Another angle in your post is the interesting role of "enlightened" capitalists -- the Krafts, Bill Gates, and soon to be others.

They are trying to fill the chasm in infrastructure, supplies and social cohesion created by the capitalist state and private capital.

Some of their efforts might pan out and be useful.

But they represent the wrong politics.

The crisis is not just about a virus and the lack of a medical cure; it is systemic: the social, political and economic order of America is institutionally and culturally unable to mobilize for virus prevention and suppression.

It literally takes a peoples' war. China wasn't lying.

And the billionaire philanthropists actually don't want us to think and act that way. Don't praise them. They want us to return to the old normal of grotesque neoliberal capitalism that made them rich beyond words.

Living in a quiet Boston suburb, I can see this clearly. The poor are still going out to work, dying, or suffering at home. The rich are off to the Cape, having food deliveries from uninsured, precarious workers, and have no concept of a collective effort as they continue to work for themselves from home.

There is no peak coming soon any time soon.

Posted by: Prof K | Apr 5 2020 14:55 utc | 1

AP and Washington Post, those bastions of honest reporting independently owned and operated come up with more finger pointing.

Posted by: dltravers | Apr 5 2020 14:55 utc | 2

Took a drive with Mother Bear just to get the hell out of the house, which can be at times far worse than being outside. Drove through the Adirondack, not far from home, just to see it beauties. Found all the lovely towns shut tighter than a drum. All restaurants and business establishment closed, and only saw a handful of people in the streets of these tiny towns. My heart goes to those who have lost those to this nasty flu, but also to those who have lost and will lose everything by this shutdown. How will they recover? Where will they go? Who will take care of them and their families? Their fellow American? One who has hoarded everything, and not think of how it will effect those around them? The government? Whether it be democratic or Socialist, it is as good as those who run it. And how long will we keep this shutdown going? 4 or 5 or 6 months down the line? The rest of the year? Is it worth it to shut it at all? Good AND bad will suffer no matter what we do. Nature and her partner, Fate, will get us no matter what we do. Just seeing everything closed in those small towns just broke my heart.

Posted by: Jose Garcia | Apr 5 2020 14:58 utc | 3

Looks like I was right about Japan:

Tokyo's COVID-19 count continues to soar with 143 new cases

Remember that Japan can barely test 2,000 people per day.

Abe nears decision on emergency declaration as Tokyo coronavirus cases surge

Abe refused to declare emergency at April 1st (the first day of the Japanese fiscal year). Just four days later, he's reconsidering. This looks a lot like Boris Johnson and Donald Trump in the UK and the USA, respectively.

Japan's case is much more dangerous and complicated than South Korea's. South Korea immediately blocked the country from Chinese travellers as soon as it was warned by the Chinese government. As a result, it had only one cluster, from a Christian cult in a city that is not essential to the South Korean economy (Daegu). It was then able to lockdown Daegu and deal with the mini-clusters in Seul and the Incheon international airport.

From this geographical advantage Japan will not enjoy. It looks like the virus first entered the country right through Tokyo - probably by sea, as most clusters seem to be in the Minato region. It then spread west, down through Osaka. This is Japan's economic spine, the world's largest megalopolis - it simply can't be put to lockdown for even a day.

Initially (i.e. before the Olympics was officially postponed), the Japanese government was only talking about the second route, through Hokkaido (Japan's far-east). Hokkaido, however, has almost to none economic importance to the country, being sparsely populated. My theory is the Japanese government tried to hide the epidemic on the hope the Olympics would be realized on time.

Posted by: vk | Apr 5 2020 15:06 utc | 4

Hi,
I noticed with the latest worldometer figures for the UK that the death rate is running at about 10%. This is way higher than the usual 1-2%...
Any ideas?
Personally I think the UK has been caught completely unprepared for Covid19 and even now is scrabbling around trying to do what should have been done weeks ago...
Consequently the number of infections and corresponding morbidity is going to skyrocket, particularly among health staff.
UK media seems to be shy of asking pertinent questions and unseemingly defensive of that buffoon BoJo.
I would also be willing to bet real money that he's faking Corona and hiding from the sh*tstorm thats approaching...
I live in Vietnam and anti-corona measures have been ongoing since February (temperature screening and general education/advice. and of course facemasks). Only now have they moved to general movememnt restrictions.

Posted by: adamski | Apr 5 2020 15:08 utc | 5

Not sure what to make of this one..

Pneumonia deaths down.

Covid-19 deaths up.

Pneumonia and influenza survey from the CDC

Anyone in a position to plot this?

Data in csv format format CDC

Posted by: dltravers | Apr 5 2020 15:12 utc | 6

Forgot to post this interesting news:

U.S. doctor with 'flu' in Jan tests positive for COVID-19 antibody

According to said doctor's twitter account, he was sick at the beginning of January - long before the first official American case (January 20th). People commenting on his twitter also reported similar cases in the country.

This indicates the COVID-19 may have been spreading around the world much earlier. Wuhan may have been just the first hotspot, not the origin of the virus.

I believe the SARS CoV-2 evolved to its actual stage after being among humans for decades. Its cycle is too sophisticated, too well adapted to globalization, to have suddenly jumped from an animal to the human. The original ancestor certainly came from animals - that's already proven - but we still don't know the intermediaries between the bat and the actual form.

Posted by: vk | Apr 5 2020 15:14 utc | 7

@b

Congratulations on scooping the mainstream media by many weeks on so many matters.

People keep sending me articles that vaguely remind me of things I read weeks earlier, things that were discussed here long since. I don't feel superior, just sad that they've been so far behind the curve. But it's a very good thing indeed that my redneck and liberal friends on both ends of the delusion spectrum are finally getting to reality of the situation.

Posted by: Grieved | Apr 5 2020 15:17 utc | 8

@adamski #5
Testing numbers for France and UK are about the same - and are comparable to Italy, Spain, Belgium etc.
Which is to say, it seems likely the number of actual nCOV infected in the UK is much larger than the number of confirmed cases.
As for faking: the UK nCOV mortality rate is now 753/10M population - vs. say Italy (2527), Spain (2675), France (1161), Belgium (1269).
Doesn't look like faking in the sense of exaggeration.
The UK is on a trajectory that is quite steep - comparable to the 4 above, just skewed a few days later): Relative nCOV trajectories for different countries
Note the UK and US aren't "bending" hardly at all so far. Neither is France. Belgium, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands are bending, but they're already past the normal annual flu death rate.
What is the most interesting is that Sweden is on a similar trajectory - and they're not doing any lockdown...

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 5 2020 15:19 utc | 9

According to Chinese research, the COVID-19 virus is highly temperature sensitive. In the environment, it can last 2 weeks at 4 degrees centigrade, at which temperature it has the maximum activity, while at 70 degrees centigrade it can last only 5 minutes. At 22 degrees it can last up to 1 week, depending on what sort of surface it is on (longer on plastic or stainless steel, shorter on wood).

Also a doctor told me that in Italy and Spain to test for COVID they take swabs from the tip of the nose where it is cooler and the virus is more active. Whereas in warm countries they have to test using a swab right inside at the pharynx (very deep in the throat). In the whole of Africa there are only 7000 cases, and very few serious cases.

If you are in cold weather, if you keep warm, and keep your face and nose warm (and sinuses!) with a thick scarf over your face that will make the conditions less favourable for an infection. As for any elderly relatives, make sure they keep as warm as possible (better TOO warm). In elderly people the circulation is often not good and they are more prone to cold peripheries - eg nose - another reason why COVID-19 is especially a disease for the elderly.

Posted by: BM | Apr 5 2020 15:29 utc | 10

b,

Your Turkey seizing ventilators is not really accurate:
Headline (not the URL)→Turkey authorizes transfer of ventilators to Spain

Posted by: Blue Dotterel | Apr 5 2020 15:38 utc | 11

Not sure what to make of this one..
Pneumonia deaths down.
Covid-19 deaths up.
Posted by: dltravers | Apr 5 2020 15:12 utc | 6

Very simple. It's called massaging the data. It's what all the Western governments are doing with their covid data (although they don't all massage in the same way). They are well practiced at massaging data, after massaging financial and other data for so many decades.

Posted by: BM | Apr 5 2020 15:41 utc | 12

To follow up on Prof K's post, this pandemic will eventually pass, but what changes will it leave in its wake?
One of the points I keep trying to raise is that capitalism is not synonymous with a market based economy. Markets need money to circulate, but we tend to see it as the signal to extract from the noise of the economy, to save and store. Requiring ever more to be added and ever more metastatic ways to store what has been extracted. Resulting in the enormous speculative bubble currently consuming the actual economy.
While we see it as a form of commodity, money is a glorified voucher system and functions as a contract between the individual and the community. So to store the asset side, similar amounts of debt have to be generated. Apparently the most effective method is to squeeze money flowing through the real economy, requiring it to use that much more debt to function and putting all that surplus investment money back to work. The other obvious method is having the government borrow the surplus back out, rather than simply taxing it out. While it doesn't get any attention, the fact is the capital markets could not function, without the government siphoning up trillions in surplus money. The secret sauce of capitalism is that public debt backs private wealth.
The functionality of money is its fungibility. We own it like we own the section of road we are using, or the air and water passing through our bodies. It is a public utility and resource and needs to be treated as such. This isn't socialism. You can have the most expensive car on the road, but you still don't own the road. There is a need for both public and private functions in society and they need to be sorted out, not just pushed to one side, or the other.
There isn't the investment potential for everyone to save the notational value we all think we need for the future, but we do all save for many of the same reasons, from raising children to retirement, so if these could be invested in, organically, locally and communally, rather than everyone thinking their bank account is their personal economic umbilical cord, we would have stronger communities and healthier environments, as stores of value and not just resources to be mined.
Then banking would being an accounting system, not Fort Knox. Money is a lubricant, not a fuel.

Posted by: John Merryman | Apr 5 2020 15:47 utc | 13

thanks b.. i agree with @8 grieved.. you are doing great work here..

@ 1 prof k... on some level the billionaire philanthropists really irk me too.. i can't put my finger on it..

@ 10 bm - thanks for the article on temperature and survival rate of the virus..

Posted by: james | Apr 5 2020 15:56 utc | 14

Mitigation vs. Suppression

The West slow-walked a virus response to gin up an Emergency.

Now they're slow-walking a change in strategy to maximize profits to Big Pharma. And, if one is inclined to a darker view: to kill older people whose care is so expensive to the government (most are covered by government healthcare programs).

<> <> <> <> <>

Suppression: Test everyone so that those infected can get early treatment with inexpensive drugs.

The tools to do this have been available for more than 6 weeks:

1. Quick anti-body tests
2. hydroxyChloroquine drug regimen

• tonic water (containing quinine);

• Vitamin-D;
• Vitamin-C;
• Selenium.

A 'virus suppression' strategy allows the economy to return to normal asap. How many people will die because of the continuing delays in effectively fighting this pandemic?

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 5 2020 15:57 utc | 15

@John Merryman #14
I agree with what you say.
I would note that you need to address not just money, but credit.
Lastly, I would also note that monopoly or undue access to "lubricant" yields wealth and power - so it shouldn't be surprising that there are jackals in the mix.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 5 2020 16:27 utc | 16

@ 14 john merryman.. thanks... many good points in your commentary... another regular poster here psychohistorian makes similar comments...

ot - listening to a joyce moreno live recording some might like - brazilian singer from sao paolo.. used to sing with jobim many moons ago...it's in portuguese...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VUpdK9WqDc

Posted by: james | Apr 5 2020 16:32 utc | 17

Posted by: anony | Apr 5 2020 16:18 utc | 17

So who are all those sick people flooding hospitals in Italy Spain NY and elsewhere? One after another after another diagnosed with bilateral interstitial pneumonia? Bunch of delusional hypochondriacs with cold/flu? All those crying nurses and doctors begging people to stay home, those are just actors pulling pranks? China fought this tooth and nail, calling it a people's war, just for fun?
And, regarding the theory that the epidemic will wane as the weather gets sunnier. Yeah, sure. Hint for geographically challenged: check on the map where is Ecuador, if the name is not enough for you.

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 5 2020 16:42 utc | 18

As this is an open thread, I'll mention a Greek play that's risen to my thoughts lately with new meaning - Aeschylus's "Prometheus Bound". It hadn't seemed to fit with our old world, but is a good pivot to the new unforseeable at present one. I plan to use it as a meditation for when I feel overloaded by so much swirl of events - one attractive feature is that it is a very concise presentation, one act and only a few main characters. To give a short summary, it begins with Prometheus, a Titan who loves mankind, being chained, standing, to a rock in the Caucasus by an unwilling Hephaistos, another god, whilst being urged on by two of Zeus's demons, Might and Violence. (It's interesting that the latter demon doesn't say anything - one imagines he has plenty of threatening actions allowed him while the hammering in of chains is going on.)

The chorus, meanwhile is composed of daughters of Oceanus, who has a short series of speeches in support of Prometheus. Then comes Io, a cowhorned maiden harried by a gadfly. And last, Hermes, a final antagonist. And that's pretty much it.

'Enigmatic' is the word used to describe Aeschylus in the introduction by translator David Grene. I have also the Greek, and he's taken a few licenses with his translation, so I'm digging in. Just might be our experiences with the pandemic will open the play a bit more for me. I can already see that the contrast between a chained god and a mobile horned lady/animal whose name prefigures 'Ionian' and 'Bosporus'[cow's ford] have a greater attraction now than when as a student long ago I first encountered the ancient Greeks.

I'm enjoying myself, anyway. Mulling over the term 'lock down' enforced by a tyrant inimical to mankind. Interesting stuff!

Posted by: juliania | Apr 5 2020 16:43 utc | 19

RE: John Merryman | Apr 5 2020 15:47 utc | 14

You entirely miss the point that the "money" you describe is fiat currency, mostly in digital form, which is entirely under the control of the Central Banks that have the ability to create infinite amounts of it. Digital/paper fiat has no intrinsic value, it is fungible by decree, because governments require that you accept this "legal tender" for goods and services.

The ability to create infinite money provides those in charge with almost infinite power; digital fiat currency provides the banksters with the ability to manipulate/rig all markets, fund endless war (see All Wars are Bankers Wars), control the media and educational systems, etc etc. That is the hidden function of Central Banks. As a famous Rothschild once said, "Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws"

The COVID-19 pandemic very conveniently happened to come along at a time when the credit markets were imploding, requiring the exponential growth of the fiat currencies (which had reached the end of their always limited life-spans and had entered into a crack-up boom). What a great excuse to openly move into producing trillions and trillions of dollars (much, much more to come). In the US, the Treasury has essentially merged with the Federal Reserve; the "bail outs" will be used to provide endless interest free money to the banks, which will then loan the money to the small businesses (at 5.75% interest) being destroyed by the shutdowns. See, the system is working!

The banks HAD to move into an exponential growth phase of its currencies in order to prevent the collapse of the Western financial system. The growth of fiat/debt-based currency is now similar to the exponential growth of the coronavirus. This is a hyperinflationary event that will lead to the abandonment of the dollar as the global reserve currency.

Posted by: Perimetr | Apr 5 2020 16:47 utc | 20

@dltravers | Apr 5 2020 15:12 utc | 6

Not sure what to make of this one..

Pneumonia deaths down.

Covid-19 deaths up.

Posted by: Norwegian | Apr 5 2020 16:56 utc | 21

"US accused of seizing face mask shipments bound for Europe, Canada - DW"

The US is also demanding that Canada extradite Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou to the USA (on Trumped-up charges) in the name of "The Rule of Law".
I think it's time for Canada to send the nice lady home and resume good relations with China.

Posted by: Keith McClary | Apr 5 2020 16:58 utc | 22

hopehely @26

Actually, I think information_agent @21 might be correct, except with the misattribution being reversed from what that poster thinks. I would bet that coronavirus has been killing in the US for months, but those deaths have been misattributed to influenza and run-of-the-mill pneumonia. The deaths are only now being attributed to the novel coronavirus because for-real testing only started recently.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 5 2020 17:06 utc | 23

@William Gruff #32
Extremely unlikely.
New York has gone from 137 nCOV deaths per 10M on 3/26 to 2,129 nCOV deaths per 10M today. That's 265 deaths to 4159 in 10 days.
If nCOV was really circulating months ago - why is the progression jumping so high - only now?

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 5 2020 17:15 utc | 24

c1ue @33

The tail on an exponential curve can be long and thin. As well, there may be other factors that initially limited the spread of the virus like what BM reported @10. Was the autumn warm this year in Virginia and Maryland where the contagion most likely started if it is a domestic thing?

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 5 2020 17:24 utc | 25

BM @ 10

Interesting, I had a Chinese coworker show me some videos of autopsies from China on Covid patients. The lungs were full of mucus. He translated for me and they were saying that drinking very hot liquids helps to keep things in check if you are sick. Coffee, tea and the like.

What we would call anecdotal reports from experts.

Posted by: dltravers | Apr 5 2020 17:28 utc | 26

Posted by: Keith McClary | Apr 5 2020 16:58 utc | 29

"I think it's time for Canada to send the nice lady home and resume good relations with China."

Thanks Keith for your comments, did you know Cuomo, Governor of New York State thanks Huawei for the generous donation.

"....It is worth noting that Chinese company Huawei also appeared on the list. The list shows that Huawei donated 10,000 N95 masks, 20,000 protective clothing, 10,000 pairs of gloves and 50,000 goggles to New York State..."

I support Huawei, bought an unlocked Huawei Honor View V20 global model L29 smartphone from China as thanks to (mainlander) Chinese.

BTW, I'm in the USA overseas Chinese, ancestral home was Huanggang Hubei.

Posted by: JC | Apr 5 2020 17:28 utc | 27

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 5 2020 17:06 utc | 31

Just to remind you that this epidemic is not happening in the US only. Few other places are affected too, and that gives me confidence to say that it is HIGHLY LIKELY (tm) this shit is real.
I believe that a disease is going around, it is viral, contagious like cold but hits harder, and if I get it, it can make me very sick. Sick enough so I would have to go to hospital. And I HATE hospitals. Or I will be at home bed ridden for weeks sick like dog. I hate that too.
So, I play safe.
When I go out, I watch my hands to not touch my face, and when I come home I wash my hands straight away.
No more eating outside. I bring my food home, wash my hands and then eat. I also keep the safe distance from others and I am avoiding crowds as much as I can.

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 5 2020 17:31 utc | 28

I tend to dismiss ALL of Bill Gates' recent pandemic related public actions, statements (eg.: TED talks, Event 201 pro/con buzz, funding Covid vacccine factories (sheesh! There's been ~17 years of coronavirus vaccine r&d failures since cov-SARS popped up 2003 and cov-MERV in 2013) as just more PSYOPS distraction foisted upon the public by the "Intelligence Community", for their own purposes.

The B&M Gates Foundation was likely originally set up with some good intentions (to combat malaria and other Third World diseases), but probably mainly as a legal vehicle to shield some of his mega-wealth.

But then, after Gates got snared, perhaps in 2011? at one or more of the Intel community's "Epstein pedo-trap" blackmail factories, he became their bitch-tool for evermore.

That's just how they (whoever kept Epstein and his operations protected) roll.

And now Gates is their captive asset, and everything he says or does is according to the Invisible Hand's plans.

Posted by: gm | Apr 5 2020 17:35 utc | 29

@William Gruff #37
No, sorry, you're ignoring November, December, January and February. And the first 3 weeks of March.
These weren't autumn - they were winter. Secondly, this is a very long time period: 140+ days.
Why did New York jump in the last 10, if nCOV was circulating in October? The entire disease life cycle is 1 week to show symptoms, 2 weeks into the hospital, death anytime after 1st week up to 6 weeks.
If we have a 4 day doubling time, it only takes 80 days to go from 1 to 1 million. With New York, the likelihood of there being more than 1 initial spreader is very high - which drops the time to 1 million by weeks.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 5 2020 17:44 utc | 30

f 200,000 people die in the US with COVID-19 out of a population of 330 million people that is 0.06% of the population. That is to say a six hundredths of a percent chance of dying from the virus. Destroying the economy and losing our rights for a 0.06% chance of dying is not reasonable.

And worldwide, Covid-19 Worldwide deaths as of April 4th, 64,518 divided by 7,000,000,000 world population. = 9.21 millionths of one percent. Corona virus, Covid-19, is IMO an orchestrated hysteria.

Consider:
World Health Organization: Yearly Death Rate Comparisons
• Influenza (Various): 290 000 to 650 000 respiratory deaths
• Cholera: 21 000 to 143 000 deaths
• Malaria: 405 000 deaths (2018)
• Typhoid: 128 000 and 161 000 deaths.
• HIV-related causes: 770 000 deaths (2018)
• Measles: 140 000 people died (2018) – mostly children under the age of 5
• Pneumonia: 808 694 children deaths under 5 years in 2017.
• Drowning: 320 000 deaths
• Road Traffic Crashes: 1.35 million deaths

This is EVERY year.

Posted by: frances | Apr 5 2020 17:46 utc | 31

c1ue @44: "Why did New York jump in the last 10 [days]"

Exponential curves are like that.

Have they found patient 0 for New York yet?

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 5 2020 17:49 utc | 32

Here my Sunday rants...

With all the fake news I'm overwhelmed and often can't decide who telling the truth. I am convincing now the US of A is the most evil of them all especially those who promote freaking gods. Trump, I believe even before 2016 is unfit to be president and damn it people still believe his freaking MAGA.... we are going down the drain instead of draining the swamp..

"Democracy should be self-reflective and thoughtful. It requires education and an effort to seek the truth before casting a vote. Democracy does not work when catchy but over-simplistic slogans like “Five key demands, not one less” obfuscate the real issues and inhibit the ability to deal with nuance and complexity."

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3078248/radicals-have-put-hong-kongs-democratic-system-path-destruction-can

Socialism with Chinese Characteries

Posted by: JC | Apr 5 2020 17:56 utc | 33

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 5 2020 17:40 utc | 43

Yeah, I think the argument that the pandemic is just a hoax is getting to be harder to sell, but there are people still trying.

Posted by: hopehely | Apr 5 2020 18:02 utc | 34

JC @48: "...we are going down the drain instead of draining the swamp..."

Maybe The Swamp is much bigger than anyone expected? Doubtless Trump never realized how deep into America's soul that swamp extends, but maybe it goes from coast to coast?

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 5 2020 18:11 utc | 35

RE: gm | Apr 5 2020 17:35 utc | 41

EDIT:
This is just my personal opinion of course.

Posted by: gm | Apr 5 2020 18:12 utc | 36

The truth about the pandemic will probably be known in about 12 months time.

But what is real (particularly for Americans) is that huge numbers of people have lost their jobs, can't afford rent and facing destitution. There is no practical political support and opposition.

I am not saying that people shouldn't be concerned about their safety but locking yourself away and fretting about masks and getting infected by other people is a fundamental mistake at this point in time.

----

Sanders gave up against Clinton in 2016 and he gave up against Biden (?!?!) in 2020. The pandemic gave Sanders a third opportunity; opportunities are rare and you rarely get one, let alone three, but Sanders is throwing it all away (again). Sanders forgets that he is not where he is because of the Democratic Party, he is there because American people want real change. What is Sanders trying to do? Destroy his message, his reputation and the hope people placed in Sanders? Spend the rest of his life as a derided figure?

Posted by: ADKC | Apr 5 2020 18:31 utc | 37

Talking about COVID-19 denial...
DW News filed a weird report from Belarus which held a soccer-type match in a fairly crowded giant stadium. The Prez was one of the players and poo-poohs social distancing. City Life continues as normal with shops and restaurants open and enjoying good patronage.
HOWEVER...
Belarus' medicos are tearing their hair out as the number of hospital admissions threatens to overwhelm their capacity. The Prez has made it an offense for medics to whine to the Media IF it's something they haven't already whined about to the Prez...

Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Apr 5 2020 18:35 utc | 38

alright folks explain this one
Dr. Fauci in 2017: President Trump Will Be Challenged By a "Surprise Global Disease Outbreak" (VIDEO)
By Jim Hoft Published April 3, 2020 at 9:17pm

Posted by: snake | Apr 5 2020 19:04 utc | 39

@all - brushed a bit through the thread - comment numbering will be affected.

Posted by: b | Apr 5 2020 19:10 utc | 40

Has anyone seen this?
Under reported cases

It is saying that the virus deaths are almost certainly being under reported. I will admit that there are probably some cases being over reported, but when you combine the two the death counts are most likely higher than the official numbers.

Lots of people dont get tested after they die, partly due to lack of tests, partly due to other priorities (like trying to save the living).

I also noted that the official government line of possible deaths has risen again. Initially "possibly" 100k, maybe 200k; then "likely" 100k-200k and "only if we do everything exactly correctly"; now it "will be" 100k-240k. It feels to me that they are slowly walking that number up every few days.

Posted by: David F | Apr 5 2020 19:11 utc | 41

I am dismayed that there is so much equation of "person thinks critically" to "person thinks it's a hoax". There is much ado on this site about nuance, critical thinking, observation of complex situations/systems.

This is a corollary to "Just because you're paranoid..." We do have a very real, dangerous virus out there, but that does not prevent (in fact it probably encourages) the PTB to gin up as much FUD as they possibly can. At this moment, I see very little incentive for them to try to calm down the Proles.

Posted by: Dr Wellington Yueh | Apr 5 2020 19:18 utc | 42

ADKC 37
"But what is real (particularly for Americans) is that huge numbers of people have lost their jobs, can't afford rent and facing destitution. There is no practical political support and opposition.

I am not saying that people shouldn't be concerned about their safety but locking yourself away and fretting about masks and getting infected by other people is a fundamental mistake at this point in time."

Quite the opposite, read Tomas Pueyo

He has done a great job of documenting the economic effects of the spanish flu and it clearly shows that those cities that took early and decisive action faired far better than those who waited to take action.

I agree that people are hurting, I myself am one of them. The economic hit is here, the health hit is here as well, we are just going to have to suck it up. If we get the situation under control we can recover from a one time hit. If we go back to work to soon, we get hit a second time by both, it will be much harder to recover from the double whammy. I believe that the article from the FT b posted yesterday also supports the double whammy theory.

Posted by: David F | Apr 5 2020 19:20 utc | 43

The concern ought to be, and is in my neck of the woods, for the safety of others, which as I understand it will be compromised if I foolishly put myself in harm's way. One thing about us elders, even the so roundly castigated ones of US nationality, is that we can do without partying, and we are doing our best to remain cheerful when obeying the general rules not to be out in public any more than necessary.

I am sad that my children and grandchildren can't enjoy the flowerings in my garden, nor can I give them grandmotherly hugs at present. But I'm not going to complain about these restrictions because I think they help contain the outbreak. So far, as I am understanding it, my daughters place of work, which is a hospital, is not being overrun with virus sufferers - they can cope. That's the fundamental question for me. She is in harm's way and I love her; I am sticking to the regime because it is what I can do, for the good of all. So folk, even if it is possible for you to get out and about -- think twice about doing so now!!! You can mix and mingle only when it is safe to do so, and so far it isn't yet. There are other things you can do, and maybe one is not to clog the chat boards with half truths or attacks on other people. Be calm and supportive, and really, please stop saying bad things about the US. I know, there has been a time for that, but enough already! We have what we have, and we ordinary people are coping as best we may. My first post was an effort of that nature.

Thanks.

Posted by: juliania | Apr 5 2020 19:55 utc | 44

I will just add that it is my memory that after the polio epidemic was a good and hopeful time for countries in general. That is, we had set aside our grievances for a while, just soberly and thankfully appreciating what we had been through, mourning our dead, taking care of those afflicted by the disease, shoring up the values that had clarified during the stressful time, and we were kinder, much kinder, to one another as a result of it.

Just think of Dorothy in The Wizard of Oz - nothing simpler than that. She really discovers what?

That there's no place like home. Pretty simple. Something to look forward to. We need that.

Posted by: juliania | Apr 5 2020 20:00 utc | 45

Prof K @1

Totally agree with all but the last sentence - I don't disagree with the last sentence, just hope it's wrong.

Posted by: spudski | Apr 5 2020 20:00 utc | 46

@juliania | Apr 5 2020 20:00 utc | 45

"there's no place like home"

Posted by: pokums | Apr 5 2020 20:12 utc | 47

Posted by: pokums | Apr 5 2020 20:12 utc | 47

Excellent.

Posted by: acar burak | Apr 5 2020 20:17 utc | 48

A note on US politics - it's still an election year. The status quo represented by both of the major parties will continue as a fully dysfunctional regime, unless the people take it upon themselves to draft a non-aligned leadership from across the political spectrum to act as a third party with necessary intent to clear the rot.

As for Sanders, on March 2 - the day before Super Tuesday - the DNC's internal polling showed that Sanders was in position for big victories the next day that would leave him almost unassailable on the way to the nomination as presidential candidate. The DNC responded by orchestrating the stepping down of Buttgieg and Klobuchar and the coalescing of all "moderates" behind Biden. Voting totals on March 3 were also skewed, as exit polls revealed. Biden will not be the Dems presidential candidate; he was selected on March 2 to be a placeholder - with a more viable selection TBD. The original plan was to screw Sanders at the convention, but his popularity threatened to overwhelm that strategy. That lawmakers had already been briefed regarding expected coronavirus disasters ahead, and so part of the urgency on March 2 was to remove the candidate whose public health platform would find enormous resonance. The current two-party system is resistant and hostile to any reform. The unopposed bi-partisan move by the Congress to fully bail out corrupt banks and corporate interests with no accountability whatsoever represents a hugely consequential move towards a dictatorship led by those interests, if that's not already the case.

Posted by: jayc | Apr 5 2020 20:32 utc | 49

vk #7

Thank you for that reference to January seeing USA incidence of covid-19.
Wuhan was the first report to WHO spot not the origin. That point is made by many here and supported by many personal experiences in the USA.

Thanks b but on Bill Gates and his releaseof sub optimal windows software. What makes you confident he would perform better with vaccines. His proposition is to crowd test his rigged virus. NO THANKS.

I would rather seek a plasma boost that contains anti-bodies. You do realise that 80 - 90 percent of the population wont need either in 12 months or so as they will have acquired the antibodies through their inconsequential enounter with covid-19.

Gates wants the governments of the world to compell his vaccine, get their digital certificate and then they can be 'free' to travel etc. Take a read of the unedited Gates-Ted interview.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 5 2020 20:33 utc | 50

The dude who suggested to "take it on the chin" just got the needed blow:

BBC - Coronavirus: PM admitted to hospital over virus symptoms

Posted by: b | Apr 5 2020 20:35 utc | 51

jayc@49said;" That lawmakers had already been briefed regarding expected coronavirus disasters ahead, and so part of the urgency on March 2 was to remove the candidate whose public health platform would find enormous resonance. The current two-party system is resistant and hostile to any reform. The unopposed bi-partisan move by the Congress to fully bail out corrupt banks and corporate interests with no accountability whatsoever represents a hugely consequential move towards a dictatorship led by those interests, if that's not already the case."

Yep,funny how that cov-19 just happened along at a very opportune time, after "event 201"last year.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

Posted by: ben | Apr 5 2020 20:43 utc | 52

Hopehely @ 18 (after B removed a stack of comments):

Ecuador is a poor country and I'd say a lot of if not even most people in Guayaquil (Ecuador's largest city and with a hot humid climate) were already carrying a considerable disease load before COVID-19 arrived. COVID-19 in the main kills people with already weakened immunity systems. Their situation would not have been helped by current President Lenin Moreno overturning previous incumbent Rafael Correa's reforms aimed at reducing social inequality.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 5 2020 20:45 utc | 53

@ 31 frances... i respect your viewpoint.. how would you proceed here then if you were running the usa? i am genuinely curious...

@ 44 juliania... thanks.. nice post that makes me like you more! i am curious juliania how you view the usa's attitude here with covid 19 towards iran, cuba, and venezuala? do you think the usa is acting in any way other then really ignoble?? i'm curious.. thanks..

yeah - boris is back in hospital... i am curious how that will play out for him on a personal level... have to wait and see..

Posted by: james | Apr 5 2020 20:45 utc | 54

@Posted by: juliania | Apr 5 2020 19:55 utc | 44

Juliania, with all due respect, since you sound always such a lovely polite woman, you should consider it is difficult for the people to remain so cheerful and supportive as you do, when they live in a 50m2 apartment without garden or even a balcony yo stay out.

These people find quite difficult even to exercise inside such tiny apartments, not to mention the lack of fresh air, which you can not catch unless appearing a bit through your window.

This is the reality for most of the people in Spain, for example, who have already passed two weeks into mandatory lockdown.

I do not think the people will cop with much more extending lockdown, the government will have to loose some tight if they do not want to have, added to the Coronacrisis, another one of mental health, not to mention other health crisis like increasing strokes due the lack of activity of middle aged people and worsening of other previous chronic conditions which went better with exercise and fresh air. Also the children will go sick without even taking a ray of sun in their skins and retines.

Consider that for people like these, your advice sound almost like those so discouraging famous people from Hollywood and world wide football stars, offering them and pontificating from their huge mansions with huge gardens bigger than the park blow my apartment or inside their jakuzzis like he did Arnold Swartzeneger, for exmaple.

There is a limit for locking down innocent people also, in Spain, at the heights of 26th April, the limit of the third extension of state of alarm, we would have passed a whole month and a half in total lockdown. Enough is enough.

The limit in the lockdown will be in the limit at which previously healthy people start getting a poor health because of it. Once the health system starts to not being overwhelmed by a huge affluence of cases, a progressive opening of normal life, starting with at least one hour out to exercise a bit should be allowed, othewise the people will start revolting.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 5 2020 20:54 utc | 55

b@51

My initial thought was horrible, but once that passed, my next thought was maybe this will snap some people out of the idea that this is a hoax or takeover, because "look one of the people who are orchestrating this just got hit".

Upon further thought, those same people will probably claim it is a fake out to make us buy in. Either with "he's not really sick, but faking it", or "they had to sacrifice one of their own to prod us along". Either way, I don't expect this to change any opinions.

That being said, while I think he is a despicable and immoral person, I hope he recovers. No matter how much I dislike someone I wouldn't wish for their death.

Posted by: David F | Apr 5 2020 20:54 utc | 56

James @ 54:

I have noticed that in our MSM, reporting on how Iran is dealing with COVID-19 has gone very quiet.

The few stats I've seen seem to indicate the Iranians are getting the outbreak under control. They do not have anywhere near the level of casualties that Italy and Spain have. Even the UK has more casualties.

Also Francis may have a point - Sweden is not enforcing a lock-down (as in shutting down businesses and forcing people to work from home) though I believe people there are practising social distancing and have reduced social activities. Whatever COVID-19 stats come out of Sweden should make for useful comparisons with neighbouring countries that do have lock-downs.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 5 2020 20:56 utc | 57

Ref BoJo, how dysfunctional and persona is a political system where a PM can be taken to hospital without having a temporary replacement?

Posted by: Mina | Apr 5 2020 20:57 utc | 58

Just took a walk around a favorite lake.
Did not see another human, but several other mammals and many birds.
7.7 billion humans? Just for a short time. Without hydrocarbons, not a chance.

Posted by: Duncan Idaho | Apr 5 2020 21:02 utc | 59

The neoliberal transformation of the state is also on display with regards to the distribution of medical supplies. The USG is distributing much needed supplies to private commercial entities, which then play off various states, municipalities and hospitals against each other in bidding wars. This is what "public-private partnerships" and "new public management" have led to: a thorough abdication of institutional responsibility and capacity-building by the state, which itself has been devoured internally by market principles.

Without an analysis of capitalism as the central issue in the American crisis we can't understand how things are playing out.

Stephen Walt gets many things right but he has no sense of the political economy of the American crisis.

Why? Because his realist theory is bereft of any sociology and political economy.

Posted by: Prof K | Apr 5 2020 21:06 utc | 60

I would like to add a comment re "lockdown" - which to me is an excessively negative term when the goal is to preserve life. The country where I live, chile, has now been able to hold the rate of increase to 10-15% per day for the best part of a week. This is due almost entirely to quarantine in the areas with most cases and a national curfew from 10PM to 5AM. The rate of increase actually seems to be declining, which seems to indicate that quarantine is helping. Also, in the major grocery stores, employees wear masks and gloves and wipe down surfaces frequently with alcohol. Attention is paid to supply chains, so there are no shortages other than PPEs.
Of course there are always assholes who go out when sick - and no, I don't have all the answers, but co-operation seems to go a long way to the good.

As of today there have been 4471 diagnosed cases with 34 deaths - a very low percentage. Although the first deaths were very elderly people with other illnesses, young people have been affected. As a guess, I would say that the low death rate is due to early and effective treatment. Lamentably, I don't know details, for example whether they are using chloroquine. There are said to be nearly 300 people on ventilators.

The virus came to chile in two ways: one, from wealthy people returning from vacations in italy, france and britland. two; from cruise ships. I don't have a link for this, but it is said that the us commandeered a shipment of PPE items destined for chile from a ship docked in San Diego. What is a fact is that chile gov is trying to organize a military flight direct to china to collect purchased ventilators. The world is getting to see who are the good guys.

Chile has the same problem as NY, Boston etc. with the rich people trying to run to the country. There are road blocks and fines for doing so. One would think that an intelligent person would reason that medical care in the country is limited. Chile just proves a seemingly universal truth - rich people are not necessarily smart people.
I don't do links but here are some sources: www.emol.cl www.latercera.cl www.biobiochile.cl

With thanks to b.

Posted by: Miss Lacy | Apr 5 2020 21:17 utc | 61

I think "lockdown" comes from the prison system here, and I agree it is inappropriate, but it's spread all through institutional life here, e.g. schools, along with armed school cops. Helps the children here understand where they are early in life.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/lockdown

Thank you for the update on Chile.

Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 5 2020 21:30 utc | 62

PS re chile. It's not all roses - not even part roses. Altho the gov has done pretty well with the virus challenge, there
is still a huge amount of damage and destruction from the "manefestations," which included legitimate grievances with an unprecedented amount of looting, arson and destruction. Many seekers for Darwin Awards. How do you improve education if you burn down the campuses? As for countries like ecuador and bolivia which have recently been Neo-Conned - they are fucked. That's the technical term. Cheers.

Posted by: Miss Lacy | Apr 5 2020 21:34 utc | 63

Sweden gives up "herd immunity", "social distancing" to be enforced:

Com número de mortos explodindo, Suécia abandona a "tática Bolsonaro" e irá adotar isolamento social contra coronavírus

Posted by: vk | Apr 5 2020 21:35 utc | 64

@Posted by: Bemildred | Apr 5 2020 21:30 utc | 62

But that fact is that it is literally a lockdown, and even worse, since inmates are allowed to exercise outside for a while daily at least.

At least in Spain no person with a justified cause has been ale to put a foot outside since 15th March.

This is a general mandate for the whole country, not only most affected areas like Madrid.

I am starting considering it a bit way excesive, since an end to this is not seen by the average folk.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 5 2020 21:37 utc | 65

@Posted by: Miss Lacy | Apr 5 2020 21:17 utc | 61

I find a shame that Piñera took advantage of the pandemic to institute a curfew.

It seems, for what you say, that he was late to forbid travels from and to the country, especially by wealthy people, who are mostly those supporting his presidency, but he is one of the most benefitted by the pandemic, as he took out with the social outbreak he had previosuly in the streets....

The profiteers in Chile, along with those intending another incursion in Venezuela, are some of the reasons, amongst many others, why I think this all was prepared in advance.

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 5 2020 21:45 utc | 66

Now wait until the Republicans find out that it is their voters who will die in much larger numbers than those who vote for Democrats:
The obvious counter is that people in urban areas make more frequent and less necessary trips than those in country areas. They will remain much higher risk whatever.

When b first came out with his suppression diagrams, the choice between more deaths soon and fewer deaths over a period 2 or 3 times as long was obvious.
Since then others have tried a new diagram where peak curve and shallow curve both finish at the same time. This of course is not a genuine option, yet b seems to have accepted a short shallow curve as a genuine option.

Truth is that a long shallow curve that destroys the health system's ability to promote ordinary good health plus a really cap economy is going to kill far more people than a peak curve (and either way most deaths with be "covid-present" rather than "covid-caused").

My advice - do your bit for society - go out there without a mask.

Posted by: Michael Droy | Apr 5 2020 21:58 utc | 67

@james

The thing with the billionaires is that they have demanded and benefitted from the hollowing out of the state in the neoliberal period, and then they exploit moments of state crisis to reassert their "importance" (and our dependence on them).

It's a vicious circle, and it's quasi feudal.

Posted by: Prof K | Apr 5 2020 21:58 utc | 68

Ref BoJo, how dysfunctional and persona is a political system where a PM can be taken to hospital without having a temporary replacement?

Posted by: Mina | Apr 5 2020 20:57 utc | 58

He does. It's Dominic Raab. A worse ideological zxtremist it is difficult to imagine.

Posted by: Laguerre | Apr 5 2020 22:18 utc | 69

@ 57 jen..

i think everyone is watching the experiment in sweden, but i am curious how much testing they are doing??? it seems to me this is an important consideration.. here in canada quebec is doing a lot of testing and they have about 1/2 the cases in canada.. on the other hand here in bc they are only testing those in the health profession and those who are showing some obvious symptons... thus bc rate has stayed fairly flat, while quebecs number continue to go up.. i do believe china and south korea did a lot of testing and placed quarantine on those for a length of time, as opposed to a mass type of ''lockdown''.... i also agree the term lockdown isn't a great word here it is as ms lacy says - being thoughtful towards others.. but it is making it hard for those who live in cities i suspect.. i live in a much smaller community and typically we are not having to rub elbows with many people.. i see few people wearing masks when i go out and we are allowed to go out.. however people who i do see are very respectful and are keeping an approx 2 meter distance..

at any rate, i have been following swedens numbers and although they are going up, it is fairly slow which is good.. so my question how much testing are they doing? if it is more like b.c. and less like quebec, then i am not sure how relevant the numbers are... maybe c1ue or someone else is following this more closely and knows?

@ prof k... yes - quasi feudal like the monarchy, clown prince and etc. etc... i am not down with it! cheers...

Posted by: james | Apr 5 2020 22:21 utc | 70

Gov't Alert: If You See Something, Say Something

From time to time I take note of the seeming delusion of pundits to see the burning forest for the charred political trees.

There is a consistent disinclination to connect dots. Maybe it's dangerous to do so? But will our dumbed-down, distracted public ever connect the dots for themselves? Put another way: can we safely assume that all moa readers already know the political history that allows them to connect the dots for themselves?

Anyway, I don't mean any disrespect or to single anyone out but these two recent comments caught my cynical eye as examples:

• CJ Hopkins who rages: "Americans did this[!!] ... [elected a terrible leader: Trump]"

  Link curtesy of uncle tungsten Open Thread @101

• ADKC Week in Review @37:

  Sanders gave up against Clinton in 2016 and he gave up against Biden (?!?!) in 2020. The pandemic gave Sanders a third opportunity; opportunities are rare and you rarely get one, let alone three, but Sanders is throwing it all away (again). Sanders forgets that he is not where he is because of the Democratic Party, he is there because American people want real change. What is Sanders trying to do? Destroy his message, his reputation and the hope people placed in Sanders? Spend the rest of his life as a derided figure?

Hillary vs. Trump was not a real choice, was it? But Hopkins wants to blame the victim.

Sanders unwillingness to confront the establishment is rather convenient for the establishment, isn't it? How can anyone talk of Sanders at this point and not mention "sheepdog"?

We see writers of all kinds, in MSM and Alt-M, that can't bear to entertain the notion that elections are rigged and top political people are involved in the rigging.

Until the people see things as they are, they will always lose.

My advice, as always: Form and join Movements. Don't fall for divisive games like identity politics, fear-mongering, and the entertaining void of Party and personalities. And we aware of EMPIRE imperatives that drive TPTB. EMPIRE is the 800-lib gorilla in the room that politicians and mainstream pundits try hard to ignore.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 5 2020 22:23 utc | 71

Posted by: Mina | Apr 5 2020 20:57 utc | 58

"Ref BoJo, how dysfunctional and persona is a political system where a PM can be taken to hospital without having a temporary replacement?"

Sputnik reported BoJo is on ventilator while His pregnant girlfriend Carrie Symonds has also contracted the virus.

Wondering which ventilator he's using, American, German or the Chinese makes...?

"Queen Elizabeth Makes Rare Televised Address amid Coronavirus Pandemic: 'We Will Meet Again'"

Where? I dun wants to insinuate fake news - sound or evils though but cannot discount BoJo gonna to meet his maker? He should bring along his frens Trump and the 5eyes too!

Posted by: JC | Apr 5 2020 22:25 utc | 72

Jen #57

Whatever COVID-19 stats come out of Sweden should make for useful comparisons with neighbouring countries that do have lock-downs.

Thanks for that as the Sweden approach will become an invaluable contrast. Do you know what the mask wearing protocols are in Sweden? Knowing the best response to balance between viral transmission and economic activity is a mighty important piece of information.

I will be interested in finding a comparative reliable data set across many months for pneumonia deaths and COVID deaths. I trust they will not be indiscriminately bundled as all COVID but somehow I suspect that will be the case.

Thanks b for the sweeping operations. Shall we refer to you as Chief Broom for this post as it sure resembles a cuckoos nest at times :-)

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 5 2020 22:28 utc | 73

It's not just Johnson--Putin apparently has it, too. Officially he is just "working remotely," but there are only so many reasons why he would do that.

https://sputniknews.com/russia/202004051078844329-putin-to-cut-down-personal-contacts-work-remotely-for-week/

Posted by: Timothy Hagios | Apr 5 2020 22:29 utc | 74

b @51

Not a good idea to "Take it on the chin" when one is a blowhard dilettante with a glass jaw.

Posted by: William Gruff | Apr 5 2020 22:30 utc | 75

Mina #58

A temporary replacement for Boris the Menace???

I recommend George Galloway. Even if only for a one month 🤯

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 5 2020 22:33 utc | 76

I suspected BoJo had a bad prognosis when past day read he had still fever...

Posted by: H.Schmatz | Apr 5 2020 22:37 utc | 77

"Bill Gates has major experience with viruses since Windows 3.1."

Oh, I liked that one. As a long-time Linux user (this is being posted from openSUSE 15.1) and a previous IT support consultant, I've hated Windows for the last twenty years (I started on Windows 98). It's not even so much the insecurity as the general unreliability and bloat of Windows as an OS. Windows 10 is allegedly the best so far, but since I don't spend a lot of time with it, I can't confirm that.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 5 2020 22:42 utc | 78

From what I just read it looks like Sweden is about to change course.

"Sten Linnarsson, a professor at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute, said the concern was that “there is really a lack of scientific evidence being put forward for these policies”. He compared the approach to letting a kitchen fire burn but intending to put it out later: “The danger, of course, is that it burns the whole house down.”"
From the Guardian

Posted by: David F | Apr 5 2020 22:42 utc | 79

"enlightened capitalists -- Bill Gates" People who say that just don't know this guy's history. His "foundation" is simply a stock laundering mechanism. It was cited years ago by the government for putting out so little of its funds that it barely qualified under US law.

It's a scam. You take the billions of dollars worth of stock you can't sell in large quantities to convert to cash due to laws about that and you "donate" it to a foundation - run by your father. Then the foundation sells the stock and uses it to buy control of companies you want to invest in.

It's about power, not charity.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 5 2020 22:47 utc | 80

Jackrabbit #72

Jimmy Dore is kicking Sanders arse around the stage over the last few days for caving in on everything.
The King of Vermont has no clothes left.
Neither does the Queen of Hawaii for that matter. Silent on the Joe groper issue from what I see.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 5 2020 22:52 utc | 81

Posted by: gm | Apr 5 2020 17:35 utc | 29 The B&M Gates Foundation was likely originally set up with some good intentions (to combat malaria and other Third World diseases), but probably mainly as a legal vehicle to shield some of his mega-wealth.

Exactly. I read about that years ago as I indicated in my above post.

"But then, after Gates got snared, perhaps in 201? at one or more of the Intel community's "Epstein pedo-trap" blackmail factories, he became their bitch-tool for evermore."

I don't know that Gates is a pedo. I don't think he needs to be to explain his behavior. He's simply *always* been known as a greedy S.O.B. who spent his time in college taking money from his friends in poker games. His father is a big time lawyer, so you can imagine where he got his greed genes.

Not that greed per se bothers me - but I dislike greedy people who also produce crap products like Windows.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 5 2020 22:59 utc | 82

Posted by: Michael Droy | Apr 5 2020 21:58 utc | 67

"My advice - do your bit for society - go out there without a mask."

Sound good to me you go and be a hero!

Mr. b sorrie again double (75& &76) postings 18-yr old laptop WinXp Installed.

Posted by: JC | Apr 5 2020 23:00 utc | 83

David F #82

From what I just read it looks like Sweden is about to change course.

"Sten Linnarsson, a professor at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute, said the concern was that “there is really a lack of scientific evidence being put forward for these policies”. He compared the approach to letting a kitchen fire burn but intending to put it out later: “The danger, of course, is that it burns the whole house down.”"

That is a stupid metaphor for a scientist to use. Especially when 80 - 90 percent of the populace will have an inconsequential encounter with this disease. They may not encounter it at all in the short term if they take simple precautions.

But then it was reprinted in the grauniad so it gets a modicum of stupid editors around it to give it praise. Remember Porton Down and Salisbury and Scripals etc etc.

Sweden may well change course as the methodology of response and treatment is refined and shared. So may others. Time will tell. Lets just hope they collect and retain their data unlike the USA that has no uniform or credible state approach let alone trustworthy centre for disease control.

Posted by: uncle tungsten | Apr 5 2020 23:04 utc | 84

Morning Star's editorial about Labour's last leadership elections:

Starmer's win is a defeat, but our movement is not beaten

Posted by: vk | Apr 5 2020 23:10 utc | 85

On Boris Johnson and him taking himself ill with covid: two things about him come immediately to mind. First, he fancies himself an incarnation of Winston Churchill, secondly he is known for being work-shy. Until proven otherwise, for me this is a Churchill-style PR stunt of being down in the trenches with the common people, and as a bonus a splendid excuse to abscond from the office for a while.

Posted by: Leser | Apr 5 2020 23:13 utc | 86

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Apr 5 2020 22:23 utc | 72 We see writers of all kinds, in MSM and Alt-M, that can't bear to entertain the notion that elections are rigged and top political people are involved in the rigging. Until the people see things as they are, they will always lose.

Got that absolutely right.

Except for one thing: People will never see things as they are.

"My advice, as always: Form and join Movements. Don't fall for divisive games like identity politics, fear-mongering, and the entertaining void of Party and personalities. "

But that's *exactly* what you get in *movements.* *All movements.* The history of anarchism itself is proof of that - more divisive than any other political movement.

Human nature, folks...

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 5 2020 23:13 utc | 87

From NBC San Francisco:

Sunday, April 5

Law enforcement agencies are moving away from an educational approach to social distancing rules and are beginning to enforce them, as well as the stay at home order. Misdemeanor citations have begun being issued, especially in beach towns.

The city of Benicia closed a number of parking lots due to people gathering there and not keeping social distance.

The parking lots closed include Matthew Turner Shipyard and Alvarez Ninth Street Park, as well as a parking lot on First Street.

At San Francisco's Laguna Honda Hospital, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases continues to grow with a total of 14 people infected. The total includes 11 staff members and three residents.

Also in San Francisco, city officials announced the Palace of Fine Arts will be used as a temporary shelter in response to the pandemic and it will house 162 people at capacity.

My note: that last - wow, a whole 162 people - out of 17,000... More proof the city has zero clue how to deal with the impact on the homeless.

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 5 2020 23:17 utc | 88

A couple of strange occurrences in the last couple of days, but little information forthcoming. First, much mocking of the Venezuelan Navy for having lost one of their ships after supposedly ramming and ice breaking cruise ship that again, supposedly was drifting without power while doing engine maintenance in the middle of the night. Only Western media reported on it.

And then there is rumour of a coup in Brazil. But little information forthcoming.

Posted by: Victor | Apr 5 2020 23:18 utc | 89

uncle tungsten | Apr 5 2020 23:04 utc | 87

It wasnt my intention to vouch for the guardian, someone up thread posted something about sweden changing course but it was from brazil and I couldnt read it. This article is what came up in a google search.

Did you read the article? Somewhere around 2000 scientists signed a letter saying the current policy was stupid, dangerous and showing distressing signs of failure. The tone of the article made it sound as if a change of course was going to happen very soon, not if we get new information, but more of a tone of, we probably made the wrong choice and we need to reverse course.

Posted by: David F | Apr 5 2020 23:21 utc | 90

@Ben, 52

Another coincidence was Crimson Contagion which ran January to August 2019. This was an exercise to estimate how federal agencies would handle a pandemic caused by a coronavirus originating in China. When I read about Crimson Contagion, Pompeo's statement that "this is a live exercise" made sense.

Posted by: cirsium | Apr 5 2020 23:21 utc | 91

Not at all surprising if true...based on the behavior I see in my building here in San Francisco which has a high proportion of blacks and what I see on the streets...

In Chicago, 70% of COVID-19 Deaths Are Black
https://tinyurl.com/uhfmajd

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 5 2020 23:23 utc | 92

@William Gruff #32
You're still on answering the question: if nCOV started much earlier, why are the exponential curves only showing up now?

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 5 2020 23:24 utc | 93

How the military treats "our heroes"...

Navy Captain Removed From Carrier Tests Positive for Covid-19
https://tinyurl.com/wqefnoo

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 5 2020 23:25 utc | 94

Another "I'm not surprised if true"...

Big Oil is using the coronavirus pandemic to push through the Keystone XL pipeline
https://tinyurl.com/uhx4nc8

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 5 2020 23:27 utc | 95

@james #71
I've been watching the actual reported numbers - leaving the trend analysis to others like Willis Eschenbach at wattsupwiththat.com.
He has been including Sweden's mortality trend rates with all the major European/US countries - and Sweden's behavior isn't significantly different than the other European nations or the US.
As for testing: Sweden reported 36,900 tests on March 31. They're testing more than anyone except the Germans, US and South Korea.
You can see the Eschenbach graph Willis Eschenbach COVID-19 graphs
From a mortality/10M perspective: Sweden is at 437 nCOV mortality per 10M population.
Compare this to Italy: 2613; Spain: 2723; France: 1240; Belgium: 1269; Netherlands: 1039; UK: 903; US: 293; New York: 2139; US w/o NY: 176; Germany: 195.
From Willis' graph, the above numbers should be considered with the likelihood that the nCOV situation in Sweden is likely still relatively early.

Posted by: c1ue | Apr 5 2020 23:34 utc | 96

A very fascinating description of what the heart and lungs do and what COVID-19 does to them and how people with pulmonary hypertension have to deal with their disease...

COVID-19 through the eyes of a Pulmonary Hypertension Patient.
https://tinyurl.com/smfofmx

Take special note of the preventative measures she is taking - because she's been there in an ICU for her condition and simply can't afford to get infected...

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 5 2020 23:34 utc | 97

The deniers are going to absolutely *love* this piece... It's absolutely going to enrage them. I have no idea whether the scientists cited are correct or not. YMMV. But if they are...we're in deep shit...

COVID-19 Pandemic Has Only Just Begun
https://tinyurl.com/unnvyc6

Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Apr 5 2020 23:38 utc | 98

Looks like there's a government hiding the dead... and it's not China's:

Official Counts Understate the U.S. Death Toll

Posted by: vk | Apr 5 2020 23:39 utc | 99

David F @ 82, Uncle Tungsten @ 87:

The issue may well be that larger cities like Stockholm, maybe also Goteborg and Malmo which may have considerable refugee populations and those refugees and other immigrant populations living close together in ghettoes, will have higher death rates from COVID-19 compared to smaller cities, towns and communities in Sweden. (I believe Malmo is also linked to Denmark by road.) In such a situation the larger cities and especially those city suburbs and communities most at risk from COVID-19 should be under lockdown. This would have to be handled carefully by the relevant city authorities to avoid accusations of racial / ethnic and religious targeting and discrimination from the usual identity-politics crowds.

Posted by: Jen | Apr 5 2020 23:44 utc | 100