Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 19, 2020

The MoA Week In Review - Open Thread 2020-31

Last week's posts at Moon of Alabama:

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Other issues:

On two Coronavirus pieces on other websites:

The piece debunks itself when it quotes a Swedish epidemiologist who says:

“The truth is that we have a policy similar to that of other countries,” says Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, “Like everyone, we are trying to slow down the rate of infection … The differences derive from a different tradition and from a different culture that prevail in Sweden. We prefer voluntary measures, and there is a high level of trust here between the population and the authorities, so we are able to avoid coercive restrictions”

Sweden can do without orders of social distancing because its people will socially distance voluntarily when asked. That works because "there is a high level of trust here between the population and the authorities". That does not hold for the community of Somali people and other immigrants in Sweden more of whom are dying than in any other group.

Now project such a voluntary attempt onto the U.S. public where there is little, if any, trust between the population and the authorities. It simply would not work and one would soon have a runaway epidemic with all its bad consequences. Whitney's conclusion that we should all do like Sweden is thus not justified.

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The piece was posted on April 17. One of the 'experts' it quotes is Dr. John Oxford, "an English virologist and Professor at Queen Mary, University of London." Here is the quote as posted on Off-Guardian:

Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65% people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!

– “A VIEW FROM THE HVIVO / OPEN ORPHAN #ORPH LABORATORY”, blog post on Novus Communications website, March 31st 2020

Two remarks:

a. On April 17, when Off-Guardian posted the piece, the United Kingdom already had 14.607 deaths from Covid-19. Those were 6.600 more than the total number Dr. John Oxford predicted. If the real numbers, which are still increasing, are already 80+% higher than the expert's guestimate should one really use that expert to claim that the 'coronavirus panic' is unjustified?

b. Dr. Oxford made his claim in a "blog post on Novus Communications website". Novus Comes is a public relations agency which provides "financial social media & digital communications for small caps". The company is paid by its clients to talk up certain sectors of the stock market. Should one really use paid PR posts on a PR company's website to judge if some 'panic' about an epidemic is justified?

As for the other 'experts' Off-Guardian quoted. Yes, there ar some doctors who do have a different opinion than most of their colleagues. But that does not make them right.

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An astroturfing campaign was launched in the U.S. to end the lockdowns. It is paid for by rightwing big money:

Somebody did some extremely basic WHOIS searching and found that the person who set up all the "reopen $STATENAME" protest web sites is in fact one guy in Jacksonville. -> reddit thread

and:

[Thread] 1/ Much talk this morning about numerous Facebook groups cropping up with "insert state name" + "against excessive quarantine". Some are suggesting that there is mass astroturfing campaign occurring to pressure state governors to reopen after Donald Trump's tirade
...
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Covid-19 is a really, really nasty disease:

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We need to learn from this:

Use as open thread ...

Posted by b on April 19, 2020 at 14:26 UTC | Permalink

Comments
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"Whitney's conclusion that we should all do like Sweden is thus not justified."

Whitney's conclusion:

"The Swedish plan will continue to be criticized by public health experts who think that their draconian recommendations should be fully-implemented without the slightest deviation, but it could turn out that the Swedish model is not only vastly superior to the other courses of action but, ultimately, the only real option for countries that want to save lives but avoid a permanently-hobbled and severely-depressed economy."

It could. Or it might not.

Posted by: Bruce | Apr 19 2020 21:18 utc | 101

HIV discoverer Luc Montagnier says:
“The Wuhan city laboratory has specialized in these coronaviruses since the early 2000s. They have expertise in this area,” he says. The professor explains having analyzed “in the smallest details” the sequence with his mathematician colleague Jean-Claude Perrez. “We were not the first, since a group of Indian researchers tried to publish a study which shows that the complete genome of this coronavirus [has] sequences of another virus, which is HIV, the virus AIDS”.

According to him, the HIV sequence was inserted into the coronavirus genome in an attempt to make an HIVvaccine. "It's a sorcerer's apprentice job," he says.

https://www.cnews.fr/france/2020-04-17/
le-coronavirus-est-un-virus-sorti-dun-laboratoire-chinois-avec-de-ladn-de-vih

Posted by: Pft | Apr 19 2020 21:20 utc | 102

"Do you want me to police the comments for reasonability all day or do you want me to write new comprehensive post?

There is no "Do both" choice in this."

How about accepting polite comments that disagree with what you have written? Nobody should expect or assume the moderator is the sole purveyor of wisdom.

Posted by: Bruce | Apr 19 2020 21:27 utc | 103

Thank you b for sending the rifraff back to the bar at the Institute for Statecraft.
There they get paid to chunder on Moa floors and annoy the patrons.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 19 2020 21:27 utc | 104

So I say, let’s just keep everyone under lockdown and just shut it all for about another year, maybe two. It will keep everyone safe and free from death. We can rely on our wonderful government sending us checks every month and we can keep Amazon and other online retailers in booming times. Since many think that this reaction to this pandemic is justified, let’s just drive ourselves into a deep state of depression. And may it become a self fulfilling prophecy for many who hate this country and watch it go down the sewer pipe.

Posted by: Jose Garcia | Apr 19 2020 21:39 utc | 105

this country... lol jose... did you have a country in mind?? it helps to fill in the blanks.. we all live in different countires, or you are new here!

Posted by: james | Apr 19 2020 21:41 utc | 106

Christos Voskrese! (Christ is Risen!)

On this Orthodox Easter Sunday I'd just like to remind those who say that this is a virus similar in effect to the effects of previous 'flu seasons, that really, the hospital statistics do not bear this out. As b says, this is a new illness that is very much different from any 'flu. And it is not to be taken lightly. I will say that the diversity of opinions and theories here is no different from many Orthodox sites I visit - it is a human characteristic, and especially a US one, to be suspicious of authority, to venture to support many diverse opinions - and I cannot judge, only to say that there is so much that is unknown about the virus, and who is to say what is right or wrong about it, because we are only now accumulating the science that will sort all of that out.

BUT, we do already know this: from what we see in hospital situations, while the influx of virus patients is mainly elderly and health compromised, the hospital workers themselves are gravely at risk, young and old. That puts it in a category more similar to ebola - not exactly the same, but as severe in that respect. Also, workers out in the general public or in confined working circumstances, are experiencing 'hot spots'. It seems to me the lockdown rules address this, and their rationale is to slow virus accumulation in not having us all at the same time be flocking to the hospitals or without the necessities of life being provided by essential workers. There is also the element of time being able to allow for a greater understanding of what we are dealing with. And China gave the rest of the world time, no matter how the rest of the world has responded to that gift. We ought never to forget that.

I am not in any hurry for the lockdowns to be lifted. I am not in any hurry for 'business as usual' to resume. 'Business as usual' was austerity! Take all the time you need, caregivers and workers; take all the time you need to be safe at home!

I Will suggest, however, something I read on another site - that there ought to be a General Strike on May 1, the traditional time for such protests to occur. Now, we shall have to be creative in observing the virus protocols - but US protesters are nothing if not creative!!! I am not a worker, but retired, and I already know that I shall be able to observe my support for workers in this manner: no electronics, no internet, no tv, no phone - on that day May 1 it will all be off.

And in the traditional response to my above Easter Greeting:

Vo Istinu Voskrese!! (Indeed, He is Risen!)

Posted by: juliania | Apr 19 2020 21:48 utc | 107

Does it really matter any more? Why bother expending mental energy on an unanswerable question? You might as well seek a scientific solution to the existence of god: have you seen a coronavirus? Blessed are those who believe without having seen...

So much for cause. Effects on the other hand are with us. I would like to hear more from this forum about the paradigm shift that has taken place now that the 'state of plague' has ushered in a true 'state of exception'—for what else would have induced ideologues in government across the world to abandon so comprehensively a half-century of neoliberal policy in a matter of weeks?

You are all still living in a world of scientific and empirical verification when we all live under the sign of indeterminacy, uncertainty and the resurgence of superstition. CoVID-19 may not be the Black Death but the responses to it will up-end liberal capitalism just as surely as the Black Death nailed shut the coffin of the feudal order. Let's talk about that instead of this 'he said-she-said' waste of time.

Posted by: Patroklos | Apr 19 2020 21:52 utc | 108

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/19/europe/italy-mafia-exploiting-coronavirus-crisis-aid-intl/index.html
"Saviano believes liquidity will be "the center of everything" in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis.
"The organization will come to a company in crisis and say: 'We don't buy everything, but we will give you cash in exchange for shares -- to become part of your company,'" he said.
"This is what they will do with everyone." "

As long as off-shore banking is facilitated...

Posted by: Mina | Apr 19 2020 21:58 utc | 109

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 19 2020 19:55 utc | 79

I do not see that as "picking" on Sweden. People and some media are talking how Sweden performed well against the local epidemic.

Being number 7 in the world in casualties per population is NOT good performance. This does not mean that the other several countries who are even worse than Sweden deserve anything but harsh criticism for being the worst in the world.

But being in the top 7 in casualties per population is NOT good performance. Sweden should not be praised. The big majority of countries in the world performed better.

Posted by: Passer by | Apr 19 2020 21:59 utc | 110


According to a Stanford University study, actual infections in the region vastly outnumber confirmed ones by a factor of more than 50....

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/17/1000113/up-to-4-of-

silicon-valley-already-infected-with-coronavirus/


The authors claim their data helps prove undetected infections are more widespread than reported (duh, well we knew that but nice to see it confirmed), thus the death rate in the county may be at least 50 times less (CFR/50) assuming deaths are properly counted (might be over counted actually but thats not in study)

It’s also hard to extrapolate from Santa Clara, one of the wealthiest counties in California, to the rest of the country
People had to be on Facebook and have a car to respond to their ads....

....in Manhattan, two hospital obstetrics wards decided to test every woman coming to give birth—the 215 expectant mothers were something of a random sample—and found that 15% were infected, though many didn’t have symptoms at the time of testing. They used genetic tests, which are considered the most accurate way to detect current infection but don’t capture those who’ve already recuperated.

A Boston homeless shelter also tested 408 residents, using the genetic tests, and found that infection there was rampant: more than 35% tested positive. 

So hey, maybe herd immunity is closer than we think.

Here is a theory on why they are doing lock downs.

Gates and others have already clued us in on whats coming. Those who have antibodies will get immunity certificates and be free to travel. Those without immunity will need to wait for a vaccine and then be required to be vaccinated to get a vaccine certificate (or microchip) proving you are vaccinated and thus free to travel outside your home.

So, since the vaccine will take up to 18 months, the powers that be want to minimize those who have antibodies. This will mean a larger number of people who will need to get these DNA changing vaccines which are highly experimental and not safety tested over long periods.

The group most likely to have antibodies and exempt from testing will be those who were free to move around during the outbreak, being in essential services. Those include the elites , health care workers, public officials, military and first responders. Those subject to lock down, elderly, retired folks, non essential workers (restaurants, bars, gyms, kids, teachers, etc) will be antibody free and need to be vaccinated. Lockdown subjects are the most expendable members of the population.

Posted by: Pft | Apr 19 2020 22:19 utc | 111

teatree | Apr 19 2020 20:48 utc | 93

Thanks for that. Makes me want to read that book again.

Posted by: David F | Apr 19 2020 22:20 utc | 112

juliania | Apr 19 2020 21:48 utc | 108

Came across this info this morning, note it is statistics from two weeks ago.

Preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control show that 9,282 U.S. health-care workers have been diagnosed with the virus through April 2. Through April 9, at least 723 had been hospitalized, including 184 in the ICU. Twenty-seven had died from a COVID-19 infection.

"I am not in any hurry for the lockdowns to be lifted. I am not in any hurry for 'business as usual' to resume. 'Business as usual' was austerity! Take all the time you need, caregivers and workers; take all the time you need to be safe at home!"

I fully agree with this statement.

Posted by: David F | Apr 19 2020 22:27 utc | 113

@ Bemildred

Thank you.

Posted by: oglalla | Apr 19 2020 22:28 utc | 114

Patroklos [the ghost of Ivan the terrible troll] wails @109:

... the responses to it will up-end liberal capitalism just as surely as the Black Death nailed shut the coffin of the feudal order.

... the botched responses to it will up-end crony, neo-liberal capitalism ... and that could nail shut the coffin of the neo-feudal order that has been developing for the last three decades.

TIFFY

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 19 2020 22:31 utc | 115

@ Posted by: Pft | Apr 19 2020 22:19 utc | 112

This may help enlighten the situation:

Herd immunity? 1 in 3 test positive for Covid-19 ANTIBODIES in pilot Massachusetts street study

The test used for those 200 randomly selected subjects: antibody ones. The same ones which are still not reliable:

Antibody Test, Seen as Key to Reopening Country, Does Not Yet Deliver

It is a classic case of failed methodology. And the size of the sample (only 200 from a tiny city in Massachusetts) doesn't seem to be scientific grade: for accurate political polls by random samples, minimum size is usually at 2,000 for a country the size of Brazil (200 million inhabitants). And, since the COVID-19 is decidedly a nationwide phenomenon, the sample should not be confined to a single city.

Posted by: vk | Apr 19 2020 22:33 utc | 116

Immunity

There is some evidence that antibodies against SARS infection last only about 2 years. The concern is that this might apply to sars-ncov2 as well.

So this might give us pause when we hear that its just a matter of everyone getting it and then everyone will be immune and things will be good again. I cetainly hope that may be the case, but its not guaranteed by any means.

Posted by: Deltaeus | Apr 19 2020 22:33 utc | 117

"How about accepting polite comments that disagree with what you have written? Nobody should expect or assume the moderator is the sole purveyor of wisdom.

Posted by: Bruce | Apr 19 2020 21:27 utc | 104 replying to b @ 81

I am compelled to conclude you missed the ugly insults to our host by some ignoramus newbies who just walked in. Surely not good manners. Yes, we do practice old fashioned good manners. It is b's blog and he sets the rules. I've been here for many moons before my venture into commenting. You owe an apology. b allows comments that disagrees.

Funny I do not read you protesting Twitter, Facebook and Google's Youtube; in the case of Google de-platforming people and their revenue stream..

========

The Great Economic Lockdown and its hopeful re-opening to a V, W, or L recovery. The how to re-open?

In the US: Trump v. Governors:
Don't reopen yet, governors tell Trump as coronavirus deaths cross 40,000


(Reuters) - Governors in U.S. states hardest hit by the novel coronavirus sparred with President Donald Trump over his claims they have enough tests and should quickly reopen their economies as more protests are planned over the extension of stay-at-home orders.[.]

Cuomo, along with other governors, are clamoring for more tests to detect new infections as well as to test for immunity as part of their plans to reopen their states.

Republican Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland during a CNN interview said claims by Trump and Vice President Mike Pence that states have plenty of tests were “just absolutely false.”

Democratic Governor Ralph Northam of Virginia told CNN the idea states have enough tests was “delusional.”[.]

As time passes, 100s of thousands of companies, including professionals, will not return. COID-19 was the pin. Felled by a virus.

April 19, 2020.
Just imagine: Grandee Neiman Marcus "to file for bankruptcy as soon as this week. Neiman Marcus skipped millions of dollars in debt payments last week, including one that only gave the company a few days to avoid a default." Neiman Marcus’ borrowings total about $4.8 billion, according to credit ratings firm Standard & Poor’s.

J.C. Penney and Neiman Marcus tells the tale. Debt does not end well.

Who survives? only the Vult*** group:
AMAZON, WALMART, BLACKROCK, JP MORGAN and cohorts.

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 19 2020 22:33 utc | 118

This morning I had come here to see if anyone had responded to my posts late last night in the previous thread. I opened MOA in another tab so I could write a comment while reading the one I was responding to. I noticed the week in review had been posted, it was only up for maybe 10 minutes at this point.

By the time I read it, maybe another 2 minutes, there was 1 comment, when I clicked on the comment link, there were 10 comments. The comments just seemed to be flying in really fast.

As far as I can tell, the RSS feed doesnt work, at least when I tried to subscribe it didnt work for me. How are these posters who have never been here before finding out about a new post and filling up the comment section so quickly?

Posted by: David F | Apr 19 2020 22:36 utc | 119

@ 36 david f... thanks! yes - gardening and i have an drainage issue i have been working on part time the past 2 weeks!

@ 70 oglalla.. thanks for saying all that to ivan and i agree with your whole post too fwiw.. ditto your comment to bemildred as well..

@ 79 norwegian.. i happen to agree with @ 11 passerby as well... i am not sure what has turned you off b and moa so much, but so be it.. frankly as far as sweden is concerned - i wish them all the best in the approach they are taking, but i can't help but point out sweden acted fully in concert with the usa-uk with regard to assange.. for that i hold a dim view on sweden that will take a long time for me to alter.. frankly i am surprised you are still here given your ongoing unhappiness with b and etc.. i too share oglallas position - a viewpoint can change and it can be gradual or quick.. i think b has changed as he has seen fit.. i guess we just see it differently..

Posted by: james | Apr 19 2020 22:40 utc | 120

Posted by: petra | Apr 19 2020 16:03 utc | 13 Prof. Ion Ioannidis' research unit continues its excellent statistical analyses with yet another large-sample study showing (yet again) in concrete terms that this _is, indeed_ just another flu...

This dumb-ass needs to get out of his "research unit" and go talk to some doctors on the front lines. They will tell him otherwise.


Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 19 2020 22:48 utc | 121

Highly contagious yes, carried and spread by asymptomatic individuals a worrisome characteristic of this viral strain.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

There is a lot that is not known about this virus. For instance, do the people who are asymptomatic develop an immunity? They may not. What this could mean is that when the second wave comes through it will impact on the young (with no immunity) and not the old who developed the immunity in the first wave.

There is evidence that is how it worked in the 2018 pandemic.

Posted by: jinn | Apr 19 2020 22:49 utc | 122

Vaccine

(I tremble to write that word - oh look the hackles are raised everywhere! There goes any chance of rational consideration. oh well, onward...)

There is a concern, not verified, that the sars-ncov2 virus *might* make use of antibodies to infect cells. This mechanism is Antibody-dependent Enhancement (ADE) also known as vaccine enhancement. This article relates to SARS and MERS, not sars-ncov2.

So when an expert says something vague like "challenge for vaccine development", what they mean is this: *if* the virus uses antibodies as a means to infect other cells, then a vaccine can make things worse.

When you get a vaccine, you develop antibodies and that helps you fight off any future infection. If the virus uses ADE, however, when you get a vaccine you may develop antibodies that make each future infection worse.

In summary, if you have lots of antibodies you kill the infection. If you have only a few antibodies, you get infected much worse than normal. There are caveats and details in the literature.

(My friends, please do not ascribe motivations or views to me. If you have a strong view about ADE, by all means please provide good references to persuade us all.)

Posted by: Deltaeus | Apr 19 2020 22:56 utc | 123

dp, Apr19 21:14

Thanks for that interesting post. "Thoughtful quarantine" - that encapsulates what the modern quarantine should look like and what has not happened in many countries. The idea of larger cities having a hospital for managing virus cases made me think of the nineteenth century fever hospitals which did a good job of protecting the population from infectious diseases when there were no antibiotics. Given the risk of

Posted by: cirsium | Apr 19 2020 23:00 utc | 124

@ Pft 103

This article from the Journal of Microbes and Emerging Infections takes issue with that position

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2020.1727299

Regarding N95 masks. If you use the common 3M mask, it has a platic exhale vent on it that is unfiltered. It filters your inhalations but if for example you are an asymptomatic carrier, you exhale goes out the vent with all it's viruses and droplets. To fix it, put a piece of tape over the inside of the vent and your exhalations will be filtered as well

Antonia III - your burning house/fire department analogy is quite useful.

Posted by: Lone Plateau | Apr 19 2020 23:05 utc | 125

Posted by: concerned | Apr 19 2020 18:02 utc | 49 I am having difficulty coming up with a plan! I don't see any cracks in this maximal escalation by the aptly named "motherfuckers".

It's called "tradecraft".

I would also suggest learning combat handgunning, combat rifle, and martial arts. But the main thing you need to know is how to escape and evade surveillance and how to hack computers.

I've been planning for this crap for years. Not ready to go underground yet - that depends on how fast my learning computer hacking goes (I already know quite a bit about computer security in general.)

Individualist anarchists have seen this coming for the last hundred years. I'm just irritated I didn't have the time off from earning a living to prepare myself more fully before now. It's useful being retired - you have more time.

Of course, if you have a wife and kids, that pretty much puts paid to any way you can deal with the situation. Being someone no one wants to marry or have kids with is also useful.

I'm seriously laughing at everyone who's "concerned" now - which is too late. As the preppers have been saying lately to a lot of people who are panicked, "Trying to prepare in the middle of a crisis is too late. You should have been prepared." That's pretty much what Nassim Taleb said recently - all these corporations that are looking for a bail-out should have had a buffer set up long ago to prepare for the fact that a eventual crisis was inevitable.

I got blindsided by this pandemic myself. I considered a pandemic to not be the thing I needed to prepare for first. I prepped for power outages, water shortages, stuff that happens to people every year. I *had* masks and stuff on the list (mostly for earthquake preps) to buy - but didn't buy them yet.

This is what happens when you have a conventional viewpoint - the viewpoint that everyone else has. You get what everyone else gets. Which is fucked.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 19 2020 23:07 utc | 126

New York: 9090 Lombardy: 11954 Posted by: c1ue | Apr 19 2020 18:19 utc | 55It is increasingly looking like New York (this is the whole state, not just NYC) will pass Lombardy...

They absolutely will. As I mentioned earlier, New York state has over 4,000 people on ventilators. Unless the treatment protocol changes, 80% of those people will die which will jack the total up to over 12,000 - and that's not counting any future deaths, which will undoubtedly go up another couple thousand.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 19 2020 23:11 utc | 127

Passer by #111

But being in the top 7 in casualties per population is NOT good performance. Sweden should not be praised. The big majority of countries in the world performed better.

Unlike many other nations severely afflicted with austerity syndrome, the Swedes perhaps have a robust health system capable of responding to an immediate rush of seriously ill people. They too like all of us are at the start of a learning curve for treatments. China and Korea and others have some months training in best approach.

So Sweden initial death count may be high. But just wait a while and don't go blaming or demonising just yet. Certainly is they let it run its course many will die or be injured by this virus. The long term will provide the data upon which to make decisions.

I am more concerned with the sale of human slaves in Libya under the permit of the GNA government there. Things we have conscious and deliberate responsibility for and a deep historical data set to rely on.

Posted by:

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 19 2020 23:12 utc | 128

@119 Likklemore. Rewatched "The Big Short" last night. What a great flick. Here we are for another round.
Tic-toc, tic-toc..

Posted by: Lozion | Apr 19 2020 23:16 utc | 129

@ 131 lozion.. that's a great movie...

Posted by: james | Apr 19 2020 23:20 utc | 130

Mr. Bolsonaro is right.

There is a lot of scientific data supporting him.

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Posted by: Roberto | Apr 19 2020 23:22 utc | 131

Just finished watching an interview with dr. Rishi Desai on CGTN.

He raised a very important and basic problem with antibody tests: since countries are not testing enough, we still don't know what the normal levels of the indicator antibody is in the human organism. The test will detect the quantity of the antibody (if there's zero, there's none), but how will the doctors interpret the results? Say, if patient x has 10 antibodies and patient y has 1 antibodies, then who's infected with the COVID-19 and who wasn't (if any)?

Posted by: vk | Apr 19 2020 23:30 utc | 132

@ concerned 49

Without this pandemic the national security state has been using every opportunity to extend its control. Snowden has put emphasis on the obvious: the state will incorporate new pandemic surveillance tech & techniques into a new normal just as it normalized the provisions of the Patriot Act.(Joe Biden was the chief architect of that Patriot Act by the way.) It's an inevitability. Why? Because our way of life is not sustainable. The evidence? This pesky virus has shut down the global capitalist machine! What more proof is needed? We have no defense against a pandemic, a rather mild perturbation at that. Our Way Of Life, to use a phrase the oligarch and former CIA chief, George H W Bush, liked to use, doesn't work. OWOL is kaput! It can't resist an accidental leak from a bioweapons research lab. The entire Rube Goldberg contraption collapses in a heap!

This is funny if it were fiction. And this pandemic is not our biggest problem by any stretch. The National Surveillance State cannot hold it together, but it will try. Where are the leaders sworn to defend our Constitutions and OWOL? Hiding under Cheyenne Mountain as we speak! These fools,sometimes called "motherfuckers", who released this evil from their Pandoras box of evils developed in the name of national defense, are incompetent to defend anything, which is why they go hide under a mountain.

People capable of understanding our world are not sanguine about the future. Let's consider the co-author of the Gaia Hypothesis,James Lovelock, who may be 101 years old this year if he hasn't passed on yet. He has predicted that 3 billion or so of the world's population may die off. Why? The world is overpopulated. The world's climate system is discombobulated. It's very close to midnight according to the Union of Concerned Scientists, about 100 seconds from the witching hour. So what's a little virus? It's enough to have these authoritarian geniuses you're worried about tripping over their own feet. These ass holes are the least of our worries!

So, what's the plan, if world redemption begins with the sacred individual, moi? The plan is to socialize the people of the planet and teach them how to live with each other and in harmony with the planet and other species. Get rid of the motherfuckers and their WMD, cut their budgets and teach them a useful trade. Give every person who survives a UBI and free health care, plus a lifetime supply of birth control technology. This is the plan.

Posted by: jadan | Apr 19 2020 23:47 utc | 133

It's unfortunate that b is doubling down on his pro-quarantine theme. The evidence grows that Covid-19 is only very dangerous for the elderly and those with co-morbities. These groups should be isolated and protected, and that is happening only very haphazardly in some parts of Sweden, with predictable results. Sweden doesn't 'prove' quarantines good, non-quarantines bad. More complicated than that.

Nice post by Pft (99) on how Taiwan has handled the virus very well without a quarantine. Nice post by dp (100) on the idea of a thoughtful quarantine, where stronger measures should be enforced in areas of high population density, but no quarantine (but sensible mask-wearing and social distancing) in suburban or rural areas.

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 19 2020 23:58 utc | 134

@ Lozion 131

Thank you! Are still in that beautiful warm place or did you leave for north of the 44th currently experiencing on and off weather. Mostly off?
The link to Neiman Marcus article and others.Not pretty reading and there will be 100s more.
Of interest for Canadians, Saks Fifth Avenue., owner of Hudson Bay Co and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board escaped by a hair.

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 20 2020 0:01 utc | 135

Posted by: vk | Apr 19 2020 22:33 utc | 117

200 tested is more than enough if the sample is truly random. If one in three in Boston already have Covid-19 antibodies, this like several other studies indicates the virus is far less deadly than earlier thought. Why are you resisting the good news?

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 20 2020 0:12 utc | 136

fairleft @136:

... only very dangerous for the elderly and those with co-morbities. These groups should be isolated and protected ...

How do you isolate people in USA who are obese, diabetic, have high blood pressure, have asthma, etc?

IMO the economic scare-mongering and minimizing of the virus impact is part of a campaign to advantage financial interests at the expense of everyone else. For example, one does not see a big campaign to change strategy from 'virus mitigation' to a 'virus suppression'. 'Virus suppression' would be more costly to TPTB and would cut down Big Pharma profits.

And let's not forget that the current round of 'disaster capitalism' has a convenient, Deep-State-approved scape-goat: China. An ongoing 'disaster' is not only better for profits ... it's also perfect for hating China.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 20 2020 0:20 utc | 137

I think the ones who are anti-quarantine have already lost the argument and are, at this point, fighting against reality: almost every country - regardless of the political-ideological character of the central government - has, willingly or unwilligly, implemented some kind of quarantine.

No country outside China has implemented a true quarantine (lockdown): most are just enforcing closure of non-essential businesses and rules of social distancing. It is a petit-bourgeois myth that true lockdowns are being enforced in the West: even in the capitalist country that is closer to do what China's doing - South Korea - still allows freedom of movement.

International flights are for most part cancelled - but that's inevitable, as there's a domino effect involved in this (one big country that cancels its flights impels the smaller countries to also cancel their flights and so on).

Polls after polls in most important countries point out that, in general, the restrictive policies by their central governments are widely approved by the population in general. Even the most recent poll in the USA - the libertarian paradise - points a 60% approval of the "quarantine". In New Zealand, an absolute majority of the population approves Ardern's policies on the pandemic: she'll relax the restrictions this week, even though the same majority would approve an extension of the lockdown.

The polls certainly don't reflect the commenters here, where I would say it's more 50-50%, or 40%-60% in favor of laissez-faire. This gives more evidence for my suspicion that the average MoA commenter is American/European, Christian, petit-bourgeois or "self-employed" or retired, middle to advanced age, and paleoconservative. Those are the kind of people who would hate any interruption of superflous businesses, and would embrace any narrative they can to use it as a political tool to end said interruption.

In March, I made a bet that the West wouldn't last too much after April with these "lockdowns". Before the middle of the month the number of anti-quarantine conspiracy theories had already skyrocketed and become, by far, the dominant position in this blog. Yesterday, a bunch of astroturf movements, sponsored by the deVos family, protested at some States of the USA. I put too much faith in the West. What can I say? I'm famous for being an optimist.

Posted by: vk | Apr 20 2020 0:25 utc | 138

3 Antibodies Studies:

Mass General Hospital researchers random tested on the street.

"Just because you have the antibodies doesn’t mean you’ve cleared the virus."


Nearly a third of 200 randomly tested residents of Chelsea, Massachusetts were found to have Covid-19-related antibodies in yet another indication that the virus could be far more widespread and much less lethal than believed.

All of the participants “generally appeared healthy,” but around half of them admitted that they had suffered at least one coronavirus symptom in the past month, according to the Massachusetts General Hospital researchers.[.]

A total of 64 out of 200 blood samples tested positive for antibodies “linked to COVID-19.” However, Dr. Vivek Naranbhai, who conducted the testing, warned that the staggering result does not necessarily mean that up to a third of the Chelsea population had already contracted the virus ― and recovered without even knowing ― and that many of those tested might still be contagious.[.]

The researchers used the BioMedomics rapid diagnostic device, which has not yet been approved by the CDC and can false-positively react to other types of coronaviruses, but with an estimated accuracy of 90 percent, was still deemed reliable enough.

=========

The Stanford Study sample of 3,300 in CA. Not peer-reviewed and awaiting evaluation.


Covid-19 much more widespread than thought, and NO MORE DEADLY THAN FLU, new Stanford study suggests.

The Danish study published earlier this week using similar methods arrived at the same conclusion.[.]

The Coronaviruses' debate will continue until 2022. The economic reset will not wait the 2 years.

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 20 2020 0:30 utc | 139

Posted by: Abe | Apr 19 2020 17:05 utc | 30

Yes they did but because Amerikans are been dumb down we still believe we have control over our govt. Silly rabbit;-)

Posted by: jo6pac | Apr 20 2020 0:38 utc | 140

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 20 2020 0:20 utc | 139 How do you isolate people in USA who are obese, diabetic, have high blood pressure, have asthma, etc?

Precisely. Those "comorbidities" are no respecter of age. There are what, 34 million people with diabetes alone (26 million actually diagnosed), 70 million obese, 25 million with asthma. 78 million (1 out of 3) with high blood pressure.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 20 2020 0:44 utc | 141

Read Ioannidis, everyone, and calm down:
Stanford University epidemiologist John Ioannidis calls out media for panicking the public over COVID-19

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 20 2020 0:46 utc | 142

Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-testing-states.html


That level of testing is necessary to identify the majority of people who are infected and isolate them from people who are healthy, according to the researchers. About 20 percent of those tested so far were positive for the virus, a rate that the researchers say is too high.

“If you have a very high positive rate, it means that there are probably a good number of people out there who have the disease who you haven’t tested,” said Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “You want to drive the positive rate down, because the fundamental element of keeping our economy open is making sure you’re identifying as many infected people as possible and isolating them.”


Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 20 2020 0:46 utc | 143

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 20 2020 0:46 utc | 144 Read Ioannidis, everyone, and calm down:

As I said before, he needs to get out of his office and talk to the doctors on the front lines. If he doesn't, he's an idiot talking from an ivory tower - or he has an agenda. Do you know what his agenda is?

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 20 2020 0:48 utc | 144

CA has procured nearly 11,000 rooms to protect our homeless population from #COVID19.
Today, we announced Motel 6 is setting aside up to 5,025 rooms at 47 locations in 19 counties like the one we’re in front of today. We must continue to protect our homeless from this disease. pic.twitter.com/Peh6v2d96k — Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) April 18, 2020

And that's less than just the homeless in San Francisco...by 6 or 7 thousand people...and probably doesn't count them at all because the city thinks they can get 7,000 which is also less than half the homeless population in this city.

Last year...


At last official count 151,278 individuals are homeless in California, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. That's the highest number since at least 2007, and represents a nearly 17% uptick since 2018.

Can you say, "It ain't enough", Governor?

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 20 2020 0:53 utc | 145

by: Jackrabbit | Apr 20 2020 0:20 utc | 139

What do you mean by "minimizing"? It's simply a fact, based on the increasingly strong statistical data, that Covid-19 is not very dangerous for under-65s in good health. But no one should deny (I'm not) that the US disaster capitalism health care system puts millions in danger. This is clear in the stats. There's a huge difference in Covid mortality rates in the US and Western Europe:

"Individuals with age <65 account for 5%-9% of all COVID-19 deaths in the 8 European epicenters, and approach 30% in three US hotbed locations. People <65 years old had 34- to 73-fold lower risk than those ≥65 years old in the European countries and 13- to 15-fold lower risk in New York City, Louisiana and Michigan. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death ranged from 1.7 per million for people <65 years old in Germany to 79 per million in New York City. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from approximately 1/6,000 in Germany to 1/420 in Spain."

Source: https://t.co/32FiNJo9Vc?amp=1

And, compared to Europe, there are (many?) more Americans with poor diets and health, greatly raising the % of vulnerable in the under-65s. But the world is not the US. Maybe the Covid-19 response should be nuanced. One size probably does not fit all.

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 20 2020 0:59 utc | 146

plantman | Apr 19 2020 16:43 utc | 23

"...The architect of our policy is state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell..."

Do this mean that there is less 'political' interference into how this coronavirus is being fought?

From Wiki (not always the most reliable source):
"...Sweden has, unlike many other countries, not applied any lockdown, with most measures being voluntary. The Swedish constitution prohibits ministerial rule and mandates that the relevant government body, here an expert agency — the Public Health Agency — must initiate all actions to prevent the virus, making state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell a central figure in the crisis."

Coronavirus pandemic in Sweden

Posted by: ted01 | Apr 20 2020 1:00 utc | 147

And the government is *still* fucking up on tests...what a surprise...not...

Coronavirus Testing in the US is Insufficient and Needs Improvement
A daily Covid-19 update from Andy Slavitt, former head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
https://tinyurl.com/yc4hoopj


The biggest lie being told by the White House is that we have enough tests. All symptomatic people are not being tested. Most states don’t have enough for their nurses. We certainly don’t have enough to contact trace. The virus spreads and we remain ignorant.


There’s actually a machine that can do 10x the volume of current tests — I’m hearing up to 10k/day each — but it is very inexpensive. The FDA is set to approve. There’s a catch — some of the big money making labs can’t make as much money and they don’t like it. If this turns out to be true, I will name names and they can defend themselves. The big labs are now going slower not faster while Trump hollers to open the country.


So here’s a fact that will stun you. It turns out most tests are being done on whiter and richer populations. And those that need the most tests are, yes, poorer populations and people of color. The more tests we get, the more they will go to people who don’t need them.


Now for the antibody tests which are supposed to tell you if you have immunity. The good news is if the test indicates you don’t have immunity, it’s probably right. But about half the people the test says have immunity actually don’t. There is an approved test that does better.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 20 2020 1:01 utc | 148

The researchers used the BioMedomics rapid diagnostic device, which has not yet been approved by the CDC and can false-positively react to other types of coronaviruses, but with an estimated accuracy of 90 percent, was still deemed reliable enough. Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 20 2020 0:30 utc | 141

A bit fishy. How do they know the "accuracy"? You would need some "gold standard" cases for which you know the answers. OTH, asymptomatic infections are a survival trait for viruses, so perhaps low-impact strains that cause similar anti-bodies already evolved.

Decent news from Poland: government "relaxed" lockdown, entry to forests and parks is allowed again. Covering of mouth and nose in public is obligatory, except for those working in agriculture. At least there will be no collapse there. No word if fishing is allowed again... that was very messy -- local police could fine people sitting with fishing rods on lake/river banks at their discretion. Presidential elections scheduled for May are not rescheduled, but it seems that it will be a postal vote. Will they microwave the ballots or cook the results?

Posted by: Piotr Berman | Apr 20 2020 1:07 utc | 149

What Pittsburgh 1918 teaches us about easing pandemic measures too soon
https://tinyurl.com/ybulo8dz

Tl:dr What it teaches is that it costs the economy to re-open too soon...

"Into October, health chief Davis was saying things like: 'What constitutes an epidemic is a matter of opinion.'”

Sounds a lot like the people here...


On October 29, not yet a month into the interventions, Babcock met Royer in person and pitched an end to the ban. To help the mayor’s case, a local coroner published a letter claiming to know “officially” that the outbreak was slowing. In fact, records show the city was only then nearing its peak rate of excess deaths. Higgins continues:

Pittsburgh officials, principally the mayor, wished to lift the ban before the state believed it advisable. The weeks-long fight that resulted undermined the already-weak epidemic-fighting measures.


The decision to cut things short may also have contributed to prolonging the epidemic. According to Higgins, Pittsburgh experienced “much higher than normal morbidity and mortality rates” for months after the restrictions were lifted. Its severe fall wave was followed by “stable but high infection rates, with flare-ups in February and March.” The epidemic didn’t end in full until May. Higgins concludes:

Pittsburgh’s leadership made decisions over the course of months that pushed the epidemic beyond even Philadelphia’s mortality rate and contributed to the longest outbreak during America’s influenza epidemic.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 20 2020 1:10 utc | 150

There is an article in today's Sunday Times attacking Boris Johnson for his failure to deal with the virus.
Tony Greenstein, the blogger, has the article and his own trenchant commentary on it.
http://azvsas.blogspot.com/

This piece at The Skwawkbox is one of a series covering the NHS, the virus and the Tories.
https://skwawkbox.org/2020/04/19/johnsons-lock-down-delay-likely-to-cause-more-than-60000-needless-deaths-study-finds/#comments

Posted by: bevin | Apr 20 2020 1:22 utc | 151

fairleft @144

I read the link. I think his information is a little dated.

It was written april 10th, there were 100,000 deaths at that time, 9 days later there are 165,000 deaths.

His selection of areas to study seems odd at best.

(Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland), three states (Louisiana, Michigan, and Washington), and one city (New York)

"Flattening the curve to avoid overwhelming the health system is conceptually sound—in theory," he wrote in a paper in March."

Again, a paper he wrote in march, before shit hit the fan.

He seems pretty dismissive of anything that doesn't align with his perception. All in all not very convincing.

Posted by: David F | Apr 20 2020 1:26 utc | 152

No country outside China has implemented a true quarantine (lockdown): most are just enforcing closure of non-essential businesses and rules of social distancing. It is a petit-bourgeois myth that true lockdowns are being enforced in the West:

Posted by: vk | Apr 20 2020 0:25 utc | 140

Not true. A lockdown means freedom of movement is curtailed and subject to fines or forceful quarantine. Considered drastic.

Just a sample freedom of movement restrictions:

UK is under lockdown. but you can exercise once per day. 4 days ago there is no exit plan for the lockdown. Pandexit.

France - in certain areas, you need forms to leave the house;

Russia - e-pass, Digital permits to be launched in Moscow during the lockdown "Moscow citizens can apply for a digital permit. Starting this Wednesday, 15 April 2020, everyone will be obliged to have a permit to move around Moscow and the Moscow region on either personal vehicles or public transport "; Worker’s digital permit; One-time trip permit to a healthcare facility; One-time trip permit for other purposes;

Canada - Intra provincial travel -eastern provinces:

Province of Quebec, Canada - northern areas under quarantine manned checkpoints and intra travel between provinces means 14 days house quarantine [btw, applicable to in-transit
travellers] You will be fined $750 if caught in violation. If you are over 70 yrs, you are not allowed to leave your house - to go to the pharmacy? oh! don't bother you will not be allowed in...get it delivered. Banking; only 2 persons allowed in the facility. Two out, two in.

Canada: upon entry of citizens, it's no longer voluntary but mandatory - "please provide the police with your written stay-at-home quarantine arrangements and if you can't a 14 day quarantine location will be provided for you."

There are other countries in the western hemisphere restricting movements. Essentially, "Under House Arrest" and not just closure of essential businesses.

Welcome to medical martial law.

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 20 2020 1:27 utc | 153

vk | Apr 20 2020 0:25 utc | 140

Where I live (Wisconsin) it is not really a "lock down", it is actually called a stay at home order, and compliance is voluntary. People are free to come and go as they please, and from what I have seen, those that chose to gather in large groups at the parks are left to do so. Plenty of people having small cook outs in their homes. (I personally think this is stupid do congregate in groups, but my point is nobody is stopping them from doing so).

A lot of non-essential businesses are closed, but there are a lot of businesses that most don't consider essential that remain open. Department stores, I saw a book store open the other day).

The parks are open (in fact the state has suspended any necessary passes to use the parks), I go for a bike ride or a walk every day that the weather is decent. Most people are practicing decent social distancing, and probably 30% are wearing masks.

Other than the financial insecurity from not working, I am more or less enjoying the time off. To call it a lock down, is a misnomer at best.

Posted by: David F | Apr 20 2020 1:39 utc | 154

Just wanted to share an update (see previous) on the visualization of the epidemiological curve:
Covid-19 progress on several countries (20-04-2020)

After a week looking at these visualizations, I find them apt to compare countries progress accounting for population size, the phase and magnitude of the epidemic "attack". On the other hand, due to increased noise of the daily deaths parameter (vs cumulative) they don't help much in identifying the impact of lockdown measures.

Update on observations:

- China (red):
no change (despite the significant deaths update days ago)

- Spain (light magenta) and Italy (orange):
Both in significant descent, Spain appears to achieve a better descent than Italy

- France (magenta), UK (grey):
France entering descent, UK levelling

- Germany (yellow):
Levelling

- Netherlands (ligh olive) and Belgium (brown):
Netherlands remains level, and Belgium is now levelling

- Switzerland (blue) and Portugal (lighter magenta):
Levelling

- Sweden (lighter olive):
Sweden appears levelling, but with wide oscilations

- Norway (lighter magenta) and Denmark (light green):
Both in consistent descent, Norway scored better against Denmark

- US (dark yellow):
No signs of slowing, still a way to go

- Brazil (grey):
Omitted in the graph, still ascending

- Iran (green):
Is now descending

Added:

- India (salmon):
Nearly same track China, but does look to be levelling

- Russia (cyan):
Same track as other >50Mpop, no signs of levelling

- Japan (green):
Begun in same track as >50Mpop, then levelled for a while (likely Olympics downplaying), and finally is rejoining its population size track, now in accelerated ascent catching up its real numbers

You can generate you own graph and filter for countries, here

Posted by: Vasco da Gama | Apr 20 2020 1:42 utc | 155

Likklemore | Apr 20 2020 1:27 utc | 155

See my response to vk just above this. That is not the case anywhere in the us that I am aware of. I think it should be in heavily populated areas, NYC, Chicago, LA, etc.

In places like that it is not possible for people to be out and about and still maintain social distancing. Most places in america outside of major cities it is possible to be out without close interaction with others.

I wonder if the countries you mentioned are as strict in all locations or just in the densely populated major cities.

Posted by: David F | Apr 20 2020 1:44 utc | 156

David F | Apr 20 2020 1:26 utc | 154

He and his colleagues analyzed ALL studies then available. That's the opposite of 'fishy'. And more recent data (Boston, Santa Clara County) consistently reaffirms his Stanford University and Uppsala University study's conclusions.

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 20 2020 1:44 utc | 157

I believe Mike Whitney's article is fair and praiseworthy.

It is a pity that nowadays almost all blogs are flooded with wanna-be epidemeology experts who can't get even the most basic facts correct.

For example, all those who are currently attacking the Swedish approach to Covid-19 fail to acknowledge that in Sweden it is not simply business as usual and that there are a whole suit of preventative measures in place. This includes people being advised to stay home and isolate if ill. People taking extreme precautionary measures to avoid infecting the elderly or the vulnerable. Major gatherings and crowds are banned. However, people can still enjoy simple pleasures in life such gathering in small groups and going about one's business without being harassed by the police.
What is happening in so-called democracies such as Britain, and France is a complete disgrace so far as unwarranted restriction of basic human liberties is concerned. (Not to mention the horrors enacted by tyrants like Orban in Hungary,Modi in India, Duarte in the Philapines etc etc.)

It's worth remembering that the Swedes also have excellent health care. Something which the great exceptional nation woefully lacks. That's why the U.S.A mortality statistics are sky rocketing. And will likely continue.Quite unlike Sweden.Simple fact: the exceptional nation cannot for it's "poor huddled masses".

In the Canadian province of British Columbia , where I live, we have adopted a model quite similar to Sweden's. Restrictions and precautions--but not authoritarianism. As of Aril 19,we have had a total of 1647 known cases in a population of over 5m--similar to that of all of Denmark. 987 have already recovered. Only 81 have died. The curve has been flattening here for quite some time.

Also note, that wherever you look--be it New York City , Sweden, Italy, or anywhere else--the demographics of the mortality is very similar. The overwhelming number of people dying are very elderly and have many accompanying health problems. That seems to confirm the Swedish approach which is to protect the elderly and vulnerable with special laser-like protective measures, not destroy the economy and civilization with sledge hammer approach.(Once again the exceptional nation and it's fervent neo-liberal U.K ally are utterly failing so far as caring for their elderly and vulnerable citizens.)

I'm glad that the Swedes have not followed the stampede mentality of the world's political elites. In a year's time when all the necessary evidence is gathered we can compare and decide which approach was best. Without that knowledge we may fail to prevent such fiascos in future.

Posted by: Dennis Brown | Apr 20 2020 1:45 utc | 158

Posted by: juliania | Apr 19 2020 21:48 utc | 108

Christos Voskrese! (Christ is Risen!)

Vaistinu Vaskrese!

Just a little remark that "Christ is Risen" does not quite capture the original vibe.
The original phrase is active, and the verb is in aorist so it is like: He (just) Did (It)!
It is not passive, like: He Is Done!

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 20 2020 1:47 utc | 159

Likklemore @ 155:

The lockdown situation in Australia varies from one state or territory to the next.

In some parts of Sydney, police and (in some inner-city areas) army personnel have been stopping drivers and questioning them as to why they are using the road.

Interstate road travel is also restricted though some states may be more lenient than others. Western Australia probably has the most stringent lockdown restrictions on travel in and out of the state.

Travellers returning to Australia must go into a 14-day quarantine in a hotel especially designated for the purpose and anyone who sneaks out during that period is jailed in Western Australia.In other states people breaking quarantine are fined instead.

The big news items here in Sydney are (a) what happens in New South Wales, Victoria and some other states when Easter school holidays end (Friday April 24) because the Federal and State governments can't agree on which age cohorts of high school and primary school students can return to school first, and (b) the national rugby league competition (the NSW / Queensland equivalent of the US National Football League competition; other Australian states play a different football code and have their own national competition) wanting to resume at the end of May in spite of NSW and Queensland state governments wanting to continue lockdown beyond that month.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 20 2020 1:49 utc | 160

fairleft@159

"It looked at eight countries (Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland), three states (Louisiana, Michigan, and Washington), and one city (New York) with at least 250 COVID-19 deaths and where there was an age breakdown."

The above is cut and pasted from the link you provided. It seems to contradict what you just posted.

Are you saying these were the only places that had the available information for him to analyze at that point in time.

Posted by: David F | Apr 20 2020 1:52 utc | 161

fairleft @148

What do you mean by "minimizing"? It's simply a fact ... [statistics!]

Wrong. We don't know how many of those who recovered, young and old, have lung scaring that can cause complications that lead to death later.

We also don't know if the virus remains in the body in some form. We've heard some reports of reappearance. For example, HPV (Human PapillomaVirus) can lead to various forms of cancer years later.

Lastly, we don't know that it will be possible to develop a long-lasting vaccine. That makes 'virus suppression' (defeating the virus instead of living with it) a worthy goal. But our capitalist asshats, focused on quarterly results, don't want to spend the money to do that. The deaths of thousands or tens of thousands every year is a price they are willing to pay to avoid even one more quarterly loss.

... there are (many?) more Americans with poor diets and health, greatly raising the % of vulnerable in the under-65s. But the world is not the US.

YES. USA's capitalist system has developed a sickcare system that maximizes profits, not health. This means USA is particularly vulnerable. But the pressure to "open" America is as great or greater then it is in Europe.

<> <> <> <> <> <>

We have been barraged by an astroturfed campaign to open the economy.

Why don't we see activists for changing the strategy to 'virus suppression'?

It's impossible not to notice that the current 'virus mitigation' strategy maximizes profits for Big Pharma.

The Open the Economy! push feels a lot like the trolls paid to deny climate change. Spreading FUD and statistics! with clever gotcha! arguments.

Not surprisingly, the astroturfing began after Trump started talking about opening the economy - which he did as soon as he got his Wall Street Bailout.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 20 2020 1:52 utc | 162

myself @163

Forgot to add that the data he used was only up until April 4th.

Posted by: David F | Apr 20 2020 1:57 utc | 163

Its getting to the point now where I will run into something so glaringly biased that I'll simply give up on reading entries here. This never used to happen.

Your comments on John Oxford are a perfect example of 'poisoning the well'. It's utterly irrelevant if his comments were used by a financial site (unless you're suggesting he was paid by them to do so). His opinions as an expert in his field still carry the same value, or lack thereof. This is exactly the tonal shift in the blog that I mentioned in my last comment, grasping at straws to support pre-established points of view. There's a long list of other medical professionals available at SWPR if you'd like to dedicate a post to going through each and finding reasons why their views are not a valid as other medical experts.

It's also abundantly clear that the UK is following the same system as the US, Italy and others and erroneously treating deaths with Corona as deaths from. This is not standard medical practice and cannot be used as the basis for an accurate comparison with other mortality stats. The problem is that this almost certainly is not a mistake. You have to be well aware of this commonly known fact and ignore it in order to play down Oxford's comments.

There are probably other things that would bother me just as much but for any who are interested in the situation in Japan, never give any credence to _anything_ posted by VK. It's always regurgitation of the laziest press reports on the situation and in no way reflects the actual situation on the ground. As an example, in the Western press you'll lately hear reports that someone suffering form Covid-19 was denied access to X number of hospitals and this is a sign that Japan's hospitals are overloaded and about to collapse.

This is a common problem in Japan at ANY time and something people with actual knowledge of the country would be aware of and totally unsurprised by. The system of emergency services is awful when it comes to coordinating sudden pickups and hospitals routinely refuse to take people in for random reasons. People who live here know that if you have a sudden problem its better, if you can, to travel yourself to an emergency center, in which case they have to treat you, rather than get an ambulance, which has to get permission. With Covid in play hospitals are being even more fussy than usual about who they should admit but its simple business-as-usual bureaucracy nonsense rather than a new problem (of course, there are media in Japan just as the West who will play up the drama of such things for 'clicks'). Do a search and take a look at the first Bloomberg article you see on the issue and they point out that cases of ambulance tennis this year are an increase from 700 last year to 900. A problem but like most of those in Japan caused by overreaction to Covid not its actual medical effects.

Deaths in Japan hit a high of 17 in recent days (which probably made people like VK salivate) but have dropped a little since and the average daily mortality (almost entirely especially vulnerable very elderly people) is still tiny compared to those reported by other countries. Even if you only count 1/8 of the figures of the US, UK, etc. Japan is still far, far lower. It may still get worse and Japan (Tokyo especially) might have that long-predicted explosion of deaths but it hasn't happened yet and a rising number of 'identified infections' (as long as the deaths don't increase at an equal of greater rate) doesn't give any reason for significant concern. If even 5% of the greater Tokyo region was infected you could eventually see the 'case count' rise to 1.5 million people but if those people are only mildly affected, or asymptomatic, it would only suggest the impact was less than originally thought. The key benchmark will be May and whether the infection follows seasonal trends or persists outside the typical respiratory infection season. The possible collapse of medical services here is precisely because of Covid fear-mongering and over-reacting to even mild cases. The amount of medical staff, resources and time given to the problem is way out of proportion to the danger it currently represents and now we're going to see the knock on effect of people dying due to failure to receive treatment for other illnesses which will almost certainly push up mortality levels far higher than actual pneumonia deaths. When you see articles claiming "We warned you, and now look, Japan's medical system is under strain" make sure you ask precisely 'why' it's under such strain.

Posted by: Glagaire | Apr 20 2020 2:06 utc | 164

good name for you - so sad...

@ david f.... same deal here on vancouver island - plenty of freedom to do whatever and the ferries are still running and etc. etc... hey you are in wisconsin... clyde stubblefield was living in madison before he passed away.. do you know who that is?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STrA4iREipI

Posted by: james | Apr 20 2020 2:20 utc | 165

Posted by: Dennis Brown | Apr 20 2020 1:45 utc

Sweden is getting some criticizing, only Swedish authorities could evaluate their risk, but it is beyond doubt they took, and are taking* a greater risk than more strict countries. Portugal is for some weeks now around half ICU capacity, had its peak 2 weeks into lockdown around 2/3 capacity. No one knows yet how the pandemic will progress from here. One of my fears is indeed that instead of observing significant descents in daily deaths overall we might see too slow descents, maintaining the pressure for months on the Health Systems. Countries achieving consistent descent phase, proving their approaches were apt, are very few apart yet to advance advice, much less 4 or 6 weeks ago when hardly any country had shown a way.

*Their daily deaths oscillations are very erratic comparing with other countries, making authorities job harder in taking the pulse at the pandemic, this might be a negative side effect of their riskier approach.

Posted by: Vasco da Gama | Apr 20 2020 2:25 utc | 166

Glagaire @167: ... erroneously treating deaths with Corona as deaths from.

Your rant is built on a specious complaint.

According to your way of thinking, there would be NO deaths from Corona because what kills people is complications from Corona, not the virus itself.

Something like saying there are no deaths from falling (because it's the impact that kills).

<> <> <> <>

PS Ironically, in January the Chinese were attacked viciously for labeling deaths as being caused by "pneumonia" instead of the virus. It was claimed that they were hiding a pandemic.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 20 2020 2:27 utc | 167

james | Apr 20 2020 2:20 utc | 170

I did not know who he was, but of course have heard his music often, at least with james brown.

Vancouver island. Nice! I lived in seattle for about 12 years until a few years ago. Today I went to the arboretum and was hiking around in the woods, thinking how nice it was, but also thinking how much better the pacnw is. I used to mountain climb and backpack, A LOT! I really miss it. Just as well, I am getting to old for it anyway. The old knees aren't what they used to be.

Posted by: David F | Apr 20 2020 2:33 utc | 168

@ 167 glasgaire... maybe you can tell us what you think of the question b asks here - " Should one really use paid PR posts on a PR company's website to judge if some 'panic' about an epidemic is justified?" this is the quote from dr. oxford that off guardian used in their article... the actual blog post from novus communications website is -here..

personally i think it is quite relevant his comments on a public relations blog are picked up and obviously he was paid to make them... you seem confused about all this..

Posted by: james | Apr 20 2020 2:35 utc | 169

Posted by: So sad | Apr 20 2020 2:13 utc | 169

Earmark for deletion and banned. Bye

Posted by: JC | Apr 20 2020 2:35 utc | 170

How in the world can you use the UK numbers to justify anything? Same with any numbers from the US. Both countries health agencies have admitted and MANDATED that the protocol reportage for death certificates are now to be different. Altered from the way they have been doing these protocols for the last few decades just in this last month. And specifically mentioning that with these changes a certain viral contagion would be "presumed" (their word not mine) to be the causal agent in cases that would otherwise be listed differently. This is just a coincidence? You have to suspend all critical thinking skills to believe this.

For but one example, as you are hearing of the "horrid" conditions in NYC keep in mind that in NYC alone there is a death every 9.1 minutes in the “best” of times.

Now over the last two weeks, the city’s fire officials said more than 2,192 New York City residents died in their homes, compared to 453 during the same time period last year. On average there are 25 deaths in home per week in NYC- Tuesday, April 7th for example, there was 256. The reason? People are afraid to go to the hospitals, cardiologists are confirming this, lest they get infected with the “killer virus.” This means when they are in the early stages of cardiac arrest, for example, they stay at home and some don’t make it.

NYC officials stated that they WILL NOT be conducting tests on these at home deaths nor will they be doing any diagnostics on the cadavers.

NYC officials also confirmed that they will begin to count suspected COVID-19 deaths in addition to cases confirmed by a laboratory.

Stephanie Buhle, a spokeswoman for the New York City’s Health Department, confirmed the change in protocol.

“The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (OCME) and the NYC Health Department are working together to include into their reports deaths that may be linked to COVID but not lab confirmed that occur at home.”

NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio in his infinite wisdom acknowledged that the vast majority of deaths taking place at home were likely also due to COVID-19. No tests, no diagnosis but the mayor with his crystal ball stated:

“We do want to know the truth about every death at home, but it’s safe to assume that the vast majority are coronavirus related.”

That’s his exact quote.

What will this do to the COVID death count? What will this also do to the excess mortality rate as people are fearful of getting immediate treatment for very serious life or death conditions?

Posted by: Allen | Apr 20 2020 2:42 utc | 171

@likklemore. Still stuck in Morocco in complete lockdown. Masks mandatory, inter-city travel shut. Cops at checkpoints ask for your signed autorisation to go to A-food market or B-pharmacy, the only outlets open.
The Kingdom has extended the state of Emergency for another 30 days effective tomorrow and throughout the holy month of Ramadan. Oh and nobody fucks around with Royal decrees..

Posted by: Lozion | Apr 20 2020 2:42 utc | 172

@ 167 glasgaire... the other thing i would like to challenge - as jackrabbit has - is this constant mantra about these deaths aren't covid 19, but they are being tallied wrongly and etc. etc... a poster named Antoinetta III @ 65 gave a very good analogy that i would be curious for your feedback on this analogy... this to my mind puts the lie to all of the talk about these deaths not being covid 19, but other health issues... here analogy is immediately below..

Let us say that your house catches fire. You call the Fire Department. They come out and extinguish the blaze before it starts to engulf the building. Then you walk through the house and find that the water damage is maybe ten times greater than the damage caused by the fire itself.

Are you suggesting that NOT calling the Fire Department is a serious option?

Antoinetta III"

@ 173 david f... i must be younger then you! i am still doing what you would like to be doing... i went for a beautiful walk in the forest today for an hour and a half.. we are having fantastic weather for this time of year - summerlike... i am sure it is nice where you are too! i was thru wisconsin in 1991 or 1992- can't remember exact dates...

Posted by: james | Apr 20 2020 2:43 utc | 173

The Roach Motel at the End of the Universe

Posted by: blues | Apr 20 2020 2:50 utc | 174

Spread, hospitalization and mortality of covid are extremely specific. Demographics, pop density, chronic illness, temp, obesity, hypertension, etc all seem to matter.

Sweden has almost 1500 deaths out of about 10 million persons. Lombardy has 12,000 also with about 10 million. The swedes are arguing that the numbers will look very similar in the end. They could be right. The curve might be different but the end result will be the same. We will see in a year but ill argue that the numbers are heavily dependent on specifics and not lockdown or not and especially on how well they shield the vulnerable.

No precautions were taken to protect nursing homes in sweden until it was too late. 1/3 have cases now. Swedish nursing homes are larger (around 4 times) compared to norway. Sweden has roughly twice the obesity (21%] compared to 9.5% in Denmark and 44% of Swedes are overweight. Studies of deceased in US determined obesity to be the largest factor (outside of age) in covid mortality. Norway is similar to sweden in denmark. Nursing homes are frequently, proving to be slaughter houses in “the west.”

Its worth pointing out that the goal of the lockdown was to alleviate stress on the med system. Sweden ranks well in hospital beds per pop so those shortages may not be an issue there but the model cant necessarily be copied elsewhere.

NYC, Lombardy and Madrid all had high number of deaths. All had lockdowns. Its really the specificity that matters here.

Posted by: Alaric | Apr 20 2020 3:12 utc | 175

We need answers that can be confirmed. First who invented this virus.. who let it out of its cage, ... who thought it necessary for one nation to use bio weapons against another nation, can the leaders who approve bio-crimes against humanity be personally identified? why is biotechnology a state secret, how much money is budgeted by each nation in the NSS to crimes against weapons? Be specific please.

can't say screw the economy loud enough. get off your knees and stop swallowing. by: jason @ 7 <=agree.

Derp @16 <=welcome new Mr. Derp? Explain why it is that cities and places that drink water produced by sewer water recycling systems experience high infection numbers? Are these sewer/water mixing systems being used to bring about community immunity?

D/n use invasive ventilation to treat critical Covid19 patients because its not ARDS but oxygen deficiency/diffusion that needs treatment https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Roberto @133.. right on man.. evidence is coming in to suggest four different labs responsible for producing and releasing 4 different strains of Corvid 19, at the same time, in different places, so ==>all Covid19 may not be the same..?

by: vk @ 117 200 tested one in three in Boston already have Covid-19 antibodies, so what, Ab not the problem? <=tested for what, antibodies are not the threat, heme or other 02/C02 modification is the threat see also Likklemore @ 141.. 144 we don't need experts we need data B has time and again shown that experts only sometimes right. Hack @145 says triple test <=but again what are you testing? its not the antibody but the heme 02/C02 modification that is the cause of organ destructive oxygen deprivation. Hack @147 suggest independent air conditioning systems might be a good idea. <=I agree.

I agree with many on this list B has been compromised or is no longer hosting this list

Posted by: snake | Apr 20 2020 3:25 utc | 176

People who are dismissive of those of us wishing to distinguish between death "with Covid-19" and "death because of Covid-19"ought to pause and give thought to a recent New York Times report that 39 poor seniors were found dead in a 150-bed "nursing home"in Montreal. The facility owned ,as part of chain, by a Quebec Real Estate company, had been abandoned by staff, for fear of spreading, contacting the virus.The victims were left for days, dehydrated, starving, with shit in their diapers.Indeed,some of those that did not die were diagnosed with Covid-19. But could anyone honestly believe that the cause of death in this case was the virus and simply move on? Looks to me like cause of death was the callous way seniors--the main victims of Covid-19 around the globe--are warehoused so abysmally in our esteemed capitalist, neo-liberal societies.

I say all this despite posting earlier this evening that Canada , generally speaking has done reasonably well given it's fairly decent health care system in protecting most of its citizens. But we are not doing enough for our seniors! I fear that this sort of scenario is playing out all over the world. And that those wanting prolong the lock-down pending a vaccine, that may or may not work, at some time in the distant future are overlooking the potential for other such tragedies. I believe this is what those more sane and rational experts who are warning about when they suggest panic over the virus may be worse that the virus itself

Posted by: Dennis Brown | Apr 20 2020 3:27 utc | 177

Antibodies mean absolutely nothing, now. Stop talking about them, and all you morons talking about "herd immunity" should slice off your tongues and go cry in the corner.

The 1918 flu ran across the planet in four (!) waves. By the time this virus travels through India, and then China (for the 2nd time), it may well be so entirely mutated that it ravenously reinfects the weakened bodies of those who suffered it the first time around.

This outcome is what we are fighting, now.

As b has so ably indicated, the ONLY measure that is important right now is excess deaths. People need to stay in place until the bug retreats.

And all you Off-Guardian nutjobs need to understand that you're being led around on a leash by the self-same intelligence agencies you claim to abhor. No, the lockdown will not be permanent--the forces of capital are already squirming under the limits currently in place, pushing the masses to rise up and violate the quarantines--but yes, it is necessary. Grow up, children, and remember that the millions who died in 1918 died in the summer--and were young, in their 20s and 30s.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Apr 20 2020 3:30 utc | 178

Allen | Apr 20 2020 2:42 utc | 176

Glagaire | Apr 20 2020 2:06 utc | 167

You guys, and others making the same or similarly ridiculous arguments (freedum, starvashun, NWO, etc.), are getting tiresome.

In an emergency you act on the info you have to the best of your abilities.

As bemildered said in a previous thread:

"But what that means is you have to assume the worst, or something close to it, or risk much bigger losses."

As walter explained aptly in a previous thread:

"It is impossible to act with 100% certainty, but act you must, so you act to the best of your ability with what information you have and hope you don't stub your toe." (This is a butchered summary/paraphrase of a great analogy from him. Sorry, walter).

Prudence is the word of the month!

Sorry if you guys don't like that, but acting like children throwing a tantrum because you aren't getting your way, isn't going to change anything, this is the reality we face.

And as a wise person once said, "Don't wrestle with pigs, you just get dirty, and the pigs like it."

Or much cruder, but way funnier (posted by someone else is a previous thread), "Arguing on the internet is like competing in the special olympics, even if you win, you are still retarded."

On that note, I personally am going to just start ignoring ignorant, unconstructive posts. Plenty of others here who have useful, constructive, or wise things to say.

Posted by: David F | Apr 20 2020 3:32 utc | 179

james | Apr 20 2020 2:43 utc | 178

I had noticed the nice weather, I still read the seattle times online most days.

Posted by: David F | Apr 20 2020 3:33 utc | 180

@ So sad

If it’s an attack, it’s an open question of whodunnit. Definitely doesn’t help China. Doesn’t necessarily help USA either.

But, more importantly, what’s wrong with you? Apologize and explain yourself or go away permanently.

Posted by: oglalla | Apr 20 2020 3:36 utc | 181

Richard Steven Hack #146

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 20 2020 0:46 utc | 144 Read Ioannidis, everyone, and calm down:

As I said before, he needs to get out of his office and talk to the doctors on the front lines. If he doesn't, he's an idiot talking from an ivory tower - or he has an agenda. Do you know what his agenda is?

Maybe his agenda is encapsulated here:

#FireFauci Should be the Rallying Cry for a Generation

But then maybe not. Ioannidis could be a fine scientist with a clear comprehension of the trajectory of viral outbreaks. Perhaps there is room for the meeting of minds of the risk assessment science and the epidemiologists but I believe they have been in collaboration for many decades and have a sense of each others methodologies.

There is always the possibility that the political sense of risk management is dramatically different from the sense that Risk scientists and Epidemiological scientists possess.

I note this is a Presidential election year where the choice might be driven by any one of the following each with a weighting that a political machine might attribute:
Get the deaths over with asap
Get the economy up and running asap
Blame the 'other' country (it worked for the dems and Clinton)
Blame Fauci / epidemiology / WHO / DHHS / Bill Gates
Reinstate TR Captain who 'saved' his crew in defiance of the Navy Brass (as metaphore for self)
What could Biden do or say that would be of any comprehensible value to anyone but Trump
Smash the DNC as they already look like imbeciles
Go for a majority in both houses and to hell with the human cost
Do nothing and keep up the shutdown gives the democrazies more scope to attack

Supposedly someone in the DNC machinery has a strategy but I see it isn't Bernie Sanders.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 20 2020 3:40 utc | 182

Posted by: Pft | Apr 19 2020 21:09 utc | 99

I live in Taiwan and I know for a fact that this entire post is a flat-out lie. Tens of thousands of people were forcibly quarantined for the last three weeks, as well as entire sections of cities, based solely on whether they had traveled to districts in areas of Taiwan's largest cities. The quarantines were enforced with cel-phone apps that used GPS to confirm if the person in question was at home, doubled up with 4 phone calls a day to confirm of the person was near their phone or not.

Oft clearly either doesn't live on Taiwan or cannot access the local news, because this is pretty much all anyone has been talking about for the last month. In addition, social distancing is being enforced in all markets (and yes, we have the "wrt" ones here, too, except we call them "traditional," while the "dry" ones are called either "grain" or "North-Soth Goods", so all you fools slandering "went markets" should also do us all a favor by cutting out your tongues), convenience stores, etc. All citizens were asked by the government to stay at home, the last 2 weekends. Masks are mandatory on all public transportation and anywhere food is purchased. Etc.

Oft is just wrong--completely and totally wrong.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Apr 20 2020 3:41 utc | 183

(Pleases delete the previous post, b)


osted by: Pft | Apr 19 2020 21:09 utc | 99

I live in Taiwan and I know for a fact that this entire post is a flat-out lie. Tens, perhaps hundreds of thousands of people were forcibly quarantined for the last three weeks after traveling, as well as entire sections of cities, based solely on whether they had traveled to districts in areas of Taiwan's largest cities or if there were confirmed cases in their neighborhood. The quarantines were enforced with cel-phone apps that used GPS to confirm if the person in question was at home, doubled up with 4 phone calls a day to confirm of the person was near their phone or not.

Pft clearly either doesn't live on Taiwan or cannot access the local news (I.e.: doesn'tspeak or read Chinese), because this is pretty much all anyone has been talking about for the last month. In addition, social distancing is being enforced in all markets (and yes, we have the "wet" ones here, too, except we call them "traditional," while the "dry" ones are called either "grain" or "North-South Goods", so all you fools slandering "wet markets" should also do us all a favor by cutting out your tongues), convenience stores, etc. All citizens were asked by the government to stay at home, the last 2 weekends. Masks are mandatory on all public transportation and anywhere food is purchased. Etc.

Pft is just wrong--completely and totally wrong.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Apr 20 2020 3:46 utc | 184

james 178

The putting out the house fire and water damage is a good analogy.

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2020 3:48 utc | 185

snake #181

I agree with many on this list B has been compromised or is no longer hosting this list

I totally disagree snake.

b has posted often enough here to enable us all to read what his position is re the virus and what he considers the best response. We can disagree and make a sensible case. I haven't read all the posts he has kicked off but I trust he has acted in good faith (and likely sometimes in bad temperament) with some persistent fact free or rabid ranting posters. Hooray.

I appreciate NOT having to wade through a sea of trash to catch a good wave now and then. I appreciate many of the posts here and have no need to subscribe to more conspiracy theories than a speakeasy can stand. It is clear that I don't buy into the fear and loathing to the same extent as b but I try and justify my position occasionally and also post the odd contrary link as it may have merit. I wont always argue a case for or against any position but I wont rant at you all (well not too often) :))

All that said.... I am fascinated by the wide deviance in nations decision making and look forward to participating in further post mortem analysis. Pun intended.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 20 2020 3:52 utc | 186

@Passer by #72
Sweden's performance is certainly worse than any other country in Asia, but it is notably better than the much larger European nations it shares Schengen visa coverage with.
More to the point: Sweden has no lockdown but has a fraction of the deaths being seen in most of its Schengen counterparts except for Germany.
The key point is that Sweden has done no lockdown whereas all of the nations "ahead" of it, mortality wise, have.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 20 2020 3:53 utc | 187

Ah, yeah, 2 other things: schools shut down here for 6 weeks, and if you get caught breaking quarantine (still in place for some areas, but likely lifted soon) you're fined up to US$30,000. Also, ALL public hospitality and service venues were taking temperatures at the doors for about three weeks. It's slacking off, now, because the government is trumpeting its "success" in "beating" this thing, but so far every time it has declared zero new cases it has been only a day later it discovered more new cases.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Apr 20 2020 3:54 utc | 188

@Richard Steven Hack #128
Perhaps. Note that Europe's mortality continues to climb, also my numbers cover New York State - which has 19.44 million people - vs. just New York city.
The scariest part about the ongoing Spain and Italy mortality is that it continues to increase by sizable numbers - literally weeks after lockdowns and what not. The daily numbers are falling but not by enormous degree.
Italy first started lockdowns in February, expanded to the entire country on March 9 and are still ongoing.
New York's lockdown started 2 weeks later - so that fact that Italy's overall nCOV mortality continues to increase (as is Spain's) makes it seem unlikely that there will be significant tapering off.
Which could drive the NY mortality to really big numbers...2x or more "normal" mortality over multiple months.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 20 2020 4:00 utc | 189

A calm and measured suggested for the government on how to make the bailout a slightly more equitable solution from Vic

Yes, there are some people here that actually are PISSED OFF by the criminal bastards using the government to steal everything and destroy the few remaining liberties that are left over from the endless Patriot Acts etc etc.

F**king 81% of the TRILLION$$ are going to the 4 largest banks to cover their investment losses in FRACKING, DERIVATIVES, SHORTING GOLD, etc etc etc.
listen to Michael Hudson and Max Keiser discuss the bailout of the big banks

Posted by: Perimetr | Apr 20 2020 4:04 utc | 190


"China Outraged After Largest German Newspaper Accuses Beijing Of "Exporting" Coronavirus Pandemic, Demands €149 Billion In Damages"

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-outraged-after-largest-german-newspaper-accuses-beijing-starting-coronavirus

Another ZeroHedge anti-China article and like to see Xi Jinping shut off Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes - immediate Germany's economy down the drain - another Trump's stool pigeon MGGA (Make Germany Great Again)

Posted by: JC | Apr 20 2020 4:04 utc | 191

David F | Apr 20 2020 1:52 utc | 163

As with any scientific-method based survey, they reviewed all available data, with a few sensible restrictions:

"ELIGIBLE DATA: Countries and US states or major cities with at least 250 COVID-19 deaths as of 4/4/2020 and with information available on death counts according to age strata, allowing to calculate the number of deaths in people with age <65. Data were available for Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland, as well as Louisiana, Michigan, Washington states and New York City as of April 4, 2020."

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 20 2020 4:07 utc | 192

@ Lozion 177

Masks are now mandatory for all passengers on airlines entering Canada. Happy you are safe. Stay Healthy and be prepared to hunker down over the next 8 months.

That we are living in interesting times is an understatement. Surreal. Unprecedented. Somedays we ask ourselves, is this a mirror of Alice in la-la-land? Am I the only one on earth? You can drive for 90 Kms and not encounter another vehicle!!

COVID-19 is a brutal virus - out of many and on a gallop. Here is an interesting interactive site in collaboration with GISAID - by country: sate/province/city/borough.

Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus - Global subsampling compiles pathogen genome data, the pathogen evolution and epidemic spread that virologists, epidemiologists, public health officials, and community scientists and others are following.
At this hr showing 4543 of 4543 genomes sampled between December 2019 and 17 April 2020.

Sobering.

Posted by: Likklemore | Apr 20 2020 4:08 utc | 193


Posted by: Dennis Brown | Apr 20 2020 3:27 utc | 182


"I say all this despite posting earlier this evening that Canada , generally speaking has done reasonably well given it's fairly decent health care system in protecting most of its citizens. But we are not doing enough for our seniors!"

Most of the rest of the world care for their seniors by either hiring a live-at-home nurse, or by living with/near them.

It's pretty much only North America and the UK (western Europe?) where Seniors are warehoused in corporate dormitories.

Posted by: Pacifica Advocate | Apr 20 2020 4:08 utc | 194

If it really does all go sideways, please contact me 'blues' at"

robertkj --- a+ -- fastmail.fm

I have huge resources!

Posted by: blues | Apr 20 2020 4:14 utc | 195

By this research, pread may be a lot faster and harder to control in populations or cultures with many domestic cats.

"SARS-CoV-2 is thought to have originated in bats; however, the intermediate animal sources of the virus are completely unknown. Here, we investigated the susceptibility of ferrets and animals in close contact with humans to SARS-CoV-2. We found that SARS-CoV-2 replicates poorly in dogs, pigs, chickens, and ducks, but efficiently in ferrets and cats. We found that the virus transmits in cats via respiratory droplets.'
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.015347v1.full

Posted by: Peter AU1 | Apr 20 2020 4:20 utc | 196

@uncle tungsten | Apr 19 2020 21:16 utc | 101
Agreed. In reality I don't think the situation is much different in Norway.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 20 2020 4:23 utc | 197

There's a descent into hysteria and anger here. You all _really_ need to read that John Ioannidis article I posted above. He's not an "Off-Guardian nut job." He's a professor of epidemiology at Stanford University. He and other experts reviewed all the currently available data (with some common-sense restrictions) and made a report I've also linked to. The report indicates that Covid-19 is not very dangerous to under-65s in good health, with possible exception of people in a horrible health care situation.

As for dying 'from' rather than 'with', that's also not some wacky theory pushed by some "Off-Guardian nut job." No, it's promoted by Oxford University, _that_ Oxford University, and I've cited their report repeatedly. Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates, is from the The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford. The report states, emphasis in original:

"Recording the numbers of those who die with Coronavirus will inflate the CFR as opposed to those that died from Coronavirus, which will deflate the CFR."

The report later adds: "It is now essential to understand whether individuals are dying with or from the disease. Understanding this issue is critical. If, for instance, 80% of those over 80 die with the disease then the CFR  would be near 3% in this age group as opposed to 15%. Cause of death information from death certificates is often inaccurate and incomplete, particularly for conditions such as pneumonia. These factors would act to lower the IFR."

Now, these Stanford and Oxford University epidemiologists might be wrong. Or they might be right. Still much uncertainty. But treating the people you disagree with in _this_ context as conspiracy-addled nut cases tells me that you have an excessive commitment to 'winning' and not to getting this thing right.

Posted by: fairleft | Apr 20 2020 4:37 utc | 198

Progression rates do not appear to be different in Sweden than in a bunch of other countries that have shut down their economies.

To see the Sweden line, hover your mouse over the caption "Europe" in the top right hand corner of the second chart from the top.

How rapidly have deaths increased in countries

Posted by: guidoamm | Apr 20 2020 4:50 utc | 199

Peter AU 1 @ 201:

Cats are prone to coronavirus infections. Symptoms of being infected with feline coronavirus appear very similar to those of COVID-19 and individual cats can be carrying antibodies to their coronavirus while asymptomatic. Likewise the coronavirus is shed in cats' faeces, similar to how the SARS-CoV-2 can be shed in human faeces.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 20 2020 4:52 utc | 200

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