sixth place in the infection rankings. Meanwhile the Operation Mockingbird mass media spew jingoistic garbage literally claiming that the pandemic is a Chinese plot to take over the world.

Western tools of empire project their evil deeds and intentions onto others. It is sub-sentient and reflexive behavior. They cannot help themselves.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 4 2020 11:25 utc | 142

Some promising good news from Oz labs.

"Coronavirus: Anti-parasitic drug Ivermectin kills COVID-19 in lab within 48 hours"


"An anti-parasitic drug available throughout the world has been found to kill COVID-19 in the lab within 48 hours.

A Monash University-led study has shown a single dose of the drug Ivermectin could stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus growing in cell culture.

“We found that even a single dose could essentially remove all viral RNA (effectively removed all genetic material of the virus) by 48 hours and that even at 24 hours there was a really significant reduction in it,” Monash Biomedicine Discovery Institute’s Dr Kylie Wagstaff said on Friday.

While it’s not known how Ivermectin works on the virus, the drug likely stops the virus dampening the host cells’ ability to clear it.

The next step is for scientists to determine the correct human dosage, to make sure the level used in vitro is safe for humans." ...

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/anti-parasitic-drug-kills-covid-19-in-lab-c-955457

Posted by: imo | Apr 4 2020 11:39 utc | 143

@phychohistorian117. Thanks for the link. I for one knew the fix was in. Don't wear masks they say, they won't help. Then... don't wear masks you don't know how to use them properly... then don't use masks there aren't enough for healthcare.

As I am not to keen on believing impossible things they lost me at "they won't help'.

Its almost like they wanted transmission to snowball, or is that an 'impossible' thing.

Posted by: Tannenhouser | Apr 4 2020 11:53 utc | 144

janet thornhill #142

MoA has sold out
What a crock of shit this is

This story is right on taget> Letter to Trump.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 4 2020 11:58 utc | 145

Mina | Apr 4 2020 7:55 utc | 131

Follow the (lack of) money.
Comparison between Lyon (eye urgency) and Geneva shows that in Lyon the treatment was good to excellent (better than Geneva), while the "hotel service" and infrastructire was dismal. (Plastic covered chairs for senior staff had ripped fabric etc). There has been a serious attempt to eliminate the best part of the public health service by "starving" it of finance necessary for upkeep. (as in the UK)

BUT, the present Covid-war situation could also point to serious attempts at personal gain behind the scenes, by making vaccination the "chosen" method.
Take the Buzyn-Lévy "controversy". Buzyn first put all the chloroquinine on the "only under doctors ordonanace", then seized all the supply. The next we hear is that the King of Morocco bought the entire stock from Sanofi.- Her husband Lévy, born in Morocco, was the person who "defunded" Raoul, and was at Wuhan for the opening of the Biolab (with Cazeneuve no less!), is an expert in Vaccination, HIV and other infectious disease. (Il est directeur scientifique du programme vaccinal de l’ANRS depuis 2006. Il a développé et coordonné plus de vingt essais cliniques nationaux et internationaux d’immunothérapie et de vaccination thérapeutique et prophylactique dans les domaines de l’infection par le VIH, déficits immunitaires et maladies infectieuses. ) Wikipedia

This will all need an independent enquiry if one can be found.
--------
The buying of Masks by the US destined for France, Seizing of others by Germany (and the UK?) imply that the french system isn't putting the money "up front".
--------

Doctors in france - I was lucky that 20 or so years ago I found a rare Doctor "généraliste" that didn't try to "cure" me if I wasn't sick. His replacement is even better but includes more "prevention" if possible, (and puts himself out if a patient is really sick). Also vastly underpaid compared to the Swiss equivalent. He has 2 children and has now been declared as Coronavirus positive. There are SOME good doctors left !

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 4 2020 12:20 utc | 146

@144 imo quotes: "The next step is for scientists to determine the correct human dosage, to make sure the level used in vitro is safe for humans."

That is a crock of sh*t.

The article itself clearly states that this is "An anti-parasitic drug available throughout the world"

The safe dosage of that drug therefore must already be known, otherwise it would never have been made "available" as an "anti-parasitic".

If the level required to kill the virus in those experiments is above that already-known safe dosage then this is a pointless bit of experimentation in some laboratory, as it simply can't be used in humans for that purpose.

Posted by: Yeah, Right | Apr 4 2020 12:26 utc | 147

@janet thornhill | Apr 4 2020 11:00 utc | 142

MoA has sold out
What a crock of shit this is

I have to agree that the lack of critical thinking in this article is not what I expect to see here.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 4 2020 12:32 utc | 148

@uncle tungsten | Apr 4 2020 11:58 utc | 146
@janet thornhill #142

Hmmh, yes, "crock of shit this is", this letter to Trump.
"What we need now is one more brave Edward Snowdon or Chelsea Manning to leak the information.“
Indeed. We need that. Until we have it this is just a piece of stupid propaganda and a tool to get ridiculed.

Posted by: Hausmeister | Apr 4 2020 12:36 utc | 149

@ 148 -- "If the level required to kill the virus in those experiments is above that already-known safe dosage then this is a pointless bit of experimentation in some laboratory, as it simply can't be used in humans for that purpose."

Unlike yourself, obviously, I'm not a medical doctor or clinical researcher in this field. The only comment I would add is; what makes you so certain that recommended dosages for intended purpose of parasitic eradication are set at maximum safe limits for human consumption related to other possible purposes?

For example, within the context of patients with Covid-19 symptoms with a range of co-morbidity conditions and age (the only real high risk categories showing up in the far-from impressive statistics so far), it may be less is safe, or more is safe.

A little deeper thinking on your part might be useful for meaningful discourse. In the meantime, do the locked-down world a favor send in your opinions, and no doubt impressive CV, to the university concerned (one of the best in Australia) and I'm sure they'll be happy to cancel all further research and urgently recall public announcements.

Posted by: imo | Apr 4 2020 12:54 utc | 150

Yeah, Right @148

I was not aware that ivermectin is used in humans. I've only ever heard of it being used in animals. I have a supply because I used it to treat an outbreak of feline scabies in nearby feral cat colonies. The stuff is a silver bullet for practically any parasite on many animals, but I didn't know that included humans. The dosage I used for cats was what is used for pigs per kg. I imagine the same dosage per kg would work on humans. I think I might let someone else try it first, though.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 4 2020 12:56 utc | 151

Stonebird, thanks for the info. I wasn't so lucky in Paris... but sane people don't live in Paris and that includes docs.

Posted by: Mina | Apr 4 2020 13:21 utc | 152

The research paper on Ivermectin.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 4 2020 13:28 utc | 153

Yeah, Right

From what I make of the research paper, there has been no research conducted on higher or repeat dosages other than what was required for single dose parasite treatment.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 4 2020 13:36 utc | 154

Unless we're in moonsuits, we won't be completely protected, but this is a good thing. Our goal is herd immunity. This means everybody has antibodies. You don't get antibodies unless your body encounters the virus. So you want to get familiar with the virus very gradually in a series of minuscule inoculations. Chris Martensen (my pandemic guru) talks about the size of the inoculation. A naive immune system has to be slowly introduced to reality. The new reality today is the covid19 virus in the world. We will all be infected. The mask allows us to limit the exposure to an inocculum that the body can cope with as it gradually develops full immunity. Too much too soon, you're dead!

Posted by: jadan | Apr 4 2020 13:48 utc | 155

Richard Steven Hack @ 141

That is just the State. In SF the hotel industry offered 8,000 rooms since they are not being used. As of a few weeks ago SF leased 60 and was using 30 for the homeless. Not sure what the numbers are now but it is probably so silly they will never publish them again.

Posted by: dltravers | Apr 4 2020 13:49 utc | 156

Worldometers corona virus page now has the testing statistics for each country.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 4 2020 13:51 utc | 157

@VenomBag (133)

"there are scientists who think one thing. others the opposite. some are silenced, others promoted. sir b, why are you hiding this?"

Perhaps it is because we are dealing with corporate shills on the 'sceptic' side? I note that many of these 'scientists' are being promoted on the corporate funded climate 'sceptic' fraudster sites. I also note that they are using the same style of half truths and water muddying that the climate 'sceptics' use.

Perhaps you could ask yourself whether it is really plausible that practically every government in the world is in on a great big conspiracy? The Chinese, Russians, Iranians, Cubans, Venezuelans are all in on the conspiracy? Are you fucking mad? More likely you are the sort of fool that never uses their critical faculties when they are being told what they want to hear. FYI you can find scientists on just about any side of any debate, so whatever you believe, there is always some paid shill, crank or bullheaded holdout that will tell you whatever you want to believe.

Does that answer your question?

Posted by: MarkU | Apr 4 2020 13:57 utc | 158

I am pretty sure i have it. Sore throat, migrated to the lungs, some digestive issues, some headaches, no real trouble breathing yet. On day 14 now from when i first noticed the sore throat. In quarantine. I’m in my 40’s and relatively healthy. Just hoping it doesn’t get worse. Treating w lots of vitamin C and eating healthy to stay alkaline.

I agree 100% that masks will slow the transmission. However, i don’t think we ever beat this. Even with a vaccine, the virus can mutate. It is with us now forever, just like the common cold.

We need to start thinking about life post-panic. Sooner or later there is going to be a sufficient population that has been through it and developed anti-bodies. My understanding of the science is that they can no longer spread it. Do they still need to wear masks? Can they go back to work? Can they resume social activities? Society needs to resume eventually.

Posted by: Joe | Apr 4 2020 14:13 utc | 159

It seems likely that this virus will soon evolve into a more harmless form especially in places like the US where it is not being suppressed very effectively.

What is happening is the less sick you are the more you are allowed to spread the virus. This suggest a natural selection process where the mutations that are less deadly will flourish and reproduce and the more deadly forms not so much. Over time the benign forms will dominate and the more deadly forms die out.

How long the process of domesticating the virus will take is unknown, but when it does eventually happen there will be those who will say "see we told you it was all a hoax"

Posted by: jinn | Apr 4 2020 14:15 utc | 160

another US national, and, state-by-state collection of test, hospitalization, and death data

https://covidtracking.com/

Posted by: ptb | Apr 4 2020 14:21 utc | 161

@Pft #104
nCOV can theoretically infect any human cell, but it clearly targets the lung cells - particularly the ones with ACE2.
Not at all clear that there is a risk of serious infection from the eyes.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 4 2020 14:26 utc | 162

@joetv #113
Seriously? You didn't even bother to search on Google, did you?
Here's a WHO Scanning Electron Microscope photo of the novel coronavirus: WHO photo

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 4 2020 14:29 utc | 163

Short, 16-minute film on China's People's War, footage from China's mass mobilization to suppress the virus:

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/04/c_138946047.htm

Propaganda, yes. But informative.

Posted by: Prof K | Apr 4 2020 14:31 utc | 164

Some mortality data for those who still think this is a hoax or over-stated:
source

As of March 29 in France, 2,606 people who tested positive for COVID-19 had died in hospitals alone. Perhaps even more worrisome, there were already 4,632 people in intensive-care units, up from approximately 1,500 one week earlier. Between the number of people who left intensive care because they had died and those who left because their condition had improved, it means that probably almost twice as many people have already required admission to intensive care since the beginning of the outbreak in France. By comparison, during the entire 2018–19 season, 490 people who had the flu died in hospitals, and 2,915 people required admission to intensive care. Not only are we already way past that with the COVID-19 pandemic, but, even in the most optimistic scenario that I consider plausible, those figures will be at least 15 times higher.
2600 nCOV deaths so far in France vs. 490 for the entire 2018-2019 flu season.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 4 2020 14:35 utc | 165

@159 Joe | Apr 4 2020 14:13 utc

"However, i don’t think we ever beat this. Even with a vaccine, the virus can mutate. It is with us now forever, just like the common cold."

The general view is it will come back in 2-3 'annual' waves of decreasing effect and simply join the coronavirus soup out there that we all share for our cold's, flu's and influenza's etc.

However, this strain is mutating at a rate of 7 times in 24 months (3-4 months) and seems attracted to plastic and stainless steel surfaces whereon it is more resilient. Given our new-world environment of ubiquitous micro-plastics and shrinking natural habitats which increase wild animal-human contact and pressure this Anthropocene shit-show tango has only just started.

Posted by: imo | Apr 4 2020 14:38 utc | 166

The wife tried her hand at making masks. Three choices - it fits perfectly, or it ties on with laces, or it uses elastic bands. Perfect fit is kind of a nonstarter. Laces and knots will work if you are adept at doing this behind your head or if you have someone available to tie it for you. And right there to tie it again when the knots loosen. Which is why masks are normally made with elastic bands. So the fabric store is closed. Try to find elastic online. Sold out and no new stock expected.

Talked to both hardware stores and the paint store I normally use. They order masks and they are stolen before the truck arrives. If a partial shipment arrives the employees promptly vanish the masks. The one shopkeeper had bought them in bulk and mounted a dispenser at the front door. Take one for free. He didn’t care if someone took five or ten. What happened was customers just took them all. Didn’t matter how often the dispenser was refilled, they were all gone instantly. And you won’t see anyone wearing them. Simply hoarded.

I’ll wear a mask when I can get a mask. That supply of basic masks cannot be managed tells me this is a failed state. No ability at all to do the simplest thing.

Posted by: oldhippie | Apr 4 2020 14:42 utc | 167

I guess the panicked TP buyers in grocery stores weren't wrong...
Toilet Paper supply chain in trouble
Net net: 40% of TP use was previously in public (restaurants etc) - that's all gone into the home. Plus a lot of the TP came from China - we know all about supply chain issues because of that.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 4 2020 14:44 utc | 168

Its everybody for themselves: New York steals masks in Port of New York bound for Massachusetts source
This on top of someone from the US intercepting masks bought by France RT source

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 4 2020 14:48 utc | 169

Unless I'm paranoid or just too tired... I looked for my comment posted in the early 100's and can't seem to find??
It was up for a short while, was it so offensive as to scrub? My apologizes if by checking I just missed it.

***

There are risks to wearing a mask. (1) whatever COV19 droplets you've collected on its surface can still be contagious when you touch it taking it on and off. (2) it takes about 15 minutes for the surface to develop a biofilm of bacteria and fungi that multiply unchecked outside the body. You then breath them back in in doses that can infect you with garden variety illnesses, this making you more susceptible to COV19. You must be really careful with handling and sanitizing the mask as detailed in some fine posts above.

However, are we to assume mask wearing as a new social norm? As, a preventative in pandemic areas, maybe... but just like sheltering at home... it is ridiculous to adhere to these measures in areas not heavily affected, or for extended periods of time. These measures should only be recommended on a community by community basis based on the capacity of health services.

In my area of Wisconsin there are no cases. We are all very compliant in my community so there is not likely to be any cases... until we all go back to work eventually (for those who have jobs or businesses to still go back to). But you cannot "eradicate" COV19 from the human species until we acquire "herd" immunity naturally, or all become vaccinated. My community is being wreaked, like many others.. and odds are an outbreak will happen in the community AFTER we all mingle again... so then what? back to isolation?

My point is that, you can do both- heavily control spread in pandemic areas- AND allow natural immunity to occur in the healthy populations. In fact, this is what Japan, Singapore, and S. Korea have done. People are going back to work, but local outbreaks are still heavily monitored.

We don't seem to have an "end game" strategy or any centralized monitoring. And, we cannot all stay at home indefinitly.

Posted by: matt | Apr 4 2020 14:56 utc | 170

Wearing masks are intended to protect the people not wearing the mask.

I know that is a difficult concept for Americans to even understand much less practice.

Posted by: jinn | Apr 4 2020 15:00 utc | 171

Double whammy from the wonk magazines:
US Economy uniquely vulnerable to coronavirus
The Death of American Competence
And note for the above - the last 25 years, not just DJT.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 4 2020 15:04 utc | 172

oldhippie | Apr 4 2020 14:42 utc | 167 (masks)

Wally visited B-Box Hardware at 6 AM (local), as there was stuff Mrs Wally had ordered and he had to go get it...

Vellyinnerestin. Almost zero masks-wearing. But some red or black bandannas. Many gloves. People being cautious...100 person maximo permitted to visit...

Fedex raised their rates...an 8 buckie V-belt takes 15 buckies to deliver....

Keiser and the Pretty Stacy call for 50 buckie wages...

Is Taft Hartley about to die? Money Guns and Lawyers can't fix this...

Meantime, his oldtimey (made about 1888 drill press) and Mrs Wally are making the sequestering as "we" go ahead to glorious Victory...making it fun. What else in face of...well, whatever.

Wally draws cartoons...and sent out Groundhog Day Cards (per usual) depicting Boris blasting Phil, and opposing, Phil blasting Boris (and the Natasha)... He sniffs politely, graciously accepting kudos for his Prescient Vision. Ahem... Mutual Suicide? Ach Nein! Just plain old war...

Trouble ahead, trouble behind...

The Ringer is not empty, but it's still a Ringer... looksee what "they" do...

Not watch birdie so much.

No TP? Figure it out...on the Bounty they perhaps had a bucket of sea water on a rope...for to convenience of the crew.

Meantime motorizing a kitchen board flour mill...60 revs maximo, double reduction necessary...swamp cooler pulleys and chezoid plain journal bearings. Mrs Wally is a good cook...Wally hizzelf is a fair wright.

Later Dudes an' Dudetts.

There's the whistle! (Wally actually has a brass steam whistle on the compressor...)

Posted by: Walter | Apr 4 2020 15:09 utc | 173

William Gruff 152

Spot on! Ivomec is called 'spot on' in the UK.
It is applied by body weight as you say. This gives a dose of poison sufficient to kill the parasite but low enough not to bother the host. There seem to be varieties because dog 'spot on' should not be used on cats. We used it on guinea pigs years ago.

There are papers on the droplet size from a sneeze which recon the smallest is 0.3 micron so 95 percent capture by a mask. But what about molecules in clumps of a few diffusing in the air? Will we breathe them in?

First rate work b and many superb comments. Collective intelligence, keep it up.

Posted by: Old Engineer | Apr 4 2020 15:10 utc | 174

jinn @160:

... the less sick you are the more you are allowed to spread the virus. This suggest a natural selection process where the mutations that are less deadly will flourish ...

It's not the virus that kills. It's the host's weakness (immune weaknesses related to age, pollution, genetics, etc.).

So allowing 'natural selection' would kill susceptible hosts, not the bad forms of virus. At which point there would be few Covid-19 cases (the disease that develops when the body doesn't fight off the virus). 'Herd immunity' would slow the virus but it's likely that it would still circulate among the population, a threat to anyone that is susceptible.

Allowing all who are susceptible to this virus to die (millions, if not tens of millions) is not acceptable to a civilized society anymore than death from measles, small pox, and other such diseases are.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 4 2020 15:11 utc | 175

@ c1ue | Apr 4 2020 14:44 utc | 168 who wrote
"
Plus a lot of the TP came from China - we know all about supply chain issues because of that.
"
Would you care to back up that lie with some data. I worked in IT supply chain for what is now Georgia Pacific for over 20 years and I think you are full of shit. But then we have had these episodes before where you spout stuff from a very limited knowledge base.

Why don't you try comment less often but about things you know something about.

Posted by: psychohistorian | Apr 4 2020 15:12 utc | 176

oldhippie @ 167

Rather than strips of elastic has your wife considered using hair bands? They are a couple of inches long and already in a loop. As its not an obvious use for them they may still be in the hair care section.

Posted by: JohninMK | Apr 4 2020 15:22 utc | 177

matt | Apr 4 2020 14:56 utc | 170 "We don't seem to have an "end game" strategy or any centralized monitoring. And, we cannot all stay at home indefinitly."

China especially and perhaps South Korea look to be eliminating it entirely so people can go back to work. US and a few other countries may gain this 'herd immunity' through sacrificing their useless eaters.
Then there are the countries that are greatly reducing the spread, yet not taking steps required for eradicating the virus. For these countries, there is no end goal other than hiding under the blankets and hoping a vaccine turns up. Open ended lockdown.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 4 2020 15:25 utc | 178

@psychohistorian #176
Perhaps you should read the article - it actually talks about (and with) Georgia Pacific.
And you should also note that what I posted is from the article - it isn't my own opinion.
So shove off. Your half-baked answer is consistent with your past idiotic and half-baked responses.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 4 2020 15:30 utc | 179

In the UK, so I assume Europe as well, almost all the pulp used to manufacture TP comes from Scandinavia, especially Finland. That pulp is then processed into TP in factories sited in most countries in the EU.

Is it the similar in the US, it being more cost effective for pulp rather than rolls of TP moving around the continent.

Posted by: JohninMK | Apr 4 2020 15:30 utc | 180

Posted by: joetv | Apr 4 2020 2:43 utc | 113

Do your own search. Trot over Here. Link brings up Page 1 of 131. The studies, what is known based on evidence so far, lined up as pre-Pub. Many are J. Med. Virology; Epub No. Abstracts available. A few full articles are Free.

You are welcome.

========

There is a special place in the Gobi desert quick sand for some western leaders. Warmongers. Instead of focusing on eradicating COVID-19, the disease that has shut out people's income, focus is on Weapons:

US Envoy to NATO Floats Idlib Aid ‘Package’ to Turkey in Exchange for Dropping Russia’s S-400s
LINK

Ankara is expected to activate the S-400s in the coming weeks, but Washington has not given up on its plans to get the much-feared weapons out of Turkey. Stick has not worked, apparently, so not is the time to offer some carrot.
The United States may come to Turkey’s aid in Idlib in exchange for dropping plans to deploy Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems.

========

US dairy farmers are dumping milk

========

@ Circe 115

Send Trump a caution tweet: it's a door that swings left and right. Certified idiot he.

1. 3M manufactures in Canada and also in other countries. 2. Most of the material to manufacture the masks in 3M's U.S. plants are imported from Canada and other countries.


Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 4 2020 15:43 utc | 182

@ 122 / 157 dltravers ... yes... thanks.. i appreciate it! i hope that continues if your data is all correct..

Posted by: james | Apr 4 2020 15:46 utc | 183

Halo Sab 181

Plenty of denial crap like that about but all of it concentrates on a simple test and studiously ignore clinical symptoms especially imaging that go into making a diagnosis.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 4 2020 15:53 utc | 184

@ me 182


While not coming right and saying it, many saw Trudeau’s reference to not interrupting trade in “either direction” a subtle nod to the fact that Canada is the exclusive producer of many strategic raw materials American companies, including 3M, rely upon.

A company in Canada, Harmac Pacific, is the world’s only producer of the particular grade of paper pulp used in the manufacture of surgical masks and gowns.


“K10S is the pulp that we’re producing for these medical supplies. We’re the only one that produces it,” - Levi Sampson, Canadian mill Harmac Pacific president

So now suddenly that makes things a bit awkward…

I call on Canada @JustinTrudeau to immediately stop shipping any components or materials to 3M in the United States, if they won’t send us back finished products. That includes the pulp needed for N95 masks.

Canadian Twitter user reaction

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 4 2020 15:54 utc | 185

The worldometer corona virus page now has testing stats per country. Posting the link to the page gets the comment zapped for whatever reason.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 4 2020 16:00 utc | 186

@Peter AU1 | Apr 4 2020 16:00 utc | 186

The worldometer corona virus page now has testing stats per country. Posting the link to the page gets the comment zapped for whatever reason.

I have no problem linking to Worldometer

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 4 2020 16:14 utc | 187

TP;
Question; If you wanted to try out a type of mind manipulation on the population, which would clearly show if the results were what you wanted - what would you use? Choose something that is only occasionally bought in large quantities, ie. 32 rolls once in a year. TP. If there is a "rush" then your manipulation can be easily seen to be a success as the sales areas will be empty.

How to do it= Remember subliminal images which can be included in visual material? One isolated image or text, repeated over a set period. (With a possible "rythm" element as you can fall asleep if you go past a regular object, telephone poles, etc at a certain speed?). Easy to do on a screen.
You can probably also use something like sub-aural for "Smart" telephones (hearing). There are possibly other sub-threshold means available, but I am only speculating. It could also simply be by the MSM "amplification" of a panic. But the success of the manipulation would be a panic over something easily identifiable.
-------

One thing that annoys me is the idea that IF the french Health Minister and Hubby were trying to slow or stop the use of Chloroquinine, then this would have had an adverse effect on the number of cases of symptomatic infection that were treated. Which in turn would have influenced the number of other cases that became lethal after being infected by them. ie they would be ****responsible for the severity of the outbreak in France. (I left out the word "partially".... which I first considered putting in front of .**** responsible for. Needs investigation)

Posted by: Stonebird | Apr 4 2020 16:19 utc | 188

@ 185 likklemore... thanks for that.. harmac is centered in the place i live!! https://harmacpacific.com/ unless something has changed it is run and owned by many locals...‘They said it couldn’t be done:’ Harmac celebrates 10 years of employee ownership... there is a strong socialist type vibe that has always existed on vancouver island.. this is a good example of it.. it is pretty funny that is coming out as i was unaware of all that! thanks.. we will stop delivery to 3M!!!

Posted by: james | Apr 4 2020 16:29 utc | 189

apparently they are always making masks for the local hospital here.... and according to my source if you have a beard - most all of these masks don't work.. sorry guys!

Posted by: james | Apr 4 2020 16:31 utc | 190

always - already... opps...

Posted by: james | Apr 4 2020 16:32 utc | 191

Posted by: Joe | Apr 4 2020 14:13 utc | 159

I am pretty sure i have it. Sore throat, migrated to the lungs, some digestive issues, some headaches, no real trouble breathing yet.

Maybe you do not have it. If you did not have persistent fever so far, it could be just a common cold.
And in order to make sure it is in your lungs a doctor should listen your chest with stethoscope to hear wheezing or gurgling. He would then send you for chest x-ray to see are there any shadows.
In the case the doctor suspects you have (god forbid) an interstitial kind of pneumonia, CT scan might be necessary to detect thickening of lung tissue filaments. But then you would already have trouble breathing.


Posted by: hopehely | Apr 4 2020 16:36 utc | 192

hopehely

From what I read some time ago, lung problems will show up in imaging before a patient has or notices difficulty breathing. I think that was part of the findings in China.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 4 2020 16:48 utc | 193

@ james 188

Stay safe as you Go for It with the barricades. Unbelievable, in this age of abundant information there exists certifiable idiots who aspire to leadership.

here is little Justin Trudeau being "very constructive" in discussion with Trump on the issue:


Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country was not planning to retaliate over U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to block 3M Co’s (MMM.N) exports of N95 respirator masks for use by doctors and nurses.[.]
“We are not looking at retaliatory measures or measures that are punitive,” he said in his daily address in Ottawa. “We know it is in both of our interests to work collaboratively and cooperatively to keep our citizens safe.[.]

and this stupid revelation given the U.S. has been snatching such shipments:
Trudeau said a chartered air shipment of millions of masks was due to arrive in Canada in the next 48 hours.

Is it under RCMP escort?

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 4 2020 16:58 utc | 194

Main reason for figures in France are then due to 1) admitting ppl with pre-existing weaknesses too late in hospitals (only after breathing problems are declared, according to the gov recommendation) and 2) refusal by the authorities to allow GPs to give chloroquine to patients in the early stages (although it is given to some lucky ppl in some lucky Parisian hospitals). A petition is now online, 80000 persons have signed (check
#NePerdonsPlusDeTemps)

Posted by: Mina | Apr 4 2020 17:04 utc | 195

>US dairy farmers are dumping milk

More shades of Great Depression One, when commodity prices dropped, like now, and millions were hungry, like now. Farmers were ordered/paid to dump milk, kill livestock, etc. in order to cut supply and drive up prices. It didn't work. There are stories that farmers would kill their livestock then let it be known where they were buried so hungry people could dig them back up, but I don't know if they are true.

One difference between then and now: in the 1930s there were huge masses of migrant workers roaming the countryside so there was always plenty of cheap labor. Now, there is less need for seasonal labor overall, but absolutely critical for harvesting fruit and vegetables. Most of that labor now comes from other nations, since US peons can no longer survive on seasonal work. But borders are closed and apparently that includes many seasonal laborers. Oops.

Maybe there is nothing to worry about. "Let Them Eat Dollars" is the new motto and the closest that Dear Leaders can come to a plan. That will work, won't it?

Posted by: Trailer Trash | Apr 4 2020 17:11 utc | 196

Going back to reducing the Case Fatality Rates (% of sick who die) of those who have Covid. Youtube video from Korean TV (Feb 13) re: their response to Covid. They were using anti-viral aids drugs (not clear which one) or HCQ.

Their CFR is much lower than US, Italy, Spain, etc. I am not sure when China started using HCQ or any other meds, but their CFR is also low, and I am sure that both country's level of preparedness also has a lot to do with the low CFR.

Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEGPtf7QGSM

Charts:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

Or it may be that China is hiding their real numbers ...

Posted by: mpn | Apr 4 2020 17:21 utc | 197

ptb @ 161

The pending test data is almost all from California. Nothing from NY.

Posted by: dltravers | Apr 4 2020 17:32 utc | 198

Posted by: Mina | Apr 4 2020 17:04 utc | 194
All government measures you mentioned are the same here in British Columbia and we keep this thing under control with the number of active cases slowly decreasing.
So,

Main reason for figures in France are then due to

1. Lack of discipline towards physical and social distancing
2. Poor personal hygiene
3. You touch, kiss and lick each other too much
4. You have super spreaders you did not manage to catch and squash in time.

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 4 2020 17:33 utc | 199

Posted by: Mina | Apr 4 2020 17:04 utc | 196

What you say is true. But I think the policy in France is likely to change - 1) under the pressure of events, and public demand, and 2) because Didier Raoult is gaining in reputation, he's now well known and no longer a marginal figure.

Posted by: Laguerre | Apr 4 2020 18:36 utc | 200

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